J M Smucker Co (SJM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the J.M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer session. This conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions).

    早安,歡迎參加 J.M. Smucker 公司 2025 財年第四季財報問答環節。本次電話會議正在錄音。(操作員指令)。

  • I'll now turn the conference call over to Crystal Beiting, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在,我將電話會議轉交給投資人關係和財務規劃與分析副總裁 Crystal Beiting。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Crystal Beiting - VP of Investor Relations & FP&A

    Crystal Beiting - VP of Investor Relations & FP&A

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2025 fourth quarter earnings question-and-answer session. I hope everyone had a chance to review our results as detailed in this morning's press release and management's prepared remarks, which are available on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call at the conclusion of this morning's Q&A session.

    早安,感謝您參加我們的 2025 財年第四季財報問答環節。我希望大家有機會仔細閱讀今天早上新聞稿中詳述的業績以及管理層的準備發言稿,這些內容可在我們公司網站 jmsmucker.com 上查閱。我們也將在今天上午問答環節結束時發布本次電話會議的音訊回放。

  • During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we use non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP measures in this morning's press release.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述,反映我們對未來計劃和業績的當前預期。這些聲明依賴假設和估計,實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。此外,我們使用非 GAAP 結果來評估內部績效。我鼓勵您閱讀今天早上的新聞稿中有關前瞻性聲明的完整披露以及我們的非公認會計準則指標的詳細資訊。

  • Participating on this call are Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board; and Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer.

    參加本次電話會議的有執行長兼董事會主席 Mark Smucker 和財務長 Tucker Marshall。

  • We will now open the call for questions. Operator, please queue up the first question.

    我們現在開始提問。接線員,請排隊第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Andrew Lazar from Barclays

    巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great, thanks so much. Good morning, everybody. Good morning. Mark, I think at CAGNY, you and Tucker mentioned that the company could have delivered an above algorithm EPS growth year in fiscal '26 if it were not for higher green coffee costs. if we exclude the $0.80 impact from coffee inflation and pricing and also the $0.25 impact from tariff, I guess, EPS is still expected to be lower year-over-year at the midpoint. So I guess I'm curious what has changed since then? And sort of what drives this new more subdued outlook? And I guess, would you consider this new EPS base as sort of derisk, so to speak?

    太好了,非常感謝。大家早安。早安.馬克,我想在 CAGNY,你和塔克提到,如果不是因為生咖啡成本上升,公司本來可以在 26 財年實現高於演算法的 EPS 成長。如果我們排除咖啡通膨和定價帶來的 0.80 美元的影響以及關稅帶來的 0.25 美元的影響,我猜,每股收益預計在中點仍會同比下降。所以我很好奇從那時起發生了什麼變化?那麼,是什麼導致了這種新的、更溫和的觀點呢?我想,您是否會認為這個新的 EPS 基礎是一種降低風險的方式?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Andrew, this is Tucker. You are correct. If you take the midpoint of our guidance range of $9 on an adjusted earnings per share basis, and you add back the $0.25 impact of tariffs, which is new news from CAGNY, along with the outlook for price elasticity of demand associated with green coffee inflation of $0.80, you'd be in the low $10.

    安德魯,這是塔克。你是對的。如果您以調整後的每股收益為基礎,採用我們指導範圍的中點 9 美元,再加上 0.25 美元的關稅影響(這是來自 CAGNY 的新消息),再加上與綠咖啡通膨相關的需求價格彈性前景 0.80 美元,那麼您將處於 10 美元以下。

  • And really what has changed is a couple of things. One, the importance of ongoing marketing investment to support our key growth platforms, specifically around Café Bustelo and Uncrustables. That is a $0.30 investment. And then also the new news as it relates to the performance within our Sweet Bake stack segment, where segment profit will be down on a comparable basis, which is about another $0.20 impact, and that would put you well over $0.50.

    而真正改變的是一些事情。第一,持續的行銷投資對於支援我們的關鍵成長平台(特別是圍繞 Café Bustelo 和 Uncrustables)非常重要。這是一項 0.30 美元的投資。然後還有與我們的 Sweet Bake 堆疊部門的表現相關的新消息,該部門的利潤將在可比基礎上下降,這又將產生約 0.20 美元的影響,這將遠遠超過 0.50 美元。

  • And then I would just acknowledge that in this environment, we do find it important to provide guidance, both the top line and bottom line. But we also think it's prudent that we take a very cautious approach and make sure that we have a wide range to not only reflect where we see our financial plan or outlook for the year, but also to be balanced on both sides.

    然後我只想承認,在這種環境下,我們確實發現提供指導很重要,包括頂線和底線。但我們也認為,採取非常謹慎的態度是明智之舉,並確保我們擁有廣泛的範圍,不僅可以反映我們對今年的財務計劃或前景的看法,而且還可以保持兩方面的平衡。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great. And then I realize coffee elasticity thus far has come in a bit better than planned. I think you had been planning for maybe higher than, let's call it, historical elasticity going forward, just given the magnitude of incremental pricing that is still to come. And I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about historical levels of elasticity. So I guess my question is, why not take a more prudent view on coffee elasticity just in light of all the pricing coming through? Thanks so much.

    偉大的。然後我意識到到目前為止咖啡的彈性比計劃的要好一些。我認為,考慮到未來增量定價的幅度,您計劃的未來彈性可能高於歷史彈性。我認為您在準備好的演講中談到了歷史彈性水平。所以我想我的問題是,為什麼不根據所有的定價來更謹慎地看待咖啡彈性呢?非常感謝。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Andrew, it's a great question. And we do believe, overall, we are being prudent and balanced in our outlook particularly with respect to our coffee portfolio. And if you think about our outlook for the year, we have just around 20% net pricing factored into our FY '26 outlook, against around a negative 10% volume impact due to that price elasticity of demand factor.

    是的,安德魯,這是一個很好的問題。我們確實相信,總體而言,我們的前景是謹慎和平衡的,特別是在我們的咖啡產品組合方面。如果你考慮我們對今年的展望,你會發現我們在 26 財年展望中只考慮了約 20% 的淨定價,而需求因素的價格彈性對銷量的影響約為負 10%。

  • And on average, that is an elasticity of 0.5, which is consistent with historical. But I would say that's on average over a fiscal year, and that's on average across the portfolio. In our first quarter, we will experience a greater elasticity factor as a result of taking pricing in our first quarter and early second quarter.

