Service Corporation International (SCI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the SCI Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI management. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 SCI 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議轉交給 SCI 管理層。請繼續。

Good morning. This is Debbie Young. Welcome today to our fourth quarter earnings call. We're going to have some prepared remarks about the quarter as well as our outlook for this year in just a moment. But before that, let me quickly go over the safe harbor language.

早安.這是黛比·楊。歡迎今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。我們稍後將就本季以及今年的前景發表一些準備好的評論。但在此之前，讓我快速回顧一下安全港語言。

Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website.

我們的管理團隊發表的任何陳述我們對未來的計劃、信念、期望或預測的評論均屬於前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預期的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們的收益發布以及我們網站上向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and also on our website. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Tom Ryan, Chairman and CEO.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將討論某些非公認會計原則財務指標。這些指標的調節可以在我們的收益發布末尾的表格以及我們的網站上找到。現在，我將把它交給董事長兼首席執行官湯姆·瑞安 (Tom Ryan)。

Thanks, Debbie. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some high-level color on our business performance for the quarter, and provide some greater detail around our solid funeral and cemetery results. I will then close with some thoughts about our 2024 financial outlook.

謝謝，黛比。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天早上，我將首先對我們本季的業務表現進行一些高層介紹，並提供有關我們可靠的葬禮和墓地業績的更多細節。最後，我將談談對我們 2024 年財務前景的一些想法。

For the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $0.93, which compares to $0.92 in the prior year. We were able to generate growth in earnings per share over the prior year as higher cemetery revenues driven by a 9% increase in preneed cemetery sales in a strong funeral sales average together more than overcame the effects of the anticipated funeral volume decline. Resulting in a $0.04 increase in earnings per share from operations.

第四季度，我們調整後每股收益為 0.93 美元，而去年同期為 0.92 美元。與前一年相比，我們的每股收益有所增長，因為在強勁的葬禮銷售平均水平下，墓地銷售增長了9%，從而帶動了墓地收入的增加，這超過了預期葬禮數量下降的影響。每股營運收益增加 0.04 美元。

Below the line, the 280 basis point rise in interest rates on our variable rate debt and a higher debt balance increased our interest expense, reducing earnings per share by $0.08. This higher interest rate expense was partially offset by a lower tax rate and the favorable impact of a lower share count. As we accelerated our share repurchase cadence during the fourth quarter, utilizing $204 million to repurchase some 3.6 million shares at an average price of just above $57.

在此線之下，我們的可變利率債務利率上升了 280 個基點，債務餘額增加，增加了我們的利息支出，使每股收益減少了 0.08 美元。較低的稅率和較少股份數量的有利影響部分抵消了較高的利率費用。第四季我們加快了股票回購節奏，利用 2.04 億美元以略高於 57 美元的平均價格回購了約 360 萬股股票。

Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues declined $13 million or about 2% over the prior year quarter, primarily due to an expected decrease in core funeral volume. Although core funeral volume declined 6% compared to the prior year quarter, we believe due to the COVID pull-forward effects. Volumes were in line with what we'd anticipated. Notably, funeral volumes were about 10% higher than fourth quarter 2019 levels.

現在讓我們更深入地了解本季的葬禮結果。可比葬禮總收入比去年同期下降了 1,300 萬美元，約 2%，主要是由於核心葬禮數量的預期下降。儘管核心葬禮數量與去年同期相比下降了 6%，但我們認為這是由於新冠疫情的拉前效應。成交量符合我們的預期。值得注意的是，葬禮數量比 2019 年第四季的水平高出約 10%。

Our core average revenue per service grew over the prior year quarter by an impressive 4% and even after absorbing the negative effects of a modest 50 basis point increase in information mix. From a profit perspective, funeral gross profit declined by $8 million while the gross profit percentage decreased by 100 basis points to about 22%. Lower fixed costs and reduced incentive compensation expense over the prior year quarter, slightly negated the negative impact from the revenue decline. Preneed funeral sales production grew an impressive $12 million or about 4% over the fourth quarter of 2022. Both the core and the SCI Direct channels experienced impressive sales production growth.

即使在吸收了資訊組合適度增長 50 個基點的負面影響之後，我們每項服務的核心平均收入仍比去年同期增長了 4%，令人印象深刻。從利潤角度來看，殯葬毛利潤下降了800萬美元，毛利率下降了100個基點至22%左右。與去年同期相比，固定成本下降和激勵補償費用減少，略微抵消了收入下降的負面影響。 Preneed 葬禮銷售產量比 2022 年第四季成長了 1,200 萬美元，增幅約為 4%。核心通路和 SCI Direct 通路的銷售產量均出現了令人印象深刻的成長。

Now shifting to cemetery. Comparable cemetery revenue increased by an impressive $35 million or about 8% compared to the prior year fourth quarter. Recognized preneed revenue accounted for the preponderance of the increase growing by $33 million or 11%. This growth is primarily due to the growth in preneed cemetery sales production of $30 million or more than 9% over the prior year quarter. We also saw increased preneed merchandise and service revenue generated from higher delivered units and contract averages as compared to the prior year quarter.

現在轉移到墓地。與去年第四季相比，墓園的可比收入增加了 3,500 萬美元，增幅約為 8%。確認的預需收入佔成長的主要部分，成長了 3,300 萬美元，即 11%。這一增長主要是由於預需墓地銷售收入增長了 3000 萬美元，比去年同期增長了 9% 以上。與去年同期相比，我們還發現交付量和合約平均數的增加帶來了預需商品和服務收入的增加。

The $30 million increase in preneed cemetery sales production was generated from both large sales and from core cemetery production, each contributing about half of the preneed cemetery sales production growth. While sales contract velocity was slightly down over the prior year quarter, we are still 8% higher than 2019 levels and production is being generated by a smaller, more effective and efficient sales team.

預需要墓地銷售產量增加了 3000 萬美元，這來自於大額銷售和核心墓地生產，兩者均貢獻了預需要墓地銷售產量增長的約一半。雖然銷售合約速度較去年同期略有下降，但仍比 2019 年水準高出 8%，且生產是由規模較小、效率更高的銷售團隊產生的。

Cemetery gross profits in the quarter increased by $17 million and the gross profit percentage grew by 110 basis points to over 34% and primarily due to the increase in cemetery revenue.

該季度墓地毛利增加了 1,700 萬美元，毛利百分比增加了 110 個基點，達到 34% 以上，這主要是由於墓地收入的增加。

Now let's shift to a discussion about our outlook for 2024. As you saw in our earnings release, we provided a normalized earnings per share guidance range of $3.50 to $3.80 for 2024 or midpoint of $3.65. As we explained last quarter, this is slightly ahead of our projections that we provided at our Investor Day in May 2022. After accounting for the unanticipated material increase in interest rates on our variable rate debt. At the time, we had assumed the 2% rate would grow to 3.5% in 2023 and continue into 2024 and based on the Fed dot plot at the time.

現在讓我們轉向討論我們對 2024 年的展望。正如您在我們的財報中看到的，我們提供的 2024 年每股收益指引範圍為 3.50 美元至 3.80 美元，中間值為 3.65 美元。正如我們上季度所解釋的，這略高於我們在 2022 年 5 月投資者日提供的預測。考慮到我們的可變利率債務利率出現意外大幅上漲。當時，根據當時的聯準會點陣圖，我們假設 2% 的利率將在 2023 年升至 3.5%，並持續到 2024 年。

Our current rate approximates 7.5%. So we were very wrong, but we did have a lot of company. As we think about comparing 2024 expectations to our 2023 normalized earnings per share, the midpoint we are guiding to is closer to 5% growth versus the standard 10% historical midpoint expectation.

我們目前的利率約為 7.5%。所以我們錯了，但我們確實有很多同伴。當我們考慮將 2024 年預期與 2023 年標準化每股收益進行比較時，我們指導的中點更接近 5% 的增長，而標準的 10% 歷史中點預期則更接近。

The waning effect of excess deaths, including COVID impacts not only funeral volume but atneed cemetery revenue and slightly reduces the normalized growth expectation in preneed cemetery sales production as we talked about last quarter. This, coupled with a higher year-over-year interest rate backdrop, particularly in the early part of the year, will have a dampening effect on our annual earnings per share growth expectations for 2024. We believe that in 2025, we should return to our normalized earnings per share growth expectation of 8% to 12%. We expect to capitalize on opportunities during 2024 by further utilizing our scale that should enhance the margins in both our funeral and cemetery segments into 2025 and beyond.

