J M Smucker Co (SJM) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The J.M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2026 first quarter earnings question-and-answer session. This conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 J.M. Smucker 公司 2026 財年第一季財報問答環節。本次電話會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I'd like to turn the conference over to Crystal Beiting, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Thank you. You may begin.

我想將會議交給投資人關係與財務規劃與分析副總裁 Crystal Beiting。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2026 first quarter earnings question-and-answer session. I hope everyone had a chance to review our results as detailed in this morning's press release and management's prepared remarks, which are available on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call at the conclusion of this morning's Q&A session.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2026 財年第一季財報問答環節。我希望大家有機會仔細閱讀今天早上新聞稿中詳述的業績以及管理層的準備發言稿，這些內容可在我們公司網站 jmsmucker.com 上查閱。我們也將在今天上午問答環節結束時發布本次電話會議的音訊回放。

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we use non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP measures in this morning's press release.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述，反映我們對未來計劃和業績的當前預期。這些聲明依賴假設和估計，實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。此外，我們使用非 GAAP 結果來評估內部績效。我鼓勵您閱讀今天早上的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的完整披露以及我們的非公認會計準則指標的詳細資訊。

Participating on this call are Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board; and Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer. We will now open the call for questions.

參加本次電話會議的有執行長兼董事會主席 Mark Smucker 和財務長 Tucker Marshall。我們現在開始提問。

Operator, please queue up the first question.

接線員，請排隊第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Great, thanks so much. Good morning, everybody.

太好了，非常感謝。大家早安。

Morning.

早晨。

I think last quarter, Smucker mentioned that the pricing would benefit the Coffee segment sales by about 20% for fiscal '26. With new tariff headwinds since that time, I guess what was your updated expectation on pricing benefit in this segment now? And was that included as part of the August price increase? Or is there still more likely to come?

我記得上個季度，Smucker 提到定價將使 26 財年的咖啡部門銷售成長約 20%。從那時起，由於新的關稅阻力，我猜您對現在這一領域的定價優勢的最新預期是什麼？這是否包含在八月價格上漲？或者還有更多可能出現嗎？

Andrew, yes, the current outlook for pricing in the coffee segment is going to be in the mid-20s now. That would include additional pricing actions in the early year associated with the increased tariff rates that we're experiencing on green coffee. And then furthermore, we would likely see an impact to volume in the low to mid-teens therefore, having kind of a low- to mid-teens overall growth for the segment year-over-year.

安德魯，是的，目前咖啡領域的定價前景將在 20 多美元左右。這將包括年初採取的與生咖啡關稅提高相關的額外定價行動。此外，我們可能會看到銷售量受到低至中等幅度的影響，因此該細分市場的整體成長率將達到低至中等幅度。

Great, really helpful. And then last quarter, the company mentioned that first quarter EPS would be the softest quarter and that 2Q and 3Q would be consistent with each other. And now I think the second quarter decline is expected to be greater than the first quarter decline and maybe more muted than 3Q. So I'm just curious kind of what changed there to sort of cause that shifting in what appears to be a shift in sort of phasing?

太棒了，真的很有幫助。上個季度，該公司提到第一季的每股盈餘將是最疲軟的一個季度，而第二季和第三季的每股盈餘將保持一致。現在我認為第二季度的降幅預計將大於第一季度，並且可能比第三季度更為溫和。所以我只是好奇那裡發生了什麼樣的變化，導致了這種轉變，看起來是一種階段性的轉變？

Andrew, so as you know, our outlook for the full year has not changed at the midpoint. We still have a $9 midpoint guidance range. We do see favorability coming through our fiscal year as a result of better-than-anticipated price elasticity of demand assumptions through our coffee portfolio, but that benefit is being offset by increased tariffs that we're experiencing since our original guidance.

安德魯，如你所知，我們對全年的展望在中期沒有改變。我們仍然有 9 美元的中點指導範圍。由於我們的咖啡產品組合的需求價格彈性優於預期，我們確實看到了整個財政年度的有利因素，但這一好處被我們自最初指引以來經歷的關稅上調所抵消。

And then to your point, in our first quarter, we did experience some additional coffee costs greater than we anticipated. We always knew that the first quarter was going to be our highest coffee cost quarter, came in a little higher than anticipated. The outlook also anticipates that in our second quarter, just due to the timing of our hedging activity along with the physical receipt of green coffee. We'll have some additional costs in the second quarter, that is causing our outlook change for the second quarter. But overall, we do see coffee in line with profit expectations coming into the fiscal year based on where we stand now after absorbing the incremental tariffs.

