Service Corporation International (SCI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Service Corporation International fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to SCI management. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Service Corporation International 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。現在我想將會議交給 SCI 管理層。請繼續。

Good morning. This is Allie O'Connor, AVP of Investor Relations and Financial Reporting. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We will have prepared remarks about the quarter from Tom and Eric in just a moment. But before that, let me quickly go over the safe harbor language.

早安.我是投資者關係和財務報告副總裁 Allie O'Connor。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。我們馬上就會準備好湯姆和艾瑞克關於本季的演講。但在此之前，請容許我快速介紹一下安全港條款。

Any comments made by our management team that state our plans, beliefs, expectations or projections for the future are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the SEC that are available on our website.

我們的管理團隊所作的任何關於未來計畫、信念、期望或預測的評論均為前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預期的結果有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於我們在收益報告和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素（可在我們的網站上查閱）。

Today, we might also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the tables at the end of our earnings release and also on our website. With that out of the way, I will now turn it over to Tom Ryan, Chairman and CEO.

今天，我們也可能討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施的對帳表可在我們的收益報告末尾的表格中找到，也可在我們的網站上找到。說完這些，我現在將發言權交給董事長兼執行長湯姆‧瑞安 (Tom Ryan)。

Thanks, Allie. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. This morning, I'm going to begin my remarks with some high-level color on our business performance for the quarter, then provide some greater detail around our funeral and cemetery results, and I will then close with some thoughts about our 2025 business and financial outlook.

謝謝，艾莉。大家好，感謝您今天的電話會議。今天上午，我將首先簡要介紹我們本季度的業務表現，然後詳細介紹我們的葬禮和墓地業績，最後我將談談我們 2025 年業務和財務前景的一些想法。

For the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $1.06, which compared to $0.93 in the prior year. Revenues, gross profit and comparable margin percentages increased in both the funeral and cemetery segments, contributing $0.09 to adjusted earnings per share growth, while lower general and administrative expense contributed an additional $0.05 per share, resulting in a combined $0.14 earnings per share growth from operating income. Below the line, the favorable impact of a lower share count and a slightly lower interest expense was offset by a higher effective tax rate.

第四季度，我們的調整後每股收益為 1.06 美元，去年同期為 0.93 美元。殯葬和墓地業務的收入、毛利和可比利潤率百分比均有所增加，為調整後每股收益貢獻了 0.09 美元的增長，而較低的一般和行政費用則為每股收益貢獻了 0.05 美元的額外收入，導致每股收益合計增長 0.14 美元。低於這一水平的是，較低的股票數量和略低的利息支出帶來的有利影響被較高的有效稅率所抵消。

Now let's take a deeper look into the funeral results for the quarter. Total comparable funeral revenues increased over $5 million or about 1% over the prior year quarter as strong core general agency and other revenue growth exceeded declines in core revenue and SCI Direct nonfuneral home preneed sales revenue.

現在讓我們深入了解本季的葬禮結果。由於核心總代理和其他收入的強勁增長超過了核心收入和 SCI Direct 非殯儀館預售收入的下降，總可比殯葬收入比去年同期增加了 500 多萬美元，增幅約為 1%。

Comparable core funeral revenues decreased by $9 million or about 2%, primarily due to a 4.4% decrease in core funeral services performed, which was somewhat offset by a healthy 2.7% growth in the core average revenue per service. This core average revenue growth was achieved despite a modest increase of 100 basis points in the core cremation rate.

可比核心殯葬收入減少了 900 萬美元，降幅約 2%，主要由於核心殯葬服務減少 4.4%，但每項服務核心平均收入健康增長 2.7% 在一定程度上抵消了這一增長。儘管核心火化率小幅上漲了 100 個基點，但仍實現了核心平均收入的成長。

SCI Direct nonfuneral home revenue decreased by over $4 million, driven primarily by a $6 million decline in nonfuneral home preneed sales revenue as a result of the anticipated negative effect of operational changes to defer merchandise deliveries. This was partially offset by growth in general agency commissions, as we are in the process of switching from a trust to an insurance-funded preneed model.

SCI Direct 非殯儀館收入減少了 400 多萬美元，主要原因是由於預計營運變化會推遲商品交付產生負面影響，導致非殯儀館預售收入下降 600 萬美元。由於我們正處於從信託轉變為保險資助模式的過程中，這部分被總代理佣金的成長所抵消。

This net decline from preneed sales revenue was slightly offset by a $2 million increase in nonfuneral home revenue, generated by a 10% improvement in average revenue per service from the effect of higher value contracts maturing from the backlog. Certain of these contracts now include merchandise or travel protection that more recently was deferred at the time of sale into the backlog. This healthy average revenue per service growth should continue as more contracts with merchandise and travel protection mature over the coming years.

預付費銷售收入的淨下降略微被非殯儀館收入的 200 萬美元增加所抵消，非殯儀館收入的增加是由於積壓訂單中價值較高的合約到期，導致每項服務的平均收入提高了 10%。其中一些合約現在包括商品或旅行保護，這些合約最近在銷售時被推遲到積壓訂單中。隨著未來幾年更多商品和旅行保障合約的到期，這種健康的每項服務平均收入成長趨勢應能持續下去。

Core general agency and other revenue grew by an impressive $19 million, primarily due to growth in general agency revenue, driven by higher average commission rates derived from our new preneed insurance marketing agreement as well as the effect of selling a larger percentage of underwritten insurance products, which carry higher commission rates versus a flex or a non-underwritten product.

核心總代理和其他收入增長了驚人的 1,900 萬美元，這主要由於總代理收入的增長，這得益於我們新的預付費保險營銷協議帶來的平均佣金率提高，以及銷售更大比例的承保保險產品的影響，這些產品與彈性或非承保產品相比具有更高的佣金率。

General gross profit increased by about $4 million, while the gross profit percentage increased by 40 basis points to just about 22%. This increase was the result of a modest revenue increase, combined with managing fixed costs to about a 1% increase for the quarter. Preneed funeral sales production decreased by $27 million or about 9% over the fourth quarter of 2023. Core preneed funeral sales production decreased by $14 million or 6%, primarily due to the transition to our new preneed insurance provider during the back half of 2024.

整體毛利增加了約400萬美元，毛利率增加了40個基點，達到約22%。這一增長是由於收入適度增加，加上本季固定成本控制在約 1% 的成長範圍內。2023 年第四季度，預付葬禮銷售額減少了 2,700 萬美元，約 9%。核心預付款葬禮銷售額減少了 1,400 萬美元，即 6%，這主要是由於 2024 年下半年向新的預付款保險提供者的過渡。

We expect to continue to see increased underwritten insurance product sales production as our counselors focus on raising customer awareness of the benefits of a fully insured product. We anticipate comparable core preneed sales production to normalize later in the spring or early summer months.

由於我們的顧問致力於提高客戶對全額保險產品優勢的認識，我們預計承保保險產品的銷售量將持續成長。我們預計，核心預付款銷售產量將在春季末或初夏恢復正常。

Nonfuneral home preneed sales production decreased $13 million or 20% as SCI Direct transitions from the sale of trust to insurance-funded preneed contracts. This transition required many of our sales counselors to go through extensive training and obtain insurance licenses and change the payment terms for customers financing their preneed, all of which contributed to a temporary slowdown in sales. As of today, we have made the transition in markets that represent 75% of our production. So this, too, should stabilize over the next few months and begin to grow again, probably beginning in the second half of 2025.

由於 SCI Direct 從信託銷售轉向保險資助的預付款合同，非殯儀館預付款銷售額減少了 1,300 萬美元，即 20%。這一轉變要求我們的許多銷售顧問接受大量培訓並獲得保險執照，並改變預融資客戶的付款條件，所有這些都導致​​了銷售暫時放緩。截至今天，我們已經在占我們產量 75% 的市場實現了轉型。因此，這一數字也應該會在未來幾個月內穩定下來，並開始再次成長，可能從 2025 年下半年開始。

Now shifting to cemetery. Comparable cemetery revenue increased by $20 million or about 4%. Core revenue was primarily responsible for the increase, as it grew by $21 million over the prior year quarter. Higher recognized preneed property revenues accounted for $14 million of this increase, generated by a combination of higher preneed cemetery sales production and higher preneed cemetery sales recognition rates as completed construction projects triggered the recognition of prior period sales in the fourth quarter.

