J M Smucker Co (SJM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the J.M. Smucker Company's fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings Question-and-Answer session. This conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I'll now turn the conference call over to Crystal Beiting, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Thank you. You may begin.

早安，歡迎參加 J.M. Smucker 公司 2025 財年第三季財報問答環節。本次電話會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在，我將電話會議轉給投資者關係和財務規劃與分析副總裁 Crystal Beiting。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2025 third quarter earnings question-and-answer session. I hope everyone had a chance to review our results as detailed in this morning's press release and management's prepared remarks, which are available on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call at the conclusion of this morning's Q&A session.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2025 財年第三季財報問答環節。我希望每個人都有機會查看我們今天早上的新聞稿和管理層準備好的發言中詳細說明的結果，這些都可以在我們的公司網站 jmsmucker.com 上找到。我們也將在今天早上的問答環節結束時發布此次通話的音訊回放。

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述，反映我們對未來計劃和業績的當前預期。這些聲明依賴假設和估計，實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。

Additionally, we use non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP measures in this morning's press release.

此外，我們使用非 GAAP 結果來評估內部績效。我鼓勵您閱讀今天早上的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的完整披露以及我們的非公認會計準則指標的詳細資訊。

Participating on this call are Mark Smucker, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer. We will now open the call for questions. Operator, please queue up the first question.

參加本次電話會議的有董事會主席、總裁兼執行長 Mark Smucker；以及財務長 Tucker Marshall。我們現在開始提問。接線員，請排隊第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Maybe to start, comparable sales in fiscal 3Q declined a bit more than 1%. And by our math, comparable sales need to rise by a bit more than 1% in your fiscal 4Q to hit the revised '25 sales target. Obviously, you see improvement in pet as the disruptions are now behind you, but it seems that sweet baked snacks will probably decline at a somewhat similar rate maybe as the third quarter. So I guess I'm trying to get a better sense of where else you're seeing improvement that underpins the expected sequential sales improvement in 4Q?

首先，第三財季的可比銷售額下降了 1% 多一點。根據我們的計算，貴公司第四財季的可比銷售額需要成長 1% 以上，才能達到修訂後的 25 年銷售目標。顯然，隨著市場波動的加劇，寵物食品的銷量有所改善，但甜味烘焙零食的銷售量可能會以與第三季類似的速度下降。所以我想我試著更了解您還看到了哪些方面的改善，這些改善支撐了第四季度預期的連續銷售成長？

Andrew, you did lay that out correctly. We do align with your math. But I do want to share that we do see the sequential improvement on a comparable basis, largely driven within our pet portfolio. As you have noted, along with better-than-expected outlook within our coffee portfolio as well.

安德魯，你確實說得正確。我們確實同意你的數學。但我確實想分享的是，我們確實看到了可比基礎上的連續改善，這主要歸功於我們的寵物投資組合。正如您所注意到的，我們的咖啡產品組合的前景也比預期好。

Got it. And then I was hoping, Tucker, maybe you could just maybe help us unpack and maybe help quantify a little bit the individual buckets that drove the fiscal '25 comparable sales guidance revision. I know there are a couple of puts and takes in there.

知道了。然後我希望，塔克，也許你能幫助我們解開並幫助量化推動 25 財年可比銷售指導修訂的各個因素。我知道這裡面有幾件事要處理。

Yes, Andrew. Our guidance revision from 8% at the midpoint on a reported basis down to 7.25% at the midpoint of the new guidance range. That change reflects about $60 million. And really, what it relates to our two things: First, it largely is driven by the miss in our second -- or third quarter, excuse me, the net $20 million miss and then also a call down in Hostess by approximately $20 million in our fourth quarter as well.

是的，安德魯。我們的指導修訂從報告基礎上的中間點 8% 下調至新指導範圍中間點的 7.25%。這項變更意味著約 6,000 萬美元。實際上，這與我們的兩件事有關：首先，這主要是由於我們第二季度或第三季度的虧損，對不起，淨虧損 2000 萬美元，其次是第四季度 Hostess 的虧損約 2000 萬美元。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

You've talked about how you're still very optimistic on Hostess in the category, but you also took a -- and I know this is accounting, but you took an $800 million write-down today on goodwill as well as a $200 million impairment charge. And that's approaching 20% of the price you paid for Hostess. So I wanted to back up a second. Over the years, you've had some very successful acquisitions, right, including Folgers, cat food, pet treats. You've done a great job with Cafe Bustelo. Obviously, a lot of things are working quite well.

您曾談到您對 Hostess 在該類別中的表現仍然非常樂觀，但您也這樣做了——我知道這是會計，但您今天對商譽進行了 8 億美元的減值，併提了 2 億美元的減值費用。這接近您為 Hostess 支付價格的 20%。所以我想回顧一下。這些年來，你們進行了一些非常成功的收購，包括 Folgers、貓糧、寵物零食。您在 Cafe Bustelo 方面做得非常出色。顯然，很多事情都進展得相當順利。

But I think it's also fair for some investors to kind of ask about -- a little bit about the process of some of your acquisitions. And no one bet 1,000. But as you progress further with your ownership of this Hostess asset, just taking that step back, how comfortable are you with the general M&A process that Smucker adheres to? And are there any tweaks you would consider making to your strategy in light of maybe Hostess taking a little bit longer to work than what you might have thought?

