(ROP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. The Roper Technologies Conference Call will now begin. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    早安. Roper Technologies 電話會議現在開始。今天的通話正在錄音。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Zack Moxcey, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Zack Moxcey。請繼續,先生。

  • Zack Moxcey - VP of IR

    Zack Moxcey - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you all for joining us as we discuss the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results for Roper Technologies. Joining me on the call this morning are Neil Hunn, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jason Conley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Brandon Cross, Vice President and Principal Accounting Officer; and Shannon O'Callaghan, Vice President of Finance.

    早安,感謝大家加入我們,我們將討論 Roper Technologies 的第四季和 2023 年全年財務表現。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Neil Hunn; Jason Conley,執行副總裁兼財務長; Brandon Cross,副總裁兼首席會計長;奧卡拉漢 (Shannon O'Callaghan),財務副總裁。

  • Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our financial results. The press release also includes replay information for today's call. We have prepared slides to accompany today's call, which are available through the webcast and are also available on our website.

    今天早些時候,我們發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了我們的財務表現。新聞稿還包括今天電話會議的重播資訊。我們準備了伴隨今天電話會議的幻燈片,這些幻燈片可以透過網路廣播獲取,也可以在我們的網站上取得。

  • Now if you please turn to Page 2. We begin with our safe harbor statement. During the course of today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties as described on this page, in our press release and in our SEC filings. You should listen to today's call in the context of that information.

    現在請翻到第 2 頁。我們從安全港聲明開始。在今天的電話會議期間,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,這些聲明受到本頁、我們的新聞稿和 SEC 文件中所述的風險和不確定性的影響。您應該在該資訊的背景下收聽今天的電話會議。

  • And now please turn to Page 3. Today, we will discuss our results, primarily on adjusted non-GAAP and continuing operations basis. For the fourth quarter, the difference between our GAAP results and adjusted results consists of the following items: amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, the financial impacts associated with our minority investments in Indicor and Certinia and lastly, transaction-related expenses associated with our completed acquisitions. Reconciliations can be found in our press release and in the appendix of this presentation on our website.

    現在請翻到第 3 頁。今天,我們將主要討論調整後的非公認會計準則和持續經營業務的結果。第四季度,我們的GAAP 業績與調整後業績之間的差異包括以下項目:與收購相關的無形資產攤銷、與我們對Indicor 和Certinia 的少數股權投資相關的財務影響,以及與我們的交易相關的費用。完成收購。調節表可以在我們的新聞稿和我們網站上的本簡報的附錄中找到。

  • And now if you please turn to Page 4, I will hand the call over to Neil. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions from our telephone participants. Neil?

    現在請翻到第 4 頁,我會將電話轉交給尼爾。在我們準備好的發言之後,我們將回答電話參與者的問題。尼爾?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Zack, and thanks to everyone for joining our call. We're looking forward to sharing our quite good 2023 4th quarter and full year results with you this morning.

    謝謝你,扎克,也謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我們期待今天早上與您分享我們相當不錯的 2023 年第四季和全年業績。

  • As we turn to Page 4, let's look at today's agenda. This morning, I'll start by walking through our full year highlights and then we turn to commenting on our most recent acquisition, ProCare Solutions. Jason will then go through our quarterly results, both in aggregate and at the segment level, share our annual results and review our strong balance sheet position. Then I'll pick up and discuss our segment level annual results, our 2024 outlook, wrap up and turn to your questions. So let's go ahead and get started.

    當我們翻到第四頁時,讓我們來看看今天的議程。今天早上,我將首先回顧我們的全年亮點,然後我們將評論我們最近收購的 ProCare Solutions。然後,傑森將全面審查我們的季度業績,分享我們的年度業績,並審查我們強勁的資產負債表狀況。然後我將討論並討論我們的部門級年度業績、2024 年展望,總結並回答你們的問題。那麼就讓我們開始吧。

  • Next slide, please. As we turn to Page 5, the 2 key takeaways for today's call are: first, we delivered a very strong 2023. And second, we remain well positioned and are carrying positive momentum into 2024. As we look back on the full year, we're proud of what the organization accomplished. From a financial perspective, we delivered 15% revenue growth, 16% EBITDA growth and 32% free cash flow growth with free cash flow margins at 32%.

    請下一張投影片。當我們翻到第5 頁時,今天電話會議的兩個關鍵要點是:首先,我們交付了非常強勁的2023 年。其次,我們仍然處於有利位置,並在2024 年保持積極勢頭。當我們回顧全年時,我們我們為該組織所取得的成就感到自豪。從財務角度來看,我們實現了 15% 的收入成長、16% 的 EBITDA 成長和 32% 的自由現金流成長,自由現金流利潤率為 32%。

  • Our total revenue growth of 15% was underpinned with 8% organic revenue growth. Jason will cover this in a few minutes, but Q4 was strong as well with 13% total revenue growth and 8% organic revenue growth. Also during the year, we deployed $2.1 billion in the high-quality vertical software acquisitions, highlighted by our bolt-on acquisitions of Syntellis and Replicon. As we all know, last year was a challenged year relative to available acquisition opportunities, given that I'm super proud of our team's ability to grow through the market conditions and successfully convert 2 outstanding value-creation M&A opportunities.

    我們 15% 的總收入成長得益於 8% 的有機收入成長。 Jason 將在幾分鐘內介紹這一點,但第四季也表現強勁,總營收成長 13%,有機收入成長 8%。同樣在這一年中,我們部署了 21 億美元用於高品質垂直軟體收購,其中對 Syntellis 和 Replicon 的補強收購就是亮點。眾所周知,去年相對於可用的收購機會來說是充滿挑戰的一年,因為我對我們團隊在市場條件下成長並成功轉化兩個傑出的價值創造併購機會的能力感到非常自豪。

  • Given all this, we entered this year with positive momentum. We continue to see strong demand for our mission-critical solutions. As a reminder, each of our businesses is a leader in their respective market and delivers system of record, network critical or vital and/or life-saving technologies. As a result, we continue to see strong demand for our solutions. Also, as we head into 2024, we have meaningful contributions from our recent acquisitions, Syntellis, Replicon and Procare. It is important to highlight these additions to our portfolio of businesses also improved the underlying quality of our enterprise in terms of reoccurring revenue mix and organic growth profile.

    鑑於這一切,我們以積極的勢頭進入了今年。我們繼續看到對我們的關鍵任務解決方案的強勁需求。謹此提醒,我們的每項業務都是各自市場的領導者,並提供記錄系統、網路關鍵或重要和/或救生技術。因此,我們繼續看到對我們的解決方案的強勁需求。此外,在邁入 2024 年之際,我們最近的收購 Syntellis、Replicon 和 Procare 也為我們做出了有意義的貢獻。重要的是要強調,我們業務組合的這些新增內容也提高了我們企業在經常性收入組合和有機成長方面的基本品質。

  • Finally, we continue to be very active in the M&A market, an environment that we expect to be notably improved in 2024 and with a strong balance sheet and a large pipeline of attractive opportunities. So a strong '23 and solid momentum, both organic and inorganic behind us as we enter 2024.

    最後,我們繼續在併購市場上保持非常活躍的態度,我們預計這一環境將在 2024 年顯著改善,並擁有強勁的資產負債表和大量有吸引力的機會。因此,當我們進入 2024 年時,強大的 23 年動力和堅實的動力(有機和無機)都在我們身後。

  • Now please turn to the next page, Page 6, where we'll discuss our most recent acquisition, Procare Solutions. Procare Solutions is a fantastic addition to the Roper portfolio. Let's start with the fundamentals. We're paying $1.75 billion, net of $110 million tax benefit for the business. We expect ProCare to contribute about $260 million of revenue and $95 million of EBITDA for the 12 months ended Q1 '25.

    現在請翻到下一頁,第 6 頁,我們將討論我們最近收購的 Procare Solutions。 Procare 解決方案是 Roper 產品組合的絕佳補充。讓我們從基礎知識開始。我們支付了 17.5 億美元,扣除 1.1 億美元的企業稅收優惠。我們預計 ProCare 在截至 2025 年第一季的 12 個月內將貢獻約 2.6 億美元的營收和 9,500 萬美元的 EBITDA。

  • Procare will be accretive to our free cash flow in '24 and to our adjusted DEPS in '25. We'll fund the acquisition with a portion of a $3.5 billion revolver and will report Procare in our Application Software segment and expected deal to close this quarter. Procare meets all our long-standing acquisition criteria, leader in a smaller market, delivers mission-critical verticalized software solutions, competes based on customer intimacy, operates an asset-light business model and is led by a skilled, passionate leadership team.

    Procare 將增加我們 24 年的自由現金流和 25 年調整後的 DEPS。我們將用價值 35 億美元的左輪手槍的一部分為此次收購提供資金,並將在我們的應用軟體部門報告 Procare,預計交易將於本季度完成。 Procare 符合我們所有長期的收購標準,是較小市場的領導者,提供任務關鍵型垂直化軟體解決方案,基於客戶親密度進行競爭,經營輕資產業務模式,並由熟練、熱情的領導團隊領導。

  • What is incrementally different for us is the maturing leader nature of this company. As we outlined during our Investor Day last year, our corporate strategy leans on implementing 2 modest improvements. First, continue to improve our long-term sustainable organic growth rate; and second, capture more value from our capital deployment capacity.

    對我們來說,逐漸不同的是這家公司日漸成熟的領導者本質。正如我們在去年的投資者日期間所概述的那樣,我們的企業策略依賴於實施兩項適度的改進。第一,持續提高我們長期可持續的有機成長率;第二,從我們的資本配置能力中獲得更多價值。

  • Relative to additional capital deployment value capture, we are focusing on doing a higher proportion of bolt-on activity as evidenced by last year's capital deployment record and adding higher growth or maturing leader business profiles to our enterprise. Procare is a prototypical maturing leader archetype, meeting all our long-standing criteria that I mentioned above but a structurally faster growth business that possesses the opportunity to improve margins as the top line scales. For Procare, we expect mid-teens top line growth with improving margins from an already strong position for the years to come. Let's talk about what the company does.

    相對於額外的資本部署價值捕獲,我們專注於進行更高比例的補充活動,正如去年的資本部署記錄所證明的那樣,並為我們的企業增加更高的成長或成熟的領先業務概況。 Procare 是一個典型的成熟領導者原型,滿足我上面提到的所有長期標準,但結構上成長較快,擁有隨著收入規模擴大而提高利潤率的機會。對於 Procare,我們預計未來幾年的營收將實現十幾歲左右的成長,利潤率將在本已強勁的基礎上有所提高。我們來談談公司是做什麼的。

  • Procare is the leading provider of mission-critical and purpose-built software to 37,000 owners and operators of early childhood education centers which they use to run their business. The software provides all the needed functionality to run the childcare center, ranging from parent and family engagement, staff and teacher scheduling, classroom management, tuition billing and payment processing. The market itself is quite attractive and in the midst of a long-term secular tailwind of young dual-income families seeking higher levels of early child education versus daycare.

