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Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Rex, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Steelcase Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call.
早上好。我的名字是雷克斯,今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加 Steelcase 2023 財年第二季度電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Mr. O'Meara, you may begin your conference.
O'Meara 先生,你可以開始你的會議了。
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Thank you, Rex. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the recap of our second quarter fiscal 2023 financial results. Here with me today are Sara Armbruster, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Sylvester, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our second quarter earnings release, which crossed the wires yesterday, is accessible on our website. This conference call is being webcast, and this webcast is a copyrighted production of Steelcase Inc. A replay of this webcast will be posted to ir.steelcase.com later today.
謝謝你,雷克斯。大家,早安。感謝您與我們一起回顧我們 2023 財年第二季度的財務業績。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Sara Armbruster;以及我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Dave Sylvester。我們昨天發布的第二季度收益報告可在我們的網站上訪問。本次電話會議正在進行網絡直播,此網絡廣播是 Steelcase Inc. 的版權作品。今天晚些時候,將在 ir.steelcase.com 上發布此網絡廣播的重播。
Our discussion today may include references to non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and details regarding the risks associated with the use of forward-looking statements are included in our earnings release, and we are incorporating by reference into this conference call the text of our safe harbor statement included in the release. Following our prepared remarks, we will respond to questions from investors and analysts.
我們今天的討論可能包括對非公認會計原則財務指標和前瞻性陳述的引用。對最具可比性的 GAAP 措施的對賬以及與使用前瞻性陳述相關的風險的詳細信息包含在我們的收益發布中,我們通過引用將發布中包含的我們的安全港聲明文本納入本次電話會議。在我們準備好的評論之後,我們將回答投資者和分析師的問題。
I will now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sara Armbruster.
我現在將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Sara Armbruster。
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share that our earnings this quarter were better than expected, and we've delivered significantly higher order growth in the Americas than the rest of our industry over the past year. Our win rates remain strong and halfway through the year, our financial results are on target. These results are due in part to the great work our teams are doing to implement pricing actions designed to combat the continued inflationary pressure our industry is experiencing, and I'm proud of the progress we're making.
謝謝,邁克,大家早上好。我很高興地分享我們本季度的收益好於預期,並且在過去一年中,我們在美洲的訂單增長明顯高於我們行業的其他地區。我們的獲勝率保持強勁,並且在今年中途,我們的財務業績達到了目標。這些結果部分歸功於我們的團隊為實施旨在應對我們行業正在經歷的持續通脹壓力而採取的定價行動所做的出色工作,我為我們所取得的進展感到自豪。
Dave will cover our results in more detail in a few minutes, but I'd like to spend my time today on 2 things: reinforcing our strategy; and outlining our plans to lower planned spending in certain parts of our business. So first, our strategy remains centered on work, and that includes leading the hybrid-work transformation. We remain committed to helping people create places that work better because we believe people will continue to come together in person to imagine and to create and to achieve, even if the patterns that shape where and how they work continue to change.
戴夫將在幾分鐘內更詳細地介紹我們的結果,但我今天想把時間花在兩件事上:加強我們的戰略;並概述我們在某些業務領域降低計劃支出的計劃。因此,首先,我們的戰略仍然以工作為中心,其中包括領導混合工作轉型。我們仍然致力於幫助人們創造更好的工作場所,因為我們相信人們將繼續親自聚集在一起想像、創造和實現,即使塑造他們工作地點和方式的模式繼續發生變化。
Our investments in innovation have led to new additions to the Steelcase portfolio, such as our new architectural product, Everwall. And acquisitions like Orangebox, Viccarbe and most recently, HALCON, demonstrate our commitment to leading the hybrid-work transformation. We're seeing early positives from the HALCON acquisition as our teams are responding to the strong sales activity in the professional services sector and we're starting to realize cost benefits from our shared purchasing power.
我們對創新的投資為 Steelcase 產品組合帶來了新成員,例如我們的新建築產品 Everwall。像 Orangebox、Viccarbe 和最近的 HALCON 等收購表明我們致力於引領混合工作轉型。我們從 HALCON 收購中看到了早期的積極因素,因為我們的團隊正在應對專業服務領域的強勁銷售活動,並且我們開始從我們共同的購買力中實現成本效益。
In partnerships with technology companies like Microsoft, Zoom, Crestron and others, along with our own innovations, are also core to our strategy and investment mix as we help our customers solve for the hybrid transformation. And we believe our strategy is working. Aside from the increased market share, as I mentioned a minute ago, our customer interactions indicate that we're well positioned to be successful in our core business, which serves large leading organizations. And there have been some very recently released data points which show an uptick in the return-to-office level in many cities in the U.S.
通過與微軟、Zoom、Crestron 等科技公司的合作,以及我們自己的創新,在我們幫助客戶解決混合轉型問題時,我們的戰略和投資組合也是我們戰略和投資組合的核心。我們相信我們的戰略正在奏效。除了增加的市場份額,正如我在一分鐘前提到的,我們的客戶互動表明我們有能力在為大型領先組織服務的核心業務中取得成功。最近發布的一些數據點顯示,美國許多城市的複工率都有所上升。
But the reality is some companies have paused their investments as they define their own workplace strategies or weigh their choices in a volatile macroeconomic environment. So lagging return-to-office that so many companies are facing, primarily in the Americas, along with the possibility of a recession are likely contributing to slower decision-making. We've begun to see the impact of that slowdown on our incoming order volume level in the Americas, and we believe others in our industry are feeling that same downward pressure.
但現實情況是,一些公司在製定自己的工作場所戰略或在動蕩的宏觀經濟環境中權衡選擇時暫停了投資。如此多的公司(主要是在美洲)所面臨的複工滯後以及經濟衰退的可能性可能會導致決策緩慢。我們已經開始看到這種放緩對我們在美洲的新訂單量水平的影響,我們相信我們行業的其他人也感受到了同樣的下行壓力。
So despite the positive trends I just mentioned, this last quarter our order volume was down 8% in our Americas core business, meaning our Americas segment, excluding the recent acquisitions and our own dealers. And at the same time, inflationary pressures persist and remain significant. Supply chain disruptions also continue to impact our profitability. We've taken actions to address those challenges, but there are still substantial factors.
因此,儘管我剛剛提到了積極的趨勢,但上個季度我們在美洲核心業務的訂單量下降了 8%,這意味著我們的美洲部門,不包括最近的收購和我們自己的經銷商。與此同時,通脹壓力持續存在並依然顯著。供應鏈中斷也繼續影響我們的盈利能力。我們已採取行動應對這些挑戰,但仍有大量因素。
As we've been sharing with you over the past several quarters, we've been making trade-offs to mitigate the impacts of these headwinds, such as holding back on portions of our spending plans. For example, we slowed our rate of planned spending increases in both the Americas and Asia Pacific, and we'll continue to drive fitness throughout every part of our business and region to enhance our profitability.
正如我們在過去幾個季度中與您分享的那樣,我們一直在進行權衡以減輕這些不利因素的影響,例如推遲我們的部分支出計劃。例如,我們放慢了在美洲和亞太地區的計劃支出增長速度,我們將繼續在我們的業務和地區的每一個部分推動健康,以提高我們的盈利能力。
We're also committed to sustaining investments in our future by rightsizing our core business in the Americas and corporate functions. This move will position us to organize more fully around our plan to reinvest for growth and to diversify our revenue while remaining more profitable at current levels of volume. So we're taking actions to reduce our planned spending levels and this, unfortunately, will require a reduction in our current headcount. I also expect to communicate additional detail in the future regarding how we intend to evolve our operational model to drive greater efficiency and resiliency.
我們還致力於通過調整我們在美洲的核心業務和公司職能的規模來維持對我們未來的投資。此舉將使我們能夠更全面地圍繞我們的計劃進行組織,以實現增長再投資並實現收入多元化,同時在當前的銷量水平上保持更高的利潤。因此,我們正在採取行動降低我們計劃的支出水平,不幸的是,這將需要減少我們目前的員工人數。我還希望在未來傳達更多關於我們打算如何發展我們的運營模式以提高效率和彈性的細節。
Even with these reductions in planned spending, we remain appropriately invested in our core business as we do believe companies will continue to look to Steelcase since they reimagine their workplaces and invest in the hybrid solutions they need to grow and innovate. Our continued focus on investing to support growth through leading the hybrid-work transformation, appropriately scaling our core business and increasing our fitness, complements the opportunities we see to add more diversity to the markets and customers we serve. And that's another key element of our strategy.
