西蒙地產 (SPG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Simon Property Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎來到西蒙地產集團 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在錄製此會議。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Tom Ward. You may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給主持人 Tom Ward。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Sammy. Good evening from Atlanta. Thank you for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call is David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Also on the call are Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer; and Adam Reuille, Chief Accounting Officer.

謝謝你，薩米。晚上好，來自亞特蘭大。感謝您今晚加入我們。出席今天電話會議的是董事長、首席執行官兼總裁戴維·西蒙 (David Simon)。與會的還有首席財務官 Brian McDade；和首席會計官 Adam Reuille。

A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements.

快速提醒一下，在本次電話會議中所做的陳述可能被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港含義內的前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能因各種風險、不確定性和其他因素而存在重大差異。我們建議您參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以詳細討論與這些前瞻性陳述相關的風險因素。

Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com. Our conference call this morning, this afternoon will be limited to 1 hour. For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask that you please respect our request to limit yourself to 1 question.

請注意，本次電話會議包含的信息可能僅在今天準確無誤。非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在新聞稿和今天提交的 8-K 表格中的補充信息中。新聞稿和補充信息均可在我們的 IR 網站 investors.simon.com 上獲取。我們今天上午和下午的電話會議時間限制為 1 小時。對於那些想參加問答環節的人，請尊重我們的要求，將自己限制在 1 個問題內。

I'm pleased to introduce David Simon.

我很高興向大家介紹大衛·西蒙。

Good evening from Phipps Plaza, where we recently completed our transformation, including a new office building, a new Nobu Hotel and a Life Time resort. I'm pleased to report our fourth quarter and full year results.

晚上好，Phipps Plaza，我們最近完成了改造，包括新辦公樓、新 Nobu 酒店和 Life Time 度假村。我很高興地報告我們的第四季度和全年業績。

We generated approximately $4.5 billion in FFO in 2022 or $11.95 per share. On a comparable basis, full year FFO per share was $11.87, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year. We returned approximately $2.8 billion to shareholders in dividends and shares. And total dividends today paid since our IPO now totals approximately $39 billion. We invested approximately $1 billion, including accretive development projects and expanding our other investment platform into the growing asset and investment management businesses with our Jamestown partnership. These consistent strong results are testament to the quality of our portfolio, a relentless focus on operational and cost structure, disciplined capital allocation and our team's commitment to our shoppers and communities.

我們在 2022 年產生了大約 45 億美元的 FFO 或每股 11.95 美元。在可比基礎上，全年每股 FFO 為 11.87 美元，同比增長 3.8%。我們以股息和股票的形式向股東返還了約 28 億美元。自我們首次公開募股以來，今天支付的股息總額現在約為 390 億美元。我們投資了大約 10 億美元，包括增值開發項目，以及通過我們與 Jamestown 的合作夥伴關係將我們的其他投資平台擴展到不斷增長的資產和投資管理業務。這些持續強勁的業績證明了我們產品組合的質量、對運營和成本結構的不懈關注、嚴格的資本分配以及我們團隊對購物者和社區的承諾。

Fourth quarter funds from operations were $1.27 billion or $3.40 per share. Included in the fourth quarter results was a net gain of $0.25 per share, principally from the sale of our interest in the Eddie Bauer licensing JV in exchange for additional equity ownership in Authentic Brands Group, Authentic. We now own 12% of Authentic valued at approximately $1.5 billion.

第四季度運營資金為 12.7 億美元或每股 3.40 美元。第四季度業績中包括每股 0.25 美元的淨收益，主要來自出售我們在 Eddie Bauer 許可合資企業的權益，以換取 Authentic Brands Group, Authentic 的額外股權。我們現在擁有 Authentic 12% 的股份，價值約 15 億美元。

Let me walk through some variances for this quarter compared to Q4 of 2021. Our domestic operations had a very good quarter and contributed $0.23 of growth, driven primarily by higher rental income and with some lower operating expenses. These positive contributions were partially offset by higher interest expense of $0.03 at a $0.15 lower contribution from our other platform investments.

讓我來看看本季度與 2021 年第四季度相比的一些差異。我們的國內業務季度表現非常好，貢獻了 0.23 美元的增長，這主要是由於租金收入增加和運營費用降低。這些積極的貢獻被我們其他平台投資的 0.15 美元較低的利息支出增加 0.03 美元部分抵消。

2021 was a great year for our retailers. However, in 2022, Forever 21 and JCPenney were affected by inflationary pressures and consumers reducing their spend. Despite not achieving the same profitability that we did in 2021, we are pleased on how we and the management teams dealt with the unanticipated external environment.

2021 年對我們的零售商來說是豐收的一年。然而，在 2022 年，Forever 21 和 JCPenney 受到通脹壓力和消費者減少支出的影響。儘管沒有實現與 2021 年相同的盈利能力，但我們對我們和管理團隊如何應對意想不到的外部環境感到滿意。

Turning to domestic property NOI. We increased 5.8% year-over-year for the quarter and 4.8% for the year. Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency grew 6.3% for the quarter and 5.7% for the year. Occupancy for malls and outlets at the end of the fourth quarter was 94.9%, an increase of 150 basis points compared to prior year and an increase of 40 basis points sequentially. Renewals occupancy was 98.2%, and TRG was 94.5%. Average base minimum rent was $55.13 per foot, an increase of 2.3% year-over-year.

轉向國內房地產 NOI。我們本季度同比增長 5.8%，全年增長 4.8%。投資組合 NOI，包括我們按固定匯率計算的國際資產，本季度增長 6.3%，全年增長 5.7%。第四季度末購物中心和奧特萊斯的入住率為 94.9%，比去年同期增長 150 個基點，環比增長 40 個基點。續訂入住率為 98.2%，TRG 為 94.5%。平均最低基本租金為每英尺 55.13 美元，同比增長 2.3%。

For the year, we signed 4,100 leases for more than 14 million square feet. Over 2 years, we've now signed 8,000 leases for more than 29 million square feet, and we have a significant number of leases in our pipeline that will open for a late 2023 and 2024 openings. Reported retailer sales momentum continued. We reached another record in the fourth quarter at $753 per square foot with the malls and outlets combined, an increase of 6% year-over-year.

這一年，我們簽署了 4,100 份租約，面積超過 1,400 萬平方英尺。兩年多來，我們現在已經簽署了 8,000 份租約，面積超過 2,900 萬平方英尺，而且我們還有大量租約將在 2023 年底和 2024 年開放。報告的零售商銷售勢頭持續。我們在第四季度再創新高，購物中心和奧特萊斯合計達到每平方英尺 753 美元，同比增長 6%。

All platforms achieved record sales levels, including the mills, it's $679 per square foot which was a 5% increase. TRG was $1,095 per square foot, an 11% increase, and our occupancy at the end of the fourth quarter was 12%.

所有平台都達到了創紀錄的銷售水平，包括工廠，每平方英尺 679 美元，增長了 5%。 TRG 為每平方英尺 1,095 美元，增長 11%，我們在第四季度末的入住率為 12%。

We opened a new development in 2022, our 10th premium outlet in Japan. Construction continues, our new outlet in Normandy, France, west of Paris. This will be our second outlet in France and our 35th international outlet. Our international outlet platform is a hidden jewel for SPG. As a frame of reference, it is bigger and much more profitable with much higher sales per square foot than another public company's portfolio.

我們於 2022 年開設了一個新開發項目，這是我們在日本的第 10 家高級奧特萊斯。我們在巴黎以西的法國諾曼底的新店仍在建設中。這將是我們在法國的第二家分店，也是我們的第 35 家國際分店。我們的國際奧特萊斯平台是 SPG 俱樂部一顆隱藏的寶石。作為參考，它比另一家上市公司的投資組合更大，利潤也更高，每平方英尺的銷售額也更高。

We completed 14 redevelopments, and we will complete another major redevelopment project this year at some of our most productive properties. In addition, we expect to begin construction this year on 6 to 8 mixed-use projects. All of this will be funded with our internally generated cash flow.

