使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Incorporated second-quarter 2024 earnings call. This conference is being recorded. During management's presentation and in response to your questions, we will be making forward-looking statements about the company's business outlook and expectations. These forward-looking statements and all other statements that are not historical facts reflect management's beliefs and predictions as of today, and therefore, are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the company's SEC filings.
大家下午好,歡迎參加 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Incorporated 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中。在管理層的演講和回答您的問題時,我們將就公司的業務前景和期望做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述和所有其他非歷史事實的陳述反映了管理層截至目前的信念和預測,因此受到公司向 SEC 文件中所述的風險和不確定性的影響。
Management will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures as a part of today's conference call. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles but are intended to illustrate alternative measures of the company's operating performance that may be useful. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings release. The company has posted its second-quarter 2024 earnings release on its website at ir.redrobin.com.
作為今天電話會議的一部分,管理層還將討論非公認會計準則財務措施。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準並非根據公認會計原則制定,而是旨在說明可能有用的公司經營績效的替代衡量標準。非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節表可以在收益報告中找到。該公司已在其網站 ir.redrobin.com 上發布了 2024 年第二季財報。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Red Robin's President and Chief Executive Officer, G.J. Hart. G.J., please go ahead.
現在我想將電話轉給 Red Robin 的總裁兼執行長 G.J.哈特。 G.J.,請繼續。
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Red Robin. Our results for the second quarter and our reduced outlook for the remainder of the year are not what we expected when we last communicated in May, with the slowdown experienced in the broader restaurant industry masking the substantial progress we continue to make against our North Star plan.
大家下午好,感謝您對紅羅賓的興趣。我們第二季度的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的下調預期並未達到我們上次在 5 月份溝通時的預期,更廣泛的餐飲業經歷的放緩掩蓋了我們在北極星計劃方面繼續取得的實質性進展。
While we cannot control the macroeconomic environment, we hold ourselves accountable to deliver a great experience to every guest through our high-quality gourmet burgers and our family-friendly atmosphere. We measure multiple proof points that the initiatives we implemented over the past 20 months have elevated the guest experience. This is showcased best by guest satisfaction scores increasing to levels Red Robin has not achieved since 2016.
雖然我們無法控制宏觀經濟環境,但我們有責任透過高品質的美味漢堡和家庭友善的氛圍為每位客人提供良好的體驗。我們衡量了多個證據,證明我們在過去 20 個月中實施的措施提升了賓客體驗。賓客滿意度得分上升至 Red Robin 自 2016 年以來從未達到的水平就充分體現了這一點。
During the past three months, comparable restaurant revenue exceeded the industry average as measured by Black Box Intelligence and traffic return to in line with the industry. In each of the trailing three weeks, despite the challenging environment, comparable restaurant revenue returned to marginally positive. With this progress, we continue to expect to meet or exceed the industry average on traffic through the remainder of the year.
在過去三個月中,根據 Black Box Intelligence 的衡量,可比餐廳收入超過了行業平均水平,客流量也恢復到了行業水平。在過去的三週中,儘管環境充滿挑戰,但可比餐廳的收入仍略有回升。憑藉這一進展,我們繼續預計今年剩餘時間內的流量將達到或超過行業平均水平。
Before I dive into more specifics, I'd like to extend my heartfelt thank you to all of the more than 20,000 team members across the country. Your hard work and dedication to our guests is what drives us every day to be better. We will succeed in revitalizing this beloved brand with all of us working towards the same goals all in this together.
在詳細介紹之前,我想向全國 20,000 多名團隊成員表示衷心的感謝。您的辛勤工作和對客人的奉獻是我們每天變得更好的動力。透過我們所有人共同努力實現相同的目標,我們將成功振興這個深受喜愛的品牌。
Starting with operations, delivering a great guest experience is the backbone of our turnaround efforts. When we announced the North Star plan, our guest satisfaction score lagged the casual dining industry by 10 points, representing the widest margin in nearly a decade. It is our firm belief that a beloved brand like Red Robin should be leading in this area.
從營運開始,提供卓越的賓客體驗是我們轉虧為盈的支柱。當我們宣布北極星計畫時,我們的賓客滿意度得分落後休閒餐飲業 10 個百分點,這是近十年來的最高差距。我們堅信,像紅羅賓這樣深受喜愛的品牌應該在這一領域處於領先地位。
At the heart of everything we do is a commitment to great hospitality, serving delicious food at a great price and creating a fun friendly atmosphere with every visit. I'm proud that we have delivered significant gains across this area of our business. As part of these initiatives, in 2023, we added servers allowing each to focus their efforts on fewer tables and reduce false weights. We brought back host and busters to improve table turns and cleanliness. And we return to a dedicated kitchen expo and management structure to provide timely and accurate delivery of orders.
我們所做一切的核心是致力於提供熱情好客的服務,以優惠的價格提供美味的食物,並為每次光臨營造有趣友好的氛圍。我很自豪我們在這一業務領域取得了顯著的成果。作為這些舉措的一部分,我們在 2023 年添加了伺服器,使每個人都可以將精力集中在更少的桌子上並減少錯誤權重。我們帶回了主人和破壞者來改善桌子的轉動和清潔。我們回歸專門的廚房博覽會和管理結構,以提供及時、準確的訂單交付。
Importantly, we continue to see positive momentum from our efforts. Compared to the scores in the second quarter of 2023, we have seen manager visits, 13% more tables than last year. This dedication from the management team is critically important for many reasons, including that we know when a manager visits a table engages our guests. Guests rate their experience 12% better.
重要的是,我們的努力繼續呈現正面動力。與 2023 年第二季的分數相比,我們看到經理人造訪的桌子數量比去年增加了 13%。管理團隊的這種奉獻精神至關重要,原因有很多,包括我們知道經理何時造訪餐桌會吸引我們的客人。客人對體驗的評價提高了 12%。
Our guests report a 7% improvement on pace of experience and 3% gains in order served on time. Wait times greater than 15 minutes are an indicator of false waits. In the second quarter of 2022, 10% of our gas reported waiting more than 15 minutes. And in the second quarter of 2023, it was reduced to 3% and now down to 1% in the second quarter of this year.
我們的客人表示,體驗速度提高了 7%,訂單準時送達率提高了 3%。等待時間超過 15 分鐘就表示有錯誤等待。 2022 年第二季度,我們 10% 的 Gas 報告等待時間超過 15 分鐘。而在2023年第二季度,則降至3%,現在今年第二季降至1%。
August measures in the off-premise portion of our business have increase, led by a 7% increase in order accuracy and taste of food and a 6% increase in friendliness of our team. We've also made investments in our food, including flat-top grills which deliver a thicker, juicier, and more flavorful burger; unveiled more than 20 improved gourmet burgers prepared with high-quality ingredients; expanded our bottomless menu with more than 30 items that provide unmatched value to our guests; and upgraded our bar menu to include higher quality brands that our guests know and love.
8 月份,我們業務的場外部分的衡量指標有所增加,其中訂單準確性和食物口味提高了 7%,團隊友善程度提高了 6%。我們也對食物進行了投資,包括提供更厚、更多汁、更美味的漢堡的平頂烤架;推出20餘款採用優質食材烹調的改良美食漢堡;擴大了我們的無限菜單,增加了 30 多種菜餚,為我們的客人提供無與倫比的價值;並升級了我們的酒吧菜單,加入了我們的客人了解和喜愛的更高品質的品牌。
Again, the proof's in the numbers. Looking year over year, we have seen. We've executed our bottomless promise offer to 90% of our guests, a 9% increase versus last year. Food quality scores improved by 4% according to surveys from our royalty guests. And food quality scores outperform the casual dining average by 3% according to Technomic.
再說一次,證據就在數字裡。年復一年地看,我們已經看到了。我們已經向 90% 的客人兌現了我們的無限承諾優惠,比去年增加了 9%。根據我們的皇室賓客的調查,食品品質得分提高了 4%。根據 Technomic 的數據,食品品質得分比休閒餐飲平均得分高出 3%。
The result of these initiatives is overall guest satisfaction that has reached parity to the casual dining industry over the last two quarters for the first time in almost nine years. Importantly, the improvement in guest satisfaction is showing up through many different sources, including dine-in overall guest satisfaction scores have increased 6%, Black Box social net sentiment is up 17%, and negative guest complaints are at an all-time low, declining 29% versus the second quarter last year.