正如我們上季度談到的那樣，包括新冠病毒在內的過量死亡的影響逐漸減弱，不僅影響葬禮量，還影響墓地收入，並略微降低了墓地銷售產量的正常化增長預期。再加上同比利率上升，特別是在今年年初，將對我們 2024 年每股收益成長預期產生抑製作用。我們認為，到 2025 年，我們應該回到我們的正常化每股收益成長預期為8%至12%。我們預計將在 2024 年抓住機遇，進一步利用我們的規模，從而在 2025 年及以後提高殯葬和墓地領域的利潤率。

We're also excited about continuing to invest capital to grow our network. We are investing in our existing funeral locations, renovating and modernizing our venues to create a more celebratory and contemporary setting. We're increasing our cemetery inventory options with both the casketed and cremation consumer to accommodate an increasingly diverse customer base that values a variety of unique memorialization offerings. The acquisition pipeline looks very good at this point, and we continue to increase new market share opportunities due to construction of new funeral home facilities and in certain instances, establish new cemeteries in our existing high-growth areas across North America.

我們也很高興繼續投資資金來發展我們的人脈。我們正在投資現有的葬禮地點，對場地進行翻新和現代化改造，以創造一個更喜慶和現代的環境。我們正在增加棺材和火葬消費者的墓地庫存選擇，以適應日益多樣化的客戶群，這些客戶群重視各種獨特的紀念產品。目前的收購管道看起來非常好，由於建造新的殯儀館設施，我們繼續增加新的市場份額機會，在某些情況下，我們還在北美現有的高成長地區建立新的墓地。

Finally, we expect to continue to enhance shareholder value through growing our dividend and continuing our opportunistic approach to shrinking our equity base, while protecting our strong balance sheet by managing the debt maturity profile and leverage ratios.

最後，我們希望透過增加股利和繼續採取機會主義方式來縮小股本基礎，繼續提高股東價值，同時透過管理債務到期狀況和槓桿率來保護我們強勁的資產負債表。

In conclusion, I'd like to thank the entire SCI team for all that you continue to do every day for our customers, our communities and each other. You are what makes our company great. With that, operator, I'll now turn the call over to Eric.

最後，我要感謝整個 SCI 團隊每天為我們的客戶、社群和彼此所做的一切。你們讓我們的公司變得偉大。話務員，我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Tom. I'm going to start really where you just left off and begin my remarks as I usually do by expressing my gratitude all of our gratitude to each of our 25,000-plus associates. Thank you for all that you do to provide outstanding service to our over 600,000 client families that our company served in 2023 during the customer's most difficult and trying times in these situations. Thank you for providing superior service to both our customers and our communities.

謝謝，湯姆。我將從您剛才停下來的地方開始我的講話，就像我通常所做的那樣，向我們 25,000 多名員工中的每一位表示感謝。感謝您在 2023 年客戶最困難和最艱難的時期為我們公司服務的超過 600,000 個客戶家庭所做的一切。感謝您為我們的客戶和社區提供優質的服務。

So with that, I'd like to say good morning to everyone on the call. Today, as usual, I'll first discuss our cash flow results and capital investments for the quarter and the full year 2023. I'll then provide details of our 2024 cash flow and capital investment outlook and will include some comments on our financial position as we conclude our prepared remarks.

因此，我想向參加電話會議的所有人說早安。今天，像往常一樣，我將首先討論我們2023 年季度和全年的現金流結果和資本投資。然後我將提供2024 年現金流和資本投資前景的詳細信息，並將包括對我們財務狀況的一些評論在我們結束準備好的演講時。

So in the fourth quarter, we generated strong adjusted operating cash flow of $278 million. This was $107 million higher than the prior year. This exceeded our expectations for the quarter, and enabled us to finish the year just above the high end of our most recent annual guidance range of $225 million to $275 million. The largest factors driving this year-over-year increase includes about $75 million of favorable working capital, primarily associated with stronger cash receipts on prior period installment sales and the timing of certain payables.

因此，在第四季度，我們產生了 2.78 億美元的強勁調整後營運現金流。這比前一年增加了 1.07 億美元。這超出了我們對本季度的預期，使我們能夠以略高於最新年度指導範圍 2.25 億至 2.75 億美元的上限的方式完成今年的工作。推動這一同比增長的最大因素包括約 7500 萬美元的有利營運資金，這主要與前期分期付款銷售的現金收入增加以及某些應付款項的時間安排有關。

Also included, though, in the $75 million is the timing of a payroll tax payment that occurred last year, if you remember, related to the CARES Act of 2020 which resulted in just over a $20 million benefit this year to cash flow.

不過，如果您還記得的話，這 7500 萬美元中還包括去年發生的工資稅支付時間，該稅與 2020 年 CARES 法案相關，該法案導致今年的現金流收益略高於 2000 萬美元。

Cash tax payments of $4 million during the quarter were also lower than the prior year by about $33 million, we expected that. And again, that's due to a tax accounting method that I've discussed in prior quarters. These sources of cash flow more than offset $16 million of higher interest payments, primarily caused by higher interest rates on the floating rate portion of our total debt. So on a full year basis, we ended 2023 with adjusted operating cash flow of $882 million at 7% or $57 million higher than the prior year. This additional cash flow was reinvested into our company, and also return to our shareholders, which now I'll touch on.

我們預計，本季支付的 400 萬美元現金稅也比前一年減少了約 3,300 萬美元。同樣，這是由於我在前幾個季度討論過的稅務會計方法。這些現金流來源足以抵銷 1,600 萬美元的較高利息支出，這主要是由於我們總債務中浮動利率部分的利率較高所致。因此，就全年而言，我們 2023 年底的調整後營運現金流為 8.82 億美元，成長 7%，比上年增加 5,700 萬美元。這筆額外的現金流被重新投資到我們公司，並返回給我們的股東，現在我將談到這一點。

So in the fourth quarter, we invested a total of $109 million into our current facilities, new growth opportunities and real estate. So let's go ahead and break this down. We invested $82 million of maintenance capital back into our current businesses with $41 million of cemetery development, $31 million into our funeral and cemetery locations and $9 million into our digital strategies and other corporate investments.

因此，在第四季度，我們總共向現有設施、新成長機會和房地產投資了 1.09 億美元。那麼讓我們繼續分解這個問題。我們將8,200 萬美元的維護資金投入到我們目前的業務中，其中4,100 萬美元用於墓地開發，3,100 萬美元用於我們的葬禮和墓地地點，900 萬美元用於我們的數位策略和其他企業投資。

For the full year, we invested a total of $324 million, which was down $10 million from the prior year, but about $14 million or so above the high end of the guidance range that we talked about last quarter. And this really occurred because our cemetery development spend was higher than expected in this fourth quarter as we accelerated some spend during the fourth quarter to position our cemeteries with relevant high-return inventory as we enter 2024.

全年我們的投資總額為 3.24 億美元，比上年減少了 1000 萬美元，但比我們上季度討論的指導範圍的上限高出約 1400 萬美元左右。這確實發生了，因為我們第四季度的墓地開發支出高於預期，因為我們在第四季度加快了一些支出，以便在進入 2024 年時為我們的墓地提供相關的高回報庫存。

We also invested $27 million of growth capital in the quarter towards the purchase of real estate construction of new funeral homes and the expansion of existing funeral homes and cemeteries. This brought our total 2023 growth capital spend to about $94 million, which was up $40 million from 2022 as we identified meaningful opportunities to invest in future greenfield cemetery as well as funeral projects for the future.

我們還在本季度投資了 2700 萬美元的成長資本，用於購買新殯儀館的房地產建設以及現有殯儀館和墓地的擴建。這使得我們 2023 年的成長資本支出總額達到約 9,400 萬美元，比 2022 年增加了 4,000 萬美元，因為我們發現了投資未來綠地公墓以及未來殯葬計畫的有意義的機會。

Turning to acquisitions. While we did not make any investments in the fourth quarter, we believe the pipeline again remains robust. We have been actively investing already this year in the first quarter. With $14 million of acquisition investments in January, and we anticipate more investments in the coming months. In total, we ended 2023 with $72 million in acquisition spend and we're very pleased with the quality of these businesses that have joined SCI and more importantly, have welcomed many new associates to our SCI family.

