Sonoco Products Co (SON) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Sonoco Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度 Sonoco 收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lisa Weeks, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁麗莎·威克斯 (Lisa Weeks)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for Sonoco's Second Quarter '23 Earnings Call. Joining me this morning are Howard Coker, President and CEO; Rob Dillard, Chief Financial Officer; and Rodger Fuller, Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝您，運營商，也感謝大家今天加入我們參加 Sonoco 的 23 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起來的是總裁兼首席執行官霍華德·科克 (Howard Coker)；羅布·迪拉德，首席財務官；羅傑·富勒，首席運營官。

Last evening, we issued a news release highlighting our financial performance for the second quarter and we prepared a presentation that we will reference during this call. The press release and presentation are available online under the Investor Relations section of our website at sonoco.com.

昨晚，我們發布了一份新聞稿，重點介紹了我們第二季度的財務業績，並準備了一份演示文稿，供我們在本次電話會議期間參考。新聞稿和演示文稿可在我們網站 sonoco.com 的投資者關係部分在線獲取。

As a reminder, during today's call, we will discuss a number of forward-looking statements based on current expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Therefore, actual results may differ materially. Please take a moment to review the forward-looking statements on Page 2 of the presentation.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論一些基於當前預期、估計和預測的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並受到某些風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請花點時間查看演示文稿第 2 頁上的前瞻性陳述。

Additionally, today's presentation includes the use of non-GAAP financial measures, which management believes provides useful information to investors about the company's financial condition and results of operations. Further information about the company's use of non-GAAP financial measures, including definitions as well as reconciliations to GAAP measures is available under the Investor Relations section of our website.

此外，今天的演示還包括使用非公認會計原則財務指標，管理層認為這些指標為投資者提供了有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息。有關公司使用非公認會計準則財務衡量標準的更多信息，包括定義以及與公認會計準則衡量標準的調節，請訪問我們網站的投資者關係部分。

For today's call, Howard will begin by covering a summary of second quarter '23 performance. Rob will then review our detailed financial results for the quarter, and along with Rodger Fuller, will discuss our guidance update for the full year 2023. Howard will then provide closing comments followed by a Q&A session.

在今天的電話會議中，霍華德將首先總結 23 年第二季度的業績。然後，Rob 將審查我們本季度的詳細財務業績，並將與 Rodger Fuller 一起討論我們 2023 年全年的指導更新。霍華德隨後將提供總結評論，然後進行問答環節。

If you will turn to Slide 4 in our presentation. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Howard Coker.

請參閱我們演示文稿中的幻燈片 4。我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官霍華德·科克。

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning to everyone. I just want to start by acknowledging the strong performance and cash flows, subsequently against the backdrop of a highly volatile environment. Rob will take you through the details. But what I'll tell you is that market conditions were pretty turbulent in the quarter, with the more down shift in demand as the quarter progressed. Translating into lower volumes across virtually every area of our business on a global basis.

謝謝你，麗莎，祝大家早上好。我只想首先承認在高度波動的環境背景下的強勁業績和現金流。羅布將帶您了解詳細信息。但我要告訴您的是，本季度的市場狀況相當動盪，隨著本季度的進展，需求下降幅度更大。這意味著我們在全球範圍內幾乎所有業務領域的銷量都在下降。

For the second quarter, net sales were $1.7 billion, EBITDA was $275 million and adjusted earnings per share were $1.38. Most of our businesses were at or above expectations for the quarter due to commercial and operational excellence and productivity improvements. And other businesses that were most affected by lower volumes were consumer model and global industrials, which were impacted by inventory management and destocking programs with our customers.

第二季度淨銷售額為 17 億美元，EBITDA 為 2.75 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.38 美元。由於商業和運營的卓越性以及生產力的提高，我們的大多數業務都達到或超過了本季度的預期。受銷量下降影響最大的其他業務是消費者模型和全球工業，它們受到庫存管理和客戶去庫存計劃的影響。

To give you my perspective, overall, customers in Metal and Industrials are buying less, both related to staples and discretionary items. Our customers are searching for price point elasticity which creates demand and inventory management challenges throughout the supply chain. Our customers are faced now with real macro-driven changes in consumer buying habits around working capital management priorities and promotional timing, which makes visibility harder in the near term.

就我的觀點而言，總體而言，金屬和工業領域的客戶購買量有所減少，無論是與主食還是非必需品相關的商品。我們的客戶正在尋求價格點彈性，這給整個供應鏈帶來了需求和庫存管理挑戰。我們的客戶現在面臨著圍繞營運資金管理優先事項和促銷時機的消費者購買習慣的真正宏觀驅動的變化，這使得短期內的可見性變得更加困難。

The downstream impact is reflected in our Industrials business, where we provide products serving the broader manufacturing sector and packaging used in household staples, discretionary goods and construction. Buying is slowing down and lower volumes are also slow. However, even though the -- through these turbulent times, we were able to deliver 16% of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter. Our hard work over the past few years on the portfolio, structural simplification, operational improvements and commercial excellence have enabled more stable profitability than in prior economic slowdowns in our history.

下游影響反映在我們的工業業務中，我們提供服務於更廣泛的製造業的產品以及用於家庭必需品、非必需品和建築的包裝。購買正在放緩，成交量下降也很緩慢。然而，儘管經歷了這些動盪時期，我們仍能夠在本季度實現 16% 的調整後 EBITDA。過去幾年，我們在投資組合、結構簡化、運營改進和商業卓越方面的努力使我們的盈利能力比歷史上以往的經濟放緩時期更加穩定。

While we're not satisfied with these results, our excellent cash flow and EBITDA margins reinforce the durability of our underlying profitability and integrity of our strategy.

雖然我們對這些結果並不滿意，但我們出色的現金流和 EBITDA 利潤率增強了我們基本盈利能力的持久性和戰略的完整性。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob for more details on the quarter and our '23 outlook. Rob?

接下來，我會將電話轉給 Rob，了解有關本季度和我們 23 年展望的更多詳細信息。搶？

Thanks, Howard. I'll begin on Slide 6 with a review of key financial results for the second quarter. Please note that all results discussed will be adjusted and all growth metrics will be on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise stated. The GAAP to non-GAAP EPS reconciliation can be found in the appendix of this presentation as well as in the press release.

謝謝，霍華德。我將從幻燈片 6 開始回顧第二季度的主要財務業績。請注意，除非另有說明，否則討論的所有結果都將進行調整，並且所有增長指標都將按年計算。 GAAP 與非 GAAP EPS 調節表可在本演示文稿的附錄以及新聞稿中找到。

As Howard said, the second quarter financial results reflect Sonoco's ability to deliver strong results despite a low-volume environment. We continue to achieve strong results in most businesses in the portfolio, including meaningful improvement in rigid paper containers and all other and record results in flexibles. A few businesses were below expectations and meaningfully impacted the consolidated results, mainly Metal Packaging and Consumer and Industrial North America.