這些舉措的結果是,客人的整體滿意度在過去兩個季度近九年來首次達到了休閒餐飲業的水平。重要的是,客人滿意度的改善透過許多不同的來源體現出來,包括就餐的總體客人滿意度得分增加了 6%,Black Box 社交網絡情緒上升了 17%,客人的負面投訴處於歷史最低水平。去年第二季相比下降了29%。
Providing a great guest experience to our guests remains the single most important element to improving the performance of our business and is the largest contributing factor to deliver growth in guest traffic counts. It requires a relentless pursuit of executing the fundamentals at every level which our teams are dedicated to pushing toward every day on every shift for every guest. And we are truly proud of the significant progress that we are making on this front.
為賓客提供卓越的賓客體驗仍然是提高我們業務績效的最重要因素,也是實現賓客流量成長的最大貢獻因素。它需要不懈地追求在各個層面上執行基本原則,我們的團隊致力於為每位客人的每一天、每班次努力推動這一點。我們對我們在這方面取得的重大進展感到非常自豪。
Following the improvements we made last year, 2024 is about putting Red Robin back on the map in the minds of consumers, communicating value and harnessing the power of our relaunched loyalty program to drive guest engagement. Starting in March, we rolled out our new marketing plan. As part of the plan, we tested multiple applications to understand the response curve for increased spending levels of targeted digital media, including the use of selective traditional TV. We began by promoting the competitive breadth and value of our 30 bottomless menu items far more than only the Bottomless Steak Fries many guests know us for.
繼去年做出的改進之後,2024 年我們將讓 Red Robin 重新出現在消費者心目中,傳達價值並利用我們重新推出的忠誠度計劃的力量來提高賓客參與度。從三月開始,我們推出了新的行銷計劃。作為該計劃的一部分,我們測試了多種應用程序,以了解目標數位媒體支出水準增加的響應曲線,包括選擇性傳統電視的使用。我們首先宣傳 30 種無底菜單菜餚的競爭廣度和價值,遠遠超出許多客人所熟知的無底牛排薯條。
We highlighted our upgraded high-quality ingredients and reintroduced fund to our iconic brand. We improved guest engagement and grew our loyalty members with a focus on new member sign-ups and communicating the great benefits of being a Red Robin fan. In May, we launched our Leave Room for Fun campaign that was developed to take back our ownable position as the most engaging and fun experience in casual dining while continuing to emphasize the quality transformation of our menu and competitive value offerings.
我們強調了升級後的優質原料,並為我們的標誌性品牌重新引入了資金。我們提高了賓客參與度並培養了我們的忠誠會員,重點關注新會員註冊並傳達成為紅羅賓粉絲的巨大好處。五月,我們推出了「Leave Room for Fun」活動,旨在奪回我們作為休閒餐飲中最具吸引力和樂趣的體驗的地位,同時繼續強調我們菜單的品質轉型和具有競爭力的價值產品。
This included contemporary new imagery, putting more humanity into our marketing, injected a more positive and confident tone while igniting our guest's inner child with connective new ads like Fun Guy, which garnered over 1.5 million views in the first week in market. We incorporated initial learnings and work to optimize our media mix by doubling down on social and digital streaming, TV, and video, including platforms such as Amazon, Hulu, and other strong partners. This targeted approach was intended to drive greater efficiency and reach among our core target guests.
其中包括現代的新形象,為我們的行銷注入更多的人性化,注入更積極和自信的基調,同時透過像Fun Guy 這樣具有關聯性的新廣告點燃我們客人內心的童心,該廣告在上市第一週就獲得了超過150 萬次觀看。我們吸收了初步經驗,並透過加倍投入社交和數位串流媒體、電視和視訊(包括亞馬遜、Hulu 和其他強大合作夥伴等平台)來優化我們的媒體組合。這種有針對性的方法旨在提高效率並涵蓋我們的核心目標客人。
The test groups showcased that increased ad spend drives incremental traffic at Red Robin, and in some markets, delivered results better than the casual dining segment based in Black Box data. In each of the two test groups, our team was able to deliver a benchmark 2% traffic lift. While it was appropriate and necessary to test higher spending levels, we also executed a test with more efficient tactics and spending levels. Our team did a great job to deliver the same 2% lift with strategies that invested approximately $400 per restaurant per week rather than the 3,000 per restaurant per week in the higher investment group.
測試小組表明,廣告支出的增加推動了 Red Robin 的流量增加,並且在某些市場中,根據 Black Box 數據,其結果優於休閒餐飲領域。在兩個測試組中,我們的團隊都能達到 2% 的基準流量提升。雖然測試較高的支出水準是適當且必要的,但我們也使用更有效的策略和支出水準進行了測試。我們的團隊做得很好,透過每週為每家餐廳投資約 400 美元的策略實現了同樣 2% 的提升,而不是較高投資組中每家餐廳每週投資 3,000 美元的策略。
This efficiency was achieved with a mix of digital, social, and owned, and earned channels to reach the right guest at the right time. As we look towards the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, these learnings give us great confidence in our ability to drive traffic while at the same time rationalizing our spending levels with these efficient tactics.
這種效率是透過數位、社交和自有管道的組合來實現的,以便在正確的時間接觸到正確的客人。當我們展望 2024 年剩餘時間和 2025 年時,這些經驗教訓讓我們對自己推動流量的能力充滿信心,同時透過這些有效的策略合理化我們的支出水準。
Turning to loyalty. In May, we relaunched our revamped Red Robin Royalty program. Under our new program, guests earn 1 point for every $1 spent. After earning 100 points, guests receive a $10 reward good for both dine-in as well as online orders. This allows guests to earn a reward much faster than the previous program and encourages more frequent visitation to capitalized on their earned rewards.
轉向忠誠。五月,我們重新啟動了改進後的紅羅賓皇室計劃。根據我們的新計劃,客人每消費 1 美元即可賺取 1 點積分。獲得 100 點積分後,客人將獲得 10 美元的獎勵,可用於堂食和線上訂購。這使得客人能夠比以前的計劃更快地獲得獎勵,並鼓勵更頻繁的訪問以利用他們獲得的獎勵。
The 90-day redemption window for earned rewards provides an incentive for return visits. Guest response during the first 10 weeks of this program has exceeded our expectations. Our operators have done a great job engaging with guests and driving enrollment in the program. Since the launch of the new program, guest sign-ups have increased from 60,000 to 90,000 per four-week financial period prior to the loyalty launch to an average of 160,000 seats. These sign-ups are an increase of 156% versus the same timeframe in 2023.
所獲獎勵的 90 天兌換期限可激勵回訪。該計劃前 10 週的賓客反應超出了我們的預期。我們的營運商在與客人互動和推動該計劃的註冊方面做得非常出色。自新計劃推出以來,在忠誠度計劃推出之前,賓客註冊人數從每四周 60,000 人增加到 90,000 人,平均座位數達到 160,000 人。與 2023 年同期相比,這些註冊量增加了 156%。
The 30,000 new members signed up and completed a transaction in the last four weeks of the second quarter, up 240% from the same period last year. New loyalty members are visiting more frequently. The average time until a second visit has been reduced from 51 days to 39 days. Additionally, the number of members transacting two times or more has increased 12%, with the largest increase in members typically visiting two to five times per year.
第二季最後四週新增會員報名並完成交易3萬名,較去年同期成長240%。新的忠誠會員來訪的頻率更高。第二次就診的平均時間已從 51 天縮短至 39 天。此外,進行兩次或以上交易的會員數量增加了 12%,其中會員通常每年訪問 2 至 5 次的會員增幅最大。
Loyalty guests typically spend more than non-loyalty members. The total check for our loyalty guests has increased to approximately $4.40 greater than the non-loyalty guests from approximately $2.90 previously. And we have demonstrated good early success reactivating lapsed members to come and experienced the upgrades we have made in food and hospitality.