我們完成了 14 個重建項目，今年我們將在一些最俱生產力的物業中完成另一個重大重建項目。此外，我們預計今年將開始建設 6 至 8 個混合用途項目。所有這些都將由我們內部產生的現金流提供資金。

Now turning to other platform investments in the fourth quarter, it contributed $0.23 per share in FFO compared to $0.38 in the prior year period. For the year, OPI contributed $0.64 in FFO compared to $1.07 in the prior year. We are pleased with the contribution from our OPI investments, especially given our de minimis cash investment we've made in these companies.

現在轉向第四季度的其他平台投資，它為 FFO 貢獻了每股 0.23 美元，而去年同期為 0.38 美元。今年，OPI 貢獻了 0.64 美元的 FFO，而上一年為 1.07 美元。我們對 OPI 投資的貢獻感到滿意，特別是考慮到我們對這些公司進行的微量現金投資。

Turning to the balance sheet. We completed refinancing on 20 property mortgages for a total of $2.3 billion at an average interest rate of 5.33%. Our A-rated balance sheet is as strong as ever. Our fixed coverage ratio is 4.8x, and we ended the year with approximately $7.8 billion of liquidity. In 2022, we paid approximately $2.6 billion of common stock dividends in cash. We announced $1.80 per share this quarter, which is a 9% increase over the same period last year. The dividend is payable at the end of March -- at the end of this quarter, on March 31. We also repurchased 1.8 million shares of our common stock at an average purchase price of $98.57 in 2022.

轉向資產負債表。我們以 5.33% 的平均利率完成了 20 項房產抵押貸款的再融資，總額為 23 億美元。我們的 A 級資產負債表一如既往地強勁。我們的固定覆蓋率為 4.8 倍，年底我們的流動資金約為 78 億美元。 2022 年，我們以現金支付了約 26 億美元的普通股股息。我們本季度宣布每股收益為 1.80 美元，比去年同期增長 9%。股息將於 3 月底支付，也就是本季度末的 3 月 31 日。我們還在 2022 年以 98.57 美元的平均購買價回購了 180 萬股普通股。

Moving on to '23. Our comparable FFO guidance is $11.70 to $11.95 per share. Our guidance reflects the following assumptions: domestic property NOI growth of at least 2%; increased interest expense compared to 2022 of approximately $0.30 to $0.35 per share, reflecting current market interest rates on both fixed and variable debt assumptions; similar OPI investment contribution, FFO contribution compared to 2022; the continuing impact of the strong U.S. dollar versus the euro and the yen; no significant acquisition or disposition activity; and a diluted share count of approximately 374 million shares.

繼續前進到'23。我們可比的 FFO 指導價為每股 11.70 美元至 11.95 美元。我們的指引反映了以下假設：國內房地產 NOI 增長至少 2%；與 2022 年相比，每股利息支出增加了約 0.30 美元至 0.35 美元，反映了固定和可變債務假設下的當前市場利率；與 2022 年相比類似的 OPI 投資貢獻、FFO 貢獻；美元兌歐元和日元走強的持續影響；無重大收購或處置活動；稀釋後的股份數量約為 3.74 億股。

To conclude, we had another excellent year, effectively navigating external headwinds that included rising interest rates, strong U.S. dollars, inflation and a somewhat softening economy. We have consistently posted industry-leading results through our hard work, innovation, great people and great assets, and we are -- continue to be excited about our plans for 2023. If you come to Atlanta, you will see what we're doing, and it's a great example of the future growth prospects of our company. And will now allow for Q&A. Thank you.

總而言之，我們又度過了一個出色的一年，有效地應對了外部逆風，包括利率上升、美元走強、通貨膨脹和經濟有所疲軟。通過我們的辛勤工作、創新、優秀的人才和優秀的資產，我們一直取得行業領先的成果，我們對 2023 年的計劃繼續感到興奮。如果你來亞特蘭大，你會看到我們正在做的事情，這是我們公司未來發展前景的一個很好的例子。現在將允許進行問答。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ronald Kamdem。

Great. Just starting with the guidance of at least 2% sort of organic growth next year, obviously, occupancy is already back to 95%. Just a little bit more color on that. How much of that is occupancy gain? How much of that is rent bumps? Just trying to get a sense of what's driving that.

偉大的。從明年至少 2% 的有機增長的指導開始，顯然，入住率已經回到 95%。只是多一點顏色。其中有多少是入住率收益？其中有多少是租金上漲？只是想了解是什麼在推動它。

Well, I think it's all the above. It's rent bumps, it's occupancy gains. We still -- and this is very important to underscore. We still have a lot of openings scheduled for the latter half of '23 and the early part of '24. So we're not going to see the full contribution of those tenants open until essentially really a run rate at '24, I'd say, sometime in '24. Now you ask why?

好吧，我想就是以上這些。這是租金上漲，是入住率上漲。我們仍然 - 強調這一點非常重要。我們仍然有很多計劃在 23 年下半年和 24 年早期開放。所以我們不會看到這些租戶的全部貢獻開放，直到基本上真正在 24 年運行率，我會說，在 24 年的某個時候。現在你問為什麼？

Well, because we have a high-quality group of retailers opening in these, and it takes a while to build out their quality stores. But it's occupancy gains, it's rental -- it's spread increases. It's a reduction in our temporary tenant income because we're leasing space permanently. And it's basically assuming that -- a lot goes into this, but it's basically assuming relatively flat sales.

好吧，因為我們有一批高質量的零售商在這些地方開業，而建立他們的優質商店需要一段時間。但這是入住率的提高，是租金的增長——這是利差的增加。這是我們臨時租戶收入的減少，因為我們永久租賃空間。而且它基本上假設 - 這其中有很多內容，但它基本上假設銷售額相對平穩。

Now if you remember last year, we said up to 2%. This year, we obviously blew past it. It was total for the domestic properties at clearly 5%, roughly 5%, 4.8%. So we're hopeful we'll do better. But again, we still have to make assumptions and that's why we like where we're at. And the biggest assumption that is somewhat of the unknown sales.

如果你還記得去年，我們說最多 2%。今年，我們顯然超越了它。國內物業的總和明顯為 5%，大約為 5%，4.8%。所以我們希望我們會做得更好。但同樣，我們仍然必須做出假設，這就是為什麼我們喜歡我們所處的位置。最大的假設是某種程度上未知的銷售。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I guess as you think about your other platform investments and some of the monetizations that you talked about with Authentic Brands, how do you sort of think about those on a go-forward basis against maybe making new investments in new retailers that may be struggling at this time?

我想當你考慮你的其他平台投資和你與 Authentic Brands 談到的一些貨幣化時，你如何看待那些在前進的基礎上可能對可能正在苦苦掙扎的新零售商進行新投資這次？

Well, we have a unique relations, relationship with Authentic. That's a very important partnership, so to speak, both as a big shareholder, but also we're 50% owners together, 50% for us, 50% for Authentic in SPARC. And we have a different ownership structure with JCPenney. We don't really have any plans to -- for SPARC to buy additional retailers. We're very opportunistic on that. We had a very busy year last year with Reebok, where SPARC became the operating -- domestic operating partner for Reebok. More -- a very complicated deal. As you remember, we've had -- depressed earnings. We mentioned that to you early last year, that it did depress earnings because we had -- we knew we had some losses to occur this year. So hopefully, we'll be past that this year.

嗯，我們有一種獨特的關係，與 Authentic 的關係。這是一個非常重要的合作夥伴關係，可以這麼說，既是大股東，又是我們共同擁有 50% 的股份，我們佔 50%，SPARC 的 Authentic 佔 50%。我們與 JCPenney 的所有權結構不同。我們真的沒有任何計劃——讓 SPARC 購買更多的零售商。我們對此非常投機。去年我們與銳步度過了非常忙碌的一年，SPARC 成為銳步的國內運營合作夥伴。更多 - 一個非常複雜的交易。正如你記得的那樣，我們的收入低迷。我們在去年初向您提到過，這確實壓低了收益，因為我們知道今年會出現一些虧損。所以希望我們今年能度過難關。

But we really don't have any plans to acquire anything. If we do, it will be opportunistically. And just to -- we really -- we've done our -- most of our work has been with -- on the bankruptcy front or where somebody wanted to unload a business. And -- but generally, there's not a lot of distress in retail right now. I'm not saying it won't develop in the year. But there are some brands out there that are in trouble that obviously people know about. But we don't see playing in any of those situations.