現在轉移到墓地。可比墓地收入增加了 2000 萬美元，約 4%。核心收入是成長的主要原因，較去年同期成長了 2,100 萬美元。更高的已確認預付物業收入佔該增長的 1400 萬美元，這是由於預付墓地銷售產量增加和預付墓地銷售確認率提高共同作用的結果，因為已完成的建築項目觸發了第四季度對前期銷售額的確認。

Recognized preneed merchandise and service revenue accounted for an additional $5 million of core revenue growth, as contracts with a higher sales average are being delivered out of the backlog. The backlog value has been enhanced by cumulative merchandise trust on earnings over the life of the contract. Comparable preneed cemetery sales production increased by $7 million or about 2%, primarily due to an increase in large sales, while our core production was relatively flat.

已確認的預付商品和服務收入為核心收入帶來了額外的 500 萬美元增長，因為平均銷售額較高的合約正在從積壓訂單中交付。合約有效期間內的累計商品信託收益提高了積壓訂單的價值。可比預付費墓地銷售額增加了 700 萬美元，增幅約為 2%，這主要是由於大額銷售額增加，而我們的核心產量相對持平。

Cemetery gross profits in the quarter increased by $14 million, and the gross profit percentage increased by 150 basis points, generating an operating margin percentage of 36%. The 4% revenue growth, which includes an increase in higher-margin merchandise and service trust fund income, was slightly offset by a 4% increase in our fixed costs, impacted by increased maintenance costs primarily due to damages incurred at locations impacted by natural disasters during the quarter.

本季墓園毛利增加了 1,400 萬美元，毛利率百分比增加了 150 個基點，產生了 36% 的營業利潤率。4% 的收入成長（包括高利潤商品和服務信託基金收入的成長）略微被 4% 的固定成本成長所抵消，固定成本成長主要受到本季度受自然災害影響的地點遭受的損壞導致的維護成本增加的影響。

Now let's shift to discussion about our outlook for 2025. As you saw in our earnings release, we provided a normalized earnings per share guidance range of $3.70 to $4 for 2025 for a midpoint of $3.85. The 2025 range would be 5% to 13% growth, with a 9% growth at the midpoint. We anticipate that the effective tax rate for 2025 will be about 25.5%, some 180 basis points higher than 2024. So by neutralizing the tax effect, we would be guiding to a 12% growth, at the midpoint of our range, versus the current guidance midpoint of 9%.

現在讓我們來討論一下 2025 年的展望。正如您在我們的收益報告中看到的，我們提供了 2025 年標準化每股收益指引範圍 3.70 美元至 4 美元，中間值為 3.85 美元。 2025年的成長率將在5%到13%之間，中間值為9%。我們預計 2025 年的有效稅率將約為 25.5%，比 2024 年高出約 180 個基點。因此，透過中和稅收效應，我們將預期成長 12%，即我們範圍的中點，而目前的預期中點是 9%。

Within our funeral segment, we expect flat to slightly down funeral volume compared to 2024, with the average revenue per case growing at inflationary rates, slightly negated by the effect of a modest cremation mix increase. We do expect to see higher general agency revenue generated from the favorable impact of our new insurance agreement, which should drive healthy profit growth for the funeral segment, increasing the gross margin percentage by 80 to 120 basis points. We expect preneed funeral production to be slightly lower in 2025 as we continue the transition of SCI Direct and as we focus on increasing the underwritten insurance product sales in our core channel.

在我們的殯葬領域，我們預計葬禮數量將與 2024 年相比持平或略有下降，每起葬禮的平均收入將以通貨膨脹率增長，但火葬組合適度增加的影響將略微抵消這一增長。我們確實預計，受新保險協議有利影響，總代理收入將有所提高，這將推動殯葬部門利潤健康成長，使毛利率提高 80 至 120 個基點。隨著我們繼續進行 SCI Direct 的轉型並專注於增加核心通路的承保保險產品銷售，我們預計 2025 年預付費葬禮產量將略有下降。

While down for the year, for some perspective, the $1.2 billion of preneed funeral sales production this year is 27% higher than 2019, or 5% compounded growth rate over the last five years. As we think out to 2026, we would expect preneed funeral sales production to return to low to mid-single-digit percentage growth rate.

雖然今年的預付葬禮銷售額有所下降，但從某種角度來看，今年 12 億美元的預付葬禮銷售額比 2019 年高出 27%，或過去五年的複合增長率為 5%。展望 2026 年，我們預計預付費葬禮銷售額將恢復到低至中等個位數的百分比成長率。

For the cemetery segment, we anticipate that we can grow preneed cemetery sales production in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, resulting in cemetery revenue growth of about 2% to 3%. Continued focus on managing inflationary costs should result in reasonable segment profit dollar growth while maintaining our impressive gross margin percentages as compared to 2024.

對於墓地部分，我們預計可使預製墓地銷售產量增長低至中等個位數百分比範圍，從而使墓地收入增長約 2% 至 3%。繼續專注於管理通膨成本，將帶來合理的分部利潤成長，同時維持與 2024 年相比令人印象深刻的毛利率百分比。

Below the line, we expect favorable impacts from slightly lower interest expense and a lower share count that will be negated by the higher effective tax rate caused by the loss of deductibility of excess tax benefits from stock option exercise.

在這條線之下，我們預計略微降低的利息支出和較低的股票數量將帶來有利的影響，但因無法扣除股票選擇權行使產生的超額稅收優惠而導致的有效稅率提高將抵消這一影響。

In conclusion, I want to acknowledge and thank the entire SCI team for their daily commitment to our customers, our communities and to one another. Your dedication is the foundation of our success. Thank you for making a difference every day.

最後，我要感謝整個 SCI 團隊對我們的客戶、社區和彼此的日常承諾。您的奉獻是我們成功的基礎。感謝您每天都做出改變。

With that, operator, I'll now turn it over to Eric.

接線員，現在我將麥克風交給 Eric。

Good morning, everyone. Sequentially, I'm going to do exactly what Tom just did, and I'm going to start by taking a moment to really extend my deepest gratitude to each of our 25,000-plus dedicated associates. Your unwavering commitment and exceptional service continued to make a profound impact on the lives of the families we serve. This last year in 2024, our team cared for almost 700,000 families during some of their most challenging life moments, as well as provide a peace of mind through preneed arrangements. Thank you for your tireless dedication to delivering service excellence to our customers, as well as our communities.

大家早安。接下來，我將像湯姆剛才那樣做，首先我想花點時間向我們 25,000 多位敬業的員工表達我最深切的謝意。您堅定不移的承諾和卓越的服務繼續對我們服務的家庭的生活產生深遠的影響。這是 2024 年的最後一年，我們的團隊在近 70 萬個家庭人生中最具挑戰性的時刻為他們提供了照顧，並透過預先安排為他們提供了安心。感謝您不懈地致力於為我們的客戶和社區提供卓越的服務。

So with that, I'm going to shift to the financial part of this and talk about our cash flow results and capital investments for the fourth quarter. I'm going to follow that by a recap of our full year performance in 2024, then provide an atlag of 2025 cash flow in those capital investments, and then we'll conclude with an update on our overall financial position.

因此，我將轉向財務部分，並討論第四季的現金流結果和資本投資。接下來，我將回顧我們 2024 年的全年業績，然後提供 2025 年這些資本投資的現金流量預測，最後我們將更新我們的整體財務狀況。

So in the fourth quarter, we generated an impressive adjusted operating cash flow of $268 million. This did exceed our expectations and is at the high end of our guidance range for the quarter. So let me give you a little bit of color and break this down a little bit.

