西蒙地產 (SPG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Simon Property Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加西蒙地產集團 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Tom Ward, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Tom. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁湯姆沃德 (Tom Ward)。謝謝你，湯姆。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Paul. And thank you, everyone, for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call are David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，保羅。感謝大家今晚加入我們。出席今天電話會議的有董事長、執行長兼總裁 David Simon；和財務長布萊恩·麥克達德 (Brian McDade)。

A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements.

快速提醒一下，本次電話會議中所做的陳述可能被視為1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港含義內的前瞻性陳述，由於各種風險不確定性和其他因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們建議您參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以詳細討論與這些前瞻性陳述相關的風險因素。

Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com.

請注意，本次電話會議所包含的資訊僅截至今天為止可能是準確的。非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節包含在新聞稿和今天提交的 8-K 表格中的補充資訊中。新聞稿和補充資訊均可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investors.simon.com 上取得。

Our conference call this evening will be limited to 1 hour. For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask you to please respect the request to limit yourself to one question.

我們今晚的電話會議將被限制在 1 小時內。對於那些想要參加問答環節的人，我們請您尊重將自己限制在一個問題上的要求。

I'm pleased to introduce David Simon.

我很高興介紹大衛·西蒙。

Good evening. Thanks, Tom. Before turning to the results, I would like to provide some perspective on our company as we celebrated our 30th anniversary as a public company mid-December of last year. We have grown our company into a global leader in premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations managing through, and in some cases, very turbulent times.

晚安.謝謝，湯姆。在討論結果之前，我想先談談對我們公司的一些看法，因為去年 12 月中旬我們慶祝了上市公司 30 週年。我們已經將公司發展成為頂級購物、餐飲、娛樂和綜合用途目的地的全球領導者，並在某些情況下度過了非常動蕩的時期。

Over the last 3 decades, from our base of 115 properties in 1993, we have acquired approximately 300 properties, developed more than 50 and disposed of approximately 250 resulting in our current domestic portfolio of about -- of 215 assets.

在過去的3 年裡，我們從1993 年擁有115 處房產的基礎上，收購了大約300 處房產，開發了50 多處房產，並處置了大約250 處房產，從而形成了我們目前約215 項資產的國內投資組合。

We expanded globally and today have 35 international outlets, including world-renowned outlets in Asia. And our portfolio is differentiated by product type, geography, enclosed and open air centers located large and dense catchment areas. Our portfolio is supported by the industry's strongest balance sheet and a top management team. We are the largest landlords, the world's most important retailers and not by accident. Our diversified tenant base has solid credit. And our mix is always changing and adapting, best illustrated by the fact that compared to 30 years ago, only 1 retailer is still in our current top 10 tenants.

我們向全球擴張，如今擁有 35 家國際門市，其中包括亞洲的世界知名門市。我們的產品組合因產品類型、地理位置、位於大而密集的集水區的封閉式和露天中心而有所不同。我們的產品組合得到業界最強大的資產負債表和高階管理團隊的支持。我們是最大的房東、世界上最重要的零售商，這並非偶然。我們多元化的租戶基礎擁有良好的信用。我們的組合總是在變化和適應，最好的說明是，與 30 年前相比，只有 1 家零售商仍然是我們目前的前 10 名租戶。

Our team's hard work has resulted in industry-leading results, including some of the following: our annual revenue increased from $424 million to nearly $5.7 billion, annual FFO generate -- our annual FFO generation increased 30x from approximately $150 million to nearly $4.7 billion, a 12% CAGR. Total market capitalization has increased from $3 billion to $90 billion. We have paid over $42 billion in dividends to shareholders. We have assets in our portfolio that have been in business for more than 60 years. Those assets are still growing today with many generating $100 million in NOI. These assets are in great locations. The loyal and large customer base that are where the retailers want to be. No other asset type has the longevity, including the NOI generation and embedded future growth that these assets have.

我們團隊的辛勤工作取得了業界領先的成果，包括以下一些：我們的年收入從4.24 億美元增加到近57 億美元，年度FFO 生成量——我們的年度FFO 生成量增加了30 倍，從約1.5 億美元增加到近47 億美元，複合年增長率為 12%。總市值從 30 億美元增加到 900 億美元。我們已向股東支付超過 420 億美元的股息。我們的投資組合中的資產已經運作了 60 多年。如今，這些資產仍在成長，其中許多資產的 NOI 已達 1 億美元。這些資產位置優越。忠誠且龐大的客戶群是零售商想要的。沒有其他資產類型具有如此長的壽命，包括這些資產所具有的 NOI 生成和未來成長。

Yes, they change. Yes, they evolve. Yes, they adapt, but yes, they also grow. Our collection of assets cannot be replicated. And there are hidden -- always hidden opportunities within them. I want to thank the entire Simon team who have contributed to 30 years of success as a public company. And now let me turn to our fourth quarter '23 results.

是的，他們改變了。是的，它們在進化。是的，他們會適應，但他們也會成長。我們的資產收集是無法複製的。其中隱藏著──總是隱藏著的機會。我要感謝整個西蒙團隊，他們為上市公司 30 年來的成功做出了貢獻。現在讓我談談 23 年第四季的業績。

We generated approximately $4.7 billion in funds from operation in 2023 or $12.51 per share and returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases. For the quarter, FFO was $1.38 billion or $3.69 per share compared to $1.27 billion or $3.40 per share. Let me walk you through some of the highlights for this quarter compared to Q4 of 2022.

2023 年，我們從營運中獲得了約 47 億美元的資金，即每股 12.51 美元，並透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 29 億美元。本季 FFO 為 13.8 億美元，即每股 3.69 美元，而上一季為 12.7 億美元，即每股 3.40 美元。讓我向您介紹本季與 2022 年第四季相比的一些亮點。

Domestic operations had a terrific performance this quarter and contributed $0.28 of growth, primarily driven by higher rental income with lower operating expenses. Gains from investment activity in the fourth quarter were approximately $0.07 higher in a year-over-year comparison, other platform investments and $0.03 lower contribution compared to last year. FFO from our real estate business was $3.23 per share in the fourth quarter compared to $2.97 from last year. That's 8.7% growth and $11.78 per share for '23 compared to $11.39 last year. Domestic property NOI increased 7.3% year-over-year for the quarter and 4.8% for the year, continued leasing momentum, resilient consumer spending, operational excellence delivered results for the year, exceeding our initial expectations. Our NOI ended the year higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency grew 7.2% for the quarter and 4.9% for the year.

