殼牌 (SHEL) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's third-quarter 2026 financial results announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session alongside Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan.

歡迎收看殼牌 2026 年第三季財務業績發布。殼牌財務長 Sinead Gorman 將簡報本次業績，隨後與殼牌執行長 Wael Sawan 一同主持問答環節。

Welcome, and thank you for joining Shell's third-quarter results presentation for 2026. This quarter, we once again demonstrated our ability to deliver strong results in a highly volatile and elevated commodity price environment.

歡迎各位，感謝您參加殼牌 2026 年第三季業績簡報。本季，我們再次證明，在大宗商品價格高度波動且處於高位的環境下，我們仍具備交出強勁成果的能力。

Our diverse portfolio, performance focus, and trading capabilities allowed us to capture further opportunities while we continue to work hard supplying our customers. All of this helped us deliver some $10.8 billion of adjusted earnings and $21 billion of cash flow from operations. We could not have delivered this without the hard work and dedication from colleagues right across Shell.

我們多元化的投資組合、對績效的專注以及交易能力，使我們在持續努力為客戶供應的同時，得以掌握更多機會。這一切協助我們實現約 108 億美元的調整後盈餘，以及 210 億美元的營運現金流。若沒有殼牌各地同仁的辛勤付出與投入，我們不可能達成這些成果。

Let's turn to the performance of our businesses in more detail. In Upstream, we continue to deliver exceptional operational performance. In August, our assets in the Gulf of America delivered the highest monthly production in over two decades.

接下來我們更詳細地看看各業務的表現。在上游業務方面，我們持續展現卓越的營運表現。8 月，我們在美洲灣（Gulf of America）的資產創下逾二十年來最高的單月產量。

In Integrated Gas, we also delivered strong results underpinned by our advantaged LNG trading and optimization capabilities, and we look forward to unlocking the full potential of the ARC Resources acquisition, which completed in September. The acquisition strengthens our position in Canada, which is a key heartland and contributes 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent of production a day.

在整合式天然氣業務方面，我們同樣交出強勁成果，主要受惠於我們具優勢的 LNG 交易與最佳化能力；同時，我們也期待釋放 9 月完成交割的 ARC Resources 收購案的全部潛力。此項收購強化了我們在加拿大的布局；加拿大是重要核心區域，每日貢獻 37 萬桶油當量的產量。

Our Marketing business performed well despite experiencing a lower margin environment. We were also pleased to see Shell Lubricants recognized as the best-selling supplier for a record 20th year in a row. This is testament to two decades of dedication from our team in supplying the high-quality lubricant and fluid solutions that our customers need.

儘管利潤率環境較低，我們的行銷業務仍表現良好。我們也很高興看到殼牌潤滑油連續第 20 年、並創紀錄地獲評為最暢銷供應商。這證明了我們團隊二十年來的投入，持續提供客戶所需的高品質潤滑油與流體解決方案。

Turning to Chemicals and Products, where performance was strong. In Products, record results were driven by another quarter of impressive refining performance as we achieved a utilization rate above 100% when excluding Rheinland, which was impacted by low Rhine water levels. In this dislocated market, we are showing agility in support of keeping our customers supplied. And Chemicals was free cash flow positive for a second quarter in a row as the team continues to work hard to unlock greater value.

再看化工與產品業務，表現強勁。在產品業務方面，創紀錄的成果來自又一季亮眼的煉油表現；若排除受萊茵河水位偏低影響的 Rheinland，我們的產能利用率超過 100%。在這個失衡的市場中，我們展現敏捷性，以支持持續為客戶供應。而化工業務連續第二季實現自由現金流為正，團隊持續努力以釋放更大價值。

Across the company, we have been complementing our strong operational performance with important portfolio changes through both further strengthening areas where we are competitively advantaged whilst also high-grading wherever we see the opportunity to do so. This was demonstrated through three important announcements we've recently made.

在全公司層面，我們在維持強勁營運表現的同時，也透過重要的投資組合調整來相輔相成：一方面進一步強化我們具競爭優勢的領域，另一方面也在看到機會時持續進行資產優化（high-grading）。這可從我們近期發布的三項重要公告中看出。

First, there was the completion of the ARC Resources acquisition, which I mentioned earlier. This acquisition complements our existing footprint in Canada, strengthening our resource base for decades to come. It extends our best-in-basin and natural gas capabilities into liquids from a top-quartile, low-carbon intensity producer.

第一，是我先前提到的 ARC Resources 收購案完成交割。此項收購與我們在加拿大既有布局相互補強，強化我們未來數十年的資源基礎。它也讓我們將在盆地內領先（best-in-basin）的天然氣能力，延伸至來自一家具備低碳強度、位居前四分位的生產商之液體資源。

Secondly, we announced last month that we have taken a final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2. This expansion will double liquefaction capacity at the facility, with Shell receiving nearly 6 million tonnes per annum of additional LNG volumes. It strengthens both our advantaged position in Canada and our global LNG portfolio.

第二，我們於上月宣布，已就 LNG Canada 第二期（Phase 2）做出最終投資決策。此項擴建將使該設施的液化產能倍增，殼牌每年將新增近 600 萬噸 LNG 供應量。這同時強化了我們在加拿大的優勢地位以及全球 LNG 投資組合。

Thirdly, we announced the acquisition of Tri Star Energy, which more than doubles the number of company-owned convenience retail sites in the US. These announcements show how we are reallocating capital from non-core assets, like Cyprus Gas, end-of-life Gulf of America assets, and Jiffy Lubes, into businesses where we expect to create significant value, and we are very pleased with the progress thus far.

第三，我們宣布收購 Tri Star Energy，這將使我們在美國自有的便利零售據點數量增加逾一倍。這些公告顯示，我們正將資本自非核心資產（如 Cyprus Gas、美洲灣接近壽命終期的資產，以及 Jiffy Lubes）重新配置至我們預期可創造顯著價值的業務；我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。

Moving on to our financial framework. Our cash CapEx range for 2026 is now between $23 billion and $25 billion, which includes some $4 billion for the acquisition of ARC Resources. Since the end of last year, we have reduced net debt by $6 billion, with gearing at 17% at the end of Q3 or less than 3% when excluding leases. Taking a step back, I am really pleased to see that the strong performance that we have delivered has enabled us to further strengthen the balance sheet whilst completing the acquisition of ARC Resources, which added some $6 billion to our net debt position.

接著談我們的財務框架。我們 2026 年的現金資本支出（CapEx）區間目前為 230 億至 250 億美元，其中包含約 40 億美元用於收購 ARC Resources。自去年底以來，我們已將淨負債降低 60 億美元；第三季末槓桿率（gearing）為 17%，若排除租賃則低於 3%。退一步來看，我非常高興看到，我們所交出的強勁表現，使我們得以在完成 ARC Resources 收購（使淨負債增加約 60 億美元）的同時，進一步強化資產負債表。

Now turning to our shareholder distributions. Our policy of shareholder distributions of 40% to 50% of CFFO through the cycle remains sacrosanct, aligned with our commitment to deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. Today, we have announced a further $5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q4 results announcement. Our progressive dividend remains one of our key financial priorities, as can be seen by the 9% increase in our dividend per share over the last 12 months.

現在談股東回饋。我們在景氣循環中將營運現金流（CFFO）的 40% 至 50% 用於股東回饋的政策依然不可動搖，並與我們為股東提供具吸引力回報的承諾一致。今天，我們宣布新增 50 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫，預期在第四季業績發布前完成。我們的漸進式股利仍是關鍵財務優先事項之一，過去 12 個月每股股利提高 9% 即可見一斑。

So to summarize, our Q3 performance demonstrates the good progress that we are making against our strategy and highlights our ability to adapt and respond in times of higher volatility and elevated macro conditions. We continue with the relentless pursuit of the transformation of the company, strengthening our portfolio, and driving performance, discipline, and simplification across the organization. We look forward to sharing more about the strategic progress we've made at our Capital Markets Update, which will take place on February 4, together with our Q4 2026 results.

總結而言，我們第三季的表現展現了策略推進的良好進度，也凸顯我們在更高波動與宏觀環境偏高的情況下，仍能調整並回應的能力。我們持續不懈地推動公司轉型，強化投資組合，並在全組織推動績效、紀律與簡化。我們期待在 2 月 4 日舉行的資本市場更新會（Capital Markets Update）上，與 2026 年第四季業績一同分享更多策略進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now begin the question-and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（接線員指示）

Thank you for joining us today. As you just heard from Sinead, Shell delivered a very strong set of results in this third quarter, with a strong operational performance in a highly volatile environment.

感謝各位今天與會。正如您剛才從 Sinead 聽到的，殼牌在本次第三季交出非常強勁的一組成果，在高度波動的環境中展現強勁的營運表現。

Now, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. (Event Instructions)

接下來，Sinead 和我將回答各位的提問。（活動指示）

And with that, can we have the first question, please, Matt?

那麼，請 Matt 先讓我們進行第一個問題。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

Barclays 的 Lydia Rainforth。

Thank you, and good afternoon. And it's really pleasing to see the results coming through. Two questions, if I could. The first one, just in terms of the portfolio, from the outside, it does look like there's been a lot of progress this year from ARC to LNG Canada Phase 2. And the exploration team also looks like they've had a busy summer. Can you put into context for us how much more confident you are in the resource base to be able to deliver growth into the next decade compared to possibly the start of the year?

謝謝，午安。很高興看到這些成果逐步反映出來。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。第一個是關於投資組合：從外部看，今年從 ARC 到 LNG Canada 第二期，似乎有很大進展。而勘探團隊看起來也度過了一個忙碌的夏天。能否請你們為我們提供一些背景：相較於可能在年初時，你們對資源基礎能在下一個十年帶來成長的信心，現在提升了多少？

And then secondly, and a little bit linked to that, but energy security now does seem to be that dominant conversation across most countries. What do you think that means for Shell, and are there more opportunities out there? How do you have to think about the portfolio mix? Are governments asking for more contributions? So I appreciate their very particular questions, but your thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thank you.

第二個問題，且與前者有些關聯：能源安全如今似乎成為多數國家最主導的議題。你認為這對殼牌意味著什麼？外部是否還有更多機會？你們必須如何思考投資組合的配置？各國政府是否要求更多貢獻？我知道這些問題相當具體，但非常希望聽到你們的看法。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Lydia. Let me try to touch on both of those, starting maybe with the portfolio piece.

是的。謝謝你，Lydia。我試著同時回應這兩點，先從投資組合的部分談起。

When we started this journey, we said portfolio strengthening was going to be a core part of what we wanted to focus on. And you've touched on building the resource base. I'd also point to the great success and good momentum that we have had in actually high-grading the portfolio, lots of moves already over the last few months.

當我們開始這段旅程時，我們就說過，強化投資組合將是我們聚焦的核心之一。你也提到了建立資源基礎。我也要指出，我們在提升投資組合品質（high-grading）方面取得了很大的成功並且動能良好，過去幾個月已經做了很多動作。

Just in this quarter, we announced, for example, the sale of the Aphrodite Gas asset in the Eastern Med. We've announced the Na Kika-Coulomb completion. And we have others, for example, the Sprng platform in India, the onshore low-carbon, the one in the Netherlands, the sale to Total. All of that is really allowing us to high-grade the portfolio.

光是本季，我們就宣布了例如出售東地中海的 Aphrodite 天然氣資產。我們也宣布 Na Kika-Coulomb 的完工。另外還有其他項目，例如印度的 Sprng 平台、荷蘭的陸上低碳資產，出售給 Total。這些都確實讓我們得以提升投資組合品質。

If I shift to the resource bit, yes, no doubt, I have continuing increasing confidence. But to be fair, I always felt that we were going to make the moves at the right time as long as we found the opportunities that were going to be value accretive. So let's touch on a few of them.