    平均而言,彈性為 0.5,與歷史情況一致。但我想說,這是整個財政年度的平均值,也是整個投資組合的平均值。在第一季度,由於我們在第一季和第二季初採取了定價措施,因此我們將經歷更大的彈性係數。

  • And then secondly, also acknowledging that our first quarter will also have its most negative cost price outlook as we match the timing of pricing against the ultimate cost for the first quarter.

    其次,我們也承認,由於我們將定價時間與第一季的最終成本相匹配,因此第一季的成本價格前景也將最為負面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Goldman from JPMorgan

    摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼

  • Ken Goldman - Analyst

    Ken Goldman - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, thank you. I wanted to ask a little bit about Hostess, in particular, the SKU and display rationalizations that you highlighted. I'm just hoping for a little bit more color, if possible, on kind of the size, the impact, basically, which products, which channels might be affected? Kind of any detail you can provide so we can kind of get a little bit of a better vision of what to expect for the broader brand.

    你好,早安,謝謝。我想問一些關於 Hostess 的問題,特別是您強調的 SKU 和展示合理化。如果可以的話,我只是希望能夠更詳細地說明其規模、影響,基本上,哪些產品、哪些管道可能會受到影響?您可以提供任何細節,以便我們可以更好地了解更廣泛的品牌的期望。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Ken. It's Mark. I can't give you specifics on brands and products, but the way I would couch it is that we need to focus on the largest brands and related innovation in those brands. So think Donettes and cupcakes primarily because both of those are number one in their respective segments. Twinkies is, of course, important.

    謝謝,肯。是馬克。我無法向您提供有關品牌和產品的具體信息,但我想說的是,我們需要關注最大的品牌以及這些品牌的相關創新。因此,主要考慮 Donettes 和 cupcakes 是因為它們在各自的領域中都是第一名。當然,Twinkies 很重要。

  • But if you think about Donettes, Donettes has performed reasonably well. particularly because it's a breakfast occasion. You've seen a number of innovations that have come out around Donettes that are related.

    但如果你想想 Donettes,Donettes 的表現相當不錯,特別是因為它是一個早餐場合。您已經看到了圍繞 Donettes 出現的許多相關創新。

  • So we really need to make sure that we are focused on the platforms that are really going to drive growth, and it's really those core brands. So we're going to invest behind those core products like Donettes and cupcakes, among others.

    因此,我們確實需要確保我們專注於真正能夠推動成長的平台,也就是那些核心品牌。因此,我們將對 Donettes 和紙杯蛋糕等核心產品進行投資。

  • And then I would just maybe highlight as well. If you think about the clarity, we have a tremendous amount of clarity now on this business, and we know what we need to do to drive improvement and if I could just very quickly simplify the three pillars, you already hit on it, strengthen the portfolio, and that's around optimizing the portfolio and getting more focused.

    然後我可能也會強調一下。如果你考慮一下清晰度,我們現在對這項業務有非常清晰的認識,我們知道我們需要做什麼來推動改進,如果我可以非常快速地簡化三大支柱,你已經明白了,加強投資組合,這就是優化投資組合併更加專注。

  • The second thing is elevating execution, and that's very simply around a dedicated sales force and streamlined operations by closing and consolidating the Indianapolis facility that will improve profit over time.

    第二件事是提高執行力,這很簡單,就是透過關閉和合併印第安納波利斯工廠來建立一支專門的銷售隊伍並簡化運營,這將隨著時間的推移提高利潤。

  • And then the last thing is quite simply brand building. and that's around reigniting growth, investing in the brands. Obviously, we redesigned the packaging recently, but it's really about supporting these brands and being laser-focused on what we have to go do.

    最後一件事就是品牌建設,即重新激發成長,投資品牌。顯然,我們最近重新設計了包裝,但這實際上是為了支持這些品牌並專注於我們必須做的事情。

  • Ken Goldman - Analyst

    Ken Goldman - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a quick follow-up on that. I know the -- we don't want to relitigate the past in a way, but one of the stories on Hostess, when it was a stand-alone company was the excitement of new products, the fulfillment of the opportunity of getting displays in stores where it didn't previously have it just philosophically, we're taking a step back, is it possible that the brand went a little too far in terms of lateral products or going into stores or channels where maybe it didn't have the right to win. I just wanted to get a little bit of a better sense for how you think the brand stands now in terms of kind of where "should be playing."

    好的。然後對此進行快速跟進。我知道——我們不想以某種方式重新審理過去,但關於 Hostess 的一個故事是,當它還是一家獨立公司時,新產品的推出令人興奮,有機會在以前沒有的商店展示產品,只是從哲學上講,我們退一步考慮,該品牌是否可能在橫向產品方面走得太遠,或者進入可能沒有權利取勝的商店或渠道。我只是想更了解一下,您認為該品牌現在處於什麼位置,應該發揮什麼作用。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Sure. So first of all, just taking maybe a quick step back, snacking is still very important. If you think about consumers like 70% of consumers still consume two snacks a day. Hostess plays across multiple occasions, right? I just mentioned the breakfast occasion, but of course, they are different dayparts.

    當然。首先,退一步來說,零食仍然非常重要。如果你考慮一下消費者,70% 的消費者每天仍然會吃兩次零食。女主人在多個場合都有演出,對嗎?我剛才提到了早餐場合,但當然,它們是不同的時段。

  • And -- so we fundamentally believe that sweet snacks continue to be a very important category. And although we do view that it's going to take some time to obviously stabilize the brand and get it back to growth. We still are optimistic about our progress and the actions that we are taking.

    因此,我們從根本上相信甜食仍然是一個非常重要的類別。儘管我們確實認為,穩定品牌並恢復成長顯然需要一些時間。我們對我們的進展和正在採取的行動仍然感到樂觀。

  • So I guess the short answer to your question, Ken, is focus. And so there is a need for us to just to continue to focus on those components of the portfolio where we can drive growth and incremental innovation that is related to the core.

    所以我想,肯,對你的問題的簡短回答就是專注。因此,我們需要持續關注投資組合中那些可以推動與核心相關的成長和漸進式創新的組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo from Bank of America

    美國銀行的 Peter Galbo

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Tucker, I just wanted to clarify maybe one of the points you made on pricing for the year. So I think you said about 20 points or so to the coffee segment. And I think your guidance implies or has 9 points to the total company. So just wanted to understand the magnitude of the other price increases that you called out for the year, particularly around Uncrustables and then maybe also -- I think there's a pretty sizable coffee business in international away-from-home. So any clarity there would be helpful.