    Procare 是領先的任務關鍵型和專用軟體供應商,為 37,000 名幼兒教育中心所有者和營運商提供用於營運業務的軟體。該軟體提供了營運托兒中心所需的所有功能,包括家長和家庭參與、員工和教師調度、課堂管理、學費計費和付款處理。市場本身相當有吸引力,並且處於年輕雙收入家庭尋求更高水平的早期兒童教育而不是日託的長期順風之中。

  • In addition, like most industries, this one is undergoing long-term tech enablement. Given these factors, this market is growing annually in the low double-digit area. As mentioned, Procare is the leading player with a 1.5x role market share advantage in this space given their super compelling value proposition that combines both software and the integrated payments capabilities. Given this, Procare has very high gross retention and compelling net retention as well.

    此外,與大多數行業一樣,這一行業正在經歷長期的技術支援。考慮到這些因素,該市場每年以低兩位數的速度成長。如前所述,Procare 是該領域的領先企業,擁有 1.5 倍的角色市場份額優勢,因為其結合了軟體和整合支付功能的超級引人注目的價值主張。有鑑於此,Procare 擁有非常高的毛留存率和引人注目的淨留存率。

  • Finally, from our extensive due diligence of the business, we're encouraged by the fact that broker has multiple strategic and operating pathways available to deliver mid-teens growth and long-term margin expansion. Net-net, this is a highly compelling value creation opportunity for Roper and our shareholders and to Joanne, your leadership team and all the Procare family, welcome to Roper.

    最後,透過我們對業務的廣泛盡職調查,我們對經紀商擁有多種策略和營運途徑可實現中雙位數成長和長期利潤率擴張這一事實感到鼓舞。 Net-net,對於 Roper 和我們的股東以及 Joanne、您的領導團隊和所有 Procare 家族來說,這是一個非常引人注目的價值創造機會,歡迎來到 Roper。

  • So with that, Jason, let me turn the call over to you, so you can walk through our fourth quarter and full year results as well as our very strong financial position. Jason?

    因此,傑森,讓我將電話轉給您,以便您可以了解我們第四季度和全年的業績以及我們非常強勁的財務狀況。傑森?

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • Great. Thanks, Neil. I'll walk through the enterprise and segment results for Q4 and enterprise results for the full year, along with a review of our balance sheet. Starting with Q4 on Slide 7. We have an excellent finish to a strong year. Revenue of over $1.6 billion was 13% over prior year, led by 8% organic growth with acquisitions adding 4 points and less than a point of currency benefit.

    偉大的。謝謝,尼爾。我將介紹第四季度的企業和部門業績以及全年的企業業績,並對我們的資產負債表進行審查。從幻燈片 7 上的第四季開始。我們為這一強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。營收超過 16 億美元,比上年成長 13%,其中有機成長 8%,收購增加了 4 個百分點,貨幣收益不到 1 個百分點。

  • Organic outperformance was led by our TEP segment, highlighted by Neptune and Verathon. Gross margin of 69.7% was down 30 basis points versus prior year, given a higher mix coming from our TEP segment. EBITDA grew 11% to $659 million with EBITDA margin coming in at a solid 40.8%. With the offsetting impact of interest and taxes, this translated into debt's growth of 11% to $4.37, above our guidance range of $4.28 to $4.32. Also from a cash perspective free cash flow finished strong at $596 million, up 30% over prior year. This was in line with our expectations with a good renewal season across our software businesses.

    我們的 TEP 部門表現出色,其中 Neptune 和 Verathon 尤為突出。由於我們的 TEP 部門的產品組合較高,毛利率為 69.7%,比前一年下降了 30 個基點。 EBITDA 成長 11%,達到 6.59 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 40.8%。在利息和稅收的抵銷影響下,債務增加 11% 至 4.37 美元,高於我們 4.28 美元至 4.32 美元的指導範圍。同樣從現金角度來看,自由現金流強勁,達到 5.96 億美元,比上年增長 30%。這符合我們的預期,我們的軟體業務續訂季表現良好。

  • We turn to Slide 8, I'll briefly click into the segment performance in Q4. Application Software delivered revenue growth of 15% over prior year to $852 million, with organic growth contributing 7 points and the balance coming primarily from our bolt-on acquisitions of Syntellis and Replicon. EBITDA margin of 43.2% in the quarter was below prior year's high watermark of 45.6%, which as we discussed last year was driven by lower incentive-based compensation.

    我們轉向投影片 8,我將簡要介紹第四季度的細分市場表現。應用軟體的營收比去年成長 15%,達到 8.52 億美元,其中有機成長貢獻了 7 個百分點,其餘部分主要來自我們對 Syntellis 和 Replicon 的補充收購。本季 EBITDA 利潤率為 43.2%,低於去年同期 45.6% 的高水位,正如我們去年討論的那樣,這是由於基於激勵的薪酬較低所致。

  • Network software was up 3% and $363 million with EBITDA 10% to $208 million. As we have discussed before, our freight matching businesses are navigating a drawdown of carriers following exceptional marketplace growth over 2021 and 2022, which is mixing down the growth rate for the segment. However, our business leader at DAT and Load Link have aligned the cost base with reduced carrier subscribers to still drive solid EBITDA growth in the quarter.

    網路軟體成長 3%,達到 3.63 億美元,EBITDA 成長 10%,達到 2.08 億美元。正如我們之前所討論的,隨著 2021 年和 2022 年市場的出色成長,我們的貨運匹配業務正在應對承運人的縮減,這降低了該細分市場的成長率。然而,我們 DAT 和 Load Link 的業務負責人已將成本基礎與營運商訂戶數量減少相結合,以繼續推動本季 EBITDA 的穩健成長。

  • Our TEP segment grew by 17% in the quarter to $399 million, with EBITDA up 13% to $134 million. Growth was led by exceptional performance at Neptune with continued increasing demand for ultrasonic technologies and overall favorable market conditions. Also, Verathon continued its remarkable growth with strength in single-use products across laryngoscope and brochoscope. EBITDA margin of 33.6% was down from prior year, given some onetime investments and incentive compensation in the quarter.

    我們的 TEP 部門本季成長 17%,達到 3.99 億美元,EBITDA 成長 13%,達到 1.34 億美元。成長得益於 Neptune 的卓越業績、對超音波技術的需求持續成長以及整體有利的市場條件。此外,Verathon 憑藉在喉鏡和支氣管鏡等一次性產品方面的實力,繼續實現顯著增長。考慮到本季的一些一次性投資和激勵薪酬,EBITDA 利潤率為 33.6%,較去年同期有所下降。

  • Turning to Slide 9, I'll walk through our full year 2023 performance. As Neil has mentioned, revenue was just under $6.2 billion, up 15% over prior year, with organic growth of 8% and acquisitions contributing 7 points, mainly in frontline and Syntellis. Looking at a 3-year revenue CAGR on this slide, similar to 2023, it's also at 15%. Further, the organic -- average organic growth rate over this 3-year period has been about 8%. Though as Neil mentioned, we benefited from some market conditions over that time period.

    轉向投影片 9,我將介紹我們 2023 年全年的表現。正如 Neil 所提到的,營收略低於 62 億美元,比上年成長 15%,有機成長 8%,收購貢獻了 7 個百分點,主要是在前線和 Syntellis。從這張投影片上 3 年的收入複合年增長率來看,與 2023 年類似,也是 15%。此外,這三年期間的平均有機成長率約為 8%。儘管正如尼爾所提到的,我們從那段時間的一些市場狀況中受益。

  • EBITDA of just over $2.5 billion was up 16% over the prior year, yielding EBITDA margin of 40.6%. Our 3-year EBITDA over this period was also up 16%. So the story remains the same at Roper. We own and continually grow a portfolio of high gross margin businesses, and generally convert EBITDA growth to EBITDA in the 45% range, which allows for ample investment back into the business for future sustainable growth.

    EBITDA 略高於 25 億美元,較上年成長 16%,EBITDA 利潤率為 40.6%。在此期間,我們的 3 年 EBITDA 也成長了 16%。因此,羅珀的故事仍然如此。我們擁有並持續發展高毛利率業務的投資組合,通常將 EBITDA 成長轉化為 45% 範圍內的 EBITDA,從而為業務未來的可持續成長提供充足的投資。

  • Free cash flow for the year was just shy of $2 billion. which represents a 32% margin and is going Stanley up 32% over 2022. Full year contribution from our frontline acquisition and excellent performance across the enterprise drove this result. Underpinned by strong renewals, favorable DSO and improving inventory turns. Of note, our net working capital as a percent of annualized revenue was negative 19% in Q4, which is a new record for Roper. Importantly, over a 3-year period, we have compounded cash flow at 16%. Our consistent focus on growing cash flow and the strength of our new portfolio following our divestitures demonstrates a solid base from which to continue our long-term growth algorithm. To that end, we expect free cash flow margin to be 30% or more in 2024.

    今年的自由現金流略低於 20 億美元。這意味著 32% 的利潤率,將使 Stanley 比 2022 年增長 32%。我們一線收購的全年貢獻和整個企業的出色表現推動了這一結果。得益於強勁的續訂、有利的 DSO 和不斷改善的庫存週轉率。值得注意的是,第四季我們的淨營運資本佔年化收入的百分比為負 19%,這是羅博的新紀錄。重要的是,在 3 年期間,我們的現金流量複合成長率為 16%。我們對現金流成長的一貫關注以及剝離後新投資組合的實力證明了我們繼續長期成長演算法的堅實基礎。為此,我們預計 2024 年自由現金流利潤率將達到 30% 或更高。

  • With that, we can flip to Slide 10 to discuss our strong financial position. From a liquidity standpoint, we finished the year with $3.14 billion available on our revolver with over $200 million of cash. Regarding leverage, we brought down net debt-to-EBITDA from 2.7x at the beginning of 2023 to a year-end figure of 2.4x despite deploying $2.1 billion towards acquisitions. We expect to close on Procare later in Q1 and will utilize our revolver to fund the transaction. So this will be our pro forma leverage to about 3x. Our solid balance sheet, coupled with strong cash generation gives us capacity to deploy $4 billion or more of capital while remaining committed to our solid investment-grade rating.

    這樣,我們就可以翻到投影片 10 來討論我們強大的財務狀況。從流動性的角度來看,我們的左輪手槍今年結束時擁有 31.4 億美元的可用資金,其中現金超過 2 億美元。在槓桿方面,儘管部署了 21 億美元用於收購,但我們仍將淨債務與 EBITDA 比率從 2023 年初的 2.7 倍降至年底的 2.4 倍。我們預計在第一季稍後完成 Procare 交易,並將利用我們的左輪手槍為交易提供資金。因此,我們的預期槓桿率約為 3 倍。我們穩健的資產負債表,加上強勁的現金產生能力,使我們有能力部署 40 億美元或更多的資本,同時繼續致力於我們穩健的投資級評級。

  • Since our October call, deal activity has demonstrably increased with a corresponding lift in asset quality. That said, our market optimism remains balanced by our disciplined process and patient posture.

