Sonoco Products Co (SON) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sonoco Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lisa Weeks, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 Sonoco 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係和傳播副總裁 Lisa Weeks。請繼續。

Thank you operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us today for Sonoco's Fourth Quarter 2022 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Joining me this morning are Howard Coker, President and CEO; Rob Dillard, Chief Financial Officer; and Rodger Fuller, Chief Operating Officer.

感謝運營商，感謝大家今天加入我們，參加 Sonoco 的 2022 年第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。今天早上和我一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Howard Coker； Rob Dillard，首席財務官；首席運營官 Rodger Fuller。

Last evening, we issued a news release highlighting our financial performance for the fourth quarter and we prepared a presentation that we will reference during this call. The press release and presentation are available online under the Investor Relations section of our website at www.sonoco.com.

昨晚，我們發布了一份新聞稿，重點介紹了我們第四季度的財務業績，並準備了一份演示文稿，供本次電話會議參考。新聞稿和演示文稿可在我們網站 www.sonoco.com 的“投資者關係”部分在線獲取。

As a reminder, during today's call, we will discuss a number of forward-looking statements based on current expectations, estimates and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, therefore, actual results may differ materially. Please take a moment to review the forward-looking statements on Page 2 of the presentation.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論一些基於當前預期、估計和預測的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不是未來業績的保證，並受某些風險和不確定性的影響，因此，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請花點時間查看演示文稿第 2 頁上的前瞻性陳述。

Additionally, today's presentation includes the use of non-GAAP financial measures which management believes provides useful information to investors about the company's financial condition and results of operations. Further information about the company's use of non-GAAP financial measures, including definitions as well as reconciliations to GAAP measures is available under the Investor Relations section of our website.

此外，今天的演示文稿包括使用非 GAAP 財務指標，管理層認為這些指標可為投資者提供有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息。有關公司使用非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息，包括定義以及與 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參見我們網站的投資者關係部分。

For today's call, Howard will begin by covering a summary of 2022 performance. Rob will then review our detailed financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year, and along with Rodger Fuller will discuss our guidance update for the first quarter and full year of 2023. Howard will then provide closing comments followed by a Q&A session.

對於今天的電話會議，霍華德將首先總結 2022 年的表現。然後 Rob 將審查我們第四季度和全年的詳細財務結果，並與 Rodger Fuller 一起討論我們對 2023 年第一季度和全年的指導更新。霍華德隨後將提供結束評論，然後是問答環節。

If you will please turn to Slide 4 in our presentation. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Howard Coker.

如果願意，請轉到我們演示文稿中的幻燈片 4。我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Howard Coker。

Thank you, Lisa, and thanks to all of you for joining our call this morning. We really look forward to sharing our transformational results for the past year and provide our outlook for 2023.

謝謝你，麗莎，感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我們非常期待分享我們過去一年的轉型成果，並提供我們對 2023 年的展望。

As we look at 2022, it was a pivotal year for Sonoco, where we made significant progress on our strategy to continue growth as a world-class packaging company with a portfolio of highly engineered and sustainable products to support our customers. When I took this role 3 years ago, we started on a journey to fundamentally change the trajectory of long-term profits of the company. And to do that, we had to take a pretty complex business and simplify both our portfolio and the way we run the company to drive improved growth and profitability.

展望 2022 年，這對 Sonoco 來說是關鍵的一年，我們在戰略上取得了重大進展，繼續發展成為世界一流的包裝公司，提供高度工程化和可持續的產品組合來支持我們的客戶。當我 3 年前擔任這個職位時，我們開始了從根本上改變公司長期利潤軌蹟的旅程。為此，我們必須開展一項相當複雜的業務，並簡化我們的投資組合和我們運營公司的方式，以推動增長和盈利能力的提高。

These changes were necessary for us to deploy capital more efficiently to our larger core business units and to better integrate acquisitions. In fact, the metal packaging acquisitions were the largest in the company's history, and performance and integration are well ahead of schedule. In parallel, we worked hard on commercial excellence to reposition pricing to less follow total indices, while improving the timing of recovery for higher manufacturing costs.

這些變化對於我們更有效地將資本部署到我們更大的核心業務部門和更好地整合收購是必要的。事實上，金屬包裝收購是公司歷史上規模最大的一次，業績和整合都大大提前。與此同時，我們努力實現商業卓越，以重新定位定價以減少遵循總指數，同時改善更高製造成本的恢復時間。

It's taken several years with the efforts of these programs reflected in our 2022 results, and we expect them to continue well into the future.

這些計劃的努力反映在我們 2022 年的結果中花費了數年時間，我們希望它們能在未來繼續下去。

In 2022, we saw strong year-over-year performance in which revenue grew 30% to $7.3 billion. Base EBITDA grew 51% to $1.15 billion and base earnings per share grew 65% to $6.48. These records obvious -- obviously were a record in the 24-year history of this company. I couldn't be more proud of the team for these results, which were achieved in another year, which was nothing short of chaotic. All of us staying true to the mission of Sonoco and further advancing our ESG and sustainability initiatives, which are intently aligned to the values of this company and a part of our everyday lives.

2022 年，我們看到了強勁的同比表現，收入增長 30% 至 73 億美元。基本 EBITDA 增長 51% 至 11.5 億美元，基本每股收益增長 65% 至 6.48 美元。這些記錄顯而易見——顯然是這家公司 24 年曆史上的記錄。我為團隊取得這些成績感到無比自豪，這些成績是在又一年取得的，這簡直就是混亂。我們所有人都忠於 Sonoco 的使命，並進一步推進我們的 ESG 和可持續發展計劃，這些計劃與這家公司的價值觀和我們日常生活的一部分密切相關。

So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Rob to take you through the financial results and our forward guidance.

因此，我將把它交給 Rob，讓您了解財務結果和我們的前瞻性指導。

Thanks, Howard. I'll begin on Slide 6 with a review of key financial results for the fourth quarter. Please note that all results discussed will be adjusted to base and all growth metrics will be on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise stated. The GAAP to non-GAAP EPS reconciliation can be found in the appendix of this presentation, as well as in the press release.

謝謝，霍華德。我將從幻燈片 6 開始，回顧第四季度的主要財務業績。請注意，除非另有說明，否則所有討論的結果都將根據基礎進行調整，所有增長指標都將按年計算。 GAAP 與非 GAAP EPS 調節可在本演示文稿的附錄以及新聞稿中找到。

The fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results again represented Sonoco's ability to deliver strong results from our core market positions, despite challenging market conditions.

儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績再次表明 Sonoco 有能力從我們的核心市場地位取得強勁業績。

Sales increased 16.5% to $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The sales growth was driven primarily by the Sonoco Metal Packaging acquisition and an 11.5% increase in price as strategic pricing efforts continue to both offset inflation and reflect the value we provide our customers.

第四季度銷售額增長 16.5% 至 17 億美元。銷售增長主要受 Sonoco Metal Packaging 收購和價格上漲 11.5% 的推動，因為戰略定價努力繼續抵消通貨膨脹並反映我們為客戶提供的價值。

Volumes in the fourth quarter declined 8.5%, due primarily to declining demand in the global URB and converted paper products markets, and also due to soft consumer volumes, particularly in the last weeks of the quarter.

第四季度的銷量下降了 8.5%，這主要是由於全球 URB 和加工紙產品市場的需求下降，以及消費量疲軟，尤其是在本季度的最後幾週。

Base operating profit increased 34% to $184 million, and base operating profit margin increased 145 basis points to 11%. This strong performance was due to strategic pricing that offset inflation and a lack of operating leverage due to low volumes.

基本營業利潤增長 34% 至 1.84 億美元，基本營業利潤率增長 145 個基點至 11%。這種強勁的表現歸功於抵消通貨膨脹的戰略定價以及由於銷量低而缺乏運營槓桿。

While metal packaging was important to these results, excluding metal packaging, operating profit would have grown 28%, and operating profit margin would have been 12.2%. The base EBITDA increased 31% to $241 million, and base EBITDA margin increased 160 basis points to 14.4%. This margin improvement has been strategic and is backed by ongoing portfolio management actions, footprint optimization activities, value-enhancing capital investments and structural transformation. These actions have enabled a reduction in SG&A as a percent of sales from 9.8% in 2020 and 8.8% in 2021 to 8% in 2022. Importantly, we have reduced this metric while also investing in our commercial, operational and supply chain capabilities.

雖然金屬包裝對這些結果很重要，但不包括金屬包裝，營業利潤將增長 28%，營業利潤率為 12.2%。基本 EBITDA 增長 31% 至 2.41 億美元，基本 EBITDA 利潤率增長 160 個基點至 14.4%。這種利潤率的提高具有戰略意義，並得到持續的投資組合管理行動、足跡優化活動、增值資本投資和結構轉型的支持。這些行動使 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比從 2020 年的 9.8% 和 2021 年的 8.8% 下降到 2022 年的 8%。重要的是，我們在降低這一指標的同時還投資於我們的商業、運營和供應鏈能力。

Finally, base earnings per share increased 28% to $1.27. This increase in earnings was attributable to strong operating performance, offset by $0.04 of negative FX and enabled by a lower tax rate of 21.3% in the quarter.

最後，每股基本收益增長 28% 至 1.27 美元。收益的增長歸因於強勁的經營業績，被 0.04 美元的負外匯抵消，並被本季度 21.3% 的較低稅率所抵消。

The sales bridge on Slide 7 provides the primary drivers for growth in the quarter. Volume mix was negative $123 million or 8.5%. Consumer segment volumes were down primarily due to consumer inventory management and weather in the fresh food businesses. We view these effects as transitory and not a trend. We do not anticipate they'll continue in the first quarter.

Slide 7 上的銷售橋樑為本季度的增長提供了主要驅動力。銷量組合為負 1.23 億美元或 8.5%。消費者部門的銷量下降主要是由於新鮮食品業務的消費者庫存管理和天氣。我們認為這些影響是暫時的，而不是趨勢。我們預計他們不會在第一季度繼續。

Industrial segment volumes were also down in the quarter and continued declines in Europe and Asia. U.S. industrial volumes also declined, particularly due to the exiting of the corrugated media market.

本季度工業部門銷量也有所下降，歐洲和亞洲繼續下滑。美國工業銷量也有所下降，特別是由於瓦楞原紙市場的退出。

Price was $166 million positive, up 11.5% in the fourth quarter. Our pricing performance continued to reflect strategic pricing efforts associated with our commercial excellence strategy, mainly selling to value and managing contracts to recover inflation.

