(SEDG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

SolarEdge Technologies 召開電話會議,討論 2023 年第三季的營運業績,並提供第四季的展望。由於市場動態和庫存趨勢,該公司面臨挑戰,導致收入下降。他們正在採取措施調整成本基礎,並停止了在墨西哥的生產,減少了在中國的產能,並增加了在美國的生產。

儘管進行了庫存調整,SolarEdge 仍相信其產品存在潛在需求,並專注於獲得市場份額和增量成長。該公司提供了財務審查,討論了公認會計準則和非公認會計準則的結果。他們預計第四季的收入和毛利率會下降,但預計明年會有所改善。

演講者也討論了公司的現金流、資產負債表以及不同地區的需求。他們解決了對庫存調整和份額損失的擔憂,並對恢復損失的份額表示樂觀。演講者討論了歐洲和其他地區不斷變化的市場,並強調了公司​​對長期成長和產品開發的承諾。

他們還討論了 COVID-19 對他們業務的影響以及從最近發生的事件中學習的必要性。該公司表示,以色列的徵召對其營運影響極小。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the SolarEdge Conference Call for the Third Quarter ended September 30, 2023. This call is being webcast live on the company's website at www.solaredge.com in the Investors section on the Events Calendar page. This call is the sole property and copyright of SolarEdge with all rights reserved, and any recording, reproduction or transmission of this call without the expressed written consent of SolarEdge is prohibited. You may listen to a webcast replay of this call by visiting the Event Calendar page of the SolarEdge Investor website.

    歡迎參加截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第三季 SolarEdge 電話會議。本次電話會議將在公司網站 www.solaredge.com 活動日曆頁面投資者部分進行網路直播。本通話是 SolarEdge 的專有財產和版權,保留所有權利,未經 SolarEdge 明確書面同意,禁止錄製、複製或傳播本通話。您可以造訪 SolarEdge Investor 網站的活動日曆頁面,收聽本次電話會議的網路廣播重播。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to J.B. Lowe, Head of Investor Relations for SolarEdge.

    我現在想將電話轉給 SolarEdge 投資者關係主管 J.B. Lowe。

  • J.B. Lowe

    J.B. Lowe

  • Thank you, Leo, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss SolarEdge's operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023, as well as the company's outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023. With me today are Zvi Lando, Chief Executive Officer; and Ronen Faier, Chief Financial Officer. Zvi will begin with a brief review of the results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. Ronen will then review the financial results for the third quarter, followed by the company's outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023. We will then open the call for questions.

    謝謝你,Leo,大家下午好。感謝您與我們一起討論 SolarEdge 截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第三季營運業績,以及公司 2023 年第四季的前景。今天與我在一起的是執行長 Zvi Lando;和財務長 Ronen Faier。 Zvi 首先將簡要回顧截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第三季業績。然後 Ronen 將回顧第三季的財務業績,然後是公司對 2023 年第四季的展望。然後我們將開始電話會議如有疑問。

  • Please note that this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in our press release, the slides published today, and our filings with the SEC for a more complete description of such risks and uncertainties. All material contained in the webcast is the sole property and copyright of SolarEdge Technologies, with all rights reserved.

    請注意,本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及可能導致實際結果與管理階層目前預期有重大差異的風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您查看我們的新聞稿、今天發布的幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中包含的安全港聲明,以更完整地描述此類風險和不確定性。網路廣播中包含的所有資料均為 SolarEdge Technologies 的專有財產和版權,並保留所有權利。

  • Please note, this presentation describes certain non-GAAP measures, including non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP net diluted earnings per share, which are not measures prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The non-GAAP measures are presented in this presentation because we believe that they provide investors with the means of evaluating and understanding how the company's management evaluates the company's operating performance. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

    請注意,本簡報描述了某些非 GAAP 衡量標準,包括非 GAAP 淨利潤和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益,這些衡量標準並非根據美國 GAAP 制定。本簡報中介紹了非公認會計準則衡量標準,因為我們相信它們為投資者提供了評估和理解公司管理層如何評估公司經營績效的方法。這些非公認會計原則措施不應孤立地視為根據美國公認會計原則制定的財務措施的替代品或優於其。

  • Listeners who do not have a copy of the quarter ended September 30, 2023, press release or the supplemental material may obtain a copy by visiting the Investor Relations section of the company's website. Now I will turn the call over to Zvi.

    沒有截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的季度副本、新聞稿或補充資料的聽眾可以透過造訪公司網站的投資者關係部分取得副本。現在我將把電話轉給 Zvi。

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, J.B. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us on our conference call today. As reflected in our preliminary announcement a few weeks ago, and in the guidance we are giving today, we are going through challenging times in terms of general market dynamics and specific inventory trends related to our products. In the call today, we will share details of third quarter sales and megawatt sell-through data aggregated from distributors in some of the regions and our latest estimates of underlying business levels in the near future and estimate how long it will take to reach the associated revenue level.

    謝謝 J.B. 下午好,謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。正如我們幾週前的初步公告以及我們今天提供的指導所反映的那樣,就整體市場動態和與我們產品相關的特定庫存趨勢而言,我們正在經歷充滿挑戰的時期。在今天的電話會議中,我們將分享一些地區分銷商匯總的第三季度銷售額和兆瓦銷量數據的詳細信息,以及我們對不久的將來基礎業務水平的最新估計,並估計需要多長時間才能達到相關目標所得水準。

  • Before getting into the regional picture, I want to start with high-level perspective. During 2022, and in particular, the second half of 2022, our industry went through an unprecedented surge in demand, which we attributed to geopolitical and other reasons discussed in our prior calls. Indicators in the beginning of 2023, where that demand would continue to increase this year, in particular in Europe. This led to a buildup of significant backlog for our products, in particular, because at the time, we faced operational challenges to supply over demand. Specifically, this was related to 3-phase commercial inverters that were in high demand and low supply in the late part of 2022 and our supply improved dramatically in early 2023. Additionally, in early 2023, we released in Europe a differentiated 3-phase residential offering of a backup invertor and battery, which our customers were waiting for and excited to adopt.

    在討論區域情況之前,我想先從高層次的角度開始。 2022年,特別是2022年下半年,我們的產業經歷了前所未有的需求激增,我們將其歸因於地緣政治和先前電話中討論的其他原因。 2023 年初的指標顯示,今年的需求將持續增加,特別是在歐洲。這導致我們的產品大量積壓,特別是因為當時我們面臨供應超過需求的營運挑戰。具體來說,這與2022年下半年需求旺盛、供應不足的三相商用逆變器有關,而我們的供應在2023年初大幅改善。此外,2023年初,我們在歐洲發布了差異化的三相住宅逆變器提供備用逆變器和電池,我們的客戶正在等待並興奮地採用它們。

  • As a result of these factors, our shipments in the first half of 2023 were at record levels and we were in the process of increasing capacity to meet the elevated channel demand. However, market demand began to slow in the third quarter and distributors began to experience financial challenges. As a result, we received a large amount of requests to cancel or push out orders. We should note that while these orders are technically binding on our distributors, the nature of our relationship with these customers is such that we accommodated most of these requests. As a result, our third quarter revenue and fourth quarter expected revenues are significantly lower than our run rate in recent quarters, while the infrastructure we built to support the anticipated sales growth has created a burden that is putting pressure on our margins in the near term.

    由於這些因素,我們 2023 年上半年的出貨量達到了創紀錄的水平,並且我們正在增加產能以滿足不斷增長的通路需求。然而,第三季市場需求開始放緩,經銷商開始面臨財務挑戰。因此,我們收到了大量取消或延遲訂單的請求。我們應該注意到,雖然這些訂單在技術上對我們的經銷商具有約束力,但我們與這些客戶的關係性質使得我們滿足了大部分請求。因此,我們第三季的營收和第四季的預期收入明顯低於最近幾季的運行率,而我們為支持預期銷售成長而建立的基礎設施造成了負擔,在短期內給我們的利潤率帶來了壓力。

  • I will describe when and how we believe our revenue will reach a level that reflects stabilized market demand post inventory corrections, and Ronen will elaborate on the margin and financial infrastructure impact of the short-term actions we are taking.

    我將描述我們何時以及如何相信我們的收入將達到反映庫存調整後市場需求穩定的水平,羅南將詳細說明我們正在採取的短期行動對利潤率和金融基礎設施的影響。

  • Now let's go over the highlights of our third quarter results. We concluded the quarter with revenues of approximately $725 million. Revenues from our solar business were $676 million, while revenues from our nonsolar businesses were $49 million. This quarter, we shipped 3.3 million power optimizers and 274,000 inverters. Additionally, this quarter, we shipped 121-megawatt hours of residential batteries, down from 269-megawatt hours last quarter. Our solar business revenues declined quarter-over-quarter by 29% and by 14% year-over-year, driven by market slowdown and high inventory of our products in the channels.

    現在讓我們回顧一下第三季業績的亮點。本季結束時,我們的營收約為 7.25 億美元。我們的太陽能業務收入為 6.76 億美元,而非太陽能業務收入為 4,900 萬美元。本季度,我們出貨了 330 萬個功率優化器和 274,000 個逆變器。此外,本季我們的住宅電池出貨量為 121 兆瓦時,低於上季的 269 兆瓦時。由於市場放緩和通路產品庫存高企,我們的太陽能業務收入環比下降 29%,年減 14%。

  • Moving now to market-by-market dynamics. Starting in Europe. As already described, during the second part of the third quarter, we experienced significant unexpected cancellations and pushouts of existing backlog from our European distributors. Although the dynamics are consistent with what we cautioned during our second quarter earnings call, the magnitude grew much greater than we anticipated. We also note that the European market is a diverse one, and each country comes with its own regulatory environment and energy-related dynamics. I will give some color on what we see on a per-country basis in some of the top countries in which we operate.

    現在轉向逐個市場的動態。從歐洲開始。如前所述,在第三季下半年,我們的歐洲經銷商意外取消了現有積壓訂單並推出了訂單。儘管這一動態與我們在第二季財報電話會議上警告的情況一致,但成長幅度遠大於我們的預期。我們也注意到,歐洲市場是一個多元化的市場,每個國家都有自己的監管環境和能源相關動態。我將詳細介紹我們在我們開展業務的一些主要國家中按國家/地區劃分的情況。

  • According to market reports, Germany, which is the largest rooftop solar market in Europe, is on track this year to connect to the grid more than 10 gigawatts of solar compared to 7.5 gigawatts in 2022. The government has announced a long-term goal to reach 215 gigawatts by 2030, which in order to be achieved, would require annual installation of approximately 20 gigawatts per year, indicating the expected long-term strength of the German market. Consistent with this trend, our residential energy hub 3-phase inverter introduced in April of this year, and our 3-phase battery are optimized for the German market. We continue to see good adoption of this solution.

    根據市場報道,德國是歐洲最大的屋頂太陽能市場,今年預計將太陽能併網量超過 10 吉瓦,而 2022 年為 7.5 吉瓦。政府已宣布了一項長期目標到2030 年達到215 吉瓦,要實現這一目標,每年需要安裝約20 吉瓦,這表明德國市場的預期長期實力。與此趨勢一致,我們在今年 4 月推出了住宅能源中心三相逆變器,並且我們的三相電池針對德國市場進行了最佳化。我們繼續看到該解決方案得到了很好的採用。

  • From a demand perspective, our sell-through in Germany in the third quarter was up 44% year-over-year and down 37% quarter-over-quarter from the peak levels typically seen in the second quarter. The Swiss and Austrian market, which revenue-wise are about 1/3 of the size of our revenue in Germany, utilize the same portfolio of products as Germany, and similarly grew significantly so far in 2023 and are expected to continue to grow in 2024. In fact, Switzerland was a record revenue quarter for us in Q3 and we are well positioned to continue growth in these markets in 2024. Sell-through in these markets was up 213% year-over-year and up 42% quarter-over-quarter.

    從需求角度來看,第三季我們在德國的銷售量年增 44%,較第二季的最高峰下降 37%。 The Swiss and Austrian market, which revenue-wise are about 1/3 of the size of our revenue in Germany, utilize the same portfolio of products as Germany, and similarly grew significantly so far in 2023 and are expected to continue to grow in 2024 . In fact, Switzerland was a record revenue quarter for us in Q3 and we are well positioned to continue growth in these markets in 2024. Sell-through in these markets was up 213% year-over-year and up 42% quarter-over -四分之一.

  • Moving to the Netherlands. The market in the Netherlands is dramatically down from peak levels due to uncertainty around government policies and the phaseout of net metering which may become clearer after the elections in November. That said, there are several trends that we believe will work in our favor in the mid- and long term in this market. The increased implementation of dynamic tariffs combined with the phaseout of net metering is likely to increase the number of full system installations with batteries, EV charging and advanced home energy management capabilities similar to the SolarEdge ONE platform that we launched at Intersolar in June.