忠誠客人通常比非忠誠會員花費更多。我們的忠誠客戶的支票總額已從先前的約 2.90 美元增加到比非忠誠客戶高出約 4.40 美元。我們已經在早期成功地重新激活了流失的會員,並體驗了我們在食物和招待方面所做的升級。
In addition, we can now utilize our new customer data capability to drive future visitation with more personalized communication to compel the next visit. As we continue to cultivate our relationship with new and existing guests alike, we're adding layers of gamification, surprise and delight, and even exclusive access to meet new menu items through royalty 2.0. With the success of the launch of the new program, our total membership is over 14.2 million guests as of the end of the second quarter, and we expect that figure will continue to grow. We are pleased with the launch and initial traction of this new loyalty program and fully expect it to be a key driver of traffic for our future business.
此外,我們現在可以利用新的客戶數據功能,透過更個人化的溝通來推動未來的訪問,以吸引下一次訪問。隨著我們繼續培養與新老客人的關係,我們正在增加遊戲化、驚喜和喜悅的層次,甚至可以透過Royalty 2.0 獨家訪問新菜單項目。隨著新計劃的成功推出,截至第二季末,我們的會員總數已超過 1,420 萬名客人,我們預計該數字將繼續增長。我們對這項新忠誠度計畫的推出和初步吸引力感到高興,並完全期望它成為我們未來業務流量的關鍵驅動力。
Overall, I'm very proud of the progress we have made against our North Star plan. As our guest experience is substantially improved, we've become more efficient and effective with how we deploy our marketing dollars. And we are in the early stages of utilizing our new loyalty program to be a driver of traffic and sales growth going forward.
總的來說,我對我們在北極星計畫方面取得的進展感到非常自豪。隨著我們的賓客體驗大幅改善,我們在行銷資金的部署上也變得更加高效和有效。我們正處於利用新的忠誠度計劃來推動未來流量和銷售成長的早期階段。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Todd to walk you through the financial performance before I provide some closing remarks.
接下來,我將把電話轉給托德,在我提供一些結束語之前,他將向您介紹財務表現。
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, G.J., and good afternoon, everyone. In the second quarter, total revenues were $300.2 million versus $298.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2023. Comparable restaurant revenue increased 1.4%, benefiting 220 basis points from revenue recognized related to the relaunch of our loyalty program.
謝謝你,G.J.,大家下午好。第二季的總收入為 3.002 億美元,而 2023 財年第二季的總收入為 2.986 億美元。
Excluding the benefit of the loyalty related revenue recognition, our comparable restaurant revenue decreased 0.8%. The decline was driven by results in the second half of the quarter related to the broad-based consumer slowdown experienced across the industry. Comparable restaurant revenue in the first six weeks of the quarter increased 0.4%, then declined 1.9% in the final six weeks.
剔除與忠誠度相關的收入確認帶來的好處,我們的可比餐廳收入下降了 0.8%。下降的原因是本季下半年的業績,該業績與整個行業廣泛的消費者放緩有關。本季前六週的可比餐廳收入成長了 0.4%,然後在最後六週下降了 1.9%。
Now in the third quarter, we've seen comparable restaurant revenue results in each of the past three weeks returned to marginally positive. Restaurant-level operating profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue was 11.8%, a decrease of 80 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2023. The decline was primarily driven by lower guest counts and our strategic investments in labor and food quality to support hospitality and the guest experience. This investment is the foundation for improved financial performance, and we expect it to drive guests back into our restaurants and increased profitability.
現在在第三季度,我們看到過去三週每一周的可比餐廳收入結果都略有回升。餐廳層面的營業利潤佔餐廳收入的百分比為11.8%,與2023 年第二季度相比下降了80 個基點。的策略投資以及賓客體驗。這項投資是改善財務表現的基礎,我們預計它將吸引客人回到我們的餐廳並提高獲利能力。
We experienced greater inflation than we expected in our commodity basket, particularly ground beef, chicken and produce. Additionally, labor costs are elevated relative to our expectation led by two primary factors. First, our newer leaders and team members are working to build mastery and efficiency in their roles, resulting in a near term increase in labor costs that we expect to normalize in time.
我們的商品籃子,特別是碎牛肉、雞肉和農產品,經歷了比我們預期更大的通膨。此外,由於兩個主要因素,勞動成本相對於我們的預期有所上升。首先,我們的新領導和團隊成員正在努力提高其角色的掌握度和效率,導致勞動成本在短期內增加,我們預計這筆成本會及時正常化。
Second, we experienced a spike in high dollar health insurance claims well above the actuarial norm. That totaled approximately $1.5 million in the second quarter. Our claims experience to date in the third quarter indicates a return to the actuarial expectation. Our team continues to do great work, pursuing and capturing thoughtful cost savings that maintain our commitment of parity or better for the guest experience.
其次,我們經歷了高額健康保險索賠的激增,遠高於精算標準。第二季總計約 150 萬美元。迄今為止,我們第三季的索賠經驗顯示已恢復到精算預期。我們的團隊將繼續出色的工作,追求並實現深思熟慮的成本節約,以維持我們對平等或更好的賓客體驗的承諾。
In the second quarter, we launched key new initiatives, including a reboot of our actual versus theoretical food cost measurement and reporting to assist our operators in identifying and reducing food waste. We also continue to pursue opportunities to consolidate vendors and use our scale to our advantage across multiple categories, including proteins.
在第二季度,我們推出了重要的新舉措,包括重新啟動實際與理論食品成本測量和報告,以幫助我們的經營者識別和減少食品浪費。我們也繼續尋求機會整合供應商,並利用我們的規模在包括蛋白質在內的多個類別中發揮優勢。
General and administrative costs were $16.6 million as compared to $20.1 million in the second quarter of 2023. The reduction resulted primarily from reduced accrual of incentive compensation expenses. Selling expenses were $12 million, an increase versus the prior year of $5.3 million. The increase results primarily from an increase in guest facing marketing activity and related production costs and the marketing spend optimization testing we completed during the quarter.
一般及行政費用為 1,660 萬美元,而 2023 年第二季為 2,010 萬美元。銷售費用為 1,200 萬美元,比上年增加 530 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於面向客戶的營銷活動和相關生產成本以及我們在本季度完成的營銷支出優化測試的增加。
Adjusted EBITDA was $11.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. The $3.6 million decline versus the second quarter of 2023 was driven by lower guest counts, occupancy costs related to our sale leaseback transactions, and the increased health insurance costs I referenced earlier. We ended the second quarter with $23.1 million of cash and cash equivalents, $8 million of restricted cash, and $25 million of available borrowing capacity under our revolving line of credit. At quarter end, our outstanding principal balance under our credit agreement was $167.9 million.
2024 年第二季調整後EBITDA 為1,180 萬美元。增加。截至第二季末,我們的現金和現金等價物為 2,310 萬美元,限制性現金為 800 萬美元,循環信貸額度下的可用借款能力為 2,500 萬美元。截至季末,我們的信貸協議項下的未清本金餘額為 1.679 億美元。
Turning now to our 2024 guidance, we have updated our guidance to the following. Total revenue of approximately $1.25 billion. Restaurant-level operating profit of 11.0% to 11.5%, inclusive of investments in the guest experience and rent expenses related to the sale leaseback transactions. Adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $45 million. As a reminder, as is historical practice for Red Robin, our reported adjusted EBITDA and our adjusted EBITDA guidance do not add back non-cash stock-based compensation expenses, which we estimate with total approximately $7 million in 2024. Capital expenditures of $25 million to $30 million.
現在轉向我們的 2024 年指南,我們已將指南更新為以下內容。總收入約12.5億美元。餐廳級營業利潤為11.0%至11.5%,包括對賓客體驗的投資以及與售後回租交易相關的租金費用。調整後 EBITDA 為 4,000 萬至 4,500 萬美元。提醒一下,按照 Red Robin 的歷史慣例,我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 指引不會增加非現金股票補償費用,我們估計 2024 年總計約為 700 萬美元。美元。
The largest contributing factor to our guidance reduction is a change in our underlying assumption for the casual dining industry traffic for the remainder of the year. While in each of the most recent three weeks, traffic trends have improved and comparable restaurant sales have been marginally positive, we are approaching our revised guidance cautiously given the choppiness in the consumer environment. We also updated our expectations for commodity inflation, labor costs and various other inputs.
