慧榮科技 (SIMO) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter Silicon Motion Technology Corporation 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

    女士們,先生們,感謝您的支持,歡迎參加 Silicon Motion Technology Corporation 2019 年第三季度收益電話會議。

  • My name is Anne and I will be your conference moderator for today.

    我叫安妮,今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Before we begin today's conference I have been asked to read the following forward-looking statements.

    在我們開始今天的會議之前,我被要求閱讀以下前瞻性陳述。

  • This conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21-E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.

    本次電話會議包含經修訂的 1933 年證券法第 27-A 條和 1934 年證券交易法第 21-E 條含義內的前瞻性陳述。

  • Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding trends in the semiconductor industry and our future results of operations, financial condition and business prospects.

    此類前瞻性陳述包括但不限於有關半導體行業趨勢以及我們未來經營業績、財務狀況和業務前景的陳述。

  • Although such statements are based on our own information, and information from other sources we believe to be reliable, you should not place undue reliance on them.

    儘管此類聲明基於我們自己的信息以及我們認為可靠的其他來源的信息,但您不應過分依賴它們。

  • These statements involve risks and uncertainties in actual market trends and our results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons.

    這些陳述涉及實際市場趨勢中的風險和不確定性,由於各種原因,我們的結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

  • Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, continued competitive pressure in the semiconductor industry and the effect of such pressure on prices; unpredictable changes in technology and consumer demand for multimedia consumer electronics; the state of and any change in our relationship with our major customers; and changes in political, economic, legal and social conditions in Taiwan.

    潛在風險和不確定性包括但不限於半導體行業持續的競爭壓力以及這種壓力對價格的影響;不可預測的技術變化和消費者對多媒體消費電子產品的需求;我們與主要客戶的關係的狀況和任何變化;以及台灣政治、經濟、法律和社會狀況的變化。

  • For additional discussion of these risks and uncertainties and other factors, please see the documents we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    有關這些風險和不確定性以及其他因素的更多討論,請參閱我們不時向證券交易委員會提交的文件。

  • We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this conference call.

    我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務,這些陳述僅適用於本次電話會議之日。

  • I must advise that this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday, 30 of October, 2019.

    我必須告知,今天,即 2019 年 10 月 30 日,星期三,正在錄製本次會議。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker for today, Mr. Chris Chaney, Director of Investor Relations and Strategy.

    我現在想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,投資者關係和戰略總監 Chris Chaney 先生。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Christopher A. Chaney - Director of IR & Strategy

    Christopher A. Chaney - Director of IR & Strategy

  • Thank you, Anne.

    謝謝你,安妮。

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Silicon Motion's Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast.

    大家早上好,歡迎參加 Silicon Motion 2019 年第三季度財務業績電話會議和網絡直播。

  • As Anne mentioned, my name is Chris Chaney, Director of Investor Relations.

    正如 Anne 所說,我的名字是投資者關係總監 Chris Chaney。

  • And with me today is Wallace Kou, our President and CEO; and Riyadh Lai, our Chief Financial Officer.

    今天和我在一起的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官寇華萊士;和我們的首席財務官 Riyadh Lai。

  • Following my comments, Wallace will provide a review of our key business developments, and then Riyadh will discuss our third quarter results and our outlook.

    根據我的評論,華萊士將回顧我們的主要業務發展,然後利雅得將討論我們的第三季度業績和展望。

  • Then we will conclude with a question-and-answer period.

    然後我們將以問答時間結束。

  • Before we get started, I'd like to remind you of our safe harbor policy, which was just read at the start of this call.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您我們的安全港政策,該政策剛剛在本次電話會議開始時閱讀。

  • For a comprehensive overview of the risks involved in investing in our securities, please refer to our filings with the U.S. SEC.

    如需全面了解投資我們的證券所涉及的風險,請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。

  • For more details on our financial results, please refer to our press release, which was filed on Form 6-K after the close of the market yesterday.

    有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息,請參閱我們的新聞稿,該新聞稿在昨天收市後以 6-K 表格形式提交。

  • This webcast will be available for replay in Investor Relations section of our website for a limited time.

    該網絡廣播將在我們網站的投資者關係部分限時重播。

  • To enhance investors' understanding of our ongoing economic performance, we will discuss non-GAAP information during this call.

    為了增強投資者對我們持續經濟表現的了解,我們將在本次電話會議中討論非公認會計原則信息。

  • We use non-GAAP financial measures internally to evaluate and manage our operations.

    我們在內部使用非公認會計原則財務指標來評估和管理我們的運營。

  • We have therefore chosen to provide this information to enable you to perform comparisons of our operating results in a manner similar to how we analyze our own operating results.

    因此,我們選擇提供此信息,以使您能夠以類似於我們分析我們自己的經營業績的方式對我們的經營業績進行比較。

  • The reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial data can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday.

    GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務數據的對賬可以在我們昨天發布的收益報告中找到。

  • We ask that you review it in conjunction with this call.

    我們要求您在本次電話會議中對其進行審查。

  • With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Wallace.

    有了這個,我現在想把電話轉給華萊士。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Chris.

    謝謝你,克里斯。

  • Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

    大家好,感謝您今天加入我們。

  • First a few financial highlights before I discuss performance of our key products.

    在我討論我們主要產品的性能之前,首先要介紹一些財務亮點。

  • Our third quarter sales increased 20% sequentially to $113 million with growth led by our SSD controllers, EEMC+

    我們的第三季度銷售額環比增長 20%,達到 1.13 億美元,增長主要來自我們的 SSD 控制器、EEMC+

  • UFS controllers and SSD solutions.

    UFS 控制器和 SSD 解決方案。

  • Earnings per ADS for the quarter were $0.69, up from $0.52 in the second quarter.

    本季度每份 ADS 收益為 0.69 美元,高於第二季度的 0.52 美元。

  • Later Riyadh will discuss further details of our financial performance and guidance.

    稍後利雅得將討論我們財務業績和指導的更多細節。

  • Let me start with our SSD controllers.

    讓我從我們的 SSD 控制器開始。

  • In the third quarter, SSD controller sales will continue to account for well over half of our total sales.

    第三季度,SSD 控制器銷售額將繼續占我們總銷售額的一半以上。

  • Grew approximately 15% sequentially and achieved a new quarterly company sales record.

    環比增長約 15%,並創下新的季度公司銷售記錄。

  • Our client SSD controller sales benefited from favorable NAND flash market conditions, rapid client [still] adoption our controller technology leadership, and our strong diversified base of customers.

    我們的客戶 SSD 控制器銷售受益於有利的 NAND 閃存市場條件、客戶快速採用我們的控制器技術領先地位以及我們強大的多元化客戶群。

  • Our pipeline of SSD controller projects with customers suggested that robust SSD controller sales growth that we are seeing this year well extends through next year.

    我們與客戶的 SSD 控制器項目管道表明,我們今年看到的強勁的 SSD 控制器銷售增長很好地延續到明年。

  • All the major NAND flash manufacturing -- manufacturers have been rapidly reducing their inventory levels and the important inventory reduction method has been to aggressively market client SSD especially to OEM for displacing legacy hard disk drives.

    所有主要的 NAND 閃存製造商——製造商都在迅速降低庫存水平,而重要的降低庫存方法一直是積極推銷客戶端 SSD,尤其是向 OEM 銷售以取代傳統硬盤驅動器。

  • Lower dollar per gigabyte NAND prices have created more market demand, while more balanced industry supply demand dynamics have helped stabilize market conditions and visibility for business activity through the industry food chain.

    每 GB NAND 美元價格的下降創造了更多的市場需求,而更平衡的行業供應需求動態有助於穩定市場狀況和整個行業食物鏈中商業活動的可見性。

  • At least half of our SSD controllers are now shipping into SSD for PC OEMs.

    現在,我們至少有一半的 SSD 控制器為 PC OEM 提供 SSD。

  • And we expect this trend to grow further as our NAND flash customers build more high performance and mainstream SSD using our controllers for these OEMs.

    隨著我們的 NAND 閃存客戶使用我們為這些 OEM 提供的控制器構建更多高性能和主流 SSD,我們預計這一趨勢將進一步增長。

  • And our module maker customer build more value line SSD also for PC OEMs.

    我們的模塊製造商客戶也為 PC OEM 製造了更具價值的 SSD。

  • We have benefited from growing adoption of SSD by PC OEMs from the global brands to China local brands.

    我們受益於從全球品牌到中國本土品牌的 PC OEM 越來越多地採用 SSD。

  • With the price SSD decreasing relative to HDD and lower density SSD cheaper than HDD, PC OEMs are actively thinking to increase their use of SSDs.

    隨著 SSD 相對於 HDD 的價格下降以及密度較低的 SSD 比 HDD 便宜,PC OEM 正在積極考慮增加對 SSD 的使用。

  • This dovetails with consumers who are increasingly comfortable using low density drives because of the widespread of their ability of fast broadband connectivity to client storage and client applications.

    這與越來越習慣使用低密度驅動器的消費者相吻合,因為它們具有與客戶端存儲和客戶端應用程序的快速寬帶連接能力。

  • According to Gartner Research 55% to 60% of all PCs this year are shipping with SSD, up from about 45% last year.

    根據 Gartner Research 的數據,今年 55% 到 60% 的 PC 都配備了 SSD,高於去年的 45%。

  • We believe there remain meaningful upside opportunity for us in client SSD market with over 200 million client devices shipping annually that still using HDDs.

    我們相信,在客戶端 SSD 市場上,我們仍然存在有意義的上行機會,每年有超過 2 億台仍在使用 HDD 的客戶端設備出貨。

  • We also believe we are well positioned to increase our share of client SSD controller markets from roughly 1/3 today to 40% as we continue to increase market share as existing customers and our customer gain share in the SSD market.

    我們還相信,隨著現有客戶和我們的客戶在 SSD 市場中獲得份額,我們將繼續增加市場份額,因此我們有能力將我們在客戶端 SSD 控制器市場的份額從目前的大約 1/3 增加到 40%。

  • Additionally, we continue to have an active dialogue with NAND flash makers who are not our customer today.

    此外,我們將繼續與非我們客戶的 NAND 閃存製造商進行積極對話。

  • And remain optimistic that they may eventually [also] our controller for their mainstream and value line SSD to us.

    並保持樂觀,他們最終可能會為我們的主流和價值線 SSD 提供我們的控制器。

  • We will also continue to benefit from our client SSD controller technology leadership.

