Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2009 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ryanair full-year results conference call.

(Operator Instructions).

Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to hand over to your chairperson, Michael O'Leary.

Good afternoon everybody.

You are very welcome.

I am here in London.

I am joined by Howard Millar.

And we have other colleagues on the line, Neil Sorahan and Tracy Alloway.

Michael Cawley is on a flight, I think, heading for the States so he won't be joining us today.

I am going to take you through the headlines of the results that are powered through the MD&A and then we will open it up for questions and answers, as you wish.

As you have seen today, all of the results and the investor slide presentation is on the website, www.Ryanair.com.

We have announced full-year profit of EUR150 million -- EUR105 million after tax.

Fares have fallen 8% and traffic has grown 15% to 59 million passengers.

I think these are a very strong set of results.

Despite the global recession and record high oil prices, our lowest fare/lowest cost model continued to deliver traffic growth and profitability, while many of our competitors are recording losses and cutting back traffic and capacity.

Highlights of the last year, after tax profits of EUR105 million.

Strong traffic growth, up 15% to 59 million.

18 net new aircraft.

The year end fleet was 101 -- 181 aircraft.

We have opened up six new bases during the financial year in Alghero in Sardinia, Birmingham in the UK, Bologna in Italy, Bournemouth in the UK, Cagliari in Sardinia, and Edinburgh in the UK.

In total we have opened up 223 new routes.

A number of major regulatory victories, including the CAA UK Competition Commission report which has recommended the breakup of the BAA airport monopoly.

We strongly support the sale of Gatwick and Stansted and the introduction of competition into the marketplace, and one of the Scottish airports as well.

Last December we won a momentous victory in the European Court to First Instance, which dismissed the European Commission's previous state aid finding on Brussels Charleroi case.

The European Court has confirmed that it was neither our cost base and Charleroi was neither state aid nor subsidies.

The good news is, apart from profitability, we continue to improve our customer service metrics.

I think again it is a very robust performance in a very difficult general economic backdrop.

But we are tremendously heartened by the fact that we, Ryanair, can record a profit of EUR105 million, or indeed any profit, at a time when we were the airline most exposed to high oil prices last year.

As you remember, we were largely unhedged.

Ancillary revenues grew by 23% to EUR598 million.

We have now achieved our target of 20 ancillaries delivering 20% of revenues, up from 18% last year.

And we continue to stimulate our ancillary revenue growth.

More recently we are in the middle of the trial of our onboard telephony.

We have 40 aircraft fitted.

Most of them based in Dublin, Rome, Pisa and Milan, and that rollout continues.

Fuel costs, which was the big bugbear for us last year rose by an extraordinary 59% or EUR466 million -- accounted for a total of 45% of our operating costs compared with 37% in fiscal '08.

We have taken advantage of the recent falls in jet fuel prices to, if you like, extend our hedging program for FY '10.

We now have 90% of the first three quarters put to bed at an average of $620 per tonne.

We have 5% of Q4 already done at just under $500 per tonne.

And over the coming weeks and months we are looking for opportunities to finish out that hedging program for the fourth quarter.

However, excluding fuel costs last year, our other operating costs fell by 3% on a per passenger basis.

In terms of the environment, most of our competitors are reporting material traffic and yield declines.

European air travel is increasingly dominated by four major airlines; three high fare ones, Air France, BA, Lufthansa, and one very large low fares airline, Ryanair.

I think March was a momentous month, where we finally overtook Lufthansa for the first time in terms of passenger numbers.

To the extent that we are now the number one European airline in terms of traffic and market capitalization, leading Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways squabbling for the minor positions.

Airport costs continue to lower.

We are besieged, I think is the appropriate verb, by airport both large (inaudible) to the airport and secondary airports, all aggressively competing against each other to try to persuade Ryanair to grow there.

We have given examples in the presentation -- in the slide presentation today showing, for example, in Spain the extraordinary collapse in traffic at the Spanish airports.

The extraordinary cutbacks in capacity by most of the Spanish Airlines operating to and from Spain, including other so-called low fares airlines like EasyJet, clickair and [Welling].

And Ryanair is the only airline delivering capacity growth and traffic growth in Spain in the current year.

The breakup of BAA monopoly -- airport monopoly has finally forced the welcome sale of Gatwick and Stansted in London, and we hope Edinburgh in Scotland.

We believe this will lead to the development of the growth of low-cost, efficient terminal facilities in the London area.

