智利化工礦業 (SQM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the SQM first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 SQM 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to the Investor Relations Officer, Isabel Bendeck. The floor is yours.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係官伊莎貝爾·本德克 (Isabel Bendeck)。現在輪到你了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining SQM earnings conference call for the first-quarter 2025. This conference call will be recorded and is being webcast live. Our earnings press release and presentation with a summary of the results have been uploaded at our website, where you can also find a link to the webcast.

謝謝您，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 SQM 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議將會錄音並進行網路直播。我們的收益新聞稿和簡報以及結果摘要已上傳到我們的網站，您也可以在那裡找到網路廣播的連結。

Today's figures include CEO; Ricardo Ramos, CFO, Gerardo IIlanes; Carlos Diaz, CEO of Lithium Chile division; Pablo Altimiras, CEO of Iodine and Plant Nutrition division; Andres Fontannaz, Commercial Vice President of International Lithium Division; Felipe Smith, Commercial Vice President of Lithium Chile Division; Pablo Hernandez, Vice President of Strategy and Development of Lithium Chile division; and Juan Pablo Bellolio, Commercial Vice President of Ireland and Industrial Chemicals.

今天的嘉賓包括執行長 Ricardo Ramos、財務長 Gerardo IIlanes、智利鋰業分部執行長 Carlos Diaz、碘和植物營養分部執行長 Pablo Altimiras、國際鋰業分部商務副總裁 Andres Fontannaz、智利鋰業分部商務副總裁 Felipe Smith、智利鋰業分部策略和發展副總裁 Pablo Hernandez 以及愛爾蘭和工業化學品總裁和愛爾蘭和工業化學品總裁。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that statements made in this conference call regarding our business outlook, future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses, and other financial items, along with expected cost synergies and product or service line growth, are considered forward-looking statements under the Federal Securities Laws. These statements are not historical facts and may be subject to changes due to new information, future developments, or other factors. We assume no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. For a complete forward-looking statement, please refer to our earnings press release and presentation.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中關於我們的業務前景、未來經濟表現、預期盈利能力、收入、支出和其他財務項目以及預期的成本協同效應和產品或服務線增長的陳述，根據聯邦證券法均被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並非歷史事實，可能會因新資訊、未來發展或其他因素而改變。除非法律要求，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。如需完整的前瞻性聲明，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿和簡報。

I am now leaving you with our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Ricardo Ramos.

現在我將與我們的執行長里卡多·拉莫斯先生一起離開。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report that SQM began 2025 with solid operational and commercial performance. In the first quarter, we achieved the highest first quarter lithium sales volumes in our company's history, driven by a 20% year-on-year increase. This growth reflects sustained strong demand, particularly from electric vehicles market in China and Europe as well as growing adoption of energy storage systems worldwide.

謝謝。大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告，SQM 在 2025 年伊始就取得了穩健的營運和商業績效。第一季度，我們實現了公司史上最高的第一季鋰銷量，年增20%。這一成長反映了持續強勁的需求，特別是來自中國和歐洲的電動車市場，以及全球日益普及的能源儲存系統。

Lithium prices, on the other hand, were relatively stable during the first-quarter 2025. But over the past few weeks, we have seen a decline in prices that we don't think is sustainable. In the industry, we was already showing negative results. In any case, as a result of this, our average realized prices for the second-quarter 2025 should be lower than the levels since in the first quarter.

另一方面，2025 年第一季鋰價相對穩定。但在過去幾週，我們看到價格下跌，我們認為這種下跌是不可持續的。在行業中，我們已經顯示出負面結果。無論如何，由於這個原因，我們 2025 年第二季的平均實現價格應該低於第一季以來的水平。

In Australia, the production of spodumene concentrate at Mount Holland is progressing well, and the commissioning of the Kiana refinery is also moving forward with the expectation to see first product in the coming months. In Chile, we continue working on our capacity expansions to reach capacity to 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 100,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide.

在澳大利亞，Mount Holland 的鋰輝石精礦生產進展順利，Kiana 煉油廠的調試也在推進中，預計在未來幾個月內產出第一批產品。在智利，我們繼續致力於擴大產能，使碳酸鋰產能達到 24 萬公噸，而氫氧化鋰產能達到 10 萬公噸。

Moving to our iodine business, we are pleased with another strong quarter. Prices have reached a record average amidst tight supply and steady demand, primarily driven by the x-ray contrast media application. Our seawater pipeline construction is advancing rapidly and will be key to expanding production capacity. In the meantime, we are investing in operational efficiencies to respond to customer needs and optimize output. In specialty plant nutrition, sales volumes grew at a healthy pace.