    我們還將繼續受益於我們的客戶 SSD 控制器技術領先地位。

  • Our controller technology for managing QLC 3D NAND is a match in this industry among both NAND flash makers and merchant competitors.

    我們用於管理 QLC 3D NAND 的控制器技術在該行業中是 NAND 閃存製造商和商業競爭對手中的佼佼者。

  • We supply almost all our SSD controller used for managing QLC NAND shipping today, including popular notebook PC from the global brands.

    我們提供幾乎所有用於管理 QLC NAND 運輸的 SSD 控制器,包括來自全球品牌的流行筆記本電腦。

  • QLC NAND, as you know, is significantly lower cost compared to comparable TLC NAND but much harder to manage their efficiency.

    如您所知,QLC NAND 與同類 TLC NAND 相比成本顯著降低,但更難以管理其效率。

  • By the fourth quarter over 80% of our SSD controller shipping to NAND flash customers will be for PCIe NVMe SSD, significantly higher than industry average and the demonstration of our technological competitiveness.

    到第四季度,我們向 NAND 閃存客戶出貨的 SSD 控制器超過 80% 將用於 PCIe NVMe SSD,顯著高於行業平均水平,並展示了我們的技術競爭力。

  • Our position remains strong as the preferred choice of controller technology by our customer for 90x layer and upcoming 100 plus layer 3D NAND.

    作為客戶對 90x 層和即將推出的 100 層以上 3D NAND 的首選控制器技術,我們的地位依然穩固。

  • We continue to make progress with our enterprise SSD controllers.

    我們繼續在企業級 SSD 控制器方面取得進展。

  • Our Shannon open channel SSD for 2 of China B-A-T hyperscale customers data center are already shipping with our enterprise controllers.

    我們用於中國 B-A-T 超大規模客戶數據中心的 2 個 Shannon 開放通道 SSD 已經與我們的企業控制器一起發貨。

  • Separately, we already have several design wins with U.S. customers for enterprise class standard NVMe SSD.

    另外,我們已經為美國客戶贏得了企業級標準 NVMe SSD 的多項設計。

  • And a few of these we'll start shipping in the fourth quarter.

    其中一些我們將在第四季度開始發貨。

  • Our overall enterprise SSD controller sales, which had a [steep] price mode.

    我們整體的企業級 SSD 控制器銷售,有一個 [陡峭] 的價格模式。

  • Turning to our eMMC+

    轉向我們的 eMMC+

  • UFS controllers.

    UFS 控制器。

  • In the third quarter, our eMMC+

    第三季度,我們的 eMMC+

  • UFS controller sales were much better than expected.

    UFS 控制器的銷售遠好於預期。

  • Sales grew nearly 40% sequentially, nearly doubling the growth rate we saw in the prior quarter.

    銷售額環比增長近 40%,幾乎是我們在上一季度看到的增長率的兩倍。

  • The growth was driven primarily by sale of UFS controller to a U.S. NAND flash customers but also by sales of eMMC controller to Chinese module makers.

    增長的主要動力來自向美國 NAND 閃存客戶銷售 UFS 控制器,以及向中國模塊製造商銷售 eMMC 控制器。

  • Sales of eMMC controller to SK Hynix remain stable.

    eMMC 控制器對 SK 海力士的銷售保持穩定。

  • Year-over-year our eMMC+

    與去年同期相比,我們的 eMMC+

  • UFS controller sales will decline by approximately 1/4 as our Korean customer diversify away from the mobile markets at volumes, the low end eMMC market and focus on UFS using its own controllers.

    隨著我們的韓國客戶從大量移動市場、低端 eMMC 市場轉移到使用自有控制器的 UFS 上,UFS 控制器的銷售額將下降約 1/4。

  • Nevertheless, after many quarter of declining sales our eMMC+

    儘管如此,在經歷了多個季度銷量下滑之後,我們的 eMMC+

  • UFS controller have rebounded and we are well positioned for growth driven by growing adoptions of UFS in smartphones and more diversified set of eMMC and U.S. customer focused on market opportunity under service by the leading NAND flash vendors.

    UFS 控制器已經反彈,我們在智能手機中越來越多地採用 UFS 以及更多樣化的 eMMC 和美國客戶專注於領先 NAND 閃存供應商所服務的市場機會的推動下,我們已經做好了增長的準備。

  • Now, I will provide a few comments on our SSD solution specifically our Shannon SSD.

    現在,我將對我們的 SSD 解決方案,特別是我們的 Shannon SSD 提供一些評論。

  • Shipment of our Shannon SSD fell sharply in the first half of the year.

    今年上半年我們的香農固態硬盤出貨量急劇下降。

  • And as previously communicated, our open channel SSD for 2 of China B-A-T hyperscale customer data center were roughly 1 year behind schedule due to challenges related to new technology introduction.

    如前所述,由於新技術引入方面的挑戰,我們為中國 B-A-T 超大規模客戶數據中心的 2 個開放通道 SSD 延遲了大約 1 年。

  • We have overcome these challenges and in the third quarter, Shannon sales started recovering as we began shipping our open channel SSD to our 2 customers.

    我們已經克服了這些挑戰,在第三季度,隨著我們開始向我們的 2 個客戶運送我們的開放通道 SSD,Shannon 的銷售開始復蘇。

  • our open channel SSD are new -- are now commercially deploying in the data center of Alibaba and another B-A-T.

    我們的開放通道 SSD 是新的——現在正在阿里巴巴和另一個 B-A-T 的數據中心進行商業部署。

  • We expect sales of our Shannon SSD to grow further in the fourth quarter and expect gross profit next year to recover to 2017 and 2018 levels as we restructure the business in order to take on less inventory risk.

    我們預計香農固態硬盤的銷售額將在第四季度進一步增長,並預計明年毛利將恢復至 2017 年和 2018 年的水平,因為我們重組業務以降低庫存風險。

  • Riyadh will discuss details of this in his comments.

    利雅得將在他的評論中討論這方面的細節。

  • In conclusion, over the last 4 quarters growth in our business has been solely depend on the continued strength of our SSD controllers.

    總之,在過去 4 個季度中,我們業務的增長完全取決於我們 SSD 控制器的持續實力。

  • Looking forward, while we expect SSD controller to remain as a primary growth driver, we will also benefit from the rebound in sales of the eMMC+

    展望未來,雖然我們預計 SSD 控制器仍將是主要增長動力,但我們也將受益於 eMMC+ 銷量的反彈

  • UFS controllers and recovery of our SSD solutions.

    UFS 控制器和恢復我們的 SSD 解決方案。

  • With 3 engine of growth all executing we are better positioned for stronger and more balanced growth.

    隨著 3 個增長引擎的全部執行,我們能夠更好地實現更強勁、更平衡的增長。

  • Now, I will turn the call over to Riyadh to discuss our financial results and our outlook.

    現在,我將把電話轉給利雅得,討論我們的財務業績和前景。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Thank you, Wallace, and hello, everyone.

    謝謝你,華萊士,大家好。

  • I will summarize our financial results and then provide our outlook.

    我將總結我們的財務業績,然後提供我們的展望。

  • Before I begin, I would like to reiterate that our comments today will focus primarily on our non-GAAP results unless otherwise specifically noted.

    在開始之前,我想重申,我們今天的評論將主要關注我們的非公認會計原則結果,除非另有特別說明。

  • Please note that all non-GAAP results exclude FCI in order to provide transparency to the performance of our continuing operations.

    請注意,所有非公認會計原則結果均不包括 FCI,以便為我們的持續經營業績提供透明度。

  • A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP data is included with the earnings release issued yesterday.

    昨天發布的收益報告中包含了我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 數據的對賬。

  • In Q3, revenue grew 20% sequentially, increasing from the 6% growth in the prior quarter.

    第三季度,收入環比增長 20%,高於上一季度的 6%。

  • Results for our 3 key products are as follows: SSD controller sales grew about 15% sequentially, similar to the prior quarter.

    我們 3 款主要產品的業績如下: SSD 控制器銷量環比增長約 15%,與上一季度相似。

  • eMMC+

    eMMC+

  • UFS controller sales grew about 40% compared to 20% in the prior quarter.

    UFS 控制器的銷售額增長了約 40%,而上一季度為 20%。

  • And SSD solutions increased about 45%, reversing a previous declining trend.

    SSD 解決方案增長約 45%,扭轉了之前的下降趨勢。

  • Gross margins in Q3 were down sequentially to 49.8% compared to 51.5% in the prior quarter due to unfavorable sales mix and legacy products.

    由於不利的銷售組合和遺留產品,第三季度的毛利率從上一季度的 51.5% 連續下降至 49.8%。

  • Sales of our low margin SSD solutions increased and legacy controller gross margins declined.

    我們低利潤 SSD 解決方案的銷售額增加,而傳統控制器的毛利率下降。

  • SSD controller gross margins were unchanged quarter-over-quarter.

    SSD 控制器毛利率環比保持不變。

  • Operating expenses in Q3 were almost flat, sequentially.

    第三季度的運營費用環比持平。

  • Operating margin in Q3 increased to 22.1% from 18.4% in the previous quarter, due primarily to operating leverage.

    第三季度的營業利潤率從上一季度的 18.4% 增加到 22.1%,主要是由於經營槓桿。

  • Our effective tax rate in Q3 was 9% compared to 3% in the prior quarter.

    我們在第三季度的有效稅率為 9%,而上一季度為 3%。

  • Q2 tax rate was unusually low primarily due to a one-time tax benefit, which came from the reversal of a previous tax accrual.

    第二季度的稅率異常低,主要是由於一次性稅收優惠來自先前的應計稅款的逆轉。

  • Earnings per ADS in Q3 increased to $0.69 from $0.52 in the previous quarter.

    第三季度每 ADS 的收益從上一季度的 0.52 美元增加到 0.69 美元。

  • Stock-based compensation in our operating expenses, which we exclude from our non-GAAP results was $2.6 million in Q3 compared to $0.3 million in the prior quarter due to seasonal timing of RSU awards.

    由於受限制性股票單位獎勵的季節性時間安排,我們在第三季度從非公認會計原則結果中排除的運營費用中基於股票的薪酬為 260 萬美元,而上一季度為 30 萬美元。

  • We have $333 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments at the end of Q3, down from $368 million at the end of the prior quarter.

