Sonoco Products Co (SON) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Sonoco's Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lisa Weeks, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Sonoco 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁麗莎·威克斯 (Lisa Weeks)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for Sonoco's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Joining me this morning are Howard Coker, President and CEO; Rob Dillard, Chief Financial Officer; and Rodger Fuller, Chief Operating Officer.

感謝營運商，感謝大家今天加入我們參加 Sonoco 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起來的是總裁兼執行長霍華德‧科克 (Howard Coker)；羅布·迪拉德，財務長；羅傑‧富勒，營運長。

Last evening, we issued a news release highlighting our financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year, and we prepared a presentation that we will reference during this call. The press release and presentation are available online under the Investor Relations section of our website.

昨晚，我們發布了一份新聞稿，重點介紹了我們第四季度和全年的財務業績，並準備了一份演示文稿，供我們在本次電話會議期間參考。新聞稿和簡報可在我們網站的投資者關係部分線上取得。

As a reminder, during today's call, we will discuss a number of forward-looking statements based on current expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Therefore, actual results may differ materially. Please take a moment to review the forward-looking statements on Page 2 of the presentation.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論一些基於當前預期、估計和預測的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並受到某些風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請花點時間查看簡報第 2 頁的前瞻性聲明。

Additionally, today's presentation includes the use of non-GAAP financial measures which management believes provides useful information to investors about the company's financial condition and results of operations. Further information about the company's use of non-GAAP financial measures, including definitions as well as reconciliations to GAAP measures is available under the Investor Relations section of our website.

此外，今天的演示還包括使用非公認會計準則財務指標，管理層認為這些指標為投資者提供了有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用資訊。有關公司使用非公認會計準則財務衡量標準的更多信息，包括定義以及與公認會計準則衡量標準的調節，請訪問我們網站的投資者關係部分。

For today's call, we will have prepared remarks regarding our results for the quarter and 2023 and an outlook for the first quarter and full year '24 followed by a Q&A session. If you'll turn to Slide 4 in our presentation, I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Howard Coker.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將準備有關本季和 2023 年業績的評論，以及對 24 年第一季和全年的展望，然後進行問答環節。如果您在我們的簡報中翻看幻燈片 4，我現在會將電話轉給我們的執行長 Howard Coker。

Thank you, Lisa, and thanks to all of you for joining our call this morning to review our 2023 results and 2024 outlook.

謝謝麗莎，也謝謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議，回顧我們 2023 年的表現和 2024 年的展望。

In 2023, we continue to make progress on strategic initiatives and delivered solid results in what was a pretty difficult year from a volume perspective. Despite these lower volumes, we delivered strong EBITDA margins of 15.7%, which is somewhat similar to last year. Our strong margins were the result of record performances in our consumer rigid paper cans and flexibles businesses. On the industrial side, despite volume level similar to 2008, our team delivered record profit margins through diligent cost management throughout the paper ecosystem.

2023年，我們在策略性舉措上繼續取得進展，並在從數量角度來看是相當困難的一年中取得了紮實的成果。儘管銷量較低，我們仍實現了 15.7% 的強勁 EBITDA 利潤率，與去年有些相似。我們強勁的利潤率得益於消費硬紙罐和軟紙罐業務創紀錄的業績。在工業方面，儘管產量水準與 2008 年相似，但我們的團隊透過整個造紙生態系統的嚴格成本管理實現了創紀錄的利潤率。

Our adjusted earnings of $5.26 were within our guidance range for the year. And with intentional focus on working capital, we generated record operating cash flow of $883 million and free cash flow of $600 million for the year. We also returned capital to shareholders and increased our annual dividend for the 40th straight year. We completed acquisitions and divestitures according to plans, and our teams did not skip a beat on executing initiatives to further strengthen our foundation.

我們的調整後收益為 5.26 美元，在我們今年的指導範圍內。透過對營運資本的刻意關注，我們今年創造了創紀錄的 8.83 億美元營運現金流和 6 億美元自由現金流。我們也向股東返還資本，並連續 40 年增加年度股利。我們按照計劃完成了收購和剝離，我們的團隊也毫不猶豫地執行舉措，以進一步鞏固我們的基礎。

I want to close 2023 by thanking this incredible team of Sonoco for the resiliency and dedication throughout the year. Certainly, the global economic and external factors did not make this an easy year at all. But we did not stand still, and we delivered the second best annual financial performance in the company's 125-year history. I'm grateful to work alongside these great people of Sonoco as well as our customers and supplier partners and we continue to look to the future with optimism.

在 2023 年結束之際，我想感謝 Sonoco 這個令人難以置信的團隊全年的韌性和奉獻精神。當然，全球經濟和外部因素讓今年過得併不輕鬆。但我們並沒有停滯不前，我們實現了公司 125 年歷史上第二好的年度財務表現。我很高興能與 Sonoco 的這些優秀員工以及我們的客戶和供應商合作夥伴一起工作，我們將繼續樂觀地展望未來。

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Rob to cover our financial results and outlook. Rob?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 Rob，介紹我們的財務表現和前景。搶？

Thanks, Howard. I'm pleased to present the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results starting on Page 6 of this presentation. Please note that all results are on an adjusted basis and all growth metrics are on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise stated. The GAAP to non-GAAP EPS reconciliation is in the appendix of this presentation as well as in the press release.

謝謝，霍華德。我很高興從本簡報第 6 頁開始介紹 2023 年第四季和全年的財務表現。請注意，除非另有說明，所有結果均經過調整，所有成長指標均以同比計算。 GAAP 與非 GAAP EPS 調整表位於本簡報的附錄以及新聞稿中。

As Howard said, 2023 was a record year for Sonoco. In 2023, we achieved the second best financial results in the company's 125-year history in key metrics such as net sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. By many measures, this was our best year ever. We achieved record operating cash flow, record free cash flow, record productivity, and we invested a record amount to drive future growth and profitability. We've built a foundation for continued strong financial performance, building on our enduring operating model, strong market positions, investment-grade balance sheet and our differentiated dividend. We're excited about the future and feel good that 2023 was a year to solidify our improvement since 2021.

正如霍華德所說，2023 年對索諾科來說是創紀錄的一年。 2023 年，我們在淨銷售額、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股盈餘等關鍵指標上取得了公司 125 年歷史上第二好的財務表現。從許多方面來看，這是我們有史以來最好的一年。我們實現了創紀錄的營運現金流、創紀錄的自由現金流、創紀錄的生產力，並且我們投資了創紀錄的金額來推動未來的成長和獲利能力。憑藉我們持久的營運模式、強大的市場地位、投資等級資產負債表和差異化股息，我們為持續強勁的財務表現奠定了基礎。我們對未來感到興奮，並感覺良好，因為 2023 年是我們自 2021 年以來鞏固進步的一年。

Full year 2023 net sales decreased to $6.78 billion due to the volumes that comes from destocking and consumer and an elongated cycle in industrial. While these factors impacted year-over-year results, we grew net sales at a 10% compounded annual growth rate since 2021 due to strategic pricing, new product wins and acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA grew $297 million from $770 million in 2021 to $1.067 billion in 2023. Over $150 million of this increase was organic improvement due to strategic pricing and productivity. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.7% in 2023, a 190 basis point increase from 2021. We achieved strong profitability due to price cost in 2022 and retain this profitability in 2023 due to record productivity of $109 million. We are operating with agility and continue to match cost controls with productivity investments.

