索尼 (SONY) 2002 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer fourth quarter and year-end 2002 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer 2002 年第四季度和年底的收益電話會議。

During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode.

在演示過程中，所有參與者都將處於只聽模式。

Afterwards we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

之後我們將進行問答環節。

If you have a question, please press the 1 followed by a four on your telephone.

如果您有任何問題，請在電話上按 1，然後按 4。

As a reminder this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, February 5, 2003.

提醒一下，會議記錄於 2003 年 2 月 5 日，星期三。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Fitzgerald (ph), Executive Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications.

我現在想把會議轉交給負責投資者關係和企業傳播的執行副總裁 Joe Fitzgerald (ph)。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Alex Yemenidjian, Chris McGurk and Dan Taylor are here.

Alex Yemenidjian、Chris McGurk 和 Dan Taylor 都在這裡。

We're going to get started right away.

我們馬上開始。

Just two things - one, the forward-looking statements - I'm sorry, the Safe Harbor language regarding forward-looking statements in our press release applies to this call.

只有兩件事——第一，前瞻性陳述——對不起，我們新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的安全港語言適用於本次電話會議。

And secondly, this call is being Webcast at both mgm.com and streetevents.com.

其次，該電話會議正在 mgm.com 和 streetevents.com 上進行網絡直播。

With that we'll get started with Alex.

這樣我們就可以開始使用 Alex 了。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

As you have all seen by now we've reported strong fourth-quarter results.

正如你們現在看到的那樣，我們已經報告了強勁的第四季度業績。

Typically the second half of the year is stronger than the first half for us and the fourth quarter is usually the strongest.

通常下半年對我們來說比上半年強，而第四季度通常是最強勁的。

Dan will explain why in a moment.

丹稍後會解釋原因。

But I think that what this quarter's performance underscores yet again is that the only valid way to evaluate the financial performance of MGM is on an annual basis, not an a quarterly basis.

但我認為，本季度的業績再次強調，評估米高梅財務業績的唯一有效方法是按年計算，而不是按季度計算。

Income recognition and cash flow are always subject to timing differences in three of our four core businesses, in the film production business, TV production and in the film and video (inaudible) library.

在我們四項核心業務中的三項，即電影製作業務、電視製作以及電影和視頻（聽不清）庫中，收入確認和現金流量總是受到時間差異的影響。

So the annual picture is a lot more accurate and telling.

因此，年度圖片更準確、更有說服力。

And of course, the only way to evaluate the performance of a slate of films is on an annual basis, thus taking into account all the seasons for film releases.

當然，評估一系列電影的表現的唯一方法是每年一次，因此要考慮電影發行的所有季節。

Our primary focus will be on generating and measuring cash flow.

我們的主要重點是產生和衡量現金流。

The GAAP term is net proceeds provided by operating activities, which is essentially free cash flow before capital expenditures.

GAAP 術語是經營活動提供的淨收益，實質上是資本支出前的自由現金流。

And in our company, as you all know, capital expenditures outside of film and TV production are minimal.

在我們公司，眾所周知，電影和電視製作之外的資本支出很少。

We started 2003 with a $600 million cash balance, which includes the proceeds from the sale of our 20 percent interest in the Bravo Network and also includes a 30 million cash distribution from the remaining Rainbow networks.

2003 年初，我們的現金餘額為 6 億美元，其中包括出售我們在 Bravo Network 的 20% 權益所得的收益，還包括來自其餘 Rainbow 網絡的 3000 萬美元現金分配。

We expect to receive additional cash distributions from our Rainbow investment.

我們希望從 Rainbow 投資中獲得額外的現金分配。

In fact, we just received another $10 million distribution yesterday.

事實上，我們昨天剛剛又收到了 1000 萬美元的分配。

Dan will give you more color on the numbers.

丹會給你更多關於數字的顏色。

So let me jump over to our channels.

所以讓我跳到我們的頻道。

Last week we announced that we entered into an agreement with UPC Netherlands, Holland's largest cable operator, to launch our MGM branded channel on digital cable in the Netherlands.

上週，我們宣布與荷蘭最大的有線電視運營商 UPC Netherlands 達成協議，在荷蘭推出我們的 MGM 品牌數字有線電視頻道。

Digital cable is a new rollout in the Netherlands, and we wanted to secure a (inaudible) on the expectation that the Dutch consumer transitions into higher-paying digital customer.

數字有線電視是荷蘭的一項新推出，我們希望確保（聽不清）荷蘭消費者轉變為支付更高的數字客戶的期望。

The carriage agreement is for a two-year term on the extended basic tier.

運輸協議在擴展基本層上的期限為兩年。

And with this new channel, MGM Networks now reaches close to 100 countries.

通過這個新頻道，MGM Networks 現在可以覆蓋近 100 個國家/地區。

Our relationship with NBC continues to expand.

我們與 NBC 的關係不斷擴大。

Two weeks ago we jointly announced with NBC that we have extended our international distribution agreement for an additional four years.

兩週前，我們與 NBC 聯合宣布，我們已將國際發行協議再延長四年。

So under the new agreement we will continue to distribute all NBC studios programming across all territories outside of North America through the 2007-2008 television season.

因此，根據新協議，我們將在 2007-2008 電視季期間繼續在北美以外的所有地區分發所有 NBC 工作室的節目。

For each show, MGM has a 15-year distribution term, so we expect to be distributing MGM studios programming at least until 2023.

對於每個節目，米高梅都有 15 年的發行期限，因此我們預計至少在 2023 年之前發行米高梅工作室的節目。

In connection with our 10 million share stock buy-back authorization, so far we have purchased a total of just under 3 million shares at an average price of $11.44 per share.

關於我們的 1000 萬股股票回購授權，到目前為止，我們已經以每股 11.44 美元的平均價格購買了總計近 300 萬股股票。

One last item before I turn it over to Chris.

在我把它交給克里斯之前的最後一項。

On January 30th, our principle shareholders sold 25 million shares for tax planning reasons.

1 月 30 日，我們的主要股東出於稅收籌劃原因出售了 2500 萬股股票。

The sale, which was made through Bear Stearns, was oversubscribed so the over subscription resulted in the underwriter exercising the green shoe for an additional 3.75 million shares.

通過貝爾斯登進行的此次出售獲得超額認購，因此超額認購導致承銷商行使綠鞋額外 375 萬股。

As a result of this transaction, our company's public float increased by over * 50 percent to 85 million shares.

由於此次交易，我們公司的公眾持股量增加了 50% 以上，達到 8500 萬股。

So our public flow now represents 34.2 percent of our outstanding stock.

因此，我們的公共流量現在占我們流通股的 34.2%。

When Chris and I came on board in April 1999, we stated that one of the critical steps in the transformation of MGM was increasing the public flow.

當克里斯和我於 1999 年 4 月加入公司時，我們曾表示米高梅轉型的關鍵步驟之一是增加公眾流量。

Since then, our public flow has grown from 16.1 million shares to 85.3 million shares, a 430 percent increase - Chris.

從那時起，我們的公眾流量從 1610 萬股增長到 8530 萬股，增長了 430%——克里斯。

Thank you, Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

Building off of our very successful third-quarter results, all four of our core businesses generated strong operating performance in the fourth quarter.

基於我們非常成功的第三季度業績，我們所有四項核心業務在第四季度都取得了強勁的經營業績。

First, in the feature film area, we are thrilled with the success of "Die Another Day," the 20th installment in the James Bond franchise.

首先，在故事片領域，我們對詹姆斯·邦德系列的第 20 部影片《擇日而亡》的成功感到非常興奮。

After three years of careful development, production, and marketing planning, all designed to take the franchise to a higher performance level, "Die Another Day" opened on November 22nd to number one at the domestic box office at $47.1 million in its first weekend.

經過三年的精心開發、製作和營銷規劃，所有這些都旨在將特許經營權提升到更高的性能水平，“擇日而亡”於 11 月 22 日上映，首周末就以 4710 萬美元的成績登上國內票房榜首。

The biggest Bond opening ever.

有史以來最大的邦德開幕。

The film is now approaching $160 million at the domestic box office.

這部電影目前在國內的票房已經接近 1.6 億美元。

Also a record.

也是一個記錄。

And has broken additional franchise performance records in virtually every major country where it has opened overseas.

並且幾乎在其在海外開設的每個主要國家/地區都打破了額外的特許經營業績記錄。

"Die Another Day" has now reached over $382 million at the worldwide box office -- also a new record.

《擇日而亡》的全球票房現已超過 3.82 億美元——這也是一項新紀錄。

With several major territories yet to go, we expect the film will generate over $425 million at the worldwide box office when it completes its theatrical run.