第四季度價格為 1.66 億美元，增長 11.5%。我們的定價表現繼續反映與我們的商業卓越戰略相關的戰略定價努力，主要是銷售價值和管理合同以恢復通貨膨脹。

Acquisitions increased $239 million, driven by metal packaging in our first month of Skjern. The integration of Skjern is ahead of schedule, and we're excited about both adding new team members in Europe and our expanded capability to serve consumer end markets. The base operating profit bridge illustrates our improving profitability in greater detail.

在 Skjern 的第一個月，受金屬包裝的推動，收購增加了 2.39 億美元。 Skjern 的整合提前完成，我們很高興在歐洲增加新的團隊成員，並擴大我們為消費者終端市場提供服務的能力。基本營業利潤橋更詳細地說明了我們不斷提高的盈利能力。

Volume mix was negative $35 million, primarily due to lower volumes in industrials. Price/cost was an $87 million benefit in the quarter. Consumer had strong price cost performance, generating $16 million of favorability primarily from RPC. We achieved $66 million of positive price/cost in the Industrial segment in the fourth quarter. The strong price/cost performance was due to contractual pricing mechanisms and historically low OCC costs. OCC averaged $38 per ton in the quarter versus $123 per ton in the third quarter and $183 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2021.

銷量組合為負 3500 萬美元，主要是由於工業銷量下降。本季度的價格/成本收益為 8700 萬美元。消費者俱有很強的性價比，主要通過 RPC 產生了 1600 萬美元的好感度。第四季度，我們在工業部門實現了 6600 萬美元的正價格/成本。強勁的價格/成本表現是由於合同定價機制和歷史上較低的 OCC 成本。 OCC 本季度平均每噸 38 美元，而第三季度為每噸 123 美元，2021 年第四季度為每噸 183 美元。

In 2022, we achieved a record $340 million of positive price/cost. These figures exclude metal packaging, which was accounted for in the acquisitions.

2022 年，我們實現了創紀錄的 3.4 億美元的正價格/成本。這些數字不包括在收購中考慮的金屬包裝。

Acquisitions and divestitures generated $9 million of base operating profit in the quarter. As metal packaging continues to perform as expected, margins in this business were lower than previous quarters due to normal seasonality associated with food can volume and lower volumes in aerosols associated with inventory rebalancing. Other impacts on the quarter were negative $8 million due to higher depreciation and FX headwinds, which specifically were -- impacted operating profit of $5 million in the quarter.

收購和資產剝離在本季度產生了 900 萬美元的基本營業利潤。由於金屬包裝繼續按預期表現，該業務的利潤率低於前幾個季度，原因是與食品罐頭銷量相關的正常季節性以及與庫存重新平衡相關的氣霧劑銷量下降。由於更高的折舊和外匯不利因素，本季度的其他影響為負 800 萬美元，具體而言，本季度營業利潤受影響 500 萬美元。

Slide 8 has an overview of our segment performance for the quarter. Consumer sales grew 49% to $879 million due to the metal packaging acquisition and strong performance -- strong price performance, only partially offset by negative volumes of 2.5%. Volumes would have been generally flat, excluding the impact of weather and plastic foods and mix from exiting ice cream segment in RPC Europe.

幻燈片 8 概述了我們本季度的部門業績。消費品銷售額增長 49% 至 8.79 億美元，這歸功於金屬包裝的收購和強勁的業績——強勁的價格表現，僅被 2.5% 的負銷量所部分抵消。排除天氣和塑料食品的影響，以及 RPC Europe 退出冰淇淋市場的混合物，銷量基本持平。

Consumer operating profit grew 37% to $85 million in the quarter. Operating profit margin declined 83 basis points to 9.7%. Again, excluding metal packaging from -- for comparison purposes, consumer operating profit margins would have been 11.9% at 139 basis point improvement.

本季度消費者營業利潤增長 37% 至 8500 萬美元。營業利潤率下降 83 個基點至 9.7%。同樣，排除金屬包裝——出於比較目的，消費者營業利潤率為 11.9%，提高 139 個基點。

Industrial sales declined 8.9% to $597 million due to a 15% decline in volumes. Volumes weakened throughout the quarter due to customer inventory management and lower end market demand and more economic sensitive regions and segments. Operating profit grew 34% to $79 million as price/cost offset low utilization.

由於銷量下降 15%，工業銷售額下降 8.9% 至 5.97 億美元。由於客戶庫存管理和低端市場需求以及對經濟更敏感的地區和細分市場，整個季度的銷量都在減弱。由於價格/成本抵消了低利用率，營業利潤增長了 34% 至 7900 萬美元。

Industrial pricing is holding, as pricing mechanisms are now oriented to overall inflation recovery and value delivered rather than OCC prices. Operating profit margin increased 422 basis points to 13.3%, while other sales increased 2.5% to $200 million, and operating profit increased 24% to $20 million. Growth was driven by strategic pricing and overall stable volumes.

工業定價保持不變，因為定價機制現在面向整體通脹復甦和交付價值，而不是 OCC 價格。營業利潤率增長 422 個基點至 13.3%，而其他銷售額增長 2.5% 至 2 億美元，營業利潤增長 24% 至 2000 萬美元。增長是由戰略定價和整體穩定的銷量推動的。

Moving to Slide 9. We have a record full year 2022 financial summary. Revenue grew by 30% to $7.3 billion, driven by acquisitions, volume in Consumer Packaging and strategic pricing. Base operating profit increased 63% to $920 million, driven primarily by positive price/cost and acquisitions. Base EBITDA rose 51% to $1.15 billion and base EBITDA margins expanded to 15.8%. Last, our base EPS for 2022 grew by 65% to $6.48.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們有創紀錄的 2022 年全年財務摘要。在收購、消費品包裝銷量和戰略定價的推動下，收入增長了 30%，達到 73 億美元。基本營業利潤增長 63% 至 9.2 億美元，這主要是受到積極的價格/成本和收購的推動。基本 EBITDA 增長 51% 至 11.5 億美元，基本 EBITDA 利潤率擴大至 15.8%。最後，我們 2022 年的基本每股收益增長了 65%，達到 6.48 美元。

We also announced the acquisition from WestRock of the remaining equity interest in RTS packaging in 1 paper mill in Chattanooga, Tennessee. In light of the current status of the regulatory review process, we now expect the closing of the acquisition to occur in the second half of 2023.

我們還宣布從 WestRock 收購田納西州查塔努加 1 家造紙廠的 RTS 包裝剩餘股權。鑑於監管審查程序的現狀，我們現在預計收購將於 2023 年下半年完成。

Turning to Slide 10. Our capital allocation framework is aligned with our business strategy to drive value creation for our shareholders. Our priority is to allocate capital to high-return investments in our core businesses, to drive growth and improve efficiencies.

轉到幻燈片 10。我們的資本配置框架與我們的業務戰略保持一致，以推動為股東創造價值。我們的首要任務是將資金分配給核心業務的高回報投資，以推動增長和提高效率。

From a free cash flow perspective, we remain focused on increasing the dividend, which at present is $0.49 per share on a quarterly basis or a greater than 3% average yield over the past 12 months. We paid $187 million in dividends in 2022.

從自由現金流的角度來看，我們仍然專注於增加股息，目前每季度每股 0.49 美元，或者過去 12 個月的平均收益率超過 3%。我們在 2022 年支付了 1.87 億美元的股息。

After capital investments in the dividend, we prioritize investments in accretive M&A transactions aligned with our long-term strategy. We prioritized our access to capital and retaining our investment-grade credit rating. For the quarter, operating cash flow was $87 million and capital investments were $88 million. For the year, operating cash flow was $509 million and capital investments were $319 million.

在對股息進行資本投資後，我們優先投資符合我們長期戰略的增值併購交易。我們優先考慮獲得資本並保留我們的投資級信用評級。本季度，運營現金流為 8700 萬美元，資本投資為 8800 萬美元。這一年，經營現金流為 5.09 億美元，資本投資為 3.19 億美元。

On Slide 11, we have our 2023 guidance. For the first quarter, our EPS guidance is $1.15 to $1.25. Our full year 2023 EPS guidance is $5.70 to $5.90. Our full year 2023 base EBITDA guidance is $1.1 billion to $1.15 billion. Our full year operating cash flow guidance is $925 million to $975 million. We anticipate net working capital to be a meaningful benefit to cash flow in 2023.

在幻燈片 11 上，我們有 2023 年的指導。對於第一季度，我們的每股收益指導價為 1.15 美元至 1.25 美元。我們 2023 年全年每股收益指導價為 5.70 美元至 5.90 美元。我們 2023 年全年的基本 EBITDA 指引為 11 億美元至 11.5 億美元。我們的全年運營現金流量指引為 9.25 億美元至 9.75 億美元。我們預計淨營運資本將在 2023 年為現金流帶來重大收益。

Now Rodger will discuss our outlook on a segment basis.

現在，羅傑將按細分市場討論我們的前景。

Thanks, Rob. Please turn to Slide 13 for our view on segment performance, drivers for the first quarter and the full year of 2023, which supports our guidance.

謝謝，羅布。請轉到幻燈片 13，了解我們對分部業績、2023 年第一季度和全年驅動因素的看法，這支持了我們的指導意見。

Across the consumer segment for the first quarter of 2023, we expect sequential volume growth in all products, including metal cans, rigid paper packaging and flexibles. The only exception we expect is plastic packaging for fresh fruits and vegetables, which continues to be hampered by weather issues.

在 2023 年第一季度的消費領域，我們預計所有產品的銷量都將環比增長，包括金屬罐、硬紙包裝和軟包裝。我們預計唯一的例外是新鮮水果和蔬菜的塑料包裝，它繼續受到天氣問題的阻礙。

On a year-over-year basis for Q1, we expect to see positive volume driven primarily by the 1 extra month of metal packaging sales as we closed the acquisition at the end of January in 2022. For first quarter earnings, we have projected headwinds in our guidance from lower steel prices and are managing through other raw material costs and availability issues with energy, adhesives and laminates.

與第一季度相比，我們預計在 2022 年 1 月底完成收購後，金屬包裝銷售量將增加 1 個月，這主要推動銷量增長。對於第一季度的收益，我們預計會遇到不利因素在我們的指引下，鋼鐵價格下降，並正在通過其他原材料成本和能源、粘合劑和層壓板的可用性問題進行管理。

For consumer during the first full year of 2023, we see volume increases year-over-year across the portfolio included mid -- including mid-single-digit volume increases in our metal can business. We're continuing to invest for growth and productivity led by the increasing demand for sustainable packaging in our rigid and flexible packaging businesses.