And we will see the development of additional airport capacity in London at more efficient cost and with more efficient facilities being designed.

And the sooner competition replaces the hopelessly incompetent regulatory regime here in the UK, overseen by Harry Bush and the CAA, the better.

We are continuing to campaign strongly for the repeal of travel taxes.

Tourist taxes have been uniquely unsuccessful in Europe in recent years and have precipitated large declines in air passenger traffic and tourism in the UK economy where they introduced APD some five or six years ago.

In Ireland at the moment we are suffering large passenger and tourism declines.

Most of it due to the, again, silly policy of introducing an airport -- an air travel and air passenger tax.

We are glad, and welcome the recent decisions by the Belgium and Dutch government to repeal their passenger taxes, and also by more recent moves by the Greek and Spanish government to lower airport charges -- in the case of Greece the regional airport charges.

In the case of Spain, they have introduced a deal for the -- any airline delivering growth at the [Ilena] Airport in the second half of 2009 over the second half of 2008 will receive 100% discount on airport charges.

We would like to see these governments not just introduce these short-term one-off measures, which will be of limited effect, but to rollout lower -- scrap passenger taxes and rollout lower airport charges generally over the longer term so that we can return -- or can return to stimulating traffic and tourism growth.

In terms of regulatory development, sadly in Ireland we continue to suffer under an equally incompetent aviation regulator, who in recent months has been criticized by the Irish government's own appeals panel for passive regulation.

We have called on him repeatedly to resign, but he is not even confident enough to be able to write his own resignation letter.

But again, we are calling for competing terminals at Dublin Airport, which allow competition to deliver lower cost and better facilities where the Irish aviation regulators hopelessly failed.

A very significant victory in the European Court of First Instance in December, which was the overturn of the Charleroi state aid decision by the European Commission.

We think that is leading to a much more competitive environment amongst Europe's regional and secondary airports trying to encourage Ryanair to select them for traffic and base growth.

The only other issue which I think we should comment on, is the write-down in the Aer Lingus investment.

We are a 29.8% shareholder in Aer Lingus, the Irish regional airline.

We have written that down in the year end to EUR97 million.

We have written it down out by, what, a total of just over EUR300 million.

The write-off in the last year is EUR220 million, writing it down to a share price of EUR0.59, which is where it was at our year end on 31 of March.

All I can say about Aer Lingus is sadly it continues to suffer declining traffic.

It is losing money.

It is rapidly burning through its cash -- the cash it generates from shareholders (inaudible) in 2006.

It seems to have a Board and management with no vision and no strategy for the future.

In marked contrast to the strategy we set out at the start of 2009, where if you remember our last offer, we promised to double the size of Aer Lingus, to increase its fleet, to grow it's short and long-haul basis, and to lower its air fares and costs.

Which we think would result in a return on our original investment in Aer Lingus.

Sadly the Board of Aer Lingus seems to have only one strategy, and that is to do the opposite of what Ryanair recommends, which is why their share price has collapsed from the EUR1.20 we offered back in January to something around EUR0.60 today.

We believe Aer Lingus should start -- and needs to start urgently on a new cost reduction program.

Sadly, they don't have a Chief Executive at the moment.

Equally sadly, the Chairman has gone off and commissioned some worldwide firm of headhunters to waste a couple of hundred thousand euros taking an indeterminate amount of time to find another manager.

It seems to be a vote of lack of confidence in the senior executives of Aer Lingus, but they don't seem to know where they're going.

If we could, I would have written down our stake in Aer Lingus to zero, but the accounting rules don't allow us to do that.

We are calling at the Friday's AGM of Aer Lingus for deep cuts in the bloated fees paid to the Aer Lingus nonexecutive Chairman and the Aer Lingus nonexecutive Directors, all of whom had been appointed by the government and the trade unions in Ireland.

Their Directors, the nonexecutive fees have increased fivefold in the last two years.

While the company -- while the Board has seen the share price collapse from over EUR2.40 to under EUR0.60.

We think that there is going to be cost cutting program in Aer Lingus, and there clearly needs to be one.

If they're going to compete with Ryanair, they need to start first with the kind of director fees.

But in order to -- whilst we propose two motions or two resolutions in that respect at the AGM, because we don't want to be seen to be trying to influence or control events -- clearly we can't with only 29.5% of the shares -- we have signed a proxy in favor of the Minister for Transport who himself last week called for cost cuts in Aer Lingus.