如果我轉到資源這一塊，是的，毫無疑問，我的信心持續提升。但公平地說，我一直覺得，只要我們找到能夠增值（value accretive）的機會，我們就會在適當的時間採取行動。所以我們來談幾個例子。

LNG Canada Phase 2, really pleased, lots of effort by the team there with support from both the provincial and the federal government to get it into FID and an exciting opportunity for the future. If I look at ARC, completing from the beginning of discussions to end within six months and being able to already have a one month of contribution into the Q3 results, giving us longevity, giving us advantaged, low-cost, low-carbon resources that synergize with the rest of the portfolio.

LNG Canada 第二期，我們非常高興；團隊投入了大量努力，並在省政府與聯邦政府的支持下，推進到 FID（最終投資決策），這是未來令人振奮的機會。如果我看 ARC，從一開始的討論到完成在六個月內結束，而且已經能在第三季業績中貢獻一個月，為我們帶來長期性，帶來具優勢、低成本、低碳的資源，並與投資組合其他部分形成協同效應。

We announced Bay du Nord, which is, of course, an Equinor-run project that looks to FID early next year, again, continuing to add to our overall resource base but at the right points. Because this is not just about adding resources, this is about creating advantaged resources that allow us to have the longevity. 2030, as we have said in the past, is largely derisked. If I look into 2035, we're making very good progress, and of course, we'll share a bit more of that in Capital Markets Update.

我們宣布了 Bay du Nord，當然這是由 Equinor 主導的專案，目標是在明年初做出 FID，再次在適當的時間點持續擴充我們的整體資源基礎。因為這不只是增加資源，而是要打造具優勢的資源，讓我們能夠擁有長期性。如同我們過去所說，2030 年在很大程度上已經去風險（derisked）。如果我看向 2035 年，我們進展非常良好，當然我們也會在資本市場更新（Capital Markets Update）中分享更多。

The only other point I'll touch on, exploration, again, the restocking is going really well. I think the proof will be not just in 2026, but what happens in the next two years as we start to drill some of those wells. Early good signs from wells like Daenerys in the GoA. You read about Tupinambá, of course, BP as operator. And we're excited by the upcoming wells in Namibia, which follow through on the earlier success this year. So good momentum across the patch.

我另外想提的一點是勘探；補庫（restocking）進展也非常順利。我認為證明不只會在 2026 年，而是在接下來兩年，當我們開始鑽探其中一些井時會更清楚。像是墨西哥灣（GoA）的 Daenerys 這類井已出現早期的好跡象。你也讀到 Tupinambá 的消息，當然 BP 是營運方。我們也對納米比亞即將進行的鑽井感到興奮，這些將延續今年較早時的成功。所以整體區域的動能都很好。

On energy security, I would say, clearly it has taken the priority in thinking across all the governments that I have the opportunity to meet. And energy security can sort of be seen as almost divorced from low carbon or divorced from affordability. It's all a package that comes together.

在能源安全方面，我會說，很明顯它已成為我有機會會面的各國政府思考中的優先事項。而能源安全有時看起來幾乎像是與低碳、或與可負擔性脫鉤。但其實這些是一整套相互結合的議題。

What we are seeing is that given our footprint, in particular our downstream presence, we have engagements with multiple countries. And what we are seeing is our trading and supply and the infrastructure that we have -- storage facilities, pipelines, our very strong position in shipping -- has meant that we are a natural player that they come to for thought leadership, for partnership, and where the opportunities arise for investment in their countries.

我們看到的是，鑑於我們的布局，特別是我們在下游的存在，我們與多個國家都有互動。而我們所看到的是，我們的交易與供應能力，以及我們擁有的基礎設施——儲存設施、管線、以及我們在航運方面非常強勢的地位——意味著我們是他們會自然尋求的參與者，來獲取思想領導（thought leadership）、建立夥伴關係，並在出現機會時在其國家進行投資。

And so we're trying to keep an eye on what that new energy system world order is going to look like and how we will play in it. But what is absolutely clear to me is that the integrated strength of Shell will come to the fore in times like this.

因此，我們正努力關注新的能源系統世界秩序會長成什麼樣子，以及我們將如何在其中扮演角色。但對我而言非常清楚的是，在這樣的時刻，Shell 的整合式優勢將會凸顯出來。

Thanks for the questions, Lydia. Matt, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你的提問，Lydia。Matt，請進行下一個問題。

Lucas Hermann, BNP Paribas.

Lucas Hermann，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Yeah, thanks very much. Wael, Sinead, good afternoon, and obviously super quarter operations and cash flow, so congrats. Two questions, if I might.

是的，非常感謝。Wael、Sinead，午安；顯然本季營運與現金流表現非常出色，恭喜。如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

Firstly, on distributions, Wael, on the Q1 call, you talked about being disciplined enough not to adopt a pro-cyclical approach to buybacks. Oil was trading $115, the share price was around 3,400p. And Sinead, you made reference to dynamic allocation and suggested that the share price, whilst undervalued, was no longer egregiously so. And that was a level some 20% below where we are today.

第一個，關於股東回饋（distributions）。Wael，在第一季電話會議上，你談到要有紀律，不採取順週期（pro-cyclical）的庫藏股回購作法。當時油價在 115 美元交易，股價約 3,400 便士。而 Sinead，你提到動態配置（dynamic allocation），並表示股價雖然被低估，但已不再是明顯過度低估。而那個水準大約比我們今天的位置低 20%。

Of course, at the same time, you've long stated that you've got this 40% to 50% distribution, which you see as sacrosanct, albeit we've qualified that with the across-the-cycle comment. And I can see that the balance sheet improvement the past several months has been substantial.

當然，同時你們長期以來也表示有 40% 到 50% 的回饋比例，你們視之為不可侵犯（sacrosanct），儘管我們也用「跨景氣循環（across-the-cycle）」的說法做了限定。而我也看得出來，過去幾個月資產負債表的改善相當顯著。

But forgive me, whilst I'm not criticizing your generosity, I'm just struggling to understand today's announcement on buyback or at least how you think about the conflicting aspects of your statements. So how do you square the circle with putting to balance sheet and awaiting better value opportunities, be they your own equity or other investment opportunities, not have been a more appropriate value decision?

但請原諒我，雖然我不是在批評你們的慷慨，我只是很難理解今天關於回購的宣布，或者至少很難理解你們如何看待你們陳述中彼此衝突的部分。所以，你們如何在「優先強化資產負債表並等待更好的價值機會——不論是自家股票或其他投資機會」與目前的決定之間取得一致？那樣是否會是更合適的價值決策？

Sorry to carry on. But as to the balance, as the balance sheet becomes more fortress-like and your confidence in the business and durability of cash flow build, is it not time that you reallocated between the variable and fixed components of your distributions? I presume that must have been an important part of any debate that the Board will have had in yesterday's discussions.

抱歉我繼續追問。但就平衡而言，隨著資產負債表愈來愈像堡壘（fortress-like），以及你們對業務與現金流韌性的信心提升，是否到了應該在回饋的「可變」與「固定」組成之間重新配置的時候？我想這一定是董事會在昨天討論中辯論的重要部分。

And relative to peer, your return policy continues to appear to be overly weighted towards an inherently pro-cyclical, I think Chris would say, sugar rush component, i.e., the buyback. Sorry, not a criticism, but just trying to understand.

而且相較同業，你們的回報政策看起來仍然過度偏向一個本質上順週期的——我想 Chris 會說——「糖分衝刺（sugar rush）」組成，也就是回購。抱歉，這不是批評，只是想理解。

That's great questions, Lucas. Thank you very much for framing it that way. Let me maybe just provide a bit of a frame, but then I'm going to ask Sinead to really sort of tackle the heart of your question, which is what is the thinking process to get to the $5 billion, but more broadly, how do we use that thinking process as we go forward.

這些問題很棒，Lucas。非常感謝你用這樣的方式來鋪陳。我先提供一個框架，然後我會請 Sinead 來真正回應你問題的核心：也就是形成 50 億美元回購決定的思考過程，以及更廣泛地說，我們未來如何運用這套思考流程。

I'd start off by saying, if you'd asked me six months ago, would I have thought that oil prices were going to be where they are today, no. I'll be honest with you. I personally thought we were at a high there and we were essentially looking at what was going to be a temporal spike. We're now seeing more and more structural stability in that higher oil price simply because we are seeing that inventory levels are being drawn down very quickly. And it's going to take quite some time to be able to refill that inventory, not to mention new inventory that countries will want to have for energy security purposes.

我先說，如果你六個月前問我，我是否會認為油價會在今天這個水準，不會。我對你坦白。我個人當時認為那是一個高點，我們基本上是在看一個短暫的尖峰。而現在我們看到較高油價出現愈來愈多的結構性穩定，原因很單純：我們看到庫存水準正在非常快速地被消耗。而要把庫存補回來需要相當長的時間，更不用說各國出於能源安全目的還會希望持有新增的庫存。

I think importantly, when I talk about avoiding being pro-cyclical, it's at these high points in the cycle, not being at the top end of the range or above that. You'll recall six months ago, we were at 50% plus of that range, of the CFFO range, and what we did at that time was to move into the 40% to 50% range. We're not trying to predict what our share price is. And it's important to recognize, to Lydia's earlier point, we've been investing to fundamentally improve the intrinsic value of this company through projects like LNG Canada, through projects or investments like ARC. So the value of the company is growing.

我認為很重要的是，當我談到避免順週期操作時，指的是在景氣循環的高點，不要處於區間的上緣或甚至高於上緣。你會記得六個月前，我們在該區間（CFFO 區間）的 50% 以上；當時我們所做的是把它調整到 40% 到 50% 的區間內。我們並不是在試圖預測我們的股價會怎麼走。而且很重要的是要呼應 Lydia 先前的觀點：我們一直在投資，透過像 LNG Canada 這樣的專案、以及像 ARC 這樣的專案或投資，從根本上提升這家公司的內在價值。因此公司的價值正在成長。

But how we chose the $5 billion and that broader thinking, maybe Sinead, you want to share your thoughts.

但我們如何選定 50 億美元以及背後更廣泛的思考，也許 Sinead 你想分享一下你的看法。

Thank you, Wael, indeed. And as we've said a number of times, and Lucas, you put it very clearly, the fact that we say 40% to 50% of distributions are CFFO distributed through the cycle and that through the cycle has been key, so thanks for giving me the opportunity to just unpack that a little bit.

謝謝你，Wael，確實如此。正如我們多次提到的，而且 Lucas 你也講得很清楚：我們說在整個循環中，分配金額為 CFFO 的 40% 到 50%，而「貫穿整個循環」這一點一直是關鍵；所以謝謝你給我機會把這部分再拆解說明一下。

Probably good for me to talk about actually, as you say, Wael, the principles and how we think about it. So I think first and foremost, we've said about 40% to 50% being sacrosanct, but let's look at it in terms of the cycle. Really difficult to know how long a cycle is, et cetera. We know it's not in terms of the calendar year. We of course know that it goes across multiple years as well. So let's take the two bookends of that in terms of firstly in the high point of the cycle, and then let's look at the low point of the cycle.