    搬到荷蘭。由於政府政策的不確定性以及淨計量的逐步取消,荷蘭市場從高峰水準大幅下跌,這一點在 11 月選舉後可能會變得更加清晰。也就是說,我們認為從中長期來看,該市場有幾個趨勢對我們有利。動態關稅的加強實施以及淨計量的逐步淘汰可能會增加帶有電池、電動車充電和先進家庭能源管理功能的完整系統安裝的數量,類似於我們在 6 月在 Intersolar 上推出的 SolarEdge ONE 平台。

  • Additionally, depending on changes in regulation, the Netherlands could have a large potential for upsell and retrofit of existing installations with additional products, including batteries and EV chargers as well as software capabilities, which is a great opportunity for SolarEdge given our market leadership and best installed base in this country. Furthermore, there has been a push for new residential homes to be built with 3-phase service in what has traditionally been a single-phase market. This one enabled the use of our differentiated 3-phase offering that we have been successful within Germany as described earlier. [These 3] of our products in the combined Belgium and Netherlands market were up 4% year-over-year and down 25% quarter-over-quarter.

    此外,根據法規的變化,荷蘭可能有很大的潛力透過附加產品(包括電池和電動車充電器以及軟體功能)對現有裝置進行追加銷售和改造,鑑於我們的市場領導地位和最佳優勢,這對SolarEdge 來說是一個絕佳的機會。在這個國家的安裝基地。此外,人們一直在推動在傳統上單相市場上建造採用三相服務的新住宅。這使得我們能夠使用我們的差異化三相產品,如前所述,我們已在德國取得了成功。我們的[這 3] 款產品在比利時和荷蘭聯合市場年增 4%,季減 25%。

  • In Italy, the residential market has been sluggish since the super bonus tax credit ended earlier this year. And we saw our point of sale of residential products in this market declined year-over-year by 48%. On the other hand, the commercial market has seen significant growth and has largely offset the decline in the residential market. Our point-of-sale data for commercial products in Italy was up 216% year-over-year in the third quarter. Overall, our megawatt sell-through in Italy was up 85% year-over-year and down 6% quarter-over-quarter. All in all, the underlying demand in the European market were strong in the 9-month period ended September 30. Although below the much elevated expectation heading into the year, leading to the inventory buildup that I described earlier. On an aggregated basis, in Europe, our sell-through in the third quarter was up 34% year-over-year and down 22% quarter-over-quarter.

    在義大利,自今年稍早超級獎金稅收抵免結束以來,住宅市場一直低迷。我們發現該市場住宅產品的銷售點年減了 48%。另一方面,商業市場出現顯著成長,很大程度上抵消了住宅市場的下滑。第三季我們在義大利商業產品的銷售點數據年增 216%。整體而言,我們在義大利的兆瓦銷量較去年同期成長 85%,較上季下降 6%。總而言之,截至 9 月 30 日的 9 個月期間,歐洲市場的潛在需求強勁。儘管低於進入今年大幅提高的預期,導致了我之前描述的庫存累積。總體而言,在歐洲,我們第三季的銷售額年增 34%,季減 22%。

  • Moving to the U.S. We have not seen a significant change in market dynamics since our second quarter call. The market is still being adversely impacted by high interest rates and uncertainties around the pace of adoption of NIM 3.0 systems in California. In commercial, we are seeing a slight improvement as projects that were on hold appear to be moving forward, possibly related to availability of low-priced modules. In our data, sell-through in the third quarter for residential was down 13% quarter-over-quarter and commercial was up 8% quarter-over-quarter. Battery sell-through was up 31% quarter-over-quarter. We expect these market dynamics to continue without significant change in the coming quarters.

    轉向美國,自第二季電話會議以來,我們尚未看到市場動態發生重大變化。市場仍然受到高利率和加州 NIM 3.0 系統採用速度的不確定性的不利影響。在商業方面,我們看到了輕微的改善,因為被擱置的項目似乎正在向前推進,這可能與低價模組的可用性有關。根據我們的數據,第三季住宅銷售量較上季下降 13%,商業銷售量較上季成長 8%。電池銷量較上月成長 31%。我們預計這些市場動態將持續下去,在未來幾季不會發生重大變化。

  • In the rest of the world, our third quarter revenues were relatively stable, and we do not see dramatic shifts in overall revenue over the next several quarters. The rest of world markets are largely dominated by commercial installations, which are impacted by the higher interest rate environment. Local dynamics in specific countries are largely offsetting each other.

    在世界其他地區,我們第三季的收入相對穩定,我們預計未來幾季的整體收入不會發生巨大變化。世界其他市場主要由商業裝置主導,而商業裝置則受到較高利率環境的影響。特定國家的當地動態在很大程度上相互抵消。

  • Taking into account these market dynamics, we use the demand patterns represented by the sell-through data discussed above to model the time we think it will take to run down the inventory level and have estimated a normalized level of revenue and margin following the inventory corrections. We used our sell-through data for the third quarter of 2023 as a baseline and did not include potential additional revenue from new products that we will discuss separately for market share improvements that we are working on and for which we see positive signs. This modeling currently indicates in a noninventory challenge environment, a revenue run rate of approximately $600 million to $700 million per quarter. Using this model and looking at inventory data that we received from our distributors, we estimate the correction could take 2 to 3 quarters of gradual improvement quarter-over-quarter.

    考慮到這些市場動態,我們使用上面討論的銷售數據所代表的需求模式來模擬我們認為降低庫存水準所需的時間,並估計了庫存修正後收入和利潤的標準化水準。我們使用 2023 年第三季的銷售數據作為基準,不包括新產品帶來的潛在額外收入,我們將單獨討論這些新產品,以提高我們正在努力的市場份額,並看到了積極的跡象。該模型目前表明,在非庫存挑戰環境中,每季的收入運行率約為 6 億至 7 億美元。使用這個模型並查看我們從分銷商收到的庫存數據,我們估計修正可能需要 2 到 3 個季度的逐季逐步改善。

  • Moving to the operational side. We are, of course, already taking measures to adjust our cost base to this projected level of business. To align with reduced demand, we have discontinued manufacturing of our products in Mexico and reduced capacity in China. In parallel, we are ramping up manufacturing in our U.S. facility, where we expect to ship 12,000 Energy Hub inverters in the fourth quarter, ramping to a run rate of 50,000 units per quarter. Additionally, we are targeting for a second site to begin producing commercial inverters and optimizers by the second quarter of 2024.

    轉向營運方面。當然,我們已經採取措施調整我們的成本基礎以適應這一預期的業務水平。為了適應需求的減少,我們停止了在墨西哥的產品生產,並減少了在中國的產能。同時,我們正在加大美國工廠的生產力度,預計第四季將運送 12,000 台 Energy Hub 逆變器,每季的運行率將增至 50,000 台。此外,我們的目標是在 2024 年第二季之前建立第二個工廠,開始生產商用逆變器和優化器。

  • An additional step of cost reduction is our decision to discontinue our light commercial vehicle e-mobility activity, which we consider as non-core. And as such, we delivered final kits to Stellantis in October. We intend to continue making adjustments to achieve the levels of profitability at the revenue run rate discussed earlier, which Ronen will elaborate on in his comments.

    降低成本的另一個步驟是我們決定停止我們認為非核心的輕型商用車電動車活動。因此,我們在 10 月向 Stellantis 交付了最終套件。我們打算繼續進行調整,以達到前面討論的收入運行率的盈利水平,羅南將在他的評論中詳細闡述這一點。

  • Moving on to products. We recently installed our first 330-kilowatt inverter in the U.S., following similar installations that have been running for some time in Europe and Asia. This product is specifically targeting community solar and agri-PV applications. We will be ramping production in the fourth quarter for further deliveries globally in 2024. This will expand our offering for these ground mount applications beyond the tracker product that we released a few months ago. This quarter, we are also announcing the approval by our Board of Directors of a share repurchase program, which reflects our confidence in the future growth of our company. The plan authorizes the repurchase of up to $300 million of the company's stock through 2024.

    轉向產品。繼在歐洲和亞洲運行了一段時間的類似安裝之後,我們最近在美國安裝了第一台 330 千瓦逆變器。該產品專門針對社區太陽能和農業光伏應用。我們將在第四季度提高產量,以便在 2024 年在全球範圍內進一步交付。這將擴大我們為這些地面安裝應用提供的產品,超越我們幾個月前發布的追蹤器產品。本季度,我們也宣布董事會批准股票回購計劃,這反映了我們對公司未來成長的信心。該計劃授權在 2024 年之前回購最多 3 億美元的公司股票。

  • I would like now to address the ongoing situation in Israel and how it is affecting our company. We have seen no disruption to our ability to manufacture and deliver products and services to our customers. Approximately 11% of our Israel-based workforce, which is approximately 6% of our global workforce, has been called up for reserve duty, and we are prioritizing and reallocating resources between projects to make sure that the impact to our business is minimum.

    我現在想談談以色列目前的局勢及其對我們公司的影響。我們沒有發現我們為客戶製造和提供產品及服務的能力受到干擾。我們約 11% 的以色列員工(約占我們全球員工的 6%)已被徵召履行預備役義務,我們正在對專案之間的資源進行優先排序和重新分配,以確保對我們業務的影響降至最低。

  • To conclude my remarks, setting aside recent and upcoming inventory corrections, we believe the underlying demand for our products, while at a reduced level from the first half of 2023 is above our projected fourth quarter revenue and represents our strong position in the market. On top of this, our global sales force is energized and focused on gaining market share based on the products and improvements made to our core portfolio in the last 12 to 18 months. This, together with the new products we have developed for the new segments we have entered, should create an opportunity for incremental growth at a faster rate than the solar market in the coming year.

    最後,撇開最近和即將到來的庫存調整不談,我們相信我們產品的潛在需求雖然較2023 年上半年有所下降,但高於我們預計的第四季度收入,代表了我們在市場中的強勢地位。除此之外,我們的全球銷售團隊充滿活力,專注於根據過去 12 至 18 個月的產品和對我們核心產品組合的改進來贏得市場份額。再加上我們為進入的新領域開發的新產品,應該會為來年以比太陽能市場更快的速度創造增量成長的機會。

  • I will now hand it over to Ronen.

    現在我將把它交給羅南。

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • Thank you, Zvi, and good afternoon, everyone. This financial review includes a GAAP and non-GAAP discussion. Full reconciliation of the pro forma to GAAP results discussed on this call is available on our website and in the press release issued today.

    謝謝你,Zvi,大家下午好。本財務審查包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 討論。本次電話會議中討論的備考結果與公認會計準則結果的完全一致可在我們的網站和今天發布的新聞稿中找到。

  • Segment profit is comprised of gross profit for the segment, less operating expenses that do not include amortization of purchased intangible assets, impairments of goodwill and intangible assets, stock-based compensation expenses and certain other items. Total revenues for the third quarter were $725.3 million, a 27% decrease compared to $991.3 million in the last quarter and a 13% decrease compared to $836.7 million for the same quarter last year. Revenues from our solar segment, which include the sales of residential batteries and trackers were $676.4 million, a 29% decrease compared to $947.4 million last quarter and a 14% decrease compared to $788.6 million for the same quarter last year. Total revenues from the United States this quarter were $195.7 million, similar to the last quarter, and 22% decrease from the same quarter last year, representing approximately 29% of our solar revenues.

    分部利潤由分部毛利減去營業費用(不包括購買無形資產攤提、商譽及無形資產減損、股票補償費用及某些其他項目)組成。第三季總營收為 7.253 億美元,比上一季的 9.913 億美元下降 27%,比去年同期的 8.367 億美元下降 13%。我們的太陽能部門的收入(包括住宅電池和追蹤器的銷售)為 6.764 億美元,比上季度的 9.474 億美元下降 29%,比去年同期的 7.886 億美元下降 14%。本季來自美國的總營收為 1.957 億美元,與上季相似,比去年同期下降 22%,約占我們太陽能營收的 29%。

  • Solar revenues from Europe were $419.2 million, a 39% decrease from the last quarter and 12% increase from the same quarter last year, representing 62% of our solar revenues. In Europe, we saw a meaningful quarter-over-quarter revenue drop across the board with noticeable declines in Germany with 43% decline, Netherlands with 40% decline, U.K. with 41% decline and Poland with 67% decline. On a positive side, revenues in Switzerland grew this quarter by 11%, reaching a record high. And in France, revenues grew by 37%. Significant portion of our revenues decline in Europe are attributed to lower sales of batteries where a combination of inventories in the beginning of the quarter and lower demand than anticipated by our customers, led to an accumulation of large quantities in the channels.

    來自歐洲的太陽能收入為 4.192 億美元,比上季下降 39%,比去年同期成長 12%,占我們太陽能收入的 62%。在歐洲,我們看到收入全面環比大幅下降,其中德國下降了 43%,荷蘭下降了 40%,英國下降了 41%,波蘭下降了 67%。從積極的一面來看,瑞士本季的營收成長了 11%,達到歷史新高。在法國,營收成長了 37%。我們在歐洲收入下降的很大一部分原因是電池銷售下降,本季初的庫存和需求低於客戶預期,導致通路中大量累積。

  • Rest of World solar revenues were $61.5 million, a 3% decrease compared to the last quarter and flat compared to the third quarter of last year, representing approximately 9% of our solar revenues. On a megawatt basis, we shipped 774 megawatts of inverters to the United States, 2.6 gigawatts to Europe and 467 megawatts to the rest of the world, totaling 3.8 gigawatts of quarterly inverter shipments. During the quarter, we continued to ship a higher ratio of inverters related to optimizers in order to catch up with previous Optimizer sales. During the quarter, 66% of our megawatt shipments were commercial products and the remaining 34% were residential.

