RLI Corp (RLI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the RLI Corp's fourth-quarter earnings teleconference.

早安，歡迎參加 RLI Corp 第四季財報電話會議。

After management's prepared remarks, we will open the conference up for questions and answers.

在管理階層發表準備好的發言後，我們將開始會議問答環節。

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, RLI management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs or expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain factors and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the risk factors described in the company's various SEC filings including in the annual report on Form 10-K and supplemented in Forms 10-Q, all of which should be reviewed carefully. The company has filed a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing fourth quarter results. During the call, RLI management may refer to operating earnings and earnings per share from operations which are non-GAAP measures of financial results. RLI's operating earnings and earnings per share from operations consist of net earnings after the elimination of after-tax unrealized gains or losses and after-tax unrealized gains or losses on equity securities. RLI's management believes these measures are useful in engaging core operating performance across reporting periods but may not be comparable to other companies' definitions of operating earnings. The Form 8-K contains a reconciliation between operating earnings and net earnings. The Form 8-K and press release are available at the company's website at www.rlicorp.com.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒大家，在電話會議過程中，RLI 管理層可能會發表反映其意圖、信念或對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受某些因素和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的各項文件中所描述的風險因素，包括10-K表格中的年度報告和10-Q表格中的補充文件，所有這些都應仔細審查。該公司已向美國證券交易委員會提交了 8-K 表格，其中包含宣布第四季度業績的新聞稿。在電話會議中，RLI 管理階層可能會提及營業利潤和每股營業利潤，這些都是非 GAAP 財務績效指標。RLI 的營業利潤和每股營業利潤包括消除稅後未實現損益和權益證券稅後未實現損益後的淨利。RLI 的管理層認為，這些措施有助於衡量報告期間的核心營運業績，但可能無法與其他公司的營運收益定義相提並論。8-K 表格包含營業收入和淨收入之間的對帳。8-K 表格和新聞稿可在公司網站 www.rlicorp.com 上查閱。

I will now turn the conference over to RLI's Chief Investment Officer and Treasurer, Mr. Aaron Diefenthaler. Please go ahead.

現在，我將會議交給 RLI 的首席投資長兼財務主管 Aaron Diefenthaler 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Adam and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，亞當，大家早安。

Welcome to RLI's fourth-quarter earnings call to close out 2024.

歡迎參加 RLI 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Joining us today are Craig Kliethermes, President and CEO; Jen Klobnak, Chief Operating Officer; and Todd Bryant, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我們一起出席的有總裁兼執行長 Craig Kliethermes； Jen Klobnak，營運長；以及財務長 Todd Bryant。

We have a typical agenda today as Craig will kick things off with some preliminary highlights. Todd will run down the financials and Jen will offer more detailed commentary on current market conditions in our product portfolio. The operator will then open the line for questions and Craig will close with some final thoughts. Craig?

我們今天有一個典型的議程，克雷格將以一些初步的亮點開始。Todd 將介紹財務狀況，而 Jen 將對我們的產品組合的當前市場狀況提供更詳細的評論。接線員隨後將開始回答問題，最後 Craig 將發表一些最後的想法。克雷格？

Well, thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone.

好吧，謝謝你，亞倫，大家早安。

I'm happy to report that 2024 results in RLI's 29th consecutive year of underwriting profit. We achieved well balanced growth in underwriting profitability across all of our reporting segments with 12% growth in net written premium and 22% growth in underwriting profits for the year. Our continued growth and financial consistency are a testament to the great service we provide to our customers, our underwriting discipline and our focus on making the best long-term decisions to the benefit of all of our stakeholders.

我很高興地報告，2024 年是 RLI 連續第 29 年實現承保盈利。我們所有報告分部的承保獲利能力均實現了均衡成長，全年淨承保保費成長 12%，承保利潤成長 22%。我們的持續成長和財務穩定性證明了我們向客戶提供的優質服務、我們的核保紀律以及我們致力於為所有利害關係人的利益做出最佳長期決策的決心。

As Todd and Jen will go into in a minute, we remain focused on opportunities where we have the expertise to differentiate ourselves and the market permits adequate returns. Legal system abuse, particularly in wheels-based businesses is a frequent topic of discussion within our strong collaborative underwriting and claim feedback loop. And we fine tune our underwriting approach where needed.

正如 Todd 和 Jen 稍後將要談到的，我們將繼續專注於那些我們擁有專業知識來脫穎而出並且市場允許足夠回報的機會。法律制度的濫用，特別是在基於車輪的業務中，是我們強大的協作承保和索賠反饋循環中經常討論的話題。我們會根據需要調整承保方法。

Motor vehicle exposure still require measurable, ongoing rate increases to address loss cost inflation. We have the underwriting and financial discipline to walk away from underpriced accounts if necessary but have achieved double-digit increases on auto risk this year with more increases expected through 2025. I will let Todd and Jen share more detail on the financials and the market in general.

機動車風險仍然需要可衡量的、持續的費率成長來應對損失成本通膨。我們有核保和財務紀律，必要時可以放棄低價帳戶，但今年汽車風險已達到兩位數成長，預計到 2025 年還會進一步成長。我會讓 Todd 和 Jen 分享更多有關財務和整個市場的細節。

Todd, it's all yours.

托德，這都是你的了。

Thanks, Craig. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，克雷格。大家早安。

Yesterday, we reported fourth quarter operating earnings of $0.41 per share. As a reminder, on January 15, we split our stock 2-for-1 and all share and per share data is reflective of that change. Positive underwriting performance and a 19% rise in investment income contributed to operating earnings. Our combined ratio for the quarter was 94.4 influenced by hurricane losses and select additions to current accident year casualty reserves. Full year results include a combined ratio of 86.2 following an 86.6 for 2023, resulting in our 29th consecutive year of underwriting profitability.

昨天，我們報告第四季度營業收益為每股 0.41 美元。提醒一下，1 月 15 日，我們將股票進行了 2 拆 1，所有股票和每股數據都反映了這一變化。良好的承保業績和19%的成長投資收益為營業利潤做出了貢獻。受颶風損失和本事故年度傷亡準備金的部分增加的影響，本季我們的綜合比率為 94.4。全年業績包括綜合比率 86.2，而 2023 年為 86.6，這使我們連續第 29 年實現承保盈利。

Top line growth continues with gross premiums advancing 9% in the fourth quarter and 11% on a year-to-date basis. Jim will offer some additional details on products driving premium growth. On a GAAP basis, net earnings per share were $0.44 for the quarter and $3.74 for the year. Full year result topped last year by 13% as both underwriting and investment results improved. Although we are largely focused on 2024 results in this discussion today, I do want to take a moment to discuss the Southern California wildfires, an unfortunate event that has impacted many. It is difficult to comment in detail on it -- on an event that is still active but today, we have received a limited number of claims associated with our commercial fire in marine books.

營業收入持續成長，第四季毛保費成長 9%，年初至今成長 11%。吉姆將提供一些有關推動高端成長的產品的更多細節。根據 GAAP 計算，本季每股淨收益為 0.44 美元，全年每股淨收益為 3.74 美元。由於承保和投資績效均有所改善，全年業績比去年同期高出 13%。雖然我們今天的討論主要關注 2024 年的結果，但我確實想花點時間討論一下南加州的野火，這是一場影響了許多人不幸的事件。很難對這一仍在發生的事件進行詳細評論，但今天，我們收到了有限數量的與我們的商業火災相關的海事索賠。

As a reminder, we do not write residential homeowners in California. From a loss standpoint, industry estimates are varied and evolving. While it's too early to speculate on any final impacts, we do expect losses from these events to be very manageable. As is typical and catastrophe scenarios, we will continue to be proactive, reaching out to insurers that we believe may have been impacted.

提醒一下，我們不為加州的住宅業主寫信。從損失的角度來看，行業估計是多種多樣且不斷變化的。雖然現在推測最終影響還為時過早，但我們確實預計這些事件造成的損失將是可以控制的。就像典型災難場景一樣，我們將繼續積極主動，聯繫我們認為可能受到影響的保險公司。

Diving a bit deeper into segment level results, casualty group top line 18% in the quarter with the majority of products posting growth. The bottom line for casualty benefited from $11 million of favorable prior year loss development, modestly above the same period last year. Offsetting this, however, we did add reserves to the current exit year during the fourth quarter. Products of note include transportation and personal umbrella which are driven largely by auto related exposures. While loss frequency has remained relatively flat, concerns over increased auto severity prompted us to add reserves to the current accident year.

深入研究細分領域的業績，本季意外險組營收成長 18%，其中大部分產品均成長。意外險的底線受益於上年 1,100 萬美元的有利損失發展，略高於去年同期。然而，為了抵消這一影響，我們確實在第四季度增加了當前退出年度的儲備。值得注意的產品包括運輸和個人傘，它們主要受汽車相關風險的推動。雖然損失頻率保持相對平穩，但對汽車嚴重程度增加的擔憂促使我們在本事故年度增加了準備金。

You may recall, we took actions on transportation and personal umbrella current accident years in the fourth quarter last year. Concerns at the time were similar, adverse indications on loss severity. Auto severity has been an ongoing challenge for the industry, and we are not immune. We believe our actions are consistent with our approach of addressing concerns as they arise. These lines have achieved significant rate increases and we will continue to monitor them closely, taking additional action if necessary.

您可能還記得，我們​​在去年第四季針對交通和個人保護傘當前事故年度採取了行動。當時的擔憂是類似的，對損失嚴重程度有不利的跡象。汽車嚴重性一直是汽車產業面臨的持續挑戰，我們也無法倖免。我們相信，我們的行動與我們解決問題的方法是一致的。這些航線的費率已大幅上漲，我們將繼續密切關注，並在必要時採取進一步措施。

These current year reserve additions had a notable impact on casualty quarterly results and serve to increase the full year loss ratio by 2 points compared to the trend at September 30. Overall, however, casualty remains profitable, posting a 97.9 combined ratio for the calendar year. Surety was flat in the quarter but up 9% on a year-to-date basis. Prior year's reserves were modestly adverse in the quarter but were redundant for all of 2024 and at a level similar to last year. Acquisition costs have moved higher influenced in part by mix of business as well as our continued investments in people and technology to support surety's growth.

這些當年準備金的增加對意外險季度業績產生了顯著影響，並使全年損失率與 9 月 30 日的趨勢相比增加了 2 個百分點。但總體而言，意外險仍然盈利，全年綜合賠付率為 97.9。本季保證金持平，但年初至今上漲了 9%。上年同期的儲備在本季略有不足，但 2024 年全年都是多餘的，且水準與去年相似。收購成本上升的部分原因是受到業務組合以及我們為支持擔保業務成長而對人才和技術的持續投資的影響。

With a combined ratio in the low 80s year-to-date, we remain very positive on this segment. For property, gross premiums were down 3% in the quarter driven largely by E&S property. Although we are still finding great adequacy, competition has increased, and rates have softened most notably on the [win] business. In contrast, marine and Hawaii homeowners continue to grow as we take advantage of opportunities there. Year-to-date, the segment grew top line 7%. We recorded $48 million of net losses from Hurricane Milton during the quarter while reducing our Helene estimate by $9 million. For Helene, we have been successful in closing a number of claims while certain excess qualities and policies and other flood coverages did not trigger losses as was originally estimated.