然後回到您的問題，在第一季度，我們確實經歷了一些超出預期的額外咖啡成本。我們一直都知道，第一季將是我們咖啡成本最高的季度，比預期的要高一點。展望也預計，在我們的第二季度，僅僅因為我們的對沖活動的時間以及實際收到的生咖啡。我們在第二季會產生一些額外成本，這導致我們對第二季的展望發生變化。但整體而言，根據我們目前吸收增量關稅後的狀況，我們確實認為咖啡在本財年的利潤符合預期。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Tucker, I was hoping maybe we could pick up on the coffee piece there. The elasticity, I think, that you've assumed now was about $0.20 better than you had at Q4 with the additional $0.25 so netting about $0.05 worse I was just hoping maybe you could help us gross that up to the top line level. I think from an elasticity perspective, you were assuming about 0.4 or 0.5 before. Just want to understand kind of where that number on a holistic basis has moved to now?

大家好，早安。感謝您回答這些問題。塔克，我希望我們能在那裡討論一下咖啡的事。我認為，您現在假設的彈性比第四季度高出約 0.20 美元，再加上 0.25 美元，因此淨利潤約為 0.05 美元，我只是希望您能幫助我們將其提高到頂線水平。我認為從彈性的角度來看，您之前假設的是 0.4 或 0.5 左右。只是想了解現在這個數字整體上變​​化到了什麼程度？

Sure. So I think if we take a step back, we really have several pricing actions that are flowing through our fiscal year. The first was in the May timeframe. The second is in the August timeframe. And then likely in the early winter, there will be a third action as well. And what we did coming into the fiscal year is, on average, across our entire portfolio over an entire fiscal year was about a 0.5 elasticity. And what we've experienced through our May pricing is a slightly better factor that enabled us to have a very strong first quarter within our Coffee portfolio, kind of over-delivering expectations of about $50 million.

當然。因此，我認為如果我們退一步來看，我們確實有幾項定價行動貫穿我們的財政年度。第一次是在五月期間。第二次是在八月。然後很可能在初冬還會有第三次行動。我們在進入財政年度時所做的是，平均而言，整個財政年度我們整個投資組合的彈性約為 0.5。我們透過 5 月的定價了解到，有一個稍微好一點的因素，這讓我們的咖啡產品組合在第一季度表現非常強勁，超出了約 5000 萬美元的預期。

We've taken that assumption throughout the balance of the fiscal year, which is really enabling us to call up Coffee about $100 million on a full year basis due to the implications of price elasticity of demand factors. Our August pricing, we're still kind of keeping at that 0.5 factor, which is the historical elasticity. And then any future pricing actions that we would take in early winter that would largely made a greater elasticity factor than historical just due to the timing and nature and also the fact that we're taking so much pricing in one fiscal year, as we just called out in Andrew's question kind of in the mid-20%. Hopefully, that helps.

我們在整個財政年度都採取了這一假設，由於需求因素的價格彈性的影響，這實際上使我們能夠在全年的基礎上調用約 1 億美元的咖啡。我們八月的定價仍然保持在 0.5 這個水平，這是歷史彈性。然後，我們在初冬採取的任何未來定價行動，在很大程度上都會產生比歷史更大的彈性係數，這僅僅是由於時間和性質，也是由於我們在一個財政年度採取瞭如此多的定價，正如我們剛才在安德魯的問題中提到的那樣，在 20% 左右。希望這能有所幫助。

Yeah. And then, Mark, as a follow-up, I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about Milk-Bone returning to growth in the second half of this fiscal year. And I just wanted to understand that comment was really driven by just some of the compares and some of the one-offs that happened in the second half of last year or if your expectation is that consumption in Milk-Bone actually returned to positive growth in the second half as well? And maybe you can just remind us again on some of the dynamics year-over-year.

是的。然後，馬克，作為後續問題，我想在您準備好的演講中，您談到了 Milk-Bone 將在本財年下半年恢復成長。我只是想了解一下，您的評論是否真的只是基於去年下半年發生的一些比較和一次性事件，或者您是否預期 Milk-Bone 的消費量在下半年實際上也會恢復正增長？也許您可以再次提醒我們一些同比變化的情況。

Sure, Peter. Yes, you are correct, that we will have some strong comps in the back half, which will help. What I would highlight about Milk-Bone is that the brand, we continue to support the brand, obviously, through advertising, the innovation on the PB Bites. We have seasonals coming, and we will tactically sharpen some specific price points or used promo where we need to. But we still have high confidence in the brand but acknowledge that because the consumer discretionary categories continues to be a bit cautious. We have seen the frequency of pet parents treating their pets go down a little bit.