導致我們指引下調的最大因素是我們對今年剩餘時間休閒餐飲業客流量的基本假設發生了變化。雖然最近三週的客流量趨勢有所改善,可比餐廳的銷售額也略有增長,但考慮到消費環境的動盪,我們正在謹慎對待修訂後的指導方針。我們也更新了對商品通膨、勞動成本和各種其他投入的預期。
Our expectations for the third and fourth quarter individually are as follows. In the third quarter, we anticipate comparable restaurant traffic will decline approximately 5%, in line with recent trends, and PPA will increase approximately 5%. Our PPA expectation includes the benefit of what we expect as our final menu increase of 2024 in mid-September.
我們對第三季和第四季的預期分別如下。在第三季度,我們預計可比餐廳客流量將下降約 5%,與近期趨勢一致,而 PPA 將增加約 5%。我們的 PPA 預期包括我們預計 2024 年 9 月中旬最終菜單增加所帶來的好處。
From a profitability perspective, the third quarter typically represents the low point of our seasonal guest traffic and sales volumes, resulting in our expectation for a minimal adjusted EBITDA contribution. In the fourth quarter, we anticipate comparable restaurant traffic will decline 4% to 5% and PPA will increase 7% to 8%. The increase in PPA results from the September menu increase being effective for the full fourth quarter. This pricing action is pre-emptive to legislated labor increases that are effective in many states from January 1, and we anticipate PPA increases will then moderate through 2025.
從獲利能力的角度來看,第三季通常是我們季節性客流量和銷售量的低點,因此我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻將降至最低。在第四季度,我們預計可比餐廳客流量將下降 4% 至 5%,PPA 將成長 7% 至 8%。 PPA 的增加是由於 9 月的菜單增加對整個第四季度有效。這項定價行動是對從 1 月 1 日起在許多州生效的立法勞動力成長的先發製人,我們預計購電協議的成長將在 2025 年之前放緩。
From a profitability perspective, seasonal guest traffic and sales volumes typically increase in the holiday season, resulting in greater adjusted EBITDA contribution in the fourth quarter relative to the third. We expect total selling expenses of approximately $38 million in 2024, driven by our re-optimized allocation of funds based on our efficiency and effectiveness learnings from the first half of the year. We currently expect these learnings will result in selling expenses of approximately $30 million in 2025. We expect G&A expenses will be approximately $81 million in 2024, reduced from our initial expectations due to anticipated lower incentive compensation expenses and other cost savings measures.
從獲利能力的角度來看,季節性客流量和銷售通常會在假期季節增加,導致第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻相對於第三季更大。我們預計 2024 年總銷售費用約為 3,800 萬美元,這是我們根據上半年的效率和有效性經驗重新優化資金分配的推動。我們目前預計這些經驗將導致2025 年的銷售費用約為3,000 萬美元。我們預計2024 年的一般管理費用將約為8,100 萬美元,由於預期的激勵補償費用和其他成本節約措施預計會降低,因此比我們最初的預期有所減少。
Finally, as we have shared previously, our fiscal calendar reverts to a 52-week fiscal year in 2024 as compared to 53 weeks in 2023. We expect this will result in an approximate $25 million reduction in restaurant sales and $3 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA as compared to 2023.
最後,正如我們之前分享的,我們的財年日曆將在 2024 年恢復為 52 週,而 2023 年為 53 週。與2023 年相比。
Now moving to our credit agreement. On August 21, we executed an amendment to the credit agreement. Most notably and among other items, the amendment increases our compliance leverage ratios and expands the revolver from $25 million to $40 million from the third quarter of fiscal 2024 through the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The additional financial flexibility supports our efforts executing the North Star plan. We appreciate the great partnership from our lender group, led by [4TRESS], and thank you to everyone who contributed to completing this work.
現在轉向我們的信貸協議。 8月21日,我們執行了信貸協議的修訂案。最值得注意的是,該修正案提高了我們的合規槓桿率,並將從2024 財年第三季到2025 財年第三季的循環資金從2,500 萬美元擴大到4,000 萬美元。靈活性支持我們執行北極星計畫的努力計畫。我們感謝 [4TRESS] 領導的貸方團隊的良好合作夥伴關係,並感謝為完成這項工作做出貢獻的所有人。
With that, I will turn the call back over to G.J.
這樣,我會將電話轉回 G.J.
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Todd. While we expect that may be a dynamic consumer environment in the near term, our teams are focused on executing our strategic plan each and every day to position Red Robin for long-term success. We see measurable proof points from our guests that the initiatives we put in place over the past 20 months have strengthened our operations, improved our food offerings, and created experience guests enjoy. We are committed to taking prudent action to rationalize our cost structure through the changes in selling and G&A expenses. And we've created helpful financial flexibility with our amended credit agreement.
謝謝你,托德。雖然我們預計短期內可能會出現一個充滿活力的消費環境,但我們的團隊每天都專注於執行我們的策略計劃,以使 Red Robin 長期成功。我們從客人那裡看到了可衡量的證據,表明我們在過去 20 個月中採取的舉措加強了我們的運營,改善了我們的食品供應,並創造了客人享受的體驗。我們致力於採取審慎行動,透過銷售和一般管理費用的變化來合理化我們的成本結構。我們透過修訂後的信貸協議創造了有益的財務靈活性。
As we look to the coming years, we believe 2024 will be a trough for our financial performance that then rebounds on the back of these efforts in 2025 and off and beyond. Collectively, the actions we are taking and the great feedback we continue to receive from guests and team members give us great confidence we are on the path to long-term success for this beloved brand.
展望未來幾年,我們相信 2024 年將是我們財務表現的低谷,然後在 2025 年及以後的這些努力的支持下反彈。總的來說,我們正在採取的行動以及我們不斷從客人和團隊成員那裡收到的良好回饋給了我們很大的信心,我們正在為這個深受喜愛的品牌取得長期成功。
We are now happy to take questions. So operator, please open up the lines.
我們現在很樂意回答問題。所以接線員,請開通線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jeremy Hamblin, Craig-Hallum.
(操作員說明)Jeremy Hamblin,Craig-Hallum。
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Good evening, and thanks for taking the questions. So I wanted to just start with the change in the EBITDA guide, lower $20 million to $25 million. And just understand the components of that that changed versus what you expected at the end of May is your revenue guidance only -- really at the lower end of your prior range. So just if your restaurant-level margins are going to be 150 to 200 basis points lower, could you help us break down the component parts to get to that 150 to 200 basis point change?
晚上好,感謝您提出問題。所以我想從 EBITDA 指南的變更開始,將 2000 萬美元降低到 2500 萬美元。只需了解與您在五月底的預期相比發生變化的組成部分只是您的收入指導 - 實際上處於您之前範圍的下限。那麼,如果您的餐廳利潤率要降低 150 到 200 個基點,您能否幫助我們分解各個組成部分,以實現 150 到 200 個基點的變化?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Jerry. Todd here. Happy to walk through that. I think a couple of headlines that bridge that for you.
嘿,傑瑞。托德在這裡。很高興能經歷這過程。我想有幾個頭條新聞可以幫助你解決這個問題。
First, as you alluded to, if you go back to our guidance at the end of the prior quarter, we thought we saw a path, and frankly, we were on the path to returning to positive traffic in the third and the fourth quarters. And with the shift that we saw in the consumer environment in the middle of the second quarter, it felt right given the trends that we were seeing to pair that back. And so I talked about the traffic in our Q3 and Q4 guide in a down four to five range. So it's up roughly 6% reduction in our traffic expectation in the balance of the year. That's about $15 million of the EBITDA change.
首先,正如您所提到的,如果您回到上一季末的指引,我們認為我們看到了一條道路,坦白說,我們正在第三季和第四季恢復正流量。隨著我們在第二季中期看到消費者環境的轉變,考慮到我們看到的與之相符的趨勢,這種轉變感覺是正確的。因此,我在第三季和第四季指南中談到了流量下降了四到五的範圍。因此,我們對今年剩餘時間的流量預期減少了約 6%。這相當於 EBITDA 變化的約 1500 萬美元。
The other two components I call out -- we saw some of the impact in Q2. One is on commodities, ground beef, chicken and produce have run higher in terms of costs and inflation than we previously expected. That's about $3 million, and we baked in about $3 million for some of the labor pressures that we saw that I talked to in Q2 as well. And so there's obviously other puts and takes within the model, but those are the big three in terms of the EBITDA change.