    世界其他地區的太陽能收入為 6,150 萬美元,比上一季下降 3%,與去年第三季持平,約占我們太陽能收入的 9%。以兆瓦計算,我們向美國運送了 774 兆瓦逆變器,向歐洲運送了 2.6 兆瓦,向世界其他地區運送了 467 兆瓦,季度逆變器出貨量總計 3.8 吉瓦。本季度,我們繼續出貨更高比例的與優化器相關的逆變器,以趕上先前的優化器銷售。本季度,我們的兆瓦出貨量中有 66% 是商業產品,其餘 34% 是住宅產品。

  • Since the beginning of the year, we have shipped approximately 7.1 gigawatts of commercial products worldwide compared to the 5.2 gigawatt ship in all of 2022. In the third quarter, we shipped 121-megawatt hour of our residential batteries, a decrease from 269-megawatt hour last quarter. While our battery sales in Europe decreased significantly, battery sales in the United States remained relatively stable, and we continue to see a steady increase in installation rates in the United States. Average selling per watt this quarter excluding battery revenues was $0.164, a 13% decrease from $0.188 last quarter. This ASP per watt decrease is predominantly a result of a lower optimizer shipment mix during the quarter, an increase in the weight of commercial inverters in our overall mix and the weaker euro. In general, our prices did not change this quarter. Our battery ASP per kilowatt hour was $475, slightly down from $479 last quarter, mostly a result of a weaker euro.

    自今年年初以來,我們在全球範圍內運送了約7.1 吉瓦的商業產品,而2022 年全年的出貨量為5.2 吉瓦。第三季度,我們的住宅電池出貨量為121 兆瓦時,低於269 兆瓦時。上個季度的小時數。雖然我們在歐洲的電池銷售量大幅下降,但美國的電池銷售量保持相對穩定,我們繼續看到美國的安裝率穩定上升。本季不包括電池收入的平均每瓦銷售額為 0.164 美元,比上季度的 0.188 美元下降 13%。每瓦平均售價下降的主要原因是本季優化器出貨量組合減少、商用逆變器在我們整體組合中的比重增加以及歐元疲軟。總的來說,本季我們的價格沒有變化。我們的電池平均售價為每千瓦時 475 美元,略低於上季的 479 美元,主要是因為歐元疲軟。

  • Revenues this quarter from our nonsolar segment were $48.7 million, an increase from $43.7 million last quarter. Consolidated GAAP gross margins for the quarter was 19.7%, down from 32% in the prior quarter and down from 26.5% in the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP gross margin this quarter was 20.8% compared to 32.7% in the prior quarter and 37.3% for the same quarter last year. Gross margin for the solar segment was 24% compared to 34.7% in the prior quarter and 28.3% in the same quarter last year.

    本季非太陽能部門的營收為 4,870 萬美元,較上季的 4,370 萬美元有所成長。本季綜合 GAAP 毛利率為 19.7%,低於上一季的 32%,也低於去年同期的 26.5%。本季非 GAAP 毛利率為 20.8%,上一季為 32.7%,去年同期為 37.3%。太陽能業務的毛利率為 24%,上一季為 34.7%,去年同期為 28.3%。

  • I would like now to address the decrease in our gross margins in the third quarter and provide color on the fourth quarter and the quarters ahead. Our cost of goods sold are comprised of variable costs that are correlated to the product mix and volume shift, such as manufacturing costs, shipping and logistics expenses, et cetera. In addition, we have other indirect costs that are not volume or mix specific, such as warranty costs related to our existing and growing installed base, contract manufactured claims related to adjustments made to the manufacturing levels and costs associated with our operation and support department, et cetera. These costs are not correlated to the volumes of product shipped and usually require some time to be adjusted to significant changes in revenues.

    我現在想談談第三季毛利率的下降,並提供第四季和未來幾季的情況。我們的銷售成本由與產品組合和銷售變化相關的變動成本組成,例如製造成本、運輸和物流費用等。此外,我們還有其他非數量或組合特定的間接成本,例如與我們現有和不斷增長的安裝基礎相關的保固成本、與製造水平調整相關的合約製造索賠以及與我們的營運和支援部門相關的成本,等等。這些成本與產品出貨量無關,通常需要一些時間來適應收入的重大變化。

  • Of the total quarter-over-quarter reduction of 1,070 basis points in the solar segment margin, approximately 160 basis points are attributed to higher portion of commercial products and lower portion of optimizers within our product mix, customer mix and the devaluation of the euro against the U.S. dollar. The remaining 910 basis points decline are mostly related to the allocation of our indirect costs over a lower revenue base. Around 1/3 of the 910 basis points are related to warranty and service costs across our existing and growing installed base that do not change when revenues decline. Approximately 200 basis points are related to the allocation of our operations, quality and support organizations over lower revenues. The remaining amount is a result of a higher percentage of logistic costs due to increased storage expenses and underutilization costs to contract manufacturers.

    太陽能細分市場利潤率環比下降 1,070 個基點,其中約 160 個基點歸因於我們的產品組合、客戶組合中商業產品比例較高和優化器比例較低以及歐元兌美元貶值美元。其餘 910 個基點的下降主要與我們在較低收入基礎上分配間接成本有關。 910 個基點中約 1/3 與我們現有和不斷增長的安裝基礎的保固和服務成本相關,這些成本在收入下降時不會改變。大約 200 個基點與我們的營運、品質和支援組織在較低收入下的分配有關。剩餘金額是由於合約製造商的倉儲費用增加和利用不足成本導致物流成本百分比較高的結果。

  • In the third quarter, we have also recorded a onetime expense related to the discontinuation of manufacturing in Mexico. These economies of scale will persist and even worsen in the fourth quarter as revenues are abnormally low. Noteworthy is that these indirect costs were down quarter-over-quarter on an absolute basis. And due to the actions in process we expect them to be significantly lower again in the fourth quarter in absolute value. We expect margins to gradually improve in the first and second quarter of the next year as we will continue to reduce cost and as our revenues return to a more normalized level. Gross margin for our nonsolar segment was minus 22.8% compared to minus 9.6% in the previous quarter.

    在第三季度,我們還記錄了與墨西哥停止生產相關的一次性費用。由於收入異常低,這些規模經濟將持續存在,甚至在第四季進一步惡化。值得注意的是,這些間接成本的絕對值較上季下降。由於正在進行的行動,我們預計第四季的絕對值將再次大幅下降。我們預計明年第一季和第二季的利潤率將逐步提高,因為我們將繼續降低成本,並且我們的收入恢復到更正常的水平。我們的非太陽能部門的毛利率為-22.8%,而上一季為-9.6%。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, operating expenses for the second quarter were $128 million or 17.6% of revenues compared to $133.3 million or 13.4% of revenues in the prior quarter and $108.3 million or 12.9% of revenues for the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP operating income for the quarter was $23.1 million compared to $191 million in the previous quarter and $120.2 million for the same period last year. The Solar segment generated operating income of $45.7 million this quarter, down from $207 million in the last quarter. The non-solar segment generated an operating loss of $22.6 million compared to an operating loss of $16.1 million in the previous quarter.

    以非公認會計原則計算,第二季營運費用為1.28 億美元,佔營收的17.6%,而上一季為1.333 億美元,佔營收的13.4%,去年同期為1.083 億美元,佔營收的12.9% 。本季非 GAAP 營業收入為 2,310 萬美元,上一季為 1.91 億美元,去年同期為 1.202 億美元。太陽能部門本季營業收入為 4,570 萬美元,低於上季的 2.07 億美元。非太陽能部門的營運虧損為 2,260 萬美元,而上一季的營運虧損為 1,610 萬美元。

  • Non-GAAP financial loss for the quarter was $7.4 million compared to a non-GAAP financial income of $4.4 million in the previous quarter. The loss was largely a result of a weaker euro during the quarter. Our non-GAAP tax expense was $46.6 million compared to $38 million in the previous quarter and $34.5 million for the same period last year. The unusual result is mostly due to the amortization of R&D expenses for tax purposes, as well as temporarily higher tax rate related to the quarterly tax calculation methodology. We expect our annual non-GAAP tax rate for the entire 2023 to be within 22% to 24%.

    本季非 GAAP 財務虧損為 740 萬美元,上一季非 GAAP 財務收入為 440 萬美元。虧損主要是由於本季歐元疲軟造成的。我們的非 GAAP 稅務費用為 4,660 萬美元,而上一季為 3,800 萬美元,去年同期為 3,450 萬美元。這一不尋常的結果主要是由於稅收目的的研發費用攤銷,以及與季度計稅方法相關的暫時較高的稅率所致。我們預計 2023 年全年非 GAAP 年度稅率將在 22% 至 24% 之間。

  • GAAP net loss for the third quarter was $61.2 million compared to a GAAP net income of $119.5 million in the previous quarter and GAAP net income of $24.7 million in the same quarter last year. Our non-GAAP net loss was $31 million compared to a non-GAAP net income of $157.4 million in the previous quarter and a non-GAAP net income of $54.1 million in the same quarter last year. GAAP net diluted loss per share was $1.08 for the third quarter compared to a GAAP net diluted earnings per share of $2.03 in the previous quarter and a GAAP net diluted earnings per share of $0.43 for the same quarter last year.

    第三季 GAAP 淨虧損為 6,120 萬美元,而上一季 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.195 億美元,去年同期 GAAP 淨利潤為 2,470 萬美元。我們的非 GAAP 淨虧損為 3,100 萬美元,而上一季的非 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.574 億美元,去年同期的非 GAAP 淨利潤為 5,410 萬美元。第三季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨虧損 1.08 美元,上一季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨收益為 2.03 美元,去年同期 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨收益為 0.43 美元。

  • Non-GAAP net diluted loss per share was $0.55 compared to a non-GAAP net diluted earnings per share of $2.62 in the previous quarter and non-GAAP net diluted earnings per share of $0.91 in the same quarter last year. As mentioned by Zvi, we expect that the stabilized solar revenue levels after the inventory correction has run its course, will be approximately $600 million to $700 million quarterly. Under this scenario, corporate non-GAAP gross margins are targeted to be 30% to 32%, including approximately 500 basis points of benefits from IRA, manufacturing tax credit and operating profit margins are targeted to be at 11% to 14% after implementing cost reduction activities. I reiterate that this scenario is based on no improvement in demand from our third quarter sell-through levels and assumes no incremental revenues or margin from new products.

    非 GAAP 稀釋後每股淨虧損為 0.55 美元,而上一季非 GAAP 稀釋後每股淨收益為 2.62 美元,去年同期非 GAAP 稀釋後每股淨收益為 0.91 美元。正如 Zvi 所提到的,我們預計庫存調整結束後穩定的太陽能收入水準將約為每季 6 億至 7 億美元。在此情境下,企業非公認會計準則毛利率目標為30%至32%,其中包括IRA帶來的約500個基點的收益、製造稅收抵免,以及實施成本後的營業利潤率目標為11%至14%削減活動。我重申,這種情況是基於我們第三季銷售水準的需求沒有改善,並且假設新產品沒有增加收入或利潤。

  • Turning now to the balance sheet. As of September 30, 2023, cash, cash equivalents, bank deposits, restricted bank deposits and investments were $1.5 billion. Net of debt, this amount is $831.4 million. This quarter, cash generated from operations was $40.6 million as a reduction in our receivables account and raw materials inventories were partially offset by an increase in finished goods inventories. As we had anticipated, we swung back to cash flow from operations generation in the third quarter, and we expect to see greater cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter.

    現在轉向資產負債表。截至2023年9月30日,現金、現金等價物、銀行存款、受限銀行存款及投資為15億美元。扣除債務後,該金額為 8.314 億美元。本季度,營運產生的現金為 4,060 萬美元,因為我們的應收帳款和原材料庫存的減少被製成品庫存的增加部分抵消。正如我們預期的那樣,我們在第三季度恢復了營運產生的現金流,並且預計第四季度營運產生的現金流將增加。

  • Accounts receivable net decreased this quarter to $940 million compared to $1.15 billion last quarter, representing 149 days outstanding. This increase in customers' days sales outstanding resulted from extended payment terms provided to our customers, especially in Europe in order to assist them handling with higher inventory levels than desired, as previously described. As of September 30, our inventory level net of reserve was at $1.2 billion compared to $984.2 million in the last quarter. The increase is solely attributed to higher finished goods inventories, a result of the abrupt slowdown in shipments, offset by a decrease in raw material inventory.

    本季應收帳款淨額從上季的 11.5 億美元減少至 9.4 億美元,未償還天數為 149 天。客戶應收帳款天數的增加是由於向我們的客戶提供了延長的付款期限,特別是在歐洲,以幫助他們處理高於預期的庫存水平,如前所述。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的庫存水準(扣除準備金)為 12 億美元,而上季為 9.842 億美元。這一增長完全歸因於出貨量突然放緩導致成品庫存增加,但被原材料庫存減少所抵消。

  • Turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023. We're guiding revenues to be within a range of $300 million to $350 million. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 5% to 8%, including approximately 130 basis points of net IRA manufacturing tax credit. We expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of $126 million to $130 million. Revenues from the solar segment are expected to be within the range of $275 million to $320 million. Gross margin from our solar segment is expected to be within the range of 7% to 10%, including approximately 130 basis points of net IRA manufacturing tax credit.

    轉向我們對 2023 年第四季的指導。我們指導收入在 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 5% 至 8% 之間,其中包括約 130 個基點的淨 IRA 製造業稅收抵免。我們預計我們的非 GAAP 營運費用將在 1.26 億美元至 1.3 億美元之間。太陽能部門的收入預計在2.75億美元至3.2億美元之間。我們太陽能部門的毛利率預計在 7% 至 10% 範圍內,其中包括約 130 個基點的淨 IRA 製造稅收抵免。

  • I will now turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions.