    截至第三季度末,我們擁有 3.33 億美元的現金、現金等價物、受限現金和短期投資,低於上一季度末的 3.68 億美元。

  • We paid $10 million in dividends to shareholders, the fourth quarterly installment of our $1.20 per ADS annual dividend that was announced in October of last year.

    我們向股東支付了 1000 萬美元的股息,這是去年 10 月宣布的每股 ADS 年度股息 1.20 美元的第四季度分期付款。

  • Last week, on October 25th, our Board announced a new annual dividend of $1.40, 17% higher than last year's $1.20 and also payable in 4 quarterly installments.

    上週,10 月 25 日,我們的董事會宣布新的年度股息為 1.40 美元,比去年的 1.20 美元高出 17%,並且也分 4 個季度分期支付。

  • We repurchased $25 million of our shares during the quarter at an average price of $32.82.

    我們在本季度以 32.82 美元的平均價格回購了 2500 萬美元的股票。

  • Now, let me turn to our fourth quarter guidance, and forward-looking business trends.

    現在,讓我談談我們的第四季度指導和前瞻性的業務趨勢。

  • In Q4, we expect revenue to grow in the range of 17.5% to 22.5% sequentially, driven by our 3 key products, SSD controllers, eMMC+

    在我們的 3 個關鍵產品 SSD 控制器、eMMC+ 的推動下,我們預計第四季度的收入將環比增長 17.5% 至 22.5%

  • UFS controllers and SSD solutions.

    UFS 控制器和 SSD 解決方案。

  • Based on what we currently see from our customers procurement plans we are expecting solid revenue growth next year driven also by these 3 key products.

    根據我們目前從客戶採購計劃中看到的情況,我們預計明年這三個關鍵產品也會推動收入穩健增長。

  • Let me provide color on each of the 3 key products.

    讓我為 3 個關鍵產品中的每一個提供顏色。

  • In the fourth quarter we expect our SSD controller sales to continue growing robustly.

    在第四季度,我們預計我們的 SSD 控制器銷售將繼續強勁增長。

  • The relatively stable NAND market price that we have been seeing recently has led to better business visibility.

    我們最近看到的相對穩定的 NAND 市場價格導致了更好的業務知名度。

  • Our customers are now more confident in planning business activities, and based on their procurement plans for next year, we're expecting strong SSD controller growth in 2020, with strong emphasis on PC OEM SSD projects.

    我們的客戶現在對規劃業務活動更有信心,根據他們明年的採購計劃,我們預計 2020 年 SSD 控制器將出現強勁增長,重點是 PC OEM SSD 項目。

  • In the fourth quarter, we expect our eMMC+

    在第四季度,我們預計我們的 eMMC+

  • UFS controller sales growth to continue growing strongly.

    UFS控制器銷售增長繼續強勁增長。

  • We expect our eMMC and UFS controller sales growth to continue through next year, driven by both accelerating UFS adoption by smartphone OEMs, with recent availability of application processors that support UMCP, and growing strength of our diversified base of module maker customers.

    我們預計我們的 eMMC 和 UFS 控制器銷售增長將持續到明年,這得益於智能手機 OEM 加速採用 UFS,最近推出了支持 UMCP 的應用處理器,以及我們多元化的模塊製造商客戶群的實力不斷增強。

  • We believe growth from UFS adoption and module maker customers next year will more than offset further downside risk relating to our Korean customer.

    我們認為,明年 UFS 採用和模塊製造商客戶的增長將足以抵消與我們的韓國客戶相關的進一步下行風險。

  • In the fourth quarter, we expect our SSD solution sales to continue recovering with growth from both Shannon and Ferri.

    在第四季度,我們預計我們的 SSD 解決方案銷售將隨著 Shannon 和 Ferri 的增長而繼續復甦。

  • While Shannon gross margins will continue to increase next -- gross profits will continue to increase next year as new programs with Alibaba and other customers enter production.

    雖然香農的毛利率將在接下來繼續增加——隨著阿里巴巴和其他客戶的新項目投入生產,明年毛利潤將繼續增加。

  • Revenue growth will be more limited as we start transitioning our business arrangements with Alibaba to a consignment model in the first half of next year.

    隨著我們在明年上半年開始將與阿里巴巴的業務安排轉變為寄售模式,收入增長將更加有限。

  • Separately, we are excited about our Ferri opportunities next year, especially for automotive applications.

    另外,我們對明年的 Ferri 機會感到興奮,尤其是在汽車應用方面。

  • In the fourth quarter, gross margin is expected to be in the range of 48.5% to 50.5%, comparable to Q3.

    第四季度,毛利率預計在 48.5% 至 50.5% 之間,與第三季度相當。

  • There could be some downward pressure on our gross margins in Q4 because of increasing sales of SSD solutions and we also expect Shannon gross margins to remain under further pressure in Q4 before improving early next year when we start transitioning Alibaba sales to a consignment arrangement.

    由於 SSD 解決方案的銷售增加,我們第四季度的毛利率可能會面臨一些下行壓力,我們還預計香農毛利率將在第四季度繼續承受進一步的壓力,然後在明年初我們開始將阿里巴巴的銷售轉變為寄售安排時有所改善。

  • Fourth quarter operating margin is expected to be between 21.6% to 24.6%, comparable to Q3.

    第四季度營業利潤率預計在 21.6% 至 24.6% 之間,與第三季度相當。

  • While we are expecting meaningful gross profit upside in Q4 from higher levels of sales, improvement in operating margin will be limited because of higher operating expense in Q4 due to R&D tapeouts for new controllers.

    雖然我們預計第四季度更高的銷售水平將顯著提升毛利潤,但由於新控制器的研發流片導致第四季度運營費用增加,營業利潤率的改善將有限。

  • Stock-based compensation expense in the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $7 million to $8 million.

    第四季度的股票補償費用預計在 700 萬美元至 800 萬美元之間。

  • Effective tax rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be approximately 15%, our model tax rate.

    第四季度的有效稅率預計約為 15%,我們的模型稅率。

  • Let me now update everyone about the restructuring of our SSD solutions product group.

    現在讓我向大家介紹一下我們SSD解決方案產品組的重組。

  • Last quarter, we disclosed that sales outlook for Shannon had been deteriorating, which led to a $5 million write-down of NAND flash components and SSDs in inventory and the risk that a significant portion of Shannon's $34 million of acquired goodwill in intangible assets may be impaired.

    上個季度,我們披露 Shannon 的銷售前景一直在惡化,這導致 NAND 閃存組件和 SSD 的庫存減記 500 萬美元,而 Shannon 收購的 3400 萬美元無形資產商譽的很大一部分可能會被受損。

  • This quarter, after completing our impairment evaluation, we wrote down Shannon goodwill by $16 million because the present value of our expected Shannon cash flow was determined to be less than the sum of our purchase price plus subsequent investments.

    本季度,在完成減值評估後,我們將香農商譽減記了 1600 萬美元,因為我們預期香農現金流的現值被確定為低於我們的購買價格加上後續投資的總和。

  • We have also been restructuring our Shannon's operations to achieve better operating integration and efficiencies.

    我們還一直在重組香農的運營,以實現更好的運營整合和效率。

  • And have changed our business arrangement with Alibaba to where NAND is consigned.

    並已將我們與阿里巴巴的業務安排更改為委託 NAND。

  • And with the transition to this new arrangement, which will start in the first half of 2020, we will reduce our exposure to NAND flash volatility and capital tied up financing inventory.

    隨著向這種新安排的過渡(將於 2020 年上半年開始),我們將減少對 NAND 閃存波動和資金緊縮融資庫存的風險敞口。

  • Separately, we have been reorganizing the operations of our small Bigtera software defined storage product line and in Q3 recognized a $2.7 million bills returned from customers.

    另外,我們一直在重組我們的小型 Bigtera 軟件定義存儲產品線的運營,並在第三季度確認了從客戶那裡退回的 270 萬美元的賬單。

  • This followed a complete $4 million write-down of our Bigtera goodwill in intangible assets at the end of 2018.

    在此之前,我們在 2018 年底將 Bigtera 的無形資產商譽減記了 400 萬美元。

  • With these asset impairment issues behind us and with our core SSD controller sales well positioned to continue growing robustly, our eMMC+UFS controllers making a comeback and our SSD solutions recovering and casual visibility -- cash flow growth and visibility improving, our Board announced last week, a new annual dividend per ADS that is 17% higher than last year's.

    隨著這些資產減值問題的解決,我們的核心 SSD 控制器銷售處於有利地位,將繼續強勁增長,我們的 eMMC+UFS 控制器捲土重來,我們的 SSD 解決方案正在恢復和偶然可見性——現金流增長和可見性提高,我們的董事會最後宣布週,每 ADS 的新年度股息比去年高出 17%。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks.

    我們準備好的評論到此結束。

  • We will now open the call to your questions.

    我們現在將打開您的問題的電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) First question comes from the line of Anthony Stoss of Craig-Hallum.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Anthony Stoss。

  • Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • Congrats on the old SIMO on SSD starting to show its head again.

    恭喜 SSD 上的舊 SIMO 再次開始嶄露頭角。

  • Riyadh probably for you, I'm curious if you can quantify how much the net loss would be for 2019 from the Shannon Systems group, what the gross margins would be?

    利雅得可能對你來說,我很好奇你是否可以量化香農系統集團 2019 年的淨虧損是多少,毛利率是多少?

  • Just so we get a clearer picture on true profitability on Silicon Motion?

    只是為了讓我們更清楚地了解 Silicon Motion 的真實盈利能力嗎?

  • And then if you could take a stab at, after the consignment transition is complete, what would be kind of an expected range of gross margins for all of SIMO?

    然後,如果您可以嘗試一下,在寄售過渡完成後,所有 SIMO 的預期毛利率範圍是多少?

  • And then I had a follow up.

    然後我進行了跟進。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • First of all, on the first part of your question, our Shannon product line, the gross margins have come down significantly.

    首先,關於你問題的第一部分,我們的香農產品線,毛利率已經顯著下降。

  • Last year, our business was roughly about 20% type gross margin.

    去年,我們的業務類型毛利率大約是 20%。

  • In the most recent quarter, we were down effectively to 0. And we expect to stay at that level in the fourth quarter; before the profitability of this business starts recovering in early next year, when we transition to a consignment business model.