今年迄今的綜合比率處於 80% 出頭，我們對這領域仍然非常樂觀。對於房地產而言，本季毛保費下降了 3%，主要原因是 E&S 房地產。儘管我們仍然發現充足的資金，但競爭已經加劇，而且利率已經下降，尤其是在[贏]業務方面。相較之下，隨著我們利用那裡的機會，海洋和夏威夷的房主數量持續增長。今年迄今，該部門營收成長了 7%。本季度，颶風米爾頓給我們造成了 4800 萬美元的淨損失，而海倫颶風造成的損失預估則減少了 900 萬美元。對於海倫 (Helene)，我們成功結案了多起索賠，而某些超額品質和保單以及其他洪水保險並未像最初估計的那樣引發損失。

On an overall basis, prior year's reserves were unchanged in the quarter. Underlying results for the segment are comparable to last year and the segment's 81 combined ratio for the quarter and 68 for the year highlight the influence of growth in earned premium. On the investment front, yields increase throughout the quarter and were well above the year-to-date lows we saw in mid-September. This offered additional opportunities to add high quality bonds above the portfolio's current book yield. Purchase yields at an average 5% in the quarter and strong operating cash flow continues to accrue to a larger invested asset base.

整體來看，本季儲備與去年同期相比沒有變化。該部門的基本業績與去年相當，該部門本季的綜合比率為 81，全年為 68，突顯了已賺取保費成長的影響。在投資方面，收益率在整個季度都有所增加，遠高於我們在 9 月中旬看到的年初至今的低點。這為在投資組合當前帳面收益率之上添加高品質債券提供了額外的機會。本季的購買收益率平均為 5%，強勁的營運現金流繼續累積到更大的投資資產基礎。

The portfolio's average durations extend slightly to 4.9 years as intermediate maturities remain in focus. Total return for the quarter was a negative 1.1% as the decline in bond prices was slightly offset by a positive result in equities. Beyond the core portfolio, our investment in Prime is detracted from earnings in the quarter. We recorded a loss of $12.5 million from our share of Prime's earnings as Prime strengthened reserves on a number of prior accident years.

由於中期債券仍是焦點，投資組合的平均期限略微延長至 4.9 年。由於債券價格的下跌被股票價格的上漲稍微抵消，本季總回報率為負 1.1%。除了核心投資組合之外，我們對 Prime 的投資也影響了本季的收益。由於 Prime 針對前幾年的事故增加了準備金，我們在 Prime 的收益份額中損失了 1,250 萬美元。

While a notable impact to the quarter, our investment in Prime remains very positive on an inception to date basis. Putting it all together, comprehensive earnings were $3.66 per share and pushed book value per share to $16.59, an increase of 24% from year end 2023 inclusive of dividends. Our capital management strategy again included a special dividend of $2 per share split adjusted which was paid in addition to our fourth quarter ordinary dividend. Consistent financial performance and conservative capital stewardship has allowed RLI to return nearly $1.5 billion to shareholders in the last 10 years.

雖然對本季產生了顯著影響，但我們對 Prime 的投資從成立至今仍然非常積極。綜合起來，綜合收益為每股 3.66 美元，每股帳面價值達到 16.59 美元，包括股息在內，較 2023 年底增長 24%。我們的資本管理策略再次包括每股 2 美元的特別股息（經拆分調整），這是在我們第四季度普通股息之外支付的。穩定的財務表現和保守的資本管理使得 RLI 在過去 10 年為股東帶來了近 15 億美元的回報。

All in all, a good quarter and a very solid year.

總而言之，這是一個好的季度，也是非常穩健的一年。

And now, I'll turn the call over Jim. Jim?

現在，我將把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆？

Hey. Thank you, Todd.

嘿。謝謝你，托德。

Let me dive into the segments to provide some insight into our insurance operations.

讓我深入研究各個部分，以便對我們的保險業務提供一些見解。

The casualty segments premiums grew by 18% during the fourth quarter. This included a positive 10% rate change driven by auto coverages which achieved an even larger increase. Growth accelerated in the fourth quarter for casualty brokerage business, which includes E&S primary and excess liability coverages. Premium was up 22% in the quarter. Submissions grew almost 20%, consistent with the increase in flow that we've seen all year. We are seeing more business opportunities by staying in front of our producers. We continue to offer coverages that are tailored to our insurance needs and use specialized claim examiners to achieve the best possible claim outcomes. This results in consistent underwriting profits throughout the insurance cycle.

第四季度，意外險保費增加了 18%。其中，汽車保險費率上漲 10%，漲幅更大。第四季度，包括 E&S 主要責任險和超額責任險在內的意外險經紀業務成長加速。本季保費上漲了 22%。提交量增加了近 20%，與我們全年看到的流量成長一致。透過與生產商保持聯繫，我們看到了更多的商機。我們將繼續提供適合我們保險需求的保險，並使用專門的理賠審查員來實現最佳的理賠結果。這使得整個保險週期內承保利潤持續穩定。

As mentioned before, in the businesses that provide auto coverage including personal umbrella, transportation and some of our packaged businesses, we achieve sizable rate increases. Personal umbrella continued to grow with premium of 37% in the quarter which includes a 22% rate increase. Despite these rate increases, new business and renewal retentions are holding steady. Transportation premium was up 22% and rates increased 13% in the quarter. Submissions increased more than 8% this quarter as our competitors are pushing rate as well.

如前所述，在提供汽車保險的業務中，包括個人傘式保險、交通運輸和一些打包業務，我們實現了大幅的費率成長。個人傘險持續成長，本季保費成長 37%，其中費率上漲 22%。儘管費率上漲，新業務和續約保留率仍保持穩定。本季運輸費用上漲了 22%，費率上漲了 13%。由於我們的競爭對手也在提高費率，本季提交量增加了 8% 以上。

In our packaged business which supports small contractors and professionals like architects and engineers, our auto rate change is a minimum of 15% and increases from there depending on the class of business and the venue. In each of these lines of business, we have seen increased severity and are taking steps to address loss activity beyond just rate. In personal umbrella, we work with our producers to balance growth by state and modify rates to address geographies or coverages that are driving loss severity.

在我們支援小型承包商和建築師、工程師等專業人士的打包業務中，我們的自動費率變化至少為 15%，並根據業務類別和場地而增加。在每一個業務領域，我們都看到了損失的嚴重性不斷增加，並且正在採取措施解決不僅僅是費率的損失活動。在個人傘險方面，我們與生產商合作，平衡各州的成長，並修改費率以解決導致損失嚴重程度的地域或覆蓋範圍問題。

In transportation, severity is notable on larger accounts that are more of a target for plaintiff's attorneys. We have now renewed or pushed for significant rate on these accounts. Our in-house loss control team visits each of our insurers to identify ways to improve their safety often before binding the risk. These visits allow us to assess our insurance buy-in to safety practices and are valuable input into risk collection and accident prevention.

在運輸領域，大額帳戶的嚴重性尤其突出，這些帳戶更容易成為原告律師的目標。我們現在已經更新或推動了這些帳戶的顯著利率。我們的內部損失控制團隊在承擔風險之前經常拜訪每家保險公司，以尋找提高其安全性的方法。這些訪問使我們能夠評估我們的保險對安全實踐的認可，並為風險收集和事故預防提供寶貴的意見。

In the packaged businesses, we have reduced commissions, exited select classes of business and retracted in certain venues with difficult litigation environments. We connect our underwriters, claims and analytical teams to provide continuous feedback on the health of our businesses and identify actions to improve results. Without top line targets, our narrow and deep underwriters know they have our support to address loss activity that threatens our focus on profitable growth. And we have the confidence in their ability to execute.

在打包業務中，我們降低了佣金，退出了精選的業務類別，並撤回了某些訴訟環境困難的場所。我們將承保人、索賠和分析團隊聯繫起來，持續提供有關我們業務健康狀況的回饋，並確定改善結果的行動。在沒有頂線目標的情況下，我們的狹小而深入的承銷商知道他們會得到我們的支持，以解決威脅我們對獲利成長的關注的損失活動。我們對他們的執行能力充滿信心。

In our executive products group which provides directors and officers and other management liability coverages, rate change was negative 3% in the quarter. Our team is working even harder in this challenging market with a focus on smaller private insurance. They continue to demonstrate our commitment to the bottom line by walking away from business that has been under too much competitive pressure or moving up in coverage towers as the risk evolves over time.

在我們提供董事、高階主管和其他管理責任保險的執行產品群組中，本季的費率變動為負 3%。我們的團隊在這個充滿挑戰的市場中更加努力工作，專注於小型私人保險。他們繼續展現我們對底線的承諾，放棄面臨過度競爭壓力的業務，或隨著風險的演變而提升覆蓋範圍。

In our casualty segment, we grow in those lines where we see market opportunities and shrink as those opportunities fade. Our rate change of positive 10% for the quarter is an increase from positive 9% in the third quarter. And it is targeted at those lines where we see loss activity. In this quarter, that was our auto coverages. With our diverse casualty book, we are cautious considering loss severity, but we will seize on the opportunities that it creates in the new year.

在我們的意外險業務中，我們會在看到市場機會時成長，並隨著這些機會的消失而萎縮。本季我們的利率變動為正 10%，高於第三季的正 9%。它針對的是那些我們看到虧損活動的線路。本季度，這就是我們的汽車保險。由於我們的傷亡帳簿種類繁多，我們會謹慎考慮損失的嚴重程度，但我們會抓住它在新的一年創造的機會。

Surety's top line was flat, but we achieved an 87 combined ratio in the quarter. Contract surety led the way with 12% growth driven by continued elevated construction costs and consistent marketing efforts. The contract surety industry has been growing rapidly but so has the industry loss ratio. Our contract surety underwriters constantly monitor and collaborate with producers and principles to support projects that make financial sense and are achievable. This approach has resulted in no material loss activity within our contract surety book this year.

保證金業務的營業額持平，但本季我們的綜合比率達到了 87。合約擔保業務領先，成長 12%，這得益於持續上漲的建築成本和持續的行銷努力。合約擔保業發展迅速，但產業賠付率也隨之上升。我們的合約擔保承保人不斷監控並與生產商和負責人合作，以支持具有財務意義且可行的專案。這種方法使得我們今年的合約擔保帳簿中沒有發生任何重大損失活動。

We saw fewer opportunities in the commercial space this quarter but experienced a fair amount of growth in both small and large commercials for the year. The margin was healthy again this quarter with several small losses but overall, a good result. Property segment premium was down 3% in the quarter after 28 straight quarters of top line growth. The segment produced an 81 combined ratio despite notable catastrophe activity. The decrease in premiums was driven by E&S property where undisciplined competitors are impacting market conditions. MGAs in particular are increasing limit offers, reducing rates and deductibles and starting to erode other terms and conditions.

