SAP SE (SAP) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the SAP Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 SAP 2020 年第三季度收益電話會議。

As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

At time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stefan Gruber, Head of Investor Relations.

屆時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Stefan Gruber 先生。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning or good afternoon.

早上好或下午好。

This is Stefan Gruber.

這是斯特凡·格魯伯。

Thank you for joining us for our extended earnings call today to discuss our strategy update as well as our third quarter results and the updated guidance.

感謝您今天加入我們的延長收益電話會議，討論我們的戰略更新以及我們的第三季度業績和更新後的指導。

I'm joined by our CEO, Christian Klein; and our CFO, Luka Mucic, who will make opening remarks on the call today.

我們的首席執行官 Christian Klein 也加入了我的行列；以及我們的首席財務官 Luka Mucic，他將在今天的電話會議上發表開場白。

And also joining us for Q&A is the Executive Board member at Adaire Fox-Martin, who leads our customer success organization.

和我們一起參加問答的還有 Adaire Fox-Martin 的執行委員會成員，他領導著我們的客戶成功組織。

And as usual, before we get started, I'd like to say a couple of words about forward-looking statements and our use of non-IFRS financial measures.

和往常一樣，在我們開始之前，我想就前瞻性陳述和我們使用非 IFRS 財務措施說幾句話。

Any statements made during this call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

本次電話會議期間作出的任何非歷史事實的陳述都是前瞻性陳述，定義見美國 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案。

Words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, forecast, intend, may, plan, project, predict, should, outlook and will and similar expressions as they relate to SAP are intended to identify such forward-looking statements.

預期、相信、估計、預期、預測、打算、可能、計劃、項目、預測、應該、前景和意願等詞語以及與 SAP 相關的類似表達方式旨在識別此類前瞻性陳述。

SAP undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

SAP 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

所有前瞻性陳述都受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異。

The factors that could affect SAP's future financial results are discussed more fully in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the SEC, including SAP's annual report on Form 20-F for 2019, filed with the SEC on February 27 this year.

可能影響 SAP 未來財務業績的因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會 SEC 提交的文件中進行了更全面的討論，包括 SAP 在今年 2 月 27 日向 SEC 提交的 2019 年 20-F 表格年度報告。

Participants of this call are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates.

提醒本次電話會議的參與者不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表截至日期。

In addition, on the Investor Relations website, you can find a slide deck intended to supplement today's call available for download.

此外，在投資者關係網站上，您可以找到旨在補充今天電話會議的幻燈片可供下載。

The address is www.sap.com/investor.

地址是 www.sap.com/investor。

For those of you following the webcast, the slides will be shown as we proceed to the prepared remarks.

對於那些關注網絡廣播的人，幻燈片將在我們進行準備好的評論時顯示。

Unless otherwise noted, all financial numbers referred to on this conference call are non-IFRS and growth rates and percentage points are non-IFRS at constant currency year-over-year.

除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議中提及的所有財務數據均為非國際財務報告準則，增長率和百分比均為非國際財務報告準則，同比匯率不變。

The non-IFRS financial measures we provide should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

我們提供的非 IFRS 財務指標不應被視為替代或優於根據 IFRS 編制的財務業績指標。

And this extended earnings call today is being held in lieu of the Capital Markets Day we discussed last quarter.

今天召開的這個延長的收益電話會議代替了我們上個季度討論的資本市場日。

With that, I'd like to turn things over to our CEO, Christian Klein.

有了這個，我想把事情交給我們的首席執行官 Christian Klein。

Thank you, Stefan.

謝謝你，斯特凡。

Welcome, and thanks for joining.

歡迎，並感謝您的加入。

I hope everyone is well and staying safe as COVID infection rates are unfortunately increasing again in most countries.

不幸的是，大多數國家/地區的 COVID 感染率再次上升，我希望每個人都身體健康並保持安全。

Today's announcement mark an important milestone for SAP.

今天的公告標誌著 SAP 的一個重要里程碑。

We have not only published our Q3 results and updated our 2020 outlook, but more importantly, we are providing additional insight into how we are evolving our strategy.

我們不僅發布了第三季度的業績並更新了我們的 2020 年展望，更重要的是，我們提供了有關我們如何發展戰略的更多見解。

Our updated strategy is a response to the fundamental changes in the market caught on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

我們更新的策略是對 COVID-19 大流行引起的市場根本變化的回應。

COVID-19 is an inflection point for our customers.

COVID-19 是我們客戶的轉折點。

Many enterprises have real issues to produce, sell and deliver their products in times of country lockdowns and people working from home.

在國家封鎖和人們在家工作的情況下，許多企業在生產、銷售和交付產品方面遇到了實際問題。

For most of our 400,000 customers, resiliency is achieved not just by accelerating the move to the cloud, but more importantly, by driving a fundamental change in how their business operates end-to-end.

對於我們 400,000 名客戶中的大多數人來說，彈性不僅可以通過加速遷移到雲來實現，更重要的是，可以通過推動端到端業務運營方式的根本改變來實現。

It means transforming every process for the digital world from the customer-facing go-to-market function, all the way to supply chain management.

這意味著轉變數字世界的每一個流程，從面向客戶的上市功能，一直到供應鏈管理。

SAP is uniquely positioned to partner with our customers to make this transformation happen, combined with a move to the cloud, which is why we are determined to reinvent our businesses run by co-innovating with our customers and partners across the broader cloud solution portfolio in the market.

SAP 具有獨特的優勢，可以與我們的客戶合作以實現這一轉變，並結合向雲的遷移，這就是為什麼我們決心通過與我們的客戶和合作夥伴在更廣泛的雲解決方案組合中共同創新來重塑我們的業務。市場。

Responding decisively to the requirements of our customers in a fast-changing world, results in our new financial midterm ambition.

在瞬息萬變的世界中果斷地響應客戶的需求，成就了我們新的財務中期目標。

But before going there, let's take a quick look at Q3 and the updated 2020 outlook.

但在去那里之前，讓我們快速瀏覽一下第三季度和更新的 2020 年展望。

In Q3, our resilient business model allowed us to continue to grow strongly in the cloud, and again, growing operating profit and margin.

在第三季度，我們的彈性業務模型使我們能夠在雲中繼續強勁增長，並再次增加營業利潤和利潤率。

Apart from the intelligence spend business, our SaaS and PaaS cloud revenues were up by 26%, and we continue to see a very rapid growth in categories such as commerce, S/4, supply chain, Qualtrics and our foundation, the business technology platform.

除了情報支出業務，我們的 SaaS 和 PaaS 雲收入增長了 26%，我們繼續看到商業、S/4、供應鏈、Qualtrics 和我們的基礎業務技術平台等類別的快速增長.

Current cloud backlog is up significantly by 16% to EUR 6.6 billion.

當前的雲積壓訂單顯著增長 16%，達到 66 億歐元。

At the same time, the lack of recovery from COVID-19 is visible in a lower-than-expected transactional cloud revenue because of our travel and expense solution concur which is hard to sell in times of COVID.

與此同時，由於我們的差旅和費用解決方案在 COVID-19 期間難以銷售，因此交易云收入低於預期，因此無法從 COVID-19 中恢復過來。

Our software license performance is on a similar level compared to our great Q2 results.

與我們出色的第二季度業績相比，我們的軟件許可性能處於相似水平。

On the bottom line, the benefits of our Best Run transformation project has continued to show tremendous focus.

歸根結底，我們對 Best Run 轉型項目的收益繼續表現出極大的關注。

As stated, we yet again expanded significantly our operating margin and free cash flow.

如前所述，我們再次大幅擴大了營業利潤率和自由現金流。

In addition, 28,000 customer go live over the last 9 months demonstrate our ability to deliver remotely in a challenging environment.

此外，過去 9 個月有 28,000 名客戶上線，證明了我們在充滿挑戰的環境中遠程交付的能力。

Q3 also saw many notable customer wins, including some competitive replacements.

第三季度還贏得了許多顯著的客戶，包括一些有競爭力的替代品。

Deals included: Lenovo for S/4HANA, Rabobank for S/4HANA Cloud, Swisscom and Barilla for Customer Experience, HPE and Uniper for the Business Technology Platform, LG for Ariba, Walgreens Boots Alliance for supply chain management, Lululemon for Qualtrics, Schwarz Group for Industry Cloud and Bahrain Airport for SuccessFactors.

交易包括：Lenovo for S/4HANA、Rabobank for S/4HANA Cloud、Swisscom 和 Barilla for Customer Experience、HPE 和 Uniper for the Business Technology Platform、LG for Ariba、Walgreens Boots Alliance for supply chain management、Lululemon for Qualtrics、Schwarz Group Industry Cloud 和 SuccessFactors 的巴林機場。

For SuccessFactors, actually, more than 4,000 customers and around 45% of the Fortune 500 are already running on our core solution Employee Central trial.

對於 SuccessFactors，實際上，超過 4,000 家客戶和大約 45% 的財富 500 強企業已經在試用我們的核心解決方案 Employee Central。

This quarter, we added more than 500 S/4HANA customers, around 45% were net new, take up to a total of more than 15,100 customers, 20% up over last year.

本季度，我們增加了 500 多個 S/4HANA 客戶，約 45% 是淨新客戶，客戶總數超過 15,100 個，比去年增長 20%。

In Q3, we also added a new deployment option for our private cloud service, HANA Enterprise Cloud.

在第三季度，我們還為我們的私有云服務 HANA Enterprise Cloud 添加了一個新的部署選項。

So far, we have offered deployment in SAP or hyperscaler data center.

到目前為止，我們已經提供了在 SAP 或超大規模數據中心的部署。

But there's also demand by customers who want these services in their own data center managed by SAP.

但也有客戶希望在由 SAP 管理的自己的數據中心提供這些服務。

This is why we have now launched the HANA Enterprise Cloud, customer edition.

這就是我們現在推出 HANA Enterprise Cloud 客戶版的原因。

And we are very excited that in this quarter, Lenovo has decided to become a global partner for our customer edition with their true scale offering.

我們非常興奮，在本季度，聯想決定以其真正規模的產品成為我們客戶版的全球合作夥伴。

This supplements the global GreenLake partnership with VMWare and HP.

這補充了 GreenLake 與 VMWare 和 HP 的全球合作夥伴關係。

Finally, Interbrand has issued the 2020 Best Global Brands report, and I'm very proud that SAP came in as #18 globally, up 2 spots versus last year and growing its brand value by 12% to more than USD 28 billion.

最後，Interbrand 發布了 2020 年全球最佳品牌報告，我很自豪 SAP 在全球排名第 18 位，比去年上升了 2 位，其品牌價值增長了 12%，超過 280 億美元。

Luka will now provide additional insights into Q3 and our updated 2020 outlook.

Luka 現在將提供有關第三季度和我們更新的 2020 年展望的更多見解。

Luka, over to you.

盧卡，交給你了。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much, Christian, and welcome also from my side.

非常感謝，克里斯蒂安，我也歡迎你。

We again navigated through a challenging environment in Q3.

我們在第三季度再次度過了充滿挑戰的環境。

Amidst COVID headwinds, we improved our operating profit and operating margin against a very strong prior year comparison.

在 COVID 的逆風中，與去年非常強勁的比較相比，我們提高了營業利潤和營業利潤率。

Our cash flow saw an exceptional improvement and our earnings per share was very strong.

我們的現金流量有了顯著改善，每股收益非常強勁。

Our resilient business model with a consistent year-over-year increase in more predictable revenue helped us to weather the storm in these unprecedented times.

我們富有彈性的商業模式以及更可預測的收入持續逐年增長幫助我們在這個前所未有的時代度過了難關。

Now let's go into more detail on the quarter.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解本季度。

Starting with the top line, where our current cloud backlog grew by 16%, reaching EUR 6.6 billion amid continued COVID-19 effects on our cloud business.

從頂線開始，由於 COVID-19 對我們的雲業務的持續影響，我們當前的雲積壓增長了 16%，達到 66 億歐元。

Our cloud revenue was up 14% with continued lower transactional revenues.

我們的雲收入增長了 14%，交易收入持續下降。

This negatively impacted our cloud growth rate by 6 percentage points, especially in Concur.

這對我們的雲增長率產生了 6 個百分點的負面影響，尤其是在 Concur 中。

While our on-premise software license business continued to see scrutiny over large projects as uncertainty persisted, our performance this quarter was similar to the one in Q2, especially considering the very good Q3 last year.

由於不確定性持續存在，我們的本地軟件許可業務繼續對大型項目進行審查，但我們本季度的表現與第二季度相似，尤其是考慮到去年第三季度的表現非常出色。

From a regional perspective, Europe had a resilient performance this quarter with strong results in Russia and Switzerland.

從區域角度來看，歐洲本季度表現強勁，俄羅斯和瑞士的業績強勁。

Latin America had a remarkable performance, driven primarily by Brazil and Mexico.

拉丁美洲的表現非常出色，主要由巴西和墨西哥推動。

And in APJ, Japan had a solid quarter, and Australia and India were highlights.

在亞太及日本地區，日本的季度表現穩健，澳大利亞和印度是亮點。

In Q3, our cloud and software revenue grew by 2%.

第三季度，我們的雲和軟件收入增長了 2%。

For the first 9 months, our cloud and software revenue was up a solid 4%, even though the challenging demand environment did not further recover as we had hoped.

前 9 個月，我們的雲和軟件收入穩步增長 4%，儘管充滿挑戰的需求環境並未像我們希望的那樣進一步恢復。

Our services revenue was down 11%.

我們的服務收入下降了 11%。

While we continue to deliver most of our projects very efficiently and effectively, remotely, we do see an impact, in particular, on our training business as the reopenings of our global training centers have been delayed.

雖然我們繼續以非常高效和有效的方式遠程交付我們的大部分項目，但我們確實看到了影響，尤其是對我們的培訓業務的影響，因為我們的全球培訓中心的重新開放已被推遲。

As a result, our total revenue was flat year-over-year.

因此，我們的總收入同比持平。

Now moving on to the bottom line.

現在轉到底線。

Where in Q3, again, all of our businesses, cloud, on-premise and services increased their gross margins.

在第三季度，我們所有的業務、雲、內部部署和服務再次增加了毛利率。

Our overall cloud gross margin continued its positive trend and grew by 70 basis points year-over-year to 70%.

我們的整體雲毛利率繼續保持積極趨勢，同比增長 70 個基點至 70%。

All cloud business models contributed to this margin expansion.

所有云業務模型都為這種利潤增長做出了貢獻。

Our SaaS PaaS margin grew by 110 basis points to 71%.