談到我們的碘業務，我們對又一個強勁的季度感到高興。在供應緊張、需求穩定的情況下，價格已達到創紀錄的平均水平，這主要受到 X 光造影劑應用的推動。我們的海水管道建設正在快速推進，將成為擴大產能的關鍵。同時，我們正在投資提高營運效率，以滿足客戶需求並優化產出。在特種植物營養領域，銷售量維持健康成長。

We also an upward trend in prices early in this year mainly due to strong demand for potassium chloride and some supply disruptions. Market dynamics remain favorable across Latin America, the US, and Europe. In our potassium business, as anticipated, volumes were significantly lower compared to the same period last year. This reflects our strategy to reduce potassium production to give priority to high lithium content brands and focus on the production of more value-added products within our SPN business lines.

我們也發現今年年初價格呈現上漲趨勢，主要原因是氯化鉀需求強勁且供應中斷。拉丁美洲、美國和歐洲的市場動態仍然良好。正如預期的那樣，我們的鉀業務銷售與去年同期相比大幅下降。這體現了我們減少鉀產量、優先考慮高鋰含量品牌並專注於在 SPN 業務線內生產更多附加價值產品的策略。

To summarize, SQM delivered strong commercial results in the first quarter despite a complex pricing environment. Our long-term fundamentals remain intact. We are confident in our strategy, our investment in capacity and innovation, and our commitment to sustainable, high-quality growth. Thank you a lot.

總而言之，儘管定價環境複雜，SQM 在第一季仍取得了強勁的商業業績。我們的長期基本面依然完好。我們對我們的策略、對產能和創新的投資以及對可持續高品質成長的承諾充滿信心。非常感謝。

Operator, we can now move to Q&A.

接線員，我們現在可以進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Isaacson, Scotia Bank.

（操作員指示） 加拿大豐業銀行 (Scotia Bank) 的 Ben Isaacson。

Three questions. First one, just a very straightforward, simple question. You talked about the ASP in Q2 being a little bit lower than in Q1. Do you expect that on an operating cash flow basis, you will be breakeven or positive per metric ton in lithium in Q2?

三個問題。第一個問題，非常直接、簡單。您說第二季的平均售價比第一季略低。您是否預計，以營運現金流為基礎，第二季鋰的每公噸利潤將達到損益兩平或正值？

We are far from breakeven costs. We were not expecting to be close to breakeven and significantly above that in the second quarter this year and in the upcoming quarters. We believe we are one of the lowest cost producers. So we are far from that position.

我們距離損益平衡成本還很遠。我們並沒有預期今年第二季和未來幾季的獲利能夠接近平衡，而且獲利水準還會大幅高於這一水準。我們相信我們是成本最低的生產商之一。所以我們距離那個位置還很遠。

Perfect. Perfect. And then another question for you, Ricardo. Lithium prices are obviously lower than a lot of people expected this year. Your growth plans haven't changed. And so what the plug is now going to mean is less operating cash flow to fund that CapEx growth and a greater reliance on accessing capital markets.

完美的。完美的。我還想問你一個問題，里卡多。今年鋰價明顯低於許多人的預期。您的成長計畫沒有改變。因此，現在的堵塞意味著更少的營運現金流來資助資本支出的成長，以及對資本市場的更大依賴。

Can you talk about how your mind may or may not be changing in terms of capital structure or funding future projects now that lithium is coming in a little lower than expected?

鑑於鋰的價格略低於預期，您能否談談您在資本結構或未來專案融資方面的想法可能會或可能不會改變？

Well, just before answering your question, and, of course, we have other business lines and products are doing quite well. So the capacity to generate cash that the company has is quite strong. On top of that, we have a strong balance sheet. We have a track record of having a very strong balance sheet, and we plan to continue having a strong balance sheet.

好吧，在回答你的問題之前，當然，我們其他業務線和產品的表現都相當不錯。因此該公司的現金產生能力相當強。最重要的是，我們擁有強勁的資產負債表。我們的資產負債表一直非常強勁，我們計劃繼續保持強勁的資產負債表。

So we are constantly assessing all the projects that we have on our portfolio, of course, understanding what is happening in the market. But so far, the financial or the balance sheet has not been a constraint, and we don't expect it will be a constraint in the future either.

因此，我們不斷評估我們投資組合中的所有項目，當然，了解市場正在發生的事情。但到目前為止，財務或資產負債表還沒有成為限制因素，我們預期未來也不會成為限制因素。

Okay. And then just very last one, Ricardo, maybe for you. we're hearing a lot of noise and politics out of Chile right now and kind of a fight about the outcome and the future of the Codelco JV. I didn't understand -- I don't understand why this is even a debate or even being brought up. I thought this is a signed agreement and you're just kind of dotting the eyes and crossing the Ts and then it will be effective Jan 1.

好的。然後是最後一個問題，里卡多，也許對你來說。我們現在聽到智利有很多噪音和政治聲音，以及關於 Codelco 合資企業的結果和未來的爭論。我不明白——我不明白為什麼這會是一場辯論，甚至被提出來。我以為這是一份簽署的協議，你只需稍微打個勾，然後它就會在 1 月 1 日生效。

Can you talk about why is this even a debate right now in Chile? And what are the different paths forward?