    自從我們十月份的電話會議以來,交易活動明顯增加,資產品質也相應提高。也就是說,我們的市場樂觀情緒與我們嚴格的流程和耐心的態度保持平衡。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back over to Neil to talk about our full year segment performance and indications for 2024. Neil?

    接下來,我將把電話轉回給尼爾,談談我們的全年分部業績和 2024 年的跡象。尼爾?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jason. As we turn to Page 12, let's look back on the year for Application Software segment. Total revenues grew 21% and organic revenues grew 6% to $3.19 billion, while EBITDA margins remained strong at 43.7%. Within the segment, results were consistent with strength at Deltek, Aderant, Vertafore, Strata and Frontline.

    謝謝,傑森。當我們翻到第 12 頁時,讓我們回顧一下這一年的應用軟體領域。總營收成長 21%,有機營收成長 6%,達到 31.9 億美元,而 EBITDA 利潤率仍維持在 43.7% 的強勁水準。在該細分市場中,結果與 Deltek、Aderant、Vertafore、Strata 和 Frontline 的實力一致。

  • Deltek continued to see strong gains in our SaaS solutions, especially in the private sector markets, as discussed throughout the year, the Deltek market was tempered given all the uncertainty regarding government spending, notwithstanding Deltek delivered mid-single-digit organic growth for the year. In addition, they continue to innovate and add capabilities during times of uncertainty, which is a hallmark of Roper strategy, highlighted by the bolt-ons of Replicon and ProPricer. ProPricer smaller transaction, about $80 million purchase price, that closed late last year and delivers the leading contract pricing solutions and software for government contractors and federal agencies and ideal strategic fit for Deltek's Costpoint product family.

    Deltek 的SaaS 解決方案繼續強勁增長,尤其是在私營部門市場,正如全年討論的那樣,儘管Deltek 全年實現了中個位數的有機增長,但鑑於政府支出的所有不確定性,Deltek 市場受到了影響。此外,他們在不確定時期繼續創新並增加功能,這是 Roper 策略的標誌,Replicon 和 ProPricer 的附加功能突顯了這一點。 ProPricer 規模較小,收購價格約為 8000 萬美元,於去年年底完成,為政府承包商和聯邦機構提供領先的合約定價解決方案和軟體,並且非常適合 Deltek 的 Costpoint 產品系列。

  • Aderant was just amazing last year. They had record bookings and significant adoption of their anchor SaaS solutions and add-on products. Also, Aderant is one of the leaders within Roper, and the legal software market as it relates to productizing generative AI solutions within their product stack. Great job by Chris, Rafi and the entire team at Aderant.

    阿德蘭特去年的表現真是太棒了。他們的預訂量創歷史新高,其主打 SaaS 解決方案和附加產品的採用率也很高。此外,Aderant 是 Roper 和法律軟體市場的領導者之一,因為它涉及在其產品堆疊中生產生成人工智慧解決方案。 Chris、Rafi 和 Aderant 的整個團隊做得很好。

  • Continuing on, Vertafore was solid with strong ARR gains throughout the year. Additionally, Vertafore made great strides with our product strategy deployment and the MGA systems bolt-on is trending well ahead of our investment case. [Strata] also was quite good last year, both in terms of organic ARR gains and their acquisition and integration work associated with Syntellis. Finally, frontline executed well, delivering strong retention and cash flow during the year. As I mentioned earlier, we will report Procare solutions in this segment and expected deal to close this quarter. As it relates to our 2024 outlook for this segment, we expect to see mid-single-digit organic revenue growth.

    繼續來看,Vertafore 全年表現穩健,ARR 成長強勁。此外,Vertafore 在我們的產品策略部署方面取得了長足的進步,MGA 系統的螺栓連接趨勢遠遠領先於我們的投資案例。 [Strata] 去年的表現也相當不錯,無論是在有機 ARR 收益還是與 Syntellis 相關的收購和整合工作方面。最後,一線部門執行良好,在這一年中實現了強勁的保留率和現金流。正如我之前提到的,我們將報告該領域的 Procare 解決方案,並預計交易將於本季完成。由於這與我們對該細分市場的 2024 年前景相關,我們預計有機收入將實現中個位數成長。

  • Please turn with us to Page 13. Full year organic revenue for our Network segment grew 5% to $1.44 billion and margins were strong at 55.2%. We'll start with our freight matching businesses, DAT and Loadlink which both grew in the year despite the year-long muted freight market conditions.

    請隨我們翻到第 13 頁。我們網路部門的全年有機收入成長了 5%,達到 14.4 億美元,利潤率高達 55.2%。我們將從我們的貨運匹配業務 DAT 和 Loadlink 開始,儘管貨運市場狀況全年低迷,但這些業務在這一年中均實現了成長。

  • Similar to that of Deltek, both businesses continue to innovate during the sluggish market with particularly interesting Gen AI innovations at DAT to help combat industry fraud. Pipeline delivered record bookings and had very strong customer retention and expansion activity, leading to strong ARR growth.

    與 Deltek 類似,兩家公司在市場低迷期間繼續創新,在 DAT 上進行了特別有趣的 Gen AI 創新,以幫助打擊行業詐欺。 Pipeline 交付了創紀錄的預訂量,並擁有非常強勁的客戶保留和擴張活動,導致 ARR 強勁增長。

  • Foundry, our postproduction media and entertainment software business muscle through the year given the writers and actor strikes and made meaningful progress in the transition to a full subscription revenue model. Finally, our alternate site healthcare businesses, MHA, SoftWriters and SHP, were strong throughout the year as census levels in senior care facilities improved. As it relates to our full year 2024 guide for the segment, we expect to see low single-digit organic revenue growth based on the expectation of continued muted freight market conditions but with continued strong EBITDA margin performance.

    由於編劇和演員罷工,我們的後製媒體和娛樂軟體業務 Foundry 在這一年中表現強勁,並在向完全訂閱收入模式的過渡方面取得了有意義的進展。最後,隨著高級護理機構人口普查水準的提高,我們的備用站點醫療保健業務(MHA、SoftWriters 和 SHP)全年表現強勁。由於這與我們對該細分市場的 2024 年全年指南相關,我們預計,基於貨運市場狀況持續低迷的預期,但 EBITDA 利潤率表現持續強勁,我們預計有機收入將實現低個位數增長。

  • Now please turn to Page 14, and let's review our TEPs segment's results. Organic revenues for the year grew 15% to $1.55 billion and EBITDA margins remain consistent at 35.3%. As we look back over the year, we entered the year with a high degree of supply chain uncertainty. During the year, the vast majority of these uncertainties were resolved, and our businesses did a tremendous job of capturing the opportunity. As we exit '23 and look to '24, we do not see meaningful supply chain constraints.

    現在請翻到第 14 頁,讓我們回顧一下 TEP 部分的結果。今年的有機收入成長了 15%,達到 15.5 億美元,EBITDA 利潤率維持在 35.3%。回顧這一年,我們進入了供應鏈高度不確定性的一年。這一年裡,絕大多數不確定性都得到了解決,我們的企業在抓住機會方面做出了巨大的努力。當我們退出 23 世紀並展望 24 世紀時,我們沒有看到有意義的供應鏈限制。

  • As usual, we'll start with Neptune, our water meter and technology business. Neptune was just great and continues to see strong demand and momentum for the residential and commercial ultrasonic or static meters and increasing adoption of their meter data management software. We remain bullish about Neptune and the market in which they compete.

    像往常一樣,我們將從海王星開始,我們的水錶和技術業務。 Neptune 非常棒,並且繼續看到對住宅和商業超音波或靜態儀表的強勁需求和勢頭,並且越來越多地採用其儀表數據管理軟體。我們仍然看好海王星及其競爭的市場。

  • Verathon was awesome as well for the year. Verathon was strong across all 3 of their product families: Ultrasonic, Bladder volume measurement, video-assisted innovation and single-use bronchoscopy. As a reminder, Verathon's reoccurring single-use offerings now make up about 55% of the business' annual revenue stream. Just an amazing product and business execution journey to both scale and improve the underlying quality of the business. Finally, our RF product businesses, Inovonics and rf IDEAS, did a terrific job managing through their supply chain challenges and delivered very strong 2023 financial performance.

    Verathon 今年也表現出色。 Verathon 在所有 3 個產品系列中都很強大:超音波、膀胱體積測量、視訊輔助創新和一次性支氣管鏡檢查。需要提醒的是,Verathon 的重複使用一次性產品目前約佔該公司年收入流的 55%。這是一次令人驚嘆的產品和業務執行之旅,既可以擴大規模,又可以提高業務的基本品質。最後,我們的射頻產品業務 Inovonics 和 rf IDEAS 在應對供應鏈挑戰方面表現出色,並在 2023 年實現了非常強勁的財務業績。

  • Looking to our 2024 guidance for this segment. We expect to see high single-digit organic revenue growth for the full year and the expectation that Q1 will grow in the mid-teens area. Now please turn with us to Page 16. This morning, we're establishing our 2024 full year and first quarter guidance. For the full year, which includes the impact of Procare solutions, we expect to see total revenue growth between 11% and 12%.

    期待我們對該細分市場的 2024 年指導。我們預計全年有機收入將實現高個位數成長,並且預計第一季將實現中雙位數成長。現在請隨我們翻到第 16 頁。今天早上,我們正​​在製定 2024 年全年和第一季的指導。考慮到 Procare 解決方案的影響,我們預計全年總收入將成長 11% 至 12%。

  • On an organic basis, we expect to see full year 2024 revenue grow between 5% and 6% and finally, we expect to see full year adjusted DEPS to be in the range of $17.85 and $18.15, which includes about $0.10 to $0.15 of DEPS dilution associated with the Procare deal. Assumed in this guidance a tax rate in the 21% to 22% range. We want to take a moment to set our guide in context of our long-term strategy and execution model. To remind everyone, historically, we operated a 5% to 6% organic growth portfolio. Our strategy and ambition are to structurally improve organic growth rate to be in the 8% to 9% area.

    從有機角度來看,我們預計2024 年全年營收將成長5% 至6%,最後,我們預計全年調整後的DEPS 將在17.85 美元至18.15 美元之間,其中包括約0.10 至0.15 美元的DEPS稀釋與 Procare 交易相關。本指南假設稅率在 21% 至 22% 範圍內。我們想花點時間根據我們的長期策略和執行模式來制定我們的指南。提醒大家,從歷史上看,我們經營著 5% 至 6% 的有機成長投資組合。我們的策略和目標是結構性地提高有機成長率,使其達到 8% 至 9% 的水平。

  • Over the last 3 years, we grew 8%, 9% and 8% on an organic basis, though these years were benefited to some extent from certain market conditions. As such, our view is our current course and speed organic growth rate is in the 7% to 7.5% area. We are very pleased with our progress to date and continue to work to achieve organic growth aspirations. As it relates to organic revenue outlook for '24, we entered the year mindful of 2 factors: continued subdued large customer activity in our Application Software segment and our freight matching businesses within our Network segment, being below trend based on our expectations for continued muted freight market conditions. As it relates to the first quarter, we expect to see adjusted DEPS in the range of $4.30 and $4.34.