    在最近一個季度,我們有效地降至 0。我們預計第四季度將保持在該水平;在該業務的盈利能力在明年初開始恢復之前,我們將過渡到寄售業務模式。

  • But until then, our business is -- our Shannon business unit is not profitable, we are making a bit of a net loss of roughly around $5 million.

    但在那之前,我們的業務是——我們的香農業務部門沒有盈利,我們的淨虧損約為 500 萬美元。

  • Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then what would you expect the gross margins to be after the consignment is complete, the transition?

    那麼,在寄售完成、過渡後,您預計毛利率會是多少?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Unfortunately, I can't give you more clarity on that because this is still taking place.

    不幸的是,我無法讓您更清楚地說明這一點,因為這仍在發生。

  • We're going to be working one step at a time.

    我們將一步一步地工作。

  • First, we're rolling out the consignment for our Ali projects.

    首先,我們正在為我們的阿里項目推出代銷。

  • We have roughly half a dozen projects with Ali going into next year and we're going to be rolling out the consignment, but there's still a lot of implementation that needs to take place.

    明年我們與阿里大約有六個項目,我們將推出代銷,但仍有很多實施需要進行。

  • So this will -- the pace of how this is rolled out will determine how what sort of improvement.

    所以這將 - 推出的速度將決定如何改進。

  • But without NAND passing through, for example, on our Ali, our product sales to Alibaba are -- without the NAND, the profitability, the gross margins of this business will improve significantly.

    但是如果沒有 NAND,例如在我們的阿里上,我們對阿里巴巴的產品銷售是 - 沒有 NAND,盈利能力,該業務的毛利率將顯著提高。

  • Because as you know, in a typical SSD, NAND accounts for roughly 80% of the bill of materials, and without the NAND flowing through, while our revenue will come down, we -- we're not -- without having to carry the NAND costs, our gross margin becomes so much higher.

    因為如您所知,在典型的 SSD 中,NAND 約佔材料清單的 80%,如果沒有 NAND,雖然我們的收入會下降,但我們——我們不是——無需攜帶NAND成本,我們的毛利率變得如此之高。

  • Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Anthony Joseph Stoss - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then 1 quick follow up.

    然後 1 快速跟進。

  • Can you quantify the Q4 or any tapeouts, how much it was?

    你能量化第四季度或任何流片,它是多少?

  • And maybe go a step further and give us a ballpark of what the March quarter OpEx should look like.

    也許更進一步,讓我們大致了解 3 月季度的運營支出應該是什麼樣子。

  • It's -- your OpEx is up about $5 million from Q3 and Q4, does it revert back to kind of a Q3 level in Q1?

    這是 - 您的運營支出比第三季度和第四季度增加了約 500 萬美元,它會在第一季度恢復到第三季度的水平嗎?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • So tapeouts in Q4 are going to be meaningfully higher than in prior quarters, including in the third quarter.

    因此,第四季度的流片將顯著高於前幾個季度,包括第三季度。

  • We're going to have roughly about $4 million of incremental tapeouts for new controllers in the fourth quarter.

    我們將在第四季度為新控制器增加大約 400 萬美元的流片。

  • But as we go into Q1, our overall tapeout and operating expenses should revert back to more normal levels.

    但隨著我們進入第一季度,我們的整體流片和運營費用應該會恢復到更正常的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis from B. Riley FBR.

    下一個問題來自 B. Riley FBR 的 Craig Ellis。

  • Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

    Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

  • And guys, congratulations on the good execution and on the nice dividend increase last week.

    伙計們,祝賀上週的良好執行和良好的股息增長。

  • So Wallace, I want to start off by following up on some of your prepared remarks as it relates to the SSD controller business.

    所以華萊士,我想首先跟進你準備好的一些與 SSD 控制器業務相關的評論。

  • As you work with your NAND OEM customers and interact with them about what their end customers are seeing.

    當您與您的 NAND OEM 客戶合作並與他們互動了解他們的最終客戶所看到的內容時。

  • Can you give us a sense for all the benefit to SIMO next year if we get an increase in PC SSD penetration that would be perhaps similar to this year?

    如果 PC SSD 滲透率的增長可能與今年相似,您能否告訴我們明年 SIMO 的所有好處?

  • And if the company's market share can rise from 33% to 40%, when do we see that impact the business?

    如果公司的市場份額可以從 33% 上升到 40%,我們什麼時候會看到對業務的影響?

  • Does that flow into the business in the first half of the year?

    這是否會在今年上半年流入業務?

  • Does it go into the back half?

    它進入後半部分嗎?

  • How should we think about the linearity of that increased penetration in the market share gains of the company?

    我們應該如何看待公司市場份額增長中滲透率增加的線性關係?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We -- thank you for questions.

    我們——感謝您的提問。

  • We cannot comment on the detail number how much we can grow for PC OEM for next year.

    我們無法評論明年我們可以為 PC OEM 增長多少的詳細數字。

  • But from current design pipeline, we have very high confidence we definitely will grow at least 10% to 20% as the market grows.

    但從目前的設計流程來看,我們非常有信心隨著市場的增長,我們肯定會增長至少 10% 到 20%。

  • Because we currently have 4 to 5 customer support top 3 PC OEM.

    因為我們目前有 4 到 5 個客戶支持排名前 3 位的 PC OEM。

  • Next year we probably will add 2 more.

    明年我們可能會再增加 2 個。

  • So I think from current design pipeline, we are very confident we can -- we're going to gain market share, our customer will gain market share in PC OEM.

    所以我認為從目前的設計流程來看,我們非常有信心——我們將獲得市場份額,我們的客戶將在 PC OEM 中獲得市場份額。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • But Craig, let me further add the 40% market share target is not a target that we've set for ourselves for next year, but rather a target that we can achieve in a few years' time.

    但是克雷格,讓我進一步補充一下,40% 的市場份額目標不是我們為明年設定的目標,而是我們可以在幾年內實現的目標。

  • We believe our market shares are going to continue to inch up for the many reasons that we talked about, but likely we will probably not hit 40% by next year.

    我們相信,由於我們談到的許多原因,我們的市場份額將繼續小幅上升,但到明年我們可能不會達到 40%。

  • Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

    Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

  • And then Riyadh, I wanted to follow up on one of the fourth quarter guidance points around gross margin.

    然後利雅得,我想跟進有關毛利率的第四季度指導點之一。

  • So if I rewind the clock to 3 months ago, the implied guidance for fourth quarter would have had a gross margin decrease towards 46%.

    因此,如果我將時鐘倒回到 3 個月前,第四季度的隱含指引將毛利率下降至 46%。

  • But now clearly, the outlook for the fourth quarter is much, much stronger at 49.5%, we're in the middle of the target range.

    但現在很明顯,第四季度的前景要強勁得多,達到 49.5%,我們處於目標範圍的中間。

  • Is the company now confident that they can execute the business to target gross margins through calendar '20, with the improvements you're seeing in the way you're managing the SSD solution business?

    公司現在是否有信心通過您在管理 SSD 解決方案業務的方式上看到的改進,在 20 年日曆上執行業務以實現毛利率目標?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • It is possible, we're quite confident about how our controller gross margins are -- have been performing, how we have been able to deliver on stable gross margins.

    有可能,我們對我們的控制器毛利率如何 - 一直表現非常有信心,我們如何能夠實現穩定的毛利率。

  • We have the benefit that now the NAND price, NAND supply demand dynamics are now a lot more stable, a lot more favorable to all the parties in the food chain, the pressure on us and other participants in the food chain have now alleviated, right.

    我們的好處是現在 NAND 價格,NAND 供應需求動態現在穩定了很多,對食物鏈中的各方都有利,我們和食物鏈中其他參與者的壓力現在減輕了,對吧.

  • So we have less pressure on our controllers, plus we're moving our SSD solutions business arrangement to a consignment model much faster than we had originally anticipated.

    因此,我們對控制器的壓力較小,而且我們將 SSD 解決方案業務安排轉變為寄售模式的速度比我們最初預期的要快得多。

  • Earlier this year we thought that as we moved to a consignment we probably will not be able to implement until the end of -- towards the end of next year.

    今年早些時候,我們認為當我們轉向寄售時,我們可能要到年底才能實施 - 到明年年底。

  • But it looks like we're moving a lot faster and we'd be able to -- we should be able to start having the benefit of this sometime in the first half of next year.

    但看起來我們的行動速度要快得多,而且我們能夠——我們應該能夠在明年上半年的某個時候開始從中受益。

  • So net, net these are all very favorable trends for our gross profitability going into next year.

    所以淨,淨這些都是我們進入明年毛利潤的非常有利的趨勢。

  • Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

    Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research

  • And if I could just ask 1 more.

    如果我可以再問 1 個。

  • Very encouraging to see that eMMC and UFS business start to bounce back.

    看到 eMMC 和 UFS 業務開始反彈非常令人鼓舞。

  • The question is, since that business is running at mid-20s to mid-40s quarterly revenue range over the last 10 quarters, is the visibility that the business can grow through the low end of that range towards the middle of the range?

    問題是,由於該業務在過去 10 個季度的季度收入在 20 年代中期至 40 年代中期的範圍內運行,該業務能否從該範圍的低端增長到該範圍的中間?

  • Is there potential for the business ever to get back to the mid-40s?

    企業是否有可能回到 40 年代中期?

  • If you could help us understand the potential of that business over the next 4 to 6 quarters, it would be helpful.

    如果您能幫助我們了解該業務在未來 4 到 6 個季度的潛力,那將會很有幫助。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, with the current design market trends, we do see a strong demand for UFS transitioning from premium line and expand to mainstream smartphone, so they help us to grow UFS with one of our major U.S. NAND customers.

    好吧,根據當前的設計市場趨勢,我們確實看到了對 UFS 從高端產品線過渡並擴展到主流智能手機的強烈需求,因此它們幫助我們與我們的主要美國 NAND 客戶之一一起發展 UFS。

  • And in addition, I believe, because there is -- we have quite a lot of the eMMC design for value line for smartphone, we do see tremendous growth in design pipeline from our China module makers.

    此外,我相信,因為我們有相當多的智能手機價值線的 eMMC 設計,我們確實看到了來自中國模塊製造商的設計管道的巨大增長。

  • So that really encourage us to see the strong momentum to growth that's why we're seeing from Q3 we see the momentum will extend to the Q4 and to 2020.