由於去庫存和消費以及工業週期延長，2023 年全年淨銷售額下降至 67.8 億美元。儘管這些因素影響了同比業績，但由於策略定價、新產品贏得和收購，自 2021 年以來，我們的淨銷售額以 10% 的複合年增長率成長。調整後 EBITDA 成長了 2.97 億美元，從 2021 年的 7.7 億美元成長到 2023 年的 10.67 億美元。其中超過 1.5 億美元的成長是由於策略定價和生產力帶來的有機改進。 2023 年調整後EBITDA 利潤率為15.7%，較2021 年增長190 個基點。由於價格成本，我們在2022 年實現了強勁的盈利能力，並由於創紀錄的1.09 億美元的生產力，在2023 年保持了這項盈利能力。我們正在靈活地運營，並繼續將成本控制與生產力投資相匹配。

2023 GAAP EPS was $4.80, and adjusted EPS was $5.26 which was within our guidance range of $5.25 to $5.40.

2023 年 GAAP 每股收益為 4.80 美元，調整後每股收益為 5.26 美元，在我們 5.25 美元至 5.40 美元的指導範圍內。

On Page 7, we have our results for Q4 2023. Net sales decreased 2% and to $1.64 billion. Volumes were lower 3.4% due to low single-digit volume declines in both consumer and industrial, and price was negative 2.3% due to negative index-based pricing. Adjusted operating profit decreased to $167 million, adjusted EBITDA decreased to $236 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, a 20 basis point decrease from 2022. Q4 was an incredibly strong quarter operationally. We managed variable demand and generated record productivity of $49 million. This translated into a 180 basis point increase in gross profit margin.

第 7 頁顯示了 2023 年第四季的業績。淨銷售額下降 2%，降至 16.4 億美元。由於消費者和工業領域的銷售量均出現低個位數下降，銷售量下降了 3.4%；由於基於指數的定價為負，價格下降了 2.3%。調整後營業利潤下降至 1.67 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 下降至 2.36 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.4%，較 2022 年下降 20 個基點。第四季的營運表現異常強勁。我們管理了可變需求並創造了創紀錄的 4900 萬美元生產力。這意味著毛利率增加了 180 個基點。

These operating profit results were offset by SG&A items that we consider infrequent in their magnitude, including higher employee expenses, health care and accounts receivable reserves. GAAP EPS was $0.82 and adjusted EPS was $1.02, within our guidance range of $1.01 to $1.16. Tax was a $0.06 drag on the quarter as the tax rate increased to 25.7% due to actions to repatriate cash. It's notable that without the specific higher SG&A items, and tax items, we would have achieved at least the midpoint of guidance.

這些營業利潤結果被SG&A項目所抵消，我們認為這些項目的規模並不常見，包括較高的員工費用、醫療保健和應收帳款準備金。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.82 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.02 美元，介於我們 1.01 美元至 1.16 美元的指導範圍內。由於現金匯回，稅率上升至 25.7%，稅收對該季度造成 0.06 美元的拖累。值得注意的是，如果沒有特定的較高 SG&A 項目和稅收項目，我們至少會達到指導的中點。

Page 8 has our sales and operating profit bridges for the quarter. Net sales declined to $1.64 billion due to negative volume mix and negative price Volume mix was negative $20 million in the quarter as consumer continues to be impacted by inflationary pricing at retail and industrial continues to reach a cyclical low. Price was negative $39 million. We continue to achieve strong results from our strategic pricing program. Negative price was a result of deflation in index-based prices in resin, metal and paper-based businesses.

第 8 頁顯示了我們本季的銷售和營業利潤橋樑。由於銷售和價格為負，淨銷售額下降至 16.4 億美元 由於消費者繼續受到零售和工業通膨定價的影響，本季銷售組合為負 2,000 萬美元。價格為負3900萬美元。我們的策略定價計劃持續取得強勁成果。負價格是樹脂、金屬和紙張業務指數價格通貨緊縮的結果。

Next, on this page, we have the adjusted operating profit bridge. Adjusted operating profit was driven by negative volume mix and negative price cost with strong productivity benefiting results. Volume mix was negative $10 million, price/cost was negative $14 million as positive price cost in Consumer and all other was offset by negative price cost in industrial. Productivity was positive $49 million as we achieved positive manufacturing productivity due to our lean programs and positive fixed cost productivity due to continued efforts to reduce our plant footprint and optimize supply chains. Other was negative $42 million due to employee expenses, health care and accounts receivable reserves. These expenses are not expected to repeat in this magnitude.

接下來，在此頁面上，我們有調整後的營業利潤橋樑。調整後的營業利潤是由負銷售組合和負價格成本以及強勁的生產力效益所推動的。銷售組合為負 1,000 萬美元，價格/成本為負 1,400 萬美元，因為消費品和所有其他產品的正價格成本被工業產品的負價格成本所抵銷。生產力為正值 4,900 萬美元，因為我們透過精益計畫實現了正的製造生產力，並且由於不斷努力減少工廠佔地面積和優化供應鏈而實現了正的固定成本生產力。其他因員工費用、醫療保健和應收帳款準備金而出現負 4,200 萬美元。預計這些費用不會再出現如此規模的情況。

Page 9 has our segment results for the quarter. Consumer sales decreased 3% to $856 million. Consumer volumes decreased low single digits due to customer inventory management and the impact of inflationary pricing. Many consumer customers are beginning to return to historical pricing practices, including discounting. However, volumes have been slow to return to typical patterns. Rigid Paper Container sales declined low single digits due to mid-single-digit volume declines offsetting positive price. Flexible sales were flat as new customer gains offset low legacy customer volumes Metal Packaging sales decreased mid-single digits due to low single-digit volume declines and negative index-based price actions. Demand from our core customers in metal packaging has strengthened, but overall demand declined due to anticipated template-based price reductions in 2024.

