Emeren Group Ltd (SOL) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Hello ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for ReneSola Ltd's fourth quarter and full-year 2012 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I'll now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Tony Hung, ReneSola's Vice President of International Corporate Finance. Please proceed, Mr. Hung.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Hello everyone and welcome to ReneSola's fourth quarter and full-year 2012 earnings conference call. ReneSola's earnings results were released earlier today and are available on the Company's website, as well as on newswire services. You can follow along with today's call by downloading a short presentation available on the Company's website at www.renesola.com.

  • On the call today are Mr. Xianshou Li, our Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Henry Wang, our Chief Financial Officer; and Miss Julia Yang our IR Manager. Miss Yang will discuss ReneSola's business highlights and strategy and Mr. Wang will go through the financials and guidance. They will all be available to answer your questions during the q and a session.

  • Before we continue, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risk and uncertainties. As such, the Company's results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding these and other risks and uncertainties are included in the Company's Annual Report on Form 20F and other documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. ReneSola does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under applicable law.

  • Before I turn the call over to Miss Yang, please be reminded that unless otherwise noted, all figures mentioned during this conference call are in US dollars. It is now my pleasure to introduce Miss Julia Yang who will give an overview. Please go ahead, Miss Yang.

  • Julia Yang - IR Manager

  • Thank you for joining today's earnings call. If you have downloaded our presentation, please turn to page four for our Company highlights and see page 11 for a snapshot of our financial progress.

  • We performed well given the market conditions in the fourth quarter of 2012. We delivered record shipments last quarter, with a huge increase in shipments of our solar modules. Our rigorous sales and marketing efforts, along with numerous recent third party certifications led many new customers to recognize the high quality and the efficiency of our solar modules.

  • During the fourth quarter we saw increased module demands from several key markets, including China, which offers considerable potential. Increased module sales, which generate higher margins compared to our wafer sales, combined with our ability to continue driving down production cost, helped us achieve a positive gross margin of 3.3% in the fourth quarter.

  • At the same time, however, declining ASP resulting from the solar markets demand-supply imbalance, along with the competitive pricing, continued to have a significant impact on our business, and the industry. While we believe ASPs are beginning to stabilize, we will work hard to keep lowering our cost, improving operating efficiency and develop technologically advanced products that will generate new opportunity in the marketplace.

  • I will now quickly review our shipments. Total solar shipments in the fourth quarter of 2012 were 713.2 megawatts, an increase of 33.9% from 532.8 megawatts (sic - see presentation "532.6 megawatts"] in the third quarter. Wafer shipments increasing slightly quarter-over-quarter, while module shipments increased 120.6% to 320.5 megawatts as a result of seasonal strong year-end demand, particularly in China, and the increasing competitiveness of solar power as a power source.

  • Full-year 2012 shipments rose to a record 2.2 gigawatts, an increase of 70.6% from 1.3 gigawatts for the full year of 2011. The increase in shipments was as a result of strong demand for both our solar wafers and modules, especially our Virtus products.

  • ASPs dropped significantly throughout the year, with wafer ASPs dropping to $0.24 per watt and modular ASPs dropped to $0.63 per watt in the fourth quarter. This compares to $0.24 per watt and $0.67 per watt in the third quarter of 2012, and $0.36 per watt and $0.97 per watt in the fourth quarter of 2011. Despite our large increase in shipments the substantial decline in ASPs resulted in relatively flat full-year revenues.

  • In the fourth quarter, however, revenues were $306.5m up significantly from $218.2m in the third quarter due to a higher number of module shipments, especially from China, as well as a lower rate of decline in ASPs. Since the end of the year, wafer ASPs has risen slightly, and as noted, we believe module ASPs are stabilizing.

  • Please turn to your slide six for an update on our R&D efforts. ReneSola continued to invest in R&D in Q4 2012 to improve the technology behind its products and manufacturing our wafers. The Company's next generation Virtus A+++ wafer, with an average efficiencies of 17.6% to 17.8% are now in trial production.

  • Our modules, the Company's 60-cell 260 watt Virtus II modules with the efficiency of 16% are now also in trial production. And the Company's 60-cell 260 watt Virtus I modules are now in full production.