你能談談為什麼智利現在還對此進行爭論嗎？前進的道路有哪些不同？

Okay. I mean, as you say at the beginning, it's a lot of noise. And I think that's the perfect word to describe what we were known. A lot of noise when you start digging into the numbers, it's a great deal. It's a great deal for the country.

好的。我的意思是，正如你一開始所說的，噪音很大。我認為這個詞最能描述我們的知名度。當你開始深入研究這些數字時，你會發現很多噪音，這是一筆很棒的交易。這對國家來說是一件大事。

It's a great deal for the region, for the communities, for Codelco, it means something very good. Sometimes when you are in an election year, you have a lot of noise from everything.

這對該地區、對社區、對 Codelco 來說都是一件大事，意義非凡。有時，當你處於選舉年時，你會聽到各種各樣的噪音。

It's not the only noise in Chile, if you have a Chile newspaper, we have a lot of different noises. Everywhere, it means an election year, you always have different discussions. But what is the real fact? The fact is that we are advancing according to our original plan with Codelco, working very hard. We are now in the end of the process, not us, is in the end of the process of the consultation with the towns near the operations that's being carried out by Corfo.

這不是智利唯一的聲音，如果你有一份智利報紙，你會發現我們有很多不同的聲音。無論在哪裡，這都意味著選舉年，你總是會有不同的討論。但事實到底是什麼呢？事實上，我們正​​按照與Codelco的原計劃努力推進。現在，這個過程已經接近尾聲，不是我們，而是 Corfo 正在與行動週邊城鎮進行的磋商過程已經接近尾聲。

And finally, we are -- we submit all the documents required by the regulatory authorities of free competition in China. Therefore, we think that the timeframe for the transaction to be finally executed will be during the second half of this year. No changes about that. And again, you will have -- it is a big transaction.

最後，我們提交了中國自由競爭監管機構要求的所有文件。因此我們認為該交易最終執行的時間將在今年下半年。對此沒有改變。再說一次，這是一筆大交易。

Chile is a small country, and these kind of transactions are important in a country where you have not many things going on, but at the end, it's just noise. I don't foresee any real reason or fundamentals to have any debate about the transaction.

智利是一個小國，這種交易對一個沒有太多事情發生的國家來說很重要，但最終只是噪音而已。我預見不到任何真正的理由或基本原理來引發有關該交易的爭論。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets)。

I'll ask my questions one by one as well. Team, I noticed in this slide deck in this release that you maintain your view that lithium demand will grow 17% globally as a market this year, but you no longer show your commentary from a few months ago, you think that SQM sales themselves for lithium will grow about 15% year over year. Can you maintain that you will grow 15% sales this year? And if not, what's your new number?

我也會逐一提出我的問題。團隊，我注意到在本次發布的幻燈片中，您堅持認為今年全球鋰需求將增長 17%，但您不再展示幾個月前的評論，您認為 SQM 自身的鋰銷售額將同比增長約 15%。你能保證今年的銷售額成長 15% 嗎？如果沒有，您的新號碼是多少？

Yes. Hello, Joel. This is Felipe Smith. Look, considering the current market conditions, with uncertainty derived from geopolitical and trade tensions, we have not really updated our annual volume forecast for 2025. However, regarding Q2, I can comment that we expect a similar or slightly lower volume versus the first quarter.

是的。你好，喬爾。這是費利佩史密斯。考慮到當前的市場狀況，以及地緣政治和貿易緊張局勢帶來的不確定性，我們還沒有真正更新 2025 年的年度銷售預測。然而，關於第二季度，我可以說，我們預計交易量與第一季相比將相似或略低。

Okay. Second question would be -- there has been some commentary in the market as prices in China have decreased a lot. You sell product to China. Obviously, you've got some contracts, I believe, with floors. There's some discussion about customers fighting back and saying spot prices are below floors, we want to pay lower prices.

好的。第二個問題是──由於中國的價格大幅下降，市場上出現了一些評論。您將產品賣到中國。顯然，我相信你有一些帶有樓層的合約。有討論稱，客戶反擊稱現貨價格低於底價，我們想支付更低的價格。

Can you comment on that dynamic and how you are dealing with it?

您能否評論一下這種動態以及您如何處理它？

Yeah, Joe. I would like to start saying that we have more than 200 customers worldwide. Each of these customers have a different type of price mechanism --

是的，喬。首先我想說的是，我們在全球有 200 多個客戶。每個客戶都有不同類型的價格機制--

You're talking about typically in China, I know. Just China, I know. If you could talk about China, I'd really appreciate it. I know you have lots of customers different qualities, different products, but maybe just in China specifically, it would be very helpful.