    塔克,我只是想澄清一下你關於年度定價的觀點之一。所以我認為您對咖啡部分說了大約 20 點左右。我認為您的指導暗示或對整個公司有 9 分。所以只是想了解一下您今年提到的其他價格上漲的幅度,特別是圍繞 Uncrustables 的價格上漲,然後也許還有——我認為國際上離家在外的咖啡業務規模相當大。因此,任何澄清都會有幫助。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So the largest driver of pricing within that 9% relates to our green coffee portfolio, as we've communicated -- the other pricing action in Frozen Handheld and Spreads around the Uncrustables brand to recover increased cost is in the low single digits.

    是的。因此,正如我們所傳達的,這 9% 中最大的定價驅動因素與我們的綠色咖啡組合有關——為收回增加的成本,對冷凍手持產品和 Uncrustables 品牌週邊產品採取的其他定價行動處於低個位數。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Okay, got it. And so the balance again comes through that away from home business that has coffee in it, just to be really clear.

    好的,明白了。因此,為了更加清楚起見,平衡再次透過包含咖啡的外出業務來實現。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, that's correct. That's going to feel more like high single digits. You're correct.

    是的,正確。這感覺更像是高個位數。你是對的。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Terrific. And then, Mark, on Hostess and the revised long-term outlook, I mean, I guess the pushback or the question we're still getting this morning is, look, you move the long-term growth rate from 4% to 3%. Obviously, the near-term data still has a pretty wide gap to that.

    好的。好的。了不起。然後,馬克,關於 Hostess 和修訂後的長期前景,我的意思是,我想我們今天早上仍然遇到的阻力或問題是,看,你將長期增長率從 4% 提高到 3%。顯然,近期數據與此仍有相當大的差距。

  • So just what gives you the confidence that the renewed kind of long-term outlook is conservative enough relative to the expectations, just given what we don't continue to see kind of in the near-term data.

    那麼,鑑於我們在短期數據中沒有繼續看到這種情況,是什麼讓您有信心相信新的長期前景相對於預期來說足夠保守呢?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Peter, I would begin by just saying the change in the long-term growth algorithm and top line for the Sweet Baked snacks portfolio from 4% to 3% is primarily driven by the outlook for the category and our need just to acknowledge that it may not grow at that mid-single-digit level that it has in the past. And it's also a reflection of how we continue to see the overall stabilization plan, inclusive of reigniting growth and making sure that we stay true to the Hostess brand strengthen the core and bring along the innovation that supports the core.

    是的。彼得,首先我想說的是,甜烘焙零食組合的長期增長算法和營業額從 4% 降至 3% 主要是受該類別前景的影響,我們需要承認,它可能不會像過去那樣以中等個位數的水平增長。這也反映了我們如何繼續看到整體穩定計劃,包括重新激發成長並確保我們忠於 Hostess 品牌,加強核心並帶來支持核心的創新。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning, I was just curious maybe if you could expand a bit on where you're going to be pricing in the coffee portfolio. Obviously, it's a big number. Should we be assuming that the entire portfolio will be seeing this pricing? Is this going to focus more on the rosin ground side given that you have the higher direct commodity exposure. So any additional context on how big pricing will be relative to your specific businesses within coffee?

    嘿,大家早上好,我只是好奇,您是否可以稍微詳細說明一下咖啡組合的定價方式。顯然,這是一個很大的數字。我們是否應該假設整個投資組合都會看到這個定價?鑑於您有更高的直接商品接觸量,這是否會更專注於松香地面方面?那麼,關於定價對於您在咖啡領域的具體業務來說會有多大的影響,您還有什麼其他資訊嗎?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So we are taking pricing across the entire coffee portfolio. That's reflected in the around 20% net pricing for the full fiscal year. Those actions came early Q1 and will also come in early Q2. And those actions not only cover green coffee commodity inflation, but also support recovering tariffs associated with our green coffee.

    是的。因此,我們對整個咖啡組合進行定價。這反映在整個財政年度約 20% 的淨定價中。這些舉措已於第一季初實施,並將於第二季初實施。這些行動不僅涵蓋了生咖啡商品通膨,而且還支持恢復與我們的生咖啡相關的關稅。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. That makes sense. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned an improvement in Sweet Baked into the back half of the year as you implement some of these initiatives to stabilize the business. Can you just help us understand why that cadence gets so much better into the back half? Are you contemplating easier comps?

    好的。這很有道理。在準備好的發言中,您提到,隨著您實施一些舉措來穩定業務,Sweet Baked 在下半年取得了進步。您能否幫助我們理解為什麼後半段的節奏會變得更好?您是否正在考慮更簡單的搭配?

  • Is there some innovation? Is there a lessening of any rationalization efforts that you're putting in? So just maybe some context on the sequential improvement that you're expecting in that business through the year per your prepared remarks.

    有沒有什麼創新?您為實現合理化所做的努力是否有所減少?因此,根據您準備好的發言,您可能對該業務在全年的連續改善有所期待。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So we see the Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio improving over time as a result of our stabilization efforts that are focused first on stabilizing share performance and improving share performance; and two, improving the profitability by quarter of the overall business and the profitability improved by actions that we're taking. One example of that is the closure of the Indianapolis facility, along with looking at the overall portfolio as well of products. And so that's really why it gives us confidence. And then to your point, we will be lapping some comps as we move forward as well.

    是的。因此,我們看到甜烘焙零食產品組合隨著時間的推移而不斷改善,這是我們穩定努力的結果,我們的努力首先側重於穩定股價表現和提高股價表現;其次,提高整個業務的季度盈利能力以及通過我們採取的行動提高盈利能力。其中一個例子就是關閉印第安納波利斯工廠,同時檢視整體產品組合。這就是它給予我們信心的真正原因。然後回到你的觀點,隨著我們前進,我們也會進行一些比較。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks so much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow from TD Cowen

    TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow

  • Robert Moscow - Analyst

    Robert Moscow - Analyst

  • A couple of questions. The first on coffee, just looking at retail tracking data for the month of May, the volume is up according to Nielsen data anyway. So my first question is, do you expect some kind of reversal in that in June and July because so far, so good in terms of consumers reacting to your higher pricing according to the data anyway.

    有幾個問題。首先關於咖啡,僅查看五月份的零售追蹤數據,根據尼爾森的數據,咖啡銷售無論如何都是上升的。所以我的第一個問題是,您是否預計 6 月和 7 月會出現某種逆轉,因為到目前為止,根據數據,消費者對您們提高定價的反應很好。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, Rob, it's Mark. The first thing I would say is we're really pleased with our performance on coffee across the portfolio broadly. I mean, Dunkin' or Dunkin' pardon me, Bustelo is on fire. And [olders] has performed reasonably well as well. Dunkin'.