但我認為，對一些投資人來說，詢問一些關於你們收購過程的情況也是公平的。沒有人下注 1,000。但是，隨著您對 Hostess 資產所有權的進一步增加，退一步來說，您對 Smucker 遵循的一般併購流程感到滿意嗎？考慮到 Hostess 可能需要比您想像的更長的時間才能發揮作用，您是否會考慮對您的策略進行一些調整？

It's Mark. Thanks for the question. We remain very confident in the Hostess acquisition, right? We still believe that it was the right acquisition driven by, obviously, an iconic brand, it's a leading brand, the underlying trends in snacking and specific sweet snacking still bode well for the category. I think as we talked at CAGNY last week, it's fair to say that we recognize that the performance has not been where we wanted, primarily driven by two things.

是馬克。謝謝你的提問。我們對 Hostess 的收購仍然非常有信心，對嗎？我們仍然相信，這是一次正確的收購，顯然，這是一個標誌性品牌，一個領先品牌，零食和特定甜食的潛在趨勢仍然預示著該類別的良好發展。我想，正如我們上週在 CAGNY 所談論的那樣，我們可以公平地說，我們認識到業績並沒有達到我們的預期，主要是由兩件事造成的。

One, the category temporarily being down driven by a bit more selective consumer. And then although the integration or the cutover itself went very well, acknowledging that we've had some executional missteps that are less related to the integration and more related to distribution, merchandising and just the way that we executed our normal playbook not being quite up to our own standards.

一是，由於消費者更加挑剔，該類別暫時下滑。儘管整合或切換本身進展順利，但我們承認，我們在執行上存在一些失誤，這些失誤與整合關係不大，而與分銷、商品銷售以及我們執行正常劇本的方式不太符合我們自己的標準有關。

That said, obviously, going back to our confidence in the brand, we outlined five -- and in the prepared remarks as well as last week, five very specific actions that we're taking to stabilize the brand. And obviously, this morning announcing some new leadership changes, which are really intended to accelerate the pace of implementation on those five pillars that we discussed, very confident in that team and that leadership to continue to drive that and use our proven commercial playbook to continue to stabilize that business.

話雖如此，顯然，回到我們對品牌的信心上，我們在準備好的評論中以及上週概述了五項——我們正在採取五項非常具體的行動來穩定品牌。顯然，今天早上宣布了一些新的領導層變動，這些變動實際上是為了加快我們討論過的五大支柱的實施步伐，我們非常有信心該團隊和領導層將繼續推動這一進程，並使用我們成熟的商業策略來繼續穩定該業務。

So although we haven't given time frames and so forth in terms of returning to growth, we still do feel very bullish about the brand. And obviously, part of that was the portfolio evolution of getting more focused on Hostess, divesting the value brand as well as Voortman. So still feel very good about it. I appreciate the question, and we'll continue to report back to our shareholders on the progress of those five pillars and how the leadership is delivering against it.

因此，儘管我們還沒有給出恢復成長的時間表等，但我們仍然對該品牌非常樂觀。顯然，其中一部分原因是投資組合的演變，更專注於 Hostess，剝離價值品牌以及 Voortman。所以對此還是感覺很好。我很感謝這個問題，我們將繼續向股東報告這五大支柱的進展以及領導層如何實現這些目標。

And thank you, Mark, for that transparency. I really do appreciate it. Tucker, if I can ask a different question quickly. You talked last week at CAGNY, how fiscal '26, too early to obviously give any numbers, but you said you're hoping for or you would expect it to be above Algo before the impact of elasticity related to green coffee inflation.

感謝馬克的坦誠。我真的很感激。塔克，如果我可以快速問一個不同的問題。您上週在 CAGNY 談到 26 財年，顯然現在給出任何數字還為時過早，但您說您希望或預計它會在受到與生咖啡通膨相關的彈性影響之前高於 Algo。

I think there were some questions coming out about, again, in light of -- or with respect to the fact that you can't give exact numbers, would you expect to be more on algo, below algo, all in? Or is it just too early to say at this point?

我認為又出現了一些問題，考慮到——或者考慮到你不能給出確切的數字，你是否希望在演算法上、在演算法下、在全部投入上投入更多？還是現在說這些還太早？

It's too early to call it, right? We're in the early innings of our planning phase for next fiscal year. What we wanted to do last week at CAGNY was outlining the elements that we were considering. And we did share that we could see a path to an above algorithm year for adjusted earnings per share. However, due to green coffee inflation, and the impact associated with price elasticity of demand, it will be a meaningful headwind as we enter into FY26. And it's just too early to call whether there'll be a level of earnings growth or not.

現在下結論還為時過早，對嗎？我們正處於下一財政年度規劃階段的早期階段。我們上週在 CAGNY 想要做的是概述我們正在考慮的要素。我們確實表示，我們可以看到調整後每股收益高於演算法年度的路徑。然而，由於生咖啡通膨以及與需求價格彈性相關的影響，當我們進入 26 財年時，這將成為重大阻力。現在判斷獲利是否會出現一定程度的成長還為時過早。

And if I may, just on coffee. I think it's important to just remember that despite the fact that we're at these record high coffee costs, we've been pleased with the performance of the coffee business in total and the consumer response to obviously, pricing, but of course, our support of the brand, our merchandising, our marketing as well and just reminding ourselves that at-home coffee is still very healthy in terms of consumption and also being by far the most affordable way to consume coffee compared to all other channels or other formats. So I think just given the fact that we play across the value spectrum, and we do offer the consumer a range of choice and value, we still feel very good about the coffee category overall.

