Steelcase Inc (SCS) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Steelcase third quarter fiscal 2025 conference call. (Operator instructions)

    早安.我叫羅布,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻,我歡迎大家參加 Steelcase 2025 財年第三季電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • Mr. O'Meara, you may begin your conference.

    奧米拉先生,您可以開始會議了。

  • Mike O'Meara - Director - Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis

    Mike O'Meara - Director - Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis

  • Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the recap of our third quarter fiscal 2025 financial results.

    謝謝你,羅布。大家早安。感謝您與我們一起回顧 2025 財年第三季的財務表現。

  • Here with me today are Sara Armbruster, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Sylvester, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our third-quarter earnings release, which crossed the wires yesterday, is accessible on our website.

    今天和我在一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長薩拉·阿姆布魯斯特 (Sara Armbruster);以及我們的高級副總裁兼財務長 Dave Sylvester。我們昨天發布的第三季財報可以在我們的網站上使用。

  • This conference call is being webcast, and this webcast is a copyrighted production of Steelcase Inc. A replay of this webcast will be posted to ir.steelcase.com later today.

    本次電話會議正在進行網路直播,且該網路直播是 Steelcase Inc. 受版權保護的作品。

  • Our discussion today may include references to non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures and details regarding the risks associated with the use of forward-looking statements are included in our earnings release.

    我們今天的討論可能包括提及非公認會計原則財務指標和前瞻性陳述。我們的收益報告中包含了與最具可比性的公認會計準則衡量標準的對帳以及有關使用前瞻性陳述相關風險的詳細資訊。

  • And we are incorporating by reference into this conference call the text of our Safe Harbor statement included in the release. Following our prepared remarks, we will respond to questions from investors and analysts.

    我們將透過引用將新聞稿中包含的安全港聲明文本納入本次電話會議。在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將回答投資人和分析師的問題。

  • I'll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sara Armbruster.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Sara Armbruster。

  • Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike. Hi, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. So today, I'll cover the highlights of our third-quarter financial results and offer a few remarks explaining how we continue to make progress against our strategy.

    謝謝,麥克。大家好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議。因此,今天,我將介紹我們第三季財務業績的亮點,並提供一些評論,解釋我們如何繼續根據我們的策略取得進展。

  • So to start, we're proud of our third-quarter results and where we expect to finish the fiscal year. Despite our industry not growing as expected, our full-year adjusted earnings per share are projected to finish above the top end of the targets we communicated at the beginning of the year.

    首先,我們對第三季的業績以及本財年的預期感到自豪。儘管我們的行業沒有按預期增長,但我們的全年調整後每股收益預計將高於我們年初傳達的目標上限。

  • In Q3, we delivered 3% organic revenue growth and stronger-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share. And for the tenth consecutive quarter, we drove year-over-year gross margin expansion as our teams delivered solid cost improvement results and we captured the benefit of higher revenue.

    第三季度,我們實現了 3% 的有機收入成長,調整後每股收益強於預期 0.30 美元。連續第十個季度,我們推動了毛利率同比成長,因為我們的團隊提供了可靠的成本改善結果,並且我們獲得了更高收入的好處。

  • The stronger results were driven by our Americas segment, which delivered 7% organic revenue growth and an adjusted operating margin of 8.1%. The Americas also drove our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year order growth. And based on the latest industry data, we've increased our market share again this year.

    強勁的業績是由我們的美洲部門推動的,該部門實現了 7% 的有機收入成長和 8.1% 的調整後營業利潤率。美洲也推動了我們連續第五個季度的訂單年增。根據最新的行業數據,我們今年的市佔率再次增加。

  • Consistent with the expectations we outlined last quarter, we began to see improved order trends from our large corporate customers near the end of the third quarter, and we've continued to see a strong trend into early December. We're also beginning to identify increased activity from our largest technology customers who, like customers in many other industries, are increasingly expecting a higher level of in-office presence.

    與我們上季度概述的預期一致,我們在第三季末開始看到大型企業客戶的訂單趨勢有所改善,並且我們在 12 月初繼續看到強勁的趨勢。我們也開始發現我們最大的技術客戶的活動有所增加,這些客戶與許多其他行業的客戶一樣,越來越期望更高水準的辦公室存在。

  • And finally, it's notable that this month's Business Roundtable CEO confidence survey reached the highest level in over two years and indicates stronger investments in capital spending and hiring as we head into 2025. The strong quarter of growth and profitability in the Americas was partially offset by lower-than-expected results in our international segment.

    最後,值得注意的是,本月的商業圓桌會議CEO 信心調查達到了兩年多來的最高水平,表明隨著我們進入2025 年,資本支出和招聘方面的投資將會更加強勁。成長和獲利能力被部分抵銷我們的國際業務表現低於預期。

  • In the EMEA and APAC regions, we launched additional restructuring actions. I also want to note some of the positive signs from the quarter such as year over year and sequential order growth in China, and higher activity levels and a few significant wins across some of our largest customers in EMEA.

    在歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區,我們啟動了額外的重組行動。我還想指出本季度的一些積極跡象,例如中國的同比和環比訂單增長,以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區一些最大客戶的活動水平的提高以及一些重大勝利。

  • So turning to our strategy, let me start with transformation. Work has changed more dramatically in the past five years than it has in generations, and we see ongoing trends that will continue to impact the workplace. So I'll briefly describe what we continue to observe.

    談到我們的策略,讓我從轉型開始。過去五年工作發生的變化比幾代人發生的變化都要大,我們看到持續的趨​​勢將繼續影響工作場所。因此,我將簡要描述我們繼續觀察到的情況。

  • First, we anticipate continuing reliance on computer screens in the workplace. Screen-based interactions have overtaken in-person communications even among people who are in the office together. People are more likely to join meetings on a screen at their desk than to walk to a meeting room. And this behavior significantly changes how we use our offices, and it highlights the opportunity to bring new collaborative and privacy solutions to our customers.

    首先,我們預期工作場所將繼續依賴電腦螢幕。基於螢幕的互動已經取代了面對面的交流,甚至在辦公室裡的人們之間也是如此。人們更有可能在辦公桌上的螢幕上參加會議,而不是步行到會議室。這種行為極大地改變了我們使用辦公室的方式,並凸顯了為客戶帶來新的協作和隱私解決方案的機會。

  • Second, organizations and their employees are rapidly adopting artificial intelligence. We see a super cycle of economic growth coming from these new technologies, and that indicates it's time to design AI-ready workplaces. As more people adopt AI tools, the flow of work will change; and that will require a redesign of the space that supports those work processes.

    其次,組織及其員工正迅速採用人工智慧。我們看到這些新技術帶來了經濟成長的超級週期,這表明是時候設計人工智慧就緒的工作場所了。隨著越來越多的人採用人工智慧工具,工作流程將會改變;這將需要重新設計支援這些工作流程的空間。

  • In addition to those two trends, we're also seeing workplaces evolve the support teams that are tackling really complex issues like sustainability. So this ship demands new kinds of collaboration spaces and support. And we also see organizations increasingly using their space to respond to employee well-being concerns by giving people things like more autonomy and privacy.