即使計劃支出有所減少,我們仍然對我們的核心業務進行適當投資,因為我們相信公司將繼續關注 Steelcase,因為他們重新構想了他們的工作場所並投資於他們成長和創新所需的混合解決方案。我們繼續專注於投資以通過領導混合工作轉型來支持增長,適當地擴展我們的核心業務並提高我們的健康度,補充我們看到的為我們所服務的市場和客戶增加更多多樣性的機會。這是我們戰略的另一個關鍵要素。
Our A&D business is one example of how we're already executing our focus to serve small and midsized customers. A&D revenue grew 50% this quarter against the prior year by meeting the unique needs of this customer set. Over the past quarter, we've improved our speed of delivery through enhancements to our operational model, and created an improved customer experience through new digital tools that will allow us to better reach and serve this segment.
我們的 A&D 業務是我們如何專注於為中小型客戶提供服務的一個例子。通過滿足這一客戶群的獨特需求,本季度的 A&D 收入比去年同期增長了 50%。在過去的一個季度中,我們通過改進我們的運營模式提高了交付速度,並通過新的數字工具創造了更好的客戶體驗,這將使我們能夠更好地接觸和服務這一細分市場。
Our education business also continues to flourish. Smith System had the highest quarterly revenue in its history this quarter, growing by more than 50% over the prior year. And finally, our retail business revenue grew 17% versus prior year, and we continue to allocate increased investments to this business to drive more significant growth.
我們的教育業務也繼續蓬勃發展。 Smith System 本季度的季度收入創歷史新高,同比增長 50% 以上。最後,我們的零售業務收入比去年增長了 17%,我們將繼續增加對該業務的投資,以推動更顯著的增長。
One final area of our strategy that remains a key focus is our commitment to ESG. This quarter, we continued our series of global educational webinars for suppliers to encourage them to set science-based carbon targets and to consider sustainability improvements in the packaging of incoming parts. We also published our first chemical ingredient declare labels for 2 of our products to demonstrate our commitment to material health and transparency.
我們戰略的最後一個重點領域是我們對 ESG 的承諾。本季度,我們繼續為供應商舉辦一系列全球教育網絡研討會,以鼓勵他們設定基於科學的碳目標,並考慮改進來料零件包裝的可持續性。我們還為我們的 2 種產品發布了首個化學成分聲明標籤,以展示我們對材料健康和透明度的承諾。
In addition to that environmental progress, I'm excited to share we've been recognized by Forbes twice as being one of America's Best Employers for Women and as a Best Employer for New Graduates. And Steelcase was again honored by the Civic 50 as one of the most community-minded companies in the nation. This is our third year in a row on the Civic 50 list, and we're pleased to be again named amongst so many other great organizations making a difference in their business and their communities.
除了環境方面的進步,我很高興與大家分享,我們兩次被福布斯評為美國最佳女性雇主之一和新畢業生最佳雇主。 Steelcase 再次被 Civic 50 評為全美最具社區意識的公司之一。這是我們連續第三年進入 Civic 50 榜單,我們很高興再次入選眾多其他在其業務和社區中發揮作用的偉大組織。
In closing, despite the economic hurdles facing our industry, I'm proud of the way we've navigated the challenges over these past 18 months. We've taken aggressive actions to achieve our targets during the first half of the year, and we're seeing success on multiple fronts as we execute our strategy. We're making the necessary adjustments to prioritize our investments and rightsize our business, and we believe that will lead to improved profitability and more diversified growth opportunities in the future.
最後,儘管我們的行業面臨經濟障礙,但我為我們在過去 18 個月中應對挑戰的方式感到自豪。我們在今年上半年採取了積極的行動來實現我們的目標,並且我們在執行我們的戰略時看到了多個方面的成功。我們正在進行必要的調整,以優先考慮我們的投資並調整我們的業務規模,我們相信這將在未來帶來更高的盈利能力和更多樣化的增長機會。
So with that, I'll turn it over to Dave to review the financial results and our outlook more deeply.
因此,我將把它交給戴夫來更深入地審查財務結果和我們的前景。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Thank you, Sara. Good morning, everyone. My comments today will provide some color around our second quarter results, including comparisons to the outlook we provided in June. I will also cover the balance sheet and cash flow, our outlook for the third quarter and our targets for the remainder of the fiscal year.
謝謝你,薩拉。大家,早安。我今天的評論將為我們的第二季度業績提供一些色彩,包括與我們在 6 月份提供的前景的比較。我還將介紹資產負債表和現金流、我們對第三季度的展望以及我們對本財年剩餘時間的目標。
Beginning with the comparison to the outlook we provided in June, second quarter revenue was slightly below the range, while earnings were better than we expected. For revenue, we grew 20% organically compared to the prior year with double-digit growth across all segments. We estimate that pricing benefits represented approximately 1/2 of the growth.
從與我們在 6 月份提供的前景進行比較開始,第二季度的收入略低於該範圍,而收益則好於我們的預期。在收入方面,與去年相比,我們有機增長了 20%,所有領域均實現了兩位數的增長。我們估計定價收益約佔增長的 1/2。
Q2 order growth was below our expectations in the Americas and negatively impacted our revenue within the quarter. In addition, the euro continued to weaken against the U.S. dollar and resulted in approximately $5 million of additional unfavorable currency translation effects compared to our estimates.
第二季度在美洲的訂單增長低於我們的預期,並對我們本季度的收入產生了負面影響。此外,與我們的估計相比,歐元兌美元繼續走弱,導致約 500 萬美元的額外不利貨幣換算效應。
Despite our lower-than-expected revenue, our earnings for the second quarter exceeded the range we forecasted in June. Our better performance was driven by the Americas and included higher benefits from our pricing actions, a favorable inventory adjustment and timing of some operating expenses. In addition, we recorded a nonoperating gain on the sale of our remaining investment in an unconsolidated affiliate.
儘管我們的收入低於預期,但我們第二季度的收益超出了我們 6 月份的預測範圍。我們更好的表現是由美洲推動的,包括我們的定價行動帶來的更高收益、有利的庫存調整和一些運營費用的時機。此外,我們在出售我們對一家未合併附屬公司的剩餘投資時錄得非經營性收益。
Inflation continues to be significant and over the last 6 quarters, aggregates to $270 million. But for the first time since fiscal 2021, our year-over-year pricing benefits exceeded inflation this quarter. Over the coming quarters, we expect inflationary pressures to remain, but we anticipate the benefits from our pricing actions, including the surcharge, will continue to accumulate and more fully offset the cumulative inflationary costs we've incurred.
通貨膨脹繼續顯著,在過去 6 個季度中,總計達到 2.7 億美元。但自 2021 財年以來,我們的同比定價收益在本季度首次超過了通脹。在接下來的幾個季度,我們預計通脹壓力將持續存在,但我們預計我們的定價行動帶來的好處,包括附加費,將繼續累積,並更充分地抵消我們已經產生的累積通脹成本。
EMEA posted an operating loss of $6.8 million in the quarter, which was below our expectations. Revenue was impacted by project slippages and our operating results were also impacted by accelerating inflation and some inefficiencies in our operations. In response to the higher inflation, EMEA announced a 5% price increase in September that will be effective in October.
EMEA 在本季度公佈了 680 萬美元的運營虧損,低於我們的預期。收入受到項目延誤的影響,我們的經營業績也受到通貨膨脹加速和我們運營效率低下的影響。為應對較高的通脹,EMEA 宣布 9 月價格上漲 5%,將於 10 月生效。
As it relates to cash flow and the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $52 million in cash and $214 million in total liquidity. We deployed approximately $220 million of cash in the second quarter, which was funded by $61 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, a $64 million reduction in cash balances, $79 million of net borrowings under our credit facility and $8 million of proceeds from the sale of our remaining investment in an unconsolidated affiliate. The uses of cash included the acquisition of HALCON for $105 million, which was net of adjustments related to customer deposits and working capital.