第 9 頁列出了我們本季的部門業績。消費者銷售額下降 3%，至 8.56 億美元。由於客戶庫存管理和通貨膨脹定價的影響，消費者數量下降了低個位數。許多消費者開始恢復歷史定價做法，包括折扣。然而，成交量恢復到典型模式的速度緩慢。由於中等個位數的銷量下降抵消了積極的價格，硬紙容器銷售額下降了低個位數。靈活銷售持平，因為新客戶的成長抵消了傳統客戶數量的減少金屬包裝銷售額由於個位數的低個位數下降和基於指數的價格走勢的負面影響而下降了中個位數。我們的核心客戶對金屬包裝的需求有所增強，但由於預計 2024 年基於模板的價格下降，整體需求有所下降。

Consumer operating profit decreased to $83 million as $23 million of productivity and $17 million of price cost was offset by volume mix and SG&A, a meaningful component of which we do not expect to repeat in this magnitude. Consumer operating profit margin was flat at 9.7%. Industrial sales decreased less than 1% to $593 million. Industrial volumes decreased low single digits due to lower demand in most key markets and geographies. Industrial prices decreased mid-single digits due to index-based pricing actions. We continue to achieve strategic pricing, but were impacted by declining paper indices and increasing OCC.

消費者營業利潤下降至 8300 萬美元，因為 2300 萬美元的生產力和 1700 萬美元的價格成本被產量組合和 SG&A 所抵消，我們預計其中一個有意義的組成部分不會以如此大的規模重複。消費者營業利益率持平，為 9.7%。工業銷售額下降不到 1%，至 5.93 億美元。由於大多數主要市場和地區的需求下降，工業產量下降了低個位數。由於基於指數的定價行動，工業價格下降了中個位數。我們繼續實現策略定價，但受到紙張指數下降和 OCC 增加的影響。

OCC increased to $92 per ton from $38 per ton in 2022. Industrial operating profit decreased to $62 million due to $36 million of negative price cost offsetting $20 million of productivity. Industrial operating profit margin remained at a historically strong 10.4%. We're protecting margins with strategic pricing and with cost actions to reduce fixed costs. The business is well positioned to benefit from a return to normalized volumes. All other sales decreased 7% to $187 million due to broad volume declines, while other operating profit increased to $22 million due to strong productivity and positive price cost.

到 2022 年，OCC 從每噸 38 美元增加到每噸 92 美元。由於 3,600 萬美元的負價格成本抵消了 2,000 萬美元的生產力，工業營業利潤下降到 6,200 萬美元。工業營業利益率維持在歷史最高水準10.4%。我們透過策略定價和降低固定成本的成本行動來保護利潤。該業務處於有利位置，可以從恢復正常銷售中受益。由於銷量大幅下降，所有其他銷售額下降 7%，至 1.87 億美元，而由於生產力強勁和積極的價格成本，其他營業利潤增加至 2,200 萬美元。

Moving to Page 10. Our capital allocation framework aligns with our business strategy to drive value creation through earnings growth and improved margins. In the fourth quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $267 million. We invested $108 million of this cash and capital expenditures to fund our growth initiatives and improve margins. Results from these investments are translating into improved productivity and growth with new customers and new products. Further, we remain focused on increasing the dividend, which at present is $0.51 per share on a quarterly basis or a 3.5% annualized yield based on our current share price.

轉到第 10 頁。我們的資本配置架構與我們的業務策略一致，透過獲利成長和提高利潤來推動價值創造。第四季度，我們產生了 2.67 億美元的營運現金流。我們投入了 1.08 億美元的現金和資本支出，為我們的成長計畫提供資金並提高利潤率。這些投資的成果正在轉化為生產力的提高以及新客戶和新產品的成長。此外，我們仍然專注於增加股息，目前每季股息為 0.51 美元，根據我們目前的股價，年化報酬率為 3.5%。

Next, we paid off $172 million of debt in the quarter, and reduced our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 2.8x. We'll continue to be disciplined and improve our liquidity and access to capital. This is key to our strategy as we continue to have a proactive M&A strategy focused on executing the right deals based on strategic fit, scalability, financial profile and cultural fit. We're being disciplined in a disrupted M&A market, and we'll do the right acquisitions and divestitures at the right time for us.

接下來，我們在本季償還了 1.72 億美元的債務，並將淨債務減少至調整後 EBITDA 至 2.8 倍。我們將繼續遵守紀律，改善我們的流動性和獲得資本的機會。這是我們策略的關鍵，因為我們繼續採取積極主動的併購策略，專注於根據策略契合度、可擴展性、財務狀況和文化契合度執行正確的交易。我們在混亂的併購市場中受到紀律約束，我們將在正確的時間進行正確的收購和剝離。

Page 11 has our guidance for Q1 and full year 2024. Guidance for 2024 adjusted EPS is $5.10 to $5.40. This guidance is based on low single-digit volume growth Consumer volumes are expected to grow low single digits, while industrial volumes are expected to experience only limited recovery. Price cost is expected to be meaningfully negative due to contractual resets in consumer and the impact of timing and pricing live on industrial. Another meaningful input to guidance is a $32 million increase in depreciation. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA in 2024 and are guiding to a range of $1.05 billion to $1.1 billion.

第 11 頁提供了我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的指導。2024 年調整後每股收益的指引為 5.10 美元至 5.40 美元。該指引基於低個位數的銷售成長。消費者銷售量預計將成長低個位數，而工業銷售量預計將僅經歷有限的復甦。由於消費者的合約重置以及時間安排和定價對工業的影響，預計價格成本將顯著為負。對指導的另一個有意義的投入是折舊增加 3200 萬美元。我們預計 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 將會成長，指引範圍為 10.5 億美元至 11 億美元。

Operating cash flow guidance is $650 million to $750 million. Working capital is expected to be a $100 million to $150 million use of funds as we invest in inventory and receivables to assess supply chains and enable volume growth. Guidance for our capital expenditures is $350 million. We have increased the proportion of capital expenditures focused on long-term growth and profitability projects. This investment is expected to drive record productivity in 2024 and beyond. Guidance for Q1 2024 adjusted EPS was $1.05 to $1.15. We're expecting modestly negative volume in consumer as our customers remain cautious. Consumer price cost is expected to be negative due to contract pricing resets. Industrial volumes are not expected to improve in Q1. Industrial price trends are improving, but price cost is expected to be meaningfully negative on a year-over-year basis due to last year's low OCC comparative and last year's higher tan bending chip comparative. Now Roger will further discuss the outlook for the business.

營運現金流指引為 6.5 億至 7.5 億美元。我們投資於庫存和應收帳款以評估供應鏈並實現銷售成長，預計營運資金將達到 1 億至 1.5 億美元。我們的資本支出指引為 3.5 億美元。我們增加了專注於長期成長和獲利項目的資本支出比例。這項投資預計將在 2024 年及以後推動創紀錄的生產力。 2024 年第一季調整後每股盈餘指引為 1.05 美元至 1.15 美元。由於我們的客戶保持謹慎態度，我們預期消費量將出現小幅負成長。由於合約定價重置，預計消費者價格成本將為負值。預計第一季工業產量不會改善。工業價格趨勢正在改善，但由於去年的 OCC 比較值較低和去年的棕褐色彎曲晶片比較值較高，預計價格成本將比去年同期顯著下降。現在羅傑將進一步討論業務前景。

Thanks, Rob. If you please turn to Slide 12 for our view of segment performance drivers in 2024. Let me start with our first quarter outlook.