對於 2023 年第一個全年的消費者，我們看到整個產品組合的銷量同比增長，其中包括我們金屬罐業務的中個位數銷量增長。由於我們的硬包裝和軟包裝業務對可持續包裝的需求不斷增加，我們將繼續投資於增長和生產力。

In our Industrial segment, we see continued softness in volumes globally in our converting and trade paper sales in the first quarter. In North America, Protective Packaging for appliances and household goods remains weak, and we expect a little near-term recovery for products that support residential home building and construction markets.

在我們的工業部門，我們看到第一季度全球範圍內的加工和貿易紙銷售量持續疲軟。在北美，電器和家居用品的保護性包裝仍然疲軟，我們預計支持住宅建築和建築市場的產品近期會出現小幅復甦。

We're monitoring the Europe and Asia demand recovery carefully as this will be critical to the overall volume outlook in industrial for the full year, which at present, we believe, will be down low single digits versus 2022 levels.

我們正在仔細監測歐洲和亞洲的需求復蘇，因為這對全年工業的整體銷量前景至關重要，我們認為，與 2022 年的水平相比，目前的銷量將下降低個位數。

Like Howard mentioned, with transitioning our contracts to more stable indices, putting in better cost recovery mechanisms and current lower input costs on OCC, our pricing in industrial remains stable. Even with the most recent modest decline of $20 a ton for URB on the RISI Index and some expectations of modestly higher OCC costs in 2023, we expect positive price/cost benefits this year in Industrial.

就像霍華德提到的那樣，隨著我們將合約過渡到更穩定的指數，在 OCC 上引入更好的成本回收機制和當前較低的投入成本，我們的工業定價保持穩定。即使最近 RISI 指數中 URB 每噸小幅下跌 20 美元，並且一些人預計 2023 年 OCC 成本會小幅上漲，我們仍預計今年工業產品的價格/成本效益將出現正值。

With planned downtime in our global paper operations, we continue to maintain reasonable backlog levels and are ramping up all paper grades on our #10 machine in Hartsville. In our -- in our all other businesses, we continue to have net stable volume demand across this collection of businesses. With improved productivity and favorable pricing actions, we expect slight increases in profitability for the all Other segments this year.

由於我們全球造紙業務計劃停機，我們將繼續保持合理的積壓水平，並提高我們位於哈茨維爾的 #10 機器的所有紙張等級。在我們的所有其他業務中，我們繼續在這些業務中保持穩定的淨需求量。隨著生產力的提高和有利的定價行動，我們預計今年所有其他部門的盈利能力將略有增長。

As we look to 2023, we have a keen focus on all forms of productivity as we see the benefits of fewer supply chain and labor disruptions. Over the past several years, we've taken decisive actions to help offset inflation and build resiliency in our operating model. At the same time, we've invested capital in our core, consumer and industrial businesses to position us for long-term growth and profitability.

展望 2023 年，我們將密切關注所有形式的生產力，因為我們看到了減少供應鍊和勞動力中斷的好處。在過去的幾年裡，我們採取了果斷的行動來幫助抵消通貨膨脹並在我們的運營模式中建立彈性。與此同時，我們已將資金投資於我們的核心、消費者和工業業務，以使我們能夠實現長期增長和盈利。

With that, I'll turn it back to Howard.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給霍華德。

Okay. Thanks, Rodger. If you would turn to Slide 15. The base earnings per share view visually demonstrated here clearly shows the step change in profit improvements for Sonoco. Our full year results include the benefit of metal pricing overlap for the company, which was approximately $0.53. Without this benefit, you would still see a very strong roughly $6 per share earnings for the period.

好的。謝謝，羅傑。如果您要翻到幻燈片 15。此處直觀顯示的基本每股收益視圖清楚地顯示了 Sonoco 利潤改善的階躍變化。我們的全年業績包括公司金屬定價重疊的收益，約為 0.53 美元。如果沒有這個好處，你仍然會看到非常強勁的每股收益大約 6 美元。

Since 2022, that -- the high-return investments we've made, while reshaping the portfolio and improving the operating model, have also resulted in an expected 15% CAGR in earnings per share through 2023, based on the midpoint of our 2023 annual guidance.

自 2022 年以來，我們所做的高回報投資，同時重塑投資組合和改進運營模式，根據我們 2023 年年度目標的中點，到 2023 年每股收益的複合年增長率預計為 15%指導。

While 2022 was a year of progress, we are only just beginning. We intend to grow profits through organic and M&A investments as well as a better efficiency in how we run the business day in and day out.

雖然 2022 年是進步的一年，但我們才剛剛開始。我們打算通過有機和併購投資來增加利潤，並提高我們日復一日經營業務的效率。

In closing, if you turn to Slide 16, we carry sustained momentum from our strategy and operating model into the new year, which we believe positions us well to navigate near-term volatility. We expect stable operating performance in the coming year where the midpoint of our base EBITDA guidance is essentially the same as last year.

最後，如果你翻到幻燈片 16，我們會將我們的戰略和運營模式的持續勢頭帶入新的一年，我們相信這使我們能夠很好地應對近期波動。我們預計來年的經營業績穩定，我們的基本 EBITDA 指引的中點與去年基本相同。

And let me be clear: The operating environment does remain very tough right now. But our expected performance reflects our better portfolio and business mix that is expected to be less volatile to business cycles.

讓我明確一點：目前的經營環境確實仍然非常艱難。但我們的預期業績反映了我們更好的投資組合和業務組合，預計它們對商業周期的波動較小。

We expect the first quarter to be the low watermark for the year based on our customer forecasts with improvements in the second and third quarter and then concluding the year with a more seasonal Q4. With improvements in working capital, we expect free cash flow for the year to be at the midpoint, around $600 million. We also remain focused on $180 million of incremental base EBITDA improvements through 2026, based on additional actions planned to further improve our core businesses and refine of our -- operating model.

根據我們的客戶預測，我們預計第一季度將是今年的低水位線，第二季度和第三季度將有所改善，然後以更具季節性的第四季度結束這一年。隨著營運資金的改善，我們預計今年的自由現金流量將處於中點，約為 6 億美元。我們還繼續專注於到 2026 年增加 1.8 億美元的基本 EBITDA 改善，這是基於計劃採取的進一步改善我們的核心業務和改進我們的運營模式的額外行動。

As always for Sonoco, capital allocation remains a cornerstone of our strategy, and we intend to continue increasing dividends while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet. In 2023 and beyond, we're focused on improving returns on invested capital through organic investments in core accretive acquisitions and through further portfolio rationalization. I have never been more positive about the long-term outlook for Sonoco.

與 Sonoco 一樣，資本配置仍然是我們戰略的基石，我們打算在保持投資級資產負債表的同時繼續增加股息。在 2023 年及以後，我們將專注於通過對核心增值收購的有機投資和進一步的投資組合合理化來提高投資資本回報率。我對 Sonoco 的長期前景從未如此樂觀。

So at this time, we would be pleased to take any questions that you may have.

所以現在，我們很樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Kyle White with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Kyle White。

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think in the food can business, I think you said you expect mid-single-digit volume increases for this year? What gives you this confidence? Curious what is driving that? Just as we look at some of the industry data that shipments have been frankly a little bit weaker than that.

如果我錯了請糾正我，但我認為在食品罐頭業務中，我想你說過你預計今年的銷量會增長中個位數？是什麼給了你這種信心？好奇是什麼驅動了它？正如我們查看一些行業數據一樣，坦率地說，出貨量比這要弱一些。

Kyle, it's Howard. Yes, we're talking from a sequential perspective. And we just have visibility of that through our conversations with our customers, our expectations. A bit of share lift, but that's exactly what our customers are reflecting to us and that's what we're building into our models.

凱爾，是霍華德。是的，我們是從順序的角度來談的。我們只是通過與客戶的對話以及我們的期望來了解這一點。份額提升了一點，但這正是我們的客戶向我們反映的，也是我們正在構建到我們的模型中的。

Got it. So sorry, was that -- you're saying it's a sequential uplift mid-single digits, not year-over-year?

知道了。很抱歉，那是——你是說這是一個中個位數的連續提升，而不是同比？

Well, year-over-year.

好吧，年復一年。

Okay. And then within that business, just a follow-up, can you remind us what the impact was from the sell-through of lower-priced steel inventory last year, and then maybe what you're projecting as a headwind in 1Q and possibly 2Q from that impact?

好的。然後在該業務中，只是一個後續行動，你能提醒我們去年低價鋼鐵庫存的銷售有什麼影響，然後你可能預測第一季度和第二季度的不利因素是什麼從那個影響？

Yes. So for the full year last year, it was $0.54 of detriment. There's actually -- because tinplate is declining this year, 10% or so. There's actually going to be detriment as well this year for metal price overlap from the inventory we've carried over. We think that will be an incremental $0.20 to $0.30.

是的。因此，去年全年的損失為 0.54 美元。實際上 - 因為馬口鐵今年下降了 10% 左右。實際上，今年我們結轉的庫存也會對金屬價格重疊造成不利影響。我們認為這將增加 0.20 美元至 0.30 美元。

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Congratulations on the progress in '22. I wanted to hit on consumer trends that you're seeing. You talked about some inventory management by your customers at the end of the quarter. Can you talk about what they're seeing and what you're seeing as you're entering 1Q across some of your key, either end markets and product lines?

祝賀你在 22 年取得的進步。我想抓住你所看到的消費趨勢。您談到了您的客戶在本季度末進行的一些庫存管理。你能談談他們在進入 1Q 時看到的情況以及你在一些關鍵的終端市場和產品線中看到的情況嗎？

And if you would try to differentiate in the center store, paper versus plastic, we get that plastic for fresh is having its issues, But center store, what are you seeing in terms of your paperboard consumer packaging versus your plastic-based packaging?

如果你想在中心商店中區分紙質和塑料，我們知道新鮮塑料有它的問題，但是中心商店，你在紙板消費包裝和塑料包裝方面看到了什麼？

George, let me try to hit on that. And Rodger, if you've got any follow-up. But it wasn't just on the consumer side, it was across the entire portfolio that we just saw a tremendous brakes hit towards the latter part of last quarter, and I think that's across all industry actually.