由於它與現金流和資產負債表有關,我們在本季度結束時擁有 5200 萬美元的現金和 2.14 億美元的總流動資金。我們在第二季度部署了大約 2.2 億美元的現金,資金來自本季度 6100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA、6400 萬美元的現金餘額減少、7900 萬美元的信貸額度淨借款和 800 萬美元的銷售收益我們對一家未合併附屬公司的剩餘投資。現金使用包括以 1.05 億美元收購 HALCON,扣除與客戶存款和營運資金相關的調整。
Beyond HALCON, working capital increased by $69 million, driven by receivables and the sequential revenue growth in Q2. We also funded capital expenditures of $15 million, dividends of $17 million and our semiannual bond interest of $12 million. We are now expecting capital expenditures to total between $50 million and $60 million for the full year.
除了 HALCON,在應收賬款和第二季度收入連續增長的推動下,營運資金增加了 6900 萬美元。我們還為 1500 萬美元的資本支出、1700 萬美元的股息和 1200 萬美元的半年度債券利息提供了資金。我們現在預計全年的資本支出總額將在 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元之間。
Moving to orders, we saw second quarter order growth of 5% as compared to the prior year, which was driven by 7% growth in the Americas and 4% growth in EMEA. In the Americas, pricing drove approximately 14% growth, which more than offset an estimated decline in volume of approximately 7%. In EMEA, the order increase was also driven by pricing with volume being flat versus prior year. The 8% decline in the other category, which was also a combination of pricing and volume, was driven by Asia Pacific which experienced weakness across all markets, except India.
轉向訂單,我們看到第二季度的訂單同比增長 5%,這是由美洲增長 7% 和 EMEA 增長 4% 推動的。在美洲,定價推動了約 14% 的增長,這抵消了估計的約 7% 的銷量下降。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,訂單增長也受到定價的推動,數量與去年持平。另一個類別的下降 8% 也是定價和銷量的結合,這是由亞太地區推動的,該地區在除印度之外的所有市場都經歷了疲軟。
Presales activity remains positive, as does general near-term sentiment from many of our sales leaders and dealers. Recent opportunity creation in most markets was higher compared to prior year. Our win rates in the Americas were strong in Q2 and customer visits to Grand Rapids are almost fully booked through the end of the calendar year. However, orders in our Americas' core business seem to reflect the softening in demand patterns in the second quarter compared to the last several quarters. And this appears consistent with the latest industry data published by BIFMA for June and July.
售前活動仍然積極,我們的許多銷售領導者和經銷商的總體近期情緒也是如此。與去年相比,大多數市場近期創造的機會更高。第二季度,我們在美洲的贏率很高,到日曆年年底,大急流城的客戶訪問量幾乎已被預訂滿。然而,與過去幾個季度相比,我們美洲核心業務的訂單似乎反映了第二季度需求模式的疲軟。這似乎與 BIFMA 發布的 6 月和 7 月的最新行業數據一致。
In addition, during the first 3 weeks of September, our orders have declined by approximately 20% versus the prior year. It's possible the slowdown -- sorry, it's possible the slow return-to-office trend in the U.S. could be having an impact. It's also possible that reduced CEO confidence is impacting capital spending in our sector. Decision makers have a lot to deal with at the moment, and they're also facing a lot of near-term uncertainty. Inflation and supply chain disruptions are impacting almost every industry, labor challenges are impacting productivity on many fronts, rising interest rates are pressuring the outlook for GDP growth, and the geopolitical unrest remains concerning.
此外,在 9 月的前 3 週,我們的訂單與去年相比下降了約 20%。可能是經濟放緩——抱歉,美國緩慢的複工趨勢可能會產生影響。 CEO信心下降也可能影響我們行業的資本支出。決策者目前有很多事情要處理,他們也面臨著很多近期的不確定性。通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷正在影響幾乎每個行業,勞動力挑戰正在影響許多方面的生產力,不斷上升的利率正在給 GDP 增長前景帶來壓力,地緣政治動盪仍然令人擔憂。
As a result, we are planning to implement additional actions in the third quarter, which target further reduction of our planned level of spending. These actions target approximately $20 million of annualized spending and are expected to include the elimination of up to 180 salaried positions across the Americas' core business and corporate functions. These reductions approximate 8% of the related salaried workforce and will bring the cumulative reduction compared to pre-pandemic levels in fiscal '20 to approximately 20%. We expect most of these reductions will be implemented during the third quarter and result in restructuring costs of approximately $8 million.
因此,我們計劃在第三季度實施額外的行動,目標是進一步降低我們的計劃支出水平。這些行動的目標是大約 2000 萬美元的年度支出,預計將包括取消美洲核心業務和公司職能中多達 180 個帶薪職位。這些減少約 8% 的相關受薪勞動力,與 20 財年大流行前水平相比,累計減少將達到約 20%。我們預計這些削減中的大部分將在第三季度實施,並導致約 800 萬美元的重組成本。
These actions, along with some re-prioritization of our remaining resources, will help us remain invested in our most important strategic initiatives and provide some additional protection in the event of continued uncertainty and impact on our demand environment. In light of these trends, we also adjusted our dividend this quarter in order to strengthen our liquidity profile and support a higher allocation of capital to reinvestments in the business in pursuit of our longer-term strategy.
這些行動,連同我們剩餘資源的一些重新優先級,將幫助我們繼續投資於我們最重要的戰略計劃,並在持續的不確定性和對我們的需求環境的影響的情況下提供一些額外的保護。鑑於這些趨勢,我們還調整了本季度的股息,以加強我們的流動性狀況,並支持更高的資本配置以對業務進行再投資,以實現我們的長期戰略。
Moving to the outlook. Consolidated backlog of approximately $946 million at the end of the second quarter was 38% higher than prior year and continued to include a higher-than-normal percentage of orders expected to ship beyond the next quarter. As a result, we expect to report revenue within the range of $825 million to $850 million, which represents year-over-year organic growth of 12% to 15% and includes 10% driven by pricing. Excluding restructuring costs and amortization of purchased intangible assets, we expect to report adjusted earnings per share of between $0.17 to $0.21 for the third quarter.
轉向展望。第二季度末的合併積壓訂單約為 9.46 億美元,比去年同期增加 38%,並且繼續包括高於正常百分比的預計將在下一季度發貨的訂單。因此,我們預計收入將在 8.25 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間,同比增長 12% 至 15%,其中包括 10% 的定價驅動。不包括重組成本和購買的無形資產的攤銷,我們預計第三季度調整後的每股收益在 0.17 美元至 0.21 美元之間。
In addition to the projected range of revenue, the earnings estimate reflects the following projections: we expect gross margin of between 29.0% to 29.5% driven by pricing benefits net of inflation of approximately $55 million when compared to the prior year; sequentially unfavorable business mix due to the summer strength of Smith System; and lower manufacturing efficiency due to decreased production volume in the third quarter.
除了預計的收入範圍外,盈利預測還反映了以下預測:我們預計毛利率將在 29.0% 至 29.5% 之間,這是由於與去年相比,扣除通貨膨脹後的定價收益約為 5500 萬美元;由於 Smith System 的夏季實力,業務組合依次不利;由於第三季度產量下降,製造效率下降。
We also expect operating expenses of $215 million to $220 million, which includes $7 million of amortization expense related to purchased intangible assets and an expected $7 million gain on the sale of an underutilized facility in adjacent land as well as some prioritized investments in marketing and product development, higher spending in a few corporate functions and continued investments in our employees. Lastly, we expect interest expense and other nonoperating items to net to approximately $5 million of expense, and we are projecting an effective tax rate of approximately 27%.