    是的,羅布,我是馬克。我想說的第一件事是,我們對整個投資組合中咖啡的表現感到非常滿意。我的意思是,Dunkin' 或 Dunkin' 對不起,Bustelo 很火爆。而且 [olders] 的表現也相當不錯。唐恩都樂。

  • We've actually seen some stabilization along with K-Cups due to more normalized relative price points.

    由於相對價格點更加正常化,我們實際上已經看到 K-Cups 有所穩定。

  • So a couple of observations. First of all, the category is functioning as it should, right, in terms of relative pricing being in line and the other thing, too, is just coffee is still relatively affordable. And obviously, folks are still consuming caffeinated beverages and coffee on average, brewed coffee is still about $0.10 a cup, right? So it's extremely affordable. And we believe that the combination of affordability the fact that our portfolio meets multiple consumer needs, whether that's value premium, form, liquid, et cetera, and the fact that consumers continue to consume coffee at the same rates, about 70% of cups are consumed at home.

    有幾點觀察。首先,該類別的運作正常,就相對定價而言,另一方面,咖啡仍然相對便宜。顯然,人們仍然在消費含咖啡因的飲料,平均而言,煮好的咖啡每杯的價格仍然約為 0.10 美元,對嗎?所以它的價格非常實惠。我們相信,價格實惠、我們的產品組合滿足多種消費者需求(無論是價值溢價、形式、液體等等)以及消費者繼續以相同的速度消費咖啡的事實,大約 70% 的咖啡是在家裡消費的。

  • All of those factors supported by our brand building efforts and particularly the growth of Bustelo continue to give us confidence that we can and should continue to perform in the category.

    所有這些由我們的品牌建設努力以及特別是 Bustelo 的成長所支持的因素繼續讓我們相信我們能夠並且應該繼續在該類別中表現出色。

  • Robert Moscow - Analyst

    Robert Moscow - Analyst

  • Okay. Well, here's the follow-up. In the transcript, it says that you experienced elevated trade recognition in sweet baked snacks and it was unexpected. Can you give a little more detail as to why it was unexpected. I would think that -- I think what happens is you accrue for trade expenses during the year and then you kind of leveled them out in the last fourth -- the fourth quarter or it did play out differently than that.

    好的。好吧,這是後續內容。記錄中說,你們在甜食烘焙零食方面的貿易認可度有所提高,這是出乎意料的。您能否詳細說明為什麼這是出乎意料的?我認為——我認為發生的情況是,你在一年內累積了貿易費用,然後在最後一個季度——第四季度——將它們平衡,或者情況確實與此不同。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Rob, as it relates to the Sweet Baked Snacks trade recognition. It just really came a part of our year-end trade accrual recognition process. And also, I would just acknowledge that we did go live in the fall onto a combined system. And so also as a result of that, there was some extra true-up activity in the new system as well.

    是的。羅布,因為這與甜烘焙零食的貿易認可有關。它實際上只是我們年終貿易應計確認流程的一部分。而且,我還要承認,我們確實在秋季啟動了聯合系統。因此,新系統中也出現了一些額外的調整活動。

  • Robert Moscow - Analyst

    Robert Moscow - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer from Citi

    花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for the question. Maybe I could just start quickly on Hostess as well. At the Investor Day, you talked about how a big focus was going to be expanded distribution for Hostess. And you would have a better idea of kind of how that went in another quarter or 2. So we're kind of, I think, up to that point. Based on some of the comments today, it sounds like maybe that's not as big of a growth driver as it might have potentially seen, but just any update on what you're seeing on the distribution side, especially for some of the innovation that you've previously discussed?

    你好,謝謝你的提問。也許我也可以快速開始 Hostess。在投資者日上,您談到將重點擴大 Hostess 的分銷範圍。您將會對下一個或兩個季度的情況有更好的了解。所以我認為我們已經達到那個程度了。根據今天的一些評論,聽起來這可能不是一個潛在的成長動力,但您在分銷方面看到的任何更新,特別是對於您之前討論過的一些創新?

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Tom, it's Mark. Yes, we have seen good progress on that front, particularly with some of our larger traditional retailers. We actually have seen, as they've started to reset shelves. We are getting our fair share and actually building in things like permanent seasonal space on shelves that allow for us to actually rotate seasonal products in and out of permanent shelving -- that's on top of getting some incremental display. So that will continue to help support the business going forward.

    湯姆,我是馬克。是的,我們在這方面看到了良好的進展,特別是一些較大的傳統零售商。我們實際上已經看到,他們已經開始重新設定貨架。我們正在獲得公平的份額,並在貨架上實際建造永久性的季節性空間,以便我們能夠將季節性產品輪換進出永久性貨架——這是在獲得一些增量展示的基礎上的。因此,這將繼續幫助支持未來的業務發展。

  • And to the extent that we see some consumer stabilization that is supportive of the convenience channel that will also support as well.

    並且,我們看到消費者的某種程度的穩定對便利管道提供了支持,這也將起到一定的作用。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay. And then wanted to ask on the tariff side. Beyond green coffee, could you give an update on your main tariff exposure and how you plan to address it? And that $0.25 net headwind -- does that include coffee? Or when you talk about coffee inflation, that's just kind of embedded in more of the coffee commentary.

    好的。然後想問關稅方面的問題。除了生咖啡之外,您能否介紹一下您的主要關稅風險以及您計劃如何應對?那麼 0.25 美元的淨逆風——包括咖啡嗎?或者當您談論咖啡通膨時,這只是更多地嵌入在咖啡評論中。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Tom, there's two parts to your question. So let me start with the first part. The areas where we see exposure from tariffs are, first of all, in direct materials. Within Directory materials, the primary driver there is green coffee which we view as an unavailable natural resource in the United States. So we procure from Brazil and Vietnam, among others.

    湯姆,你的問題分成兩個部分。那麼讓我從第一部分開始。我們看到受到關稅影響的領域首先是直接材料。在目錄材料中,主要的驅動因素是綠咖啡,我們認為它是美國無法獲得的自然資源。因此我們從巴西、越南等國採購。

  • The second area is retaliatory tariffs. And so those are products that we produced in the United States and sell in the Canadian marketplace. Examples of that would be peanut butter, ice cream toppings and also coffee as well. And then you can also think of the next component of co-manufactured product. That's a product that is produced outside of the United States.