因此，在第四季度，我們產生了令人印象深刻的 2.68 億美元調整後營運現金流。這確實超出了我們的預期，並且達到了本季指導範圍的高端。所以讓我給你一點背景知識並稍微分解。

Adjusted operating cash flow was positively impacted by higher operating income of about $20 million that Tom just discussed, highlighting the strength in our underlying funeral and cemetery operations during the quarter. Cash interest was also lower by about $12 million. This is really just a timing issue associated with the bond finance that we completed this past September. Offsetting these favorable impacts was a $27 million use of cash resulting from an additional payroll cycle in the current year quarter compared to the prior year. Again, this happens from time to time with timing of our payroll funding.

調整後的營業現金流受到湯姆剛才討論的約 2000 萬美元的營業收入增加的積極影響，突顯了我們本季度殯葬和墓地業務的強勁表現。現金利息也下降了約1200萬美元。這其實只是與我們去年 9 月完成的債券融資相關的時間問題。抵消這些有利影響的是，本季與前一年相比增加了一個薪資發放週期，從而帶來了 2,700 萬美元的現金使用。再次，這種情況在我們支付工資時有時會發生。

Additionally, preneed and other working capital resulted in a combined use of about $15 million in the quarter. So in total, we finished 2024 very strong with adjusted operating cash flow of just over $975 million, which is above the high end of our most recent annual guidance range, which, again, was $940 million to $960 million.

此外，本季預付資金及其他營運資金合計使用額約為 1,500 萬美元。因此，總體而言，我們在 2024 年取得了非常強勁的成績，調整後的營運現金流略高於 9.75 億美元，高於我們最近的年度指導範圍的高端，即 9.4 億至 9.6 億美元。

So continuing on in the fourth quarter. We invested $140 million into our current locations, new growth opportunities, business acquisitions and real estate. We invested $102 million of maintenance capital back into our current businesses, with $42 million allocated to valuable cemetery development projects, $43 million, about the same amount, into our funeral and cemetery locations and $16 million into our digital strategy and other corporate investments.

因此第四季將繼續如此。我們向現有廠址、新的成長機會、業務收購和房地產投資了 1.4 億美元。我們將 1.02 億美元的維護資金重新投入到當前業務中，其中 4,200 萬美元分配給有價值的墓地開發項目，4,300 萬美元（大約相同的金額）分配給我們的葬禮和墓地，1,600 萬美元用於我們的數位策略和其他公司投資。

For the full year, we invested a total of $348 million of maintenance CapEx, which was up $23 million from both the prior year and the high end of our guidance range as we dedicated a portion of the strong cash flow during this quarter toward reinvestment into the maintenance of our funeral and cemetery businesses.

全年，我們共投資了 3.48 億美元的維護資本支出，比上年和我們的指導範圍高出 2,300 萬美元，因為我們將本季度強勁現金流的一部分用於再投資於殯葬和墓地業務的維護。

We also invested about $19 million of growth capital in the quarter towards the purchase of real estate, construction of new funeral homes and the expansion of existing funeral homes and cemeteries. For the full year, this brought the total growth capital spend to just over $100 million, which was up about $9 million from 2023 as we identified meaningful opportunities to invest in greenfield cemetery and funeral projects.

本季度，我們還投資了約 1,900 萬美元的成長資本，用於購買房地產、建造新殯儀館以及擴大現有的殯儀館和墓地。就全年而言，這使總成長資本支出達到略高於 1 億美元，比 2023 年增加約 900 萬美元，因為我們發現了投資綠地公墓和殯葬計畫的有意義的機會。

Let's talk a little bit about acquisitions. So we invested $19 million into business acquisitions in the fourth quarter. In total, we finished the full year with an impressive $181 million of acquisition spend. As I noted in our November earnings call, acquisition spend this year has outpaced our annual guidance range of $75 million to $125 million, and we are thrilled about these high-quality funeral homes and cemeteries joining our company, and we are happy to welcome all of these new associates to the SCI family.

讓我們來談談收購。因此，我們在第四季度投資了 1900 萬美元用於業務收購。整體而言，我們全年的收購支出高達 1.81 億美元。正如我在 11 月的財報電話會議上指出的那樣，今年的收購支出已經超過了我們 7500 萬至 1.25 億美元的年度指導範圍，我們很高興這些高品質的殯儀館和墓地加入我們的公司，我們很高興歡迎所有這些新員工加入 SCI 大家庭。

Let's move on to capital investments. We returned $100 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter through $43 million of dividends and $56 million of share repurchases. We repurchased just under 1 million shares at an average price of $79 during the quarter. For the full year, we returned $428 million to our shareholders through $174 million of dividends and just over $250 million of share repurchases. This brings the number of shares outstanding to just under 145 million shares at the end of the year. Subsequently, we have completed $28 million of share repurchases at an average price of $78 so far during 2025.

讓我們繼續討論資本投資。本季度，我們透過 4,300 萬美元的股息和 5,600 萬美元的股票回購向股東返還了 1 億美元的資本。我們在本季以平均 79 美元的價格回購了近 100 萬股。全年我們透過 1.74 億美元的股息和略高於 2.5 億美元的股票回購向股東返還了 4.28 億美元。這樣，截至年底，流通股數已接近 1.45 億股。隨後，截至 2025 年，我們已完成價值 2,800 萬美元的股票回購，平均價格為 78 美元。

So I'd like to shift to the 2025 outlook. But before I go there, I just want to make a brief comment about our corporate G&A expense during the quarter. Year-over-year corporate G&A expense decreased $30 million in the quarter to about $15 million. This is primarily a result of reducing our California legal reserve made in the fourth quarter of 2022 by about $20 million as the primary claim period expired during the quarter.

因此我想轉向 2025 年的展望。但在此之前，我只想簡單評論一下本季我們的公司一般及行政費用。本季企業一般及行政管理費用年減 3,000 萬美元至約 1,500 萬美元。這主要是由於主要索賠期在本季到期，導致我們在 2022 年第四季撥備的加州法定儲備金減少了約 2,000 萬美元。

When we exclude this impact, G&A expenses still declined about $10 million quarter-over-quarter, and this was primarily resulting due to differences in timing of long-term incentive compensation expenses compared to the prior year. When we look forward to 2025, we expect that corporate G&A will average about $39 million to $41 million a quarter. But keep in mind, there may be some variability in our long-term incentive compensation plans that could push us above or below this quarterly range during a particular quarter.

當我們排除這一影響時，G&A 費用仍然比上一季下降了約 1000 萬美元，這主要是由於與上年相比長期激勵薪酬費用的時間差異造成的。展望 2025 年，我們預期企業 G&A 費用平均每季約為 3,900 萬至 4,100 萬美元。但請記住，我們的長期激勵薪酬計畫可能會出現一些變化，可能導致我們在某個季度的薪酬高於或低於這個季度範圍。

Let's talk about 2025 in more detail. As we disclosed in the press release, our 2025 adjusted operating cash flow guidance range is $830 million to $890 million, with a midpoint of $860 million. The midpoint of this range assumes the following. We expect our cash earnings at the midpoint of our EPS guidance range to grow about $65 million, which reflects the growth in the underlying funeral and cemetery operations. Cash taxes were generally flat in the fourth quarter and only about $20 million for the full year of 2024. But as we have discussed several times over the last six quarters, we expect our cash taxes to normalize in 2025 by about $150 million, as a benefit we received related to a change in tax accounting method on the timing of cemetery property revenue recognition has been fully realized at this point in time.