我們還預計運營費用為 2.15 億美元至 2.2 億美元,其中包括與購買的無形資產相關的 700 萬美元攤銷費用,以及出售鄰近土地上未充分利用的設施的預期收益 700 萬美元,以及對營銷和產品的一些優先投資發展,在一些公司職能上的更高支出以及對我們員工的持續投資。最後,我們預計利息支出和其他非經營性項目的淨支出約為 500 萬美元,我們預計有效稅率約為 27%。
For the fourth quarter, depending on the level of volume, we expect sequentially improved gross margin due to accumulating benefits from our pricing actions and operating expenses of between $215 million to $220 million. We continue to work towards our full year targets. But given the uncertainty in the demand environment, we are not able to provide an update regarding the achievability of our targets at this time.
對於第四季度,根據銷量水平,由於我們的定價行動和運營費用在 2.15 億美元至 2.2 億美元之間的累積收益,我們預計毛利率將連續提高。我們將繼續努力實現全年目標。但鑑於需求環境的不確定性,我們目前無法提供有關目標可實現性的最新信息。
In summary, we're doing everything we can to drive profitability while protecting our investments in our most important strategic initiatives. Fiscal '23 has been an extraordinary challenge, and that's saying a lot following the initial impact of the pandemic in fiscal '21 and the beginning of supply chain disruptions and accelerating inflation in fiscal '22. But we're managing through it and we're gaining share while continuing to invest in our longer-term strategy.
總之,我們正在盡一切努力提高盈利能力,同時保護我們對最重要戰略計劃的投資。 '23 財年一直是一個非同尋常的挑戰,在 '21 財年大流行的初步影響以及 '22 財年供應鏈中斷和通脹加速的開始之後,這說明了很多。但我們正在通過它進行管理,我們正在獲得份額,同時繼續投資於我們的長期戰略。
From there, I'll turn it over for questions.
從那裡,我會把它翻過來問問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Your first question comes from the line of Reuben Garner.
您的第一個問題來自 Reuben Garner。
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Maybe if we could start with -- maybe elaborating on the thought process on the cuts to both corporate head count as well as the dividend. It sounds like some of the -- you've got mixed signals, some of the pipeline activity remains robust. But recently, demand trends are not where you want them to be. Can you walk us through your -- how you came to the decision to make those or take those actions?
也許如果我們可以開始 - 也許詳細說明削減公司人數和股息的思考過程。聽起來有些——你有混合信號,一些管道活動仍然很強大。但最近,需求趨勢並非您希望的那樣。你能告訴我們你的 - 你是如何決定做出這些或採取這些行動的?
Is there any risk that some of the order weakness is more driven by pull forward with your pricing actions kind of mid, late summer? And will you be able to kind of handle a ramp back up if this was a temporary slowdown for whatever reason?
是否存在某些訂單疲軟更多地是由於您在夏末夏末的定價行動所推動的風險?如果這是出於某種原因暫時放緩,您是否能夠應對回升?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Well, you've got a lot of questions in that single question there, Reuben, so let me try to break it down. If you refer back to March when we communicated our targets for the fiscal year and the revenue growth that we were pursuing, an underlying assumption was continuing improvement in our overall order patterns. And we believe that would be linked to a continued improvement in return-to-office and increased demand to support the hybrid transformation of work.
好吧,魯本,你在那個單一的問題中有很多問題,所以讓我試著分解一下。如果您回顧 3 月份,當我們傳達我們的財政年度目標和我們追求的收入增長時,一個基本假設是我們的整體訂單模式持續改善。我們認為,這將與重返辦公室的持續改善和支持混合工作轉型的需求增加有關。
And that's played out. It has been improving. We've seen improved demand, but it's not tracking at the level that we originally planned. And what we see right now is increased uncertainty on the horizon. I mean, it's no secret that there are dark clouds related to the economy and other factors. And therefore, we felt it was prudent to take some action.
這已經結束了。它一直在改善。我們看到需求有所改善,但並未達到我們最初計劃的水平。我們現在看到的是即將到來的不確定性增加。我的意思是,與經濟和其他因素有關的烏雲已經不是什麼秘密了。因此,我們認為採取一些行動是謹慎的做法。
Now I will tell you that we spend a lot of time balancing the level of action we should take because we are gaining market share, and we do see clients continuing to move toward returning to the office and making investments. So we did not want to jeopardize our ability to continue to gain market share, but we felt it appropriate to adjust given that it wasn't playing out as we had initially planned.
現在我要告訴你,我們花了很多時間來平衡我們應該採取的行動水平,因為我們正在獲得市場份額,我們確實看到客戶繼續轉向返回辦公室並進行投資。因此,我們不想危及我們繼續獲得市場份額的能力,但我們認為調整是合適的,因為它並沒有像我們最初計劃的那樣發揮作用。
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And then my next question, I'll try to be a little bit more concise. The price cost tailwinds that you've got for the remainder of the year, can you talk about where price cost stands today relative to pre-pandemic levels? How far behind are you still, and kind of catching up from some of the inflation?
好的。然後我的下一個問題,我會盡量簡潔一點。您在今年剩餘時間裡獲得的價格成本順風,您能談談今天的價格成本相對於大流行前水平的位置嗎?您還落後多遠,並且正在趕上一些通貨膨脹?
And then what kind of risk is there on the pricing front, if there is this volume or if the slowdown in volume continues through the back half of the year, what kind of competitive risk to pricing and bids do you see that could kind of put that gross margin trajectory at risk?
然後定價方面存在什麼樣的風險,如果有這個數量,或者如果數量放緩持續到今年下半年,你認為定價和投標有什麼樣的競爭風險可能會毛利率軌蹟有風險?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Maybe Mike can handle the first part, and I'll comment on the second part.
也許邁克可以處理第一部分,我將評論第二部分。
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Sure, sure. So obviously, inflation has been extraordinary. And as of now, there's really no signs of any relief on the inflationary front. So we quantified so far, we've accumulatively experienced $270 million of inflationary costs over the last 6 quarters, which is really when the fall started to ramp up.
一定一定。很明顯,通貨膨脹是非同尋常的。到目前為止,通脹方面確實沒有任何緩解的跡象。因此,到目前為止,我們進行了量化,在過去的 6 個季度中,我們累計經歷了 2.7 億美元的通脹成本,這實際上是跌幅開始加劇的時候。
Our pricing actions obviously take time to become implemented. And so we've started to make a dent in that. But we're still quite a bit in the hole. Over the next few quarters, we should -- because of the timing, assuming inflation levels, which is sort of our best estimate at this point, we would expect to start to offset that more fully. But even in another couple of quarters, we'll still be behind cumulatively, even though we'll start to post some good year-over-year tailwind improvement.
我們的定價行動顯然需要時間來實施。所以我們已經開始在這方面有所作為。但我們仍然陷入困境。在接下來的幾個季度中,我們應該 - 由於時間的原因,假設通脹水平,這是我們目前最好的估計,我們預計會開始更充分地抵消這一點。但即使在另外幾個季度,我們仍將累計落後,即使我們將開始發布一些良好的同比順風改善。
So we're going to -- so we need to continue the pricing actions in order to kind of make up for the hole we're in, even though we'll start to see some benefits on a year-over-year basis.
所以我們要 - 所以我們需要繼續定價行動,以彌補我們所面臨的漏洞,儘管我們將開始看到同比增長的一些好處。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes, Reuben. And on the second part of your question related to the competitive dynamics in a lower-volume scenario, I would just remind you that we are in a lower-volume scenario today. I mean, we -- the industry has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels of volume. In fact, we're significantly -- still significantly behind. And yet, the industry overall, the dynamics of competitiveness have remained, I would say, reasonable.
是的,魯本。關於你的問題的第二部分,與低容量場景中的競爭動態有關,我只想提醒你,我們今天處於低容量場景中。我的意思是,我們 - 該行業尚未恢復到大流行前的水平。事實上,我們明顯 - 仍然明顯落後。然而,我想說,整個行業的競爭力動態仍然是合理的。
It's -- and I think that's largely driven by the fact that we're all dealing with the same levels of inflationary pressures. I think we often are working with the same suppliers and our products have the same material content. So I imagine everyone is feeling the same pressure that we're feeling, and we'll see what happens in the future. But so far, it's remained like it has in the past, a competitive environment, but not an unreasonably competitive environment.