我們的 SaaS PaaS 利潤率增長了 110 個基點，達到 71%。

Our intelligence spend margin grew by 20 basis points to 78%.

我們的情報支出利潤率增長了 20 個基點，達到 78%。

And our Infrastructure as a Service margin grew by 800 basis points to 33%.

我們的基礎設施即服務利潤率增長了 800 個基點，達到 33%。

In Q3, our software licenses and support gross margin was up 60 basis points to 88%, despite the decrease in software licenses revenue.

在第三季度，儘管軟件許可收入有所下降，但我們的軟件許可和支持毛利率上升了 60 個基點，達到 88%。

Our services gross margin increased significantly by 500 basis points and reached 31%.

我們的服務毛利率大幅增長 500 個基點，達到 31%。

This was mainly driven by a larger share of our high-margin premium engagement business, which has proven to be effective in this virtual environment.

這主要是由於我們高利潤率的高級參與業務所佔份額更大，事實證明，該業務在此虛擬環境中是有效的。

As you will recall, our operating profit as well as our operating margin was up significantly in Q3 of last year.

您會記得，我們的營業利潤和營業利潤率在去年第三季度大幅上升。

This quarter, our operating profit grew strongly by 4% and our operating margin expanded by 1.3 percentage points to 31.9%.

本季度，我們的營業利潤強勁增長 4%，營業利潤率增長 1.3 個百分點至 31.9%。

As uncertainty persisted, we remain cautious on hiring and discretionary spend.

由於不確定性持續存在，我們對招聘和可自由支配的支出保持謹慎。

On an IFRS basis, our operating profit and operating margin decreased.

根據國際財務報告準則，我們的營業利潤和營業利潤率有所下降。

This was primarily due to higher share-based compensation expenses.

這主要是由於更高的基於股份的補償費用。

Now turning to EPS and taxes.

現在轉向每股收益和稅收。

IFRS EPS increased by 26%.

IFRS 每股收益增長了 26%。

Non-IFRS EPS increased by 31%.

非國際財務報告準則每股收益增長了 31%。

This was mainly driven by yet another exceptional contribution from Sapphire Ventures, which had a significant positive impact on our finance income as well as in our IFRS and non-IFRS effective tax rate.

這主要是由 Sapphire Ventures 的另一項特殊貢獻推動的，這對我們的財務收入以及我們的 IFRS 和非 IFRS 有效稅率產生了重大的積極影響。

Therefore, we now expect an improvement in our effective tax rates for 2020.

因此，我們現在預計 2020 年的有效稅率會有所提高。

Our IFRS tax rate is expected to be in the range of 27% to 28%, and our non-IFRS tax rate is expected to be in the range of 26.5% to 27.5%.

我們的 IFRS 稅率預計在 27% 至 28% 之間，我們的非 IFRS 稅率預計在 26.5% 至 27.5% 之間。

Now turning to cash flow.

現在轉向現金流。

In particular, a bright spot.

尤其是一個亮點。

In the first 9 months, our operating cash flow was strong and improved by 54% to EUR 5.1 billion.

前 9 個月，我們的經營現金流強勁，增長了 54%，達到 51 億歐元。

As expected, we experienced lower restructuring-related payments and lower income tax payments.

正如預期的那樣，我們經歷了較低的重組相關付款和較低的所得稅付款。

Our free cash flow was up even further and grew by 79% to EUR 4.2 billion.

我們的自由現金流進一步增長，增長了 79%，達到 42 億歐元。

Free cash flow additionally benefited from lower CapEx compared with the previous year.

與上一年相比，自由現金流還得益於較低的資本支出。

Therefore, we are again raising our cash flow expectation for 2020.

因此，我們再次上調 2020 年的現金流預期。

We now expect an operating cash flow of approximately EUR 6 billion and a free cash flow above EUR 4.5 billion.

我們現在預計運營現金流約為 60 億歐元，自由現金流超過 45 億歐元。

Let me now turn to the remaining part of our previous 2020 outlook that was issued on April 8 and reflected our best estimates concerning the timing and pace of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

現在讓我談談我們 4 月 8 日發布的 2020 年展望的剩餘部分，它反映了我們對從 COVID-19 危機中復甦的時間和步伐的最佳估計。

Back then, we had assumed that the demand environment would gradually improve in the third and fourth quarters.

當年，我們假設需求環境會在三四季度逐漸好轉。

And while we still see robust customer interest in our solutions to drive digital transformation, regrettably lockdowns have recently been reintroduced in some regions.

儘管我們仍然看到客戶對我們推動數字化轉型的解決方案表現出濃厚興趣，但令人遺憾的是，最近某些地區重新實施了封鎖。

Infection rates have reaccelerated, and as a result, demand recovery has been more muted.

感染率再次加速，因此需求復蘇更加緩慢。

Further and for the same reasons, we no longer anticipate a meaningful recovery in SAP Concur business travel-related revenues for the remainder of the year.

此外，出於同樣的原因，我們預計 SAP Concur 商務旅行相關收入在今年剩餘時間內不會出現有意義的複蘇。

Therefore, we now expect cloud revenue in a range between EUR 8 billion to EUR 8.2 billion.

因此，我們現在預計雲收入在 80 億至 82 億歐元之間。

Cloud and software revenue in a range between EUR 23.1 billion to EUR 23.6 billion.

雲和軟件收入在 231 億至 236 億歐元之間。

Total revenue in a range between EUR 27.2 billion to EUR 27.8 billion.

總收入在 272 億至 278 億歐元之間。

And operating profit in a range between EUR 8.1 billion to EUR 8.5 billion.

營業利潤在 81 億至 85 億歐元之間。

So to summarize on Q3.

所以總結一下第三季度。

This quarter, we showed tremendous results as we continued to improve operating profit and margin even against the strongest comparison.

本季度，我們取得了巨大的成果，即使與最強勁的比較相比，我們也繼續提高營業利潤和利潤率。

Based on a resilient top line performance, paired with discipline on the cost side, we had high double-digit free cash flow growth and exceptional earnings per share numbers.

基於彈性的頂線業績，再加上成本方面的紀律，我們實現了兩位數的高自由現金流增長和出色的每股收益數字。

All of this and our resilient business model position us well to emerge stronger out of the crisis and meet our new midterm ambition, which we would like to discuss next.

所有這一切以及我們富有彈性的商業模式使我們能夠很好地擺脫危機並實現我們新的中期目標，我們接下來將討論這一點。

And for this, let me hand back to Christian.

為此，讓我交還給克里斯蒂安。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Luka.

謝謝你，盧卡。

Now before looking at our strategy and midterm ambition, let me start with a brief recap of what we have achieved over the last 6 to 9 months.

現在，在審視我們的戰略和中期目標之前，讓我首先簡要回顧一下我們在過去 6 到 9 個月中取得的成就。

SAP was definitely not short of events.

SAP 絕對不缺活動。

We have streamlined our operations.

我們簡化了我們的操作。

All our customer-facing operations were combined into one customer success organization and all our application development within one product engineering unit to simplify SAP.

我們所有面向客戶的業務都合併到一個客戶成功組織中，我們所有的應用程序開發都在一個產品工程部門中，以簡化 SAP。

Thanks to our dedicated focus on customer success across SAP, we have seen a very encouraging year-to-date customer satisfaction score.

由於我們專注於整個 SAP 的客戶成功，我們看到年初至今的客戶滿意度得分非常令人鼓舞。

For the first time in several years, there is a clear positive trend.

幾年來第一次出現明顯的積極趨勢。

We have increased focus in our existing portfolio.

我們更加關注現有的投資組合。

We have decided to divest noncore assets such as SAP Digital Interconnect.

我們已決定剝離 SAP Digital Interconnect 等非核心資產。

And we end a partnership to co-innovate with industry-leading companies like Siemens, Honeywell and Bosch.

我們結束了與西門子、霍尼韋爾和博世等行業領先公司共同創新的合作夥伴關係。

Instead of doing everything ourselves, we are co-innovating.

我們不是自己做所有事情，而是共同創新。

Finally, we have started to establish SAP as a leading cloud platform company.

最後，我們已經開始將 SAP 打造成一家領先的雲平台公司。

We have always been the leading on-premise application platform.

我們一直是領先的本地應用程序平台。

Thousands of partners and customers have built applications and extensions on SAP for almost 50 years.

近 50 年來，成千上萬的合作夥伴和客戶在 SAP 上構建了應用程序和擴展。

Our intention is to repeat that for the cloud to position SAP as the leading cloud platform to transform and change the way enterprises work in the digital age.

我們的目的是重申，對於雲，將 SAP 定位為領先的雲平台，以轉變和改變企業在數字時代的工作方式。

To get there, we have put a lot of work into our cloud platform over the past 12 months, and we will continue to invest in innovation.

為實現這一目標，我們在過去 12 個月中在雲平台上投入了大量工作，並將繼續投資於創新。

And we are very pleased to see that the hard work is being recognized.

我們很高興看到辛勤工作得到認可。

Gartner just ranked us leader for both enterprise integration platforms and development platforms.

Gartner 剛剛將我們列為企業集成平台和開發平台的領導者。

The time when SAP developed and engaged with customers in silos are over.

SAP 在孤島中開發和與客戶互動的時代已經結束。

Now before we go deeper into our strategy, let me pause here for a moment and talk about why we are doing this now.

現在，在我們深入探討我們的戰略之前，讓我在這裡暫停一下，談談我們現在這樣做的原因。

The COVID-19 pandemic, which we all hoped would be easing by now, is scaling up for an additional wave.

COVID-19 大流行，我們都希望到現在為止會有所緩和，但正在擴大規模以迎接另一波浪潮。

This crisis has created an inflection point for customers, a true catalyst to accelerate their transformation effort, has put a spotlight on resiliency which is more than just about the underlying infrastructure and its move to cloud.

這場危機為客戶創造了一個轉折點，是加速他們轉型努力的真正催化劑，也讓人們開始關注彈性，而不僅僅是底層基礎設施及其向雲的遷移。

It is about changing the way our company wants to adapt to new digital business models and drive automation.

它是關於改變我們公司想要適應新的數字業務模型和推動自動化的方式。

Resiliency and sustainable long-term growth and profitability comes only by transforming the company to the needs of the consumers and employees in a digital world.

只有將公司轉變為滿足數字世界中消費者和員工的需求，才能實現彈性和可持續的長期增長和盈利能力。

Take retail, for example.

以零售業為例。

When brick-and-mortar stores shut down because of the pandemic and supply chains were disrupted, retailers that had made the move to digital did much better than those who -- they were able to continue to sell by e-commerce.

當實體店因大流行和供應鏈中斷而關閉時，轉向數字化的零售商比那些能夠繼續通過電子商務銷售的零售商做得更好。

And the digital supply chain ensured that despite the lockdown, they can continue to sell, produce and deliver their products.

數字供應鏈確保儘管處於封鎖狀態，他們仍可以繼續銷售、生產和交付產品。

To adapt new business model and to do so with agility, our customers need innovative business software, a platform ensuring harmonized semantical data models, run new digital business models end-to-end.

為了適應新的商業模式並敏捷地做到這一點，我們的客戶需要創新的商業軟件，一個確保協調語義數據模型的平台，端到端地運行新的數字商業模式。

This is where SAP comes in.

這就是 SAP 的用武之地。

With our strategy, accelerated technical migration of our customers' most important business applications to the cloud, and we are agnostic when it comes to their choice between SAP data center or hyperscaler.

憑藉我們的戰略，我們的客戶最重要的業務應用程序加速了向雲的技術遷移，當涉及到他們在 SAP 數據中心或超大規模數據中心之間做出選擇時，我們是不可知論者。

We can make it work, with the near best TCO in the market, no matter which choice our customers make.

無論我們的客戶做出哪種選擇，我們都能以市場上接近最佳的 TCO 使其發揮作用。

Second and more importantly, we will bring the full force of our business applications and platform to drive holistic business transformation.

其次，更重要的是，我們將充分利用我們的業務應用程序和平台來推動整體業務轉型。

By enabling our customers to seamlessly design, evolve or in win new business models with agility and speed.

通過使我們的客戶能夠敏捷、快速地無縫設計、發展或贏得新的商業模式。

To do so, all our main solutions will adopt the cloud platform and share one semantical data model, one AI and analytics layer, one common security and authorization model and the same application business services such as workflow management.

為此，我們所有的主要解決方案都將採用雲平台並共享一個語義數據模型、一個人工智能和分析層、一個通用的安全和授權模型以及相同的應用程序業務服務，例如工作流管理。

With our cloud platform, powered by SAP HANA, processes can be changed, enabling agile workflows.

借助由 SAP HANA 提供支持的雲平台，可以更改流程，從而實現敏捷的工作流程。

Innovations and extensions can be developed quickly by customers and partners accessing our open platform, using exactly the same data model in business services as our own SAP App.

訪問我們的開放平台的客戶和合作夥伴可以快速開發創新和擴展，在業務服務中使用與我們自己的 SAP 應用程序完全相同的數據模型。

We are convinced that the real value driver of intelligent enterprises in the cloud will be the ability to adapt and run new business model holistically end-to-end with one consistent data model.

我們相信，雲中智能企業的真正價值驅動力將是使用一個一致的數據模型端到端地整體調整和運行新業務模型的能力。

This is where we take a different approach than other.

這是我們採取不同於其他方法的地方。

Data and proto silos are the biggest inhibitor enterprises to offer a seamless customer and employee experience.

數據和原型孤島是提供無縫客戶和員工體驗的最大障礙。

You need integration extensibility and innovation to truly drive business outcomes.

您需要集成可擴展性和創新才能真正推動業務成果。

Resiliency, profitability and sustainability.

彈性、盈利能力和可持續性。

That is the only way forward.

這是唯一的前進道路。

What gives me confidence at this unique time in our history is our position of strength, our progress today and our heritage.

在我們歷史上這個獨特的時刻，讓我充滿信心的是我們的優勢地位、我們今天的進步和我們的傳統。

Our applications are more than EUR 10 billion worth of workloads, and we won them semantically consistent across the entire value chain.

我們的應用程序是價值超過 100 億歐元的工作負載，我們贏得了它們在整個價值鏈中的語義一致性。

At SAP, we are drawing on almost 50 years of business expertise of defining, redefining and reinventing the most important processes of our customers.

在 SAP，我們利用近 50 年的業務專業知識來定義、重新定義和重塑客戶最重要的流程。

And only SAP can mobilize a partner ecosystem, consisting of the best brands to fully realize the potential of any customer, no matter the size to truly become an intelligent enterprise.