    除了這兩種趨勢之外,我們還看到工作場所不斷發展支援團隊,以解決永續發展等真正複雜的問題。因此,這艘船需要新型的協作空間和支援。我們也看到組織越來越多地利用自己的空間來回應員工的福祉問題,為人們提供更多的自主權和隱私等。

  • So in response to these trends, we're introducing customers to a way of thinking about the office called community-based design. This design approach helps create dynamic and inspiring workplaces that respond to these diverse needs of employees, really, by providing them with choice and control across multiple types of work. This inherent flexibility helps many companies prepare for the next generation of working.

    因此,為了因應這些趨勢,我們向客戶介紹一種稱為基於社區的設計的辦公室思考方式。這種設計方法有助於創造充滿活力和鼓舞人心的工作場所,真正滿足員工的這些多樣化需求,為他們提供跨多種工作類型的選擇和控制。這種固有的靈活性有助於許多公司為下一代工作做好準備。

  • So let me move now to diversification. On a year-to-date basis, all of our customer segments in the Americas have posted year-over-year order growth, except our consumer business. One area of focus for our diversification efforts is healthcare, and I haven't talked about that in a few quarters. So I want to share today how we support health organizations with their unique needs.

    現在讓我談談多元化。今年迄今為止,除消費者業務外,我們在美洲的所有客戶群的訂單均實現同比增長。我們多元化努力的重點領域之一是醫療保健,我已經有幾個季度沒有談論過這一點了。因此,我今天想分享我們如何支持衛生組織滿足其獨特需求。

  • In the third quarter, our healthcare business delivered strong revenue growth compared to the prior year. We believe the healthcare industry is poised for continued growth, largely driven by an aging US demographic that is requiring more healthcare services. And to serve these customers, we create evidence-based solutions that support better experiences of care for patients and families, and clinicians and communities.

    第三季度,我們的醫療保健業務收入較上年強勁成長。我們認為,醫療保健產業將持續成長,這主要是由於美國人口老化需要更多的醫療保健服務。為了服務這些客戶,我們創建基於證據的解決方案,為患者和家庭、臨床醫生和社區提供更好的護理體驗。

  • We recently completed a project for a US healthcare system that had received funding to replace older furniture on a very tight deadline. In working with our local dealership, we leveraged our operational capabilities and scale to deliver more than 7,500 pieces of furniture in a very short period of time within that customer's patient and clinical spaces.

    我們最近為美國醫療保健系統完成了一個項目,該系統已獲得資金以在非常緊迫的期限內更換舊家具。在與當地經銷商合作時,我們利用我們的營運能力和規模,在很短的時間內為客戶的患者和臨床空間交付了 7,500 多件家具。

  • And we see many healthcare institutions with similar needs to modernize our infrastructure and reimagine the patient experience. And that's really where we best support our healthcare customers. So let me turn now to the profitability pillar of our strategy, and I want to build on my opening remarks.

    我們看到許多醫療機構都有類似的需求,需要實現基礎設施現代化並重新構想患者體驗。這確實是我們為醫療保健客戶提供最好支援的地方。現在讓我談談我們策略的獲利支柱,我想以我的開場白為基礎。

  • As we've discussed for the past year, we've been executing our business transformation initiative to simplify our processes and enhance our capabilities to strengthen our competitive advantage. We are in the midst of developing and implementing a new ERP system and processes in the Americas. And we are now targeting to go live in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which allows us of time for additional development and testing.

    正如我們在過去一年中討論的那樣,我們一直在執行業務轉型計劃,以簡化我們的流程並增強我們的能力,以增強我們的競爭優勢。我們正在美洲開發和實施新的 ERP 系統和流程。我們現在的目標是在 2026 財年第二季上線,這樣我們就有時間進行額外的開發和測試。

  • Now finally, as we think about our efforts use our business as a force for good and design better futures for people and the planet, I'd like to update you on one area where we are making significant impact for our customers and the well-being of our planet, which is designing for circularity. The number of global companies who have set significant science-based carbon reduction target has gone up more than 100% in the last year, and it's now at 40% of the global market cap.

    最後,當我們思考我們的努力如何利用我們的業務作為一股向善的力量,為人類和地球設計更美好的未來時,我想向您介紹我們正在為客戶和福祉產生重大影響的一個領域的最新情況-我們的星球正在為循環而設計。去年,全球製定重大科學減碳目標的公司數量增加了 100% 以上,目前佔全球市值的 40%。

  • These customers, many of which are our largest global clients, are seeking solutions that help them meet their own carbon reduction goals. So having different options to reuse or repair or remake and recycle through Circular by Steelcase allows us to grow and maintain those customer relationships.

    這些客戶(其中許多是我們最大的全球客戶)正在尋求幫助他們實現自己的碳減排目標的解決方案。因此,透過 Steelcase 的 Circular 提供不同的再利用、維修或改造和回收選項,使我們能夠發展和維護這些客戶關係。

  • For example, one update in this space is our new Circular by Steelcase remade services, which are launching in the US and expanding in Europe. These end-of-use services empower our customers to meet their sustainability goals, reduce our own carbon footprint, and keep furniture out of landfills.

    例如,這一領域的更新是我們新的 Circular by Steelcase 重製服務,該服務正在美國推出並在歐洲擴展。這些終端服務使我們的客戶能夠實現他們的永續發展目標,減少我們自己的碳足跡,並使家具遠離垃圾掩埋場。

  • Our ability to evolve our business in this way is proof of our commitment to our customers and the planet. So congratulations to all of the employees who've helped Steelcase make meaningful progress toward our people and planet goals and more broadly across our entire strategy.

    我們以這種方式發展業務的能力證明了我們對客戶和地球的承諾。因此,恭喜所有幫助 Steelcase 在實現我們的人民和地球目標以及更廣泛的整個策略方面取得有意義進展的員工。

  • So to close my remarks, I'd say that we're proud of our results this quarter and that we expect our fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share to finish above our targeted range. We remain positive about the progress we continue to make against our strategy.

    因此,在結束發言時,我想說,我們對本季的業績感到自豪,並且預計 2025 財年調整後每股收益將高於我們的目標範圍。我們對我們的策略持續取得的進展保持樂觀。

  • And I'll now turn it over to Dave to review the financial results and our outlook in more detail.

    現在我將把它交給戴夫,以更詳細地審查財務表現和我們的前景。

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Sara, and good morning, everyone. My comments today will start with the highlights related to our third-quarter results, balance sheet, and cash flow. I will then share a few remarks about our outlook for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year as well as some initial thoughts to support your modeling of fiscal 2026.

    謝謝你,薩拉,大家早安。我今天的評論將從與我們第三季業績、資產負債表和現金流相關的重點開始。然後,我將分享一些關於我們對第四季度和整個財年的展望的評論,以及支持您對 2026 財年模型的一些初步想法。

  • Our third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share were above the top end of the estimated range we provided in September, and our revenue of $795 million was near the midpoint of our range. The Americas drove the earnings favorability on higher revenue, stronger gross margins, and lower operating expenses. Our international segment finished below our expectations primarily due to lower revenue, as we had soft orders in some markets and some customer-driven project shipment delays.