正如霍華德所說，第二季度的財務業績反映了索諾克公司在銷量低迷的情況下交付強勁業績的能力。我們繼續在投資組合中的大多數業務中取得強勁成果，包括在硬紙容器和所有其他軟包裝容器方面取得有意義的改進和創紀錄的成果。一些業務低於預期並對合併業績產生了重大影響，主要是金屬包裝以及北美消費品和工業業務。

Consolidated sales decreased to $1.7 billion. This sales decrease was primarily driven by lower volumes due to inflationary pricing and destocking at our customers and retail as well as index-based price decreases in Metal Packaging and Industrial. Adjusted operating profit decreased to $211 million and adjusted EBITDA decreased to $275 million. Importantly, we maintained an above 16% adjusted EBITDA margin through continued focus on commercial and operational excellence as well as long-term cost controls associated with our business transformation program.

綜合銷售額下降至 17 億美元。銷售額下降的主要原因是我們的客戶和零售業的通脹定價和去庫存以及金屬包裝和工業行業基於指數的價格下降導致銷量下降。調整後營業利潤下降至 2.11 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 下降至 2.75 億美元。重要的是，通過持續關注商業和卓越運營以及與業務轉型計劃相關的長期成本控制，我們保持了 16% 以上的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $1.38. Nonoperating factors impacted EPS negative $0.07 due to higher interest rates on floating rate debt. The sales bridge on Slide 7 provides the primary drivers for revenue growth in the quarter.

調整後每股收益下降至 1.38 美元。由於浮動利率債務利率上升，非經營因素導致 EPS 負 0.07 美元。 Slide 7 上的銷售橋樑為本季度收入增長提供了主要驅動力。

Volume mix was negative $190 million or negative 9.9%, this volume decrease was anticipated and was in the low to mid-single digits in most businesses. We continue to have active dialogue with customers and have been able to mitigate low volumes with operational and cost actions in most businesses. Two notable exceptions to this were disrupted demand in a handful of customers in Metal Packaging and lower-than-anticipated demand in Industrial North America.

銷量組合為負 1.9 億美元或負 9.9%，這一銷量下降是預期的，並且在大多數企業中處於中低個位數。我們繼續與客戶進行積極對話，並能夠通過大多數企業的運營和成本行動來緩解銷量低的問題。兩個值得注意的例外是金屬包裝行業少數客戶的需求中斷以及北美工業市場的需求低於預期。

The fixed cost structures of these businesses make them more sensitive to volume uncertainty and this had a meaningful impact on the consolidated results. Acquisitions, divestitures also had a minor negative impact on sales and were accounted for in volume on the bridge. Excluding acquisitions and divestitures, volume mix was negative 9.7%.

這些業務的固定成本結構使它們對數量不確定性更加敏感，這對合併業績產生了重大影響。收購、資產剝離也對銷售產生了輕微的負面影響，併計入了橋樑的銷量中。不包括收購和資產剝離，銷量組合為負 9.7%。

Price was negative $15 million. Our pricing performance continues to reflect strategic pricing efforts associated with our commercial excellence strategy, mainly selling to value and managing contracts to recover inflation. Most businesses achieved marginally positive price performance in the quarter. This was offset by meaningful index-based price decreases in metal packaging and consumer and the paper businesses globally and Industrial.

價格為負1500萬美元。我們的定價表現繼續反映與我們的商業卓越戰略相關的戰略定價努力，主要是按價值銷售和管理合同以恢復通貨膨脹。大多數企業在本季度的價格表現均略有上升。這被全球金屬包裝和消費品以及造紙業務和工業領域基於指數的顯著價格下跌所抵消。

The adjusted operating profit bridge illustrates the year-over-year change in greater detail. Volume mix was negative $65 million as operations were impacted by the previously discussed impact of inflationary pricing and destocking at our customers and retail. Price cost was positive $12 million in the quarter as strategic pricing and purchasing also had the predicted impact of $27 million of metal price overlap. Other included higher depreciation and positive FX, and improved operating profit of $4 million in the quarter.

調整後的營業利潤橋更詳細地說明了同比變化。銷量組合為負 6500 萬美元，因為運營受到之前討論的通脹定價和客戶和零售去庫存的影響。本季度價格成本為正 1,200 萬美元，因為戰略定價和採購也預計會產生 2,700 萬美元金屬價格重疊的影響。其他因素包括較高的折舊和積極的匯率，以及該季度營業利潤提高了 400 萬美元。

Slide 8 has an overview of our segment performance for the quarter. Consumer sales decreased to $924 million. Flexible sales grew mid-single digits and rigid paper container sales grew low single digits due to strong price and generally resilient volume mix. Sales in metal packaging decreased due to template-based price pass-throughs and inventory management driven volume decreases at a handful of customers in both food and aerosol.

幻燈片 8 概述了我們本季度的部門業績。消費者銷售額下降至 9.24 億美元。由於強勁的價格和普遍具有彈性的銷量組合，柔性紙容器的銷售額增長了中個位數，而硬質紙容器的銷售額增長了低個位數。由於基於模板的價格傳遞和庫存管理導致少數食品和氣霧劑客戶的銷量下降，金屬包裝的銷售額下降。

Consumer operating profit decreased to $95 million due primarily to lower volume and negative price cost. Flexibles had record operating profit and Rigid Paper Containers grew operating profit more than 15%. Consumer operating profit margin decreased to 10.3%. Consumer cost -- price/cost was negative $20 million as strong price cost in Rigid Paper Containers and Flexibles was offset by the impact of metal price overlap.

消費者營業利潤下降至 9500 萬美元，主要是由於銷量下降和負價格成本。軟包裝營業利潤創歷史新高，硬質紙容器營業利潤增長超過 15%。消費者營業利潤率下降至10.3%。消費者成本——價格/成本為負 2000 萬美元，因為硬質紙容器和軟質紙容器的強勁價格成本被金屬價格重疊的影響所抵消。

Excluding Metal Packaging, the Consumer segment would have grown operating profit over 30% and operating profit margins would have been 15%. Metal packaging is performing well in the disrupted demand environment and has improved results from the (inaudible) purchased the business when adjusted for metal price overlap. We're ahead of plan on our synergy projects, and we believe we've improved the competitive position of the business as we continue to invest in high-return projects.

如果不包括金屬包裝，消費品部門的營業利潤將增長 30% 以上，營業利潤率為 15%。金屬包裝在需求中斷的環境中表現良好，並且在根據金屬價格重疊進行調整後，（聽不清）購買業務的業績有所改善。我們的協同項目超出了計劃，我們相信，隨著我們繼續投資高回報項目，我們已經提高了業務的競爭地位。

Turning to Industrial. Industrial sales decreased to $585 million. Industrial volumes decreased 15% due to lower demand in all key markets and geographies. This decrease was most acute in North America and Europe, so all regions were impacted. Operating profit decreased to $87 million as positive price/cost was offset by lower volumes and negative productivity from deleveraging. Notably, this was only $7 million less than the record results in the first quarter of 2023.