如你所說，Wael，我大概可以談談我們的原則以及我們如何思考。我想首先，我們說 40% 到 50% 這個區間是不可動搖的，但我們要從循環的角度來看。循環到底有多長其實很難判斷等等。我們知道它不是以曆年來衡量。我們當然也知道它會跨越多個年度。所以我們用兩個端點來看：先看循環的高點，再看循環的低點。

So high point of the cycle, what are we looking to do? We're trying to make sure that we have compelling distributions for our shareholders as first and foremost key for us. But at the same time, we're looking to strengthen the balance sheet. That means that we're likely to be towards the lower end of that range, that 40% to 50%, so closer to the 40% like we're doing at this moment in time.

那麼在循環高點，我們想做什麼？我們首先最重視的是，確保為股東提供具吸引力的分配。但同時，我們也希望強化資產負債表。這意味著我們很可能會落在 40% 到 50% 這個區間的較低端，也就是更接近 40%，就像我們目前正在做的。

If you contrast that to the second bookend that I referred to, so at the low point in cycle, still looking for those compelling distributions. But of course, in that point, we're willing and able to lean on the balance sheet, and you've seen us do that. So we tend to be more at the higher end of the range or sometimes over it. You've seen us over the 50% as well.

如果把這與我提到的另一個端點相比，也就是循環低點，我們仍然希望提供具吸引力的分配。但當然在那個時點，我們願意也有能力運用資產負債表來支撐，而你也看過我們這麼做。因此我們往往會更接近區間的高端，有時甚至會超過。你也看過我們超過 50%。

But what's key to us on all of this is, as we've said, 40% to 50% of distribution of CFFO is sacrosanct through the cycle. And therefore, we need to keep pace with it. So that keeping pace with it, Lucas, is absolutely key. And of course, that's what we did this time. If we hadn't, of course, done a $5 billion, we would've been at the $3 billion, so that top of that extra two, we would've been closer to the 30%, et cetera. It's much more of an art than a science, of course, but that keeping pace is very, very key to us.

但對我們而言，這一切的關鍵在於：如我們所說，CFFO 的 40% 到 50% 分配比例在整個循環中是不可動搖的。因此，我們必須跟上這個節奏。所以「跟上節奏」這點，Lucas，絕對是關鍵。而這次我們當然就是這麼做的。如果我們當然沒有做 50 億美元，我們就會是 30 億美元；那麼在多出來的那 20 億的上緣部分，我們就會更接近 30% 等等。這當然更像是一門藝術而非科學，但維持跟上節奏對我們非常、非常重要。

You did the second bit of it and you asked the question on just that how do we split between dividend and buyback. And again, I'll go back to art and science, but what I would say on that is we're of course not cautious about increasing the dividend. I look back over the last 12 months actually, and from that perspective, you see us go up 9% on the dividend as well. So we continue to view our shares as a very good opportunity to buy back, bit linked to that sort of intrinsic value that Wael already talked about earlier.

你也問到了第二部分：我們如何在股利與回購之間做分配。同樣地，我會回到「藝術與科學」的概念；但我想說的是，我們當然不會對提高股利感到保守。回顧過去 12 個月，從這個角度看，你會看到我們股利也提高了 9%。因此我們仍然認為回購自家股票是一個非常好的機會，這也與 Wael 先前提到的那種內在價值概念有些關聯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for that, Sinead, and thank you for the question, Lucas. I think what you've heard is we are trying to be as pragmatic and avoid being dogmatic on this, while recognizing, as Sinead said, this is art more than science. But hopefully, that gives you a perspective of how we think about that frame.

謝謝你，Sinead，也謝謝你的提問，Lucas。我想你聽到的是：我們試圖務實行事，避免在這件事上過於教條；同時也承認，如 Sinead 所說，這更像藝術而非科學。但希望這能讓你了解我們如何看待這個框架。

Matt, let's go to the next question, please.

Matt，請進行下一個問題。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

Michele Della Vigna，高盛。

Thank you, and congratulations on an exceptional quarter. I wanted to ask two questions related to two parts of your business.

謝謝，並恭喜你們交出一個非常出色的季度表現。我想就你們業務的兩個部分各問一個問題。

First, on the trading stuff, I was wondering if you could give us a bit more visibility on your tanker portfolio, how much of that you've got locked in at long-term rates and how much you're paying on spot, given the extraordinary increase in freight rates we've seen in the last few months, and how this is likely to impact your realizations, but also probably on the positive side, your trading business in the fourth quarter.

第一個關於交易業務：我想請問你們是否能就油輪組合提供更多能見度——其中有多少是以長期運價鎖定、又有多少是以即期市場支付——考量到過去幾個月我們看到運費率出現異常大幅上升；以及這可能如何影響你們的實現價格（realizations），同時也可能在正面方面影響你們第四季的交易業務。

And then second, coming back to the exceptional progress towards building resources and growth for the next decade, one country where you've got major resources is Nigeria, Bonga Southwest, Zabazaba, all waiting for FID. I was just wondering how the environment there is progressing and how effectively quickly you're progressing towards an FID there that could continue to contribute to an improved reserve replacement on your side. Thank you.

第二個問題，回到你們在為未來十年建立資源與成長方面的卓越進展：你們擁有重大資源的一個國家是奈及利亞，Bonga Southwest、Zabazaba 等都在等待 FID。我想請問當地環境的進展如何，以及你們在推進當地 FID 方面的速度與效率如何，這將能持續有助於你們提升儲量替代率。謝謝。

Thank you very much for those questions, Michele, and your kind words. I'm going to start with the Nigeria piece and then hand over to Sinead to talk about trading and particularly the freight rates.

非常感謝你的問題，Michele，也謝謝你的好評。我會先談奈及利亞的部分，然後再交給 Sinead 談交易，特別是運費率。

We continue to be very encouraged by what the current Nigerian government is doing to be able to establish a much more stable environment for investment. Technically, Bonga Southwest continues to go well, and I really do hope that by next year, if all the stars align, we should be able to be in a position to choose to take a final investment decision.

我們仍然對目前奈及利亞政府為建立更穩定的投資環境所採取的作為感到非常鼓舞。在技術層面，Bonga Southwest 的進展持續良好；我也真心希望，如果一切條件都配合，到了明年我們應該能處於可以選擇做出最終投資決策的狀態。

You mentioned some of the other ones, Nnwa-Doro, Zabazaba, others are also progressing all at pace. And so far, I have to say I'm encouraged by what I see, both in terms of the quality of the resource, the stability that we're seeing above ground, and the improvement in the fiscals to be able to make these investable projects for the long term.

你提到的其他項目，Nnwa-Doro、Zabazaba 等也都在按計畫推進、進度一致。到目前為止，我必須說我對所見到的情況感到鼓舞：不論是資源品質、地面環境（above ground）所呈現的穩定性，以及財稅條件（fiscals）的改善，使這些專案能成為長期可投資的項目。

And of course, we have long-standing experience in Bonga in Nigeria. We have a very strong organization there. And we would like to be able to continue to leverage that to unlock future opportunities. So positive would be my summary of that, Michele.

當然，我們在奈及利亞的 Bonga 有長期的經驗。我們在當地有非常強的組織。我們也希望能持續運用這些優勢來解鎖未來的機會。所以我的總結會是正面，Michele。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thank you, Michele. And indeed, with respect to the freight market, so certainly in unusual times, let me take you through three different elements of it, if you don't mind. First of all, of course, key is actually having access to vessels at the moment. Second would be in terms of the cost of the freight, and then third would be how does one trade around it. So let me take those three slightly separately.

謝謝你，Michele。確實，關於運費市場，在這樣不尋常的時期，如果你不介意，我想帶大家從三個不同面向來看。首先，當然，關鍵其實是目前能否取得船舶運力。第二是運費成本的水準，第三則是如何在此環境下進行交易操作。我就把這三點稍微分開說明。

In terms of access to them, as you know, we have one of the largest lease portfolios out there in the market. That's very advantageous to us in terms of being able to access vessels when we need them and access freight when we need them. That gives us the ability to move products where we need them to be or LNG or crude, but it gives us a distinct advantage there. So having those really locked in for us is key, which is what you're implying as well.

就取得運力而言，如你所知，我們在市場上擁有規模最大的租賃船隊組合之一。這對我們非常有利，因為在需要時我們能取得船舶，也能在需要時取得運力。這讓我們能把產品運到需要的地方，不論是LNG或原油，都讓我們在這方面具備明顯優勢。因此，對我們而言把這些運力真正鎖定下來是關鍵，這也正是你所暗示的重點。

Second side of things is just cost. If you're into the market at the moment or if you have looking at spot rates, absolutely see costs going up. I don't think that's any surprise. Actually, we were talking about it earlier, just that route between sort of anywhere in the Middle East and China at the moment is some 10 times what it was from even just 12 months ago as well or in 2025, full stop. So you absolutely see that, and you see that starting to come into margins. We even see the pressure on our own side in terms of refining margins as well.

第二個面向就是成本。如果你現在進入市場，或是你在看即期運價，絕對會看到成本上升。我想這並不令人意外。其實我們先前也在談，現在從中東任何地方到中國的那條航線，費用大約是即使僅僅12個月前、或說在2025年時的10倍。所以你確實會看到這點，而且也開始反映到利潤率上。我們自己在煉油利潤率方面也感受到壓力。

And the third side of it is your ability to trade around freight, so that risk management piece of things, whether it's on the risk management side or the trading side of it. We're very prudent in that side of things, but it's been quite advantaged for us. So if I take those three -- access, cost, and risk management -- number one and number three, it's certainly been helping us at this point in time. And of course, cost on anything which is spot is definitely going up and beginning to push down margins, whether it's on the refining side, the chemical side, or even on the oil side as well.

第三個面向是你在運費上進行交易操作的能力，也就是風險管理那一塊，不論是風險管理端或交易端。我們在這方面非常審慎，但也確實讓我們受益不少。所以如果把這三點——取得運力、成本、以及風險管理——放在一起看，第一點和第三點在目前這個時間點確實對我們有所幫助。當然，任何屬於即期的成本都在明顯上升，並開始壓縮利潤率，不論是在煉油端、化工端，甚至油品端也是如此。

I hope that helps.

希望這能有所幫助。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you, Michele, for the questions.

謝謝你，Sinead。也謝謝你，Michele，提出這些問題。

Matt, let's go to the next question, please.

Matt，請進行下一個問題。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. Just the first one on Chemicals. There's been a lot of press around you shopping various Chemicals assets. We sort of know your long-term intentions in Chemicals are clear. My question is more around whether now is the right time to transact.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於化工業務。媒體上有很多報導說你們正在尋求出售各種化工資產。我們大致知道你們在化工的長期意圖很清楚。我的問題更在於，現在是否是進行交易的合適時點。

You obviously don't need to sell anything from a financial or balance sheet point of view. And when I look at Shell historically in the time I've covered it, I would say divestment timing, upstream, refining, and other has not been your strong suit. So maybe you can talk about the trade-offs between waiting and then transacting.

從財務或資產負債表角度來看，你們顯然不需要賣任何東西。而且就我過去覆蓋Shell的經驗來看，我會說你們在資產剝離的時點掌握上——無論是上游、煉油或其他——並不是你們的強項。所以也許你可以談談在等待與立即交易之間的取捨。

And then second, just a very quick one for Sinead on modeling. There's been a material lag in cash tax versus P&L this year. I assume that's just a function of lags and the direction of prices and how fast things can move. But is there anything to suggest that those two don't sort of equalize or normalize into 2027 in a flat macro environment? Thank you.