讓我們更詳細地談談 2025 年。正如我們在新聞稿中所揭露的那樣，我們 2025 年調整後的經營現金流指引範圍為 8.3 億美元至 8.9 億美元，中間值為 8.6 億美元。這個範圍的中點假設如下。我們預計，每股收益指引範圍中點的現金收益將成長約 6,500 萬美元，這反映了葬禮和墓園業務的成長。第四季現金稅基本上持平，2024 年全年僅約 2,000 萬美元。但正如我們在過去六個季度中多次討論過的那樣，我們預計我們的現金稅將在 2025 年正常化約 1.5 億美元，因為我們獲得的與墓地財產收入確認時間的稅務會計方法改變相關的好處此時已經完全實現。

Therefore, along with the expectation of higher earnings, we are projecting total cash taxes will increase to about $175 million during 2025. We also anticipate an effective tax rate of 25% to 26%, which is about 100 basis points higher than prior years as we expect that excess tax benefits from stock option exercises related to executive compensation will no longer be available to us. While we expect a modest decline in interest expense this year on lower rates, we also anticipate the timing impact of the semiannual interest payments associated with our September 2024 bond transaction to result in about $5 million of higher cash interest this year.

因此，隨著收入增加的預期，我們預計 2025 年現金稅總額將增加到約 1.75 億美元。我們也預期有效稅率為 25% 至 26%，比前幾年高出約 100 個基點，因為我們預期與高階主管薪酬相關的股票選擇權行使帶來的超額稅收優惠將不再適用於我們。雖然我們預計今年的利息支出將因利率降低而略有下降，但我們也預計與 2024 年 9 月債券交易相關的半年利息支付的時間影響將導致今年的現金利息增加約 500 萬美元。

And then finally, we anticipate having a normalized net use of working capital of probably around $20 million, driven primarily by growth in preneed sales and timing of payables, partially offset by the timing of payroll and incentive compensation payments during 2025.

最後，我們預期正常化的營運資本淨使用量大概在 2,000 萬美元左右，這主要受預付款銷售額和應付款項時間的成長推動，部分受 2025 年薪資和獎勵性薪酬支付時間的影響。

Let's talk about investing capital this year. We expect maintenance CapEx to actually decrease this year to $315 million from the higher levels seen in 2024. Of this target spend, we expect to invest about $130 million into improving our funeral loans and cemeteries, $160 million into cemetery development projects with the standard high rates of returns and $25 million into our digital strategy investments and other corporate investments. We also expect to invest $75 million to $125 million towards acquisition. This is in line with our normal annual acquisition spend target that we've talked about many times before.

我們來談談今年的投資資本。我們預計今年的維護資本支出實際上將從 2024 年的高水準下降至 3.15 億美元。在這一目標支出中，我們預計將投資約 1.3 億美元用於改善我們的殯葬貸款和墓地，1.6 億美元用於具有標準高回報率的墓地開發項目，2500 萬美元用於我們的數位策略投資和其他企業投資。我們也預計將投資 7,500 萬至 1.25 億美元用於收購。這與我們之前多次談論過的正常年度收購支出目標一致。

In addition to maintenance CapEx and acquisition targets, we also plan to invest roughly [$78 million] growth capital on new funeral home construction and real estate opportunities, which together drive low to mid-teen after-tax IRR. Finally, as we've done over the last 20 years, we plan to continue returning capital to our shareholders through dividends and our share buyback program in a consistent and disciplined manner, absent other higher return investment opportunities.

除了維護資本支出和收購目標外，我們還計劃投資約 [7,800 萬美元] 的成長資本用於新殯儀館建設和房地產機會，這將共同推動低至中等水平的稅後 IRR。最後，正如我們過去 20 年所做的那樣，在沒有其他更高回報的投資機會的情況下，我們計劃繼續以一致且有紀律的方式透過股息和股票回購計劃向股東返還資本。

So before I conclude the remarks, I'm going to give you a few comments on our financial position. We have a very attractive and manageable debt maturity profile with tremendous liquidity. At the end of 2024, liquidity totaled about $1.6 billion, consisting of approximately $220 million of cash on hand, plus a little over $1.3 billion available on our long-term bank credit facility. Our leverage began the fourth quarter at just under 3.8 times, declining to about 3.65 times at the end of 2024, which is in the lower end of our long-term leverage target range of 3.5 times to 4 times.

因此，在結束發言之前，我想對我們的財務狀況發表一些評論。我們的債務到期情況非常有吸引力且易於管理，流動性極強。截至 2024 年底，流動資金總額約為 16 億美元，其中包括約 2.2 億美元的庫存現金，以及略高於 13 億美元的長期銀行信貸額度。我們的槓桿率從第四季開始略低於 3.8 倍，到 2024 年底下降至約 3.65 倍，處於我們長期槓桿率目標範圍 3.5 倍至 4 倍的低端。

In conclusion, our strong balance sheet, enhanced liquidity position and predictable cash flow stream continues to support all of these capital investments in our total capital investment program, which gives us remarkable flexibility to invest opportunistically for the long-term benefit of SCI, our associates and our shareholders. Lastly, again, we are most proud of the way we serve our customers this year and into the future in their greatest time of need, for which I'd like to again thank the entire SCI team.

總而言之，我們強勁的資產負債表、增強的流動性狀況和可預測的現金流繼續支持我們總資本投資計劃中的所有這些資本投資，這為我們提供了非凡的靈活性，可以適時進行投資，從而為 SCI、我們的員工和股東帶來長期利益。最後，我們再次為今年以及未來在客戶最需要的時候提供的服務感到自豪，為此，我要再次感謝整個 SCI 團隊。

So operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. And with that, I'd like to turn it back over to you for our question-and-answer period.

接線員，我們的準備好的發言到此結束。現在，我想將問題交還給您，進入我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

John Ransom, Raymond James.

約翰·蘭塞姆、雷蒙·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning. Looking forward to seeing you guys in a couple of weeks in Orlando, but Tom, the spending teacups are down, so you might -- Eric might be disappointed. The -- look, I'm going to try to do some math, which is always dangerous, but we're getting -- between the general agency good guy next year, this year, '25 and then the acquisition timing, we're getting something like a $40 million to $45 million pretax benefit from those two. Is that in the ballpark?

嘿，早安。希望幾週後在奧蘭多見到你們，但是湯姆，消費水平下降了，所以你可能會——埃里克可能會失望。瞧，我要試著做一些計算，這總是很危險，但是我們會得到——在明年、今年、25 年的一般代理好人以及收購時機之間，我們會從這兩者中獲得大約 4000 萬到 4500 萬美元的稅前收益。那大致是如此嗎？

I think look at the numbers, it's probably a little high, John, but not dramatically off. Probably a little higher than what we had at our midpoint.

我認為看看這些數字，它可能有點高，約翰，但也沒有太大偏差。可能比我們中間點的水平略高一點。

Okay. And then just looking at the long-term funeral pricing algo, I mean you've got stuff coming out of the backlog at a higher price point, you got cremation mix, you've got other stuff. Is that -- is this just kind of settling into a CPI-like price increase when you net all that stuff together? And are you seeing -- were you implying -- and I don't know that you were, but is there some sign that maybe the cremation mix effect is starting to taper off a little bit?

好的。然後，只看長期葬禮定價演算法，我的意思是，你會以更高的價格從積壓物品中得到一些東西，你有火葬混合物，你還有其他東西。如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，這是否只是一種類似 CPI 的價格上漲？您是否看到 — — 您是否暗示 — — 我不知道您是否看到，但是否有跡象表明火葬混合效應可能開始逐漸減弱？

Take off in a higher rate, you're saying?

您是說以更高的速度起飛嗎？

Meaning, is it still that 100 to 150 bps long term? Or is that going to hit a ceiling at some point where it doesn't -- it isn't as much of a drag?

意思是，長期來看利率仍是 100 到 150 個基點嗎？或者說，在某個時候，它會達到一個上限，不再成為太大的阻力？

Yeah, I think it will definitely begin to slow. I mean, that's what we're kind of experiencing in the last couple of years. It's probably -- more likely it could be closer to the 100 basis points than 150. And again, (technical difficulty). But yes, that is fair to say. And I think on your pricing question, the same, I do think CPI is a fair way of how we look at pricing from a backlog perspective. And I think the real opportunity to step on the gas a little bit is as we're selling more preneed now with a general agency commission of the way they are that that's an ability for us to drive future profitability.