只有 SAP 才能調動由最佳品牌組成的合作夥伴生態系統，以充分發揮任何客戶的潛力，無論其規模大小，真正成為智能企業。

This is in our DNA.

這是我們的 DNA。

It is our goal to enable every customer to become an intelligent enterprise, and we are determined to leave no customer behind.

讓每一位客戶成為智能企業是我們的目標，我們立志不讓一個客戶掉隊。

Especially now in times of COVID, we reaffirm our deep commitment to our customers to help them through the crisis.

特別是在 COVID 時代，我們重申對客戶的堅定承諾，幫助他們度過危機。

This new strategy and as well as macroeconomic factors have implication for our financials.

這一新戰略以及宏觀經濟因素對我們的財務狀況產生了影響。

They are the reason for the change of our midterm guidance, which I'm going to speak about next.

它們是我們改變中期指南的原因，我將在接下來談到這一點。

So coming from our previous financial midterm ambition, what are the changes?

那麼從我們之前的財務中期目標來看，有哪些變化？

Let me start with the 2 macroeconomic factors, currency and COVID.

讓我從 2 個宏觀經濟因素開始，貨幣和 COVID。

First, over the last 3 months, we have experienced currency headwind versus our previous assumption.

首先，在過去 3 個月中，我們經歷了與我們先前假設相反的貨幣逆風。

This translates into a negative 3 to 4 percentage effect on revenue and operating profit.

這意味著對收入和營業利潤產生 3 到 4 個百分點的負面影響。

Second, we now anticipate a more conservative COVID-19 recovery.

其次，我們現在預計 COVID-19 的恢復會更加保守。

We assume that COVID will impact the economies through at least the first half of next year.

我們假設 COVID 至少會在明年上半年對經濟產生影響。

And then we have 2 strategic decisions where we are charting the financial guidance to the new reality and, first and foremost, to the need of our customer.

然後我們有 2 個戰略決策，我們正在為新的現實制定財務指導，首先是滿足客戶的需求。

One, as just discussed.

一，正如剛才所討論的。

We will reinvent how businesses run, enabling our customers' business transformation in the cloud to gain higher resiliency.

我們將重塑業務運行方式，使我們的客戶在雲中進行業務轉型以獲得更高的彈性。

In consequence, we will accelerate the transition of our customer base to the cloud.

因此，我們將加快客戶群向雲的過渡。

This accelerated move to the cloud will clearly add value over the long run by increasing cloud revenue.

從長遠來看，這種加速向雲的遷移顯然會通過增加雲收入來增加價值。

And in the short term, there will be revenue mix effect as we see less on-premise and more cloud revenue, resulting in a negative operating margin impact of 4 to 5 percentage points in 2023.

短期內，我們會看到內部部署收入減少，雲收入增加，這將產生收入組合效應，導致 2023 年營業利潤率下降 4 至 5 個百分點。

Two, we will continue to relentlessly execute on productivity improvements under the Best Run program, as laid out last year's Capital Markets Day.

第二，我們將繼續堅持不懈地執行最佳運行計劃下的生產力改進，正如去年資本市場日所製定的那樣。

We are not moving away from these commitments.

我們不會背離這些承諾。

By accelerating the move into the cloud, we will even further increase the productivity improvements in our cloud delivery operations.

通過加速遷移到雲中，我們將進一步提高雲交付運營的生產力。

We have decided to speed up the modernization of our cloud delivery to enable a more resilient and scalable cloud infrastructure.

我們已決定加快雲交付的現代化，以實現更具彈性和可擴展性的雲基礎架構。

This will require additional investments in the next 2 years but allow us to largely complete the modernization in this time frame and achieve a cloud gross margin of approximately 80% in 2025.

這將需要在未來 2 年進行額外投資，但使我們能夠在這段時間內基本完成現代化，並在 2025 年實現約 80% 的雲毛利率。

We will provide more background on those 2 strategic decisions in a moment.

我們稍後將提供有關這兩項戰略決策的更多背景信息。

But first, I'll go a bit deeper on the macroeconomic impact.

但首先，我將更深入地探討宏觀經濟影響。

Nobody can predict the COVID-19 economic impact beyond 2020.

沒有人能夠預測 2020 年以後 COVID-19 的經濟影響。

But given recent developments, it is prudent to assume a more gradual recovery, which we have now done.

但鑑於最近的事態發展，謹慎的做法是假設復甦更為緩慢，我們現在已經這樣做了。

For our on-premise business, we have seen significant investment delays in 2020 in several hard hit industries and across all industries and geographies, we see an increasing demand to accelerate the move to the cloud.

對於我們的內部部署業務，我們看到 2020 年在幾個受重創的行業以及所有行業和地區的投資出現重大延遲，我們看到加速向雲遷移的需求不斷增加。

We thus expect software license revenues to decline further from today's levels also in the future, considering our accelerated cloud transition.

因此，考慮到我們加速的雲轉型，我們預計軟件許可收入在未來也會從今天的水平進一步下降。

For our cloud business, we assume that the negative COVID-19 impact will start to ease in mid-2021.

對於我們的雲業務，我們假設 COVID-19 的負面影響將在 2021 年年中開始緩解。

Let's now move to the strategic decision, starting with the accelerated cloud transition for our customer base.

現在讓我們轉向戰略決策，從為我們的客戶群加速雲過渡開始。

The increase in customer performance for cloud is ultimately positive for SAP as we are already the second largest enterprise cloud application vendor.

雲客戶性能的提高最終對 SAP 有利，因為我們已經是第二大企業雲應用程序供應商。

And we continue to grow rapidly even amidst the COVID-19 crisis.

即使在 COVID-19 危機中，我們也繼續快速增長。

With the journey to the cloud, as previously outlined, we are further addressing this market need, accelerate the cloud transition and tripling our cloud revenue to more than EUR 22 billion by 2025.

如前所述，隨著雲之旅，我們正在進一步滿足這一市場需求，加速雲轉型，並在 2025 年之前將我們的雲收入增加兩倍，達到 220 億歐元以上。

The ambition is based on moving our large on-premise ERP workloads to the cloud and gaining market share for our leading cloud application, firmly establishing our platform as deep basis for business transformation in the cloud, winning in new markets, increasing our R&D invest to deliver new innovations in the industry cloud, business network or sustainability, a strong focus on our customer success to ensure adoption, higher renewals and ultimately, lifetime value.

雄心壯志是基於將我們的大型本地 ERP 工作負載轉移到雲端並為我們領先的雲應用程序贏得市場份額，將我們的平台牢固地建立為雲中業務轉型的深層基礎，贏得新市場，增加我們的研發投資以在行業雲、業務網絡或可持續性方面提供新的創新，高度關注我們的客戶成功以確保採用、更高的續訂率以及最終的生命週期價值。

The incremental growth resulting from -- of this accelerated cloud transition will be even more profitable until 2025.

到 2025 年，這種加速的雲過渡帶來的增量增長將更加有利可圖。

To deliver on this target and to retain the profit focus, we have also decided to accelerate the modernization of our cloud delivery.

為了實現這一目標並保持對利潤的關注，我們還決定加速雲交付的現代化。

Luka will now take us through the financial implications of both of those decisions.

盧卡現在將帶我們了解這兩個決定的財務影響。

And then how it all comes together in our new midterm ambition.

然後這一切如何在我們新的中期目標中結合起來。

Luka?

盧卡？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Christian.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。

So let me first talk about the financial implications of moving our on-premise customer base to the cloud.

因此，讓我首先談談將我們的本地客戶群遷移到雲端的財務影響。

As Christian has already explained the strategic motivation, so let me now look at the financial rationale.

由於克里斯蒂安已經解釋了戰略動機，所以現在讓我看看財務原理。

To begin with, as you know, the cloud transition is not a new topic for SAP.

首先，如您所知，雲過渡對於 SAP 來說並不是一個新話題。

We have seen the financial impact from this basically since the beginning of our cloud journey almost 10 years ago.

自大約 10 年前開始雲之旅以來，我們基本上已經看到了由此產生的財務影響。

And over the years, as we rapidly grew in the cloud during this first phase of the transition, we had very material negative revenue mix effects on margins.

多年來，隨著我們在轉型的第一階段在雲中快速發展，我們對利潤率產生了非常重大的負面收入組合影響。

Simply because the profitability of those cloud businesses was lower than that of our on-premise business.

僅僅是因為這些雲業務的盈利能力低於我們內部部署業務的盈利能力。

But since most of that cloud growth came from greenfield opportunities that phase of the transition was always accretive to total revenue and did not put significant pressure on absolute profit.

但由於大部分雲計算增長來自綠地機會，因此過渡階段始終會增加總收入，並且不會對絕對利潤造成重大壓力。

And finally, by end of 2018, our cloud business had reached the scale and efficiency that allowed us to deliver increasing operating margins in 2019 and also in 2020.

最後，到 2018 年底，我們的雲業務達到了規模和效率，使我們能夠在 2019 年和 2020 年實現不斷增長的營業利潤率。

This quarter was actually another strong proof point for that.

這個季度實際上是另一個有力的證明。

Now the first important point to understand is that what we'll be doing now is different.

現在要了解的第一個重點是我們現在要做的是不同的。

Because this time, we'll be moving large parts of our ERP customer base from on-premise to the cloud.

因為這一次，我們將把大部分 ERP 客戶群從本地遷移到雲端。

Move them out of the upfront software licensing model and into the ratable subscription licensing model.

將它們從前期軟件許可模式中移出，轉入按費率訂閱許可模式。

A little bit like other players, for instance, Adobe have done it before.

有點像其他播放器，例如，Adobe 以前做過。

Though it will not be as rapid in our case as we are talking about an option for the customers.

儘管在我們的案例中它不會像我們為客戶討論的選項那樣快。

Why does this make financial sense?

為什麼這具有財務意義？

That's the second important point.

這是第二個重點。

Because we are increasing customer lifetime revenue as we're expanding our role from a software vendor to a cloud provider for a significant part of our portfolio.

因為我們正在增加客戶的終身收入，因為我們正在將我們的角色從軟件供應商擴展到我們產品組合中很大一部分的雲提供商。

This means we not only deliver software and support services but also we require IT infrastructure and operational services.

這意味著我們不僅提供軟件和支持服務，還需要 IT 基礎設施和運營服務。

So we are effectively expanding our share of wallet.

因此，我們正在有效地擴大我們的錢包份額。

The potential uplift here is substantial but even more important is the associated upselling potential of the business technology platform, additional SAP solutions and partner applications developed on top of it.

這裡的潛在提升是巨大的，但更重要的是業務技術平台、其他 SAP 解決方案和基於該平台開發的合作夥伴應用程序的相關追加銷售潛力。

An important thing to keep in mind here is that we do not have to deliver all of that ourselves.

這裡要記住的一件重要事情是，我們不必自己交付所有這些。

But just like today can also procure required capacities from our strategic partners bundled and at scale.

但就像今天一樣，我們也可以從我們的戰略合作夥伴那裡批量採購所需的能力。

However, as we all know, there are timing effects because the license model is upfront and a subscription model is rated.

然而，眾所周知，由於許可模式是預先的，而訂閱模式是分級的，因此存在時間效應。

Now what you see here on this slide is actually a very simple model of what revenue looks like for a software license sale, under the on-premise model versus an otherwise identical cloud subscription contract.

現在你在這張幻燈片上看到的實際上是一個非常簡單的模型，說明軟件許可銷售的收入，在內部部署模型下與其他相同的雲訂閱合同。

And it doesn't matter if it's a new customer or an upsell to an existing customer.

無論是新客戶還是對現有客戶的追加銷售都沒有關係。

In a nutshell, what becomes clear is that, one, the cloud transition causes a push of revenue and thus profit to future periods; two, the annual cloud revenue is a bit more than twice as high as the support revenue would have been; three, customer lifetime revenue and value are thus substantially higher; and four, for the transition, initial revenue and profit headwinds turn into tailwinds over time.

簡而言之，顯而易見的是，第一，雲轉型會推動收入的增長，從而將利潤推向未來；第二，年度雲收入是支持收入的兩倍多；第三，客戶生命週期收入和價值因此大幅提高；第四，對於轉型，隨著時間的推移，最初的收入和利潤不利因素會變成順風因素。

And all that is for just a like-for-like comparison that still excludes the upsell potential I have mentioned.

所有這一切只是為了進行同類比較，仍然不包括我提到的追加銷售潛力。

By 2025, the implications should get us to a total revenue greater than EUR 36 billion, with cloud revenue comfortably eclipsing all other revenue streams combined at more than EUR 22 billion.

到 2025 年，其影響將使我們的總收入超過 360 億歐元，其中云收入輕鬆超過所有其他收入流的總和，超過 220 億歐元。

This is why it is now even more important to expand our cloud gross margin.

這就是為什麼現在擴大我們的雲毛利率變得更加重要。

And to do that, we are now taking the final step in modernizing and harmonizing our cloud delivery, which I'll talk about next.

為此，我們現在正在邁出實現雲交付現代化和協調的最後一步，我將在接下來討論這一點。

Before going into the details, let me first put this into perspective a bit.

在進入細節之前，讓我首先對此進行一些透視。

Early last year, you reminded us that after years of rapid acquisition-driven cloud expansion, SAP structures and processes had reached a level of complexity and, in some cases, frankly, redundancy that called for reforms.

去年初，您提醒我們，經過多年的快速收購驅動的雲擴展，SAP 結構和流程已經達到了複雜程度，在某些情況下，坦率地說，冗餘需要進行改革。

You are right.

你是對的。

We answered by setting up the best run transformation program aimed at improving organizational efficiency and agility at the same time.

我們通過建立旨在同時提高組織效率和敏捷性的最佳運行轉型計劃來應對。

One of the key aspects of Best Run is increasing the efficiency of our cloud delivery.

Best Run 的關鍵方面之一是提高我們的雲交付效率。

And we have already made great progress in that regard, as shown by the cloud gross margin expansion over the last 2 years.

我們已經在這方面取得了很大進展，過去 2 年雲計算毛利率的增長表明了這一點。

But in order to attain the full benefits of our cloud delivery modernization, we need to take a final step.

但為了獲得我們的雲交付現代化的全部好處，我們需要採取最後一步。

As you can see on the left of this slide, we have already completed most of the required steps of our cloud delivery modernization.

正如您在本幻燈片左側看到的那樣，我們已經完成了雲交付現代化的大部分必需步驟。

The final remaining step now is to lift the part of our cloud customer base that is still running on our legacy cloud delivery platforms onto either our internal converged cloud or the hyperscalers.