喬治，讓我試試看。羅傑，如果你有任何後續行動的話。但這不僅僅是在消費者方面，在整個投資組合中，我們剛剛看到上個季度後半段的巨大剎車，我認為這實際上是在所有行業中。

On the consumer side, we were being told that, that really is a reflection of inventory drawdowns, et cetera. As we've entered the quarter, we have not finished up and closed out of January. But looking at the top line, pretty impressed with the comeback that we're seeing across the board. And the plastic side, the real issue there is the weather events, both in Florida with the freeze and in California with the floods and the impact on the fresh produce.

在消費者方面，我們被告知，這確實反映了庫存減少等。當我們進入本季度時，我們還沒有完成並關閉 1 月份。但看看最重要的是，我們對全面看到的捲土重來印象深刻。在塑料方面，真正的問題是天氣事件，佛羅里達州的凍結和加利福尼亞州的洪水以及對新鮮農產品的影響。

But -- no, we're seeing really, really solid signs and reflecting, I think, this year somewhere in the neighborhood of a 4% and a 5% type lift year-over-year on the consumer side. But coming out of the gates, pretty impressed with what we're seeing right now. Rod, don't you got anything?

但是——不，我們看到了非常、非常堅實的跡象，並反映出，我認為，今年消費者方面的同比增長大約為 4% 和 5%。但是走出大門，我們現在所看到的給我們留下了深刻的印象。羅德，你什麼都沒有嗎？

No, you hit it, Howard. I think the modest declines in the rigid paper cans in the fourth quarter, George, as Howard said, seeing a nice recovery in January. Really nice -- another nice quarter by flexibles 4% growth. And the fourth quarter, budgeting something 5% for the year and expect more of the same as we head into next year. So the pressure really was from our plastics business.

不，你成功了，霍華德。正如霍華德所說，我認為硬質紙罐在第四季度出現小幅下滑，並在 1 月份看到了良好的複蘇。真的很好——靈活的 4% 增長又是一個不錯的季度。第四季度，今年的預算約為 5%，並預計明年會有更多相同的預算。所以壓力確實來自我們的塑料業務。

Understood. That's very, very helpful, guys. Secondly, can you talk to what benefit realizing it's a moving target. It's going to be based on the evolution of the market, evolution of your inputs.

明白了。伙計們，這非常非常有幫助。其次，你能談談實現它是一個移動目標有什麼好處嗎？它將基於市場的演變，你的投入的演變。

But what benefit should expect for Sonoco from commercial excellence this year and other self-help measures? And where we stand in terms of ultimately realizing the targets you would have on both of those during the transformation?

但是，Sonoco 應該從今年的商業卓越表現和其他自助措施中得到什麼好處呢？就最終實現您在轉型期間對這兩個目標的目標而言，我們的立場如何？

Yes, George, it's Rodger again. Commercial excellence, I mean, you saw -- you see the results from last year on price cost. And frankly, that's from a couple of years of really hard work around commercial excellence. And we talked about what we see in the guidance for the next year from a price cost standpoint. So those efforts continue and continue to pay off, and you can see it in our operating margins.

是的，喬治，又是羅傑。商業卓越，我的意思是，你看到了——你看到了去年價格成本的結果。坦率地說，這是圍繞卓越商業的幾年真正努力的結果。我們從價格成本的角度討論了我們在明年的指導中看到的內容。所以這些努力繼續並繼續得到回報，你可以在我們的營業利潤率中看到它。

On the self-help side, really, it's all about productivity as we look at 2023. We expect our productivity results to return to more historical levels and then probably plus some with the easing of supply chain and labor issues. I mean, George, you know our historical levels of productivity as well as anyone. We expect to get back to those levels and beyond.

在自助方面，實際上，這完全取決於我們展望 2023 年的生產力。我們預計我們的生產力結果將恢復到更多歷史水平，然後可能會隨著供應鍊和勞動力問題的緩解而增加一些。我的意思是，喬治，你和任何人一樣了解我們的歷史生產力水平。我們希望回到這些水平甚至更高。

So the self-help, the subtle transformation we did this year is paying off from the operating margin standpoint. So I think across the board, we're still confident in that $180 million over the next several years.

因此，從營業利潤率的角度來看，我們今年所做的自助、微妙的轉型正在取得回報。所以我認為總體而言，我們仍然對未來幾年的 1.8 億美元充滿信心。

George, let me just add on to that and not just talk year-to-year and really the journey that we've been on. And I know there's a lot of folks on the call that are pent up to either ask or thinking about, okay, we're slowing down. You are in a paper business. You're going -- you guys have performed extremely well, well at all historically in a recessionary-type environment.

喬治，讓我補充一點，而不僅僅是談論年復一年，以及我們所經歷的旅程。而且我知道電話中有很多人被壓抑著詢問或思考，好吧，我們正在放慢速度。您從事造紙業務。你們要走了——你們在經濟衰退的環境中表現得非常好，從歷史上看都很好。

So I just want to touch on what you called it, self help, whatever you want to call it, but the amount of focus and energy that we've put over the last 4 or so years in terms improving our performance in our industrial sector. And I think you can see that sequentially in terms of the returns that we've demonstrated over the periods.

所以我只想談談你所說的自助，無論你怎麼稱呼它，但我們在過去 4 年左右的時間裡在提高我們工業部門的績效方面投入的精力和精力.我認為你可以從我們在這些時期展示的回報中依次看到這一點。

So if you look at the profile of the company now, and you take -- #10 machine is one that's an interesting conversation. Of course, we spend a lot of time talking about it, but creating the lowest cost URB mill in North America, certainly within our network on a global basis, and the productivity that's going to drive. And how that is going to be attracting volume from our higher cost mills, and then we're seeing that happening now. So the benefit from that.

因此，如果您現在查看公司的概況，您會發現 - #10 機器是一個有趣的對話。當然，我們花了很多時間談論它，但在北美創建成本最低的 URB 工廠，當然是在我們的全球網絡內，以及將要推動的生產力。以及這將如何吸引我們成本較高的工廠的產量，然後我們現在看到這種情況正在發生。所以從中受益。

But the unseen benefit that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about is controlling what we can control to reduce the amount of variability within this business. And getting out of corrugated medium, I cannot tell you how volatile being in that market with such a small machine, non-vertically integrated that has been for us over the course of the last, call it, 8 to 9 years within the company.

但是我們沒有花很多時間談論的看不見的好處是控制我們可以控制的東西，以減少該業務中的可變性。從瓦楞介質中脫穎而出，我無法告訴你在過去 8 到 9 年的時間裡，這種非垂直集成的小型機器在市場上的波動有多大。

And you add to it the amount of effort on a global basis in terms of consolidations, again, focusing only solely on industrial right now, really rightsizing our locations, the investments we've made in automation. And I've said it before, and I'll repeat it, and it sounds like -- it feels like we are in a recession from our perspective on industrial, that we're in a much better position today than we have ever been. And we do not expect to see the type of variabilities that we saw pre- engaging in the activities, this global team has put forth.

而且你在整合方面增加了全球範圍內的努力，再次，現在只專注於工業，真正調整我們的位置，我們在自動化方面的投資。我以前說過，我再重複一遍，聽起來——從我們的工業角度來看，感覺我們正處於衰退之中，我們今天的處境比以往任何時候都好.我們不希望看到我們在參與活動之前看到的這種全球團隊提出的變化類型。

So sorry for the dissertation, but I noticed in questions about that. But we just -- it kind of gets frustrating when you just look at quarter-to-quarter and what you do yesterday, versus tomorrow and not look at the long runway of efforts that this global team has put in place to create the risk of -- the appropriate level of margins that we deserve for the value we generate for the market and our customers.

很抱歉這篇論文，但我注意到了相關問題。但我們只是——當你只看每個季度以及你昨天和明天所做的事情而不是看這個全球團隊為創造風險而付出的長期努力時，這有點令人沮喪——我們為市場和客戶創造的價值所應得的適當利潤水平。

Howard, we appreciate that. My last quickie is a great segue to that. So within industrial, within paperboard, you talked about the change in the contracts, commercial excellence of productivity. Can you give us some guardrails, i.e., if prices drop in the published indices by X, or OCC goes up by Y, what that might mean to the business on a going-forward basis so that we also are -- are managing our forecast with less volatility or more accuracy?

霍華德，我們對此表示讚賞。我的最後一個 quickie 是一個很好的選擇。所以在工業領域，在紙板領域，你談到了合同的變化，生產力的商業卓越。您能否給我們一些保護措施，即，如果已發布指數的價格下跌 X，或者 OCC 上漲 Y，這對未來的業務可能意味著什麼，因此我們也 - 正在管理我們的預測波動性更小還是更準確？

Yes. Thanks, George. What I would say is we have assumed that price is going to -- to moderate by X and cost is going to go up by Y, and that's built into what we feel like is going to happen this year. So that's a good question. I get it, but we have -- and I want folks to understand that we feel like there's going to be some moderate pressure on price, and there's going to be -- OCC cannot stay at $35, so we've built an upward look and impact to that in our go-forward models.

是的。謝謝，喬治。我要說的是，我們假設價格將下降 X，而成本將上升 Y，這是我們認為今年會發生的事情。所以這是一個很好的問題。我明白了，但我們已經——我想讓人們明白，我們覺得價格會有一些適度的壓力，而且將會有——OCC 不能保持在 35 美元，所以我們已經建立了向上的看法以及對我們未來模型的影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Cleve Rueckert with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Cleve Rueckert。

I just -- I wanted to follow up on the Industrial business when we're talking about it. And I'm just curious how much visibility you have into the industrial backlog. And just, sort of, given what you know about it right now, whether there is the potential for any volume growth in 2023 or if you know you have sort of visibility on a longer-term basis? And then, Howard, maybe you just sort of mentioned what are the puts and takes? I know there's some transition going on in that business. But if you could give us some help on what you're seeing for volume growth overall in the plan, that would be helpful.

我只是 - 我想在我們談論它時跟進工業業務。我只是好奇您對工業積壓的了解程度。只是，考慮到你現在對它的了解，2023 年是否有任何銷量增長的潛力，或者你是否知道你在長期的基礎上有某種可見性？然後，霍華德，也許你只是提到了什麼是看跌期權和接受？我知道該行業正在發生一些轉變。但是，如果您能就計劃中的整體銷量增長給我們一些幫助，那將很有幫助。

Yes, on the backlog question, this is Rodger, in Industrial. If you look at the fourth quarter, our capacity utilization across our paper business was in line with the published numbers of the industry. And as I said in my opening comments, we did take some lack of business downtime in our global paper system, more in Asia and Europe than the U.S., and some maintenance downtime to match market demand. And we're seeing that continue at about the same levels in January.