So we have signed a proxy in his favor, which gives him effectively a 55% majority at the AGM on these two issues.

We hope that the Minister will follow up with -- will follow through on his call for cost cuts and vote in favor of reducing the fat cat fees paid to Aer Lingus' Directors down to reasonable levels, and away from the excess of the bloated levels they have been at in recent years, which at least might give the Board and Chairman of Aer Lingus some degree of credibility or integrity in asking the workers and the unions to take cost cuts going forward.

We are surprised that the Board have rejected our call for cutting the Directors' fees.

To us they seem, we believe, to be out of touch and out of their league in terms of managing Aer Lingus forward.

But the decision on these kind of resolutions are now out of Ryanair's hands for next Friday.

It is essentially up to the Minister for Transport.

We hope he will not just talk about cost cuts, but actually do something about it.

In the meantime, and I hasten to add, Aer Lingus is just a sideshow for Ryanair.

Ireland is a very small part of our overall market.

And will continue to be a declining part of our overall market, since all of our aircraft and all of our growth is now taking place elsewhere in Europe, sadly because in Ireland we continue to suffer from high airport cost and its insanely stupid travel or tourist tax, where the Irish government then believes that they can incentivize or then stimulate tourism by taxing the very tourists it depends on.

The balance sheet continues to be one of the strongest in the industry.

We have EUR2.3 million in cash at the year end.

A tiny net debt position, something that we think will revert to strong, positive cash flows over the coming year or two as our capital expenditure tapers off as we run close to 2011 and 2012.

Overall in terms of outlook, in the next 12 months we expect to grow traffic by 15% to 67 million passengers.

We will benefit from significantly lower oil prices.

And our 5% reduction in nonoil operating cost will lower our total cost for the next 12 months by something north of EUR500 million.

We expect to give away at least half of that in lower scales fares and yields in order to maintain our own high load factors as we grow capacity at 15% in the next 12 months in the marketplace around Europe, where clearly the market is affected by deep recession and competitor -- with competitors withdrawing capacity and withdrawing from market.

We have very limited visibility on the years going forward.

We have been, I think, extremely conservative in our yield guidance today.

And I think that is the sensible place to be in.

The Q1 yields will obviously, with Easter in April and no Easter in the comparable April last year, be a little bit better than that.

But I think I would be very cautious and conservative about yields for the coming winter.

It could, if the recessionary environments continues, be a very difficult winter.

I think, however, like many other pricing leaders in their segments, like IKEA, McDonald's, [Liddle and Aldie], Ryanair will continue to grow very strongly.

We expect to double our profit over the next 12 months thanks to our cost reduction program, even if yields fall by 15% to 20%.

And if they fall by something less than that then that will be reflected in increasing profitability.

At a time when our competitors are suffering increased costs, we are uniquely reducing unit costs in the current year.

In this recessionary environment we intend to continue to offer Europe's consumers more competition, more choice and even better value.

And you'll see us continue to target cost reduction by moving to Web check-in -- 100% web check-in from 1 October, being very aggressive about reducing our airport charges, particularly at high cost monopoly airport like Dublin and London Stansted, where we believe and we will be pushing for the development of efficient airport facilities and far less marble palaces and shopping centers.

Because let's face it, what our passengers want is less dwell time at lower airport and lower fares, and we intend to deliver them for that.

Overall, again, I think so good news today.

Strong outlook in terms of doubling our profitability over the next 12 months.

And we haven't forgotten, and we remain determined, to deliver on our, if you like, our medium-term guidance, which is to double our traffic and profit between 2007 to 2012, which means getting to 90 million passengers and an EUR800 million after-tax profit sometime between now and 2012.

With that, I will hand you over to Howard to take us through briefly the MD&A.

For the purposes of the MD&A all figures and comments are by reference to the adjusted results, including(Sic-see press release) exceptional items.

There were two exceptional items the year ended March 31, 2009, amounting to a total of EUR274.1 million, consisting of a EUR222.5 million impairment of the Aer Lingus shareholdings, an accelerated depreciation charge of EUR51.6 million on aircraft to be disposed in the years 2009 and 2010.

Adjusted profit excluding exceptional items decreased by 78% or EUR105 million, in the year ended March 31, 2009, primarily due to a 59% increase in fuel costs.