    我們的第三季調整後每股收益為 0.30 美元,高於我們 9 月提供的估計範圍的上限,我們的收入為 7.95 億美元,接近我們範圍的中點。美洲地區的收入增加、毛利率提高和營運費用降低,推動了獲利前景。我們的國際部門的表現低於我們的預期,主要是由於收入下降,因為我們在一些市場的訂單疲軟以及一些客戶驅動的項目發貨延遲。

  • Compared to the prior year, we posted organic revenue growth of 3%, including 7% growth in the Americas, partially offset by an 8% decline in international. The Americas third-quarter revenue growth benefited from favorable shipment timing in our beginning backlog, which will have an impact on our fourth-quarter comparisons.

    與前一年相比,我們的有機收入成長了 3%,其中美洲地區成長了 7%,但部分被國際地區 8% 的下降所抵消。美洲第三季的營收成長得益於我們開始積壓的有利出貨時間,這將對我們第四季的比較產生影響。

  • Our prior-year adjusted operating income included benefits from a decrease in the valuation of an acquisition earn-out liability and gains from the sale of fixed assets. Setting those items aside, our improvement in the Americas was due to the strong volume growth, higher pricing benefits, and cost reduction initiatives; while the international decline was largely due to lower volume and higher competitive discounting.

    我們上一年調整後的營業收入包括收購獲利負債估值下降所帶來的收益以及出售固定資產的收益。撇開這些因素不談,我們在美洲的進步歸功於銷售的強勁成長、更高的定價優勢和成本削減措施;而國際市場的下滑主要是因為銷量下降和競爭性折扣較高。

  • Due to the continued soft demand in our international segment, we implemented additional restructuring actions and other cost reduction measures during the quarter which together are projected to drive approximately $5 million of annualized cost savings by early fiscal 2026.

    由於國際業務需求持續疲軟,我們在本季實施了額外的重組行動和其他成本削減措施,預計到 2026 財年初,年化成本將節省約 500 萬美元。

  • As it relates to cash flow and the balance sheet, cash and short-term investments increased $70 million from Q2, driven primarily by $71 million of adjusted EBITDA. Our trailing four-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $284 million improved by 9% over the prior year. And as a percentage of revenue, our trailing four-quarter EBITDA margin improved to 9.0% compared to 8.1% in the prior year.

    由於與現金流量和資產負債表相關,現金和短期投資較第二季增加了 7,000 萬美元,這主要是由 7,100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 推動的。我們過去四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.84 億美元,比上年成長 9%。作為營收的百分比,我們過去四個季度的 EBITDA 利潤率從去年的 8.1% 提高到 9.0%。

  • Our total liquidity, which includes the cash surrender value of COLI aggregated to $577 million at the end of the quarter, which exceeded our total debt of $447 million. We repurchased approximately 400,000 shares in the third quarter or approximately 2.1 million shares on a year-to-date basis. When aggregated with our quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, we've returned over $60 million to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2025.

    截至本季末,我們的總流動資金(包括中國海外發展的現金退保價值)總計達 5.77 億美元,超過了我們 4.47 億美元的總債務。我們在第三季回購了約 40 萬股股票,年初至今回購了約 210 萬股股票。加上每股 0.10 美元的季度股息,我們在 2025 財年的前 9 個月向股東返還了超過 6,000 萬美元。

  • As Sara mentioned, we are now targeting our ERP go-live for the second quarter to provide more time for system development and testing. As a reminder, we were projecting $75 million to $85 million in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025, which included approximately $35 million of investments related to the ERP implementation.

    正如 Sara 所提到的,我們現在的目標是在第二季上線 ERP,以便為系統開發和測試提供更多時間。提醒一下,我們預計 2025 財年的資本支出為 7,500 萬至 8,500 萬美元,其中包括與 ERP 實施相關的約 3,500 萬美元的投資。

  • With the additional development and related shift of our targeted go-live, we anticipate capitalizing additional expenses in the fourth quarter, increasing our total capital expenditures projection to approximately $100 million for fiscal 2025. This full-year estimate includes approximately $15 million of capitalized internal labor costs.

    隨著我們目標上線的進一步開發和相關轉變,我們預計在第四季度將額外支出資本化,將2025 財年的總資本支出預測增加至約1 億美元。的資本化內部支出勞動成本。

  • As we move into fiscal 2026 and finish the build and development phase, much of the expected project costs related to the testing, go-live, and stabilization phases are expected to be expensed as incurred. As a result, the fiscal year-over-year annual impact to operating costs is expected to be more than $20 million, including the expected initial amortization of the capitalized development costs.

    當我們進入 2026 財年並完成建造和開發階段時,與測試、上線和穩定階段相關的大部分預期專案成本預計將在發生時支出。因此,預計對營運成本的年度影響將超過 2,000 萬美元,其中包括資本化開發成本的預期初始攤提。

  • We also expect to begin capturing some of the value of our streamlined business processes and enhanced capability of the new ERP system after we go live in fiscal 2026. Orders in the quarter were down modestly compared to the prior year and included 2% growth in the Americas and an 8% decline in International.

    我們也預計在 2026 財年上線後,我們將開始獲得簡化的業務流程和增強的新 ERP 系統功能的部分價值。和國際下降8%。

  • In the Americas, Q3 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year order growth, and the 2% growth rate in the current quarter compares to 16% growth in Q3 of the prior year. The order growth was driven by government customers. And as Sara mentioned, our order trends from large corporate customers improved in November and have continued to be strong into December.

    在美洲,第三季訂單連續第五個季度年增,本季成長率為 2%,而去年第三季的成長率為 16%。訂單成長是由政府客戶推動的。正如 Sara 所提到的,我們來自大型企業客戶的訂單趨勢在 11 月有所改善,並持續強勁到 12 月。

  • Our project business grew in Q3, while our continuing business or day-to-day orders declined. We continue to believe the growth in our project business is reflective of how we are leading the transformation of the workplace as evidenced by our strong win rates and estimated market share gains over the last year in the Americas.

    我們的專案業務在第三季度有所成長,而我們的持續業務或日常訂單則有所下降。我們仍然相信,我們專案業務的成長反映了我們如何引領工作場所轉型,去年我們在美洲的強勁獲勝率和預計市場份額的成長就證明了這一點。

  • For international, the 8% order decline was driven by declines in most of our major markets in Asia Pacific and France. However, we did see order growth in Germany and some smaller markets in EMEA. And we are encouraged by higher project activity levels from some of our global customers in our international markets as well as some recent wins related to large opportunities with national accounts in France, Germany and the Middle East.

    對於國際市場,訂單下降 8% 是由於我們亞太地區和法國的大多數主要市場的下降所致。然而,我們確實看到德國和歐洲、中東和非洲一些較小市場的訂單成長。我們對國際市場上一些全球客戶更高的專案活動水平以及最近與法國、德國和中東國民帳戶的巨大機會相關的一些勝利感到鼓舞。

  • And for the first time in many quarters, we posted year-over-year order growth in China. And total Asia Pacific orders grew nearly 20% on a sequential basis as compared to the second quarter. Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter.