    第二個領域是報復性關稅。這些都是我們在美國生產並在加拿大市場銷售的產品。例如花生醬、冰淇淋配料以及咖啡。然後您也可以考慮共同製造產品的下一個組件。這是在美國以外生產的產品。

  • And the two examples there are liquid coffee and wet cat food, -- and then the last bucket is capital goods or capital items that we put in our manufacturing plants as well that come largely from the European Union.

    這裡舉兩個例子:液體咖啡和濕貓糧,最後一個類別是我們放入製造廠的資本貨物或資本項目,這些主要來自歐盟。

  • The greatest exposure that we have in the portfolio is across those first three areas, but the leading driver is green coffee. The approach will be to price for the tariff and then to factor in an elasticity of demand assumption and the $0.25 impact is the net impact after making a pricing decision, again, on a responsible basis and/or seeking to find cost and productivity efforts as well, but then just acknowledging that we will have to take pricing and then making an assumption as it relates to price less tissue demand as noted.

    我們的投資組合中最大的投資集中在前三個領域,但主要驅動力是綠咖啡。該方法將根據關稅定價,然後考慮需求彈性假設,而 0.25 美元的影響是做出定價決策後的淨影響,同樣,在負責任的基礎上和/或尋求找到成本和生產力努力,但隨後只是承認我們必須採取定價,然後做出與價格減去衛生紙需求相關的假設,如上所述。

  • So that's what's embedded in the net $0.25 impact. And I would also share that the net $0.25 impact predominantly over-indexes to coffee.

    這就是淨 0.25 美元影響中所蘊含的內容。我還想說的是,淨 0.25 美元的影響主要與咖啡有關。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Thank you for that.

    謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Megan Clapp from Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普 (Megan Clapp)。

  • Megan Clap - Analyst

    Megan Clap - Analyst

  • Maybe just a couple of follow-ups for me. So first one would be a follow-up to Andy's first question. At CAGNY, I think you had talked about base business momentum or growth as a tailwind to 2026. You took out growth, if I'm not mistaken. And if we do the math on the bridge, laying out all of the things that you pointed out.

    對我來說也許只是一些後續行動。因此第一個問題是對安迪第一個問題的跟進。在 CAGNY,我認為您曾談到基礎業務動能或成長是 2026 年的順風。如果我沒記錯的話,您已經消除了成長。如果我們在橋上做數學計算,就會列出您指出的所有事情。

  • I think at the midpoint of the guide, it would imply a very little benefit from the base business, maybe even negative. So 2-part question. Is that math kind of consistent with what you've embedded in the guide as it relates to the base business, maybe minimal growth? And second, if that is true, what's changed around the base business such that you no longer would expect growth in fiscal '26?

    我認為,在指南的中點,這意味著基礎業務的收益很小,甚至可能是負面的。所以問題分為兩部分。這種數學計算是否與您在指南中嵌入的與基礎業務(可能是最低限度的增長)相關的內容一致?其次,如果這是真的,那麼基礎業務發生了哪些變化,以致您不再預期 26 財年會實現成長?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Megan, as we came out of CAGNY, we acknowledged the midpoint of our guidance range, actually came out of our third quarter earnings call of about $10 for fiscal year '25 and above algorithm growth would be for us, greater than $0.50. And so simple math would say you'd probably land somewhere between and the high $10 absent the factors that we have called out. And if you think about those factors that we've called out, you have $0.80 associated with price elasticity of demand for green coffee. I don't know what estimates were factoring in.

    梅根,我們剛結束CAGNY會議,我們確認了我們指導區間的中點,實際上,我們在第三季度財報電話會議上得出的結論是,2025財年的預期收益約為10美元,而演算法增長對我們來說將超過0.50美元。所以,簡單的計算表明,如果不考慮我們提到的那些因素,你的預期收益可能會在10美元左右。如果你考慮我們提到的那些因素,你會發現與綠咖啡需求價格彈性相關的是 0.80 美元。我不知道估算中考慮了哪些因素。

  • Two is you also had a $0.25 impact of tariffs, which was new news. So that's in excess of $1. And then we did acknowledge that it's important to demonstrate momentum from a brand standpoint. And so we're increasing our marketing on Café Bustelo and Uncrustables. And then also Sweet Baked Snacks is softer than anticipated.

    二是關稅還產生了 0.25 美元的影響,這是新消息。所以這超過了 1 美元。然後我們確實承認從品牌的角度展示動力很重要。因此,我們正在加大對 Café Bustelo 和 Uncrustables 的行銷能力。而且甜烘焙小點心也比預期的軟。

  • And so maybe some of the things that weren't thought of at the time is just where Sweet Baked Snacks would be positioned.

    因此,也許當時沒有想到的一些事情就是 Sweet Baked Snacks 的定位。

  • Two is some of these external factors that we discussed -- and then three, just an acknowledgment that we do see continued momentum in frozen handheld and spreads. We do see strength of portfolio in Pet, largely driven by cap food right now as we navigate the discretionary nature of pet treating and then just seeing continued momentum on our combined portfolio international and away from home. So hopefully, that just gives you some context about a coming out of CAGNY, but really where we stand today due to some of those external factors.

    二是我們討論過的一些外部因素 - 然後第三,只是承認我們確實看到凍結手持設備和利差的持續增長勢頭。我們確實看到了寵物投資組合的實力,這主要是由於目前寵物食品的強勁增長,因為我們了解寵物治療的自由裁量權,然後看到我們的國際和海外投資組合繼續保持增長勢頭。所以希望這能給你一些關於 CAGNY 的背景信息,但實際上我們今天的處境是由於一些外部因素造成的。

  • Megan Clap - Analyst

    Megan Clap - Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then a follow-up to Rob's question earlier, just on 1Q. Maybe for the total company, you talked about flat comparable sales.

    好的。很公平。這很有幫助。然後是 Rob 之前關於 1Q 的問題的後續問題。也許對於整個公司而言,您談論的是持平的可比銷售額。

  • Just looking at overall standard data quarter-to-date to remain -- it's pretty far above that. So is there something we should be thinking about relative to the standard data that pulling -- should pull that down closer to flat in the first quarter.

    僅看本季迄今為止的整體標準數據——它就遠高於這個水平。那麼,相對於標準數據,我們是否應該考慮一些事情,以便將第一季的數據拉低至接近持平。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So I think you have to acknowledge, one, flat in the first quarter. You will see some momentum in coffee and Frozen Handheld and Spreads and top line. At will have a little bit softness just due to the ongoing discretionary nature of pet treating. You will be lapping the impact of divestiture activity within the Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio.