由於還有幾個主要地區尚未上映，我們預計這部電影在完成院線放映後將在全球範圍內創造超過 4.25 億美元的票房收入。

Most importantly, it will be the most profitable Bond film ever. "Die Another Day's" release helped generate tremendous activity during the quarter on the Bond library in DVD and VHS, where we shipped over 10 million units.

最重要的是，這將是有史以來最賺錢的邦德電影。 “擇日而死”的發行在本季度幫助 DVD 和 VHS 中的邦德圖書館產生了巨大的活動，我們的出貨量超過 1000 萬套。

In addition, the latest Bond interactive game "Night Fire" was released just prior to the film's opening and has now shipped over 3.3 million units.

此外，最新的邦德互動遊戲《夜火》在影片開場前即已發布，現已累計出貨量超過330萬台。

We also expect very strong performance when "Die Another Day" hits the DVD and VHS market this June. "Die Another Day's" performance capped a remarkable turnaround for our theatrical division in 2002.

我們還預計今年 6 月“擇日而亡”進入 DVD 和 VHS 市場時會有非常強勁的表現。 “擇日而死”的演出為我們的戲劇部門在 2002 年帶來了顯著的轉變。

Following the missteps made in the first half of the year, the slate of films released by MGM and UA in the second half of the year performed exceptionally well, starting with the very profitable "Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course" in July and including successes like "Barbershop," "Bowling for Columbine" and "Igby (ph) Goes Down," as well as critical favorites like "Nicholas Nickleby (ph) and Evelyn" that did not meet our financial targets.

繼上半年的失誤之後，米高梅和UA在下半年發行的電影系列表現異常出色，從7月份非常賺錢的“鱷魚獵人：碰撞課程”開始，包括成功的“Barbershop”、“Bowling for Columbine”和“Igby (ph) Goes Down”，以及“Nicholas Nickleby (ph) and Evelyn”等未達到我們財務目標的熱門影片。

These second-half films helped lead the entire film slate to profitability for the full year.

這些下半年的電影幫助整個電影板塊實現了全年的盈利。

This is the fourth consecutive year since Alex and I took over management of the MGM in 1999 that our full-year film slates have been profitable, generating just under a 10 percent combined first cycle return over that period before library value.

自 Alex 和我於 1999 年接管米高梅管理層以來，這是連續第四年我們的全年電影票房一直盈利，在圖書館價值之前的那個時期產生的第一周期綜合回報率略低於 10%。

Our confidence in achieving an even higher return going forward is based on the fact that our film development strategy has now fully evolved from a financial, creative, and organizational standpoint.

我們對未來獲得更高回報的信心是基於這樣一個事實，即我們的電影開發戰略現已從財務、創意和組織的角度全面發展。

We have 18 film releases from MGM and UA targeted in 2003, including three sequels - "Legally Blonde 2: Red White & Blonde," "Jeepers Creepers 2," and "Barbershop 2."

MGM 和 UA 計劃在 2003 年發行 18 部電影，其中包括三部續集——“律政俏佳人 2：紅白與金發”、“Jeepers Creepers 2”和“Barbershop 2”。

For the non-sequel MGM films, our average investment will be only about $20 million after financing activities.

對於非續集米高梅電影，我們的平均投資在融資活動後將只有約 2000 萬美元。

Many of these non-sequel films like "Agent Cody Banks" and "Good Boy" share the same economic and marketability parameters as "Legally Blonde" and "Barbershop."

許多非續集電影，如“特工科迪班克斯”和“好男孩”，與“律政俏佳人”和“理髮店”具有相同的經濟和市場參數。

Low cost, high concept films with clearly defined target audiences.

具有明確目標觀眾的低成本、高概念電影。

That and success could become successful franchise properties for us with the potential for sequels, spinoffs, and TV series.

這和成功可能會成為我們成功的特許經營權，並有可能製作續集、衍生產品和電視劇。

But we want to be very clear that our film strategy and slate for 2003 includes more than just these lower budget high concept movies.

但我們要非常清楚，我們 2003 年的電影戰略和名單不僅僅包括這些低預算的高概念電影。

Our production budgets for MGM films cover a very wide range of investment before taking into account the impact of our financing activities.

在考慮我們的融資活動的影響之前，我們對米高梅電影的製作預算涵蓋了非常廣泛的投資範圍。

These films include blue-chip talent like Denzel Washington, Reese Witherspoon, Josh Hartnett, Brittany Murphy, Michael Douglas, Ice Cube, and Cedric the Entertainer.

這些電影包括丹澤爾·華盛頓、瑞茜·威瑟斯彭、喬什·哈奈特、布列塔尼·墨菲、邁克爾·道格拉斯、冰立方和藝人塞德里克等藍籌人才。

In addition, we are close to moving forward on MGM films for 2004 with stars such as Halle Berry, and The Rock.

此外，我們即將推進 2004 年由哈莉貝瑞和巨石強森等明星主演的米高梅電影。

Overall, our film strategy is to be smarter about the financial parameters of our films, not smaller.

總的來說，我們的電影戰略是讓我們的電影的財務參數更聰明，而不是更小。

And our production philosophy includes paying talent for the right role in the right film at the right time.

我們的製作理念包括在正確的時間為正確的電影中的正確角色支付人才。

Finally, I'd like to highlight the continued success and outlook for United Artists, our specialty film division. "Bowling for Columbine," Michael Moore's essay on occult gun violence in the U.S. was one of the best reviewed films of 2002 making over 150 year-end top 10 list and has now become the highest grossing narrated documentary in history.

最後，我想強調我們的專業電影部門聯美的持續成功和前景。 “為哥倫拜恩打保齡球”，邁克爾摩爾關於美國神秘槍支暴力的文章是 2002 年最受好評的電影之一，在年終排名前 10 名的影片超過 150 部，現在已成為歷史上票房收入最高的解說紀錄片。

"Igby Goes Down" was also a major critical and financial success for UA.

“Igby Goes Down”對 UA 來說也是一個重大的關鍵和財務成功。

In addition, UA garnered three of our company's four Golden Globe nominations this year and just acquired "Pieces of April," a film which created a sensation at the Sundance Film Festival last month.

此外，UA在今年獲得了本公司四項金球獎提名中的三項，並剛剛獲得了上個月在聖丹斯電影節上轟動一時的影片《四月的碎片》。

In the home entertainment area, where our operations have already been running on all cylinders for the last three years we had yet another in a long series of outstanding quarters.

在家庭娛樂領域，我們的業務在過去三年中一直在全速運轉，我們在一系列出色的季度中又取得了又一成績。

Worldwide, our DVD unit shipments in the fourth quarter increased by 112 percent versus the prior year.

在全球範圍內，我們第四季度的 DVD 出貨量比去年同期增長了 112%。

For the full year, our DVD shipments were close to 80 million units, a 79 percent increase over the prior year.

全年，我們的 DVD 出貨量接近 8000 萬台，比上年增長 79%。

Combined, worldwide DVD and VHS shipments crossed 100 million unit level for the full year.

全年全球 DVD 和 VHS 出貨量合計超過 1 億台。

Our DVD library market share in 2002 is now 17 percent, second only to Warner Brothers and far ahead of all the other studios.

我們 2002 年的 DVD 庫市場份額現在是 17%，僅次於華納兄弟，遙遙領先於所有其他製片廠。

Our share has more than doubled from an 8 percent share in 2000.

我們的份額比 2000 年的 8% 翻了一番還多。

Strong growth in DVD player sales and MGM's libraries depth and breadth are the key factors behind this dramatic increase in our library market share.

DVD 播放器銷量的強勁增長以及米高梅圖書館的深度和廣度是我們圖書館市場份額大幅增長的關鍵因素。

Besides the Bond library sales that I mentioned previously, key library titles that generated strong revenue during the quarter included diverse films such "Spaceballs," "Princess Bride," and "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly."

除了我之前提到的邦德圖書館銷售外，本季度產生強勁收入的主要圖書館影片包括各種電影，如“太空球”、“公主新娘”和“好人、壞人和醜女”。

And the evergreen nature of our library DVD revenues is underscored by the following statistic: In 2002 we repromoted 44 library titles, including films like "The Great Escape," and "Quigley Down Under" that had been originally released onto DVD between 1998 and 2001.

以下統計數據突顯了我們圖書館 DVD 收入的常青性：2002 年，我們重新推廣了 44 部圖書館影片，包括最初在 1998 年至 2001 年期間以 DVD 形式發行的電影，如“大逃亡”和“Quigley Down Under” .

These 44 titles generated $52 million in revenues for us during 2002, a full 40 percent increase over the revenues generated by these same 44 titles in 2001.