  • ReneSola is also currently developing a frame integrated second generation Micro Replus which is expected to reduce cost to ReneSola's customers by 20% compared to the first generation model. The Company also aims to provide its DC optimizer product in the second half of 2013, and continues to research small-scale storage systems with the plan to market such products by the mid-2013.

  • ReneSola is also developing a PV home kit solution with a plan to market by mid-2013.

  • Please turn to slide seven for an overview of our Module business results for the quarter. Our Module business performed exceptionally well in the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2012. We focused on building our Module business over the past year and boosted our sales and marketing efforts with hiring experienced and localized sales team. We also opened new offices in key markets like the United States, Japan and the APMEA region.

  • By leveraging our leading wafer technology, third party certified modules and on the ground international presence, we have built up the ReneSola brand and expanded our Module business substantially.

  • In 2012 we provided solar modules to customers in the United States, China, Greece, Australia, India, Germany and Italy. Our module shipments were up 120.6% sequentially in the fourth quarter and up 153.9% year-over-year. Nearly all of our fourth quarter shipments were Virtus modules, up approximately 215.1% quarter-over-quarter.

  • In the first quarter of 2013, we expect to increase our module shipments to a range of 280 megawatts to 300 megawatts. Although the overall market remains over-supplied, we are operating at 100% capacity as we continue to win new business.

  • For the full year of 2013 we expect our total solar module shipments increase to a range of 1.4 gigawatts to 1.6 gigawatts. We will not expand our solar module capacity, but may instead outsource some production to third parties under ReneSola's supervision and brand and in compliance with localization rules in some jurisdictions.

  • Our module processing cost decreased in the fourth quarter to $0.60 per watt compared to $0.65 per watt in the third quarter. In combination with low ASPs, this resulted in a gross margin of approximately 4.7% of our Module business, up from approximately 1% in the third quarter.

  • In the first quarter of 2013 we expect our total solar module production costs to increase to approximately $0.50 per watt -- $0.55 per watt. We expect to continue to drive down costs and deliver similar or improved margin for our Module business going forward.

  • Please turn to your slide eight for an overview of our Wafer business results for this quarter. Although ASPs have weakened our Wafer business margins, we continue to lead the industry in terms of wafer technology and processing cost. In the fourth quarter, wafer processing cost decreased to $0.12 per watt, down from $0.15 per watt in the third quarter of 2012 as a result of the improvements in our manufacturing methods, as well as reduction in material costs.

  • We expect to lower wafer processing costs of our Virtus A++ manufacturing facility to $0.11 per watt by the end of the first quarter. With ASPs now rising slightly, we expect to improve our margin for our Wafer business to become more profitable once polysilicon price stabilize. We expect our wafer capacity to remain constant at 2 gigawatts.

  • Please turn to your page nine for an update of our polysilicon production. We only produced about 323 metric tonne of polysilicon in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a result of the temporary halt of polysilicon production at the end of October 2012 to upgrade our facilities and equipment as well as to integrate phase II polysilicon production with phase I. Combined production for the newly integrated polysilicon plant is now in trial production.

  • Our total production -- polysilicon production capacity is currently 10,000 metric tonnes. Polysilicon production cost was approximately $23.5 per kilogram at the end of October 2012 compared to approximately US dollar to $23.57 per kilogram at the end of Q3 2012. We expect our polysilicon production cost to be approximately $18 per kilogram by the end of the second quarter of 2013.

  • We look forward to restarting our polysilicon production as it plays an important role in reducing our overall wafer production cost and shielding us from the market brutality.

  • I will now like to turn the call over to Henry who will discuss our financial results for the quarter.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Thanks Julie. Please turn to slide 11 through 14 for a look at our financial progress. As Julie mentioned earlier, we were able to deliver a positive gross margin of 3.3% in the fourth quarter largely due to an increase of sales of solar modules as a percentage of our revenue.

  • At the same time, we continued to drive down our production costs for both modules and wafers to levels that we are among the lowest in the industry. Our ability to constantly lower costs has allowed us to minimize margin loss brought about by the decline in ASPs and they will better position -- better position us once marketing conditions stabilize.