我知道，您說的是中國的典型情況。我知道的只有中國。如果您能談談中國，我將非常感激。我知道你們有很多客戶，他們有不同的品質，不同的產品，但也許只是在中國，這會非常有幫助。

Yeah, what I want to say and what I want to highlight is that with each customer, and this happens in China also, with each customer, we have different price mechanism and conditions that are all confidential. And I cannot comment. So I would ask you to please understand that I will not go into any specifics about that.

是的，我想說的和我想強調的是，對於每個客戶，這也發生在中國，對於每個客戶，我們都有不同的價格機制和條件，這些都是保密的。我無法發表評論。因此請您瞭解，我不會對此進行任何具體說明。

Okay. And just finally, just follow up on Ben's question a little bit, but I think that SQM's philosophical demeanor has been, hey, we're going to double our production over the next seven years because, hey, global demand is growing 3 times, so we're just growing double our own capacity. So there you go, we're not really adding to market.

好的。最後，稍微回答一下 Ben 的問題，我認為 SQM 的理念是，我們將在未來七年內將產量翻一番，因為全球需求增加了 3 倍，所以我們自己的產能也會增加一倍。所以你看，我們其實並沒有增加市場。

But when I look at your commentary, and you talk about the market's oversupplied, the market has probably caught by surprise how weak it is. As stewards of capital here, do you not have to think about what is the right amount of capacity to add when it seems like there's a lot going on in this market that maybe is not easily visible or understood?

但當我看到您的評論，看到您談到市場供應過剩時，我可能對市場的疲軟程度感到驚訝。作為資本的管理者，當這個市場上發生了很多事情，而這些事情可能不容易被看到或理解時，您是否必須考慮增加多少容量才合適？

This is Carlos Diaz, CEO of Lithium Division in Chile. Yeah, we're still working on this final capacity. We're the leader of production of lithium in the world. It means that we have the lowest cost in the industry. And we continue with our program to expand the capacity in Chile to produce more in surface related to convert in China. It has been a successful business for us.

我是智利鋰業部門的執行長卡洛斯·迪亞茲。是的，我們仍在努力實現最終產能。我們是世界鋰生產的領導者。這意味著我們的成本是業界最低的。我們將繼續執行擴大智利產能的計劃，以生產更多可用於中國轉換的表面材料。對我們來說，這是一次成功的事業。

So we are really confident about the demand, and we feel confident that we will do -- keeping expanding our capacity. So we don't see an issue there.

因此，我們對需求非常有信心，我們有信心繼續擴大我們的產能。所以我們認為那裡不存在問題。

Sorry, just one more for me. I get your confident on demands, but it seems like you're not -- no one in the industry is confident on supply, and you didn't raise some of your own commentary in this quarter. So don't you get worried that your view on supply could be wrong?

抱歉，我只能再說一句。我知道您對需求很有信心，但似乎您不是——業內沒有人對供應有信心，而且您在本季度也沒有提出自己的一些評論。那麼，您不擔心您對供應的看法可能是錯誤的嗎？

Yeah. We know that we had a number of supply, but I said we know there is a chart, and we were confident in the long term the kind of oversupply is going to disappear, and we have a good position to supply in this time, what I said before, we are the leader. We are the lowest cost producer in the industry.

是的。我們知道我們有大量供應，但我說我們知道有一張圖表，我們相信從長遠來看這種供應過剩的現象將會消失，而且我們在這次供應方面處於有利地位，正如我之前所說的，我們是領導者。我們是業內成本最低的生產商。

Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.

科琳‧布蘭查德，德意志銀行。

The first question would be on the Mount Holland. We saw in a recent presentation from Wesfarmers that they decreased their volume guidance by 9% or 10%. So I wanted to see what your view here is? And how do you think volume would be for '25 and going into '26?

第一個問題是關於荷蘭山的。我們在 Wesfarmers 最近的一次演示中看到，他們將產量預期降低了 9% 或 10%。所以我想看看您對此的看法是什麼？您認為 25 年和 26 年的銷售量會如何？

This is Andres Fontannaz from SQM International Lithium. You need to be careful with what Wesfarmers reported because they follow a fiscal year. Our guidance -- Anyway, our guidance for this calendar year for SQM share is between 150,000 to 180,000 tons, which is around 10,000 tons lower than our range provided in November last year.

我是 SQM International Lithium 的 Andres Fontannaz。您需要謹慎對待 Wesfarmers 的報告，因為他們遵循的是財政年度。我們的指導——無論如何，我們對今年 SQM 份額的指導是在 150,000 至 180,000 噸之間，比我們去年 11 月提供的範圍低約 10,000 噸。

So -- and this revision is primarily due to the impact of bushfires and limited equipment availability. So as you know, during January, we were impacted by a regional bushfire in the surroundings of the mine and was a significant event in the region. Tens of thousand hectares were affected. But this kind of risk are the ones that you are prepared. So starting from the design of the plant to the implementation of procedures to having established and trainee management scenario, thanks to all of that, we can say that nobody was hurt, and we are extremely proud of the performance of the team and appreciative of (inaudible) team, especially about the reaction and also that was recognized by the authorities in Western Australia. So that is what we can comment about production for 2025.