    因此,這確實鼓勵我們看到強勁的增長勢頭,這就是為什麼我們從第三季度開始看到這種勢頭將延續到第四季度和 2020 年。

  • On current forecasts, we do see, because the market transition from eMMC to UFS, they helps -- they really help for us -- help us to see the future and growth momentum and design pipeline through our major partner.

    在目前的預測中,我們確實看到,因為從 eMMC 到 UFS 的市場過渡,它們幫助——它們真的對我們有幫助——幫助我們看到未來和增長勢頭,並通過我們的主要合作夥伴設計管道。

  • And we believe we might add 1 more major partner for 2020.

    我們相信我們可能會在 2020 年再增加 1 個主要合作夥伴。

  • But then looking forward, we believe our mobile sale revenue will back to our highest level like at 2016 and '17 level.

    但展望未來,我們相信我們的移動銷售收入將回到 2016 年和 17 年的最高水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Karl Ackerman of Cowen.

    下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Karl Ackerman。

  • Karl Fredrick Ackerman - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Karl Fredrick Ackerman - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • First I want to just touch on mobile.

    首先,我只想觸摸移動設備。

  • It has been a follow-up to Craig's comment-- question then.

    這是克雷格評論的後續行動——然後是問題。

  • How sustainable do you think mobile controller business will be into the fourth quarter and into at least the first half of 2020?

    您認為移動控制器業務在第四季度和至少到 2020 年上半年的可持續性如何?

  • And I guess I asked that because it would appear there might be a build-up in UFS inventory that was destined for Huawei.

    而且我想我問了這個問題,因為看起來可能會增加用於華為的 UFS 庫存。

  • So I'm wondering if you could provide any color on how you think sales to OEMs today, perhaps even on a broader basis across your own customers?

    因此,我想知道您是否可以提供任何關於您對當今 OEM 銷售的看法,甚至可能是在您自己的客戶中更廣泛的基礎上?

  • And I have a follow-up.

    我有一個後續行動。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I believe Q4, our mobile sale revenue is very solid from current designing and the [pull] and the procurement from our customers.

    我相信第四季度,我們的移動銷售收入來自當前的設計、[拉動] 和客戶採購。

  • We do see the design win is beyond Huawei, it has expanded to Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Samsung Mobile.

    我們確實看到設計的勝利超越了華為,它已經擴展到小米、Oppo、Vivo 和三星移動。

  • And we do also have the confidence because China module makers start to win value line smartphone because the majority of NAND makers are moving away from low density eMMC.

    我們也有信心,因為中國模塊製造商開始贏得價值線智能手機,因為大多數 NAND 製造商正在遠離低密度 eMMC。

  • And that help us to see the market growth on China module makers.

    這有助於我們看到中國組件製造商的市場增長。

  • And we do see the open trend is favorable to us because there are more transition in smartphone from eMCP to uMCP in 2020.

    我們確實看到開放趨勢對我們有利,因為 2020 年智能手機從 eMCP 到 uMCP 的過渡更多。

  • That are really helping us to see the visibility of our design pipeline and sale forecast is very, very strong.

    這真的幫助我們看到我們的設計管道和銷售預測的知名度非常非常強。

  • We believe we will continue growth on mobile storage product in 2020.

    我們相信我們將在 2020 年繼續增長移動存儲產品。

  • Karl Fredrick Ackerman - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Karl Fredrick Ackerman - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • I guess given your unique position within the supply chain, what are you seeing in terms of 128-layer NAND development?

    我想鑑於您在供應鏈中的獨特地位,您對 128 層 NAND 開發有何看法?

  • The integrated Korean NAND provider is already there.

    集成的韓國 NAND 供應商已經存在。

  • But what do you think the industry transitions to 128?

    但是您認為該行業如何過渡到 128?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • It's a pretty good question.

    這是一個很好的問題。

  • I think now, all NAND maker, except China maker, all have 100-plus layer TLC, or QLC sample.

    我認為現在所有的 NAND 製造商,除了中國製造商,都有 100 層以上的 TLC 或 QLC 樣品。

  • We have been tested and provide and saw more development for all the customer.

    我們已經過測試並為所有客戶提供並看到了更多的發展。

  • It all depend on the NAND maker, the capital investment and how they view about their total output and planning.

    這一切都取決於 NAND 製造商、資本投資以及他們對總產量和計劃的看法。

  • I think different NAND maker have a different strategy toward 2020.

    我認為不同的 NAND 製造商對 2020 年有不同的戰略。

  • But frankly speaking, we believe from May 2020 majority NAND maker will transition from 96-layer, 92-layer into 100-plus layer that's between 112 to 144-layer TLC, QLC production ramp.

    但坦率地說,我們相信從 2020 年 5 月起,多數 NAND 製造商將從 96 層、92 層過渡到 100 層以上,即 112 層到 144 層之間的 TLC,QLC 生產量增加。

  • But the percentage depend on each NAND maker capital investment and how quickly they will ship to more from 30% to 100-plus layer product.

    但是這個百分比取決於每個 NAND 製造商的資本投資以及他們將多快運送到更多從 30% 到 100 層以上的產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Couple of follow-ups.

    幾個跟進。

  • I want to find -- a better understand how you see your current revenue mix by channel versus OEM versus NAND manufacturer.

    我想找到 - 更好地了解您如何看待您當前的收入組合(按渠道、OEM 和 NAND 製造商)。

  • Any color here will be great.

    這裡的任何顏色都會很棒。

  • And I have follow-ups.

    我有後續行動。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We see Q3, our PC OEM and channel are roughly 50-50.

    我們看到 Q3,我們的 PC OEM 和渠道大約是 50-50。

  • But we see the Q4 PC OEM portion will grow stronger than channel because we see our Q4 will maintain a good momentum for clients the controller growth.

    但我們看到第四季度 PC OEM 部分的增長將強於渠道,因為我們看到我們的第四季度將保持對客戶控制器增長的良好勢頭。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And then what about, as your Korean customer -- the mix of Korean customers reduce should I assume your exposure to the NAND manufacturers would be less?

    那麼,作為您的韓國客戶,韓國客戶的組合會減少,我是否應該假設您與 NAND 製造商的接觸會減少呢?

  • Or any color there?

    或者那裡有什麼顏色?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • If you're talking specifically about our eMMC controller, within that space, with our Korean customers coming down, we also have our U.S. customers going up.

    如果您專門談論我們的 eMMC 控制器,在該領域內,隨著我們的韓國客戶下降,我們的美國客戶也在上升。

  • And so this is a leading to a situation, where if you were to look at our eMMC UFS revenue stream for next year, we believe that there could still be certain -- some downside risks relating to our Korean customer.

    因此,這導致了一種情況,如果您查看我們明年的 eMMC UFS 收入流,我們認為仍然可能存在一些與我們的韓國客戶相關的下行風險。

  • But at the same time the growth momentum that we have from our U.S. customers and from our China module makers, these upside opportunities are more than sufficient to cover the downside risk that we anticipate from our Korean customers for next year.

    但與此同時,我們從美國客戶和中國組件製造商那裡獲得的增長勢頭,這些上行機會足以彌補我們對韓國客戶明年預期的下行風險。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And then moving on to Shannon.

    然後轉到香農。

  • When you talk about Shannon seeing growth into December and growth system into 2020, is that driven by the open channel or is -- or other parts of Shannon?

    當您談到香農看到 12 月的增長和 2020 年的增長系統時,這是由開放渠道驅動的,還是香農的其他部分?

  • And if it is open channel, how should I think about the opportunities in 2020?

    而如果是開放渠道,2020年的機會我該如何思考?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • See, primary growth for Shannon, moving from Q3 to Q4 or 2020, is based on open channel SSD solution.

    看,香農的主要增長,從第三季度到第四季度或 2020 年,是基於開放通道 SSD 解決方案。

  • And we have multiple program with Alibaba and the other customer from BAT.

    我們與阿里巴巴和 BAT 的另一個客戶有多個項目。

  • And we do believe because the new business model with a NAND consign we will -- can be more aggressive to engage business with Alibaba.

    我們確實相信,因為我們將採用 NAND 委託的新商業模式——可以更積極地與阿里巴巴開展業務。

  • Because as you know this year due to NAND price decline sharply really we hesitated to take a more business with Alibaba because the -- because margin is almost close to 0. But if I think for next year we're willing to grow as fast as we can with Alibaba.

    因為正如你所知,今年由於 NAND 價格大幅下跌,我們真的猶豫是否要與阿里巴巴開展更多業務,因為 - 因為利潤率幾乎接近 0。但如果我認為明年我們願意以最快的速度增長我們可以與阿里巴巴。

  • And from other customers, I think, we probably sell the solution.

    我認為,從其他客戶那裡,我們可能會出售解決方案。

  • So from net, net we see the overall Shannon business going to grow much healthier than this year and much stronger than 2019.

    因此,從淨值來看,我們看到整體香農業務將比今年更健康,比 2019 年更強勁。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And is this going to be a consignment of the raw material NAND?

    這會是原材料NAND的寄售嗎?

  • How are you going to be able to leverage your existing relationship?

    你將如何利用現有的關係?

  • In other words, would you facilitate or have your U.S. based customers to supply the necessary NAND to Alibaba and this way there will be a win-win situation for everyone?

    換句話說,您是否會促進或讓您的美國客戶向阿里巴巴提供必要的 NAND,這樣每個人都會雙贏?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • So as we said before, in China, enterprise SSD solution is always selling solution.

    所以正如我們之前所說,在中國,企業級SSD解決方案一直是銷售解決方案。

  • For U.S. enterprise we only focus on enterprise SSD controller business.

    對於美國企業,我們只專注於企業 SSD 控制器業務。

  • We don't have value to sell enterprise SSD solution in U.S. to compete with Samsung, Intel and other NAND makers.

    我們沒有價值在美國銷售企業級 SSD 解決方案來與三星、英特爾和其他 NAND 製造商競爭。

  • But I think the -- through the collaboration engagement with Alibaba, we gained much broader and wider potential solution, not just open channel and other in -- such as the key value.

    但我認為——通過與阿里巴巴的合作,我們獲得了更廣泛和更廣泛的潛在解決方案,而不僅僅是開放渠道和其他方面——比如關鍵價值。

  • And also hybrid SSD, this all [potential] development and help us have a much better opportunity to engage progressively into U.S. customer.

    還有混合 SSD,這都是 [潛在的] 發展,並幫助我們有更好的機會逐步接觸美國客戶。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • And just 1 more follow up.