謝謝，羅布。請參閱投影片 12，了解我們對 2024 年細分市場業績驅動因素的看法。讓我從我們第一季的展望開始。

In the Consumer segment, we expect volume to be up sequentially over the fourth quarter, but basically flat year-over-year from continued lower consumer spending due to retail price inflation. In rigid paper containers, we see volumes slightly down in North America versus a strong start last year, flat in Europe and some nice year-over-year sales growth in the rest of the world from new product launches and our expanded capacity in South America and Asia.

在消費者領域，我們預計第四季銷售將環比成長，但由於零售價格通膨導致消費者支出持續下降，比去年同期基本持平。在硬紙容器方面，我們看到北美的銷量與去年的強勁開局相比略有下降，歐洲持平，而由於新產品的推出和我們在南美產能的擴大，世界其他地區的銷量同比出現了一些不錯的成長和亞洲。

Organic flexible volumes are projected to be flat to down slightly due to continued softness in our base soft baked goods and confection business but aided in the first quarter from the benefit of the Inapel acquisition in Brazil. In our Metalpack business, we did see a recovery of our steel aerosol business in the fourth quarter, offset by some softness in food. In the first quarter of '23, we expect low- to mid-single-digit increases in both food and aerosol bottle cans.

由於我們的基本軟烘焙食品和糖果業務持續疲軟，有機軟包裝銷售量預計持平或略有下降，但第一季得益於巴西 Inapel 收購的好處。在我們的 Metalpack 業務中，我們確實看到第四季度鋼氣霧劑業務有所復甦，但被食品的疲軟所抵消。 23 年第一季度，我們預計食品和氣霧瓶罐的銷售量將出現低至中個位數的成長。

In the Industrial segment, volumes are up sequentially from last quarter, but down low single digits year-over-year with weakness primarily in Europe and Asia, as many of our end markets are tied to consumer staple and durable spending and inflationary factors that have slowed spending. We do expect higher paper mill utilization in the first quarter in our global paper system driven primarily in North America.

在工業領域，銷量較上季度連續增長，但同比下降低個位數，主要在歐洲和亞洲疲軟，因為我們的許多終端市場與消費品和耐用支出以及通貨膨脹因素有關，這些因素導致了工業部門的增長。支出放緩。我們確實預計，在主要由北美驅動的全球造紙系統中，第一季造紙廠利用率將會更高。

During the first quarter, there will be an outsized impact from negative price cost as input costs continue to rise and the timing of pricing updates lag. We expect the impact of negative price cost to improve over Q1 levels as we move throughout the year. Productivity remains strong as our team is effectively managing costs throughout our renewal and converting systems. In the All Other segment, volumes continue to remain soft with price cost offsetting some impact of the lower volumes.

第一季度，由於投入成本持續上升且定價更新時間落後，負價格成本將產生巨大影響。我們預計，隨著全年的發展，負價格成本的影響將比第一季的水準有所改善。由於我們的團隊在整個更新和轉換系統中有效管理成本，因此生產力保持強勁。在所有其他領域，銷售量持續保持疲軟，價格成本抵消了銷售下降的一些影響。

Now turning to the full year 2024 guidance. We expect consumer volumes to be up low single digits and productivity remains strong. We're anticipating relatively stable material pricing and supply chain performance but do expect consumer price cost for the year to be negative from contractual pricing resets, somewhat offset by productivity. In industrial, we're not projecting volume recovery in the first half of the year. We also expect price cost to remain negative from index-based pricing and higher input costs, which will be weighted to the first half of the year. As you know, we've announced price increases in North America on both our URB paper and converted products effective February 1, and these increases are progressing well. The team continues to do an excellent job of expense management and we expect productivity and manufacturing efficiencies will offset negative volume impacts.

現在轉向 2024 年全年指導。我們預計消費者數量將成長低個位數，而生產力仍然強勁。我們預期材料價格和供應鍊錶現將相對穩定，但預計今年的消費者價格成本將因合約定價重置而出現負值，並在一定程度上被生產力所抵消。在工業領域，我們預計今年上半年銷售不會恢復。我們還預計，由於基於指數的定價和較高的投入成本，價格成本仍將保持負值，這將被加權到今年上半年。如您所知，我們已宣布自 2 月 1 日起在北美提高 URB 紙張和轉換產品的價格，並且這些漲價進展順利。團隊繼續在費用管理方面表現出色，我們預計生產力和製造效率將抵消銷售的負面影響。

And lastly, in all other, we anticipate fairly stable demand across these businesses and good productivity to continue throughout the year. So overall, we remain, I believe, appropriately conservative on volume recovery across the segments with good productivity and cost control in place until we see volume recover. With that, back to you, Howard.

最後，在所有其他方面，我們預計這些業務的需求相當穩定，並且全年將持續良好的生產力。因此，總體而言，我認為，在我們看到銷售恢復之前，我們對各細分市場的銷售恢復保持適當保守，並保持良好的生產力和成本控制。說到這裡，回到你身上，霍華德。

Great. Thanks, Roger. As I stated in my opening remarks, we are not standing still as we progress a robust set of plans and initiatives across the enterprise. And I thought I'd just share a few of those with you.

偉大的。謝謝，羅傑。正如我在開場白中所說，我們在整個企業內推進一套強有力的計劃和舉措時並沒有停滯不前。我想我只想與你們分享其中的一些。

First, on the divestiture and closure front, we continue to execute our portfolio transition and footprint optimization activities. Last week, we announced the closure of our Sumner Washington URB paper mill. This was the oldest mill in Sonoco's North American network, and the cost to recapitalize was just simply not feasible. We're moving tons to lower-cost mills in the network. We've owned Sumner for over 40 years and extremely grateful for the support of this team through these years. We also announced the expected sale of our Protective Solutions business from our all other category or segment, which should close in the first half of 2024. This has been a great business for Sonoco with great leadership team. We know their knowledge and skills will serve them well into the future. As we continue our portfolio resolution, we remain laser focused on simplification and the alignment and fit to what businesses remain in our core.