是的，我認為它肯定會開始放緩。我的意思是，這正是我們過去幾年所經歷的。很有可能——更有可能的是接近 100 個基點，而不是 150 個基點。再次，（技術難度）。但確實，這是公平的。關於您的定價問題，我認為也是一樣，我確實認為 CPI 是從積壓角度看待定價的公平方式。我認為真正的機會是加大力度，因為我們現在透過總代理佣金銷售更多的預付費產品，這是我們推動未來獲利的能力。

Right. And so lastly, I just kind of step back and look at your funeral and preneed revenue growth. It's probably, let's call it, against CPI, to call that 3%. So to grow at 5% EBIT margins, have to do a little more work. Is that how you're seeing it?

正確的。最後，我只是回顧一下你的葬禮和預付收入的成長。這可能，我們姑且稱之為，相對於 CPI，是 3%。因此，要達到 5% 的息稅前利潤率成長，還必須做更多的工作。您是這麼認為的嗎？

Yeah. I think, again, we expect that when we have the volume impact from the demographics that are in front of us, that you'll begin to see that revenue growth on the funeral side tip into the 3%, 4% and 5% and 1% incremental revenue growth, as you know, the incremental profit is pretty big. So we see a future of -- like we talked about next year, we think funeral margins percentages go up. And I would expect that we would see that continue to occur as the demographic impact takes hold.

是的。我認為，我們再次預計，當我們受到當前人口統計數據的影響時，您將開始看到殯葬方面的收入增長率達到 3%、4%、5% 和 1% 的增量收入增長，如您所知，增量利潤是相當大的。因此，我們看到未來——就像我們明年談到的那樣，我們認為葬禮的利潤率百分比將會上升。而且我預計，隨著人口影響的顯現，這種情況還會繼續發生。

Yeah. So just said another way, and you can't make it too obvious for me, obviously, is that you think '24 is kind of the last year of the COVID pull-through and it gets more normalized starting next year, '26?

是的。所以換句話說，你不能讓我太明顯地明白，顯然，你認為 24 年是 COVID 疫情的最後一年，從明年，即 26 年開始它會變得更加正常化？

I think there's still some hangover pull-through because there'll be -- it's just a diminishing amount. And I think the other factors take over market share, preneed demographics that those things will offset what little impact COVID will continue to have.

我認為仍會存在一些後遺症，因為會存在──只是數量在減少。我認為其他因素會影響市場份額和人口統計數據，這些因素將抵消 COVID 將繼續產生的微小影響。

A.J. Rice, UBS.

A.J.賴斯、瑞銀。

Hi everybody, I wondered if I could maybe ask a couple of questions here. You had some volatility again on the funeral volumes and comparable cases year-to-year, and we saw that in the second quarter as well. I wonder if you've been able to drill down and -- is this just the ebb and flow you get from month to month? Or is there anything going on there? And it sounds like maybe you backed off a little bit in your expectation for '25 case growth to now sort of flat to slightly down versus flat to slightly up. Is that because of what we've seen this year?

大家好，我想知道我是否可以在這裡問幾個問題。與去年同期相比，葬禮數量和可比案件數量再次出現了一些波動，我們在第二季度也看到了這種情況。我想知道您是否能夠深入研究——這只是您每月經歷的起伏嗎？或是那裡發生什麼事了嗎？聽起來，你可能對 25 年病例成長的預期有所降低，現在預期是持平或略有下降，而不是持平或略有上升。這是因為我們今年所看到的情況嗎？

Yeah. I think that's correct. We're just seeing a lessened impact, what I'll call the ripple effect of COVID. The good news for the United States and everybody is the life expectation numbers are going back up. And so all the categories that were indirectly affected, going back to driving desks, suicide, overdose, a lot of those numbers are going the other way, thank goodness. And so I think that's got a little residual effect has got us to thinking we could still definitely achieve flat volume for 2025. But there's also a pretty good -- there's probably a good expectation that could be slightly down.

是的。我認為這是正確的。我們只是看到影響減弱了，我稱之為 COVID 的連鎖反應。對美國和每個人來說，好消息是預期壽命正在回升。因此，所有受到間接影響的類別，例如駕駛辦公桌、自殺、服藥過量，許多數字都朝著相反的方向發展，謝天謝地。所以我認為這會產生一些殘留效應，讓我們認為我們仍然可以在 2025 年實現產量持平。但也存在相當好的——可能有一個略微下降的良好預期。

So that's -- we have changed it. It is kind of a month-to-month and we see some volatility within months. I think if you take the fourth quarter this year, I think we were -- October was like down 2. December was down 2, November is down 6, right? So you get some lumpiness as you get through these quarters. And I think that's actually just a continued factor of this disruption from COVID that makes it a little less predictable than it has been in circle.

所以——我們已經改變了它。這是一種月環比趨勢，我們會看到幾個月內出現一些波動。我認為，如果以今年第四季為例，10 月的銷售額下降了 2%。12 月下降了 2，11 月下降了 6，對嗎？因此，當你經歷這些季度時，你會感到一些不順暢。我認為這實際上只是 COVID 造成破壞的持續因素，使其比以前更難以預測。

Okay. I want to delve into this switching from trust to preneed insurance sales. And you threw out 75%. I didn't know. Is that -- you think that you'll ultimately settle out with 75% of your preneed funeral sales being insurance related as you make this transition? I guess that's the question.

好的。我想深入探討從信託到預付保險銷售的轉變。你丟掉了 75%。我不知道。是的——您認為在進行這一轉變時，您最終會接受 75% 的預付葬禮銷售額與保險相關的情況嗎？我想這就是問題所在。

Yeah, A.J. So that -- I probably confused you a bit on this. We're not talking about this 75% is specifically related to SCI Direct. Because remember, SCI Direct was selling 100% trust. And we're converting state by state over time. And what I meant by the 75% is that the states that historically have produced 75% of our production, we've now converted. And so by having converted, we're beginning to compare back against insurance producing quarter.

是的，A.J.所以——我可能在這一點上讓你有點困惑。我們不是在談論這 75% 與 SCI Direct 特別相關。因為請記住，SCI Direct 出售的是 100% 的信任。我們正在隨著時間的推移，逐州進行轉變。我所說的 75% 是指，歷史上生產了我們 75% 產品的州，現在已經轉型了。因此，透過轉換，我們開始與保險生產季度進行比較。

So I think we're kind of bottoming out, if that makes any sense from a production perspective, and going back up. Now we do still have 25% of the production. Those states still need to convert this year. And that's why I was saying, I think over the coming months, you'll see it stabilize. And as you get to the back half of the year, you should see SCI Direct continue to grow.

因此我認為，如果從生產角度來看這有意義的話，我們已經觸底，然後又回升了。現在我們確實仍然有25%的產量。這些州今年仍需進行轉換。這就是我為什麼說，我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，你會看到它會穩定下來。當你進入下半年時，你會看到 SCI Direct 繼續成長。

Now on the core side, it's slightly different. We've been selling insurance predominantly, although we sold some trust product, too, historically, but we've converted to a new vendor. And remember, when we have our new partner, one of the things that we were trying to do is increase the number of sales production, or I should say, the number of contracts that have underwritten insurance products. Because what you could do is you could sell a flex product or a trust product, but it doesn't provide the protection to the consumer. And sometimes the consumer thinks they have production, they may not because it's in the form of an insurance product, but it was a flex product.

現在從核心方面來看，情況略有不同。我們主要銷售保險，雖然我們過去也銷售一些信託產品，但我們已經轉向新的供應商。請記住，當我們有了新的合作夥伴時，我們嘗試做的事情之一就是增加銷售產量，或者我應該說，增加承保保險產品的合約數量。因為您可以做的是銷售彈性產品或信託產品，但它並不能為消費者提供保護。有時消費者認為他們有生產，但可能沒有，因為它是保險產品的形式，但它是一種靈活的產品。

So we're trying to eliminate that confusion that could happen at the time of need and get people to write underwritten insurance production. And we're seeing some success. We're actually growing that component. And we anticipate that again, those production levels can begin to climb back up. We'll probably see again some mix of trust, but probably a higher mix of insurance than we historically have sold. So two channels, kind of two different reasons, and sorry for the long explanation.