我提到的其他兩個組成部分——我們在第二季度看到了一些影響。一是大宗商品,碎牛肉、雞肉和農產品的成本和通貨膨脹率都高於我們先前的預期。這大約是 300 萬美元,我們為解決我在第二季也談到的一些勞動力壓力而投入了大約 300 萬美元。因此,模型中顯然還有其他的調整和調整,但這些是 EBITDA 變化的三大因素。
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
So just to clarify, the traffic reduction is -- which is the majority of the difference that you're seeing that's spread evenly across your line items, or it's more of deleveraging occupancy and other operating expenses?
因此,需要澄清的是,流量減少是您所看到的主要差異,它均勻分佈在您的訂單項目中,或者更多的是去槓桿化入住率和其他營運費用?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
It's certainly deleveraging those fixed costs, as you alluded to. Just to make sure I was clear on that, in our prior guidance, we had traffic of roughly plus one in the balance of the year, and we're now seeing a more current trend of down four to five.
正如您所提到的,這肯定會去槓桿化這些固定成本。為了確保我清楚這一點,在我們之前的指導中,我們在今年剩餘時間的流量大約增加了一倍,而我們現在看到的趨勢是下降四到五倍。
We commented in the prepared remarks we certainly take an approach that we recognize. It's obviously a big change. Our thought process is if we're going to take that number down, we only want to do it once and then work our way back up. So we certainly hope that that proves to be conservative. But you certainly are seeing the deleveraging in the restaurant-level profits from the fixed costs as you allude to.
我們在準備好的發言中表示,我們當然採取了我們認可的方法。這顯然是一個很大的改變。我們的思考過程是,如果我們要降低這個數字,我們只想做一次,然後再努力恢復。所以我們當然希望這被證明是保守的。但正如您所提到的,您肯定會看到餐廳層面的利潤從固定成本中去槓桿化。
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just want to understand in terms of the G&A expense on a go-forward basis, as you think about that moving into 2025, how would you assess where you expect that level to be on a continuing basis, assuming that your revenue or your restaurant base is roughly the same as where it's going to end '24?
知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是想了解未來的 G&A 費用,當您考慮進入 2025 年時,您將如何評估您期望的持續水平,假設您的收入或您的餐廳基地與 24 世紀末的情況大致相同?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Jeremy, as we think about it right now -- and obviously, we'll come back with more holistic '25 guidance later this year. But as we think about it right now, if you rewind, we came into this year anticipating roughly $90 million of expense. Now some of the favorability in this year's number is due to incentive compensation that we would expect to reload next year, so to speak. But we see more like an $85 million run rate going forward into 2025.
是的,傑里米,正如我們現在所考慮的那樣——顯然,我們將在今年晚些時候帶來更全面的 25 指導。但正如我們現在所想,如果你回顧一下,我們今年預計支出約為 9000 萬美元。現在,今年數字中的一些有利因素是由於我們預計明年會重新加載的激勵性薪酬,可以這麼說。但我們預計到 2025 年,營運費用將達到 8,500 萬美元。
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just last one is really on the consumer response here in the loyalty program. It definitely been a shift, I think, across the restaurant category to more value based options. And just wanted to get an understanding of how you're thinking about pivoting potentially the lineup of offerings that you have or potentially LTOs as we progress through the rest of this year?
知道了。這很有幫助。最後一個是關於忠誠度計劃中消費者的反應。我認為,這絕對是整個餐廳類別轉向更多基於價值的選擇的轉變。只是想了解一下,隨著今年剩餘時間的進展,您如何考慮調整現有的產品陣容或潛在的 LTO?
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Hi, Jeremy, it's G.J. Well, as we've been going through this year, the real focus around bottomless and 30 bottomless items, and that's really picked up steam, given people really only newest of our bottomless fries. So that's number one.
是的。嗨,傑里米,我是 G.J.嗯,正如我們今年所經歷的那樣,真正關注的是無底和 30 種無底薯條,而且這確實得到了推動,因為人們實際上只吃我們最新的無底薯條。所以這是第一。
Number two, the Tavern Burger, which is a lower price option on our menu today. We've been featuring it, and it's been getting quite the traction as well. And then we are sporadically -- we came off of a lot of deep discounting that the company was doing prior to my arrival here and trying to get off of that. And we've done a good job doing that. And then to your point about value now really focus on those two items.
第二,酒館漢堡,這是我們今天菜單上價格較低的選擇。我們一直在重點介紹它,而且它也得到了相當大的關注。然後我們偶爾會擺脫公司在我到達這裡之前所做的大量折扣,並試圖擺脫這種折扣。我們在這方面做得很好。然後就您關於價值的觀點而言,現在真正關注的是這兩個項目。
In addition to that, trying to find some other times like during the lower or the earlier part of the week where we do lower volumes, can we run some promotional activity? We run a $10 Tuesday that we just rolled out that is doing very well for us. We're doing some ad on promotional activity called Monster Mondays for shakes, margaritas, and that's doing well. So we're sporadically putting that in there.
除此之外,試著找一些其他時間,例如在一周的下旬或早些時候,我們的銷量較低,我們可以進行一些促銷活動嗎?我們剛剛推出了周二 10 美元的計劃,這對我們來說效果非常好。我們正在做一些名為「Monster Mondays」的促銷活動廣告,促銷奶昔、瑪格麗塔酒,效果很好。所以我們偶爾把它放在那裡。
But what we don't want to do is go back to deep, deep discounting. We think that we are offering quite the value. In fact, our value scores are good at this point. And we are seeing traction as Todd and I pointed out in the comments earlier that we are seeing a nice lift. So we feel like we're in the right direction and feel like we really are screaming value.
但我們不想做的是回到大幅折扣。我們認為我們正在提供相當的價值。事實上,我們的價值分數目前還不錯。正如托德和我在之前的評論中指出的那樣,我們看到了牽引力,我們看到了良好的提升。所以我們覺得我們的方向是對的,而且我們真的在追求價值。
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst
Got it. Thanks for taking the questions and best wishes.
知道了。感謝您提出問題並致以最美好的祝愿。
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jeremy.
謝謝,傑里米。
Operator
Operator
Todd Brooks, The Benchmark Company.
托德·布魯克斯,基準公司。
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Hey, thanks for taking the questions on. First on loyalty, if we can. It sounds like the relaunch outstripped your expectations. And G.J., you've talked about loyalty being the key driver of the last piece of the traffic recovery that the brand should experience based on all the work that you've done over the past 18 months. I know we've got a macro level overwhelm of some of the benefits in the near-term. But as you think about the early performance of loyalty, just what type of contribution do you see that program being to driving traffic as you start to get out to fiscal '25 and beyond?
嘿,感謝您提出問題。如果可以的話,首先是忠誠。聽起來重新啟動超出了您的預期。 G.J.,您談到忠誠度是流量恢復的最後一部分的關鍵驅動力,根據您過去 18 個月所做的所有工作,品牌應該體驗到這一點。我知道短期內我們在宏觀層面上已經無法承受一些好處。但是,當您考慮忠誠度的早期表現時,您認為該計劃在您開始進入 25 財年及以後時對增加流量有何貢獻?
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Hey, Todd. Is your question relative to how much of a traffic driver compared to the overall business or is it what you are talking about?
是的。嘿,托德。您的問題是與整體業務相比流量驅動因素的多寡有關,還是您所討論的問題?
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Yes. I'm trying to think about, okay, if there's going to be a return to traffic and you've seen improvement in really every metric operationally and satisfaction wise. If I start to think about Red Robin specific traffic drivers in '25 versus industry, what do you see that delta being given that the program seems to be outperforming even your initial expectations?