所以——這次修改主要是由於叢林大火和設備供應有限的影響。如您所知，一月份，我們受到了礦場周圍區域性叢林大火的影響，這對該地區來說是一件重大事件。數萬公頃土地受災。但這種風險是需要你做好準備的。因此，從工廠的設計到程序的實施，再到建立和培訓管理方案，由於這一切，我們可以說沒有人受傷，我們為團隊的表現感到非常自豪，並感謝（聽不清）團隊，特別是對反應以及西澳大利亞當局的認可。這是我們對 2025 年產量的評論。

And then a second question. Can you please remind us the dividend policy? I think we're getting some questions about whether you're going to restart doing quarterly dividend or only annual. So just if you can comment on policy -- dividend policy and the cadence of it.

然後是第二個問題。您能提醒我們一下股利政策嗎？我想我們會問一些問題，關於您是否要重新開始發放季度股息或僅發放年度股息。因此，如果您能對政策——股息政策及其節奏發表評論的話。

This is Gerardo. The dividend policy that was approved by the Board and presented to the shareholders, established that the company will distribute 30% of its net income of 2025. The dividend policy also established or according to the law in Chile that dividend has to be paid or has to be approved by shareholders in the ordinary shareholders meeting that is scheduled to happen in April next year. Companies can pay interim dividends during the year. Sometimes in the past, we SQM, we have paid interim dividends.

這是傑拉爾多。董事會批准並提交給股東的股利政策規定，公司將分配2025年淨收入的30%。股利政策還規定，根據智利法律，股利必須支付或必須由定於明年 4 月舉行的普通股東大會上的股東批准。公司可以在年內派發中期股利。過去，我們 SQM 有時會支付中期股利。

But at this moment, we are not considering these payments at least for the first quarter, and that will be assessed in the future. But the dividend policy established a 30% dividend payment.

但目前，至少在第一季度，我們還沒有考慮支付這些款項，這將在未來進行評估。但股利政策規定了30%的股利支付。

Alejandro Demichelis, Jefferies.

亞歷杭德羅·德米凱利斯，傑富瑞。

Two small questions, if I may, please. The first one is when you're talking about your growth plans and so, could you please confirm how you see your CapEx requirements for, say, this year and next year? That's the first question.

請問我兩個小問題。第一個問題是，當您談論您的成長計畫時，您能否確認您如何看待今年和明年的資本支出需求？這是第一個問題。

And then the second question, just bit of a follow-up to the previous question on pricing is, how should we think about your realized prices if lithium prices continue to come down? Should we expect them to follow that path, or should we expect them to be more moderate than what we see on the screens, let's call it?

然後第二個問題，只是對上一個關於定價的問題的後續問題，如果鋰價繼續下跌，我們應該如何看待您的實際價格？我們是否應該期望他們遵循這條道路，或者我們是否應該期望他們比我們在螢幕上看到的更加溫和，我們這麼說吧？

Well, we usually review our CapEx plan once a year. And once that is reviewed, its shared with the market. We should review our CapEx plan in the upcoming months. And of course, we will share with the market the conclusions for that.

嗯，我們通常每年審查一次我們的資本支出計劃。一旦審核通過，就會與市場分享。我們應該在接下來的幾個月裡審查我們的資本支出計劃。當然，我們會與市場分享我們的結論。

Today, we don't have any updates from what was shared a few months ago. We're working on the expansion of our lithium production facilities in Chile, carbonate and hydroxide, also expanding our abilities to produce lithium sulfate. On top of that, we're working on the Mount Holland commissioning of the refinery. And on top of that, the initiatives that we're working on, on the nitrates and iodine side, where the most important one is the seawater pipeline that should let us expand in the future our capacity to produce more iodine. So no update as of this moment.

今天，我們沒有收到幾個月前分享的任何更新。我們正在努力擴大位於智利的碳酸鹽和氫氧化物鋰生產設施，同時擴大生產硫酸鋰的能力。除此之外，我們也正在致力於 Mount Holland 煉油廠的調試。除此之外，我們還在硝酸鹽和碘方面開展了多項舉措，其中最重要的是海水管道，這將使我們能夠在未來擴大生產更多碘的能力。因此目前沒有更新。

Yeah. And Alejandro, regarding prices. Well, as you probably know, after remaining relatively stable during Q4 '24 and 2025, with some daily fluctuations up and down, lithium prices in China started to go down about 1.5 months ago, and prices in Asia outside China have also been going down. So our sales volume is largely concentrated in China, and our realized prices remain mainly linked to price indices.