轉向收購。雖然我們在第四季度沒有進行任何投資，但我們相信管道仍然保持強勁。今年第一季我們就一直在積極投資。一月份的收購投資達到 1,400 萬美元，我們預計未來幾個月將會有更多投資。截至 2023 年，我們的收購支出總計為 7,200 萬美元，我們對加入 SCI 的這些企業的品質感到非常滿意，更重要的是，我們歡迎許多新員工加入我們的 SCI 大家庭。

In addition to the investments in CapEx and acquisitions that we just talked about, we returned $247 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter through $42 million of dividends and just over $200 million of share repurchases. This brought the number of shares outstanding to just above 146 million shares. And as Tom just already mentioned, we purchased 3.6 million shares at an average price of about $57 during the quarter.

除了我們剛才談到的資本支出和收購投資之外，我們在本季還透過 4,200 萬美元的股息和略高於 2 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 2.47 億美元的資本。這使得流通股數量略高於 1.46 億股。正如 Tom 剛剛提到的，我們在本季以約 57 美元的平均價格購買了 360 萬股股票。

So before I shift to the 2024 outlook, I want to make a brief comment about our corporate G&A expense during the quarter of about $45 million. This was higher than our expected range of $38 million to $40 million, driven primarily by higher incentive compensation expense which was specifically tied to our long-term compensation plans that, again, are based on total shareholder returns relative to a designated peer group.

因此，在轉向 2024 年展望之前，我想對本季約 4,500 萬美元的公司一般管理費用進行簡要評論。這高於我們 3800 萬至 4000 萬美元的預期範圍，主要是由於激勵薪酬費用較高，該費用與我們的長期薪酬計劃特別相關，而長期薪酬計劃又基於相對於指定同行群體的股東總回報。

So shifting to 2024, and you saw this in the press release. Our 2024 adjusted operating cash flow guidance range is $900 million to $960 million, with a midpoint of $930 million. The midpoint of this range assumes the following: we expect our base case cash flows at the midpoint of our guidance to grow about $35 million, comprised of about $55 million of cash flow growth from our underlying funeral and cemetery operations offset by an anticipated $20 million headwind or increase from interest expense as higher rates and balances continue to impact earnings and cash flows; we anticipate having a more normalized use of working capital of $30 million to $50 million of use, driven by growth in treated cemetery sales, timing of payables, partially offset by reduced incentive compensation payments in 2024; we expect cash taxes to range between $25 million and $35 million, which is a decrease of just over $40 million from 2023, but about $150 million lower than normalized levels.

時間轉到 2024 年，您在新聞稿中看到了這一點。我們調整後的 2024 年營運現金流指引範圍為 9 億至 9.6 億美元，中位數為 9.3 億美元。該範圍的中點假設如下：我們預計我們的指導中點的基本情況現金流量將增長約3500 萬美元，其中包括來自我們的基本葬禮和墓地業務的約5500 萬美元現金流量增長，並抵消預期的2000 萬美元由於較高的利率和餘額繼續影響收益和現金流，因此出現逆風或利息支出增加；我們預計，在經過處理的墓地銷售成長、應付帳款時間安排的推動下，營運資金的使用將更加正常化，達到 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元，但部分被 2024 年激勵補償金的減少所抵銷；我們預計現金稅將在 2,500 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元之間，比 2023 年減少略多於 4,000 萬美元，但比正常水準低約 1.5 億美元。

This, again, is as a result of the tax accounting change I've discussed over the last couple of quarters; we also anticipate an effective tax rate between 24% and 25% in 2024. So shifting to capital investments during the upcoming year. We expect maintenance CapEx to remain flat at about $325 million. To break that down, give you a little bit more color, we expect to invest $125 million in our funeral and cemetery facilities, $165 million into high return in cemetery development projects and $35 million into our digital strategy investments and some other corporate investments.

這也是我在過去幾季討論過的稅務會計變化的結果；我們也預計 2024 年的有效稅率將在 24% 至 25% 之間。因此，明年將轉向資本投資。我們預計維護資本支出將維持在 3.25 億美元左右。為了進一步說明這一點，我們預計將投資1.25 億美元用於我們的殯葬和墓地設施，1.65 億美元用於墓地開發項目的高回報，以及3500 萬美元用於我們的數位戰略投資和其他一些企業投資。

In addition to this maintenance CapEx, we expect to invest $75 million to $125 million towards acquisitions and roughly $45 million to $50 million in new funeral home construction and real estate opportunities, which together, to remind you, drive low to mid-teen after-tax internal rates of return, which again is well in excess of our cost of capital.

除了維護資本支出外，我們預計將投資7,500 萬至1.25 億美元用於收購，並投資約4,500 萬至5,000 萬美元用於新殯儀館建設和房地產機會，提醒您，這些投資將推動青少年後低至中低水準的發展。對內部報酬率課稅，這又遠遠超過了我們的資本成本。

Finally, absent other high retirement opportunities we will continue returning capital to our shareholders through our share buyback program in a consistent and disciplined manner as you've seen us do over the years. So I'll now conclude by making a few comments on our financial position. We have a very favorable debt maturity profile and have liquidity of right now around $900 million at the end of the quarter, consisted of approximately $220 million of cash on hand, plus approximately $670 million available on our long-term bank credit facility.

最後，在沒有其他高退休機會的情況下，我們將繼續透過我們的股票回購計劃，以一致和嚴格的方式向股東返還資本，就像您多年來看到的那樣。最後，我將對我們的財務狀況發表一些評論。我們的債務到期狀況非常有利，截至本季末，我們的流動性約為 9 億美元，其中包括約 2.2 億美元的手頭現金，加上我們的長期銀行信貸額度約 6.7 億美元。

Our leverage at the end of the quarter remained somewhat consistent with the third quarter at 3.58x that' net debt to EBITDA. We continue to have a bias towards the lower end of our usual target range of 3.5x to 4x, and I call that in the near term until we have more clarity as to exactly where interest rates will go from here. So in closing, our strong balance sheet continues to underpin our capital deployment approach, which gives us flexibility to execute on high-return investment opportunities.

本季末我們的槓桿率與第三季保持一致，為 EBITDA 淨債務的 3.58 倍。我們繼續偏向 3.5 倍至 4 倍的通常目標範圍的下限，我稱之為短期內的目標，直到我們更清楚地了解利率將如何走向。因此，最後，我們強勁的資產負債表繼續支撐我們的資本部署方法，這使我們能夠靈活地執行高回報投資機會。

We are very proud of our team, most importantly, and the way we finished 2023. As we enter 2024, our solid balance sheet, great liquidity and strong and predictable cash flows will again provide opportunities to invest capital to the highest and best use and ultimately, to maximize shareholder value.

最重要的是，我們為我們的團隊以及我們完成2023 年的方式感到非常自豪。隨著我們進入2024 年，我們穩健的資產負債表、強大的流動性以及強勁且可預測的現金流將再次提供機會，將資本投資到最高、最佳用途和最終實現股東價值最大化。

So with that, operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and I'll now turn it back to you to open the call up to questions.

接線員，我們準備好的發言就到此結束，我現在將其轉回給您，以開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from A.J. Rice of UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 A.J.瑞銀的賴斯。

Maybe a couple of quick questions here. First of all, I think you guys are mentioning that you see sort of a skew to the earnings quarterly progression and maybe some of that seasonality, maybe some other factors. I just want to make sure we leave the call knowing exactly what you what you're looking at, maybe first half, second half, first quarter? Any comment specifically on how the progression would play out over the year?

也許這裡有幾個簡單的問題。首先，我認為你們提到，你們看到季度獲利進展存在某種偏差，可能還有一些季節性因素，也可能有一些其他因素。我只是想確保我們在通話結束時清楚地知道您在看什麼，也許是上半場、下半場、第一季？這一年的進展有何具體評論？

Sure, A.J. I think the most -- for the most part, when you got to the last 3 quarters of the year, our expectations would be that you'd see historically impressive growth. The challenging quarter is going to probably be the first quarter, and there's two reasons for that. It's one the most challenging as you think about from an interest rate comparison I think it's somewhere around it, again, depends on the level. But somewhere, call it, the $0.06, $0.07 of headwind as you think about interest expense year-over-year that you must overcome.