國內業務本季表現出色，貢獻了 0.28 美元的成長，這主要是由於租金收入增加和營運費用降低所致。第四季投資活動收益年增約 0.07 美元，其他平台投資收益較去年同期減少 0.03 美元。第四季我們房地產業務的 FFO 每股收益為 3.23 美元，而去年同期為每股 2.97 美元。與去年的 11.39 美元相比，2023 年成長了 8.7%，每股收益為 11.78 美元。國內房地產 NOI 本季同比增長 7.3%，全年同比增長 4.8%，持續的租賃勢頭、彈性的消費者支出、卓越的運營為全年帶來了業績，超出了我們最初的預期。我們的 NOI 年底高於 2019 年大流行前的水準。投資組合 NOI（包括以固定匯率計算的國際物業）本季成長 7.2%，全年成長 4.9%。

Mall and outlet occupancy at the end of the quarter or fourth quarter was 95.8%, an increase of 90 basis points compared to last year. The mills occupancy was 97.8%. Occupancy is above year-end 2019 levels for all of our platforms. Average base minimum rent for malls and outlets increased 3.1% year-over-year, and the mills rent increased 4.3%. We signed more than 960 leases for approximately 3.4 million square feet in the fourth quarter. For the year, we signed over 4,500 leases, representing more than 18 million square feet. Approximately 30% of our leasing activity for the year were new deals with going in rents of approximately $74 per square foot and renewals had going in rents of approximately $65 per square foot. Leasing momentum for the last couple of years continues into 2024. Reported retailer sales per square foot per quarter was $743 for malls and outlets, combined at $677 for the mills. During the quarter, we sold a portion of our interest in ABG for gross proceeds of $300 million in cash and reported pretax and after-tax gains of $157 million and $118 million, respectively.

本季末或第四季的購物中心和奧特萊斯入住率為 95.8%，比去年同期成長 90 個基點。工廠的入住率為97.8%。我們所有平台的入住率均高於 2019 年底的水準。購物中心和奧特萊斯的平均最低基本租金年增3.1%，工廠租金上漲4.3%。第四季度，我們簽署了 960 多份租賃合同，面積約為 340 萬平方英尺。今年，我們簽署了超過 4,500 份租約，面積超過 1,800 萬平方英尺。今年我們約 30% 的租賃活動是新交易，租金約為每平方英尺 74 美元，續約租金約為每平方英尺 65 美元。過去幾年的租賃動能將持續到 2024 年。據報告，購物中心和奧特萊斯每季每平方英尺的零售商銷售額為 743 美元，工廠的合計銷售額為 677 美元。本季度，我們出售了 ABG 的部分權益，獲得了 3 億美元現金總收益，稅前和稅後收益分別為 1.57 億美元和 1.18 億美元。

We opened our 11th outlet in Europe last year. Construction continues on 2 outlets. Yes, in Tulsa, Oklahoma. And yes, one in Jakarta, Indonesia. We completed 13 significant redevelopments and we'll complete other major development projects this year. In addition, we expect to begin construction this year on 5 to 6 mixed-use projects representing around $800 million of spend from Orange County to Ann Arbor to Boston to Seattle to Rosebel Field. They're some of the ones that are planning to start this year, and we expect to fund these redevelopments and mixed-use projects with our internally generated cash flow of over $1.5 billion after dividend payments.

去年我們在歐洲開設了第 11 家門市。 2 家分店的建設工作仍在繼續。是的，在俄克拉荷馬州塔爾薩。是的，有一個位於印度尼西亞雅加達。我們完成了 13 項重大重建項目，今年也將完成其他主要開發項目。此外，我們預計今年將開始建造 5 至 6 個綜合用途項目，從橘郡到安娜堡，從波士頓到西雅圖，再到羅斯貝爾機場，總投資約 8 億美元。這些是今年計劃啟動的項目之一，我們預計在支付股息後，將用我們內部產生的超過 15 億美元的現金流為這些重建和綜合用途項目提供資金。

During 2023, we completed $12 billion in financing activities including 3 senior note offerings for approximately $3.1 billion, including the Klépierre exchangeable offering. We recast and upsized our primary revolver credit facility to $5 billion and completed $4 billion of secured loan refinancings and extensions. Our A-rated balance sheet is as strong as ever. We have approximately $11 billion of liquidity. During 2023, we paid, as I mentioned earlier, $2.8 billion in common stock dividends. We repurchased 1.3 million shares of our common stock at an average price of just over $110 per share in 2023. Today, we announced our dividend of $1.95 per share for the first quarter, a year-over-year increase of 8.3%. The dividend is payable on March 29 of 2024.

2023 年，我們完成了 120 億美元的融資活動，其中包括 3 張高級票據發行，總金額約 31 億美元，其中包括 Klépierre 可交換發行。我們將主要循環信貸額度重新調整並擴大至 50 億美元，並完成了 40 億美元的擔保貸款再融資和延期。我們的 A 級資產負債表一如既往地強勁。我們擁有約 110 億美元的流動資金。正如我之前提到的，2023 年我們支付了 28 億美元的普通股股息。 2023 年，我們以每股略高於 110 美元的平均價格回購了 130 萬股普通股。今天，我們宣布第一季股息為每股 1.95 美元，年增 8.3%。股利將於2024年3月29日支付。

Now moving on to 2024. Our FFO guidance is $11.85 to $12.10 per share. Our guidance reflects the following assumptions: domestic property NOI growth of at least 3%, increased net interest expense compared to 2023 of approximately $0.25 to $0.30 per share, reflecting current market interest rates on both fixed and variable debt assumptions and cash balances. Contribution from other property -- other platform investments of approximately $0.10 to $0.15 per share. No significant acquisition or disposition activity and our current diluted share count of approximately 374 million shares.

現在進入 2024 年。我們的 FFO 指引為每股 11.85 美元至 12.10 美元。我們的指引反映了以下假設：國內房地產 NOI 成長至少 3%，與 2023 年相比，每股淨利息支出增加約 0.25 至 0.30 美元，反映了固定和可變債務假設以及現金餘額的當前市場利率。其他財產的貢獻——其他平台投資約為每股 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元。沒有重大收購或處置活動，我們目前的稀釋股數約為 3.74 億股。

So with that said, it's safe to say we're excited to enter year 31 as a public company. Thank you for your time, and we're ready for Q&A.

話雖如此，可以肯定地說，我們很高興能作為一家上市公司進入第 31 年。感謝您抽出寶貴時間，我們已準備好進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I was just wondering if you can maybe talk a little bit about kind of the leasing pipeline and where things stand today versus maybe the year ago? And what sort of conversations are you having with the tenants? And maybe how has the pricing dynamic changed given that you're now kind of 95% leased and pretty full in the portfolio?

我只是想知道您是否可以談談租賃管道的類型以及今天與一年前相比的情況？您與租戶進行了哪些對話？鑑於您現在 95% 已出租且投資組合相當完整，也許定價動態發生了怎樣的變化？

Well, I mean, Steve, we're always adjusting our mix. We're always trying to -- so even though we're 96% leased, they're vast. We're always looking to improve our retailer mix and often beneficial to our NOI growth. I would say just generically, and obviously, I spent a lot of time myself on leasing and with my team on leasing demand remains very strong. And there is a real interest by all sorts of retailers and people that populate our shopping centers to be part of what we're doing. So I think as you probably saw our new deals are $74 a foot thereabouts, our renewals are $65 a foot. Our expiring leases this year in the 56, 57 range. So we're seeing generally positive spreads. Supply and demand is in our favor. Historically low supply in big properties across the country. I mean, there used to be 40 million square feet of retail real estate built every year. Now there's essentially less than a few million here and there. So -- and then there's been obsolescence, too, which makes the supply shrink as well. So -- and then there's just great new retailers that we're very excited to do business with. I was on the West Coast, seeing some of them -- the importance of bricks and mortar has never been higher. And the cost of -- all of the things that we said about -- don't get me wrong, e-commerce is critically important. But all of the stuff about e-commerce, cost of customer acquisition, returns, stickiness, et cetera, all is -- continues to be a challenge. If you looked at the marketplaces that pure online, they run into problems. So you're really -- they really need to be connected to a bricks and mortar for survivability. So all of those things are pointing to a positive picture. It's a function of execution, a function of being first, a function of continuing to improve our properties which we're very focused about. But even though we've bounced back and had a couple of really good years in terms of lease-up from the depths of the pandemic. We're not finished. And retail demand continues and it's strong. And it's across the board. I mean it's not one category, one retailer, but pretty much across the board.