    是的。所以我認為你必須承認,第一季持平。您會看到咖啡、冷凍手持產品、塗抹醬和營收呈現一定成長動能。由於寵物護理的持續自由裁量性,因此會具有一點柔軟度。您將會感受到 Sweet Baked Snacks 產品組合中資產剝離活動的影響。

  • you'll see continued momentum within International and Away -- from home.

    您會看到國際和客場賽事持續保持強勁勢頭。

  • But on the bottom line, what I want to acknowledge is is that we are going to see a decline year-over-year as noted in our prepared remarks, and that is largely driven by the first quarter impact within our coffee portfolio. The segment profit margins in our coffee portfolio will be at their lowest level in Q1. They'll be below 20%. But they will come back on a full year basis on average to be in excess of 20%. And so it's just acknowledging the timing of pricing and the overall cost within the green coffee portfolio in Q1.

    但歸根結底,我想承認的是,正如我們在準備好的評論中所指出的,我們將看到同比下降,這主要是由於第一季我們的咖啡產品組合受到的影響。我們的咖啡產品組合的分部利潤率將在第一季處於最低水準。其比例將低於20%。但以全年計算,它們的平均回報率將超過 20%。因此,這只是承認第一季綠色咖啡組合的定價時機和整體成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Grom from UBS

    瑞銀集團的 Peter Grom

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Thanks operator. Good morning everyone. Tucker, can we just walk through the SG&A guidance. You touched on the higher marketing investment, which I think was outlined for $40 million. But are there other components or costs that are also moving higher? It just would seem that after taking the higher marketing into account, there's not much of a benefit from some of the cost takeout that you outlined in the release.

    謝謝接線生。大家早安。塔克,我們可以簡單介紹一下銷售、一般和行政費用指南嗎?您提到了更高的行銷投資,我認為預計為 4000 萬美元。但其他組件或成本是否也在增加?看起來,在考慮到更高的行銷成本之後,您在新聞稿中概述的一些成本削減並沒有帶來太多好處。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So what we're seeing is some impact of lapping TSA income and also the reset of incentive programs would also be factored into SG&A, but we are seeing cost and productivity gains within SG&A, and we've isolated the marketing, as you've noted.

    是的。因此,我們看到的是,TSA 收入重疊和激勵計劃重置的一些影響也會被計入銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A),但我們看到銷售、一般和行政費用中的成本和生產率有所提高,而且我們已經將營銷分離出來,正如您所說。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe just a question or a follow-up on phasing, a tough start to the year as you just outlined to Megan's question from a bottom line perspective. But you mentioned sequential improvement through the balance of the year. Can you maybe just provide some guardrails in terms of how we should be thinking about the phasing? Did the decline just get less severe?

    偉大的。然後也許只是一個問題或關於分階段的後續問題,正如您從底線角度概述梅根的問題一樣,今年的開始很艱難。但您提到了今年餘下的連續改善。您能否就我們應該如何考慮分階段實施提供一些指導?衰退是否已經不再那麼嚴重了?

  • Or do you anticipate returning to bottom line growth at some point in the balance of the year?

    或者您預計在今年餘下的某個時候恢復底線增長?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So speaking with respect to adjusted earnings per share sort of flow through the year, our lowest or softest quarter will be Q1 based on the comments that I previously made largely around our green coffee portfolio. We won't see a decline in the second quarter and third quarters as well, but those quarters will be consistent from an EPS standpoint and then we will see growth in our fourth quarter, as noted.

    當然。因此,就全年調整後的每股收益而言,根據我之前主要圍繞綠色咖啡投資組合所發表的評論,我們最低或最疲軟的季度將是第一季。我們也不會看到第二季和第三季出現下滑,但從每股盈餘的角度來看,這兩個季度將保持一致,然後我們將在第四季度看到成長,正如所指出的。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

    太好了,非常感謝。我會傳達的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

    來自伯恩斯坦的 Alexia Howard。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • So two questions. First of all, you mentioned the pace of innovation beginning to pick up, and I think you talked about $100 million from products launched over the last year. How does that compare to pre-COVID levels, which I think were generally higher across the industry? And where do you expect them to get back to? And then I have a follow-up.

    所以有兩個問題。首先,您提到創新步伐開始加快,我記得您談到了去年推出的產品的價值 1 億美元。與疫情之前的水平相比如何?我認為整個產業的疫情之前水準普遍較高。您預計他們會回到哪裡?然後我有一個後續問題。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Alexia, it's Mark. Thanks for the question. $100 million is great. I mean it's definitely on the high side. We usually talk about historically innovation across products launched in the last three years.

    亞歷克西亞,我是馬克。謝謝你的提問。 1億美元很棒。我的意思是,它的價格肯定偏高。我們通常談論過去三年推出的產品的歷史創新。

  • And in the last 3, it's more like $250 million, $250 million. So $100 million in one year is actually very strong. And it's really, again, driven by focusing on the right thing.

    而在最後 3 年,這個數字更像是 2.5 億美元,2.5 億美元。所以一年賺 1 億美元其實是非常可觀的。這確實又一次受到關注正確的事情的驅動。

  • So if you -- whether it's peanut butter chocolate spread on Jif, whether it's new flavors on Uncrustables, liquid coffee on Bustelo, really strong performance on the innovation in both Mimics and Milk-Bone. All of those things we're doing very well. And -- and I'm really proud of the fact that we continue to innovate in the right spaces because we're focused on the consumer and paying attention to what their needs are and what they want. And so our ability to continue to deliver that is key to our success.

    所以如果你——無論是 Jif 上的花生醬巧克力醬,還是 Uncrustables 上的新口味,Bustelo 上的液體咖啡,Mimics 和 Milk-Bone 的創新表現都非常強勁。所有這些事情我們都做得很好。而且——我真的為我們在正確的領域中不斷創新而感到自豪,因為我們專注於消費者並關注他們的需求和他們想要的東西。因此,我們能否繼續實現這一目標是我們成功的關鍵。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • And as a follow-up, just coming back to Hostess. I think you talked about the value-seeking behavior on the part of consumers and the weakness in the C-store channel has been the key drivers of category weakness. How do you factor in or how does your diagnosis extend into things like the uptake of GLP-1 drugs, RFK juniors make America healthy again agenda things like cutbacks in a state level Snap spending approvals. It just feels as though there's a lot more drivers in there. And I'm curious about how that's leading you to manage the business differently.