    我現在將把電話轉給接線員以供提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Philip Shen of ROTH MKM.

    (操作員說明)我們將回答 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen 提出的第一個問題。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to explore the correction cadence some more. As it relates to Q4, you have this $300 million to $350 million revenue range, and you talked about how things could grow gradually in the coming 2 to 3 quarters or the subsequent 2 to 3 quarters. So could you -- can you quantify in any way, Q1, Q2 and even Q3 is kind of revenue number with either a 3 or 4 in front of it more reasonable. And then when we get back to Q4, once you're post correction, do you jump right away to that $600 million to $700 million. And then as it relates to margins, could you do the same kind of sketch for that as well? You talked about things gradually improving, but the margin challenge this quarter was for the guide here in Q4, very much has to do with mix. Would you expect your mix to be very similar for Q1 through Q3 of next year as well?

    我想進一步探索修正節奏。就第四季度而言,您的收入範圍為 3 億至 3.5 億美元,並且您談到了未來 2 至 3 個季度或隨後的 2 至 3 個季度如何逐漸增長。那麼你能——你能以任何方式量化嗎,Q1、Q2 甚至 Q3 都是一種收入數字,前面加上 3 或 4 更合理。然後,當我們回到第四季時,一旦進行了修正,您是否會立即跳至 6 億至 7 億美元。然後,由於它與邊距相關,您是否也可以為此繪製相同類型的草圖?您談到事情正在逐漸改善,但本季度的利潤挑戰是針對第四季度的指南,這在很大程度上與組合有關。您是否希望明年第一季到第三季的組合也非常相似?

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • Okay, Phil. First of all, I thank you for the question, and I hope that I'll capture everything, if not, please correct me. So I will start by saying that forecasting the cadence of changes, in particular, complicated right now because of the fact that the changes that we've seen were relatively fast. But in a way that we are analyzing the markets and we analyze them based on U.S., Europe and rest of the world, we're basically looking at the overall shipments that we did compared to the rate of sell-through data, as Zvi mentioned in his prepared remarks. And when we look at them, we basically see that right now -- the numbers that we see are representing approximately 50% of our normalized level.

    好吧,菲爾。首先感謝您的提問,希望我能抓住一切,如果沒有,請糾正我。因此,我首先要說的是,預測變化的節奏現在尤其複雜,因為我們看到的變化相對較快。但在某種程度上,我們正​​在分析市場,並根據美國、歐洲和世界其他地區進行分析,我們基本上是在比較我們的總體出貨量與銷售率數據,正如 Zvi 所提到的在他準備好的講話中。當我們查看它們時,我們現在基本上看到了這一點——我們看到的數字大約代表了我們標準化水平的 50%。

  • Now when it comes to the correction, there is a little bit of difference, I would say, between the U.S. and Europe. First of all, starting from Europe, we usually see that Q4 is a down quarter compared to Q3, and then Q1 is not necessarily up compared to Q4 because of seasonality. And here, winter plays a very important role. The way that we see it is that we should see a higher growth in -- or revenues in Q1 in Europe already because, first of all, we do understand that in the composition of the inventory within the distribution channels, we have both commercial and residential products. They are not evenly distributed. And therefore, we believe that some of the products, even though maybe on, let's say, single phase, you see a little bit of a higher revenue -- sorry, a higher inventory than commercial, they will run out of commercial and will need to grow a little bit faster.

    現在,說到修正,我想說,美國和歐洲之間存在一些差異。首先,從歐洲開始,我們通常看到Q4比Q3是下降的季度,然後由於季節性原因,Q1比Q4不一定是上升的。在這裡,冬天扮演著非常重要的角色。我們認為,我們應該看到歐洲第一季收入的更高成長,因為首先,我們確實了解,在分銷管道內的庫存組成中,我們既有商業的,也有商業的。住宅產品。它們分佈不均勻。因此,我們認為,某些產品,即使可能是單相的,您也會看到更高的收入 - 抱歉,庫存比商業產品更高,他們將耗盡商業產品,並且需要成長得更快一點。

  • We see, for example, that in the last quarters we shipped a little bit more inverters and optimizers. We believe that right now, optimizers level may be a little bit lower than it should be at the end of Q1. And therefore, we do expect to see a relatively linear growth in Europe going from this quarter into the, let's say, second and third quarter, again, with heavy reliance on how winter looks like. If it is going to be a light winter, where you see a lot of installations, as you saw last year, you will see a little bit of a steeper growth from Q4 to Q1 and then a little bit of a slower growth to Q2 and then back to Q3. If it's going to be a hard winter, then you will see a little bit of a flatter line compared to Q4, but then a bigger increase.

    例如,我們看到,在過去的幾個季度中,我們出貨了更多的逆變器和優化器。我們認為,目前優化器的水平可能比第一季末的水平要低一些。因此,我們確實預計歐洲從本季到第二季和第三季將出現相對線性的成長,並且嚴重依賴冬季的情況。如果今年是一個溫和的冬天,你會看到很多安裝,就像你去年看到的那樣,你會看到從第四季度到第一季的成長有點陡峭,然後到第二季的成長有點慢,然後回到Q3。如果冬天將是一個寒冷的冬天,那麼與第四季度相比,您會看到一條線稍微平坦一些,但隨後會出現更大的增長。

  • When it comes to the U.S., in the U.S., we actually do not expect a lot of changes in the overall situation of our revenues because, as we've mentioned since the beginning of the year, this is a market where it's relatively predictable or the slowdown was relatively predictable. The channels are behaving in a more linear manner. You don't see so much seasonality as you can see. And therefore we expect to see, I would say, relatively similar revenues, let's say, from this quarter to the following quarters, maybe with a little bit of a slowdown in Q4 because of the end of the year. And rest of the world is expected to be, I would say, relatively similar with small linear growth.

    說到美國,在美國,我們實際上預計我們的收入整體情況不會有太大變化,因為正如我們年初以來提到的,這是一個相對可預測或可預測的市場。經濟放緩是相對可以預見的。通道以更加線性的方式運作。你看不到那麼多的季節性。因此,我想說,我們預計從本季度到接下來的幾個季度,收入會相對相似,但由於年底,第四季度可能會略有放緩。我想說,世界其他地區預計將相對相似,線性成長較小。

  • So now I'll try to summarize how things would look like. Because if we see that U.S. and rest of the world should be, I would say, relatively similar to where they are today, with, again, a little bit of a drop at the beginning in Q4, we do expect to see, I would say, pretty linear growth from Q4 into, let's say, Q3 where we may normalize at the $600 million to $700 million, should be relatively -- from Q1 until the third quarter where we're supposed to be seeing the $600 million to $700 million, which should be pretty linear. If we will see that the winter is going to be a little bit lighter, we will see more impact on Q1. And then, yes, it may be starting with a 4. But again, right now, we'll simply need to see how the winter develops there and how the overall inventory clearing is going away.

    所以現在我將嘗試總結事情會是什麼樣子。因為如果我們看到美國和世界其他地區應該與今天的情況相對相似,在第四季度初再次出現一點點下降,我們確實預計會看到,我會比如說,從第四季度到第三季度的線性成長,我們可以正常化為6 億到7 億美元,應該是相對的——從第一季到第三季度,我們應該看到6 億到7 億美元,這應該是非常線性的。如果我們看到冬天會稍微亮一點,我們會看到對第一季的影響更大。然後,是的,可能會從 4 開始。但同樣,現在,我們只需要看看那裡的冬天如何發展以及整體庫存清理如何消失。

  • From a margin point of view, it's a little bit different because on the variable areas, we do not see major changes happening over the next 3 quarters. The price that we pay for our product from a bill of materials point of view, of course, this is something that does not change materially. The thing that will really get a little bit better as we move forward is all of the, I would call, nonvariable items. So let's try to look at some of them.

    從邊際角度來看,情況略有不同,因為在可變領域,我們認為未來 3 個季度不會發生重大變化。從物料清單的角度來看,我們為產品支付的價格當然是不會發生實質變化的。隨著我們前進,真正會變得更好的事情是所有我稱之為不變的項目。那麼讓我們嘗試看看其中的一些。

  • First of all, as mentioned in the prepared remarks, with -- new work with contract manufacturers and as good as they are in supporting you, after building a very large capacity aiming at growth that, of course, we see now that is not happening, we see that our contract manufacturers have fixed costs that we will have to help them cover when the changes or the reduction in the production level is going down. And this is weighing on our revenues, both in Q4 and in Q1 because this is the time that it takes for them to make these adjustments. And especially given the fact that at that time, the basis of revenues is going to be also lower. So therefore, the -- these economies of scale are working extra hours. We believe that around Q2, we will have much less of these chargers that will go away.

    首先,正如在準備好的發言中所提到的,在建立了旨在增長的非常大的產能之後,與合約製造商進行了新的合作,並儘可能地為您提供支持,當然,我們現在看到這種情況並沒有發生,我們看到我們的合約製造商有固定成本,當生產水平發生變化或下降時,我們必須幫助他們彌補這些成本。這對我們第四季和第一季的收入造成壓力,因為這是他們做出這些調整所需的時間。特別是考慮到那時收入的基礎也會降低。因此,這些規模經濟正在加班。我們相信,在第二季度左右,我們將不再使用的充電器數量將大大減少。

  • At the same time, we have prior to any cost reductions that we will do in efficiencies, relatively flat expenses on the support department because we do not want to reduce the support level that we give today to our existing fleet and to our operations team. And therefore, here, it's mostly going to be related to the fact that the more revenues you have, you have a higher denominator and therefore, the percentage is going a little bit better. So if I try to summarize all of this, here, I do expect to see that you will not see a linear growth in gross margins, but it will be more tilted or the improvement will be more tilted towards, again, second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter. This is also, by the way, related to the fact that we will continue to ramp up our U.S. factory and see more IRAs.

    同時,在降低成本之前,我們將提高效率,支援部門的支出相對平坦,因為我們不想降低今天為現有機隊和營運團隊提供的支援水準。因此,在這裡,這主要與這樣一個事實有關:你的收入越多,你的分母就越高,因此,百分比會好一點。因此,如果我嘗試總結所有這一切,我確實希望看到您不會看到毛利率的線性增長,但會更加傾斜,或者改善將更加傾向於 2024 年第二季和第三季。順便說一句,這也與我們將繼續擴大我們的美國工廠並看到更多的 IRA 有關。

  • So it's a lot of moving parts, but I would say quite leaner revenue return and less linear, more inclines towards Q2 gross margin change. And again, sorry for the remaining moving parts, but that's the complexity of the business.

    因此,有很多變動因素,但我想說的是,收入回報相當精簡,線性度較低,更傾向於第二季毛利率變化。再次,對剩餘的活動部件感到抱歉,但這就是業務的複雜性。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Shifting to cash flow and balance sheet. I know you guys have a lot of cash and marketable securities. I was wondering if you could share a little bit more on how you expect cash flow to be in the coming quarters as you kind of follow this correction. Do you expect how much burn do you see for Q4 and then through Q3 of next year? And then how do you expect working capital to trend, I see the inventory line has gone up healthily or substantially. And when do you expect the bulk of that to kind of normalize as well?

    轉向現金流和資產負債表。我知道你們有很多現金和有價證券。我想知道您是否可以更多地分享您對未來幾季現金流的預期,因為您有點遵循這一調整。您預計第四季和明年第三季的消耗量有多少?然後你預計營運資金的趨勢如何,我看到庫存線已經健康或大幅上升。您預計其中大部分何時會正常化?

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • Okay. So here, the answer is that, when you're growing you actually usually need a little bit more working capital because you are manufacturing, you increase inventories, then you give customer credits. And then -- and that means that you consume a little bit more of working capital. When we look at cash flow for the next 3 quarters, let's talk about cash flow from operations, and let's also talk about the way about free cash flow because this is a result also of capital investments. So from a cash flow from operations, we expect to see actually an increase in the cash flow from operations generation.

    好的。所以在這裡,答案是,當你成長時,你實際上通常需要更多的營運資金,因為你在製造,你增加庫存,然後你給予客戶信用。然後——這意味著你會消耗更多的營運資金。當我們看未來三個季度的現金流時,我們來談談營運現金流,我們也來談談自由現金流,因為這也是資本投資的結果。因此,從營運現金流來看,我們預計營運產生的現金流實際上會增加。

  • As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have generated about $41 million this quarter. We expect to see a much higher number in the fourth quarter and numbers to continuing increase towards Q1 and Q2, simply because of the fact that we have relatively large customer balances from the quarter that we shipped and sold a little bit more. As I mentioned, we also increased a little bit payment terms for our European customers. And therefore, within Q3 -- sorry, Q4 and Q1, we will collect relatively heavily on those.