這是 - 我認為這主要是由於我們都在應對相同水平的通脹壓力。我認為我們經常與相同的供應商合作,我們的產品具有相同的材料含量。所以我想每個人都感受到和我們一樣的壓力,我們會看看未來會發生什麼。但到目前為止,它仍然像過去一樣,一個競爭環境,但不是一個不合理的競爭環境。
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And last one for me. Sara, there's a comment in the release that mentions your strategy is unchanged, but you talked about diversification. I was wondering if you could kind of elaborate on what that might mean going forward.
好的。最後一個給我。 Sara,新聞稿中有一條評論提到你的策略沒有改變,但你談到了多元化。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明這可能意味著什麼。
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sure, happy to. So you're correct. So we have not shifted our strategy. But remember, our strategy, as we communicated, has had a couple of components to it. So one of those certainly is to continue to focus on leading the hybrid-work transformation.
當然,很高興。所以你是對的。所以我們沒有改變我們的戰略。但請記住,正如我們所傳達的,我們的戰略有幾個組成部分。因此,其中之一當然是繼續專注於領導混合工作轉型。
So this is our core business with your typical big corporate customer, which is so important to us. And we've been successful, as Dave mentioned, we've got nice win rates, we're gaining share. So we will continue to invest in that hybrid-work transformation for those typical kind of corporate customers.
所以這是我們與您典型的大企業客戶的核心業務,這對我們來說非常重要。正如戴夫所說,我們取得了成功,我們的勝率很高,我們正在獲得份額。因此,我們將繼續為那些典型的企業客戶投資於混合工作轉型。
But I think the diversification is an acknowledgment of the fact that we've also seen really nice traction in growth, and we've been investing in and we'll continue to invest in other opportunities, whether that be health care, whether that be the mid-market business model that we're building around A&D or things like consumer or retail or health care.
但我認為多元化是對這樣一個事實的承認,即我們也看到了非常好的增長牽引力,我們一直在投資並將繼續投資於其他機會,無論是醫療保健,還是我們圍繞 A&D 或消費者、零售或醫療保健等事物建立的中端市場商業模式。
So those have been parts of our business that we want to make sure we continue to invest in and we continue to grow because we see some really nice market opportunities, some really great potential to grow. And we believe that we continue to bring the kinds of solutions to market that will allow us to be successful.
因此,這些一直是我們業務的一部分,我們希望確保我們繼續投資並繼續增長,因為我們看到了一些非常好的市場機會,一些非常大的增長潛力。我們相信,我們會繼續將各種解決方案推向市場,讓我們取得成功。
So I would say we're doing both. We want to make sure we take a balanced approach, both to continuing to focus on our corporate market but also make sure that we are explicitly investing in and supporting these other areas that will allow us in total to have a more diversified set of markets and customers that we serve.
所以我想說我們兩者都在做。我們希望確保採取平衡的方法,既繼續專注於我們的企業市場,又確保我們明確投資和支持這些其他領域,這將使我們總體上擁有更加多元化的市場和我們服務的客戶。
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Reuben Garner - Senior Equity Research Analyst
And Sara, I know I said last question, if I could quickly follow up. So are those organic investments? I mean, with the cuts that you're making, are you also reallocating resources? Or is this a potential for M&A in some of these areas? How are you doing?
還有 Sara,我知道我說的是最後一個問題,如果我能迅速跟進的話。那麼這些有機投資呢?我的意思是,隨著你的削減,你是否也在重新分配資源?或者這是否有可能在其中一些領域進行併購?你好嗎?
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Well, I think certainly, you've seen historically that those have been areas that in some cases, we've used M&A to drive, like the acquisition of Smith System, to really expand our education business. So I think we've always said that, that acquisition, what is the right opportunity, we think it fits our strategy that is part of what we look at. So there may certainly be things like that again in the future.
嗯,我想當然,你在歷史上已經看到,在某些情況下,我們利用併購來推動這些領域,比如收購 Smith System,以真正擴大我們的教育業務。所以我認為我們一直在說,那次收購,什麼是正確的機會,我們認為它符合我們的戰略,這是我們所關注的一部分。所以未來肯定還會有類似的事情發生。
But you're also right to mention reallocation of resources, where we see growth, where we see big market opportunity, where we see a lot of nice tailwinds in terms of market opportunities are in some of those other segments. So where we have the ability to increase investments, relatively speaking, or shift resources that might be working on the core business to help accelerate some of our initiatives in those other areas where we're pursuing those opportunities as well.
但是你也可以提到資源的重新分配,我們看到增長,我們看到巨大的市場機會,我們看到在市場機會方面有很多不錯的順風出現在其他一些領域。因此,相對而言,我們有能力增加投資,或轉移可能用於核心業務的資源,以幫助加快我們在其他領域的一些舉措,我們也在尋求這些機會。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Budd Bugatch.
您的下一個問題來自 Budd Bugatch。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Just accept my congratulations on managing the profitability and the work that you've done on that. I know these are very challenging times.
請接受我對管理盈利能力和您為此所做的工作的祝賀。我知道這是非常具有挑戰性的時期。
I do want to go back, David, you talked -- you used a phrase on the visits of, call it, fully booked for the balance of the year for visits to Grand Rapids. I'm curious, though, can you give us maybe a little bit more color on that activity in terms of how that compares to last year, and maybe several other quarters that you had sequentially, to give us some feel for what you're seeing in terms of the sales activity? I know the order activity is modestly disappointing at least during the first 3 weeks of this quarter.
我確實想回去,大衛,你說過 - 你在訪問大急流城時使用了一個短語,稱之為,已為今年餘下的時間預訂。不過,我很好奇,您能否就該活動與去年以及其他幾個季度的情況相比,給我們更多的色彩,讓我們對您的情況有所了解從銷售活動的角度來看?我知道至少在本季度的前 3 週,訂單活動有點令人失望。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's actually at or above FY '20 levels. We are -- I mean we're essentially fully booked. And at the end of FY '20, we were pretty full, but not entirely full. And we are squeezing in a lot of even shorter day trips to accommodate customer requests to come see us.
它實際上處於或高於 20 財年的水平。我們是——我的意思是我們基本上已經訂滿了。在 20 財年末,我們已經很滿了,但還沒有完全滿。我們正在擠很多更短的一日遊,以滿足客戶來見我們的要求。
So it's -- right now, if you wanted to come to Grand Rapids, we would either have to bump somebody before the end of the calendar year. We would either have to bump somebody or look for and hope for a cancellation, and we're just not seeing a lot of that. So the interest level and the activity level is -- remains quite high.
所以,現在,如果你想來大急流城,我們要么必須在日曆年結束前碰面。我們要么不得不撞人,要么尋找並希望取消,我們只是沒有看到很多這樣的情況。所以興趣水平和活動水平仍然很高。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
And can you give us some color as to the kind of customers you're seeing on these traditional Steelcase customers? Are they Fortune 1000? Are they -- do they reflect the diversification efforts? And Sara highlighted in her -- in the written language and a few moments ago in terms of the markets you're trying to serve?
您能否告訴我們您在這些傳統 Steelcase 客戶身上看到的客戶類型?他們是財富1000強嗎?它們是否反映了多樣化的努力? Sara 在她的文章中強調了 - 以書面語言和剛才提到的你試圖服務的市場?
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Yes. We've actually been really pleased with the diversity of the kinds of customers that have come to visit. And I should mention as well that we have not changed our criteria or our threshold in terms of who we want to welcome as guests to the organization.
是的。實際上,我們對來訪的客戶種類的多樣性感到非常滿意。我還應該提到,我們沒有改變我們希望歡迎誰成為組織的客人的標准或門檻。
So we've been able to see some really, I think, really exciting clients with really exciting opportunities. I mean, just the other day, we had a group that I spent some time with that represented a parochial K-12 school district that was looking to make big investments to sort of transform learning across their facilities, and they were a terrific group.