    過去三年,我們的有機成長分別為 8%、9% 和 8%,儘管這些年在一定程度上受益於某些市場條件。因此,我們認為目前的有機成長率在 7% 至 7.5% 範圍內。我們對迄今為止的進展感到非常滿意,並將繼續努力實現有機成長的願望。由於它與24 年的有機收入前景相關,我們進入這一年時要注意兩個因素:我們的應用軟體部門和網路部門內的貨運匹配業務的大型客戶活動持續低迷,基於我們對持續低迷的預期,低於趨勢貨運市場狀況。由於與第一季相關,我們預計調整後的 DEPS 在 4.30 美元到 4.34 美元的範圍內。

  • Now please turn with us to Page 17, and then we'll look forward to your questions. As per our custom, we'll conclude with the same key takeaways with which we started. One, we delivered another great year of performance; and two, we have continued positive momentum heading into 2024. Relative to 2023's performance, we delivered 15% revenue growth, 16% EBITDA growth and 32% free cash flow growth with free cash flow margins also at 32%. Our total revenue growth of 15% was underpinned by 8% organic revenue growth. Importantly, free cash flow has grown 16% on a 3-year compounded basis and we delivered our first ever quarter of $1 billion of softer recurring and reoccurring revenues, quite an important milestone for enterprise.

    現在請隨我們翻到第17頁,然後我們期待您的提問。根據我們的慣例,我們將以與開始時相同的關鍵要點作為結束語。第一,我們又取得了出色的業績;第二,進入2024 年,我們將繼續保持積極的勢頭。相對於2023 年的業績,我們實現了15% 的收入增長、16% 的EBITDA 增長和32% 的自由現金流增長,自由現金流利潤率也達到32%。我們 15% 的總收入成長得益於 8% 的有機收入成長。重要的是,自由現金流在 3 年複合基礎上成長了 16%,我們的第一個季度經常性和經常性收入疲軟,達到 10 億美元,這對企業來說是一個非常重要的里程碑。

  • In addition, we deployed $2.1 billion towards high-quality vertical software acquisitions, highlighted by our bolt-ons of Syntellis and Replicon. In a year where deploying capital is structurally challenged and we did so at very compelling values, leading to strong value creation for our shareholders. As we enter 2024, we do so with strong momentum. We continue to see robust demand for our mission-critical solutions and a strong outlook for organic growth. Also, you can count on Roper to improve the underlying business quality as we scale our enterprise. Adding to the momentum for the year are the contributions from our 2023 acquisition cohort and last week's announcement of Procare solutions.

    此外,我們還部署了 21 億美元用於收購高品質的垂直軟體,其中最突出的是我們對 Syntellis 和 Replicon 的補充。在資本配置面臨結構性挑戰的一年裡,我們以非常引人注目的價值做到了這一點,為我們的股東創造了強大的價值。進入 2024 年,我們正以強勁的勢頭實現這一目標。我們繼續看到對我們的關鍵任務解決方案的強勁需求以及有機成長的強勁前景。此外,您可以信賴 Roper 在我們擴展企業規模時提高基礎業務品質。我們 2023 年收購群體的貢獻以及上週宣布的 Procare 解決方案為今年的勢頭增添了動力。

  • Finally, we are well positioned to continue our capital deployment execution. We remain very active in the M&A market, an environment that we expect to be notably improved in 2024. We can do this with a strong balance sheet, a large pipeline of attractive opportunities and unwavering levels of patience and discipline.

    最後,我們有能力繼續執行資本部署。我們在併購市場中仍然非常活躍,我們預計這一環境將在2024 年顯著改善。我們可以透過強大的資產負債表、大量有吸引力的機會以及堅定不移的耐心和紀律來做到這一點。

  • Now as we turn to your questions, and if you could flip to the final slide, our strategic flywheel, we'd like to remind everyone that what we do at Roper is simple. We compound cash flow over a long arc of time by operating a portfolio of market-leading application-specific and vertically oriented businesses. Once the company is part of Roper, we operate a decentralized environment so our businesses compete and win based on customer intimacy. We coach our businesses on how to structurally improve their organic growth rates and underlying business quality.

    現在,當我們轉向您的問題時,如果您可以翻到最後一張投影片,即我們的策略性飛輪,我們想提醒大家,我們在羅珀所做的事情很簡單。我們透過經營市場領先的特定應用和垂直導向的業務組合,在很長一段時間內複合現金流。一旦公司成為羅博的一部分,我們就會經營一個去中心化的環境,因此我們的業務可以根據客戶的親密度進行競爭並獲勝。我們指導我們的企業如何從結構上提高其有機成長率和基本業務品質。

  • Finally, we run a centralized process-driven capital deployment strategy that focuses on finding the next great business to add to our cash flow compounding flywheel. Taken together, we compound our cash flow in the mid-teens area over the long arc of time.

    最後,我們運行一個集中的流程驅動的資本部署策略,重點是尋找下一個偉大的業務來添加到我們的現金流複合飛輪中。總而言之,在很長一段時間內,我們的現金流量都在十幾歲左右。

  • So with that, thank you for your continued interest in Roper, and let's open it up to your questions.

    因此,感謝您對 Roper 的持續關注,讓我們來回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

    (操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Deane Dray。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • Can we start with Procare and it's interesting. This is the first time I recall where you made a deal announcement, and I had not 1 but 2 people at RBC Research contact me and say, "Hey, that they were active customers. And so -- and they show them the apps on their phone, and it was really interesting to see that dynamic. And my question here is I'm really glad that you highlighted how they're a maturing leader and within that category. And what surprises me is how much growth there is? I mean, low single digit, maybe low double digit to mid-teens.

    我們可以從 Procare 開始嗎?它很有趣。這是我第一次記得你在哪裡發布了交易公告,RBC Research 的不是 1 個人而是 2 個人聯繫我並說:「嘿,他們是活躍客戶。所以,他們向他們展示了應用程式他們的手機,看到這種動態真的很有趣。我的問題是,我真的很高興你強調了他們如何成為該類別中成熟的領導者。令我驚訝的是有多少增長?我平均數,低個位數,可能低兩位數到十幾歲。

  • As you start to see that type of growth might the private equity sellers have a bias where maybe that's a public company exit. That's always been the kind of adage go for these more orphan businesses, there is no public company exit. They're more apt to sell to you at a reasonable price. If you start looking at some of these growthier businesses like Procare, even at a maturing leader category, Might that stretch the multiples because the private equity players might have a public company exit in mind. So maybe we can start there.

    當你開始看到這種類型的成長時,私募股權賣家可能會產生偏見,認為這可能是上市公司的退出。對於這些孤兒企業來說,這一直是一句格言:沒有上市公司退出。他們更願意以合理的價格賣給你。如果你開始關注 Procare 等一些成長型企業,即使是在成熟的領導者類別中,也可能會擴大倍數,因為私募股權參與者可能會考慮上市公司退出。所以也許我們可以從這裡開始。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I think first, I appreciate the comments on Procare. I think there's like 80,000 5-star ratings in the app store, so your colleagues are a couple of many about the -- liking the application and the engagement with their kids and their early child education centers. The -- relative to the question about the IPO as a competitor. I mean maybe on some transactions, but most of what we're going to look at are going to be subscale for the IPO market. The TAM here is sub $1 billion. That's not a very IPO-able type market. So this is, again, a small market leader, the market is growing low double digits that we talked about, which underpins the mid-teens growth rate we're underwriting to here.

    是的。所以我想首先,我很欣賞 Procare 上的評論。我認為應用程式商店中有大約 80,000 個 5 星級評級,因此您的同事中有很多人都喜歡該應用程式以及與他們的孩子和幼兒教育中心的互動。 - 與作為競爭對手進行 IPO 的問題相關。我的意思是,也許在某些交易中,但我們要關注的大部分交易都將是首次公開發行市場的小規模交易。這裡的 TAM 不到 10 億美元。這不是一個非常適合首次公開募股的市場。因此,這又是一個小型市場領導者,市場正在以我們談論的低兩位數增長,這支撐了我們在這裡承銷的中十幾歲的增長率。

  • In terms of valuation and multiples, I think we're just in a world where sellers, especially private equity sellers understand the cost of capital where the world is. They have constraints from their LPs. They need to get liquidity back to them. They can't raise new funds without it. And so I mean it's hard to guess what this asset would have traded for 12 to 18 months ago, but substantially, substantially higher on a multiple basis. So we think for the moment, the valuations are coming to us because of the market forces that we just talked about.

    就估值和本益比而言,我認為我們正處於一個賣家,尤其是私募股權賣家了解世界各地資本成本的世界。他們受到有限合夥人的限制。他們需要重新獲得流動性。沒有它,他們就無法籌集新資金。因此,我的意思是,很難猜測該資產在 12 至 18 個月前的交易價格是多少,但在倍數基礎上卻大幅上漲。因此,我們認為,目前我們的估值是由於我們剛才談到的市場力量而出現的。

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think in this current environment, liquidity is really key. So if you do an IPO, you don't get your liquidity right away. So I think that's pretty important.

    我認為在當前環境下,流動性確實是關鍵。因此,如果您進行首次公開募股,您不會立即獲得流動性。所以我認為這非常重要。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • And this might be more of a nuance. But at your Analyst Day, you talked about a willingness to look at businesses that might be at an earlier stage of development and is on that spectrum, does Procare is a maturing leader? Is that something you could have acted sooner on -- and when Jason talked about the level of activity, how within the funnel, are there businesses that are at that earlier stage that might look attractive?

    這可能更具細微差別。但在分析師日,您談到願意專注於可能處於早期發展階段且處於該範圍內的企業,Procare 是一個成熟的領導者嗎?這是您可以更早採取行動的事情嗎?當傑森談到活動水平時,在漏斗中,是否有處於早期階段的業務看起來很有吸引力?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Procare is like a perfect example by earlier stage, right? So these are not early-stage companies. They're earlier than what we've typically acquired in the past. So they meet all of our criteria. I have to emphasize that every time we talk about maturing leaders. So it's a leader in a small market. The base of competition is understood and observable in the marketplace. The relative market share advantage this company has is particularly interesting. So those are common traits of everything we've always acquired. This case, the market is growing a little bit faster and the underlying business model, margins are going to scale as the business grows. So that's the earlier part of what we're talking about.