首先，在剝離和關閉方面，我們繼續執行我們的投資組合轉型和足跡優化活動。上週，我們宣布關閉 Sumner Washington URB 造紙廠。這是 Sonoco 北美網路中最古老的工廠，資本重組的成本根本不可行。我們正在將大量貨物轉移到網路中成本較低的工廠。我們擁有 Sumner 超過 40 年，非常感謝這個團隊這些年來的支持。我們也宣布預計出售所有其他類別或細分市場的防護解決方案業務，該交易應於 2024 年上半年完成。對於擁有優秀領導團隊的 Sonoco 來說，這是一項偉大的業務。我們知道他們的知識和技能將為他們的未來服務。當我們繼續解決我們的投資組合問題時，我們仍然專注於簡化以及與我們核心業務的一致性和契合度。

Secondly, we're pleased to announce that we were recognized by Kellanova for designing, manufacturing and commercializing a paper bottom end for our rigid paper cans with Pringles to achieve sustainable and recyclable initiatives in Europe. This was a multiyear and a true partnership effort. We're pleased with the acceptance of our innovative package design in the marketplace, and we look forward to sharing more about this next week at our Investor Day.

其次，我們很高興地宣布，我們因為我們的品客薯片硬紙罐設計、製造和商業化紙質底端而獲得了 Kellanova 的認可，以在歐洲實現可持續和可回收的舉措。這是一項多年的、真正的合作努力。我們很高興我們的創新包裝設計在市場上被接受，我們期待在下週的投資者日分享更多相關資訊。

In December, we're also pleased to announce the acquisition of Inapel, one of the leading flexible packaging company space in Brazil. This is a strategic move to expand capacity for growing demand that we are feeling in Brazil where Sonoco is now the #2 in this market. We welcome the Inapel team and know that our aligned culture, values and technical capabilities make this a winning combination.

12 月，我們也很高興地宣布收購 Inapel，這是巴西領先的軟包裝公司之一。這是一項策略性舉措，旨在擴大產能以滿足巴西不斷增長的需求，而索諾科目前在巴西市場排名第二。我們歡迎 Inapel 團隊，並知道我們一致的文化、價值觀和技術能力使之成為一個成功的組合。

We've also taken steps this year to further align our flexible and thermoforming businesses into one larger scaled platform. We will be providing more details on this next step in our portfolio next week.

今年我們也採取措施，進一步將我們的靈活和熱成型業務整合為一個更大的平台。我們將在下週提供有關我們投資組合下一步的更多細節。

In summary, I'd just like to leave you that Sonoco continued steady performance across our businesses. We wish volumes were better, but we are well positioned and ready to take advantage of incremental demand upticks across the portfolio.

總而言之，我想告訴您，Sonoco 在我們的業務中繼續保持穩定的表現。我們希望銷售量更好，但我們已做好充分準備，準備好利用整個投資組合的增量需求上升。

Now if you'll turn to Slide 15, I will wrap things up by saying we are looking forward to our Investor Day 1 week from today in New York in February -- what is the date of the Investor Day? February 22, the next week. During this meeting, we will provide updates on our transformation, operations or business unit plans and share thoughts on our longer-term financial outlook. We look forward to hosting you live or virtually next week. So at this time, I'm more than happy -- we are more than happy to answer any questions that you may have. I'll turn it back over to the operator.

現在，如果您翻到投影片 15，我將在總結時說，我們期待著從今天起 2 月在紐約舉行的投資者日第一周——投資者日的日期是哪一天？ 2月22日，下週。在這次會議期間，我們將提供有關我們的轉型、營運或業務部門計劃的最新信息，並分享對我們長期財務前景的想法。我們期待下週現場或虛擬接待您。所以此時，我非常高興 - 我們非常樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。我會把它轉回給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的喬治‧斯塔福斯（George Staphos）。

I'll ask three questions. First question related to guidance. Can you talk through what is baked in for price/cost for the year, recognizing there are no guarantees in life. And how much of the URB and converted product increases in industrial are baked into that guidance? Relatedly, what is the effect of the divestiture of Protective Solutions within All Other relative to your guidance? And then last for me, Howard, one -- I know you're going to talk more about it next week, but why the integration of flexibles with thermoforming, recognizing they're plastic-based they are somewhat different business processes. And what should we have baked in for productivity from that and broadly for the year?

我會問三個問題。第一個問題與指導有關。您能否談談今年的價格/成本調整，因為您認識到生活中沒有任何保證。工業中的 URB 和轉換產品成長有多少被納入該指引？與此相關的是，相對於您的指導，剝離所有其他業務中的保護性解決方案有何影響？最後對我來說，霍華德，我知道你下週會更多地談論它，但為什麼柔性材料與熱成型的集成，認識到它們是基於塑料的，它們是有些不同的業務流程。我們應該從這一年中以及整體上提高生產力方面做哪些準備？

Right. Thanks, George. I'll turn over the more financial related to Rob. Yes, we'll talk in more detail next week about the combination. And I think you'll see the rationale and why we view this as an obvious combine of the two -- you just at a very high level, I can just say that synergistically, it makes a lot of sense. And then if you look at the markets that we serve and the customers we share, and there's more beyond that. So I'm going to leave that where it is, and we'll get into that with next week. Rob, do you want to talk about price cost and...

正確的。謝謝，喬治。我會交出更多與羅布有關的財務資訊。是的，我們將在下週更詳細地討論該組合。我想你會明白其中的原理，以及為什麼我們認為這是兩者的明顯結合——你處於非常高的水平，我可以說，協同作用，它很有意義。如果你看看我們服務的市場和我們共享的客戶，你會發現除此之外還有更多。所以我將把它留在原處，我們將在下週討論這個問題。羅布，你想談談價格和成本嗎？

Yes, George. That's a good question because price cost is going to be a meaningful driver for profitability -- a meaningful factor for profitability in 2024. I'd say in Q1, we're anticipating that number to be between $0.50 and $0.55 of drag. We've said previously that Industrial was going to have $35 million of price cost in Q1, and we're expecting to see that. To your point on URB and price recovery there, we have continued to see OCC increase, tan bending chip is kind of held constant we're feeling really good about how that price is translating through the market, but that's something that actually takes a fair amount of time to really translate through to the P&L. So there's a bit of a drag there. Overall, we do think that industrial price cost will continue to be negative going into the second quarter, and we're hopeful for some opportunity in the second half of the year.

是的，喬治。這是一個很好的問題，因為價格成本將成為盈利能力的一個有意義的驅動因素——一個對2024 年盈利能力有意義的因素。我想說，在第一季度，我們預計這個數字將在0.50 美元到0.55 美元之間。我們之前曾說過，工業第一季的價格成本將達到 3500 萬美元，我們預計會看到這一點。就您對 URB 和價格復甦的觀點而言，我們繼續看到 OCC 增加，棕褐色彎曲晶片保持不變，我們對價格在市場中的轉化情況感覺非常好，但這實際上需要公平的對待真正轉化為損益表的時間。所以那裡有一點拖累。整體而言，我們確實認為進入第二季工業價格成本將繼續為負，我們希望下半年能出現一些機會。

Okay. And then (inaudible) just Protexic?