當然，A.J.我認為，在大多數情況下，當你進入今年最後三個季度時，我們的預期是你會看到歷史上令人印象深刻的成長。充滿挑戰的季度可能是第一季度，這有兩個原因。從利率比較來看，這是最具挑戰性的之一，我認為它在附近，再次取決於水平。但在某個地方，當你考慮必須克服的逐年利息支出時，可以稱之為 0.06 美元、0.07 美元的逆風。

The other thing that we would anticipate, and you'll recall that completed construction projects on cemetery. And when you think of the comparison of this first quarter versus last year's first quarter, that should be a negative effect because we're going to have less completed project revenue. So those are the two things that I think are going to cause a more challenging first quarter comparison. And as you get to the last 3 quarters, I think it looks really good quarter-over-quarter.

我們預計的另一件事是，您會記得已完成的墓地建設項目。當您考慮第一季與去年第一季的比較時，這應該是負面影響，因為我們完成的專案收入將會減少。因此，我認為這兩件事將導致第一季的比較更具挑戰性。當你進入最後三個季度時，我認為季度環比看起來非常好。

And again, for the year, I think, some impressive growth factoring in some of the things we mentioned before, which are slightly higher interest expense. And if this kind of continued pull-forward effect that impacts slightly both the funeral and cemetery segments.

再說一遍，我認為今年的一些令人印象深刻的成長因素包括我們之前提到的一些事情，即利息支出略高。如果這種持續的拉動效應會對葬禮和墓地部分產生輕微影響。

Okay. Wanted to just ask as well, if I'm looking at the trend year-to-year in the atneed funeral versus preneed maturing. It looks like preneed maturings hang in there even better on volumes than atneed. Is that -- do you think some indication that maybe some of this lengthy investment you've been doing in preneed over the last decade is starting to drive market share and you're getting an increasing percentage of people that are coming in that have these preneed arranged contracts in hand?

好的。我也想問一下，我是否正在研究需要葬禮與成熟前的逐年趨勢。看起來預需成熟的成交量比需要時更好。您是否認為有一些跡象表明，也許您在過去十年中對 preneed 進行的長期投資正在開始推動市場份額，並且越來越多的人擁有這些產品手頭需要安排合約嗎？

We do, A.J, exactly. We watch that same metric, and we believe that represents your exact thoughts.

我們確實如此，A.J，確實如此。我們關注相同的指標，我們相信這代表了您的確切想法。

Okay. Maybe one last question then. I know it sounds like the year started out with some deals on the acquisition front. I understand that the 10-year standstill arrangement that you did with the FTC when you closed the Stewart deal years ago is going to expire in the spring. I wonder can you sort of size what that creates is an opportunity? And do you think we'll see a pickup in pacing on deals when you -- when that FTC standstill agreement expires?

好的。也許還有最後一個問題。我知道聽起來今年伊始就發生了一些收購方面的交易。據我所知，你們幾年前完成史都華交易時與聯邦貿易委員會達成的十年停滯安排將於春季到期。我想知道您能否評估一下這所創造的機會的大小？您認為當聯邦貿易委員會的暫停協議到期時，我們會看到交易節奏加快嗎？

We do, A.J. I think it's hard to size it, but it is a significant amount of markets that we've been really precluded from participating in for the last 2 years by those prior notice agreements, which expire in May. So it's very difficult to predict when or what. But we're excited about it. We do think it kind of allows us to be a little more active as it relates to acquisitions and get back involved in some of those markets. So we're excited about it. We think it will create some momentum. But again, I think deals come when deals come. So it's hard to predict the timing and the size, but we're glad it's coming to an end.

我們願意，A.J.我認為很難確定其規模，但在過去的兩年裡，我們確實被那些將於 5 月到期的事先通知協議所阻止，無法參與其中的大量市場。因此很難預測何時或會發生什麼。但我們對此感到興奮。我們確實認為這讓我們在收購方面更加積極，並重新參與其中一些市場。所以我們對此感到興奮。我們認為這會創造一些動力。但我再次強調，當交易到來時，交易就會到來。因此很難預測時間和規模，但我們很高興它即將結束。

Can you just remind us how many markets it involves and -- or how much of a constraint it's been? And then can you have discussions in those markets prior to the exploration or you have to wait for the exploration to have discussions?

您能否提醒我們它涉及多少市場以及——或者它受到了多大的限制？那麼在勘探之前可以在這些市場進行討論嗎？或者必須等待勘探之後再進行討論？

Well, I think you can always have discussions about when you could possibly go to closing a contract. So again, we've always been active in these markets in the sense of developing relationships and not so much around the deal, but getting to know people, getting to know what their plans are. So it isn't like we're going to for the first time, we begin to talk to people. We've been out there just being a good neighbor. So again, as far as numbers of markets, I don't have them in front of me, but think of them as being mainly in some major markets and my guess is probably somewhere that we'd be interested in 15 to 25 type of markets that are out there that we've not had the ability really to think too heavily as it relates to growing through acquisitions.

嗯，我認為你們總是可以討論何時可以簽約。再說一遍，我們在這些市場上一直很活躍，主要是為了發展關係，而不是圍繞交易，而是了解人們，了解他們的計劃是什麼。所以這不是我們第一次，我們開始與人們交談。我們一直在那裡只是做一個好鄰居。再說一遍，就市場數量而言，我沒有看到它們，但我認為它們主要集中在一些主要市場，我的猜測可能是我們對 15 到 25 種類型的市場感興趣。我們還沒有能力真正思考太多市場，因為這與透過收購實現成長有關。

And the next question comes from Tobey Sommer of Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Tobey Sommer。

I wanted to ask you about the rate of atneed activity and how you think about it having sort of mostly but not entirely normalized post COVID and maybe characterize what, if any, kind of headwind you think remains in the business?

我想問您關於需要活動的比率，以及您如何看待它在新冠疫情後大部分但尚未完全正常化，並可能描述一下您認為業務中仍然存在的逆風是什麼（如果有的話）？

Tobey, this is Eric. There continues to be a headwind as it relates to COVID, it's getting better every year, and you could see that the fact that the total funeral volumes were down mid-single digits. And now we're really calling it relatively flat. I mean I think the facial guidance is flat to down 1% or 2%, but let's just call it flat for purposes of this explanation. What you're seeing in the positive is the natural growth that's occurring in North America. You can call that 1% or so per year in terms of just the growth of the population in that population agent and that population needing services of this particular industry.

托比，這是埃里克。與新冠病毒相關的逆風仍然存在，情況每年都在好轉，你可以看到葬禮總量下降了中個位數。現在我們真的稱之為相對平坦。我的意思是，我認為臉部引導是平坦的，下降 1% 或 2%，但出於解釋的目的，我們將其稱為平坦。你看到的積極的一面是北美正在發生的自然增長。就該人口代理中的人口增長以及需要該特定行業服務的人口而言，您可以將其稱為每年 1% 左右。

Specific to our company, you have to also take into account acquisitions. In acquisitions, it depends on the particular year, whether our acquisitions are heavy funeral or have heavy cemetery. But ultimately, you could add, call it, 2,000 to 4,000 funeral services in a particular year related to a full amount of acquisitions. So you have that natural effect. You have the acquisition effect which is specific to our company and what is being (inaudible) in this situation, specifically in 2024 is the pull-forward effect related to COVID.

具體到我們公司，你還必須考慮收購。在收購中，這取決於特定的年份，我們收購的是重葬禮還是有重墓地。但最終，您可以在特定年份添加 2,000 到 4,000 項葬禮服務，稱為與全額收購相關的葬禮服務。所以你就有了那種自然的效果。您具有我們公司特有的收購效應，在這種情況下（特別是 2024 年）正在發生的（聽不清楚）是與新冠病毒相關的前拉效應。

And remember, you had some noise in the last couple of years with excess deaths as well coming out of COVID. And that's impossible at this point to differentiate really. There's not the data out there to make any further comment on that. But the COVID pull-forward effect, excess debt pull-forward effect is kind of washing the natural progression of the baby boomers, coupled with our acquisitions and calling us kind of flattish. I think that's better those particular factors than they were last year. That drove us down mid-single digits. And we hope, and we'll give you better a comment as the year progresses that you'll start seeing a little bit of an uptick in net volumes, as I described it to you this morning as we move forward in future years.