嗯，我的意思是，史蒂夫，我們一直在調整我們的組合。我們一直在努力——所以儘管我們 96% 已出租，但它們還是很大。我們一直在尋求改善我們的零售商組合，這通常有利於我們的 NOI 成長。我想說的是一般性的，顯然，我自己花了很多時間在租賃上，我的團隊對租賃的需求仍然非常強勁。我們購物中心的各類零售商和人們都非常有興趣參與我們正在做的事情。所以我想，正如您可能看到的那樣，我們的新交易價格約為每英尺 74 美元，而我們的續約價格為每英尺 65 美元。我們今年到期的租約有 56、57 個範圍。因此，我們普遍看到正利差。供給和需求對我們有利。全國大型房產的供應量處於歷史低點。我的意思是，過去每年建造 4000 萬平方英尺的零售房地產。現在到處都有不到幾百萬。所以——然後也出現了過時的情況，這也導致了供應量的減少。因此，我們非常高興與一些偉大的新零售商開展業務。我在西海岸看到了其中的一些——磚塊和砂漿的重要性從未如此之高。我們所說的所有事情的成本不要誤會我的意思，電子商務至關重要。但有關電子商務的所有內容、客戶獲取成本、回報、黏性等等，仍然是一個挑戰。如果你觀察一下純線上市場，你會發現它們會遇到問題。所以你真的——他們真的需要連接到實體才能生存。所以所有這些都指向積極的前景。這是執行的功能，是第一的功能，是持續改進我們非常關注的屬性的功能。但儘管我們已經從疫情最嚴重的時期反彈過來，並在租賃方面度過了非常好的幾年。我們還沒完成。零售需求持續強勁。這是全面的。我的意思是，這不是一個類別、一個零售商，但幾乎全面的。

Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯。

David, could you give us some more detail on the ABG sales that you referenced, maybe how much you still own? How much do you think your remaining OPI could be worth? And whether you plan to monetize more in '24 or maybe what could influence that decision?

David，您能否向我們提供有關您提到的 ABG 銷售的更多詳細信息，也許您還擁有多少？您認為您剩餘的 OPI 值多少錢？您是否計劃在 24 年實現更多盈利，或者什麼可能會影響您的決定？

Sure. Well, let me just -- we sold about 2% of our ABG stock. So we essentially went from just under 12% to just under 10%. And we'll continue to look to monetize these investments. They've been, by and large, very good investments across not just the big ones, but the smaller ones as well. Obviously, there's a number of them that are synergistic to us. But we have a strict adherence to creating value. And if we think we can deploy that capital into kind of what I'd call the mothership and get better growth from that, then that's where our #1 priority will be. So it wouldn't surprise me, Caitlin, for us to continue to monetize. Obviously, some of these are bigger value -- bigger investments. So it's not that easy to do it in one big swoop, but we're very focused on portfolio management of those assets. And if we can monetize them, are we going to get a better return, plowing it back into our core business.

當然。好吧，讓我說一下——我們出售了大約 2% 的 ABG 股票。所以我們基本上從略低於 12% 上升到略低於 10%。我們將繼續尋求將這些投資貨幣化。總的來說，它們不僅對大型企業而且對小型企業都是非常好的投資。顯然，其中有很多對我們有協同作用。但我們嚴格堅持創造價值。如果我們認為我們可以將這些資本部署到我所說的母艦中，並從中獲得更好的成長，那麼這就是我們的第一要務。因此，凱特琳，我們繼續獲利並不會讓我感到驚訝。顯然，其中一些具有更大的價值——更大的投資。因此，一次性做到這一點並不容易，但我們非常專注於這些資產的投資組合管理。如果我們能夠將它們貨幣化，我們是否會獲得更好的回報，將其重新投入到我們的核心業務中。

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

First, congratulations on the anniversary. David, there's a lot of initiatives. So as you think about the next 5 years, I know it's probably a difficult question, but is there 1 or 2 key initiatives that you're most excited about as you think about the next 5 years?

首先，祝賀週年紀念日。大衛，有很多倡議。因此，當您考慮未來 5 年時，我知道這可能是一個難題，但是當您考慮未來 5 年時，是否有 1 或 2 個關鍵舉措是您最興奮的？

Well, look, I'd say a couple of things on the property level, there's no question that all of the mixed-use stuff that we're bringing in, plus the redevelopment of our department store boxes are probably the most interesting and exciting things that we're doing on the ground. And so -- that would certainly be number one.

好吧，看，我想說一些關於房地產層面的事情，毫無疑問，我們引入的所有混合用途的東西，加上我們百貨公司盒子的重新開發可能是最有趣和令人興奮的我們正在實地做的事情。所以——這肯定是第一。

Number two is, we're very excited about growing our outlet business in Southeast Asia. It's an incredibly -- it's an incredible -- incredibly robust market, a young population and a growing. And I'm not -- when I say Southeast Asia, I'm not like in Jakarta, places like that where it's not China, it's places like that where we see kind of what we can do in Japan and in Korea on the outlet side. Jeff, you probably know that better than anybody based on your previous history with -- in terms of that. So we -- that's very exciting.

第二，我們對在東南亞發展直銷業務感到非常興奮。這是一個令人難以置信的、令人難以置信的、強勁的市場、年輕的人口和不斷增長的人口。當我說東南亞時，我不像在雅加達那樣的地方，那裡不是中國，而是我們在日本和韓國可以做的事情。邊。傑夫，根據你之前的經歷，你可能比任何人都更清楚這一點。所以我們——這非常令人興奮。

I'd also say we still are in the pursuit of bringing technology to our loyal consumers that allow them to now enhance and -- their shopping experience with us. So we've got a lot of initiatives on the marketing, loyalty, sign and search is a great example where our consumer, either in property or previsit, can search our tenant base for what -- if they're looking for a black dress, where in this center can I buy it? And what retailer, obviously, that ties into the marketplace we're building with premium outlets. There'll be some news there this year on that front. So that whole system about customer interaction, reinforcing their shopping behavior, rewarding loyalty, expediting their trip and making it more useful is a big focus.

