Emeren Group Ltd (SOL) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for ReneSola Limited third quarter 2012 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

  • I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Tony Hung, ReneSola's Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications. Please proceed, Mr. Hung.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to ReneSola's third quarter 2012 earnings conference call. ReneSola's third quarter 2012 earnings results were released earlier today, and are available on the Company's website, as well as on news wire services. You can follow along with today's call by downloading a short presentation available on the Company's website at www.renesola.com.

  • On the call today are Mr. Xianshou Li, our Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Henry Wang, our Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Li will discuss ReneSola's business highlights and strategy, and Mr. Wang will go through the financials and guidance. They will both be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session.

  • Before we continue, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, the Company's results may be materially different from the views expressed today.

  • Further information regarding these and other risks and uncertainties is included in the Company's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents filed with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. ReneSola does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under applicable law.

  • Before I turn the call over to Mr. Li, please be reminded that unless otherwise stated, all figures mentioned during this conference call are in US dollars.

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Xianshou Li, CEO of ReneSola. Mr. Li will give his remarks in Mandarin, and I will read the translation. Please go ahead, Mr. Li.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) Hello, and thank you for joining today's 2012 third quarter earnings call. If you have downloaded our presentation, please turn to slide 4 for our Company highlights.

  • Challenging market conditions persisted in the third quarter of 2012. The market's fast declining ASPs had a substantial impact on our gross margin, and we were forced to take a large write-down for inventory in the quarter. Despite the difficult macroenvironment, we continue to execute on our strategies of lowering cost, developing superior technology, and growing our Module business. In the third quarter, we delivered record total shipments, and also lowered costs significantly for our core Wafer business and supporting polysilicon production.

  • At the same time, our Module business has shown tremendous growth over the last year. We successfully leveraged our leading wafer technology to develop highly efficient solar modules that have attracted customers in key markets across the globe. We expect module shipments to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, over 75% quarter over quarter, as we continue to grow our Module business.

  • I will now quickly review our shipments. Please turn to slide 6 for a snapshot of our shipments and financial progress.

  • Total solar product shipments in the third quarter 2012 were a record 532.8 megawatts, an increase of 5.8% from 503.7 megawatts in the second quarter. Wafer shipments rose 12.6% quarter over quarter, primarily due to increased demand for our high-efficiency wafers from Asia Pacific customers. Module shipments decreased 9% due to seasonality, as the third quarter is typically slower than other quarters.

  • ASPs continued to decline in the third quarter, with wafer ASPs dropping to $0.28 per rod, and module ASPs dropping to $0.67 per rod compared to $0.31 per rod and $0.75 per rod in the second quarter. As a result, third quarter revenues were $218.2 million, down 6.4% from $233 million in the second quarter.

  • Please turn to slide 7 for an update on our research and development. Although we spent less on R&D in the third quarter to save on costs, it remained a central area of focus. During the quarter, we made progress with the development of our Virtus II products, which are currently in full production. Our Virtus II modules can now achieve an average efficiency of 15.7% and a 60-cell Virtus II module now produces an average of 255 watts.

  • Our proprietary in-house Virtus A++ manufacturing process which allows for the production of more distributed ingots with a greater percentage of high efficiency wafers is now producing wafers with non-silicon processing costs below $0.12 per watt, with a target of $0.11 per watt by the end of this year.

  • In the third quarter, our new micro inverter, Micro Replus, successfully completed its initial testing phase in the United States, Australia and Europe. Additionally, we began research on small scale storage systems, and an AC-OC optimizer, with the hopes of introducing these products to the market in the second half and towards the end of next year respectively.

  • We will continue to invest in R&D to advance the technology behind our products, and manufacturing, as well as capitalize on current market opportunities.

  • Please turn to slide 8 for an overview of our Module business results for the quarter.

  • We have placed enormous emphasis on building up our Module business this year, and successfully transformed the Company into a large-scale module supplier through our leading technology and our experienced, localized sales teams.

  • Our Module business has performed well in Europe and Australia, while at the same time, has capitalized on emerging opportunities in the United States and Australia. Year over year, our module shipments are up more than 330%. In the third quarter, module shipments were 145.3 megawatts, down slightly from 159.7 megawatts in the second quarter due to seasonality. 101.7 megawatts of these were Virtus modules, up approximately 34% quarter over quarter.

  • In the fourth quarter, however, we expect to increase our module shipments significantly to a range of 250 megawatts to 270 megawatts. Although the overall market remains oversupplied, we are operating at 100% capacity utilization as we continue to win new business.