第二個問題，很快問Sinead關於模型假設。今年現金稅（cash tax）相對於損益表（P&L）的稅費出現了明顯落後。我猜這只是時間差、價格走勢方向，以及變動速度的函數。但在宏觀環境持平的情況下，有沒有任何跡象顯示這兩者在2027年前不會趨於一致或正常化？謝謝。

Biraj, thank you for those. Let me take the first one first and then ask Sinead to address the second one.

Biraj，謝謝你的問題。我先回答第一個，然後請Sinead回應第二個。

On Chemicals, maybe just to step back to the frame that you gave, our ability to be able to transact for value is what fundamentally is what we are trying to drive for, which is why when we talked about the Chemicals portfolio in CMD '25, we talked about 2030 timeline to avoid being in a window that we were looking to transact for the sake of strategic outcomes rather than for value. So while we've been very clear, and I hope both Sinead and I have been transparent throughout both for our own internal organization, of course, as we talk about this, but also externally, that we do not think we are the natural owners of these chemical assets and capabilities, that we will look to potentially find ways, whether it is through capital market transactions or sale of these assets to unlock value.

關於化工，也許先回到你提出的框架：我們的核心目標，是能夠以價值為導向完成交易，這是我們真正想推動的。也因此，當我們在CMD '25談到化工投資組合時，我們提到2030的時間軸，是為了避免落入一個「為了達成策略結果而交易」、而不是「為了價值而交易」的窗口期。所以，雖然我們一直非常清楚——我希望Sinead和我在對內（我們自己的組織）以及對外溝通上都保持透明——我們認為自己並不是這些化工資產與能力的天然持有人；我們會尋求可能的方式，不論是透過資本市場交易或出售這些資產，來釋放價值。

I think implicitly, you rightly said, you are Shell in a very healthy cash position. In my mind, that does not change the strategic context that we have talked about for Chemicals, but it also underlines the point you make, which is if we don't get the right deal we don't transact. We will transact for value.

我想你也隱含地、而且正確地指出：Shell目前現金部位非常健康。在我看來，這不會改變我們先前談到的化工策略脈絡，但也更凸顯你提到的一點：如果拿不到合適的交易條件，我們就不會交易。我們會以價值為前提來交易。

Now, why do I have confidence that things are moving in the right direction? Firstly, our own self-help medicine is working. It's now two quarters of free cash flow positive. Monaca, which is of course the 800-pound asset in that overall mix, has been performing very, very well. We're building track record of performance for that asset. So I think that is a core part of this, and that's why we are taking the time to be able to demonstrate the quality of that asset. Margins have improved compared to where they were over the recent years, and we see more appetite for folks to be able to come in.

那為什麼我有信心事情正朝正確方向發展？第一，我們自身的自助改善措施正在奏效。目前已經連續兩個季度自由現金流轉正。Monaca——當然是整體組合中最重要、最具分量的資產——表現非常、非常好。我們正在為該資產建立績效紀錄。所以我認為這是核心的一部分，也因此我們花時間去證明該資產的品質。相較於近年水準，利潤率已經改善，我們也看到更多潛在買方的興趣。

I think the last piece is the whole reason we kept flexibility in our approach around the transaction is for exactly the point you make. If we cannot find a mid-cycle set of margin conditions between us and the buyers, then the more likely outcome could be something where we combine portfolios, take equity interest in a minority equity interest in something else, and look to be able to ride the wave until we feel it's the right time to be able to monetize the asset.

最後一點，我們之所以在交易方式上保留彈性，正是因為你所說的這個原因。如果我們與買方之間無法就「中周期」的利潤率條件達成一致，那更可能的結果會是：我們把投資組合進行合併，在其他標的中取得少數股權（minority equity interest），並在我們認為適合將資產變現（monetize）的時點到來之前，先順勢而為、乘勢而行。

So we come at this with a value lens first and foremost, and we'll look at what the opportunities in the market. We are in deep discussions. I won't comment on who and what at this stage other than to say we continue to progress those discussions and expect to do so in the coming months.

因此，我們首先、也是最重要地以價值視角來看待這件事，並會觀察市場上的機會。我們正在進行深入討論。現階段我不會評論對象是誰、內容是什麼；只能說我們會持續推進這些討論，並預期在未來幾個月繼續取得進展。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thanks, Biraj. You're spot on in terms of the difference between what we're accruing versus what we're actually paying. So what you're seeing, of course, is Q3 taxes were higher paid than Q2 were, but you've got that rolling through. It's always got a bit of delay on it.

謝謝你，Biraj。你對於我們計提（accruing）的金額與實際支付（paying）的差異判斷得很準。所以你看到的情況是，當然，第三季支付的稅款比第二季高，但這會在後續逐步反映出來。這裡面一向都會有一些時間延遲。

And in particular, of course, you have some phasing where places like Norway do it in typically towards December, et cetera, so you'll see that start to catch up as things go through. But it's just timing of price versus where the actual tax has been paid.

而且特別是，當然，你會看到一些時點上的分期安排，例如挪威通常會在接近12月時進行，因此隨著時間推進，你會看到這部分開始追上來。但這只是價格發生的時間點，與實際稅款已繳納的時間點之間的差異。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Sinead, and thank you, Biraj, for the questions.

謝謝你，Sinead，也謝謝你，Biraj，提出這些問題。

Matt, next caller, please.

Matt，請接下一位來電。

Josh Stone, UBS.

Josh Stone，瑞銀（UBS）。

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon. Two questions, please.

好的，謝謝。下午好。我有兩個問題。

One, coming back to the distributions, it was good to hear your logic earlier about the sort of cycle. I think in the past, you've talked about the consistency of your buyback program being a strength for a number of quarters and you did use the word top-up in your answer earlier. So to what extent is this decision to get $5 billion a sort of catch-up from cash flow you've already received or generated this year versus actually what is a signal for what could be future cash flow or future distributions looking into 2027?

第一個，回到股東分配（distributions）這件事，很高興先前聽到你們對於週期的邏輯。我想過去你們談到過，回購計畫在多個季度保持一致性是一項優勢，而你在剛才的回答中也用了「補足（top-up）」這個詞。所以，這次決定把金額提高到50億美元，在多大程度上是對今年已收到或已產生的現金流做一個「追補（catch-up）」；又在多大程度上其實是在釋放一個訊號，反映未來現金流或未來分配（展望到2027年）可能的走向？

And then second question on refining, very high utilization rates now for several quarters. It's quite impressive considering history. You've talked about greater integration with trading, I think, on the Gulf Coast. Are there some other factors you want to highlight there? And how should we think about implications for refinery maintenance and potentially as you look into 2027 and the turnaround schedule then? Thanks.

第二個問題關於煉油：你們已經連續好幾個季度維持非常高的產能利用率。以歷史來看，這相當令人印象深刻。你們談到過與交易業務更深度的整合，我想是在墨西哥灣沿岸。還有其他因素是你們想強調的嗎？以及我們應該如何看待對煉廠維修保養的影響，並且在展望到2027年及當時的大修（turnaround）排程時，可能會有哪些含意？謝謝。

Good. Well, let me start with refining then and maybe have you, Sinead, address the piece around distributions. Thank you for the questions, Josh.

好的。我先從煉油談起，然後也許請你，Sinead，來回應關於分配的部分。謝謝你的問題，Josh。

On refining, I'll start off by saying we put a challenge to our teams to rise to the occasion a couple of years ago on performance, and they have not disappointed. They have been -- this has been a long time in the works. They've been looking at a few things. First and foremost, how do we run these assets safely, so investing in the infrastructure, making sure that we are doing the maintenance, making sure that even at these high utilization levels, taking out certain units when we have the opportunity to do so, doing the proper maintenance. That's a baseline. That is a baseline in the way we work this.

關於煉油，我先說，我們在幾年前就對團隊提出挑戰，要在績效上迎接更高標準，而他們沒有讓我們失望。這是長期耕耘的成果。他們一直在看幾件事。第一也是最重要的，是如何安全地運行這些資產：因此投資基礎設施、確保我們在做維修保養、並且即使在這麼高的利用率下，也會在有機會時把某些裝置停下來，做適當的維護。這是基本盤。這是我們運作方式的基本盤。

I think secondly, the biggest single change, I think, has been the integration between our assets and our trading. Today, you effectively have our traders sitting in the asset with single-point commercial accountability for the entire value chain from feedstock purchase all the way to product distribution, responding to market signals such as, for example, today, it's more around diesel and kero, maximizing those cuts and looking to optimize margin.

第二點，我認為最大的單一改變，是我們資產與交易之間的整合。今天，你基本上可以看到我們的交易員就坐在資產端，並且對從原料採購一路到產品分銷的整條價值鏈，負起單一窗口的商業責任；同時回應市場訊號，例如以今天來說，更偏向柴油與煤油（kero），就會把這些餾分的產出最大化，並尋求利潤最佳化。

We are now at records in our diesel production. Pernis, for example, in the Netherlands got a record just in August. Scotford in Canada got a record in jet kero production, so really getting the most out of these assets. And importantly, we are leveraging data and AI more so than we have ever done before, trying to anticipate where things are going to go wrong, intervening early, and mobilizing folks more and more into that space.

我們的柴油產量現在創下紀錄。例如荷蘭的Pernis在8月剛創下紀錄。加拿大的Scotford在航空煤油（jet kero）產量上也創下紀錄，確實是把這些資產的效能發揮到極致。而且很重要的是，我們比以往任何時候都更善用數據與AI，嘗試預判哪些地方可能會出問題、提早介入，並且讓更多人力資源投入到這個領域。

When we talk about performance, discipline, simplification, the work that the refining team, the manufacturing team has done, I think, has been stellar. I would say there is a lot more to do. We are not yet at where we need it to be. So there's more to still do. But having 99% utilization year to date, I think, speaks volumes of what the teams are looking at and how they're focusing on this.

當我們談到績效、紀律、簡化時，我認為煉油團隊、製造團隊所做的工作非常出色。我會說還有很多事情要做。我們還沒到達我們需要的水準。所以仍然有更多工作要完成。但年初至今達到99%的利用率，我想充分說明了團隊在看什麼、以及他們如何聚焦在這件事上。

Sinead?

Sinead？

Thanks, Wael. Thanks, Josh. So indeed, so let's take it for this quarter, first of all, and let's explain and unpack some of the thinking around this. Really strong cash generation this quarter and where did that come from? It was probably driven by three things mainly, I would say. So operational performance was very strong, great contribution from our trading colleagues as well, and then thirdly, some just very effective risk management came through. So those three things today drove that beat that we're seeing that's coming through.

謝謝，Wael。謝謝你，Josh。確實如此。我們先以本季度來看，並解釋、拆解一下這背後的一些思考。本季度現金創造非常強勁，那是從哪裡來的？我會說主要可能由三件事驅動。第一，營運表現非常強；第二，我們交易同事也有很大的貢獻；第三，一些非常有效的風險管理也發揮了作用。所以今天看到的這個超預期表現（beat），主要就是由這三件事帶動。

You always hear us say that we look at cash in the quarter and then we look through the quarters, and that's really about looking to the macro and having to look forward. As a result of that, that means you can't be dogmatic, and Wael mentioned this earlier, you have to be quite pragmatic on it.

你們總是聽到我們說，我們會看本季度的現金，同時也會跨季度來看，這其實是要看宏觀環境並且必須前瞻。因此，這代表你不能教條化；Wael先前也提到，你必須相當務實。

So as we think through that, we have to think about keeping pace with that 40% to 50% distribution, which is sacrosanct. And that meant we were very comfortable topping up from $3 billion to the $5 billion. And you spotted my use of the word top-up indeed, and it was thoughtfully given.