因此，我們正在努力消除在需要時可能發生的混亂，並讓人們承保保險。並且我們看到了一些成功。我們實際上正在發展這一組件。我們預計產量水準將再次開始回升。我們可能會再次看到某種信託組合，但保險組合的水平可能會比我們歷史上銷售的水平要高。所以有兩個頻道，兩個不同的原因，抱歉我要解釋這麼長。

No, that's good because I think I did misunderstand it. When you made the conversion this new contract, I think you talked about potentially having about $900 million in business that you would move over annual business. Is that still the number with all the puts and takes? Or do you think it's a bigger number than that now at this point?

不，那很好，因為我認為我確實誤解了。當您轉換這份新合約時，我想您談到了可能將約 9 億美元的業務轉移到年度業務中。經過所有這些投入和產出之後，這個數字還是原來的數字嗎？或者您認為現在這個數字比這還要大嗎？

Well, if you add in SCI Direct, we're running at a $1.2 billion annual clip. I think of that as $900 million from core and $300 million from SCI Direct. Remember, SCI Direct didn't write insurance before. So in that regard, we're going to write a lot more insurance. And again, the commission rates vary depending on the type of products sold. So it's hard to predict exactly what it's going to be.

嗯，如果加上 SCI Direct，我們每年的營運金額是 12 億美元。我認為其中 9 億美元來自核心，3 億美元來自 SCI Direct。請記住，SCI Direct 以前沒有簽過保險。因此在這方面，我們將提供更多保險。而且，佣金率會根據所售產品的類型而有所不同。所以很難準確預測會發生什麼事。

But overall, we've got better general agency commission rates that should be worked to our favor. And again, if we sell better products to younger people, you're going to get higher commissions, if you sell them to older, lower commissions is the way insurance commission rates were.

但總體而言，我們獲得了更好的總代理佣金率，這對我們有利。再說一次，如果我們將更好的產品賣給年輕人，你會得到更高的佣金，如果你將產品賣給老年人，佣金就會較低，這是保險佣金率的標準。

Okay. And maybe just one final one for me. The comment on the deal. So you're guiding for $75 million to $125 million of acquisitions this year. I think you came into last year, if I remember right, with a similar target but ended up at $181 million, which obviously is a positive. Is there any comment about the pipeline? Is the pipeline still quite robust? Or is that $75 million to $125 million really reflective of what you see in the pipeline right now?

好的。對我來說這也許只是最後一個了。對該交易的意見。所以你預計今年的收購金額將達到 7,500 萬到 1.25 億美元。如果我沒記錯的話，你們去年也設定了類似的目標，但最終達到了 1.81 億美元，這顯然是一個正面的訊號。對於該管道有何評論？管道是否仍然十分穩健？或者說 7500 萬到 1.25 億美元真的反映了您目前看到的管道情況嗎？

Hey A.J., this is Eric. I would say the pipeline continues to be robust. And if you remember, we've been saying that really kind of coming out of COVID. But these deals ebb and flow. You have to make sure that it's a win-win situation with the independent family and organization that is ready and wants to raise their hand for a liquidity event. Sometimes you have a start and stop in those situations. Sometimes it takes a lot longer. These are sometimes second, third, fourth-generation families that need to align accordingly, and all want to create the liquidity event.

嘿 A.J.，我是 Eric。我想說，管道將繼續保持強勁。如果你還記得的話，我們一直在說，這確實是關於 COVID 的。但這些交易時有起伏。你必須確保這是一個雙贏的局面，獨立的家庭和組織已經做好準備，並願意為流動性事件出力。有時在這些情況下你會開始和停止。有時候會花更長的時間。有時，第二代、第三代、第四代家族需要進行相應協調，並且都希望創造流動性事件。

So the pipeline has been strong. And -- but in terms of closing the deals, it's going to ebb and flow based on that. But just as strong as I said last year that end up coming to fruition in terms of the timing of closing, I still am just as excited this year with the strength of the pipeline. So we're going to give you an initial guidance of 75 to 125. If it ebbs and flows in the right direction based on the strength of the pipeline, I hope we could exceed that again this year like we did last year.

因此管道一直很強大。但就達成交易而言，情況會隨之而變。但正如我去年所說的那樣，最終在完成的時間上會取得成果，今年我仍然對管道的實力感到興奮。因此我們將為您提供 75 到 125 的初步指導。如果它根據管道強度朝著正確的方向起伏，我希望我們今年能夠像去年一樣再次超越它。

But again, a little bit of this is we want a win-win situation. We're not in a situation where we are going to force people to sell. We want to -- that family and that organization to be very excited about joining us and have all their ducks in a row and ready.

但同樣，我們在某種程度上想要實現雙贏的局面。我們不會強迫人們出售。我們希望——那個家庭和那個組織對加入我們感到非常興奮，並做好一切準備。

All right. That sounds good. Thanks so much.

好的。聽起來很好。非常感謝。

Joanna Gajuk, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬安娜‧加朱克 (Joanna Gajuk)。

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking in the questions here. So a couple of -- same topics. So I guess, first, maybe a little more color on this funeral volume outlook. I appreciate it could be very lumpy month-to-month. But I guess any comments you might be able to give us in terms of January? Because it sounds like November was a weak month, but then, I guess, December might be a little bit still down year over year, but like how is January trending?

嘿，早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題。所以有幾個 — — 相同的主題。因此，我想，首先，我們或許可以對葬禮數量的前景多一點了解。我知道每個月的情況可能會很不規則。但我想您能就一月份的情況給我們什麼評論嗎？因為聽起來十一月是一個疲軟的月份，但是，我想，十二月可能與去年同期相比仍然有點下降，但一月的趨勢如何？

Sure, Joanna. January, on the funeral volume side is down just about 3%, which wasn't very far off our expectation, quite honestly, but we expected a tough comparison. So that's where we are, and too early to tell.

當然，喬安娜。1 月份，葬禮數量下降了約 3%，坦白說，這與我們的預期相差不遠，但我們預計這將是一個艱難的比較。這就是我們現在的狀況，現在說這些還太早。

All right. Because you also made it sound like you don't think that this is some sort of like a higher headwind from the pull-forward effect. It could be just like some other bigger factors going on. But is there anything else you might be able to glean into when you look at these numbers in terms of like why this November was such a weak month or is it some sort of like you said, volatility? Or is it more like the macro stop and the pull forward?

好的。因為您也說得好像您不認為這是一種由前拉效應產生的更高逆風。它可能就像正在發生的其他一些更大的因素一樣。但是，當您查看這些數字時，您還能了解到其他什麼資訊嗎？或者它更像是宏停止並向前拉？

Yes. I think it's a little of a pull forward. And like I said, it's not -- I guess, it's not technically the pull forward when I say we saw extended periods of excess deaths that had occurred maybe longer than other people anticipated. And you couldn't explain why, right? You just had -- you knew these categories of deaths are down, there could be cancer screenings, it could be overdose, all these different things, mental health issues.

是的。我認為這有點向前拉。正如我所說的，這並不是——我想，當我說我們看到超額死亡的持續時間比其他人預期的要長時，這在技術上並不是向前推進。你無法解釋為什麼，對嗎？你剛才知道——這些死亡類別正在下降，可能是癌症篩檢，可能是藥物過量，所有這些不同的事情，心理健康問題。

And now I think categorically, all the data that we're looking at is saying that the country is kind of healing, which is a good thing. And so maybe normalizing back. And that's the piece that's probably moved us a little bit is to say, hey, in a good way, those things are normalizing again. And now the factors that we would anticipate to contribute to our growth, which would be our strong preneed backlog, our competitive position in the markets to grow market share. And then just the general aging of America, that those three things will begin to be the more dominant talking point as we go forward, and we'll see less and less COVID impact, less and less excess deaths conversation.

