Service Corporation International (SCI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to SCI's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI management. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 SCI 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給 SCI 管理層。請繼續。

Good morning. This is Allie O'Connor, AVP of Investor Relations and Financial Reporting. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. We will have prepared remarks about the quarter from Tom and Eric in just a moment. But before that, let me quickly go over to the safe harbor language.

早安.我是艾莉‧奧康納 (Allie O'Connor)，投資人關係與財務報告副總裁。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我們很快就會準備好湯姆和艾瑞克關於本季的評論。但在此之前，讓我快速回顧一下安全港語言。

Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results differ materially from those contemplated in such statements.

我們的管理團隊發表的任何陳述我們對未來的計劃、信念、期望或預測的評論均屬於前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預期的結果有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website. Today, we might also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and on our website.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們的收益發布以及我們網站上向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。今天，我們可能也會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施的調節可以在我們的收益發布末尾的表格和我們的網站上找到。

With that out of the way, I will now turn it over to Tom Ryan, Chairman and CEO.

解決這個問題後，我現在將把它交給董事長兼首席執行官湯姆·瑞安 (Tom Ryan)。

Thanks, Allie. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some high-level color on our business performance for the quarter, then provide some greater detail around our funeral and cemetery results. I will then close with some thoughts regarding our earnings expectations for the rest of 2024, and preliminary thoughts about 2025.

謝謝，艾莉。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天早上，我將首先對我們本季的業務表現進行一些高層介紹，然後提供有關我們的葬禮和墓地業績的更多細節。最後，我將談談我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的獲利預期以及對 2025 年的初步想法。

For the third quarter, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $0.79, which compared to $0.78 in the prior year. Gross profit from both the funeral and cemetery segments was relatively stable. Below the line, the favorable impact of a lower share count and a lower tax rate was nearly offset by increased corporate general and administrative expense caused by changes in our total shareholder return and its corresponding effect on our long-term incentive compensation plan, as well as increased interest expense resulting in a net $0.01 increase in earnings per share.

第三季度，我們調整後每股收益為 0.79 美元，而去年同期為 0.78 美元。殯葬及墓園分部毛利相對穩定。在線下，股份數量減少和稅率降低的有利影響幾乎被股東總回報變化及其對長期激勵薪酬計劃的相應影響導致的公司一般和管理費用增加所抵消。 。

We also had a very active quarter on the business acquisition front. We invested $123 million during the quarter into top-tier businesses in growing major metropolitan markets, adding 10 funeral homes and 2 cemeteries. We are excited to welcome our new teammates into the SCI family. We also invested an additional $31 million in real estate transactions for the expansion of our footprint of funeral homes and cemeteries in our existing markets.

我們在業務收購方面也經歷了一個非常活躍的季度。本季度，我們向不斷增長的主要大都市市場的頂級企業投資了 1.23 億美元，增加了 10 個殯儀館和 2 個墓地。我們很高興歡迎新隊友加入 SCI 大家庭。我們還額外投資了 3,100 萬美元用於房地產交易，以擴大我們在現有市場中的殯儀館和墓地的足跡。

Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues increased $7 million or about 1% over the prior year quarter. Comparable core funeral revenue provided $4 million of the $7 million revenue increase, as core average grew by 2%, absorbing a 30 basis point increase in the core cremation rate. This growth was attained even with the core funeral volume decline of 1%, which was better than we had expected for the quarter.

現在讓我們更深入地了解本季的葬禮結果。可比殯葬總收入比去年同期增加了 700 萬美元，約 1%。700 萬美元收入成長中，可比較的核心殯葬收入貢獻了 400 萬美元，核心平均成長了 2%，吸收了核心火葬率 30 個基點的成長。儘管核心殯葬量下降了 1%，但仍實現了這一增長，這比我們對本季的預期要好。

SCI Direct non-funeral home (inaudible) sales revenue decreased by $5 million, primarily due to a decline in sales production, as we transition from trust to insurance funded contracts, and by the effect of operational changes in certain markets with respect to the timing of merchandise deliveries.

SCI Direct 非殯儀館（聽不清楚）銷售收入減少了 500 萬美元，主要是由於我們從信託資助合約過渡到保險資助合約時銷售產量下降，以及某些市場的營運變化對時間安排的影響的商品交付。

Core general agency and other revenue grew $8 million, primarily due to growth in general agency revenue, driven by higher average commission rates, resulting from our new preneed insurance marketing agreement as well as the effect of selling a heavier mix of underwritten insurance products, which carry higher commission rates versus a flex or non-underwritten product.

核心一般代理和其他收入增長了 800 萬美元，主要是由於我們新的保險營銷協議以及銷售更多承保保險產品組合的影響，平均佣金率上升，推動了一般代理收入的增長。產品相比，佣金率更高。

Funeral gross profit declined slightly by about $2 million, while the gross profit percentage declined 50 basis points to just over 19%. This decrease was in line with our expectations as inflationary increases in our fixed costs slightly outpaced our 1% revenue growth.

殯葬毛利小幅下降約200萬美元，毛利百分比下降50個基點至略高於19%。這一下降符合我們的預期，因為我們固定成本的通膨增長略高於我們 1% 的收入增長。

Preneed funeral sales production decreased by $22 million or about 7% over the third quarter of 2023. Core preneed funeral sales production decreased by $14 million or 6%, primarily due to the transition to our new preneed insurance provider during the quarter. We anticipate comparable core preneed sales production to normalize over the coming months.

與 2023 年第三季相比，普雷尼德葬禮銷售額減少了 2,200 萬美元，約 7%。核心婚前葬禮銷售收入下降了 1400 萬美元，即 6%，主要是由於本季向新的婚前保險提供者過渡。我們預計未來幾個月可比的核心預需銷售產量將恢復正常。

Non-funeral home preneed sales production decreased $8 million or 10% as SCI Direct transitions from trust to insurance funded contracts. This transition required many of our sales counselors to obtain insurance licenses, which caused a temporary slowdown in sales, but this, too, should stabilize and grow again in the coming quarters.

隨著 SCI Direct 從信託合約過渡到保險資助合同，非殯儀館預售產值減少了 800 萬美元，即 10%。這一轉變要求我們的許多銷售顧問獲得保險執照，這導致銷售暫時放緩，但在未來幾個季度，銷售應該會穩定並再次成長。

Now shifting to cemetery. Comparable cemetery revenue was flat as compared to the prior year quarter as a $5 million increase in other revenue was offset by a $5 million decrease in core revenue. The $5 million decline in core revenue was primarily the result of a $4 million decline in atneed revenue, combined with a $1 million decline in total recognized preneed growth.

現在轉移到墓地。可比墓地收入與去年同期持平，其他收入增加 500 萬美元，被核心收入減少 500 萬美元所抵銷。核心收入下降 500 萬美元，主要是由於 atneed 收入下降 400 萬美元，加上確認的 preneed 增長總額下降 100 萬美元。

Breaking the components of recognized preneed revenue apart, recognized preneed merchandise and service revenue growth of $10 million from higher-quality contract sales averages being delivered out of the backlog was offset by a decline of $11 million in recognized preneed property revenue.

將確認的預售收入的組成部分分開，確認的預售商品和服務收入增長了1000 萬美元，這是由於積壓訂單中交付的更高質量的合同銷售平均收入增長了1000 萬美元，但被確認的預售財產收入下降了1,100 萬美元所抵銷。

Other revenue grew by $5 million compared to the prior year quarter, primarily from an increase in endowment care trust fund income as we continue to expand our total return investment strategy through successful industry and legislative efforts. Comparable preneed sales production decreased by $8 million or about 3%, primarily due to a decline in large sales, while our core production was relatively flat.