是的，關於積壓問題，我是工業部門的 Rodger。如果你看一下第四季度，我們造紙業務的產能利用率與行業公佈的數據一致。正如我在開場白中所說，我們確實在全球紙張系統中出現了一些業務停機時間，亞洲和歐洲的業務停機時間比美國多，以及一些維護停機時間以滿足市場需求。我們看到這種情況在 1 月份繼續保持在大致相同的水平。

As far as we can see, we're -- we think we've reached the bottom there and we're starting to see some slight change to that and move in the right direction. But again, in our guidance, we're projecting year-over-year down a couple of percentage points for industrial based on what we saw.

據我們所知，我們認為我們已經觸底，我們開始看到一些細微的變化，並朝著正確的方向前進。但同樣，在我們的指導中，根據我們所看到的情況，我們預計工業同比下降幾個百分點。

And if you remember, our first 2 quarters of 2022, we're down around 2% year-over-year. So the real deceleration happened in the second half of the year. We expect it to turn the other way. Our toughest volume quarter should be the first quarter, then we expect some recovery.

如果你還記得的話，我們在 2022 年的前兩個季度同比下降了約 2%。所以真正的減速發生在下半年。我們希望它轉向另一條路。我們最艱難的季度應該是第一季度，然後我們預計會有一些復甦。

Yes. I think what we're seeing around the world, it looks like we're at -- bouncing around at bottom, at least the first part of January. So expecting to see a bit of a turn. Cleve, can you explain deeper what you mean by transitions beyond what I shared earlier? I don't want to repeat what I shared on...

是的。我認為我們在世界各地看到的情況，看起來我們正處於 - 至少在 1 月上旬在底部反彈。所以期待看到一點轉折。 Cleve，你能更深入地解釋一下你所說的超越我之前分享的過渡的意思嗎？我不想重複我分享的...

I'm just wondering how much headwind you have coming out of containerboard and whether there are some other businesses that are growing. I was just wondering what that balance is. But if you can't share any more, that's fine.

我只是想知道您對箱板紙的逆風有多大，以及是否還有其他一些業務正在增長。我只是想知道這種平衡是什麼。但如果你不能再分享了，那也沒關係。

Yes. That's a good question, Cleve. So we definitely look at all the various end markets, and we do sell into a number of end markets and a number of kind of final end markets, and we've done a really deep analysis on where is it that URB or the product that's made or facilitated by that URB product ends up going.

是的。這是個好問題，克利夫。所以我們肯定會查看所有不同的終端市場，我們確實向許多終端市場和許多類型的最終終端市場銷售產品，我們已經對 URB 或產品在哪裡進行了非常深入的分析由該 URB 產品製造或促進的產品最終會繼續使用。

And it's a lot more -- I'd say, that those are much more consumer and stable end markets than you would anticipate with things like containerboard or tissue and towel in there in a meaningful way. And that's been a part of our strategy is to manage the mix.

而且它還有很多——我想說的是，這些是更多的消費者和穩定的終端市場，比你預期的更有意義，其中包括集裝箱紙板或紙巾和毛巾等東西。這一直是我們戰略的一部分，就是管理組合。

And one reason why we bought RTS, or in the process of buying RTS, and one reason why we like Skjern is because it gives us access to really utilize the utility and the sustainability profile of URB and new markets that we think have some final growth and long-term opportunity.

我們購買 RTS 或正在購買 RTS 的原因之一，也是我們喜歡 Skjern 的原因之一是因為它使我們能夠真正利用 URB 的實用性和可持續性以及我們認為最終會增長的新市場和長期機會。

So Cleve, that's one of the things that the team is working on now. We keep talking industrial, and it gets the connotation of its pure industrial. And when you really get into it, there's a huge consumer connection. And roughly 30%, I think I'm saying this correct, 30% of our URB ends up in trade sale tissue and towel sector, not -- you wouldn't define that as industrial.

所以 Cleve，這是團隊現在正在做的事情之一。我們一直在談論工業，它得到了它純工業的內涵。當你真正投入其中時，就會發現巨大的消費者聯繫。大約 30%，我想我說的是正確的，我們 URB 的 30% 最終進入貿易銷售組織和毛巾部門，而不是 - 你不會將其定義為工業。

So we owe it to you guys, and I know Lisa and the team were working on helping you guys better understand the true nature of cyclicality that would tie to an industrial type flow now.

所以我們欠你們，我知道 Lisa 和團隊正在努力幫助你們更好地理解週期性的真正本質，這與現在的工業流有關。

That makes a lot of sense. That's very helpful. So it sounds like maybe more stable -- driving towards a stable, less volatile run rates as we move forward.

這很有意義。這很有幫助。所以這聽起來可能更穩定——隨著我們前進，朝著穩定、波動較小的運行率邁進。

The strategic direction that we are continuing to focus on, yes.

我們繼續關注的戰略方向，是的。

And then I'm sorry if I missed it earlier, but I just sort of recapping at a higher level on the guidance. You talked about, sort of, I guess in 2 of the 3 segments, you get up to fasten up volumes. It sounds like price/cost is expected to be positive pretty broadly.

如果我之前錯過了，我很抱歉，但我只是在更高層次上回顧一下指南。你談到了，有點，我想在 3 個部分中的 2 個部分，你起床來加快音量。聽起來價格/成本預計將在相當廣泛的範圍內為正。

But ultimately, margins and earnings are falling a little bit year-over-year. So I'm just wondering if you could lay out just at the high level what the the negatives or what the headwinds are. I don't want to belabor the negative aspects of the guidance. But just so we know what the puts and takes are.

但最終，利潤率和收益同比略有下降。所以我只是想知道你是否可以在高層次上列出負面因素或逆風是什麼。我不想詳細說明指南的消極方面。但只是為了讓我們知道看跌期權和看跌期權是什麼。

Yes. I can give you that color, Cleve. So consumer volumes, really excited about the volumes this year. Mid-single-digit positive across the board, across the various businesses. All those businesses have great consumer-orient strategy.

是的。我可以給你那種顏色，克利夫。所以消費者數量，對今年的數量感到非常興奮。各個業務的全面中個位數正數。所有這些企業都有很好的以消費者為導向的戰略。

Price/cost in consumer is actually going to be meaningfully negative. And it's because of this metal price overlap that we talked about, the $0.54 from last year and then another carryover this year from the deflation that we're having in tinplate. So that will be actually a pretty meaningful negative price/cost. And then we're also anticipating that resin prices will kind of turn over in the year and that will provide some price cost headwind as well.

消費者的價格/成本實際上將顯著下降。這是因為我們談到的這種金屬價格重疊，去年的 0.54 美元，然後是今年馬口鐵通貨緊縮的另一個結轉。所以這實際上是一個非常有意義的負價格/成本。然後我們還預計樹脂價格將在今年有所回升，這也會帶來一些價格成本逆風。

So consumer will actually see relatively meaningful negative price costs, which is a big driver for the bridge between last 2022 to 2023. Industrial volumes, yes, we think they're going to be down low single digits. And price, as we've talked about, down kind of low single digits, but not in such a meaningful way that price cost will be a meaningful headwind for the year.

因此，消費者實際上會看到相對有意義的負價格成本，這是 2022 年到 2023 年之間橋樑的一個重要驅動力。工業量，是的，我們認為它們將下降到低個位數。正如我們所討論的那樣，價格下降了一種低個位數，但並不是以一種有意義的方式，以至於價格成本將成為今年有意義的逆風。

The other business, it's got so much diversity in it. What we really -- the way to really characterize that as normalizing end market trends and taking costs out of those businesses should result in some pretty meaningful operating profit improvement. And then there's just normal way headwind from nonoperating items like depreciation and amortization going up $32 million interest going up in kind of normalize into the statutory levels that we project that.

另一項業務，它有如此多的多樣性。我們真正的 - 真正將其描述為使終端市場趨勢正常化並從這些業務中剔除成本的方式應該會帶來一些非常有意義的營業利潤改善。然後，折舊和攤銷等非經營性項目的正常逆風上升了 3200 萬美元，利息上升到我們預計的法定水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Weintraub 與 Seaport Research Partners 的合作。

So just to clarify, I think you've stated it. But so if the Metalpack overlay benefit was $0.54 last year, and you're looking at $0.20 to $0.30, so is that -- are you expecting like a negative $0.74 to $0.84 comparison from Metalpack overlay '23 versus '22? Is that the way to understand it? Or are we just giving up $0.20 to $0.30 of the $0.54.

所以澄清一下，我想你已經說過了。但是，如果去年 Metalpack 覆蓋層收益為 0.54 美元，而您正在尋找 0.20 美元至 0.30 美元，那麼您是否期望 Metalpack 覆蓋層 '23 與 '22 之間的負值比較為 0.74 美元至 0.84 美元？是這樣理解的嗎？或者我們只是放棄 0.54 美元中的 0.20 美元到 0.30 美元。

Yes. It's not just Metalpack because there was -- we did have a pretty meaningful tinplate business and RPC. And then, yes, so that -- but that is discretely the impact of the positive going away and the negative coming in.

是的。不僅僅是 Metalpack，因為我們確實擁有非常有意義的馬口鐵業務和 RPC。然後，是的，所以——但這是積極因素消失和消極因素進來的離散影響。

Got it. So -- so that $6.48, we can actually back off as we're bridging to the guidance, we can back off $0.74 to $0.84. And so that's -- as you said, that's a very big part of the seeming bridge. I'm getting that right.

知道了。所以 - 所以 - 所以 6.48 美元，我們實際上可以退回，因為我們正在接近指導，我們可以退回 0.74 美元到 0.84 美元。因此，正如您所說，這是看似橋樑的很大一部分。我沒看錯。

When we normalize it, I don't think that, that I think that there's opportunity there from normal operating conditions versus just kind of taking it away and saying that was all onetime.

當我們將其正常化時，我不認為，我認為正常操作條件下有機會，而不是只是把它拿走並說那是一次性的。

Presumably -- well, would we just add back the $0.20 to $0.30 to get to normal? Or is there something above than or different from that?

大概——好吧，我們是否可以將 0.20 美元加回到 0.30 美元以恢復正常？或者有什麼高於或不同的東西嗎？

Yes. I don't think we've modeled it that finally, but we definitely have a lot of productivity in that business.

是的。我不認為我們最終已經模擬了它，但我們在該業務中肯定有很多生產力。

Okay. And then I guess the other elements of the -- and thanks for the bridge and the last question. And I guess, M&A with RTS it, maybe that's not so big. But how impactful M&A and self-help as we're thinking about the bridge, is that in the calculation of what you think '23 will be versus '22?