是的。還有亞歷杭德羅，關於價格。嗯，您可能知道，在 2024 年第四季和 2025 年期間保持相對穩定之後，除了每天有一些上下波動之外，中國的鋰價在大約 1.5 個月前開始下跌，中國以外的亞洲地區的價格也一直在下跌。因此，我們的銷售量主要集中在中國，我們的實現價格主要與物價指數掛鉤。

Consequently, we do expect a lower average sales price in Q2 compared to Q1.

因此，我們確實預期第二季的平均銷售價格會低於第一季。

Okay. So the answer is that your prices will be linked to those indices, yeah?

好的。所以答案是您的價格將與這些指數掛鉤，是嗎？

Yes. Yes, indeed.

是的。是的，確實如此。

Julia Zaniolo, Bank of America.

朱莉婭·扎尼奧洛，美國銀行。

My question is about your thoughts on your [keen to announce] an investment in a lithium project in Chile. But as we know, the market has an oversupply and price pressure. So if you could share your thoughts on how do you see your -- what impact do you expect for the market and supply demand and also for us to competitive positioning in Chile?

我的問題是關於您對[熱衷於宣布]投資智利鋰項目的看法。但我們知道，市場供應過剩，價格壓力較大。那麼，如果您可以分享您的看法，您認為這會對市場和供需以及我們在智利的競爭地位產生什麼影響？

So during 2025, we expect the demand to reach around 1.4 million metric tons, representing over 15% year-over-year growth. China remains with a significant lead in the EV market with more than 40% year-over-year growth and roughly 70% of the EV global sales. On the other hand, the European Union has had a very strong first quarter with the US having a slight decrease, but we continue to evaluate potential impacts on the corresponding new regulatory environment.

因此，我們預計到 2025 年需求將達到約 140 萬公噸，年增超過 15%。中國在電動車市場仍保持領先地位，年增超過 40%，約佔全球電動車銷量的 70%。另一方面，歐盟第一季表現非常強勁，美國略有下降，但我們仍在評估相應新監管環境的潛在影響。

Overall, market should continue to shift slightly towards some carbonate production with LFP continuing their dominance in China and starting to expand abroad. During 2025, supply is expected to grow close to 15% as well, reaching between 1.5 million to 1.6 million metric tons, assuming no significant production delays occur in the market as a consequence of the current low price environment.

總體而言，市場應該會繼續略微向碳酸鹽生產轉變，磷酸鐵鋰將繼續在中國佔據主導地位，並開始向海外擴張。假設當前低價環境不會造成市場出現重大生產延誤，那麼預計 2025 年供應量也將成長近 15%，達到 150 萬至 160 萬公噸。

Juraj Domic, LarrainVial.

尤拉吉·多米奇、拉瑞恩·維亞爾。

We have two questions. The first one regarding the lithium competition you are facing in China from other producers because it seems that several of them should be struggling at these prices. But production, it seems that it's continuing. That's my first question.

我們有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於你們在中國面臨的其他鋰生產商的競爭，因為看起來其中有幾家生產商在這樣的價格下會陷入困境。但生產似乎仍在繼續。這是我的第一個問題。

And in the -- and my second is, you mentioned in the fourth quarter that you we're seeing some optimism over a positive trend in 2026. Has this view changed with the information so far in 2025?

我的第二個問題是，您在第四季度提到，我們對 2026 年的正面趨勢感到樂觀。到 2025 年為止，這種觀點是否隨著資訊而改變？

So regarding competition in China, of course, we face significant competitors in China. They have a large portion of the market. But as many of the competitors that we see in the lithium industry overall, some of them have had not so very good results, of course, due to the lithium price environment. So I think this is -- overall, the industry is struggling with this current pricing.

因此，就中國市場的競爭而言，我們當然在中國面臨強大的競爭對手。他們佔據了很大一部分市場份額。但正如我們在鋰行業整體看到的許多競爭對手一樣，其中一些公司的業績並不那麼好，當然，這是由於鋰的價格環境所致。所以我認為——總體而言，該行業正在努力應對當前的定價。

And regarding your question on prices for 2026, of course, prices will be a consequence of the supply/demand balance. So we will see how this year develops and see what the impacts will be for next year.

關於您關於 2026 年價格的問題，當然，價格將由供需平衡決定。因此，我們將觀察今年的發展以及對明年的影響。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Ferreira, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示） 盧卡斯·費雷拉，摩根大通。

Hi, everyone. I hope you hear me now. Sorry, my line dropped the previous time. I don't know if my question was answered while it was out, but it's very much -- the first question to confirm your CapEx numbers for this year and the next few years, if you can? And which are the main projects in the pipeline now consuming this CapEx?