我還想說，我們仍在追求將科技帶給我們忠實的消費者，讓他們現在能夠增強他們在我們這裡的購物體驗。因此，我們在行銷、忠誠度、標誌和搜尋方面採取了很多舉措，這是一個很好的例子，我們的消費者，無論是在房產中還是在預先訪問過，都可以在我們的租戶群中搜尋什麼——如果他們正在尋找一件黑色連身裙，這個中心哪裡可以買到？顯然，哪些零售商與我們正在建立的優質折扣店市場相關聯。今年將會有一些關於這方面的消息。因此，關於客戶互動、加強他們的購物行為、獎勵忠誠度、加快他們的旅程並使其更有用的整個系統是一個重點。

And then as important, I think this is number 4 really is just we've got to do a great job of continuing to evolve our retailer mix. The exciting thing is there are more and more entrepreneurs or more and more exciting retailers that are coming up with great concepts, proving them out and then realizing that our centers are a good place for them to do business. So those are the ones that come to mind, but I'm certain there'll be ones that I haven't even thought of.

同樣重要的是，我認為這確實是第四點，我們必須在繼續發展我們的零售商組合方面做得很好。令人興奮的是，越來越多的企業家或越來越令人興奮的零售商提出了偉大的概念，證明了它們，然後意識到我們的中心是他們開展業務的好地方。所以這些都是我想到的，但我確信會有一些我甚至沒有想到。

Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alexander Goldfarb 和 Piper Sandler。

So I think at the opening, you mentioned that NOI is now exceeding pre-pandemic. The dividend is within less than 10% of pre-pandemic. And sort of thinking about Jeff's and Steve's questions on reinvestment. As you think about getting back to that pre-endemic dividend level, given the investment opportunities, especially lack of supply, growing demand, people are once again really engaged in physical retail, does that change your trajectory as you think about getting the dividend back to pre-pandemic, meaning are there better investment opportunities with that capital? Or is the delta really a function of rising interest rates that's -- meaning that the surpassing pre-pandemic NOI versus the dividend is really just a function of the higher interest expense now?

所以我認為您在開場時提到 NOI 現在已經超過了大流行前的水平。股息率不到大流行前的10%。並思考傑夫和史蒂夫關於再投資的問題。當你考慮回到疫情前的股息水平時，考慮到投資機會，特別是供應不足、需求不斷增長，人們再次真正參與實體零售，這是否會改變你考慮收回股息時的軌跡在大流行之前，這意味著這些資金是否有更好的投資機會？或者說，Delta 值真的是利率上升的函數嗎？這意味著，超出大流行前的 NOI 與股息之比實際上只是現在利息支出較高的函數？

Well, I mean, Alex, look, our yield is ridiculously hot, okay? So that's really -- and we could financially pay [2 10] tomorrow, right? So we have $1.5 billion of free cash flow after our dividend. So it has nothing to do with financial wherewithal. I mean, we would like -- we don't like trading at this high yield. So I think that's kind of how we look at it. We still think as we have these additional capital events. We still are anxious to continue to buy our stock back. And again, when I look at either the S&P 500, I look at the REIT peer group. I look at what the strip center rates -- our yield is plenty high for investors. So tell all of my investors, I could pay 2 10 tomorrow evening, okay, per quarter without a blink, but our yield is too high. And it will be there before you know it, but we would like to trade a little lower yield. Because we think -- certainly, if you look at it on that basis, our yield is higher than it should be. I mean the S&P is under 2% our REIT strip centers, Tom are in the 4s. We're close to 7%, right, 6.5%, 7%. So I mean, Alex, you should be pounding the table.

好吧，我的意思是，亞歷克斯，你看，我們的產量高得離譜，好嗎？所以這確實是——我們明天就可以在經濟上支付 [2 10]，對嗎？因此，扣除股息後我們有 15 億美元的自由現金流。所以和財力無關。我的意思是，我們希望——我們不喜歡以如此高的收益率進行交易。所以我認為我們就是這樣看待它的。我們仍然認為，因為我們有這些額外的資本事件。我們仍然渴望繼續回購我們的股票。再說一次，當我查看標準普爾 500 指數時，我會查看房地產投資信託基金的同儕群體。我看看地帶中心的利率是多少——我們的收益率對投資者來說已經足夠高了。所以告訴我所有的投資者，我明天晚上可以支付 2 10 美元，好吧，每季不眨眼，但我們的收益率太高了。在你意識到之前它就會出現，但我們希望交易的收益率稍微低一些。因為我們認為──當然，如果你以此為基礎來看的話，我們的收益率會高於應有的水準。我的意思是，我們的房地產投資信託基金中心的標準普爾指數低於 2%，湯姆則在 4% 左右。我們接近7%，對吧，6.5%，7%。所以我的意思是，亞歷克斯，你應該要拍桌子。

Yes. Unfortunately, I'm a nonpaying customer. The real customers are the ones listening to the call. We're just asking the questions.

是的。不幸的是，我是一個不付費的客戶。真正的客戶是那些聽電話的人。我們只是提出問題。

Absolutely. By the way, we are -- just so you know, we like your welcome out there. We are west of the Hudson, and we're not going to tell you exactly where we are, okay? We may not be in Indiana tonight, but we are west of the Hudson.

絕對地。順便說一句，我們希望您知道，我們歡迎您的光臨。我們在哈德遜河以西，我們不會告訴你我們具體在哪裡，好嗎？今晚我們可能不在印第安納州，但我們在哈德遜河以西。

I assume you'll be in Las Vegas this Sunday.

我想這週日你會在拉斯維加斯。

Well, I can't tell you my schedule.

好吧，我不能告訴你我的日程安排。

Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

David, base rents are up healthily in the low single-digit range year-over-year, while your tenant sales or square foot are down slightly. So can you just talk a little bit about these dynamics? Is that a reflection of your rents kind of catching up to some of the strength the tenants have experienced before their sales have started to come down? And just how long are these dynamics kind of sustainable like this?

大衛，基本租金年比在較低的個位數範圍內健康成長，而您的租戶銷售額或平方英尺略有下降。能簡單談談這些動態嗎？這是否反映了您的租金在某種程度上趕上了租戶在銷售額開始下降之前所經歷的一些實力？這些動態能持續多久？

Sure. Good question. So I will say this, I think the rent -- the going-in rents, renewals or new leases are very much sustainable. If you look at our occupancy cost, they are still at the low end of our historical range, and we're at 12.6%. And we have run up to 14-plus percent before. And I would also -- I would also caution report -- these are the sales that our tenants are reporting to us, but they are somewhat affected by returns they get and so on. We actually think our sales per foot are higher than this. In some cases, they have the ability to offset returns. In most cases, they don't. So I just put that out there. So I wouldn't -- and I mentioned this maybe 2, 3 years ago, probably certainly pre-pandemic, but we reported -- I know the market likes it, we actually think our sales were higher. They come from our properties and then they're somewhat affected by returns. And we think some -- a lot of those returns are Internet sales returns. So they don't even come from our properties. And so -- again, when we look at it, we feel like supply and demand, low occupancy cost, high retail sales and just overall demand, we'll be able to generate kind of the new leasing and renewal spreads that we've seen over the last couple of years.