本季度，我們發現商業領域的機會較少，但全年小型和大型商業廣告都經歷了相當大的成長。本季利潤率再次恢復健康，儘管有幾次小幅虧損，但總體而言，結果還不錯。在連續 28 個季度實現收入成長之後，房地產板塊保費在本季下降了 3%。儘管災難頻繁，但該部門的綜合賠付率仍達到 81。保費的下降是由於 E&S 財產的無紀律競爭對手正在影響市場狀況。尤其是總代理商 (MGAs) 正在提高限額報價、降低費率和免賠額，並開始削弱其他條款和條件。

History has shown that rapidly backtracking on terms and conditions does not turn out well and generally results in capital withdrawing their support. We continue to see an increasing flow of business with submissions up 13% in the quarter. This marks three straight years of double-digit submission increases. In our book of business, hurricane rates were down 12% in the quarter. While rates are down, they are coming off a generational high and our portfolio remains well priced. Where terms and conditions are deteriorating beyond our appetite, we have walked away from a handful of accounts.

歷史表明，迅速收回條款和條件不會帶來好結果，通常會導致資本撤回支持。我們持續看到業務流量不斷增加，本季提交量增加了 13%。這標誌著提交量連續三年實現兩位數成長。在我們的業務記錄中，本季颶風發生率下降了 12%。儘管利率下降，但已脫離一代人以來的最高水平，我們的投資組合價格仍然合理。當條款和條件惡化到超出我們的承受範圍時，我們就會放棄一些客戶。

We were able to respond to our insurers during Hurricane Milton by sending our in house loss adjusters to Florida to work collaboratively to address their needs and resolve their claims as quickly as possible. This is our typical event response after property losses occur. Our timely response results in positive outcomes as evidenced by the 60% closure rate on Hurricane Helene claims and the reserve take down this quarter as we need more certainty and the ultimate outcome. Architectural exposure as measured by total policy limits written in a given area is down for both hurricane and earthquake perils compared to the end of the third quarter and the end of 2023.

在米爾頓颶風期間，我們派遣內部損失理賠員前往佛羅裡達州與保險公司合作，以盡快滿足他們的需求並解決他們的索賠。這是財產損失發生後我們的典型事件回應。我們的及時反應取得了積極的成果，颶風海倫索賠的結案率達到 60%，本季儲備金減少就是明證，因為我們需要更多的確定性和最終結果。與第三季末和 2023 年底相比，以特定區域內承保的總保單限額衡量的建築物受颶風和地震災害的影響均有所下降。

The earthquake market is also under pressure. Competition with MGAs, other carriers and from insurance declining coverage altogether have all contributed to a decrease in submission and premium during the quarter. Despite these challenges, the E&S property market is well priced and growing overall. We believe there is opportunity to raise profitable business, and we will continue to execute in this space. Marine growth slowed a bit in the fourth quarter at 7%. Submissions continue to increase as we stay in front of producers and provide responsive service. Competition always increases at the end of the year as other companies' underwriters stretch to meet their top line bonus targets.

地震市場也面臨壓力。與 MGAs、其他保險公司的競爭以及保險覆蓋範圍的下降都導致了本季度投保量和保費的下降。儘管面臨這些挑戰，E&S 房地產市場價格合理且整體呈現成長態勢。我們相信有機會提高獲利能力，並且我們將繼續在這一領域努力。第四季海洋成長略有放緩，為 7%。由於我們始終站在生產商的前面並提供回應服務，提交量持續增加。由於其他公司的承銷商竭盡全力實現其最高獎金目標，因此競爭在年底總是會加劇。

We can be patient and make the right underwriting decision given our bottom-line focus. This group produced a sizable underwriting profit for the quarter and the year with manageable loss activity and a steadily decreasing expense ratio as they earn more premium. They continue to maintain a strong feedback loop between our underwriting claims and analytical support team.

我們可以保持耐心，並根據我們的底線重點做出正確的承保決定。該集團在本季和本年度創造了可觀的承保利潤，虧損活動可控，費用率隨著保費收入的增加而穩定下降。他們繼續在我們的承保索賠和分析支援團隊之間保持強大的回饋循環。

Finally, Hawaii homeowners grew premium 49% in the quarter. Rates were up 18% as our latest rate filing became effective during the quarter. We continue to provide exceptional service to our agents as they deal with several carriers who have exited or reduced their participation in the market. Consistent with our business model, we take advantage of market opportunities when they arise and support our underwriters to pull back when it makes sense. We have leaned into the E&S property market for several years and we knew they would come when market conditions became more challenging.

最後，夏威夷房主的保費在本季增加了 49%。由於我們最新的利率申報在本季生效，利率上漲了 18%。當我們的代理商與幾家已經退出或減少參與市場的承運商打交道時，我們繼續為他們提供卓越的服務。與我們的商業模式一致，我們會在市場機會出現時抓住機會，並在合理的時候支持我們的承銷商撤資。我們已經涉足 E&S 房地產市場好幾年了，我們知道當市場條件變得更具挑戰性時，他們就會出現。

Our talented team will continue to find opportunities in all of our property businesses to grow profitably over the long term. We completed our largest reinsurance placement at January 1 including our property working layer coverage, catastrophe tower and casualty and packaged placements. Our results were in line with market commentary. We achieved property rate decreases of 10% to 20% with greater decreases in higher layers of coverage. We added back prepaid reinstatements to the bottom half of the catastrophe tower. Capacity was plentiful on our treaty as reinsurers are supportive of our business model. Our casualty reinsurance rate change was minus 5% to plus 5% depending on the line of business.

我們優秀的團隊將繼續在所有房地產業務中尋找機會，以實現長期獲利成長。我們於 1 月 1 日完成了最大的再保險投保，其中包括財產工作層保險、巨災塔險和意外險以及打包投保。我們的結果與市場評論一致。我們實現了財產保險費率下降 10% 至 20%，且保險覆蓋層級越高，降幅越大。我們將預付費復原功能加入災難塔的下半部。由於再保險公司支持我們的商業模式，我們的條約承保能力充足。我們的意外險再保險費率變動範圍為負 5% 至正 5%，視業務範圍而定。

We placed the same structure and maintain the same retention as expiry. Auto coverages were targeted for rate increases while we achieved some relief on our other liability coverages. We closed out our 29th consecutive year of underwriting process. This long-term track record of success stands out in the industry and is an achievement our associate owners should be very proud of. It takes all of our employees to show up every day and be engaged in our business, consistently building relationships with our producer partners, providing exceptional service to our customers and visiting claimants to determine how we can help resolve their claims, processing all of the transactions that come with a book of business of over a million policies and bonds and providing support to our employees so they have the resources to excel at what they do.

我們放置了相同的結構並維持與到期相同的保留。汽車保險的費率將會提高，而其他責任險的費率則有所降低。我們結束了連續第 29 年的核保流程。這一長期的成功記錄在行業中脫穎而出，我們的股東應該為這項成就感到非常自豪。這要求我們所有的員工每天都到場並參與我們的業務，持續與我們的生產商合作夥伴建立關係，為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務並拜訪索賠人以確定我們如何幫助他們解決索賠，處理超過一百萬份保單和債券業務所帶來的所有交易，並為我們的員工提供支持，使他們擁有資源來出色地完成他們的工作。

Our associate-owners will continue to serve our customers well and look for ways we can improve our products, processes and services into this new year. They deserve a big shout out for their efforts and I want to personally thank them and congratulate them on our shared success.

我們的合夥人將繼續為客戶提供良好的服務，並尋找在新的一年中改進我們的產品、流程和服務的方法。他們的努力值得我們大聲讚揚，我要親自感謝他們，並祝賀他們的共同成功。

And now, I'll turn the call over to the moderator to open it up for some questions.

現在，我將把電話交給主持人，以便回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默

I'm going to -- first off on the casualty reserves for the current accident year addition. It sounds like that's from transportation and personal umbrella. But can you give some kind of relative split between the two of which one drove most of that? It sounds like to me, it was more of transportation, but I want to make sure I'm right on that.

我要——首先談談當前事故年度傷亡儲備的增加。聽起來這和交通和個人保護傘有關。但是，您能否對這兩者進行相對區分，看看哪一個因素起了主要作用？在我看來，這更多的是一種交通方式，但我想確保我的看法是正確的。

Hey Michael, it's Todd. It was split really. I mean about half of that would be umbrella related and then the other part would be transportation. So it's fairly evenly split.

嘿，邁克爾，我是托德。確實分裂了。我的意思是其中大約一半與雨傘有關，另一部分與交通有關。所以分配相當均勻。

On the transportation, you talked about severity. Can you say what severity you're seeing between those two pieces separately?

關於交通，您談到了嚴重性。您能否分別說出這兩部分之間的嚴重程度？

I don't know from a -- between the two from a severity difference. I think if you look at, I mean what we're assuming when we look at the loss trend on an overall basis on auto related exposures, which both of those would be that we're assuming lost trend that 10 points to 11 points. So again, it's -- there's some severity there. I think if you look back to last year, in the fourth quarter, we added about $6 million. So this is obviously about three times that. That was I think four to pup up and two to transportation on the 2023 accident year. Those have turned out to be more than adequate from that standpoint. We're going to react to negative indications from a consistent basis there.

我不知道這兩者之間的嚴重程度有何不同。我認為，如果你看一下，我的意思是，當我們從整體來看汽車相關風險的損失趨勢時，我們假設的損失趨勢是 10 點到 11 點。所以，再說一遍，那裡的情況有些嚴重。我想如果你回顧去年，在第四季度，我們增加了約 600 萬美元。所以這顯然是這個數字的三倍左右。我認為，在 2023 年發生事故時，有四隻小狗需要撫養，兩隻需要運輸。從這個角度來看，這些已經足夠了。我們將持續對負面跡像作出反應。

But I also think you want to take a bit of a longer-term view on that casualty loss ratio and combined ratio. Certainly the combined ratio year-to-date with the actions we took in the fourth quarter moved up about 2 points. But if you view it a bit longer, I mean that reaction is consistent with how we have been in the past. If you look over the last decade, I think our casualty combined ratio underlying for that current accident year has been in that 102 range.

但我還認為，您希望從更長遠的角度來看待傷亡損失率和綜合比率。當然，年初至今，加上我們在第四季採取的行動，綜合比率上升了約 2 個百分點。但如果你從更長遠的角度來看，我認為這種反應與我們過去的反應是一致的。如果回顧過去十年，我認為目前事故年度的傷亡綜合比率一直在 102 左右。

I think there's only been two years that we have booked it initially below 100 and that was not by very much. And then if you fast forward to 2024, take a look back, those years have developed from a loss standpoint about 10 points better than the initial indication. So they're now in the low 90s. But we're going to react. We've been fairly consistent there in trying to react to adverse indications. This quarter was another one of those. And we're willing to wait and see ultimately what transpires over time.