轉向工業。工業銷售額下降至 5.85 億美元。由於所有主要市場和地區的需求下降，工業產量下降了 15%。這種下降在北美和歐洲最為嚴重，因此所有地區都受到了影響。營業利潤下降至 8700 萬美元，因為正價格/成本被銷量下降和去槓桿化帶來的負生產率所抵消。值得注意的是，這僅比 2023 年第一季度創紀錄的業績少了 700 萬美元。

The Industrial segment achieved positive price cost of $21 million as commercial excellence activities continue to align price with the value of products created. Operating profit margin increased to 14.9%, a meaningful improvement from previous cyclical lows. All other sales were flat at $197 million, and operating profit increased 73% to $29 million.

由於商業卓越活動繼續使價格與所創造的產品價值保持一致，工業部門實現了 2100 萬美元的正價格成本。營業利潤率增至 14.9%，較之前的周期性低點顯著改善。所有其他銷售額持平，為 1.97 億美元，營業利潤增長 73%，達到 2900 萬美元。

Moving to Slide 9. Our capital allocation framework is aligned with our business strategy to drive value creation for our shareholders. Our priority is to allocate capital to high-return investments in our core businesses to drive growth and improve efficiency. We remain focused on increasing the dividend, which at present is $0.51 per share on a quarterly basis or greater than 3% average yield over the past 12 months. After capital investments in the dividend, we prioritize investments in accretive M&A aligned with our long-term strategy, balanced against our strategic priority of maintaining strong liquidity and accidental capital.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們的資本配置框架與我們的業務戰略保持一致，以推動為股東創造價值。我們的首要任務是將資金配置到核心業務的高回報投資上，以推動增長並提高效率。我們仍然專注於增加股息，目前每季度股息為 0.51 美元，過去 12 個月的平均收益率高於 3%。在對股息進行資本投資後，我們優先投資於符合我們長期戰略的增值併購，與我們保持強勁流動性和意外資本的戰略重點相平衡。

We ended the second quarter with over $1 billion in total liquidity. In the second quarter, we generated $251 million of operating cash flow and invested $78 million in capital expenditures.

第二季度結束時，我們的流動資金總額超過 10 億美元。第二季度，我們產生了 2.51 億美元的運營現金流，並投資了 7800 萬美元的資本支出。

On Slide 10, we have our guidance update. Our Q3 EPS guidance is $1.25 to $1.35. We're revising our full year 2023 EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.40. We're also revising our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.02 billion to $1.07 billion. We are affirming our full year 2023 operating cash flow guidance to $925 million to $975 million. We anticipate closing the RTS and WestRock paper mill acquisition this year, and this is not in our forecast.

在幻燈片 10 上，我們更新了指導意見。我們第三季度 EPS 指導為 1.25 美元至 1.35 美元。我們正在將 2023 年全年每股收益指引從 5.10 美元修改為 5.40 美元。我們還將 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引修訂為 10.2 億美元至 10.7 億美元。我們確認 2023 年全年運營現金流指引為 9.25 億至 9.75 億美元。我們預計今年將完成對 RTS 和 WestRock 造紙廠的收購，但這不在我們的預測之內。

Now Rodger will discuss the 2023 outlook.

現在羅傑將討論 2023 年的展望。

Thanks, Rob. So please turn to Slide 11 for review of segment performance drivers for the third quarter of 2023. First, with the Consumer segment for the third quarter, we expect continued strong performance in our global rigid paper containers from both existing and new products as sustainability-driven initiatives are driving a pipeline of new growth opportunities.

謝謝，羅布。因此，請參閱幻燈片11，回顧2023 年第三季度的細分市場業績驅動因素。首先，在第三季度的消費者細分市場中，我們預計現有和新產品的全球硬紙容器將繼續保持強勁的業績，因為可持續性 -推動的舉措正在推動一系列新的增長機會。

And on a positive note, select European customers are launching our all paper products in European markets this summer using Sonoco's unique and proprietary technology. In fact, we're expanding capacity for rigid paper containers in Brazil, Malaysia and Poland to take advantage of globalization of products that use our technology. We also expect continued strong performance in our flexible packaging business. The team is doing just a phenomenal job of expanding this business with new and existing customers and the productivity numbers are very impressive. These drivers will sustain flexible's performance into the next quarter.

積極的一面是，部分歐洲客戶今年夏天將使用 Sonoco 獨特的專有技術在歐洲市場推出我們的所有紙製品。事實上，我們正在巴西、馬來西亞和波蘭擴大硬紙容器的產能，以利用使用我們技術的產品的全球化優勢。我們還預計我們的軟包裝業務將繼續保持強勁表現。該團隊在與新客戶和現有客戶拓展業務方面做得非常出色，而且生產力數字非常令人印象深刻。這些驅動因素將維持靈活的業績到下個季度。

We anticipate metal volumes improving sequentially in the third quarter as we enter pack season. Both food and aerosol can volumes are below our original expectations for the second half due to inventory destocking that Howard and Rob have already referenced. Even with lower volumes, metal profitability will improve from higher sequential volumes and the reduced impact of metal price overlap. Lastly, we expect seasonally soft volumes in our rigid plastic foods business, where volume was also a challenge in the second quarter.

我們預計，隨著進入包裝季節，第三季度金屬銷量將持續改善。由於霍華德和羅布已經提到的庫存去庫存，食品和氣霧罐銷量都低於我們對下半年的最初預期。即使銷量較低，金屬盈利能力也將因連續銷量增加和金屬價格重疊影響減少而提高。最後，我們預計硬質塑料食品業務的銷量會出現季節性疲軟，該業務的銷量在第二季度也是一個挑戰。

Turning to the Industrial segment. We expect volumes to decline sequentially from the second quarter and remained soft globally through the second half of the year in both our paper and converted products. All geographies are suffering from persistent demand weakness across our core industrial markets for paper, film cores and textiles. Our customers are citing lower end market demand and customer destocking as factors for these to these declines. Protective packaging for consumer white goods was up 5% versus a relatively soft demand in 2022. We're also expanding this paper-based protective packaging into the European market.

轉向工業領域。我們預計，我們的紙張和加工產品的銷量將從第二季度開始連續下降，並在下半年保持全球疲軟狀態。所有地區的核心工業市場對紙張、薄膜芯和紡織品的需求持續疲軟。我們的客戶將低端市場需求和客戶去庫存視為造成這些下降的因素。與 2022 年相對疲軟的需求相比，白色消費品的保護性包裝增長了 5%。我們還將這種紙質保護性包裝擴展到歐洲市場。

With lower volumes, productivity improvements remain challenging from deleveraging. We continue to aggressively manage variable expenses as the countermeasure to minimize the impacts from the lower volumes. In our all other businesses, we continue to have net stable demand across this collection of business with some positive seasonal impacts and note for vaccine shippers in our ThermoSafe products business. We're managing price costs as resin prices remained stable to declining, so minimal impacts to all other businesses from resin in the third quarter.