  • We slightly decreased our module processing costs in the third quarter as compared to second quarter. In combination with the lower ASPs, this resulted in gross margin of approximately 1% of our Module business. We are confident, however, that we can continue to drive down costs and deliver improved margins for our Module business in the fourth quarter.

  • Please turn to slide 9 for an overview of our Wafer business results for the quarter.

  • We continue to be a leader in the wafer space, and our wafer processing cost is among the lowest in the industry. In the third quarter, wafer processing cost decreased to $0.15 per watt, our previous year-end goal, down from $0.17 per watt in the second quarter of 2012, as a result of improvements in our manufacturing methods, as well as a reduction in material costs. We now expect to further lower our wafer processing cost to $0.12 per watt by the end of this year. Our Wafer business will become more profitable once the polysilicon price stabilizes.

  • Please turn to slide 10 for an update on our polysilicon production.

  • In the third quarter, we produced approximately 1,176 metric tons of polysilicon, compared to 1,119 metric tons in the second quarter. Production costs were $23.57 per kilogram in the third quarter compared to $25.80 per kilogram in the second quarter. We expect our production costs to further decrease this year and reach $18 per kilogram by the end of the first quarter of 2013.

  • We now expect to complete Phase II of our polysilicon plant at the end of the first quarter of 2013, as opposed to the end of this year as previously announced, and this will expand our polysilicon production capacity to 10,000 metric tons.

  • At the beginning of November, we decided to temporarily halt polysilicon production to upgrade our facilities and equipment, as well as to integrate Phase I or Phase II.

  • Electricity prices in the area of our Sichuan plant have been relatively high in the fourth quarter, so we see this as an ideal time to make upgrades, actually saving money, compared to continuing production without the upgrades. We will complete the equipment installations in January 2013, and begin trial production accordingly.

  • Please turn to slide 11 for an update on our Systems and Project business.

  • Today, ReneSola has 40 megawatts of projects under construction in China, and 6 megawatts of projects under construction in Romania. China Development Bank has, in the past, indicated its support for our additional solar power projects. We will remain highly selective in how we choose power projects, and continue to focus on due diligence when evaluating project opportunities.

  • I will now turn the call over to Henry, who will discuss our financial results for the quarter.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Thanks, Mr. Li. Please turn to slides 13 through 16 for a look at our financial progress. As Mr. Li mentioned, our revenue and margins have been again impacted by declining solar wafer and module ASPs. The fast declining ASPs resulted in an inventory write-down of $31.6 million in the third quarter.

  • Our bottom line has further hurted by a bad debt provision impairment of long-lived assets and a goodwill impairment charge. Nevertheless, we continue to drive down costs to minimize the impact on our margins, and the provision as well, once macro conditions improve.

  • The healthier our balance sheet remains comparable to that of our peers, and with banking credit to solar companies, especially with regard to capacity, we believe we are in relatively good financial strength to withstand difficult marketing conditions and still grow our business.

  • Now let me run you through the details of our financial results.

  • Net revenues for the third quarter of 2012 were $218.2 million; in line with our guidance, and representing a sequential decrease of [6.4%], from $233 million, primarily due to a decrease in the ASPs of solar wafers and modules.

  • Gross loss for the third quarter of 2012 was $39.2 million compared to a gross profit of $1.3 million in the third quarter of 2012, primarily due to the inventory write-down of $31.6 million to reflect the large decline in the price of solar wafers and polysilicon.

  • Gross margin for the third quarter of 2012 was negative 18% compared to a gross margin of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2012. Gross margin, not including the inventory write-downs, would have been negative 3.5%.

  • Operating loss for the third quarter of 2012 was $82.8 million compared to an operating loss of $34.6 million in the second quarter. Total operating expenses for the third quarter were $43.6 million, up 21.2%, from $35.9 million in the same quarter.

  • The sequential increase in operating expenses was primarily due to an increase in sales and marketing expenses in conjunction with the expansion of our business outside of China, and expenses in general, and administrative expenses as a result of a $1.8 million bad debt provision for difficulty collecting receivables. An impairment loss on long-lived assets of $6.1 million related to 200 megawatts of mono wafer furnace production capacity we discontinued in year 2011. And what previously was classified as an asset held for sale and a goodwill impairment charge of $5.8 million related to the acquisition of our Solar Cell and Module business in year 2009, offset by a decrease of $5.6 million in research and development expenses in order to save costs.