因此,我認為,我們已經能夠看到一些非常令人興奮的客戶,他們擁有非常令人興奮的機會。我的意思是,就在前幾天,我們有一個小組,我花了一些時間來代表一個狹隘的 K-12 學區,該學區正在尋求進行大筆投資,以改變其設施的學習方式,他們是一個了不起的小組。
And we're also seeing big Fortune 1000 kinds of clients. We're seeing a lot of mid-market activity. We've actually recently invested in more of a mid-market showroom and some new tools here on campus to help support those customers if they choose to make a visit. Many don't. But for those who do, we want to be able to show them what's possible and help them think about their workspaces.
我們還看到了財富 1000 強的大型客戶。我們看到很多中端市場活動。實際上,我們最近在校園內投資了更多的中端市場陳列室和一些新工具,以幫助支持那些選擇訪問的客戶。許多人沒有。但對於那些這樣做的人,我們希望能夠向他們展示什麼是可能的,並幫助他們思考他們的工作空間。
So we really have seen a pretty diverse mix of customers as well as, I would say, a number of customers and customer visits who aren't customers yet. So clients we haven't worked with in the past, but who are maybe thinking differently or asking new kinds of questions since the pandemic and are excited to talk to Steelcase and explore the possibilities when maybe they haven't in the past. So it's been quite a mix.
因此,我們確實看到了非常多樣化的客戶組合,我想說的是,一些客戶和客戶訪問還不是客戶。因此,我們過去沒有與之合作過的客戶,但自大流行以來可能有不同的想法或提出新的問題,並且很高興與 Steelcase 交談並探索他們過去可能沒有的可能性。所以這是一個很好的組合。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
And just -- if I can just finish on that particular issue. The sales cycle for these new diversification markets, I know there are various extended sales cycles for some of the markets that you serve, but how do you look at that?
只是——如果我能完成那個特定的問題。這些新的多元化市場的銷售週期,我知道你們服務的一些市場有各種延長的銷售週期,但你怎麼看?
And that may be -- I know it's a fuzzy question, but I think it's an important one to get an idea of how soon we could expect maybe some of those diversification efforts to lined up in orders and lined up in sales and shipments?
這可能是 - 我知道這是一個模糊的問題,但我認為這是一個重要的問題,以便了解我們可以期望多長時間才能完成一些多樣化的努力來排好訂單並排好銷售和發貨?
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Well, maybe I'll start with a thought on that and maybe Dave or Mike can chime in and add more. But I think one of the things that we've really tried to acknowledge as we've invested in these different markets is to make sure we clearly have an understanding of what the dynamics and the nature of those markets are.
好吧,也許我會從一個想法開始,也許 Dave 或 Mike 可以加入並添加更多內容。但我認為,在我們投資這些不同市場時,我們真正試圖承認的一件事是確保我們清楚地了解這些市場的動態和性質。
So for example, that mid-market that we're pursuing with our investments in AMQ, that type of customer, typically a customer who wants the process to be quick and simple. So this is the kind of customer who might call and say, look, I need 20 chairs and 20 desks and I want them in 2 weeks, right? So very different sales cycle and dynamic that is much faster on average than you might see for a Fortune 1000 kind of company operating in a very different way.
例如,我們正在通過投資 AMQ 來追求中端市場,這種類型的客戶,通常是希望流程快速簡單的客戶。所以這種客戶可能會打電話說,看,我需要 20 把椅子和 20 張桌子,我想要在 2 週內得到它們,對嗎?如此不同的銷售週期和動態,平均而言比你看到的以非常不同的方式運營的財富 1000 強公司要快得多。
So a lot of our investments have been driven at just that to say how can we make sure we can respond and we can drive a faster sales cycle for the kinds of customers who want to move quickly. And likewise, for the customers who are more deliberative and are planning a much more significant project or new construction, where the process naturally might take longer. We, of course, know how to support them as well. So we're really trying to be conscious of these differences and design what we're doing to support them.
因此,我們的很多投資都是為了說明我們如何確保我們能夠做出響應,並且我們可以為那些想要快速行動的客戶推動更快的銷售週期。同樣,對於那些更深思熟慮並正在計劃一個更重要的項目或新建築的客戶來說,這個過程自然可能需要更長的時間。當然,我們也知道如何支持他們。所以我們真的在努力意識到這些差異並設計我們正在做的事情來支持它們。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Okay. And on the first 3 weeks of this quarter, is there any more color you can give us? Is this -- does it reflect geographical disparities? I know the RTO issue, the return-to-office issue is one that's confusing a lot of people these days and the subject of a lot of conversation and written ink and all the media.
好的。在本季度的前 3 週,您還能為我們提供更多顏色嗎?這是否反映了地域差異?我知道 RTO 問題,返回辦公室問題是這些天讓很多人感到困惑的問題,也是很多對話、書面墨水和所有媒體的主題。
But where -- is there any -- when you're looking at that sales -- that order comparison, is there a color as to what the source of that weakness might be?
但是在哪裡——有沒有——當你查看銷售時——訂單比較,是否有顏色表明這種弱點的根源可能是什麼?
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Maybe I'll start that answer with a qualitative comment and then we can try to answer that with maybe some quantitative data as well. It's interesting that you asked that question because last week and this week, between the 2 weeks, we've had all of our American dealers hearing Grand Rapids to reconnect in person and to talk about new products, new opportunities really come together to work as a team on how we then [solve] all these opportunities.
也許我會從定性評論開始回答這個問題,然後我們也可以嘗試用一些定量數據來回答這個問題。你問這個問題很有趣,因為上周和本週,在這兩週之間,我們所有的美國經銷商都聽到了大急流城的現場重新聯繫並談論新產品,新的機會真的聚集在一起工作一個關於我們如何[解決]所有這些機會的團隊。
And I really tried to kind of push on that as I anecdotally talk to our dealers from all over the Americas. So every part of the U.S. plus Latin America, Canada, et cetera. And I would say, overall, the sentiment was quite positive. It was really hard to kind of poke on dealers from a particular part of the country or a particular region that expressed a sentiment that was quite different.
當我與來自美洲各地的經銷商進行軼事交談時,我真的試圖推動這一點。所以美國的每一個地方,加上拉丁美洲、加拿大等等。我想說,總的來說,這種情緒是非常積極的。很難對來自該國特定地區或特定地區的經銷商表達完全不同的情緒。
So while we know that geographically, you see different dynamics perhaps in big cities and you might enroll in America, at least qualitatively, as I spent the last few weeks with our dealers, there was a lot of positivity. And certainly questions about a potential recession, certainly questions about some of the challenges we all face, but it was hard to discern a geographic difference in those conversations.
因此,雖然我們知道在地理上,您可能會在大城市看到不同的動態,並且您可能會在美國註冊,至少在質量上,正如我在過去幾週與我們的經銷商一起度過的那樣,有很多積極性。當然還有關於潛在衰退的問題,當然還有關於我們都面臨的一些挑戰的問題,但很難在這些對話中辨別出地域差異。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes. I don't tend to draw any conclusion from 3 weeks of order patterns. It's a pretty short period of time. And it is still -- it's the longer end of the tail following our significant price increase and surcharge that we put into effect in the middle of July.
是的。我不傾向於從 3 週的訂單模式中得出任何結論。這是一段很短的時間。它仍然是 - 這是我們在 7 月中旬實施的顯著價格上漲和附加費之後的較長尾端。
But there could be some impact that's continuing to linger, it's just really hard to tell. But because it was down 20% and because we saw unit volume decline in our order patterns in Q2 in total in the Americas' core business, we felt it was important to share that information with you.
但可能會有一些影響持續存在,這真的很難說。但因為它下降了 20%,而且我們看到第二季度美洲核心業務的訂單模式的單位數量總體下降,我們認為與您分享這些信息很重要。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
The $55 million guided benefit of price over cost, can you give us kind of what you think the pieces of that would be in terms of incremental inflation and incremental price realization?
價格超過成本的 5500 萬美元指導性收益,您能否告訴我們您認為在增量通貨膨脹和增量價格實現方面的部分內容?
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Yes, Budd. It's about $75 million of pricing and about $20 million of inflation on a year-over-year basis versus the third quarter last year.