但我們真的沒有任何收購任何東西的計劃。如果我們這樣做，那將是機會主義的。只是——我們真的——我們已經完成了我們的大部分工作——在破產方面或有人想要卸載業務的地方。而且——但總的來說，目前零售業並沒有太多的困境。我並不是說它不會在今年發展。但是有一些品牌陷入困境，顯然人們都知道。但我們沒有看到在任何這些情況下進行比賽。

Our next question comes from the line of Derek Johnston with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Derek Johnston。

Can we get a more granular update on Phipps Plaza? The repositioning has been open for, I'd say most, or at least part of 4Q. So I guess how is it tracking versus plan? What changes in traffic are you seeing? Or any notable change of in-line rents? Any dates would be appreciated. And then I guess lastly, the project seems to have increased your plan for accelerating some other mixed-use endeavors, I guess, with Jamestown, any more information would be helpful.

我們能否獲得有關 Phipps Plaza 的更詳細的更新信息？重新定位已經開放，我會說大部分時間，或者至少是第四季度的一部分。所以我想它是如何跟踪與計劃的？您看到交通有哪些變化？或者在線租金有什麼顯著變化？任何日期將不勝感激。然後我想最後，該項目似乎增加了你加速其他一些混合用途努力的計劃，我想，對於 Jamestown，任何更多信息都會有所幫助。

Yes. So it really just opened. So the hotel opened at the end of October, November, but it's really new. The office -- literally, the first tenant just moved in January, mid-January. We just did a tour of that. We still have a lot of lease up. Just to give you a rough number, pre-investment, Phipps stood in the low 20s of NOI. We think it will be stabilized close to 60. And we'll have invested around $350 million in it over that period of time.

是的。所以它真的剛剛打開。所以酒店是10月底、11月才開的，但是真的很新。辦公室——從字面上看，第一位租戶剛剛在一月中旬搬家。我們剛剛參觀了一下。我們還有很多租約。只是給你一個粗略的數字，投資前，菲普斯的 NOI 處於 20 多歲的低位。我們認為它會穩定在接近 60。我們將在這段時間內投資約 3.5 億美元。

So again, we don't -- we're a big company. We don't really get into like granular detail, but we basically increased the NOI by about $35 million. Remember, this was a Belk department store. So in the Belk department store, we couldn't lease up that wing. We now have a plaza that has been created external. We announced Hermès opening into the Plaza and part of the wing that really was difficult to lease with Belk as the anchor. We have an unbelievable Life Time resort.

再一次，我們不——我們是一家大公司。我們並沒有真正深入了解細節，但我們基本上將 NOI 增加了約 3500 萬美元。請記住，這是一家貝爾克百貨公司。所以在 Belk 百貨公司，我們不能租下那個側翼。我們現在有一個在外部創建的廣場。我們宣布愛馬仕 (Hermès) 進駐廣場和部分以貝爾克為錨的很難租到的翼樓。我們有一個令人難以置信的 Life Time 度假村。

If you haven't seen what they build or their product, both with Life Time Work, the pool and the restaurants and the services and the salon and, obviously, all the fitness activities, I'd encourage you to do so. And we have a Class A plus office, the best in Buckhead that just opened. So again, low 20, 60, $350 million investment is the math.

如果你還沒有看過他們建造的東西或他們的產品，包括 Life Time Work、游泳池、餐廳、服務和沙龍，當然還有所有的健身活動，我鼓勵你去看看。我們有一間 A 級以上的辦公室，這是巴克海特 (Buckhead) 剛剛開業的最好的辦公室。所以再一次，低 20、60、3.5 億美元的投資是數學。

Now again, we're doing -- and you mentioned Jamestown. Jamestown investment is in the investment and asset management business. So these mixed-use developments that I mentioned in my call text, the 6 to 8, we're doing all of those with -- by ourselves or with partners that we've used before. So that really isn't with Jamestown. Again, we looked at the Jamestown relationship, future endeavors that we can do together or in partnership, but we're very active in building out our platform now.

現在，我們又在做——你提到了詹姆斯敦。詹姆斯敦投資從事投資和資產管理業務。因此，我在電話文本中提到的這些混合用途開發，6 到 8，我們正在與我們自己或與我們以前使用過的合作夥伴一起完成所有這些。所以這真的不是詹姆斯敦。我們再次審視了與詹姆斯敦的關係，以及我們可以共同或合作進行的未來努力，但我們現在非常積極地構建我們的平台。

And Seattle as an example, we're about to start a residence in a hotel, which finally got approved, and that's going to start construction. We can go through the list. But all that, Simon Property Group owned just like Phipps, which we own 100% of. Nobu, we own, obviously. The Life Time it was a lease and then the office building we own, too, which is all 100% owned asset. So I don't want you to confuse those 2. But that's the rough math on Phipps.

以西雅圖為例，我們要開始住酒店了，終於批下來了，要開工了。我們可以通過列表。但所有這一切，Simon Property Group 擁有 Phipps，我們擁有 100% 的股份。 Nobu，我們擁有，顯然。 Life Time 是租約，然後是我們擁有的辦公樓，也是 100% 擁有的資產。所以我不想讓你混淆這兩個。但這是 Phipps 的粗略計算。

And then the true lease up of Phipps, again, which goes back to the -- my earlier comment on the NOI. The true lease-up effects because you have -- you see Malone and some of the high-end brands building out their stores, it's not a 3-month build. It's, in many cases, 9 months to a year.

然後再次真正租用 Phipps，這可以追溯到我之前對 NOI 的評論。真正的租賃效應是因為你看到馬龍和一些高端品牌正在建設他們的商店，這不是 3 個月的建設。在許多情況下，需要 9 個月到一年。

The true offering that Phipps will have will really show in '24 when all of these retailers open the stores. So Christian Louboutin, Hermès and AKRIS and on and on. But most of those will either open late '23 or '24, and that's when Phipps really will be finished. These things don't just -- you don't just flip a switch and it opens. So that gives you a sense of it. And we think the true pro forma of this will ultimately manifest itself in year '25 or even in '26.

當所有這些零售商都開店時，Phipps 將擁有的真正產品將在 24 世紀真正展示。所以 Christian Louboutin、Hermès 和 AKRIS 等等。但其中大部分將在 23 年底或 24 年底開放，屆時 Phipps 將真正完工。這些東西不只是——你不只是輕按一下開關，它就會打開。所以這讓你感覺到它。我們認為真正的形式最終將在 25 年甚至 26 年體現出來。

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自亞歷山大·戈德法布 (Alexander Goldfarb) 和派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler) 的台詞。

So a question on the retailer brand portfolio and your equity stake in Authentic Brands. You guys have a headwind -- sorry, not a headwind. You guys have a fluctuating contribution from the retailers just based on their actual sales, right? Because it's not rents, it's based on sales. Yet I'm assuming you get some sort of recurring cash flow from the intellectual property that you own in Authentic Brands, managing the brands and all that.

因此，關於零售商品牌組合和您在 Authentic Brands 中的股權的問題。你們遇到了逆風——抱歉，不是逆風。你們只是根據他們的實際銷售額從零售商那裡得到了波動的貢獻，對嗎？因為不是租金，是按銷量算的。然而，我假設你從你在 Authentic Brands 中擁有的知識產權中獲得某種經常性現金流，管理品牌等等。

So I'm just trying to understand, as you guys sell more of the brand equity and exchange it for a bigger stake of Authentic Brands, how does your income mix switch from being solely sales-dependent to being more consistent, whether it's managing or other sorts of more regular fee income versus volatility from however many jeans or shorts are sold in a given quarter?