2002 年，這 44 款產品為我們創造了 5200 萬美元的收入，比 2001 年這 44 款產品的收入增長了整整 40%。

Again, innovative repromotions are making these previously released titles evergreen and growing generators of DVD revenues for MGM.

同樣，創新的重新促銷使這些以前發行的影片常青，並為米高梅增加了 DVD 收入。

And our home entertainment group does just a spectacular job on our new film releases.

我們的家庭娛樂團隊在我們的新電影發行方面做得非常出色。

In 2002 driven by titles like "Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course" and "Jeepers Creepers," MGM performed at an average of 20 percent higher than the industry in DVD and VHS sales for new films with performance standardized at similar box office levels.

2002 年，在“鱷魚獵人：碰撞課程”和“Jeepers Creepers”等影片的推動下，米高梅在 DVD 和 VHS 銷售方面的平均表現比行業高出 20%，新電影的表現在類似的票房水平上處於標準化狀態。

And we believe our home entertainment performance for both library and new films will be further enhanced by our recapture of distribution in several key territories around the globe.

我們相信，我們在全球幾個主要地區重新獲得發行權後，我們在圖書館和新電影方面的家庭娛樂表現將得到進一步提升。

As you know, our self-distribution results in the U.S. since we took over control from Warners in 2000 have been nothing short of spectacular.

如您所知，自從我們在 2000 年從華納手中接過控制權以來，我們在美國的自主發行業績一直非常出色。

In addition, we experienced a 30 percent contribution uplift in the U.K. when we took over control from Fox in 2001.

此外，當我們在 2001 年從 Fox 手中接管控制權時，我們在英國的貢獻增加了 30%。

Now by the middle of 2003, we will also have full self-distribution capability in Canada and full sales and marketing control in Germany and France.

現在，到 2003 年年中，我們還將在加拿大擁有完全的自主分銷能力，並在德國和法國擁有完全的銷售和營銷控制權。

This distribution recapture will give us control of over 88 percent of our worldwide DVD and VHS volume, which should contribute significant growth.

此次重新獲得發行權將使我們能夠控制全球 88% 以上的 DVD 和 VHS 銷量，這將有助於顯著增長。

In the TV arena, besides the extension of the NBC distribution joint venture that Alex mentioned, there have been several other very positive developments. "Stargate: SG1" in its sixth season continues to be the highest rated original series on the Sci-Fi Network and has been the number one weekly original action hour in syndication.

在電視領域，除了亞歷克斯提到的 NBC 分銷合資企業的擴展之外，還有其他幾個非常積極的發展。第六季的“星際之門：SG1”仍然是科幻網絡上評分最高的原創劇集，並且一直是聯合發布的每周原創動作小時數第一。

A seventh season has already been ordered which will bring our total episodes to 154.

第七季已經預定，這將使我們的總集數達到 154 集。

"She Spies," our new syndicated show had a very successful first season.

“她是間諜”，我們的新聯合節目第一季非常成功。

It was the number one new weekly syndicated hour.

這是第一個新的每週辛迪加小時。

We now have three series on Showtime - "Jeremiah" in its second season and two new series ordered, "Dead Like Me," which we are producing, and "Earthlings," which we are distributing internationally.

我們現在在 Showtime 上有三個系列 - 第二季的“Jeremiah”和兩個訂購的新系列，我們正在製作的“Dead Like Me”和我們正在國際發行的“Earthlings”。

Both debut this spring.

兩者都在今年春天首次亮相。

And as we have discussed previously, we have several properties based on our MGM library where recent franchise films that we are developing for network television.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們有幾個基於我們的米高梅圖書館的財產，我們正在為網絡電視開發最近的特許經營電影。

These include the "Thomas Crown affair," "Barbershop," and "Legally Blonde."

其中包括“Thomas Crown 事件”、“Barbershop”和“Legally Blonde”。

We have been very carefully in developing our TV production business, leveraging quality properties and franchise vehicles to establish deal structures that avoid heavy deficit financing while creating significant downside protection.

我們一直非常謹慎地發展我們的電視製作業務，利用優質資產和特許經營工具來建立交易結構，避免嚴重的赤字融資，同時創造重大的下行保護。

As with our film strategy, Alex and I are very confident that our creative and financing strategy in TV has now fully evolved, and we expect strong performance going forward.

與我們的電影戰略一樣，亞歷克斯和我非常有信心我們在電視方面的創意和融資戰略現已全面發展，我們預計未來會有強勁的表現。

Including the positive developments in our MGM channels business, which Alex described, all four of our core businesses are now in very strong operational positions.

包括亞歷克斯所描述的米高梅頻道業務的積極發展，我們所有四項核心業務現在都處於非常強大的運營地位。

We also have a superb management team and we think 2003 is going to be a great year for us - Dan.

我們還有一支優秀的管理團隊，我們認為 2003 年對我們來說將是偉大的一年 - 丹。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

My comments this morning will focus on our December 31st, 2002 balance sheet and guidance for 2003.

我今天上午的評論將集中在我們 2002 年 12 月 31 日的資產負債表和 2003 年的指導意見上。

Our strong balance sheet became even stronger in the fourth quarter.

我們強勁的資產負債表在第四季度變得更加強勁。

Our cash at year-end was $600 million.

年末我們的現金為 6 億美元。

Net debt was $550 million.

淨債務為 5.5 億美元。

Our net debt to capitalization ratio was 15 percent compared to 25 percent at year-end 2001.

我們的淨債務與資本化比率為 15%，而 2001 年底為 25%。

As Alex mentioned, we received $250 million from NBC in early December from the sale of our equity interest in Bravo, and we realized a gain of $32.5 million on this sale.

正如亞歷克斯所提到的，我們在 12 月初從 NBC 出售了我們在 Bravo 的股權中獲得了 2.5 億美元，我們在此次出售中實現了 3250 萬美元的收益。

And now for more detail on our 2003 guidance.

現在了解我們 2003 年指南的更多詳細信息。

Let's start with cash flow.

讓我們從現金流開始。

As a result of the full evolution of our core business strategy, as Chris just described, we expect 2003 to be the first year of significant cash generation and continuing for the foreseeable future.

由於我們核心業務戰略的全面發展，正如克里斯剛才所描述的，我們預計 2003 年將是產生大量現金的第一年，並且在可預見的未來將繼續如此。

The cash flow guidance I'm about to give you is defined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, which is net cash provided by operating AK activities.

我即將給你的現金流指導是根據公認的會計原則定義的，即經營 AK 活動提供的淨現金。

From 2003 to 2006, we expect to generate approximately $900 million in cash flow should our films perform at a 13 percent IRR.

從 2003 年到 2006 年，如果我們的電影的內部收益率為 13%，我們預計將產生大約 9 億美元的現金流。

Should our film perform at break-even we still expect to generate about $600 million in cash flow over the same period.

如果我們的電影實現盈虧平衡，我們仍預計同期將產生約 6 億美元的現金流。

We expect to generate approximately 100 to $150 million of this total in 2003.

我們預計 2003 年將產生大約 100 到 1.5 億美元的總額。

We also expect significantly higher cash flow in 2004, at least 50 percent higher than 2003.

我們還預計 2004 年的現金流會顯著增加，至少比 2003 年高出 50%。

Now, with respect to revenues, we expect an overall revenue gain of 3 percent to 5 percent.

現在，就收入而言，我們預計總收入將增長 3% 至 5%。

All of our operations are expected to show revenue improvement.

我們所有的業務預計都將顯示收入增長。

We plan to release 18 films in 2003, of which 10 will be under the MGM label, compared to 19 films in 2002 of which 6 were MGM films.

我們計劃在 2003 年發行 18 部電影，其中 10 部將以米高梅品牌發行，而 2002 年發行了 19 部電影，其中 6 部是米高梅電影。

On net income, our preliminary guidance was that we would report a loss of 28 cents to 38 cents per share.

關於淨收入，我們的初步指導是每股虧損 28 美分至 38 美分。

To reconcile these results with our free cash flow, you should know that film amortization will exceed cash production spending by approximately 300 million to $350 million in 2003.

為了將這些結果與我們的自由現金流相協調，您應該知道，2003 年電影攤銷將超過現金製作支出大約 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

Should our production plans remain intact for the rest of the year.

如果我們的生產計劃在今年餘下時間保持不變。

We expect this same relationship between film amortization and production spending to be true in 2004 as well.

我們預計 2004 年電影攤銷與製作支出之間的關係也將如此。

We expect to incur total interest costs in 2003 of about 65 to $70 million of which about $10 million will be capitalized to film cost.