現在剩下的最後一步是將仍在我們的傳統雲交付平台上運行的部分雲客戶群提升到我們的內部融合雲或超大規模。

In other words, our modernized and harmonized 4 plus 1 cloud delivery.

換句話說，我們對 4 加 1 雲交付進行了現代化和協調。

And we are now planning to accelerate this move and complete most of that lift already by end of 2022.

我們現在計劃加快這一舉措，並在 2022 年底之前完成大部分提升。

We expect this to drive a temporary acceleration of cloud investments through 2022, but the benefits of doing this will be significant.

我們預計這將在 2022 年之前推動雲投資暫時加速，但這樣做的好處將是巨大的。

It will increase capacity utilization, will allow us to procure infrastructure or infrastructure services at scale and to automate managed services.

它將提高容量利用率，使我們能夠大規模採購基礎設施或基礎設施服務，並使託管服務自動化。

That's what will allow us to achieve a cloud gross margin of approximately 80% by 2025.

這將使我們能夠在 2025 年之前實現大約 80% 的雲毛利率。

On top, it further increases the stability and resiliency of our cloud solutions and speeds up innovation even in the applications, driving customer success and thus cloud revenue via more cross selling and higher renewals.

最重要的是，它進一步提高了我們雲解決方案的穩定性和彈性，甚至在應用程序中也加速了創新，推動客戶成功，從而通過更多的交叉銷售和更高的續訂率推動雲收入。

Again, that is what our customers rightly expect from us, and we have every intent to deliver.

同樣，這正是我們的客戶對我們的正確期望，我們有充分的意願去實現。

So this all then comes together in the new 2025 ambition.

因此，所有這些都將匯集到新的 2025 年雄心壯誌中。

The combined impact of what we just discussed means that over the next 2 years, we expect to see muted growth of revenue, accompanied by a flat to slightly lower operating profit.

我們剛才討論的綜合影響意味著在未來兩年內，我們預計收入增長緩慢，營業利潤持平或略有下降。

After 2022, momentum will pick up considerably low.

2022 年之後，勢頭將回升到相當低的水平。

The initial headwinds of the accelerated cloud transition will start to turn into tailwinds for revenue and profit.

加速雲轉型的最初逆風將開始轉變為收入和利潤的順風。

In addition, we will have completed our increased investment into the accelerated cloud delivery modernization.

此外，我們將完成對加速雲交付現代化的增加投資。

And that translates into accelerated revenue growth and double-digit operating profit growth from 2023 onwards.

從 2023 年開始，這將轉化為收入加速增長和營業利潤兩位數增長。

And so by 2025, we expect this trajectory to take us to cloud revenue greater than EUR 22 billion, total revenue greater than EUR 36 billion and an operating profit of greater than EUR 11.5 billion.

因此，到 2025 年，我們預計這一軌跡將使我們的雲收入超過 220 億歐元，總收入超過 360 億歐元，營業利潤超過 115 億歐元。

This 2025 ambition also means that, one, we will significantly increase our share of cloud revenue, making it by far the primary revenue stream; two, we will significantly increase our more predictable revenue share to about 85%; and three, we will continue to focus on bottom line efficiency.

這個 2025 年的雄心也意味著，第一，我們將顯著增加我們在雲收入中的份額，使其成為迄今為止的主要收入來源；第二，我們將把更可預測的收入份額顯著提高到 85% 左右；第三，我們將繼續關注底線效率。

Rest assured that we will continue to drive the Best Run project, streamlining SAP and setting it up for efficiency, simplicity and sustainable long-term success, aiming to come out of the transition with sustainable double-digit operating profit growth from 2023 to 2025 and beyond.

請放心，我們將繼續推動 Best Run 項目，精簡 SAP 並將其設置為高效、簡單和可持續的長期成功，目標是在 2023 年至 2025 年以可持續的兩位數營業利潤增長結束轉型，並超過。

I'll now hand back to Christian for closing remarks.

我現在將交還給 Christian 作結束語。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Luka.

謝謝你，盧卡。

And before we come to Q&A, let me close it out.

在我們開始問答之前，讓我結束它。

We recognize this is a significant change when compared to the previous strategy, the former 2023 ambition.

我們認識到，與之前的 2023 年戰略相比，這是一個重大變化。

We are at an inflection point where customers are asking us to help accelerate their business transformation to gain resiliency and position them to emerge stronger out of the crisis.

我們正處於一個轉折點，客戶要求我們幫助加速他們的業務轉型以獲得彈性，並使他們能夠在危機中變得更加強大。

We see that as a unique opportunity to partner with our customers on their journey in a way that only SAP can.

我們認為這是一個獨特的機會，可以以只有 SAP 可以的方式與我們的客戶在他們的旅程中合作。

In large part, due to our deep knowledge of business processes, our innovative solutions and technology and the trust we have established over our operating history.

在很大程度上，由於我們對業務流程的深入了解、我們的創新解決方案和技術以及我們在運營歷史中建立的信任。

That's why we have adapted our strategy and financial ambition.

這就是為什麼我們調整了我們的戰略和財務目標。

As the CEO of SAP, I firmly believe that prioritizing sustainable value creation has to be our top priority.

作為 SAP 的首席執行官，我堅信優先創造可持續價值必須是我們的首要任務。

Therefore, we will not weigh the success of our customers and the significant growth potential of SAP against short-term margin maximization.

因此，我們不會權衡客戶的成功和 SAP 的巨大增長潛力與短期利潤最大化。

Now let's open it up for questions.

現在讓我們打開它來提問。

Yes, thank you very much.

是的謝謝你。

I hand it back to the moderator.

我把它還給主持人。

You can now start the Q&A session, please.

現在請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll now take our first question.

我們現在開始第一個問題。

This question comes from Adam Wood from Morgan Stanley.

這個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當伍德。

I've got 2, please.

我有2個，謝謝。

Maybe just first of all, you've made very clear that there's a big move to cloud underway.

也許首先，您已經非常清楚地表明正在進行向雲計算的重大轉變。

And I think everybody will understand that.

我想每個人都會明白這一點。

But in the past, you've given customers choice in terms of how they pay, wherever they run between bringing licenses to hosting deals or paying subscription.

但在過去，您已經讓客戶在支付方式方面做出選擇，無論他們是在將許可證用於託管交易還是支付訂閱之間進行選擇。

We understand that for you, there's a higher lifetime value of customer in subscription.

我們了解，對於您而言，訂閱具有更高的客戶生命週期價值。

But obviously, for customers, that means they end up paying you more over the lifetime.

但很明顯，對於客戶而言，這意味著他們最終會在整個生命週期內支付給你更多的錢。

So could you maybe just help us understand why these large SAP customers now want to run on subscription?

那麼，您能否幫助我們理解為什麼這些大型 SAP 客戶現在想要訂閱？

And are you forcing that transition or you continue to give choice?

你是在強迫這種轉變，還是繼續給予選擇？

So any help you can give us on why that change is happening would be useful.

因此，您可以就發生這種變化的原因向我們提供的任何幫助都是有用的。

And then maybe secondly, on cloud revenue, you highlighted now, there's a much bigger part of that going to come from cannibalization as on-prem moves to cloud.

然後也許其次，關於雲收入，你現在強調，隨著內部部署轉移到雲，其中很大一部分將來自蠶食。

Is there any way you could help us understand what the underlying growth of new business in the cloud is going to run at versus how much of that cloud revenue is going to come incrementally from cannibalizing the on-premise?

您有什麼方法可以幫助我們了解雲中新業務的潛在增長將以何種方式運行，而云收入中有多少將來自蠶食內部部署？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks a lot, Adam.

非常感謝，亞當。

Let me start, and then Luka, Adaire, you can build on top of that.

讓我開始，然後是 Luka、Adaire，你們可以在此基礎上進行構建。

I mean, first, what we have seen in the last 6 months is definitely when I'm talking to the CEOs, look, I mean for many enterprises, the supply chain is heavily disrupted.

我的意思是，首先，我們在過去 6 個月中看到的肯定是當我與首席執行官交談時，看，我的意思是對於許多企業來說，供應鏈嚴重中斷。

They sometimes don't even know, can they produce and deliver the next day.

他們有時甚至不知道，他們能否在第二天生產並交付。

And that is the inflection point of our customers where they are saying, "Hey, I really want to move now to the cloud.

這就是我們客戶的轉折點，他們說，“嘿，我現在真的很想搬到雲端。

I want to have a resilient operation.

我想要有彈性的操作。

Why should I still operate my own IT data center?" So that's the first point.

我為什麼還要運營自己的 IT 數據中心？”這是第一點。

And then the second point is, doing a business transformation, Adam, is not easy.

然後第二點是，亞當，進行業務轉型並不容易。

So you have to change how our company works.

所以你必須改變我們公司的運作方式。

You have to redesign business process.

您必須重新設計業務流程。

And also our customers, including the large ones, believe let's move to the cloud and also let SAP help us to transform our business, show us the best practices you have for the digital age, let us standardize our solution.

我們的客戶，包括大客戶，相信讓我們轉向雲端，讓 SAP 幫助我們轉變業務，向我們展示數字時代的最佳實踐，讓我們標準化我們的解決方案。

And now that the platform is ready, let's also build the exemptions in the cloud and really consume regular innovations on the fly.

現在平台已經準備就緒，我們也可以在雲中構建豁免，真正即時地使用常規創新。

So besides the commercial aspect, it's really about the resiliency and the transformation of their business.

因此，除了商業方面，這實際上與他們業務的彈性和轉型有關。

And where is this cloud revenue going to come from?

雲收入從何而來？

First, yes, of course, there is a change.

首先，是的，當然有變化。

There is accelerated move of our installed base to the cloud.

我們的安裝基礎正在加速遷移到雲端。

But second, this quarter, you have heard me saying, 45% of our S/4HANA Cloud customers are net new, which speaks first, for the competitiveness of the solution finally; and second that we will also win in the years to come further market share, not only in S/4, but we really also will double down on HR procurement, on CX, on focused areas in CX, and we will also invest into new innovation, the industry cloud.

但第二，這個季度，你聽到我說，我們的 S/4HANA Cloud 客戶中有 45% 是全新的，這首先說明了解決方案的競爭力；其次，我們還將在未來幾年贏得更多的市場份額，不僅是在 S/4 中，而且我們真的也會在人力資源採購、客戶體驗、客戶體驗的重點領域加倍努力，我們還將投資新的創新，產業雲。

I mean all of our customers are saying, all in, please help us to really digitize also our industry-related business processes.

我的意思是我們所有的客戶都在說，請幫助我們真正數字化我們與行業相關的業務流程。

Because you know what, again, it all goes back into our ERP, it all goes back into our supply chain.

因為你知道嗎，這一切又回到了我們的 ERP，又回到了我們的供應鏈。

Let's try massive business transformation on your platform with the industry cloud in conjunction with our LoB applications.

讓我們嘗試在您的平台上使用行業雲和我們的 LoB 應用程序進行大規模業務轉型。

And third, you heard us talking about land, adopt, consume and expand by bringing all of our customer-facing functions together.

第三，您聽到我們通過將所有面向客戶的功能整合在一起來談論土地、採用、消費和擴展。

First, you heard me saying, our customer satisfaction score increased quite significantly.

首先，您聽到我說，我們的客戶滿意度得分顯著提高。

And we are convinced that we will also see high renewal rate in the future.

而且我們相信，未來我們也會看到高續訂率。

And with that, Luka, Adaire, any comments?

Luka、Adaire，還有什麼意見嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So just to quickly add, I mean, there is undoubtedly going to be some cannibalization effect on customers moving from established license and support agreements over to subscription.

所以我想快速補充一下，我的意思是，毫無疑問會對客戶從既定的許可和支持協議轉向訂閱產生一些蠶食效應。

However that is actually not the majority of the growth that we are expecting.

然而，這實際上並不是我們預期的大部分增長。

We actually assume that we can run a CAGR that is approaching 20% with the new solutions that we're adding in industry cloud, business network and other adjacent areas that we have discussed before, the business technology platform growth that we expect, as well as also the uptick that we expect coming out of the COVID crisis, again, from some of the solutions that have particularly suffered now that are actually clear market leaders, and therefore, can be expected to actually expand their lead and reach after the crisis is over, such as Concur.

我們實際上假設我們可以運行一個接近 20% 的複合年增長率，我們在行業雲、業務網絡和我們之前討論過的其他相鄰領域中添加的新解決方案，我們期望的業務技術平台增長，以及以及我們期望從 COVID 危機中走出來的增長，再次來自一些現在特別受苦的解決方案，這些解決方案實際上是明確的市場領導者，因此可以預期在危機結束後實際上會擴大他們的領先地位和影響範圍過，如Concur。

So the cannibalization impact adds then, so to say, the cream on top of the growth rates but it's not a major, let alone the exclusive, driver of growth.

因此，可以說，蠶食影響增加了增長率之上的奶油，但它不是主要的，更不用說唯一的增長驅動力了。

And we will be transparent with you.

我們將對您保持透明。

We will, starting next year, give you clear metrics of the number of customers that have transformed from installed base legacy license arrangements to new subscription options as well as net new customers that we're adding for this as well.

從明年開始，我們將向您提供明確的指標，說明已從已安裝的傳統許可安排轉變為新訂閱選項的客戶數量，以及我們為此添加的淨新客戶數量。

You know this reporting from the S/4HANA side, but we will break it out with a particular view to the cloud starting from next year.

您從 S/4HANA 方面了解此報告，但我們將從明年開始以特定的雲視圖對其進行分解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question.

下一個問題。

Our next question comes from James Goodman from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的詹姆斯古德曼。

Maybe I could ask a couple as well.

也許我也可以問一對夫婦。

The first is around the customer relationship.

首先是圍繞客戶關係。

I mean I sense within this guidance that you are increasing the emphasis of SAP, owning the customer relationship or providing your own infrastructure or at least passing through more within your own contractual terms, the hyperscaler infrastructure.

我的意思是，我在本指南中感覺到你正在增加 SAP 的重點，擁有客戶關係或提供你自己的基礎設施，或者至少在你自己的合同條款中通過更多，超大規模基礎設施。

So can I ask you what that means for your own IaaS expectations as we look out through this transition?

那麼，在我們展望這一轉變時，我可以問您這對您自己的 IaaS 期望意味著什麼嗎？

And particularly as we look out to the 80% gross margin, target for the cloud.

特別是當我們展望 80% 的毛利率時，雲的目標。

I'm trying to think about the mix of IaaS within that.

我正在嘗試考慮其中的 IaaS 組合。

And the second question, is really just a simple one around the cost investment.