所以我只是想了解，當你們出售更多的品牌資產並將其換成 Authentic Brands 的更大股份時，您的收入組合如何從單純的銷售依賴轉變為更加一致，無論是管理還是其他類型的更多常規費用收入與在給定季度售出多少牛仔褲或短褲的波動性相比？

All right. You're introducing -- I'll take you through a tutorial because I like you, Alex, so here we go. SPARC operates the domestic business of the brands Lucky, Aéropostale, Forever 21, [Eddie Bauer], okay, Brooks Brothers, et cetera. It license the brands from Authentic and it pays a royalty fee to Authentic, and then we, and our partner, Authentic, and it pays rent to landlords, including Simon that will pay rent to -- Forever 21 could be in a Vornado property. In fact, it is in Times Square pays rent to Steve Roth and Vornado. And that business has operating profit. And we share in that 50-50 with Authentic. So we actually, now that we converted and exchanged our license, that we own together.

好的。你在介紹——我會帶你完成一個教程，因為我喜歡你，亞歷克斯，所以我們開始吧。 SPARC 經營 Lucky、Aéropostale、Forever 21、[Eddie Bauer]、okay、Brooks Brothers 等品牌的國內業務。它從 Authentic 獲得品牌許可，並向 Authentic 支付特許權使用費，然後我們和我們的合作夥伴 Authentic 向房東支付租金，包括將向其支付租金的 Simon - Forever 21 可能在 Vornado 的一處房產中。事實上，它是在時代廣場向 Steve Roth 和 Vornado 支付租金。該業務具有營業利潤。我們與 Authentic 分享 50-50。所以實際上，現在我們轉換並交換了我們共同擁有的許可證。

Now we have historically done the license business on a JV basis. We've decided over time to exchange that into stock of Authentic. And that's why we were not a shareholder in Authentic, but eventually it become a 12% shareholder in Authentic through the exchange of our interest in the JV license business, for stock into Authentic. Authentic is a big company. It does $1 billion of revenue, close thereabouts. But it owns the license of many, many brands beyond SPARC. It owns its partnership with David Beckham and its partnership with Shaquille, Elvis Presley, Juicy Couture and on down the list. You can Google it, it will give you all the names, so. But SPARC is essentially the retail operating company. So when you think of SPARC, you should think of it similar to any other retailer like American Eagle or anybody else that operates stores, operate e-commerce, et cetera, it does wholesale. The only difference it pays a royalty to Authentic. It does not pay a royalty to Simon Property Group. So the only vagaries that Simon Property Group has is, in fact, what the operating profits of SPARC are.

現在，我們一直以來都是在合資企業的基礎上開展許可業務。隨著時間的推移，我們決定將其換成 Authentic 的庫存。這就是為什麼我們不是 Authentic 的股東，但最終通過我們在 JV 許可業務中的權益交換，它成為 Authentic 12% 的股東，換取 Authentic 的股票。 Authentic是一家大公司。它的收入約為 10 億美元。但它擁有 SPARC 以外的許多品牌的許可。它擁有與大衛·貝克漢姆 (David Beckham) 的合作夥伴關係，以及與沙奎爾 (Shaquille)、埃爾維斯·普雷斯利 (Elvis Presley)、Juicy Couture 等的合作夥伴關係。你可以穀歌它，它會給你所有的名字，所以。但 SPARC 本質上是一家零售運營公司。因此，當您想到 SPARC 時，您應該將其與任何其他零售商（如 American Eagle）或任何其他經營商店、經營電子商務等的零售商聯繫起來，它從事批發業務。它向 Authentic 支付版稅的唯一區別。它不向 Simon Property Group 支付特許權使用費。因此，事實上，西蒙地產集團唯一變幻莫測的是 SPARC 的營業利潤是多少。

And in the case of '21 versus '22, the big difference was essentially Forever 21 because that teenage consumer obviously cut back with the rapid increase in gas prices and inflation and the uncertain economic environment. So I know we're not allowed, but can we let Alex -- I'm asking Tom Ward, who's the police of the call, can we ask Alex if he understands this? Okay, Alex. do you understand it? Was I perfectly clear?

在 21 年和 22 年的情況下，最大的區別本質上是永遠 21，因為隨著汽油價格和通貨膨脹的迅速上漲以及經濟環境的不確定性，青少年消費者明顯減少了消費。所以我知道我們是不允許的，但是我們可以讓亞歷克斯——我問湯姆沃德，他是接電話的警察，我們可以問亞歷克斯他是否明白這一點？好的，亞歷克斯。你到底懂不懂呢？我完全清楚了嗎？

So if I take away what you're saying, SPG lives really on the retail sales and performance, your 12% stake in AB doesn't generate any fees to you? So again, the focus is really the earnings derived purely from sales, there's not any sort of recurring.

因此，如果我拿走你所說的，SPG 真的依賴於零售銷售和業績，你在 AB 的 12% 股份不會給你帶來任何費用嗎？所以再次強調，重點實際上是純粹來自銷售的收入，沒有任何形式的經常性收入。

Well, I mean, it's more than -- sure, sales are important, but there's gross margin. They also sell wholesale, okay? So Brooks Brothers does have wholesale accounts. So it's more -- but it generates EBITDA basically through running the business, which includes stores, e-commerce, wholesale, and certain other ventures. Authentic, because we equity account, they're a very profitable company with high gross margins. It's an asset-light company, essentially. We take our share of earnings from them, net income because they are a taxpayer, et cetera.

嗯，我的意思是，這不僅僅是 - 當然，銷售很重要，但還有毛利率。他們也批發，好嗎？所以 Brooks Brothers 確實有批發賬戶。所以它更多——但它基本上是通過經營業務產生 EBITDA 的，其中包括商店、電子商務、批發和某些其他企業。真實的，因為我們是股票賬戶，他們是一家非常賺錢的公司，毛利率很高。它本質上是一家輕資產公司。我們從他們那裡拿走我們的收入份額，淨收入，因為他們是納稅人，等等。

But together, all of those businesses, SPARC, RGG, which is our partnership with Michael Rubin, who owns Fanatics, and Authentic, all of that rolls through OPI. And OPI contributed $0.64 out of $11.87. So it's in that range, to give you a sense. So $0.64 out of $11.85. So -- but that -- hopefully, that helps explain it. Lastly, you got it?

但總的來說，所有這些業務，SPARC，RGG，這是我們與擁有 Fanatics 的邁克爾魯賓和 Authentic 的合作夥伴關係，所有這些都通過 OPI 滾動。 OPI 在 11.87 美元中貢獻了 0.64 美元。所以它在那個範圍內，給你一個感覺。所以 11.85 美元中的 0.64 美元。所以——但是——希望這有助於解釋它。最後，你明白了嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Vince Tibone with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vince Tibone 與 Green Street 的對話。

Could you provide some color on leasing economics and how those are trending in the current macro environment? Just given current NOI guidance is about 2%, which is lower than average contractual bumps and there should be some occupancy upside, this just seems to imply leasing economics aren't great. But I know it's contrary to what you said on recent calls. So can you just help me better understand kind of the dynamics at play here with guidance and maybe where leasing economics are right now?

您能否提供一些關於租賃經濟學的顏色以及它們在當前宏觀環境中的趨勢如何？鑑於目前的 NOI 指引約為 2%，低於平均合同漲幅，而且入住率應該會有一些上升空間，這似乎只是意味著租賃經濟學並不好。但我知道這與你最近在電話中所說的相反。那麼，您能否在指導下幫助我更好地了解這裡的動態變化，以及租賃經濟學現在的位置？

Yes. Look, I would say we have positive spreads across the portfolio in renewals and in new leases versus existing leases for new fixed. And again, we also had operating spend increase because we're not immune to security cost increases, housekeeping, all of that normal operating expenses. To some extent, our fixed and bumps don't cover that. We're also projecting flat sales. Obviously, to the extent that sales outperformed that, we'll outperform as well.

是的。看，我會說我們在續約和新租約與新固定租約的現有租約中在投資組合中有積極的利差。再一次，我們的運營支出也有所增加，因為我們無法避免安全成本增加、內務管理和所有正常運營費用的增加。在某種程度上，我們的固定和顛簸並沒有涵蓋這一點。我們還預計銷售額將持平。顯然，在銷售表現優於預期的情況下，我們也會表現出色。

And we have these cases when we're adding great retailers and great restaurants to our portfolio, we have to take out the tenant that was, in many cases, temporary, you have to take that out. And you basically have 9 months of downtime where you have no income for it.