    我們在多個季度以來首次公佈了中國訂單年增長。與第二季相比,亞太地區訂單總額較上季成長近 20%。轉向我們對第四季的展望。

  • Our overall backlog at the end of the third quarter was down 5% compared to the prior year. And while orders during the first three weeks of December were strong, growing 15% over the same period in the prior year, they included a number of large projects scheduled to ship beyond the end of the quarter.

    第三季末我們的總體積壓訂單比去年同期下降了 5%。儘管 12 月前三週的訂單強勁,比去年同期增長了 15%,但其中包括一些計劃在本季度末之後發貨的大型項目。

  • Accordingly, we expect to report revenue within a range of $770 million -- sorry, excuse me, $770 million to $795 million which, after taking into consideration an additional week of shipments in the current quarter, represents an organic decline of between 4% to 7%.

    因此,我們預計報告收入將在 7.7 億美元範圍內——抱歉,對不起,是 7.7 億美元到 7.95 億美元,考慮到本季度額外一周的發貨量,有機下降了 4% 到 4%。

  • Before moving to our earnings expectations, I want to share a few comments regarding an issue we're navigating in our supply chain. The issue is related to a laminate supplier that was significantly impacted by Hurricane Helene, and we believe the disruption is being felt across our industry.

    在談到我們的獲利預期之前,我想分享一些關於我們在供應鏈中正在解決的問題的評論。這個問題與一家受到海倫颶風嚴重影響的層壓板供應商有關,我們相信整個行業都感受到了這種破壞。

  • Efforts are being taken to mitigate the impacts to our customers. However, it could take several months before the disruption is fully resolved. And it's possible that the outcome of these efforts could be different than the assumptions we utilized in determining the range of revenue projected for the fourth quarter.

    我們正在努力減輕對客戶的影響。然而,中斷問題完全解決可能需要幾個月的時間。這些努力的結果可能與我們在確定第四季度預計收入範圍時所使用的假設不同。

  • As it relates to earnings, we expect to report adjusted earnings of between $0.20 to $0.24 per share, which compares to $0.23 in the prior year. In addition to the projected range of revenue, the adjusted earnings estimate includes gross margin of approximately 33.5% and operating expenses of between $230 million to $235 million which includes $4.3 million of amortization related to purchased intangible assets.

    由於與收益相關,我們預計調整後每股收益為 0.20 至 0.24 美元,而上一年為 0.23 美元。除了預期的收入範圍外,調整後的獲利預測還包括約 33.5% 的毛利率和 2.3 億至 2.35 億美元的營運費用,其中包括與購買的無形資產相關的 430 萬美元攤銷。

  • Lastly, we expect interest expense and other non-operating items to net to approximately $1 million of expense, and we're projecting an effective tax rate of approximately 27%. Based on our year-to-date results and our fourth-quarter projections, we believe our fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share will finish above our targeted range for the year.

    最後,我們預計利息支出和其他非經營項目淨支出約為 100 萬美元,並且我們預計有效稅率約為 27%。根據我們今年迄今的業績和第四季的預測,我們相信 2025 財年調整後每股盈餘將高於我們今年的目標範圍。

  • And as Sara said, we're proud of the results our teams are driving and the progress we're making on our most important initiatives. As we begin to think about fiscal 2026, we believe the current macroeconomic environment and what we're hearing from our large customers in the Americas are supportive of us targeting organic revenue growth and improved adjusted earnings for next year.

    正如薩拉所說,我們為我們的團隊所取得的成果以及我們在最重要的舉措上取得的進展感到自豪。當我們開始考慮 2026 財年時,我們相信當前的宏觀經濟環境以及我們從美洲大客戶那裡聽到的消息都支持我們實現明年的有機收入成長和調整後收益改善的目標。

  • During the current year, demand from the financial services sector improved significantly, and we believe there was a correlation with the stance many of those companies took about increased employee presence in their offices. We are seeing a similar shift in expectations regarding the number of days in office across several large customers in the technology sector, where presales activity and demand expectations are also beginning to improve.

    今年,金融服務業的需求顯著改善,我們認為這與許多公司對增加辦公室員工人數的立場有關。我們發現科技業的幾家大客戶對在職天數的預期也出現了類似的轉變,其中預售活動和需求預期也開始改善。

  • We also expect growth from small to mid-sized education and health care customers, and we are encouraged by the positive signs in our international markets that I mentioned earlier. The key to potentially driving meaningful organic revenue growth in fiscal 2026 is related to our large corporate customers. And it seems the level of demand from that customer segment may be at or near an inflection point.

    我們也預期中小型教育和醫療保健客戶的成長,我之前提到的國際市場的正面跡象令我們感到鼓舞。 2026 財年潛在推動有意義的有機收入成長的關鍵與我們的大型企業客戶有關。該客戶群的需求水準似乎可能處於或接近拐點。

  • Regarding adjusted earnings in fiscal 2026, we are targeting additional benefits from our gross margin improvement initiatives. And we expect to begin capturing some value from our business transformation initiative and new ERP system. However, as I stated, we expect to capitalize less of the related implementation costs in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025, and it's prudent to imagine some level of inefficiency during the cutover to the new system.

    關於 2026 財年的調整後收益,我們的目標是從毛利率改善計畫中獲得額外收益。我們期望開始從我們的業務轉型計劃和新的 ERP 系統中獲得一些價值。然而,正如我所說,與 2025 財年相比,我們預計 2026 財年的相關實施成本資本化較少,並且謹慎地可以想像在切換到新系統期間會出現一定程度的低效率。

  • Plus, we intend to further invest in our revenue diversification strategies. Thus, we expect gross margin expansion in fiscal 2026 to be mostly driven by the benefits of projected volume growth. And our operating expense leverage could be relatively flat year over year.

    此外,我們打算進一步投資於我們的收入多元化策略。因此,我們預計 2026 財年的毛利率擴張將主要由預期銷售成長的好處所推動。我們的營運費用槓桿率年比可能相對持平。

  • For purposes of updating your models now, we believe a low- to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth rate for fiscal 2026 is a reasonable target at this point, but likely with a low contribution margin. After we complete our fiscal 2026 detailed planning process in Q4, we will provide a more detailed outlook in March.

    出於現在更新模型的目的,我們認為 2026 財年低至中個位數的有機收入成長率是目前的合理目標,但貢獻邊際可能較低。在我們第四季完成 2026 財年詳細規劃流程後,我們將在 3 月提供更詳細的展望。

  • From there, we'll turn it back to the operator for questions.

    從那裡,我們會將其轉回給操作員詢問問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

    (操作員指示)Reuben Garner,基準。

  • Reuben Garner - Analyst

    Reuben Garner - Analyst

  • Dave, maybe just to start where we ended on ERP. Just to be clear, the $20 million, how much of that is -- does that include those inefficiencies that you talked about or that's just purely start-up costs and capital amortization being expensed? And then how much of that is one time and may go away when we get to modeling out for '27?