我們預計 2003 年的總利息成本約為 65 至 7000 萬美元，其中約 1000 萬美元將用於電影成本。

Cash taxes are expected to be 15 to $20 million.

現金稅預計為 15 至 2000 萬美元。

We expect EBITDA to be between negative 25 million and break-even.

我們預計 EBITDA 將在負 2500 萬和收支平衡之間。

Again, to reconcile EBITDA with our free cash flow, I remind you that film amortization will exceed cash production spending by approximately $300 million to $350 million in 2003 based on our current release schedule.

再一次，為了協調 EBITDA 與我們的自由現金流，我提醒您，根據我們目前的發行計劃，2003 年電影攤銷將超過現金製作支出大約 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

Finally, on quarterly comparisons, I want to make a couple points that might be helpful.

最後，關於季度比較，我想提出幾點可能會有幫助。

As you've seen in the past, there are two main reasons why our performance improved as the year progresses.

正如您在過去看到的那樣，我們的業績隨著時間的推移而提高的主要原因有兩個。

First, TV revenues are skewed towards the third and fourth quarters due to the season at of the business. -- seasonality of the business and secondly, library DVD sales improve steadily through the year culminating with the Christmas season.

首先，由於業務旺季，電視收入偏向第三和第四季度。 -- 業務的季節性，其次，圖書館 DVD 銷售在全年穩步增長，並在聖誕節期間達到高潮。

In addition our results in 2003 in particular will be better in.

另外我們2003年的成績尤其會好一些。

The second half of the year as releasing costs for new films will be higher in the first half of the year.

下半年因為上半年新片的發行成本會更高。

And we do expect the fourth quarter of 2003 to be profitable.

我們確實預計 2003 年第四季度將實現盈利。

So that's our guidance for 2003.

這就是我們 2003 年的指導方針。

Our commitment to delivering $600 million to $900 million in cash flow over the next four years is our top priority.

我們承諾在未來四年內提供 6 億至 9 億美元的現金流是我們的首要任務。

And that's why we're providing cash flow guidance for the first time.

這就是我們首次提供現金流指導的原因。

Operator, you can now open the call for questions, please.

接線員，您現在可以打開電話提問了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to register a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.

女士們，先生們，如果您想提出一個問題，請按您電話上的“一”和“四”。

You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request.

您將聽到三聲提示音以確認您的請求。

If your question has been answered, and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the one followed by the three.

如果您的問題已得到解答，並且您想撤銷註冊，請按一個，然後按三個。

If you are using a speaker phone, please lift up your handset before entering your request.

如果您使用免提電話，請在輸入請求前拿起聽筒。

One moment, please, for the first question.

第一個問題，請稍等。

Our first question comes from the line of David Miller with Sanders Morris Harris.

我們的第一個問題來自大衛·米勒和桑德斯·莫里斯·哈里斯的台詞。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

Congratulations on the quarter.

祝賀這個季度。

Alex, I was wondering if you could expound on your comments regard to the -- with regard to the MGM Networks, if you can talk about what might be on docket for some other MGM channel launches if in fact you have them planned, perhaps, over the next two to three quarters and then with, also, if you can remind us how many total subscribers you have in the MGM Network's platform, that would be wonderful.

亞歷克斯，我想知道你是否可以闡述你對 - 關於米高梅網絡的評論，如果你可以談論一些其他米高梅頻道發布的內容，如果你實際上已經計劃好了，也許，在接下來的兩到三個季度，如果你能提醒我們你在 MGM Network 的平台上有多少訂戶，那就太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, David.

當然，大衛。

Obviously, you've seen we've been rather political in the last three years in (inaudible) international channels.

顯然，你已經看到我們在過去三年中在（聽不清）國際渠道中表現得相當政治化。

We can never preannounce additional launches, but we're very excited about the fact that lately we have been penetrating the European continent which is something that has eluded us in the past.

我們永遠不能預先宣布額外的發射，但我們對最近我們一直在滲透歐洲大陸這一事實感到非常興奮，這在過去是我們無法做到的。

We started with Portugal and followed with Germany and now with the Netherlands.

我們從葡萄牙開始，然後是德國，現在是荷蘭。

It's something that we're very excited about.

這是我們非常興奮的事情。

And we're also in the mode in addition to launching new channels internationally in trying to increase our subscriber base.

除了在國際上推出新頻道以增加我們的用戶群之外，我們也處於這種模式。

Do you have a current count with you, Dan?

丹，你有最新的計數嗎？

No, we haven't got the count for the fourth quarter yet.

不，我們還沒有得到第四季度的數據。

We were in excess of 40 million subs in the third quarter of last year.

去年第三季度，我們的訂閱人數超過 4000 萬。

So if you want, David, we'll have a conversation with you offline and give you the update for the fourth quarter.

所以，如果你願意，大衛，我們將與你進行線下對話，並為你提供第四季度的更新。

That would be great.

那太好了。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Jill Krutick with Salomon Smith Barney.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jill Krutick 與 Salomon Smith Barney 的合作。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早上好。

Could you please give us a sense of how much profit from Bond and what kind of film return is factored into your 150 million operating cash flow?

能否請您了解一下您的 1.5 億運營現金流中有多少邦德利潤以及什麼樣的電影回報？

Hi, Jill.

嗨，吉爾。

This is Dan.

這是丹。

Hi.

你好。

The Bond movie performed substantially above our planned expectations.

邦德電影的表現大大超出了我們的預期。

And as Chris mentioned, it will be the most profitable film we've ever had.

正如克里斯所說，這將是我們有史以來最賺錢的電影。

In 2003, we will have the tail of both the domestic and international theatrical results.

2003年，我們將有國內外戲劇成績的尾巴。

And then in June of '03, as Chris mentioned, the video release.

然後在 03 年 6 月，正如 Chris 提到的，視頻發布。

So we will have a marketing campaign and video cost that we will use to finance that video release.

因此，我們將進行營銷活動和視頻費用，用於資助該視頻發布。

But the cash flow from Bond in '03 will be quite strong.

但 03 年 Bond 的現金流將相當強勁。

As you know, though, we don't comment on specific films in terms of profitability in cash flow with numbers.

不過，如您所知，我們不會根據現金流量的盈利能力對具體電影進行評論。

But it is contributing to our 2003 results (inaudible) and just to reiterate it is the most profitable Bond film ever.

但它對我們 2003 年的業績（聽不清）有所貢獻，重申一下，它是有史以來最賺錢的邦德電影。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Could you elaborate perhaps on what some of your uses of your growing cash arsenal is?

您能否詳細說明您對不斷增長的現金庫的一些用途？

What are we going to do with our strong cash position going forward strategically?

在戰略上，我們將如何處理我們強大的現金狀況？

We, Jill, as you know, we have always articulated our desire to grow as a company.

我們，吉爾，正如你所知，我們一直表達了我們作為一家公司成長的願望。

So our first choice is to use our strong balance sheet to finance the growth of the company.

所以我們的第一選擇是利用我們強大的資產負債表來為公司的發展提供資金。

Having said that, we've always said that we want to grow in a smart way, so whatever transaction we do will be governed by reason, and you can rest assured of that.

話雖如此，我們一直說我們要以聰明的方式發展，所以我們所做的任何交易都會受到理性的約束，這一點你可以放心。

If we do not see opportunities for the growth of the company that I think are smart for our shareholders, then our options are to either reduce debt or to return the money to our shareholders in some form, either in a buyback or a tender or some other transaction.

如果我們看不到我認為對我們的股東來說是明智的公司增長機會，那麼我們的選擇是要么減少債務，要么以某種形式將錢返還給我們的股東，無論是回購、投標還是一些其他交易。

So we're going to take them in that order in terms of our priorities.

因此，我們將按照我們的優先順序來處理它們。

Okay.

好的。

And last question.

最後一個問題。

On DVD, could you give us a sense of how much of your overall library's been converted into DVD or released and what you see as sort of the pricing outlook for DVD's going forward?

在 DVD 方面，您能否告訴我們您的整個圖書館中有多少已轉換為 DVD 或發行，以及您認為 DVD 未來的定價前景如何？

Sure, Jill.

當然，吉爾。

This is Dan.

這是丹。

By the end of 2002, we had released approximately 750 titles on DVD.

到 2002 年底，我們已經發行了大約 750 部 DVD 影片。

We will have new releases of slightly in excess of 200 titles for DVD in 2003, bringing our total to roughly 950 to 1,000 titles.

我們將在 2003 年發行略多於 200 部 DVD 影片，使我們的影片總數達到大約 950 到 1,000 部。

But, of again, you know, we want to point out, given the evergreen nature of the library, the growing nature of the DVD industry, and the fact that consumers have proven that this is a collectible and we expect that to continue, we see growth in the DVD market for the foreseeable future.