當我們在我們的投資組合中增加很棒的零售商和很棒的餐館時，我們遇到過這些情況，我們必須去掉在許多情況下是臨時的租戶，你必須把它去掉。而且你基本上有 9 個月的停機時間，你沒有收入。

Now like we did last time, Vince, we said up to 2%. We did 4.8%. I'm hoping to do better. But those are basically the determinants. And that's why we said better than 2%. But we have some operating expense increases, real estate taxes, unbelievably continue even though we're the goose that continues to lay the golden eggs for all of the communities in which we operate, our taxes continue to go up. While we have operating expenses that go up with inflationary pressures, we had downtime. We had flat sales, and we lose temporary income while we're retending and going to physical, whether we're going to permanent income.

就像我們上次做的那樣，文斯，我們說最多 2%。我們做了 4.8%。我希望做得更好。但這些基本上是決定因素。這就是為什麼我們說好於 2%。但是我們有一些運營費用增加，房地產稅，令人難以置信地繼續，即使我們是繼續為我們經營所在的所有社區下金蛋的鵝，我們的稅收繼續增加。雖然我們的運營費用會隨著通貨膨脹壓力而上升，但我們也有停工期。我們的銷售額持平，並且在我們重新開始和進行實物時我們失去了臨時收入，無論我們是否要獲得永久收入。

All of that's great news, but our rent spreads are positive. Renewals are positive. And we -- and that's been the difference. And obviously, we'll throw COVID out. But even the trend prior to COVID, renewals were under customers, you know, Vince. And demand continues to be very good.

所有這些都是好消息，但我們的租金差是正的。續約是積極的。而我們——這就是不同之處。顯然，我們會把 COVID 扔掉。但即使是 COVID 之前的趨勢，續訂也是在客戶之下，你知道，文斯。需求繼續非常好。

Just one follow-up. Like is variable lease income -- do you expect that to continue to trend down just as you unwind maybe some COVID lease modifications? Or how should we think about that part of the puzzle to going forward?

只是一個跟進。就像可變租賃收入一樣——您是否希望隨著您放鬆一些 COVID 租賃修改而繼續下降？或者我們應該如何思考前進的難題的那一部分？

We have budgeted it basically down slightly because, number one is the extent that a tenant renews the lease, we're getting some of that overage into the base rent. If you remember out of bankruptcy, Forever 21 pays basically percentage rent to all of its landlords, us included. It had a tough year last year, as I mentioned earlier. And we're budgeting basically flat this year. So there's a lot that goes on that kind of -- you've got to again separate between overage and percent rent. It's a little bit of a crystal ball.

我們的預算基本上略有下降，因為第一是租戶續租的程度，我們將超額部分計入基本租金。如果您還記得破產後的情況，Forever 21 基本上會向包括我們在內的所有房東支付一定百分比的租金。正如我之前提到的，去年是艱難的一年。今年我們的預算基本持平。所以有很多事情發生在這種情況下——你必須再次區分超額租金和百分比租金。這有點像水晶球。

There are always retailers that do well, some that slow down. We're pretty good at anticipating who's going to be great, who's not. But we're not the ones -- other than Forever 21, we're not the ones putting the stuff in the stores itself, okay? Forever 21, you can blame it on us, okay? So I hope that helps.

總有零售商做得很好，有些零售商則放緩。我們非常擅長預測誰會很棒，誰不會。但我們不是——除了 Forever 21，我們不是把東西放在商店裡的人，好嗎？ Forever 21，你可以怪我們，好嗎？所以我希望能有所幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Mailman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Craig Mailman。

David, just you had mentioned Forever 21, JCPenney's managed some inflationary headwinds in their business. I'm just kind of curious, with your purview through SPARC and other investments, just how you think the retailers, that your investors and maybe other tenants that people have concerns about or talked about in the news, are positioned heading into '23 from a gross margin management perspective and just balance sheet. And how much risk you see in this current environment versus maybe the kind of the headline fees that are in the market.

大衛，剛才你提到了 Forever 21，JCPenney 在他們的業務中應對了一些通貨膨脹的逆風。我只是有點好奇，在您通過 SPARC 和其他投資的權限範圍內，您如何看待零售商、您的投資者以及人們擔心或在新聞中談論的其他租戶，從 23 世紀開始進入 23 世紀毛利率管理的角度和公正的資產負債表。以及您在當前環境中看到的風險與市場上可能存在的標題費用的類型相比有多大。

Right now, we feel really good about our retailers. I think they were very focused on entering '23 with good, clean inventories. We feel like most of them have managed that. I asked my leasing folks all the time any pullback on demand. It's not really happened. So we feel good about that. Demand continues to be generally very strong. And I think they really -- because of the bounce back out of COVID really got the benefit of kind of getting their house in order. So I think on the credit side, we're feeling very comfortable, right, Brian? Yes?

現在，我們對我們的零售商感覺非常好。我認為他們非常專注於以良好、乾淨的庫存進入 23 年。我們覺得他們中的大多數人都做到了這一點。我一直問我的租賃人員是否有任何需求回落。這並沒有真正發生。所以我們對此感覺很好。需求總體上仍然非常強勁。而且我認為他們真的——因為 COVID 的反彈真的讓他們的房子井井有條。所以我認為在信貸方面，我們感覺很舒服，對吧，布賴恩？是的？

Yes. Watch list has been lower in years. The tenant community rebuilt its financial position during COVID and is coming out of it in a much better place.

是的。觀察名單多年來一直較低。租戶社區在 COVID 期間重建了其財務狀況，並在一個更好的地方走出了困境。

So nothing yet. Obviously, you've got a couple of big names out there, but we really have very little exposure to them. And in some cases, we'd like most of them are boxed and also in strip centers. So the ones that were -- that we have and we like the box at, we think we can do something better with them. So I'd say generally, knock on wood, I think credit side is pretty good and demand is good. And they ran -- they -- December was very spotty for a lot of retailers.

所以還沒有。顯然，你有幾個大牌，但我們對他們的接觸真的很少。在某些情況下，我們希望它們中的大多數是盒裝的，並且也位於帶狀中心。所以那些 - 我們擁有並且我們喜歡這個盒子，我們認為我們可以用它們做一些更好的事情。所以我一般會說，敲木頭，我認為信貸方面很好，需求也很好。他們跑了 - 他們 - 12 月對很多零售商來說非常參差不齊。

On the other hand, after Christmas, most had a really good January. And again, I think the mistake we made, Simon Property Group made is that -- again, SPARC was profitable even with -- even though even it didn't meet the financial results of what -- and again, we shouldn't dwell on this too much because again, $0.64 out of $11.87, $0.64 out of $11.87. But it's important just so we'll do a little vehicle, but we made the mistake that thinking '21 -- we budgeted basically flat to '21. And '21 was for a couple of the brands there, just extraordinarily profitable.

另一方面，聖誕節過後，大多數人在一月份過得非常好。再一次，我認為我們所犯的錯誤，Simon Property Group 所犯的錯誤是——再一次，SPARC 是盈利的——即使它沒有達到什麼財務結果——再一次，我們不應該詳述這太多了，因為 11.87 美元中有 0.64 美元，11.87 美元中有 0.64 美元。但這很重要，所以我們會做一個小車，但我們犯了一個錯誤，認為 21 年——我們的預算基本上與 21 年持平。而 '21 是針對那裡的幾個品牌，非常有利可圖。

We made some tactical mistakes in Forever 21. We brought in a new CEO to rectify those mistakes. She's doing a terrific job. So we're very pleased there. We also are very pleased with JCPenney. It's unbelievably profitable EBITDA. You can see the EBITDA. There are some public filings out there. But it is -- it didn't have the '21 year of '21, but we're very pleased at where that company is positioned. And we're extremely pleased with the management team and all that they're doing to reinvigorate the brand. That means so much to that consumer in those communities.