由於產量下降，去槓桿化仍對生產率的提高構成挑戰。我們繼續積極管理可變費用，作為盡量減少銷量下降的影響的對策。在我們的所有其他業務中，我們在這一系列業務中繼續保持穩定的淨需求，並帶來一些積極的季節性影響，並請注意我們 ThermoSafe 產品業務中的疫苗托運人。由於樹脂價格保持穩定甚至下降，我們正在管理價格成本，因此第三季度樹脂對所有其他業務的影響微乎其微。

And finally, as we discussed before, we continue to invest in high return capital in our all other business for productivity and run these businesses as efficiently as we can. We expect to also see the benefits of these improvements into the next quarter and beyond. So overall, in the Consumer segment in the third quarter, we have seasonal sales improvement and the -- all Other segment is expected to continue to perform well.

最後，正如我們之前討論的，我們繼續在所有其他業務中投資高回報資本，以提高生產力，並儘可能高效地運營這些業務。我們預計在下個季度及以後還會看到這些改進的好處。因此，總體而言，在第三季度的消費者細分市場中，我們的季節性銷售有所改善，並且所有其他細分市場預計將繼續表現良好。

In our Industrial segment, we're suffering through a really challenging demand environment. Thanks to our team for their diligence in managing these tough times as we will see greater benefits in industrial when volumes return as evidenced by our margin performance in Industrial in Q2.

在我們的工業領域，我們正面臨著一個非常具有挑戰性的需求環境。感謝我們的團隊在應對這些困難時期的努力，當銷量回升時，我們將看到工業領域更大的收益，正如我們第二季度工業領域的利潤率表現所證明的那樣。

And with that, Howard, I'll get back to you.

霍華德，我這就給你回复。

Thanks for that update. I think, Rob and Rodger have covered the results and outlook well. Before we open up the question, I just want to provide an update on elements of Sonoco that are core to our enterprise strategy, and you can find them on Slide 12. First, I continue to receive questions on where we are relative to reshaping the portfolio. I'll just tell you -- it is active. We are managing a funnel of accretive acquisitions and plans for non-core divestitures over the next few years. As you know, the deal environment is not great right now and any future selling or buying of assets or businesses will be based on timing for the best value for our shareholders.

感謝您的更新。我認為，羅布和羅傑已經很好地闡述了結果和前景。在我們提出問題之前，我只想提供有關 Sonoco 企業戰略核心要素的最新信息，您可以在幻燈片 12 上找到它們。首先，我不斷收到關於我們在重塑企業戰略方面的相關問題。文件夾。我只是告訴你——它是活躍的。我們正在管理未來幾年的一系列增值收購和非核心資產剝離計劃。如您所知，目前的交易環境並不理想，未來任何資產或業務的出售或購買都將基於為股東帶來最佳價值的時機。

On the operating model side, I think our EBITDA results prove we are operating well in choppy waters right now. We have the plans, capabilities and discipline to operate in this market, and we have durable processes to manage and align costs to opportunities and challenges. Given our expectations for market demand, we have amplified our ongoing discipline and expense management.

在運營模式方面，我認為我們的 EBITDA 結果證明我們目前在波濤洶湧的水域中運營良好。我們擁有在這個市場運營的計劃、能力和紀律，並且我們擁有持久的流程來管理成本並使成本與機遇和挑戰保持一致。鑑於我們對市場需求的預期，我們加強了持續的紀律和費用管理。

As Rob highlighted, we're continuing to generate solid cash in the business, and our investment-grade balance sheet is strong. We raised our dividend last quarter, and we will remain focused on the best ways to generate returns for our shareholders. And finally, our commitment to ESG and sustainability initiatives are unwavering and remain wholly aligned to the core values of the company.

正如羅布所強調的那樣，我們的業務將繼續產生穩定的現金，而且我們的投資級資產負債表也很強勁。我們上季度提高了股息，我們將繼續專注於為股東創造回報的最佳方式。最後，我們對 ESG 和可持續發展計劃的承諾堅定不移，並與公司的核心價值觀完全一致。

I'll just close with this. The hallmark of Sonoco is to serve our customers whenever, wherever and however they need us to be and they know we will be there to help them navigate the future as we have through COVID and a number of other challenges. Actions we have taken over the past 3 or 4 years have resulted in a stronger operating model to handle times of uncertainty, and we will continue to adapt and evolve to build a better Sonoco now and in the future.

我就以此結束吧。 Sonoco 的標誌是隨時隨地為我們的客戶提供服務，他們知道我們將幫助他們應對未來，就像我們度過新冠疫情和許多其他挑戰一樣。我們在過去 3 或 4 年中採取的行動已經形成了更強大的運營模式來應對不確定時期，我們將繼續適應和發展，以在現在和未來建立更好的 Sonoco。

And with that, and at this time, we'll be happy to entertain any questions you may have.

至此，此時，我們將很樂意解答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 和 Robert W. Baird 的線路。

There's obviously a lot going on with comparisons and the impact of COVID, but you're now around 10% EBIT margins for the Consumer segment, which basically matches segment margins from back in 2019. Just curious how -- and Rodger, is this the right baseline for margins on a go-forward basis?

顯然，有很多比較和新冠疫情的影響，但現在消費者細分市場的息稅前利潤率約為10%，這基本上與2019 年的細分市場利潤率相當。只是好奇，羅傑，這是如何實現的？未來利潤率的正確基線？

On the consumer side, Ghansham?

在消費者方面，Ghansham？

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

No. I think if you look at the impact and if you go back to what we've publicized with the metal issues that we had to absorb really year-to-date through the first 2 months of the second quarter really brought those down. So actually, we expect to be north of the 10%, well north of the 10% on a go-forward basis once we clear out some of these one-off type events.

不。我認為，如果你看看影響，如果你回顧一下我們所公佈的金屬問題，我們今年迄今為止必須在第二季度的前兩個月真正吸收這些問題，這確實使這些問題下降了。因此，實際上，一旦我們清除了其中一些一次性事件，我們預計將在未來的基礎上超越 10%，遠高於 10%。

Okay. And then on the Industrial side, I mean, I think you mentioned 15% decline in volumes in the segment. Obviously, end markets are weaker, and that's playing a major role in that. I'm just trying to reconcile that versus the operating margins you're delivering in that segment, which are quite a bit higher relative to your historical baseline and just your thoughts as it relates to the sustainability of that margin threshold.

好的。然後在工業方面，我的意思是，我認為您提到該領域的銷量下降了 15%。顯然，終端市場疲軟，這在其中發揮了重要作用。我只是試圖將其與您在該細分市場中提供的營業利潤率進行協調，該利潤率相對於您的歷史基線和您的想法要高得多，因為它與該利潤率閾值的可持續性相關。

Yes, Ghansham, not to go back too far, but I'll talk about the last 3 or 4 years, but really in the last 5 or 6 years, we have really put a lot of capital towards improving the performance of our Industrial business on a global basis, and I won't talk through all of the projects that -- and opportunities that we've pursued over these periods of time.