如果可以的話，我只想喝咖啡。我認為重要的是要記住，儘管咖啡成本創下了歷史新高，但我們對咖啡業務的整體表現以及消費者對定價的反應感到滿意，當然，還有我們對品牌、商品銷售和營銷的支持，並提醒我們自己，家庭咖啡在消費方面仍然非常健康，而且與所有其他渠道或其他形式相比，它是迄今為止最實惠的咖啡消費方式。因此，我認為，鑑於我們涵蓋了整個價值範圍，並且確實為消費者提供了一系列選擇和價值，我們對整個咖啡類別仍然感到非常滿意。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Mark, Tucker, just going back to the comments from last week, around coffee, you noted that you'll have to kind of -- or you think you'll have to take additional pricing actions. Just curious if there's anything more you can share with us post the June and October price increases when we might think about seeing an additional price increase in any parameters you want to put around potential magnitude just as we begin to contemplate both the fourth quarter and '26?

馬克、塔克，回到上週關於咖啡的評論，你們指出你們必須採取某種措施——或者你們認為你們必須採取額外的定價行動。我只是好奇，在 6 月和 10 月價格上漲之後，您是否可以與我們分享更多信息，當我們開始考慮第四季度和 26 年時，我們可能會考慮看到任何參數的額外價格上漲，您想將其放在潛在的幅度上嗎？

Yes. Peter, we haven't laid out any specific timing. But as you will recall, we take pricing when our physical costs dictate that. So we're using all of our hedging instruments and so forth. But really, it isn't until we take the coffee into inventory as green that we would start to price for that. So although we haven't laid out when other pricing is going to happen, we do expect it's going to happen in the next fiscal year, probably in the first half.

是的。彼得，我們還沒有確定具體的時間。但正如您所記得的，我們是根據實際成本決定定價的。所以我們正在使用所有的對沖工具等等。但實際上，直到我們將咖啡作為生咖啡入庫後，我們才會開始為其定價。因此，儘管我們還沒有確定其他定價的具體時間，但我們預計它將在下一個財年（可能是上半年）發生。

Got it. And Tucker, just to go back on the impairment and Hostess, I guess I just want to understand kind of the dynamics of obviously taking the impairment relative to the 4% top line long-term number you've laid out for Sweet Baked Snacks, whether that's changed at all or whether just your thoughts around profitability for that business longer term have changed that necessitated kind of the impairment because obviously, something there has changed over the longer term, I would think, to discount the cash flows that much more back. So any additional color there would be helpful.

知道了。塔克，讓我們回到減損問題上，Hostess，我只是想了解一下，相對於您為 Sweet Baked Snacks 制定的 4% 長期營業收入數字，顯然要計提減值，這是否有所改變，或者您對該業務長期盈利能力的想法是否發生了變化，從而需要進行減值，因為顯然，從長遠來看，有些事情已經發生變化，我認為有些事情已經發生變化，我認為有些事情已經發生了變化，我認為有些東西已經發生變化，我認為有些東西已經發生變化，我認為有些事情已經發生變化，我認為有些事情了，我認為因此任何額外的顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. Peter, the impairment charges that we announced today and recognized really relate to the recent underperformance of the Hostess brand and the overall portfolio. As you know, we stepped into this fiscal year with an outlook for $1.4 billion of top line for that portfolio. And we shared in our prepared remarks that the outlook is now $1.2 billion and the Voortman impact or the Voortman divestiture is only $65 million of that change.

是的。彼得，我們今天宣布並確認的減損費用實際上與 Hostess 品牌和整體投資組合近期的表現不佳有關。如您所知，我們進入本財年時預計該投資組合的營收將達到 14 億美元。我們在準備好的演講中提到，目前的前景是 12 億美元，而 Voortman 的影響或 Voortman 資產剝離僅佔該變化的 6500 萬美元。

It's just a demonstration of the impacts that we're seeing not only in the category but also across execution that Mark spoke to. Our focus today is the leadership changes that we've announced also along with stabilizing the business or the portfolio through those five key pillars and eventually returning the portfolio to growth over time. Currently, we have not walked away from our long-term outlook of 4% for the business. But right now, the focus is on stabilization and advancing through those pillars.

這只是我們看到的影響的一個證明，不僅在類別中，而且在馬克談到的整個執行過程中。我們今天的重點是我們宣布的領導層變動，以及透過這五大支柱穩定業務或投資組合，並最終使投資組合隨著時間的推移恢復成長。目前，我們還沒有放棄對該業務 4% 的長期預期。但現在的重點是穩定和推進這些支柱。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

I'm going to have a confirmation like question to confirm Ken Goldman's question and then a second follow-up. So just on the response to Ken's question around fiscal '26, are you -- the comment that you made when you say a level of earnings growth, are you saying you're unclear as to whether you will grow earnings in fiscal '26 or you're unclear as to how much you will grow earnings in fiscal '26?