  • I will now review details of our financial results. Financial revenues for the fourth quarter of 2012 were $306.5m exceeding our guidance and representing a sequential increase of 40.5% from $218.2m, despite a decrease in the ASPs, our solar wafers and the modules from $0.28 per watt and $0.67 per watt respectively to $0.24 per watt and $0.63 per watt respectively as a result of a significant increase in solar module shipments, particularly to China.

  • Gross profit for the first quarter of 2012 was $10.3m compared to a gross loss of $39.2m in the third quarter, primarily due to increased sales of our solar modules, which have higher margin than those of our Wafer business, and due to the inventory write-down of $31.6m recorded in quarter three 2012 to reflect the decline in the price of solar wafers and polysilicon.

  • For full year 2012 gross loss was $35.7m compared to a gross profit of $19.61m in 2011. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to the declines in solar wafer and module ASPs, as well as inventory write-down to reflect the significant drop in the prices for polysilicon, wafers and modules. Gross profit for the whole year, 2012, would have been $23.7m without the impact of the inventory write-down.

  • Gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 3.3% compared to a gross margin of negative 18% in the third quarter. Full-year 2012 gross profit margin was negative 3.7% compared to a gross margin of 9.7% in 2011.

  • Operating loss for fourth quarter 2012 was $23.8m compared to an operating loss of $82.8m in the third quarter. Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $34m, down 20% from $43.6m in the third quarter. The sequential decreases in operating expenses was primarily due to the impairment loss of long-lived assets of $6.1m recorded in the third quarter for the discontinuation of 200 megawatts restoring wafer furnace back into capacity. And a goodwill impairment charge of $5.8m recorded in the third quarter for our Solar Cell and Module business.

  • Acquisition in 2009 also defined intangible assets impairment loss are $3.8m to reflect the decrease in the value of business license for our Sichuan polysilicon plant.

  • Under (inaudible) and normalizing our research and development expenses after we had decreased our R&D expenses in Q3 2012 to save the costs. Operating expenses represented 11.1% of total revenues in quarter four compared to 20% in the third quarter.

  • Full-year operating loss was $179m compared to an operating income of $11.5m in 2011. Full-year operating expenses were $143.3m about a 70% increase from $84.5m in 2011. The increase in operating expenses was primarily due to an increase in sales and marketing expenses in conjunction with the expansion of our business outside of China.

  • An increase in general and administrative expenses was a result of an increased fixed cost associated with the expansion of our Module business and a one-time gain of $13.5m recorded in 2011 for the forfeiture of a prepaid deposit due to the breach of our solar wafer contract by one of our plants.

  • As well as the impairment loss on long-lived assets of $6.4m and a goodwill impairment charge of $6.2m in 2012. Operating expense represented 14.8% of the total revenue in 2012 compared to 8.6% in 2011.

  • Operating margin for fourth quarter of 2012 was negative 7.8% compared to an operating margin of negative 30.80% in the second quarter. Full-year operating margin was negative 18.5% compared to an operating margin of 1.2% in 2011.

  • Net loss attributable to holders of ordinary shares for fourth quarter of 2012 was $49.8m compared to a net loss of $78.6m in the second quarter. This represents basic and a diluted loss per share of $0.29 and a basic diluted loss per ADS of [$0.58]. This loss was impacted by $16.7m impairment of deferred tax assets, if not we had the impact of deferred tax assets impairment, goodwill impairment and business license impairment, net loss our fourth quarter would have been $29.8m.

  • Net loss attributable to share -- to holders of ordinary shares for the whole year 2012 was $203.4m compared to a net income of $0.3m in 2011. This represents basic and a diluted loss per share of $1.20 and a basic and a diluted loss per ADS of $2.40. Net loss attributable to holders of ordinary shares of 2012 would have been $102.5m if not for the impact of the inventory write-down, impairment and the temporary halt of our Sichuan polysilicon plant.

  • On the balance sheet, at the end of the year 2012 we had an overall debt to $819.2m excluding $111.6m due in convertible notes. Total bank borrowings decreased by about $60m sequentially at the end of the fourth quarter.

  • Our net cash and cash equivalent position, plus restrictive cash was $268.1m at the end of the fourth quarter compared to $335.2m at the end of the second quarter.