    Procare 是早期階段的一個完美例子,對吧?所以這些都不是早期公司。它們比我們過去通常獲得的要早。所以他們符合我們所有的標準。每次我們談論成熟的領導者時,我都必須強調這一點。所以它是小市場的領導者。競爭的基礎在市場上是可以理解和觀察到的。該公司擁有的相對市場佔有率優勢特別有趣。所以這些是我們一直以來所獲得的一切的共同特徵。在這種情況下,市場的成長速度會更快一些,而基本的商業模式、利潤率將隨著業務的成長而擴大。這就是我們討論的前面部分。

  • Historically, we would have maybe waited to by Procare until the next trade, the one after the one that just occurred. And so when we look at the model of this over a long arc, it's just much more value for our shareholders to do this type of transaction.

    從歷史上看,我們可能會等待 Procare 直到下一筆交易,也就是剛剛發生的交易。因此,當我們從長遠來看這個模型時,我們的股東進行此類交易的價值會大得多。

  • In terms of the pipeline, it is, as Jason said in his comments, and I said in my comments, just a noticeable change in activity since our last call in the marketplace for some of the reasons that we talked about. The -- and it's a variety of opportunities. I mean we're leaning into doing more bolt-ons. So there's a fair amount of bolt-on activity in there. That's a lot of what Janet her team are working to build. And then there's a fair number of these emerging maturing leaders -- excuse me, maturing leader type profiles, and we'll just have to -- we'll be patient and disciplined to figure out the right ones for us.

    就管道而言,正如傑森在他的評論中所說的,以及我在我的評論中所說的,自從我們上次在市場上進行電話會議以來,由於我們談到的一些原因,活動發生了明顯的變化。這——這是各種各樣的機會。我的意思是我們傾向於做更多的補充工作。所以那裡有相當多的補充活動。這就是珍妮特她的團隊正在努力打造的大部分內容。然後有相當多的新興成熟領導者——對不起,成熟的領導者類型檔案,我們必須——我們將耐心和自律地找出適合我們的人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Maybe just following up on Procare. If you could clarify a little bit just the financial impact. I think you said maybe $0.10 to $0.15 hit for the year in that guide. So maybe just sort of clarify around that -- is it kind of a smaller hit in Q1 because of the timing of the deal close and then we just spread the rest out over the balance? Any thoughts on kind of the seasonality of the Procare business? And then how quickly you'll get that sort of related debt down?

    也許只是跟進 Procare。如果您能澄清一下財務影響的話。我想您在該指南中說過,今年可能會達到 0.10 至 0.15 美元。因此,也許只是澄清一下這一點 - 由於交易完成的時間,第一季的打擊是否較小,然後我們將其餘部分分散到餘額中?對 Procare 業務的季節性有何想法​​?然後你要多快才能減少這類相關債務?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, sure, Julian. So we expect to close in March, that's sort of our assumption right now. So the way that plays out is of the $0.15, maybe $0.02 in the first quarter. So we expect for the calendar year around $75 million of EBITDA. And then we'll, obviously, from an interest perspective, we'll reload on the revolver, which is going to be at around 6%. And so -- and obviously -- cast out through the rest of the year. So that's how I can get to your $0.10, $0.15 for the year. In terms of seasonality, not a ton of seasonality for the business. And of course, it's growing nicely. So that sort of worked through any aberrations you'd have between quarters.

    是的,當然,朱利安。所以我們預計在三月關閉,這是我們現在的假設。因此,第一季的結果是 0.15 美元,也許是 0.02 美元。因此,我們預計本日曆年的 EBITDA 約為 7,500 萬美元。然後,顯然,從利益的角度來看,我們將重新加載左輪手槍,這將在 6% 左右。因此——很明顯——在今年剩下的時間裡都被淘汰了。這樣我就可以拿到你今年的 0.10 美元、0.15 美元。就季節性而言,業務的季節性不是很大。當然,它生長得很好。因此,這可以解決季度之間出現的任何異常情況。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just homing in on network software for a second. So you have that sort of softness in the freight markets that's been sort of well understood for some time. Foundry was also weak for some of last year. So are we thinking that in the context of that low single-digit organic growth guide for the year in network software. Just trying to understand, are you assuming kind of a slower start than a pickup in the back half or it's a steady sort of 3% growth rate dialed in just like how you exited 2023.

    這很有幫助。然後再關註一下網路軟體。因此,貨運市場的疲軟狀態已經被人們所理解了一段時間。去年的一些時候,鑄造廠也表現疲軟。在網路軟體今年低個位數有機成長指引的背景下,我們是否也這麼認為。只是想了解一下,您是否假設起步速度比下半年的回升速度要慢,或者是穩定的 3% 成長率,就像您在 2023 年退出時一樣。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • I'll take the first kind of and then ask Jason, anything wants to add any color. So you're right, the call -- I mean the principal driver of the growth rate in this range for '24 is DAT and length and freight matching businesses. Foundry, had, as we talked about, had a tough '23 with actors and writer strike. On top of that, they started the migration to a full subscription model and so '24 will be a bit muted for Foundry as well, but that's small relative to the impact of DAT and the Canadian Freight Match businesses. We've assumed sort of muted conditions throughout the whole year. There certainly are market prognosticators that are suggesting a second half pickup. We've not assumed that in our model. We want to see it before we load it in and that's our core assumption relative to the Freight Match businesses.

    我會採取第一種然後問傑森,任何想要添加任何顏色。所以你是對的,我的意思是 24 年這一範圍內增長率的主要驅動力是 DAT 以及長度和貨運匹配業務。正如我們所說,《鑄造廠》在 23 年經歷了一段艱難的時期,演員和編劇都罷工了。最重要的是,他們開始遷移到完整的訂閱模式,因此 '24 對於 Foundry 來說也將有點平靜,但相對於 DAT 和加拿大貨運匹配業務的影響來說,這一點很小。我們假設全年的情況都比較平靜。當然,有些市場預測者暗示​​下半年會回升。我們的模型中沒有假設這一點。我們希望在加載之前看到它,這是我們相對於貨運匹配業務的核心假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的布倫特希爾 (Brent Thill)。

  • Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

    Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

  • Curious just to get the thoughts on organic growth in '24, obviously, taking a pretty meaningful step down from what you did last year? Maybe if you can explain that and the initial guide and what you're baking in for the overall guide for '24?

    很想知道 24 年有機成長的想法,顯然,與去年相比,邁出了相當有意義的一步?也許您可以解釋一下這一點以及最初的指南以及您為 '24 的總體指南準備的內容?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. I mean it's -- I'll just comment and share a few of the thoughts we said in the prepared remarks, right? So the -- our long-term aspirations are to grow organically in the 8% to 9% range, and we believe we have the possibility to do that. It's going to take a few more years to get into that run rate that's the aspiration of what we're all working towards both in the group executives and all the operating teams across the company. As you know, the last 3 years, it was an 8%, 9%, 8% throughout that whole period of time. We said we -- those were benefited by some market tailwinds, some comeback from the pandemic, a raging freight market. Things like that, supply chain sort of bottlenecks and releases, and that was sort of in the last 3 years.

    當然。我的意思是——我只是發表評論並分享我們在準備好的發言中所說的一些想法,對吧?因此,我們的長期願望是在 8% 到 9% 的範圍內有機增長,我們相信我們有可能做到這一點。還需要幾年的時間才能達到這樣的運作率,這是我們集團主管和公司所有營運團隊都在努力實現的目標。如您所知,過去 3 年,整個時期都是 8%、9%、8%。我們說我們——這些受益於一些市場順風,一些從大流行中恢復,以及激烈的貨運市場。諸如此類的事情,供應鏈出現了瓶頸和釋放,這是過去三年的情況。

  • So as we look at this year compared to history and then also are the possible. And we think our current course of speed is in the 7% to 7.5% range organic growth through all that noise. So as we compare what we're doing in '24 against all that, it really is 2 simple reconciling factors. One is we just talked about the last question, the freight markets being slow this -- our expectation for them to be slow throughout the whole year. And then as we talked about for a few quarters last year in our Application Software segment, there was notably less large customer activity like enterprise class customer activity.

    因此,當我們將今年與歷史進行比較時,也是可能的。我們認為,透過所有這些噪音,我們目前的速度是在 7% 到 7.5% 範圍內的有機成長。因此,當我們將 24 年所做的事情與所有這些進行比較時,這實際上是兩個簡單的協調因素。一是我們剛剛談到了最後一個問題,貨運市場正在放緩——我們預計全年貨運市場都會放緩。然後,正如我們去年幾季在應用軟體領域所討論的那樣,企業級客戶活動等大型客戶活動明顯減少。

  • Deltek, a little bit, we talked about at frontline, a little bit of smaller business called data novations, which all makes sense large company is anticipating a slowdown, they just got cautious in their buy behavior. The good news is Deltek ended Q4 with a fair amount of momentum. I think they're up low double digits, either high single or low double digits in the quarter. So they exited with a fair amount of momentum. It's one data point. We want to see a few of those down together. And so we're -- those are the 2 recoiling items, the freight slowdown, expectation slowdown in large activity application. That's embedded in our model and those are reconciled factors between last year and where we are this year and also pretty much a reconciling factor between where we are this year and where we think we are from a run rate.

    Deltek,我們在前線談到了一點,稱為數據創新的小型業務,這一切都是有道理的,大公司預計經濟放緩,他們只是在購買行為上變得謹慎。好消息是 Deltek 以相當大的勢頭結束了第四季度。我認為他們的成長是低兩位數,本季要不是高個位數,就是低兩位數。因此,他們帶著相當大的動力退出了。這是一個數據點。我們希望看到其中一些在一起。所以我們——這些是兩個反沖項目、貨運放緩、大型活動應用的預期放緩。這已嵌入我們的模型中,這些是去年與今年的情況之間的協調因素,也是我們今年的情況與我們認為的運行率之間的協調因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Joe Vruwink with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Joe Vruwink 和 Baird。

  • Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

  • I guess I wanted to pick off on the last answer and maybe contextualize a bit more of the outlook specifically for application software. I appreciate the comments on subdued activity with large accounts. Do you happen to maybe have the trend in enterprise bookings? And then any other forecasting considerations to call out? Because I guess I'm trying to reconcile the good step-up at year-end against the mid-single outlook, but that might just be related to the planning kind of assumptions you just mentioned, Neil.

    我想我想選取最後一個答案,並可能將更多的專門針對應用程式軟體的前景具體化。我很欣賞大帳戶活動低迷的評論。您碰巧有企業預訂的趨勢嗎?那麼還有其他需要注意的預測因子嗎?因為我想我正試圖將年底的良好進步與中期的單一前景相協調,但這可能只是與你剛才提到的規劃類型假設有關,尼爾。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think the step up at the end, I mean, Deltek was strong in Q4. And it's one data point. The pipeline looks attractive. The pipeline for frontline looks attractive at both the enterprise and the SMB portion of their business, but we've been through the better part of 3, 4 quarters where the enterprise activity was slow, and we're just not going to underwrite to that in our guidance at the moment.