所以在這樣思考時，我們必須考量要跟上40%到50%的分配比例，這是不可動搖的。因此，我們非常有信心把金額從30億美元補足（top-up）到50億美元。你也確實注意到我用了「補足（top-up）」這個詞，而這是經過深思熟慮的用字。

So whilst I wouldn't guide towards the fourth quarter in any way, I would say what we're trying to do is to always dampen the effect of the cycle and to give that 40% to 50% to our shareholders with some consistency, and we're building that track record. So when you look back at it and you look at how we've moved our distribution window or returns, we've gone from a 20% to 30% distribution to a 30% to 40% and then to a 40% to 50% distribution.

所以，雖然我不會以任何方式去指引第四季度，但我會說，我們想做的是持續降低週期波動的影響，並以一定的一致性把40%到50%回饋給股東，而我們正在建立這樣的紀錄。因此當你回頭看、看我們如何調整分配區間或回饋水準時，我們已經從20%到30%的分配，提高到30%到40%，再提高到40%到50%。

And actually, when I look over your tenure, well, what we've ended up doing is we've actually averaged 40% to 50%, i.e., in this part throughout that whole period as well. So you can see this consistency here, which gives you a good feel from where we are at the cycle and my earlier frame of what we would do at the top of the cycle and what we would do at the bottom of the cycle, Josh.

而且實際上，當我回顧你任內的期間，我們最終做出來的結果是：我們確實平均落在40%到50%，也就是整段期間都在這個區間內。所以你可以看到這裡的一致性，這也能讓你更好地感受我們在週期中的位置，以及我先前所說在週期高點我們會怎麼做、在週期低點我們會怎麼做，Josh。

So I hope that's helpful.

希望這對你有幫助。

Thanks, Sinead. And I think that point, Josh, around the consistency, I think, Sinead rightly alluding to, we're not saying consistency on absolute number. What we're saying is consistency in the approach and consistency in the philosophy to stay within the 40% to 50%, which means we will keep pace. We will keep pace to be able to stay within that range. And if it means topping up, we will top up above the $3 billion that we had over the last couple of quarters.

謝謝你，Sinead。我想你提到的那點，Josh，關於一致性——正如Sinead剛才正確地暗示——我們說的不是絕對金額的一致性。我們說的是方法的一致性，以及在40%到50%區間內的理念一致性，這意味著我們會跟上節奏。我們會跟上節奏，以便能維持在那個區間內。如果這代表需要補足（top up），那我們就會在過去幾個季度的30億美元之上再補足。

Thank you for the questions. Matt, can we go to the next caller, please?

感謝各位的提問。Matt，我們可以請下一位來電者嗎？

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

Matt Lofting，摩根大通。

Hi, everybody. My congratulations on the strength of the quarter.

各位好。恭喜本季表現強勁。

3Q was another very strong quarter for Integrated Gas despite the impact on Shell's Qatari assets. In the macro conditions of recent months, are you effectively experiencing a degree of natural business hedge insofar as disruption and lost volumes in the Middle East ends up directly contributing to greater market-wide price dislocations and volatility, which the rest of Shell's business is ideally positioned to monetize?

第三季在整合式天然氣業務方面又是非常強勁的一季，儘管Shell在卡達資產受到影響。在近幾個月的總體環境下，你們是否實際上正經歷某種程度的自然業務避險：也就是說，中東地區的干擾與減量，反而直接促成整體市場更大的價格錯位與波動，而Shell其餘業務理想上正好能夠將其變現？

And then second, I'd like to sort of come back to and extend on the comments, Wael, that you made earlier around energy security. In particular, is Shell beginning to see any signs that this year's volatility is stimulating a shift in customer behavior through rising appetite to sign up to long-term energy and LNG contracts, particularly with energy majors like Shell able to supply through diversified portfolios? Thank you.

第二點，我想回到並延伸你先前提到、Wael，關於能源安全的評論。特別是，Shell是否開始看到任何跡象顯示，今年的波動正促使客戶行為轉變，例如更願意簽訂長期能源與LNG合約，尤其是像Shell這樣能透過多元化投資組合供應的能源巨頭？謝謝。

Super. Thanks for that, Matt. Let me start with the second one and if you want to talk about the price dislocations.

很好。謝謝你，Matt。我先從第二個問題開始，如果你想再談談價格錯位的部分。

I would say, too early, Matt, to sort of judge where the thinking that various countries will go to over the coming months, but there are some early bits and pieces we see. I think there is now a premium attributed to diverse sources of supply rather than banking on one supply. And the trade routes to get that supply now are much more into focus. So if you're sitting in Asia looking at what is my diverse basket of suppliers, looking through the trade routes and looking at the names behind that supply is becoming more and more important is what we see at the moment.

我會說，Matt，現在要判斷各國在未來幾個月會把想法帶往哪裡，還太早，但我們確實看到一些早期的零星跡象。我認為，現在市場對供應來源多元化賦予溢價，而不是只依賴單一供應。而取得該供應的貿易路線也更受到關注。所以，如果你在亞洲思考「我的供應商多元組合是什麼」，檢視貿易路線並檢視供應背後的供應者名稱，正變得愈來愈重要，這是我們目前看到的。

I think in addition to that, a recognition that storage, this whole we need to move from just in time to just in case is playing up more and more. People are talking about how do I build alternatives, how do I build more storage capacity, where do I need more pipeline capacity. And countries, I think, more and more are looking to build out their energy infrastructure, recognizing that their energy strategy is underpinning their digital strategy, their national security, it's underpinning their industrial and their economic strategy.

此外，也逐漸認知到儲存的重要性——整體上我們需要從「即時（just in time）」轉向「以備不時之需（just in case）」。大家在討論：我要如何建立替代方案、如何建置更多儲存容量、哪裡需要更多管線運輸能力。而我認為，各國也愈來愈在擴建其能源基礎設施，因為他們認知到能源策略支撐其數位策略、國家安全，也支撐其工業與經濟策略。

So at least in my time in this role, and I would argue in the past decade, I haven't seen as much attention to energy and energy systems as I have seen over the last year or so. That creates an opportunity to have good discussions, I think, around what is sensible and how does one start to navigate the space. And a company like Shell that plays across different energy forms, that has the integrated nature of our business, I think positions us well to be able to have these dialogues.

至少在我擔任這個職務的期間，我甚至可以說在過去十年，我從未像過去一年左右這樣，看到外界對能源與能源系統投入如此多的關注。我認為這創造了機會，能就什麼是合理的、以及如何開始在這個領域中前行，進行良好的討論。而像Shell這樣橫跨不同能源形式、且業務具整合特性的公司，我認為讓我們很適合參與這些對話。

Canada is a super example of that. If you just look at our investments in Canada over just the last few months, how stitching up those different value chains can really create support to a government agenda that is clear in its direction around energy for domestic and for export purposes.

加拿大就是一個很好的例子。如果你只看我們在過去幾個月於加拿大的投資，將不同價值鏈串接起來，確實能為政府在能源（供國內與出口用途）方向明確的施政議程提供支持。

I think they link very closely, Wael, actually. So I mean, where you're going to, Matt, is specifically around how does an integrated company manage to benefit from this sort of environment, and it's exactly as you say, Wael. So what are we seeing? Of course, we continue to see, with what's happening in the Strait, the impact on particularly our Integrated Gas business at the moment. So in terms of both on Pearl and the inability to be able to get product out, but also on some of the LNG there as well, which will play into Q4 as well. So that's not something that is just going away at any point in time.

我認為這些其實密切相關，Wael。所以，Matt，你要問的核心是：一家整合型公司如何在這樣的環境中受益——正如你所說的，Wael。那我們看到了什麼？當然，隨著海峽局勢的發展，我們目前確實看到對整合式天然氣業務的影響，尤其明顯。就Pearl而言，既有對其本身的影響、也有無法把產品運出的問題，另外也影響到部分LNG，這也會延續到第四季。所以這不是短期內就會消失的事情。

On the other side of things, what we are trying to do and what we're really focused on and the teams are being driven to is to ensure that they maximize throughput through all of the assets that we have so we get that length. What is unusual about Shell, of course, is that you have not only a great asset base, but you also have a range of different businesses which are not just specifically dependent on oil price.

另一方面，我們正在做、且真正聚焦並推動團隊去做的，是確保把我們所有資產的處理量（throughput）最大化，讓我們能取得那樣的長度（length）。Shell不尋常之處在於，你不僅擁有很好的資產基礎，同時也有一系列不同的業務，並非只單純依賴油價。

So we have both our mobility business which, of course, will depend on some margins but actually has breadth beyond that. Lubricants, of course, which unfortunately with Pearl done, is being impacted at the moment, but typically would be able to provide some of that hedge that comes through as well.

因此，我們有移動出行（mobility）業務，當然會受部分利差影響，但其實其廣度不僅止於此。還有潤滑油業務，當然很不幸地，因為Pearl停擺，目前受到影響，但通常也能提供部分隨之而來的避險效果。

But our Upstream business is, as you say earlier, Wael, is actually managing to benefit and get as many volumes out as possible. One of the examples we saw, of course, was when the hurricane came through, the recent one in the Gulf of America, we were able to still produce from a couple of our assets, and that was done through remote production at lower levels. But that's the sort of thinking that is driving our ability to be able to ensure we continue to deliver with that implicit hedge across those businesses.

但我們的上游業務，正如你先前所說，Wael，確實能夠受益，並盡可能把產量釋出。我們看到的一個例子是，當颶風來襲——最近那次在美洲灣（Gulf of America）——我們仍能從其中幾個資產持續生產，這是透過遠端操作、以較低水準進行生產來達成。而這種思維正驅動我們的能力，確保我們能持續交付，並在各業務之間形成那種隱含的避險。

And last, but not least, of course, having trading sitting in the middle of it means that we're able to actually focus on what do they need given where the market is. But regardless, yeah, I mean, we'll see it play through in Q4. We'll have hurricanes still coming through. We won't have Pearl up and running yet as we've just talked about. It's really into Q1. So there will be some headwinds as well as the benefits that are truly integrated with business.

最後但同樣重要的是，交易（trading）位於其中，意味著我們能夠實際聚焦在：在目前市場狀況下，他們需要什麼。但無論如何，是的，我們會看到這些在第四季反映出來。颶風仍可能持續來襲。而Pearl也尚未恢復運轉，正如我們剛才談到的。真正要到第一季。因此，除了整合型業務帶來的好處之外，也會有一些逆風。

And let me maybe just -- I know you didn't ask this question, Matt, but just building off Sinead's point, and I think you intimated it in your question. So on Qatar, what's important to recognize is we're starting to see, on the Pearl GTL side, we have partially restarted one of the trains. Don't expect much in terms of cash flow earnings at this stage. We're filling up the inventory there.

另外我或許補充一下——我知道你沒有問這個問題，Matt，但延續Sinead的觀點，我想你在問題中也有所暗示。就卡達而言，重要的是要認知到：在Pearl GTL方面，我們已經部分重啟其中一列裝置（train）。現階段不要期待在現金流或獲利上有太多貢獻。我們正在把那邊的庫存補起來。

And to your point, Sinead, one of the remarkable things that the team has shown is they've been able to build essentially a land bridge across multiple countries to transport base oil that is the feedstock of our Lubricants business, the differentiated lubes that we have, and to be able to still continue to keep our customers satisfied through that. But that's an example of the resilience that the team has shown.