  • Operating expenses represented 20% of total revenue in the third quarter of 2012, an increase from 15.4% in the second quarter of 2012.

  • Operating margin for the second quarter -- for the third quarter of 2012 was negative 38% compared to an operating margin of negative 14.9% in second quarter.

  • We recognized a tax benefit of $13.6 million for the third quarter of 2012 compared with a tax benefit of $16.3 million in the second quarter of 2012.

  • Net loss attributable to holders of ordinary shares for the third quarter of 2012 was $78.6 million compared to a net loss of $34.8 million for the third quarter of 2012. This represents basic and diluted loss per share of $0.46, and a basic and diluted loss per ADS of $0.91.

  • At this time, I'd like to point out that in light of the large decrease in our share price over past year, our Board of Directors have approved the repricing of our current employees' stock option exercise price adding $1.47 per ADS, which was the closed stock price of our ADS on August 8, 2012. We hope this repricing further will keep aiding our employees to help us build our business and deliver targeted results.

  • On the balance sheet; as of September 30, 2012, we have increased our overall debt to $850.3 million, excluding $111.6 million in convertible notes.

  • Total bank borrowings increased by about $29 million sequentially, with short-term borrowings increased from $691.1 million at the end of the second quarter to $715.8 million at the end of third quarter.

  • Our net cash and cash equivalents provision was $265.4 million, and total cash, including the restrictive cash, was $335.2 million at the end of the third quarter of 2012, compared to a net cash and cash equivalent provision of $314.2 million and total cash including the restrictive cash of $394.2 million at the end of third quarter of 2012.

  • Our CapEx plan remains conservative for the year. We expect to spend $14.8 million in the fourth quarter to expand our polysilicon production capacity and the integrated Phase II of our polysilicon plant, as well as build up our -- build our horizontal and project businesses.

  • Please turn to our guidance, which can be found on slide 7.

  • We expect the overall solar market to remain challenging in the fourth quarter. We expect total shipments to be about 635 megawatts to 675 megawatts, with module shipments in the range of 250 megawatts to 270 megawatts. Revenues are expected to be in the range of $240 million to $260 million. Gross margin is expected to be positive.

  • For the full year of 2012, we expect total solar wafer and module shipments to be close to 2.2 gigawatts.

  • At this time, we are happy to take your questions. Operator, please.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions). Timothy Lam, Citigroup.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • I have a couple of questions about the module shipments the Company is guiding. Company is certainly seeing a very strong demand in fourth quarter. Could Company give us an idea of what types of demand is coming from and which markets that is driving the growth? And also, is there any extension to the payment terms to drive such a strong growth in terms of the modules?

  • That's the first question.

  • And the second question I have is on the cost reduction for both your poly and wafer cost reduction. It's very impressive Company is able to reduce the costs very quickly towards to the year end. Could Company give us some color on what is driving the cost reduction in both the poly and the wafers?

  • Thank you.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Sure, no problem, Tim. Let me translate the question first, and I guess we'll answer each in turn.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • So in the fourth quarter, we're expecting strong demand out of China, and also out of the US where historically, we haven't had much in the way of sales.

  • We'll continue to have strength in Europe and Australia, where we have done very, very well. It's really these other markets coming along that's going to add to our module revenue mix and increase the shipments.

  • In terms of the extension of terms, we maintain continued tight credit terms, relatively speaking. And essentially, there shouldn't be an extension of the payment days.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • And now let me translate the second question that you had.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) On the wafer side, as you know, we're basically operating at 100% utilization, or close to now. We've been continuously improving the processes in our manufacturing, as noted with our Virtus II product lines and, beneath that, the Virtus A++ production technology.

  • We've always historically been the leader when it comes to wafer processing technology. Other companies hire their people from us, not the other way around. So it's perhaps to be expected that we can continue to do this.

  • On the poly side, for the future as we combine Phase I and Phase II, the costs are definitely going to continue to go down.

  • Now within Sichuan itself, there tends to be lower electricity costs, and as we include the processes, the material costs will go down as well. But as we integrate Phase I and Phase II and put more of the hydrochlorinization process into place, we expect these costs to continue to combine to bring both phases down, and there will also be less appreciation spread out.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • As for the other one, some comments for the polysilicon cost reduction; give some more specific examples here. Mr. Li mentioned that for our Phase II, the electricity consumption value would decrease about 40 degrees, which will have the [electricity which he's thinking] about is [$3.5] per kilogram.