是的,巴德。與去年第三季度相比,與去年同期相比,定價約為 7500 萬美元,通貨膨脹率約為 2000 萬美元。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
So that $75 million includes that 6 -- the effect of the 6% surcharge, effective surcharge? Is that right? Because that's better than we saw in the second quarter, right?
所以這 7500 萬美元包括這 6 個 - 6% 附加費的影響,有效附加費?那正確嗎?因為這比我們在第二季度看到的要好,對吧?
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
That's correct. Yes. So it's the July price increase becoming more fully implemented and the surcharge.
這是正確的。是的。因此,7月份的價格上漲變得更加全面和附加費。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
And how do you think that breaks out for the rest of the year then? And how long will it take to recover the $270 million or the cumulative inflation, it will be more than $270 million by the time you cover it with?
你認為這會在今年剩下的時間裡如何爆發?需要多長時間才能收回 2.7 億美元或累計通貨膨脹,到您支付時將超過 2.7 億美元?
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Michael O'Meara - Director of IR & Financial Planning and Analysis
Yes. So depending on volume, the fourth quarter could be a little higher because those things will continue to become more implemented. We don't have a full view on how long it will take us to recover the $270 million, but it will still be behind as of the end of the fourth quarter.
是的。因此,根據數量,第四季度可能會更高一些,因為這些事情將繼續得到更多實施。我們無法全面了解收回 2.7 億美元需要多長時間,但截至第四季度末仍將落後。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It is slightly into next year.
稍微進入明年。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Okay. The $20 million spending that reflects of the 180 -- up to the 180 positions that you're going to be cutting, is that an annual savings, David? You used freight spending.
好的。 2000 萬美元的支出反映了 180 個 - 多達 180 個你將要裁減的職位,這是每年的儲蓄,大衛?您使用了運費支出。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's a targeted annual savings of $20 million, which could include up to 180 salaried positions that are eliminated.
這是每年節省 2000 萬美元的目標,其中可能包括多達 180 個被取消的帶薪職位。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
And in those salaried positions it's between core and Americas, how does that break out between those two?
在這些受薪職位中,它位於核心和美洲之間,這兩者之間是如何爆發的?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's the Americas' kind of core business and corporate functions. So by core business, I mean not Smith System, not AMQ, not e-commerce. It's kind of the large company, large city core business of -- that we've -- of Steelcase. And the core...
這是美洲的核心業務和公司職能。因此,我所說的核心業務不是 Smith System,不是 AMQ,也不是電子商務。這是 Steelcase 的大公司、大城市核心業務。而核心...
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Versus -- and corporate, what -- how does that break up corporate versus corporate function versus Americas?
與 - 和公司,什麼 - 這如何打破公司與公司職能與美洲的關係?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's -- I don't know that I have that breakdown. A large part of corporate is allocated to the Americas anyway. But as far as the corporate functions, it includes all of the corporate functions of HR, IT, operations, finance, facilities, et cetera.
這是 - 我不知道我有那種崩潰。無論如何,很大一部分公司都分配到了美洲。但就企業職能而言,它包括人力資源、IT、運營、財務、設施等所有企業職能。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Sara said that you're all pleased with HALCON. You've owned it since early June. How is that performing versus your expectations financially?
Sara 說你們都對 HALCON 很滿意。你從六月初就擁有了它。與您的財務預期相比,它的表現如何?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
So far, so good. They're dealing with what we're dealing with, supply chain disruption and inflation. And they're working through a significant backlog that we acquired. There's a tremendous amount of enthusiasm, excitement about them joining the Steelcase family. Our dealers are excited about the sales organization, feels good about it. We've received positive feedback from A&D as well. So we're feeling very good out of the gate about the acquisition of HALCON.
到目前為止,一切都很好。他們正在處理我們正在處理的問題,供應鏈中斷和通貨膨脹。他們正在處理我們獲得的大量積壓工作。他們對加入 Steelcase 大家庭充滿了極大的熱情和興奮。我們的經銷商對銷售組織感到興奮,對此感覺良好。我們也收到了來自 A&D 的積極反饋。因此,我們對收購 HALCON 感到非常高興。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Okay. And if I heard you right, you said the operating expense -- expectation for the fourth quarter is the same as it is for the third quarter. Is that correct $215 million to $220 million? Did I...
好的。如果我沒聽錯,您說的是運營費用——第四季度的預期與第三季度的預期相同。 2.15 億到 2.2 億美元是否正確?難道我...
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes, I think that's right. We just don't -- I don't have another projected gain on the facility sale for the fourth quarter. That's...
是的,我認為這是正確的。我們只是沒有——我對第四季度的設施銷售沒有其他預期收益。那是...
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
That will include the amortization of the $7 million.
這將包括700萬美元的攤銷。
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
So what -- and it said we're to include some of the reduction on the operating expense, right, from the restructuring effect. So I'm just curious as to what the additional cost?
那又如何——它說我們要包括一些運營費用的減少,對,重組效應。所以我只是好奇額外的費用是多少?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Totally, we're replacing the land gain that we have in Q3, we're replacing in Q4 with the benefits associated with the reductions.
總的來說,我們正在替換我們在第三季度獲得的土地收益,我們正在用與減少相關的收益來替換第四季度。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Okay. All right. The debt is up higher because of the acquisition of HALCON. And what is the debt to trailing adjusted EBITDA, what's that metric, has for your debt coverage?
好的。好的。由於收購了 HALCON,債務增加了。追踪調整後 EBITDA 的債務是多少,該指標對您的債務覆蓋率有什麼影響?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's in between 2 and 3x. Our trailing adjusted EBITDA, our trailing 4-quarter metric is about $150 million, $160 million, and our total debt is in the $550 million range right now.
它在 2 到 3 倍之間。我們追踪調整後的 EBITDA,我們追踪 4 個季度的指標約為 1.5 億美元,1.6 億美元,我們的總債務目前在 5.5 億美元的範圍內。
We borrowed to fund the acquisition of HALCON, but we also borrowed because we have a significant amount of incremental inventory in response to the supply chain disruptions that we have. So I hope that we will continue to see improvement in the supply chain disruption, and that our operations team will be able to continue to pull inventory levels back to a more normal level.
我們藉了資金來收購 HALCON,但我們也藉了錢,因為我們有大量的增量庫存來應對我們所面臨的供應鏈中斷。因此,我希望我們將繼續看到供應鏈中斷的改善,並且我們的運營團隊將能夠繼續將庫存水平拉回更正常的水平。
And if that happens and our earnings trajectory remains relatively consistent or better than what we did in the second quarter, then I think you'll see that credit facility paid off by the end of the year.
如果發生這種情況並且我們的盈利軌跡保持相對一致或優於我們在第二季度的表現,那麼我認為你會看到信貸安排在年底前得到回報。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
But that's the goal is the end of the year. That's kind of where I was going. And your metric, does that include the COLI impact is reducing net debt. Is that...
但這就是今年年底的目標。這就是我要去的地方。你的指標,包括 COLI 的影響是否減少了淨債務。就是它...
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Is COLI in that? Yes?
COLI在裡面嗎?是的?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Actually, I wasn't including COLI. I mean net debt would obviously be smaller.
實際上,我不包括 COLI。我的意思是淨債務顯然會更小。
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Beryl Bugatch - Senior Analyst
Okay. And finally for me, I'm sure the dividend issue was a major conversation on the Board. So talk about the philosophy of what you think. You raised it because you thought things were going to get better faster. You brought it back down. What's the issue now? Or how do you -- how does the Board view that?
好的。最後對我來說,我確信股息問題是董事會的主要話題。所以談談你所想的哲學。你提出它是因為你認為事情會變得更快。你把它拿回來了。現在有什麼問題?或者您如何——董事會如何看待這一點?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Well, I think the Board and the management team continues to operate under our long-standing capital policy of operating relatively conservatively, with -- on balance sheet liquidity to run the business. And we allocate earnings to -- of paying a healthy dividend.
好吧,我認為董事會和管理團隊繼續按照我們長期以來相對保守的資本政策運作,並在資產負債表流動性上經營業務。我們將收益分配給支付健康的股息。
And with the depletion of our liquidity, because of some of the acquisitions, some of the investments in inventory and other factors, we -- it's not where we would like, nor are our earnings projected to hit the high end of the targets that we communicated at the beginning of the year. So we felt it was appropriate to consider an adjustment. And the Board was on board with that, and we reduced it back to the level that we were at, I don't know, 6 quarters ago before we raised it to $0.145.