與去年同期相比，其他收入增長了 500 萬美元，主要來自捐贈護理信託基金收入的增加，因為我們透過成功的行業和立法努力繼續擴大我們的總回報投資策略。可比預需銷售產量減少了 800 萬美元，約 3%，主要是由於大量銷售下降，而我們的核心產量相對持平。

For each of the last three quarters, we've generated around $40 million in large sales. Prior to 2023, we had only achieved this milestone once in our history. Last year, we averaged about $48 million per quarter in the second, third and fourth quarters. In the face of these very challenging comparisons, our sales results remain very strong.

過去三個季度，我們每個季度都產生了約 4000 萬美元的大額銷售額。2023 年之前，我們歷史上僅實現過一次這項里程碑。去年，我們第二、第三和第四季的平均每季營收約為 4,800 萬美元。面對這些非常具有挑戰性的比較，我們的銷售業績仍然非常強勁。

At our largest location, Rose Hills, our customer access to some of our new premium sections has been limited this year due to ongoing development activities. We anticipate we will return to low to mid-single-digit growth in 2025, and we continue to see long-term strength in our premium cemetery inventory and sales production.

在我們最大的地點玫瑰山 (Rose Hills)，由於正在進行的開發活動，我們的客戶今年對一些新的高級區域的訪問受到限制。我們預計到 2025 年我們將恢復中低個位數成長，並且我們繼續看到優質墓地庫存和銷售產量的長期強勁。

Cemetery gross profits in the quarter increased by $1 million and the gross profit percentage increased by 10 basis points, generating an operating margin of 32%. While revenues were flat, growth in higher-margin trust fund income and managing our fixed cost expense growth below 3% allowed us to grow gross profits modestly.

該季度公墓毛利增加了 100 萬美元，毛利百分比增加了 10 個基點，營業利潤率為 32%。雖然收入持平，但利潤率較高的信託基金收入的成長以及將固定成本支出成長控制在 3% 以下，使我們的毛利得以小幅成長。

Now let's shift to a discussion about our outlook for the remainder of 2024. Our current outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 for adjusted earnings per share is $1 to $1.10, representing expected growth of 8% to 18% compared to $0.93 of adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2023.

現在讓我們討論一下我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的展望。我們目前對 2024 年第四季調整後每股收益的預期為 1 至 1.10 美元，與 2023 年第四季調整後每股收益 0.93 美元相比，預期成長 8% 至 18%。

We expect to grow both comparable funeral and cemetery margins in the fourth quarter, primarily from the impact of higher general agency revenues from our new preneed marketing agreement on the funeral side, then on the cemetery segment from the favorable impact stemming from the servicing of our merchandise and service preneed backlog, coupled with endowment care fund trust income. Increased profits from recent acquisitions and lower corporate general and administrative costs will be somewhat offset by higher tax rate.

我們預計第四季度殯葬和墓地利潤率將實現增長，這主要是由於我們在殯葬方面新簽訂的營銷協議帶來的一般代理收入增加的影響，然後是墓地領域由於我們的服務產生的有利影響。商品和服務需要積壓，加上退休基金信託收入。最近收購帶來的利潤增加以及企業一般和管理成本的降低將在一定程度上被較高的稅率所抵銷。

As we think about 2025, we are optimistic that we can return to earnings per share growth towards the higher end of our historical annual guidance of 8% to 12%. We anticipate funeral volumes to stabilize as compared to 2024 levels and preneed cemetery sales production to return to low to mid-single digit percentage growth. We are highly confident we can grow general agency revenues impressively with our new preneed insurance marketing agreement.

展望 2025 年，我們樂觀地認為每股盈餘成長能夠恢復到歷史年度指引的上限 8% 至 12%。我們預計葬禮數量將穩定於 2024 年的水平，並需要墓地銷售產量恢復到低至中個位數百分比增長。我們非常有信心透過我們新的預需保險行銷協議能夠大幅增加總代理收入。

The negative effects of comparably higher interest rates and lower SCI Direct profits from operational changes in 2024 should trend positive in 2025. And finally, the contributions from the fantastic class of acquisitions in 2024 should provide another positive trend for 2025.

2024 年營運變化帶來的相對較高的利率和較低的 SCI 直接利潤的負面影響應該會在 2025 年呈現正面趨勢。最後，2024 年一系列出色收購的貢獻應該會為 2025 年帶來另一個正面趨勢。

Beyond that is where I truly feel excited. With our vast North American network containing market-leading brands and businesses, a world-class workforce and a robust $16 billion preneed backlog. We are poised to capture incremental value for our shareholders as future demographic trends have a very positive impact on our industry.

除此之外，才是我真正感到興奮的地方。我們龐大的北美網路包含市場領先的品牌和企業、世界一流的員工隊伍以及 160 億美元的強勁積壓訂單。由於未來的人口趨勢對我們的行業產生非常積極的影響，我們準備為股東獲取增量價值。

In conclusion, I want to acknowledge and thank the entire SCI team for their daily commitment to our customers, our communities and one another. Your dedication is the foundation of our success. Thank you for making a difference every day.

最後，我要感謝整個 SCI 團隊每天對我們的客戶、社群和彼此的承諾。您的奉獻是我們成功的基礎。感謝您每天都在改變。

With that, operator, I'll now turn the call over to Eric.

話務員，我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Tom. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to kind of start the way Tom just ended. So before we get too much into the financial prepared remarks, I want to address all of our associates tuning in this morning and I want to express my sincere gratitude to you and your unwavering dedication to our communities as well as the client families that you serve, let's face it, during their most challenging times.

謝謝，湯姆。大家早安。我將以湯姆剛結束的方式開始。因此，在我們深入討論財務準備的講話之前，我想對今天早上收聽的所有員工致以誠摯的感謝，感謝你們對我們社區以及您所服務的客戶家庭的堅定不移的奉獻，讓我們面對現實吧，在他們最具挑戰性的時期。

What you are doing is truly amazing. And whether your are on that family-facing frontline or on a home office support role, your commitment and hard work truly make a difference and are deeply appreciated by all of us in senior management. So thank you for everything that you do.

你所做的事情確實令人驚奇。無論您是在面向家庭的前線還是在家庭辦公室擔任支援角色，您的承諾和辛勤工作確實會產生影響，並受到我們所有高階管理層的深深讚賞。所以感謝你所做的一切。

So with that, I'm going to start the prepared remarks by discussing our cash flow results and then move into capital investments during the quarter. I'll then make a few comments on corporate G&A expense and our current financial position before concluding with some updates on some guidance, specifically related to cash flow.

因此，我將首先討論我們的現金流結果，然後討論本季的資本投資。然後，我將對公司的一般管理費用和我們當前的財務狀況發表一些評論，然後最後對一些指導（特別是與現金流相關的指導）進行一些更新。

So during the quarter, our adjusted cash flow remained strong as we reported adjusted operating cash flow of $269 million. This exceeded our expectations internally and is an increase of more than $41 million or 18% over the prior year. The primary drivers for the strong cash flow growth were favorable working capital sources of $54 million in the quarter. This continued to benefit from higher customer cash receipts derived mainly from previous preneed cemetery installment sales.