    只需再進行 1 次跟進。

  • How do you see the mix of NAND used in 2020 between the QLC and TLC?

    您如何看待 2020 年 QLC 和 TLC 之間使用的 NAND 組合?

  • And how do you see it changing from this year to next year?

    您如何看待從今年到明年的變化?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • As you can see QLC today primarily produced is for Intel and Micron.

    正如您所見,今天主要為英特爾和美光生產的 QLC。

  • And moving to 2020, I believe all NAND maker going to produce QLC.

    到 2020 年,我相信所有 NAND 製造商都會生產 QLC。

  • However, the total output probably is just between 10% to 15%.

    然而,總產量可能只是在 10% 到 15% 之間。

  • And -- but we do have really good news because PC OEM it take a long time to accept QLC based SSD.

    而且——但我們確實有好消息,因為 PC OEM 需要很長時間才能接受基於 QLC 的 SSD。

  • Now all PC OEM, they can take QLC SSD based for the value line.

    現在所有的PC OEM,他們都可以以QLC SSD為基礎的價值線。

  • So we see the client SSD controller will grow not only for the high end and the mainstream but also value line.

    所以我們看到客戶端SSD控制器不僅會增長到高端和主流,還會增長價值線。

  • And for the long-term we see QLC become very important role and product mix for both client SSD as well as datacenter.

    從長遠來看,我們看到 QLC 成為客戶端 SSD 和數據中心非常重要的角色和產品組合。

  • Because for datacenter storage SSD, QLC probably with the best quality package solution to meet the customer needs.

    因為對於數據中心存儲 SSD,QLC 可能以最優質的封裝解決方案來滿足客戶的需求。

  • And with the hybrid solution and equated with a persistent memory SSD and then QLC based SSD probably will be long-term solution for datacenter to balance the cost and performance.

    而採用混合解決方案並等同於持久內存 SSD,然後基於 QLC 的 SSD 可能會成為數據中心平衡成本和性能的長期解決方案。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Would you actually be able to get a better pricing on QLC versus TLC for the same product or for the similar application?

    對於相同的產品或類似的應用,您真的能夠在 QLC 上獲得比 TLC 更好的價格嗎?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I cannot comment for that.

    我無法對此發表評論。

  • But I think that we all based on customers, their volume and their end customers and to do the pricing.

    但我認為我們都根據客戶、他們的數量和他們的最終客戶來進行定價。

  • And this is really all customer driven and pricing is sensitive, so I cannot comment for that.

    這實際上是所有客戶驅動的,定價很敏感,所以我不能對此發表評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rajvindra Gill of Needham and Company.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Needham and Company 的 Rajvindra Gill。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • Congrats as well on the good results.

    也恭喜取得好成績。

  • Well, the first 1, wonder if you could kind of elaborate further on what you're seeing in the NAND environment?

    嗯,第一個,想知道您是否可以進一步詳細說明您在 NAND 環境中看到的內容?

  • You'd mentioned some sort of stabilization in the pricing dynamic.

    你提到了定價動態的某種穩定。

  • And your PC OEM customers are more confident and business procurement.

    並且您的 PC OEM 客戶更有信心和業務採購。

  • So I was wondering if you could maybe discuss how that has changed over the last, say, 6 months…

    所以我想知道你是否可以討論一下過去,比如 6 個月,情況發生了怎樣的變化……

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I believe -- go ahead.

    我相信——繼續。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • And how do you see the NAND supply demand dynamic going forward into the first half of next year?

    您如何看待明年上半年的 NAND 供應需求動態?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We see after the (inaudible) Toshiba Memory, the Yokkaichi fab power outage and NAND makers start to leverage the reasons and to really moving the price up.

    我們看到在(聽不清)東芝存儲器之後,四日市工廠停電和 NAND 製造商開始利用這些原因並真正抬高價格。

  • Now from September moving to -- and into Q4 the price -- NAND price is relatively stable, that is helping the -- all the player in the food chain to place the activity in the business.

    現在從 9 月到第四季度,NAND 價格相對穩定,這有助於食品鏈中的所有參與者將活動置於業務中。

  • And we see that's why the demand is getting stronger as the NAND is much stable.

    我們看到這就是為什麼隨著 NAND 非常穩定,需求變得越來越強的原因。

  • Into Q1 2020, due to seasonality and -- see the NAND price could be flat or slightly decline, this all depends the demand and supply.

    進入 2020 年第一季度,由於季節性因素以及 NAND 價格可能持平或略有下降,這一切都取決於供需。

  • Because most of the NAND maker today, the inventory is back to normal level.

    因為今天大部分 NAND 製造商的庫存都恢復到正常水平。

  • So there's no need for them to aggressively pushing the price or moving around the extra inventory.

    因此,他們沒有必要大力推高價格或轉移額外的庫存。

  • So we believe the price will be stable and -- into Q1 as well as the whole '20.

    因此,我們相信價格將保持穩定,並且 - 到第一季度以及整個 20 年。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • And you mentioned, Riyadh, an improvement in the profitability for your client SSD controllers.

    您提到,利雅得,您的客戶端 SSD 控制器的盈利能力有所提高。

  • In the past, you had mentioned that a lot of your customers -- your flash maker customers were buying cheaper DRAM-less SSDs to clear out that excess inventory.

    過去,您曾提到您的許多客戶——您的閃存製造商客戶正在購買更便宜的無 DRAM 固態硬盤來清理多餘的庫存。

  • And there was about a 20% discount in your ASPs relative to those 2 products, the DRAM-less versus the DRAM-SSDs.

    相對於這 2 種產品,DRAM-less 與 DRAM-SSD 相比,您的 ASP 有大約 20% 的折扣。

  • Can we talk about -- I would assume logically that as you start shipping more PC OEM business that the ASPs for your controller -- client controller SSDs should start to kind of move back up to more normal ranges.

    我們能否談談 - 我會從邏輯上假設,隨著您開始運送更多 PC OEM 業務,您的控制器的 ASP - 客戶端控制器 SSD 應該開始回到更正常的範圍。

  • So just can you remind -- could you let me know if that's the case.

    所以你能提醒一下 - 如果是這樣的話,你能告訴我嗎?

  • Should we start seeing more stable ASPs in client SSD specifically and hence a return to more normalized gross profit from that business?

    我們是否應該開始在客戶端 SSD 中看到更穩定的 ASP,從而從該業務中恢復更正常的毛利潤?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Our control ASPs for our products -- all our products including our SSD controllers are generally stable over time but they do fluctuate somewhat quarter-after-quarter up or down based on product mix and other factors.

    我們產品的控制 ASP——我們所有的產品,包括我們的 SSD 控制器,隨著時間的推移通常是穩定的,但它們確實會根據產品組合和其他因素逐季上下波動。

  • And we saw some of this in the previous quarters of this year.

    我們在今年前幾個季度看到了其中一些。

  • Our ASPs are generally higher for newer or more advanced SSD such as PCIe NVMe versus legacy Shannon, our ASPs are also higher for full feature SSDs such as with performance oriented with DRAM SSDs versus lower cost DRAM-less.

    對於 PCIe NVMe 等更新或更先進的 SSD,我們的 ASP 通常比傳統的 Shannon 更高,我們的 ASP 對於全功能 SSD 也更高,例如以性能為導向的 DRAM SSD 與低成本的 DRAM-less 相比。

  • We also offer our module -- our flash -- NAND flash makers, the module makers, a broad range of SSD controllers from high performance to mainstream and value line and procurement patterns could change from time to time.

    我們還提供我們的模塊——我們的閃存——NAND 閃存製造商、模塊製造商、從高性能到主流的各種 SSD 控制器,價值線和採購模式可能會不時改變。

  • In Q2 we saw strong sales of controllers for DRAM-less SSDs.

    在第二季度,我們看到了用於 DRAM-less SSD 的控制器的強勁銷售。

  • But in Q3 sales were much stronger for DRAM, with DRAM SSDs.

    但在第三季度,DRAM 的銷量要強勁得多,其中包括 DRAM SSD。

  • Our sales mix is also quickly migrating to PCIe NVMe and 1/3 of our sales in Q4 last year were NVMe.

    我們的銷售組合也在迅速遷移到 PCIe NVMe,去年第四季度我們 1/3 的銷售額是 NVMe。

  • But by the fourth quarter of this year at least half of our controllers -- SSD controller sales are going to be NVMe.

    但到今年第四季度,我們至少有一半的控制器——SSD 控制器銷售將是 NVMe。

  • Hope that's helpful.

    希望這會有所幫助。

  • Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

    Rajvindra S. Gill - Senior Analyst

  • The last question on Alibaba.

    關於阿里巴巴的最後一個問題。

  • You mentioned moving to kind of consignment, a business arrangement, where you would have lower revenue but higher margin because you're not selling the raw NAND.

    你提到轉向寄售,一種商業安排,你的收入會降低,但利潤率會更高,因為你不銷售原始 NAND。

  • Where are we with that kind of process, do you think that's in the works and Alibaba is going to agree to that?

    我們在哪裡有這樣的流程,你認為這是在進行中,阿里巴巴會同意嗎?

  • And I think in 2018 or 2017 you were doing about $100 million of Alibaba and Ferri revenue combined, should we expect revenue contribution overall but higher margins.

    我認為在 2018 年或 2017 年,阿里巴巴和 Ferri 的總收入約為 1 億美元,如果我們預期整體收入貢獻但利潤率更高的話。

  • Just want to get a sense of where we are in that process and how we think about the economics of that?

    只是想了解我們在這個過程中的位置以及我們如何看待這個過程的經濟性?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We see in this year because we suffered a sharp NAND price decline this is several business and we cannot deal with Alibaba, because other NAND makers are much more aggressive in pricing, because they try to move their excess inventory.

    我們在今年看到,因為我們遭受了 NAND 價格急劇下跌,這是幾項業務,我們無法與阿里巴巴打交道,因為其他 NAND 製造商在定價方面更加激進,因為他們試圖轉移多餘的庫存。

  • Now we believe Alibaba have agreed, will consign for NAND consign this model.

    現在我們相信阿里巴巴已經同意,將代銷NAND代銷這個型號。

  • And we probably going to use at least 2 different kind of NAND that's selected by Alibaba.

    我們可能會使用阿里巴巴選擇的至少 2 種不同類型的 NAND。

  • Because I think what's happening in first half of next year, and -- but we just don't know exactly the date because there are certain procedures and the procurement process and legal document need to be signed.