    作為後續,我們回到 Hostess。我認為您談到了消費者的價值追求行為,而便利商店通路的弱點是導致品類疲軟的關鍵因素。您如何考慮這些因素,或者您的診斷如何延伸到 GLP-1 藥物的吸收、RFK 青年讓美國再次健康議程等事項,例如削減州一級的 Snap 支出批准。感覺好像那裡有更多的司機。我很好奇這會如何引導您以不同的方式管理業務。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Sure. It's a great question. We continue to believe and watch the trends on snacking as I mentioned earlier, snacking is still very important. Consumers are going to continue to snack and they will continue to snack, but looking for or, in some cases, different things. It might be smaller portion sizes in some cases, might be less sugar.

    當然。這是一個很好的問題。我們繼續相信並關注零食的趨勢,正如我之前提到的,零食仍然非常重要。消費者將繼續吃零食,並將繼續吃零食,但會尋找不同的東西。在某些情況下,份量可能會更小,含糖量也可能會更少。

  • And we just have to make sure that what we remain focused on is providing the consumer with choice and options. And so as we think about this and working with our policymakers and continuing to look at trends. As long as we stay focused on the consumer and making sure that our portfolio meets those needs, we feel confident that we will continue to grow.

    我們只需要確保我們始終專注於為消費者提供選擇和選項。因此,當我們思考這個問題並與我們的政策制定者合作並繼續關注趨勢時。只要我們始終專注於消費者並確保我們的產品組合滿足這些需求,我們就有信心繼續成長。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Thank you very much, I'll pass it on.

    非常感謝,我會傳達的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the question. First, I just wanted to test a bit your confidence in driving volume mix growth in both the Meow Mix and the Milk-Bone brands this year just in light of current trends and in light of kind of the discretionary headwinds that Tucker had mentioned. So just kind of the building blocks to get back to positive on those brands would be great.

    大家好,早安。謝謝你的提問。首先,我只是想根據當前的趨勢以及塔克提到的自由裁量逆風來測試一下您對今年推動 Meow Mix 和 Milk-Bone 品牌銷售增長的信心。因此,為恢復這些品牌的積極性奠定基礎將會很棒。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Sure. Meow Mix is supported by an increased cat population, right, and just great brand-building efforts and share of voice and good innovation. So I think the leading position in dry cat, we will be able to maintain that and support it through growth.

    當然。Meow Mix 的支持來自於貓數量的增加,對吧,以及出色的品牌建設努力、聲音份額和良好的創新。因此,我認為我們將能夠保持並在乾催化劑領域保持領先地位,並透過成長來支持它。

  • Similarly, on Milk-Bone, Steve, we are projecting getting milk bone back to growth this year. It's really going to remain, again, brand building, focusing on innovation, ensuring that we're providing the consumer what they're looking for. And just Keep in mind on Milk Bone that we play in so many segments and treating occasions and all the way from value base biscuits up to more premium things like dental. The soft and chewy segment has been very good. And as long as we continue to innovate in the right places and support the brand, we have a lot of confidence in Milk-Bone as well.

    同樣,對於 Milk-Bone,史蒂夫,我們預計今年 Milk-Bone 會恢復生長。我們仍將致力於品牌建立、注重創新,確保為消費者提供他們想要的東西。請記住,我們在 Milk Bone 涉足瞭如此多的領域和治療場合,從廉價的餅乾到牙科等更高端的產品。柔軟且耐嚼的部分非常好。只要我們繼續在正確的地方進行創新並支持品牌,我們對 Milk-Bone 也充滿信心。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Steve, I would just acknowledge sort of two technical items. One, in the third quarter of our fiscal year '25, we had the plant shutdown associated with Milk-Bone. And then in the fourth quarter of our fiscal year '25, we also had the inventory destocking by certain retailers.

    史蒂夫,我只想承認兩個技術問題。首先,在 2025 財年第三季度,我們關閉了與 Milk-Bone 相關的工廠。然後,在 2025 財年的第四季度,我們也看到某些零售商減少了庫存。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. Understood. Appreciate that. And then, I guess, sort of a derivative question, you offered similar commentary in terms of positive volume growth on Bustelo, which Mark you rightly said is on fire.

    是的。好的。明白了。非常感謝。然後,我想,這是一個衍生問題,您對 Bustelo 的正銷量增長做出了類似的評論,馬克,您說得對,Bustelo 很火爆。

  • I guess just in light of that confidence, I guess, just the elasticity that implies on the balance of the portfolio. Just it seems notably worse than that 0.5 you called out for the totality. So just a little bit more color and context there, if you could.

    我想,正是鑑於這種信心,我猜,這恰恰意味著投資組合的平衡具有彈性。只是看起來比你所說的總體 0.5 還要糟糕得多。因此,如果可以的話,請提供更多一些顏色和背景。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I think, Steve, really what that plays into is just on average, we have 0.5elasticity across the portfolio for the full year. But when you have a brand like Café Bustelo that continues to demonstrate great momentum and growth it just implies a little bit higher factor on other aspects of the portfolio, and that's why we get to an on average for the overall segment.

    是的。史蒂夫,我認為,這實際上起到的作用只是平均而言,我們全年的投資組合彈性為 0.5。但是,當你擁有像 Café Bustelo 這樣的品牌並持續展現出強勁的發展勢頭和成長時,它就意味著在產品組合的其他方面會稍微高一點,這就是為什麼我們會對整個細分市場進行平均。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Okay, all right very good, thank you.

    好的,好的,非常好,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Marks from Jefferies

    傑富瑞的史考特·馬克斯

  • Scott Marks - Analyst

    Scott Marks - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. Wanted to follow up on Steve's question on pet. I know you called out the inventory reduction at some retailers Wondering if you can share maybe magnitude of impact there? And then if there's anything maybe more than just some of the discretionary spend headwinds that you noted?

    嘿,早安。非常感謝您回答這些問題。想跟進史蒂夫關於寵物的問題。我知道您呼籲一些零售商減少庫存,想知道您是否可以分享那裡的影響程度?那麼,除了您提到的一些可自由支配的支出不利因素之外,是否還有其他因素呢?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So in the fourth quarter associated with the pet portfolio, it was around $20 million associated with the inventory destocking at certain retailers.

    當然。因此,在第四季度,與寵物投資組合相關的部分零售商的庫存削減成本約為 2,000 萬美元。

  • Scott Marks - Analyst

    Scott Marks - Analyst

  • Got it. And was that specifically tied to kind of the just broader consumer pullback in some of that discretionary spend? Or is there maybe something else involved that.