因此，在本季度，我們的調整後現金流仍然強勁，調整後營運現金流為 2.69 億美元。這超出了我們的內部預期，比前一年增加了 4,100 萬美元以上，即 18%。現金流強勁成長的主要驅動力是本季 5,400 萬美元的有利營運資金來源。這繼續受益於主要來自先前墓地分期付款銷售的客戶現金收入增加。

So over the last couple of years, we've seen a significant increase in our preneed cemetery sales, particularly during COVID. We generally finance these sales over a four to five year period and continue to see the benefits of the strong installment cash receipts as a result. These higher working capital sources were partially offset by our lower adjusted operating income of about $12 million during the quarter and higher cash interest of about $6 million, which is primarily related to the higher debt balances.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們看到我們的預需墓地銷售量顯著增加，特別是在新冠疫情期間。我們通常會在四到五年內為這些銷售提供資金，並繼續看到由此帶來的強勁分期現金收入的好處。這些較高的營運資金來源被本季調整後營業收入降低（約 1,200 萬美元）和現金利息增加（約 600 萬美元）所部分抵消，這主要與較高的債務餘額有關。

Cash taxes in the quarter were flat year-over-year. And as we've discussed several times now over the past several quarters, this year has benefited from a tax accounting method change related to the timing of recognition of cemetery property revenue. Looking forward beyond 2024, we expect cash taxes to revert to a more normalized level, which will result in an anticipated increase of about $150 million in annual cash tax payments in 2025 compared to 2024, and then we'll continue at that more normalized level in the years beyond that.

該季度的現金稅與去年同期持平。正如我們在過去幾個季度中多次討論的那樣，今年受益於與確認墓地財產收入的時間相關的稅務會計方法的變化。展望 2024 年以後，我們預計現金稅將恢復到更正常化的水平，這將導致 2025 年的年度現金稅支付預計比 2024 年增加約 1.5 億美元，然後我們將繼續保持這一更正常化的水平在那之後的歲月裡。

So now let's talk about the capital investment during the quarter. We are very excited about the investments that we made during this particular quarter. We invested a combined $320 million of capital, which is allocated back into our existing businesses, purchased or constructed new businesses and returned capital to our shareholders.

現在我們來談談本季的資本投資。我們對本季的投資感到非常興奮。我們總共投資了 3.2 億美元的資本，這些資金被分配回我們現有的業務、購買或建立新業務並將資本回饋給我們的股東。

This is the highest quarterly investment rate for 2024 and $40 million higher than our prior year quarter. Specifically, we invested $88 million into maintenance capital in the quarter, which was slightly higher than our expectations due to some timing of some projects. So let's break that down a little further.

這是 2024 年最高的季度投資率，比去年同期高出 4,000 萬美元。具體來說，我們在本季度投入了 8,800 萬美元的維護資本，由於某些項目的某些時間安排，這一數字略高於我們的預期。那麼讓我們進一步分解一下。

We deployed $44 million to high yielding cemetery inventory development projects. And again, that supports future preneed cemetery sales growth, 37% of maintenance capital to maintain our current best-in-class facilities and $7 million into digital investments and corporate initiatives. Additionally, we also invested $13 million in growth capital to expand some of our existing funeral homes and construct some new funeral homes as well.

我們部署了 4400 萬美元用於高收益墓地庫存開發項目。再次，這支持了未來需要的墓地銷售成長、37% 的維護資本來維持我們當前一流的設施以及 700 萬美元的數位投資和企業計劃。此外，我們還投資了 1300 萬美元的成長資本來擴大一些現有的殯儀館並建造一些新的殯儀館。

Now let's talk about the acquisitions, which was a particular highlight for us during the quarter. As Tom has already mentioned, we successfully closed on several significant businesses in major markets for a total of $123 million of spend. This brings our 2024 investment on acquisitions to $162 million, which significantly exceeds our typical range of $75 million to $125 million on an annual basis. We are happy to welcome all of these new associates from these acquisitions to the SCI family.

現在讓我們來談談收購，這對我們來說是本季的一個特別亮點。正如 Tom 已經提到的，我們成功關閉了主要市場的幾項重要業務，總支出達 1.23 億美元。這使得我們 2024 年的收購投資達到 1.62 億美元，大大超出了我們每年 7,500 萬至 1.25 億美元的典型範圍。我們很高興歡迎這些收購中的所有新員工加入 SCI 大家庭。

In addition to acquiring these businesses, we also spent $31 million purchased in real estate in California, Florida and Texas, some of our largest states, as you know for future development of cemeteries and funeral homes. Lastly, in terms of capital return to shareholders, we returned nearly $65 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter, and this is through $44 million of dividends and $21 million of share repurchases.

除了收購這些企業之外，我們還斥資 3,100 萬美元在加利福尼亞州、佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州（我們最大的州）購買了房地產，如您所知，用於墓地和殯儀館的未來開發。最後，在股東資本回報方面，本季我們透過 4,400 萬美元的股利和 2,100 萬美元的股票回購向股東返還了近 6,500 萬美元的資本。

So let's talk about those repurchases for a second. Year-to-date, we purchased about 2.7 million shares at an average price of just around $71, resulting in just under 145 million shares outstanding as of the end of the quarter. Subsequent to the quarter, we've also repurchased another $25 million in shares, bringing the total year-to-date capital return to shareholders to $353 million, about a little over $130 million in dividends and a little over $220 million of share repurchases.

那麼讓我們來談談這些回購。今年迄今為止，我們以約 71 美元的平均價格購買了約 270 萬股股票，截至本季末，流通股數略低於 1.45 億股。本季結束後，我們也回購了另外 2,500 萬美元的股票，使年初至今股東資本回報總額達到 3.53 億美元，其中股息約略高於 1.3 億美元，股票回購略高於 2.2 億美元。

So now let's shift to corporate G&A, where we incurred $44 million in the quarter, which is a little bit higher than our $38 million to $40 million that we expected as the normally quarterly range of 2024. The increase was primarily due to higher long-term incentive compensation on plans that were supported by growth in total shareholder return or TSR during the quarter. We remain comfortable with the fourth quarter range in '24 of $38 million to $40 million for normal corporate G&A expense.

現在讓我們轉向企業管理及行政費用，本季我們產生了 4,400 萬美元，略高於我們預期的 2024 年正常季度範圍 3,800 萬至 4,000 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於本季度股東總回報或股東總回報率增長所支持的計劃的長期激勵薪酬增加。我們對 2024 年第四季正常企業管理及行政費用的範圍為 3,800 萬至 4,000 萬美元感到滿意。

So I'd like to share a few updates also on our solid financial position. And in September, just to remind you, we issued eight year $800 million note at a 5.75% rate, which we used to repay about $780 million of our long-term bank credit facility. This transaction was immediately accretive as we effectively swapped 7.4% debt for (inaudible) debt, which calculates to about a $11 million to $12 million savings on an annual basis.

因此，我想分享一些有關我們穩健的財務狀況的最新資訊。謹提醒您，我們在 9 月發行了 8 億美元的八年期票據，利率為 5.75%，我們用該票據償還了約 7.8 億美元的長期銀行信貸額度。這項交易立即增值，因為我們有效地將 7.4% 的債務換成了（聽不清楚）債務，每年可節省約 1,100 萬至 1,200 萬美元。

Additionally, this transaction also meaningfully increased our liquidity because it freed up availability on this long-term bank credit facility. At the end of the quarter, we had liquidity of about $1.5 billion, made up of $185 million of cash on hand, plus about $1.3 billion now available on this long-term bank credit facility. Our leverage at the end of the quarter increased slightly to 3.78 times on a net debt-to-EBITDA basis, putting us near the midpoint of our 3.5 times to 4 times targeted range.