是的，Ghansham，不要回溯太遠，但我會談論過去 3 或 4 年，但實際上在過去 5 或 6 年裡，我們確實投入了大量資金來改善我們工業業務的業績在全球範圍內，我不會談論我們在這段時間裡所追求的所有項目和機會。

But the one I will is Project Horizon. What I'll say about Horizon is you can say, look, on the surface with volumes where they are, we have not been able to take advantage of the productivity associated with that investment. But on the other hand, it also took us out of the corrugated medium market where we are nonintegrated and a very small machine and scope of the rest of the industry, which you think about previous times where we saw similar type slowdowns, be it in COVID or even all the way back to the '08, '09 time period. We self-helped ourselves by 15% of our North American paper volume is no longer tied to a market that -- we have absolutely really at the time had absolutely no outlook for that capacity.

但我想要的是地平線計劃。關於地平線，我要說的是，你可以說，從表面上看，我們還沒有能夠利用與該投資相關的生產力。但另一方面，它也讓我們脫離了瓦楞紙市場，在這個市場中，我們是非集成的，機器和範圍都非常小，與行業其他行業相比，你想想以前我們看到類似類型的放緩，無論是在新冠病毒甚至可以追溯到 08、09 年時期。我們通過自助方式將北美紙張產量的 15% 不再與某個市場掛鉤——當時我們對這一產能絕對沒有任何前景。

So I was using that only as a reference to the number of projects that we've undertaken to improve the overall durability of our industrial business.

因此，我僅將其用作我們為提高工業業務整體耐用性而開展的項目數量的參考。

Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

Yes. One was something we kind of picked up in the trade publications here in the past week or so, talking about URB imports into the U.S. I don't really recall this something as a topic we've read about maybe on the last 10 years or something like that. So just curious, Howard, do you view this more of a function of kind of local demand patterns that producers are maybe experiencing in their local markets and then perhaps something maybe that you expect to persist for whatever reason. And just curious if you're moving anything around your own system just based maybe on an ability or cost of OCC.

是的。其中一個是我們在過去一周左右的時間裡在貿易出版物中發現的，談論 URB 進口到美國。我真的不記得這是我們在過去 10 年或可能讀過的主題。類似的事情。所以，霍華德，你只是好奇，你是否認為這更像是生產商可能在當地市場經歷的當地需求模式的函數，然後也許你希望出於某種原因持續存在某種東西。只是好奇您是否僅根據 OCC 的能力或成本在自己的系統中移動任何內容。

Gabe, this is Rodger. Imports of URB into the U.S. is really nothing new. I know it was picked up in the publication, but there have been imports coming in for many years. It did stop during COVID because of the high cost of logistics and transportation. And it picks back up now as the cost of containers have returned to a more reasonable level. So that's new.

加布，這是羅傑。 URB 進口到美國確實不是什麼新鮮事。我知道它在出版物中被提及，但多年來一直有進口。由於物流和運輸成本高昂，它在新冠疫情期間確實停止了。隨著集裝箱成本回到更合理的水平，它現在又回升了。所以這是新的。

And as far as our system, we represented in every region. So we really don't move forward from region to region simply because we don't need to do that but when volumes are soft, like they are now, seating board come in from -- on the East Coast from places like Italy or on the West Coast from Asia is not unusual, and we've dealt with that for many years.

就我們的系統而言，我們在每個地區都有代表。因此，我們確實不會從一個地區轉移到另一個地區，因為我們不需要這樣做，但是當銷量疲軟時，就像現在一樣，座位板來自東海岸，來自意大利或其他地方來自亞洲西海岸的情況並不罕見，我們已經處理這個問題很多年了。

Okay. And then I guess maybe a question going into '24. I mean to the extent that we see some of these kind of choppy order patterns or maybe softer than what we'd expect demand can you talk about just, I guess, your ability, I mean, to variabilize the cost structure? Or I mean you guys have been fairly active to drive margins higher here of late on the commercial side. Maybe how demand dependent, from your productivity is, that you talk about getting on an annual basis and if there's anything kind of outside of pattern that you could do as things are soft right now?

好的。然後我想也許是 24 年的一個問題。我的意思是，在某種程度上，我們看到了一些不穩定的訂單模式，或者可能比我們預期的需求更疲軟，我想，你能談談你改變成本結構的能力嗎？或者我的意思是，你們最近在商業方面相當積極地提高利潤率。也許您談論的每年的需求對您的生產力的依賴程度如何，以及在目前情況疲軟的情況下您是否可以做任何超出模式的事情？

Yes. We obviously are taking the necessary rightsizing actions to match the current demand profile. And that's across operations and certainly on the fixed side as well. As we look -- the encouraging -- encouragement I have about what's going on right now, we've said all along -- what I'll say, all along the last several periods that we are in a better position today to handle uncertain times as we're in right now. It just makes me feel very positive as we we'll see -- hopefully see demand start to pick back up. And the ability to leverage that beyond the margin profiles that we're looking at right now, I guess pulse for a really positive viewpoint as volumes do recover.

是的。顯然，我們正在採取必要的規模調整行動，以滿足當前的需求狀況。這涉及整個運營領域，當然也涉及固定領域。當我們看到——令人鼓舞的——我對現在正在發生的事情感到鼓舞時，我們一直在說——我會說，在過去的幾個時期裡，我們今天處於更好的位置來應對不確定性就像我們現在所處的時代一樣。這讓我感到非常積極，正如我們將看到的那樣——希望看到需求開始回升。以及利用超出我們現在正在考慮的利潤狀況的能力，我想隨著交易量的恢復，我們會產生真正積極的觀點。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

First, can you just kind of update us in your guidance, how much is the metal price overlap? Is it still kind of in the $40 million region? Or has that changed?

首先，您能否在您的指導中向我們介紹一下最新情況，金屬價格重疊程度是多少？它仍然在 4000 萬美元區域嗎？或者情況已經改變了？

Yes. Mark, this is Rob. For the quarter, metal price overlap was negative $27 million. And so that includes what we incurred this year plus the year-over-year impact. And in Q1, as you remember, that was $86 million. That's largely completed, if not totally completed for the year at this point. So the full year metal price overlap will be $130 million.

是的。馬克，這是羅布。本季度金屬價格重疊為負 2700 萬美元。這包括我們今年發生的事情以及同比影響。正如您所記得的，第一季度的銷售額為 8600 萬美元。目前，即使今年尚未完全完成，也已基本完成。因此全年金屬價格重疊將為 1.3 億美元。

Okay. And so you cut your guidance on EBITDA by $80 million. So could you kind of walk through what the biggest components of that reduction would have reflected?

好的。因此，您將 EBITDA 指導削減了 8000 萬美元。那麼您能否介紹一下減少的最大組成部分反映了什麼？

Yes. So it was a 5% to 15% decrease in the EBITDA guide if you think about that by segment, Consumer is going to be down. We're expecting between 15% and 20%, largely driven by the metal price overlap, which we just discussed and then also some relatively negative or meaningfully negative performance in plastic foods, which was -- has been down due to the perimeter store business, which we're working through right now.