當然。好問題。所以我想說的是，我認為租金——即將投入的租金、續租或新租約是非常可持續的。如果您查看我們的入住成本，您會發現它們仍處於歷史範圍的低端，為 12.6%。我們之前已經達到 14% 以上了。我還要——我也要謹慎地報告——這些是我們的租戶向我們報告的銷售額，但他們在某種程度上受到他們獲得的回報等的影響。實際上我們認為我們的每英尺銷售額都比這個更高。在某些情況下，他們有能力抵消回報。在大多數情況下，他們不會。所以我就把它放在那裡。所以我不會 - 我可能在兩三年前提到過這一點，可能肯定是在大流行之前，但我們報道過 - 我知道市場喜歡它，我們實際上認為我們的銷售額更高。它們來自我們的財產，然後它們在一定程度上受到回報的影響。我們認為，其中許多回報都是網路銷售回報。所以它們甚至不是來自我們的財產。因此，當我們再次審視它時，我們感覺到供應和需求、低入住成本、高零售額和總體需求，我們將能夠產生我們已經實現的新的租賃和續約價差。過去幾年看到的。

Our next question is from Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Floris Van Dijkum。

Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citi Group.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Craig Mailman。

Just going back to maybe the reinvestment theme here. You guys have plenty of cash after the dividend. And I'm just kind of curious, at this point, what is the level of anchor box reinvestment you actually need to do just given what maybe they give today? And after you guys were spared kind of some of the recent Macy's closings, but -- just as you look at the portfolio today, kind of what do you think over the next 2, 3 years? You guys could ultimately get back and have to retenant -- and just you talked a lot about how the leasing environment is good. Just what's the outlook for retenant in those boxes today? What's the targeted kind of makeup there? And is luxury still doing enough to be able to be the primary kind of backfill option?

回到這裡的再投資主題。分紅後你們有很多現金。我只是有點好奇，在這一點上，考慮到他們今天可能提供的東西，您實際上需要做的錨盒再投資水平是多少？在你們倖免於最近梅西百貨關閉的一些影響之後，但是——正如你們今天看到的投資組合一樣，你們對未來 2、3 年有何看法？你們最終可能會回來並必須續租——而且你們談論了很多關於租賃環境如何良好的問題。如今這些盒子裡的租戶前景如何？那裡的目標化妝品是什麼？奢侈品是否仍足以成為主要的回填選擇？

Well, on the -- Craig, on the department store boxes, I don't have it off the top of my head, but the ones we own, we basically don't have a ton of work to do. We have a handful of boxes that we own that -- that are in process like, for instance, and I mentioned just briefly on the call. We -- that was a former Sears store. We tore it down. It's in development now, under construction now. So the actual stores that we own are not manning probably under 10 at this point that are either currently under construction or in process. So very small amount of kind of less of an opportunity than you think. The ones that we -- Transformco still owns some boxes and so does Seritage. So we'll -- in our properties. So we'll see how that evolves. I mean eventually, some of those could be opportunities for us to buy and redevelop. We haven't made deals on those just because the ask has been too great. But -- we find -- and I don't think luxury is really going to be the dominant theme on a lot of these mixed-use -- I'm sorry, on these boxes. I think a lot of it will be -- continue to be the mixed-use development that we're doing. And obviously, opening up if it's in a closed mall opening et cetera with restaurants and entertainment and so on that's worked very well. So we have a number under construction or about to be under construction. But we don't really have that existing pipe that until we make more deals to buy some of the boxes back. It's not as big as you might think. It's only a handful.

嗯，克雷格，在百貨公司的盒子上，我並沒有想到這一點，但對於我們擁有的盒子，我們基本上沒有大量的工作要做。我們擁有一些我們擁有的盒子——例如，這些盒子正在處理中，我在電話中只是簡單地提到。我們——那是一家前西爾斯商店。我們把它拆掉了。現在正在開發，正在建設中。因此，目前我們擁有的實際商店的人員數量可能不低於 10 人，要么正在建設中，要么正在建設中。所以數量非常少，機會比你想像的少。我們 Transformco 仍然擁有一些盒子，Seritage 也是如此。所以我們會——在我們的財產中。所以我們將看看情況如何發展。我的意思是，最終，其中一些可能成為我們購買和重新開發的機會。我們還沒有就這些產品達成交易，只是因為要價太高了。但是，我們發現，我不認為奢華真的會成為許多混合用途的主導主題，對不起，在這些盒子上。我認為其中許多將繼續是我們正在進行的混合用途開發。顯然，如果是在封閉的購物中心開業，有餐廳和娛樂場所等，效果非常好。所以我們有一些正在建造或即將建造。但我們實際上並沒有現有的管道，除非我們達成更多交易來買回一些盒子。它並不像你想像的那麼大。這只是少數。

Now Macy's, is you're right, they announced some store closings, none of which are ours. So we're always very focused on knowing exactly where we might be at risk. No. And I would point out, very importantly, when Sears went out of business, the whole market said how are you going to survive Sears going out of the business? There's [800] good department stores at that time, frankly, they're down to, believe it or not, operating maybe 5, 6, 7, 8. I think we actually have the most between us and the [Taubman] portfolio. But how are you going to survive it? The fact of the matter is it was a nonevent to the mall customer. And if anything, as we've gotten those boxes back, we've made the center better. So as we look -- we don't look at box -- the changes in box as a concern. We view it really more aggressively and progressively as something that will enhance the properties portfolio. And the assets that we're worried about that couldn't survive that basically don't exist in our portfolio anymore. So if you ask me that question 10 years ago, I might have a different answer.

現在梅西百貨，你是對的，他們宣布關閉一些商店，其中沒有一家不是我們的。因此，我們總是非常專注於準確了解我們可能面臨風險的地方。不。我想指出，非常重要的是，當西爾斯倒閉時，整個市場都在說，你將如何在西爾斯倒閉時生存？當時有[800]家優秀的百貨公司，坦白說，不管你信不信，他們經營的可能是5、6、7、8家。我認為我們和[Taubman]投資組合之間實際上擁有最多的百貨公司。但你要如何生存呢？事實上，這對商場顧客來說並不是什麼大事。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是當我們拿回那些盒子時，我們已經讓中心變得更好了。因此，當我們看時——我們不看盒子——盒子的變化是一個值得關注的問題。我們認為它確實會更加積極和漸進地增強房地產投資組合。我們擔心無法生存的資產基本上不再存在於我們的投資組合中。所以如果你十年前問我這個問題，我可能會有不同的答案。

Craig, I hope you get better prior to the Sydney conference, I'm sure you will. But it sounds like you've lost your voice.

克雷格，我希望你在雪梨會議前能好起來，我相信你會的。但聽起來你已經失聲了。

Yes. Hope to be on the mend by then.

是的。希望到時候能好起來。

Our next question is from Vince Tibone with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Vince Tibone。

Could you help me better understand how much incremental FFO we should expect in '24 from development or redevelopment projects that stabilized either later in '23 or slated to be finished in '24? Just any color to help us better understand the timing of incremental NOI and FFO from all the development activities would be helpful.