Total operating revenues increased by 8% to EUR2.94 billion, lower than the 15% growth in passenger volumes, as average fares declined by 8% due to the absence of Easter in the year, weaker euro/sterling exchange rates, and aggressive fare promotion.

Ancillary revenues grew by 23% to EUR598.1 million, literally faster than the growth in passenger volumes.

Total revenue per passenger as a result decreased by 6%, while load factor was fractionally down by just under 1 point to 81% during the year.

Total operating expenses increased by 29% to EUR2.797 billion, primarily due to the increase in fuel prices, the higher level of activity and increased costs associated with growth of the airline.

Fuel, which represents 45% of total operating costs, compared to 37% in previous year, increased by 59% to EUR1.257 billion due to the increase in the price per gallon, and an increase in number of hours flown, offset by positive movement in the US dollar versus the euro exchange rate.

Unit costs, excluding fuel, fell by 3%, and including fuel costs they rose by 12%.

Operating margin fell by 15 points to 5%, whilst operating profit decreased by 74% to EUR144.2 million.

Net margin fell from 18% in March 31, 2008 to 4% in the financial year ended 31 of March 2009.

Adjusted earnings per share for the year was EUR7.10 cent compared to earnings per share of EUR31.80 cent in the year ended March 31, 2008.

On to the balance sheet growth.

Gross cash increased by EUR108.6 million to EUR2.278 billion.

The group generated cash from operating activities of EUR413.1 million, and a further EUR314.2 million was generated from the sale of 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft, which funded the higher fuel costs, a EUR46 million share buyback, and capital expenditure incurred during the year.

Capital expenditure of EUR702 million, largely consist of advanced aircraft payments for future aircraft deliveries and the delivery of new Boeing aircraft during the year.

Long-term debt, net of repayment, increased by EUR131.9 million during the year.

And the Group had net debt of EUR120.2 million at the year end compared to net debt of EUR96.9 million as of March 31, 2008.

We will hand you back to Michael to for questions.

Okay, we are going to open it up for the Q&A please.

(Operator Instructions).

Jim Parker.

Jim Parker, Raymond James.

I would like to know what proportion of your passengers currently are checking-in -- paying to check-in at a check-in desk?

At the moment we've got 40% of passengers paying airport check-in.

That would be a combination of people who want to check-in at airports, and those are people traveling with check-in bags.

We expect that to fall though precipitously over the next month or two, because on 20 of May we extended the Web check-in facility for passengers traveling on non-EU passports and also passengers traveling with bags.

So we would expect that to fall I imagine to something under 20% of passengers within the next month or two.

Now everybody, it even if you're traveling with bags, you can Web check-in, arrive at the airport, and all you need is the backdrop where you go to what would previously be the check-in desk.

The machine will scan your Web check-in barcode, and it automatically spits out a bag tag.

We take the bag from you there and then.

So you're going to charge -- on October 1 you're going to charge GBP5 or EUR5 for Web check-in, and then you check-in fee at the desk is going to some very high number.

(multiple speakers).

I am curious.

It is effectively -- the airport check-in fee at the moment, which is EUR10, is effectively going to disappear on 1 of October, because there won't be an airport check-in.

But that check-in fee -- remember, we are replacing that airport check-in feet of EUR10 with a Web check-in service fee of EUR5.

But that will only be paid by, again, about 60% of our passengers, about -- because if you're traveling on one of our three lower promotional fares, which are typically the (inaudible), the EUR5 are the free seats -- the EUR1 or the EUR5 fares, those fares include Web check-in.

So the Web check-in is free on the promotional fares.

If you want to avoid our Web check-in fee you just buy one of our promotional fares.

If you don't mind paying the Web check-in fee, or you want to travel on a flight that doesn't have a promotional fare, you will pay the Web check-in fee.

It appears that the Web check-in fee is essentially a fare increase.

I disagree.

Because the underlying fares will still be falling over the next 12 months.

Michael, it appears that you may be raising fares anyway.

No, no, no.

Let me ask you.

Hang on a second.

If you look to the guidance, average fares last year fell 8% to EUR40.

That included the airport check-in and the baggage fees.

We expect, and the guidance today is, whilst the airport check-in will disappear, including the Web check-in fee that the average -- that the airport or the -- we expect the average fare to fall by something between 15% to 20%, which would be a fall from EUR40 to something down around -- it could be as low as EUR32.

So the press will write this up as, oh, it is a hidden fare increase.