請記住，在過去的幾年裡，由於新冠肺炎造成的死亡人數過多，引起了一些噪音。目前還不可能真正區分。目前還沒有數據可以對此做出任何進一步評論。但新冠疫情的拉動效應、超額債務拉動效應正在洗刷嬰兒潮世代的自然發展，再加上我們的收購，讓我們顯得平淡無奇。我認為這些特定因素比去年更好。這使我們的業績下降了個位數。我們希望，隨著今年的進展，我們會給您更好的評論，您將開始看到淨交易量略有上升，正如我今天早上向您描述的那樣，隨著我們在未來幾年的前進。

If you are able to be a little bit more active on the acquisition front after the standstill agreement. And you mentioned some markets that you would find attractive, but haven't really been focusing on recently. What would that entrance into those markets and sort of fleshing those out, what would that do to the contours of profitability at the firm? Is that something that would be observable or so small as to not really have an influence?

如果在中止協議之後您能夠在收購方面更加積極一些。您提到了一些您認為有吸引力但最近並未真正關注的市場。進入這些市場並充實這些市場會帶來什麼影響，這會對公司的獲利能力產生什麼影響？這是可以觀察到的東西，還是小到不會產生真正影響力的東西？

Well, I think it's built into the growth framework. When you think of the 8% to 12% earnings per share growth you're looking at some acquisitions and share repurchases could be up to maybe half of that growth. The rest being inorganic currently being driven by better average for sales at the funeral homes and most importantly, the significant preneed cemetery growth that we've seen lately and over the years that we've talked about at length.

嗯，我認為它已內建在成長框架中。當你想到 8% 到 12% 的每股盈餘成長時，你會想到一些收購和股票回購可能會達到成長的一半。其餘的都是無機的，目前是由殯儀館銷售平均水平提高推動的，最重要的是，我們最近和多年來我們詳細討論過的墓地顯著增長。

I've already kind of given you a statistic that said that any time we're growing depends on the year, you could add 2,000 to 4,000 cases of funeral volumes per year for the full load of acquisitions and such. So is it material? Of course, it's material, but we don't think that the new markets after the SCI with Stewart situation expires is going to be an absolute game changer. I mean this is a situation where we have very long-term relationships. Our field operations, our management here has done a very good job having long-term relationships with independents that certainly we would love to talk to.

我已經為你提供了一份統計數據，表明我們的成長取決於年份，每年可以增加 2,000 到 4,000 箱葬禮數量，以應對滿載的收購等。那麼它是物質的嗎？當然，這很重要，但我們認為 SCI 與史都華情況到期後的新市場不會絕對改變遊戲規則。我的意思是，在這種情況下，我們有著非常長期的關係。我們的現場營運、我們的管理層做得非常好，與獨立人士建立了長期關係，我們當然很樂意與他們交談。

And what Tom said, just to reiterate, we talk to them now. It just is going to be their decision when they want a liquidity event for their generational planning and for their particular family. And trust me, they don't have any idea, in my opinion, that whether an FTC mandate is coming due or not coming due for SCI.

湯姆所說的，只是重申一下，我們現在與他們交談。當他們想要為他們的世代規劃和他們的特定家庭進行流動性活動時，這將是他們的決定。相信我，在我看來，他們不知道 FTC 對 SCI 的授權是否到期。

Tobey, maybe the better way to think about it is what's happened in the past is it was a competitive situation where we would be asked to look at a business we are at a competitive disadvantage because the seller would know that we have to get prior permission. So maybe that's the better way to think about it is we were kind of behind the (inaudible) because we introduced risk into a transaction that our competitors didn't have to deal with. And that should become more competitive as we move through this May date.

托比，也許更好的思考方式是過去發生的事情，這是一種競爭情況，我們會被要求查看我們處於競爭劣勢的業務，因為賣方知道我們必須獲得事先許可。因此，也許更好的思考方式是，我們有點落後（聽不清楚），因為我們將風險引入了競爭對手不必處理的交易中。隨著五月的到來，競爭應該會變得更加激烈。

Very helpful. And then last thing for me. Is there any change in the increasing pace of adoption of cremation, anything to think about? Or is that sort of steady state, just to touch base on that.

很有幫助。然後是我的最後一件事。火葬的採用速度加快是否有任何變化，有什麼值得考慮的嗎？或者說是一種穩定狀態，只是以此為基礎。

Yes. I think it's steady state. We saw a contraction of the rate, but Again, I think if you look over long periods of time, you're going to have quarterly fluctuations, but we still stick by the 100 to 150 basis point expectation.

是的。我認為這是穩定狀態。我們看到了利率的收縮，但我再次認為，如果你長期觀察，你會發現季度波動，但我們仍然堅持 100 到 150 個基點的預期。

The next question comes from John Ransom of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的約翰·蘭塞姆。

Just turning to your guidance. Could you talk about just your expectations for preneed cemetery production and recognition rate compared to 2023?

只是轉向你的指導。您能否談談與 2023 年相比，您對預需墓地產量和認可率的預期？

Yes. So I think on the projection side, John, if you think back, we historically have said we think we could grow cemetery -- preneed cemetery sales production in the, call it, 3% to 6% range. That's kind of steady-state same-store. Obviously, there's times that we went above that range. There's times we've been below that range. I think the way to think about next year is instead of a 3% to 6%, we're just dial it down a tiny bit, call it 2% to 5%.

是的。所以我認為在預測方面，約翰，如果你回想一下，我們歷史上曾說過我們認為我們可以擴大墓地——需要墓地銷售產量在 3% 到 6% 的範圍內。這就是一種穩態的同店。顯然，有時我們會超出這個範圍。有時我們的水平低於該範圍。我認為考慮明年的方式不是 3% 到 6%，我們只是稍微調低一點，稱之為 2% 到 5%。

And the reason for that is we did a lot of leads through funeral volume traffic and traffic through the cemeteries. So as you think about the pull-forward effect, we're going to have slightly less leads to follow up on. And that's what we're factoring into our numbers. Now again, can we surprise to the upside, I think so. But we need to get through the year to understand better where we are if that makes sense.

原因是我們透過葬禮流量和墓地流量進行了大量線索。因此，當您考慮前拉效應時，我們需要跟進的線索將會稍微減少。這就是我們在數據中考慮的因素。現在，我們能否再次感到驚喜，我想是的。但如果這有意義的話，我們需要度過這一年才能更了解我們所處的位置。

And John, from a recognition rate perspective, as you know, we talked about that on the last call as well, and we thought it would be in the upper 90s for the fourth quarter, and it was. Generally, we look at a full year right now kind of in the mid-90s from a recognition rate. So the 95% ZIP code from that. Remember that can move over the quarter though, it usually starts off somewhat light in the low 90s and works its way as we complete projects during the summer months and towards the end of the fall, where it could be as high as what you saw in the fourth quarter, 98% or even 100.

約翰，從識別率的角度來看，正如你所知，我們在上次電話會議上也談到了這一點，我們認為第四季度的識別率將達到 90 多歲，事實確實如此。一般來說，我們從辨識率來看，現在全年的情況大約在 90 年代中期。所以 95% 的郵遞區號就是來自於此。請記住，儘管這一數字可能會在整個季度內發生變化，但它通常會在90 年代初開始有些輕微，並隨著我們在夏季和秋季末完成項目而發揮作用，在那裡它可能會與您在90 年代看到的一樣高第四季度，98%甚至100。

But generally, we think it's -- we're to the point now where I think it's somewhat stabilized and when you're modeling, I think it's about 95%-ish of the production should come through the income statement in a full year period for cemetery.

但總的來說，我們認為現在已經到了一定程度，我認為它已經穩定下來，當你建模時，我認為大約 95% 左右的產量應該通過全年的損益表來體現對於墓地。

Great. And just another, this may be a little too wonky, but you talked about the 10% CAGR in funeral volumes since 2019. What do you think -- what's the M&A effect of that? So if you hadn't had any M&A, what do you think the funeral CAGR would have been from 2019 to 2023? Is that about 1 point a year? Is that the easy way to think about it?