  • Our net cash flow in the fourth quarter from operating activities was $25.8m as compared to a negative cash flow of $46m in Q3 2012. We expected to spend about $60m this year to complete our polysilicon production capacity, as we have to maintain and upgrade our existing business.

  • Please turn to our guidance which can be found on page 15. For the first quarter 2013 we expect the total solar and wafer and module shipments to be in the range of 260 megawatts to 280 megawatts [sic - see presentation "660 to 680 megawatts"] with solar module shipments expected to be in the range of 280 megawatts to 300 megawatts.

  • Revenues are expected to be in the range of $260m to $270m and the gross margin is expected to be positive.

  • For the full-year 2013 we expect the total solar wafer and module shipments to be in the range of 2.7 gigawatts to 2.9 gigawatts, with solar module shipments expected to be in the range of 1.4 gigawatts to 1.6 gigawatts.

  • At this time we are happy to take your questions. Operator, please.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions). The first question comes from the line of Satya Kumar from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question now.

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • Hi, this is Brandon Heiken speaking on behalf of Satya Kumar. Thanks guys for taking the question. I was wondering if you could talk about your thoughts on cost reductions for the rest of the year. I know you guided the first quarter costs, but if you could talk about the rest of the year and what you think prices may do also for the rest of the year.

  • And then my second question is about your cash balance. It looks like it's down quite a bit in the fourth quarter and restricted cash is up quite a bit. I just wanted to check if everything's okay with your loan facilities and if you have any plans for raising capital or other capital allocation. Thank you.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • I guess Brandon, before we can answer your questions, obviously we can't talk about any capital raising plans per se. But, safe to say that we have the support of our local banks and we will work with our local banks here in China. Now, let me go ahead with your questions.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Yes, Brandon with regards to the costs, when we look at the overall situation, it seems that it really can't go that much lower. I think we very much hit the limit. So right now our non-poly processing costs are something like $0.44, $0.45 and that may very well be the limit of where it's at for the rest of the year.

  • In terms of the ASPs, as you well know, in recent months it's been pretty stable, has even gone up. And we think for full-year trend it might go up further.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Now, let me direct your second question to the team.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Okay, let me explain a little bit about our cash position. Actually, at the end of last quarter -- in the last quarter we retained about $60m back to the bank and there's -- and also, additionally, some CapEx payment in the last quarter. But we maintain a good relationship with our local banks and we can get -- we will still have some bank facility to be there. So if we need the money we can still get the as borrowings from the banks and they also give us great support of our business.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • I think Brandon, a little bit I'd like to add to Henry's comments, is that you'll probably also notice that in Q4 actually we were operating cash flow positive. And as a Company we consistently give out cash flow numbers. So we try to be very open and transparent about this. And the big picture is if you look at our overall numbers in the fourth quarter, cash wise, I think we're about EBITDA neutral, and again we've got operating cash flow. And I think depending upon on where poly and other things go, our trends may only improve.

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you guys.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your questions. The next questions come from the line of Philip Shen from Roth Capital. Please ask your question.

  • Matt Dolan - Analyst

  • Yes, hi guys. This is Matt on for Phil. He sends his regards, and thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to get a sense for guidance for 2013, maybe a little more granular here. I know you said 2.7 to 2.9 gigawatts. Where's most of the growth coming from for 2013?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Thanks Matt. I think in terms of the granularity, first, it might be worth pointing out how that breaks down between wafers and modules, so that may help with the modeling. But let me check with the team on your question.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Intrepreted) Yes, now in terms of modules then we'll get into wafers a little bit, we think that it's going to be very, very balanced growth overall for us. So something like 200 megawatts in both the US and Japan. So 200 megawatts each in those two countries, 100 megawatts or so in Australia, 200 megawatts out of India and then something like 500 megawatts out of all of Europe, and then for China, maybe something like 100. 200 megawatts, maybe some upside to that.

  • Tony Hung& And, let me check with the team on the wafers now.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) And for wafers, it will primarily be Korea, Taiwan and India, so it will actually be like last year.

  • Matt Dolan - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And, just one more if I may. We'd like to get a sense for what your normalized OpEx looks like in 2013. So could you kind of explore, where could overall OpEx come in in 2013, and also can we expect any additional impairment charges during the year?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • I think overall OpEx, and let me double check with Henry on this, per quarter I think a normal number would be under $35m, $30m to $35m. That's correct?