我將提出一個類似確認的問題來確認肯·戈德曼的問題，然後再進行第二次跟進。那麼，僅就肯關於 26 財年的問題的回答而言，當您提到盈利增長水平時，您是說您不清楚 26 財年您的盈利是否會增長，還是您不清楚 26 財年您的盈利會增加多少？

So maybe an unfair question in a way because I don't think you said one way or the other, but I just couldn't tell as in that response, you were saying you were unclear if you're were to grow earnings or just how much. So any context there might be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

所以從某種程度上來說這可能是一個不公平的問題，因為我認為你並沒有說出這樣或那樣的意思，但我只是無法判斷，就像在那個回答中，你說你不清楚你是否要增加收入或只是增加多少。因此任何背景資訊都可能有幫助。然後我有一個後續問題。

Chris, it's difficult to call FY26 outlook today. We can certainly do that on our fourth quarter earnings call as we walk through our -- and complete our planning process. What I want to acknowledge is, is that at CAGNY, we outlined the elements that we were considering for our earnings and for our top line.

克里斯，今天很難預測 26 財年的前景。我們當然可以在第四季度財報電話會議上做到這一點，因為我們正在進行並完成了我們的規劃流程。我想承認的是，在 CAGNY，我們概述了我們正在考慮的有關我們的收益和營業收入的因素。

And in that, we saw the opportunity to be above algorithm growth for FY26. But what we've also shared is that the green coffee commodity continues to trade at record highs and will be a meaningful headwind to our financial outlook for next fiscal year, and that's where we stand today.

由此，我們看到了 2026 財年實現演算法成長的機會。但我們也分享的是，綠色咖啡商品的交易價格繼續創下歷史新高，並將對我們下一財年的財務前景造成重大阻力，這就是我們今天的立場。

Okay. Yes, I realize that was kind of unfair question, but I figured I'd ask. Regarding the coffee business, in your prepared remarks, you said that elasticities were actually trending in line or better than your expectations. I think in the quarter, it was a bit worse than the 0.5. Can you maybe just unpack that comment and what you're seeing? And I thought coffee margins were also quite a bit better than expectations in the quarter. Have you just not been hit yet by some of this inflation that we're seeing? Or is the pricing covering? Just any context there as well.

好的。是的，我知道這個問題有點不公平，但我想我還是會問。關於咖啡業務，在您準備好的發言中，您說彈性實際上趨勢符合或好於您的預期。我認為本季的情況比 0.5 稍差一些。您能否解釋一下該評論和您所看到的內容？我認為本季咖啡的利潤率也比預期好得多。您是否還沒有受到我們所看到的通貨膨脹的影響？或定價是否涵蓋？那裡也存在任何上下文。

Chris, it's Mark. First, I would just go back to the comments I made earlier about how the coffee -- at-home coffee performs at being a very affordable at a fraction of the cost of other channels, right? So versus, say, a coffee shop or an energy drink, for example, coffee is -- brewed cup of coffee even at K-Cup is a fraction of the cost. So it is very affordable and consumers continue to consume coffee, and we remain very confident in our ability to continue to invest in the brands offer the consumer a range of options from value to premium and choice. And we do expect, from a coffee commodity perspective that these things are cyclical and although we are at higher costs, we do expect the commodity over time to normalize.

克里斯，我是馬克。首先，我想回到我之前關於咖啡的評論——家用咖啡的價格非常實惠，只是其他通路價格的一小部分，對嗎？因此，與咖啡店或能量飲料相比，即使在 K-Cup 沖泡一杯咖啡，成本也只是其中的一小部分。因此，咖啡價格非常實惠，消費者也會繼續消費咖啡，我們仍然非常有信心，我們有能力繼續投資於品牌，為消費者提供從價值到高端和選擇的一系列選擇。從咖啡商品的角度來看，我們確實預期這些事情是週期性的，儘管我們的成本較高，但我們確實預期商品隨著時間的推移會恢復正常。

Yes, if I might just add one comment is that we manage through as a leader, where we always as we think about taking price, we want to recover dollar for dollar on a profit basis. And to the extent that we support margins, it's pulling the other levers that are available to us, such as price pack architecture, our hedging strategy, formulation, flexibility, those types of things. So from a pricing perspective, again, it's just recovering dollar for dollar, but then supporting our margin through those other levers.

是的，如果我可以補充一點的話，那就是我們作為領導者進行管理，我們總是在考慮定價時，我們希望在利潤的基礎上一美元一美元地收回成本。在我們支持利潤的範圍內，它正在拉動我們可用的其他槓桿，例如價格包架構、我們的對沖策略、配方、靈活性等等。因此，從定價的角度來看，這只是一美元一美元地回收，然後透過其他槓桿來支持我們的利潤率。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

I guess, I'll ask fiscal '26 in a different way and Tucker, maybe you could answer it differently or not. But I would imagine by division, coffee profits most likely down year-over-year in '26 because of the higher cost. Pet food probably up, I think, because you have these stranded overhead reductions. And then Sweet Baked Snacks, I mean, I would imagine you could have profit growth because of these synergies.