而呼應你的觀點，Sinead，團隊展現的一個了不起之處是：他們基本上在多個國家之間建立了一條「陸上橋梁」，用以運輸作為我們潤滑油業務原料的基礎油（base oil），也就是我們差異化潤滑油產品的原料，並因此仍能持續讓客戶滿意。但這就是團隊所展現韌性的例子。

The second train that was impacted is continuing to be on track to be ready for start-up. Of course, subject to the Strait of Hormuz opening and our ability to evacuate product, that's still planned for late in Q1. And so progress there, under very difficult conditions, of course.

第二列受影響的裝置仍按計畫推進，準備啟動。當然，仍取決於荷姆茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz）是否開放，以及我們是否能將產品運出；目前仍規劃在第一季末。也就是說，在非常艱難的條件下，相關進展仍在推進。

Thank you. If I can go to the other Matt now and ask for the next caller, please.

謝謝。如果可以的話，我現在請另一位 Matt 接手，請他安排下一位提問者。

Fergus Neve, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Fergus Neve，Rothschild & Co Redburn。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you very much for taking my questions. Just a couple, please, if I might.

各位下午好，也非常感謝讓我提問。如果可以的話，我只有兩個問題。

Firstly, with the ARC transaction now closed, what operating and cash flow milestones will you be looking to over the next year or so to demonstrate that the acquisition is delivering on the returns you outlined on announcement? And how much additional value do you see LNG Canada Phase 2 unlocking beyond the original kind of guidance given now that FID has been taken?

第一，ARC 交易現在已完成，未來一年左右你們會關注哪些營運與現金流里程碑，以證明這項收購正在實現你們在公告時所述的回報？另外，既然已做出 FID，你們認為 LNG Canada 第二期相較於原先提供的指引，還能額外釋放多少價值？

And then secondly, a quicker question. Could you just comment on the refining margins that you are seeing quarter to date and how the indicator has been performing? Thanks.

第二個是比較快的問題。你們能否評論一下本季迄今所看到的煉油利差，以及指標表現如何？謝謝。

Sinead, you led the ARC transaction. Do you want to say a few words and maybe also cover the refining margins?

Sinead，你主導了 ARC 交易。你要不要說幾句，並且也一併談談煉油利差？

Absolutely. With respect to ARC, what are we seeing, it's one month into the portfolio. So what have we seen so far, we've seen great talent coming through. Really fascinating to be able to take such talented individuals and put them with our teams as well to be able to understand not only what we can deliver from ARC, but also what we can deliver from some of our own assets up in Canada as well and be able to take the learnings from both sides.

當然。就 ARC 而言，我們看到的是——這才是納入投資組合後的第一個月。到目前為止我們看到了什麼？我們看到非常優秀的人才加入。能把這些非常有才華的同仁與我們的團隊結合，確實很令人振奮，讓我們不僅能理解 ARC 能帶來什麼，也能理解我們在加拿大的一些自有資產能帶來什麼，並且能把雙方的學習成果相互借鏡。

So very early days on that one, Fergus, as we work through, but holding the team to account to be able to deliver on exactly what we had premised as we went through. Looking forward to being able to give you a bit of an update in terms of that probably in Capital Markets Update or probably middle of the year, but we'll make sure we go into some detail there as well.

所以這還非常早期，Fergus，我們仍在推進中；但我們會要求團隊對照我們當初的假設，確實交付成果。我期待能在資本市場更新（Capital Markets Update）或大概年中時，向你提供一些進度更新；我們也會確保在那裡做更深入的說明。

You also asked about LNG Canada Phase 2. Of course, FID just recent, so really pleased on how we were able to get to that with all of the partners. Of course, a very different scenario where we were able to see much more competitive pricing from the contractors. And much more comfort because this is not a new plant that has been built. All of the facilities, et cetera, are there. This is about an add-on to something that is already there. And that makes it quite exciting to see how much we could actually return from that. Of course, the 6 million tonnes, et cetera, really good options to be able to push forward at the right time when it comes through, but let's start to build on that.

你也問到 LNG Canada 第二期。當然，FID 才剛做出，所以我們很高興能與所有合作夥伴一起走到這一步。而且情境非常不同，我們看到承包商給出的價格更具競爭力。同時也更有把握，因為這不是一座全新建造的工廠。所有設施等等都已經在那裡。這是對既有項目的擴建。因此，看到它實際上可能帶來多少回報，令人相當興奮。當然，6 百萬噸等等，在適當時機推進時都是很好的選項，但我們先把基礎打好、逐步建構。

Your second point, of course, was around refining margins and how are those performing. So what we did see in terms of October and in terms of the integrated refining margin, we saw come down a little bit relative to where it was for Q3. We do believe we could see lower realized numbers coming through this quarter, given the freight rates, which was one of the questions, of course, earlier that came through as well. So that will start to play out. But again, early days just into the quarter, and looking forward to, per my answer earlier from the team, the ability to be able to maximize value from freight on our side.

第二點當然是關於煉油利差以及表現如何。就 10 月以及綜合煉油利差而言，我們確實看到相較於第三季略有下滑。我們認為本季可能會出現較低的實現數字，原因在於運費率——這也是先前提到的一個問題。所以這會逐步反映出來。但同樣地，這才剛進入本季初期；如同我先前代表團隊的回答，我們期待能在我們這一端把運費相關的價值最大化。

And it's fair to say we'll give a bit more detail on ARC. I think part of your question, Fergus, was almost what's the upside to LNG Canada Phase 2 FID. We didn't bang that into our premise, into our thesis for the ARC acquisition. That will be upside, but we'll talk more about ARC value and the like when we get to Capital Markets Update, so let's hold that until February.

也可以說，我們會就 ARC 提供更多細節。我想你問題的一部分，Fergus，幾乎是在問 LNG Canada 第二期做出 FID 的上行空間。我們並沒有把這點納入 ARC 收購的前提或投資論點中。那會是額外的上行，但我們會在資本市場更新時再更深入談 ARC 的價值等內容，所以先留到二月再說。

Matt, let's go to the next question, please.

Matt，請進行下一個問題。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

Thank you. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody.

謝謝。各位早安、午安。

Wael, there's been a lot of portfolio changes, quite remarkable actually the progress you've made, but there's also quite a lot of speculation about future portfolio changes. I wonder if you could speak to a couple of those, specifically Infineum and Chemicals. But more importantly, if there were material proceeds to come in, what's your priority for the use of those proceeds? That's my first question.

Wael，你們的資產組合變動很多，老實說你們取得的進展相當驚人，但市場也對未來可能的組合調整有不少揣測。我想請你談談其中幾項，特別是 Infineum 和化學品業務。但更重要的是，如果未來有可觀的處分收入進來，你對這些資金用途的優先順序是什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

And my quick follow-up is for Sinead. I just wonder, Sinead, if you could speak to the trend in leases. I think at the Capital Markets Day, you had suggested that the pace of lease additions would slow, and obviously it's continued to increase. So any color you can offer there, that'd be great. Thank you.

我接著的快速追問是給 Sinead。Sinead，我想請你談談租約（leases）的趨勢。我記得在資本市場日你曾表示新增租約的速度會放緩，但顯然它仍在持續增加。如果你能提供一些補充說明就太好了。謝謝。

Doug, thank you for that. Let me take the first one, and then Sinead will address the second one.

Doug，謝謝你的問題。我先回答第一個，然後 Sinead 會回答第二個。

Maybe just to step back, so what did we say in Capital Markets Day when we outlined our strategy? We said there are three things we're trying to do. One is we want to sustain liquids. Two is we want to grow our Integrated Gas, in particular, our LNG business. And three, we wanted to continue to lean into this sort of confluence of marketing and trading as we position ourselves for value creation longer term.

或許先退一步回顧：在資本市場日我們闡述策略時說了什麼？我們說有三件事要做。第一，我們要維持液體（liquids）業務。第二，我們要成長整合式天然氣（Integrated Gas），特別是 LNG 業務。第三，我們希望在行銷與交易的匯流趨勢上持續加碼，讓我們在更長期的價值創造上取得有利定位。

And I think to your point, we've made progress across all of these three, whether it's on the sustained liquid and potentially grow liquids as the opportunities come through. ARC, of course, gives you an underlying amount of liquids that's going to really support us for a long, long time to come. We are really focused on competitive recovery of our existing resource base. And again, we'll update you a bit more on how that looks in February.

我想如你所說，我們在這三方面都取得了進展：不論是維持液體業務，並在機會出現時可能擴大液體業務。ARC 當然提供了相當規模的液體基礎，將在很長、很長一段時間內支撐我們。我們非常專注於以具競爭力的方式回收（recovery）既有資源基礎。同樣地，我們會在二月向你更新更多相關進展。

We've touched on the example of Bay du Nord. Michele asked earlier the question around Nigeria. So there's a lot that's coming through, but again, with a focus on value rather than volume here. That is the key thing that I've been saying to my organization. We're not in the business of just adding resource for the sake of it. We want to be able to add resource in areas where we have differentiated skills, where we can really create value because of our knowledge and capabilities, and that are really accretive and in line with our returns expectations.

我們也提到 Bay du Nord 這個例子。Michele 先前問了關於奈及利亞的問題。所以有很多事情正在推進，但同樣地，我們的重點是價值而非產量。這是我一直對組織強調的關鍵。我們不是為了增加而增加資源。我們希望在我們具備差異化能力的領域增加資源，能憑藉我們的知識與能力真正創造價值，並且能增厚（accretive）且符合我們對回報的期待。

Then if I move to Integrated Gas, we've talked about LNG Canada Phase 2 and our ability to grow through that. ARC, of course, underpins it. That's before we get NFE and NFS in Qatar, before we get Nigeria Train 7. So that business continues to go from strength to strength. And most importantly, we continue to add dimensions for our trading and optimization teams to be able to maximize value from.

接著談整合式天然氣，我們已談到 LNG Canada 第二期以及我們透過它成長的能力。ARC 當然也提供支撐。這還不包括卡達的 NFE 與 NFS，也還不包括奈及利亞第 7 列（Train 7）。因此，這項業務持續愈來愈強。而且最重要的是，我們持續為交易與最佳化團隊增加更多面向，讓他們能夠把價值最大化。

And Tri Star is a great example of what we talked about on the marketing trading side, and these are areas where we will look to continue to grow. And so we are just executing the strategy that we said, but we're just beginning that execution as we've now really driven the performance that, I think, is an underpinning for any portfolio moves that anyone needs to make. Otherwise, why would we be the natural owner of some of these resources?

而 Tri Star 正是我們在行銷交易端所談到內容的一個很好的例子，這些也是我們將持續尋求成長的領域。因此，我們只是在執行我們所說的策略，但我們才剛開始推動這項執行，因為我們現在確實已經帶動了績效表現，而我認為這是任何人要進行投資組合調整時所需要的基礎支撐。否則，為什麼我們會是這些資源的天然擁有者呢？

On Infineum and Chemicals, of course, I won't talk to media speculation and the like, but it goes back to the earlier question. At the heart of it, we think Chemicals is a business that is great for others, but we are not the natural owners. So the different elements of our portfolio that sit within the chemicals space, we will look to either sell or do these capital market transactions around.

至於 Infineum 與化學品業務，當然，我不會回應媒體揣測之類的內容，但這會回到先前的問題。核心在於，我們認為化學品對其他人而言是一門很好的生意，但我們並不是最適合的天然擁有者。因此，對於我們投資組合中位於化學品領域的不同要素，我們將考慮要麼出售，要麼圍繞其進行資本市場交易。

When it comes to what do we do with the proceeds, I won't speculate at this stage. What I will say is just reinforce what Sinead talked about. 40% to 50% through the cycle, and that's through the commodity cycle, not the calendar cycle, is sacrosanct for us. We will always aim to keep pace, and you have seen us top up when we feel that we are starting to sort of fall below the 40%.