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Yes.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • So, I think in terms of our overall position that will probably be the norm going forward. In terms of the impairment charges, I think this is a -- perhaps a question for our auditors. But let me double-check with Henry as well on this. Basically, as long as the ASPs don't drop any more, as long as they stabilize, then the assets won't be impaired. And we're not going to have any more impairment or write-offs if the ASPs are constant, right?

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • No, yes.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • That's right. So, yes I think basically you can see from the ASPs what the likely impairment charges or write-offs would be, not just for us, but for everyone.

  • Matt Dolan - Analyst

  • Got it, great. That's it from me guys. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thanks for your questions. Your next question comes from the line of Tim Lam from Citigroup. Please ask your question now.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations on the strong shipments in the fourth quarter. My question is -- two questions from me. The first is a question about the increase in the shipments in modules. You mentioned about the 2013 target, but can you share some light on where the shipment demand is in for the fourth quarter 2012 and whether there will be some orders that have not been fulfilled what will be completed in the first quarter for some of these orders that were done in the fourth quarter? That's the first question.

  • And the second question is regarding your cost reduction. It looks like for both the wafer processing costs and module processing costs there was a significant reduction in fourth quarter. Could you highlight to us where -- what is causing that cost reduction and whether the Company has plans for some other technology upgrades on both the wafer production and module production? Thanks a lot.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Sure, I think in terms of your first question, and the second question I might need some additional clarity from our team. But in terms of your first question, in the fourth quarter, as we mentioned, a lot of demand came out of China, I think close to half on the module side. And, let me check with the team on the second part of your first question, whether there's any leftover orders from the fourth quarter.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Tim, I think you understood that, so there might be something like 50 or 100 megawatts of orders or thereabouts from the fourth quarter to add, if you will, now on the first quarter being executed.

  • Now, on your second question, let me just get a bit of a clarification. You're asking if we are looking at potentially other new technologies to reduce costs further?

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Well, I'm asking of the fourth quarter cost reductions, where the cost reduction came from in the fourth quarter, and also if the Company will see some other technology investment to help lower the cost of either the wafer or for modules?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Okay.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) I think Tim you understood that, but overall in terms of technology, in terms of the management, some of the operations we improved that significantly to change the wattage and also lower overall our non-processing cost.

  • You might also note that we have been moving to the Virtus A++ the next generation of wafer conversion technology and in our PowerPoint we also note that we're experimenting with Virtus A+++. So, hence that will lower the costs even further.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Sorry, there is a follow-up slightly on this. I'm asking specifically on the wafer processing costs because does it mean that you are cutting thinner wafers or are you finding different ways to do the wafer production in order to lower the costs sharply for wafer manufacturing?

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Okay, so Tim I think you understood that. It's actually not cutting it thinner; it's more the manufacturing technology and process, the Virtus A++ and in the future the Virtus A+++.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your questions. The next question comes from the line of Pranab Sharma from Daiwa Capital. Please ask your question.

  • Pranab Sharma - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Actually, I have a little bit follow-up on your Virtus A+++ wafer. On this product, do you need to invest on any new equipment? If so, how much will be your total investment could be to upgrade your 2 gigawatt capacity to say Virtus A+++ compatible?

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Actually, Mr. Li said that in terms of the technology, once it's okay, we'll definitely be upgrading all our multi-capacity. But in terms of the cost, it should be minimum. We should be able to keep it under control. It shouldn't exceed, say $10m.

  • Pranab Sharma - Analyst

  • So just from $10m you will be able to upgrade to almost like major capacity to Virtus A+++ compatible right?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Exactly. So, no new equipment. It's upgrading the existing equipment.

  • Pranab Sharma - Analyst

  • Very good. Okay. Next question is on your guidance. You have given 1.4 to 1.6 gigawatt for module shipment this year, 2013. Can you give a little bit of geographical breakdown, like where you have contracts and how much contract you have in which area?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Yes, I think we gave the geographic breakdown a little bit earlier. So it's 200 megawatts in the US and Japan each. Something like 100 megawatts in Australia, 200 or so in India, and 500 in -- out of Europe al together and then maybe 100 to 200 out of China, maybe there's some upside to that. But let me double-check with the team for you on your second question, whether or not we've got a lot of contracts otherwise in place.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) In terms of real contracts, maybe there aren't any long-term contracts, or shall we say, orders of that kind, but there are definitely a lot of orders. And actually, right now, we're completely sold out, until the end of June, so I think it's definitely looking very strong and we're feeling pretty confident about the numbers.