當然，彼得。是的，您說得對，我們在後半段會有一些強大的競爭對手，這會有所幫助。我想強調的是，Milk-Bone 這個品牌，我們將繼續支持該品牌，顯然是透過廣告，以及 PB Bites 的創新。我們即將迎來季節性產品，我們將在需要的地方策略性地提高一些特定的價格點或使用促銷產品。但我們仍然對該品牌充滿信心，但也承認，由於非必需消費品類別仍然有點謹慎。我們發現寵物主人治療寵物的頻率下降。

But because of all of the actions that I just highlighted and the continued support that we will provide to the brand, the fact that it has so many different varieties and plays across the value spectrum. We still have high hopes for that brand, and we'll continue to support it all the way through the fiscal year.

但由於我剛才強調的所有行動以及我們將為該品牌提供的持續支持，該品牌才擁有如此多的不同種類並涵蓋整個價值範圍。我們仍然對該品牌寄予厚望，並將在整個財政年度繼續支持它。

Robert Moscow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moscow），TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks for the question. I was wondering in your discussion about Sweet Baked Snacks and explained the volume decline in the quarter. I didn't mention I didn't notice any mention of the SKU rationalization impacting the volume. I wanted to know if that impacted it as well?

你好，謝謝你的提問。我對您在討論甜烘焙零食時遇到的問題感到疑惑，並解釋了本季銷量下降的原因。我沒有提到我沒有註意到任何關於 SKU 合理化影響銷售的提及。我想知道這是否也對其有影響？

And then secondly, can you give a little more detail on the dedicated sales organization that you're putting in place? How is it different from your go-to-market approach currently? And what do you expect to get out of it?

其次，您能否詳細介紹您正在設立的專門銷售組織？這與您目前的行銷方法有何不同？您希望從中得到什麼？

Sure, Rob, it's Mark. First, on the sales, we have a dedicated convenient store sales force, which we've had from the outset, and that obviously is a core competency of the business. And then just more broadly, in totality, a dedicated sales force, it's it functions similar to our total sales force. It's just focus. It's really all about making sure that we're focused on the right things and getting the execution that we need all the way down to the store shelves.

當然，羅布，我是馬克。首先，在銷售方面，我們從一開始就擁有一支專門的便利商店銷售隊伍，這顯然是我們業務的核心競爭力。從更廣泛的角度來看，專門的銷售團隊總體而言，其功能與我們的總銷售團隊類似。這只是焦點。這實際上是為了確保我們專注於正確的事情，並將我們所需的執行一直到商店貨架。

Now as it relates to the SKU rationalization, we won't be through the work of rationalizing those SKUs until -- through the second quarter. And we do expect that, over time, the remaining portfolio will continue to replace those sales and overall improve profitability in the segment. And then finally, I might just add that although it was in the prepared remarks, I'd love to just emphasize that we are starting to see some green shoots as we are referring to them in terms of things like the convenience channel slightly improving in terms of health and traffic. We've had good share performance at some of our most important traditional retail and mass customers. I mentioned the profit performance.

現在，由於它與 SKU 合理化有關，我們要到第二季才能完成這些 SKU 的合理化工作。我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，剩餘的產品組合將繼續取代這些銷售，並全面提高該部門的獲利能力。最後，我還要補充一點，雖然這是在準備好的發言中，但我還是想強調一下，我們開始看到一些復甦的跡象，例如便利管道在健康和交通方面略有改善。我們在一些最重要的傳統零售和大眾客戶中取得了良好的份額表現。我提到了利潤表現。

And then just overall, the focus that we're bringing to the portfolio over time will benefit the brand. And then finally, I think one of the highlights is Donettes, and the fact that the breakfast occasion continues to be strong, and we have seen good growth out of our Donettes brand.

總體而言，隨著時間的推移，我們對產品組合的關注將使品牌受益。最後，我認為其中一個亮點是 Donettes，事實上早餐市場持續強勁，我們看到 Donettes 品牌取得了良好的成長。

And did the rationalization impact volume in first quarter?

合理化對第一季的銷售有影響嗎？

It did not.

但事實並非如此。

Okay. All right, thank you.

好的。好的，謝謝。

Tom Palmer, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的湯姆·帕爾默。

Good morning. Thanks for the question. I wanted to follow up on Andrew's question about the guidance and kind of implications for the cadence. So you reiterated the annual address maybe some incremental weakness for the second quarter. That would seem to suggest that maybe the back half of the year is a bit better than you previously anticipated. I just wanted to clarify what's driving that improvement in the second half versus what you expected previously?

早安.謝謝你的提問。我想跟進安德魯關於節奏的指導和影響的問題。因此，您重申了年度講話，第二季可能會出現一些漸進的疲軟。這似乎表明今年下半年的情況可能比你之前預期的要好一些。我只是想澄清一下，與您之前的期望相比，是什麼推動了下半年的改善？

Yeah. So I think there's a couple of factors. One is, in the first half, we just have timing of coffee costs coming through our first and second quarters, but the profit outlook for coffee remains intact with our original expectations coming into the fiscal year, after absorbing an incremental $0.25 of tariffs, but yet experiencing a positive $0.20 tailwind associated with favorable elasticities. And so really, what we're doing is we're just shifting some of the profit to our third and fourth quarters, but we remain focused on the midpoint of our guidance range at this point in time.