我認為只有兩年我們最初預定的數量低於 100，而且差距並不大。然後，如果你快轉到 2024 年，回顧一下，從虧損的角度來看，那些年的發展比最初的跡像要好 10 個百分點。所以他們現在處於 90 年代初期。但我們會做出反應。我們一直在努力對不利跡像做出反應。本季也是這樣的一個季度。我們願意等待，看看隨著時間的推移最終會發生什麼。

Jen mentioned the transportation of large accounts also driving the severity and non-renewing some business there. Can you say what percent of your book you're referring to there?

Jen 提到，大額客戶的運輸也加劇了問題的嚴重性，導致一些業務無法繼續進行。你能說一下你提到的這本書的百分比是多少嗎？

Our transportation book is pretty diverse. Yeah. It's pretty diverse between long haul trucking, public buses and especially commercial auto along with a couple of smaller adjacent focuses as well. And so our largest accounts, we have large accounts in each of those. We've walked away from many of our large accounts over the course of the year. As far as this quarter, we shared a couple of them. So premium wise, it would probably be a much larger percentage than policy count wise, but I don't have a number specific to that.

我們的交通書籍內容相當豐富多彩。是的。長途貨運、巴士和特別是商用汽車以及一些較小的相鄰焦點之間存在相當大的差異。因此，在我們最大的帳戶中，每個帳戶都有大額帳戶。我們在過去一年中放棄了許多大客戶。就本季而言，我們分享了其中的幾個。因此，從保費角度來看，其百分比可能比保單數量大得多，但我沒有具體的數字。

And just last one on Prime. I guess the strategic view of Prime for you guys is it to continue to own kind of about the quarter percent that you own, 25% that you own somewhere in that ballpark range. Do you still have the participation in the quota share? What is that? Will that remain over the coming years or is it -- or that shift away downward? And then yeah, let me stop there. So the on the Prime continue to own around 25% or kind of what's the long term outlook for that?

這是 Prime 上的最後一個。我想，你們對 Prime 的戰略觀點是繼續持有你們所持有的大約四分之一到二十五% 左右的股份。你們還有參與配額份額嗎？那是什麼？未來幾年這種趨勢還會持續嗎？或會下降嗎？是的，讓我就此打住。那麼 Prime 繼續持有約 25% 的股份，或者其長期前景如何？

So you are correct and we -- this is Craig, by the way. We do currently own about 25% of Prime. As you know, we're a minority owner. We're kind of along for the ride. It's privately held and controlled. So there are limited -- we're a bit along for the ride. And it's been a good investment to date. As Todd mentioned, I think we received dividends in excess of what our original investment was. So we still view that as a very positive experience so far. And I think you also asked about the treaty going forward. We did reduce our participation from 2.5 I think to 1 on a go forward basis as a result of the terms and conditions that were put forward.

所以你是對的，順便說一下，這是克雷格。我們目前確實擁有 Prime 約 25% 的股份。如您所知，我們是少數股東。我們只是順路而已。它是私人持有和控制的。因此，我們的努力有限——我們只是順路而行。到目前為止，這是一項很好的投資。正如托德所提到的，我認為我們收到的股息超過了我們最初的投資。因此，到目前為止，我們仍然認為這是一次非常積極的經驗。我想您也詢問了該條約的未來進展。根據提出的條款和條件，我們確實將參與人數從 2.5 減少到了 1。

Just last one quickly on Prime. So you mentioned your pretty minimal exposure to California. Did that also include any exposure from Prime? I know they write a bunch of fire and homeowners but maybe not in California.

在 Prime 上只需快速瀏覽最後一個即可。您提到您很少接觸加利福尼亞。這是否也包括 Prime 的曝光？我知道他們寫了很多有關火災和房主的文章，但可能不是在加州。

That might -- I don't believe. They do write some homeowners out there. That is not subject to our treaty. So we're not -- we're a little -- operating a little blind there in regards to what their actual exposures might be. They don't run their homeowners business that they might write out there through their -- through our participation in the treaty.

那可能——我不相信。他們確實寫了一些房主。這不受我們條約的約束。因此，我們並不是 — — 我們只是有點 — — 對他們的實際風險敞口有點盲目。他們不經營自己的房主業務，他們可能透過他們——透過我們參與條約——在那裡寫出來。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I'll go back to the higher picks that you mentioned, Jen, in your comments on transportation umbrella and package. And maybe just when I hear about the 22% rate increase in your personal umbrella due to loss severity, I'm just curious, are you changing like your gross limit profile, your net limit profile if you're being affected by severity? And I guess when I hear about the substantial rate increase, it leads me to wonder whether you had the right pricing on the product in the previous accident years. So maybe you could give us some color on that.

Jen，我將回到您在有關運輸保護傘和包裹的評論中提到的更高選擇。也許當我聽說由於損失嚴重程度而導致您的個人傘式保險費率增加 22% 時，我只是好奇，如果您受到嚴重程度的影響，您的總限額狀況、淨限額狀況是否會發生變化？當我聽到費率大幅上漲時，我不禁懷疑，在前幾年的事故中，該產品的定價是否正確。所以也許您可以給我們一些相關資訊。

Sure. So our book portfolio as you know has grown significantly over the last few years. We identified some new source of production and just focused on getting the word out that everybody, by the way, should have a first umbrella policy. We did take some significant rate over the last couple of years and have some great findings that have been recently approved. That will continue to go into effect this -- in 2025. So we should see that rate continue.

當然。如您所知，我們的圖書數量在過去幾年中大幅增加。我們找到了一些新的生產來源，並專注於宣傳每個人都應該擁有第一個綜合政策。過去幾年我們確實取得了一些顯著的進展，並且最近獲得了一些重要的發現。該政策將於 2025 年繼續生效。因此我們應該看到這一比率持續下去。

I would say our limit profile has not changed. We primarily put out a $1 million limit. That's more than half the book. We go up to $5 million in limits. But we do issue some 2s and 3s, for example. Our appetite has not changed in that respect in terms of avoiding I'll say celebrities or people that are targeted in terms of government figures, things of that nature. So we do underwrite around the type of person that we're willing to cover, which is your average person. We do have our largest states, remain the same, which are those states where the underlying property and liability coverages tend to be separated.

我想說我們的限制概況沒有改變。我們主要設定了 100 萬美元的限額。這已經超過了這本書的一半內容。我們的限額高達 500 萬美元。但例如，我們確實發行了一些 2 和 3。在這方面，我們的胃口沒有改變，我們會避免接觸名人或政府官員等這類被針對的人。因此，我們確實會針對我們願意承保的人群進行承保，也就是普通人。我們確實有最大的州，保持不變，這些州的基礎財產和責任保險往往是分開的。

So tend to be similar to our E&S states, California, Florida, for example. And so that has not changed. But what we have done given the growth and the losses that have come in is to really emphasize and work with our producers to try to grow those states that are not those which is a little bit more difficult given the underlying coverages aren't necessarily separated as often. I think the emergence of that whether it's insured, tech, auto companies or other online instances of coverage that have opened up that a bit in the Midwest, for example, where typically, your coverages tend to be together.

因此往往與我們的 E&S 州（例如加利福尼亞州、佛羅裡達州）類似。所以這一點並沒有改變。但考慮到成長和損失，我們所做的就是真正強調並與我們的生產商合作，嘗試發展那些不是那些有點困難的州，因為底層覆蓋範圍不一定經常分開。我認為，無論是保險公司、科技公司、汽車公司或其他線上保險，這些都在美國中西部地區有所發展，通常情況下，您的保險範圍往往是在一起的。

But in terms of the profile of the book and the insurance, it hasn't changed significantly. We watch that very carefully both by state, by production source, pretty much by any way you could slice the book. So we're closely monitoring that. And as we come up with rate indications by state as we prepare for filing, all of that information are inputs into what the rate lead is going forward. So we think we're in pretty good shape there. Probably for future filings that we have to make. But we think that it's a book at this point we're happy with.

但就書籍和保險的概況而言，並沒有發生重大變化。我們非常仔細地觀察著各州、生產來源，幾乎任何你可以切分書籍的方式。因此我們正在密切關注此事。當我們在準備提交文件時，我們會根據州提出利率指示，所有這些資訊都會輸入到利率指引中。所以我們認為我們的情況相當不錯。可能是為了我們必須進行的未來備案。但我們認為，就目前而言，這是一本令我們滿意的書。

And our exercise for TAM. I'll just add, Greg, we've been in this business for over 30 years. It's been historically a very possible business. 40 years, Jim just corrected me. It's been a very profitable business. Sometimes rates are a reflection of opportunities, not just always rate need. I mean I know no one asked us the question why we're getting 40% rate increase on hurricanes last year. But there was no implication that rates were inadequate before. But we will continue to look at the level of competition that we have, and the rate trends and we'll tap the rates as we need.

這是我們對 TAM 的練習。我只想補充一點，格雷格，我們從事這個行業已經 30 多年了。從歷史上看，這是一項非常有可能實現的業務。 40年，吉姆剛剛糾正了我。這是一項非常有利可圖的業務。有時利率反映的是機會，而不僅僅是利率需求。我的意思是，我知道沒有人問過我們為什麼去年颶風的保費要漲 40%。但之前並沒有暗示利率不足。但我們將繼續關注我們的競爭水平和利率趨勢，並根據需要調整利率。

There are also some states to the many products. So some of those rate increases are delayed over time and have resulted in us meeting having greater needs. And I don't need the name and states, but you're probably pretty familiar with which states are very difficult to get rate increases through. So some of that was built up over a period of time. So a lot of times, we try to address that through other underwriting methods as well as rate. So.

許多產品也有一些狀態。因此，部分費率的上調會隨著時間的推移而被推遲，讓我們滿足更大的需求。我不需要知道州名和州名，但你可能非常熟悉哪些州很難提高利率。因此其中一些是經過一段時間才建立起來的。因此很多時候，我們嘗試透過其他承保方法和費率來解決這個問題。所以。

Yeah. I can pretty much guarantee I wasn't thinking about your umbrella policies 40 years ago. So on the limit question --

是的。我幾乎可以保證，40 年前我根本沒有考慮過你的傘式保險。關於極限問題--

Still for sale, Greg, if you're eligible.

格雷格，如果你符合條件的話，它仍然在出售。

Have you -- if I'm eligible, well, then I'm probably not. But hey, on the transportation piece, any change in your limit profile there because of severity or is it just the same limit profile just being very restrictive about new business or give us some perspective there.

您是否——如果我符合資格，那麼我可能不符合。但是，嘿，在運輸方面，由於嚴重性，您的限制條件有任何變化嗎？或者只是相同的限制條件對新業務有非常嚴格的限制，或給我們一些看法。

Yeah. Limit profile and transportation also remains the same. For most of our business, it's a $1 million limit. Sometimes we put out two and a lot of times, we'll buy faculty of reinsurance and that with the exception of our public buses where it's required a $5 million limit in most places. So again, we buy reinsurance that attaches $1 million there as well. So no change in limit profile and transportation.