    Dave,也許只是從 ERP 結束的地方開始。需要明確的是,2000 萬美元是多少——這是否包括您談到的那些低效率問題,或者只是純粹的啟動成本和資本攤銷?那麼其中有多少是一次性的,當我們開始為 27 年建模時可能會消失?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • So it's purely related to the implementation cost. The inefficiency associated with go-live is separate, and we can talk about that. But the $20 million reference that I made is related to us capitalizing outside consulting and internal labor this year and expensing -- likely expensing most of it next year. And that year-over-year swing is $20 million.

    所以這純粹與實施成本有關。與上線相關的低效率是單獨的,我們可以討論這一點。但我提到的 2000 萬美元與我們今年資本化外部諮詢和內部勞動力以及支出有關——很可能明年支出大部分。年比波動為 2000 萬美元。

  • On the elements that are one time, I don't have that off the top of my head. I think maybe Mike could follow up with you. My estimate, I guess, off the cuff would be probably in the neighborhood of $10 million. But let's much follow up with Mike to confirm whether that number is a reasonable estimate.

    對於一次性的元素,我並沒有想到這一點。我想也許麥克可以和你聯繫。我猜想,即興的估計可能是 1000 萬美元左右。但讓我們進一步關注麥克,以確認這個數字是否是一個合理的估計。

  • Reuben Garner - Analyst

    Reuben Garner - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then as far as the items that you mentioned to offset whether it's the efficient -- the benefits that you get from the ERP or your gross margin initiatives, is your stance today that you will have some, but it won't fully offset that $20 million. And so just want to be clear. You're not suggesting that you're going to get more than $20 million in those things? Okay.

    好的。這很有幫助。至於你提到的用來抵消效率的項目——你從 ERP 或毛利率計劃中獲得的好處,你今天的立場是你會有一些,但它不會完全抵消它2000萬美元。所以我想澄清一下。你不是說你會在這些東西上獲得超過 2000 萬美元的收入嗎?好的。

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • No, I think we'll get started towards the back end of the year on the benefits of the new ERP but we should talk a minute about the inefficiencies that we imagine. We will have to ramp down production in advance of the go live and then gradually ramp it up after the go-live.

    不,我認為我們將在今年年底開始了解新 ERP 的好處,但我們應該花一點時間討論我們想像的低效率問題。我們必須在上線前減少產量,然後在上線後逐漸增加產量。

  • We don't expect any impact to customers because we'll be able to build ahead and catch up, we believe. But the impact due to the labor in our facilities that will be working on other things other than production will drive some, I'd say, meaningful inefficiencies, which is why we're projecting at this point that the gross margin improvement will next year will most likely be attributable to the volume growth versus additional gross margin improvement initiatives that we'll also be targeting.

    我們預計不會對客戶產生任何影響,因為我們相信我們將能夠領先並迎頭趕上。但我想說,我們工廠中的勞動力將從事生產以外的其他工作,這將導致一些有意義的低效率,這就是為什麼我們現在預測明年毛利率將改善很可能歸因於銷量增長與我們也瞄準的額外毛利率改善措施。

  • Reuben Garner - Analyst

    Reuben Garner - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And the three-week order trend, I think it was that you highlighted in your press release. I guess, can you talk about how maybe, one, what was the year ago comparison on that? Was there anything funny going on a year ago? Or was that growth on top of growth?

    好的。知道了。我認為您在新聞稿中強調了三週訂單趨勢。我想,你能談談與一年前的比較嗎?一年前有發生什麼有趣的事嗎?或者說這種成長是在成長之上的?

  • And then secondarily, do you feel like that was some potentially some catch-up after that lull heading into the election? Or does it feel like maybe some of the funnel and pipeline that you have is just reaching that point of translating to orders that we've how -- do we think about the 15% number?

    其次,你是否覺得在選舉之前的平靜期之後,這可能是一些潛在的追趕?或者你感覺你擁有的一些漏斗和管道剛剛達到了轉換為我們所擁有的訂單的程度——我們是否考慮過 15% 的數字?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, I think we feel pretty good about it. I think last year, in the first three weeks, we referenced a 7% growth rate in the first three weeks, so 15 is on top of the seven. So we feel pretty good about that. You referenced the potential lull due to the elections.

    嗯,我想我們對此感覺很好。我想去年,在前三週,我們提到前三週成長率為 7%,所以 15 位於 7 之上。所以我們對此感覺很好。您提到了選舉可能導致的平靜。

  • I don't know for certain, but I would guess that our large corporate customers weren't -- they weren't necessarily waiting to see the outcome of the election. I think just the timing of their orders was playing out differently than our internal CRM or sales tools we're suggesting.

    我不確定,但我猜我們的大企業客戶不是——他們不一定在等待看到選舉結果。我認為只是他們的訂單時間與我們建議的內部 CRM 或銷售工具不同。

  • So we mentioned on the last call and maybe even the call before that, that we felt pretty good about the activity levels that we were seeing across our large customer base and felt like those orders were coming. The projects were active.

    因此,我們在上次電話甚至之前的電話中提到,我們對我們在龐大客戶群中看到的活動水平感到非常滿意,並且感覺這些訂單即將到來。這些項目很活躍。

  • We had won them. We just weren't seeing them develop into orders, and I think we're starting to see some of that in the first three weeks of December.

    我們贏了他們。我們只是沒有看到它們發展成訂單,我認為我們在 12 月的前三週就開始看到其中的一些。

  • Reuben Garner - Analyst

    Reuben Garner - Analyst

  • Okay. I'm going to sneak one more in there, if you don't mind. The low to mid-single-digit framework for next year, you mentioned restructuring in International. What internally, does that look like today that breakout between Americas expectations versus International and other businesses you have?

    好的。如果你不介意的話,我會再偷偷放一張進去。您提到了國際業務的重組,明年的低至中個位數框架。在內部,今天美國的期望與國際和其他業務之間的突破是什麼樣子的?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • We'll be targeting profitability in the International segment, driven by some level of volume growth, which we haven't entirely ironed out, but some level of volume growth and the benefits of all the cost reduction activities that we've launched and implemented over the last almost 18 months.

    我們的目標是國際業務的盈利能力,由一定程度的銷售增長推動,我們尚未完全解決這一問題,但一定程度的銷量增長以及我們發起和實施的所有成本削減活動的好處在過去近18 個月裡。

  • In fact, if you get a second, when we release our Q later today, there's a restructuring footnote that provides some color about each one of the restructuring activities that we've been taking, many of which have been related to the International segment.

    事實上,如果您有時間的話,當我們今天晚些時候發布問題時,有一個重組腳註,為我們一直在進行的每一項重組活動提供了一些色彩,其中許多活動與國際部門相關。

  • Reuben Garner - Analyst

    Reuben Garner - Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong quarter and happy holidays to all of you.

    恭喜季度業績強勁,祝大家節日快樂。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research Group.

    史蒂文·拉姆齊,湯普森研究小組。

  • Steven Ramsey - Analyst

    Steven Ramsey - Analyst

  • I wanted to start with the continuing business trends. You cited that they declined in the quarter. Could you maybe clarify the order of magnitude of that decline? And then maybe how you see continuing business shaping up into FY26?