偉大的。另外，這可能有點太奇怪了，但您談到了自 2019 年以來葬禮數量的複合年增長率為 10%。您認為這對併購有何影響？那麼，如果沒有進行任何併購，您認為 2019 年至 2023 年葬禮複合年增長率會是多少？一年大概1分嗎？這是一個簡單的思考方式嗎？

Yes. I think it's fair to say that maybe 3% to 4% of that is acquisition and the rest of it's organic.

是的。我認為可以公平地說，其中 3% 到 4% 是收購，其餘部分是有機的。

Right. So therefore, 6% growth. So a little over 1% a year CAGR. So that's not crazy. So I guess that underscores we probably are at the tag end of the COVID pull forward. And so you think that '25, you'll get some small growth kind of go from maybe minus low single digit in '24 to up low single digit and '25 for funeral. Is that a fair way to think about it?

正確的。因此，增長 6%。所以年複合成長率略高於 1%。所以這並不瘋狂。所以我想這強調了我們可能正處於新冠疫情的最後階段。所以你認為，到了 25 年，你會得到一些小幅增長，從 24 年的負低個位數增長到 25 年葬禮的低個位數。這是一個公平的思考方式嗎？

That's kind of our expectation right now, John, yes.

約翰，是的，這就是我們現在的期望。

Okay. And then just two last ones. Any early read on Ching Ming, the weather? I think you talk about the weather again, but yes.

好的。然後只有最後兩個。有沒有關於清明、天氣的早期讀物？我想你又談到了天氣，但是的。

I think one of the things to understand about the weather from last year last year, the real problem was we had -- we basically had inventory that was destroyed. And by destroying potential inventory, it delayed any possibility of sale for a matter of months until you get that inventory repurposed. And that is the range where again this year, to our knowledge, we have not had any kind of event like that. So while you may have had a few days out of the market, I think it's our belief that the customers are there and we'll get in front of them, and we've got great inventory to show our customer base. So yes, we don't anticipate as pronounced an effect as we had last year because of the weather.

我認為要了解去年天氣的一件事是，真正的問題是我們的庫存基本上被銷毀了。透過銷毀潛在的庫存，它推遲了幾個月的銷售可能性，直到您重新利用該庫存。據我們所知，今年我們還沒有發生任何類似的事件。因此，雖然你可能已經離開市場幾天了，但我認為我們相信客戶就在那裡，我們會走在他們前面，而且我們有大量的庫存來向我們的客戶群展示。所以，是的，我們預計由於天氣原因，影響不會像去年那麼明顯。

You guys would put tarps in the CapEx budget this year for Blue Tarps.

你們會將防水布納入今年藍色防水布的資本支出預算中。

We did...

我們做了...

Okay. All right. And then lastly we correlated your preneed cemetery to basket of the consumer stocks, and it was pretty close in the third quarter, but you definitely outperformed kind of the basket of comps that we thought correlated. So we got to go back to work on that. But why do you think even in the face of not great consumer comps and not great funeral volume, what do you think led to the outperformance in cemetery preneed in the fourth quarter?

好的。好的。最後，我們將你的墓地與一籃子消費股票相關聯，第三季的情況非常接近，但你的表現肯定優於我們認為相關的一籃子股票。所以我們必須回去繼續努力。但是，為什麼您認為即使面對不太好的消費者競爭和不大的葬禮數量，您認為是什麼導致了第四季度墓地的優異表現？

Sometimes, John, it's a matter of timing. But I think, again, I give the credit to our sales force to give the credit to our inventory teams. We've got fabulous inventory to sell and the best sales force in the world. So I give the credit where credit is due.

有時候，約翰，這是一個時間問題。但我再次認為，我將功勞歸功於我們的銷售人員，也將功勞歸功於我們的庫存團隊。我們擁有大量可供銷售的庫存和世界上最好的銷售團隊。因此，我在應有的功勞處給予功勞。

What's the size of your sales force now?

您現在的銷售團隊有多少規模？

We're about now 3,700, 3,800 salespeople down from I think pre-COVID 4,300. So we're able to...

我們現在大約有 3,700 到 3,800 名銷售人員，比新冠疫情之前的 4,300 名減少了。所以我們能夠...

drop off the bottom. Are you up off the bottom of you had people from the bottom, the post COVID bottom?

從底部掉下來。你是否已經擺脫了那些來自底層、新冠疫情後底層的人的困境？

Actually, we're about the same. I mean maybe up slightly, but I'd say we kind of adapted during COVID to 15% less head count. And you see the results, we've got compounded growth rates at around 10%. So very efficient throughput, great use of technology, great leadership.

其實我們也差不多我的意思是可能會略有增加，但我想說的是，我們在新冠疫情期間進行了調整，將人數減少了 15%。你可以看到結果，我們的複合成長率約為 10%。所以非常有效率的吞吐量，大量的技術運用，優秀的領導。

The next question comes from Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的史考特·施尼伯格。

Guys, on preneed cemetery, it sounds like you're getting a lot of nice pricing. You've developed a lot of nice products. And it seems like that's going to be the growth driver. I'm curious about contract velocity. Is that going to remain negative in 2024 and to what magnitude? And I'll follow up with something on that. But just if you could address that, please.

夥計們，在預先需要的墓地，聽起來你們得到了很多不錯的價格。你們開發了很多不錯的產品。這似乎將成為成長動力。我對合約速度很好奇。到 2024 年，這個數字還會繼續成為負值嗎？其幅度有多大？我會跟進此事。但如果你能解決這個問題，請。

Sure, Scott. I think if you take a year, as an example, our velocity, again, is slightly flat for the fourth quarter this year. But if you go back to 2019 levels on a year-over-year basis, we're actually up in velocity 11%. So I think sometimes we get so caught up and this velocity has got I believe we flattened out.

當然，斯科特。我認為，如果以一年為例，今年第四季我們的速度再次略有持平。但如果你回到 2019 年的同比水平，我們的速度實際上增加了 11%。所以我認為有時我們會陷入困境，我相信我們的速度已經趨於平緩。

I think velocity should now correlate a little better to flat to slightly grow as we think about future. And so if you got 1% to 2% in velocity and you got 4% to 5% in pricing, that's probably the way to think about what we can do in cemetery sales as we march forward over the next few years. So yes, I would anticipate that, that stabilizes from here and continues to grow off this 11% growth from 2019 levels that we are operating in today.

我認為，當我們考慮未來時，速度現在應該更好地與持平和略有增長相關。因此，如果速度提高了 1% 到 2%，則定價提高了 4% 到 5%，那麼在未來幾年中，我們可能會考慮在墓地銷售方面可以做些什麼。所以，是的，我預計，這一數字將從現在開始穩定下來，並在我們今天運營的 2019 年水平 11% 的基礎上繼續增長。

And on -- still on preneed cemetery, kind of a 2-parter. Just how would you qualify consumer behavior kind of low end, mid, high end of the range? And then the follow-up question on that is cemetery margin in 2024. Just your thoughts there.

繼續——仍然在預先準備的墓地，有點像兩方。您如何判斷消費者行為的低端、中端、高端範圍？接下來的問題是 2024 年的墓地利潤。請談談您的想法。

Yes. So I think on consumer behavior, if you take the high end, we continue to see the high end going strong. And some of that average price and remember, these are over $80,000 sales. But to give you some perspective, we probably had about 400 of those that averaged around, call it, $200,000 sale, back in 2019 -- around that era. We've almost doubled the number of contracts. So going from 400 contracts at that level to 800, slightly up on the average 2%. And so that seems some pretty significant growth and continues to look strong. And again, we've always said that probably correlates best with housing and stock market.

是的。因此，我認為就消費者行為而言，如果你選擇高端產品，我們將繼續看到高端產品的強勁發展。請記住，其中一些平均價格超過 80,000 美元。但為了給你一些視角，我們可能有大約 400 個平均銷售額在 20 萬美元左右的產品，早在 2019 年，也就是那個時代。我們的合約數量幾乎增加了一倍。因此，從該水準的 400 份合約增加到 800 份，平均增幅為 2%。因此，這似乎是一些相當顯著的成長，看起來仍然很強勁。再說一次，我們總是說這可能與房地產和股市最相關。

And I'd say that there's anywhere we're not seeing as robust in activities we like, it is at that lower end. And again, I think that correlates with a lot of other discretionary retailers out there that are seeing a little bit of a stall when you think about that consumer that may or may not be dipping into their savings a little higher, may or may not have the same access to credit, particularly not at attractive rates.