    知道了。這是否與消費者在某些可自由支配支出方面的普遍減少有具體關聯?或者可能還涉及其他事情。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • We believe that it was more retailer-specific or driven, not necessarily driven by the overall consumer because we still see strong momentum for our overall pet treating portfolio as well.

    我們認為,這更多的是由零售商特定或驅動的,而不一定是由整體消費者驅動的,因為我們仍然看到整體寵物治療產品組合的強勁勢頭。

  • Scott Marks - Analyst

    Scott Marks - Analyst

  • Got it. And then last one for me. There was a comment in the prepared remarks about anticipating fiscal '27 to be an on algo growth year in terms of adjusted EPS. Just wondering if you can kind of share maybe some thoughts around that and how maybe you're setting up fiscal '26 to kind of -- to run into '27?

    知道了。這是我的最後一個。準備好的評論中有一條評論稱,預計 27 財年將是調整後每股收益實現演算法成長的一年。我只是想知道您是否可以分享一些這方面的想法,以及您如何設定 26 財年以應對 27 財年?

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So I think there's a couple of things that we want to acknowledge here on today's call. Absent some external factors and some internal decisions, we would have probably been somewhere above $10.50 for this fiscal year. But when you factor in the impact of price less tissue demand on green coffee, marketing investments, the softness in Sweet Baked Snacks and tariffs, the midpoint of our guidance range is $9.

    當然。所以我認為在今天的電話會議上我們想要確認幾件事。如果沒有一些外部因素和一些內部決策,本財年的獲利水準可能在 10.50 美元以上。但是,當你考慮到價格下跌的紙巾需求對生咖啡、行銷投資、甜味烘焙零食的疲軟以及關稅的影響時,我們的指導範圍的中點是 9 美元。

  • I think what we're trying to acknowledge is is that we don't anticipate these factors reoccurring again. So depending upon where we end this fiscal year, we would anticipate an algorithm growth for next fiscal year.

    我認為我們要承認的是,我們預計這些因素不會再發生。因此,根據本財年結束的情況,我們預計下一財年的演算法將會成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Max Gumport from BNP Paribas.

    法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧甘波特 (Max Gumport)。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the question. I got one on free cash flow, and there's three parts to it. I believe some of the answers could be related to each other. So first, you meaningfully missed the FY '25 guidance of $925 million with $817 million reported. What was the driver of that miss?

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。我有一個關於自由現金流的,它有三個部分。我相信有些答案可能是相互關聯的。因此,首先,您報告的營收為 8.17 億美元,嚴重偏離了 25 財年 9.25 億美元的預期目標。那位小姐的司機是誰?

  • Second would be your FY '26 guidance of $875 million implies a large step up year-over-year, despite adjusted EPS being expected to meaningfully decline. So what's embedded in that assumption with regard to working capital and other tailwinds?

    第二,您對 26 財年的指導金額為 8.75 億美元,這意味著同比將有大幅增長,儘管預計調整後的每股收益將大幅下降。那麼,對於營運資金和其他有利因素而言,這項假設包含什麼內容呢?

  • And then the third would be the $875 million FY '26 guidance, that doesn't cover the anticipated $550 million in debt pay down and then the $455 million plus dividend payment. So I presume there's a bit of cash you can align now you have the $70 million balance, but what other measures are you expecting to use to fund those financing needs.

    第三個是 8.75 億美元的 26 財年指引金額,這還不包括預期的 5.5 億美元債務償還以及 4.55 億美元的股息支付。因此,我推測現在您有 7000 萬美元的餘額,可以調整一些現金,但您預計會使用哪些其他措施來滿足這些融資需求。

  • Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

    Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer

  • Max, so you are correct. We finished this fiscal year with $817 million of free cash flow, which was approximately $100 million below our expectations coming out of the third quarter. Simply, it's associated with green coffee inflation, our inventory balances were higher at year-end.

    馬克斯,你是對的。本財年結束時,我們的自由現金流為 8.17 億美元,比第三季的預期低約 1 億美元。簡單來說,這與綠咖啡通膨有關,我們的庫存餘額在年底較高。

  • As it relates to next fiscal year, our outlook is $875 million. And what enables that improvement year-over-year. First of all, our capital expenditures are anticipated to be $325 million, which is about $75 million lower than we finished this past fiscal year.

    對於下一財年,我們的預期是 8.75 億美元。是什麼使得這種進步逐年提升?首先,我們的資本支出預計為 3.25 億美元,比上一財年的支出低約 7,500 萬美元。

  • Further, we'll continue to manage working capital, and we'll continue to deliver earnings this fiscal year. With respect to your question around debt paydown, Yes, we will use a combination of cash generated from free cash flow after dividend payments, and we will also use excess cash from the balance sheet as well.

    此外,我們將繼續管理營運資金,並將繼續在本財年實現盈利。關於您關於償還債務的問題,是的,我們將使用股息支付後自由現金流產生的現金,並且我們還將使用資產負債表中的多餘現金。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Great, thanks very much. I'll leave it there.

    太好了,非常感謝。我就把它留在那裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節結束了。我想再次請大家發表進一步的結論。

  • Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

    Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board

  • Well, thank you all, and thank you for joining us this morning. As we shared, fiscal '25 was a year of significant progress as we delivered growth in a very challenging environment. Our results are a direct result of our focused strategy and the work we have done in recent years around portfolio optimization.

    好吧,謝謝大家,也謝謝你們今天早上加入我們。正如我們所分享的,25財年是取得重大進展的一年,因為我們在極具挑戰性的環境中實現了成長。我們的成果直接歸功於我們的重點策略以及近年來圍繞投資組合優化所做的工作。

  • We operate in very attractive categories with leading brands and offerings ranging from value to premium. Looking ahead to fiscal '26, we remain focused on investing in our key growth platforms and executing on our strategic priorities. We have the right strategy and portfolio in place and are excited about our future growth opportunities largely through our key growth platforms.

    我們經營的領域極具吸引力,擁有領先的品牌,提供從經濟實惠到高端的各種產品。展望26財年,我們將繼續專注於投資我們的關鍵成長平台並執行我們的策略重點。我們擁有正確的策略和投資組合,並對未來透過主要成長平台實現的成長機會感到興奮。

  • In closing, I'd like to extend my sincere thanks to our employees for their exceptional work and dedication. I hope everyone has a great day. Thank you.

    最後,我要向我們的員工的出色工作和奉獻精神表示誠摯的感謝。我希望每個人都度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That conclude today.

    謝謝。今天就到此結束。