此外，這項交易還有意義地增加了我們的流動性，因為它釋放了長期銀行信貸安排的可用性。截至本季末，我們擁有約 15 億美元的流動性，其中包括 1.85 億美元的手頭現金，加上目前可用於長期銀行信貸安排的約 13 億美元。以淨負債與 EBITDA 計算，本季末我們的槓桿率小幅上升至 3.78 倍，接近 3.5 倍至 4 倍目標範圍的中點。

Now let's shift a little bit to going forward and cash flow guidance. Cash flows remained strong, driven by better than expected cash flows from preneed cemetery installment receipts as well as a somewhat lower cash taxes. As a result, as you saw, we're raising the midpoint of our 2024 adjusted cash flow from operation guidance range from a midpoint of $930 million to $950 million. This resulted in a 2024 range of $940 million to $960 million and specifically a range of $230 million to $250 million for the fourth quarter.

現在讓我們稍微轉向一下未來和現金流指導。現金流量仍然強勁，這得益於預付款墓地分期付款收入的現金流量好於預期以及現金稅有所降低。因此，正如您所看到的，我們將 2024 年調整後現金流的中點從營運指引範圍的中點 9.3 億美元上調至 9.5 億美元。這導致 2024 年的收入範圍為 9.4 億美元至 9.6 億美元，特別是第四季度的收入範圍為 2.3 億美元至 2.5 億美元。

Also, our expectation for total maintenance CapEx guidance remains unchanged for the full year of '24 at about $325 million. So looking beyond '24, I'd now like to give you some high level color on our 2025 cash flow expectations.

此外，我們對 2024 年全年總維護資本支出指引的預期保持不變，約為 3.25 億美元。因此，展望 24 年後，我現在想向您介紹我們 2025 年現金流預期。

To neutralize cash taxes for a second and talk before cash taxes, our cash flow in '25 should be positively impacted by our expected earnings growth that Tom just discussed as well as expect a continued strength in this preneed installment cash receipts.

為了暫時中和現金稅並在現金稅之前談談，我們在 25 年的現金流應該受到湯姆剛才討論的預期盈利增長的積極影響，並預計本次分期付款現金收入將持續強勁。

From a CapEx perspective, while we're initially expecting the capital to maintain our field locations and cemetery development spend to be slightly higher than '24 levels, we expect continued moderation in our digital investments and corporate initiatives headed into next year, which really results in our overall maintenance capital will be generally flat in '25 to '24 levels.

從資本支出的角度來看，雖然我們最初預計資本將維持我們的現場地點和墓地開發支出略高於24 年的水平，但我們預計明年我們的數位投資和企業計劃將繼續放緩，這確實會導致我們的整體維護資本將大致持平在'25至'24水準。

So in closing, our cash flow remains a key strength of our company, and combined with our strong balance sheet, should allow us to maintain the financial flexibility to keep providing value to our shareholders. I want to once again thank our entire SCI team for their invaluable contributions each and every day.

因此，總而言之，我們的現金流量仍然是我們公司的關鍵優勢，加上我們強大的資產負債表，應該使我們能夠保持財務靈活性，繼續為股東提供價值。我想再次感謝我們整個 SCI 團隊每天做出的寶貴貢獻。

So with that, operator, this wraps up our prepared remarks. And now we'll pass it back to you and open the floor up to questions.

那麼，操作員，我們準備好的發言就到此結束了。現在我們將把它傳回給您並開始提問。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

史考特‧施內伯格，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to start out the discussion, cemetery preneed sales. Just want to get a sense for maybe recognized revenue here into the end of the year and into 2025 and more so in 2025. Thinking about where, based on what you're seeing ending '24, what type of levels you think would be reasonable? With any commentary about large sales appreciated as well. Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。我想開始討論，墓園需要販售。只是想了解今年年底和 2025 年以及 2025 年可能確認的收入。考慮一下，根據你所看到的 24 年結局，你認為哪種類型的關卡是合理的？任何有關大銷售的評論也值得讚賞。謝謝。

Sure, Scott. So as you think about the fourth quarter, again, we've got a really tough comparison, particularly in the, when you think about large sales, I think it was around $48 million. So that's a big one to overcome when you think about production.

當然，斯科特。因此，當您考慮第四季度時，我們再次進行了非常艱難的比較，特別是當您考慮大額銷售額時，我認為約為 4800 萬美元。因此，當您考慮生產時，這是一個需要克服的重大問題。

On the recognition front, last year, we had a pretty big influx, and this is typically seasonal in the fourth quarter of recognized projects that get completed. And I think this year will be slightly below last year, but in line with that, and so a lot bigger than the third quarter. But when you compare back to the fourth quarter, it's pretty comparable, slightly below.

在認可方面，去年，我們有相當大的湧入，這通常在第四季度完成的認可項目中是季節性的。我認為今年的數據將略低於去年，但與去年一致，因此比第三季大得多。但當你與第四季度進行比較時，你會發現它相當可比，略低於。

As you think about '25, I think, from a sales production and recognition basis, we feel pretty confident, again, that we can get back to traditional growth levels. And again, I know that's been, it's been a long time, but we kind of model that in the low to mid-single digit percentage range.

當你想到 25 世紀時，我認為，從銷售產量和認可度的角度來看，我們再次非常有信心，我們可以回到傳統的成長水平。再說一遍，我知道這已經過去很長一段時間了，但我們在低到中個位數的百分比範圍內進行了建模。

I do think we know that the COVID epidemic had an impact on funeral volumes. Funeral volumes are lead sources for cemetery. And so we kind of feel like '25 is the year volumes stabilize, and we believe preneed sales will stabilize and get back to traditional growth levels.

我確實認為我們知道新冠疫情對葬禮數量產生了影響。殯葬卷是墓園的主要來源。因此，我們感覺 25 年是銷量穩定的一年，我們相信預售銷售將穩定並恢復到傳統的成長水平。

Thanks. And Tom, just on large sales, I heard you mention Rose Hills has some ongoing construction that may prohibit timing on that. Does that play into what we saw in the quarter? Or was it purely just year-over-year comps being so challenging?

謝謝。湯姆，就大宗銷售而言，我聽說您提到玫瑰山正在進行一些建設，可能會限制施工時間。這是否符合我們在本季所看到的情況？還是只是逐年比較如此具有挑戰性？

Yes. If you look at, for instance, just take Rose Hills, I mean, to show you how significant it is. Traditionally, large sales last year probably ran $9 million, $10 million in the quarter. They're running $5 million a quarter right now.

是的。例如，如果你看一下玫瑰山，我的意思是，向你展示它有多重要。傳統上，去年的大額銷售額可能為 900 萬美元，本季為 1,000 萬美元。他們現在每季的收入為 500 萬美元。

So that's a pretty big delta, and that's solely based upon, we're not finished with the section and have the ability to take customers up there and see it. But that will be open in 2025 as an example. So I'd expect Rose Hills to be a growth opportunity when you think about large sales for next year.

所以這是一個相當大的增量，這完全是基於我們還沒有完成這個部分，並且有能力帶領客戶去那裡看到它。但以 2025 年開放為例。因此，當你考慮明年的大銷售時，我預計玫瑰山將成為一個成長機會。

Thanks, I appreciate that. And then just on the funeral side, and I'll turn it over. What gives confidence for flattish volume growth in '25 as perhaps another year of reversion post the pandemic pull forward? Just want to get a sense of what you're seeing there and tying in that funeral preneed was a little weaker than we expected in the quarter? Just some thoughts on what the kind of run rate should be on that going forward of the status quo? Thanks so much.

謝謝，我很感激。然後就在葬禮方面，我會把它翻過來。是什麼讓我們對 25 年銷量持平成長充滿信心，因為疫情可能會導致另一年的回歸？只是想了解您在那裡看到的情況，並且葬禮前的需求比我們本季的預期要弱一些？只是對現狀的運作率應該是多少有一些想法？非常感謝。

Sure. So on funeral volumes, I think it's just, we've had these models that we've, again, it's a bit of a guess. But we anticipate that there's still pull-forward effects. But again, we think the markets are growing. We think we're beginning to see increases in death as it relates to the demographics of the population.