我想說的是，我們在某些​​地方沒有看到我們喜歡的活動那麼強勁，那就是處於低端。再說一遍，我認為這與許多其他可自由支配的零售商相關，當你考慮到消費者可能會或可能不會將他們的儲蓄投入更高一點，可能會或可能不會有一點停滯時，他們會看到一點停滯。獲得信貸的機會相同，尤其是利率不具吸引力的情況。

So that's where we are. And I think as far as margins, I think you asked about, Scott, our margins continue to grow. I think we've been operating in this kind of mid-30% range. And I think we'll continue to expect those to push up slightly year-over-year when you think about 2024. I think it's 33% to 35% range weren't there.

這就是我們現在的情況。我認為就利潤率而言，斯科特，我想你問過我們的利潤率繼續增長。我認為我們一直在 30% 的中間範圍內運作。我認為，當你考慮 2024 年時，我們將繼續預計這些數字將同比略有上升。我認為 33% 至 35% 的範圍並不存在。

One last one for me. Just on digital investment, the CapEx, a little bit lower this year than last. Just if you could -- maybe Eric speak to what these investments have been and the benefits you may have garnered? And are we -- is that going to start to wane? Has the brunt of that occurred? And just curious how -- what you're realizing regarding the benefit on the tail end?

最後一張給我。僅就數位投資而言，今年的資本支出比去年略低。如果你可以——也許艾瑞克能談談這些投資是什麼以及你可能獲得的好處？我們的這種情況會開始減弱嗎？首當其衝的事情發生了嗎？只是好奇你如何意識到尾部的好處是什麼？

Scott, we've said all along that we're huge believers in digital investments, especially customer-facing technology. We've also been making some investments that are not customer-facing technology that are going to help us become better, more effective and more efficient at our funeral homes and cemeteries. So what you really saw us is really push that through the last couple of years. And that's what pushed that digital CapEx up into the $50 million, $60 million range.

史考特，我們一直說過，我們非常相信數位投資，尤其是面向客戶的技術。我們也進行了一些非面向客戶的技術投資，這些投資將幫助我們的殯儀館和墓地變得更好、更有效和更有效率。所以你真正看到的是我們在過去幾年確實推動了這一進程。這就是數位資本支出升至 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元範圍的原因。

I think this $35 million range, it could ebb and flow, but I think it's a better number as we move forward. You're always offsetting that with what do the funeral homes and cemeteries need from a maintenance capital perspective because that's going to come first? And what do the cemeteries need from a cemetery development CapEx perspective because our great sales force that Tom just mentioned, needs inventory to sell. So that will always come first.

我認為這個 3500 萬美元的範圍可能會起伏不定，但我認為隨著我們的前進，這是一個更好的數字。從維護資本的角度來看，您總是用殯儀館和墓地需要什麼來抵消這一點，因為這會是第一位的？從墓園開發資本支出的角度來看，墓園需要什麼，因為湯姆剛才提到的我們強大的銷售團隊需要庫存來銷售。所以這永遠是第一位的。

But I do think that this is both a combination of some noncustomer make us more efficient CapEx in terms of systems and processes that probably will wane a little bit as we move forward, and that will be replaced with better customer-facing technology and digital investments that way. But I think it's going to end up being around this $30 million to $40 million as we move forward.

但我確實認為，這既是一些非客戶的結合，使我們在系統和流程方面更加高效的資本支出，隨著我們的前進，這些資本支出可能會稍微減弱，並且將被更好的面向客戶的技術和數字投資所取代那樣。但我認為隨著我們的推進，最終的金額將達到 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元左右。

The next question comes from Joanna Gajuk of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬安娜·加尤克。

So just first a follow-up on some numbers. So G&A this quarter higher. How should we think about the '24 G&A progression? Is this $45 million kind of elevated number, so it's going to come down.

因此，首先對一些數字進行跟進。因此本季的總費用和行政費用更高。我們應該如何看待 '24 G&A 進展？ 4500 萬美元是不是有點高了，所以它會下降。

Yes. I think $45 million is a little elevated. It's what I was trying to imply in the conference call remarks, Joanna. We had some movement, obviously, in the share price during the last few months of the year. And that adjusts more of the long-term compensation plans which are based on total shareholder return or TCR versus a peer group.

是的。我認為 4500 萬美元有點高。這就是我在電話會議發言中試圖暗示的內容，喬安娜。顯然，今年最後幾個月我們的股價出現了一些波動。這調整了更多基於股東總回報或 TCR 與同業相比的長期薪酬計劃。

And so we had to catch up some accruals, so to speak, are related to those in the fourth quarter, and that made the G&A, which normally should be $38 million to $40 million-ish a quarter into that mid-40s for the particular fourth quarter. But absent any other new information, I think from a framework perspective, we still like the, call it, $37 million to $38 million to $40 million a quarter for the corporate G&A expense.

因此，我們必須追上一些應計費用，可以這麼說，與第四季度的應計費用有關，這使得一般管理費用(G&A) 正常情況下在40 年代中期每季度應為3800 萬美元至4000 萬美元左右。第四季。但如果沒有任何其他新訊息，我認為從框架的角度來看，我們仍然喜歡每季 3700 萬美元至 3800 萬美元至 4000 萬美元的公司 G&A 費用。

And another follow-up, I guess, on the preneed cemetery sales production rate of this quarter, Q4, much better than expectations and you're talking about growing, I guess, for '24, for the full year, low single digits. So I just want to make sure that I understand here. So was there any sort of transactions that were pulled forward sort of step from Q1 into Q4? Or is that kind of still the look for the year maybe seems conservative based on that growth that you experienced in Q4?

我猜想，另一個後續行動是關於本季度（第四季度）的預需要墓地銷售生產率，遠好於預期，我猜你正在談論 24 年全年的增長，低個位數。所以我只是想確保我理解這裡。那麼是否有任何類型的交易從第一季提前到第四季？或者，根據您在第四季度經歷的成長，今年的前景是否仍然顯得保守？

Yes. I think it's so hard to predict, Joanna. I think all we're noticing is that a lot of our lead sources come from activity. So when you have less activity on the funeral home side and the burials and the cemeteries, it can put some pressure on the number of leads that you have to generate and give to our sales force. So we're just acknowledging the fact that if we believe there's a little bit still of a pull-forward effect that it may have a somewhat dampening effect on that lead source.

是的。我認為這很難預測，喬安娜。我認為我們注意到的是，我們的許多潛在客戶來源都來自活動。因此，當殯儀館、墓地和墓地的活動較少時，可能會對您必須產生並提供給我們銷售人員的潛在客戶數量造成一定壓力。因此，我們只是承認這樣一個事實：如果我們相信仍然存在一點拉動效應，那麼它可能會對主要來源產生一定程度的抑製作用。

Having said that, the rates that we're closing at are going up. We're getting leads a big growth in digital leads that are very different, not coming off that traffic in the funeral homes and cemeteries. So again, I want to be optimistic. It's very possible that we could have a very strong preneed cemetery sales. I think we're just acknowledging the fact that traditional leads have come from this activity and we expect that activity to be slightly down. We feel great about the sales force. We feel great about our digital lead growth, and we've got inventory in the cemeteries to sell. So we're optimistic about '24 and even more so as we get into '25 and '26.

話雖如此，我們的收盤利率正在上升。我們的數位線索大幅成長，這些線索非常不同，但殯儀館和墓地的流量並沒有減少。再說一次，我想保持樂觀。我們很有可能擁有非常強勁的預需墓地銷售。我認為我們只是承認傳統銷售線索來自此活動，我們預計活動會略有下降。我們對銷售團隊感覺很好。我們對數位銷售線索的成長感到非常高興，並且我們在墓地中有庫存可供出售。因此，我們對 24 年持樂觀態度，進入 25 年和 26 年時更加樂觀。

And I guess on a different topic, we're still waiting, I guess, to hear from the FTC on those potential changes to the funeral rule. And I guess on that front, can you kind of give us a sense of over the last years how, I guess, your locations have been faring when it comes to compliance with those requirements of the funeral rule on average, how many locations are (inaudible) compliant? And has there been a trend where you're seeing fewer or more of a time of these locations are on compliant?