    我想從持續的商業趨勢開始。您提到他們在本季度有所下降。能否澄清一下下降的幅度?那麼您如何看待 2026 財年的持續業務發展?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • It's a good question, Steven. I mean, the decline is up against a strong growth in the prior year. You might remember the first thing that started to show improvement was our continuing our day-to-day business. We had a theory over a year ago, maybe a couple of years ago that once we started seeing more people getting back into the office, that day-to-day business would restart.

    這是一個很好的問題,史蒂文。我的意思是,下降是與去年的強勁增長相比。您可能還記得,開始出現改善的第一件事是我們繼續日常業務。一年多前,也許幾年前,我們有一個理論,一旦我們開始看到更多的人回到辦公室,日常業務就會重新開始。

  • And as we saw that, particularly in the financial services sector, we saw our day-to-day business pick up pretty strongly. So we had nice growth throughout much of last year from continuing. And then late in the year, project growth started to kick in. So it's up against the I think a double-digit growth rate in the prior year.

    正如我們所看到的,特別是在金融服務領域,我們的日常業務成長相當強勁。因此,在去年的大部分時間裡,我們透過持續的努力取得了良好的成長。然後在今年年底,專案開始成長。

  • Mike could validate that on a follow-up call that I'm pretty sure it's double digit. And I suspect that it's going to show some improvement as we see potentially the tech sector get back in the office more significantly in other vertical markets to also increase their in-office presence.

    麥克可以在後續電話中驗證這一點,我很確定它是兩位數。我懷疑情況會有所改善,因為我們看到科技業可能會在其他垂直市場中更顯著地重返辦公室,從而增加其在辦公室的存在。

  • Steven Ramsey - Analyst

    Steven Ramsey - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe an add-on to that comment you just made. Are you seeing the continuing business in the tech sector already starting to inflect upwards or maybe describe the trend in that sector so that we can get a feel for how it is comping relative to the financial services trend line?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後也許是對您剛剛發表的評論的補充。您是否看到科技業的持續業務已經開始向上發展,或者描述該行業的趨勢,以便我們能夠了解它相對於金融服務趨勢線的比較情況?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I haven't seen it yet, Steven, but I also have to tell you, I haven't double clicked by vertical market on the continuing business to really look at it closely. But I don't remember anyone noting that it was growing in a significant way while everything else was declining.

    我還沒有看到它,史蒂文,但我也必須告訴你,我還沒有雙擊持續業務的垂直市場來真正仔細地觀察它。但我不記得有人注意到它在大幅增長,而其他一切都在下降。

  • Steven Ramsey - Analyst

    Steven Ramsey - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Understood. On the International side, you saw competitor discounting pressures. Can you put that into context for the past 6 to 12 months, is it worsened? And if it was happening in particular geographies or if it was a broader impact? And then maybe lastly, do you expect that to persist into calendar '25?

    好的。好的。明白了。在國際方面,您看到了競爭對手的折扣壓力。您能否結合過去 6 到 12 個月的情況來看,情況是否惡化了?如果它發生在特定地區,或者它是否具有更廣泛的影響?也許最後,你預期這種情況會持續到 25 年嗎?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, I would say it feels relatively broad-based. I don't know that I would use the phrase worsen. I would just say that the volume levels in the Western European market have been challenged for the last couple of years and it's quite competitive as a result. We are also intentionally focusing on a few different things to expand our volume levels in certain vertical markets and in certain geographies.

    嗯,我想說它感覺基礎相對廣泛。我不知道我會使用“惡化”這個詞。我只想說,西歐市場的銷量水準在過去幾年中受到了挑戰,因此競爭相當激烈。我們也有意專注於一些不同的事情,以擴大我們在某些​​垂直市場和某些地區的銷售量。

  • I wouldn't say we've used discount dollars only to go after that business, but to sometimes disrupt and engaged customer with a competitor, you have to show you're serious about wanting that business. So that's my way of saying it's more strategic discounting but there is some element of it is quite competitive in Europe.

    我不會說我們使用折扣資金只是為了追求該業務,但有時為了擾亂並吸引競爭對手與客戶互動,您必須表明您認真想要該業務。所以我的意思是,這是更具策略性的折扣,但其中的某些元素在歐洲相當有競爭力。

  • Steven Ramsey - Analyst

    Steven Ramsey - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then last one, for me would be around Americas share gains you've cited your success in that effort in the last year or so. As you look out into the next year, do you see the share gains coming from the same places? Or do you see any shift in where you are winning incremental business?

    好的。好的。這很有幫助。最後一個,對我來說,是關於美洲份額的成長,你提到了你在過去一年左右的努力中所取得的成功。當您展望明年時,您是否看到份額成長來自相同的地方?或者您認為贏得增量業務的方面有什麼變化嗎?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • I think we're going to continue to target the share gains as we have stayed invested and how the workplace, we believe, is going to transform. And we did not reduce our sales force to the extent that some of our competitors did during the worst of the pandemic.

    我認為我們將繼續以股票收益為目標,因為我們一直在投資,我們相信工作場所將如何轉型。我們並沒有像我們的一些競爭對手在疫情最嚴重的時候那樣減少銷售人員。

  • And so we've kept our relationships strong with large global accounts. So we're hopeful that, that will continue to produce market share gains like it has this year and much of last year.

    因此,我們與大型全球客戶保持了牢固的關係。因此,我們希望這將繼續帶來市場份額的成長,就像今年和去年的大部分時間一樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg Burns, Sidoti.

    格雷格·伯恩斯,西多蒂。

  • Greg Burns - Analyst

    Greg Burns - Analyst

  • Can you just maybe give us a little bit of color on your exposure to potential tariffs next year, where that might impact your business? And how much of that is reflected in your guidance for fiscal '26?

    您能否向我們介紹一下您明年面臨的潛在關稅風險,這可能會影響您的業務?其中有多少反映在您的 26 財年指導中?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, this was a good call, Greg, before you brought that up. So we knew it would come up. It comes up in virtually every one-on-one. So we don't really have anything built into our guide. Of course, tariffs that are currently in place in some markets are built into the guide.

    好吧,格雷格,在你提出這個問題之前,這是一個很好的決定。所以我們知道它會出現。它幾乎出現在每一次一對一的比賽中。所以我們的指南中並沒有真正內建任何內容。當然,某些市場目前實施的關稅已納入指引中。

  • But I think you're referring to the incremental tariffs that have been talked about as potentially being put in place by the new administration. So we've looked at this quite carefully, and we have -- are evaluating contingency plans, and we're taking some actions where we can, which includes buying additional inventory in advance of the potential tariffs being put into place.

    但我認為你指的是新政府可能實施的增量關稅。因此,我們非常仔細地考慮了這個問題,我們正在評估應急計劃,我們正在盡可能採取一些行動,其中包括在潛在關稅實施之前購買額外的庫存。

  • So we're in the process of doing some of that. I would tell you that our business really -- or the tariff exposure really falls into three buckets. One bucket is a bucket of supply chain where we think much of the industry is leveraging the same suppliers internationally. And if those tariffs are enacted, it's likely or it's imaginable that those tariffs will be passed on to customers because it will affect the broader industry.