當然。所以在葬禮卷上，我認為這只是，我們已經有了這些模型，我們再次，這有點猜測。但我們預計仍然存在拉動效應。但我們再次認為市場正在成長。我們認為我們開始看到死亡人數增加，因為這與人口統計有關。

So our models just show it flattening out in 2025, and then getting it into slight gross post that. And again, that could be off a little bit one way or the other, but we're pretty confident that it's going to be somewhere near that. On preneed funeral, I would expect that is going to get a lot better. I mean, we talked a little bit about it. There's so much change going on for both core sales and SCI Direct sales.

因此，我們的模型只是顯示它在 2025 年會趨於平穩，然後在之後會略有下降。再說一次，這可能會有點偏離，但我們非常有信心它會接近這個水平。在葬禮前，我希望情況會好得多。我的意思是，我們對此進行了一些討論。核心銷售和 SCI 直銷都發生了很大的變化。

So on the core side, one, we're transitioning to a new contract, a new provider. And two, I think we talked about a little bit before. We were uncomfortable with the fact that we sold a lot of what we call our flex product, which didn't give our customers protection during the payment cycle. So we've spent a lot of time with our new partner saying how do we onboard more people into an underwritten insurance product, which gives them that protection.

因此，在核心方面，第一，我們正在過渡到新合約、新提供者。第二，我想我們之前談過一點。我們對我們銷售的大量所謂的彈性產品感到不安，這些產品在付款週期內沒有為我們的客戶提供保護。因此，我們花了很多時間與新合作夥伴討論如何讓更多的人加入承保的保險產品，從而為他們提供保護。

And so that has caused a little bit of a hiccup as you think about people before that have a hard time getting underwritten for a variety of reasons, health and others. It's just a complicated process. We think that's starting to stabilize. And so when I think about '25, I think we're going to get back to traditional levels of growth when you think about the core product.

因此，這引起了一些小問題，因為您會想到之前人們由於各種原因（健康等）而很難獲得承保。這只是一個複雜的過程。我們認為這種情況已經開始穩定下來。因此，當我想到 25 年時，當你考慮核心產品時，我認為我們將回到傳統的成長水平。

SCI Direct is a little bit different in that not only are we, we're transitioning from a trust product to an insurance product. And so there, if you think about it, to sell an insurance product, you need to be licensed. So we have quite a few sales counselors that needed to obtain that license. So that may take a little bit longer, I'd say, to stabilize and grow.

SCI Direct 有點不同，我們不僅是，而且我們正在從信託產品過渡到保險產品。因此，如果你想一想，要銷售保險產品，你需要獲得許可。因此，我們有相當多的銷售顧問需要獲得該許可證。所以我想說，這可能需要更長的時間才能穩定和成長。

But I'd expect, in the back half of 2025, that's back to growing at pretty traditional growth levels. So that's the reason. And Scott, there's really no other. I think people want to be protected, and we're going to provide a great insurance product, a better insurance product than we had before.

但我預計，到 2025 年下半年，經濟將恢復到相當傳統的成長水準。這就是原因。還有史考特，真的沒有其他人了。我認為人們希望受到保護，我們將提供出色的保險產品，比以前更好的保險產品。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

托比·索默，真理主義者。

Thanks. I was hoping you could dig into this new insurance relationship? And maybe given, like you said, some of the changes in selling and products and organization, maybe talk about the lower efficiency that you might have had here near term? And what kind of delta you could have in the sales force as you go into next year when things are a little bit more settled, so to speak?

謝謝。我希望你能深入探討一下這種新的保險關係？也許正如您所說，銷售、產品和組織方面的一些變化，也許可以談談您近期可能遇到的效率較低的問題？可以這麼說，當你進入明年，當事情變得更加穩定時，你的銷售團隊可以擁有什麼樣的增量？

Yes. I think, Tobey, like we said, if you look back historically, if you take cemetery, we grow in the low to mid-single digits. I think core funeral, we'd expect to be able to get back to that low to mid-single digit. And when you look at SCI Direct, because of the way it sells, and traditionally, it's probably more like a mid single to potentially high single digit type of growth production.

是的。我認為，托比，就像我們說的，如果你回顧歷史，如果你以墓地為例，我們的成長速度是中低個位數。我認為核心葬禮，我們預計能夠回到低至中個位數。當你觀察 SCI Direct 時，由於它的銷售方式，而且傳統上，它可能更像是中個位數到潛在高個位數類型的成長產量。

And again, I think those are going to phase in at different times. I would expect SCI Direct to take a little more time because of the whole licensing complication. But all of this, like I said, we chose to take this pause, if you will, and we, if you think about SCI Direct, we're losing somewhere close to, what, like $11 million, $12 million of profitability historically by having some of these changes.

再說一次，我認為這些將在不同的時間逐步實施。由於整個許可的複雜性，我預計 SCI Direct 會花費更多的時間。但這一切，就像我說的，如果你願意的話，我們選擇暫停，如果你考慮一下 SCI Direct，我們正在損失接近 1100 萬美元、1200 萬美元的歷史利潤。

The good news is, we're really setting ourselves up for some tremendous growth. When you think about SCI Direct, we're going to be deferring. We delivered merchandise before. We're not going to deliver it anymore once we're done. So a contract out of the backlog of SCI Direct preneed going at need might have been $1,200. It's going to be, it's going to grow to $2,500, $3,000.

好消息是，我們確實正在為實現巨大的成長做好準備。當你想到 SCI Direct 時，我們就會延後。我們之前有出貨過。完成後我們將不再交付。因此，SCI Direct 待售訂單中的一份合約可能需要 1,200 美元。它將增長到 2,500 美元、3,000 美元。

You're going to begin to see these contracts flow through funeral operations and have a natural growth pattern because we have such a tremendous backlog. So again, it's temporary. I think from a sales production perspective, back to those low to mid single digit on the core side and mid to high when you think about SCI Direct functioning on all cylinders.

你將開始看到這些合約流經殯葬業務並具有自然增長模式，因為我們有如此巨大的積壓。再說一遍，這只是暫時的。我認為從銷售生產的角度來看，當你考慮 SCI Direct 在所有氣缸上的功能時，回到核心側的低到中個位數和中到高。

Thanks. The acquisitions were pretty sizable in the quarter. Does the pipeline remain strong? And are you, in this post-COVID period. Are you seeing mom and pops sort of more willing to sell? Do you have an expectation that the strength could continue?

謝謝。本季的收購規模相當大。管道是否仍然強勁？身處後新冠疫情時期的你呢？您是否發現媽媽和流行音樂更願意出售？您是否期望這種強勢能夠持續下去？

Yes, Tobey, this is Eric. I think we continue to be excited about the pipeline in the industry. I think every sellers decision is a little bit different, and I don't think I can kind of generalize it to just talk about COVID. But I think there's a good healthy pipeline of the type of independents and acquisition opportunities that we'd be very interested in. A lot of that is major metropolitan areas. It's larger combination facilities.

是的，托比，這是艾瑞克。我認為我們仍然對該行業的管道感到興奮。我認為每個賣家的決定都有點不同，我不認為我可以將其概括為只談論新冠病毒。但我認為我們非常感興趣的獨立類型和收購機會的良好健康管道。其中很多是主要大都會區。這是更大的組合設施。

Those types of things are what we're excited about. That's what we were able to close on during this particular quarter. Those deals have been in the pipeline for a while, and we're very glad to have them, but there's more to come. I think the official guidance is going back to the $75 million to $125 million spend next year, like I said in the remarks.