Nothing is hidden here.

The fares will fall over the next 12 months as we stimulate 15% more traffic growth.

Okay.

A question regarding your unit costs in the fourth quarter.

They appear to be up 5% year-to-year.

Am I missing something there?

Why are the costs up?

They were down 3% for the year, but up in the fourth quarter.

It is Howard.

We did talk about that.

We would be well ahead of the ball in terms of Q1 and Q2.

But as we have lower load factors across the winter, generally our unit cost performance is not as good.

But we are in line with where we said the full year would turn out at about 3%.

Duane has a question, I believe.

Just to follow-up there looking to fiscal '10, can you give us any sense for the unit cost reduction by quarter?

Is it greater in the near term?

I don't think we want to particularly to get into discussing quarter on quarter, but generally it is better across the summer when you have a higher load factor, and it is generally poorer across the winter.

But overall for the year you should be factoring into your model unit cost, excluding fuel, falling by 5%.

Do you have a CapEx and debt principal repayments for fiscal '10 please?

I certainly have CapEx.

CapEx -- and it will be a mixture obviously of operating leases and some [ex in], which is on-balance sheet debt.

Gross CapEx of about EUR1.2 billion.

I don't have the debt repayments, but we can come back to you separately on that.

John Mattimoe.

John Mattimoe, from Merrion in Dublin.

Just on the yield environment, clearly you're looking for the winter be more difficult than the summer.

And I was just wondering if the mix turns out that it is say minus 25%, 35% drop in yields in the winter, what would you imagine that will do for the competitive environment?

Are we likely to see increase failures for people who manage to survive $100 plus oil, or would we see maybe further early retirements of capacity, people canceling plane orders, consolidation or a mixture of everything?

I think generally speaking we would be very bearish on next winter.

Our focus is not on what impact will this have on competitors.

Our focus is we expect to be rolling.

We are taking a lot of aircraft deliveries next winter.

We will still be expanding capacity at a time when many other airlines will be cutting routes and capacity.

And we believe if we are going to maintain high load factors and deliver 15% traffic growth, we are going to have to be very aggressive on pricing.

But we are being aggressive on pricing to maintain -- or to maintain our growth.

We don't care about competitors.

We continue to argue that we don't have any competitors down at these kind of fare levels.

It is also, if you like, key to some of the airport discussions we are having at the moment, where there is a lot of airports, both large and secondary airports, in significant crisis as they lose up to 20% of their traffic.

I think some of those airports will offer exceptional cost deals next winter if we agree to open routes or stimulate traffic in those airports next winter.

But I think the only way you're going to stimulate that kind of traffic or that kind of growth will be on the back of very low air fares.

If it happens to damage your competitors, or if it happens to win more market share from competitors, it is a happy byproduct, but it is not our intention.

Okay.

So the key issue would to price as aggressively as you have to to get the passengers stimulated?

Absolutely.

On the summer, I know the call earlier you mentioned something about April and May not really being any way meaningful or representative for what you expect for the full year.

Is there anything of statistical relevance in for June, July and August at this stage?

June, we would have a fair idea.

July and August, no not so much.

We have a bit of visibility there, but a lot of yield performance through July and August comes from the later booking passengers.

I think it is safe to say, and I think more at the analyst conference this morning, characterized that are we being very conservative and bearish on our yield outlook for the year?

Yes, we are.

Do I think it will be -- do we think it will be worse than minus 20%?

No, I don't.

But I do think it will be somewhere between minus 15% to minus 20%.

If there is going to be any change then it should be on the upside.

I don't think it will be any worse than this.

But I am not one of these believers in green shoots of recovery.

I think the European economies are in deep trouble.

I think the European governments -- the attempt to say the UK and the Irish governments are (inaudible) silly tourist types is very damaging to air travel and tourism generally.

And until we see some repeal of those kind of stupid taxes, I think the airlines will essentially have to cut fares and pick up that kind of -- absorb a lot of that taxes in their own yields.

Can I ask two financial questions for Howard please?

Howard, just first as a follow-up to the previous question on the gross CapEx, the EUR1.2 billion, is that -- in terms of just the actual impact on the net debt figure, will there be many aircraft we need to factor in for coming on operating leases that might be included in the EUR1.2 billion?

I would say you would want to factor about 80% of that being on-balance sheet debt.

And then 20% --?

20% operating leases.