是的。所以我認為有幾個因素。一是，在上半年，我們剛好掌握了第一季和第二季咖啡成本的時機，但咖啡的利潤前景仍然與我們進入本財年的最初預期一致，在吸收了增量的 0.25 美元關稅之後，但仍經歷了與有利彈性相關的 0.20 美元正向順風。所以實際上，我們所做的只是將部分利潤轉移到第三季度和第四季度，但目前我們仍然專注於指導範圍的中點。

And then on the Sweet Baked Snacks, the SKU reduction, when does the actions you're taking start to impact the earnings line. Is that we should look for a sequential improvement as we move through the second half of fiscal '26, or is it more a consideration for fiscal '27?

然後對於甜烘焙零食，SKU 的減少，您採取的行動何時開始影響收益線。我們是否應該期待 26 財年下半年連續改善，還是多考慮 27 財年？

Yeah. So we've outlined a $30 million savings benefit associated with SKU rationalization in the closure of our Indianapolis bakery. And we'll begin to see about $10 million of that benefit flow through our fourth quarter with the balance or $20 million impacting or benefiting fiscal year '27 and profitability in Sweet Baked Snacks should improve sequentially as we move through the fiscal year with the fourth quarter being our strongest, and that would also track with the top line.

是的。因此，我們概述了在關閉印第安納波利斯麵包店時與 SKU 合理化相關的 3000 萬美元的節省收益。我們將開始看到其中約 1000 萬美元的收益流入我們的第四季度，餘額或 2000 萬美元將影響或使 27 財年受益，並且隨著我們整個財年的推進，甜烘焙零食的盈利能力將逐季提高，第四季度是我們最強勁的季度，這也將與營業收入同步。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks operator. Good morning guys. In the prepared remarks, you touched on the sequential momentum that you're seeing that should set up for an on-algorithm year or better in fiscal '27. So just given that we're one quarter into fiscal '26, can you just talk about the level of confidence or visibility you have to that at this stage?

謝謝接線生。大家早安。在準備好的發言中，您提到了所看到的連續勢頭，這應該為 27 財年的演算法年或更好的表現奠定基礎。那麼，鑑於我們已經進入 26 財年的一個季度，您能否談談您目前對此的信心或預見性水平？

Our visibility into next fiscal year continues to be sort of a work in progress. But I think what we were trying to highlight is as we think about the coffee portfolio, our strongest margins will be in the fourth quarter, which would be in the mid-20s. So you'd have exit rate within your green coffee portfolio or your overall coffee business.

我們對下一財年的預測仍在進行中。但我認為，我們想要強調的是，當我們考慮咖啡產品組合時，我們最強勁的利潤率將出現在第四季度，也就是 25% 左右。因此，您的綠色咖啡組合或整體咖啡業務中都會有退出率。

Two is, as you see the ongoing benefits of the stabilization efforts within the Hostess portfolio, and then you see the continued momentum of your growth brands around Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone as well, which has enabled us to give some point of view as it relates to how we're thinking about next fiscal year, and we also continue to navigate the overall tariff environment.

二是，如您所見，Hostess 產品組合的穩定化努力正在持續帶來好處，同時，您也看到 Uncrustables、Meow Mix、Milk-Bone 等品牌的成長勢頭持續，這使我們能夠就下一財年的規劃提出一些觀點，並且我們還將繼續關注整體關稅環境。

Great. That's super helpful. And then just a follow-up just in terms of phasing on the top line, but more how you see price relative to vol/mix I think the presentation shows an expectation for 10% price for the year and vol/mix down 4%. So just curious how you see that evolving from here? And then specifically on coffee pricing, 18% in the first quarter expectation for mid-20% for the year. Any thoughts you can share on what that ramp looks like given the August increase and now that the potential winter increase as well?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後只是就頂線的分階段進行跟進，但更多的是您如何看待價格相對於波動率/混合率，我認為演示文稿顯示了對今年價格上漲 10% 和波動率/混合率下降 4% 的預期。所以我很好奇您認為接下來會如何發展？具體來說，咖啡定價方面，第一季預計上漲 18%，全年預計將上漲 20%。考慮到 8 月的成長以及現在冬季可能出現的成長，您能分享一下這種成長趨勢嗎？

Yeah. So coffee, let's begin with coffee. Coffee being in the mid-20s. We saw 18% come to Q1. You'll feel basically in the mid-20s in your second and third quarter, and then your fourth quarter, you'd be slightly ahead of that as you think about the coffee portfolio.