這些類型的事情讓我們感到興奮。這就是我們在這個特定季度能夠實現的目標。這些交易已經醞釀了一段時間，我們很高興能達成這些交易，但還有更多交易即將到來。我認為官方指導明年的支出將回到 7500 萬至 1.25 億美元，就像我在評論中所說的那樣。

But we certainly hope to be at the high end or even exceed it next year, like we did this year, but it ebbs and flows. And a lot of that is the seller's decision, not necessarily our decision or when we want to do it. But when the seller does raise the hand and are ready for a liquidity event, as you could tell, we have a significant amount, $1.5 billion of liquidity, that we're able to move very quickly, very fast in a favorable environment.

但我們當然希望明年能達到高端甚至超過它，就像我們今年所做的那樣，但它有起有落。其中很多是賣方的決定，不一定是我們的決定或我們想何時做。但是，當賣方確實舉手並準備好應對流動性事件時，正如您所知，我們擁有大量的 15 億美元流動性，我們能夠在有利的環境中非常快速地採取行動。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Joanna Gajuk, Bank of America.

喬安娜·加尤克，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe first, just a clarification on the comment on the funeral loans next year to be flattish. That's organic, isn't it?

嗨，早安。非常感謝您提出問題。也許首先，先澄清明年喪葬貸款的評論是否平淡。那是有機的，不是嗎？

Yes. That's same store organic.

是的。那是同一家商店的有機產品。

Okay. Right. Exactly. Because we're just talking about all these acquisitions. So I just want to clarify that. I guess, two other questions. So when you talk about switching to cemetery, you talk about this large preneed sales had tough comp, and then, I guess, the Rose Hills, some limitations there.

好的。正確的。確切地。因為我們只是在談論所有這些收購。所以我只想澄清這一點。我想還有兩個問題。因此，當您談論轉向墓地時，您會談論這種巨大的預售銷售具有艱難的競爭，然後，我猜，玫瑰山，那裡有一些限制。

Can you talk about these large preneed sales compared to 2019? So I understand last year was very active. And also, when thinking about these large sales, are those delayed? Is there any indications that these clients might come back in Q4?

您能談談與 2019 年相比這些巨大的預售銷售嗎？所以我知道去年非常活躍。而且，當考慮到這些大筆銷售時，這些銷售是否會被推遲？是否有任何跡象表明這些客戶可能會在第四季度回歸？

Yes. So if you go back to '19, my memory serves me, it's, we're probably around $100 million annually in large sale production. And now we're running at a rate of closer to $160 million, $170 million. So when you think about pre-COVID, we've had 60%, 70% type of growth. And that's why I tried to say in the comments, even though we're down year-over-year, and we can get down on ourselves, we're really operating at a very high rate.

是的。所以，如果你回到 19 年，我記得，我們​​每年的大宗銷售產量可能約為 1 億美元。現在我們的運行速度接近 1.6 億美元、1.7 億美元。因此，當你考慮新冠疫情之前的情況時，我們已經實現了 60%、70% 的成長。這就是為什麼我試圖在評論中說，儘管我們逐年下降，我們可以對自己感到沮喪，但我們的營運速度確實非常高。

Now a lot of that's because we've taken the concept of these beautiful high-end gardens and estates, and we put that in different parts of the country. We've got a great team that's developing that inventory, pricing that inventory, training. So we've been able to expand the places that do it.

現在，這很大程度上是因為我們採用了這些美麗的高端花園和莊園的概念，並將其應用到了該國的不同地區。我們擁有一支出色的團隊，負責開發庫存、定價和培訓。所以我們已經能夠擴大這樣做的地方。

Now Rose Hill, I go back to, it's probably 25% of our high-end production every year. So that's why, if I may say, why don't we bring it up? Because it's big. And if it's down, it's hard to overcome. It's a good problem to have. We take it every week.

現在，我回到羅斯希爾，這可能占我們每年高端產量的 25%。所以，如果我可以說的話，我們為什麼不提出這個問題呢？因為它很大。而一旦陷入低谷，就很難克服。這是一個好問題。我們每週都會服用。

So that's, we're operating at today, again, at a very high level. And I'd expect those type of levels to continue, Joanna, as we look forward. We're seeing deals out there. So there's nothing that we believe is going to impede at this time, our ability to execute that. Just a tough (inaudible) for second and third quarter. And we have another tough one, by the way, in the fourth quarter. But beyond that, we feel really good..

所以，我們今天再次以非常高的水準運作。喬安娜，正如我們所期望的那樣，我希望這種水平能夠繼續下去。我們看到那裡有優惠。因此，我們認為目前沒有任何事情會妨礙我們執行該計劃的能力。第二季和第三季只是艱難（聽不清楚）。順便說一句，我們在第四季還有另一個艱難的時刻。但除此之外，我們感覺真的很好......

Okay. That's good color. Thank you. And I guess, on P&O margins, right, the improvement you see from Q2, especially, and this 19% in this quarter is much better than, call it, 16% in 2019, in the third quarter, right, because that tends to be lowest. So is this, I guess, a new runway? And I guess, is this already benefiting from this new insurance contract? Or how should we think about kind of full year funeral margins, considering the benefits of the senior insurance contract?

好的。這顏色真好啊謝謝。我想，就 P&O 利潤率而言，尤其是第二季的改善，本季的 19% 比 2019 年第三季的 16% 好得多，因為這往往會最低。我猜這是一條新跑道嗎？我想，這是否已經從這份新的保險合約中受益了？或者考慮到高級保險合約的好處，我們應該如何考慮全年喪葬利潤？

Yes. I mean a lot of the improvements that you're referring to back to '19 is really from the core business and from SCI Direct. It really has nothing to do with just pure latency. We're seeing a little bit of that in the quarter helping us, but we anticipate it will be a much bigger factor to the positive when you think about funeral margins in 2025. So we'd anticipate our margins to go up again, maybe 100 to 150 basis points is a fair way to think about, if we execute the way that we think we can in 2025.

是的。我的意思是，您提到的 19 年的許多改進實際上來自核心業務和 SCI Direct。它實際上與純粹的延遲無關。我們在本季度看到了一些對我們有幫助的因素，但我們預計，當你考慮 2025 年的葬禮利潤時，這將是一個更大的積極因素。因此，如果我們按照我們認為的方式在 2025 年執行，我們預計利潤率將再次上升，也許 100 到 150 個基點是一個合理的考慮方式。

Great. Thank you. And if I may squeeze a last one funeral, the cremation shift, why it was only 40 bps? That's the fourth consecutive quarter of that should be below what you had been describing previously, being like a trend of [100, 150]. So is that enough to call it a new trend? Or then are we kind of in the new paradigm, where, maybe that shift headwind is smaller now? Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。如果我可以擠最後一場葬禮，即火葬班，為什麼只有 40 個基點？這是連續第四個季度應該低於你之前描述的，就像一個趨勢[100, 150]。那麼這足以稱之為新趨勢嗎？或者說，我們是否處於新的範式中，也許現在這種轉變的阻力更小了？謝謝。

We debate that internally all the time. I think my personal opinion is, it does ebb and flow. I still am not sure, maybe 150 basis points that we used to say is not in this reality realm anymore. But I still think it could be 100 basis points a year. Some of that is just the fact that we have so much cremation now. In order to move the needle, it takes quite a bit. It's just a large base of business.