    因為我認為明年上半年會發生什麼,而且——但我們只是不知道確切的日期,因為有一些程序,需要簽署採購流程和法律文件。

  • And -- but that would really help us because Alibaba is a major business for our Shannon business.

    而且——但這對我們真的很有幫助,因為阿里巴巴是我們香農業務的主要業務。

  • And when it become consigned the gross margin and all the business we can be much more flexible, aggressive to take, because -- and there is guarantee we make a profit.

    當它委託毛利率和所有業務時,我們可以更加靈活,積極地採取,因為 - 並且有保證我們會盈利。

  • It doesn't matter NAND is excess of the supply bigger in demand or shortage.

    NAND 是供大於求或供不應求都無關緊要。

  • So that is where makers are very helpful to balance the other SSD solution sale to other customer in China.

    因此,製造商非常有助於平衡向中國其他客戶銷售其他 SSD 解決方案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • First of all, could we talk a little bit about the progress on enterprise controllers, both for open channel SSDs as well as for other enterprise customers, I think you started shipping something in Q3 and potentially increase in Q4.

    首先,我們能否談談企業控制器的進展,無論是開放通道 SSD 還是其他企業客戶,我認為你們在第三季度開始出貨,並可能在第四季度增加。

  • Could we take a stab at when does enterprise controller revenues really become material, let's say, 5% of your total SSD controller business or something like that?

    我們能否試探一下企業控制器收入何時真正變得重要,比如說,佔您 SSD 控制器總業務的 5% 或類似的東西?

  • And I had a follow up.

    我進行了跟進。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Our enterprise controller began shipping in third quarter and through our channel SSD to Alibaba and other customers in China.

    是的,我們的企業控制器於第三季度開始發貨,並通過我們的渠道 SSD 向阿里巴巴和中國的其他客戶發貨。

  • But in Q4, we expect to begin shipment to U.S. customers for enterprise SSD.

    但在第四季度,我們預計將開始向美國客戶出貨企業級 SSD。

  • Volume will be very small this year.

    今年的成交量會很小。

  • I think you know our enterprise SSD controller it can be used for both function open channel SSD and standard NVMe.

    我想你知道我們的企業級 SSD 控制器,它可以用於功能開放通道 SSD 和標準 NVMe。

  • We also start to add more features to provide key value into the NVMe solution.

    我們還開始添加更多功能,為 NVMe 解決方案提供關鍵價值。

  • That help us to customize the solution, tailored for specific customers.

    這有助於我們為特定客戶定制解決方案。

  • That can differentiate on standard NVMe.

    這可以區分標準 NVMe。

  • And we believe that will increase the demand for our enterprise controller for the U.S. customer, also help our SSD enterprise SSD solution sales in China for 2020.

    我們相信,這將增加美國客戶對我們的企業級控制器的需求,也有助於我們的 SSD 企業級 SSD 解決方案在 2020 年在中國的銷售。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Let me also add, we are not sure when we can have our enterprise, we can grow our enterprise SSD controller sales to where it accounts for say 5% of our total sales.

    我還要補充一點,我們不確定什麼時候可以擁有我們的企業,我們可以將企業 SSD 控制器的銷售額增長到占我們總銷售額的 5%。

  • We have been making very good progress with our customers in China through Shannon as well as our U.S. customers, where we will begin initial shipments in the fourth quarter of this year.

    我們通過香農與我們在中國的客戶以及我們的美國客戶取得了非常好的進展,我們將在今年第四季度開始在美國進行首次發貨。

  • So we are making good progress but we still are unsure how quickly we can scale our business.

    因此,我們取得了良好的進展,但我們仍然不確定我們能夠以多快的速度擴展我們的業務。

  • But that outlook is certainly very optimistic for us.

    但這種前景對我們來說無疑是非常樂觀的。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • So traditionally, Q4 is not a peak season, I think, we are seeing a pickup in every business.

    所以傳統上,第四季度不是旺季,我認為,我們看到每項業務都在回升。

  • Could you characterize, a little bit in terms of, what is the driver for demand?

    您能否稍微描述一下需求的驅動因素是什麼?

  • And are you seeing any kind of pull ins because of tariffs or anticipation of tariffs et cetera, given that also your other supply chain peers have kind of commented as that potentially is the reason for some of the pull in that they have seen in Q3 as well as in Q4.

    您是否因為關稅或關稅預期等而看到任何形式的拉動,因為您的其他供應鏈同行也有評論說這可能是他們在第三季度看到的一些拉動的原因和第四季度一樣。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I think there are a couple of reason behind it.

    我認為這背後有幾個原因。

  • The first, we do not see any pull ins from customers from Q1 to Q4.

    首先,從第一季度到第四季度,我們沒有看到任何來自客戶的拉動。

  • Because their design pipeline is very strong and the demand is more globally, not just 1 or 2 region from our sales side.

    因為他們的設計管道非常強大,而且需求更加全球化,而不僅僅是我們銷售方面的 1 或 2 個地區。

  • And the main reason, because the demand naturally is overall the channel demand is not that strong.

    而主要原因,因為需求自然是整體的,渠道需求不是那麼旺盛。

  • So while the demand is very strong for our controller?

    那麼,雖然對我們的控制器的需求非常強烈?

  • We believe the main reason is because the NAND price becomes stable, the inventory back to the normal that's why the more -- it's more business involved in the business build up.

    我們認為主要原因是因為 NAND 價格趨於穩定,庫存恢復正常,這就是為什麼更多 - 更多的業務參與業務建立。

  • And as you can see, the PC market this year that has not declined it's become flat or 1% growth from 2018 because new smartphone model for several China customers start to ramp.

    正如你所看到的,今年的 PC 市場並沒有下降,它與 2018 年相比持平或增長了 1%,因為針對一些中國客戶的新智能手機型號開始增加。

  • And we benefited from some transition from eMMC to UFS.

    我們受益於從 eMMC 到 UFS 的一些過渡。

  • As well as our end customer might gain market share in the client SSD.

    以及我們的最終客戶可能會在客戶端 SSD 中獲得市場份額。

  • That's why we do see the strong demand for our controller in all sectors.

    這就是為什麼我們確實看到所有行業對我們的控制器的強烈需求。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • So 1 last question, I think, if you could take a stab at, I think, 2020, I think, you mentioned that client SSD, you have confidence of growing about 10% to 20%.

    所以最後一個問題,我認為,如果你能在 2020 年試一試,我認為,你提到客戶端 SSD,你有信心增長約 10% 到 20%。

  • Should we expect client SSD controller is still the fastest growing business next year, or should we see faster growth for eMMC and UFS given the dynamics in mobile?

    我們是否應該期望客戶端 SSD 控制器仍然是明年增長最快的業務,或者我們是否應該看到 eMMC 和 UFS 鑑於移動領域的動態增長更快?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Well, if you are looking at it from a percentage year-over-year percentage growth, we also have to deal with a lot of large numbers.

    好吧,如果您從同比百分比增長來看它,我們還必須處理很多大數字。

  • Our client SSD controller sales are already well over half of our total revenue, accounts for well over half of our revenue.

    我們的客戶 SSD 控制器銷售額已經占我們總收入的一半以上,占我們收入的一半以上。

  • So it will be growing at rocket rates that we saw in the -- in past years is going to be increasingly difficult because of how big it has become.

    因此,它將以我們在過去幾年中看到的火箭速度增長,因為它已經變得越來越大,因此變得越來越困難。

  • But to continue growing rapidly for the foreseeable future it is still possible, given where we are in the displacement cycle of hard disc drives by SSDs for our client devices, right.

    但是,在可預見的未來繼續快速增長仍然是可能的,因為我們正處於我們的客戶端設備的 SSD 硬盤驅動器的置換週期中,對。

  • So as you know there are about 500 million client devices and approximately half of these devices have already converted from hard disc drive to SSDs.

    如您所知,大約有 5 億台客戶端設備,其中大約一半的設備已經從硬盤驅動器轉換為 SSD。

  • But we still have the remaining 200 plus million units of client hard disc drives that are still shipping.

    但是我們仍然有剩餘的 200 多萬個仍在發貨的客戶端硬盤驅動器。

  • And these are still opportunities for us to grab for our customers to work with OEMs to transition their products from HDDs to SSDs, so there is still a lot of growth opportunities upside opportunities for us for the next few years.

    這些仍然是我們抓住的機會,讓我們的客戶與 OEM 合作,將他們的產品從 HDD 過渡到 SSD,因此未來幾年我們仍有很多增長機會和上行機會。

  • So we feel fairly good that our SSD controllers will continue to do very well in the years to come.

    所以我們覺得我們的 SSD 控制器在未來幾年會繼續表現出色。

  • But at the same time we have the benefit of our eMMC UFS rebounding because of our position with -- on the UFS side as well as Chinese module makers that Wallace talked about, plus we have the recovery of our SSD solution; specifically, Shannon.

    但與此同時,我們的 eMMC UFS 反彈受益,因為我們在 UFS 方面以及華萊士談到的中國模塊製造商方面的立場,再加上我們的 SSD 解決方案的恢復;具體來說,香農。

  • And the benefit of us going to Ferri automotive applications.

    以及我們去 Ferri 汽車應用的好處。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • So let me add 1 comment here, the reason we have such a strong confident to grow our client SSD moving into 2020 that because as you know 3 years ago we see the more NAND maker develop their own internal controller for client and enterprise.

    所以讓我在這裡添加 1 條評論,我們之所以有如此強大的信心將我們的客戶 SSD 發展到 2020 年,因為如您所知,3 年前我們看到更多的 NAND 製造商為客戶和企業開發自己的內部控制器。

  • But now we see more and more NAND maker come to us because they want to outsource the mainstream and the value line SSD controller to SMI.

    但現在我們看到越來越多的 NAND 製造商來找我們,因為他們想將主流和價值線的 SSD 控制器外包給 SMI。

  • So this has become more opportunities and much more interesting for us because sometimes we don't even have enough resource to handle multiple project.

    所以這對我們來說已經成為更多的機會和更有趣的事情,因為有時我們甚至沒有足夠的資源來處理多個項目。

  • Because as they see the mainstream value line SSD become commodity, there is really no need for them to develop controller to compete in such a commodity market because the margin will be low.