    正如我在準備好的發言中提到的,本季我們的收入約為 4,100 萬美元。我們預計第四季度的數字會更高,第一季度和第二季度的數字將繼續增加,這僅僅是因為我們在發貨和銷售多一點的季度中擁有相對較大的客戶餘額。正如我所提到的,我們也為歐洲客戶增加了一點付款條件。因此,在第三季度——抱歉,第四季和第一季度,我們將在這些方面收集相對較多的資金。

  • When you look at the inventory levels that we're carrying, we're carrying quite high inventory levels because, again, we were anticipating growth. And that means that we're going to start consuming this inventory over time. This will also go back to the cash. And when it comes to paying to our vendors, the fact is that this is more correlated to your manufacturing levels. So therefore, when you're manufacturing less, you're actually paying less to your payables. So that means that we expect to see an accelerating cash flow from operations within Q4 and Q1 and hopefully starting to see again growth in revenues starting to impact cash flow in Q2, but it's still supposed to be positive and, of course, because of the fact that we still collect and using inventory.

    當你查看我們的庫存水準時,我們的庫存水準相當高,因為我們再次預期成長。這意味著我們將隨著時間的推移開始消耗這些庫存。這也將回到現金。當談到向我們的供應商付款時,事實是這與您的製造水平更相關。因此,當你減少生產時,你實際上支付的應付帳款就會減少。因此,這意味著我們預計第四季度和第一季的營運現金流將加速,並希望開始再次看到收入成長開始影響第二季的現金流,但它仍然應該是正面的,當然,因為事實上,我們仍然收集和使用庫存。

  • The second part is how do we translate it to free cash flow and here as well, part of the activity that we're taking right now is to reduce our capital expenditures. A lot of our capital expenditures last year were aimed at increasing manufacturing capacity almost everywhere around the world. That means procurement of automatic assembly lines. That means, for example, payments for contract manufacturers to take more areas and make them suitable. This is something that, of course, right now, other than the investments that we do in the U.S. manufacturing will be very much reduced. In addition to this, of course, at this time, you're investing a little bit more in areas that when you're growing, you're allowing yourself to do like maybe a little bit of a newer labs or bigger labs. And that means that also not only we will see higher cash flow from operations, we will see lower cash flow in investing activities. So overall, we should see an accelerating growth in cash.

    第二部分是我們如何將其轉化為自由現金流,我們現在正在採取的部分活動是減少我們的資本支出。去年我們的大量資本支出旨在提高世界各地幾乎所有地區的製造能力。這意味著採購自動裝配線。例如,這意味著需要向合約製造商支付費用,以佔用更多區域並使其適合。當然,目前除了我們在美國製造業的投資將大大減少之外。當然,除此之外,此時,您在成長過程中的領域要投入更多,您可以允許自己做一些更新的實驗室或更大的實驗室。這意味著我們不僅會看到營運現金流增加,而且投資活動現金流也會減少。因此總體而言,我們應該會看到現金的加速成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank.

    我們將回答德意志銀行科琳·布蘭查德的下一個問題。

  • Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

    Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

  • Could you maybe -- I mean, I know you provided a very good overview of the previous question, but would you be able to give a little bit more color about the U.S. and maybe broke it by state, which area you have seen strong demand and which 1 are waken how you -- we should be thinking about it going into next year?

    您能否——我的意思是,我知道您對上一個問題提供了非常好的概述,但是您能否提供有關美國的更多信息,並可能按州進行分類,您看到哪個地區的需求強勁我們該如何考慮明年的這件事?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So Corinne, referring to our data that we use for this purpose is the installation rate that the main indicator for us are monitoring connections to our monitoring portal. So I can say that overall, the residential, the connection rate recently for the last, call it, 10, 12 weeks, has been relatively flat. And when we break it down by state, it's showing a small decline in California and an increase in some of the other states, for instance, Puerto Rico, in other states around the nation. This is on the residential inverter point of view.

    是的。因此,Corinne,我們用於此目的的數據是安裝率,我們的主要指標是監控與我們的監控入口網站的連接。所以我可以說,總體而言,住宅的連接率最近是最後一個,即 10、12 週,相對持平。當我們按州進行細分時,發現加州略有下降,而其他一些州(例如波多黎各)和全國其他州則有所增加。這是從住宅逆變器的角度來看的。

  • For batteries, we're seeing a consistent increase in connection rate. And this is coming from California because although installation rates are down, installation of batteries are up from the historical pace because whoever or many of those that are installing in California are installing with batteries. And we also see some increase in battery installations in other states. Again, Puerto Rico is an example. So this is the residential picture where California is slightly down and other states accumulated are slightly up. And overall, the rate of installation for residential in the U.S. is relatively flat.

    對於電池,我們看到連接率持續增加。這是來自加州的,因為儘管安裝率下降了,但電池的安裝速度比歷史速度有所上升,因為在加州安裝的任何人或許多人都在安裝電池。我們也看到其他州的電池安裝量增加。波多黎各也是一個例子。因此,這就是加州的住宅情況略有下降,而其他州的累積情況略有上升。整體而言,美國住宅的安裝率相對平穩。

  • On commercial, as I mentioned also in the prepared remarks, we see in the installation, the same type of pattern that we're seeing on the sell-through data where after some period of installation rates of commercial being relatively flat. We're seeing a gradual increase, not dramatic, but still a positive trend on installation and connection of commercial projects. And as I mentioned, this is across the country with the -- specifically in the markets that are strong for commercial and it's -- we believe it's projects that have been held for some time because the people waiting for clarity on the IRA or for understanding the interest rate dynamics and the fact that there are low-cost modules and people understand that there won't be clarity on some of those elements for some time. So they're moving ahead with the projects that were on hold, and we expect this trend to continue.

    在商業方面,正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們在安裝中看到了與我們在銷售數據中看到的相同類型的模式,即在一段時間後商業安裝率相對持平。我們看到商業項目的安裝和連接逐漸增加,雖然不是急劇增加,但仍然是積極的趨勢。正如我所提到的,這是在全國範圍內進行的,特別是在商業強勁的市場中,我們相信這些項目已經舉行了一段時間,因為人們在等待 IRA 的澄清或理解利率動態以及存在低成本模組這一事實,而且人們知道其中一些要素在一段時間內不會變得清晰。因此,他們正在推進被擱置的項目,我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。

  • Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

    Corinne Jeannine Blanchard - Equity Research Analyst

  • All right. And maybe for a follow-up, switching a little bit here, but could you talk about the competition that you're seeing in the U.S. Tesla is coming out with new products. So what do you expect there? And maybe what does that mean in terms of pricing pressure over the next 3 or 4 quarters?

    好的。也許為了後續,這裡稍微改變一下,但你能談談你在美國看到的競爭嗎?特斯拉正在推出新產品。那麼你對那裡有什麼期望呢?也許這對未來 3 或 4 個季度的定價壓力意味著什麼?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. We didn't get naturally in this call into a lot of product conversation, especially not on the single phase portfolio. But we are feeling good about our current single phase portfolio. We've recently introduced some improvements, have gained a lot of positive feedback on the reliability of the recently released product -- released product and the installation times and ease of installation of both the inverters and the batteries. And we feel that we're in a good trajectory from a market share perspective in the U.S., in particular in what we call the mid-tier installers.

    是的。在這次電話會議中,我們並沒有自然地進行大量產品對話,尤其是單相產品組合。但我們對目前的單相產品組合感覺良好。我們最近推出了一些改進,並獲得了許多關於最近發布的產品的可靠性的積極反饋——發布的產品以及逆變器和電池的安裝時間和易於安裝性。我們認為,從美國市場份額的角度來看,我們正處於良好的發展軌道,特別是在我們所說的中端安裝商方面。

  • So we are -- have always been strong with a large tier. We are a bit weaker in the long tail. And we've been -- we believe we've been gaining some ground in the mid-tier. But these are incremental dynamics where we don't see a major change of pattern. And as a result, or related -- they're unrelated, we don't see major expectation for price changes in the U.S. market for the inverter offering. Batteries in general, not only in the U.S., the battery market is more in an oversupply type of dynamic. And here and there for volume purposes, we might reduce battery pricing. But on the inverters and optimizers, we see price stability and expect it to continue.

    所以我們一直很強大,擁有很大的實力。我們在長尾方面有點弱。我們相信我們已經在中端市場取得了一些進展。但這些都是漸進的動態,我們沒有看到模式的重大變化。因此,或者說,它們是不相關的,我們認為美國市場上逆變器產品的價格變化不會有重大預期。電池整體而言,不僅在美國,電池市場更處於供過於求的動態。出於批量目的,我們可能會不時降低電池價格。但在逆變器和優化器方面,我們看到價格穩定並預計它會持續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.

    我們將回答高盛的布萊恩李 (Brian Lee) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • I had a couple here. Just maybe a bigger picture because there's a lot of moving parts as well as numbers that are moving quite dramatically from what we've seen just the past couple of quarters. So maybe to start, you're talking about this normalized level of $600 million to $700 million of revenue, gross margins being $30 million to $32 million at that level, but then that's including 500 basis points. So core business is like 25% to 27% gross margin. But if I look at 2022, you were doing that level of revenues and doing higher gross margins without the IRA benefit. And even back then, you were struggling with the euro and then some component issues, but higher than 25% to 27% gross margin.

    我這裡有一對。也許只是一個更大的圖景,因為有很多變化的部分以及數字與我們過去幾季所看到的相比發生了相當大的變化。因此,也許首先,您談論的是 6 億至 7 億美元收入的標準化水平,該水平的毛利率為 3000 萬至 3200 萬美元,但這包括 500 個基點。所以核心業務的毛利率是25%到27%。但如果我看看 2022 年,你會發現,在沒有 IRA 福利的情況下,你的收入水平和毛利率都更高。即使在那時,您也受到歐元和一些零件問題的困擾,但毛利率仍高於 25% 至 27%。

  • So I don't know, it just seems like structurally, margins here are lower even if you do get back to the $600 million to $700 million revenue level. What's kind of driving that, maybe help us reconcile it a bit? And why can't you maybe take more costs out of the system? Because it feels like you're just again, margins are -- now the target is lower than what you had prior because prior, you weren't including 500 basis points from IRA?

    所以我不知道,從結構上看,即使你確實回到了 6 億至 7 億美元的收入水平,這裡的利潤率仍然較低。是什麼樣的驅動力,或許可以幫助我們協調一下?為什麼不能從系統中降低更多成本呢?因為感覺你又回來了,利潤率現在的目標低於你之前的目標,因為之前你沒有包括 IRA 的 500 個基點?

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • Sure, Brian. And thank you for the question. So in general, I think that there are 2 areas here. The 1 I will start by saying is that as we mentioned from the very beginning, the way that we are looking at this normalized level is a level that we see as a base based on the point-of-sale data that we saw in Q3 across the board, which we, by the way, believe that -- and again, we took it out of being cautious here after what we saw at least in the last 1.5 months actually or months ago. And therefore, we are still trying to evaluate whether this normalized level is really the new level that will go for several years from then -- from that point or that maybe in some cases, these should be actually a little bit of a higher rate.

    當然,布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。所以總的來說,我認為這裡有兩個領域。我首先要說的是,正如我們從一開始就提到的那樣,我們看待這個標準化水平的方式是我們將其視為基於我們在第三季度看到的銷售點數據的基礎水平順便說一句,我們相信這一點——而且,在我們至少在過去1.5 個月或幾個月前看到的情況之後,我們再次不再保持謹慎。因此,我們仍在嘗試評估這個正常化水平是否真的是從那時起幾年內將持續的新水平——從那時起,或者也許在某些情況下,這些比率實際上應該更高一點。

  • And that means that from adjusting our expense level is something that we are going to look very cautiously at each and every expense, making sure that we are making all the necessary adjustments and that we are taking all cost reduction activities that we're able to do but not returning to a situation that if the market is going up, and we did see this boom bust sometimes cycles within this market, we're finding ourselves again, having to chase after capacity and having to air-ship products because, again, this is something that we've seen in the last years as well.

    這意味著,從調整我們的費用水平開始,我們將非常謹慎地對待每一項費用,確保我們進行所有必要的調整,並採取我們能夠採取的所有成本削減活動。這樣做,但不會回到這樣的情況:如果市場上漲,我們確實看到繁榮蕭條有時會在這個市場內循環,我們會再次發現自己,不得不追逐產能並不得不空運產品,因為,再次,這也是我們在過去幾年中看到的。

  • So I would say that from the beginning, while modeling, we took a very cautious approach into how we should build our expense base and how we are going to operate the company, assuming that this is not necessarily the level that we will see 2 or 3 quarters down the road. It doesn't mean -- and I think that that's a big difference between modeling and actually going into the real-world assumption, it doesn't mean that we will not do whatever effort needed in order to make sure that we are indeed capitalizing on every cost reduction activity that we can do. But we wanted to be a little bit more cautious in modeling here. So that's, I would call it, from the very beginning, the limitation of the model itself.

    因此,我想說,從一開始,在建模時,我們就如何建立費用基礎以及如何運營公司採取了非常謹慎的態度,假設這不一定是我們將看到的水平 2 或沿著這條路走了三個季度。這並不意味著——我認為建模和實際進入現實世界的假設之間存在很大差異,這並不意味著我們不會採取任何必要的努力來確保我們確實在利用我們可以做的每一項降低成本的活動。但我們希望在此建模時更加謹慎。所以,我從一開始就稱之為模型本身的限制。

  • The second element that we need to take here is the fact that we do see that our commercial percentage within our portfolio continues to grow. As mentioned before, in this quarter, 66% of the megawatts shipped was actually commercial product. This is the record high that we see. Maybe it's a little bit tilted towards commercial because of the fact that these were products that we were lacking because of components before. But still, we do see that, at least in the commercial applications we're getting stronger, our offering is good, and we're growing. And we wanted to give a little bit of attention to this as well.