是的。我正在嘗試考慮,好吧,是否會恢復流量,並且您已經看到每個指標在營運和滿意度方面都有所改善。如果我開始考慮 Red Robin 在 25 年與行業中的特定流量驅動因素,您認為該計劃的表現甚至超出了您最初的預期,您認為增量是什麼?
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So yes, you are right. It is definitely outpacing what we would have expected. We are very, very pleased with that. We are seeing, as we pointed out, with the membership, the new members with the 130,000 new members signed up that transacted in the last four weeks, that's telling us this is going to be a big portion of our guest recovery perspective. But short of putting a number on that, Todd, I will tell you something else is that we've been going out to lapsed users as well and we're seeing phenomenal take back on that as well coming back into the restaurants.
是的。所以是的,你是對的。這絕對超出了我們的預期。我們對此非常非常滿意。正如我們所指出的,我們看到過去四個星期內有 130,000 名新會員註冊並進行了會員交易,這告訴我們這將成為我們客人恢復前景的重要組成部分。但托德,我不想透露具體數字,我要告訴你的是,我們也一直在向流失的用戶提供服務,並且我們看到了驚人的回報,也回到了餐廳。
And of course, with our overall guest satisfaction scores going up like they have, we fully anticipate that that's going to continue to drive guest counts as well. And then of course the spend, the overall check is higher as we pointed out, significantly higher. We're very pleased with that. So for all those reasons, I would tell you that even as bullish as I was before that I'm more bullish now in terms of how it drives our business. So I'm not giving you the exact because I don't really have the number, but we fully anticipate it to lead the way.
當然,隨著我們的整體賓客滿意度分數不斷上升,我們完全預期這也將繼續推動賓客數量的成長。當然,正如我們所指出的,支出、整體支票更高,明顯更高。我們對此非常滿意。因此,出於所有這些原因,我想告訴你,即使我以前很樂觀,但現在我更看好它如何推動我們的業務。所以我不會給你確切的數字,因為我真的沒有這個數字,但我們完全預期它會起到領導作用。
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Great. Thanks, G.J. And then, Todd, a follow-up for you and I'll jump back in queue. Can you walk us through the thinking and the process behind seeking out the amendment? My sense was that it may be out of like a focus on real security around liquidity versus need?
偉大的。謝謝,G.J.然後,托德,您的後續行動,我將重新排隊。您能否向我們介紹一下尋求修正案背後的想法和過程?我的感覺是,這可能是出於對流動性與需求的真正安全的關注?
And can you give us any color, I know you went from a variable pricing grid to a more SOFR plus type of model here. Just the cost of the amendment and maybe where this pushes us out now for a longer-term rework to the credit facility? Thanks.
您能給我們任何顏色嗎?只是修正案的成本,也許這迫使我們現在對信貸安排進行長期重新設計?謝謝。
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Todd, I appreciate the questions. The thinking was a couple of things drove it. Obviously, we saw the change in the consumer in the middle of the second quarter. And I'm sure you have, but for everyone, the credit agreement as it was structured when we entered into it back in 2022 had progressive step downs in the compliance leverage ratios. And I would point out, we were fully in compliance at the end of the second quarter.
是的。托德,我很高興提出這些問題。這個想法是由幾個因素所驅動的。顯然,我們在第二季中期看到了消費者的變化。我確信你們已經了解了,但對於每個人來說,我們在 2022 年簽訂信貸協議時所製定的信貸協議已經逐步降低了合規槓桿率。我想指出的是,我們在第二季末完全遵守了規定。
Obviously, we just executed the amendment yesterday, but it was really those step downs that as we looked forward, we felt like to make sure that we have the time and the flexibility to let the North Star plan really play out. We wanted to create some room to maneuver there. And so this creates additional room out through the third quarter of 2025, both on covenants and on the revolver. And so that's really what spurred it, to really just being proactive to look forward and making sure that we can operate the business and execute the overall plan.
顯然,我們昨天剛剛執行了修正案,但我們確實希望透過這些步驟來確保我們有時間和靈活性,讓北極星計畫真正發揮作用。我們想在那裡創造一些迴旋餘地。因此,這為 2025 年第三季的契約和左輪手槍創造了額外的空間。這就是真正的激勵因素,真正積極主動地展望未來,確保我們能夠經營業務並執行整體計劃。
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
And the cost of the --
以及成本——
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Forgive me as part -- I'm sorry, Todd?
請原諒我──對不起,托德?
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Just the cost of the amendment as far as rates go and how it's changing maybe our timing of reworking the full agreement?
只是就費率而言,修正案的成本以及它如何變化,也許我們重新制定完整協議的時機?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. A few comments there, Todd. The interest rate does take a tick up. It's always been a variable rate. It was previously plus 650 basis points. This does move us to plus 750, but we felt like that was a market price for the flexibility that we were looking for. In terms of the refinance that we've talked about in the past. We thought of a few things there. One, while there is a tick up in the rate.
是的。托德,有一些評論。利率確實會上漲。它一直是可變利率。先前為加 650 個基點。這確實使我們達到了 750 以上,但我們覺得這就是我們所尋求的靈活性的市場價格。就我們過去談到的再融資而言。我們在那裡想到了一些事情。一是利率上升。
We are optimistic that we get some relief in terms of overall interest rates in the base rate and that, that helps to defray some of that cost. And secondary, realistically, the current credit agreement matures in 2027. And so natural timing both for the improvement in the business that we expect over the coming year as well as getting ahead of that maturity, we would expect to be doing something next year anyway. And so we felt like it was a short-term price to pay for the additional flexibility.
我們樂觀地認為,我們在基本利率的整體利率方面得到了一些緩解,這有助於支付部分成本。其次,實際上,目前的信貸協議將於 2027 年到期。因此,我們覺得這是為了獲得額外的彈性而付出的短期代價。
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Todd Brooks - Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you both.
好的,太好了。謝謝你們倆。
Operator
Operator
Alex Slagle, Jefferies.
亞歷克斯·斯萊格爾,杰弗里斯。
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
All right. Thanks. Hey, guys.
好的。謝謝。嘿,夥計們。
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Alex.
嘿,亞歷克斯。
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Wanted to just ask, I guess, just all the upgrades you've made to the guest experience. And I mean I realize it's a bit of a stew with so many components. But what do you think to-date like what have been the biggest needle movers for you? And then just how to think about the lag before we see these improved metrics translate into traffic in a bigger way?
我想只是想問一下你們對賓客體驗所做的所有升級。我的意思是我意識到這有點像是由這麼多成分組成的燉菜。但您認為迄今為止對您來說最大的推動因素是什麼?那麼,在我們看到這些改進的指標以更大的方式轉換為流量之前,如何考慮滯後呢?
And I know every turnaround different, so it's hard to point to past experience. But it sounds like you're expecting 2025 to be a bit better where things come together, but maybe you can talk through that a little bit.
我知道每次轉變都是不同的,所以很難指出過去的經驗。但聽起來您預計 2025 年一切都會好一些,但也許您可以稍微談談這一點。
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. So first of all, I would say, that the lag I want to just comment on. We saw as we pointed out in the first part of the second quarter comps being marginally positive. And then it seemed like around July 5 because we had a good strong July 4. July 5, things fell apart there for a while in the industry.
當然。首先,我想說的是,我只想評論一下延遲。正如我們在第二季第一部分中指出的那樣,我們看到了略微積極的表現。然後似乎是在 7 月 5 日左右,因為我們在 7 月 4 日度過了一段美好的時光。
And remember all this time as we pointed out in our comments, we continue to make great improvements. In fact, we're now continuing to make better improvements against the industry. And so things went a little bit south there from July 5 until really the end of July. And since that time now we're seeing an uptick from even beginning so of that quarter. And I think that's as a reaction of us really continuing to stay the course.
請記住,正如我們在評論中指出的那樣,我們一直在不斷做出巨大的改進。事實上,我們現在正在繼續針對產業做出更好的改進。因此,從 7 月 5 日到 7 月底,事情的發展有點向南。從那時起,我們就看到比該季度初的情況有所上升。我認為這是我們繼續堅持到底的反應。
And to this first part of your question was around what are the key drivers. I would tell you, there's a whole bunch of them that we pointed out in terms of metrics. But I would tell you that number one is manager table visits, manager presence, manager being out in the dining room and really helping us control the flow of people, which then secondly goes to the host stand in terms of false waits that are basically nonexistent. And we continue to see people in a very orderly fashion and they're happy with that. So those two are tied together.