但是，你知道的，我們想再次指出，鑑於圖書館的常青樹性質、DVD 行業的不斷發展以及消費者已經證明這是一種收藏品並且我們希望這種情況繼續下去的事實，我們在可預見的未來看到 DVD 市場的增長。

As you know, so far there's only been about a40 percent penetration into U.S. households for DVD hardware.

如您所知，到目前為止，DVD 硬件在美國家庭中的普及率僅為 40%。

As that penetration continues to grow, that just gives us a larger base of consumers to sell as well as to a new base of consumers that regards all of our DVD issues really as new titles as we continue to repromote these titles in our catalog activity.

隨著這種滲透率的持續增長，這只會讓我們有更大的消費者群來銷售，同時也給了一個新的消費者群，他們將我們所有的 DVD 發行真正視為新的標題，因為我們繼續在我們的目錄活動中重新推廣這些標題。

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

If I could just add to what Dan said.

如果我可以補充 Dan 所說的話。

Internationally, the DVD base right now, DVD player base is about half of that in the U.S.

在國際上，現在的DVD基地，DVD播放器基地大約是美國的一半。

And again, that is one of the underpinnings of our strategy that I mentioned in my remarks to recapture control over distribution on a worldwide basis.

再次強調，這是我在發言中提到的在全球範圍內重新控制分銷的戰略的基礎之一。

As I said, by the middle of the year, we'll have 88 percent of our total volume in DVD and VHS under our control going forward.

正如我所說，到今年年中，我們將控制 DVD 和 VHS 總銷量的 88%。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Logsdon with Gerard Klauer & Mattison.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Logsdon 與 Gerard Klauer & Mattison 的對話。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan, could you discuss the dynamics around the improved cash flow in 2004, kind of what are the components that would drive that?

丹，你能談談 2004 年現金流改善的動態嗎？驅動它的因素有哪些？

Sure, Jeff.

當然，傑夫。

There's a couple things going on.

有幾件事正在發生。

First of all, as Chris discussed about our core businesses, we are now completely operational and working on all four cylinders in all of our businesses.

首先，正如克里斯討論我們的核心業務一樣，我們現在已經完全投入運營，並在我們所有業務的所有四個氣缸上工作。

We've had strong release (inaudible) over the last several years that are in all windows in all markets.

在過去的幾年裡，我們在所有市場的所有窗口中都發布了強大的版本（聽不清）。

We're seeing the benefit of that for the first time in 2003.

我們在 2003 年第一次看到了它的好處。

Library revenue growth and contribution has been strong and the DVD market has been explosive.

圖書館收入增長和貢獻一直強勁，DVD 市場呈爆炸式增長。

We're seeing the benefits of that.

我們看到了這樣做的好處。

So what we have is cash flow coming in from all operations.

所以我們擁有的是來自所有運營的現金流。

We've leveled off on the spend on production, so now we're starting to see the cash flow benefits come to the bottom line.

我們已經減少了生產支出，所以現在我們開始看到現金流收益達到了底線。

Our advertising cost will be higher in 2003.

2003 年我們的廣告費用會更高。

As a result of having more wide releases.

由於有更廣泛的版本。

We have a couple notice in the artists wide releases in "Dark Blue" coming out later this month as well as "Jeepers Creepers" later in the year, which is the seek well to the first successful movie.

我們在本月晚些時候上映的“Dark Blue”以及今年晚些時候上映的“Jeepers Creepers”中的藝術家廣泛發行中得到了一些通知，這是對第一部成功電影的追求。

So higher advertising costs are offset by much higher cash flow from the ancillary markets and everything that we're seeing the benefit of that this year and that will continue for the foreseeable future.

因此，更高的廣告成本被來自輔助市場的更高現金流以及我們今年看到的所有好處所抵消，並且在可預見的未來將持續下去。

Dan, what -- the aggregate production costs for '03 and how that compares with '02?

丹，什麼——'03 的總生產成本以及與'02 相比如何？

In '02, our aggregate production cost was roughly $280 million.

02 年，我們的總生產成本約為 2.8 億美元。

That's MGM's investment in the films.

這是米高梅對電影的投資。

In '03, the number is a little bit lower than that, but we are also receiving money for third parties for some of the films that were produced in '02 that will be released in '03.

在 03 年，這個數字比那個低一點，但我們也為一些在 02 年製作並將在 03 年上映的電影收取第三方資金。

These include out of time and "Dark Blue."

其中包括過時和“深藍”。

And perhaps finally, Chris or Dan, if you could maybe go through and just talk about, as you do a second cycle in DVD with some of these titles, these are the ones you mentioned or either other higher profile titles, what are kind of the sales numbers the first time around and what are you seeing as you go into the second cycle of that, especially as you've changed price points?

也許最後，Chris 或 Dan，如果你可以通過並談談，當你用其中一些標題製作 DVD 的第二個週期時，這些是你提到的那些或其他更高知名度的標題，什麼樣的第一次的銷售數字，當你進入第二個週期時，你看到了什麼，尤其是當你改變了價格點時？

Well, Jeff, it's not really changing price points.

好吧，傑夫，這並沒有真正改變價格點。

It's really just an expanded consumer base.

這實際上只是一個擴大的消費群。

In fact, some of our titles, the second release, the price point has been higher because we've done a special edition.

事實上，我們的一些作品，第二版，價格更高，因為我們做了特別版。

It's really more about the expanding consumer base and it's about, you know, promoting into that larger consumer base as well as our improved relationship particularly with the mass retailers that we've accomplished as our self-distribution strategy has evolved over the last couple of years.

這實際上更多的是關於不斷擴大的消費者基礎，你知道，它是關於促進更大的消費者基礎以及我們改善的關係，特別是與我們已經完成的大型零售商的關係，因為我們的自我分銷策略在過去幾年中已經發展年。

So we have a much higher market share relative to the box office performance of our films, and we really have the state-of-the-art distribution organization, you know.

因此，相對於我們電影的票房表現，我們擁有更高的市場份額，而且我們確實擁有最先進的發行機構，你知道的。

We're effectively the last studio to build distribution.

我們實際上是最後一個建立發行版的工作室。

We learned from the -- from our competitors and we have a very strong, very current group here in terms of their expertise and the fact that we've also outsource certain operations and stuff in our home video distribution allows us to keep abreast of the latest developments in retail or distribution strategies.

我們從我們的競爭對手那裡學到了東西，我們在他們的專業知識方面有一個非常強大、非常最新的團隊，而且我們還在家庭視頻分發中外包了某些操作和東西，這使我們能夠跟上零售或分銷策略的最新發展。

We think we have the best home entertainment operation in the business domestically.

我們認為我們擁有國內業內最好的家庭娛樂業務。

And the two facts again that I underscored in my presentation are DVD library market share has gone from 8 percent to 17 percent in the last two years.

我在演講中再次強調的兩個事實是，DVD 庫的市場份額在過去兩年中從 8% 上升到 17%。

That shows their ability basically to handle the library.

這表明他們基本上有能力處理圖書館。

And they've done 20 percent better than the industry average in terms of new film releases in DVD and VHS.

他們在 DVD 和 VHS 新電影發行方面比行業平均水平高出 20%。

And that kind of performance in and those kind of statistics are what really have given us the confidence to aggressively go out and recapture self-distribution on a worldwide basis in the U.S. and Canada and the U.K., Germany, and France.

這種表現和統計數據真正讓我們有信心積極走出去，在美國、加拿大、英國、德國和法國重新獲得全球範圍內的自我分配。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Gallant (ph) with CIBC World Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC World Markets 的 Mike Gallant (ph)。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

You said you're going to spend a little bit less on a negative cost basis net to MGM.

你說你會在米高梅的淨負成本基礎上少花一點錢。

Your P&A costs have to be down quite a bit in '03 versus '02.

與 02 年相比，03 年的 P&A 成本必須下降很多。

Assuming the film slate is more successful in '03 versus '02, which I think there's a very high probability of that, it would seem that you're probably going to show a better than $75 million improvement in EBITDA.

假設電影名單在 03 年比 02 年更成功，我認為這種可能性非常大，那麼您的 EBITDA 可能會顯示出超過 7500 萬美元的改善。

Is that line of thinking perhaps correct as you're being conservative early in the year and there's some room for upside with the successful film slate?

這種思路是否正確，因為你在今年年初比較保守，而且成功的電影名單還有一些上升空間？

Mike, this is Dan.

邁克，這是丹。

Net production costs that I spoke of a few minutes ago refers to the cash expenditures for production, which is -- you know, at this stage of the game is just a little bit of remaining spend on our 2 to 2003 production, but primarily starting to develop our 2004 slate.