我想在另一個主題上，我們仍在等待聯邦貿易委員會關於葬禮規則的潛在變化的消息。我想在這方面，你能否讓我們了解一下，在過去的幾年裡，我想，在遵守葬禮規則的這些要求方面，你們的地點平均表現如何，有多少個地點（聽不清）符合嗎？您是否發現這些地點合規的時間越來越少或越來越多？

And I guess there's been some discussion around some other elements of the funeral rule when it comes to the fines and the training that's required. So do you expect any changes to those other elements of the funeral rule that could potentially also happen because -- I guess the base the base case assumption is that going to be about the only price requirement, but would you expect other changes to that funeral rule.

我想，當涉及罰款和所需的培訓時，人們已經就葬禮規則的其他一些要素進行了一些討論。那麼，您是否期望葬禮規則的其他要素也可能發生任何變化，因為——我猜基本情況假設的基礎是唯一的價格要求，但是您是否期望葬禮發生其他變化規則。

Joanna, I think you're right. It's like I think the base assumption is that it's going to create situations with online GPLs in those situations. Nothing has changed from our perspective on that. We continue to work through that. We continue to test that. I think we have about 1,000 or 1,100 and something in that ballpark at any point in time. Of our 1,500 funeral homes and GPLs online.

喬安娜，我認為你是對的。我認為基本假設是，它將在這些情況下使用線上 GPL 創造情況。從我們的角度來看，一切都沒有改變。我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。我們繼續對此進行測試。我認為我們在任何時候都有大約 1,000 或 1,100 名左右的人。我們有 1,500 家殯儀館和線上 GPL。

We mix and match that and test it. We're tiered a lot of ways that I've described before on previous calls. In terms of pricing tiers in particular markets, and we're playing with that as well from starting at prices to a full premium pricing experience that's now hopefully starting to pull in cemetery as well on the digital sites. So no change there.

我們將其混合搭配並進行測試。我們採用了很多分層方式，我之前在之前的電話會議中已經描述過。就特定市場的定價層級而言，我們也在努力解決這個問題，從最初的價格到全面的優質定價體驗，現在有望開始吸引墓地以及數位網站。所以那裡沒有變化。

If that's the expectation that's out there and that occurs, again, I think we're going to be there anyway. And we don't think that's going to have any negative effect to our business. If anything, it's flat to maybe even slightly positive from a preneed perspective as we move forward. From a compliance perspective, we take that extremely seriously. We have really good beefed up training already in place on compliance with the funeral rule and all the intricacies of it. and such and when you give a price list to a consumer.

如果這是人們的期望並且再次發生，我認為無論如何我們都會到達那裡。我們認為這不會對我們的業務產生任何負面影響。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是，從我們前進的角度來看，它是持平的，甚至可能是稍微積極的。從合規的角度來看，我們非常重視這一點。我們已經就遵守葬禮規則及其所有複雜性進行了非常好的密集訓練。當您向消費者提供價目表時。

Let's start, though, about what we do as an industry and what we do as a company. We serve families at a real dire time in their particular lives. And so there's obviously a human element when you're first in touch with the family for the first time that you have to take into account the caring and compassionate nature of our industry and our particular associates being second to none in that situation. So then you're starting to figure out subjectively when to introduce the GPL. And therefore, if it's subjected to start with the compliance is going to be a little bit subjective as well, and that's where a little bit of the gray area comes into play. We're very proud of our training.

不過，讓我們先來談談我們作為一個產業和一家公司所做的事情。我們在家庭特定生活中真正可怕的時刻為他們提供服務。因此，當你第一次與家人接觸時，顯然存在人為因素，你必須考慮到我們行業的關懷和同情心，以及我們特定的員工在這種情況下是首屈一指的。那麼你就開始主觀地弄清楚何時引入 GPL。因此，如果從合規性開始，它也會有點主觀，這就是一些灰色區域發揮作用的地方。我們對我們的培訓感到非常自豪。

We're very proud of our compliance related to the FTC, and we're very supportive of the funeral rule and want the entire industry following that particular part of the rule, and we'll continue to do that. If something else comes down from the FTC, we'll look at it at that particular time. But nothing new has been mentioned to us or more appropriately, we haven't been asked to comment on anything new recently as it relates to the compliance side of the funeral.

我們對遵守聯邦貿易委員會相關規定感到非常自豪，我們非常支持葬禮規則，並希望整個行業都遵循該規則的特定部分，我們將繼續這樣做。如果聯邦貿易委員會有其他規定，我們將在特定時間予以關注。但我們沒有提到任何新內容，或者更恰當地說，我們沒有被要求對最近的任何新內容發表評論，因為它與葬禮的合規方面有關。

Yes, that's I guess a fair point. This question that we pose the industry (inaudible) we talk about changes to the fines or over things like that. But I guess, is there any way to quantify like on average, how many locations of yours get fined or found on compliant on average, and it has kind of changed over the years, bigger point about how, I guess, you're very proud of it of the training that you provide to your associates.

是的，我認為這是一個公平的觀點。我們向業界提出的這個問題（聽不清楚）我們討論的是罰款的變化或類似的事情。但我想，有沒有什麼方法可以像平均一樣量化你的平均有多少個地點被罰款或被發現合規，而且多年來它已經發生了一些變化，更重要的是，我想，你是如何非常為您為同事提供的培訓感到自豪。

Yes. I mean, if you're talking about from the FTC perspective, it's very small. I think we're well, well into compliance. I think when you look at the period of the rule itself, we may have 1 to 2, 2 to 3 locations out of 1,500 in any particular year that may not be in some form of compliance. Again, I'm going to emphasize that, that subjective to some degree, because what our associates are trying to do first and for-most is care and be compassionate for that family. So it can get complicated when you're doing that.

是的。我的意思是，如果你從聯邦貿易委員會的角度來看，它的規模非常小。我認為我們已經很好地遵守了規定。我認為，當您查看該規則本身的時期時，您會發現在任何特定年份，1,500 個地點中可能有 1 到 2、2 到 3 個地點可能不符合某種形式的合規性。我要再次強調，這在某種程度上是主觀的，因為我們的同事首先要做的就是關心和同情那個家庭。因此，當您這樣做時，事情可能會變得複雜。

And then, of course, at some point, you're introducing or the consumer is introducing price into the equation. And at that particular time is when the funeral rule and the GPL and such kicks in from that perspective. But if you take 1 to 3 locations out of 1,500 at any particular time, and it's a pretty long sample set. I'm talking about 30, 35 years. I think you should say that we are very, very much compliance with the funeral rule and will continue to be in our training, our culture and our tone at the top, operationally, will continue to have those results as we move forward.

然後，當然，在某個時候，您或消費者正在將價格引入等式中。在那個特定的時間，葬禮規則和 GPL 等從這個角度開始發揮作用。但如果您在任何特定時間從 1,500 個位置中選取 1 到 3 個位置，那麼這就是一個相當長的樣本集。我說的是30、35年。我想你應該說，我們非常非常遵守葬禮規則，並將繼續在我們的培訓、我們的文化和我們高層的基調中，在操作上，隨著我們的前進，將繼續取得這些成果。

Yes, I appreciate it. That's very helpful. I want so it's a large platform. So even if it's 3 locations at the high note, you mentioned it. That's not even that meaningful. And just last one on this one. Any indication of the timing when we will hear from FTC or there's nothing really out there?

是的，我很感激。這非常有幫助。我希望這是一個大平台。所以即使它是高音的 3 個位置，你也提到了。那甚至沒有那麼有意義。這只是最後一篇。有任何跡象表明我們什麼時候會收到聯邦貿易委員會的消息，或者什麼都沒有嗎？

I don't have any update on their particular timing. That would be in their court.

我沒有關於他們具體時間的任何更新。那將是在他們的法庭上。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to SCI management for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 SCI 管理層進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you, everyone, for being on the call today. We look forward to talking to you again with our first quarter results. Have a great week.

謝謝大家今天接電話。我們期待再次與您討論我們第一季的業績。祝你有個愉快的一周。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。