是的。因此，如果你按細分市場來考慮，那麼 EBITDA 指南會下降 5% 到 15%，消費者將會下降。我們預計在15% 到20% 之間，這主要是由我們剛剛討論過的金屬價格重疊推動的，然後是塑料食品的一些相對負面或有意義的負面表現，由於周邊商店業務，這種表現一直在下降，我們現在正在解決這個問題。

Industrial is going to be relatively flat actually year-over-year with some positive price cost and volume mix kind of offsetting each other. Other will be up 40% to 50% and so that should bridge you to the total impact for the year.

工業行業實際上同比將相對持平，一些積極的價格成本和銷量組合會相互抵消。其他將增加 40% 到 50%，這樣您就可以了解今年的總體影響。

Okay. And just to clarify, in terms of what the delta versus your prior expectations, where was that concentrated? And...

好的。只是想澄清一下，就增量與您之前的預期相比，增量集中在哪裡？和...

It's really an industrial. I think that when we originally set up the view for the year, we thought that the Industrial would only really have these negatively low volume environment for the first half and that we see some moderation in the second half. And what we're seeing really with our customers is people have -- they haven't seen it this low for this long, we are at kind of 2009 kind of levels in terms of volumes from an industry perspective and a utilization perspective, and so there has been this expectation that it has to recover sooner than later. And our current view is that it won't recover in 2023.

這確實是一個工業。我認為，當我們最初設定今年的觀點時，我們認為工業只會在上半年真正出現這些負低成交量環境，而下半年我們會看到一些放緩。我們在客戶身上真正看到的是人們——他們已經很久沒有看到這麼低的水平了，從行業角度和利用率角度來看，我們的銷量處於 2009 年的水平，並且因此人們一直期望它必須盡快恢復。我們目前的觀點是2023年不會恢復。

Right. And it really is striking because it had fallen quite a bit even in the second half of last year. And I mean, are you getting a better sense as to how much of this may have been a function of the volumes having been inflated during the pandemic versus destock or sort of where the trend line would be?

正確的。這確實令人震驚，因為即使在去年下半年，它也出現了相當大的下降。我的意思是，您是否更好地理解了其中有多少可能是大流行期間銷量膨脹與去庫存或趨勢線所在位置的函數？

No, we don't think that there were inflated volumes at all during COVID. Actually, there was a modest slip down. We think that this is really just complete destocking of that industry and some disruption associated with inventories.

不，我們認為新冠疫情期間根本沒有出現成交量誇大的情況。事實上，有輕微的下滑。我們認為這實際上只是該行業的徹底去庫存以及與庫存相關的一些破壞。

Okay. Super. And just one last quick one, if I could. Just on RTS, any update, you did say you anticipated it to close by the end of this year. I believe there's the second request. Any color you can give us in terms of how that's progressing?

好的。極好的。如果可以的話，就快點講最後一首吧。就 RTS 而言，任何更新，您都曾說過預計會在今年年底前關閉。我相信還有第二個要求。您能給我們透露一下進展情況嗎？

Yes, Mark, it's Howard. We expect to close late third quarter, early first quarter.

是的，馬克，我是霍華德。我們預計將在第三季度末、第一季度初結束。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安東尼·佩蒂納里 (Anthony Pettinari)。

This is Greg on for Anthony. My first question is on the pack season. So you've heard comments from others around maybe some inclement weather, kind of a lackluster harvest season impacting this year. So I'm wondering from your perspective, how would you characterize this year's ag harvest and pack season relative to prior years and then relative to your expectations heading in? And acknowledging the harvest is solely out of your control. Is it possible to quantify the impact of weather or adverse harvest on food can volumes in the second quarter? And to what degree a poor harvest is factored into your full year guidance?

這是格雷格替補安東尼。我的第一個問題是關於打包季節。所以你已經聽到了其他人的評論，可能是一些惡劣的天氣，今年的收穫季節可能會受到影響。所以我想知道，從您的角度來看，您如何描述今年的農業收穫和包裝季節相對於往年以及相對於您的預期？承認收穫完全是你無法控制的。是否可以量化天氣或不利收成對第二季度食品罐頭銷量的影響？歉收在多大程度上被納入您的全年指導中？

Yes. I would say if you really got deeper into our metal volumes were pretty similar to what CMI data, the public data represented. But when you really dig into it it's down to a couple of discrete customers on the food can side and on the aerosol side as well. And if you take those out, you were actually flat to up. So -- and what we're seeing from a pack safety perspective, what we're seeing from one in particular is that things are starting to pick up now and expect that they should start normalizing as we enter into the third quarter.

是的。我想說的是，如果你真的深入了解，我們的金屬量與公開數據所代表的 CMI 數據非常相似。但當你真正深入研究時，你會發現食品罐和氣霧劑方面都有一些離散的客戶。如果你把它們去掉，你實際上是平坦的。因此，從包裝安全的角度來看，我們特別看到的是，情況現在開始好轉，並預計隨著我們進入第三季度，它們應該開始正常化。

Others -- the other couple related to conscious choices of price over volume, but also we're seeing that the volume is starting to return there as well. Similarly, non-pack related, but on the aerosol side, same as we enter the third quarter, July does not make a quarter, but we are seeing remarkable improvements in the couple of aerosol accounts that brought us down.

其他的——另一對與有意識地選擇價格而不是數量有關，但我們也看到數量也開始回到那裡。同樣，與包裝無關，但在氣霧劑方面，與我們進入第三季度一樣，7 月並沒有達到一個季度，但我們看到了導致我們下滑的幾個氣霧劑賬戶的顯著改善。

So broadly speaking, and Rob talked to this, we're extremely pleased with the performance of the business, the integration, the synergies obtained and frankly, the market reception that we've received. So we view this as this second core phenomena has not been one of any concern at all. And we feel like we are starting to see in July than our customers are telling us that we are making a positive turn at this point in time. So I hope that helps, Greg.

從廣義上講，羅布談到了這一點，我們對業務表現、整合、所獲得的協同效應以及坦率地說，我們收到的市場反應感到非常滿意。因此，我們認為第二個核心現像根本沒有引起任何關注。我們覺得我們在 7 月份就開始看到客戶告訴我們，我們在這個時間點正在取得積極的轉變。所以我希望這會有所幫助，格雷格。

Thank you, Mr. Coker. Yes, that's very helpful. I appreciate the color. And just my second question and last question is around price, I guess, across the entire Sonoco portfolio. So we've seen weaker volumes now for a few quarters, destocking. I'm wondering historically, how and when those volume weakness translate into customer pushback on pricing? And then if you could segue that into what you're seeing in today's marketplace, that would be really helpful.

謝謝你，科克先生。是的，這非常有幫助。我很欣賞它的顏色。我想我的第二個問題和最後一個問題是關於整個索諾科投資組合的價格。因此，我們已經看到幾個季度的銷量疲軟，庫存減少。我想知道，從歷史上看，這些銷量疲軟如何以及何時轉化為客戶對定價的抵制？然後，如果您可以將其融入當今市場中所看到的內容中，那將非常有幫助。

Yes, I'm going to talk about the Industrial side to start with, which is a bit of a head scratcher for us. We've always looked at -- if you think about what our industrial business, we supply the beginning of really industrial and consumable supply chains. And historically, what we would have seen is that as the Industrial businesses slowed, we see an adverse or the opposite happening on the consumer side that's starting to pick up. And this is kind of unique situation that we're in right now.