  • And for the depreciation, because of the net investment and the high output, the depreciation will be similar, near to $5, something like that, compared to our Sichuan polysilicon production costs.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Thanks, and just a follow-up. So the poly production, so for both Phase I and Phase II is going to be combined and we'll be starting the trial run from January. Is that correct?

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Yes, the trial production is in January, and then certainly by the end of the first quarter should be in full production.

  • Timothy Lam - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse.

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • Brandon Heiken speaking on behalf of Satya. I was wondering if you could talk about your expectations for your own costs next year, and what that could mean for pricing, both in modules and wafers, please.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Sure, you're talking about estimates for costs. I guess you will want modules, wafers as well, polysilicon, right?

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • Sure, please. Thanks.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) Okay. So, Brandon, in terms of what we can say at this point is that for next year, what we can see right now, as mentioned earlier in the call, we think that we can definitely get to $18 on the polysilicon side. It will probably be difficult to go lower than that.

  • On the wafer side, thanks to our Virtus A++ technology, we can get to $0.11 per watt on the processing costs. It may be difficult at this stage to see additional cost improvements beyond that.

  • On the module side, we think there might actually be room for some additional cost improvement, and it can go down to as low as, say, $0.52/$0.53.

  • Does that answer your question?

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • I'm having trouble hearing this. Are you able to repeat that?

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Sure. Let me say again that the polysilicon, we think, as previously discussed, we can get to $0.18. There's probably very limited additional room for improvement on that as far as what we can see right now.

  • Similarly, with the wafer, we can get to $0.11 processing costs; perhaps not too much beyond that. And on the module side, $0.52 to $0.53, we think there is additional room, so we think it can go down to that low.

  • Brandon Heiken - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • [Chan Yung, China International].

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • My first question is a follow-up to your module guidance for 4Q. Could Mr. Li give us a rough geographic breakdown of module shipments in 4Q?

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) We're expecting Europe will be 120 megawatts to 130 megawatts, the US to be 30 megawatts, Australia to be another 30 megawatts, and China to make up the difference and the remainder.

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much. That was very helpful. My second question was on your poly productions side, since the production was temporarily halted starting November. So I assume you'll actually start to outsource poly from the spot market. So could Mr. Li give us roughly what would blended poly production cost would be in fourth quarter, taking into consideration of spot prices?

  • Thank you.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Do you mean blended production, or do you mean blended total sourcing costs as in our internally produced (multiple speakers).

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • Well, the blended poly costs.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Or do you mean the cost that was (inaudible)? Sorry.

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • Right. Just the blended poly costs in fourth quarter.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • So the price we're buying from the market?

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Okay. Actually, let me try and get you a couple of numbers there.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) Essentially, for both cases, it will probably end up to averaging at around $20, if you round up or round down.

  • So the external source right now, unfortunately, due to the fact that we have several long-term contracts and we're not buying much right now on the stock market because of that, would be at around $20; and the limited production that we've had had in the fourth quarter blended in, our overall costs would still be at around $20 per kilogram.

  • Chan Yung - Analyst

  • Right. Thank you very much. I'll jump back in the queue.

  • Operator

  • Kelly Dougherty, Macquarie.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • I just wanted to talk about your module pricing strategy. If you look at the ASPs of some of your public peers, team ReneSola has been pretty aggressive with pricing to gain share, and just wondering if that remains the plan going forward. And if so, how do we think about margins in the Module business? What do you think are sustainable module margins and when might we get there?

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) With regards to the pricing, your first question, compared to some of the best products, or the more established brands out there, we've been slightly lower in the past, and in the third quarter, that difference has been narrowing.

  • In the fourth quarter, we believe that overall in most of the markets that everyone participates in, and where we are as well, we should be more or less equal, or perhaps even higher priced than many of our peers and competitors.

  • Now a lot of the differences unfortunately are actually due to geography, so where people have established channels. So for example, as we make more US sales, which historically we haven't done much of, and in the future perhaps as we make Japanese sales as well, our overall blended ASPs will appear higher as well, just like many of our peers.

  • With regards to your second question on the margin side, right now unfortunately, we're being negatively impacted by certain long-term polysilicon contracts, without which our margins would in fact be much better.

  • And hopefully, we're thinking that next year things will improve on this front, and we believe that we could get to something like a 10% gross margin, which will perhaps be the answer you're looking to as to what would be normal. And we think again that this is something we could get to some time next year.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • Okay, that was helpful. I guess the next one is a little bit more strategic. When you think about the competitive pressures in the market, cash drains, debt, things like that, what's the rationale for branching out into new products, micro-invertors, storage?