第二個問題，實際上只是一個圍繞成本投資的簡單問題。

There's a lot of moving parts within the numbers.

數字中有很多變化的部分。

I just wondered, if you look at the 4 to 5 percentage points change that you've put out there for 2023.

我只是想知道，如果你看看你為 2023 年提出的 4 到 5 個百分點的變化。

Can you just help us with the split there in your own modeling between the gross profit impact from the lower revenue and the transitional look that you spoke to versus the magnitude of the incremental investment that will be annualizing in the business at that point?

您能否幫助我們在您自己的模型中將較低收入的毛利潤影響和您所說的過渡外觀與屆時將在業務中年化的增量投資的規模進行拆分？

And maybe I can start and then Luka, you can again build on top of that.

也許我可以開始，然後是 Luka，你可以在此基礎上再次構建。

I mean you said it very well, actually, it's about owning the customer relationship when it comes to their business transformation.

我的意思是你說得很好，實際上，這是關於在業務轉型方面擁有客戶關係。

And this is why so key now for SAP that the SAP Cloud Platform is really the foundation of all of our cloud applications.

這就是為什麼現在對 SAP 如此重要，以至於 SAP Cloud Platform 確實是我們所有云應用程序的基礎。

And that, we are actually also delivering the integrations for hybrid lenses that we have an open platform.

而且，我們實際上還在為我們擁有開放平台的混合鏡頭提供集成。

And now that we are making tremendous progress on the integration front, we are maturing our business services on top of that platform.

現在我們在集成方面取得了巨大進步，我們正在該平台上完善我們的業務服務。

But think about it when there is one semantical data model.

但是當只有一種語義數據模型時，請考慮一下。

Now we can tell our partners why to modify the ERPs, let's come to the platform and build the extensions there because there is now one semantical data model, there's a workflow, there's the authorization.

現在我們可以告訴我們的合作夥伴為什麼要修改 ERP，讓我們來到平台並在那裡構建擴展，因為現在有一個語義數據模型，有一個工作流，有授權。

It's everything what you need to seamlessly expand the SAP solution portfolio.

它是您無縫擴展 SAP 解決方案組合所需的一切。

And this is why, on top of our infrastructure-as-a-service business, definitely, we want to push now the platform, and we definitely also want to push all the applications from the Software-as-a-Service business.

這就是為什麼，在我們的基礎設施即服務業務之上，我們現在肯定想推出平台，我們肯定也想推出軟件即服務業務的所有應用程序。

But that now comes together.

但現在走到了一起。

At the end, we are selling the product, we are selling the digital intelligent enterprise, we are selling business processes design for the digital age.

最後，我們在賣產品，我們在賣數字智能企業，我們在賣數字時代的業務流程設計。

This is what we are doing and this is what we will also position in the years to come.

這就是我們正在做的，這也是我們在未來幾年中的定位。

Yes.

是的。

And to build on that, it's very important to understand that we are not positioning an Infrastructure-as-a-Service solution here.

在此基礎上，了解我們在這裡沒有定位基礎設施即服務解決方案非常重要。

We're positioning a holistic solution, moving our customers to the cloud and transforming and modernizing the landscape based on our new ERP application architecture.

我們正在定位一個整體解決方案，將我們的客戶轉移到雲端，並根據我們新的 ERP 應用程序架構對環境進行轉型和現代化改造。

This offering is, therefore, a Software-as-a-Service offering and not an Infrastructure-as-a-Service offering, where the customer basically would just bring a license, and then we would do the application management on top.

因此，該產品是軟件即服務產品，而不是基礎設施即服務產品，客戶基本上只需要攜帶許可證，然後我們會在上面進行應用程序管理。

That's just very important.

這非常重要。

And therefore, this will not have a bearing on Infrastructure as a Service.

因此，這不會對基礎架構即服務產生影響。

And secondly, on the margin side, we are, of course, anticipating the margin inflow from those additional customers that we're getting in core ERP together with the development of the rest of the portfolio to ultimately then reach the 80% gross margin by 2025.

其次，在利潤方面，我們當然預計我們在核心 ERP 中獲得的那些額外客戶的利潤流入以及其餘投資組合的發展最終將達到 80% 的毛利率2025.

And just to also clarify on 2023, the investments that we are looking to put in and that we are planning to make to kind of reach the home stretch of our converged cloud modernization are actually already going to turn into an operating profit tailwind in 2023.

還要澄清一下 2023 年，我們希望進行的投資以及我們計劃進行的投資，以達到我們融合雲現代化的主要階段，實際上已經在 2023 年轉化為營業利潤的順風。

So this is not negatively affecting 2023 any longer.

所以這不再對 2023 年產生負面影響。

The impact on 2023 margins is basically due to the changed revenue mix that we assume and the shift of the business model to ratable recognition, which will then turn basically increasingly into a tailwind and will allow us to catch up and actually increase the margin again starting from 2023.

對 2023 年利潤率的影響基本上是由於我們假設的收入組合發生變化以及商業模式向可評級認可的轉變，這將基本上逐漸變成順風，使我們能夠趕上並實際再次增加利潤率開始從 2023 年開始。

So from that perspective those incremental investments are actually immediately accretive to operating profit starting already in the year after they have been made.

因此，從這個角度來看，這些增量投資實際上會在完成投資後的一年內立即開始增加營業利潤。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Philip Winslow from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Philip Winslow。

A question for Christian and Adaire.

克里斯蒂安和阿黛爾的問題。

If I think back to the financial crisis, obviously, there were a lot of projects that were delayed in late '08 and '09, but then you saw a catch-up in 2010, 2011 in terms of just the license sales and otherwise, projects just getting pushed.

如果我回想一下金融危機，顯然有很多項目在 08 年末和 09 年被推遲，但隨後在 2010 年和 2011 年，僅在許可證銷售方面就出現了赶超，項目剛剛被推動。

How do you think about our current situation?

您如何看待我們目前的情況？

Obviously, you mentioned projects getting delayed and pushed.

很明顯，你提到了項目被推遲和推遲。

What are your customers telling you about, hey, have those projects simply been pushed?

您的客戶告訴您什麼，嘿，這些項目只是被推動了嗎？

Have they been shifted to the cloud and sort of the shape of the recovery is just simply different?

他們是否已轉移到雲中並且恢復的形式只是不同？

I mean how should we think about to sort of this crisis versus financial crisis in terms of how you think about sort of the shape of the recovery and what customers are telling you?

我的意思是，我們應該如何根據您如何看待復甦的形式以及客戶告訴您的內容來考慮對這場危機與金融危機進行排序？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Philip, for the question.

謝謝菲利普提出的問題。

I'll go first and then perhaps Christian or Luka can add any comments if they have then.

我先發言，然後也許 Christian 或 Luka 可以添加任何評論（如果他們有的話）。

I think when we describe projects being pushed, I would describe it as the scale and the scope of the projects being pushed.

我認為當我們描述正在推動的項目時，我會將其描述為正在推動的項目的規模和範圍。

I think it's very clear in the narrative that we have with our customers that everybody understands the need for the digitization of key business processes so that agility becomes part of their business landscape.

我認為在我們與客戶的敘述中非常清楚，每個人都理解關鍵業務流程數字化的必要性，以便敏捷性成為他們業務環境的一部分。

So it isn't that the project is stopped, it isn't that it isn't a journey that the customer is on.

所以這並不是說項目停止了，也不是說這不是客戶正在進行的旅程。

I would describe it as a much more staged approach than the approaches that we've seen in the past where the work will continue over a period of time.

我會將其描述為比我們過去看到的工作將持續一段時間的方法更加分階段的方法。

And we can see that even in our own services utilization, where we still have a very significant number in terms of utilized days in our services business.

我們可以看到，即使在我們自己的服務利用率中，我們在服務業務的使用天數方面仍然有非常多的數字。

So I see it really as a more recurring element of project stages that the customer commits to rather than a large-scale program of work initially, and that's being what's underpinning some of the conversations that we've had with our customers.

因此，我確實將其視為客戶承諾的項目階段中更反復出現的元素，而不是最初的大規模工作計劃，這也是我們與客戶進行的一些對話的基礎。

Yes.

是的。

And I can just comment on the cloud revenue side.

我只能對雲收入方面發表評論。

I mean obviously we are talking a lot about Concur.

我的意思是很明顯我們正在談論很多關於 Concur 的事情。

And yes, if you exclude our Concur business for travel and expense management, our cloud revenue would be up by 20%.

是的，如果您排除我們用於差旅和費用管理的 Concur 業務，我們的雲收入將增長 20%。

Our Software-as-a-Service solutions are increasing by 26%.

我們的軟件即服務解決方案增長了 26%。

So [see], there is no real deceleration.

所以[看]，沒有真正的減速。

And also in all fairness to Concur, mean after the crisis, this is the market-leading solution in the market, full stop, and there will be, of course, a bounce back.

而且公平地說，Concur 意味著在危機之後，這是市場領先的解決方案，句號，當然會有反彈。

It, of course, depends on when can we travel again?

當然，這取決於我們什麼時候可以再次旅行？

When is business travel coming up?

商務旅行何時到來？

So altogether, I'm extremely confident that this business will, of course, come back.

所以總的來說，我非常有信心這項業務當然會回來。

It's just the question of timing.

這只是時間問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We move to the next question please.

請轉到下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Michael Briest from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Michael Briest。

Two for me as well.

我也有兩個。

Just in terms of the cloud gross margin trajectory, Luka, obviously, there's investments for the next couple of years.

就雲毛利率軌跡而言，Luka 顯然會在未來幾年進行投資。

Previously, you were looking for a 75% gross margin in 2023.

此前，您希望在 2023 年實現 75% 的毛利率。

Could you give us a feel of whether that's still intact?

你能告訴我們它是否仍然完好無損嗎？

And also how much lower the cloud gross margin might go in the next couple of years?

以及未來幾年雲計算毛利率可能會下降多少？

And then secondly, also for you, I think, on the free cash flow side, previously, you had a target of EUR 8 billion in 2023.

其次，我認為，對於你來說，在自由現金流方面，之前，你的目標是在 2023 年達到 80 億歐元。

I suspect that's no longer there.

我懷疑那已經不存在了。

But can you talk about cash flow out to '25 and on the CapEx side of things, give some reassurance about where that might go to?

但是你能談談到 25 年的現金流量和資本支出方面的事情嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So let me start with the cloud gross margin.

因此，讓我從雲毛利率開始。

I mean you've seen that we have continued to make progress even in 2020 despite the deceleration that we have seen in our Intelligent spend group, which is by far the highest gross margin and even Concur has still managed to increase its cloud gross margin despite their unique challenges that they are having.

我的意思是你已經看到，儘管我們在智能支出組中看到了減速，但我們甚至在 2020 年仍然取得了進展，這是迄今為止最高的毛利率，甚至 Concur 仍然設法提高了其云毛利率，儘管他們所面臨的獨特挑戰。

So I think it's very clear that we have an utmost focus as a company on this.

所以我認為很明顯，作為一家公司，我們非常關注這一點。

And the investment, as I said, that we are planning for next year and the year after to accelerate the harmonization of our cloud delivery infrastructure to our converged cloud.

正如我所說，我們計劃在明年和後年進行投資，以加速我們的雲交付基礎設施與我們的融合雲的協調。

As I said before, on the question of James, I think it was, it will be immediately accretive, starting from 2023.

正如我之前所說，關於詹姆斯的問題，我認為從 2023 年開始，它會立即增加。

So from that perspective, we believe that there is no reason to anticipate any departure from what we had in mind for 2023.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們認為沒有理由預計會偏離我們 2023 年的設想。

And obviously then see further acceleration up to the 80% that we are planning for 2025.

顯然，然後會看到進一步加速，達到我們計劃在 2025 年達到的 80%。

For 2021 and 2022 we definitely -- you should assume that there is actually a slowing in progress because we need to make the investments first.

對於 2021 年和 2022 年，我們肯定 - 你應該假設進展實際上會放緩，因為我們需要首先進行投資。

Not all of them will flow into cost of cloud to be also quite precise.

並非所有這些都將流入雲計算成本也非常準確。

We will also see some investments in cost of R&D to make sure that some of the solutions that we have not yet fully shifted can run optimally on the new infrastructure.

我們還將看到對研發成本的一些投資，以確保我們尚未完全轉移的一些解決方案能夠在新基礎設施上以最佳方式運行。

But of course, a lot of it will hit cost of cloud.

但當然，其中很多會影響雲的成本。

And therefore, the progress in the next 2 years will be more muted as well.

因此，未來兩年的進展也將更加緩慢。

From a free cash flow perspective, look, first of all, we have made tremendous progress, obviously, this year.

從自由現金流的角度來看，首先，我們顯然在今年取得了巨大進步。

Not only are we back to the levels of operating and free cash flow that we had committed at last year's Capital Markets Day, where we, of course, had a completely different profit expectation for our business in 2020, but we are actually seeing even an improvement against this original ambition when it comes to free cash flow.

我們不僅回到了去年資本市場日承諾的運營和自由現金流水平，當然，我們對 2020 年業務的利潤預期完全不同，但我們實際上什至看到了在自由現金流方面，與最初的雄心相比有所改善。

So something has happened here, which I believe is also going to be sustainable and that is an improved and more disciplined working capital management and cash collection management.

所以這裡發生了一些事情，我相信這也將是可持續的，那就是改進和更有紀律的營運資金管理和現金收集管理。

I have to give Adaire and her team a lot of credit here as well, and they have certainly intensified their collaboration with our collection teams and I believe that collaboration is sustainable and should continue to yield results also after the crisis.

在這裡，我也必須高度讚揚阿黛爾和她的團隊，他們當然加強了與我們的收款團隊的合作，我相信這種合作是可持續的，並且在危機過後也應該繼續產生成果。

Nevertheless, you're obviously right that the free cash flow that we had anticipated for 2023 is also packed to a significant spend to the profit levels that we are expecting.

儘管如此，您顯然是對的，我們預期的 2023 年自由現金流也包含了大量支出，達到了我們預期的利潤水平。

And since we are now expecting to reach these profit levels with around about 2 years delay, the free cash flow levels should also be expected to then only be achieved in 2025.

而且由於我們現在預計要延遲大約 2 年才能達到這些利潤水平，因此自由現金流水平也應該預計到 2025 年才能達到。

Having said that, that is a generalized statement based on all else being equal.

話雖如此，這是基於所有其他條件相同的概括性陳述。

And there are a couple of factors that still play a role in this on the positive side.