是的，我要首先談談工業方面，這對我們來說有點令人頭疼。我們一直在關注——如果你想想我們的工業業務，我們提供真正的工業和消費品供應鏈的開端。從歷史上看，我們會看到，隨著工業業務放緩，我們看到消費者方面出現不利或相反的情況，而這種情況開始好轉。這是我們現在所處的獨特情況。

Our industrial -- if you're looking at the data and data alone, you would say that the global economies are in pretty big trouble. But that is not what we're hearing, but it's certainly what we're feeling. So question mark from our perspective is what is going on here for textile, films major markets to be down on a global basis as they are understandably in Europe where they think acknowledged in a recession, we understand it. But we're not -- we have not thus far seen the pick up on the consumer side. And I think that relates to your question, Greg, is how many customers, and we are seeing customers saying, "Hey, look, we're taking price over volume at this point in time, but we're starting to see cracks in that, that we are seeing more promotion activity". Our customers are telling us that we should see some improvements going forward on the consumer side. The industrial side is the real head scratcher right now. But I will say, again, that the position that we put ourselves in times like this allows us to perform extremely well, even though the volumes aren't where we would like them to be.

我們的工業——如果你只看數據和數據，你會說全球經濟陷入了相當大的麻煩。但這不是我們聽到的，但確實是我們感受到的。因此，從我們的角度來看，紡織品、電影主要市場在全球範圍內出現下滑是一個問號，因為歐洲的情況是可以理解的，他們認為歐洲已經陷入了經濟衰退，我們理解這一點。但我們沒有——到目前為止，我們還沒有看到消費者方面的回升。我認為這與你的問題相關，格雷格，有多少客戶，我們看到客戶說，“嘿，看，我們此時此刻考慮的是價格而不是數量，但我們開始看到裂縫我們看到了更多的促銷活動”。我們的客戶告訴我們，我們應該看到消費者方面的一些改進。工業方面是目前真正令人頭疼的問題。但我要再說一遍，我們在這樣的時期所處的位置使我們能夠表現得非常好，儘管銷量沒有達到我們希望的水平。

Yes, this is Rodger. I would just add, we have built in some margin compression in Industrial into the third and fourth quarters, primarily due to higher costs. OCC on average up, let's call it, $8 to $10 a ton well deserved wage increases for our team. So not so much from price but some continued inflation in the system. So again, we did built in some margin compression as we get to the second half of the year.

是的，這是羅傑。我想補充一點，我們在第三和第四季度對工業領域的利潤率進行了一定程度的壓縮，這主要是由於成本上升。 OCC 平均工資上漲了，我們團隊的工資上漲了每噸 8 至 10 美元，這是當之無愧的。因此，與其說是來自價格，不如說是來自系統中持續的通貨膨脹。所以，到了下半年，我們確實壓縮了一些利潤率。

Our next question comes from the line of Cleve Rueckert with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的克利夫·魯克特 (Cleve Rueckert)。

I just have one follow-up on the guidance and really a couple of questions there. But firstly, how did market conditions develop in the second quarter? I mean, it sounds like maybe the plan had some improvement in Industrial in the second half built in that didn't materialize. I'm just curious to understand, like did market conditions weakened in the second quarter? Or was it just the lack of orders that didn't come through, and now you sort of lost some visibility into the second half?

我只是對該指南進行了後續跟進，並提出了幾個問題。但首先，第二季度的市場狀況如何發展？我的意思是，聽起來該計劃可能在下半年對工業進行了一些改進，但並未實現。我只是想知道，第二季度市場狀況是否疲軟？或者只是因為缺乏訂單而沒有完成，現在你對下半年失去了一些可見性？

Yes. This is Rodger. In Industrial, yes, we were -- as we exited the first quarter, we expected some improvement in volumes in Industrial in the second half of the year. What we're hearing from our customers now, we just believe that's simply not going to happen. So as you look at sequentially, the third quarter is going to be down 4% versus our second quarter volumes. So that's pretty weak and then continued weakness into the fourth quarter. So frankly, again, we were expecting some of the inventory had worked itself out of the system, and we'd see some pickup now in our guidance, we're not seeing that in the second half of the year. I think that was the biggest volume change from our previous guidance to where we are today.

是的。這是羅傑。在工業方面，是的，我們在第一季度結束時預計下半年工業銷量會有所改善。我們現在從客戶那裡聽到的消息是，我們只是相信這種情況根本不會發生。因此，按順序來看，第三季度的銷量將比第二季度下降 4%。所以這是非常疲軟的，然後持續疲軟到第四季度。坦率地說，我們再次預計一些庫存已經脫離系統，我們現在會在我們的指導中看到一些回升，但在今年下半年我們不會看到這種情況。我認為這是從我們之前的指導到今天的最大的成交量變化。

Okay. So it's sort of a lack of improvement not necessarily a weakening of market conditions.

好的。因此，這只是缺乏改善，並不一定是市場狀況惡化。

Correct. Correct. While seasonally, Europe is always slower in the third quarter. So again, total Industrial is seasonally down about 4% versus the second quarter.

正確的。正確的。從季節性來看，歐洲第三季度的增長速度總是較慢。同樣，工業總量較第二季度季節性下降約 4%。

Yes. And then so just in the Industrial business, what are your lead times there in that business? And I'm just kind of curious like how quickly do you think market conditions could turn around and improve? Is there -- like it looks like in the guidance, if I just take the midpoint, Q4 is kind of the low point on EPS, it sounds like that's conservative, but I'm just wondering, is there a potential to outperform that? Or do you kind of have visibility into the end of the year now. And if you do get the orders that you're looking for, they'll be coming in 2024.

是的。那麼在工業業務中，您在該業務中的交貨時間是多少？我只是有點好奇，您認為市場狀況能多快好轉並改善？是否有——就像指導中的樣子，如果我只取中點，第四季度是每股收益的最低點，聽起來很保守，但我只是想知道，是否有可能超越這個點？或者你現在對今年年底有一定的了解嗎？如果您確實收到了所需的訂單，它們將在 2024 年到達。

Yes, Cleve, the -- we don't normally carry large backlogs, just the nature of our business. But what I'd say is right now, we're basing our forecast on the best information that we have. One of the best gossip that I can look at is what we're hearing and across the North American economic situation right now being more on a positive trend than most people thought. Is that fully sustainable you would certainly think that the business that we're in, which is the -- really the point -- the top of the air in terms of the manufacturing, industrial and consumer products that we should be -- we should benefit from that. So we don't have that crystal ball in front of us. Our customers can only tell us what they know at this point in time. And so yes, we are continuing to drive out the current type of demand profile that we're seeing through the end of the year, could that change, not sure...