您問題的第一部分是圍繞什麼是關鍵驅動因素。我想告訴你,我們在指標方面指出了一大堆。但我想告訴你,第一是經理表訪問、經理在場、經理在餐廳裡,真正幫助我們控制人流,其次是到主看台的虛假等待基本上不存在。我們繼續看到人們非常有序,他們對此感到滿意。所以這兩個人是綁在一起的。
The second one is our execution on food on multiple fronts, the quality of delivery of the food and secondly, the timing of the food. So we're getting food out on time and the quality is there. As we noticed on Technomic, we continue to do very well against the industry. We're above the industry in terms of overall food quality, so our guests tell us. So we feel like those are the key drivers here that will really move the needle.
第二個是我們在多個方面對食品的執行,首先是食品交付的質量,其次是食品的時間安排。所以我們準時送食物,而且品質也很好。正如我們在 Technomic 上註意到的那樣,我們在業界繼續表現出色。我們的客人告訴我們,我們的整體食品品質高於行業。因此,我們認為這些是真正能夠推動發展的關鍵驅動因素。
And I'd just go back to the point that, look, we're cautiously optimistic as we go into the third and fourth quarter here with what we're seeing. But as you can imagine, I'm sure we're not the only ones that from July 5 to July 31. It was like, oh s***, excuse my language, what's happening to this business? So it's changed again.
我只想回到這一點,看,當我們進入第三和第四季時,我們對所看到的情況持謹慎樂觀的態度。但正如你可以想像的那樣,我確信我們不是唯一從7 月5 日到7 月31 日發生這種情況的人。 ?於是又變了。
So we're feeling like what we're doing is right and we feel like that the overall reaction is starting to gain traction here. And these things do take time. It's not like we've been at this forever and we do feel like that things are taking hold. Hopefully that's helpful.
所以我們覺得我們正在做的事情是正確的,而且我們覺得整體反應已經開始受到關注。而這些事情確實需要時間。我們並不是一直都這樣,但我們確實感覺到事情正在發生。希望有幫助。
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Yes, that is helpful, and it has been a bit of whiplash for many out there. So good managing through it. And Todd, I guess efforts on just removing costs and complexity and you've highlighted the targeted savings for 2024. And I know you're always looking for opportunities, but where do you think you'll find the next opportunity out there? Are there certain processes or it still look too complex or other big areas of inefficiency that you want to dig into?
是的,這很有幫助,但對許多人來說這有點麻煩。很好地管理它。 Todd,我想您只是在消除成本和複雜性方面所做的努力,您也強調了 2024 年的目標節省。是否有某些流程或它看起來仍然太複雜,或者您想要深入研究其他大範圍的低效率領域?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Alex. I highlighted the actual versus theoretical A versus T. I'm sure you know that term. We've always had that system. If I'm honest, I don't know that it was as fine-tuned and that it was as helpful to our operators as it needs to be. And that's the work that the operations team, our supply chain team has done over the last six months to really refine that. So we think that's a pretty big opportunity.
是的,亞歷克斯。我強調了實際與理論的 A 與 T。我們一直都有這個系統。老實說,我不知道它是否經過瞭如此精細的調整,也不知道它對我們的操作員是否有必要的幫助。這就是營運團隊、我們的供應鏈團隊在過去六個月中所做的工作,以真正完善這一點。所以我們認為這是一個很大的機會。
I also comment on the supply chain and just using our scale, but whether it's consolidating vendors, we've talked in the past about our distribution contract that comes up for renewal next year. We've done a really good job in my opinion capturing the savings. But I think more importantly to your question, as we look forward, there's still plenty in front of us. That well has plenty to continue to produce and the team's done a great job capturing those things.
我還對供應鏈和我們的規模進行了評論,但無論是整合供應商,我們過去都討論過明年續簽的分銷合約。我認為我們在節省成本方面做得非常好。但我認為對於你的問題更重要的是,當我們展望未來時,我們面前仍然有很多事情。該井有足夠的資源可以繼續生產,團隊在捕獲這些資源方面做得非常出色。
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would add to Alex just one more thing is that and Todd commented on this. From a labor perspective, as you know, we've added a lot of investment back into labor. Well, getting those folks from managers all the way down to hourly team members, both front and back, getting them trained, getting them used to executing at the level that we require and get more proficient at it, that's going to help drive our overall labor costs to be more efficient and it will drive labor costs down. And so we feel like we're better staffed than we've been in a long, long time. We feel like we've got much better-quality staff and that, that will also pay dividends into 2025.
我想向亞歷克斯補充一件事,托德對此發表了評論。從勞動力角度來看,如您所知,我們對勞動力進行了大量投資。好吧,讓這些人從經理一直到每小時的團隊成員,無論是前台還是後台,對他們進行培訓,讓他們習慣於按照我們要求的水平執行並變得更加熟練,這將有助於推動我們的整體發展勞動成本變得更加高效,這將推動勞動成本下降。因此,我們覺得我們的人員配備比很長一段時間以來都更好。我們覺得我們擁有素質更高的員工,這也將在 2025 年帶來紅利。
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Alexander Slagle - Analyst
Good point. Thank you.
好點。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Wolf, CL King.
安德魯沃爾夫,CL金。
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Thanks. Good afternoon. I follow-up I want to follow-up to the labor question. And let me just ask, I mean, you staffed up and trained up and yet as the industry environment guests aren't coming to the degree you expected. So how do you philosophically think about taking care of the financials for company as levered as you guys are and making sure you don't backslide on labor? Because I think it's clearly obviously things change in the environment so I assume you're tightening up labor a little. But to your point, you're now got some trained people who can actually deliver what you want to the guests. So just wondering how you your puts and takes on that and how much risk you're willing to take on losing good staff versus the financial side of things?
謝謝。午安.我想跟進勞工問題。讓我問一下,我的意思是,你們配備了人員並接受了培訓,但由於行業環境,客人並沒有達到你們預期的程度。那麼,您如何從哲學角度思考像您這樣槓桿率很高的公司的財務狀況,並確保您不會在勞動力方面倒退?因為我認為環境顯然發生了變化,所以我認為你們正在稍微收緊勞動力。但就您而言,您現在擁有一些訓練有素的人員,他們實際上可以向客人提供您想要的東西。那麼,只是想知道您如何看待這個問題,以及您願意在失去優秀員工與財務方面承擔多少風險?
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure. I'll give a shot at that as best as I can here. When I said that we fully expect 25% to get better because our folks are trained, remember one thing, this industry still has 100% plus turnover. Even though our turnover continues to come down and we're doing I think really well against the industry from a turnover perspective, you're constantly training. So it's really incumbent upon our training teams, our trade team center restaurants as well as our managers.
是的,當然。我會在這裡盡我所能地嘗試一下。當我說我們完全期望 25% 的人會因為我們的員工接受過培訓而變得更好時,請記住一件事,這個行業的營業額仍然是 100% 以上。儘管我們的營業額持續下降,而且從營業額的角度來看,我認為我們的表現與行業相比非常好,但我們仍在不斷進行培訓。因此,我們的培訓團隊、我們的貿易團隊中心餐廳以及我們的經理確實有責任。
And the managers, all that we put in place, remember, there's over 300 kitchen managers in 2023 and now into 2024 that we've added on. It takes a while before they get up to speed and that's really where we're going to start to see that leverage. I've been at this a long time and I'll just tell you that at the end of the day you have to deliver on the promise to our guests on food quality and execution on hospitality. It takes a certain amount of investment to do that and the company had really, as you know, and we've talked about had declined on both of those and that investment we've put back in.
至於管理人員,請記住,我們在 2023 年和現在到 2024 年期間將增加 300 多名廚房管理人員。他們需要一段時間才能跟上進度,這才是我們真正開始看到這種槓桿作用的地方。我已經從事這個工作很長時間了,我只是告訴您,最終您必須兌現對客人的食品品質和招待執行的承諾。這需要一定數量的投資才能做到這一點,正如你所知,公司確實在這方面有所下降,而我們已經重新投入了投資。
Every metric that we delivered messages on today are positive signs of a growing business that traffic is going to follow. And again as I pointed out that during that short window mid-July to the end of July, we really started to see the uplift and now we're seeing that again. Hopefully that will continue. And so we feel like staying the course. Every metric is positive that as we get better and better at this, that it's the right business decision.