我想，我會用不同的方式詢問 26 財年的問題，塔克，也許你可以用不同的方式回答，或不回答。但我認為，由於成本較高，按部門劃分，26 年咖啡利潤很可能會比去年同期下降。我認為，寵物食品的價格可能會上漲，因為這些擱淺的間接費用減少了。然後是甜烘焙零食，我的意思是，我可以想像你們的利潤會因為這些協同效應而成長。

But then again, I don't know if it's going to get reinvested. And I also don't know if the synergies all flow through to that segment or not. So if there's any way you could maybe just address more broadly on those three I'd appreciate it.

但話又說回來，我不知道它是否會被重新投資。而且我也不知道所有的綜效是否都會影響那個部分。因此，如果您能以任何方式更廣泛地討論這三個問題，我將不勝感激。

Yes, Rob, it's difficult to give you the puts and takes by business for our financial plan for next fiscal year when we haven't completed that journey. But what I can offer is, is that your framework is a framework, and you'll have to make your own estimates or assumptions.

是的，羅布，當我們還沒有完成這趟旅程時，很難告訴你我們下一財年的財務計畫的業務成本和收益。但我可以提供的是，你的框架只是一個框架，你必須做出自己的估計或假設。

Two is, I would just acknowledge that stranded overhead does impact pet, but it impacts other elements of the total company. And I would acknowledge, too, that not all synergies flow directly to the Sweet Baked Snack segment, some will flow into the corporate area as well. We did share on the synergy front that we are tracking toward the $100 million objective by the end of fiscal year '26. We will probably exit this fiscal year with about $70 million toward that $100 million run rate leaving about $30 million in '26. So hopefully, those are just some additional points that will help your modeling.

第二，我承認擱淺間接費用確實會影響寵物，但它也會影響整個公司的其他要素。而且我也承認，並非所有的綜效都會直接流向甜烘焙零食部門，有些也會流入公司領域。我們確實在綜效方面分享了我們正朝著 2026 財年末 1 億美元的目標邁進。我們本財年結束時可能將剩下約 7,000 萬美元，以實現 1 億美元的運行率，而 26 年則剩下約 3,000 萬美元。所以希望這些只是一些有助於您建模的附加要點。

It does. And maybe a follow-up. For fourth quarter, the guidance implies a pre-substantial decline in profit year-over-year. Is a lot of this happening in coffee because of the price-cost relationship? Or is it more spread out by division?

確實如此。或許還有後續行動。對於第四季度，該指引意味著利潤將比去年同期大幅下降。咖啡業出現這種情況是否大多是因為價格成本關係造成的？還是按部門劃分得更分散？

Yes. So I think it's a couple of things. As you walk through that, I just was checking the charts. Yes, you will see that coffee in the fourth quarter will step into its highest cost basket out of the four quarters. You will see continued investment in frozen handheld and spreads, and you see the continued call down in Sweet Baked Snacks.

是的。所以我認為這有幾件事。當你走過那段路時，我只是在檢查圖表。是的，你會看到第四季的咖啡將進入四個季度中成本最高的階段。您將看到對冷凍手持食品和塗抹食品的投資持續增加，並且您會看到對甜烘焙零食的需求持續下降。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Maybe I could just open following up what you just said on frozen handhelds and spreads. I think at the start of the year, you discussed around $50 million or $0.35 earnings in kind of earnings overhang from start-up costs and other investments. A year ago, when you were going through the preproduction costs, I think we've gotten some quantification by quarter. Just any help in terms of what we saw in the third quarter in terms of those investments? And then maybe how to think about the fourth quarter?

也許我可以繼續討論你剛才關於冷凍手持設備和塗抹醬所說的內容。我認為在年初，您討論了約 5000 萬美元或 0.35 美元的收益，這些收益來自啟動成本和其他投資的盈利過剩。一年前，當您審核預生產成本時，我想我們已經按季度進行了量化。就我們在第三季看到的這些投資而言，有什麼幫助嗎？那麼也許該如何考慮第四季呢？

Sure. So you are correct, Tom. We did call out at the beginning of this fiscal year, $0.35 headwind or investment within that portfolio really broken down into thirds: One was supporting promotion and merchandising; Two, is supporting incremental marketing on the portfolio; and then three was just the ongoing McCalla manufacturing expenses, whether they be pre-production expenses or just the overhead absorption.

當然。所以你是對的，湯姆。我們確實在本財年初就指出，該投資組合中的 0.35 美元逆風或投資實際上分為三部分：一是支持促銷和商品推銷；二是支持投資組合的增量營銷；第三是持續的 McCalla 製造費用，無論是預生產費用還是間接費用吸收。

As you think about sort of the quarters, the fourth quarter really came in line with the prior year, maybe slightly better because pre-prod did come in a little -- preproduction expenses, excuse me, did come in a bit favorable. As you think about the fourth quarter, we're probably just slightly better year-over-year, but we will continue to see the elevated marketing as we support the brand.