是的。那麼咖啡，我們就從咖啡開始吧。咖啡的濃度在 20 度以上。我們看到第一季的成長率為 18%。在第二季度和第三季度，你會感覺基本上在 25 左右，然後在第四季度，當你考慮咖啡投資組合時，你會稍微領先於這個數字。

And then just in terms of the overall sales ramp for the full fiscal year, just acknowledge that we continue to get sequentially better as we move through the balance of the year.

然後，就整個財政年度的整體銷售成長而言，我們承認，隨著全年的剩餘時間，我們的業績將繼續逐年改善。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask about the increased free cash flow outlook. It seems like there's a onetime benefit coming through this year. But just wondered if you could talk high level about that how that what you're expecting to do with that increased cash? How we should think about maybe pace of de-leveraging going forward?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想詢問有關增加自由現金流的前景。看起來今年將會有一次性的福利。但我只是想知道您是否可以高層次地談論一下您打算如何使用增加的現金？我們該如何看待未來去槓桿的步伐？

Megan, Yes, we did increase our free cash flow outlook from $875 million to $975 million for the full fiscal year. That increase of $100 million is largely driven by the benefits coming through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. And it is not a onetime benefit. It will be an ongoing annual benefit as we move forward into subsequent fiscal years.

梅根，是的，我們確實將整個財年的自由現金流預期從 8.75 億美元提高到了 9.75 億美元。這一 1 億美元的成長主要得益於《一項美麗大法案》帶來的收益。而且這不是一次性福利。隨著我們進入後續財政年度，這將是一項持續的年度福利。

We plan to use the proceeds or incremental cash to support our ongoing debt pay-down efforts in order to achieve our 3 times leverage profile by the end of fiscal year '27.

我們計劃利用所得款項或增量現金來支持我們正在進行的債務償還努力，以便在 27 財年末實現 3 倍的槓桿率。

That's helpful. And then maybe just on the 2Q comparable net sales outlook. I think in the prepared remarks, you said mid-single-digit. It's a bit above, I guess, where the scanner data has been tracking more recently? I know we'll get this August price increase in coffee, which will help. But it does seem like there's maybe some dynamics with Sweet Baked Snacks and the SKU reduction and maybe some sequential improvement in Pet. So I just wondered if you could just help us unpack as we think about tracking the scanner data over the next couple of quarters, which segments we should expect to see kind of sequential improvement and how we should think about that in terms of the reported sales?

這很有幫助。然後也許只是關於第二季可比淨銷售額的前景。我認為在準備好的發言中，您說的是中等個位數。我猜，它位於掃描器數據最近跟踪的位置上方一點？我知道八月咖啡價格會上漲，這會有所幫助。但看起來，甜烘焙零食和 SKU 減少可能存在一些動態，寵物方面可能也有一些連續的改善。所以我只是想知道，當我們考慮追蹤未來幾季的掃描器數據時，您是否可以幫助我們解開謎團，我們應該期待哪些部分出現連續的改善，以及我們應該如何從報告的銷售額角度來考慮這一點？

Yeah. You'll see momentum in coffee, as we discussed. Within Frozen Handheld and Spreads, you'll see the momentum coming through the Uncrustables brand or portfolio. As you think about in our Pet segment, you'll see the ongoing momentum in our Cat Food portfolio, and you'll see the ongoing kind of stabilization efforts coming through within Sweet Baked Snacks. And then our Away From Home business continues to be a bright spot in our portfolio as well.

是的。正如我們所討論的，你會看到咖啡的動力。在《冷凍手持產品和塗抹產品》中，您會看到 Uncrustables 品牌或產品組合所展現出的動能。當您思考我們的寵物部門時，您會看到我們的貓糧產品組合持續保持成長勢頭，您會看到甜烘焙零食部門正在進行的穩定努力。我們的戶外業務也繼續成為我們產品組合中的一個亮點。

Okay great thank you.

好的，非常感謝。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning, everyone. Can I ask on coffee first of all, there was no mention of potentially pursuing tariff exemptions in the mitigating activities that you're pursuing. Is there a chance that application for an exemption on the tariffs because obvious coffee can't be grown in the US could be a possibility further down the road?

大家早安。首先，可以問一下關於咖啡的問題嗎？你們正在採取的緩解措施中沒有提到可能尋求關稅豁免。由於明顯的咖啡無法在美國種植，未來是否有可能申請免關稅？

Thanks, Alexia. It's Mark. We continue to monitor and assess any changes that we're seeing to trade policy and tariffs. And obviously, where we're really focused is working through our industry associations to advocate for policymakers and ultimately are really striving to get the best outcomes for our consumers. But at this point, we don't have anything to report in terms of any further relief. But as if anything does come through, we would certainly reflect that in our guidance.