    所以我們正在做其中的一些事情。我想告訴你,我們的業務確實──或者說關稅風險確實分為三類。一個桶子是供應鏈的一個桶,我們認為該行業的大部分都在國際上利用相同的供應商。如果這些關稅得以實施,這些關稅很可能或可以想像將轉嫁給客戶,因為這將影響更廣泛的產業。

  • There's another bucket that we're a little bit more uniquely positioned and I'm referring to maybe the China and Taiwan and other international markets. And that bucket, we've been continuing to look at ways to reduce our exposure by bringing some things in-house and developing contingency plans.

    我們還有另一個定位更獨特的領域,我指的可能是中國大陸、台灣和其他國際市場。在這個方面,我們一直在繼續尋找方法,透過將一些東西引入內部並製定應急計劃來減少我們的風險。

  • That's also an area where we are looking at building inventory a little bit in advance of the tariffs, which will provide us more time to evaluate what additional actions we might want to take. And then the third action, which is the largest, is related to Mexico.

    這也是我們正在考慮在關稅之前建立庫存的一個領域,這將為我們提供更多時間來評估我們可能想要採取的額外行動。第三個行動是最大的,與墨西哥有關。

  • We operate a couple of maquiladoras, as you know, that produce a relatively significant amount of product for us here in the US. And if those are impacted, they will be one of, I guess, a few thousand companies that are operating as maquiladoras.

    如您所知,我們經營著幾家加工工廠,它們為我們在美國生產相對大量的產品。如果這些公司受到影響,我猜他們將成為數千家以加工工廠形式運作的公司之一。

  • And we just -- we're developing contingency plans, but we're not necessarily taking action because we're not convinced those are actually going to play out because I think a lot of financial experts predict that if you tariff these thousands of maquiladoras, you're going to create significant inflation across the US, and that seems to be something the administration wants to avoid at the same time.

    我們只是 - 我們正在製定應急計劃,但我們不一定會採取行動,因為我們不相信這些計劃實際上會發揮作用,因為我認為很多金融專家預測,如果你對這數千家加工廠徵收關稅,這將在美國各地造成嚴重的通貨膨脹,而這似乎是政府希望同時避免的。

  • So I'm not saying we -- they're not going to do anything related to Mexico, but if they were, we will have to evaluate and take action accordingly. But we are in a bit of a unique position there because not the -- not all of the industry is leveraging maquiladora -- some of us are, but not everyone.

    所以我並不是說我們——他們不會做任何與墨西哥有關的事情,但如果他們這樣做,我們將必須進行評估並採取相應的行動。但我們在這方面處於一個獨特的地位,因為並非所有行業都在利用加工出口工廠,我們中的一些人,但不是所有人。

  • Greg Burns - Analyst

    Greg Burns - Analyst

  • Okay. And then I think, Sara, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned slower business development this year from where you maybe thought coming into the year or where it would be coming into the year. Is that related to International? Or is that also applied to the Americas segment? And maybe why do you think it's been a little bit slower -- the development, I guess, of the recovery has been slower than thought?

    好的。然後我想,薩拉,在您準備好的發言中,您提到今年業務發展較慢,您可能認為今年或今年的業務發展會放緩。和國際有關係嗎?還是這也適用於美洲市場?也許你認為為什麼有點慢──我猜復甦的發展比想像的慢?

  • Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think my comment was really around the industry projections for growth. So looking at things like BIFMA data and industry data coming into the year, those indicators were suggesting, I would say, a modest industry growth. And as the year has played out in the Americas, the industry projections or the industry actual data has shown flat and slightly negative as a whole across the entire market.

    是的。我認為我的評論實際上是圍繞著行業成長預測展開的。因此,看看今年的 BIFMA 數據和行業數據,我想說,這些指標表明行業溫和成長。隨著美洲地區今年的發展,整個市場的行業預測或行業實際數據總體上表現持平且略顯負面。

  • So my comment was really relative to our interpretation of that industry data in terms of how we were expecting our growth to compare and we've seen that just be a little bit slower. Now as Dave mentioned, we've seen a lot of nice momentum. Of late, we continue to take share.

    因此,我的評論實際上與我們對行業數據的解釋有關,即我們對成長的預期如何比較,我們已經看到成長速度稍慢了一點。現在,正如戴夫所提到的,我們看到了很多良好的勢頭。最近,我們繼續分享。

  • So I think we see a lot of things that give us a positive sense for the future and where momentum may go. And I think really, the broader industry data just goes back to what are we seeing and what are we all expecting with respect to the extent to which organizations have employees return to the office, to what extent -- as they do that, they're making decisions to invest in their spaces and you generate demand.

    因此,我認為我們看到的許多事情讓我們對未來以及動力的走向產生了積極的認識。我認為,更廣泛的行業數據實際上可以追溯到我們所看到的以及我們所有人對組織讓員工返回辦公室的程度的期望,當他們這樣做時,他們'當你做出投資他們的空間的決定時,你就會產生需求。

  • So really, it's how we are thinking about our prospects relative to the industry projections and coming into the year, the industry projections were a bit more optimistic than in hindsight, we see things play out.

    所以,實際上,這就是我們如何考慮相對於產業預測的前景,進入今年,產業預測比事後看來更樂觀,我們看到事情的發展。

  • Greg Burns - Analyst

    Greg Burns - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just lastly, when we look at the guide for the revenue guide for the fourth quarter and the third quarter results, we take them as a whole, like I know there was some favorability in the third quarter in terms of timing of order shipments, so maybe that pulled forward some revenue.

    好的。最後,當我們查看第四季度和第三季度業績的收入指南時,我們將它們視為一個整體,就像我知道第三季度在訂單發貨時間方面有一些有利條件一樣,所以也許這會拉動一些收入。

  • But when you look at the second half, is it coming in, in line with the expectations as a whole? Or is it still below expectations and you expect maybe heading into the year to build momentum as we head into 2016? Like how do we view the second half results and versus maybe what you guided to for 2026?

    但從下半年來看,整體符合預期嗎?還是仍然低於預期,您預計在進入 2016 年時可能會積聚動力?例如我們如何看待下半年的結果以及您對 2026 年的指引?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, it depends on what set of expectations you're talking about. If we go back to the beginning of the year, they're certainly below those level of expectations where we imagined organic growth between 1% to 5% for the full fiscal year with it building with demand levels building as we went through the year.

    嗯,這取決於您所談論的期望。如果我們回到今年年初,它們肯定低於我們想像的整個財年有機增長 1% 至 5% 的預期水平,隨著我們全年需求水平的提高,有機增長也在不斷增加。

  • If you look -- if you compare it to more recent expectations, I would say it's more in line to slightly lower because of the timing of these large project orders coming in a little bit later than we were initially anticipating maybe three to four months ago, five months ago.

    如果你看一下- 如果你將其與最近的預期進行比較,我會說它更符合甚至略低,因為這些大型項目訂單的時間比我們最初預計的時間要晚一些,可能是三到四個月前,五個月前。

  • So it's a little bit softer. But what I feel really good about is that we're coming in on top of or ahead of the range of adjusted earnings we projected for the year, and demand feels like it's building going into next year.