幾分鐘前我提到的淨製作成本是指製作的現金支出，你知道，在遊戲的這個階段，這只是我們 2 到 2003 年製作的剩餘支出中的一點點，但主要是開始開發我們的 2004 年名單。

And that will continue into the first part of next year.

這將持續到明年上半年。

Print and advertising costs will be higher in 2003 than in 2002, and I say by about 20 percent or so.

2003 年的印刷和廣告費用將比 2002 年高，我說大約高 20% 左右。

And that's a result of more wide releases, as I mentioned, a couple of UA wide releases plus MGM wide releases.

這是更廣泛發布的結果，正如我提到的，一些 UA 廣泛發布加上 MGM 廣泛發布。

And generating, you know, the release pattern for movies that, you know, we had produced last year and still spend --we're finishing up the production cost for those this year.

並生成，你知道，我們去年製作的電影的發行模式，並且仍在花費——我們正在完成今年這些電影的製作成本。

So there's a bit of a lag between our production spend and when you see that on the screen.

因此，我們的製作支出與您在屏幕上看到的時間之間存在一些滯後。

The other thing we have is we are, as I mentioned, receiving some third-party funds from the right sales that we've done on some of the movies that were produced last year that will be released during the 2003 slate.

我們擁有的另一件事是，正如我提到的，我們從去年製作的一些將在 2003 年上映的電影中進行的正確銷售中獲得一些第三方資金。

And again we feel very comfortable as I said about our 2003 film slate.

正如我所說的關於我們 2003 年的電影名單，我們再次感到非常自在。

We feel the strategy is fully evolved at this point.

我們認為該戰略此時已經完全發展。

We have three sequels in the release plan.

我們在發行計劃中有三個續集。

We have an average investment of non-sequels of $20 million.

我們對非續集的平均投資為 2000 萬美元。

We've got highly marketable high contest films that we think have clearly defined targeted audiences, and fit the "Barbershop" and "Legally Blonde" profile.

我們有非常暢銷的高競爭電影，我們認為這些電影明確定義了目標觀眾，並且符合“理髮店”和“律政俏佳人”的形象。

So Alex and I are very comfortable about the film slate for MGM and UA this year.

所以亞歷克斯和我對今年米高梅和 UA 的電影名單感到非常滿意。

Are you ready for the next question?

你準備好回答下一個問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Routh with Arnhold and Bleichroeder.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Routh 與 Arnhold 和 Bleichroeder 的對話。

Please go ahead with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早上好。

A few quick questions.

幾個簡單的問題。

Earlier in the call you mentioned you had received some distributions from Rainbow, I think it was 40 million in the fourth quarter and another 10 so far.

在早些時候的電話中，你提到你收到了 Rainbow 的一些分配，我認為第四季度是 4000 萬，到目前為止還有 10 萬。

I'm wonder if anything you can give us a little more detail on exactly how the MGM is able to get distributions from the investments in those networks and how much you expect to receive in total in 2003 if in the form of such distributions.

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供更多詳細信息，具體說明米高梅如何能夠從這些網絡的投資中獲得分配，以及如果以這種分配的形式，您預計在 2003 年總共收到多少。

Yes, Robert.

是的，羅伯特。

This is Alex.

這是亞歷克斯。

We have an agreement with our partners at Rainbow that provides that all excess cash flow in excess or in reasonable capital reserve has to be distributed to the partners.

我們與 Rainbow 的合作夥伴有一項協議，規定所有超出或合理資本公積的超額現金流必須分配給合作夥伴。

And as you know, AMC in particular has been generating a lot of excess free cash flow, continues to do so, and because of that, we expect to continue to receive cash distributions from AMC in particular.

如您所知，特別是 AMC 一直在產生大量過剩的自由現金流，並繼續這樣做，因此，我們希望繼續從 AMC 那裡獲得現金分配。

The exact amount hasn't been determined.

具體金額尚未確定。

Again, it's something that our partners and us talk about on a go-forward basis.

同樣，這是我們的合作夥伴和我們在前進的基礎上談論的事情。

But he we have so far received since distribution started about $40 million, as you point out.

但正如你所指出的，自發行開始以來我們迄今收到了大約 4000 萬美元。

And we expect to continue to -- 40, yeah, 40 million.

我們希望繼續 - 40，是的，4000 萬。

We expect to continue to receive more in the future.

我們希望在未來繼續收到更多。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And as far as rumors have obviously been circulating that you may be interested in certain assets of a (inaudible) universal entertainment if they are sold.

就目前流傳的謠言而言，如果出售，您可能會對（聽不清）環球娛樂的某些資產感興趣。

Obviously AMC and some of the cable networks fit well with your strategy.

顯然，AMC 和一些有線網絡非常適合您的策略。

I'm curious if you can give us any sense as to it is there any truth to the rumors of you looking at things other than the Rainbow assets and if so, what particular assets fit the best with your strategy and any sense as to pricing talk if you can comment on that?

我很好奇你能否告訴我們關於你正在考慮 Rainbow 資產以外的東西的傳言是否屬實，如果是的話，哪些特定資產最適合你的策略以及對定價的任何看法談談你是否可以對此發表評論？

Robert, of course we have never commented on rumors or on speculation or on specific opportunities for that matter.

羅伯特，當然，我們從未就此事對謠言、猜測或具體機會發表評論。

The only thing I can confirm for you is the following - we are looking at things other than AMC.

我唯一可以為您確認的是以下內容 - 我們正在尋找 AMC 以外的東西。

We have consistently been doing that for the past two or three years.

在過去的兩三年裡，我們一直在這樣做。

And again, we want to grow the company in a smart way for our shareholders.

再一次，我們希望以一種明智的方式為我們的股東發展公司。

It's very important us to us.

這對我們來說非常重要。

And that's why the one thing we can promise you that whatever transaction we do will be governed by reason.

這就是為什麼我們可以向您保證的一件事是，我們所做的任何交易都將受到理性的約束。

It will not be a transaction that we think will sound good on day one and then our shareholders will regret down the line.

這不會是一項我們認為在第一天聽起來不錯，然後我們的股東就會後悔的交易。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And one follow-up to that.

還有一個後續行動。

In light of that and where your stock is today and given the strength of your balance sheet where you've been, where it looks like you're going on a going-forward basis, you have considered taking the company private?

鑑於此，以及您今天的股票狀況，以及您一直以來的資產負債表實力，看起來您正在向前發展，您是否考慮過將公司私有化？

Because it seems as though that might be the best use of the company's cash at this point.

因為這似乎是目前公司現金的最佳用途。

Well, we'll see.

好吧，我們拭目以待。

We'll see what happens to the price of our stock.

我們將看看我們的股票價格會發生什麼變化。

I think that our focus has been, as you know, on actually growing, growing the company, growing the revenue streams, giving the company more scale, being more vertically integrated and increasing the public flow.

正如你所知，我認為我們的重點一直是實際發展，發展公司，增加收入來源，擴大公司規模，更加垂直整合併增加公眾流量。

However,, you know, given current world economic and geopolitical conditions, I think it's not smart for anybody to rule anything out.

然而，你知道，考慮到當前的世界經濟和地緣政治狀況，我認為任何人排除任何可能性都是不明智的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Raymond Katz with Bear Stearns.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond Katz 與 Bear Stearns 的對話。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

It's Katie Mangliss (ph) for Ray Katz.

我是 Ray Katz 的 Katie Mangliss (ph)。

A couple of questions.

幾個問題。

The first one is, what is your steady state cash flow from operations that we can expect once the film amortization costs and the cash production spending costs become sort of more aligned as we kind of move forward from the period where you had higher production cash costs?

第一個是，一旦電影攤銷成本和現金製作支出成本變得更加一致，我們可以預期您的運營穩定現金流量是多少，因為我們從生產現金成本較高的時期向前邁進？

And the second question is, could you give us a sense of what age of your home video -- what percentage of your home video DVD revenue comes from the rental market giving you a rental share agreement with Blockbuster?

第二個問題是，你能否告訴我們你的家庭視頻的年齡 - 你的家庭視頻 DVD 收入中有多少百分比來自租賃市場，讓你與 Blockbuster 簽訂了租賃分成協議？

We were just wondering how that's working out.

我們只是想知道結果如何。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Katie, hi.

凱蒂，嗨。

This is Dan.

這是丹。

In terms of steady state cash flow, I provided some guidance looking forward for the next four years, both in terms of '03 and the fact that '03 continues to ramp up as we move into '04.

在穩態現金流方面，我提供了一些展望未來四年的指導，包括 '03 年和 '03 年隨著我們進入 '04 年而繼續增加的事實。

In terms of amortization versus cash production costs, we have acquired libraries on our books.