由於我們的流動性耗盡,由於一些收購、一些庫存投資和其他因素,我們——這不是我們想要的,我們的收益也不會達到我們目標的高端年初溝通。所以我們覺得考慮調整是合適的。董事會同意這一點,我們將其降低到 6 個季度前的水平,我不知道,然後我們將其提高到 0.145 美元。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Your next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey.
您的下一個問題來自 Steven Ramsey。
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
I wanted to start with the sales guidance being approximately $100 million or so lower than the backlog. You also said you would be shipping more beyond Q3. I guess, what are the drivers of later shipping dates at this point? And is there any light in the tunnel that this would change in the next few months?
我想從銷售指導開始,大約比積壓的訂單少 1 億美元左右。您還說您將在第三季度之後出貨更多。我想,此時延遲發貨日期的驅動因素是什麼?隧道中是否有任何跡象表明這種情況會在未來幾個月內發生變化?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
It's mostly customers that are driving it. So it's -- we had a lot -- a large pull forward of orders in advance of the price increase and surcharge. And so we have scheduled -- backlog that's scheduled out beyond 90 days.
推動它的主要是客戶。因此,在價格上漲和附加費之前,我們有很多訂單。因此,我們安排了超過 90 天的積壓工作。
That has been the case for the last couple of quarters. I'd say it's influenced by the number of price increases we put in place, but also influenced by supply chain disruptions. Those are not getting worse but they're not getting significantly better either. So we still have some extended lead times, not across all of our product categories, of course, but in some cases, we have extended lead times. But it's mostly the customer requested delivery dates that's driving the scheduling of backlog.
過去幾個季度就是這種情況。我想說這受到我們實施的價格上漲次數的影響,但也受到供應鏈中斷的影響。這些並沒有變得更糟,但也沒有明顯好轉。所以我們仍然有一些延長的交貨時間,當然不是針對我們所有的產品類別,但在某些情況下,我們延長了交貨時間。但主要是客戶要求的交貨日期推動了積壓的安排。
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And then on the sentiment being positive but orders declining, you talked about some pull-forward effect driving the orders. But maybe can you weigh those out just a little bit more, the sentiment being positive yet orders coming down? And if you expect that to drive a reversal of better orders in the next couple of months?
好的。然後關於情緒積極但訂單下降,您談到了一些推動訂單的拉動效應。但也許你能稍微權衡一下,情緒是積極的,但訂單卻在下降?如果您預計這會在未來幾個月內推動更好的訂單出現逆轉?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Well, I mean, I think the sentiment is tied to the customer visit activity, other presales activities being relatively good. And the fact that return-to-office continues to improve in almost every city around the U.S. and other parts of the world that have been lagging.
嗯,我的意思是,我認為這種情緒與客戶訪問活動有關,其他售前活動相對較好。事實上,美國和世界其他地區幾乎所有城市的複工率都在持續改善。
So I think everybody is feeling okay or better, but the dark clouds on the horizon related to the economy has people concerned. And so it's possible that, that could be having some sort of impact on the order patterns right now.
所以我認為每個人都感覺還好或好些,但與經濟有關的烏雲籠罩著人們的擔憂。因此,這可能會對現在的訂單模式產生某種影響。
Or it's also possible that it just could be extended pull-forward effect and things will get back to growing at a decent rate in the weeks and months, quarters to come. It just -- it's so hard to tell right now. The uncertainty level is very high.
或者,它也有可能只是擴大了拉動效應,並且在未來幾週、幾個月、幾個季度內,事情將恢復到可觀的增長速度。只是——現在很難說。不確定性水平非常高。
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Maybe the other thing I'd add to that, which, again, is something we see, but unfortunately, we can't really just quantify for you is that while there's tremendous presales activity and a lot of positive sentiment, there are certainly clients who are just starting to dip their toe in the water now.
也許我要補充的另一件事,同樣,這是我們看到的,但不幸的是,我們不能真正為你量化的是,雖然有巨大的預售活動和很多積極的情緒,但肯定有客戶他們現在才剛剛開始將腳趾浸入水中。
So for them, activity means a pilot or a test or something on a smaller scale, which will generate the same level of order volume either that a full-scale renovation or project was. But I think our hope certainly is that customers who are now becoming active and starting to pilot and test and try things, that those activities will be successful, and those will lead to momentum within those clients.
所以對他們來說,活動意味著試點或測試或較小規模的東西,這將產生與全面改造或項目相同水平的訂單量。但我認為我們的希望當然是那些現在變得活躍並開始進行試點、測試和嘗試的客戶,這些活動將取得成功,並且這些活動將在這些客戶中產生動力。
So the new one from the pilot either to pursuing a much larger scale project or transformation of the space. So that may be another dynamic that is influencing what admittedly on the surface looks like a disconnect between the sentiment and the actual level of orders that we're seeing right now.
所以新的從試點到追求更大規模的項目或改造空間。因此,這可能是另一種動態,它正在影響表面上公認的情緒與我們現在看到的實際訂單水平之間的脫節。
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Steven Ramsey - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. Helpful. And then last one for me on Smith Systems, clearly a major driver seasonally in Q2 and strong results again. Can you compare for Smith particularly the unit's total sales and margins versus pre-pandemic levels?
好的。有幫助。然後是我在 Smith Systems 上的最後一個,這顯然是第二季度季節性的主要驅動力,並且再次取得了強勁的業績。您能否比較史密斯的總銷售額和利潤率與大流行前的水平?
And then if you think longer term about capturing the full opportunity in the education vertical, is Smith enough to do that? Or would you be open to acquiring to get bigger in the education vertical?
然後,如果您從長遠來看,要抓住教育垂直領域的全部機會,史密斯是否足以做到這一點?還是您願意接受收購以在教育垂直領域變得更大?
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
David C. Sylvester - Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & CFO
Yes, I'll stop shortly providing a lot of detail on a specific business like Smith System. But I will tell you that relative to the value creation plans that we've put together when we made that acquisition, they are tracking nicely.
是的,我將很快停止提供有關 Smith System 等特定業務的大量詳細信息。但我會告訴你,相對於我們在進行那次收購時制定的價值創造計劃,它們的跟踪很好。
The other thing, too, that's important to note is while they do have a very strong summer, an exceptionally strong summer period, for obvious reasons schools are closed and want classrooms to be renovated largely during that time period, that team has done a terrific job driving business in the other 3 quarters.
另一件同樣重要的事情是,雖然他們確實有一個非常強勁的夏季,一個異常強勁的夏季,出於顯而易見的原因,學校關閉並希望在這段時間內對教室進行大量翻新,但該團隊做得非常好其他三個季度的工作推動業務。
It's still over-wait to the summer, but it's -- they do actually a very nice business in the balance of the year. As far as your second question about, is it enough? I mean, they continue to perform very, very well. And they've made great decisions about being in the right position to support the growth that has been in the industry. So they've gained nice share.
直到夏天仍然等待過度,但它 - 他們實際上在今年餘下的時間裡做得非常好。至於你的第二個問題,夠嗎?我的意思是,他們繼續表現得非常非常好。他們已經做出了正確的決定,以支持該行業的增長。所以他們獲得了不錯的份額。
Whether or not we do another acquisition, I would say, I wouldn't rule it out, but I wouldn't also declare that it's absolutely necessary for us to continue to be successful.
無論我們是否進行另一次收購,我會說,我不會排除它,但我也不會宣稱我們絕對有必要繼續取得成功。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Ms. Armbruster, I turn the call back over to you.
目前沒有其他問題。阿姆布魯斯特女士,我把電話轉給你。
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Sara E. Armbruster - President, CEO & Director
Great. Well, I just want to thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Steelcase, and hope you have a great day.
偉大的。好吧,我只想感謝大家今天加入我們。感謝您對 Steelcase 的關注,希望您度過愉快的一天。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。