  • You're involved poly wafer module invertors in many different places, and you say you want to cut back on R&D spend, so I'm just trying to understand what the rationale is behind that.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) I think, Kelly, it's worth pointing out how not too long ago we were primarily a wafer company, and most of our revenues, margins, etc., came from wafers. So certainly, if you look at where we are now, where we've transformed ourselves over the past year, we're now effectively more of a module company where our modules are making up something like half of our revenues, etc., never mind margins.

  • And at the rate that we're developing, next year certainly, we will be one of the top brands and have over 1 gigawatt of modules being produced and sold out there in the market.

  • I think the development of these ancillary and auxiliary products is a normal part of our development which would help the overall market, and also the sales of our products.

  • I think also I know that some of our other colleagues will point out many of the things that we're developing and doing out there is in fact also done by some of our peers, and some of these products, as you probably know, are produced by, say, companies like SunPower, etc. So I think that's a little bit I would like to add as well.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • Is this going to cost more CapEx to produce next year though? I'm thinking about the debt levels and the amount of money that you may have to dedicate to produce these products. Or is this something you're developing the technology and then will outsource it or license it? How should we think about that?

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Let me -- actually, I'm just saying there's one other part Mr. Li mentioned that I forgot to mention which is that, obviously, the conditions in the market cannot persist this way. Sooner or later things will have to turn around. So we're essentially preparing for that day as well.

  • Let me translate your question just now for Mr. Li as well.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) So in terms of where we've been historically, of course, we've been primarily a manufacturer, whether it's been wafers, modules or polysilicon. And it's something that we've had enormous success as well as experience in. But going forward for perhaps the next 10 years, well, certainly, we would like, as many other Chinese businesses, would like to evolve towards if they have greater R&D, greater branding, superior sales channels, etc., and that's perhaps part of normal evolution.

  • So perhaps it's safe to say that over time, we'll move away from manufacturing and production and more towards, shall we say, more flexible ways of growth.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • So I shouldn't assume -- I guess maybe a better question is, how should I think about CapEx for next year?

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • I think it's probably early to say, but I would say it's safe to say that if it requires substantial CapEx, we probably would not spend it. So perhaps you can model it out that way.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • All right. One more question from me then on the projects. So 46 megawatts going on right now. Can you give us some detail? Do you have buyers? What do the economics look like; what the revenue recognition will look like? And then maybe how we can think about the magnitude of the Project business for 2013.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Actually, for the projects in China currently, the IRR would be about 15%, something like that. For the projects in Romania, it depends how much -- what the price for the [green certificate] we can sell. But if it's mostly a conservative price at this moment, it could be about -- the IRR would be about 20%, something like that.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • So, overall, we're continuing to be prudent and perhaps do things on a small scale on the project side. I think in terms of revenue recognition, what comes out of this for all next year will be something like under $20 million, or around $20 million. Right now, we'll probably hold on to the solar power plants for a bit longer until there's a more suitable market for selling them.

  • So, again, I would say that big picture compared to some of our peers, who are doing things much more aggressively and are focusing on the power business a lot more; and we're going to go about it much more prudently and on a smaller scale.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • But you're building them without having buyers identified. Is that right? So this 46 megawatts, are you intending to --?

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • I think that's fair to say, but let me double check.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) Yes, I think what we do perhaps in China is a little bit different than what other people would do, say, in the US where you identify a buyer before you build it. As you might have noticed, not just with our peers but also some other related industries, more often than not, you have a situation where you build the power plant first and then you find actually financing for it, which then allows you to take cash out of the project and then you find a buyer.

  • So to answer your question more directly, no, we don't have a buyer at this point for the projects that we're building.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • So I guess the reason it will only be $20 million in revenue recognition is because you're owning the projects. So can you help us think about maybe 2013 from a megawatt perspective? Like what -- if you're doing 46 megawatts right now, how many do you think you'll do next year? Because I'm just worrying about what the impact will be on the balance sheet.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • I think the 46 megawatts when it gets done, it will be next year, but let me double check with the team for you on that.

  • Mr. Li and Henry said that if there is adequate and appropriate financing which limits our CapEx significantly, then we're thinking of maybe doing 80 megawatts to 100 megawatts next year. But that's only if we can find appropriate financing.

  • Kelly Dougherty - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Philip Shen, Roth Capital.