好的。然後我猜想的其他元素 - 感謝橋樑和最後一個問題。而且我猜想，與 RTS 的併購可能不是那麼大。但是，在我們考慮橋樑時，併購和自助的影響力有多大，是在計算您認為 23 年與 22 年的對比時？

Yes. RTS is not in our forward-looking numbers at this point in time. And as I think Rodger said, maybe Rob earlier, that we hope now that closed by midyear, second half of the year. But we haven't built that in. Only Skjern, of course, closed late last year, and it's nominal.

是的。 RTS 目前不在我們的前瞻性數字中。正如我認為 Rodger 所說的那樣，也許 Rob 早些時候說過，我們現在希望在今年下半年的年中結束。但我們還沒有建立它。當然，只有 Skjern 去年年底關閉了，而且它是名義上的。

Okay, super. That is helpful. And I guess one last try and understand the sensitivity. But on the URB, can you share with -- are the contracts still tied directly or indirectly to indexes? Or is that not even how your product is getting priced anymore?

好的，超級。這很有幫助。我想最後一次嘗試並了解敏感性。但是在 URB 上，你能分享一下——合同是否仍然直接或間接地與指數掛鉤？或者這甚至不再是您的產品定價方式？

This is Rodger. Yes, if you look at -- in general, our total URB tons, about 60% or so is tied to the RISI, [TAM bending into] index 20% or so is still tied to OCC moves, and the final 20% is open market.

這是羅傑。是的，如果你看——總的來說，我們的 URB 總噸數，大約 60% 左右與 RISI 掛鉤，[TAM 彎曲] 指數 20% 左右仍然與 OCC 走勢掛鉤，最後的 20% 是公開市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Josephson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Adam Josephson。

I hope you're well. Rob, just a couple of clarification questions to start off, if you don't mind. The mid-single-digit consumer volume growth that you're expecting, is that organic?

我希望你很好。 Rob，如果你不介意的話，首先要回答幾個澄清問題。您期望的中個位數消費量增長是有機的嗎？

It just seems like I don't remember the last time consumer volumes were up mid-single digits in a year. I would think that would be just a multiyear high growth rate amid these pretty weak conditions. Just trying to understand that volume expectation a little bit better in consumer.

似乎我不記得上一次消費量在一年內達到中等個位數是什麼時候了。我認為在這些相當疲軟的條件下，這只是多年的高增長率。只是想更好地了解消費者對銷量的期望。

Adam, Howard let me handle at least the macro view of that, and I'll let Rob take over from there. But we've talked really over the last several years, and you can see it in our capital spend pool of how much new growth capital we've put towards our overall businesses that has been disproportionately weighted against the consumer side.

亞當、霍華德至少讓我處理宏觀觀點，我會讓羅布接手。但我們在過去幾年裡真的談過，你可以在我們的資本支出池中看到我們投入了多少新的增長資本給我們的整體業務，這些資本與消費者方面的權重不成比例。

So we've just got known -- I mean, we've got a launch that's going national right now on the new line in Chicago. It was actually, I was watching Squawk Box this morning, and the CFO of the company was touting the new products. So we've got a lot of things going on within our legacy businesses, that give us great confidence in terms of what we're forecasting.

所以我們剛剛知道 - 我的意思是，我們已經在芝加哥的新線路上推出了全國性的產品。實際上，我今天早上在看 Squawk Box，公司的 CFO 在吹捧新產品。因此，我們的傳統業務中發生了很多事情，這讓我們對我們的預測充滿信心。

And then you take the big hit we took in the end of the fourth quarter, and that 4% to 4.5% tangibly in terms of new growth opportunities, organic that we talked about in terms of how much capital we're deploying around the world, as well as a bit of softness towards the end of the fourth quarter that gives us great confidence there. So Rob, I don't...

然後你會看到我們在第四季度末遭受的巨大打擊，就新的增長機會而言，4% 到 4.5% 是有形的，我們談到了我們在全球部署的資本數量，以及第四季度末的一些疲軟讓我們在那裡充滿信心。所以羅布，我不...

Yes. Adam, it's obviously an incredible focus of the business to develop the right strategies and really invest behind them. And you saw that with the flexible business, which has mid-single-digit growth throughout last year. Even in December with the difficult market conditions that everybody saw.

是的。亞當，制定正確的戰略並真正投資於這些戰略顯然是企業的一個令人難以置信的重點。你從靈活的業務中看到了這一點，該業務在去年全年實現了中等個位數的增長。即使是在 12 月，市場環境也很艱難，大家都看到了。

But we've done this -- we've got new leadership in the global can business and a really unified strategy. I'd say most of the regions in the world are growing high single digits, and Asia is growing double digits in paper cans, and we're really excited about bringing innovation to that segment and enabling our customers to launch new products there.

但我們已經做到了——我們在全球罐頭業務中獲得了新的領導地位，並擁有真正統一的戰略。我想說世界上大多數地區都在以高個位數的速度增長，而亞洲的紙罐則以兩位數的速度增長，我們真的很高興能為該領域帶來創新，並使我們的客戶能夠在那裡推出新產品。

Plastics is another area that really have -- we've invested behind and they've started to really grow. So each one of those businesses have mid-single-digit growth prospects. And we're anticipating that, that will come through this year.

塑料是另一個真正擁有的領域——我們已經投資，它們已經開始真正增長。因此，這些業務中的每一項都有中個位數的增長前景。我們預計，這將在今年實現。

Wow, okay. And just to be clear, for the total company, Rob, what is roughly, what is your volume expectation for the year? I assume you're assuming up something even with industrial being down?

哇，好吧。需要明確的是，對於整個公司而言，Rob，您對今年的銷量預期大致是多少？我假設你在假設一些事情，即使工業正在衰退？

Yes, up 1% to 2%.

是的，上漲 1% 到 2%。

1% to 2%. Okay, and one other clarification, Rob. On the working capital, you said that you're expecting a meaningful benefit. Can you be any more specific than that?

1% 到 2%。好的，還有另一個澄清，Rob。關於營運資金，您說您期望獲得有意義的收益。你能比這更具體嗎？

Well, I think that we're targeting at least $100 million of improvement and mainly through inventory management.

嗯，我認為我們的目標是至少 1 億美元的改進，主要是通過庫存管理。

Got it, lower inventories. Okay. Howard, just -- you expressed, I think, some frustration about just some of the questions you're getting. And I guess, from our seat, most -- really all paper-based packagers had historic price/cost benefits last year for reasons you're well aware of and many experienced historic margin expansion, as did you.

知道了，降低庫存。好的。霍華德，我認為你表達了對你收到的一些問題的失望。我想，從我們的席位來看，大多數——實際上所有紙質包裝商去年都有歷史性的價格/成本優勢，原因你很清楚，而且許多人都經歷了歷史性的利潤擴張，你也是。

And so it's hard for us just on the outside to parse out the rising tide lifting all boats versus these company-specific operational initiatives that you have. So is there any help -- more help you can give us in terms of parsing those 2 out and understanding how that -- how you're thinking that will shake out this year and thereafter, for that matter?

因此，我們很難從外部分析出提升所有船隻的漲潮與您擁有的這些公司特定的運營計劃。那麼，是否有任何幫助 - 在解析這兩個方面並了解如何 - 你認為今年及以後將如何擺脫困境方面，您可以為我們提供更多幫助？

First, Adam, I deeply apologize you felt like I was frustrated. I look forward to these calls like you have no idea each quarter and our subsequent meetings within the quarter. But it does become frustrating when -- and I'm sorry, again, yes, the dissertation as you may say.

首先，亞當，我深表歉意，讓你覺得我很沮喪。我期待著這些電話，就像你不知道每個季度以及我們在該季度內的後續會議一樣。但它確實變得令人沮喪——我再次抱歉，是的，正如你所說的論文。

But again, going back not too many years ago, 50% of this company was a paper industrial company. It's now in the 30%, 35% range. And that is a tail end in and of itself. I can't answer your question specifically other to say is that if there is a frustration, the peanut butter spread of you're a paper company is a paper company is a paper company, that's trying to give you guys a little bit more color in terms of how we're looking at our segment within the paper industry and how we're doing the things to take away as much of the volatility that we historically have had through those self-help actions that I described.

但同樣，回到不久前，這家公司 50% 的股份是一家造紙工業公司。它現在處於 30%、35% 的範圍內。這本身就是一個尾端。我不能具體回答你的問題，我想說的是，如果有挫敗感，你是一家紙業公司的花生醬傳播是一家紙業公司是一家紙業公司，那是想給你們更多色彩就我們如何看待造紙行業中的細分市場以及我們如何採取措施消除我們過去通過我描述的那些自助行動所經歷的波動而言。

So all in -- inclusive, as I said, we're expecting to see price moderation. We're expected to see cost inflation. OCC cannot stay where it is forever. But we're -- we've taken actions over many years to reduce our exposure, be it from ultimate price to our controlling productivity, et cetera. So I'm backing down a bit, Adam, so...

因此，總而言之，正如我所說，我們預計價格會適度。我們預計會看到成本通脹。 OCC 不能永遠留在原地。但是我們——多年來我們已經採取行動來減少我們的風險敞口，無論是從最終價格到我們的控制生產力，等等。所以我讓步了一點，亞當，所以……

No, I just -- it's helpful to hear you. Because again, it really is hard for us to know how much of rising tide lifting all boats situation this is, because we just -- we obviously don't have the visibility that you do.

不，我只是 - 聽到你的聲音很有幫助。因為再一次，我們真的很難知道這是多少漲潮提升了所有船隻的情況，因為我們只是 - 我們顯然沒有你那樣的能見度。

Just the last thing, Rob, just back to the volume for one moment, if you don't mind. Compared to the 1% to 2% up to the year, what are your expectations for the first quarter? Just I'm trying to understand how back half weighted that expected volume growth is.

最後一件事，Rob，如果你不介意的話，請暫時回到音量上。相對於全年1%到2%，您對一季度有何預期？我只是想了解預期銷量增長的後半權重是多少。

Yes, that's a good question. So quarter-to-quarter, I'd say consumer volume growth is coming through now on a year-over-year basis and sequentially for industrial. We're kind of -- we're probably going to be flat sequentially with some back-end improvement, and we've modeled in our core, our base scenario for that business is that we're going to see kind of a flat recession or a soft landing.