至於處分所得要如何運用，我在此階段不作揣測。我想說的是，再次強調 Sinead 所談到的。穿越週期維持 40% 到 50%——而且是商品週期，不是曆法週期——對我們而言是不可動搖的原則。我們會一直以此為目標，你也看到當我們覺得開始低於 40% 時，我們會再補上來。

We are not structurally going to accept to be at the 30%s. We want to move through that cycle into the 40% plus into the 40% to 50% range, and as Sinead said, ideally be at the top end of that cycle in softer elements of the commodity cycle and towards the bottom end at high points as we see right now. And the proceeds from these investments or other divestments will come onto the balance sheet and we will then make sure that we are allocating them accordingly.

我們不會在結構上接受落在 30% 的水準。我們希望沿著週期推進到 40% 以上、進入 40% 到 50% 的區間；正如 Sinead 所說，理想狀態是在商品週期較疲弱的階段處於區間上緣，而在像我們目前所見的高點階段則更接近區間下緣。而這些投資或其他資產處分的所得將進入資產負債表，之後我們會確保依照原則妥善配置。

Maybe the last point I will make, because I recognize our cash generation has meant that we can strongly deleverage, that we can continue to invest in our business as we've announced some of the investments that we have made and continue to distribute to our shareholders. But we're not done. We still have a lot we think we can unlock from this business, and we will continue to do that.

也許我最後想補充的一點是，我知道我們的現金創造能力意味著我們可以大幅去槓桿，同時也能持續投資於我們的業務——正如我們已宣布的一些投資——並且持續回饋股東。但我們還沒做完。我們仍然認為這個業務還有很多價值可以釋放，我們會持續去做。

But we will be disciplined. We're not constrained. I think everyone recognizes that, but we will be disciplined. We will not allow the surplus cash to burn a hole through our pockets. That is the flaw that we have seen historically in our sector, in our company. And this time, we have learned our lesson and we will really be very methodical in making sure that we will make those investments in areas where we see risk-adjusted returns that are acceptable to us because we will keep high-grading our capital allocation to make sure we create value long term.

但我們會保持紀律。我們並不受限。我想大家都認同這點，但我們會保持紀律。我們不會讓多餘現金在口袋裡燒出一個洞。這正是我們在本產業、在我們公司歷史上看到的缺陷。而這一次，我們已經吸取教訓，會非常有條不紊地確保只在我們看到風險調整後報酬可接受的領域進行投資，因為我們會持續提高資本配置的品質，以確保長期創造價值。

Sinead?

Sinead？

On this one -- on the leases, Doug, you know how we use leases. So leases for us are very much by creating value. They tend to be typically in FPSOs linked to our freight, some movement of product, whether that's on vessels or whether that's rail cars, et cetera, and some around convenience sites. Those tend to be where the leases sit.

就這一題——關於租賃，Doug，你知道我們如何使用租賃。所以對我們而言，租賃主要是用來創造價值。它們通常出現在與我們運輸相關的 FPSO 上、一些產品移動（不論是船舶或鐵路車廂等），以及部分便利站點相關項目。租賃大多集中在這些地方。

So per your point, why have they gone up versus what we said in Capital Markets Day? Two things really. Number one, ARC wasn't in the numbers at that time, so that's about an acquisition that came on the books. Very happy to have those leases. Great ability to be able to transport those volumes where they need to be and extract value.

所以就你提到的，為什麼它們相較於我們在資本市場日所說的數字上升？主要有兩點。第一，當時的數字沒有包含 ARC，所以這是一本併購案入帳後帶來的影響。我們很高興擁有這些租賃。它讓我們能把這些量運到需要去的地方，並從中提取價值，能力很強。

And secondly, it's a non-cash item on the other one, which is linked to freight, which is really, with where the market is going, it's just the accounting treatment of those. So it brings it up this quarter in particular, non-cash. If the Strait and when the Strait begin to stabilize, we would expect it to ebb and flow with that as well. I'll keep it there.

第二點，另一部分是與運費相關的非現金項目；就市場走向而言，這主要只是會計處理方式所致。因此特別在本季把數字拉高，而且是非現金。如果海峽局勢以及當海峽開始趨於穩定，我們預期它也會隨之起伏變動。我就先說到這裡。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝你，Doug。

Thank you, Sinead. Doug, thank you very much for those questions.

謝謝你，Sinead。Doug，非常感謝你的提問。

Matt, can we go to the next caller, please?

Matt，請幫我們接下一位來電者，好嗎？

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Martijn Rats。

Yeah, hi. Hello. Maybe I can just ask two smaller modeling questions just to sort of take them off.

是的，你好。你好。我想我可以問兩個比較小的建模問題，把它們先釐清。

I wanted to follow-up slightly on Doug's question about the leases. Because this quarter, there was a big boost in leases from escalating freight rate. That makes a lot sense. If you sign contracts that have a sort of variable component that scale with freight, then of course, the present value of all future freight payments is higher and thus capitalized on the balance sheet. But I was wondering about that because the number in billions is reasonably material.

我想稍微追問一下 Doug 關於租賃的問題。因為這一季租賃因運費上升而大幅增加。這很合理。如果你簽的合約有某種會隨運費變動的浮動成分，那麼未來所有運費付款的現值當然會更高，因此會在資產負債表上資本化。但我之所以想問，是因為以十億計的數字相當可觀。

I was wondering whether when you do these calculations, is that a matter of to say, well, freight rates are up and we now assume that for the remaining duration of the lease, the rates will stay where they currently are because that is the rate that's in front of us and that's what we assume? Or a lot of freight rates also have forward curves and these forward curves are heavily backward dated that will tell you that the market expects the freight rates to come down? Is the extra amount that is now capitalized in leases assuming a sort of shorter spike in freight rates and takes into account that these forward freight rates are so heavily backward dated already?

我想知道你們在做這些計算時，是不是等同於說：運費上升了，我們就假設在租賃剩餘期間內，費率會維持在目前水準，因為這是眼前看到的費率、也是我們的假設？還是說，很多運費其實也有遠期曲線，而這些曲線呈現很強的逆價差（backwardation），顯示市場預期運費會下滑？目前在租賃中被額外資本化的金額，是否假設運費只是短期尖峰，並且已把這些遠期運費曲線已高度逆價差的情況納入考量？

Of course, the reason why this is important is that these rates do not come down. We could still see the same sort of upwards provisions to these leases sort of in the future, depending on the calculation. So I hope I made my point clearly, but it's a little difficult to explain. But you probably see what I mean. I was hoping you could address that.

當然，這之所以重要，是因為如果這些費率沒有下來，那麼依計算方式不同，我們未來可能仍會看到同樣類型的租賃向上調整。所以我希望我把重點講清楚了，但這有點難解釋。不過你們應該明白我的意思。我希望你們可以回應一下。

And the other one I also wanted to ask is about this sort of $3.4 billion derivative inflow, when that reverses, if it reverses. If you can give a bit more color on that.

另外我也想問的是，這個約 34 億美元的衍生性商品流入，之後會如何回轉（如果會回轉的話）。如果你們能提供更多說明就太好了。

Super. Thanks for that, Martijn.

很好。謝謝你，Martijn。

Martijn, I could go on a very long rant about accounting and how we have to handle it around IFRS. You're spot on. Just the way it gets accounted for is the fact that we actually have to use the spot rate as an indicative of where it goes to through the life or the tenure of the leases, which is something that I think it's not just us. You've seen some of the trading houses object to this and make comments on it as well. Deeply frustrating.

Martijn，我可以就會計以及我們在 IFRS 下必須如何處理這件事講很長一段。你說得完全沒錯。會計入帳方式就是：我們實際上必須使用即期費率作為租賃整個存續期間或年限走勢的指標，這點我認為不只是我們如此。你也看到一些貿易商對此提出異議並發表評論。非常令人沮喪。

But per your point, does it mean it goes up and down? Yes, it does. That's why you heard me say to Doug in particular, this is about the accounting treatment of it, not the economic value of it, so two very different things. And of course, given that we have quite a large freight book, you can imagine that we use risk management and different things like that. So this is the accounting side of it. But you're spot on, and I hear your frustration and I echo it is what I would say.

但就你提到的重點而言，這是否表示它會上上下下？是的，會。這就是為什麼你聽到我特別對Doug說，這關乎的是它的會計處理方式，而不是它的經濟價值，所以是兩件非常不同的事。當然，鑑於我們有相當龐大的運費部位，你可以想像我們會運用風險管理以及諸如此類的不同工具。所以這是會計面的影響。但你說得完全正確，我也聽到你的挫折感；我想說的是，我也有同感。

Your second one is on $3.4 billion of inflow. And specifically, that's around derivatives, as you said, coming through. What I would say on that is a number of elements in there, but you heard me allude to the fact earlier that there were three things that I was really pleased with in terms of the cash generation. One was around the operational performance of the company. Secondly, it was higher -- our trading business had or trading segment business had performed, and the third one was around effective risk management.

你的第二個問題是關於34億美元的流入。而具體來說，正如你所說，這主要是衍生性商品所帶來的。我想說的是，裡面包含若干因素；但你先前也聽到我提到，就現金創造而言，有三件事讓我非常滿意。第一是公司營運表現。第二是更高的——我們的交易業務或交易部門的表現更好；第三則是有效的風險管理。

So that comes down to the effective risk management, and that's what you're seeing on the derivatives coming through. Will there be ebbs and flows in it? Absolutely. We do have margining moves, but I would say the way we do risk management means it is something that's normal course of business for us. So you tend to see that come through, which is why I didn't call it out specifically.

所以這歸結到有效的風險管理，而你在衍生性商品流入上看到的就是這一點。它會不會有起起落落？當然會。我們確實會有保證金調整的變動，但我會說，我們的風險管理方式意味著，這對我們而言屬於正常業務的一部分。所以你往往會看到這些反映出來，這也是為什麼我沒有特別點名說明。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead, and thank you, Martijn.

謝謝你，Sinead，也謝謝你，Martijn。

Matt, let's go to the next caller, please.

Matt，請接下一位來電。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的Christopher Kuplent。

Thank you very much. Well, I've got one question on M&A. You were telling us not so long ago that you're spending an increasing amount of time on what's coming through your desk. What are your senses telling you right now? Obviously, during these kind of volatile commodity price periods, it's very hard to find deals. You managed to do that earlier this year. So are you still confident that this is a good time to transact, or are you telling your team what -- there's always time?

非常感謝。我有一個關於併購（M&A）的问题。不久前你們才告訴我們，你花在檯面上案源的時間越來越多。你現在的直覺是什麼？顯然，在這種大宗商品價格波動的時期，要找到交易非常困難。你們今年稍早成功做成了一筆。所以你們仍然有信心認為現在是進行交易的好時機嗎？還是你在跟團隊說——其實任何時候都可以？

And second question or I just wanted to give you a bit of an opportunity with the benefit of hindsight, we're all smarter to sort of review what you've learned from the trimming of the buyback back in April relative to the top-up right now. Thank you.

第二個問題，或者說我想給你一個機會，事後回頭看——我們都會變得更聰明一些——來檢視你們在4月縮減回購，相較於現在再加碼（top-up），從中學到了什麼。謝謝。

Thank you, Christopher. A couple of good questions, let me address those maybe on the M&A side.