您能否幫助我更了解我們應該期望在 24 年從開發或再開發專案中增加多少 FFO，這些專案要么在 23 年晚些時候穩定下來，要么預計在 24 年完成？只要任何顏色可以幫助我們更好地理解所有開發活動中增量 NOI 和 FFO 的時間都會有所幫助。

Yes. In fact, it's interesting. You actually take us -- I think in '24, we're taking a step back. I'll just give you a trivial example. I mentioned Brian now for the third time, but we have a whole wing that's connected to the former Sears department store that we're redeveloping, plus an outdoor shop. We're building a Dick's sporting goods. We have a lifetime fitness resorts and then we'll do roughly 350 apartments or so. But that wing leading to Sears, we've had to de-lease it to ultimately put in not sure I'm allowed to say it, but I'll say it anyway, Zara and Uniqlo. And they won't open until end of '24 best case. So by and large, all of the stuff in the U.K. that we've listed, and I don't believe in the air, if it is, just it will be there shortly. None of that is really -- it really gets in '24. We do have Tulsa opening in the late summer. That will have a marginal impact leasing is going well. But with all the redeveloping, this is really more of a '25, '26 story. And the one that we'll see the benefit of this year, and I don't have a number handy is [fixed] which we opened in '23. That's kind of the one that I would say most meaningful, but most of the redevelopment is a '25, '26 story.

是的。事實上，這很有趣。實際上，我認為在 24 年，我們正在退後一步。我只給你一個簡單的例子。我現在第三次提到布萊恩，但我們有一整棟翼樓與我們正在重建的前西爾斯百貨商店相連，還有一家戶外商店。我們正在生產迪克體育用品。我們有終身健身度假村，然後我們將建造大約 350 套公寓。但通往西爾斯的那個翼樓，我們不得不把它租出去，最終把它放進去，不確定我是否可以這麼說，但無論如何我都會這麼說，Zara和優衣庫。最好的情況是，他們要到 24 年底才會開放。總的來說，我們在英國列出的所有東西，我不相信空氣中的空氣，如果有的話，它很快就會在那裡。這些都不是真正的——它真的是在 24 年發生的。我們的塔爾薩確實會在夏末開業。這將對租賃進展順利產生邊際影響。但隨著所有的重新開發，這實際上更像是一個 25 年、26 年的故事。我們將看到今年的好處，但我沒有方便的數字是[固定]，我們在 23 年開業。我認為這是最有意義的，但大部分重建工作都是 25、26 年的故事。

No, that's really helpful. I mean, is there any like for -- just in terms of, I guess, the $1.3 billion that's acted today, plus the $800 million you're going to start. I mean, what's a fair assumption for '25, '26 in terms of level of maybe spend stabilizing? I mean, that's how we model it like it's $500 million stabilizing annually, let's call it, 7%, 8% yield a fair assumption? Or -- and that's what I'm trying to get out, like how quickly...

不，這真的很有幫助。我的意思是，我想，就今天已採取行動的 13 億美元，加上您將要啟動的 8 億美元而言，是否有類似的情況。我的意思是，就支出穩定水準而言，25、26 年的合理假設是什麼？我的意思是，我們就是這樣建模的，就像每年 5 億美元穩定一樣，我們稱之為 7%、8% 的收益率是一個合理的假設嗎？或者——這就是我想要表達的，比如多快......

Yes. No. I appreciate that. If you don't include what I saw, ground up new development, I would say probably about between $600 million and $800 million a year. And our goal would hopefully be to bring that in at north of 8%. Obviously, if it is multifamily, you can still create value at a lower yield than that. And in some cases, we're building at a lower yield than that, like for instance, both [Brea's] apartments and the ones that we're building at the former Northgate Mall, we're basically about to start construction there. We'll be subbing -- so it may round down that 8%. But if you're talking kind of everything else, we would hope to be north of that.

是的。不，我很欣賞這一點。如果你不包括我所看到的、新開發的內容，我想說每年可能在 6 億到 8 億美元之間。我們的目標是希望將這一比例提高到 8% 以上。顯然，如果是多戶住宅，您仍然可以以較低的收益率創造價值。在某些情況下，我們建造的產量比這要低，例如，[布雷亞]的公寓和我們在前北門購物中心建造的公寓，我們基本上即將在那裡開始建造。我們將進行替補——因此可能會向下舍入 8%。但如果你談論的是其他一切，我們希望能超越這一點。

Our next question is from Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ron Kamdem。

Great. Just a 2-part really quickly, starting with the core NOI. Just in '24, can you just touch on the tourist centers and how much recovery there is and how much upside for volume to '24 as well as the variable to fixed conversion? Just trying to get a sense of how much of a tailwind that is to the core. And then on the sort of other platform investment, maybe could you just touch on what seasonality should we be thinking about between sort of the first part of the year and 4Q?

偉大的。非常快速地只有兩個部分，從核心 NOI 開始。就在 24 年，您能談談旅遊中心的情況嗎？有多少復甦，到 24 年的交易量以及可變到固定的轉換有多少上升空間？只是想了解這對核心有多大的推動力。然後，在其他平台投資方面，也許您能否談談我們應該考慮今年上半年和第四季之間的季節性？

Sure. So -- and Brian will chime in here. I'll just give you some thoughts on my head and then Brian, hopefully will agree or correct me. So I would say we saw in '23 a really decent bounce back from the tourist centers. Now I give you a great example. So -- and I was just happy to look at this for -- I must have been probably doing my job, but I noticed in Q4, Q4 is an example of the bounce back with very -- Q4 sales were around $350 million, okay, which, to me, is a real good indicator bounce back and obviously, the highest fourth quarter sales we've had there in quite some time. So I'd say, generally, we're seeing a really good bounce back in the tourist centers. I don't think we -- the one area that the U.S. overall, and obviously, will have an impact on us. I do not think we'll see the Chinese -- we do not expect the Chinese to come back the way they have had before pandemic.

當然。所以——布萊恩會在這裡插話。我只是給你一些我的想法，然後布萊恩希望能同意或糾正我。所以我想說，我們在 23 年看到了旅遊中心的真正強勁反彈。現在我給你一個很好的例子。所以 - 我很高興看到這個 - 我可能一直在做我的工作，但我注意到在第四季度，第四季度是反彈的一個例子 - 第四季度的銷售額約為 3.5 億美元，好吧對我來說，這是一個真正好的反彈指標，顯然，這是我們相當長一段時間以來第四季銷售額最高的。所以我想說，總的來說，我們在旅遊中心看到了非常好的反彈。我認為我們——美國整體上顯然不會對我們產生影響的一個領域。我認為我們不會看到中國人——我們不指望中國人會像大流行前那樣恢復過來。

And our -- and just our tourist centers did outpace our sales for the portfolio for '23 on average. So good bounce back across the board. And then I would say on your variable rent, we continue to see that as a lower percent of revenues both the vast majority, I think we increased our -- the way to think about it that's interesting is -- and again, hopefully, Brian won't need to correct me, but Brian is available to correct me. Our domestic operations had $0.28 of improvement Q-over-Q. That's $0.28. And within that $0.28, our variable income went down. So I think that gives you kind of a leading barometer, we're still working that way down, and we're getting that into kind of our base rent. So -- and then your final on OPI, loss Q1, relatively flat Q2, Q3 and then most of it in Q4. Q2 is a little better than Q3 usual, but on the margin. And it's only -- we're only projecting this year, $0.10 to $0.15.