是的，這是個好問題。因此，按季度來看，我想說的是，消費者數量的增長現在是按年同比增長的，工業上也是如此。我們有點 - 我們可能會通過一些後端改進來連續持平，並且我們已經在我們的核心中建模，我們對該業務的基本情景是我們將看到一種持平經濟衰退或軟著陸。

And then some recovery in the second half of the year, which we think is the consensus from those sources. And then the other businesses are expected to -- and we're seeing kind of a good start to the year that will flow through the full year.

然後在今年下半年出現一些復甦，我們認為這是這些消息來源的共識。然後其他業務預計會 - 我們看到今年的良好開端將貫穿全年。

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ghansham Panjabi 與 Baird 的對話。

This is Matt Krueger sitting in for Ghansham. So you highlighted customer inventory de-stocking on the consumer side of the business late into the fourth quarter. But it doesn't sound like there's any expectation for a lingering impact or carryover in the first quarter.

這是 Matt Krueger 代替 Ghansham。因此，您強調了第四季度末業務消費者方面的客戶庫存去庫存化。但聽起來似乎沒有人期望第一季度會產生揮之不去的影響或結轉。

Are you seeing real-time improvement here already? And it seems like a quick inventory de-stock cycle. Can you just talk through some of the dynamics that you've seen in that business and why the confidence on such a quick improvement in the first quarter here?

您是否已經在這裡看到實時改進？這似乎是一個快速的庫存去庫存週期。您能否談談您在該業務中看到的一些動態，以及為什麼對第一季度如此快速的改善充滿信心？

Yes, this is Rod. I don't know if I'll even describe it as a quick improvement. But as I think Rob has already said, if you look at our rigid paper can business, globally, we're seeing strength as we head into January. A lot of it is coming from the investments that we've made and capacity expansions and some new products that are being introduced.

是的，這是羅德。我不知道我是否會把它描述為一個快速的改進。但正如我認為 Rob 已經說過的那樣，如果你看看我們在全球範圍內的剛性紙罐業務，我們會在進入 1 月份時看到實力。其中很多來自我們所做的投資和產能擴張以及正在推出的一些新產品。

So the paper can business looks up for the first quarter and what we see after 1 month is meeting expectations. Flexibles also, just like the fourth quarter, continues the strong growth. We expect another strong year from flexible. Their volumes coming in. They're winning putting new products into the marketplace, and we're seeing that, that's additive in the first quarter.

因此，第一季度的紙罐業務有所好轉，一個月後我們看到的情況符合預期。柔性材料也與第四季度一樣，繼續強勁增長。我們期待靈活的又一個強勁的一年。他們的數量正在增加。他們正在將新產品推向市場，我們看到了這一點，這是第一季度的附加值。

Metal cans, we didn't own the metal can business in the first quarter last -- in January of last year, but we have seen recovery. Our food can, metal food can business is strong. So in that case, we assume that was just inventory reductions at the end of the last year.

金屬罐，去年第一季度我們沒有擁有金屬罐業務——去年 1 月，但我們已經看到了復甦。我們的食品罐，金屬食品罐生意興隆。因此，在那種情況下，我們假設這只是去年年底的庫存減少。

If you look at aerosol last year, we're somewhat heavily weighted to a couple of segments like disinfectants, spray paints, that built up inventory through COVID and they worked that off last year. So we're seeing some recovery there as well.

如果你看看去年的氣霧劑，我們在消毒劑、噴漆等幾個細分市場上的權重有點高，這些細分市場通過 COVID 建立了庫存，而他們去年就把這些庫存減掉了。所以我們也看到了一些復甦。

So again, the only exception is our primary store plastics business, with fresh fruits and vegetables continues to be very soft. Other than that, we've seen a nice start in consumer to the year from a volume standpoint.

因此，唯一的例外是我們的主要商店塑料業務，新鮮水果和蔬菜仍然非常柔軟。除此之外，從銷量的角度來看，我們今年的消費者開局不錯。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then switching over to the cost side of things. What do you expect from cost inflation overall for 2023? What do you expect from cost inflation for the raw material basket specifically? And then can you talk through some of the key constituents and the dynamics there for the upcoming year?

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。然後切換到事物的成本方面。您對 2023 年的整體成本通脹有何預期？您對原材料籃子的成本上漲有何具體期望？然後你能談談來年的一些關鍵成分和動態嗎？

Yes. I mean we have our base case assumptions for what we think is going to happen. For cost, I can tell you kind of discretely with a couple segments. I mean resin, we're anticipating that down with the front-end orientation really kind of driven by a broad basket that we buy. It's a meaningfully broad basket that we buy, we anticipate that's going to be down high single digits to double digits.

是的。我的意思是我們對我們認為將要發生的事情有我們的基本情況假設。對於成本，我可以通過幾個部分謹慎地告訴你。我的意思是樹脂，我們預計前端方向確實會受到我們購買的廣泛籃子的驅動。這是我們購買的一個有意義的廣泛籃子，我們預計它將從高個位數下降到兩位數。

OCC, obviously less important than it has historically been because it's not really driving price. But as a cost factor we talked about kind of the meaningful deflation that we saw at the end of last year. We think that, that will somewhat recover just to a normal level because the handling cost around OCC is probably $60 to $80 a ton. And so we think that it has to go up to that kind of level in order to just have some stasis.

OCC，顯然不如歷史上重要，因為它並不是真正推動價格的因素。但作為成本因素，我們談到了去年年底出現的有意義的通貨緊縮。我們認為，這將稍微恢復到正常水平，因為 OCC 附近的處理成本可能為每噸 60 至 80 美元。所以我們認為它必須上升到那種水平才能有一些停滯。

Otherwise, things that -- you should know is just employee, variable labor has definitely gone up, and we're anticipating it to go up. And that will be an inflation headwind through the year. Other kind of costs like fixed and depreciation will also be going up.

否則，你應該知道的只是僱員，可變勞動力肯定上升了，我們預計它會上升。這將是全年的通貨膨脹逆風。固定和折舊等其他類型的成本也將上升。

Got it. So what is that net to for the overall inflation budget for Sonoco?

知道了。那麼 Sonoco 的整體通脹預算淨值是多少？

Yes. We don't -- I mean, we look at kind of business by business and we also measure it against kind of where the price and the ability to get recovery on productivity is. So we don't have a discrete number that I have off the top of my head, but we can definitely follow up with you.

是的。我們不——我的意思是，我們逐個業務地看業務，我們還根據價格和恢復生產力的能力來衡量它。所以我們沒有一個離散的數字，但我絕對可以跟進你。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

Just a couple of follow-ups. I guess on the Industrial segment and the volume guidance for industrial volumes, down low single digits for the full year. Apologies if I missed this, but is there a specific view on volumes for 1Q on a year-over-year basis?

只是一些後續行動。我猜想在工業部門和工業銷量的銷量指導下，全年下降了低個位數。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是是否有關於第一季度同比銷量的具體觀點？

It's going to be flat sequentially, which is kind of about the same magnitude down as it was in the fourth quarter.

它將連續持平，與第四季度的降幅大致相同。

Okay, okay. And on RTS, there was some discussion of synergies. And I'm just wondering, you've been kind of a minority owner of that for a number of years. If you could talk to maybe sources of synergies or maybe just more broadly how you can run that business differently now that you're the full owner?

好吧好吧。在 RTS 上，有一些關於協同作用的討論。我只是想知道，多年來你一直是這家公司的少數股東。如果您可以談談協同效應的來源，或者更廣泛地說，既然您是完全所有者，那麼您如何以不同的方式經營該業務？

Well, so we're not the full owner yet. We're anticipating closing it in the second half of the year. We're excited about that project as much as we ever have and anticipate the synergies will be -- justify the transaction.

好吧，所以我們還不是完整的所有者。我們預計在今年下半年關閉它。我們對這個項目一如既往地感到興奮，並預計協同效應將是——證明交易的合理性。

Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

Howard, Roger, I'll leave the Plato references out, I guess. But just from a philosophical standpoint, you guys did a really good job in 2022. You're able to kind of beat and raise over the course of the year.

霍華德，羅傑，我想我會把柏拉圖的參考資料放在一邊。但從哲學的角度來看，你們在 2022 年做得非常好。你們可以在這一年中擊敗並提高。

Given kind of the economic backdrop uncertainty and some of the headwinds that you're facing on tinplate, I guess, what some of us are trying to struggle with is why the aggressive, sort of, seemingly out of the gate, again when Q1 is a little bit below?

鑑於經濟背景的不確定性和馬口鐵面臨的一些不利因素，我想，我們中的一些人正在努力解決的問題是，為什麼當第一季度開始時，激進的、有點似乎又出局了下面一點？

And/or what gives you the confidence? I mean you've mentioned conversations with customers. But just from our vantage point, there's a lot of uncertainty, maybe. And then from a geographic perspective in Industrial, maybe there's a knock-on effect from China reopening, and that's why you're feeling better about the second half. Just anything from a geographic standpoint that you can talk about?

和/或什麼給了你信心？我的意思是你提到了與客戶的對話。但從我們的角度來看，也許存在很多不確定性。然後從工業的地理角度來看，中國重新開放可能會產生連鎖反應，這就是為什麼你對下半年感覺更好的原因。從地理角度來看，您可以談談任何事情嗎？

Sure, Gabe, it's Howard. I'm not but -- Rob answered the bulk of the question, just to say. Just so you understand, I mean, as we build our bottom-up budgets, we do a very, very thorough -- go through a very, very thorough process with all of our business units and understanding the puts and takes that they see in their individual businesses and their markets.

當然，Gabe，是 Howard。我不是 - Rob 回答了大部分問題，只是想說一下。只是想讓你明白，我的意思是，當我們建立自下而上的預算時，我們會做一個非常非常徹底的——與我們所有的業務部門一起進行一個非常非常徹底的過程，並理解他們在他們各自的業務和市場。

We stress test that, so that when we have these conversations and these forecasts, we -- based on what we know today, these all feel like very realistic targets for the coming years. So Rob may be able to get a little deeper into that, but this is not with your thumb and see which way the wind is blowing. I mean we put a lot of effort over the fourth quarter to -- and manage it almost up until the day of announcement of what we think from our team's perspective, what we're seeing from a macro perspective, and what our customers are telling us. So Rob, I don't know if you have more to add on that.