大家好。我希望你現在能聽到我的聲音。抱歉，上次我的線斷了。我不知道我的問題是否得到了回答，但第一個問題是確認今年和未來幾年的資本支出數字，如果可以的話？目前正在籌備中的哪些主要項目正在消耗這些資本支出？

And the second question regarding production cost of lithium. First, let's talk about Atacama if the ramp up to 240 gives you sort of a fixed cost dilution effects, if there's anything in the Carmen plant in the pipeline to help on reducing cost eventually. So pretty much if you can share any sort of what number to expect for cash cost in that will be great. And any initial views on the cost of the production in Mount Holland, how it's been evolving? And if you have anything to share with us, that will be great.

第二個問題是關於鋰的生產成本。首先，讓我們談談阿塔卡馬，如果產量增加到 240 會給你帶來某種固定成本稀釋效應，卡門工廠的管道中是否有任何東西可以幫助最終降低成本。因此，如果您能分享預計的現金成本數字，那就太好了。您對於荷蘭山的生產成本有何初步看法？其發展情況如何？如果您有任何想與我們分享的內容，那就太好了。

Your CapEx question was answered already, if you want, we can discuss about it later. Carlo.

您的資本支出問題已經得到解答，如果您願意，我們可以稍後討論。卡洛。

Regarding to the -- our cost in Chile, I have to mention, well, you already know that we have been facing very lowest prices during this year. And mainly because of that, we have been working in several cost reduction initiatives in order to maintain our cost leadership in the market. We have been working at the same time, increasing the capacity, working on quality. And all of that, we have been improving the year.

關於我們在智利的成本，我必須提一下，嗯，您已經知道，今​​年我們面臨的價格非​​常低。主要是因為這個原因，我們一直在努力實施多項成本削減舉措，以保持我們在市場上的成本領先地位。我們一直在努力，同時提高產能，並提高品質。所有這些，我們今年都在不斷改進。

So we expect to reduce our operational cost during this year and the coming year.

因此，我們預計今年和明年的營運成本將會降低。

Should we expect declining nominal costs for lithium in this year and the coming year. Is that fair to assume?

我們是否應該預期今年和明年鋰的名目成本會下降？這樣的假設合理嗎？

We expect a decline in the nominal the cost, yes. We already have in the first quarter.

是的，我們預計名目成本會下降。我們在第一季就已經這樣做了。

Lucas, Andres Fontannaz here. Regarding your question on Mount Holland. Let me start by saying that even at current prices, our Mount Holland operation is cash positive, and we are executing as planned. So we continue to be in ramp-up mode in the concentrator. So as you know, every operational ramp-up is facing higher cost.

盧卡斯，這裡是安德烈斯·豐坦納茲。關於您關於荷蘭山的問題。首先我要說的是，即使以當前價格計算，我們的 Mount Holland 業務仍能保持現金流正值，而且我們正在按計劃執行。因此，我們繼續在濃縮器中處於加速模式。如您所知，每次營運擴張都會面臨更高的成本。

But we are confident that over the long term, our project will generate satisfactory returns because we do have an attractive cost structure. And on top of that, we will have an integrated lithium hydroxide production. And as you know, we are commissioning the refinery right now, and we are very happy with the results of the commissioning, which is currently at 95%.

但我們相信，從長遠來看，我們的專案將產生令人滿意的回報，因為我們確實擁有具有吸引力的成本效益結構。除此之外，我們還將擁有綜合的氫氧化鋰生產能力。如你所知，我們目前正在調試煉油廠，我們對調試結果非常滿意，目前調試完成率為 95%。

Okay. Lucas, Ricardo Ramos speaking here. I just want to put a summary here that we have a positive view about the long term in the lithium industry. It means today, price environment is not sustainable. It means there's no way the industry can survive these prices.

好的。盧卡斯，里卡多·拉莫斯在這裡發言。我只是想在這裡總結一下，我們對鋰行業的長期前景持積極態度。這意味著今天的價格環境是不可持續的。這意味著該行業無法承受這樣的價格。

SQM is probably the only one. I'm not sure if the only, but one of the only that can have reasonable profits at today pricing. It means that price should improve in the future, probably in the near future. What we can say is that there is no one in the world best prepared.

SQM 可能是唯一的一個。我不確定這是否是唯一一家，但它是唯一一家能夠以今天的定價獲得合理利潤的公司之一。這意味著價格在未來應該會上漲，可能就在不久的將來。我們可以說，世界上沒有人的準備最充分。

We are the best one in order to take advantage of the market. We have been very successful increasing capacity. Today, we have the capacity, the quality, the alternatives, the market, Australia. It means everything is in our favor to take advantage of the recovery of the prices. That is coming.

為了充分利用市場，我們是最好的。我們在提高產能方面非常成功。今天，我們擁有產能、品質、替代品、市場、澳洲。這意味著一切對我們有利，可以利用價格的回升。那即將到來。

It means we cannot know. We don't know when. But market is very strong. It means demand is stronger than ever.