謝謝，亞歷克西亞。是馬克。我們將繼續監測和評估貿易政策和關稅的任何變化。顯然，我們真正關注的是透過我們的行業協會來倡導政策制定者，並最終努力為我們的消費者爭取最好的結果。但目前，我們還沒有任何關於進一步救援的消息可以報告。但如果確實有任何進展，我們肯定會在我們的指導中反映出來。

And then as a follow-up, on the Hostess business, are you seeing any impact from GLP-1 drugs specifically? And should we be concerned that with pill versions coming out early in '26 that there might be some incremental pressure over the course of next year?

然後作為後續問題，關於 Hostess 業務，您是否看到 GLP-1 藥物的具體影響？我們是否應該擔心，隨著 26 年初藥丸版本的推出，明年可能會出現一些遞增的壓力？

Thanks, Alexia. I was expecting that question. And we've said in the past, we still monitor this and really take a close look at the impact of GLP-1s and what they're having on food generally and more specifically, our business, and we update our outlook monthly on that. And to this up to this point, we still don't see any meaningful impact in our categories, and we'll continue to make sure that we're offering the consumer products and variants of products that they're seeking, whether that could be reduced sugar or portion sizes and so forth. So we feel like the portfolio is very well positioned to address those types of issues, and we'll continue to monitor.

謝謝，亞歷克西亞。我預料到了這個問題。我們過去曾說過，我們仍在監測這一點，並密切關注 GLP-1 的影響以及它們對食品的整體影響，更具體地說，對我們的業務的影響，我們每月都會更新對此的展望。到目前為止，我們仍然沒有看到我們的類別受到任何有意義的影響，我們將繼續確保我們提供消費者所尋求的產品和產品變體，無論是減少糖分還是減少份量等等。因此，我們認為該投資組合非常適合解決此類問題，我們將繼續關注。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧甘波特。

Hey, thanks for the question. Trying to get a better sense for on your updated coffee assumptions. So it sounds that you now expect to see mid-20% pricing this year. You expect to see a volume impact in the down to the low to mid-teens, resulting in sales in the low to mid-teens. So it sounds like overall elasticity is still expected to be about 0.5 times, so in line with what you expected before.

嘿，謝謝你的提問。嘗試更了解您更新後的咖啡假設。因此聽起來您現在預計今年的價格將達到 20% 左右。您預計銷售影響將下降至十幾歲到十幾歲的低位，導致銷售額下降至十幾歲到十幾歲的低點。因此聽起來整體彈性仍預期約為 0.5 倍，因此與您先前的預期一致。

I think because earlier price increases are now better than expected. August will be roughly in line with historical of 0.5 times and then winter much worse. If that's all true, how do we square that with the commentary that the combined impact of coffee and tariffs is still to be roughly $0.80 to $0.85 headwind t no real change in the combined impact despite the fact that volume is going to be much worse than you expected before it feels like. Can you just give a bit more color on that?

我認為是因為早期的價格上漲現在比預期的要好。8 月的情況將大致與歷史水平的 0.5 倍持平，而冬季的情況則更糟。如果這一切都是真的，那麼我們如何將其與以下評論相一致：咖啡和關稅的綜合影響仍然約為 0.80 美元到 0.85 美元，儘管交易量比你之前預期的要糟糕得多，但綜合影響並沒有真正的變化。您能對此進行更詳細的說明嗎？

Yeah. So Max, I think the way that you've framed in the pricing and the volume and the current outlook for growth for the business is correct based on our prepared remarks and some questions I've already answered previously. I would say that what we're seeing is, is that coffee outlook has gone up by $100 million for the full fiscal year. Much of that came through Q1 and much of that is sharpening the pencil on early pricing actions and the impact of price elasticity of demand.

是的。所以 Max，根據我們準備好的評論和我之前已經回答過的一些問題，我認為你對定價、銷售和當前業務成長前景的描述是正確的。我想說的是，我們看到的是，整個財年的咖啡前景上漲了 1 億美元。其中大部分來自第一季度，並且很大程度上提高了早期定價行動和需求價格彈性的影響。

When you kind of factor that in, that is a $0.20 benefit to your guidance range. But unfortunately, tariff rates have gone above 10%, and we have to react to that. And we now have a net $0.25 impact, which is largely coming through our coffee portfolio, which is just basically bringing them back to to their financial plan at profit for the year. So we do view this as a good story and the resilience of the overall coffee category, the strength of our brands in the category. But unfortunately, there's just factors beyond our control that are not enabling us to take either the profit up in the business unit or taking up our guidance as a result of increased tariff.