我們在 Forever 21 中犯了一些戰術錯誤。我們聘請了一位新 CEO 來糾正這些錯誤。她做得很好。所以我們在那裡非常高興。我們也對 JCPenney 非常滿意。這是令人難以置信的有利可圖的 EBITDA。你可以看到EBITDA。那裡有一些公開文件。但它是——它沒有 21 年的 21 年，但我們對該公司的定位感到非常高興。我們對管理團隊以及他們為重振品牌所做的一切感到非常滿意。這對那些社區的消費者來說意義重大。

And we're taking a different tack than others that have managed or owned that brand. We're actually reinvesting in that company to make it very important for those communities. So very pleased with how we're positioning Penney. But it had EBITDA -- I don't know if I can disclose it, but it had a lot of EBITDA, okay? So and our partner, Brookfield, we'll let Brookfield take -- we'll let Brookfield announce it if they do their -- I'm kidding. But it was very profitable from an EBITDA point of view.

我們正在採取與管理或擁有該品牌的其他人不同的策略。實際上，我們正在對那家公司進行再投資，使其對這些社區非常重要。對我們對 Penney 的定位非常滿意。但它有 EBITDA——我不知道我是否可以透露它，但它有很多 EBITDA，好嗎？因此，我們的合作夥伴布魯克菲爾德，我們會讓布魯克菲爾德接管——如果他們這樣做，我們會讓布魯克菲爾德宣布——我在開玩笑。但從 EBITDA 的角度來看，這是非常有利可圖的。

So we're very pleased there with the brands. But we did make the mistake of thinking '21 would repeat. And then obviously, you had a lot of volatility from a macro point in '22 with huge increases in interest rates, huge increase in price, in food and energy cost that the consumer was whipsawed, and we felt the impact of it. It's stabilized now, we believe.

所以我們對這些品牌非常滿意。但我們確實犯了錯誤，認為 21 年會重演。然後很明顯，從 22 年的宏觀點來看，你有很大的波動，利率大幅上漲，價格大幅上漲，食品和能源成本大幅上漲，消費者受到衝擊，我們感受到了它的影響。我們相信，它現在已經穩定下來。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Schmidt with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Schmidt。

Given the China reopening, I wonder if you could outline how these visitors would impact your coastal premium outlets and your dominant coastal malls.

鑑於中國重新開放，我想知道您是否可以概述這些訪客將如何影響您的沿海優質奧特萊斯和主要的沿海購物中心。

Well, I think we haven't seen the benefit. But just walking we -- I mean I don't want to get into the kind of the geopolitics of what's going on. But we're -- we think there's a real benefit to our landmark assets that have always been shopped by the Chinese consumer or the Asian consumer. We're starting to see that a little bit, but we're not planning for that to really accelerate in '23 but we're hopeful that it will.

好吧，我認為我們還沒有看到好處。但只是走我們 - 我的意思是我不想進入正在發生的事情的那種地緣政治。但我們 - 我們認為我們的標誌性資產有真正的好處，這些資產一直被中國消費者或亞洲消費者購買。我們開始看到一點點，但我們不打算在 23 年真正加速，但我們希望它會。

Our next question comes from the line of Floris Gerbrand Dijkum with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Floris Gerbrand Dijkum 系列。

David, you had talked last quarter, actually, in response to a question I asked about recovering back to 2019 levels of same-property NOI, which we reckon to be about $6.2 billion. But obviously, that includes -- that does not include some of your retailer investments. But depending on how you slice it, I'm just trying to do the math here, but you're at least $200 million short, even if you include those retailer investments.

大衛，實際上，你在上個季度談到了我提出的關於恢復到 2019 年同一財產 NOI 水平的問題，我們估計約為 62 億美元。但顯然，這包括——不包括您的一些零售商投資。但取決於你如何分割它，我只是想在這裡做數學運算，但你至少缺口 2 億美元，即使你包括那些零售商投資。

If you can walk us through -- that would imply that you would get to around 3.7% NOI growth to get back to those levels. So you're clearly not guiding to that yet. You're guiding to 2%. But what are the headwinds, if you will?

如果你能帶領我們通過 - 這意味著你將獲得大約 3.7% 的 NOI 增長以回到這些水平。所以你顯然還沒有指導那個。你指導到 2%。但是，如果你願意的話，逆風是什麼？

Floris, I think you can -- you really should just focus on domestic. To put the retailers in there, there's too much volatility. It's not something we look to -- we're focused on are domestic property NOI to get back to 2019 numbers before we were shut down by the pandemic.

弗洛里斯，我認為你可以——你真的應該只關注國內問題。要把零售商放在那裡，波動太大了。這不是我們想要的——我們關注的是國內房地產 NOI，以便在我們被大流行關閉之前回到 2019 年的數字。

The short answer is we will get there on a run rate by the end of this year. That's the short answer. And you shouldn't put the retailer NOI in there. It's, again, that's -- you've got to remember, we have basically no cash investment in SPARC. So -- and I know we could talk about it all day, but it's -- when you think about Simon Property Group, we want you to think about those investments as it gets with purchase, okay?

簡短的回答是，我們將在今年年底前以運行率達到目標。這是簡短的回答。而且你不應該把零售商 NOI 放在那裡。再一次，那是——你必須記住，我們基本上沒有對 SPARC 的現金投資。所以——我知道我們可以整天談論它，但它——當你想到西蒙地產集團時，我們希望你在購買時考慮這些投資，好嗎？

We get this great property company that owns all those real estate that's redeveloping it, great balance sheet, the ability to make smart investments with an unbelievable return on investment outside its core business. And that's what you get with a seasoned team that's experienced from recession to credit prices to a shutdown in a pandemic, okay? And we managed it through it all.

我們得到了這家偉大的房地產公司，它擁有所有正在重新開發的房地產，良好的資產負債表，能夠進行明智的投資，並在其核心業務之外獲得令人難以置信的投資回報。這就是你從一個經驗豐富的團隊那裡得到的，這個團隊經歷了從經濟衰退到信貸價格再到大流行期間的停工，好嗎？我們通過這一切來管理它。

So the bottom line is our domestic property NOI, because of the delay in some of these openings, we will get back on a same property basis. Because remember, the other thing for us, we have properties in and out. So you can't go back in '19, the portfolio is different. But if you do the same portfolio that we own today versus the same portfolio that we own in '19, possible we'll be there by the end of this year, okay?

所以底線是我們的國內物業 NOI，由於其中一些開放的延遲，我們將在相同的物業基礎上收回。因為請記住，對我們來說另一件事是，我們有財產進出。所以你不能回到 19 年，投資組合不同了。但是，如果你做我們今天擁有的相同投資組合與我們在 19 年擁有的相同投資組合，我們可能會在今年年底前完成，好嗎？

And that would -- and David, that includes -- the $6.2 billion was included your stake in Taubman as well. But I'm just curious because...

這將 - 大衛，其中包括 - 62 億美元也包括你在 Taubman 的股份。但我只是好奇，因為...

No. We're not including Taubman in it. This is just the domestic property NOI. So we're not even including our international NOI. So what we can give you the mill, if you combine the mills, outlets and malls, domestic portfolio that we owned in '19 and that we still own in '22, we will get there on a run rate by the end of this year. As simple as that we're not that far off, but we have delayed openings. And depending on where sales come in, it's even possible we make it this year. And that's the way to look at it. And that's the only way to look at it, really.

不，我們不包括 Taubman。這只是國內物業的 NOI。所以我們甚至不包括我們的國際 NOI。所以我們可以給你的工廠，如果你把我們在 19 年擁有的和我們在 22 年仍然擁有的工廠、奧特萊斯和購物中心、國內投資組合結合起來，我們將在今年年底前達到目標.就這麼簡單，我們並沒有那麼遠，但我們推遲了開放時間。根據銷售額的來源，我們甚至有可能在今年做到這一點。這就是看待它的方式。這是看待它的唯一方式，真的。

I don't disagree. If I can -- the S&L pipeline, has that changed from the last quarter as well? You mentioned some of your spaces opening later in '23 and then '24, obviously, that has the potential to impact your NOI growth going forward by 5% to 7% depending on the rent that you signed, plus your fixed rent bumps. The math that we have suggests that 2% is -- it's the extreme low side of what's probably going to happen over the next 2 to 3 years.