    我們需要考慮的第二個因素是,我們確實看到我們的商業份額在我們的投資組合中持續成長。如前所述,本季出貨量的 66% 實際上是商業產品。這是我們看到的歷史新高。也許它有點偏向商業,因為這些是我們之前由於組件而缺乏的產品。但我們仍然看到,至少在商業應用方面,我們正在變得更強大,我們的產品很好,而且我們正在成長。我們也想對此給予一點關注。

  • And the last thing that's related here is the fact that we do expect that we will continue to see maybe a little bit more growth in other areas that will allow us to grow a little bit further like new products. And again, while we don't put the revenue here being conservative, these are usually products that are characterized with at least at the beginning, lower gross margin. So in general, I would say that we try to be here a little bit more conservative in the way that we are modeling things. We will be making every effort to adjust to the new level as we see it. And of course, we will learn as long as we're moving. And by the way, we intend to continue and give you in the next calls a little bit of color about how do we see the normalized level because we do believe that we will gather more information. And this increase in commercial that will also allow us, by the way, to increase the revenue base is something that we see. We -- in general, I can tell you that we're aiming to get, of course, to the highest profitability possible and higher margins possible. And this will be our action for the next 2 to 3 quarters.

    最後一個與這裡相關的事實是,我們確實預計我們將繼續看到其他領域的更多成長,這將使我們能夠像新產品一樣進一步成長。再說一遍,雖然我們在這裡的收入並不是保守的,但這些產品通常至少在開始時具有較低的毛利率。所以總的來說,我想說的是,我們在建模方面嘗試更加保守一點。我們將盡一切努力適應我們所看到的新水平。當然,只要我們在移動,我們就會學習。順便說一句,我們打算繼續在下一次電話會議中向您提供一些有關我們如何看待標準化水平的信息,因為我們確實相信我們會收集更多信息。順便說一句,我們看到商業廣告的增加也將使我們增加收入基礎。總的來說,我可以告訴你,我們的目標當然是獲得盡可能高的獲利能力和更高的利潤率。這將是我們未來 2 到 3 個季度的行動。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • I appreciate that additional context. And then just maybe kind of a follow-up to some of the earlier questions. I could see investors growing concern that this is more than just an inventory correction given the magnitude and also the duration. Like how do you think about the share position here, whether in U.S. or Europe or both, like can you provide some evidence or data points or anything that gives you the comfort that this is everyone going through the same correction versus maybe there is some share loss that you guys are experiencing?

    我很欣賞額外的背景。然後也許是對之前一些問題的後續。我可以看到投資者越來越擔心,考慮到其規模和持續時間,這不僅僅是庫存調整。例如你如何看待這裡的股票狀況,無論是在美國還是歐洲或兩者,你能否提供一些證據或數據點或任何讓你感到安慰的東西,即每個人都在經歷同樣的調整,而不是可能有一些股票你們正在經歷的損失?

  • And one of the things I guess, we hear a lot about is -- there are 2 peers like SMA and Sungrow who have had recent updates that were relatively positive. I know they're not all positive in the inverter space these days, but just maybe give us a sense of what you see out there, data-wise, feedback-wise, that gives you comfort, it's not a share issue at all.

    我想,我們經常聽到的一件事是——像 SMA 和 Sungrow 這樣的兩個同行最近的更新相對積極。我知道這些天他們在逆變器領域並不都是積極的,但也許只是讓我們了解你所看到的情況,數據方面,反饋方面,這讓你感到安慰,這根本不是分享問題。

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Brian. Obviously, it's something that we look at -- we look at it very closely. And I'll give you a data point that is -- it's subjective and it's worth what it is. And focusing on the markets that we serve. Obviously, we don't serve the utility market, and we don't -- so some of the names that you're referring to are related to dynamics in the utility market that are different. But we recently sampled with one of the largest European distributors and I'll take a step back, actually.

    是的。謝謝,布萊恩。顯然,這是我們正在關注的事情——我們非常仔細地關注它。我會給你一個數據點——它是主觀的,但它是有價值的。並專注於我們服務的市場。顯然,我們不為公用事業市場提供服務,而且我們也沒有——所以您提到的一些名稱與不同的公用事業市場動態相關。但我們最近與歐洲最大的經銷商之一進行了抽樣,實際上我會退一步。

  • Related also to what I said in my earlier comments, in the latter part of 2022, we definitely sense that we were losing share just based on availability. So the demand was very strong. The demand was very strong for our products. We couldn't supply all of it. And we -- and there were installers that in the urgency to install that were long-term SolarEdge installers tried other products. We mapped that out. And once availability became less of a concern for us, we in a systematic way, in every country identify the installers that we knew based on our monitoring system have decreased their usage of SolarEdge because of lack of availability and have been going back and recovering those one by one, to be using SolarEdge once availability was no longer a constraint.

    也與我之前的評論中所說的相關,在 2022 年下半年,我們確實感覺到我們僅僅因為可用性而失去了份額。所以需求非常強烈。對我們產品的需求非常強勁。我們無法提供全部。我們以及一些安裝人員在迫切需要安裝的情況下,長期使用 SolarEdge 安裝人員嘗試了其他產品。我們對此進行了規劃。一旦可用性不再是我們關心的問題,我們就會以系統化的方式,在每個國家/地區識別安裝人員,我們根據我們的監控系統了解,由於缺乏可用性而減少了SolarEdge 的使用,並且一直在回溯並恢復這些安裝人員一旦可用性不再是限制,就使用 SolarEdge。

  • And recently, we sat with one of the largest distributors, pan-European distributor and went through their share picture from an inverter suppliers point of view. And this also relates to something that I mentioned in the call last quarter, that during periods of shortage, people bring on and they widen their line card to include more brands. And then as the market goes back to normal, they reduce the line card. And with this distributor, going country by country, overall, we saw -- they reported an increase of our share in their sales in 2023. This was in the first 8 months of 2023 relative to the same period in 2022. So we've been looking at that at a high level of detail.

    最近,我們與最大的分銷商之一、泛歐洲分銷商坐在一起,從逆變器供應商的角度審視了他們的股票情況。這也與我在上個季度的電話會議中提到的一件事有關,即在短缺時期,人們會加入並擴大產品線以納入更多品牌。然後,隨著市場恢復正常,他們就會減少線路卡。透過這個經銷商,逐個國家,總體而言,我們看到——他們報告說我們在2023 年的銷售額中所佔的份額有所增加。這是2023 年前8 個月相對於2022 年同期的情況。所以我們一直在高度詳細地研究這一點。

  • And although there are fluctuations and as I said, we haven't recovered all of the share that we lost due to availability in the second half of 2022, we are optimistic about the signs that we've been seeing since the beginning of 2023 and recovering that share. So we don't see that as part of the dynamics that are related to the inventory situation that we described.

    儘管存在波動,正如我所說,我們尚未恢復因 2022 年下半年可用性而損失的所有份額,但我們對自 2023 年初以來看到的跡象感到樂觀,恢復該份額。因此,我們不認為這是與我們描述的庫存狀況相關的動態的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的科林魯施。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Guys, can you talk a little bit about incremental geographies that you guys might be able to move into that are growing and a healthy rate, particularly in the rest of the world or other geographies that you're ending up exiting out of here in this transition?

    夥計們,你們能談談你們可能能夠進入的增量地區嗎?這些地區正在以健康的速度增長,特別是在世界其他地區或您最終要離開這裡的其他地區。過渡?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think we spoke about Europe and it's not necessarily -- there are some markets that are beginning to evolve that you would have never mentioned their names before, and I addressed some of them in the past, like Slovenia or Romania, and the few places like that. And they're usually influenced from some central country nearby. For instance, in some of these, it's mostly influenced from Italy. And these are slowly evolving markets and from our central location, again, in this case, Italy, we will oversee or we will be active in these markets as well. There are other markets that are not -- they were -- they did exist before but they're picking up recently. And then we increase our presence in those markets. And the glaring cases like that or countries like Spain and Greece, by the way, years back in 2012, we had market share in Greece that was probably, I don't know, 60% or 70%. And then the market was quiet for many years, and now it's back. We have a huge installed base in Greece and our growth rate in Spain is very, very high, but it's still relatively small numbers.

    是的,我認為我們談到了歐洲,但不一定——有一些市場正在開始發展,你以前從未提到過它們的名字,我過去談到過其中一些市場,比如斯洛維尼亞或羅馬尼亞,還有很少有這樣的地方。他們通常受到附近一些中部國家的影響。例如,其中一些主要受到義大利的影響。這些都是緩慢發展的市場,從我們的中心位置(在本例中為義大利)開始,我們將監督或積極參與這些市場。還有其他市場以前確實存在,但最近正在回升。然後我們增加在這些市場的影響力。順便說一句,早在 2012 年,我們在希臘的市佔率可能是(我不知道)60% 或 70%。然後市場平靜了很多年,現在又回來了。我們在希臘擁有龐大的安裝基礎,我們在西班牙的成長率非常非常高,但數量仍然相對較小。

  • So there are -- like there are a few countries where it's a completely new dynamic, and there are some countries that were small markets that are beginning to grow a bit [faster], and those would be the examples within Europe. Outside of Europe, there's a lot of talk in Brazil and definitely, our momentum in Brazil is positive. In Asia, Thailand is a market that is growing quickly. Taiwan is a market that is growing quickly. The Philippines is a market that is growing and evolving. And at the same time, for instance, we realized that the Korean market is not what we expected it to be, and we reduced the level of our activity in the Korean market.

    因此,有些國家是一個全新的動態,有些國家是小市場,但開始成長得更快一些,這些就是歐洲的例子。在歐洲以外,巴西有許多討論,毫無疑問,我們在巴西的勢頭是積極的。在亞洲,泰國是一個成長迅速的市場。台灣是一個快速成長的市場。菲律賓是一個不斷成長和發展的市場。同時,例如,我們意識到韓國市場並不是我們預期的那樣,我們減少了在韓國市場的活動量。

  • So there are opportunities in these markets. But I think under the current circumstances and interest rate environment, the Europe and the U.S. are much larger in terms of the potential to gain share and see improvement in demand compared to growth in some of these markets, although we are benefiting from it.

    因此,這些市場存在機會。但我認為,在當前情況和利率環境下,歐洲和美國在獲得份額的潛力方面要大得多,並且與其中一些市場的成長相比,需求有所改善,儘管我們正在從中受益。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst

  • That's super helpful. And then the follow-up is really about the internal battery cell manufacturing and how that's ramping up and given the sell-through on the batteries and some of the inventory that you're mentioning there, how you're dealing with and expecting to manage your third-party sale agreements along with that internal production?

    這非常有幫助。然後後續行動實際上是關於內部電池製造以及如何提高電池的銷售量以及您在那裡提到的一些庫存,以及您如何處理和期望管理您的第三方銷售協議以及內部生產?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think the -- I'll try to answer in 2 ways. As you know, our current offering is based on -- of our residential batteries is based on third-party cells. And we intended to ramp the factoring and shift over to using the sales from the factory for that -- for offering to these markets. At the current time, considering the lower installation rate, it's increasing, but it's lower than what we anticipated. We don't expect that shift to happen in 2024. And in 2024, our residential battery offering will continue to be based on our third-party cells. And meanwhile, we're ramping the factory and we will continue to ramp the factory and sell those sales as we ramp to customers of our storage business that some of them are historical that we've been selling to 2 years, and now we will have more capacity and a better cost structure. And some of them are new customers of nonsolar related energy storage or high C-rate cell applications. So in 2024, our solar attached single-phase batteries will be -- continue to be based on the third-party cell supply that we have today.

    是的。我想——我會嘗試用兩種方式來回答。如您所知,我們目前的產品是基於—我們的住宅電池基於第三方電池。我們打算擴大保理業務,並轉向利用工廠的銷售來向這些市場提供產品。目前,考慮到安裝率較低,它正在增加,但低於我們的預期。我們預計這種轉變不會在 2024 年發生。到 2024 年,我們的住宅電池產品將繼續基於我們的第三方電池。同時,我們正在擴大工廠,我們將繼續擴大工廠規模,並在我們向儲存業務的客戶傾斜時出售這些銷售額,其中一些是我們已經銷售了兩年的歷史產品,現在我們將擁有更大的產能和更好的成本結構。其中一些是非太陽能相關儲能或高倍率電池應用的新客戶。因此,到 2024 年,我們的太陽能單相電池將繼續基於我們目前擁有的第三方電池供應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question from Mark Strouse of JPMorgan.

    我們將回答摩根大通的馬克‧史特勞斯提出的下一個問題。

  • Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

    Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

  • Two of them, please. I think the first one, just following up on Brian's question. It kind of sounds like the distributor cancellations, the order cancellations and delays that you saw accelerated in the latter half of the quarter. Has that now stabilized? I'm just trying to get a sense of -- you mentioned some upside risk to that $600 million to $700 million. What gives you comfort that there's no further downside to that number?