我們對此進行壓力測試，以便當我們進行這些對話和這些預測時，我們 - 根據我們今天所知道的，這些都是未來幾年非常現實的目標。所以 Rob 可能會更深入地了解它，但這不是用你的拇指，而是看風向。我的意思是我們在第四季度付出了很多努力 - 並且幾乎一直管理到宣布我們從團隊的角度思考的事情，我們從宏觀角度看到的事情以及我們的客戶所說的事情的那一天我們。 Rob，我不知道你是否還有更多要補充的。

Yes. We feel really good about the budget and the guide. We think that it's very balanced. We think that there's obviously opportunities that we go after every day, but there's certainly risks that we've seen in the last -- in the 2 to 3 years like we've never seen before.

是的。我們對預算和指南感到非常滿意。我們認為這是非常平衡的。我們認為，我們每天都在追求明顯的機會，但在過去的 2 到 3 年裡，我們肯定會看到前所未有的風險。

I'd say with regards to Q1 and then thinking about the full year, a big part of that really is this metal impact. And now when that -- that business has seen absolutely unusual inflation and now deflation, which just has really meaningful bottom line impact.

我會說關於第一季度，然後考慮全年，其中很大一部分確實是這種金屬影響。而現在——該企業經歷了絕對不尋常的通貨膨脹和現在的通貨緊縮，這對底線產生了真正有意義的影響。

And so as I said, Q1 in a total impact just from metal is going to be $0.50 to $0.60. And if you took that away, we would almost be at the 185 that we were at last year. So I think that Industrial certainly has some impact there, but we're anticipating kind of a good year from productivity and a good year from performance.

正如我所說，第一季度僅來自金屬的總影響將為 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元。如果你把它拿走，我們幾乎會達到去年的 185。因此，我認為工業肯定會在那裡產生一些影響，但我們預計今年會是生產力和績效的好年頭。

So rolling kind of those -- taking that metal price impact off and then rolling forward because we think that, that metal price impact is most acute in Q1, there was some lingering impacts in Q2, but then completely gone in Q3 and Q4, you can think about our year in that regard and get to the number that's in a pretty, pretty straight line.

所以滾動那些 - 消除金屬價格影響然後向前滾動，因為我們認為，金屬價格影響在第一季度最為嚴重，第二季度有一些揮之不去的影響，但在第三季度和第四季度完全消失了，你可以在這方面考慮我們的一年，並得出非常非常直線的數字。

Yes. And I think just finally, Gabe, Slide 14, I spoke to at the end of my prepared remarks. I mean that's the point here is that we are on the appropriate trajectory without onetime benefits. An unbelievable trajectory without the onetime benefits.

是的。我想最後，Gabe，幻燈片 14，我在準備好的發言結束時談到了。我的意思是，這裡的重點是我們正處於正確的軌道上，沒有一次性的好處。沒有一次性好處的令人難以置信的軌跡。

And -- so look, I won't belabor the point. We're really bullish about the long term of the company and the action of the global teams have been taking over the years that are getting us to this point.

而且 - 所以看，我不會強調這一點。我們真的很看好公司的長遠發展，全球團隊多年來一直在採取行動，使我們走到了這一步。

Understood. All right. And one last one. I don't think we mentioned it or has been mentioned, CapEx being $325 million to $375 million. I thought we were sort of thinking about a step-down, post project horizon. So maybe you guys found some other discrete projects in there that you're spending on.

明白了。好的。還有最後一個。我認為我們沒有提到或已經提到過，資本支出為 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元。我以為我們正在考慮一個逐步的、項目後的視野。所以也許你們在那裡發現了一些您正在花費的其他離散項目。

Yes. It's a big part of our strategy. We've been really focused on trying to identify as many good projects as we could. And we've got -- we were in a really good position right now where we've got so many good projects that we're really managing it, and really identifying the best projects and the ones that fit our strategy the best.

是的。這是我們戰略的重要組成部分。我們一直專注於嘗試盡可能多地確定好項目。我們已經 - 我們現在處於一個非常好的位置，我們有很多好的項目，我們真的在管理它，並真正確定最好的項目和最適合我們戰略的項目。

So I'd say that to reflect that number as a reflection of that. It's also a reflection of us just being a bigger company than we've ever been before. And so as a percent of sales, it's still kind of in line with what we've been targeting. And it's also, as a percent of sales, a way for us to kind of continually ratchet up what we call value-enhancing projects as a component of that spend so that we're getting better and better ROI.

所以我會說這個數字反映了這一點。這也反映出我們正在成為一家比以往任何時候都更大的公司。因此，作為銷售額的百分比，它仍然符合我們的目標。而且，作為銷售額的百分比，它也是我們不斷提高我們所謂的增值項目作為支出的一部分的一種方式，以便我們獲得越來越好的投資回報率。

Our next question is a follow-up from Adam Josephson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題是來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Adam Josephson 的跟進。

Howard, just one follow-up. George asked a question about what you're seeing in center of the store in terms of plastic versus paperboard. Any shifts you're seeing from one substrate to the other, given that you're uniquely positioned to answer that question. Can you -- forgive me if you answered it, and I just -- I didn't hear it, but can you address that question?

霍華德，只有一個跟進。喬治問了一個關於你在商店中心看到的塑料與紙板的問題。考慮到您處於獨特的位置來回答該問題，您看到的從一種基質到另一種基質的任何轉變。如果你回答了，你能不能——請原諒我，我只是——我沒有聽到，但你能解決這個問題嗎？

Sure, Adam. It's really where it resonates, paper versus plastic, and the beachhead right now is really in Europe. And we are seeing a lot of opportunities. We're commercializing where once a product was on a plastic container is now coming to one of our all-paper containers.

當然，亞當。這真的是它引起共鳴的地方，紙與塑料，而現在的灘頭陣地確實在歐洲。我們看到了很多機會。我們正在商業化，產品曾經裝在塑料容器上，現在正在裝在我們的全紙容器中。

It's -- we're just now rolling out the all-paper solutions that we've developed internally as well as to our acquisition of Can Packaging several years ago, just that's COVID hit. And so we've got some assets coming into North America.

它是——我們現在剛剛推出我們內部開發的全紙解決方案，以及幾年前我們收購 Can Packaging 的解決方案，這就是 COVID 的打擊。所以我們有一些資產進入北美。

We just don't have the same level of pull here in the U.S. Certainly, there's focus and attention on the CPGs that Europe, it's almost a mandate. And how quickly can you get us out of substrates such as plastic for flexibles into an all paper or mostly papers products.

我們只是在美國沒有同等水平的吸引力。當然，歐洲對 CPG 的關注和關注，這幾乎是一項強制要求。你能多快讓我們從塑料等基材中脫穎而出，轉變為全紙或大部分紙製品。

So our expectation is that we'll continue to build on a more enhanced basis here in the United States. We're seeing it in Asia and South America, almost to the equivalent of the situation in Europe.

因此，我們的期望是我們將繼續在美國這裡建立更強大的基礎。我們在亞洲和南美洲看到它，幾乎與歐洲的情況相當。

I appreciate it. Just one -- because I read, I think, that the EC was classifying any paperboard packaging with poly coating as technically a single-use plastic, and that was limiting the appeal at least to some CPGs in Europe. Any thoughts on that issue in Europe and the States for that matter?

我很感激。只有一個——因為我讀到，我認為，EC 將任何帶有聚乙烯塗層的紙板包裝在技術上歸類為一次性塑料，這至少限制了歐洲某些 CPG 的吸引力。歐洲和美國對這個問題有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I don't know if I have a good answer for that because it's a moving target, and it's by member country in the EC. But barriers are required, and we've been really focused on paper content percentages.

是的。我不知道我是否對此有一個很好的答案，因為它是一個移動的目標，而且是由 EC 的成員國決定的。但障礙是必需的，我們一直非常關注紙張含量百分比。

And so we've got solutions out there in the market today that are 95% paper, that are able to be recycled on the paper strain. So different countries in the EU. There will be different states that take on different positions here. But the reality is you do need some types of barrier. And our focus, again, is to create solutions that have easily managed through the recycling systems and programs.

因此，我們今天在市場上提供了 95% 紙張的解決方案，這些解決方案能夠在紙張應變上回收。歐盟的不同國家。不同的州將在這裡採取不同的立場。但現實是你確實需要一些類型的障礙。同樣，我們的重點是創建可通過回收系統和程序輕鬆管理的解決方案。

So we've -- we're actually seeing a positive reaction in countries like the U.K., France, et cetera, with the products that we're putting out in the market today.

所以我們 - 我們實際上看到了英國、法國等國家對我們今天投放市場的產品的積極反應。

Our next follow-up comes from George Staphos with Bank of America.

我們的下一個跟進來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

Just given that, Adam, segue that for us. Just one quickly then. Why are you comfortable, or are you that North America won't see kind of a similar impact as you're seeing in Europe in terms of your customers trying to get out of plastic to go to paper?

鑑於此，亞當，請為我們繼續。那就快點吧。為什麼你感到舒服，或者你認為北美不會看到與你在歐洲看到的類似的影響，因為你的客戶試圖從塑料轉向紙張？

Is it from their research or yours, the consumer here cares less? Or is there more confidence about the sustainability merit of the plastic packages you and others are bringing to the market and maybe something else?

是他們的研究還是您的研究，這裡的消費者不太關心？還是對您和其他人推向市場的塑料包裝的可持續性優點更有信心，也許還有其他原因？

Yes, George, I'd say we're just going to wait and see here what -- if the U.S. in totality follows the trends in Europe. But that's just different. It's a totally different environment right now. And I don't know how to answer that.

是的，喬治，我想說的是，如果美國整體上跟隨歐洲的趨勢，我們將在這裡拭目以待。但那隻是不同。現在是完全不同的環境。我不知道該如何回答。

We are not seeing a lot of pressure right now. These are fit-for-purpose solutions. We've got a lot more space and opportunities to to either recycle and/or other options for -- [forward strains]. So I'd just say, just watch the space over time. Typically, we do end up following what's going on in Europe.

我們現在沒有看到很大的壓力。這些是適合用途的解決方案。我們有更多的空間和機會來回收和/或其他選擇——[前向菌株]。所以我只想說，隨著時間的推移觀察空間。通常，我們最終會關注歐洲發生的事情。

Yes. Hopefully, EPRs have a good benefit too.

是的。希望 EPR 也有很好的好處。

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Lisa Weeks for closing remarks.

我現在沒有進一步提問。我想將電話轉回給 Lisa Weeks 以作結束語。

Thank you all for joining our call today. And if you have any follow-up questions regarding our results, please let us know. We look forward to giving you an update on our Q1 results in May. And thank you all again, and have a wonderful day.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。如果您對我們的結果有任何後續問題，請告訴我們。我們期待在 5 月份向您提供我們第一季度業績的最新情況。再次感謝大家，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。