我們的——而且只是我們的旅遊中心確實超過了我們 23 年投資組合的平均銷售額。全面反彈非常好。然後我想說的是，關於可變租金，我們繼續看到，絕大多數收入的百分比都較低，我認為我們增加了——有趣的思考方式是——再次，希望布萊恩不需要糾正我，但布萊恩可以糾正我。我們的國內業務環比改善了 0.28 美元。也就是 0.28 美元。在這 0.28 美元內，我們的可變收入下降了。所以我認為這給了你一個領先的晴雨表，我們仍在繼續努力，並將其納入我們的基本租金中。那麼，然後是 OPI 的最終結果，第一季虧損，第二季、第三季相對持平，然後是第四季的大部分。第二季比平常的第三季好一點，但也好一點。我們僅預測今年的價格為 0.10 至 0.15 美元。

Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的格雷格·麥金尼斯。

David, I just wanted to dig into the guidance a bit at OPI that you just cited in particular. Is it fair to assume that the $0.10 to $0.15 includes gains or monetization similar to last year or operations expected to improve from the minus $0.02 contribution to FFO in 2023?

David，我只是想深入了解您剛才特別引用的 OPI 指南。假設 0.10 至 0.15 美元包括與去年類似的收益或貨幣化，或預計 2023 年 FFO 的負 0.02 美元貢獻將有所改善，這是否公平？

Yes. Thank you for that question. And the answer, no. That's pure operations. And no onetime or sale gains or any of that are in there. And yes, I mean just by -- I mean, we had a -- we had a tough '23 in OPI. We saw -- we didn't meet our -- both our budgeted expectations and our expectations is kind of big year when we recalibrated it. And the team in OPI, again, we're partners with. So it's not just us, we're partners, are making significant efforts within their own business to improve performance. And again, the overriding thing was -- and we should be sensitive to this across the board. The overriding theme was the lower-income consumer still with inflation and embedded even though inflation has subsided, they're still dealing with things that cost a lot more money than they used to. And the good news is their income is increasing, but it's still not in a position that they have the discretionary income that they need and they deserve. And we need to figure that out as a country.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。答案是否定的。那是純操作。而且裡面沒有一次性收益或銷售收益或任何其他收益。是的，我的意思是——我的意思是，我們在 OPI 方面經歷了艱難的 23 年。我們看到——我們沒有達到我們的——我們的預算預期，當我們重新調整它時，我們的預期是重要的一年。我們再次與 OPI 團隊合作。因此，不僅是我們，我們也是合作夥伴，正在自己的業務中做出重大努力來提高績效。再說一遍，最重要的是──我們應該對此全面敏感。最重要的主題是低收入消費者仍然面臨通貨膨脹，即使通貨膨脹已經消退，他們仍然在處理比以前花費更多錢的事情。好消息是他們的收入正在增加，但他們仍然無法獲得他們需要和應得的可自由支配收入。作為一個國家，我們需要弄清楚這一點。

So just to clarify...

所以只是為了澄清...

So no. Yes. So hopefully, I answered. So no onetime gains. Hopefully, the -- we're being conservative, and that's kind of where the numbers are. And just to take a step back, we're kind of getting OPI in this level where it was pre the extraordinary year of '21, '22, if you go back in time. This is kind of where the number was, nobody cared. We really outpaced ourselves and at extraordinary '21 and '22. And I think now we're kind of getting back to a kind of a more stabilized number.

所以不行。是的。所以希望我回答了。所以沒有一次性收益。希望我們是保守的，這就是數字所在。退一步來說，如果你時光倒流，我們的 OPI 就處於 21 世紀 22 世紀非凡年份之前的水平。這就是數字所在的地方，沒人關心。我們確實超越了自己，在非凡的 21 和 22 年。我認為現在我們正在回到一個更穩定的數字。

So just to clarify, so there's going to be some improvements in operations, I guess, that are going to be kind of driving this year-over-year growth. But what do you think that implies in terms of the operational standpoint and the customer for your other tenants in the portfolio? How are those retailers performing? And are they going to be able to make the same sort of operational changes to benefit income?

所以澄清一下，我想，營運方面將會有一些改進，這將推動今年的年成長。但您認為這對於投資組合中其他租戶的營運角度和客戶意味著什麼？這些零售商的表現如何？他們是否能夠做出同樣類型的營運變革以增加收入？

Well, you're just talking about our tenant base now, is that the question? Or...

好吧，你現在只是在談論我們的租戶基礎，這是問題嗎？或者...

I guess (inaudible) plus your tenants, yes.

我想（聽不清楚）加上你的租戶，是的。

Okay. Well, like I said, the ones in SPARC and Penny, I really spoke to. I mean, I think generally, the plan that they have in place we think we're on the right track, and we're all working very hard to produce these results and hopefully we'll do better than that. Again, I mentioned to you, we're kind of getting back to where we used to be. And if you look at it in conjunction with pre-pandemic '18/'19, that's kind of where the number was. And we really outperformed in '21, '22, and we really underperformed in '23. As simple as that. Brands are good. Businesses are -- have the right game plan and we're moving. I would -- so that's SPARC, Penny, any questions on that, then I'll move to your other questions. I mean, retail is very specific. So I think our retailers, they're generally -- the credit is in really good shape. There's always 1 or 2 or 3 tenants that we are somewhat nervous about. But there -- they all understand the importance of bricks and mortar. They're reinvesting in their stores. They're spending less on technology, which is good for us, putting more money back in the stores. And they're open to buying. The return on investment in stores is a proven financial model, they're doing that. So I'd say generally, comfortable, very comfortable with all the retailers that we're doing business with. There will always be a couple here and there that have to sort through their financial issues.

好的。嗯，就像我說的，我確實和 SPARC 和 Penny 的那些人談過。我的意思是，我認為總的來說，他們制定的計劃我們認為我們走在正確的軌道上，我們都在非常努力地取得這些成果，希望我們能做得更好。我再次向你提到，我們正在回到以前的狀態。如果你將其與大流行前的“18/19”結合起來看，那就是這個數字。我們在 21 年、22 年確實表現出色，而在 23 年我們確實表現不佳。就如此容易。品牌都不錯。企業有正確的遊戲計劃，我們就在行動。我會——這就是 SPARC，Penny，如果有任何問題，那麼我將轉向您的其他問題。我的意思是，零售業是非常具體的。所以我認為我們的零售商整體來說信用狀況非常好。總是有 1、2、3 個租戶讓我們有點緊張。但在那裡，他們都明白實體的重要性。他們正在對商店進行再投資。他們在技術上的支出減少了，這對我們有好處，並把更多的錢重新投入商店。他們願意購買。商店的投資回報是一個經過驗證的財務模型，他們正在這樣做。所以我想說，總的來說，我們對所有與我們有業務往來的零售商都很滿意。總是會有一些夫妻需要解決他們的財務問題。

Our next question is from Hong Zhang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的張宏。

I guess -- I was wondering if you could quantify the magnitude of the development drag this year. And also, it seems like you saw a very strong rent and occupancy growth in the Taubman portfolio in the fourth quarter. Wondering what drove that and what are your expectations for that portfolio this year as well?