當你考慮各個季度時，你會發現第四季度的表現確實與上一年持平，甚至可能略好一些，因為前期製作費用確實有一點增長——對不起，前期製作費用確實有點增長。想想第四季度，我們的表現可能只是比去年同期略好一些，但隨著我們支持該品牌，我們將繼續看到行銷的提升。

Okay. And then on the Pet segment, you had the comment about low single-digit growth in the third quarter, excluding both the contract manufacturing and the disruptions. I just want to clarify the disruptions, do they linger into 4Q? Or should it be a clean quarter? And then to what extent, if at all, did the disruptions caused you to pull back on merchandising and other brand support that might ramp in 4Q?

好的。然後，關於寵物領域，您評論說，不包括合約製造和中斷，第三季的成長率為低個位數。我只是想澄清一下這些中斷，它們會持續到第四季嗎？或者應該是個乾淨的季度？那麼，這些中斷在多大程度上導致您減少可能在第四季度增加的商品銷售和其他品牌支援？

You are correct. We did call out a $30 million supply chain disruption, primarily impacting our US retail pet food segment. That did hit us in the third quarter, as I've noted. It is behind us. We do view it as onetime in nature. We are working through being back on shelf in stock, full distribution, primarily on the Milk-Bone brand that did happen in the third quarter. There is some element of that in the fourth quarter, but nothing material or significant to call out. And I just would acknowledge that there's really no sequential or delay or incremental investment that we're going to see in the fourth quarter on pet.

你是對的。我們確實報告了價值 3000 萬美元的供應鏈中斷事件，主要影響了我們的美國零售寵物食品部門。正如我所指出的，這確實在第三季對我們造成了打擊。它已經在我們的身後了。我們確實認為它本質上是一次性的。我們正在努力恢復庫存並全面分銷，主要是針對第三季發生的 Milk-Bone 品牌。第四季確實存在一些這樣的因素，但沒有什麼實質或重大的值得指出的。我承認，我們在第四季度確實不會看到對寵物的連續、延遲或增量投資。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Can I ask just coming back to Hostess, how can you be sure from the data that you're seeing that this is indeed due to price elasticity and value-seeking behavior. I think you mentioned selective behavior is pressuring the category and not due to some more permanent shift of the demand curves perhaps due to GLP-1s or consumer interest in longevity and concerns about heavily processed foods and disease.

我可以問一下 Hostess，您如何從所看到的數據中確定這確實是由於價格彈性和價值尋求行為造成的。我認為您提到的選擇性行為正在給該類別帶來壓力，而不是由於需求曲線的某些更持久的變化，也許是由於 GLP-1 或消費者對長壽的興趣以及對高度加工食品和疾病的擔憂。

Just curious about what it is about the data that makes you confident that this is just a temporary problem rather than something a little bit more long term?

我只是好奇，數據中有什麼資訊讓您確信這只是一個暫時的問題，而不是一個長期問題？

Sure, Alexia. We -- from a GLP-1 standpoint, we update our data at least monthly, right? And we look at trends and all the impacts on snacking generally and sweet snacking specifically. And we continue to not see material impact to the category. So I would guide you back to the comments just around a more cautious consumer convenience channel being down in general. Gas prices have been elevated, and so people are just having a bit less extra discretionary change in their pocket. I think that is clearly part of it.

當然，亞歷克西亞。我們－從 GLP-1 的角度來看，我們至少每月更新一次數據，對嗎？我們研究了零食的整體趨勢及其對零食的影響，特別是對甜食的影響。我們仍然沒有看到該類別受到實質影響。因此，我想引導您回顧一下有關更加謹慎的消費者便利管道總體處於關閉狀態的評論。汽油價格已經上漲，因此人們口袋裡的可自由支配的零錢就少了一點。我認為這顯然是其中的一部分。

And so we don't see -- we are not attributing to that-- to the decline in the category to the GLP-1, and we do acknowledge our own executional missteps, which we are, obviously, in the process of changing and improving. I would also just highlight that Donettes continue to perform very well, and the breakfast occasion is performing well as well. So just to highlight that.

因此，我們並沒有看到——我們並沒有將此歸咎於——GLP-1 類別的下降，我們確實承認我們自己的執行失誤，顯然，我們正在改變和改進的過程中。我還要強調的是，Donettes 的表現持續非常好，早餐業務也表現良好。只是為了強調這一點。

And just as a quick follow-up. The declines in Jif and fruit spreads, can we just get a quick update on what's causing that and how quickly that might be resolved.

這只是一次快速的跟進。Jif 和水果價差下跌，我們能否快速了解造成這現象的原因以及解決這個問題的速度有多快。

Yes, sure. Jif is performing very well. We had a little bit of a down quarter. I would just remind you that we've had a really strong first half of the year and so there's just a little bit of timing there. But we expect the Jif brand to continue to perform as it has. So I wouldn't expect anything out of the ordinary, and you'll see that the share prices or the share performance has been pretty consistent. So feeling good about peanut butter in general.

是的，當然。Jif 的表現非常出色。我們本季的業績略有下滑。我只是想提醒你，我們今年上半年的表現非常強勁，所以只是時機有點問題。但我們預計 Jif 品牌將繼續保持目前的表現。因此我不會期待任何異常情況，而且你會發現股價或股票表現一直相當穩定。總體來說，我對花生醬感覺很好。

And then on fruit spreads, as I think we've mentioned, we've had a bit of competitive activity and we are now turning on back on some pretty strong marketing and advertising. And so we'd expect to see some stabilization in the fruit spreads category as well in our brand.