從積極的方面來看，有幾個因素仍然在這方面發揮著作用。

As we have discussed when Qualtrics completes their IPO, their previous cash-settled programs under the SAP setup and plan design would, to a largest extent, convert to equity-settled programs, and that will have some relief as a consequence when it comes to the cash flow.

正如我們在 Qualtrics 完成首次公開募股時所討論的那樣，他們之前在 SAP 設置和計劃設計下的現金結算計劃將在最大程度上轉換為股權結算計劃，因此當涉及到現金流量。

On the flip side, in 2021 and '22, we expect, even though our CapEx spend will remain muted, still a moderate step-up from today's very low levels due to COVID in order to procure some of the additional infrastructure elements that we need for our own converged cloud.

另一方面，在 2021 年和 22 年，我們預計，儘管我們的資本支出將保持低迷，但由於 COVID，我們的資本支出仍會從今天非常低的水平開始適度增加，以採購我們需要的一些額外基礎設施要素對於我們自己的融合雲。

And so those 2 factors will, to a certain extent, balance out each other perhaps providing a small tailwind.

因此，這兩個因素將在一定程度上相互平衡，或許會提供一個小的順風。

But other than that, of course, cash flow follows the profits.

但除此之外，當然，現金流量跟隨利潤。

And Christian, could you maybe give us an insight into the customer base on S/4 today?

克里斯蒂安，你能否讓我們了解一下今天 S/4 的客戶群？

You've got 8,100 lives, how many of them would actually be on either the private cloud or the multi-tenant edition of S/4?

你有 8,100 條生命，其中有多少實際上是在私有云或 S/4 的多租戶版本上？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for the question.

所以謝謝你的問題。

I mean, first, we have seen now a massive acceleration of the move also to the cloud version of S/4HANA.

我的意思是，首先，我們現在已經看到了向 S/4HANA 雲版本遷移的巨大加速。

As I mentioned before, COVID was indeed an inflection point, and we will see this acceleration in the years to come also for some large enterprise customers.

正如我之前提到的，COVID 確實是一個轉折點，我們將在未來幾年看到一些大型企業客戶的這種加速。

And we will put them on the wide deployment model.

我們將把它們放在廣泛的部署模型上。

This is really then, of course, relating to how standardized is the customer?

當然，這實際上與客戶的標準化程度有關？

How designed are the processes to really fit into the standard?

如何設計真正符合標準的流程？

How consolidated is the IT landscape?

IT 環境的整合程度如何？

So we will make that work depending on the departure of the customer.

因此，我們將根據客戶的離開情況進行這項工作。

And then second, for us, it's very important that we're, of course, delivering the differentiating capabilities.

其次，對我們來說，提供差異化功能當然非常重要。

And next year, the public cloud version will have 80% of the functionality, what today, our on-premise version has, this is significant.

明年，公共雲版本將擁有 80% 的功能，而今天，我們的本地版本擁有的功能，這很重要。

And we have delivered a new configuration where you can change processes on the fly, we infuse AI.

我們提供了一種新配置，您可以在其中即時更改流程，我們注入了 AI。

And just to give you an example because there's so much talk about the value of S/4.

只是舉個例子，因為關於 S/4 的價值的討論太多了。

Just last week, I had an automotive customer of SAP and he said, Christian, because of the move to S/4 and running on HANA, we actually could optimize our inventory and have savings of over EUR 200 million because now suddenly, we can change our inventory and track it real-time and can adjust it based on the demand, what we are seeing.

就在上週，我有一個 SAP 的汽車客戶，他說，克里斯蒂安，因為遷移到 S/4 並在 HANA 上運行，我們實際上可以優化我們的庫存並節省超過 2 億歐元，因為現在突然之間，我們可以更改我們的庫存並實時跟踪它，並且可以根據我們所看到的需求進行調整。

And especially in times like these, where you have such dynamic markets that is a huge, huge value for us.

尤其是在這樣的時代，你擁有如此充滿活力的市場，這對我們來說具有巨大的價值。

And this is something what we will going to push further and with the new strategy, we're going to invest further in innovation.

這是我們將進一步推動的事情，並且通過新戰略，我們將進一步投資於創新。

We invest further in R&D because this is the way to go.

我們進一步投資於研發，因為這是要走的路。

This is what our customers want.

這就是我們的客戶想要的。

And just to be precise.

準確地說。

So currently, we have close to 3,000 S/4 cloud customers.

所以目前，我們有近 3,000 個 S/4 雲客戶。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Alex Zukin from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Alex Zukin。

So just a quick one for me.

所以對我來說只是一個快速的。

Can you talk to how much of the delay in the spend that you're seeing or in the larger sales cycle is due to macro versus evaluating some of your new cloud solutions?

你能談談你看到的支出延遲或更大的銷售週期中有多少是由於宏觀而不是評估你的一些新雲解決方案造成的？

And if you think about the 2025 vision, approximately what percentage of customers do you expect to shift over the next kind of 2 to 3 years?

如果您考慮 2025 年的願景，您預計在接下來的 2 到 3 年內大約有多少百分比的客戶會轉移？

Or is there a late-cycle accelerated proportion of customers that are going to shift over?

或者是否有將要轉移的客戶的後期加速比例？

Thanks for the question, Alex.

謝謝你的問題，亞歷克斯。

I'll take the first part.

我先講第一部分。

In terms of the delay that we've described, I would say it is less about the evaluation process and more about the uncertainty of the conditions.

就我們所描述的延遲而言，我想說的不是評估過程，而是條件的不確定性。

At the start of the COVID process, we were in the fortunate position to be able to pivot our sales force to a virtual engagement of our customer base.

在 COVID 流程開始時，我們處於幸運的位置，能夠將我們的銷售團隊轉向與我們的客戶群進行虛擬互動。

We have had in operation for a number of years, a very strong digital selling motion in our commercial sales organization, and we were able to extend the use of those tools and techniques right across the entirety of our sales team.

我們已經運營了很多年，在我們的商業銷售組織中開展了非常強大的數字銷售活動，我們能夠將這些工具和技術的使用擴展到整個銷售團隊。

So we still managed to maintain a high level of engagement with our customers albeit that we probably haven't met many customers physically in the last 7 months.

因此，儘管在過去 7 個月中我們可能沒有見到很多客戶，但我們仍然設法與客戶保持高水平的互動。

Therefore, the delays tend to be delayed around uncertainty in the business model, uncertainty in the business world and uncertainty, I think, relative to the industry that the customer operates in much more than to the evaluation process, which is proceeding as paranym, albeit virtually.

因此，延遲往往會因商業模式的不確定性、商業世界的不確定性和不確定性而延遲，我認為，相對於客戶經營的行業，而不是評估過程，評估過程是作為副詞進行的，儘管幾乎。

And to your second part of the question, I mean we will, of course, give customers choice also in the future, but COVID will be (inaudible).

對於問題的第二部分，我的意思是，我們當然也會在未來為客戶提供選擇，但 COVID 會（聽不清）。

And it really depends on the departure point of the customer.

這實際上取決於客戶的出發點。

Look, when you -- we have customers, midsized services industry they celebrate go-lives with S/4HANA cloud in 20 days, that's possible, that's absolutely possible.

看，當你——我們有客戶時，中型服務行業他們慶祝 S/4HANA 雲在 20 天內上線，這是可能的，這是絕對可能的。

We have large enterprise customers.

我們有大型企業客戶。

They are now shifting the workloads to the cloud.

他們現在正在將工作負載轉移到雲端。

But of course, for them, it takes more time to redesign the processes, to come to a standard, to move the modifications out of the ERP.

但當然，對他們來說，重新設計流程、制定標準、將修改移出 ERP 需要更多時間。

So this will now happen at an accelerated pace.

因此，這現在將以更快的速度發生。

But every customer will move with its own speed.

但是每個客戶都會以自己的速度移動。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

And maybe [just] little bit.

也許 [只是] 一點點。

It's -- yes, I just -- I wanted to ask, is there a good -- like what's the right KPI for us to think about the if you would point us to give investors comfort in kind of that transition versus customers moving to a competitor, defecting to a competitor?

這是 - 是的，我只是 - 我想問，是否有一個好的 - 比如我們考慮的正確 KPI 是什麼，如果你會指出我們讓投資者對這種轉變感到安慰，而不是客戶轉向競爭對手，投奔競爭對手？

What's the right KPI to look at for us during this transition point around that cloud revenue on this?

在這個圍繞雲收入的過渡點期間，我們應該關注的正確 KPI 是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

In my point of view, it's really the number of migrated customers.

在我看來，這實際上是遷移客戶的數量。

As you know, we have slightly more than 30,000 classic ERP customers, not systems, we have way more systems.

如您所知，我們有 30,000 多個經典 ERP 客戶，而不是系統，我們有更多的系統。

But in terms of just customer count, that's what we have, and we have 15,000 customers for S/4HANA out there, as I said, close to 3,000 of them in the cloud.

但就客戶數量而言，這就是我們所擁有的，正如我所說，我們有 15,000 個 S/4HANA 客戶，其中近 3,000 個在雲端。

So that means another 12,000, basically that have licensed on-premise.

所以這意味著另外 12,000 個，基本上已經獲得了內部許可。

And in the next couple of years, we want to move many thousands of those customers.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們希望轉移成千上萬的客戶。

And then, of course, also net new customers to our core ERP cloud solutions.

然後，當然也為我們的核心 ERP 雲解決方案吸引了新客戶。

And therefore, we intend to give you in the future, absolutely regular recurring updates as part of the earnings process on those numbers.

因此，我們打算在未來為您提供絕對定期的定期更新，作為這些數字收益過程的一部分。

And certainly, the progress that we have achieved there, where we will now break out between the different deployment forms that should give you the confidence that we are arriving fully in the cloud come 2025.

當然，我們在那裡取得的進展，我們現在將在不同的部署形式之間進行突破，這應該讓您相信我們將在 2025 年完全進入雲端。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

The next question comes from Charlie Brennan from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Charlie Brennan。

I'm going to go with 2 as well, if that's possible.

如果可能的話，我也會選擇 2。

Firstly, just a clarification on your cash flow comments.

首先，請澄清一下您的現金流量評論。

I'm surprised you didn't commit to EUR 8 billion of free cash flow given that the variables of Qualtrics and CapEx should be a net tailwind.

我很驚訝你沒有承諾 80 億歐元的自由現金流，因為 Qualtrics 和 CapEx 的變量應該是一個淨順風。

Are there any other variables we should be considering, for instance, is there any chance of another restructuring program as you come to terms some scale of the change over the next couple of years?

是否有任何其他變量我們應該考慮，例如，當你在未來幾年內達成一定規模的變化時，是否有可能進行另一項重組計劃？

And then secondly, on a separate product-related issue, how important is owning the platform layer of the stack and the strategy?

其次，在一個單獨的產品相關問題上，擁有堆棧的平台層和戰略有多重要？

And to what extent do you think you've given up Mindshare to Microsoft and Google?

您認為您在多大程度上將 Mindshare 放棄給了微軟和谷歌？

And how hard is it going to be to claw back that Mindshare with customers?

收回客戶的 Mindshare 有多難？

Yes.

是的。

So first of all, on the cash flow side, you're absolutely right.

所以首先，在現金流方面，你是絕對正確的。

Of course, we will have benefits from the Qualtrics IPO.

當然，我們將從 Qualtrics IPO 中獲益。

And of course, we also continue to have benefits, as you have seen in the significantly reduced levels of CapEx that we had in the last 3 years from our collaboration with the hyperscalers.

當然，我們也繼續受益，正如您在過去 3 年中與超大規模企業合作顯著降低的資本支出水平所看到的那樣。

But that being said, still the source of free cash flow on the operating cash flow side is not entirely decoupled from the level of profit that we can drive as a company and as we are achieving that level of profit, basically with a 2-year shift in 2025 for our ambition that we have put out there.

但話雖如此，經營現金流方面的自由現金流來源仍未完全與我們作為一家公司可以推動的利潤水平脫鉤，而且我們正在實現這一利潤水平，基本上是 2 年到 2025 年實現我們在那裡提出的雄心壯志。

That's when also, I absolutely would expect that we are able to drive for those EUR 8 billion free cash flow.

那時，我絕對希望我們能夠推動 80 億歐元的自由現金流。

In the meantime, I very much believe that we actually can do better or else be equal on -- in terms of the cash flow generation because we have increased our cash inflow efficiency, our cash collection effectiveness and our working capital management.

與此同時，我非常相信我們實際上可以做得更好，或者在產生現金流方面保持平等，因為我們提高了現金流入效率、現金回收效率和營運資金管理。

However, that will not be able to fully equalize the lower profit levels that we are now anticipating in the next few years before that accelerates back again.

然而，這將無法完全平衡我們現在預期的未來幾年較低的利潤水平，然後才會再次加速。

And perhaps on the platform side, Christian?

也許在平台方面，Christian？

Happy to take it, Luka.

很高興接受它，盧卡。

I mean this is a very valid question.

我的意思是這是一個非常有效的問題。

And the platform, the business platform definitely needs to be owned by SAP and now moving our cloud applications over to this platform by following the integration issue by making sure that every of our application, is sharing the same data model, is showing the same authorization and workflow service.

平台，業務平台肯定需要由 SAP 所有，現在通過集成問題將我們的雲應用程序轉移到這個平台，確保我們的每個應用程序共享相同的數據模型，顯示相同的授權和工作流服務。

That's actually will also make sure that the platform will just become a natural part of every sell we are doing going forward.

這實際上也將確保該平台將成為我們未來進行的每一次銷售的自然組成部分。

That's not anymore a stand-alone platform, that's our business transformation platform, let's call it like that, where we then also want to shift the ecosystem to.

那不再是一個獨立的平台，那是我們的業務轉型平台，我們就這樣稱呼它，然後我們也想將生態系統轉移到那裡。

I mean, today, a lot of our SI partners are building still extensions in the on-premise world.

我的意思是，今天，我們的許多 SI 合作夥伴仍在內部部署世界中構建擴展。

We really now ask them and also incentivize them to China to move with us to the cloud and build the extensions on the platform because now they can do it also in a much more seamless way.

我們現在真的要求並激勵他們到中國與我們一起遷移到雲端並在平台上構建擴展，因為現在他們也可以以更加無縫的方式做到這一點。

Yes, the platform is of -- has the highest importance.

是的，該平台具有最重要的意義。

And again, with the platform then comes all -- comes also SAP HANA.

再一次，隨著平台的出現，一切都來了——SAP HANA 也來了。

And underneath, we give customers chance.