在攤銷與現金生產成本方面，我們已經在我們的賬簿上獲得了圖書館。

We have film - total film inventory costs in the neighborhood of about $2 billion.

我們有膠片——膠片庫存總成本約為 20 億美元。

Amortization will always exceed production costs at this company for the -- or at least for the foreseeable future until that high base of previously capitalized both production costs and purchase cost is amortized off our books.

攤銷將始終超過這家公司的生產成本——或者至少在可預見的未來，直到之前資本化的生產成本和採購成本的高基數從我們的賬簿上攤銷。

That will continue for awhile.

這將持續一段時間。

So amortization will continue with -- you know, the noncash costs associated with amortization for the foreseeable future.

因此，攤銷將繼續——你知道，在可預見的未來，與攤銷相關的非現金成本。

In terms of the AGG rental market, about 60 percent of our AGG revenues come from the sell-through market and about 4040 percent from the rental market.

就 AGG 租賃市場而言，我們約 60% 的 AGG 收入來自銷售市場，約 4040% 來自租賃市場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Simon (ph) with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Richard Simon (ph) 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Earlier, you had mentioned that you had a 10 percent return on first cycle production.

早些時候，您曾提到您在第一周期生產中獲得了 10% 的回報。

And I assume by that first cycle is six or seven years of production or of the life of the film.

我假設第一個週期是六七年的製作或電影的生命週期。

Was that return accumulative return or was it some type of other return?

該回報是累積回報還是某種其他回報？

Orin other words if you invested $1,000, did you get $1,100 back over the first cycle period or was it somehow calculated differently?

或者換句話說，如果您投資了 1,000 美元，您是在第一個週期內收回了 1,100 美元，還是以某種不同的方式計算出來的？

Hi, Richard.

嗨，理查德。

This is Dan.

這是丹。

The 10 percent is calculated as the cash on cash return over the expected 10-year ultimates for the films.

這 10% 是根據電影預期 10 年最終期限的現金回報率計算的。

As you know, it's very easy in our business to project ultimates once films have been released.

如您所知，一旦電影上映，在我們的業務中就很容易投射終極效果。

These are the accounting ultimates that we use for this purpose which, you know, accounting ultimates.

這些是我們為此目的使用的會計終極，你知道，會計終極。

So they're very carefully calculated and considered.

所以他們是經過非常仔細的計算和考慮的。

Although we use 10-year all the mitts, most of the revenue does come in within the first six to seven years.

雖然我們使用 10 年的所有手套，但大部分收入確實在前六到七年內出現。

You know, particularly once we've hit the network -- the pretelevision window, if you will, that's the last major window to open, which is about 3 1/2 years after -- 3, 3 1/2 years after theatrical.

你知道，特別是一旦我們進入網絡——電視前的窗口，如果你願意的話，那是最後一個打開的主要窗口，大約在 3 1/2 年後——在戲劇上映後 3、3 1/2 年。

Okay.

好的。

So the return then is a 10 percent return over that 7-ish, 10-ish year period.

因此，在 7 年左右、10 年左右的時間裡，回報率為 10%。

Correct.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of William Drury (ph) from CSFB.

我們的下一個問題來自 CSFB 的 William Drury (ph)。

Please proceed with your question.

請繼續你的問題。

Good morning.

早上好。

It's Deborah Schwartz (ph) on for Bill.

比爾的黛博拉·施瓦茨 (ph)。

Wonder if anything you could just quickly touch on home video margins and particularly if you could quantify the impact of DVD's in the quarter as well as what you can expect going into '03.

想知道您是否可以快速觸及家庭視頻利潤，特別是如果您可以量化 DVD 在本季度的影響以及您對 03 年的預期。

Home video margins have been consistently strong.

家庭視頻的利潤率一直很高。

The blended margin is running in the upper 40 percent.

混合利潤率在 40% 以上。

We expect that margin to continue in 2003.

我們預計 2003 年將繼續保持這一優勢。

The fourth quarter was very strong in the home video business, as.

第四季度的家庭視頻業務非常強勁。

As you know, we had new releases like crocodile hunter out there and wind talkers as wells very strong library performance.

如您所知，我們發布了新版本，例如鱷魚獵人和風語者，以及非常強大的庫性能。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski with AG Edwards.

我們的下一個問題來自 AG Edwards 的 Michael Kupinski。

Thank you, and congratulations on your quarter.

謝謝，並祝賀你的季度。

Are there any network TV movies scheduled to run in 2003, and if so, when?

是否有計劃在 2003 年上映的網絡電視電影，如果有，什麼時候上映？

And I know you stated that the Bond DVD sell-through will be in June.

我知道你說過邦德 DVD 的銷售將在 6 月進行。

In your guidance for 2003, do you anticipate that virtually all of the windows for that Bond film including Pay-Per-View so forth are in the 2003 year?

在您對 2003 年的指導中，您是否預計邦德電影（包括按次付費等）的幾乎所有窗口都在 2003 年？

And then I just have one quick follow-up.

然後我只有一個快速跟進。

Michael, this is Dan.

邁克爾，這是丹。

In terms of network movies, nothing -- I honestly can't think of anything off the top of my head that we are releasing in '03. "Carrie" was our last network movie which came out in November '02 during the sweeps. "Dead Like Me" will have a two-hour pilot launching the series this spring other than that I'm not aware of any ...

就網絡電影而言，沒什麼——老實說，我想不出我們在 03 年發行的任何東西。 “Carrie”是我們的最後一部網絡電影，於 02 年 11 月上映。 “像我一樣死了”今年春天將有一個兩小時的飛行員推出該系列，除此之外我不知道任何......

... films going to the network or movie of the week.

... 進入網絡的電影或本週電影。

I think you mean feature films.

我想你是說故事片。

Right, feature films.

對，故事片。

Feature films going to network.

故事片走向網絡。

Yeah.

是的。

Gosh, I can't think of anything.

天哪，我想不出任何東西。

Okay.

好的。

I'm just drawing a blank.

我只是在畫一個空白。

We'll get back to you with some information on that.

我們會就此向您提供一些信息。

Okay.

好的。

I don't have the schedule sitting in front of me.

我面前沒有時間表。

In terms of your second question, was ...

關於你的第二個問題，是......

Regarding Bond in terms of all the windows.

關於所有窗戶的邦德。

Are they all falling this year?

今年都跌了嗎？

No.

不。

Video and Pay-Per-View will fall this year and we'll be generating revenue and cash flow associated with those windows, which will spill over at least on a cash basis into 204.

視頻和按次付費將在今年下降，我們將產生與這些窗口相關的收入和現金流，這將至少在現金基礎上溢出到 204。

Pay-Per-View -- I'm sorry, pay television will be fourth quarter '03 for revenue but for cash will be in 2004.

按次付費——抱歉，付費電視的收入將在 03 年第四季度出現，但現金將在 2004 年出現。

Okay.

好的。

And network is 2005.

網絡是2005年。

Okay.

好的。

And then on -- could you add a little bit more color on the development for barbershop as a TV comedy.

然後 - 你能為理髮店作為電視喜劇的發展添加更多色彩嗎？

Any timeline there, what your negotiation and so forth?

那裡有任何時間表，您的談判是什麼等等？

And then also any up dates on the "Legally Blonde" television program.

然後還有“律政俏佳人”電視節目的任何更新。

Okay.

好的。

With "Legally Blonde," you know, we have a deal in place right now with ABC.

對於“律政俏佳人”，您知道，我們現在與 ABC 達成了協議。

And that deal basically allows us to determine when it would go forward with the network.

這筆交易基本上使我們能夠確定何時推進該網絡。

And right now again, we're trying to sequence it so that we can have the sequel come out on the fourth of July ort his summer.

現在又一次，我們正在嘗試對它進行排序，以便我們可以讓續集在 7 月 4 日或他的夏天上映。

And they be you know tentatively we're talking about mid season, a pickup for this series on NBC.

他們是你暫時知道的，我們正在談論賽季中期，這是 NBC 系列節目的轉播。

Okay.

好的。

On ABC, sorry.

在 ABC 上，對不起。

And on "Barbershop" we're in discussions with one network.

在“理髮店”上，我們正在與一個網絡進行討論。

We're finalizing a deal with that network.

我們正在與該網絡完成交易。

And we're sort of on the same timeline.

我們在同一條時間線上。

We're targeting barber shop, the sequel to come out on the fourth quarter of this year.

我們的目標是理髮店，續集將於今年第四季度上映。

Okay.

好的。

And then we're considering (inaudible) the network - with the network launching the "Barbershop" television show as amid season pickup in 2004 or the following fall.