我不同意。如果可以的話——S&L 管道與上個季度相比是否也發生了變化？你提到你的一些空間在 23 年晚些時候和 24 年開放，顯然，這有可能影響你未來的 NOI 增長 5% 到 7%，具體取決於你簽署的租金，加上你的固定租金上漲。我們的數學表明 2% 是——這是未來 2 到 3 年可能發生的事情的極低端。

Yes. I mean certainly, if you look at it over that period of time, call to way outperform -- and again, I just go back to last year. We try to be as thoughtful in doing this, but there are variabilities to it, overage rent being the biggest. But we also have some certain inflationary pressures that we, as landlords and property owners, have to deal with, what I mentioned earlier. And again, you have downtime. But we -- I would hope that we would beat our number just like we did last year. And just like we have historically.

是的。我的意思是，當然，如果你在那段時間看它，就會認為跑贏大市——再一次，我回到去年。我們在做這件事時盡量考慮周到，但也有變化，超額租金是最大的。但我們也有一些特定的通脹壓力，作為房東和業主，我們必須應對，這就是我之前提到的。再一次，你有停機時間。但是我們——我希望我們能像去年一樣超過我們的數字。就像我們歷史上一樣。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Michael Goldsmith。

In the past, you've talked about 80% of the NOI being generated by the top 50% of the properties. Does this remain true? And can you talk about the demand trends and pricing power that you have in the top half of the portfolio relative to the bottom half?

過去，您曾談到 80% 的 NOI 是由前 50% 的物業產生的。這仍然是真的嗎？你能談談你在投資組合上半部分相對於下半部分的需求趨勢和定價能力嗎？

Well, I don't -- anybody has the percent...

好吧，我沒有 - 任何人都有百分比......

Yes. Michael, that's the whole group. Our top 100 assets generate roughly 80% of our domestic NOI.

是的。邁克爾，那是整個團隊。我們的前 100 大資產產生了大約 80% 的國內 NOI。

Yes. So it's more than 50%.

是的。所以它超過了50%。

It's more than 50%.

超過50%。

It's more than 50%. So I'd say demand across the board is good. Obviously, the higher end property probably has more demand. And -- but we're generally -- our leases still, to this day, occupancy cost is low and our rent spreads across the board are generally positive regardless of the sales front.

超過50%。所以我想說全面的需求是好的。顯然，高端物業可能有更多需求。而且 - 但我們一般來說 - 我們的租約仍然存在，直到今天，入住成本很低，而且無論銷售方面如何，我們的整體租金利差總體上是正的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Mueller。

Just a quick one. For your platform investment FFO forecast, are you expecting any significant nonrecurring costs like you had in the 2022 results?

只是一個快速的。對於您的平台投資 FFO 預測，您是否預計會有像 2022 年結果中那樣的重大非經常性成本？

No. That's a good question and the answer is no. We're not.

不，這是一個很好的問題，答案是否定的。不是。

And our next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Haendel St. Juste 與 Mizuho 的合作。

I was hoping maybe you could share some thoughts on deploying capital in the current macro. We noticed you didn't buy back any stock in the fourth quarter. So I guess I'm curious what your level of interest and stock buybacks is here today. And second, I know you mentioned that there's no sizable acquisitions or dispositions in the guide. But I'm curious what your view of the transaction market for malls is, at least today. Clearly, things are still a bit stalled across the board, but there have been a few trades in California the last couple of months. So curious what you think of those trades and if there are any pricing read-throughs.

我希望你能分享一些關於在當前宏觀環境中部署資本的想法。我們注意到你們在第四季度沒有回購任何股票。所以我想我很好奇你今天的興趣和股票回購水平是多少。其次，我知道你提到指南中沒有大規模的收購或處置。但我很好奇您對購物中心交易市場的看法，至少在今天是這樣。顯然，事情仍然全面停滯不前，但過去幾個月在加利福尼亞州進行了幾筆交易。很好奇您對這些交易的看法以及是否有任何定價通讀。

Well, I think we're generally pleased that we're seeing some activity in our sector. And it's great that there's others out there that are -- real estate industries that are trying to grow externally. As an example, what was today that was announced. It's good to see we're not the only ones that like to make things happen externally. So that's good.

好吧，我認為我們普遍很高興看到我們行業的一些活動。很高興還有其他人——試圖在外部發展的房地產行業。例如，今天宣布的內容。很高興看到我們不是唯一喜歡讓事情發生在外部的人。所以這很好。

I think our strategy has been essentially confirmed by others, other players in our industry where size and economies of scale see the benefits. So it's always good to see. We saw it in the warehousing world, and we saw it in the -- now we might see in the storage world. So it's great that we see that. From a stock buyback, I think our dividend is really where we're focused growing that.

我認為我們的戰略基本上得到了其他人的確認，我們行業中的其他參與者在規模和規模經濟中看到了好處。所以看到總是好的。我們在倉儲世界中看到了它，我們在 - 現在我們可能會在存儲世界中看到它。所以很高興我們看到了這一點。從股票回購來看，我認為我們的股息確實是我們關注增長的地方。

One of the thing I mentioned, hopefully, in my conference text that you heard was we paid out $39 billion in dividends, staggering number when you put it in perspective. That does not include any stock buyback, that's just pure dividends. I'd say that's the, obviously, the focus. But if the stock comes under pressure, we still have the ability to deal with that. So that is in our arsenal. We got a lot of mixed-use properties.

我希望在你聽到的會議文本中提到的一件事是我們支付了 390 億美元的股息，當你正確看待它時，這是一個驚人的數字。這不包括任何股票回購，這只是純粹的股息。我會說，這顯然是重點。但如果股票面臨壓力，我們仍然有能力應對。這就是我們的武器庫。我們有很多混合用途的房產。

I'd say generally, relatively quiet on the acquisition front. We did create our partnership with Jamestown, which we're focused on this year and, obviously, the years to come to grow that relationship. But we've got a lot going on and the capital to continue to create external opportunities. And we've been -- we haven't batted 1,000, but we've certainly moved the needle profitably with our investments and creating unbelievable return on investment, both in the real estate -- still one of the best deals ever done in real estate was our deal on premium outlets, which I'm happy to walk through the math not today. But still one of the best multiple deals ever been in our industry. And at that time, we were widely criticized for it. But one of the best deals done in the public company space.

我想說的是，一般來說，在收購方面相對平靜。我們確實與 Jamestown 建立了合作夥伴關係，今年我們將重點放在這一點上，顯然，未來幾年也會發展這種關係。但我們有很多事情要做，也有資金繼續創造外部機會。而且我們已經 - 我們還沒有達到 1,000，但我們確實通過我們的投資取得了盈利並創造了令人難以置信的投資回報，無論是在房地產領域 - 仍然是有史以來最好的交易之一estate 是我們在高級奧特萊斯的交易，我很高興不是今天通過數學計算。但仍然是我們行業有史以來最好的多項交易之一。當時，我們因此受到了廣泛的批評。但在上市公司領域完成的最佳交易之一。

Got it. Got it. And I appreciate that. But it sounds like at a high level, not putting words in your mouth, that the focus of your capital investing today is going to be more the redev, less the stock buybacks, less the acquisitions. Question, just a follow-up maybe on the FFO guide itself. I appreciate some of the headwinds, the unknowns, the OpEx, the interest expense, et cetera, but I'm trying to get a sense of what else might be limiting the FFO growth this year, which is basically flat year-over-year versus the 2%, at least.