是的。限制概況和運輸也保持不變。對於我們的大多數業務來說，限額是 100 萬美元。有時我們會拿出兩份，很多時候，我們會購買再保險，但公共汽車除外，大多數地方對公共汽車的保險限額為 500 萬美元。因此，我們再次購買了 100 萬美元的再保險。因此限制概況和運輸沒有變化。

I guess the final question, congratulations on the special dividend and the capital returns. Can you just remind me is there some magical formula that you guys are using around the special dividend where we should think about it on a go forward basis or any parameters that you can help us use for future expectations would be appreciated.

我想最後一個問題，祝賀特別股息和資本回報。您能否提醒我一下，你們在特別股息方面是否使用了一些神奇的公式，我們應該在未來的基礎上考慮它，或者您可以幫助我們使用任何參數來預測未來的預期，我們將不勝感激。

Sure, Greg. I mean unfortunately, I'm probably not going to give you any insight here, but it's the same as it's been before. We kind of evaluate -- at least historically, we've kind of evaluated in the third quarter or late third quarter after we're looking at, get through the hurricane season. So which is earthquake season as you know. We're looking at where we kind of where we end up relative to the AM Best benchmarks and that rating is important. We value A+ rating that we get from that rating agency.

當然，格雷格。我的意思是，不幸的是，我可能不會在這裡給你任何見解，但它和以前一樣。我們會進行評估——至少從歷史上看，我們會在第三季或第三季末進行評估，直到颶風季節過去。如你們所知，現在正是地震季節。我們正在關注我們相對於 AM Best 基準的最終位置，並且該評級很重要。我們重視從該評級機構獲得的 A+ 評級。

So we look at what's required to hold there. We also look at our own opportunities. We have some of our own internal metrics in regards to events and try to make sure we have enough capital to sustain that event and still keep an A+ rating. And then we're looking at opportunities on a go forward basis, both the opportunities that are organic or inorganic opportunities and what kind of capital is required to support those businesses.

因此，我們看看需要什麼才能守住那裡。我們也關注自己的機會。我們有一些關於活動的內部指標，並試圖確保我們有足夠的資金來維持活動並保持 A+ 評級。然後，我們會尋找未來的機會，包括有機或無機的機會，以及支持這些業務所需的資本類型。

Now a lot of those frankly, incremental growth does not require a lot of additional capital to provide you remain profitable. So that doesn't drive a lot of capital needs unless, for some reason, we decide we're going to take a much larger retention on catastrophe business or something that was more volatile, which probably isn't in our DNA or nature. But so that's our approach. It's been our approach for as long as I think we've been doing special dividends, and it will remain our approach for the foreseeable future.

坦白說，現在很多增量成長並不需要大量額外資本來保證獲利。因此，這不會帶來大量的資本需求，除非出於某種原因，我們決定在災難業務或更不穩定的業務上保留更大的份額，但這可能不符合我們的 DNA 或本質。但這就是我們的方法。我認為，自從我們開始發放特別股息以來，這一直是我們的做法，並且在可預見的未來，這仍將是我們的辦法。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies

安德魯·安德森（Jefferies）

On property, reported margins have been strong and absolute rate level is probably still very favorable. So just trying to better understand how you think about maintaining margins or if you'd rather see the total property line grow as you're okay giving back a little bit of margin.

在房地產方面，報告的利潤率一直很高，絕對利率水平可能仍然非常有利。因此，只是想更好地了解您如何看待維持利潤率，或者您是否寧願看到總財產線成長，因為您可以接受返還一點利潤率。

So if I look at the property segment, we've got three parts to that. I'd say the part that's most pressured is our US property part. When we think about it, I mean we're doing battle every day in the trenches I'd say where we're looking at what opportunities presented to us and how it compares to what used to. So on our renewal book, we try to hold on to our renewal. So obviously, we have a lot of information about them and we know the starting point. And so we are willing to give some of those and we will give some of those in terms of rates.

因此，如果我看一下房地產部分，我們會發現它有三個部分。我想說壓力最大的部分是我們美國房地產部分。當我們思考這個問題時，我的意思是我們每天都在戰壕裡戰鬥，我們會​​尋找我們面臨的機會以及與過去相比的情況如何。因此，在我們的更新書中，我們嘗試堅持我們的更新。顯然，我們掌握了大量有關它們的信息，並且知道起點。因此，我們願意提供其中的一些，並且我們將以利率的形式提供其中的一些。

We send a favor keeping our policy forms intact. So we get slower on terms and conditions because those matter in the event of an actual claim. And I think that's underappreciated by some folks in the industry. So that's how we look at renewals. For new business, that's where it's a little bit more competitive in particular with people putting out larger limits, that's eliminating whole layers that were available before. So while the opportunity still remains, and our submission count is up and we're seeing a lot of business, it's a little more difficult because as people put out, they're back to $50 million of limit when just a couple of years ago, people were putting out $2.5 million to $5 million.

我們希望您能保管好我們的保單表格。因此，我們在條款和條件方面的處理速度會比較慢，因為這些對於實際索賠至關重要。我認為業內有些人沒有充分認識到這一點。這就是我們看待續約的方式。對於新業務來說，競爭會更加激烈，尤其是當人們設定更大的限額時，這會消除以前存在的整個層級。因此，儘管機會仍然存在，我們的提交數量也在增加，我們看到了很多業務，但這還是有點困難，因為隨著人們的投入，他們又回到了 5000 萬美元的限額，而就在幾年前，人們投入的金額才 250 萬到 500 萬美元。

You can see that takes a lot less players to get involved to finish that tower of coverage. And so some opportunities are leaving that space. And so if we think about new business, we want to compete with it. But if the pricing is well below what we think we need to achieve a proper return, then we can't do it. We're very bottom line focused there, and our team has the support to look at it in that fashion.

您可以看到，只需很少的玩家參與即可完成該覆蓋塔。因此一些機會正在離開這個空間。因此，如果我們考慮新業務，我們就想與之競爭。但如果定價遠低於我們認為實現適當回報所需的價格，那麼我們就無法做到。我們非常注重底線，我們的團隊也支持以這種方式看待它。

I'd just add our underwriters have benchmark pricing available to them as they price every account. They're looking at that. Even though the market generally is still above that benchmark, it's dropping relatively fast, faster on some accounts than others, but we don't tend to lose business by 10% or 15%. The underwriters walking away from business when someone's undercutting the price by 30% or 40% and our underwriters are not willing to kind of go there. They're constantly evaluating the trade-off between margins and growth in underwriting profit dollars.

我只想補充一點，我們的承銷商在為每個帳戶定價時都有基準定價。他們正在看那個。儘管市場總體仍高於該基準，但下降速度相對較快，某些帳戶的下降速度比其他帳戶更快，但我們的業務損失通常不會達到 10% 或 15%。當有人將價格壓低 30% 或 40% 時，承銷商就會放棄業務，而我們的承銷商不願意這樣做。他們不斷評估利潤率和承保利潤成長之間的權衡。

I mean that's how they're compensated at the end of the day anyway. So they're always looking at that trade off. I can tell you very rarely have we ever seen that trade off works that you can trade margin, and you can write a lot more business. Usually, you're losing business by much more than the 5% or 10% that causes your margin just to slip a little bit. But the amounts that we would hear back from our underwriters is you got to cut rates 25% to 40% to start to grow or to start really growing again and then you get below benchmark pricing and things like that. So it doesn't make a lot of sense. So.

我的意思是，無論如何，這就是他們最終得到的補償。所以他們總是在考慮這種權衡。我可以告訴你，我們很少看到這種權衡之舉，你可以透過交易保證金來開展更多的業務。通常情況下，您的業務損失遠不止 5% 或 10%，這會導致您的利潤率略有下降。但我們從承銷商那裡聽到的反饋是，你必須降低 25% 到 40% 的費率才能開始成長，或者再次開始真正成長，然後你的定價就會低於基準定價等等。所以這沒什麼意義。所以。

And on casually, Jen, I think you mentioned last quarter, rate is keeping up with loss trend. Is that still the case at 10% and reflective of a higher severity estimate within personal umbrella and transportation? And then just maybe on top of that as well as 67.5, a good kicking off point for '25 underlying in casualty.

隨意地講，Jen，我想您上個季度提到過，利率與虧損趨勢保持一致。10% 的情況是否仍然如此，並且反映了個人保護傘和交通運輸中更高的嚴重程度估計？然後也許在此基礎上再加上 67.5，這是 25 年潛在傷亡的一個好起點。

Yeah. I'm not sure about the kicking off point for casualty, but I'll say that loss trend as Todd mentioned between 10% and 11% for auto. I tend to look at it by coverage. And our, as we roll up our rate change for all of our auto coverages in our book, it was 15% for the quarter. We have a strong feedback loop where we tell our actuaries are talking to our underwriters all the time. I would say here's the trend. You have to get over this and our underwriters say yes, we will get over that. So it's on the top of mind for everybody who writes that type of coverage. Same process occurs in our other liability coverages. That same feedback and knowledge of what we're -- what we need to get. So that should continue.

是的。我不確定傷亡的起點，但我會說，正如托德所提到的，汽車的損失趨勢在 10% 到 11% 之間。我傾向於透過覆蓋範圍來看待它。當我們匯總帳簿中所有汽車保險的費率變化時，我們發現本季的費率變化為 15%。我們有一個強大的回饋迴路，我們告訴我們的精算師一直在與我們的承保人交談。我想說這就是趨勢。你必須克服這一點，我們的承銷商說是的，我們會克服這一點。因此，對於每個撰寫此類報道的人來說，這都是最值得關注的問題。我們的其他責任險也發生同樣的過程。同樣的回饋和知識告訴我們我們需要得到什麼。所以這種情況應該要繼續下去。

Yeah. Figuring this out, I mean I think that we'll continue with it is going on certainly right now as we look and have some discussions next week with the actuaries and other folk on where, where we're going to book the start the 2025 accident year. So we're certainly making in what's going on from a trend standpoint, those assumptions Jen mentioned what we're getting rate wise. Overall, we have tended to on the reserving side probably a little higher in the pricing range, the estimates there and I think that'll be consistent with we haven't got together with them yet on 2025.

是的。弄清楚這一點後，我的意思是，我認為我們將繼續進行下去，現在我們肯定會繼續下去，下週我們將與精算師和其他人進行一些討論，討論我們將在哪裡開始 2025 年事故年。因此，我們肯定會從趨勢的角度來考慮正在發生的事情，Jen 提到的那些假設就是我們在利率方面得到的。總體而言，我們傾向於在儲備方面將價格範圍定得略高一些，那裡的估計值與我們在 2025 年尚未達成的共識相一致。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什（Bill Carcache），沃爾夫研究公司。

Following up on your cautiousness and casualty, how significantly has your appetite for growth been tempered given the severity trends that you're seeing your premium growth in the segment remain quite strong? Even though your loss rate came in at the highest level we've seen since 2017, it would just be helpful to hear more about what's changed.