  • Pranab Sharma - Analyst

  • Got you. And my last question is on -- Tony, is on this, China is planning to cut some of their feed-in tariff (inaudible). After the news flow, have you seen any reactions from your customer like they're now delaying some of the order for China delivery, or any type of movement you have seen over the last few days?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Sure, let me check with the team on that.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Pranab, sorry, we might not be actually the best guys to talk about this as we've dealt with the Chinese market a little bit less. So overall perhaps we don't get as good a perspective on this. But, based on what Mr. Li has seen, we believe that actually, in fact, there's going to be rush orders, so similar to elsewhere in the world.

  • Pranab Sharma - Analyst

  • Okay, got you. Thank you. Have a good quarter ahead.

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your questions. (Operator Instructions). The next question comes from the line of Amy Song from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

  • Amy Song - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just have a follow-up question on pricing, maybe I missed this earlier. So, I think have a pretty good like visibility as you said, totally sold out up to June with pretty clear geographic coverage breakdown. So what is the ASP outlook you see from now? It seems like you only have 100 to 200 megawatts going to China, which is the lowest -- lowest pricing market. So you probably could give a pretty clear guidance of what the pricing is in the next few quarters, right?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Thanks for your question, Amy. Let me check with the team on that.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Amy, I think you understood that, but for the sake of everyone else on the call, so Q1 will probably be about the same as Q4, maybe a little bit lower. I think in terms of Q2 it might be $0.02 or $0.03 higher. After that, it's very, very uncertain, because of the counter-bailing duties out of Europe, so it's going to be fairly hard to say. Europe might become higher, but it's also safe to say that that market will come under different types of pressure.

  • Amy Song - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you. Okay.

  • The other question I have is regarding your cost structure, especially on the polysilicon side. It seems like you have sort of postponed guidance from last quarter, postponed to second quarter, ramp-up the full -- fully ramped up the capacity, cutting costs to $18 per kilowatt. So, can you breakdown by two -- between these two phase of capacity? Can you plan by plan what exactly the cash cost you see for phase I and phase II and the ramping up schedule. What should we expect? Is it three to six months term, or two or three month term for different plans. Can you talk about that?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Okay.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Amy, I think you understood that. So in terms of the phases, the entire integration work will make the two phases indistinguishable from each other. They'll be combined, and hence it will be $18 per kilogram once fully ramped up for both phases combined, which I think going forward maybe we'll just refer to as one phase or our polysilicon plant in Sichuan.

  • The cash cost will be under $15 and to get to the $18 and the $15 cash cost we figure it will take two to three months to ramp up. And the learning curve will be as long as that.

  • Amy Song - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you. One last question regarding some other smaller capacity. Post the Chinese New Year have you ever seen or more smaller capacity starting to be operating due to the strong flow that we see right now? And how do you view the polysilicon price under this scenario, maybe method despite the potential poly tariff outcome, just basically on a short-term basis. Can you give us some color on that?

  • Tony Hung - VP International Corporate Finance

  • Sure. Let me break your questions up into two questions.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (Interpreted) Okay, I think you understood that Amy. So on the first question that you had on the smaller capacity, we think there should be some actually coming back on line.

  • Okay, yes I think Amy you understood that, but for the sake of everyone else on the call, Mr. Li thinks that right now we've reached a temporary high at around $18 or $19. And at this point, given the nature of the Chinese counter-bailing duties on poly or rather the lack of specifics at this time, whether or not this will count towards, for example, poly imported for export, and exactly what form these polys will take, it's very, very difficult to say what will happen on the poly price.

  • Amy Song - Analyst

  • Okay. (Spoken in Chinese)

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your question. (Operator Instructions). Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect the lines.

  • Editor

  • Portions of this transcript that are noted Interpreted were interpreted on the conference call by an Interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the Company sponsoring this Event.