在下面，我們給客戶機會。

There, they can either choose a hyperscaler infrastructure, they can choose the SAP infrastructure that was already there in the past, and that has to be proven the right strategy.

在那裡，他們可以選擇超大規模基礎設施，也可以選擇過去已經存在的 SAP 基礎設施，並且必須證明這是正確的策略。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Kirk Materne from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Kirk Materne。

If I could sneak in 2, I'll try there as well.

如果我能潛入 2，我也會去那裡試試。

I guess, just to be very clear, Luka, on the cloud revenue adjustments, outside of currency, is really that from a business perspective, just simply Concur for the next year, meaning it sounds like Qualtrics had a good quarter.

我想，要非常清楚，盧卡，在貨幣之外的雲收入調整，真的是從商業角度來看，只是明年的同意，這意味著聽起來 Qualtrics 有一個很好的季度。

The other parts of the cloud business seem to be going well.

雲業務的其他部分似乎進展順利。

Is there any other downshift, I mean, Concur, it makes sense while you're expecting a more slow rebound?

還有其他降檔嗎，我的意思是，同意，當你期待更慢的反彈時，這是有道理的嗎？

But I just want to double check on that.

但我只想仔細檢查一下。

And then I guess maybe for Adaire and/or Christian, the question is going to come up a lot is, why are you all seeing delays when a lot of other software companies are frankly starting to see things pick back up?

然後我想也許對於 Adaire 和/或 Christian 來說，問題會經常出現，為什麼當許多其他軟件公司坦率地開始看到事情好轉時你們都看到延遲？

Is it the mix of your business around more impacted industries?

它是您的業務圍繞受影響較大的行業的組合嗎？

Is it -- as you, I think, Adaire mentioned bigger ERP projects just simply getting chopped up into smaller deals or having to rethink that?

是——我想，正如你所說，Adaire 提到了更大的 ERP 項目只是簡單地被分割成更小的交易或者不得不重新考慮嗎？

I think the big question I've got from investors today is, why are you all sort of seeing this whereas at least over the last month or 2, we haven't seen it.

我認為我今天從投資者那裡得到的一個大問題是，為什麼你們都看到了這一點，而至少在過去一兩個月裡，我們還沒有看到它。

Perhaps everything just kind of came to ahead in September.

也許一切都在 9 月提前到來了。

But if you could discuss it a little bit, I think it would be helpful.

但如果你能稍微討論一下，我認為這會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Let me first start.

讓我先開始。

So first of all, it's not only Concur.

所以首先，它不僅僅是 Concur。

What we are seeing in terms of impact for the full year.

我們在全年的影響方面看到了什麼。

We're not talking about next year yet, by the way.

順便說一句，我們還沒有談論明年。

So just to make sure that we are talking about 2020.

所以只是為了確保我們談論的是 2020 年。

But Concur is about half the impact that we are seeing, another quarter is the rest of intelligence spend.

但 Concur 大約是我們所看到影響的一半，另外四分之一是其餘的情報支出。

You probably have seen that in our segment reporting, we are showing that Concur is down in the quarter by 11% and that is a business that otherwise would be expected to grow somewhere in the teens, and that is, of course, all due to COVID.

您可能已經在我們的細分報告中看到，我們顯示 Concur 在本季度下降了 11%，這是一項原本預計會在十幾歲左右增長的業務，當然，這都是由於冠狀病毒。

But it's also the case that transactional revenues in Ariba, for example, are not as high as we would have expected for the same reasons.

但是，出於同樣的原因，例如 Ariba 的交易收入也沒有我們預期的那麼高。

I mean due to COVID, a lot of companies are cutting back on spend.

我的意思是，由於 COVID，許多公司都在削減開支。

And if you have lower spend and, of course, also a spend network like Ariba is showing less variable expenses.

如果你的支出較低，當然還有像 Ariba 這樣的支出網絡，那麼可變支出就會減少。

It's still growing.

它仍在增長。

That's the difference to Concur.

這就是 Concur 的不同之處。

But you have seen that intelligent spend overall in the quarter was down by 3 percentage points.

但您已經看到本季度整體智能支出下降了 3 個百分點。

And that, of course, means that also Ariba is down to a lower level than what otherwise would have been the case.

當然，這也意味著 Ariba 的水平低於其他情況下的水平。

And then the rest of the last quarter is really a slight reductions in renewal rates or new cloud bookings across the entire rest of the spectrum versus the levels that we would have targeted and planned for in a normal pre-COVID, business-as-usual scenario.

然後，在上個季度的剩餘時間裡，整個剩餘範圍內的續訂率或新雲預訂實際上略有下降，而我們在正常的 COVID 之前、一切照舊的情況下所設定的目標和計划水平設想。

Having said that, however, that's something that we had planned for.

然而，話雖如此，這是我們計劃好的事情。

The big shift is that on the transactional revenues.

最大的轉變是交易收入。

We had originally anticipated a recovery in the second half year, which we are now not planning for anymore.

我們原本預計下半年會復蘇，現在我們不再計劃了。

Yes.

是的。

And then I mentioned already the growth rate we are seeing in our Software-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service business.

然後我已經提到了我們在軟件即服務和平台即服務業務中看到的增長率。

And with 26%, I would say we are definitely also lying in the upper end also compared to competition.

26%，我想說的是，與競爭相比，我們肯定也處於高端。

So this business developed under these circumstances extremely well.

所以這個業務在這種情況下發展得非常好。

And there is, of course, also high confidence that for the next year that we will see similar growth.

當然，我們也很有信心在明年看到類似的增長。

And then, of course, also, we are talking about an acceleration latest in the second half year of 2021.

然後，當然，我們也在談論最近在 2021 年下半年的加速。

As -- when we talk supply chain, when we talk experience management, when we talk finance, changing, license models for our customers selling subscription, selling pay-as-you-go, these are all solutions, which are highly relevant for our customers.

正如——當我們談論供應鏈、體驗管理、金融、改變、為我們的客戶銷售訂閱、銷售現收現付的許可模式時，這些都是與我們高度相關的解決方案顧客。

So yes, there is a high confidence that we will definitely also see a reacceleration then next year.

所以，是的，我們有很高的信心，明年我們肯定也會看到重新加速。

And perhaps to close this out, it works both ways.

也許為了解決這個問題，它是雙向的。

While in a classic subscription model, the slowdown in revenues due to such a crisis situation, of course, is happening at a slower pace.

在經典的訂閱模式中，由於這種危機情況導致的收入放緩當然會以較慢的速度發生。

But on the other hand side, to accelerate a subscription business also takes its time because, first, you need to go through the selling, then the installation, and then you start to recognize revenues.

但另一方面，加速訂閱業務也需要時間，因為首先你需要經歷銷售，然後是安裝，然後你才開始確認收入。

In a business network model that is transaction volume-based like with Concur and Ariba both happens faster.

在像 Concur 和 Ariba 這樣基於交易量的業務網絡模型中，兩者都發生得更快。

So the downturn happens faster, but also once the business picks up again and the spend increases and travel is happening again, then of course, the variable revenues also start to kick in immediately.

因此，經濟衰退發生得更快，而且一旦業務再次回升，支出增加，旅行再次發生，那麼當然，可變收入也會立即開始發揮作用。

And hence, that's why we assume that if the COVID restrictions are lifted, then as of the second half year, we will see actually a quite fast reacceleration back to normal levels.

因此，這就是為什麼我們假設如果取消 COVID 限制，那麼從下半年開始，我們實際上將看到相當快的重新加速回到正常水平。

And finally, maybe, Kirk, let me address the question around the delay.

最後，也許，柯克，讓我來解決有關延遲的問題。

So first of all, I think it's important to place this in the context of the overarching portfolio of SAP.

因此，首先，我認為將其置於 SAP 總體產品組合的背景下很重要。

So we have a very broad portfolio of products, which is something that, of course, continues to make us extremely relevant to our customers.

因此，我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合，這當然會繼續使我們與客戶極為相關。

In some of our pure-play SaaS solutions, we defined a program that we call Amplify which was a program focused on low upfront investments on deployment in days and weeks and very click value realization for our customer base.

在我們的一些純粹的 SaaS 解決方案中，我們定義了一個我們稱之為 Amplify 的程序，該程序專注於在數天和數週內部署的低前期投資以及為我們的客戶群實現非常點擊的價值。

And in those scenarios, we definitely saw some uptake of those solutions because the gap between speed and value was very, very small.

在那些場景中，我們確實看到了這些解決方案的一些採用，因為速度和價值之間的差距非常非常小。

And we saw over 110 new customers, over 1,100 deals under the auspices of that particular program.

在該特定計劃的支持下，我們看到了 110 多個新客戶，超過 1,100 筆交易。

Then when you look at the actual underpinning business transformation that is predicated on S/4 as a core.

然後，當您查看以 S/4 為核心的實際基礎業務轉型時。

I guess the first point of discussion with customers is around cost and managing and mitigating cost in the current environment.

我想與客戶討論的第一個要點是圍繞成本以及在當前環境中管理和降低成本。

And there are a series of activities that can be done to help manage that.

並且可以執行一系列活動來幫助管理它。

Then the second range of conversations is about the migration itself or about the journey to value.

然後第二個對話範圍是關於遷移本身或關於價值之旅。

And in the context of that, there are different departure points.

在此背景下，有不同的出發點。

Each of our customers, of course, has a very unique environment today, but then also different destination points.

當然，我們的每一位客戶今天都有非常獨特的環境，但也有不同的目的地。

And it is a matter of looking at that in a modular way so that over the lifetime of that transformation journey, you're delivering value all along the way in relation to the priorities that the customers have set.

這是一個以模塊化方式看待它的問題，以便在轉型之旅的整個生命週期中，您一直在提供與客戶設定的優先級相關的價值。

And I do think there was an element of timing in terms of the last month of Q3 and some of the changes that we saw in the resurgence of COVID at a point where we had transactions in close process.

而且我確實認為，就第三季度的最後一個月以及我們在關閉交易過程中看到的 COVID 捲土重來的一些變化而言，存在時間因素。

So I think a combination of those things we have different portfolios with different profiles of solution sets, long-term transformation becoming modular and then a little to do with the timing of our Q end.

所以我認為這些東西的組合我們有不同的投資組合和不同的解決方案集配置文件，長期轉型成為模塊化，然後與我們 Q 結束的時間有點關係。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

We'll now take our next question from Mark Moerdler from Bernstein Research.

我們現在將從伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Mark Moerdler 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

I have 2 parts to my question.

我的問題分為兩部分。

The first is, if the transactional headwind from COVID is expected to be over within the next year to 2, then how should we think about 2023 in the transactional business?

首先是，如果 COVID 的交易逆風預計將在明年到 2 年內結束，那麼我們應該如何看待交易業務的 2023 年？

Is there going to be a permanent delay on the transactional side that you're modeling in?

您正在建模的交易方面是否會出現永久性延遲？

Or should it bounce back equivalently?

還是應該等量反彈？

And then as a second question, for new sales, which used to create license, how big a step down are you now expecting in license sales, specifically through 2023, is basically, should we be figuring license sales are basically going away by 2023?

然後作為第二個問題，對於用於創建許可證的新銷售，您現在預計許可證銷售有多大下降，特別是到 2023 年，基本上，我們是否應該認為到 2023 年許可證銷售基本上會消失？

Yes.

是的。

Perhaps I'll start with the last one and Adaire, please augment this.

也許我會從最後一個開始，Adaire，請增加這個。

I mean licenses would not certainly go away by 2023.

我的意思是到 2023 年許可證肯定不會消失。

However, they will certainly continue to decline.

但是，它們肯定會繼續下降。

And I would estimate at a similar rate of what we are seeing now in 2020.

我估計 2020 年的增長率與我們現在看到的相似。

And on the transactional business side, I see no reason why in 2 years' time assuming that COVID is really past and behind us sometime next year that transactional revenues should not, by 2023, be back at the level that they were before in 2019 and grow from there as they have done in the past.

在交易業務方面，我認為沒有理由在 2 年的時間裡假設 COVID 真的已經過去並在明年某個時候落後於我們，到 2023 年，交易收入不應該回到 2019 年之前的水平，並且像過去一樣從那裡成長。

So...

所以...

All good.

都好。

So that makes this joint statement from Adaire and myself, then it must be true.

因此，阿黛爾和我的聯合聲明一定是真的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question, please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Chandra Sriraman.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chandra Sriraman。

A couple, if I may.

一對，如果可以的話。

So when I look at your 2025 guidance, if my calculations are correct, there's a mid-single-digit drop in maintenance revenues through 2025.

因此，當我查看您的 2025 年指導意見時，如果我的計算正確，到 2025 年維護收入將出現中等個位數的下降。

Now I just wanted to check if the cloud business will be profitable enough to compensate for this drop as we go beyond 2023 and how should we see the move or the substitution of maintenance with subscription beyond 2023.

現在我只想檢查雲業務是否有足夠的利潤來彌補 2023 年以後的下降，以及我們應該如何看待 2023 年以後的移動或以訂閱代替維護。

The second question is more of a clarification.

第二個問題更像是一個澄清。

Luka, you mentioned that these ERP customers will move to the SaaS/PaaS model.

Luka，你提到這些 ERP 客戶將轉向 SaaS/PaaS 模式。

So I was just wondering, would you continue selling the Infrastructure as a Service?

所以我只是想知道，您會繼續銷售基礎設施即服務嗎？

Or will these customers be migrated to the SaaS/PaaS model?

或者這些客戶會遷移到 SaaS/PaaS 模式嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So perhaps first with the question on maintenance versus cloud.

所以也許首先是關於維護與雲的問題。

I mean that is one of the reasons why we are now accelerating and planning to kind of complete the migration to a converged cloud infrastructure more quickly because that is giving us a step-up in the cloud efficiency.

我的意思是，這就是為什麼我們現在正在加速併計劃更快地完成向融合雲基礎架構的遷移的原因之一，因為這使我們能夠提高雲效率。

That on a gross margin level already is in striking distance with our software and support business and that is very positive because if you then assume from a long-term perspective that the cloud business has an ever-increasing share of renewal components that are commanding a lower commission rate than a net new sale actually on the operating margin level, the cloud will then quickly catch up with the efficiency levels of our on-premise business.

這在毛利率水平上已經與我們的軟件和支持業務相去甚遠，這是非常積極的，因為如果你從長期的角度假設雲業務在更新組件中所佔份額不斷增加，這些更新組件需要佣金率低於營業利潤率水平上的淨新銷售額，雲將很快趕上我們內部部署業務的效率水平。

You have actually seen a part of that already at work today.