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

  • A lot of my questions have been asked already, so just a couple of housekeeping questions. In terms of OpEx, what should we look -- what should we expect for OpEx in Q4, and how do you expect it to trend in 2013?

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • (interpreted) So it should be something along the lines of $36 million per quarter now, and even for next year, it should be around the $36 million, $37 million.

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And then in terms of cash flow from operations, can you tell us what it was in Q3, and then what do you expect in Q4?

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Yes. I think actually we have a cash flow statement provided, so you should have that information readily available. But let me ask [Mr. Wang] on Q4.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • We try to achieve the operating cash flow for balance in Q4.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • So break even.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • Yes, break even.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • So, yes, break even hopefully in Q4.

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Sanjay Shrestha, Lazard Capital Markets.

  • Sanjay Shrestha - Analyst

  • A few specific questions. First, I wanted to get a sense from you guys what are you seeing in terms of the consolidation of capacity in China. And how many companies are really producing versus how many companies have actually shut doors compared to 12 months ago?

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) A lot of the information is out there publicly that you see, in particular with regards to the bigger names. When it comes to the smaller names, they're less obvious. I estimate that there may be something like 70% to 80% of the companies out there that came into existence for, say, last year or in the recent two years, about 70% to 80% of them are now gone, or at least have shut down production altogether. So there's definitely been a major reduction in the number of smaller players in the industry.

  • Sanjay Shrestha - Analyst

  • Okay, that's good. Obviously, that was more what I was asking as well. So in terms of the dynamics of the demand in China, what are you guys expecting as to how big the market is this year, or how big the market could be next year?

  • And given the change in the government, which really doesn't change the philosophy, but do you see any real changes to the energy policy and how that might end up impacting their view of how big they want Sola to be in the next five years?

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • Okay. Let me break that into two questions for you for Mr. Li.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) Sanjay, for your first question for 2012, the largest demand has been towards the end of the third quarter and fourth quarter, so it's only added up total to something like 2.5 gigawatts to 3 gigawatts. But oddly enough, there's actually been a lot of projects that's been out there that will supposedly for this year that have been approved but they're not getting done, and they might get done something like in March or April of next year.

  • With regards to 2013, there's actually a lot of uncertainty. There's something like 3 gigawatts under the Golden Sun, 2 gigawatts under other programs as well, some roof top programs, etc., combining to something like 4.3 gigawatts of, shall we say, approvals being sought that's out there.

  • Combined, there's some other shall we say projects going on out there for 1 gigawatt to 2 gigawatts. Overall, if you put everything together among all the different programs, there's going to be something like 6 gigawatts plus for next year.

  • But there's a lot of pending approvals, there's a lot of uncertainties, there's a lot of conditions, and as result, some of this may or may not come into fruition, but there is a lot of things that's certainly out there. And come 2014, a lot of these other installations might get done, so that might be a big year instead.

  • But overall, next year, if you put everything together, it looks something like 67 gigawatts.

  • Tony Hung - Vice President of International Corporate Finance & Corporate Communications

  • And now let me ask Mr. Li your second question.

  • Xianshou Li - CEO

  • (interpreted) There's this policy out there with regards to the grid, the [three] parts of the grid. And this new policy that's out there for the different installations, the policy has been proposed; it's not been finalized. And knowing a little bit about how these things work in China, it could take a while for not just all the policy conditions, etc., to become finalized, but also for the appropriate financing to be put into place.

  • As a result, it's quite likely that all these things at the government macro level only come together over the course of an entire year, so I will not be surprised if these things only come together in 2014.

  • Now that said, if all these things do come together, all the conditions are finalized, financing, etc., are provided, I will not be surprised either to see China becoming the biggest solar market in the world after that. So I think there's tremendous potential there for everyone.

  • Sanjay Shrestha - Analyst

  • Okay. That's all I had. Thank you so much, guys.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. We are now approaching the end of the conference call. I will now turn the call over to ReneSola's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Henry Wang, for his closing remarks.

  • Henry Wang - CFO

  • While difficult macro conditions continue to affect our business, we remain steadfast in our strategies, lower our costs, developing leading technology and growing our Module business. We're confident these strategies will position ourselves once market conditions improve, allowing us [customers]on the long-term potential of solar power and deliver long-term value to our shareholders.

  • Thank you again for joining us today. If you have additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

  • Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

  • Editor

  • Portions of this transcript that are marked (interpreted) were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the Company sponsoring this Event.