    是的,我認為最後的進步,我的意思是,Deltek 在第四季度表現強勁。這只是一個數據點。管道看起來很有吸引力。第一線的管道看起來對企業和中小型企業業務都很有吸引力,但我們已經經歷了 3、4 個季度的大部分時間,企業活動緩慢,我們只是不打算承保這一點目前在我們的指導下。

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • In terms of enterprise bookings, they were low single digits, which is consistent for the full year this year and sort of consistent with what we said all year long around just lower activity at the enterprise level.

    就企業預訂而言,其數量較低,這與今年全年一致,也與我們全年所說的企業層面活動較低的情況一致。

  • Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then I wanted to ask, there's some exogenous events like you mentioned Foundry. I think they communicated that they're now exclusively subscriptions here in 2024. You also have a lot of other businesses that have big on-prem maintenance streams that can get a multiplier over time. So there's things that are hurting and helping, I suppose, do you have a sense on a blended and net basis, what this might be contributing to the model in 2024? And when you think about growth improving from the 7% to 7.5% range what these types of items might ultimately mean over the next couple of years?

    好的。偉大的。然後我想問,有一些外生事件,像是你提到的 Foundry。我認為他們傳達了這樣的訊息:到 2024 年,他們現在將完全訂閱。還有很多其他企業擁有大量的本地維護流,隨著時間的推移,這些維護流可以倍增。因此,我想,有些事情是有害的,也有幫助的,從混合和淨的角度來看,你是否知道這可能會對 2024 年的模型做出什麼貢獻?當您考慮成長率從 7% 提高到 7.5% 時,這些類型的項目在未來幾年最終可能意味著什麼?

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I can take the first part of that, Joe, and then maybe Neil can take the second. So in terms of the application software, we still expect it to be strong in the mid-singles. I think nonrecurring revenue will still kind of be flattish we still expect that sort of shift to SaaS to continue, and that's kind of been a small headwind for us throughout the last couple of years, but it's been overcome by the things we talked about, which was enterprise bookings, which we didn't get in '23. So again, recurring is going to be strong. Nonrecurring will be flattish. As Deltek picks up in '24, especially in the large GovCon enterprise, there could be upside in the year because a lot of those customers are still buying on-premise licenses.

    所以我可以接受第一部分,喬,然後也許尼爾可以接受第二部分。所以在應用軟體方面,我們還是期望它能在中路表現強勁。我認為非經常性收入仍然會持平,我們仍然預計向 SaaS 的轉變會繼續下去,這在過去幾年裡對我們來說是一個小小的阻力,但它已經被我們談論的事情克服了,這是企業預訂,我們在23 年沒有得到。再次強調,重複性將會很強。非經常性將是平淡的。隨著 Deltek 在 24 年的復甦,特別是在大型 GovCon 企業中,今年可能會有上漲空間,因為許多客戶仍在購買本地許可證。

  • So that could be an opportunity, but we didn't bake any of that into our guidance. And then when we look at network, recurring will clearly be down low single digits just based on DAT and Loadlink, at least based on our current assumptions. And to your point, I think nonrecurring will be fairly muted as well because we'll still be -- we'll be at the last point of that conversion of Foundry off license to subscription. So they didn't mandate that in '23, they will mandate in '24, we'll be digesting that last piece there and then on to the 7%...

    所以這可能是個機會,但我們沒有將其中任何內容納入我們的指導中。然後,當我們查看網路時,僅基於 DAT 和 Loadlink,重複性顯然會下降到低個位數,至少基於我們目前的假設。就你的觀點而言,我認為非經常性也將相當平靜,因為我們仍然會——我們將處於 Foundry 從許可證到訂閱的轉換的最後階段。所以他們沒有在 23 年強制要求,他們將在 24 年強制要求,我們將在那裡消化最後一部分,然後再討論 7%......

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • I think just more longer term on the SaaS migration. We have a little bit over $900 million in on-premise maintenance. That as that converts it converts our recent history, the last 2 or 3 or 4 years. It's north of 2x on an ARR basis as it converts from on-premise maintenance to SaaS and cloud. So when we do that, it's actually going to -- we believe, historically, it's been a bit of a net growth driver while we might -- we will convert perpetual licenses, which are in-period onetime revenue to SaaS, and that's a classic J curve.

    我認為 SaaS 遷移的長遠目標是。我們的本地維護費用略高於 9 億美元。隨著這種轉變,它也改變了我們最近的歷史,過去的兩三年或四年。隨著它從本地維護轉向 SaaS 和雲端,其 ARR 增長了 2 倍以上。因此,當我們這樣做時,實際上- 我們相信,從歷史上看,它一直是一個淨增長驅動力,而我們可能會- 我們將把永久許可證(即期內的一次性收入)轉換為SaaS,這是一個經典的 J 曲線。

  • The companies that are undergoing this transition, we're going to convert this $900-plus million of maintenance at a clip that will overwhelm that J-curve effect. So we believe it's a net growth driver. Foundry is a bit unique in that they're making a just almost like a day 1 pivot in their business model shift and the other companies are doing more of a migratory approach.

    對於正在經歷這項轉型的公司,我們將快速轉換這 9 億多美元的維護費用,這將壓倒 J 曲線效應。所以我們相信這是一個淨成長動力。 Foundry 有點獨特,因為他們在業務模式轉變中幾乎是第一天就進行了轉變,而其他公司則採取了更多的遷移方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森‧波利尼亞克。

  • Allison Ann Marie Poliniak-Cusic - Director & Senior Equity Analyst

    Allison Ann Marie Poliniak-Cusic - Director & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just want to turn to tech-enabled products. Obviously, a strong year. As we think about that guide, and Neptune and Verathon certainly big components of that growth. Does that kind of diverge to some extent? Does one start to outpace the other? It seems like there's a lot of development at Verathon that could drive some of that. Just any thoughts there?

    只是想轉向技術支援的產品。顯然,這是強勁的一年。當我們思考該指南時,Neptune 和 Verathon 無疑是成長的重要組成部分。這在某種程度上是否有所不同?其中一個是否開始超過另一個? Verathon 似乎有很多發展可以推動其中的一些發展。只是有什麼想法嗎?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • I mean both, as we talked about, both Neptune and Verathon were just great in last year, both grew faster than the segment. Obviously, they are a predominant element of the segment. We believe that the long-term growth rate at Neptune is probably in the high single digits area. And we believe that the long-term organic growth rate of Verathon is probably a bit higher than that. It's -- we want to believe that it's going to be low double digits. We want to see a couple more years of that, some more R&D productivity. We're super encouraged by the pipeline of R&D and the momentum they have in the market across the 3 product categories. So that's where we expect the long-term growth rates to be there.

    我的意思是,正如我們所討論的,Neptune 和 Verathon 去年都表現出色,兩者的成長速度都比該細分市場快。顯然,它們是該細分市場的主要元素。我們認為海王星的長期成長率可能處於高個位數區域。我們認為 Verathon 的長期有機成長率可能會比這個高一點。我們希望相信它將是低兩位數。我們希望看到這樣的情況再持續幾年,研發生產力更高。我們對研發管道及其在 3 個產品類別的市場上的勢頭感到非常鼓舞。這就是我們預期的長期成長率。

  • Allison Ann Marie Poliniak-Cusic - Director & Senior Equity Analyst

    Allison Ann Marie Poliniak-Cusic - Director & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then just following up on the M&A side of things, leverage at 3x, obviously, strong cash flow generator. But it sounds like the pipeline is incredibly active with quality transactions. What's the comfort level in terms of going above that range? Is there a way to think through that? Just any thoughts.

    知道了。然後在併購方面跟進,槓桿率達到 3 倍,顯然,強勁的現金流產生器。但聽起來管道在高品質交易方面非常活躍。超過該範圍的舒適度是多少?有沒有辦法思考一下?只是任何想法。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • I mean we're always -- our long-term policy is between 3x to 3.5x. If you look back to 2015, '16, you can never be right at that level, some of you go above it, come below it. It's always this process and where you draw the line through those swings. We're going to just what's -- business model pickers, as you know. We're going to continue to look for the very best businesses at the most attractive valuations that meet all of our criteria, and then we'll look for the best way to finance those from that point. We certainly understand, I think, acutely risk, both risk in the businesses, risk in the capital structure, and that's a big part of how we think about deploying capital and how we value assets.

    我的意思是,我們的長期政策始終是 3 倍到 3.5 倍。如果你回顧 2015 年、16 年,你永遠不可能達到那個水平,你們中的一些人超越它,低於它。總是在這個過程中,你在這些波動中劃定界線。如您所知,我們將採用商業模式選擇器。我們將繼續以最具吸引力的估值尋找符合我們所有標準的最佳企業,然後我們將尋找從那時起為這些企業提供融資的最佳方式。我認為,我們當然非常了解風險,包括業務風險和資本結構風險,這是我們如何考慮如何部署資本和如何評估資產的重要組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自克里斯托弗·格林和奧本海默。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I had a question about the TEP segment. So you commented on the supply chain issues from the last couple of years all resolved. So curious if you're seeing some nice benefits emerge from production planning and if that drives some natural margin and productivity tailwinds that we should see in the margins in 2024.

    我有一個關於 TEP 部分的問題。所以你評論了過去幾年的供應鏈問題都已解決。非常好奇您是否看到生產計劃帶來了一些不錯的好處,以及這是否會帶來一些自然利潤和生產力的推動,我們應該在 2024 年的利潤中看到這一點。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I think scaling certainly helps. We've added a fair amount of capacity at Neptune. We've added supplier capacity at Verathon. We've added supplier capacity at the RF IDEAS -- the rf products businesses. And certainly, we're not the similar from most companies. The supply chain operations teams are going from a model that was focused for the last 3 or 4 years on resiliency to maybe a more balance between resiliency and sort of just in time, which certainly will help with inventory turns and asset velocity.

    嗯,我認為擴大規模肯定有幫助。我們在 Neptune 增加了相當多的容量。我們增加了 Verathon 的供應商產能。我們增加了 RF IDEAS(射頻產品業務)的供應商能力。當然,我們與大多數公司不同。供應鏈營運團隊正在從過去三、四年專注於彈性的模式轉向彈性和準時性之間的更好平衡,這肯定有助於庫存週轉和資產週轉率。

  • So we do think there's a little bit of money trapped in inventory for us. It will be more of a working capital advantage if we can execute on that plan. In terms of margins, I'll look at Jason. I think it's probably more just scaling infrastructure. I mean what we -- our cost of goods is so low relative to industrial type companies that the input cost or fraction of the cost structure of our enterprise, but your thoughts about that?

    因此,我們確實認為我們的庫存中有一點錢被困住了。如果我們能夠執行該計劃,這將更具營運資金優勢。就利潤率而言,我會看看傑森。我認為這可能只是擴展基礎設施。我的意思是,我們的商品成本相對於工業型公司來說是如此之低,以至於我們企業的投入成本或成本結構的一小部分,但您對此有何看法?