    請來兩個。我認為第一個,只是跟進布萊恩的問題。聽起來有點像您在本季後半段看到的經銷商取消、訂單取消和延誤加速的情況。現在已經穩定了嗎?我只是想了解一下——您提到了 6 億至 7 億美元的一些上行風險。是什麼讓您感到安心,因為這個數字不會再進一步的下降?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So maybe Mark, first at data point. Actually, our highest ever sell-through month globally or actually in Europe, ever was June. So in June of 2023, we reached a record or our distributors reached a record of sell-through of our products. So -- and then July, the sell-through was a bit lower, but July is typically a vacation month in Europe. So the shift in pattern was around the summer and the picture got clear, as mentioned during the -- to our distributors and then to us in the second half of the quarter. And that is where the installation rate decline took place. And it's -- and as we said, it's from a quarter-over-quarter perspective, from Q3 to Q2 across all of Europe, if I remember correctly, the number was 22% quarter-over-quarter reduction, although it was still higher than the same quarter of last year.

    是的。所以也許馬克,首先在數據點。事實上,我們在全球或實際上在歐洲有史以來銷量最高的月份是六月。因此,在 2023 年 6 月,我們達到了一個記錄,或者我們的經銷商達到了我們產品的銷售記錄。因此,然後是 7 月,銷量略低,但 7 月通常是歐洲的假期月份。因此,模式的轉變是在夏季前後,情況變得清晰起來,正如我們的經銷商和本季下半年的我們所提到的那樣。這就是安裝率下降的地方。正如我們所說,這是從季度環比的角度來看,整個歐洲從第三季度到第二季度,如果我沒記錯的話,這個數字環比減少了 22%,儘管仍然更高與去年同期相比。

  • We are looking at installation rates because the indicator of sell-through, we receive it at a later date until the -- all of the distributors collect their information and provide it to us. The indicator that is less accurate, but we have a much more live view is the indicator of installation rate and connection to the monitoring. And the connection to the monitoring in recent weeks in the last couple of months in Europe has been up in places like Germany, Austria, Switzerland, some of the other countries and has been down in the Netherlands as we reported.

    我們正在關注安裝率,因為這是銷售率的指標,我們稍後會收到它,直到所有經銷商收集他們的資訊並將其提供給我們。不太準確但我們有更多即時視圖的指標是安裝率和與監控的連接的指標。正如我們所報導的那樣,過去幾個月,歐洲的監控連接在德國、奧地利、瑞士和其他一些國家有所增加,而在荷蘭則有所下降。

  • But overall, the installation rate has been relatively stable across Europe since the drop that we saw towards the end of the summer and the end of the third quarter, and going into the fourth quarter. Now is that -- does that give confidence that the -- it won't go down further or when will it begin to pick up in that rate, that obviously, we have judgment but not through visibility, but this is the data point on which we are setting the baseline scenario in the revenue -- the stabilized revenue projection that we gave.

    但總體而言,自夏末和第三季末以及進入第四季以來,整個歐洲的安裝率一直相對穩定。現在是——這是否讓人有信心——它不會進一步下跌,或者什麼時候會開始以這個速度回升,顯然,我們有判斷,但不是通過可見性,但這是關於的數據點我們正在設定收入的基準情境-我們給出的穩定收入預測。

  • Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

    Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

  • And then just a follow-up. Can you talk about your appetite to kind of lean into your balance sheet during this macro downturn? I mean you've got -- because of your balance sheet you might have somewhere with all the -- some of your competitors may not have. Can you talk about the appetite to lean into R&D to potentially look at some M&A so that you're even better positioned coming out of this downturn competitively?

    然後只是後續行動。您能談談您在宏觀經濟低迷期間對資產負債表進行調整的意願嗎?我的意思是,由於你的資產負債表,你可能擁有一些競爭對手可能沒有的東西。您能否談談對研發的興趣,以潛在地考慮一些併購,以便您在走出這場低迷時期時處於更有利的競爭地位?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • So I'll use the opportunity, Mark, to give a broader perspective that it's not directly related to the balance sheet. It's partially related to the balance sheet and partially related to the P&L. With all that's going on, it's important to put in perspective that we are firm believers in -- not only in the long term but also the midterm trajectory of this market. And the core markets that we serve, which are rooftop solar of residential and C&I. And not only in the long-term growth of these markets for PV and inverters and optimizers, but also the evolution of the broader solutions that we're seeing that include batteries, EV chargers, smart energy management software to manage the grid services applications, cyber protection. So at the highest level for us in terms of priority is to continue and develop the portfolio products that is going to serve these markets and put us in the leadership or keep us in the leadership position that we are.

    因此,馬克,我將利用這個機會提供更廣泛的視角,即它與資產負債表沒有直接關係。它部分與資產負債表相關,部分與損益表相關。隨著這一切的發生,重要的是要正確看待我們所堅信的觀點——不僅是長期的,而且是這個市場的中期軌跡。我們服務的核心市場是住宅和工商業的屋頂太陽能。不僅是光伏、逆變器和優化器市場的長期成長,而且我們看到的更廣泛解決方案的發展,包括電池、電動車充電器、用於管理電網服務應用的智慧能源管理軟體,網路保護。因此,對我們來說,最高優先事項是繼續開發服務這些市場的產品組合,使我們處於領先地位或保持目前的領先地位。

  • And we see this situation and the modeling that we gave also as a transient that is -- not sure how long it will take and when it will happen, but in a market that is attractive that has long-term value and that we are very well positioned to lead. And that includes the answer to the question that you have and where we see the potential to strengthen, accelerate or improve our differentiation along those served markets, we will use also our balance sheet to do so, definitely.

    我們認為這種情況和我們給出的模型也只是暫時的——不確定需要多長時間以及何時會發生,但在一個有吸引力的市場中,具有長期價值,而且我們非常處於領先地位。這包括您提出的問題的答案,以及我們認為有潛力加強、加速或改善我們在這些服務市場上的差異化的地方,我們肯定也會利用我們的資產負債表來做到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • Really appreciate the opportunity. Look, just to kind of circle back here to Square One, can we recap a little bit about how we got here, right? I mean, I know we are talking very specifically about the trajectory of the recovery. But can we step back a little bit and understand you talked a moment ago about June '23 being a high watermark. But obviously, there was some share insider transactions during the summer. And then obviously, things rapidly deteriorated. How do we get confidence on the outlook here? Can you walk us through a little bit more of the sort of month-by-month playbook from that June '23 watermark to where we are today, if you will, through the course of the year. Obviously, how it gives you the confidence in 4Q, but just how this happens so swiftly at such a pace that we didn't see this or presumably you guys didn't identify it earlier and it's coming.

    真的很感謝這個機會。聽著,回到一號廣場,我們可以回顧一下我們是如何走到這一步的嗎?我的意思是,我知道我們正在非常具體地討論復甦的軌跡。但我們能否退後一步,理解一下您剛才談到的 23 日 6 月是一個高水位線。但顯然,夏季期間存在一些股票內線交易。顯然,事情迅速惡化。我們如何對這裡的前景充滿信心?如果你願意的話,你能否向我們介紹一下從 23 年 6 月的水印到我們今天的情況的逐月劇本,貫穿這一年。顯然,它如何讓你對第四季度充滿信心,但這種情況發生得如此之快,以至於我們沒有看到這一點,或者想必你們沒有提前發現它,它即將到來。

  • Again, I just really want to step back and kind of highlight that and how swiftly the cycle moved? And what are the parameters that perhaps lessons learned that you guys would identify today after what sort of transpired here? If you don't mind, and I appreciate your thoughtfulness around this.

    再說一次,我真的想退後一步,強調這一點,以及週期的進展有多快?在發生了什麼樣的事情之後,你們今天可能會確定哪些參數?如果您不介意的話,我很欣賞您對此的體貼。

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • Yes, Julien, thank you for the question. So I'll start maybe by going back to Q1 because we need to understand that again this pattern that we see is coming after 2022 that was a COVID year. And when we're trying to analyze the business and see where is it going, we're looking at, I would say, 3 major sets of data. The first one is, of course, how much we're shipping and where we're shipping it. Second is, what is the point of sale data that we see coming out from our distributors and as mentioned by Zvi, it's something that we measure on a monthly basis. And then we're looking at the inventory levels that are basically a result of these 2 things.

    是的,朱利安,謝謝你的提問。因此,我可能會先回到第一季度,因為我們需要再次了解,我們看到的這種模式將在 2022 年新冠疫情之後出現。當我們嘗試分析業務並了解其發展方向時,我會說,我們正在查看 3 組主要數據。第一個當然是我們要運送多少以及我們要運送到哪裡。其次,我們從經銷商看到的銷售點數據是什麼,正如 Zvi 所提到的,這是我們每月衡量的數據。然後我們看看庫存水準基本上是這兩件事造成的。

  • Up until the very beginning of Q1, we saw that our shipping is almost one-to-one correlated and merged with the point-of-sale data that we saw from our distributors. So that means that on one hand, you saw very little inventory days in the channel. If you recall from our calls at that time, we said that in some cases, we saw close to 0 inventory of 3-phase products, and we sometimes saw 1 or 1.5 months of a single-phase product. And this is something that we have looked at consistently.

    直到第一季初,我們看到我們的運輸幾乎是一對一關聯的,並與我們從分銷商看到的銷售點數據合併。因此,這意味著一方面,您在頻道中看到的庫存天數非常少。如果你還記得我們當時的電話,我們說過,在某些情況下,我們看到三相產品的庫存接近 0,有時我們看到單相產品的庫存為 1 或 1.5 個月。這是我們一直在關注的事情。

  • At the beginning of Q1, we started to see a relief when it comes to our ability to manufacture single-phase products and we saw gradual relief that actually materialized in full only in Q3 this year in our ability to provide 3-phase products, especially the commercial products. So what we saw is that during Q1 and into Q2 and Q3, we came back to the normality of a growing market where our shipment into the channel are lower than the -- sorry, going up are higher than the actual point of sale. But when we took the 2 ratios, our sales into the channels and the point-of-sale data, we saw that the overall days inventory on hand are ranging between 60 to 90 days, which is the normal level that we would usually see.

    在第一季初,我們開始看到我們製造單相產品的能力有所緩解,並且我們看到了逐漸的緩解,實際上直到今年第三季度我們提供三相產品的能力才完全實現,特別是商業產品。因此,我們看到的是,在第一季、第二季和第三季度,我們回到了成長市場的常態,我們進入通路的出貨量低於——抱歉,上漲高於實際銷售點。但當我們考慮這兩個比率、通路銷售和銷售點資料時,我們發現現有庫存總天數在 60 到 90 天之間,這是我們通常看到的正常水準。

  • And by the way, it depends based on the distributors, some of them would like to be at a higher level because they're less efficient or more a distributor and some will be more tight. But we started to see a very nice correlation between the 2, we saw a very steep increase in the point-of-sale data, sell-through data. And therefore, we felt comfortable with the numbers -- with the numbers that we're shipping. And we continue to monitor all the time the inventory on [hand days].

    順便說一句,這取決於經銷商,其中一些人希望處於更高的水平,因為他們效率較低,或者更像經銷商,而有些人會更緊張。但我們開始看到兩者之間有非常好的相關性,我們看到銷售點數據和銷售數據急劇增加。因此,我們對這些數字感到滿意——對我們正在發貨的數字。我們將繼續監控[手工天數]的庫存。

  • Now when we're getting the reports on a monthly basis, usually, it happens around the 20th of the following months. So I would say that when -- we started July, we -- at the 20th of July, approximately got the June numbers from Europe that were significantly higher than everything that we've seen before. These were record high numbers. And as such, our customers continue to make orders and -- or to accept orders because the backlog was already there. If you remember, we had a very large backlog.

    現在,當我們每月收到報告時,通常會在接下來的幾個月的 20 號左右發生。所以我想說,當我們從 7 月開始時,我們在 7 月 20 日,大約得到了來自歐洲的 6 月數據,這些數據明顯高於我們之前看到的所有數據。這些數字創下歷史新高。因此,我們的客戶繼續下訂單,或接受訂單,因為積壓已經存在。如果你還記得的話,我們有大量的積壓訂單。

  • Comes the end of August, we are receiving the July data, which is lower than June, but this is again typical because we see a lot of vacations happening in Europe around this time. And we see a decline. But by the way, not a huge decline, but we do see a decline. Usually, August numbers are either flat or, I would say, relatively similar to the ones that we see in July. So comes the end after the 20th of September that we're getting the August numbers from Europe and the United States, and we see that August is down compared to July, again, not dramatically down, but it is down. But at that time, this is very end of September, our distributors start to see -- and by the way, we do not, but they start to see that September is not materializing as they expected.

    到了八月底,我們收到了 7 月的數據,低於 6 月,但這又是典型的情況,因為我們看到歐洲在這個時候有很多假期。我們看到了下降。但順便說一句,雖然不是大幅下降,但我們確實看到了下降。通常,八月份的數字要么持平,要么與我們在七月看到的數字相對相似。 9 月 20 日結束後,我們從歐洲和美國獲得了 8 月的數據,我們看到 8 月與 7 月相比有所下降,同樣,不是大幅下降,但確實是下降了。但那時,已經是九月末了,我們的經銷商開始看到——順便說一句,我們沒有看到,但他們開始看到九月並沒有像他們預期的那樣實現。

  • And usually, the pattern that we used to see over the last, I would say, several years, is that usually you see a slower July and August compared to June, but then you see a jump in September. Actually, we were told by them that the expectation is to see a very strong September and they acted upon this. But when they started to see that September is not materializing, this is the last, I would say, 2 weeks of the quarter. We saw an increasing declines of orders and a much more pressure to delay orders.