我們內部一直在爭論這個問題。我認為我個人的觀點是，它確實有潮起潮落。我還是不確定，也許我們過去常說的150個基點已經不再是現實了。但我仍然認為每年可能會上漲100個基點。其中一些原因是我們現在有太多的火葬。為了移動針，需要相當多的時間。這只是一個龐大的商業基地。

Thank you.

謝謝。

A J Rice, UBS.

A J Rice，瑞銀集團。

Hi, everybody. A couple of questions, if I could. So the anticipation that volumes might start to trend a little more positive. Obviously, we've been through a period of time where the forecast has been flat to down on atneed volumes. Any, what would you say is underpinning your thoughts that we'll start to see that turn more positive?

大家好。如果可以的話，有幾個問題。因此，對成交量的預期可能會開始變得更加積極。顯然，我們經歷了一段時期，需求量的預測一直持平甚至下降。您認為什麼支撐著您的想法，我們將開始看到這種情況變得更加正面？

I think it's a combination of things, A.J. But first and foremost is, I just think the pull forward effect lessens every year as we model that out, that it's going to get smaller and smaller as we go forward. And then the second thing is, again, the population has grown, demographics are shifting in that direction. We feel like we're competing pretty aggressively in our markets.

我認為這是多種因素的結合，A.J.但首先也是最重要的是，我認為隨著我們的建模，拉動效應每年都會減弱，隨著我們的前進，它會變得越來越小。第二件事是，人口再次成長，人口結構正朝這個方向轉變。我們覺得我們在市場上的競爭非常激烈。

We've got a great preneed backlog. So all these things kind of roll into our thinking. But the biggest one probably of that is that the pull-forward effect just continues to diminish as we model it out. Now it doesn't go away, but we overcome it with the other things that I mentioned.

我們有大量的預需積壓訂單。所以所有這些事情都進入了我們的思維。但其中最大的一個可能是，隨著我們對其進行建模，前拉效應會繼續減弱。現在它並沒有消失，但我們透過我提到的其他事情克服了它。

And just to think about, I haven't asked you about this in a while, but with some of the volatility in volumes this year. And also, frankly, on the cemetery production side, when you think about that pull-forward dynamic, the lingering effects of COVID, either, and how it might affect the demand for preneed cemetery property sales or in the atneed funeral side, have you changed your thinking? What's the updated thinking versus what you guys laid out at your Investor Day a couple of years ago about the pull-forward effect and where we're at in all of that?

想一想，我已經有一段時間沒有問過你這個問題了，但今年的交易量出現了一些波動。而且，坦白說，在墓地生產方面，當你考慮這種拉動動態、新冠疫情的揮之不去的影響，以及它可能如何影響對需要墓地的房地產銷售或需要葬禮方面的需求時，你有嗎？與幾年前你們在投資者日上提出的關於前拉效應以及我們目前所處的位置相比，最新的想法是什麼？

(inaudible) I think it's kind of trending the way we think. And I think when you have a little less volume on the funeral side, we anticipate a little less lease when you think about kind of the core funeral sale. It shouldn't impact large sales, quite honestly, but more along the lines of the core business. You just have less lead to follow up on.

（聽不清楚）我認為這是我們思考的趨勢。我認為，當葬禮方面的銷售量稍微減少時，當您考慮核心葬禮銷售時，我們預計租賃量會減少一些。老實說，它不應該影響大量銷售，而應該更多地影響核心業務。您只是需要跟進的線索較少。

I think the correlation is like 53%, 54%, and that's been true for really the last 10 years. So there's definitely that. So that's why we feel, if we say volume is going to flatten out, that makes us feel better about cemetery sales production, particularly as it relates to good leads that we get through our atneed business.

我認為相關性大約是 53%、54%，過去 10 年都是如此。所以肯定是這樣的。因此，這就是為什麼我們覺得，如果我們說銷量將會趨於平緩，這會讓我們對墓地銷售生產感覺更好，特別是因為它與我們透過我們的需求業務獲得的良好線索有關。

Okay. Great. And then on the acquisitions, the step-up in pace there. It sounds like maybe some of these transactions are in markets where you already have a presence, which will presumably make them potentially even more accretive than just an outright purchase. Is that true? Can you talk about pricing, ability to contribute? Is that part of your comfort with expressing a return to sort of the high end of the growth targets, what you've seen on acquisitions more recently?

好的。偉大的。然後是收購，步伐加快。聽起來也許其中一些交易是在您已經存在的市場中進行的，這可能會使它們比直接購買更具增值性。這是真的嗎？您能談談定價、貢獻能力嗎？您最近在收購中看到的成長目標高端的回歸是您感到滿意的一部分嗎？

No, the growth target itself, acquisitions will be a piece to that. And obviously, when you're able to spend money that's well above $160 million, $170 million, not sure what we will close before year-end. So it could be a little bit higher, A.J. versus the target of roughly midpoint of $100 million. That's going to have a nice accretive perspective in these deals.

不，成長目標本身，收購將是其中的一部分。顯然，當你能夠花費遠遠超過 1.6 億美元、1.7 億美元的錢時，不確定我們會在年底前關閉什麼。所以可能會高一點，A.J.與大約 1 億美元中點的目標相比。這些交易將會有一個很好的增值前景。

You can assume, and we're precluded in some of these contracts to talk too much about it right now in terms of it. But you can assume, as I mentioned, that they're in major markets. And as you (technical difficulty) and many others have talked about before, there are definitely some cost synergies that we're able to apply to that. But for the most part, these are good businesses that had good revenue streams.

你可以假設，我們現在不能在其中一些合約中過多地談論它。但正如我所提到的，您可以假設它們位於主要市場。正如您（技術難度）和許多其他人之前談到的那樣，我們肯定可以應用一些成本協同效應。但在大多數情況下，這些都是擁有良好收入來源的好企業。

And there's no need and no desire to go in and change any type of the top line dynamics whatsoever. And a lot of these owners are still involved, and they're expected to continue to do more of the same, and there won't be adjustments moving forward from that perspective. We're just happy to have these very high-quality businesses, especially in tuck-in situations, which, as you said, makes it more ultimately accretive for our shareholders.

沒有必要也沒有意願去改變任何類型的營收動態。許多業主仍然參與其中，預計他們將繼續做更多相同的事情，從這個角度來看，未來不會有任何調整。我們很高興擁有這些非常高品質的業務，尤其是在隱藏的情況下，正如您所說，這最終會為我們的股東帶來更大的價值。

Great. And then maybe last thing. We don't often ask you about this, but intra-quarter, there was an announcement about some management changes, updates, et cetera. Any perspective you can provide us on what you guys are doing there?

偉大的。然後也許是最後一件事。我們不常問你這個問題，但在季度內，有關於一些管理層變動、更新等的公告。您可以向我們提供有關您在那裡所做的事情的任何看法嗎？

A.J., this is, as you well know, a lot of companies is the same way. But I think we've taken it very seriously with the Board succession planning because, inevitably, it's going to occur. And with Steve's willing to take a step back and as he approaches retirement, that kind of triggered a lot of decisions. But it was pretty easy to do because we had a succession plan.

A.J.，如你所知，很多公司都是同樣的方式。但我認為我們非常認真地對待董事會繼任計劃，因為這種情況不可避免地會發生。隨著史蒂夫願意退一步，當他接近退休時，這引發了許多決定。但這很容易做到，因為我們有一個繼任計畫。

And so we're excited about the elevated responsibilities for the executives that we named in there, and I think it's going to add a lot of value in different perspectives. So I think the whole company is excited about it. And again, I don't think there's any big surprises. These are, were part of a long-term plan we've been working on for quite some time.