好的。然後（聽不清楚）只是 Protexic？

Yes. So Protexic, we haven't closed the deal. We're expecting to close. We have a great counterparty there. We feel really good about that transaction on a gross basis, that divestiture would be $0.10 dilutive to EPS on a full year basis. So we are expecting to close that by the end of Q1 and have some visibility to that, and it's not in the $525 million of guidance.

是的。所以 Protexic，我們還沒完成交易。我們預計會關閉。我們在那裡有一個很棒的交易對手。我們對這筆交易的整體感覺非常好，該剝離將稀釋全年每股收益 0.10 美元。因此，我們預計在第一季末之前完成該項目，並對此有一定的了解，但這並不在 5.25 億美元的指導中。

Okay. And the productivity for the year?

好的。那一年的生產力呢？

Productivity of the year. We had a great year this year. Obviously, we continue to invest behind that we see we've got a better path forward this year than we did last year, I would say. So we're expecting to have another record year.

年度生產力。今年我們度過了美好的一年。顯然，我們繼續進行投資，我們看到今年的前進道路比去年更好，我想說。因此，我們預計今年將再創新高。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

You're expecting consumer volume growth in, I think, the mid-single-digit to high single-digit range quarter-over-quarter in 1Q. And I'm just wondering, is it possible to maybe parse that out between -- and does that just reflect sort of typical seasonality? Or is there some end market demand improvement or deterioration or any destocking or anything -- just wondering if you can kind of parse that out between those drivers.

我認為，您預計第一季的消費者數量將較上季成長將在中個位數到高個位數範圍內。我只是想知道，是否有可能在兩者之間解析這一點——這是否反映了某種典型的季節性？或者終端市場需求是否有所改善或惡化，或者是否有任何去庫存或其他任何事情——只是想知道您是否可以在這些驅動因素之間解析出這一點。

No, Anthony, it's Roger. Consumer for the first quarter is basically flat year-over-year. So you've got slightly down in rigid paper containers versus a strong start last year in North America, basically flat to slightly negative flexibles. And again, as our base business, cookies confectionery being offset by some of the Brazil acquisition. Metal cans is actually projected to be up low to mid-single digits, and we started in that way. And in plastics up slightly.

不，安東尼，是羅傑。第一季消費者較去年同期基本持平。因此，與去年北美的強勁開局相比，硬紙容器的銷量略有下降，軟紙容器的銷量基本上持平甚至略有負值。再次，作為我們的基礎業務，餅乾糖果被巴西的一些收購所抵消。金屬罐實際上預計將上升到低至中個位數，我們就是這樣開始的。塑膠略有上升。

So you put it all together, Anthony, is basically a flat volume for the first quarter. For the year, we do see that low single-digit growth for the year. And that's just recovery in some of our base business with some share that we've gained in flexibles, some new products and flexibles and a good result. We're very hopeful on this combination between flexibles and thermal forming. So first quarter flat mid-single digit -- mid- to low single digits for the year with some recovery in our base business.

所以，安東尼，把所有這些放在一起，第一季的銷售量基本上持平。今年，我們確實看到了較低的個位數成長。這只是我們的一些基礎業務的復甦，我們在柔性產品、一些新產品和柔性產品方面獲得了一些份額，並且取得了良好的結果。我們對柔性材料和熱成型的這種結合充滿希望。因此，第一季持平於中個位數——全年中低個位數，我們的基礎業務有所復甦。

Yes. And I said we're also cautiously optimistic as we see our customers starting to market more you're seeing more discounting actions. So the expectation is that through the course of the year, we'll start seeing some improvements, as Roger just said.

是的。我說過，我們也持謹慎樂觀的態度，因為我們看到我們的客戶開始進行更多的行銷，你會看到更多的折扣行動。因此，正如羅傑剛才所說，我們預計在這一年中，我們將開始看到一些改進。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then in Metalpack, I'm sorry if I missed this, but would you expect full year volumes to be flattish or maybe slightly up or slightly down. And then I'm just curious on aerosol, another packager has discussed aerosol potentially being under some pressure due to cost and sort of ESG concerns. I'm wondering if you're seeing anything similar to that? And then just broadly, if I think about the composition of Metalpack between food cans, aerosol and maybe closures. How that business has changed or if you've kind of shifted the mix around since you acquired it?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後在 Metalpack 中，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但您是否預計全年銷量將持平，或者可能略有上升或略有下降。然後我只是對氣霧劑感到好奇，另一家包裝商討論了由於成本和 ESG 問題，氣霧劑可能面臨一些壓力。我想知道你是否看過類似的事情？然後，從廣義上講，如果我考慮一下 Metalpack 在食品罐、氣霧劑和可能的密封件之間的成分。該業務發生了怎樣的變化，或者自從您收購它以來，您是否已經改變了業務組合？

Yes. No, of course, the long shelf life, destocking has carried a little bit further than you normally would expect against our portfolio. What we're seeing right now, and we're expecting and what we're hearing from our customers and how the year started, we're actually looking at a net being up year-over-year, call it, low to mid-single digits. Aerosol in particular, is actually on the favorable side of that. If you look at the fourth quarter alone, year-over-year, aerosols were actually up mid- to low single digits and food was slightly down.

是的。不，當然，保質期很長，去庫存的進展比您通常對我們的投資組合的預期要遠一些。我們現在所看到的、我們所期望的、我們從客戶那裡聽到的以及今年是如何開始的，我們實際上看到的是淨值逐年上升，稱之為中低水平- 個位數。尤其是氣霧劑，實際上是有利的。如果僅看第四季度，與去年同期相比，氣溶膠實際上上升了中低個位數，而食品則略有下降。

So pretty pleased with what we're seeing in terms of recovery from a volume perspective with a pretty weak, very weak start to last year. But very, very understandable. Again, considering the long shelf life associated with these products. So pretty bullish about volume recoveries as we kind of start the year as we finish out January and as we look into next year and as we finished last year in the fourth quarter.

我們對從銷售角度看到的復甦感到非常滿意，去年的開局非常疲軟。但非常非常可以理解。再次考慮到這些產品的較長保質期。因此，我們對銷售的恢復非常樂觀，因為我們在 1 月結束時開始了新的一年，在我們展望明年以及去年第四季結束時。

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 和 Baird 的對話。

I guess going back to the Industrial segment, looking at the margins in the fourth quarter. This was the first quarter of year-over-year margin decline since the first quarter '21. Just curious to your thoughts on the evolution from here and I know there's a lot going on with OCC and just the index-based pricing pass-through, et cetera. I would just love to hear your thoughts as it relates to 2024.