我想 - 我想知道你是否可以量化今年發展阻力的程度。而且，您似乎看到陶布曼投資組合第四季的租金和入住率成長非常強勁。想知道是什麼推動了這一趨勢？您對今年的投資組合有何期望？

Just on Taubman, I mean, our expectations on the comp NOI are roughly right on -- in excess of 3%. What drove both portfolios really is supply and demand onto retail sales, operational excellence, all the things that I mentioned earlier. So listen, we're a big company. We did have some drag from redevelopment, but it's not -- it's not an excuse. We don't worry about it. It -- and it's not so much big redevelopment. You -- when you retenant a mall, you have downtime. And as I've mentioned this before, the better the tenant, the better the build out. And in some cases, build out is 6 to 9 months and restaurants can be even close to a year. And as you know, we have -- our portfolio restaurant new business is at least 100 new restaurants over the next year or so. So it -- it is a long arduous process, getting permits. I mean, we had a crazy thing in the Bay Area where they couldn't hook up the gas for a while, encourage you to read the Supreme Court overruling of an ordinance in Berkeley that affected Palo Alto. If you're really bored, you can read it. We finally got gas back into the center. And as you know, chefs like to cook with gas. So it was -- it cost us 6 months and the delay -- I mean, that's normal. But I'd say the bigger issue on -- just -- is not so much redevelopment and really retenanting. And I would say by and large, if I had to make up a number, it costs us probably $0.10 to $0.20 a year just downtime. But that's a guess.

我的意思是，就陶布曼而言，我們對公司 NOI 的預期大致正確——超過 3%。推動這兩個投資組合的真正因素是零售銷售的供需、卓越營運以及我之前提到的所有內容。聽著，我們是一家大公司。我們確實受到了重建的一些拖累，但這不是——這不是藉口。我們不擔心這個。它——而且並不是大規模的重建。當你重新租用一家購物中心時，你就會有停機時間。正如我之前提到的，租戶越好，建築就越好。在某些情況下，建造時間為 6 至 9 個月，而餐廳甚至可能接近一年。如您所知，我們的投資組合餐廳新業務是在未來一年左右開設至少 100 家新餐廳。因此，獲得許可是一個漫長而艱鉅的過程。我的意思是，我們在灣區發生了一件瘋狂的事情，他們有一段時間無法接通燃氣，鼓勵您閱讀最高法院推翻了伯克利影響帕洛阿爾託的一項法令。如果實在無聊的話，可以讀。我們終於讓氣體回到中心了。如您所知，廚師喜歡用瓦斯做飯。所以，我們花了 6 個月的時間，而且延誤了，我的意思是，這很正常。但我想說，更大的問題不是重建和真正的重新出租。我想說，總的來說，如果我必須編造一個數字，光是停機時間，我們每年可能要花費 0.10 到 0.20 美元。但這只是猜測。

Our next question is from Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Ki Bin Kim。

Just a couple of questions. First, your operating expenses were down in 4Q. Also just curious what drove that and if that's sustainable?

只是幾個問題。首先，第四季的營運費用有所下降。我也只是好奇是什麼推動了這一點，這是否可持續？

Yes, Ki, it's Brian. Yes, we did see some savings year-over-year. There was some seasonality to it. Weather was a little bit lighter. But yes, we do expect it's sustainable.

是的，基，我是布萊恩。是的，我們確實看到逐年節省了一些費用。它有一些季節性。天氣稍微晴朗一些。但是，是的，我們確實希望它是可持續的。

Okay. And on the ABG partial sale, was that a down round valuation versus the $18 billion mark previously?

好的。對於 ABG 的部分出售，相對於之前 180 億美元的估值，這是否是一個下調的估值？

No.

不。

Yes. Remember, that, that was the enterprise value. They have some debt. So that was an equity value. It was -- so just when you say $18 billion, that's enterprise value as opposed to equity value.

是的。請記住，這就是企業價值。他們有一些債務。這就是股權價值。所以當你說 180 億美元時，這是企業價值而不是股權價值。

Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Haendel St. Juste。

Question I have is on your signed but not yet open pipeline. I think last quarter or you previously outlined is about 200 basis points of embedded occupancy from that signed but not yet open pipeline. So maybe you can give us an update on where that stands today? And then also maybe what's embedded in the guide for bad debt and lease term fees this year?

我的問題是關於您已簽署但尚未開放的管道。我認為上個季度或您之前概述的嵌入佔用率比已簽署但尚未開放的管道增加了約 200 個基點。那麼也許您可以向我們介紹一下目前的最新情況嗎？今年的壞帳和租賃期限費用指南可能包含哪些內容？

So signed but not opened is a little bit north of 200 basis points. We've been kind of holding that as we open stores and sign new leases. So we're holding steady around 200 basis points. We are assuming a normal level of bad debt, which is about 25 basis points of total revenue would be our expectation on that.

因此已簽署但未開放的價格略高於 200 個基點。當我們開設商店並簽署新租約時，我們一直堅持這一點。因此我們保持穩定在 200 個基點左右。我們假設壞帳處於正常水平，我們對此的預期約為總收入的 25 個基點。

Lease term fees?

租賃期限費用？

Normal rate of lease term fees, I think the answer -- the number for the year is about $30 million, estimate.

我認為答案是正常的租賃期限費用——估計今年的數字約為 3000 萬美元。

Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

Just a quick one for me. Just curious on the current state of affairs with Jamestown and how that relationship is progressing. More talk about mixed use. So just curious if there's anything in the works or in the planning stages that you're doing with them and how you're thinking about that particular relationship?

對我來說只是一個快速的。只是對詹姆斯敦目前的狀況以及這種關係進展如何感到好奇。多談混合使用。所以只是想知道您是否正在與他們合作或在計劃階段做任何事情，以及您如何看待這種特定的關係？

Yes. Thank you. So we're -- we haven't quite had a year under our belt, but very pleased with the relationship and the partnership. And we continue to look at opportunities, both within our pipeline and obviously, what they do on behalf of investors. So a lot of good feedback going both ways. And we haven't -- we're working on one project. I mean, we have one development project we're working on together. But other than that, it's a lot of corporate. There's -- it's more strategic and more corporate, more of a corporate discussion than property level specifics other than one where we are partners on and going through a development process in that now in the Southeast.

是的。謝謝。所以我們——我們還沒有完全度過一年，但對這段關係和夥伴關係非常滿意。我們繼續尋找機會，無論是在我們的管道內，還是它們代表投資者所做的事情。所以很多好的回饋都是雙向的。我們還沒有——我們正在開發一個專案。我的意思是，我們正在共同開發一個開發專案。但除此之外，還有很多企業。這是更具策略性和企業性的，更多的是企業討論，而不是財產層級的具體細節，除了我們是合作夥伴並正在經歷東南部的開發過程之外。

There are no further question at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to the management for closing comments.

目前沒有進一步的問題。我想將發言權交還給管理層以徵求結束意見。

Okay. Thank you. And obviously, Tom and Brian are available, and we really appreciate everybody's participation. Talk to you soon.

好的。謝謝。顯然，湯姆和布萊恩都有空，我們非常感謝大家的參與。以後再聊。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。