考慮到您謹慎和意外事件的態度，鑑於您看到該領域的保費增長仍然相當強勁的嚴重趨勢，您對增長的興趣在多大程度上受到了抑制？儘管您的損失率達到了 2017 年以來的最高水平，但了解更多變化仍然會有所幫助。

Well, the way we think about growth is that we really trust our product leaders who are closest to the market and closest to what's going on with our producers and what's available to tell us where the opportunity is and that works for us over the long term. So we are in touch with, where the market is. And if someone says this is a great opportunity, then we want to support them to lead it if we can and we surround them with input from their claim folks and their analytical support to make sure that the opportunity they're seeing is real in terms of the data.

嗯，我們對成長的看法是，我們真正信任我們的產品領導者，他們最接近市場，最了解我們的生產商的動態，以及有哪些可用資源可以告訴我們機會在哪裡，這對我們長期有利。因此，我們了解市場的所在位置。如果有人說這是一個很好的機會，那麼如果可以的話，我們希望支持他們來領導這個機會，並且我們會為他們提供來自索賠人員和分析支持的意見，以確保他們看到的機會在數據方面是真實的。

So as an example in our transportation division, our leader would tell you that that space is hardening and it's the time to lead into that. And so we want to support that by providing him insight into our loss ratio of pricing expectations where we think he's at from a loss ratio standpoint, he needs what is actually means to claim people this week, which he does very regularly to see what kind of claims are coming in. Is there anything notable from a from a risk selection or coverage standpoint that he should be tweaking.

以我們的運輸部門為例，我們的領導者會告訴你，這個領域正在變得艱難，現在是時候引領這個領域了。因此，我們希望透過讓他了解我們的定價預期損失率來支持這一點，從損失率的角度來看，他認為他需要什麼才能在本週真正地向人們索賠，他​​經常這樣做，以了解有什麼樣的索賠。從風險選擇或覆蓋角度來看，有什麼值得注意的地方需要他進行調整嗎？

And then of course, the actuaries providing him data around rate change and things. So there are opportunities -- a lot of opportunities and casual, I think liability coverages on excess coverage on transport, auto related coverages. And I think the opportunity is really across the board. It's a matter of how does that play out over the year. And how can we navigate versus our competitors? And so we don't pay attention to our competitors much. We play our games, we know based on our pricing benchmarks and tools, what we think that risk is worth. And so that's what we're going to put out there. And we'll have to see what BS.

當然，精算師會向他提供有關利率變化等的數據。因此，有很多機會——很多機會和臨時機會，我認為責任保險、超額保險、運輸保險、汽車相關保險。我認為這個機會確實是全方位的。問題在於這一年會如何發展。我們該如何與競爭對手抗衡？因此我們不太關注競爭對手。我們玩我們的遊戲，我們根據我們的定價基準和工具知道我們認為風險的價值。這就是我們要推出的內容。我們將會看到什麼是 BS。

So I would just add that just a reminder that we have no incentives for our product folks to grow. Other than to grow profitably, there's no top line targets for them. And then when you asked about tempering, I mean there's always some tempering. I think that when we lean in the markets, even when we have the expertise and track record, you know, we're, we're adding risk to the system and, we're always going to try, the factor in those risks when we, whether we're, when we're establishing re or in our underwriting approach to that market.

因此，我只想補充一點，提醒一下，我們沒有激勵我們的產品人員成長。除了獲利成長之外，他們沒有設定任何營收目標。然後，當您問到回火時，我的意思是總是需要進行一些回火。我認為，當我們依賴市場時，即使我們擁有專業知識和業績記錄，我們也在為系統增加風險，而且我們總是會嘗試將這些風險因素考慮在內，無論是在我們建立再保險時，還是在我們針對該市場的承保方式中。

So but as long as the growth is through rate increases, generally, we've been very supportive of, of those type that those type of growth opportunities where we're growing. But it's largely or almost all attributed to rating. These are markets we've all been in and now most of the markets we're talking about right now we've been in for 20 years. So these are not new markets for us.

所以，只要成長是透過提高利率來實現的，一般來說，我們就會非常支持這類成長機會。但這很大程度上或幾乎全部歸因於評級。這些都是我們都曾涉足過的市場，我們現在談論的大多數市場我們已經進入了 20 年。所以這些對我們來說並不是新市場。

And a bit more of a philosophical question kind of coming back to Prime if I may. Despite the stock reaction this quarter, your overall underwriting performance was solid, but you're dealing with a significant headwind from equity and equity investment, nonconsolidated sub which many of you is non-core and that's preventing you from controlling your own destiny. One could say you exited Maui Jim, would you ever consider exiting your remaining equity method investments or at least reduce the size of your stake? So, equity method is no longer applicable.

如果可以的話，這更像是一個回到 Prime 的哲學問題。儘管本季度股票反應不佳，但你們的整體承保業績仍然穩健，但你們正面臨著來自股權和股權投資的巨大阻力，非合併子公司的許多業務都是非核心的，這阻礙了你們掌控自己的命運。有人可能會說您退出了 Maui Jim，您是否會考慮退出剩餘的權益法投資或至少減少您的持股規模？因此，權益法不再適用。

Well, I mean if there was obviously a buyer that was willing to offer us a fair price for our investment, which we think has been a very good investment to date. I mean we're always entertaining, that we would entertain that. It's just a reminder with the Maui Jim, I mean, we were tag along. We didn't really, we didn't sell our share, separate from the total company, the new owner wanted to own all of the company. So certainly in that situation, we sell our shares of Prime with a new complete owner, but I don't think Prime and aggregate is for sale as far as I understand at this point in time.

嗯，我的意思是，如果顯然有買家願意為我們的投資提供公平的價格，我們認為這是迄今為止非常好的投資。我的意思是我們總是很有趣，我們會很有趣。這只是對 Maui Jim 的一個提醒，我的意思是，我們也跟著去了。我們實際上並沒有出售我們的股份，與整個公司分開，新主人希望擁有整個公司。因此，在這種情況下，我們肯定會將 Prime 的股份出售給新的所有者，但據我目前了解，我認為 Prime 和總公司不會出售。

I would just add too. I think if you on sorry Bill, if you look back over time, this is one quarter again, caution evaluating anything in a one quarter. Although we weren't pleased about it. But this is one quarter of many that in the first time Prime added some -- certainly some noise to the quarter. So if you go back, it's been additive but not in a big way but a growing way from that standpoint. And I think our return on our investment in Prime, Craig mentioned that the dividends have been paid to us in excess of our original investment, which is great from an average annual return standpoint, it's been a very good investment, I mean, you're in the, 20% plus range. So it's been good this quarter and certainly added noise to the fourth quarter.

我只是想補充一下。我認為，如果你對比爾感到抱歉，如果你回顧過去，這又是一個季度，要謹慎評估一個季度內的任何事情。儘管我們對此並不高興。但這只是 Prime 首次推出時為本季帶來一些變化的眾多季度之一——當然也為本季帶來了一些轟動。所以如果你回顧一下，你會發現它一直在增加，但幅度不大，但從這個角度來看，它卻不斷增長。而且我認為，我們在 Prime 的投資回報，Craig 提到，支付給我們的股息超過了我們的原始投資，從平均年回報的角度來看，這是非常好的投資，我的意思是，你的回報率在 20% 以上。因此本季表現良好，並且無疑為第四季度增添了亮點。

It's just with the slack down 10% today and that having an impact on your reported, headline numbers, it's some, essentially gains going back to like June have kind of, been wiped out and, and so I think there's some frustration out there given that that's a portion of your business that, you don't control. But I appreciate the perspective and that sort of that all the commentary.

只是今天的鬆弛下降了 10%，這對您報告的總體數字產生了影響，基本上可以追溯到 6 月份的一些收益已經被抹去了，所以我認為考慮到這是您無法控制的一部分業務，因此人們會感到有些沮喪。但我很欣賞這種觀點和評論。

Scott Heleniak, RBC.

斯科特·赫倫尼亞克（RBC）。

Just wanted to ask about the surety business. The network premiums were down a little bit. They kind of been growing, I guess all year long. So just wondering if you can kind of talk or anything you can add about 2025 what you see there in terms of, competitive environment and what you're, I don't, I don't recall hearing anything on the what rates were. Maybe I missed that. But if you could just give some detail on, the overall business, the competitive environment rates just how you're feeling about that business.

只是想詢問有關擔保業務的情況。網路保費略有下降。我想它們一年到頭都在生長。所以我只是想想知道您是否可以談談或補充一些關於 2025 年的情況，就競爭環境而言，以及您認為的情況，我不記得聽到任何有關利率的消息。也許我錯過了。但如果您可以詳細說明整體業務、競爭環境以及您對該業務的感受。

Sure, thanks. Yeah, I would say sure is a highly competitive business. The business is fairly concentrated but it, it's a business that inherently has a fairly good track record and so people do look at it and say, yeah, I wanted, I wanted some of that business. We've been in that business since 1992. So we're well versed in how it works. I would say our contract surety has grown over the last few years, continuously and notably, and that's driven by a couple of things. One would be the increased cost of construction which feeds into the rating of a of a contract bond.

當然，謝謝。是的，我想說這肯定是一個競爭激烈的行業。該業務相當集中，但它本身就擁有相當良好的業績記錄，因此人們看到它後會說，是的，我想要，我想要一些這樣的業務。我們從 1992 年起就從事這項業務。所以我們非常熟悉它的工作原理。我想說的是，我們的合約保證金在過去幾年持續顯著增長，這是由幾件事推動的。其中一個因素是建築成本的增加，這會影響合約保證金的評級。

The other being just getting in front of our producers and making more of an emphasis on asking for the business and having just great underwriters who get out there and do a good job building those relationships. And so I would see, the construction market, we have a pretty good temperature check on that. Given about a third of our book of Business Overall touches construction, whether it be the architects to the contract, general contractors, we do subcontractors, in all of our P&C spaces.

另一個就是站在我們的生產商面前，更加重視要求業務，並擁有優秀的承銷商，他們可以很好地建立這些關係。所以我認為，我們對建築市場進行了相當好的溫度檢查。鑑於我們的業務總體情況的大約三分之一涉及建築，無論是合約的建築師、總承包商，還是我們在所有 P&C 空間中的分包商。

So we also obviously see them on the contract surety world. We think that the construction market is pretty healthy. We have pretty good market info on that by region. And so I think there'll be a fair amount of opportunities in that space. On the commercial side, we've had really good growth actually over the last few years in commercial as well.

因此我們在合約擔保領域也明顯看到了它們。我們認為建築市場相當健康。我們擁有按地區劃分的相當完善的市場資訊。所以我認為該領域將會有相當多的機會。在商業方面，過去幾年我們在商業方面也取得了非常好的成長。

And I would point, to the year-to-date, we did have good growth this year as well. That portfolio has had a lot of opportunities through again, increased marketing efforts and just quality underwriters getting out there and building solid relationships with folks that produce that business. Also, we rotated away a bit from our oil and gas plugging and abandonment business, which we used to be a bigger portion of that segment. Now it's a smaller portion as the industry has changed a bit. And so we rotated into some other classes instead.