是的，克利夫，我們通常不會積壓大量訂單，這只是我們業務的性質所致。但我現在要說的是，我們的預測是基於我們所掌握的最佳信息。我能看到的最好的八卦之一是我們所聽到的，整個北美經濟形勢目前比大多數人想像的更加積極。你肯定會認為我們從事的業務是完全可持續的，這就是——真正的重點——我們應該在製造、工業和消費品方面處於領先地位——我們應該從中受益。所以我們面前沒有那個水晶球。我們的客戶只能及時告訴我們他們所知道的情況。所以，是的，我們正在繼續消除我們在今年年底看到的當前類型的需求狀況，這種情況是否會改變，不確定......

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Thanks for the details. Can you hear me okay?

感謝您提供詳細信息。你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, George.

是的，喬治。

So happy August. I guess the first question I had, if we look at the sequential earnings downtick 3Q versus 2Q, and Rodger, I think you covered this already in some of the other questions. Is it roughly 50-50, would you say between the inflation and the volume downtick you're seeing in Industrial, would that be -- or how would you frame it for us from the 2Q number to the 3Q guide?

八月真快樂。我想我的第一個問題是，如果我們看看第三季度與第二季度的連續盈利下降，羅傑，我認為你已經在其他一些問題中提到了這一點。大約是50-50，你會說在工業中看到的通貨膨脹和數量下降之間，會是這樣嗎？或者你會如何為我們從第二季度的數字到第三季度的指導制定它？

That's close, George. I think that's probably very close.

很接近了，喬治。我認為這可能非常接近。

Okay. Now -- what's interesting is that some of the other companies that buy tubes and cores for winding their products that we cover have started to see some sequential improvement, still down year-on-year but seeing improved trends 3Q versus 2Q. And yet, what you're relaying here is industrial that's still pretty weak. So how should we reconcile that? What's -- what are we missing in terms of that interpretation and which end markets look particularly weak sequentially 3Q versus 2Q for Industrial.

好的。現在，有趣的是，我們所涵蓋的一些購買管子和磁芯來纏繞其產品的其他公司已經開始看到一些連續的改善，仍然同比下降，但看到第三季度與第二季度相比趨勢有所改善。然而，你在這里傳達的是仍然相當薄弱的工業。那麼我們應該如何調和呢？我們在這種解釋方面缺少什麼，以及哪些終端市場在工業領域第三季度與第二季度相比看起來特別疲軟。

Yes, right, George, it's Rodger. Textiles and film are the weakest as we look forward. We have seen some recovery in the paper side, more on the corrugated side, not so much on printing and writing. But what we're hearing primarily from textiles and film really globally, they're seeing little recovery, and I think it goes back to inventory in the system and their customers working through the inventory they have in the system. As Howard said, we hope their crystal ball is not totally correct, but we're going by what they tell us.

是的，沒錯，喬治，是羅傑。展望未來，紡織品和電影是最弱的。我們看到紙張方面有所恢復，瓦楞紙方面恢復得更多，而印刷和書寫方面則沒有那麼多。但我們主要從全球範圍內的紡織品和薄膜行業了解到，他們幾乎沒有看到復蘇，我認為這可以追溯到系統中的庫存以及他們的客戶處理系統中的庫存。正如霍華德所說，我們希望他們的水晶球不完全正確，但我們會按照他們告訴我們的去做。

Okay. Good. We appreciate that color there, Rodger. Last -- next question, I should say, and then we'll have one other, and we'll turn it over. In metal, can you give us what you believe the year-on-year volume impact to EBIT or EBITDA will be versus 2022. We have the metal overlap, as you called it, over $100 million between 1Q and 2Q. What is the year-on-year impact from volume for metal and consumer EBIT for '23 versus '22?

好的。好的。我們很欣賞那裡的顏色，羅傑。我應該說最後一個——下一個問題，然後我們再討論一個問題，然後我們再把它翻過來。在金屬方面，您能否告訴我們您認為 2022 年對 EBIT 或 EBITDA 的同比銷量影響是多少。正如您所說，我們在第一季度和第二季度之間有超過 1 億美元的金屬重疊。 23 年與 22 年金屬銷量和消費者息稅前利潤的同比影響是什麼？

George, it will be between $40 million and $60 million this year, and that's volume and the associated productivity with it.

喬治，今年的金額將在 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元之間，這是數量和與之相關的生產力。

Okay. And then my last question is when you sit back and you look at your volumes and that impact relative to what's coming out of CMI, what gives you comfort that you are -- and I haven't sort of mapped this so perhaps this would be exactly the same. But what gives you comfort that you are not losing share or said differently, could you give us on a year-to-date basis, what your volume was by key end market in metal this year versus last year.

好的。然後我的最後一個問題是，當你坐下來看看你的交易量以及相對於 CMI 的影響時，是什麼讓你感到安慰——我還沒有對此進行映射，所以也許這會是一模一樣。但是，讓您感到放心的是，您沒有失去市場份額，或者換句話說，您能否向我們提供今年迄今為止的數據，與去年相比，您今年在金屬主要終端市場的銷量是多少。

Yes, I'll have that in front of me, George. Well, food down about 10%, aerosols around 14%. But again, when you dig into that, it relates to really a couple of customers in both segments of the business and there are stories behind one being more inventory carryover and the other one related to price versus volume decisions that customers are making.

是的，喬治，我會把它放在我面前。嗯，食物下降了約 10%，氣溶膠下降了約 14%。但同樣，當你深入研究這一點時，它確實與兩個業務領域的幾個客戶有關，其中一個是更多的庫存結轉，另一個是與客戶做出的價格與數量決策相關的故事。

Well, again, I'm repeating myself, but that was a second quarter phenomenon that we see pulling out of as we entered the third quarter, more normalized volumes. And I've taken time, so if your question about share, we have not lost any share of that I'm aware of at all. Certainly, nothing material and the market reception has been extremely positive as Sonoco has under been supposed since last year. So we look at this as just a one-off, if you will, for the quarter and that we're going to be pulling ourselves out of it, our customers are telling us, that's exactly what the case is. And we're, again, excited about the market reception that we've received thus far.

好吧，我再次重複一遍，但這是第二季度的現象，當我們進入第三季度時，我們看到了這種現象，銷量更加正常化。我花了時間，所以如果你問的是關於份額的問題，我們並沒有失去任何我所知道的份額。當然，沒有什麼實質性的進展，而且市場反響非常積極，正如 Sonoco 自去年以來所預期的那樣。因此，我們認為這只是本季度的一次性事件，我們將擺脫這種情況，我們的客戶告訴我們，情況正是如此。我們再次對迄今為止所收到的市場反應感到興奮。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Lisa Weeks for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回麗莎·威克斯，讓其作結束語。

Thank you for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around after the call or we can follow up with a scheduled call later. We look forward to seeing you on the road through the late summer and fall until we share our third quarter results in early November. Thank you to everyone, and have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，我們將在通話後回复您，或者我們可以稍後安排電話進行跟進。我們期待在整個夏末和秋季在路上見到您，直到我們在 11 月初分享我們的第三季度業績。謝謝大家，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。