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. No, I think we'll have leverage that will be a little bit above what the EBITDA margin is for the business. I mean we do have some of the growth that we're seeing is in single-use products, which are great because they have a lot of recurring revenue or the reoccurring revenue, but they come at a little bit of a lower margin. And then when Neptune grows, it has a little bit of impact on the segment too. So I would expect leverage to be consistent with what we've seen in the last couple of years just based on those factors.

    是的。不,我認為我們的槓桿率將略高於企業的 EBITDA 利潤率。我的意思是,我們確實看到了一次性產品的一些成長,這很好,因為它們有很多經常性收入或經常性收入,但它們的利潤率有點低。當海王星成長時,它也會對該領域產生一些影響。因此,基於這些因素,我預計槓桿率將與我們過去幾年所看到的情況保持一致。

  • Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

    Christopher D. Glynn - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then about the aspiration to 8% to 9% organic growth and driving things higher. Certainly, I understand you have a lot of coordination of experts and best practices across the enterprise. What would you characterize as top of the list businesses with particular action plan opportunities in that respect.

    偉大的。然後是關於 8% 至 9% 有機成長並推動業績更高的願望。當然,我知道你們在整個企業內有很多專家和最佳實踐的協調。您認為在這方面擁有特定行動計畫機會的頂級企業是什麼?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • So we appreciate the question, right? So we started this portfolio of 5% to 6% growth. We're in a way point of, we think 7% to 7.5% on the way to 8% to 9%. So we've made a fair amount of progress over the last 4 or 5 years. It's less about which company. It's more about the process and discipline across the all 27 now going to 28 companies. And you've heard us talk about this on repeat in the past, but it's just were, if anything, we're consistent. So it's about how do each of our businesses design a strategy in terms of where to play and how to win and where they have the right to lend for durable long-term growth. The second thing is that how do you process enable the execution of that strategy so that you're on repeat. We can use our long-term forever ownership period as a long-term competitive advantage.

    所以我們很欣賞這個問題,對吧?所以我們開始了這個成長 5% 到 6% 的投資組合。我們認為,我們正處於 7% 到 7.5% 的階段,即將達到 8% 到 9% 的階段。所以我們在過去四、五年裡取得了相當大的進展。與哪家公司無關。更多的是關於現在 28 家公司的 27 家公司的流程和紀律。你過去曾多次聽到我們談論這個問題,但如果有什麼不同的話,那就是我們是一致的。因此,問題在於我們的每家企業如何設計策略,包括在哪裡參與、如何取勝以及他們有權在哪裡提供貸款以實現持久的長期成長。第二件事是你如何處理啟用該策略的執行,以便你可以重複。我們可以利用長期的永久所有權作為長期的競爭優勢。

  • So as we stack capabilities that become enduring, then we can outpace our competitors. And then third, is how do we run a talent offense where we use talent as a long-term competitive advantage. We've talked a lot about the upgrade at the field leadership level over the last 3 or 4 years. The expectation for performance is much higher, much, much higher. The alignment of our compensation is tighter to that expectation. And so it's all reacting in unison that you get the Verathon that a decade ago or low single-digit growers and now hopefully low double-digit growers. You take businesses like Deltek, they have the mid and they come solidly mid-plus or maybe they can inch in the high singles over time. So it's about every business doing a little bit better on a sustainable basis.

    因此,當我們累積持久的能力時,我們就能超越競爭對手。第三,我們如何進行人才進攻,將人才視為長期競爭優勢。在過去的三、四年裡,我們已經談論了很多關於現場領導層的升級。對性能的期望要高得多、高得多。我們的薪酬更加符合這項期望。因此,所有的反應都是一致的,你會得到十年前的 Verathon 或低個位數的種植者,現在希望有一個低兩位數的種植者。你以像 Deltek 這樣的企業為例,他們有中端,而且他們穩定地處於中端以上,或者隨著時間的推移,他們可能會進入高端單打。因此,每個企業都需要在可持續的基礎上做得更好一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Giordano with TD Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Joe Giordano 和 TD Cowen。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • On DAT, obviously, the freight market is weak. Can you just -- I know we've talked about that relationship kind of being somewhat inverse in weak markets where they actually tend to do better. Is that -- but just to put a finer point on that, is that more like on negative inflections in the market where it kind of spikes and then if it's like prolonged weakness that ultimately is forced to like trickle into DAT. Is that how we should really think about that?

    DAT 期間,貨運市場明顯疲軟。我知道我們已經討論過這種關係在疲軟的市場中有些相反,而在疲軟的市場中他們實際上往往會做得更好。是這樣的嗎?但更詳細地說,這更像是市場出現負面拐點時,它會出現尖峰,然後如果它像長期疲軟一樣,最終被迫流入 DAT。我們真的應該這樣思考嗎?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • So DAT dynamics are a little bit different than what you described. DAT is when the freight markets are very strong, DAT grows in line or maybe ahead of that strength. When the freight markets are weaker, they tend to slow down. And then the sort of -- so therefore, if you look at their growth, it's more like stair step-type growth. In this particular case, because we're coming off such a surge for a couple of 3 years, it's a little bit more exaggerated.

    所以 DAT 動態與您所描述的有點不同。 DAT 是指當貨運市場非常強勁時,DAT 的成長與該強勁勢頭一致或可能領先。當貨運市場疲軟時,貨運市場往往會放緩。因此,如果你觀察它們的成長,你會發現它更像是階梯式增長。在這個特殊情況下,因為我們已經經歷了三年的激增,所以這個數字有點誇張。

  • The dynamic that you're describing perfectly describes our ConstructConnect business, which is the construction analytics business where when the -- when you think about building product manufacturers and contractors and subcontractors subscribed to your content about what commercial real estate buildings are in the process of being planned and built. They want to look for where their next jobs are going to come from. So in the construction markets, the real estate markets are white hot and contractors are fully subscribed years out. The value of our information is less when the market slows and their backlog is spending then the value of what we offer is much higher. So we tend to have a little bit of a countercyclical sort of demand driver inside the construction activity.

    您所描述的動態完美地描述了我們的 ConstructConnect 業務,即建築分析業務,當您考慮建築產品製造商、承包商和分包商訂閱您的有關商業房地產建築正在建設中的內容時,正在規劃和建設中。他們想尋找下一份工作來自哪裡。因此,在建築市場,房地產市場白熱化,承包商在數年內都已認購完畢。當市場放緩且他們的積壓支出增加時,我們資訊的價值就會降低,而我們提供的資訊的價值就會高得多。因此,我們在建築活動中往往存在一些反週期的需求驅動因素。

  • So by the way, Matt and his team, the ConstructConnect are working to balance out and have done a good job. So hopefully, to go forward will be up in up markets and up and down markets, but that's the -- that's what our product strategy is trying to execute.

    順便說一下,Matt 和他的團隊 ConstructConnect 正在努力實現平衡,並且做得很好。因此,希望未來能夠在上漲的市場以及上漲和下跌的市場中上漲,但這就是我們的產品策略試圖執行的。

  • Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Craig Giordano - MD & Senior Analyst

  • That's good color. Just like a broader question, obviously, we're getting like more and more layoff announcements at like, I guess, that companies across the spectrum from tech to UPS. So how are you guys like in your discussions with your customers -- what's the most recent kind of read they're having on where head count stands and what the implications are for your businesses there that's somewhat dependent on that.

    這顏色真好啊就像一個更廣泛的問題一樣,顯然,我們收到越來越多的裁員公告,我猜,從科技公司到 UPS 等各行各業的公司都是如此。那麼,你們在與客戶的討論中感覺如何——他們對員工人數的最新了解是什麼,以及這對您的業務有何影響,這在某種程度上取決於這一點。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think unfortunately, our read across the macro market isn't a great one, right? Because we operate at these relatively insulated end markets, government contractors, property and casualty insurance where brokerages employment is higher, life insurance where employment is higher, healthcare where employment is higher, education where employment seems stable, if not higher, right? We're in the sort of relatively isolated, protected end markets where the macro swings aren't -- don't impact that much. It doesn't have that much impact on the way we drive compliance bookings in our -- across our portfolio. I will say for the labor market, generally loosening up has been advantageous for us all to have been able to not just fully staff at our business level, but use this opportunity to last probably 12 months plus to significantly upgrade talent across the organization.

    是的。我認為不幸的是,我們對宏觀市場的解讀並不是很好,對吧?因為我們在這些相對隔離的終端市場開展業務,政府承包商、財產和意外傷害保險的經紀人就業率較高,人壽保險的就業率較高,醫療保健的就業率較高,教育的就業率似乎穩定,甚至更高,對嗎?我們處於相對孤立、受保護​​的終端市場,宏觀波動不會產生太大影響。它對我們在整個投資組合中推動合規預訂的方式沒有太大影響。我要說的是,對於勞動市場來說,整體放鬆對我們所有人來說都是有利的,不僅能夠在我們的業務層面充分配備員工,而且能夠利用這個持續約12 個月以上的機會來顯著提升整個組織的人才水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Terry Tillman with Truist.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Terry Tillman。

  • Terrell Frederick Tillman - Research Analyst

    Terrell Frederick Tillman - Research Analyst

  • Maybe just one question for you. I guess it's for you, Neil, is what we've seen with our vertical SaaS companies and even horizontal SaaS companies in the past, when they get those customers on the new modern architecture, it really can start to reduce the friction to buy those other add-on modules. And so what I'm curious about is you called out some of your businesses in the past like Deltek that have seen improving growth. Anything you can share around kind of net revenue retention from those customers that move to cloud? And I know it's still early days, but is there a propensity to buy those add-on modules, does it speed up? Does it quicken and that's just one of these things that could be a cumulative benefit over time and also help on that organic growth. And then I have a follow-up.

    也許只是問你一個問題。我想這適合你,Neil,這就是我們過去在垂直 SaaS 公司甚至水平 SaaS 公司中看到的情況,當他們在新的現代架構上吸引這些客戶時,它確實可以開始減少購買這些產品的摩擦其他附加模組。因此,我很好奇的是,您過去提到了一些業務,例如 Deltek,這些業務的成長有所改善。關於那些遷移到雲端的客戶的淨收入保留,您有什麼可以分享的嗎?我知道現在還處於早期階段,但是是否有購買這些附加模組的傾向,它是否會加速?它是否會加速,這只是隨著時間的推移可能產生累積效益並有助於有機成長的事情之一。然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Super appreciate that question. The short answer is categorically, yes. And we see that, first, when you do the lift and shift, from a legacy product to the current cloud delivery product. There's a migratory benefits that we talked about. Strata is a good example. Same-store sales, 2 to 2.5x uplift. But then while they're doing that, the checkbooks open, and they buy more modules at that moment where total ARR goes up over 3x and they lift and shift their customer base. Same can be said slightly different metrics, Aderant, Vertafore, et cetera. .