我想指出的是，截至目前為止，今年我們確實也取得了良好的成長。該投資組合透過加強行銷、優質承銷商的參與以及與從事該業務的人們建立牢固的關係，獲得了許多機會。此外，我們也稍微放棄了石油和天然氣封堵和廢棄業務，而這部分業務曾經佔據我們該部門的較大份額。現在由於行業發生了一些變化，這一比例已經變小了。因此我們輪流上其他課程。

And so that has probably tempered the top line in that part of the segment, but we think that was a good decision as well. So I think the opportunities will, will remain. The question is, what will the competition be in 2025? I think it'll be constant and, and then it'll be just as tough as this year, but we have the team that knows how to navigate that and will continue to get in front of our producers. And that's really what we've been emphasizing because, you talk to them and they say, well, because you were in front of me, I'm going to answer this submission and so the more we can get out there. I think the more opportunities we'll have. So I think we'll see some growth and surety, but it'll just depend on the competitive environment.

因此，這可能影響了該部分業務的營收，但我們認為這也是一個不錯的決定。所以我認為機會將會繼續存在。問題是，2025年的競爭將會是什麼樣的呢？我認為這將是持續不斷的，而且會和今年一樣艱難，但我們的團隊知道如何應對，並將繼續走在我們的生產商前面。這正是我們一直強調的，因為當你和他們交談時，他們會說，好吧，因為你在我面前，所以我會回答這個問題，這樣我們就能得到更多資訊。我認為我們將擁有更多機會。所以我認為我們會看到一些成長和保證，但這只取決於競爭環境。

Great, thanks. That's.

太好了，謝謝。就是這樣。

And then I just wanted to go back to your comment, Craig, when you you're being asked about capital return and I think you said the word inorganic, which I haven't heard in a while from you and just, just wondering if can, can you talk about, you haven't done M&A in a while? Is that, is that something that is kind of, has moved up the list in terms of capital return as a possibility and, and what kind of things might you look at?

然後我只想回到你的評論，克雷格，當你被問及資本回報時，我認為你說了無機這個詞，我已經有一段時間沒有聽到你說這個詞了，只是，只是想知道你是否可以，你能談談，你有一段時間沒有做過併購了嗎？這是否是某種在資本回報可能性方面上升的事情，您可能會考慮哪些事情？

I mean, we're always -- we entertain looking at opportunities all the time. We have a phone number and we also talk to bankers that have new opportunities all the time, obviously, the bar is pretty high. We're looking for people one that buy into the long term and our ownership culture, which is the -- we have to have alignment there. That's by far the most important thing. We look for track records in the space. And then the niche business. So the bar is really high. You look at a lot of things we say no, quite a bit. We get down the path quite a bit. And then someone, may be willing to offer or buy something for a lot higher value or more more dollars than what we're willing to do what we think something's worth strategically to us.

我的意思是，我們總是——我們一直在尋找機會。我們有一個電話號碼，我們也與銀行家交談，他們總是有新的機會，顯然，門檻相當高。我們正在尋找那些認同長期目標和我們的所有權文化的人，我們必須在這方面保持一致。這是迄今為止最重要的事情。我們尋找該領域的業績記錄。然後是利基業務。所以標準確實很高。你看很多事情，我們會說“不”，相當多。我們走了不少路。然後，有人可能願意以比我們認為對我們具有戰略價值的價格高得多的價格或更多的錢提供或購買某物。

So we run into a lot of challenges when it comes to that need. Not, meanwhile, we've been able to grow pretty significantly through or organic growth as well as focused on adjacency. So we are doing new things. I think Jen talked about a few of them within the businesses. I think that's a lower risk proposition. It's also less expensive risk. It's also with people that have already bought into our culture. So we've been able to grow quite a bit in that way and not, it's not always product.

因此，當滿足這項需求時，我們遇到了許多挑戰。同時，我們已經能夠透過有機成長以及專注於鄰接實現相當顯著的成長。所以我們正在做新的事情。我認為 Jen 在企業內部談到了其中的一些問題。我認為這是一個風險較低的提議。風險也較小。它也適用於已經接受我們文化的人們。因此，我們能夠透過這種方式實現相當大的成長，而且，這並不總是產品。

Sometimes it is a different way to distribute our product that we found ways to grow. So it's both the distribution as well as adding. So adding new ways to distribute, but also adding a new classes or new, new products within, within our existing space. So that way we can leverage our claim expertise, we can leverage our underwriting expertise, we can leverage systems and other fixed investments. And that's worked pretty well for us.

有時，我們透過不同的方式分銷產品，找到了成長的方法。所以它既是分佈，也是添加。因此，不僅增加了新的分銷方式，還在現有空間內增加了新的類別或新的產品。這樣，我們就可以利用我們的索賠專業知識、核保專業知識、系統和其他固定投資。這對我們來說非常有效。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

I just had a couple of sort of rapid fire modeling questions. First, can we get the breakdown of cat losses by segment?

我剛剛問了幾個快速建模問題。首先，我們能否獲得按部門劃分的巨災損失明細？

Yeah, if you look at the there was about a million and a half incurred in the casualty segment in the fourth quarter. The rest of it was property. I forgot to mention that.

是的，如果你看一下，你會發現第四季的傷亡損失約為一百五十萬。其餘的是財產。我忘了提這件事了。

No problem at all. Within casualty, was there also a prior quarter adjustment for the lost pick on the quota share with Prime or do you simply use Prime numbers?

完全沒問題。在意外險中，是否也對 Prime 配額份額的損失進行了前一季的調整，還是僅使用 Prime 的數字？

We do use Prime numbers with their numbers when it comes to the investment they did from their standpoint increased, I think on the 19 through 23 prior years and also increased their 24 accident year pick a bit as well.

當談到他們從他們的角度所做的投資時，我們確實使用了 Prime 數字，我認為前 19 到 23 年的投資有所增加，並且他們的 24 個事故年份的選擇也增加了一點。

But Mayer, I think your question was also about the reinsurance and we have historically chosen to book that number at a higher or their loss ratio at a higher number than what they are, what they booked on their own financials, which is similar to what other reinsurers, I mean, not just with Prime but but it's done all the time with reinsurers design. They have a different viewpoint than, than the underlying carrier in regards to stuff. So.

但是梅耶爾，我認為你的問題也與再保險有關，我們歷來選擇以高於他們在自己財務狀況中記錄的數字來記錄這個數字，或者以高於他們的損失率來記錄這個數字，這與其他再保險公司類似，我的意思是，不僅僅是 Prime，而且再保險公司的設計一直都是這樣做的。他們對事物的看法與底層承運人不同。所以。

Yeah. No, and I completely get the difference between, where on the income statement stuff shows up. When you look at the property, cat rate decreases and the primary rate decreases in property net net. How does that shake out in terms of expected profitability in '25 versus '24?

是的。不，我完全明白損益表上資料出現的位置之間的差異。當您查看該房產時，貓率會下降，並且房產淨額中的主要利率也會下降。就 25 年和 24 年的預期獲利能力而言，這有何影響？

Well, there I would say, it's always contingent on what kind of cats actually happened. So I would see rate decreases probably continuing a bit given the competitive environment and the cat space of property. And so as we try to hang on to our renewal, we'll see that happen. And then that could be affected by spring storms or, hurricanes or earthquakes or whatever may come to fruition.

好吧，我想說，這總是取決於實際發生的貓的種類。因此，考慮到競爭環境和房地產的貓空間，我認為利率可能會繼續下降。因此，當我們努力堅持我們的革新時，我們就會看到這種情況發生。然後這可能會受到春季風暴、颶風、地震或任何可能發生的災害的影響。

I don't know how these wildfires are going to impact the cat market. It's way too early to tell. Obviously it's a separate payroll sometimes, it's human behavior. Sometimes those payrolls seem to bleed over into why people want to buy or what they think. And then sometimes it seems like they don't. So it's very hard to predict. And we'll see how that plays out from a non cat perspective. We have seen more opportunities from different regions where people have pulled back from tornado and other types of activity.

我不知道這些野火會對貓市場產生什麼影響。現在下結論還為時過早。顯然，有時它是一個單獨的工資單，這是人類的行為。有時這些薪資似乎會影響人們的購買慾望或想法。但有時似乎並非如此。所以很難預測。我們將從非貓的角度看看其結果如何。我們在不同地區看到了更多的機會，這些地區的人們已經遠離了龍捲風和其他類型的活動。

And so we have grown our book a bit in those areas and we think we're getting adequate rate and also achieving rate increases in those areas. So even in Florida, for example, writing non wind or having a sublimit for wind and writing some fire, there can be very attractive depending on construction and different aspects of that location.

因此，我們在這些領域的業務有所成長，我們認為我們獲得了足夠的利率，並且在這些領域也實現了利率的提高。因此，即使在佛羅裡達州，寫無風或有風的子限制並寫一些火災，根據該位置的構造和不同方面，也可能非常有吸引力。

So I think the opportunity away from that business will remain healthy, especially probably given these wildfires where there might be more more behavioral change even elsewhere. So we'll have to see, I don't have a number to give you, but I think we still have a lot of opportunity in that space.

因此，我認為該業務以外的機會仍將保持健康，尤其是考慮到這些野火，其他地方的行為可能會發生更多變化。所以我們必須拭目以待，我沒有具體數字可以給你，但我認為我們在該領域仍有許多機會。

And one final question that hopefully we can answer. Do we expect a meaningful refund of earthquake premiums on structures that just don't exist anymore? Because the California wildfires, is that something that's going to impact the first quarter property segment?

最後一個問題，希望我們能夠回答。我們是否期望對那些已經不存在的建築物的地震保險費進行有意義的退還？由於加州野火，這會對第一季的房地產市場產生影響嗎？

I think if you look at our portfolio, we, since the events have been primarily residential related, I mean, there are some commercial buildings that have been impacted, but it's mostly residential and so that kind of excludes us from that issue. We could probably have a handful of commercial where they don't exist anymore. But you know, we do get a shot a lot of times at both the fire and the earthquake. So we'll just have to see how that plays out. I don't have a a specific number for you there. I don't think it'll be material. It would be my my estimate.

我認為，如果你看看我們的投資組合，由於這些事件主要與住宅有關，我的意思是，有一些商業建築受到了影響，但主要是住宅，因此我們不受這個問題的影響。我們可能會有一些不再存在的商業廣告。但你知道，我們確實多次嘗試應對火災和地震。所以我們只需要看看結果如何。我沒有你的具體號碼。我不認為這會是實質的。這是我的估計。

Casey Alexander, Compass Point.

凱西‧亞歷山大 (Casey Alexander)，指南針點。

And not to beat a dead horse on Prime. But we've all seen this type of of surprise reserve strengthening turn into a multi quarter event. But I noticed that your basis in the business declined quarter over quarter on the balance sheet. Is that simply a reflection of Prime's book value? Or is that an accounting driven, impairment of the business?