當你把這一點考慮進去時，這將為你的指導範圍帶來 0.20 美元的收益。但不幸的是，關稅稅率已超過10%，我們必須對此做出反應。現在我們的淨影響為 0.25 美元，這主要來自我們的咖啡組合，這基本上使他們回到了當年的財務計劃並實現盈利。因此，我們確實認為這是一個好故事，也體現了整個咖啡類別的彈性以及我們品牌在該類別中的實力。但不幸的是，有一些我們無法控制的因素，使得我們無法提高業務部門的利潤，也無法透過提高關稅來實現我們的預期。

Great. And then Mark, going back to the last question on GLP-1 drugs and your monthly research show no real impact. So far, can you provide a bit more color on what the, what your studies are showing in terms of I assume they are showing that consumers on GLP-1 drugs are eating less food given we know these drugs are effective at reducing weight. But if that's true, why are you not seeing an impact? Are you saying that your categories are not the categories where consumers are reducing their food consumption? Or are there other parts of the story I'm missing. Just curious more color on what you are seeing given you are doing a pretty detailed research on this topic.

偉大的。然後馬克，回到關於 GLP-1 藥物的最後一個問題，你的每月研究顯示沒有真正的影響。到目前為止，您能否更詳細地說明您的研究結果，我認為這些研究表明，服用 GLP-1 藥物的消費者吃的食物更少，因為我們知道這些藥物可以有效減肥。但如果這是真的，為什麼你沒有看到影響？您是說，您的產品類別不是消費者正在減少食品消費的產品類別嗎？或者我是否遺漏了故事的其他部分。鑑於您正在對這個主題進行非常詳細的研究，所以我只是對您所看到的內容感到好奇。

Of course, Max, thanks. So first of all, the data that we look at is across a very pretty broad variety of sources. And as we all know that these these drugs do reduce appetite and cause folks to eat less and highlight that our category is various parts of our category don't really fall into at all the areas that people might consume less, like coffee, beverages and of course, Pet. And so where you might see in our other Foods, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Hostess, I think everyone likes to focus on Hostess.

當然，馬克斯，謝謝。首先，我們查看的數據來自各種各樣的來源。眾所周知，這些藥物確實可以降低食慾，讓人們吃得更少，並且強調我們的類別的各個部分實際上並不屬於人們可能消費較少的領域，例如咖啡、飲料，當然還有寵物。因此，您可能會在我們的其他食品、冷凍手持食品和塗抹食品以及 Hostess 中看到，我想每個人都喜歡關注 Hostess。

The fact is people who are consuming Uncrustables for the most part, are athletes, families with kids -- universities. We're now and have really good performance in convenience stores. And so from an Uncrustables standpoint and a Spread's standpoint, we really haven't seen any impact at all. from the GLP-1. And then as you would expect on Hostess because it's a sweet, people still do look to reward themselves with something small, potentially and indulgent throughout the day. And the snacking trends still indicate that about 70% of consumers are still snacking twice a day. And that it might be salty, it might be sweet, what have you.

事實上，大多數消費 Uncrustables 的人都是運動員、有孩子的家庭——大學生。我們現在在便利商店方面的表現非常好。因此，從 Uncrustables 和 Spread 的角度來看，我們確實沒有看到 GLP-1 的任何影響。然後，正如您所期望的，由於 Hostess 是一種甜食，人們仍然希望在一天中用一些小東西來獎勵自己，這可能是一種放縱的感覺。而零食趨勢仍然表明，大約 70% 的消費者仍然每天吃兩次零食。它可能是鹹的，可能是甜的，隨便什麼。

But at the end of the day, as we look at who is consuming our products, we have not seen a meaningful impact from these drugs on the categories that might be affected.

但最終，當我們觀察誰在消費我們的產品時，我們並沒有看到這些藥物對可能受影響的類別產生重大影響。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Scott Marks from Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的斯科特馬克斯 (Scott Marks)。

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking our questions. First thing I wanted to ask about, maybe just a clarification, the Hostess SKU reduction. It sounds like it's maybe some long tail SKUs, some smaller SKUs. Just wondering if you can clarify maybe how much in sales that represents of that part of the business and how we should think about the impact of that for this year?

嘿，早安。非常感謝您回答我們的問題。我首先想問的是，也許只是為了澄清一下，關於 Hostess SKU 的減少。聽起來可能是一些長尾 SKU，一些較小的 SKU。只是想知道您是否可以澄清一下這部分業務的銷售額佔比是多少，以及我們應該如何看待這對今年的影響？

It's a combination. It is mostly long-tailed SKUs, and it is SKUs that are not generating the requisite profit impact. right? And so really getting focused on the brands, the sub-brands, if you will, in under Hostess and the products that are going to drive both growth in top and bottom line are where we're focused. I would not spend too much time focusing on the sales because we do believe that we can offset the sales by growth in the more important sub-brands.