知道了。知道了。我很感激。但這聽起來像是在高層，而不是口頭上，你今天的資本投資重點將更多地放在重新開發上，而不是股票回購，而不是收購。問題，可能只是 FFO 指南本身的後續行動。我很欣賞一些不利因素、未知因素、運營支出、利息支出等等，但我試圖了解還有什麼可能限制今年 FFO 的增長，這與去年同期基本持平至少與 2% 相比。

Yes, it's really simple. It's interest rate. We're losing roughly $0.30 to $0.35 per share just from either floating rate debt that's now higher or our own assumptions of what our refinancing costs are going to be. The good news is we're refinancing all of our debt. The market is there. but the cost of debt is higher. So that's really if you cut through it all, that's -- and when you look at kind of where the market was, very few analysts updated their numbers at all for higher interest rates. But they -- I don't have to tell you they ballooned over the last 12 months.

是的，這真的很簡單。是利率。僅由於現在更高的浮動利率債務或我們自己對再融資成本的假設，我們每股損失大約 0.30 美元至 0.35 美元。好消息是我們正在為所有債務再融資。市場就在那裡。但債務成本更高。所以這真的是如果你把它全部切掉，那就是——當你看看市場的情況時，很少有分析師為更高的利率更新他們的數據。但他們——我不必告訴你他們在過去 12 個月裡膨脹了。

No, I appreciate that. I wanted to get a bit of clarity, though, perhaps on bad debt. How are you thinking about that this year within the guide, FX headwinds, maybe at least?

不，我很感激。不過，我想弄清楚一點，也許是關於壞賬。您如何看待今年指南中的外匯逆風，至少可能是這樣？

Yes. I think we got to open it up a little higher. We have a little higher bad debt expense budgeted this year than last year.

是的。我想我們得把它開得更高一點。我們今年預算的壞賬費用比去年略高。

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Juan Sanabria。

Just hoping for a little color on expected CapEx spend just in general for maintenance and then the development spend that we should be budgeting, and what kind of returns or NOI contributions we should be thinking about on the dev readouts stopped -- that would flow through into '23 as we model.

只是希望對一般用於維護的預期資本支出支出有一點了解，然後是我們應該編制預算的開發支出，以及我們應該考慮在停止的開發讀數上考慮什麼樣的回報或 NOI 貢獻——這些都會流過按照我們的模型進入'23。

I will look at our 8-K because the development spend will add to that. But obviously, when you start a real estate project, it's over a, 2-year sometimes 3-year process. So all that's disclosed in the 8-K. And the CapEx, including TA, will probably be roughly with what it was '22, if not a little bit less, okay?

我會看看我們的 8-K，因為開發支出會增加。但顯然，當你開始一個房地產項目時，它會經歷 2 年，有時甚至是 3 年的過程。所以 8-K 中披露的所有內容。包括 TA 在內的資本支出可能與 22 年大致持平，如果不是少一點，好嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Greg McGinniss。

Regarding the large number of stores opening in late '23 and early '24, what's that expected NOI contribution in GLA, which you attributed to these leases that are signed but not yet been paying?

關於 23 年底和 24 年初開設的大量商店，GLA 的預期 NOI 貢獻是多少，您將其歸因於這些已簽署但尚未支付的租約？

At least $100 million.

至少1億美元。

On NOI or -- I guess NOI. Okay. And then is there any contribution expectation from the Jamestown investment? And then if you could talk about like Klépierre that's built into guidance as well. That would be appreciated.

關於 NOI 或 - 我猜是 NOI。好的。那麼詹姆斯敦的投資有沒有貢獻預期呢？然後，如果你能像 Klépierre 那樣談論它，它也包含在指導中。那將不勝感激。

That all in Jamestown is accretive, but it wasn't a big investment. So -- and so it's in our budget, but it's not really -- the relationship is material, but the financial impact is not material. So that's one. Klépierre, we -- it is consistent with their guidance that they'll be developing when they announced their earnings this -- in the next couple of weeks.

詹姆斯敦的一切都是增值的，但這並不是一筆大投資。所以 - 所以它在我們的預算中，但它不是真的 - 這種關係是重要的，但財務影響並不重要。這就是一個。 Klépierre，我們——這與他們在未來幾周宣布收益時將開發的指導一致。

There is some FX headwind still baked in there, Greg, [indiscernible] dollars.

那裡仍然存在一些外匯逆風，格雷格，[音頻不清晰]美元。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ki Bin Kim 與 Truist 的對話。

Hope to have a quick one here. So when I look at your 2023 lease expirations, your portfolio still has about 10.5% expiring, which hasn't really budged in the past couple of quarters. I remember from the last call, you said these things can take time, especially with larger national accounts. So I was just curious if you can share an update and how we should mentally think about a realistic set of outcomes here.

希望在這裡有一個快速的。因此，當我查看您 2023 年的租約到期時，您的投資組合仍有約 10.5% 到期，這在過去幾個季度並沒有真正改變。我記得在上次電話中，你說過這些事情需要時間，尤其是對於較大的國民賬戶。所以我很好奇你是否可以分享最新情況，以及我們應該如何在這裡思考一組現實的結果。

Well, it's -- listen, we're negotiating for the benefit of our shareholders. They're negotiating for the benefit of their shareholders. And a lot of these things we have, what I'll say, handshakes and it's the process of being [papered.] So you should feel good that there's no smoking gun. There's nothing there that's going to lead to a fall out. It's just a process. And renewals are going.

好吧，這是 - 聽著，我們正在為股東的利益進行談判。他們正在為股東的利益進行談判。我們有很多這樣的事情，我要說的是，握手，這是[被報導]的過程。所以你應該感覺很好，沒有確鑿的證據。那裡沒有任何東西會導致爭吵。這只是一個過程。續約正在進行中。

We're, in fact, ahead of our '23 renewals now compared to where we were last year, some of the '22s -- and in some cases, because '22 took so long, we're doing '23s, so together and it's a process. But it's going well and relationships are progressing appropriately.

事實上，與去年我們在 23 年的續約相比，我們現在領先於 22 年的一些續約——在某些情況下，因為 22 年花了很長時間，我們正在一起做 23 年的續約這是一個過程。但它進展順利，關係正在適當進展。

Okay. And just one quick one. Where should we expect your portfolio occupancy to end up by end of this year?

好的。並且只是一個快速的。我們應該期望您的投資組合入住率到今年年底結束？

'23, slightly up, slightly up. I don't have the number but Brian will have it for you later. Okay, last one, I guess. We're over 6:00, but we have one more question and one to finish the Q&A.

'23，略漲，略漲。我沒有電話號碼，但 Brian 稍後會為您提供。好吧，我想是最後一個。我們已經 6:00 多了，但我們還有一個問題，還有一個要完成問答。

And our final question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Linda Tsai 與 Jefferies 的對話。

On the guidance, the range you provided based on comparable FFO per share in the coming quarters when you have a better sense of mark-to-market gains or losses, will you also show guidance for estimated diluted per share for the full year like you did in prior quarters?

在指南中，當您對按市值計價的收益或損失有更好的了解時，您會根據未來幾個季度的可比 FFO 每股提供的範圍，您是否也會像您一樣顯示全年攤薄每股收益的指南在前幾個季度做了什麼？

Yes. Last -- you mean our mark-to-market equity investments?

是的。最後 - 你是說我們按市值計價的股票投資？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, sure. I mean we outlined it. We separate it. We'll do comparable and real numbers. So you'll see both. Hopefully, it will only be up. But last year, we did take a reported FFO. You have the number?

是的，當然。我的意思是我們概述了它。我們把它分開。我們會做可比較的真實數字。所以你會看到兩者。希望它只會上升。但去年，我們確實採用了報告的 FFO。你有號碼嗎？

What was it?

它以前如何？

$0.08.

0.08 美元。

$0.08. But we'll outline those for you, Linda so, you'll see them both.

0.08 美元。但我們會為你概述這些，Linda 所以，你會看到它們。

And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to David Simon for closing remarks.

我們已經結束了問答環節。我現在將電話轉回給 David Simon 作結束語。

Thank you. And again, I'm sure there are a lot more detailed questions. Please call Brian and Tom, and we'll be happy to walk you through more details. Thank you.

謝謝。而且，我確信還有很多更詳細的問題。請致電 Brian 和 Tom，我們很樂意為您介紹更多詳情。謝謝。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時你們可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。