然後關於水果醬，正如我想我們已經提到的，我們有一些競爭活動，現在我們重新開始進行一些相當強大的行銷和廣告。因此，我們預期我們的品牌的果醬類別也會趨於穩定。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Marks, Jefferies.

（操作員指示）斯科特·馬克斯（Scott Marks），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Scott Marks here on for Rob Dickerson. First one I wanted to ask, just turning back to the sweet snack category. I guess, given the current dynamics, everything that you've spoken to today and certainly over the past few weeks, have you seen any maybe pushback from retailers just in terms of (technical difficulty) the new channels you're speaking to, any hesitancy from those folks to add more from the sweet snack category?

斯科特·馬克斯 (Scott Marks) 代替羅布·迪克森 (Rob Dickerson)。我想問的第一個問題，回到甜食類別。我想，考慮到當前的情況，以及您今天以及過去幾週談到的一切，您是否看到零售商在您所談到的新管道（技術難度）方面有任何阻力，他們是否猶豫是否要增加更多甜食類別的產品？

No, Scott, we haven't. In fact, we're working pretty closely with our retailers to continue to improve the shelf set. And one of the things that continues to drive performance in Sweet Baked Snacks is innovation, limited time offerings, and we have a strong pipeline of that continuing to come online as we move forward and into obviously the new fiscal year. So honestly, our conversations and as we get into the new mod resets in the coming months, we feel pretty confident about how we'll show up on shelf.

不，斯科特，我們沒有。事實上，我們正​​在與零售商密切合作，以繼續改善貨架設置。繼續推動甜烘焙零食業績成長的因素之一是創新和限時供應，隨著我們進入新的財政年度，我們擁有強大的管道繼續推出這些產品。所以說實話，我們的對話以及我們在未來幾個月內進入新模式重置時，我們對我們將如何出現在貨架上感到非常有信心。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then second question for me. I know there's been obviously a lot of discussion about coffee. Obviously, the inflation has been evident and tied into inflation that we see also in cocoa recently. And just in terms of some questions about sustainability of supply and stability of cocoa growing regions, let's say.

知道了。非常感謝。這是我的第二個問題。我知道顯然已經有很多關於咖啡的討論。顯然，通貨膨脹已經很明顯，並且與我們最近在可可中看到的通貨膨脹有關。就供應的可持續性和可可種植區的穩定性等一些問題而言。

Do you feel there's anything to that with regards to the coffee commodity just in terms of maybe concerns about sustainability or need to kind of expand production more globally? Just wondering if you can speak to that and what's been happening.

您是否認為這與咖啡商品有關，可能與永續性有關，或需要在全球擴大生產？只是想知道您是否可以談談這個問題以及發生了什麼。

If I understand your question, I think this really comes down to just the cyclical nature of the commodity, right. And what you're seeing in the commodity is simply fundamentals. We've had a supply deficit. This is the fifth year in a row where there's been a relative undersupply world demand for coffee continues to be strong.

如果我理解你的問題，我認為這實際上歸結為商品的周期性，對吧。你在商品中看到的只是基本面。我們的供應出現短缺。這是連續第五年出現咖啡供應相對不足的情況，但全球對咖啡的需求仍然強勁。

But we do view that as we've been in the coffee category for almost -- or 15 years, the commodity is cyclical. And we do expect just as historical, that over time, the commodity will moderate and there's been a significant amount of progress with ourselves participating both in supporting small holder farmers in helping them improve their crops in various regions around the world as well as breeding programs that are looking at coffee plants that are actually more resistant to climate change, and there's been some good progress there as well.

但我們確實認為，由於我們進入咖啡領域已有近 15 年的時間，這種商品具有週期性。我們確實預計，正如歷史一樣，隨著時間的推移，商品價格將會趨於平穩，我們在支持小農戶、幫助他們在世界各地改良作物以及培育更能抵抗氣候變化的咖啡樹的育種計劃方面已經取得了顯著進展，並且也取得了一些良好的進展。

So I think the right steps are being taken from a crop standpoint across the industry and we would expect some normalization in the crop over time.

因此，我認為從作物的角度來看，整個產業正在採取正確的措施，我們預計隨著時間的推移，作物產量會逐漸恢復正常。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧甘波特。

Last quarter, you discussed some expectation for coffee segment profit margin to be in mid- to low 20% range in the second half of this year. You just printed a 28% margin. Could you help frame what led to that much better-than-expected results? I think there was a callout on favorable property taxes, which I'm not sure would have been anticipated. But really, I'm looking for more color on the interplay of pricing, commodity inflation, elasticity, deleverage and then other cost savings.

上個季度，您討論了對今年下半年咖啡部門利潤率將達到 20% 中低水準的預期。您剛剛列印了 28% 的利潤。您能否解釋一下導致結果遠超預期的原因是什麼？我認為有人呼籲徵收優惠的房產稅，但我不確定是否會預料到。但實際上，我希望了解更多關於定價、商品通膨、彈性、去槓桿以及其他成本節約之間相互作用的資訊。

Max, Coffee had a nice quarter, third quarter from a top line perspective and that did materialize in the margin. And the margin did come in slightly better than we anticipated, and that's largely due to the way that price elasticities are holding in, and we're delivering volume mix. It's also the way that we continue to manage the cost structure of the overall business or portfolio. And so you're just seeing that favorability come through in the third quarter.