    超級感謝這個問題。簡短的回答是肯定的。我們看到,首先,當您進行從舊產品到當前雲端交付產品的提升和轉變時。我們談到了遷移的好處。地層就是一個很好的例子。同店銷售額提升 2 至 2.5 倍。但當他們這樣做的時候,支票簿打開了,他們在那一刻購買了更多的模組,總 ARR 上升了 3 倍以上,他們提升並轉移了他們的客戶群。同樣可以說略有不同的指標,Aderant、Vertafore 等。 。

  • And so what you're talking about is one of the principal benefits both to the customer and to us, our companies for delivering cloud-delivered SaaS deliver software, which is being able to be on the most recent release to be able to take advantage of all the R&D innovation and more easily be able to take additional products because of the delivery mechanism is faster and the implementations are more smooth. So you're exactly right. We're seeing it across the portfolio and expect to see a lot more of that in the years to come.

    因此,您所說的是對客戶和我們(我們的公司提供雲端交付的 SaaS 交付軟體)的主要好處之一,該軟體能夠在最新版本中利用所有研發創新的成果,並且由於交付機制更快並且實施更順利,因此能夠更輕鬆地獲得額外的產品。所以你是完全正確的。我們在整個產品組合中都看到了這一點,並預計在未來幾年會看到更多這樣的情況。

  • Terrell Frederick Tillman - Research Analyst

    Terrell Frederick Tillman - Research Analyst

  • That's great. I appreciate that. And I guess just a follow-up question. And I know you want to be careful in not revealing too much, but if the M&A environment does start opening up more and there's more shots on going, just more things that are interesting, albeit taking into account your discipline. I'm curious, just bigger picture. Usually, it's vertical SaaS. But what about interesting niche horizontal SaaS solutions, whether it's back office or kind of middle office or front office and/or secondarily, the idea of maybe software companies with a meaningful payments business.

    那太棒了。我很感激。我想這只是一個後續問題。我知道你想小心不要透露太多,但如果併購環境確實開始更加開放,並且有更多的機會,就會有更多有趣的事情,儘管要考慮到你的紀律。我很好奇,只是想看更大的圖片。通常是垂直SaaS。但是,有趣的利基橫向 SaaS 解決方案呢?無論是後台、中台、前台和/或其次,可能是擁有有意義的支付業務的軟體公司的想法。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • So as we always said, will always be we're going to be business model pickers. The reason historically, we've been attracted to vertical -- small market verticalized software businesses is because the basis of competition needs to be able to be understood and observed. We want to be able to compete based on both the value proposition of the product, but also the intimacy with the customer and the customer relationship.

    正如我們常說的,我們將永遠成為商業模式的選擇者。從歷史上看,我們之所以被垂直——小市場垂直化軟體業務所吸引,是因為競爭的基礎需要能夠被理解和觀察。我們希望能夠基於產品的價值主張以及與客戶和客戶關係的親密程度進行競爭。

  • The vast majority of our companies, their customers want us to win right, that we are so integral to what they do. They want us to win. They're always giving us input and feedback about how to be better, how to deliver more value to them. And so it's those dynamics that we look for. There are certainly some nichey horizontal type things that meet those criteria, but not a lot. right? A lot of the horizontal have gigantic TAMs, you compete on the base of an algorithm. There's very little loyalty to the company. So those types of things will never invest in.

    我們絕大多數的公司及其客戶都希望我們能夠贏得勝利,希望我們成為他們工作中不可或缺的一部分。他們希望我們獲勝。他們總是向我們提供如何做得更好、如何為他們提供更多價值的意見和回饋。所以我們所尋找的正是這些動態。當然有一些利基水平類型的東西符合這些標準,但不是很多。正確的?很多水平都有巨大的 TAM,你在演算法的基礎上競爭。對公司的忠誠度很低。所以這類東西永遠不會投資。

  • Relative to your comment about payments. Business models are -- we have a variety of business models. The software is on-prem, they're SaaS. We just bought a business that is the integration of SaaS software and payments, where you have deep embedded integration with what the company does and the products do with the payment stream. And so it's a business model. We're open-minded to the business model construct as long as there's an immense amount of durability embedded in the business model.

    相對於您對付款的評論。商業模式是──我們有多種商業模式。該軟體是本地部署的,它們是 SaaS。我們剛剛收購了一家 SaaS 軟體和支付整合的業務,在該業務中,您可以與公司的業務以及產品與支付流的業務進行深度嵌入式整合。所以這是一種商業模式。只要商業模式具有巨大的持久性,我們對商業模式的建構持開放態度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexander Blanton with Clear Harbor Asset Management.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Clear Harbor Asset Management 的 Alexander Blanton。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • I have some questions on Procare and -- the first one is, you've indicated that it's not accretive to adjusted EPS for this year. And if not, then there's some dilution. How much is that? You might have mentioned that earlier, I might not have caught it.

    我對 Procare 有一些問題,第一個問題是,您已經表示,它不會增加今年調整後的每股盈餘。如果沒有,那麼就會有一些稀釋。那個多少錢?您可能之前提到過,我可能沒有意識到。

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • Alex, this is Jason. So we assume around $75 million of EBITDA and then the interest is going to be $1.86 billion at, call it, 6%, which is our revolver, our current revolver rate. And so that's how you get to your calendar dilution number.

    亞歷克斯,這是傑森。因此,我們假設 EBITDA 約為 7500 萬美元,那麼利息將為 18.6 億美元,稱之為 6%,這是我們的循環利率,我們目前的循環利率。這就是您獲得日曆稀釋值的方法。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • But what is that number in EPS?

    但這個數字在 EPS 中是多少呢?

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • $0.10 to $0.15.

    0.10 美元至 0.15 美元。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. So that accounts for the shortfall in the guidance versus the consensus you say $0.10 or $0.15 dilution.

    好的。因此,這解釋了指導意見與您所說的 0.10 美元或 0.15 美元稀釋的共識之間的差距。

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Now going forward, if you're growing at double digits, mid-teens, that implies that you're going to get some pretty good accretion in 2025, correct?

    好的。現在展望未來,如果您的成長率為兩位數,即十幾歲左右,這意味著您將在 2025 年獲得相當不錯的成長,對嗎?

  • Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

    Jason P. Conley - Executive VP & CFO

  • Absolutely. Yes. We're looking forward to the accretion after '24, and it will come, like I said, it's grown mid-teens, very good cash conversion dynamics. We have a little bit of a tax benefit this year, the next year and a couple of years out after that. So yes, feeling good about Procare's contribution to our growth going forward.

    絕對地。是的。我們期待著 24 年後的成長,它將會到來,就像我說的,它已經成長到十幾歲左右,非常好的現金轉換動態。我們今年、明年以及之後的幾年都有一些稅收優惠。所以,是的,我們對 Procare 對我們未來發展的貢獻感到滿意。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • Now can you give us an idea of what the total available market is in their business? And I assume it's all domestic at this point. And how do they look compared with that? In other words, with their market share or approximate? I understand that the leading provider, but it looks like it might be a fragmented market.

    現在您能否向我們介紹一下他們業務的總可用市場有哪些?我認為目前這一切都在國內。與此相比,它們看起來怎麼樣?換句話說,與他們的市場佔有率還是近似的?我了解領先的供應商,但看起來它可能是一個分散的市場。

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • So the TAMs today is about $750 million. It's growing about 10% a year. So you can do the math on what we said the next 12 months, March '25, it's 260. So you got to grow the market at 10% do the math on their current market share and their relative market share position. So their size relative to their next largest competitor is about 1.5x. The market we would characterize as having a number of legacy technology players and Procare and the Principal competitor are generally replatforming the market from a technology perspective.

    所以今天的 TAM 約為 7.5 億美元。每年增長約 10%。所以你可以計算一下我們所說的未來 12 個月,25 年 3 月,它是 260。所以你必須以 10% 的速度成長市場,計算一下他們當前的市場份額和相對市場份額地位。因此,他們的規模相對於第二大競爭對手約為 1.5 倍。我們將這個市場描述為擁有許多傳統技術參與者,Procare 和主要競爭對手通常從技術角度重新建構市場平台。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Finally, in that market, there are different sizes to the groups that you might be serving. There are nursery schools, for example, that have several hundred students, and there are small ones that are much smaller. Where do you fit in that? Do you -- are you aiming at the -- or serving the smaller schools as the larger ones or both?

    好的。最後,在該市場中,您可能服務的群體有不同的規模。例如,有的幼兒園有幾百名學生,也有規模較小的幼兒園。你適合那個位置嗎?您的目標是——還是像較大的學校一樣為較小的學校提供服務,或者兩者兼而有之?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Really appreciate the opportunity to address this question because one of the aspects of the business that we like quite a bit. So the way that we segment the market are basically enterprise, mid- and single operators, so 10-plus centers, 1 to 10 centers and a single operator center. Procare is the demonstrable leader -- relative market share advantage substantially higher than the 1.5x in both the enterprise and the mid and the growth rate in the enterprise and the mid is actually growing faster in the overall market.

    非常感謝有機會解決這個問題,因為這是我們非常喜歡的業務方面之一。所以我們細分市場的方式基本上是企業、中型和單一營運商,所以10多個中心、1到10個中心和單一營運商中心。 Procare 是明顯的領導者——企業和中端市場的相對市場份額優勢均遠高於 1.5 倍,而且企業和中端市場的成長率實際上在整個市場中成長得更快。

  • So the markets -- the segments were -- and then Procare also is highly competes very well in the single operator. I don't want to not comment on that. They could be very effectively there as well, but the strongest and have the largest market share in the enterprise and mid, which means that as the market consolidates ever so slowly over time, that accretes to our advantage.

    因此,市場——細分市場——然後 Procare 在單一運營商中也具有高度競爭性。我不想對此發表評論。他們也可以在那裡非常有效,但在企業和中端市場中最強大並且擁有最大的市場份額,這意味著隨著時間的推移,市場整合如此緩慢,這會增加我們的優勢。

  • Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

    Alexander M. Blanton - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And finally, is there any foreign business there available? Or are you looking to get into that or not?

    好的。最後,那裡有外國業務嗎?或者你想參與其中?

  • Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

    Laurence Neil Hunn - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. International is not a meaningful part of the business today. It is certainly something that we will consider in the long-term strategic outlook for the business, but not something in probably the near term because there's so much opportunity domestically to go -- to get after.

    是的。國際化已不再是當今企業的一個有意義的部分。這當然是我們在業務的長期策略展望中會考慮的事情,但短期內可能不會考慮,因為國內有太多的機會可以去追求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. We will now return back to Zack Moxcey for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我們將回到 Zack Moxcey 進行閉幕致詞。

  • Zack Moxcey - VP of IR

    Zack Moxcey - VP of IR

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you during our next earnings call.

    謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在下次財報電話會議上與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference has now concluded, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。會議現已結束,感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路,度過美好的一天。