    因為當他們看到主流價值線SSD成為商品時,他們真的沒有必要開發控制器來競爭這樣的商品市場,因為利潤率會很低。

  • They rather outsource to third party like SMI to do so.

    他們寧願外包給像 SMI 這樣的第三方來這樣做。

  • So we definitely see the strong momentum from our current existing customer.

    因此,我們肯定看到了當前現有客戶的強勁勢頭。

  • We are also looking forward to more customer coming to SMI, including NAND makers.

    我們也期待更多的客戶來到星美,包括 NAND 製造商。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Sujeeva Desilva of ROTH Capital.

    下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital 的 Sujeeva Desilva。

  • Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

    Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

  • With the shift in the SSD solutions business model away from the -- toward the consignment, can you give us a sense of what the realistic revenue peak range might be versus past?

    隨著 SSD 解決方案業務模式從 - 轉向寄售,您能否讓我們了解與過去相比,現實的收入峰值範圍可能是多少?

  • Like give a sense of the delta there.

    就像給人一種三角洲的感覺。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • One way to look at it is based on the projects that we have on hand, we believe we can scale our SSD solutions business back to what we saw in 2016-'17 type levels.

    看待它的一種方式是基於我們手頭的項目,我們相信我們可以將我們的 SSD 解決方案業務擴展到我們在 2016-'17 類型水平上看到的水平。

  • So when we -- if we were to -- if you were to look at our business activities at those years and to just look at the gross profitability, when we move to a consignment business, we should be able to enjoy that sort of level of gross profit levels, those type of gross profit levels.

    所以當我們——如果我們要——如果你看看我們那些年的業務活動,只看毛利潤,當我們轉向寄售業務時,我們應該能夠享受那種水平毛利潤水平,那些類型的毛利潤水平。

  • But the revenue associated with that is going to be a lot less because we are going to -- we won't have the pass through of the NAND components to our revenue when we move to a consignment model.

    但是與此相關的收入將會少很多,因為我們將——當我們轉向寄售模式時,我們不會將 NAND 組件傳遞到我們的收入中。

  • But the gross profit level should be comparable to what we saw in 2016-'17 type -- those years.

    但毛利潤水平應該與我們在 2016-17 年看到的那些年相媲美。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Let me comment beside Alibaba all other customer in China will still sell the enterprise SSD solution.

    讓我在阿里巴巴旁邊評論一下,中國所有其他客戶仍將銷售企業 SSD 解決方案。

  • But in 2016 and '17 we don't have a Baidu as our customer, we don't have a [Baiden], right.

    但是在 2016 年和 17 年,我們沒有百度作為我們的客戶,我們沒有 [Baiden],對吧。

  • So we are gaining more diversified customer in China.

    因此,我們在中國獲得了更加多元化的客戶。

  • So they -- that portion will continue growth for sale revenue.

    所以他們 - 這部分將繼續增長銷售收入。

  • For Alibaba, we believe, we want to focus on profit and it will help us to aggressively engage much multiple business because then we don't need to worry about the NAND inventory, we don't need to worry about the NAND price.

    對於阿里巴巴,我們認為,我們希望專注於利潤,這將有助於我們積極參與多種業務,因為這樣我們就不需要擔心 NAND 庫存,也不需要擔心 NAND 價格。

  • And we don't want to commit with a NAND maker either.

    我們也不想與 NAND 製造商合作。

  • So this would help us to focus on true business technology and make it pure profit from Alibaba such as NAND consignment business model.

    因此,這將有助於我們專注於真正的商業技術,並使其從阿里巴巴中獲得純利潤,例如 NAND 寄售商業模式。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Let me also add a bit to what Wallace is saying.

    讓我也補充一點華萊士所說的話。

  • Now when we are talking about our consignment business model, we are taking baby steps, working first with just 1 customer, Alibaba, moving into consignment model.

    現在,當我們談論我們的寄售業務模式時,我們正在邁出小步,首先與只有一個客戶阿里巴巴合作,進入寄售模式。

  • For our other customers it could be more limited because of this level of sophistication and size.

    對於我們的其他客戶來說,由於這種複雜程度和規模,它可能會受到更多限制。

  • Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

    Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

  • And then the SSD controller business, it sounds like the 4Q is shifting to a stronger OEM mix in the 50-50, you typically see OEM module maker.

    然後是 SSD 控制器業務,聽起來 4Q 正在轉向 50-50 年更強大的 OEM 組合,你通常會看到 OEM 模塊製造商。

  • What's the trend into 2020?

    2020年的趨勢是什麼?

  • Is the OEM now growing to a point, where it can sustainably be a larger part of the SSD controller market than the module maker or will it be still sort of mixed?

    OEM 現在是否發展到一定程度,它可以可持續地成為 SSD 控制器市場中比模塊製造商更大的一部分,還是會混合在一起?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We believe -- so we believe entering 2020 our OEM portion client SSD controller will be higher than module makers.

    我們相信——所以我們相信進入 2020 年,我們的 OEM 部分客戶端 SSD 控制器將高於模塊製造商。

  • Because we have more customer, provide solution to PC OEM customers.

    因為我們有更多的客戶,所以為 PC OEM 客戶提供解決方案。

  • Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

    Sujeeva Desilva - Senior Research Analyst

  • And then lastly, UFS sounds like you're doing well with the U.S. memory customer.

    最後,UFS 聽起來你與美國內存客戶合作得很好。

  • And you talked about leads with a -- additional customers, what timeframe would those potentially come to market, if they happen?

    你談到了與其他客戶的潛在客戶,如果他們發生,這些客戶可能會在什麼時間範圍內進入市場?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Probably second half of 2020.

    大概是2020年下半年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from the line of Weston Twigg of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

  • Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to follow-up on this consignment business and the revenue impact in the solutions business overall.

    我只是想跟進這個寄售業務以及整體解決方案業務的收入影響。

  • So what it sounds like is, your margins will improve but your revenue growth, I thought at one point you said it could get back to that kind of $100 million level that we saw before.

    所以聽起來是,你的利潤率會提高,但你的收入會增長,我認為你曾經說過它可能會回到我們之前看到的那種 1 億美元的水平。

  • But in the last comment it sounded like maybe that's not the case.

    但在最後的評論中,聽起來可能並非如此。

  • Can you help us just to understand what the revenue impact of the consignment model will be?

    您能否幫助我們了解寄售模式對收入的影響?

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • For our Shannon products, if we were not to move to a consignment model, our revenue levels next year will likely revert back to what we saw in 2016 and '17.

    對於我們的香農產品,如果我們不轉向寄售模式,明年我們的收入水平可能會恢復到 2016 年和 17 年的水平。

  • But as we move to a consignment model the revenues are going to come down but the gross profit dollars, the gross profit dollars are going to be comparable to what we saw in '16-'17.

    但是當我們轉向寄售模式時,收入會下降,但毛利美元,毛利美元將與我們在 16-17 年看到的相當。

  • Without the NAND pass through our revenue will be affected but at the same time our gross profits are going to be protected.

    如果不通過 NAND,我們的收入將受到影響,但同時我們的毛利潤將受到保護。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • But also I want to -- I just want to remind you like our sale revenue with Alibaba this year is very small, so you can do the math.

    但我也想 - 我只是想提醒你,今年我們與阿里巴巴的銷售收入非常少,所以你可以算一下。

  • Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And then the other question I have is just on the Ferri business, automotive growth in 2020.

    然後我的另一個問題只是關於 Ferri 業務,即 2020 年的汽車增長。

  • You mentioned it earlier in the call but could you help quantify that opportunity for us?

    您之前在電話會議中提到過,但您能幫我們量化一下這個機會嗎?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, because Ferri NAND price decline we suffer quite a lot this year.

    是的,因為 Ferri NAND 價格下跌,今年我們遭受了很多痛苦。

  • But when NAND price become stable, I think, we have a much better opportunity to grow in 2020.

    但我認為,當 NAND 價格趨於穩定時,我們在 2020 年有更好的增長機會。

  • So overall I think, we focus on more profit and not just the sale revenue growth.

    所以總的來說,我認為,我們關注更多的利潤,而不僅僅是銷售收入的增長。

  • But we focus on more profit growth.

    但我們專注於更多的利潤增長。

  • And that is our main strategy for our SSD solution business for 2020.

    這就是我們 2020 年 SSD 解決方案業務的主要戰略。

  • Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Weston David Twigg - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Is it possible to help bracket the type of growth we may see on that Ferri side or is it just hard to say at this point?

    是否有可能幫助我們在費里方面看到的增長類型,或者在這一點上很難說?

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I think Ferri we will -- I can only say, it will grow very well in 2020.

    我認為 Ferri 我們會——我只能說,它會在 2020 年發展得很好。

  • Riyadh Lai - CFO

    Riyadh Lai - CFO

  • Yes, this is one of the means for us to get back.

    是的,這是我們回來的手段之一。

  • If we do not move -- anyhow, let's say, back to the hypothetical that we were not to move to a consignment model, which is one of means for us, our Ferri product line to bring our overall revenue back to the 2016-'17 type range.

    如果我們不採取行動——無論如何,假設我們不會轉向寄售模式,這對我們來說是一種手段,我們的 Ferri 產品線將我們的整體收入帶回到 2016 年——” 17 種類型範圍。

  • And so it's an important factor for us to drive the -- our business back to where it should be.

    因此,這對我們來說是推動我們的業務回到應有的水平的一個重要因素。

  • So it's not just Shannon and there it's about moving the consignment but also contribution from our Ferri products.

    因此,不僅僅是香農,還有關於運送貨物,還有我們的 Ferri 產品的貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Ladies and gentlemen that concludes our Q&A session.

    女士們,先生們,我們的問答環節結束了。

  • And I would like to hand the conference back to Mr. Wallace Kou, president and CEO.

    我想把這次會議交還給總裁兼首席執行官寇華萊士先生。

  • Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

    Chia-Chang Kou - Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I would like to thank all of you for joining us today and your continuing interest in Silicon Motion.

    我要感謝大家今天加入我們,感謝你們對 Silicon Motion 的持續關注。

  • We will be attending several investor conferences in Asia and the U.S. during the fourth quarter.

    我們將在第四季度參加在亞洲和美國舉行的幾次投資者會議。

  • This will -- this event will be available on our website.

    這將——該活動將在我們的網站上提供。

  • Thank you in joining us.

    感謝您加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this conference for today and thank you for participating.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束,感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。