然後我們正在考慮（聽不清）網絡 - 網絡在 2004 年或次年秋季推出“理髮店”電視節目。

What we're trying to work the thing in a way that we maximize the overall value of the franchise and obviously to sequence a TV show after the theatrical sequel comes out seems to be the right course of action.

我們正在嘗試以最大化特許經營權的整體價值的方式來處理這件事，顯然在戲劇續集上映後安排電視節目的順序似乎是正確的做法。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder to register for a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.

女士們，先生們，作為註冊問題的提醒，請按您電話上的“一”和“四”。

David Miller with Sanders Morris Harris, please go ahead with your follow-up question.

大衛米勒和桑德斯莫里斯哈里斯，請繼續回答你的後續問題。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Alex, you had said you had so far repurchased 3 million shares I believe at an average price, I want to make sure I heard correctly, of $11.22 out of a 10 million share buyback program. (inaudible) stock a -- since your average price is in the 11's can we assume you're going to take advantage of these prices and perhaps buy back more shares here?

亞歷克斯，你說過到目前為止你已經以平均價格回購了 300 萬股股票，我想確保我沒有聽錯，1000 萬股回購計劃中的平均價格為 11.22 美元。 （聽不清）股票 a——因為你的平均價格在 11 美元左右，我們可以假設你會利用這些價格並可能在這裡回購更多股票嗎？

Let me give you the exact numbers.

讓我給你確切的數字。

It's -- we have bought 2,922,800 shares at an average price of 11.44 dollars (ph).

這是——我們以平均 11.44 美元 (ph) 的價格購買了 2,922,800 股股票。

Okay.

好的。

That's the answer to your first question.

這就是你第一個問題的答案。

And with respect to your second question, we do consider the stock an unbelievable bargain at this level.

關於你的第二個問題，我們確實認為這隻股票在這個水平上是一個令人難以置信的便宜貨。

So when we're allowed to go -- if the market conditions are the same when we're able to buy back, you can expect us to do so.

因此，當我們被允許離開時——如果我們能夠回購時市場條件相同，你可以期待我們這樣做。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jeff Logsdon with Gerard Klauer Mattison.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Logsdon 和 Gerard Klauer Mattison。

Go ahead with your question.

繼續你的問題。

This one's for Dan.

這是給丹的。

Correct me if you're wrong but you've got $75 million a year in step-up amortization from the Orion pictures Sam Goldwyn acquisition.

如果你錯了，請糾正我，但你每年從收購 Orion pictures Sam Goldwyn 中獲得 7500 萬美元的逐步攤銷。

Somewhere between 20 cents and 30 cents a share, isn't it?

每股 20 美分到 30 美分之間，不是嗎？

Well, doing the math, Jeff, the numbers actually since our library has been performing so well and we expect it to continue to do so, the numbers actually between $80 million to $90 million now.

好吧，傑夫，算一算，自從我們的圖書館表現如此出色以來，這些數字實際上一直很好，我們希望它能繼續如此，現在這些數字實際上在 8000 萬到 9000 萬美元之間。

And it's probably 30-plus cents a share in terms of the charge.

就收費而言，每股可能超過 30 美分。

That is a step up associated with the Orion and Polygram acquisitions as well as the original MGM library that we acquired in '96.

這是與 Orion 和 Polygram 收購以及我們在 96 年收購的原始 MGM 圖書館相關的進步。

Figure about 36 cents a share.

數字約為每股 36 美分。

So just to clarify, so every year you - or at least this next year or this year you're starting out the year 36 cents in the hole no matter what anything else does.

所以只是澄清一下，所以每年你 - 或者至少明年或今年你開始的時候是 36 美分，無論其他事情如何。

Yes, Jeff, regretfully, that's the case.

是的，傑夫，很遺憾，情況就是這樣。

No, I think I just -- I'm trying to make the case that, you know, in many companies, as analysts we don't look at net EPS.

不，我想我只是 - 我試圖證明，在許多公司中，作為分析師，我們不看淨每股收益。

Yes.

是的。

To really guide for the health of a company.

真正為公司的健康發展提供指導。

I'm not trying to be critical on it.

我並不是要批評它。

I'm just - you know, when people look at the guidance for 2003 and trying if to figure out we've got this negative EPS number, what am I missing?

我只是 - 你知道，當人們查看 2003 年的指導並試圖弄清楚我們是否有這個負的 EPS 數字時，我錯過了什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

I'm trying to fill in the gap for my own thinking, this is an area where we can't look so much at the EPS number to guide our thinking about the health of the company.

我試圖填補我自己思考的空白，這是一個我們不能過多關注 EPS 數字來指導我們對公司健康狀況的思考的領域。

Yes, that's correct, Jeff.

是的，沒錯，傑夫。

That is one of the things that we -- that's an expense, a noncash expense that we continue to amortize against our results, against EBITDA, too, that our competitors don't share the same issue.

這是我們的一件事——這是一項費用，一項非現金費用，我們繼續根據我們的結果攤銷，也根據 EBITDA，我們的競爭對手不存在同樣的問題。

Jeff, this is Alex.

傑夫，這是亞歷克斯。

If you take that sort of consistent, you know, $80 million to $90 million worth of purchase price accounting amortization that we carry from having acquired the film libraries that you mentioned, when you combine that with Dan's statement that with respect to current production also, amortization exceeds production costs, I think those two items explain a very big part of the difference as to why for book purposes we end up showing an EPS loss at least for the time being and for cash flow generating purposes we're so healthy.

如果你採取那種一致的，你知道的，我們從收購你提到的電影庫中獲得的價值 8000 萬到 9000 萬美元的購買價格會計攤銷，當你將其與丹關於當前製作的聲明相結合時，攤銷超過生產成本，我認為這兩項解釋了很大一部分差異，即為什麼出於賬面目的，我們最終至少暫時顯示每股收益損失，而出於產生現金流的目的，我們非常健康。

So that's -- I think that's a very important thing to sort of point out.

所以那是——我認為這是一件非常重要的事情，需要指出。

In addition, you know, the new accounting rules that we have in our industry now in reality, they don't make that much sense, because under the old rules, the matching of revenue and expense was much better than it is under the new rules.

另外，你知道，我們這個行業現在的新會計規則，實際上沒有那麼大的意義，因為在舊規則下，收入和費用的匹配比在新規則下要好得多。規則。

And, of course, over time, that timing difference will catch up.

當然，隨著時間的推移，時間差異會趕上來。

But that's right, I think your observation about the amortization expense is very telling.

但沒錯，我認為你對攤銷費用的觀察非常有說服力。

But it just seems like most of the other companies put it under the impairment charge and just write off millions of dollars.

但似乎大多數其他公司都將其計入減值費用並註銷了數百萬美元。

So sorry you get the pain every quarter.

很抱歉你每個季度都會感到痛苦。

That's all.

就這樣。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Our last question comes from the line of Mike Gallant with CIBC World Markets.

我們的最後一個問題來自 CIBC World Markets 的 Mike Gallant。

Please go ahead with your follow-up question.

請繼續回答您的後續問題。

Yeah, can you talk about what your expected working capital changes we might see in operating cash flow this year, '03, versus '02?

是的，你能談談我們今年 03 年與 02 年的運營現金流中我們可能看到的預期營運資本變化嗎？

And then also kind of what the NOL position looks like at year-end.

然後還有年末 NOL 職位的情況。

I'll take your second question first.

我先回答你的第二個問題。

The NOL at year-end is approximately $460 million.

年底的 NOL 約為 4.6 億美元。

With respect to working capital changes, we expect some growth in networking capital on our balance sheet (inaudible) as a result of the normal growth of our business, particularly the expanse of the AGG self-distribution operations and the revenue top line revenue will (inaudible) higher receivables there.

關於營運資本變化，我們預計由於我們業務的正常增長，我們資產負債表上的網絡資本（聽不見）會有所增長，特別是 AGG 自我分銷業務的擴大和收入頂線收入將（聽不見）更高的應收賬款。

Inventory for home video should actually stay flat to a little bit down.

家庭視頻的庫存實際上應該持平或略有下降。

And other than that, there shouldn't be anything particularly surprising in our balance sheet.

除此之外，我們的資產負債表中不應該有任何特別令人驚訝的事情。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

If there are no more questions, we'll end the call.

如果沒有其他問題，我們將結束通話。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

We'll be in Santa Monica if you have follow-up questions.

如果您有後續問題，我們將在聖莫尼卡。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you one and all.

謝謝大家。

We'll talk to you soon.

我們會盡快與您聯繫。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may all disconnect, and thank you for participating.

你們都可以斷開連接，感謝你們的參與。