They are leases financing we would have committed to last year for aircraft that are being delivered in this year.

Great.

The second one, Howard, is just on the net interest line.

I just noticed the net interest line had a big jump up in the fourth quarter.

And I was wondering if you could update us on where the dynamics are on the [deposit] interest rates versus the rates on the (multiple speakers)?

Like everybody else, interest rates have dramatically fallen.

We have also over the last year shifted our deposits to, I suppose, AAA or as best as we can get, AA.

And obviously that has had a knock-in.

We have also moved to a slightly shorter deposit horizon as well.

So they would be the primary drivers between a lower net -- or a higher net interest charge.

Would the Q4 experience be a reasonable working assumption for the run rate for the next 12 months?

I will have to come back to you on that.

It obviously depends on the level of the cash at the year end.

But I think you would expect, given the size of the capital expenditure program this year, and the number of on balance debt aircraft that we will take, that capital will widened.

Jonathan Wober.

Jonathan Wober from Societe Generale in London.

Just some follow-up questions after this morning's meeting, if I may please.

Just first of all, can you give me what was the aircraft value of on-balance sheet aircraft at the year end?

And the number within your fixed assets that you disclosed, you haven't given the actual aircraft within that.

Secondly, what was the average fleet age at the year end?

And then finally, there was some headlines coming on the newswires following the analyst meeting this morning about your having an interest in Lufthansa.

I wonder if you can comment on those?

I will take it back in reverse order.

I was asked at the conference -- the press conference this morning were we looking at any other -- were there any other airlines out there that were of interest.

We said, well, as our market cap rises above EUR5 billion and Luftansa falls down to EUR3 billion, maybe Lufthansa might be interesting to us.

We are not, though, looking at further consolidation in the sector.

I am not sure at this point in time we would be interested in bidding for Lufthansa or any of the other smaller airlines out there.

But I think it does help to illustrate the point.

The Financial Times rather cheekly ran an article last week talking about the three big European airlines and forgot to mention Ryanair.

We are the biggest airline in Europe, both by traffic and by market cap.

And it is no harm to remind people of that occasionally.

But for no, we have no particular interest in acquiring Luftansa.

We will acquire lots of their passengers in the coming year or two by simply taking them off on the back of our expanding bases in the German market.

Fleet age at the end of the year is 2.77 years.

And, Howard, the balance sheet aircraft?

Most of -- if you look at the -- on the balance sheet we published the property, plant and equipment is 99% aircraft.

There is very little of anything else.

We have a few hangers, some simulators.

We can say pretty much 99% of that number is aircraft.

Did that number also include advance payments?

It does indeed.

Can you strip that out?

No, but it is a very big number.

Presumably it will be in the annual report.

No, it all goes into fixed assets.

If we strip that out you can work out what we are paying for the aircraft, and that is a number that we are keen not to divulge.

We have no further questions at this point.

(Operator Instructions).

No, (inaudible).

We don't like silences on these calls.

If nobody has any other questions, we will say thank you very much for joining us on the conference call.

We have six Investor Relations teams out on the road this week across the UK, Europe and the US.

If for some reason, you're not on our list, please contact us through either our office in Dublin or through Morgan Stanley or Davy's, and we will be happy to visit you and give you a briefing.

And I think if I can leave you with a couple of thoughts, it is I think this recession has never -- there is a very positive environment for Ryanair out there.

We have demonstrated last year we can be profitable at astonishingly high oil prices.

I think the trends in the market generally in Europe are positive.

Passengers have become much more price sensitive.

We intend to capitalize on that price sensitivity over the next 12 months by further lowering fares, taking traffic off the competition, also stimulating additional traffic.

Then with the benefit of much lower unit costs and lower oil prices, I think we could look forward to a year where profits in the next 12 months will at least double.

And who knows, if the yield decline isn't as bad as we are kind of guiding at the moment, than the profit growth over the next 12 months could be somewhat better than that.

Other than that, we look forward to seeing you all on the road at some stage over the next -- over the rest of this week.

And if for some reason we don't get to you, please feel free to come see us in Dublin.

We would be happy to talk to you about the future of air travel in Europe, which will be low fares and on Ryanair.

Because business class is finished, and I think the business models of some of our higher cost competitors are doomed to fail.

Thanks very much everybody.

I look forward to meeting you later in the week.

Bye-bye.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation.

This concludes today's conference.

You may now disconnect your lines.

Thank you.