這是一個組合。它主要是長尾 SKU，並且是沒有產生必要利潤影響的 SKU。對嗎？因此，我們真正關注的是 Hostess 旗下的品牌、子品牌（如果你願意的話），以及能夠推動營收和利潤成長的產品。我不會花太多時間關注銷售，因為我們確實相信我們可以透過更重要的子品牌的成長來抵消銷售。

So for example, Donettes is 3 times the size of the next closest brand, which is Cupcakes. And so with Donettes, growth there is good and then continuing to focus on the other occasions outside of breakfast will help us support brands like Cupcakes and Twinkies.

例如，Donettes 的規模是排名第二的品牌 Cupcakes 的 3 倍。因此，對於 Donettes 來說，其增長是良好的，然後繼續關注早餐以外的其他場合將有助於我們支持 Cupcakes 和 Twinkies 等品牌。

Understood. And second question, comes back to one that was asked earlier just around kind of the tariff situation on coffee. If, for instance, some exemption does come through on that, how maybe should we be thinking about the pricing actions that you mentioned in the winter? Or how long might that take to be reflective in your P&L? Just trying to gauge what the impacts would be and how long they might take to show up?

明白了。第二個問題，回到之前問到的有關咖啡關稅的情況。例如，如果確實存在一些豁免，那麼我們應該如何考慮您在冬季提到的定價行動？或者這需要多長時間才能反映在您的損益表中？只是想評估一下會產生什麼影響以及多久才會顯現出來？

Yeah, Scott. So we now have embedded net $0.50 negative impact due to tariffs in our guidance range. That is a result of tariffs coming into place at the end of our last fiscal year, tariffs being in the full year effect of this fiscal year and then tariffs going above 10%. And there's very much a timing impact.

是的，斯科特。因此，我們現在已將關稅造成的淨負面影響 0.50 美元納入我們的指導範圍。這是因為關稅在我們上一財年結束時開始實施，關稅在本財年全年產生影響，然後關稅將超過 10%。這對時間的影響非常大。

So should we receive relief from whatever the definition of relief is on green coffee, we would come back and have to revise the impact of the $0.50 for the fiscal year just due to the fact we're realizing it now and timing negotiated with it. And then secondly is we could also at that time then provide an update as it relates to how that would transition into FY27.

因此，無論對綠咖啡的減免定義是什麼，我們都應該獲得減免，我們都會回來並必須修改財政年度 0.50 美元的影響，因為我們現在才意識到這一點，並且時間已經協商好了。其次，我們也可以在那時提供有關如何過渡到 FY27 的更新資訊。

But the thing that I want to caution is, should you read of relief, you may not add back the $0.50 to the full fiscal year because of the realization and timing factors that we're experiencing to-date.

但我想提醒的是，如果您讀到救濟，您可能不會將 0.50 美元加回整個財政年度，因為我們迄今為止所經歷的實現和時間因素。

That's helpful. Thanks for the clarity. Thanks for taking questions.

這很有幫助。謝謝你的澄清。感謝您的提問。

We have reached end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back for any further closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想讓大家再發表一些結束語。

Well, first of all, thank you, everyone, for your time and for joining the call this morning. Our first quarter results demonstrate our strategy is working, and we continue to take actions to position the company for long-term growth and manage the things that we truly can control and react to those which may be out of our control in a positive fashion. This includes making strategic investments in the business launching consumer-led innovation and continuing to shift our portfolio to growth.

嗯，首先，感謝大家抽空參加今天早上的電話會議。我們第一季的業績顯示我們的策略正在發揮作用，我們將繼續採取行動，為公司的長期成長做好準備，管理我們真正能夠控制的事情，並以積極的方式應對那些可能超出我們控制範圍的事情。這包括對開展消費者主導的創新業務進行策略性投資，並繼續將我們的投資組合轉向成長。

And as always, I would like to thank our outstanding employees for their continued hard work and dedication to our company. We hope that many of you will be able to join us in Boston at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference next week. A live webcast of our presentation is on September 2nd, at 12:45 PM Eastern and can also be accessed from our Investor Relations website. Thank you.

像往常一樣，我要感謝我們優秀的員工，感謝他們為公司持續的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們希望你們中的許多人能夠參加下週在波士頓舉行的巴克萊全球消費品會議。我們的演示將於 9 月 2 日東部時間下午 12:45 進行網絡現場直播，您也可以從我們的投資者關係網站訪問。謝謝。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference webcast. You may disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議網路直播到此結束。您可以斷開連線。