您實際上已經看到其中的一部分已經在今天發揮作用。

But of course that impact will be significantly higher even once we have built such a high base cloud revenues.

但當然，即使我們建立瞭如此高的基礎雲收入，這種影響也會大得多。

And on the Infrastructure-as-a-Service piece, I think you will see over time that certainly a growing proportion of our existing enterprise cloud customers will move over to a more holistic SaaS offering that gives them the entire scope, including also subscription.

在基礎設施即服務方面，我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到越來越多的現有企業雲客戶將轉向更全面的 SaaS 產品，為他們提供整個範圍，包括訂閱。

We actually offer this to our customers in -- within the HANA Enterprise Cloud already today as an option.

實際上，我們今天已經在 HANA 企業雲中將其作為一個選項提供給我們的客戶。

But given our increased capabilities in the cloud that we're looking at, I think it will increase significantly now in attractiveness and will lead to more pure HANA enterprise cloud customers making the move over.

但鑑於我們正在關注的雲中功能的增強，我認為它現在的吸引力將顯著增加，並將導致更多純粹的 HANA 企業雲客戶轉向。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Julian Serafini from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Julian Serafini。

I have 2 questions.

我有兩個問題。

I think number one is on Luka, I believe you mentioned the cloud uplift multiplier that was around 2x maintenance.

我認為第一是 Luka，我相信你提到了大約 2 倍維護的雲提升乘數。

Can you confirm that, so that would imply roughly a 5-year crossover on the revenue side, considering all things equal that when a cloud contract would be revenue accretive for SAP?

您能否確認這一點，這意味著在收入方面大約有 5 年的交叉，考慮到雲合同何時會為 SAP 帶來收入增長的所有條件都相同？

And then the second question is on sales compensation, probably for Adaire.

然後第二個問題是關於銷售補償，可能是針對阿黛爾的。

Will there be changes to sales compensation going forward and I guess, to emphasize more cloud products away from the license and maintenance model?

未來銷售補償是否會發生變化，我想，強調更多雲產品而不是許可證和維護模型？

I can quickly go first.

我可以快點先走。

So it's actually a bit more than twice the support revenue.

所以它實際上是支持收入的兩倍多一點。

If you apply a multiplier or actually if you apply a 0.45 multiplier to a EUR 1 million license contract, plus 20% support, that would translate into a 450,000 subscription at equal value, so slightly more than twice.

如果你應用乘數，或者實際上如果你對 100 萬歐元的許可合同應用 0.45 的乘數，加上 20% 的支持，這將轉化為 450,000 等值的訂閱，所以略多於兩倍。

And Julian, thank you for the question.

朱利安，謝謝你提出這個問題。

Sales compensation is certainly one lever that facilitates change and transformation.

銷售薪酬無疑是促進變革和轉型的一個槓桿。

This year, as Christian mentioned in his opening remarks, we've brought together all of the customer-facing resources of SAP into a single organizational unit that includes not just sales, but also all of the services resources of the company, together with all of the customer facing, post-sales support resources.

今年，正如 Christian 在開場白中提到的那樣，我們將 SAP 所有面向客戶的資源整合到一個組織單元中，不僅包括銷售，還包括公司的所有服務資源，以及所有面向客戶的售後支持資源。

We underpinned this organizational change with an operating model that focuses not just on the landing or the bringing of a new customer into the SAP family.

我們通過一種運營模式支持這一組織變革，該模式不僅關注新客戶的登陸或將其引入 SAP 系列。

But also focuses very much on the adoption and the consumption of SAP solutions in order to drive business outcome and business value for our customers.

但也非常關注 SAP 解決方案的採用和使用，以便為我們的客戶推動業務成果和業務價值。

Therefore, in addition to this organizational change, in addition to this new operating model, in addition to the appropriate management and governance over the top of that, we will, of course, look at our compensation plans in order to ensure that they're aligned with that strategy.

因此，除了這種組織變革之外，除了這種新的運營模式之外，除了適當的管理和治理之外，我們當然會審視我們的薪酬計劃，以確保它們是符合該戰略。

And as I mentioned, that strategy focuses as much on the adoption and the consumption of our software as it does on the initial transaction with our customer base.

正如我所提到的，該策略既關注我們軟件的採用和消費，也關注與我們客戶群的初始交易。

I also get a sense that the question was around how we would be addressing or directing our sales force's efforts around the different elements of the portfolio.

我還感覺到，問題在於我們將如何解決或指導我們的銷售團隊圍繞產品組合的不同元素開展工作。

I think it's important, again, to emphasize that we have always been predicated on choice for our customers, and we will continue to be predicated on choice.

我認為再次強調我們一直以客戶的選擇為基礎是很重要的，我們將繼續以選擇為基礎。

There are absolutely some customers that for a variety of reasons would want to remain in an on-premise world.

出於各種原因，絕對有一些客戶希望留在本地環境中。

However, there is no doubt that the vast majority of our customers are orientated towards this cloud migration, and our compensation will take that into consideration.

但是，毫無疑問，我們的絕大多數客戶都傾向於這種雲遷移，我們的薪酬也會考慮到這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let's take the next question please.

請讓我們回答下一個問題。

Our next questions comes from Neil Steer from Redburn Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn Partners 的 Neil Steer。

I've got a couple, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有一對。

Firstly, Luka, did you confirm in your response to a previous question that we should think modeling the maintenance revenues declining mid-single-digit levels by the time we get beyond 2023?

首先，Luka，你在回答之前的問題時是否確認我們應該考慮對 2023 年以後的維護收入下降中個位數水平進行建模？

Was that what you seem to be confirming or not?

那是你似乎要確認的嗎？

Yes, a mid-single-digit negative decline CAGR, given the accelerated transformation to the cloud is directionally correct.

是的，考慮到向雲的加速轉型是方向正確的，中等個位數的負複合年增長率是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just looking at the slides, I think I understand the revenue trajectory for cloud, obviously, but you seem to reference in the slide deck that you're going to invest in industry cloud functionality, other than the industry cloud functionality, where are, specifically the other investments coming through that hit the profitability so much in '21 and '22?

然後只看幻燈片，我想我顯然了解雲的收入軌跡，但你似乎在幻燈片中提到你將投資於行業雲功能，而不是行業雲功能，在哪裡，特別是通過其他投資在 21 年和 22 年對盈利能力造成如此大的影響？

Well, on the '21 and '22 thing, that is really related to planned infrastructure harmonization investment.

那麼，在 21 和 22 年的事情上，這確實與計劃中的基礎設施協調投資有關。

So we are migrating customers that are still sitting on the legacy infrastructures of some of our -- in particular, acquired cloud solutions, but also some of our own-developed solutions to our converged cloud.

因此，我們正在將仍然坐在我們的一些遺留基礎設施上的客戶——特別是收購的雲解決方案，以及我們自己開發的一些解決方案遷移到我們的融合雲中。

And that has infrastructure investments that has some, as I said, development efforts attached to optimize the performance of those solutions on the new infrastructure.

正如我所說，基礎設施投資有一些附加的開發工作，以優化這些解決方案在新基礎設施上的性能。

And of course, it also includes the pure migration cost for our customers.

當然，它還包括我們客戶的純遷移成本。

So that has nothing to do with investments that we are doing as part of our portfolio process on the R&D side to build out new organic solutions, which we are nevertheless doing as well, and that's industry cloud, but it's also other areas of the portfolio.

因此，這與我們在研發方面作為我們投資組合流程的一部分所做的投資無關，以構建新的有機解決方案，我們仍然在做，這是行業雲，但它也是投資組合的其他領域.

We're investing significantly also in our business technology platform.

我們還在我們的業務技術平台上進行了大量投資。

And of course, we continue to invest in those solutions where we clearly have a leading position in the market and want to retain it as well.

當然，我們會繼續投資那些我們在市場上明顯處於領先地位並希望保持領先地位的解決方案。

Okay.

好的。

So sorry to ask a final question.

很抱歉問最後一個問題。

But in the past, when you talked about the converged cloud infrastructure, you've obviously talked about migrating over SuccessFactors, which I think is supposed to be done by the first half of last year.

但在過去，當你談到融合雲基礎設施時，你顯然談到了通過 SuccessFactors 進行遷移，我認為這應該在去年上半年完成。

If you look at the proportion of subscribers or users on the legacy line of business or solutions, what in total of those have been migrated over to converged cloud infrastructure?

如果您查看傳統業務線或解決方案中訂閱者或用戶的比例，那麼總共有多少已遷移到融合雲基礎設施？

And how much of those legacy line of business users need to move over to the new -- to the cloud infrastructure now?

那些遺留的業務線用戶中有多少現在需要遷移到新的雲基礎架構？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for raising this question because I think it allows me to clarify something.

所以感謝你提出這個問題，因為我認為它可以讓我澄清一些事情。

The migrations that we have been talking about SuccessFactors and also Ariba, they were database migrations.

我們一直在談論 SuccessFactors 和 Ariba 的遷移，它們是數據庫遷移。

We were migrating the underlying third-party database to HANA.

我們正在將底層第三方數據庫遷移到 HANA。

And that was giving us already significant benefits, and you see them in the cloud gross margin to date.

這已經給我們帶來了顯著的好處，你可以在迄今為止的雲毛利率中看到它們。

What we have also done is we have made sure that all of our core solutions run on one or more hyperscalers and on our converged cloud infrastructure.

我們還做的是確保我們所有的核心解決方案都在一個或多個超大規模器以及我們的融合雲基礎設施上運行。

What we have not done yet is migrating all of the existing customers that are sitting on the previous legacy infrastructures over to the new one.

我們還沒有做的是將所有坐在以前遺留基礎設施上的現有客戶遷移到新基礎設施上。

And that is what we are now giving a strong push and what we are looking to accelerate forward.

這就是我們現在大力推動的，也是我們希望加速前進的。

And once we have accomplished this, we can retire our legacy platforms, and we have various other benefits in terms of automation that we can leverage for greater efficiencies.

一旦我們完成了這一點，我們就可以淘汰我們的遺留平台，並且我們在自動化方面擁有各種其他優勢，我們可以利用這些優勢來提高效率。

But the database migration, that was what we were talking about in the past.

但是數據庫遷移，那是我們過去談論的話題。

And indeed, this has been accomplished already with the current positive benefits for cloud margins that we are seeing already in our actual current numbers.

事實上，這已經實現了，我們已經在實際當前數字中看到了當前對雲利潤率的積極好處。

And so we can (inaudible) roughly 100% still, in terms of users, are still on their existing legacy platforms today, is that correct?

因此，就用戶而言，我們仍然可以（聽不清）大約 100% 仍然使用他們現有的遺留平台，對嗎？

No, that's not right because we have already, since some time started to onboard new customers on those converged cloud landscapes, but it's correct that still a majority of the existing customers are on those legacy platforms and that's what we are going to move over quickly now.

不，那是不對的，因為我們已經開始在這些融合的雲環境中吸引新客戶，但是大多數現有客戶仍然在那些遺留平台上是正確的，這就是我們將要快速轉移的現在。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Looking at the time, I think we have time for one final question.

看看時間，我想我們還有時間討論最後一個問題。

We'll now take our last question from Patrick Walravens from JMP.

我們現在將接受來自 JMP 的 Patrick Walravens 的最後一個問題。

And maybe this is a good way to wrap it up.

也許這是總結的好方法。

So Christian, thank you for all the commentary in detail today.

所以克里斯蒂安，謝謝你今天所有的詳細評論。

Given the stock drop, which I think is the biggest in quite a while.

考慮到股票下跌，我認為這是相當長一段時間以來最大的一次。

If there's one key message you'd like to convey to your investors here, what would that be?

如果您想在這裡向您的投資者傳達一個關鍵信息，那會是什麼？

So thanks a lot for that question.

非常感謝這個問題。

And indeed, of course, coming from the stock price, you see that we actually made today a decision which is actually, it's a response to the needs of our customers.

事實上，當然，從股價來看，你看到我們今天實際上做出了一個決定，實際上，這是對我們客戶需求的回應。

And look, as the CEO of SAP, I cannot hold on to a financial midterm ambition, which is actually, against the needs of our customers.

而且，作為 SAP 的首席執行官，我無法堅持財務中期目標，這實際上違背了我們客戶的需求。

When they want to move and they want to transform, and they want to see more organic innovation from SAP, this is, for me, on the long term, the right thing to do for SAP, and this is actually my top priority as the CEO of this company, and this is why we are doing this change.

當他們想要遷移和轉型時，他們希望看到 SAP 的更多有機創新，對我來說，從長遠來看，這是為 SAP 做的正確事情，這實際上是我作為 SAP 的首要任務這家公司的首席執行官，這就是我們進行此更改的原因。

And one thing for sure, because also related to the last question, we are not getting sluggish on our commitment to drive profitable growth in the future.

可以肯定的是，因為也與最後一個問題相關，我們在推動未來盈利增長的承諾方面並沒有遲緩。

I mean all the impacts you're now seeing is weather-related macroeconomic or you see the revenue mix effect coming through.

我的意思是你現在看到的所有影響都是與天氣相關的宏觀經濟，或者你看到收入組合效應正在顯現。

And -- but on the other productivity parameter, no matter if it's go-to-market related, G&A-related, we are not getting sluggish.

而且 - 但在其他生產力參數上，無論它是否與上市相關，與 G＆A 相關，我們都不會變得遲鈍。

We will, of course, also have a high focus on productivity.

當然，我們也會高度關註生產力。

And on the investment side, on the cloud operations, I mean, when you are now doing this massive shift and already tripling your cloud revenues towards 2025, you don't want to feed your money into some legacy cloud infrastructure.

在投資方面，在雲運營方面，我的意思是，當你現在正在進行這種大規模轉變並且到 2025 年你的雲收入已經增加了兩倍時，你不想將你的錢投入到一些遺留的雲基礎設施中。

This is why we want to do our homework now and come back to double-digit growth on operating profit from 2023 onwards on because, again, I don't want to feed money into a legacy infrastructure.

這就是為什麼我們現在要做好功課，從 2023 年開始營業利潤恢復兩位數增長，因為我不想再把錢投入到遺留基礎設施中。

This is why we are doing this in combination.

這就是為什麼我們要聯合起來做這件事。

And as I said, finally, to wrap it up, we are doing it for our customers.

正如我所說，最後，總結一下，我們正在為我們的客戶做這件事。

Thank you, Pat, for your last question.

帕特，謝謝你提出的最後一個問題。

This concludes our earnings call for today.

我們今天的財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for joining, and you can now disconnect.

感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連接了。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Thank you, take care.

謝謝，保重。