    所以稍微軟一點。但我真正感覺良好的是,我們的調整後收益範圍超出或領先於我們今年預計的調整後收益範圍,而且需求似乎正在持續到明年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Gomes, Noble Capital Markets.

    喬‧戈麥斯,諾布爾資本市場。

  • Joe Gomes - Analyst

    Joe Gomes - Analyst

  • I just wanted to start out on the International side. You talked about some green shoots, so to speak. And just wondering what gives you the confidence or what needs to happen there to get a more sustainable upswing on the revenue and orders on the International side? Is it just improving economies?

    我只是想從國際方面開始。可以這麼說,你談到了一些新芽。只是想知道是什麼給了您信心,或者需要做什麼才能使國際方面的收入和訂單實現更永續的成長?僅僅是改善經濟嗎?

  • Are there some other trends like here in the Americas, we talk a lot about the return to office, although I don't think they have to that same extent in Europe of work from home as we did here in the US. So just trying to get a better handle on what you see needs to happen to really start to drive the top line in the International segment?

    在美洲是否還有其他一些趨勢,我們談論了很多關於重返辦公室的問題,儘管我認為歐洲的在家工作程度不如我們在美國的程度。那麼,只是想更好地處理您認為需要發生的事情,才能真正開始推動國際業務的營收成長嗎?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Certainly, macro is part of it and maybe the bigger part because I agree with your comments about return to office with maybe a few exceptions. And they're pretty important exceptions. Like I don't believe some of the larger markets in Western Europe are quite back as much as some of the smaller or midsized markets have been.

    當然,宏觀是其中的一部分,也許是更重要的部分,因為我同意你關於重返辦公室的評論,也許除了一些例外。它們是非常重要的例外。就像我不相信西歐的一些較大市場的恢復程度不如一些中小型市場。

  • So I still think there's room for potential improvement or demand levels associated with return to office, particularly in Western Europe in some of the largest markets. And then internationally, what we're seeing is, as these large companies are getting back to the office in the US and/or internationally, some of the demand level from our largest global accounts is picking up, and it's showing up not only in the US but in some of the international markets.

    因此,我仍然認為與重返辦公室相關的需求水準還有潛在的改善空間,特別是在西歐的一些最大市場。然後在國際上,我們看到的是,隨著這些大公司重新回到美國和/或國際上的辦公室,我們最大的全球客戶的一些需求水平正在上升,而且不僅表現在美國,但在一些國際市場。

  • And what we are also doing is we're behaving a little bit differently internationally. We're targeting different accounts than we had targeted -- targeting them with a higher level of intention than we had targeted in the past because some of our key core customers had not been in the office and buying at the same levels. So what we're feeling, I think is some green shoots from our actions.

    我們也正在做的是,我們在國際上的行為有所不同。我們的目標客戶與我們的目標不同——目標客戶的意圖比我們過去的目標更高,因為我們的一些關鍵核心客戶沒有在辦公室並以相同的水平進行購買。所以我認為我們的感受是我們的行動帶來了一些新芽。

  • I think we're also feeling some green shoots from the largest global accounts that we serve around the world. And we're also seeing potentially some bottoming and turning off the bottom in a couple of markets that have really struggled in particular China.

    我認為我們也從我們在世界各地服務的最大的全球客戶中感受到了一些萌芽。我們也看到,一些確實陷入困境的市場(尤其是中國)可能會觸底並走出谷底。

  • I don't want to declare today that we're at the bottom and it's turning, but there are definitely signs that the worst could potentially be over. And we've been impacted dramatically in China. And there's still a lot of business opportunity for us to compete for and our sales team are showing that we can win that, those opportunities even though they're different than some of the accounts that we had targeted prior to the pandemic.

    我今天不想宣布我們已處於谷底並且正在發生轉變,但有明確跡象表明最糟糕的情況可能已經過去。我們在中國受到了巨大的影響。我們仍然有很多商業機會可以競爭,我們的銷售團隊表明我們可以贏得這些機會,儘管它們與我們在大流行之前定位的一些客戶不同。

  • Joe Gomes - Analyst

    Joe Gomes - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. That's very helpful. And then with the new administration and some of their efforts, especially on the DOGE, how do you see that impacting your business?

    好的。謝謝。這非常有幫助。然後,隨著新政府和他們的一些努力,特別是在 DOGE 方面,您認為這對您的業務有何影響?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, first and foremost, I will fully support their application to get people back in the office. I think my latest estimates, I think I've read the articles that suggested low single-digit percentage occupancy by some of the federal government agencies that we serve. And we feel some of that in our numbers.

    嗯,首先也是最重要的,我將全力支持他們讓人們重返辦公室的申請。我想我的最新估計,我想我已經讀過一些文章,這些文章表明我們所服務的一些聯邦政府機構的佔用率只有低個位數。我們從我們的數據中感受到了這一點。

  • So I think by them getting back into the office and understanding that the environment needs to transform, we'll see activity levels begin to pick up. There could also be an impact of workforce reduction if they actually implement some of the things that they're suggesting they're going to target.

    因此,我認為,當他們回到辦公室並了解環境需要改變時,我們會看到活動水平開始上升。如果他們真正實施他們建議的一些目標,也可能會產生勞動力減少的影響。

  • So there could be some of negative consequence of that. But if the activity level from a lot of the government is very, very low. And as occupancy improves, it feels like that could improve.

    因此,這可能會產生一些負面後果。但如果很多政府的活動水準非常非常低。隨著入住率的提高,感覺情況還會有所改善。

  • Joe Gomes - Analyst

    Joe Gomes - Analyst

  • Okay. And one last one for me. You talked about the laminate supplier issue. It sounded like that's potentially impact the fourth quarter here. Do you see that potentially going out into fiscal '26 or more if it was to have the impact, it would be just contained to the fourth quarter?

    好的。最後一張是給我的。您談到了層壓板供應商的問題。聽起來這可能會影響第四季。您是否認為,如果要產生影響,可能會持續到 26 財年或更長的時間,這種影響只會被控制在第四季嗎?

  • David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    David Sylvester - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • It's a good question. We're not running that company. And while we've been in it and offered our assistance and I'll state, I believe, they're back up and running in a different location. They've got a lot of pent-up demand that needs to be caught up. And I just am not sure that we'll be through it entirely by the end of the fourth quarter, which is why we chose to and include a couple of remarks in my script today.

    這是一個好問題。我們不經營那家公司。雖然我們一直在其中並提供了幫助,但我要聲明的是,我相信,他們已經在不同的地點恢復並運行。他們有很多被壓抑的需求需要滿足。我只是不確定我們能否在第四季度末之前完全完成它,這就是為什麼我們選擇在今天的腳本中加入一些評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. Ms. Armbruster, I turn the call back over to you.

    目前沒有其他問題。 Armbruster 女士,我將電話轉回給您。

  • Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sara Armbruster - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks. So I just want to thank you all for joining today. As always, we appreciate your interest in Steelcase, and we wish your families and you a safe and happy holiday season.

    謝謝。所以我只想感謝大家今天的加入。一如既往,我們感謝您對 Steelcase 的關注,並祝您的家人和您度過一個安全、快樂的假期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。