這意味著我們無法知道。我們不知道什麼時候。但市場非常強勁。這意味著需求比以往任何時候都強勁。

The uses of the electric vehicles industries is better than expected in terms of quality of the cars, performance, whatever. That's why we think that even though there are some issues in the world in the trading activities between different countries in the medium term, this demand will continue to increase, will continue to increase, and we are prepared to supply the lithium to the market.

電動車產業的用途在汽車品質、性能等方面都比預期的要好。這就是為什麼我們認為，儘管中期來看世界各國之間的貿易活動存在一些問題，但這種需求仍將繼續增加，將繼續增加，我們已準備好向市場供應鋰。

It means that we have a positive view. My view is I don't have the crystal ball anyway, but my view is positive for next year. They think that prices will go back to a reasonable price environment. And I think the demand will continue to grow. We are going to be the number one prepared.

這意味著我們有正面的看法。我的觀點是，無論如何我都沒有水晶球，但我對明年的看法是樂觀的。他們認為價格將會回到合理的價格環境。我認為需求將會持續成長。我們將成為最有準備的人。

And again, as Carlos Diaz said before, we had -- all the time, it means our cost is by far the lowest cost, but is even better today than what we used to be two years ago.

正如卡洛斯·迪亞茲之前所說，我們一直以來都保持著最低的成本，而且比兩年前的水平還要好。

I mean, the work in our facility has been great in terms that we have been able to have. And you see my numbers in -- our numbers in the first quarter, and our numbers speak by themselves in terms that we generate significant profits in the lithium industry even though prices were very low. That's something that we are very proud to -- it will continue in the near future.

我的意思是，就我們所能做到的而言，我們工廠的工作非常出色。您可以看到我第一季的數據，這些數字本身就說明了，儘管價格非常低，但我們在鋰行業仍然獲得了可觀的利潤。這是我們非常自豪的事情——在不久的將來我們還會繼續這樣做。

And in Australia, as was commented. Now we think that we have one of the best production of spodumene, and probably, we will start producing now hydroxide that we're being integrated, very good news, and probably we're a very strong competitor in the industry. It means again, very -- I have a positive outlook in the medium, maybe long term. But of course, we are facing a situation very complicated second quarter in terms of the pricing. Everyone is facing the situation, not only SQM.

正如有人評論的那樣，在澳洲也是如此。現在我們認為我們擁有最好的鋰輝石生產能力之一，而且可能我們將開始生產我們正在整合的氫氧化物，這是非常好的消息，而且我們可能會成為該行業非常強大的競爭對手。這又意味著──我對中期甚至長期前景持樂觀態度。但當然，就定價而言，第二季我們面臨的情況非常複雜。每個人都面臨這種情況，而不僅僅是 SQM。

Everyone is selling in China. China is a big -- is the most important market in the world. There's no one big producer of lithium without selling the products in China and the end facing what is the market price. And we think that we are the best one to do it.

每個人都在中國銷售。中國是一個大市場——是世界上最重要的市場。沒有一家大型鋰生產商不在中國銷售產品，最終面臨的市場價格是多少。我們認為我們是最適合做這件事的人。

Constanza Gonzalez, Quest Capital.

康斯坦薩·岡薩雷斯，Quest Capital。

Thank you for taking my question. I have a question regarding Mount Holland that is not so clear for me. I appreciate if you can clarify the information of a cost that you are considering right now by zooming in in the case of Mount Holland project. Or could you give us more details about the levels that you are seeing this quarter?

感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個關於荷蘭山的問題，但我不是很清楚。如果您能透過放大 Mount Holland 專案的情況來澄清您現在正在考慮的成本信息，我將不勝感激。或者您能否向我們提供有關本季所見水平的更多詳細資訊？

Constanza, Andres here. As I said before, we are still in ramp-up mode. And in that period, of course, we are facing higher costs. But as mentioned, we -- as soon as we reach the state, the project is cash cash flow positive even at these prices. So we are confident and very satisfied with the evolution of that project.

康斯坦薩，我是安德烈斯。正如我之前所說，我們仍處於加速模式。當然，在那段時期，我們面臨更高的成本。但正如所提到的，一旦我們達到該狀態，即使在這些價格下，該專案的現金流量也是正的。因此，我們對該專案的進展充滿信心並且非常滿意。

Okay. Just to clarify. Are you considering the depreciation in Mount Holland project too because if you look for the information in comparison with first quarter of 2024, the depreciation rise a lot. So that's why I was asking if you was considering that.

好的。只是為了澄清一下。您是否也考慮了 Mount Holland 項目的折舊，因為如果您查看與 2024 年第一季度相比的信息，折舊會大幅增加。所以這就是我詢問您是否考慮過這一點的原因。

Andres was referring to cash cost in his statement.

安德烈斯在聲明中提到的是現金成本。

And this will conclude our question-and-answer session for today and our program as well. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.

我們今天的問答環節和節目到此結束。感謝大家的參與，現在您可以斷開連線了。