    通常,我們在過去幾年中看到的模式是,與六月相比,通常你會看到七月和八月的速度較慢,但隨後你會看到九月的跳躍。事實上,他們告訴我們,期望看到一個非常強勁的九月,他們也據此採取了行動。但當他們開始發現 9 月尚未實現時,我想說,這是本季的最後兩週。我們看到訂單不斷減少,延遲訂單的壓力也越來越大。

  • And when we received actually close to, I would say, again, 15 to 20 of October, the September data, we actually found that September, for the first time for many years was lower than the actual August numbers. And this is the area that was a little bit surprising.

    當我們實際上收到接近 10 月 15 日至 20 日的 9 月數據時,我想說,我們實際上發現 9 月的數據多年來首次低於 8 月的實際數據。這就是令人有點驚訝的地方。

  • Now the result is -- and this is what is leading to our Q4 numbers and guidance is that, again, when you take the inventory levels that you see that we're continuing to grow up again because everyone until sometimes the middle of August expected to see relatively a similar behavior. Now you see that the inventory on the hand days are very, very high, much higher than the 90 days that usually are in the channels. And this is when we understood, together, by the way, with our customers that December can -- or the fourth quarter cannot look even like the 1 that was Q3 because of this decrease.

    現在的結果是——這就是導致我們第四季度數據和指導的原因,再次,當你查看庫存水平時,你會發現我們正在繼續增長,因為直到八月中旬之前每個人都預計看到相對相似的行為。現在你看到現有的庫存天數非常非常高,遠高於通路中通常的 90 天。順便說一句,此時我們與客戶一起了解到,由於這種下降,12 月可以 - 或者第四季度甚至不能像第三季度那樣。

  • The data that we're now waiting for, and again, we do not have yet is how October looks like. We believe that it's going to be better than September. I do not have any data to see how big better it is but this is the basis of our cautiousness. So as you can understand, this is a pattern where the deviation from the pattern that we used to see was something that was actually, I would say, understood in the 2 to 3 last weeks of September and not before. And that led to basically the fact that a lot of our cancellations and orders came actually at that point of time or push outs. So I hope I answered your question.

    我們現在正在等待的數據是 10 月的情況,但我們還沒有得到。我們相信這會比九月更好。我沒有任何數據可以看出它有多大,但這是我們謹慎的基礎。正如你所理解的,這種模式與我們過去看到的模式的偏差實際上是在 9 月的最後 2 到 3 週而不是之前就被理解的。這基本上導致了這樣一個事實:我們的許多取消和訂單實際上是在那個時間點或推出的。所以我希望我回答了你的問題。

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Maybe, Julien, on the topic of -- of course, the dynamic is when I described from it, but we need to learn from it. One of the elements that is meaningful that also we are talking with our distributors and how to handle is visibility into the inventory levels at the installers because what happened is part of this dynamic is of -- we're coming off of an unprecedented event in terms of the surge in demand, the lack of availability, everybody was building on inventory, including installers that typically don't take on inventory and especially inventory of products they prefer to install. Then when they slow down, they slow down their orders, but they had inventory and they consumed it and that was not visible.

    朱利安,也許,關於這個主題——當然,動態是我從中描述的,但我們需要從中學習。我們正在與經銷商討論以及如何處理的一個有意義的因素是安裝人員的庫存水平的可見性,因為所發生的事情是這種動態的一部分 - 我們正在經歷一場前所未有的事件就需求激增和缺乏可用性而言,每個人都在建立庫存,包括通常不接受庫存的安裝人員,尤其是他們喜歡安裝的產品庫存。然後,當他們放慢速度時,他們會放慢訂單速度,但他們有庫存,並且消耗了庫存,但這是看不見的。

  • So in terms of data points to add to the data that we typically track of installation rates, sell-through inventory levels at our distributors is inventory levels that our large installers, that will help have a better clarity when fluctuations occur, especially such extreme fluctuations.

    因此,就添加到我們通常追蹤安裝率的數據中的數據點而言,我們分銷商的銷售庫存水平就是我們大型安裝商的庫存水平,這將有助於在發生波動時獲得更好的清晰度,尤其是這種極端波動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Jeff Osborne of TD Cowen.

    我們將接受 TD Cowen 的 Jeff Osborne 提出的下一個問題。

  • Jeffrey David Osborne - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jeffrey David Osborne - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Two quick questions on my side. Ronen, what demand levels were assumed when you talked about a normalization of revenue at $600 million to $700 million, is that sort of flat with current levels? That was part one of the question. And part two is just, as the industry normalizes whenever that is next summer, why wouldn't there be a knife fight in terms of pricing? I know you said there was a sort of stable outlook in the quarter and in the near term and payment terms were more important to distributors. But it looks like it's a tech industry with now excess capacity. Obviously, you're rationalizing capacity. I'm not sure others will. But why wouldn't pricing go down meaningfully in the second half of the year?

    我這邊有兩個簡單的問題。 Ronen,當您談到收入正常化為 6 億至 7 億美元時,假設的需求水平是多少,這與當前水平持平嗎?這是問題的一部分。第二部分只是,隨著產業在明年夏天正常化,為什麼在定價方面不會出現激烈的競爭呢?我知道您說過本季和近期的前景穩定,付款條件對分銷商來說更重要。但看起來這是一個產能過剩的科技業。顯然,您正在合理化容量。我不確定其他人會不會。但為什麼下半年價格沒有大幅下降呢?

  • Ronen Faier - CFO

    Ronen Faier - CFO

  • So first of all, I'll start by saying that, yes, as you mentioned, the way that we modeled the normalized level is taking the point-of-sale data for the last 3 months as it is. And therefore, yes, if there's going to be recovery in this, then we can see a higher number. I would say that we do take in our numbers also an assumption about changes in pricing. As you have mentioned, right now, we did not change our prices within Q3. And I'm not sure that we will do anything on the inverter side, at least in Q4 given the fact that we believe that with the inventory levels that you see right now, there is almost 0 impact on changing pricing. First of all, because nobody is taking orders. So if they're taking very little orders, no reason to change the pricing because everyone is selling the inventory that they have, plus we do not see that it can actually change their behavior along the elasticity of demand curves.

    首先,我首先要說的是,是的,正如您所提到的,我們對標準化水準進行建模的方式是採用過去 3 個月的銷售點資料。因此,是的,如果這種情況會有所復甦,那麼我們可以看到更高的數字。我想說的是,我們確實在數據中考慮了有關定價變化的假設。正如您所提到的,目前我們在第三季內沒有改變價格。我不確定我們會在逆變器方面採取任何措施,至少在第四季度是這樣,因為我們相信,按照您現在看到的庫存水平,價格變化的影響幾乎為零。首先,因為沒有人接受命令。因此,如果他們接受的訂單很少,就沒有理由改變定價,因為每個人都在出售他們擁有的庫存,而且我們看不到它實際上可以改變他們沿著需求曲線彈性的行為。

  • So I must say that moving forward, we do assume that prices will have to be adjusted in some places. It is going to be very much related to the offering that we see, for example, the more markets are moving to dynamic rates. These are going actually to products that are a little bit maybe more expensive because of the fact that they're allowing better capabilities. We do believe that maybe in batteries, we will have to adjust down prices because when we look at the competition today, yes, our prices, I would say, are not the cheapest that you see in the market.

    所以我必須說,展望未來,我們確實假設某些地方的價格必須調整。這將與我們看到的產品有很大關係,例如,越來越多的市場轉向動態利率。這些產品實際上可能會更貴一些,因為它們具有更好的功能。我們確實相信,也許在電池方面,我們將不得不調整價格,因為當我們看看今天的競爭時,是的,我想說,我們的價格並不是市場上最便宜的。

  • And I can tell you that in our stabilization number, there is a baked-in assumption on possible price adjustment that we will need or may need to implement. The reason that we put in there even if we're not sure if we'll have to take them, as I mentioned in my answer to Brian, after this unprecedented event that we're missing a quarter never happened this company history, we wanted also to be very cautious in the way that we're modeling.

    我可以告訴你,在我們的穩定數據中,有一個關於我們需要或可能需要實施的可能價格調整的內建假設。正如我在回答布萊恩時提到的,即使我們不確定是否必須接受它們,我們還是把它們放在那裡的原因是,在我們錯過了四分之一的史無前例的事件之後,這家公司的歷史從未發生過,我們也希望在建模的方式上非常謹慎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Jonathan Kees of Daiwa Capital Markets.

    我們將回答大和資本市場公司 (Daiwa Capital Markets) 的喬納森·基斯 (Jonathan Kees) 提出的下一個問題。

  • Jonathan Allan Kees - Senior Research Analyst

    Jonathan Allan Kees - Senior Research Analyst

  • So I wanted to ask regarding, I guess, the call up in Israel. You talked about it's about 11% of your staff there and 6% worldwide. That seems kind of to me, I guess somewhat significant, maybe not material but significant. I wanted to ask, is that the call more across the board? Or especially in Israel, is that more like with the -- your business folks, your professionals, your engineers, obviously, under 40 and male or is it across the board in terms of just occupational and the professional level. I'll leave it with that, and I'll take the rest of my questions offline.

    所以我想問一下,我想,是關於以色列的徵召。您談到,大約有 11% 的員工在當地,6% 的員工在全球。這對我來說似乎有點重要,我想有些重要,也許不是實質的,但很重要。我想問一下,這樣的稱呼比較全面嗎?或者特別是在以色列,這更像是——你的商務人士、你的專業人士、你的工程師,顯然是40歲以下的男性,還是就職業和專業水平而言是全面的。我就這樣吧,剩下的問題我會離線回答。

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So a quick correction, it's male and female. So it's not -- it's even in that regard. Our manufacturing and business activities are mostly operated outside of Israel and not dependent on anything significant in Israel, not infrastructure and not people. And that's why this does not have any impact on our execution towards our customers.

    是的。快速更正一下,這是男性和女性。所以它不是——甚至在這方面也是如此。我們的製造和商業活動大部分在以色列境外運營,不依賴以色列的任何重要設施,不依賴基礎設施,也不依賴人員。這就是為什麼這不會對我們對客戶的執行產生任何影響。

  • From an R&D perspective, there is an impact, as I mentioned. The caught-up is quite evenly distributed across the different departments and that gives us the ability to reallocate and move around people to make sure that the main projects are staffed with critical mass to move them forward. And it's actually aligned with the business discussion that we're having over here that this type of business environment is the right one to focus and to identify what are the real key drivers of the business and put the right quantity and quality of people on them. So that's what we're doing for both reasons. So it's -- I think it's -- in that regard, what is important to execute in the business, we will -- we are able to support without interruption.

    正如我所提到的,從研發的角度來看,這是有影響的。趕上的人相當均勻地分佈在不同部門,這使我們能夠重新分配和調動人員,以確保主要項目配備足夠的人員來推動它們前進。實際上,這與我們在這裡進行的業務討論是一致的,即這種類型的業務環境是正確的關注點,並確定什麼是業務的真正關鍵驅動因素,並為其配備適當數量和質量的人員。這就是我們出於兩個原因所做的事情。因此,我認為,在這方面,在業務中執行重要的事情,我們將能夠不間斷地提供支援。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩爾科科。

  • Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Associate

    Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Associate

  • I just want to discuss some of these backlog cancellations and apologies if you already answered this. But can you maybe just walk through your decision-making process on why you decided to accommodate those requests? And I guess how do we gain comfort that this is truly a one-off in nature? And I guess, is there anything that you got in return, maybe concessions on payment terms for future orders or just to make it maybe a little bit more mutually beneficial in the long run?

    我只想討論其中一些積壓的取消,如果您已經回答了這個問題,我深表歉意。但是您能否簡單介紹一下您的決策過程,了解為什麼您決定滿足這些要求?我想我們如何才能確信這確實是一次性的?我想,你們有什麼回報,也許是對未來訂單的付款條件的讓步,或者只是為了從長遠來看更加互惠互利?

  • Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

    Zvi Lando - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll keep it short, but we've been operating in Europe since 2010. We grew our position and market share in multiple countries through building long-term relationships and delivering quality products and services. And we've done this with a network of partners, both distribution partners and installation partners across all of these countries. And we intend to continue and do that with them for years to come. So that is at the core of our decision process and consideration is that this is the long-term huge market. These are quality players that we've been working with and we will continue to do so. And fluctuations in ups and downs and helping each other out during critical times and not sticking to the letter of the law to force them to take inventory that they don't need and put them in a financial hazard, we thought that's not the right thing to do as part of our long-term view of the future of the market and where we are within that market.

    是的。簡而言之,我們自 2010 年以來一直在歐洲開展業務。透過建立長期關係和提供優質產品和服務,我們提高了在多個國家的地位和市場份額。我們透過合作夥伴網路完成了這項任務,其中包括所有這些國家的分銷合作夥伴和安裝合作夥伴。我們打算在未來幾年繼續與他們一起這樣做。因此,這是我們決策過程的核心,考慮因素是這是長期的巨大市場。這些都是我們一直在合作的優秀球員,我們將繼續這樣做。起伏波動,關鍵時刻互相幫助,不遵守法律條文,強迫他們去庫存他們不需要的庫存,讓他們陷入財務危險,我們認為這不是正確的事情這是我們對市場未來以及我們在該市場中所處位置的長期看法的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this does conclude today's question-and-answer session as well as our call for this afternoon. You may now disconnect your lines, and everyone, have a great day.

    今天的問答環節以及我們今天下午的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝大家有個愉快的一天。