我想回到工業領域，看看第四季的利潤率。這是自 21 年第一季以來第一季利潤率同比下降。只是好奇你對這裡演變的想法，我知道 OCC 正在發生很多事情，還有基於指數的定價傳遞等等。我很想聽聽您對 2024 年的想法。

Ghansham, this is Roger. As we look at the margins for the first quarter industry looks basically flat to the fourth quarter. We are seeing -- as we've already said, this will be our largest impact -- negative impact on price cost, but we are also seeing recovery in our paper mill system, primarily in North America. Our global URB system ran about 87% capacity in Q4. But our North American URB capacity was close to 92% in Q4, and we expect that to move up into the mid-90s in Q1 with increased demand as well as the move we made on the Sumner mill. So we expect, yes, negative price cost, but we also expect better productivity through capacity utilization and our biggest part of our URB system, which is north of (inaudible).

甘沙姆，這是羅傑。從第一季的利潤率來看，該行業的利潤率與第四季度基本持平。正如我們已經說過的，這將是我們最大的影響——對價格成本的負面影響，但我們也看到我們的造紙廠系統（主要是北美）的復甦。我們的全球 URB 系統在第四季度運行了約 87% 的容量。但我們的北美 URB 產能在第四季度接近 92%，我們預計隨著需求的增加以及我們對薩姆納工廠的舉措，這一產能將在第一季上升到 90 年代中期。因此，我們預計，是的，價格成本為負，但我們也預計透過產能利用率和 URB 系統的最大部分（位於（聽不清楚）北部）來提高生產力。

And I would add that I think the acceptance of the -- of the price increase effective mid-quarter, mid-first quarter has been positive.

我想補充一點，我認為人們對季度中期、第一季中期生效的漲價的接受是積極的。

Yes. I think as you know, we're about 60% weighted to the resi tan bending index, about 20% related to OCC and 20% open market. So obviously, we're going off to the open market now. But as Rob mentioned, the 60% weighted to tan bending ship will impact more the second quarter than the first.

是的。我認為如您所知，我們大約 60% 與 Resi tan 彎曲指數相關，大約 20% 與 OCC 相關，20% 與公開市場相關。顯然，我們現在要進入公開市場。但正如 Rob 所提到的，60% 加權棕褐色彎曲船舶對第二季的影響將比第一季更大。

Okay. That's helpful. And then back to the consumer business, just volume weakness being persistent over the last several quarters. It's not just you. It's a peer group in terms of destocking, et cetera, that's impacted the supply chain. Can you just sort of characterize the competitive backdrop as we kind of progress through this lower for longer sort of volume weakness paradigm and you have a bunch of different businesses within consumer. And I just would love to hear your thoughts as it relates to just the competitive backdrop in context of an industry that's typically very competitive anyway.

好的。這很有幫助。然後回到消費者業務，過去幾季銷售持續疲軟。不只是你。這是一個在去庫存等方面的同行群體，這對供應鏈產生了影響。您能否描述一下競爭背景，因為我們在這種較低、較長的銷售疲軟範式中取得了進展，並且消費者中有許多不同的業務。我很想聽聽您的想法，因為它與一個通常競爭非常激烈的行業背景下的競爭背景有關。

Yes. I mean we feel really good. I mean, from a share position perspective, I'm not aware of any material share loss. So in fact, I've probably got a longer list of share gains. They're just not overcoming the overall segment consumer segment situation and demand profile.

是的。我的意思是我們感覺真的很好。我的意思是，從股票部位的角度來看，我不知道有任何重大股票損失。所以事實上，我可能有一個更長的股票收益清單。他們只是沒有克服整個細分市場消費者的情況和需求狀況。

Frankly, if you -- as we talk about volumes and it's across all our businesses through the year, and then you flip over and look at the productivity performance, and I thought about this before, we've invested extremely heavily in all our businesses in the core and are continuing to see our productivity increase. And as volumes do recovery and leverage starts really materializing or normalizing within our facilities. I'm pretty bullish about how we can convert that into even higher productivity than we've been seeing thus far.

坦白說，如果你——當我們談論銷量時，它涉及我們全年所有業務，然後你翻過來看看生產力表現，我之前考慮過這一點，我們對所有業務進行了大量投資我們的生產力持續提高。隨著產量的增加，我們的設施內的恢復和槓桿率開始真正實現或正常化。我非常看好我們如何將其轉化為比迄今為止更高的生產力。

But no, from a share position we're in good shape from a share position as far as I'm concerned.

但不，就我而言，從股票部位來看，我們的狀況良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

Howard, Roger, I wanted to revisit the integration that George initially asked about of flexibles with thermal forming. And just bigger, I guess, picture context around you guys, I think you've talked about trying to build a franchise position in rigid metal packaging. And curious if this move changes that perspective. You guys have talked about the sustainability attributes of origin metal packaging? And then maybe if anything changes from your perspective? And is there further risk your outlook, especially in the tinplate business given the announcement this morning from [Cleve] to (inaudible) facility here in North America.

霍華德、羅傑，我想重新檢視喬治最初詢問的柔性材料與熱成型的整合。我想，從你們周圍的背景來看，我想你們已經談到了試圖在剛性金屬包裝領域建立特許經營地位。很好奇這一舉動是否會改變這種看法。你們有談論過原產金屬包裝的可持續性屬性嗎？然後也許從你的角度來看有什麼改變嗎？鑑於今天早上從[克利夫]到北美這裡的（聽不清楚）工廠的消息，您的前景是否存在進一步的風險，特別是在馬口鐵業務方面。

Yes. again, we'll get into this in more detail, and I think it will be a lot more obvious to all of you next week of why it makes sense to combine these under one leadership team. And as we look at -- so look, we do think it's going to open up the aperture in terms of acquisition opportunities within that side of the business, but it doesn't take away from many of the other core businesses at all. It just makes -- and you'll see that next week makes good solid sense. The Cleveland that not really a big surprise as related to the mill not a material impact to us at all from a supply position. And that's really all I can say to that. We don't view that as an impact to us in any way this year or in future years going forward, depending on how long they do and tend to keep that mill down.

是的。再次，我們將更詳細地討論這一點，我認為下週你們所有人都會更加明顯地明白為什麼將這些合併到一個領導團隊之下是有意義的。正如我們所看到的那樣，我們確實認為這將在該業務領域的收購機會方面打開大門，但它根本不會剝奪許多其他核心業務。它只是讓——你會發現下週的事情是很有意義的。克利夫蘭工廠的情況並不令人意外，因為它對我們的供應狀況根本沒有造成重大影響。我對此只能說這麼多。我們認為這不會對我們今年或未來幾年產生任何影響，這取決於他們這樣做多久以及傾向於關閉工廠。

Okay. And then the recovery in consumer, we're reading about cocoa hitting new highs in terms of commodity costs. How has the recent dialogue going with your customers in terms of expectations there? I mean we're reading articles about smaller chocolate bars and things like that. I'm just curious if that's baked into your outlook.