我們今天傳遞訊息的每一個指標都是業務成長的正面跡象,流量將隨之成長。正如我再次指出的那樣,在 7 月中旬到 7 月底的短暫窗口期間,我們確實開始看到經濟成長,現在我們又看到了這種情況。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。所以我們想堅持到底。每個指標都是正面的,隨著我們在這方面做得越來越好,這是正確的業務決策。
Now, look, at the end of the day, if the world fell apart, of course, we're going to think about the world differently. But right now, I've been doing this a long time, I think we're doing the right things. And if I wasn't seeing the signals like I am with just things like overall satisfaction scores, our team member engagement year-over-year is just phenomenal improvements. So we've got a good culture out there. We've got people feeling generally good about what we're doing. They're the ones executing it. Our guests are responding with all the positive metrics that we're seeing. So we think we're doing the right thing for the shareholders and for the brand long-term.
現在,看看,到最後,如果世界分崩離析,我們當然會對世界有不同的看法。但現在,我已經這樣做很久了,我認為我們正在做正確的事情。如果我沒有看到像我這樣的整體滿意度分數等訊號,那麼我們團隊成員的敬業度逐年提升就是驚人的。所以我們有良好的文化。人們對我們所做的事情總體感覺良好。他們是執行它的人。我們的客人對我們所看到的所有積極指標做出了回應。因此,我們認為我們正在為股東和品牌的長期利益做正確的事情。
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Okay. Thank you. Appreciate that explanation. And just this might be for you Todd a housekeeping. The 2.2%, the comp benefit from the loyalty change. Is that in the actual sales of the restaurant line? Is that in the $6 million plus number in sales?
好的。謝謝。欣賞這個解釋。托德,這可能就是你的家務事。 2.2%,公司從忠誠度變化中受益。這是餐廳的實際銷售嗎?這是在 600 萬美元以上的銷售額嗎?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Andy, you're interpreting that right. The rationale that writer often has always had, I think this makes sense. When the revenue is deferred, it comes out of that line so to speak. And so when there is breakage, it goes back into that restaurant revenue line.
是的,安迪,你的理解是正確的。作家經常有的道理,我認為這是有道理的。當收入被遞延時,可以說它是從這條線出來的。因此,當出現破損時,它會重新回到餐廳的收入線。
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Okay. So it's a pure flow through down to the profits?
好的。那麼這是一個純粹的利潤流向嗎?
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Correct. That's the right way to think about it.
正確的。這是正確的思考方式。
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Andrew Wolf - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mark Smith, Lake Street Capital.
馬克史密斯,湖街資本。
Mark Smith - Analyst
Mark Smith - Analyst
Hi, guys. First question for me, just housekeeping. Todd, can you just walk us through again the outlook on selling expense this year? And I think you gave some 2025 outlook as well.
嗨,大家好。我的第一個問題是家事服務。托德,您能否再次向我們介紹今年銷售費用的前景?我認為您也給了 2025 年的一些展望。
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Mark. We're still expecting to get right around $38 million on selling. Obviously, that's if you look at the first half of the year and the second half of the year, it's a step down in terms of run rate in the second half of the year, but that's supported by what G.J. walked through in the prepared remarks on the efficiency that the marketing team was able to achieve.
是的,馬克。我們仍然預計銷售收入約為 3800 萬美元。顯然,如果你看看今年上半年和下半年,下半年的運行率會有所下降,但這得到了 G.J. 的支持。在準備好的評論中詳細介紹了行銷團隊能夠實現的效率。
So think of $38 million in terms of total year. And as we think about it now, we think that's probably split pretty evenly between Q3 and Q4. Building though on that, we did share a perspective on 2025 that again we'll fine tune this as we get closer to next year. But we see a path to $30 million next year again based on those efficiency learnings that give us confidence that we can still drive traffic based on what we proved in the first half of the year but at a much more efficient cost.
因此,請考慮全年總額為 3800 萬美元。正如我們現在考慮的那樣,我們認為第三季和第四季的情況可能相當均勻。在此基礎上,我們確實分享了對 2025 年的看法,隨著明年的臨近,我們將再次對此進行微調。但基於這些效率方面的經驗教訓,我們明年將再次看到 3000 萬美元的目標,這些經驗教訓讓我們相信,我們仍然可以根據上半年所證明的情況來推動流量增長,但成本要高效得多。
Mark Smith - Analyst
Mark Smith - Analyst
Okay. And my second question maybe fits in with that as well. Just as we look at the competitive environment, maybe other casual diners hitting similar price points, especially in Burger. Are there still levers that you can pull within that marketing to drive that traffic? And how are you telling the story and can continue to tell that story to really differentiate yourselves from peers that are maybe hitting similar price points?
好的。我的第二個問題也許也符合這一點。正如我們看到的競爭環境一樣,也許其他休閒餐廳的價格也類似,尤其是在漢堡。您是否仍可以在行銷中利用槓桿來推動流量?您如何講述這個故事,並如何繼續講述這個故事,以真正使自己與可能達到相似價格點的同行區分開來?
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hey, Mark, well, one of the things that we have been working on and talking about is being much more targeted in our communication to our guests. And so as we revamp the loyalty platform, we now have a better way to communicate on a regular basis to our loyalty members what's going on, what are the latest LTOs, what's the surprise and the like on and on and on.
嘿,馬克,好吧,我們一直在努力和討論的事情之一就是在與客人的溝通中更有針對性。因此,當我們改進忠誠度平台時,我們現在有了更好的方式來定期向我們的忠誠會員傳達最新情況、最新的 LTO 是什麼、有什麼驚喜等等。
In fact, we longer term want to be very personalized knowing what they how they dine with us and what their expectations are, and we could be much more targeted. And that's a very efficient way to be able to do it. We continue to be involved in the communities. Red Robin was built on being a local store marketer and we are gaining really, really good traction by being able to communicate.
事實上,從長遠來看,我們希望非常個性化地了解他們如何與我們一起用餐以及他們的期望是什麼,並且我們可以更有針對性。這是一種非常有效的方法。我們繼續參與社區活動。 Red Robin 是一家本地商店行銷商,我們透過溝通獲得了非常非常好的吸引力。
Granted, it's a longer-term view, but this company has done that well for many, many years, went away from it, we brought it back and we are seeing great traction there. And of course, as we pointed out in our different media tests, this targeted approach of social, digital and search along with LSM and PR, let's not forget PR because we are getting a lot of PR these days are all good ways to be able to move the business forward.
誠然,這是一個更長遠的觀點,但這家公司多年來一直做得很好,放棄了它,我們把它帶回來,我們在那裡看到了巨大的吸引力。當然,正如我們在不同的媒體測試中指出的那樣,這種有針對性的社交、數位和搜尋方法以及LSM 和PR,我們不要忘記PR,因為這些天我們獲得了大量的PR,這些都是很好的方法推動業務向前發展。
And so with the tests we feel really good about being able to do that. And again, that's the way we are thinking about it today. We will continue to inform that as we move forward depending on what we are seeing right now and again point out the fact that we are feeling good about the direction today of what we are seeing here in the near-term.
因此,透過測試,我們對能夠做到這一點感到非常高興。再說一次,這就是我們今天思考這個問題的方式。我們將根據我們現在所看到的情況繼續前進,並再次指出這樣一個事實,即我們對今天所看到的近期情況的方向感覺良好。
Mark Smith - Analyst
Mark Smith - Analyst
Excellent. Thank you.
出色的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.
謝謝。我們的問答環節結束了。我想重新發言以徵求進一步的意見或結束意見。
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
G.J. Hart - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you guys very much for being with us tonight, and we look forward to next quarter and reporting out to you and appreciate your time today. Thank you.
好吧,非常感謝你們今晚與我們在一起,我們期待著下個季度並向你們報告,並感謝你們今天抽出時間。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。