現在我認為，從根本上來說，我們看到的所有數據都表明這個國家正在逐漸康復，這是一件好事。因此也許會恢復正常。這可能讓我們有點感動，說的是，嘿，從好的方面來說，這些事情又恢復正常了。現在，我們預計有助於我們成長的因素包括我們強大的預先需求積壓訂單，以及我們在市場上的競爭地位，從而增加市場份額。然後，隨著美國人口老化的加劇，隨著我們前進，這三件事將開始成為更主要的談論點，我們將看到 COVID 的影響越來越小，關於超額死亡的討論也越來越少。

So that's kind of where we are. And again, we feel pretty good about where we are. We think it could be slightly down, it could be flat. I mean, it may surprise us to be up slightly, but it's pretty hard to predict right now. And we haven't seen a real impact from the flu season yet. We hear a lot about the flu, but really hadn't seen it, I'd say, in our numbers.

這正是我們現在的狀況。我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們認為它可能會略微下降，也可能會持平。我的意思是，略微上漲可能會讓我們感到驚訝，但現在很難預測。我們還沒有看到流感季節的真正影響。我們聽說過很多有關流感的消息，但我想說，在我們的人群中，實際上並沒有見過流感。

Right, yes. Because I mean, from hearing hospitals talk about Q4 was like a year-over-year -- the lower activity on the flu, but I guess generally is tracking higher, so I guess we'll see what that means for your business. So another topic, I guess, around just in Q1, the wildfires in California, specifically outside Los Angeles. Do you assume any impact of that lingering for when it comes to your Rose Hills location from those wildfires around -- in the communities?

是的。因為我的意思是，從醫院談論第四季度的情況來看，與去年同期相比，流感活動有所減少，但我想總體上還是在增加，所以我想我們會看看這對您的業務意味著什麼。所以我想，第一季的另一個話題是加州的野火，特別是洛杉磯郊外的野火。您認為周圍社區的山火會對您位於 Rose Hills 的辦公地點造成什麼影響嗎？

Yeah. So first of all, we've had some employees that are impacted by this, and that's been our primary concern is their health and safety and getting them back to some whatever form of normalization can occur. So that's been mission number one. And I'd say as it relates to sales, it surely had an impact temporarily during the month, I think, is a distraction and people just getting displaced from their homes and all the like.

是的。首先，我們的一些員工受到了此事的影響，我們主要關心的是他們的健康和安全，並讓他們恢復到某種形式的正常狀態。這就是第一項任務。我想說，就銷售而言，它肯定會在本月產生暫時的影響，我認為這會分散人們的注意力，導致人們流離失所，等等。

So as that heals, our thoughts are, as it relates to preneed cemetery, it's a deferral and not a lost sale. So we think while there is some impact in January and probably into February, that again, as things normalize, we'll have the opportunity to bring more people and see some of our beautiful sections that we'll be opening up this year and should have a return to normalcy and some growth as it relates to California. But our thoughts are with everybody there as they continue to deal with an incredibly disruptive event.

因此，隨著這種情況的發生，我們的想法是，由於它與預購墓地有關，因此這是一種延期，而不是銷售損失。因此，我們認為，雖然 1 月甚至 2 月可能會產生一些影響，但隨著情況恢復正常，我們將有機會吸引更多的人來參觀我們今年將開放的一些美麗區域，並恢復正常並實現與加州相關的一些增長。但我們的心與那裡的每一個人同在，因為他們正在繼續應對這一極具破壞性的事件。

Right. Yes. I guess there was like 200,000 people dislocated. So hopefully, that takes maybe some time. But when it comes to your preparations there, I guess, so you mentioned opening up new sections because last time you talked about there was a section that's being developed, but that kind of blocked off access to some other sections. So where are you on that front? Like, is everything kind of now open up and ready for the traffic to come through?

正確的。是的。我估計大約有 20 萬人流離失所。所以希望可能需要一些時間。但是說到您在那裡的準備工作，我想，您提到了開闢新的部分，因為上次您談到有一個部分正在開發中，但是這阻止了對其他部分的訪問。那麼您在這方面處於什麼位置？例如，現在一切都開放了，準備好交通了嗎？

I think it's on schedule to be. I don't think everything is there yet, but we would anticipate to have new sections that open up and allow the opportunity to have some of those great sections open up and -- to our consumers. So yes, that's still scheduled to happen, I don't think the fire will have any disruption there.

我認為這是按計劃進行的。我認為目前還沒有一切準備就緒，但我們期待開放新的部分，並有機會向我們的消費者開放一些優秀的部分。是的，這仍按計劃進行，我認為火災不會對那裡造成任何干擾。

Okay. And if I may squeeze the last one. So there was a restructuring charge in the quarter. Can you give us a little bit of color like what was the driver for doing it now? And what exactly was happening?

好的。如果我可以擠壓最後一個。因此本季產生了重組費用。您能否向我們稍微介紹一下現在這樣做的動機是什麼？到底發生了什麼事？

Thanks, Joanna. This is Eric. The restructuring charge was a little over $11 million. I think the thing that you have to realize is culturally, as you've seen us over the past years and the past before that is really trying to manage this fixed cost structure in a high inflationary environment. And you're starting to see that in the numbers. As you see the margins and you see the fixed costs on the funeral side, the fixed costs on the cemetery side really start to be managed well. And the fruits of our labor are finally there over the past several years coming out of COVID, trying to manage it. This restructuring charge is primarily related to our corporate and home office and back-office functions. It really has nothing to do with the field.

謝謝，喬安娜。這是埃里克。重組費用略高於1100萬美元。我認為你必須從文化角度認識到這一點，正如你在過去幾年以及之前看到的那樣，我們確實在試圖在高通膨環境下管理這種固定成本結構。您已經開始從數字中看到這一點。正如您所看到的利潤和葬禮方面的固定成本一樣，墓地方面的固定成本確實開始得到很好的管理。在過去幾年裡，我們努力擺脫新冠病毒並控制它，終於有了勞動成果。此次重組費用主要與我們的總部、總部和後台職能有關。這確實和領域無關。

Any time that we go through and try to get better, this is one of those opportunities where we were looking at some things to introduce technology and to always strive to get better and more efficient. And it kind of crescendoed into one particular quarter, which caused it to be more or less a restructuring charge. You could see these things under the radar, but they're not big enough to just sum it together and call a restructuring charge based on our continuous process improvement type mentality, but this quarter, it did. And so of the $11 million, I would call it, 80% to 90% cash. And I would say that probably half of that is some cash savings in 2025. And that's how I'd describe it.

任何時候我們嘗試變得更好，這都是其中一個機會，我們正在尋找一些可以引入技術的東西，並始終努力變得更好、更有效率。而且這種影響在某個特定季度達到了頂峰，或多或少成為了一項重組費用。您可能已經注意到了這些事情，但它們還不夠大，不足以將它們加在一起，並根據我們持續流程改進的心態稱之為重組費用，但本季度，它確實發生了。所以，在這 1,100 萬美元中，我認為 80% 到 90% 是現金。我想說其中的一半可能就是 2025 年的現金儲蓄。這就是我的描述。

Great, that's very helpful. Thanks for this last comment. I appreciate it thanks for taking the question.

太棒了，這很有幫助。謝謝你的最後一則評論。我很感激您回答這個問題。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的斯科特·施內伯格。

Hey guys, good morning. It's [Daniel] on for Scott. Could you elaborate a little bit, please, on the outlook for cemetery preneed sales in terms of how you think about large sales activity versus the volume component?

嘿，大家早安。由 [丹尼爾] 替換 斯科特。您能否從大規模銷售活動與銷售量成分的角度，詳細說明一下墓地預售的前景？

Sure. I think for next year, what we've been looking at, again, we've guided to kind of this low single-digit percentage growth. And the way we're thinking about that is we'd anticipate the large sales that are hard to predict, as you know. So our anticipation is those would be relatively flat compared to the prior year. And so the growth is really going to come from the core production component of cemetery sales.