謝謝你，Christopher。兩個都很好的問題，我先從併購（M&A）面向來回答。

What I'm particularly pleased, and I've said this before and I'll reiterate now, is the teams are looking to continue to drive value from our existing portfolio first and foremost and focus on the areas where we have competitive strength. That means that M&A is nice if it comes. And recognizing we hold ourselves to a very high bar, even if we look at 100 of these companies, it's very rare to get even one of them sort of screening through, and indeed, ARC met that high bar.

我特別滿意的是——我之前也說過，現在再重申一次——團隊首先著眼於持續從我們既有投資組合中創造價值，並聚焦在我們具備競爭優勢的領域。這表示如果有併購機會當然很好。而且我們對自己設定了非常高的門檻；即便我們看了100家公司，也很少能有哪怕一家通過初步篩選；而ARC確實達到了那個高門檻。

If I'm honest with you, I don't see an obvious target at the moment that's meeting that high bar. We, of course, will always look, by the way, and I'll never say to my team, stop looking because I think part of our job is to make sure we are creating various alternatives. What's the opportunity cost of every single dollar of capital we're spending, whether it's an exploration, whether it's in a negotiated deal, organic opportunities, M&A, to keep us on our toes and make sure that we are allocating capital to that best risk-adjusted return opportunity that's out there.

坦白說，我目前看不到有明顯的標的能達到那個高門檻。當然，我們永遠都會持續看；順帶一提，我也不會對團隊說停止尋找，因為我認為我們工作的一部分，就是確保我們在創造各種替代方案。我們花出去的每一美元資本，其機會成本是什麼——不論是勘探、協商交易、有機成長機會、或併購——都要讓我們保持警覺，並確保我們把資本配置到市場上風險調整後報酬最佳的機會。

So we will keep looking. Nothing that's particularly, I'd say, exciting. But who knows? Opportunities will emerge in these locations. As I said earlier, we will be -- we are not constrained, but we will be very disciplined in that regard.

所以我們會持續尋找。目前沒有什麼特別——我會說——令人興奮的。但誰知道呢？機會會在這些地區浮現。如我先前所說，我們——我們並非受限，但在這方面會非常自律。

On the -- sorry. Please, of course, yes.

關於——抱歉。請說，當然，可以。

I think you answered it earlier as well. Very happy to.

我想你剛才也回答到了。非常樂意。

Christopher, I think it's crystal balls in hindsight. I don't think there's many things we would look at and consider with a different viewpoint. We've been doing this for some time, and you can't always time it perfectly I think is what you were referring to earlier as well. I think our view at the time was trying to understand how long the disruption in the Middle East was going to last. And I think it's fair to say it's a difficult one to bet on or to decide when it would come through.

Christopher，我想事後回頭看就像拿水晶球一樣。我不認為有太多事情我們會用不同的角度再看一次。我們做這件事已經有一段時間了，而你不可能每次都完美踩點；我想這也是你先前提到的。我們當時的看法是，試著判斷中東的擾動會持續多久。而我想可以說，這很難下注或判斷它何時會發生變化。

We took the opportunity at that time, of course, to rebalance as well and to be able to look at both the buyback but also to move some towards the dividend at that time as well. As well, you talked about earlier, we keep increasing the intrinsic value of the company, and if we keep doing that, we still see it as a good value to buy. I think, Christopher, you actually raised it last time. I think we've bought back some 30% of the company over the last few years at very good value and we're continuing to do that.

當時我們也把握機會做了再平衡，能同時考量回購，也在那個時間點把一部分轉向股利。另外，如你先前提到的，我們持續提升公司的內在價值；只要我們持續做到這點，我們仍然認為以這個價格回購是很好的價值。我想，Christopher，你其實上次也提過。我想過去幾年我們以非常好的價值回購了大約公司30%的股份，而且我們會繼續這麼做。

So continue to feel that joy of the fact that we view the underappreciation in terms of that turnaround story of this company, in terms of the performance lens that's coming through, the portfolio changes that are coming through, and more importantly how we're strengthening the portfolio to the future. So I'm very much looking forward to sharing that with you at the Capital Markets Update as well. A good opportunity to do it.

所以請繼續享受這份喜悅：我們認為市場仍低估了這家公司的轉型故事——包括正在展現的績效面向、正在發生的投資組合調整，更重要的是我們如何為未來強化投資組合。我也非常期待在資本市場更新（Capital Markets Update）時與你分享這些。那會是一個很好的機會。

Indeed. I think we don't have wisdom around where these prices are going, but what we can do is make sure that we honor the frame that we have set, the 40% to 50%, and we do all we can around the areas that we can control. So those are the fundamentals, Christopher, and hopefully, we can keep demonstrating that with the consistency that this organization has done quarter after quarter.

確實。我想我們並沒有智慧能預測價格會往哪裡走，但我們能做的是確保遵守我們設定的框架，也就是40%到50%，並在我們可控的領域把能做的都做到位。所以這些就是基本面，Christopher；希望我們能持續以這個組織一季又一季所展現的穩定性來證明這一點。

Let's go, Matt, to the next question, please.

Matt，請進行下一個問題。

James West, Melius Research.

Melius Research的James West。

Hi, guys. Thanks for getting me in here towards the end. We've covered a ton of ground today and then the Q&A session. And obviously, there's been a lot of moving parts really, well, since you took over the last three years. But what are the areas that's becoming more interesting and not just -- well, I guess probably because of the changes in government there and the backing of the US government is Venezuela and the gas opportunity in that market. I know you're familiar with the market. You have some exposure. How are you thinking about that opportunity set and how that feeds into your broader global gas strategy?

嗨，各位。謝謝讓我在接近尾聲時加入。今天以及問答環節我們談了很多面向。而且顯然，自從你們在過去三年接手以來，確實有很多變動因素。但有哪些領域正變得更有意思？不只是——嗯，我想可能是因為那邊政府更迭，以及美國政府的支持——也就是委內瑞拉，以及該市場的天然氣機會。我知道你們熟悉那個市場。你們也有一些曝險。你們如何看待那一組機會，以及它如何融入你們更廣泛的全球天然氣策略？

James, thank you for that question.

James，謝謝你的提問。

I think what we're seeing at the moment, I'll touch on Venezuela in a second, is there are multiple opportunities that are playing up. Maybe sort of finishing the thread that we started with Christopher, M&A is one angle, but there's more and more opportunities for negotiated deals, whether that's potentially in Kuwait, in Libya, in Iraq, or in Venezuela. And that's been exciting to lean into.

我認為我們目前看到的情況——我稍後會談到委內瑞拉——是有多個機會正在浮現。也許延續我們先前與Christopher開始的脈絡，併購（M&A）是一個面向，但也有越來越多透過協商達成交易的機會，無論是在科威特、利比亞、伊拉克，或是在委內瑞拉。而這些都是值得積極投入、令人振奮的。

The question is, what are the ones where we can truly bring value? And in a place like Venezuela, of course, heavy oil is what people talk about. It's not obvious to us how we can add a lot of value in that space. But in the gas value chain, that connectivity between, in particular, offshore Venezuela, where we can put in new assets or not having to inherit legacy gas assets, where we can symbiotically tie those assets into our existing infrastructure on the Trinidad side of the border, where we can leverage the existing capacity in the Atlantic LNG, all of that means we can truly create value out of those unique opportunities from positions of strength.

問題在於：哪些機會是我們真正能帶來價值的？在像委內瑞拉這樣的地方，當然大家談的多是重油。但我們並不清楚在那個領域我們能如何增加很多價值。然而在天然氣價值鏈上，特別是離岸委內瑞拉的連結性——我們可以投入新資產，或是不必承接既有的傳統天然氣資產——並且能以互利共生的方式，將這些資產與我們在邊境另一側、千里達的既有基礎設施相連結，同時運用大西洋LNG（Atlantic LNG）的既有產能；這一切都意味著，我們能從強勢基礎出發，真正把這些獨特機會轉化為價值。

We will look at that. I mean, the ARC into LNG Canada Phase 1 and 2 is another example of that. And our opportunities in Australia to be able to keep our Queensland LNG facilities full are all that. I think we're in a world where continuing to leverage the diverse supply sources we have to be able to meet that growing demand for LNG is going to be key.

我們會評估這些。我的意思是，ARC併入LNG Canada第一期與第二期就是另一個例子。以及我們在澳洲的機會，能讓昆士蘭LNG設施維持滿載，都是同樣的概念。我認為我們正處於一個世界：持續運用我們多元的供應來源，以滿足日益成長的LNG需求，將會是關鍵。

Okay. Matt, let's go to the next question, please.

好的。Matt，請進行下一個問題。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

HSBC的Kim Fustier。

Hi. Good afternoon. I've only got one question left. You've trimmed your 2026 cash CapEx guidance by $1 billion to $23 billion to $25 billion, and that's despite completing ARC and then sanctioning a major project, LNG Canada Phase 2. How much of that reduction came from timing versus real capital efficiencies or lower underlying spend? And then is there any read across of that into the $20 billion to $22 billion annual CapEx framework for '27 and '28, either on the upside or the downside? Thank you.

嗨，午安。我只剩下一個問題。你們將2026年的現金資本支出（CapEx）指引下修了10億美元，至230億到250億美元，儘管你們完成了ARC，並且之後核准了一個重大專案——LNG Canada第二期。這次下修有多少是來自時點差異（timing），又有多少是來自真正的資本效率提升或基礎支出降低？另外，這是否能對2027與2028年每年200億到220億美元的CapEx框架提供任何參考——不論是上行或下行？謝謝。

Thanks, Kim. I can be relatively short on this one actually. So indeed, we brought it down by roughly $1 billion. A large part of that is really timing and phasing with a few efficiencies built in. So it's a bit of a blend in there.

謝謝，Kim。這題我其實可以相對簡短。確實，我們大約下調了10億美元。其中很大一部分其實是時點與分期（phasing）的因素，並且包含了一些效率提升。所以是兩者混合的結果。

In terms of the read-across, I think the only thing that I would say is really, Kim, we've talked about the fact that we will absorb ARC into our existing CapEx guidance. We still believe that that is true. So looking forward to giving you a bit of an update as we come into Capital Markets Update, which is linked to our Q4 results. So we'll be able to talk to you and unpack that in a bit more detail, but teams are doing great work at the moment in terms of both discipline and just thinking of where to spend the money.

至於可供參考之處（read-across），Kim，我想我唯一要說的是：我們先前談過，我們會把ARC納入既有的CapEx指引之中。我們仍然相信這點是成立的。因此，我們期待在資本市場更新（Capital Markets Update）時給你一些更新；該更新將與我們的第四季（Q4）業績一併發布。屆時我們能與你進一步說明並更詳細拆解，但目前各團隊在紀律執行，以及思考資金該投向何處方面，都做得非常好。

So thank you.

所以謝謝。

Thank you, Kim, and thank you, Sinead. And thank you all for your questions and for joining us in today's call.

謝謝你，Kim，也謝謝你，Sinead。也謝謝各位的提問，以及參與今天的電話會議。

In conclusion, we delivered a very strong set of financial results in this quarter, thanks to our strong operational performance in a volatile macro environment and our continuing focus on performance, discipline, and simplification across all our businesses. We look forward to sharing more about the progress that we've made at our Capital Markets Update, which will take place on February 4.

總結來說，在宏觀環境波動之下，憑藉我們強勁的營運表現，以及我們在所有業務上持續聚焦於績效、紀律與簡化，我們在本季交出了一組非常強勁的財務成果。我們期待在2月4日舉行的資本市場更新中，分享我們已取得的更多進展。

We wish everyone a pleasant end of the week. Thank you again.

祝大家週末愉快。再次感謝。