馬克斯，從營業收入角度來看，第三季 Coffee 的業績表現不錯，而且利潤也確實有所體現。利潤率確實比我們預期的要好一些，這主要是因為價格彈性保持良好，而且我們提供的是數量組合。這也是我們繼續管理整體業務或投資組合成本結構的方式。因此，您會看到這種有利因素在第三季顯現出來。

We would just remind you that as you step into the fourth quarter, that will come down as we basically now have the highest cost basket in our fourth quarter. So we will see that come down for -- from the third to the fourth quarter sequentially. And that's largely just driven, again, due to the underlying green coffee commodity costs and also our continued price elasticity of demand factor.

我們只是想提醒您，隨著進入第四季度，這一數字將會下降，因為我們現在第四季的成本籃基本上是最高的。因此，我們將看到這一數字從第三季到第四季逐季下降。這很大程度上是由於潛在的綠色咖啡商品成本以及我們持續的需求價格彈性因素。

And then just going back to the $1 billion impairment charge for Sweet Baked Snacks. So it sounds like you mentioned that your $1.4 billion sales target for this year has come down to $1.2 billion. But I'm trying to get a better and also that you're still sticking to the 4% long-term growth rate so I'm trying to get a better sense for that, what is driving the $1 billion impairment charge? It doesn't feel to me like a $200 million cut to sales in one year would be the driver of that. And I think it's really much more based on your long-term free cash flow expectations for this business. So could you provide a bit more context on what has changed that has led to that impairment charge today? (technical difficulty)

然後回到 Sweet Baked Snacks 的 10 億美元減損費用。聽起來您提到今年的銷售目標 14 億美元已降至 12 億美元。但我正在努力獲得更好的結果，而且您​​仍然堅持 4% 的長期成長率，所以我試圖更好地了解這一點，是什麼推動了 10 億美元的減值費用？在我看來，一年內 2 億美元的銷售額削減不會成為導致這一結果的原因。我認為這實際上更多地取決於您對該業務的長期自由現金流預期。那麼，您能否提供更多背景信息，說明是哪些變化導致了今天的減值費用？（技術難度）

Yes, Max. So the impairment charges are broken down into two components: The first component is the business unit charge. And the business unit charge really is impacted by the top line performance. So as you see the diminishing top line performance, it obviously impacts profit and the impairment charge associated with the business unit is at the profit level.

是的，馬克斯。因此，減損費用分為兩個部分：第一部分是業務單位費用。業務部門的費用確實受到營業收入績效的影響。因此，正如您所看到的，營業收入的下降顯然會影響利潤，並且與業務部門相關的減損費用處於利潤水平。

Two is, is that we're not anticipating to recover that base. So we will be stabilizing from this reduced base and then growing at some point over time. And currently, we do remain focused on the long-term 4% growth. And then at the brand level, that is all driven by sales. And so the sales performance is also getting caught up into that component of the impairment charge as well. Hopefully, that helps.

二是，我們並不期望恢復該基地。因此，我們將從這個減少的基礎開始穩定下來，然後隨著時間的推移在某個時候實現成長。目前，我們仍關注長期 4% 的成長。然後在品牌層面，一切都由銷售驅動。因此，銷售業績也會納入減損費用的這一部分。希望這能有所幫助。

We have reached end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想再次請大家發表進一步的評論或結束語。

Well, thank you all for your time and joining our call this morning. It was great to see many of you at CAGNY last week, where we were excited to share our strategy and why we are confident in the future of the company. And I think that came through loud and clear.

好吧，感謝大家抽出時間參加我們今天上午的電話會議。很高興上週在 CAGNY 見到你們，我們很高興分享我們的策略以及我們對公司未來充滿信心的原因。我認為這一點已經表達得非常清楚了。

Our legacy business continued to deliver positive results in our third quarter, building on our strong year-to-date performance and we are taking action to return the Hostess brand to growth, including the leadership change we announced today and the progress we are making on advancing our Sweet Baked Snack strategy.

我們的傳統業務在第三季度繼續取得積極成果，鞏固了年初至今的強勁業績，我們正在採取行動恢復 Hostess 品牌的增長，包括我們今天宣布的領導層變動以及我們在推進甜味烘焙零食戰略方面取得的進展。

We are delivering positive results in a dynamic, operating and consumer environment, and I am confident in our strategy and believe that we continue to be in a strong position to deliver long-term growth and increase shareholder value based on the continued momentum that you've seen and our ongoing portfolio reshape.

我們在充滿活力的營運和消費環境中取得了積極的成果，我對我們的策略充滿信心，並相信基於您所看到的持續發展勢頭和我們正在進行的投資組合重塑，我們將繼續處於有利地位，實現長期增長並增加股東價值。

All of this would not be possible without our outstanding employees. So as always, I would like to thank them for their continued hard work and dedication to our company. I hope you all have a great day. Thank you.

如果沒有我們優秀的員工，這一切都不可能實現。因此，一如既往，我要感謝他們為我們公司持續的辛勤工作和奉獻。我希望你們度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

Everyone, that does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

各位，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接，享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。