因此，我們對我們任命的高階主管的責任提升感到興奮，我認為這將從不同的角度增加很多價值。所以我認為整個公司都對此感到興奮。再說一次，我不認為有什麼大的驚喜。這些是我們已經研究了一段時間的長期計劃的一部分。

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

好的，太好了。多謝。

Parker Snure, Raymond James.

帕克·斯努爾，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning. This is Parker on for John Ransom. And sorry if I asked anything that was said on, I missed the beginning of the call. But the preneed cemetery selling, I know you noted the lower-end consumer is kind of hold in there, flat year-over-year. I know you guys have done some changes over the past couple of years or maybe just losing some of the payment terms on some of those contracts.

嘿，早安。這是帕克為約翰·蘭塞姆發言。抱歉，如果我問了任何內容，我錯過了通話的開始。但我知道你注意到，低端消費者在墓地銷售中保持著穩定的狀態，與去年同期持平。我知道你們在過去幾年中做了一些改變，或者可能只是失去了其中一些合約的一些付款條件。

What would you, I guess, attribute the lower end stability to? Is it just kind of core resilience in the lower-end consumer? Is it some of the loosening of the payment terms? Is there anything else that you would note just on that segment?

我想，您將低端穩定歸因於什麼？這只是低端消費者的核心彈性嗎？是不是付款條件有所放鬆？就該部分而言，您還有什麼需要注意的嗎？

There's not any type of loosening of payment terms or anything along those lines. There's really not even unusual incentives that are in there that are creating a situation where it's compressing the margin of these sales. There's some pull-forward effect going on, as we've said, and we'll continue to grow. We need that volume to help us as the number one lead source.

付款條件沒有任何形式的放鬆或類似的情況。實際上，甚至沒有什麼不尋常的激勵措施造成了壓縮這些銷售利潤的情況。正如我們所說，存在一些拉動效應，我們將繼續成長。我們需要這本書來幫助我們成為第一大主要來源。

And we think we'll continue to get a little bit better on that, as we've already said, from going from down 2-ish percent to maybe flattish next year. It will help that, help our sales counselors get in front of more customers.

正如我們已經說過的，我們認為我們將繼續在這方面取得更好的進展，從下降 2% 左右到明年可能會持平。這將有助於幫助我們的銷售顧問在更多客戶面前展示。

But there's not any type of changing of terms or incentives or anything along those lines that's occurring in these situations. We're here for the long term, and we're not panicked at all in the short term. We feel very good about the future, especially preneed cemetery.

但在這些情況下，條款或激勵措施或任何類似的事情都沒有任何類型的變化。我們是長期存在的，短期內我們一點也不驚慌。我們對未來感覺非常好，尤其是需要墓地。

Okay. And then late in the third quarter, early fourth quarter, there was obviously some big hurricanes down in Florida. I know you guys have a decent amount of exposure in Florida and the Southeast. Did you see an impact kind of late in the third quarter, early fourth quarter, whether it be on funeral volumes or some of the preneed selling activity?

好的。然後在第三季末、第四季初，佛羅裡達州顯然出現了一些大型颶風。我知道你們在佛羅裡達州和東南部有相當多的曝光率。您是否在第三季末、第四季初看到了某種影響，無論是葬禮數量還是一些預先需要的銷售活動？

Well, anything to do with funeral volumes is really just kind of a delay, right? I mean it's something that was going to happen one week would need to happen in the next week. We did have, I'd say, a shutdown of a week or 10 days essentially related to those particular markets, western Florida going all the way across Florida as well, related to preneed cemetery. But ultimately, we've bounced back from that as well. Maybe there's a little bit of, call it, $0.01 or $0.02 for the quarter of a headwind related to it.

好吧，任何與葬禮卷有關的事情實際上只是一種拖延，對吧？我的意思是，這週會發生的事情需要在下週發生。我想說，我們確實關閉了一周或十天，這基本上與那些特定的市場有關，佛羅裡達州西部以及整個佛羅裡達州也與預先需要的墓地有關。但最終，我們也從這個問題中恢復過來。與之相關的季度逆風可能會帶來一點點，稱之為 0.01 美元或 0.02 美元。

But as a general statement, the business is resilient. Most importantly, for us as a management team, our associates ended up okay and their houses and such and their personal situations, which we're very concerned about. And we're very pleased that we pulled together and we're able to manage through it the way that we did.

但總的來說，該業務具有彈性。最重要的是，對於我們管理團隊來說，我們的員工最終都安然無恙，他們的房子等等以及他們的個人情況，這些都是我們非常關心的。我們很高興我們齊心協力，能夠以我們的方式度過難關。

Okay. And if I can just get one last one. Yes, just more of a high level question on the acquisitions. When you're acquiring these smaller kind of regional or mom and pop operators, what types of things are you doing when you're going through the integration process? I'm assuming it's things like overlaying some of your preneed selling, integrating the type platform?

好的。如果我能得到最後一件就好了。是的，只是關於收購的更高層次的問題。當您收購這些規模較小的區域性或夫妻經營業者時，您在整合過程中會做哪些類型的事情？我假設它是像覆蓋一些你需要的銷售、整合類型平台之類的東西？

And how should we think about some of the synergies that you're able to realize on these deals? And maybe the effective multiple or how you're able to work down the purchase multiple down to the effective multiple over the course of a few years when you're doing these acquisitions?

我們應該如何考慮您在這些交易中能夠實現的一些協同效應？也許是有效倍數，或者當您進行這些收購時，如何在幾年內將購買倍數降低到有效倍數？

Well, what I was saying before is that multiples really haven't changed. It's the pipeline that's filling, and we're still paying very fair multiples. So you can call that kind of 8 times to 10 times EBITDA pre-synergies. I think we get a turn pretty quick for some of the synergies we have just based on our scale. We have both local scale within a market, especially a major market. And we have national scale with the purchasing power of the size of our company being, by far, the largest in the industry.

嗯，我之前說過的是，倍數確實沒有改變。這是管道正在填充，我們仍然支付非常公平的倍數。因此，您可以將這種 8 到 10 倍的 EBITDA 稱為預協同效應。我認為，基於我們的規模，我們很快就能獲得一些協同效應。我們在市場，尤其是主要市場內都有本地規模。我們具有全國規模，我們公司規模的購買力是迄今為止行業中最大的。

So that's going to get you something right away, almost a turn right away. And the rest of the things are really, talking about new revenue streams that we had that maybe an independent didn't or better ways to go about utilizing our Salesforce CRM processes and some of the other things that were utilized, the technology that made us so much better and more efficient out of COVID.

所以這會讓你立刻得到一些東西，幾乎是馬上就轉一圈。其餘的事情實際上是在談論我們擁有的新收入流，這些收入流可能是獨立機構沒有的，或者是利用我們的 Salesforce CRM 流程以及其他一些已使用的東西的更好方法，這些技術使我們疫情過後，一切變得更好、更有效率。

But for the most part, the underlying businesses and the revenue streams are very solid, and we're not going in and adjusting those for call in different plays, especially in the situations which we're most happy where a lot of these former owners have stayed on and become part of our management team, which helps it to be even more of an accretive situation over the long term with their leadership staying with SCI.

但在大多數情況下，基礎業務和收入流非常穩固，我們不會根據不同的情況進行調整，尤其是在我們最高興的情況下，其中有很多前所有者留下來並成為我們管理團隊的一部分，從長遠來看，他們的領導力留在SCI，這有助於我們的管理團隊更加增值。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to SCI management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 SCI 管理階層，讓其發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, everybody, for being on the call today. Happy Halloween, and we will speak to you at our fourth quarter earnings call in February. Thanks so much.

謝謝大家今天接電話。萬聖節快樂，我們將在二月的第四季財報電話會議上與您交談。非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。