好的。然後是消費者的復甦，我們了解到可可的商品成本創下新高。最近與客戶的對話對他們的期望進行得如何？我的意思是我們正在閱讀有關較小巧克力棒之類的文章。我只是好奇這是否融入了你的觀點。

Yes. I think as we said in my opening comments, I think we're being fairly conservative action on volume. Our customers are planning to react to the new weight loss drugs they're planning for so far, they say they see no impact on that. Really, it goes in my view, it goes back to the pricing on the shelf. And Howard mentioned it earlier. There's a lot of pressure from the big retailers now on our customers to start to bring their prices down. You're starting to see more promotions. A lot of these baked goods, snacks, confection, or discretionary items, and they had a price point where it's really impacted their volume.

是的。我認為正如我們在開場評論中所說，我認為我們在數量上採取了相當保守的行動。我們的客戶計劃對他們目前計劃使用的新減肥藥做出反應，他們說他們認為這不會產生任何影響。事實上，在我看來，這又回到了貨架上的定價。霍華德之前也提到過。現在，大型零售商對我們的客戶施加了很大的壓力，要求他們開始降低價格。您開始看到更多促銷活動。許多烘焙食品、零食、糖果或非必需品，它們的價格點確實影響了它們的銷售量。

So what we're hearing from our customers is they're going to be more aggressive on promotions and more aggressive on regaining some of the volume that's been lost over the last year. So that's what we're depending on along with the good job our team does on new products and like the paper bottom for the Pringles can for Kellanova and the global expansion on those packages have been fantastic. That's why we're more confident about our recovery in consumer volumes as we go throughout the year.

因此，我們從客戶那裡聽到的是，他們將更加積極地進行促銷，並更加積極地恢復去年失去的部分銷售量。因此，這就是我們所依賴的，以及我們的團隊在新產品方面所做的出色工作，就像 Kellanova 的品客薯片罐頭紙底一樣，這些包裝的全球擴張非常出色。這就是為什麼我們對全年消費的復甦更有信心。

Okay. And one last one, I apologize just for posterity sake, the divestiture that you all announced, if I heard you correctly, assuming it closes at the end of Q1. It's maybe a $0.07, $0.08 drag to the midpoint of your guidance. Is that what I'm hearing? And then on URB and downstream-related products price increases, are you assuming or embedding in your outlook today that the 20% of the open market, there's price realization there, and then we'll wait to see this Friday, what's recognized by RISI, maybe specifically what's embedded in the Q1 outlook or H1 outlook.

好的。最後一個，我只是為了子孫後代而道歉，如果我沒聽錯的話，假設你們宣布的資產剝離，假設它在第一季末結束。這可能會拖累您指導的中點 0.07 美元、0.08 美元。這就是我聽到的嗎？然後關於 URB 和下游相關產品的價格上漲，您是否假設或嵌入您今天的展望中，即 20% 的公開市場，那裡有價格實現，然後我們將等著看本週五 RISI 的認可，也許特別是第一季展望或上半年展望所包含的內容。

Gabe, yes. So we are -- we there, we expect the sale of [Protexic] to close at the end of Q1. And if it does, then that will be a 7 cent drag on the year we anticipate for industrial pricing we're seeing that flow through. Certainly, the trade market, sales Howard and Rodger have said, is flowing through well. That's a component of our current guide.

加布，是的。因此，我們預計 [Protexic] 的銷售將在第一季末完成。如果確實如此，那麼我們預計這一年的工業定價將受到 7 美分的拖累。當然，霍華德和羅傑表示，貿易市場的銷售情況良好。這是我們目前指南的一部分。

(Operator Instructions) and our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mark Weintraub。

Maybe kind of first more housekeeping. What did the metal over(inaudible) you finally embedded for 2024?

也許首先需要更多的家事服務。 2024 年您最終在金屬上（聽不清楚）嵌入了什麼？

We lost you for a second there, Mark, but I'm assuming you're asking about metal price overlap. For the year, it will be slightly less than what it was last year. So it's actually a slight positive on a year-over-year basis. In Q1, because of the timing, it's going to be net neutral.

馬克，我們暫時失去了您的聯繫，但我假設您是在問金屬價格重疊。今年將略低於去年。因此，與去年同期相比，這實際上是一個輕微的正面影響。在第一季度，由於時機的原因，它將是淨中性的。

Okay. Great. Hopefully, you can hear me now. Do you -- so what did it end up being in 2023?

好的。偉大的。希望你現在能聽到我的聲音。那麼 2023 年最終會是什麼樣子呢？

Yes. So last year, it was $41 million negative. This year, we anticipate just the Q1 component of that to repeat.

是的。所以去年，它是負 4100 萬美元。今年，我們預計只會重複第一季的部分內容。

Okay. And can you quantify that for us?

好的。您能為我們量化一下嗎？

Sure. It was between $20 million and $25 million.

當然。金額在 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元之間。

Okay. Super. And then on URB I think you mentioned that you expect to be in the mid-90s post the actions you've been taking in North America and demand getting a little bit better. Where are you now in terms of integration in URB in North America? Maybe we start with that?

好的。極好的。然後在 URB 上，我想您提到您預計在 90 年代中期您在北美採取的行動之後會要求變得更好一點。您目前在北美 URB 的整合進展如何？也許我們就從那裡開始？

Are you talking about integrated? Yes, integrated volume, we're in the -- we're about 55%, 56% integrated volume now, Mark, with the RTS acquisition.

你說的是整合化嗎？是的，就綜合量而言，隨著 RTS 的收購，我們現在的綜合量約為 55%、56%，馬克。

(Operator Instructions) and I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Lisa Weeks for closing remarks.

（操作員說明），我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。現在我想請麗莎·威克斯（Lisa Weeks）發言結束會議。

Thank you all for joining us today. If you have any follow-ups, we'll be around after the call to answer your questions or contact me to schedule a follow-up. As Howard stated, we look forward to hosting you at our Investor and Analyst Day in New York next week on February 22. This will be an in-person event, and a webcast will also be available. Registration details are on our website. We also look forward to seeing you on the road at our planned conferences and events in the coming months, and we'll talk to you again in May when we report our first quarter results. Thanks to everyone, and have a great day.

感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續行動，我們將在通話後回答您的問題或聯絡我安排後續行動。正如 Howard 所說，我們期待在下週 2 月 22 日在紐約舉行的投資者和分析師日活動中接待您。這將是一場面對面的活動，也將提供網路直播。註冊詳情位於我們的網站上。我們也期待在未來幾個月規劃的會議和活動中見到您，我們將在 5 月報告第一季業績時再次與您交談。謝謝大家，祝你有美好的一天。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。