當然。我認為，對於明年，我們一直關注的，是這種低個位數百分比的成長。如您所知，我們對此的想法是，我們預計難以預測的大規模銷售。因此，我們預計這些數字與上年相比將相對持平。因此，成長實際上將來自於墓地銷售的核心生產部分。

Got it. And the recognition rate looks a bit accelerated in the fourth quarter. Could you speak to how you think about that in 2025 as well as some perspective on cemetery margins for next year?

知道了。第四季的識別率似乎有所加快。您能否談談您對 2025 年的看法以及對明年墓地邊緣的一些看法？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Daniel, it was higher than 100% during the quarter and you're going to see that at certain periods of time, we TRY to get our projects done and spend the capital equally, but it does tend to, as projects get started in the summer months, across the entire network, it tends to kind of peak a little bit in the 4th quarter and that's why you always have traditionally seen it a little bit higher. On the global basis for the entire year, it's in the mid to high 90s. I like that guide, frankly, for 2025.

丹尼爾，本季度的這一比例高於 100%，你會看到，在某些時期，我們會嘗試完成項目並平等地花費資金，但隨著項目在夏季開始，在整個網絡中，它往往會在第四季度達到峰值，這就是為什麼你總是傳統上看到它略高一些。從全球範圍來看，全年漲幅都在 95% 左右。坦白說，我喜歡這本 2025 年的指南。

I think it's more of the same. I think we're going to spend about $160 million in the cemetery development area. They're high return projects. We love those projects and I think the recognition rate will be somewhere between 95% and 100% or maybe the the mid 90s. In terms of margins, as we get back to growing printing symmetry sales in the low to mid single digits, you're going to see some type of, margin expansion that we've seen, but I still think it's probably a lowish kind of 30% area.

我認為情況大致相同。我認為我們將在墓地開發領域投資約 1.6 億美元。它們是高回報項目。我們喜歡這些項目，我認為識別率會介於 95% 到 100% 之間，或者可能是 95% 左右。就利潤率而言，隨著印刷對稱銷售額重新回到低點到中位數個位數的增長，您將會看到某種類型的利潤率擴大，但我仍然認為它可能處於 30％ 的較低水平。

That that you're going to see for 2025 maybe a little bit above maybe flat, maybe a little bit above 2024 levels because we still have a little bit of inflationary pressure, especially in the cemetery maintenance area that that still continues to come over, although we're doing a lot better job managing that but you know generally you're going to see sometime low approaching mid 30s, over the next couple of years in cemetery.

您將會看到 2025 年的水平可能會略高一些，可能持平，可能略高一些，因為我們仍然面臨一點通膨壓力，特別是在墓地維護領域，這種壓力仍然會繼續增加，儘管我們在這方面的管理做得更好，但您知道，總體而言，在接下來的幾年裡，您會看到墓地的低點接近 30 年代中期。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist Securities。

Can you just give us an update on your expectations for the funeral rule and kind of what you're hearing from your government people?

您能否向我們介紹一下您對葬禮規則的期望，以及您從政府人員那裡聽到的最新情況？

Well, there's -- there's so much going on in that world, I don't quite know what to say. I don't know anything that you don't know with the volatility that's happening right now with the change out of the situation in Washington. What I will tell you is we haven't heard anything specific related to the funeral rule since November or since the change out of the administration.

嗯，這個世界上發生了很多事，我不知道該說些什麼。對於華盛頓局勢的變化和當前動盪局勢，我了解的一切都在您看來是事實。我要告訴你的是，自去年十一月或政府換屆以來，我們還沒有聽到任何與葬禮規則有關的具體消息。

We continue to think be supportive of the funeral rule, but we as you know, do not think some of the things that were proposed are going to have a material effect in any way to our company. And a lot of the things we think are good business practices perhaps, and we're well on the way of implementing those intelligently by market and uniquely based on what we think the value proposition is for certain prices online and experiences online.

我們仍然認為應該支持葬禮規則，但正如你所知，我們認為所提出的一些事情不會對我們公司產生任何實質影響。我們認為很多事情可能都是好的商業實踐，而且我們正在透過市場智慧地、獨特地實施這些實踐，這些實踐是基於我們對某些線上價格和線上體驗的價值主張。

Our focus is on the customer. And our focus is on the customers' digital experience and maximizing that. And that's the good business practice, and we'll continue to do so. And if the FTC does something that changes that, I still don't think it's going to materially affect our business model as we move forward.

我們的重點是客戶。我們的重點是客戶的數位體驗並最大化其體驗。這是良好的商業慣例，我們將繼續這樣做。如果聯邦貿易委員會採取措施改變這一現狀，我仍然認為這不會對我們的商業模式產生實質影響。

Thank you. Within cemetery, tell us your -- how are your expenses trending, in particular, labor? And how do you think that, that sort of comps year-over-year? Is that a tailwind or headwind?

謝謝。在墓地內，請告訴我們您的——您的開支趨勢如何，特別是勞動力？您認為與去年同期相比，這種成長情況如何？那是順風還是逆風？

You're going to have labor pressure always, but it's definitely less than labor pressure that we've seen and talked about during the COVID years and coming out of the COVID years. When you think about labor, it's a $750 million to $800 million spend for our company all in with benefits across all the 25,000 associates that we have. A lot of the pressure came over the past couple of years in the lower tiers of the labor market, which particularly would impact cemetery and us operationally trying to take care of 35,000 acres of cemetery property that we have. And so that was some of the pressure that we saw.

您將始終面臨勞動力壓力，但它肯定比我們在新冠疫情期間以及新冠疫情結束後看到和談論的勞動力壓力要小。如果考慮到勞動力的話，我們公司為所有 25,000 名員工提供的福利總計高達 7.5 億至 8 億美元。過去幾年，許多壓力都來自於勞動市場的底層，這尤其會對墓地產生影響，而我們需要在營運上努力管理我們所擁有的 35,000 英畝墓地。這就是我們看到的一些壓力。

I think you're continuing to see kind of mid-single-digit percentage pressure in labor on the cemetery side, and it's more a lower single-digit percentage on the funeral side right now. But both of those are -- feel a lot better than they did several quarters ago or a couple of years ago coming out of COVID that we described to you.

我認為，您繼續看到墓地方面的分娩壓力處於中等個位數百分比，而目前葬禮方面的分娩壓力處於較低的個位數百分比。但這兩種情況都比我們向您描述的幾個季度前或幾年前擺脫 COVID 疫情時的情況好多了。

Thank you. If I could sneak a last one in. From a baby boomer perspective, what do you think that trend is likely to do in terms of incremental service volumes? And what's your best forecast for when it starts to fold into the P&L?

謝謝。如果我能偷偷溜進去最後一個。從嬰兒潮世代的角度來看，您認為這種趨勢對增量服務量會產生什麼影響？當它開始計入損益表時，您最好的預測是什麼？

Well, the first baby boomers turn 80 next year. And so we think within, I'd say, the window of the next few years, that you'll begin to see an incremental impact, really difficult to predict how that's going to roll out. But I do think it's kind of a stair step, a slow stair step over time as you think about the next 3 to 5 to 10 years. But that's the way we're thinking about it with taking historical trends into consideration.

那麼，第一批嬰兒潮世代明年就將年滿 80 歲了。因此，我們認為，在未來幾年內，你將開始看到漸進的影響，很難預測它將如何展開。但我確實認為這是一種階梯式的發展，隨著時間的推移，未來 3 至 5 年甚至 10 年，這種發展將會緩慢地進行。但這就是我們考慮歷史趨勢後思考這個問題的方式。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Parker Snure, Raymond James.

帕克·斯努爾、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I think we lost Parker.

我想我們失去了帕克。

We lost Parker, yes. Well, we just lost Parker. Did we want to wrap up the Q&A?

是的，我們失去了帕克。好吧，我們剛剛失去了帕克。我們想結束問答環節嗎？

Sure. That would be great. I want to thank everybody for participating on the call today. We look forward to speaking to you again in April. Have a great week and weekend.

當然。那太棒了。我要感謝大家今天參加電話會議。我們期待四月再次與您交談。祝您有個愉快的一周和週末。

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。