並且不要在 Prime 上浪費時間。但我們都看到這種意外的儲備加強演變成了一個跨季度的事件。但我注意到，資產負債表上的業務基礎逐季下降。這只是 Prime 帳面價值的反映嗎？還是這是會計驅動的業務損害？

We have not impaired Prime. So, I mean, if you think about we're carrying it fairly close to book value. From that standpoint, they did pay a dividend to us. So I mean, that is that that would have caused the caring basis to go down a little bit. We also pick up a share of their OCI so that they said that they had any declines on the fixed income side. If you look quarter to quarter, that would influence it with where rates went in the fourth quarter of the bulk. It's really going to be what's running through the investment, the income side, but it does, we do have the OCI. They did pay us a dividend. So those will influence that caring value. We have not impaired that investment at all.

我們沒有損害 Prime。所以，我的意思是，如果你考慮一下，我們會發現它的價值相當接近帳面價值。從這個角度來看，他們確實向我們支付了股息。所以我的意思是，這會導致關懷基礎略有下降。我們也選取了他們的 OCI 份額，以便他們表示固定收益方面有所下降。如果逐季觀察，就會發現第四季的利率走勢對它產生了很大影響。這實際上將是貫穿投資、收入方面的事情，但確實，我們確實有 OCI。他們確實向我們支付了股息。所以這些都會影響關懷的價值。我們根本沒有損害那項投資。

It, that reminds me of my second question, which is, the equity portfolio kind of underperformed the general market is that because of the elevated preferred stock exposure, which is more interest rate sensitive?

這讓我想起了我的第二個問題，即股票投資組合的表現不如一般市場，是因為優先股曝險增加，而優先股對利率更敏感嗎？

This is Aaron. We do have a portion of the equity allocation that's managed with a value orientation and that part of the allocation which is the Mino minority did under perform the broader market. So you're seeing that play through if you're if you're getting down to the components of the overall total return between stocks and bonds.

這是亞倫。我們確實有一部分股票配置是以價值導向進行管理的，而這部分配置，即米諾少數股權，其表現確實遜於大盤。因此，如果您了解股票和債券之間的整體回報的組成部分，您就會看到這種表現。

Jamie Inglis, PhiloSmith.

傑米·英格利斯，菲洛史密斯。

I sort of a odd question but can you speak to what is sort of the called the elasticity of the expense ratio relative to premium? Because I'm looking at the property segment and your, your expense goes to improve. But obviously that can continue with your premiums, don't you know, keep going. Can you touch on that a little bit?

我問了一個有點奇怪的問題，但你能說說所謂的費用率相對於保費的彈性嗎？因為我正在關注房地產領域，而你的支出將會增加。但顯然這可以繼續與您的保費有關，您知道嗎，繼續吧。能稍微談一下這個嗎？

From the standpoint of that ratio, I mean you're correct with the growth. We are leveraging that some of the fixed nature of the expense base. So some of that too, I mean, where we need to add people either to support that growth. That, that model will flex from that standpoint and that if we were to have a decline in the future that that can solve itself, you know, fairly quickly from that standpoint.

從這個比率的角度來看，你的成長預測是正確的。我們正在利用一些費用基礎的固定性質。所以我的意思是，我們需要增加一些人員來支持這種成長。從這個角度來看，這個模型將會有所調整，如果我們未來出現衰退，那麼從這個角度來看，這個問題可以相當快速地自行解決。

But, I think, that the growth in property certainly has benefited the expense ratio, not only for property, but overall has benefited from that standpoint.

但我認為，房地產的成長肯定有利於費用率，不僅是房地產，而且從這個角度來看，總體上是有利的。

Has that happened historically, when premiums in a particular segment have gone down, have the expense ratio or the expenses I should say, have they been adjusted? You know, in line? How does that happen historically?

從歷史上看，當某一特定領域的保費下降時，費用率或費用是否進行了調整？你知道，排隊嗎？從歷史上看，這是怎麼發生的？

I think if you look historically at times where we've had larger E&S growth, I think you have seen probably lower expense ratios there if you try to isolate on periods of time. But there's a lot of things that are, that are going into it certainly, even though expense ratio is down our, our overall performance, I'll mention the 86.2 combined ratio again, that does drive increased incentives, whether it's retirement profit sharing both in terms of bonus as well. That drives those, those drive higher from that perspective. So that that'll move accordingly.

我認為，如果你回顧一下歷史上 E&S 成長較大的時期，如果你嘗試隔離時間段，那麼你可能會看到那裡的費用率較低。但有很多因素肯定會影響到我們，儘管費用率下降了，但我們的整體表現，我會再次提到 86.2 的綜合比率，這確實推動了激勵措施的增加，無論是退休利潤分享還是獎金。從這個角度來看，這推動了這些，推動了更高的發展。這樣它就會相應地移動。

I think it's things are pretty well aligned with what, what, what shareholders because we are shareholders would want from an expense standpoint or a combined ratio standpoint or a growth standpoint.

我認為，這一切與股東的期望非常一致，因為我們是股東，從費用角度、綜合比率角度或成長角度來看，我們都很希望如此。

We're in this together.

我們同舟共濟。

Heather Takahashi, Thrivent.

希瑟·高橋（Heather Takahashi），Thrivent。

A couple of questions. One is on the surety adverse development. Could you just go over what caused that in the quarter? And then if you've taken any actions to address whatever caused that? And then another question, the California wildfires, do you think there could be any opportunity going forward in the market outside of California homeowners for either increased submissions, growth in E&S or higher rates?

有幾個問題。一是擔保不利發展問題。您能否解釋一下本季出現這種情況的原因是什麼？那麼您是否已採取任何措施來解決導致該問題的原因？然後另一個問題，加州野火，您是否認為除了加州房主之外，市場還可能出現任何機會，例如增加提交量、增加 E&S 或提高利率？

I know this is, I'll take the first question there. The adverse was on our contract book. It was about a million dollars. I mean that there isn't anything real, there's no trend there or, or anything to really point to. I would say that we're concerned about, and on a year-to-date basis, it's, it's pretty, pretty comparable to last year. That was, I think that the accident year there was, was maybe 21 and 22 on contract, but not a -- it's not a big item.

我知道這是，我將回答第一個問題。不利的條款已寫入我們的合約簿。大約一百萬美元。我的意思是，那裡沒有任何真實的東西，沒有任何趨勢，或任何可以真正指向的東西。我想說的是，我們擔心的是，從今年迄今為止的情況來看，它與去年的情況相當。那是，我認為發生事故的年份，可能是合約上的 21 和 22 歲，但不是——這不是什麼大問題。

I'll jump in, Heather. I would say that on contract, we have recognized that the last two years economic conditions, everybody kept predicting they're going to get a lot worse and they were, they were volatile, smaller contractors, struggle, larger contractors, did better but it was a mixed bag. It was a very individual basis. And so our underwriters do consider what happened in these claims and think about how they're analyzing the contractor to see. Are they financially secure?

我來加入，希瑟。我想說，就合約而言，我們已經認識到過去兩年的經濟狀況，每個人都預測情況會變得更糟，而且情況確實很不穩定，小型承包商舉步維艱，大型承包商表現較好，但情況好壞參半。這是非常個人化的基礎。因此，我們的核保人確實會考慮這些索賠中發生的事情，並思考如何分析承包商。他們的經濟狀況有保障嗎？

And is the construction project that they're taking on, are they able to financially support it and also get it done from an execution standpoint. So it does feed into how we underwrite risk. We do a post mortem on every claim and surety to understand what happened and how we should look at all of our contractors going forward if there's any changes in how we underwrite.

他們正在承接的建設項目是否有能力從財務上支持它並從執行的角度完成它。所以它確實影響到我們如何承保風險。我們對每項索賠和擔保進行事後分析，以了解發生了什麼，以及如果我們的承保方式發生任何變化，我們應該如何看待所有承包商。

So out of these claims, there wasn't anything, it, it's like two claims, so you're talking about a very small, sample size here. But, we did do an analysis. It didn't significantly change what we were thinking. We actually as a, as an industry contract sure does have more, frequency going on because of the economic conditions. We have not seen that frequency. We just have a couple of things. So that's kind of your answer on surety. .

因此，在這些說法中，沒有任何證據，只有兩個說法，所以您在這裡談論的是一個非常小的樣本量。但是，我們確實做了分析。它並沒有顯著改變我們的想法。實際上，由於經濟狀況，我們作為一個行業合約確實會變得更加頻繁。我們還沒看到那個頻率。我們只有幾件事。這就是你對保證金的回答。。

You also asked about California wildfire, Heather and I would say that I mean, will it create other us opportunities? I mean, I think certainly maybe in the homeowner space there's, there might be an opportunity. I don't know that we'll participate in that where we kind of shied away from the, personal homeowners space even on the ens basis. I think some of that depends on, the, what comes out of the fair plan assessments and things like that.

您還問到加州野火的情況，希瑟和我想說，它會為我們帶來其他機會嗎？我的意思是，我認為在房主領域肯定存在機會。我不知道我們是否會參與其中，我們甚至在 ens 基礎上迴避個人房主空間。我認為這在一定程度上取決於公平計劃評估的結果等等。

I think I heard a carrier yesterday talk about their future depends on what's going to happen, you know, on a go forward basis, there, you know, that they're going to assess the admitted companies. That's certainly an underfunded plan based on the exposures they've taken on. So there's there's potential assessment out there for carriers, at least on the admitted side. So, will it force other people to get into the NS space? I think certainly going to be an opportunity in the space whether it's in our space or not because I still think it's been a relatively small event for commercial relative to the residential space. So, and, and as you know, our our focus is all commercial there.

我想我昨天聽到一家航空公司談論他們的未來取決於未來會發生什麼，你知道，在未來，你知道，他們將對被接納的公司進行評估。根據他們承擔的風險來看，這肯定是一個資金不足的計劃。因此，對於承運人而言，至少在承認的方面，存在潛在的評估。那麼，它會迫使其他人進入 NS 空間嗎？我認為無論它是否在我們的領域，這肯定都會是一個機會，因為我仍然認為相對於住宅領域而言，這對商業來說是一個相對較小的事件。所以，如你所知，我們的重點都是商業。

If there are no further questions, I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Craig Kliethermes for some closing remarks.

如果沒有其他問題，我現在將會議交給克雷格·克利瑟姆斯先生作總結發言。

Well, thank you all for joining today and we appreciate all of your questions and your interest in our company a solid quarter to end another profitable year. We believe our hallmark underwriting discipline and diversified portfolio of specialty products translate into consistent financial outcomes over time and allow us to serve as a stable market for our customers.

好吧，感謝大家今天的加入，我們感謝你們提出的所有問題以及對我們公司的興趣，這是一個堅實的季度，結束了另一個盈利的一年。我們相信，我們標誌性的核保紀律和多樣化的專業產品組合將轉化為長期穩定的財務業績，並使我們能夠為客戶提供穩定的市場。

Our results would not be possible without our entire team of dedicated associate owners who understand their customer, who care for them and each other and who are competitive and strive to make us better each day, our talented workforce and unique culture are what have enabled us to be named one of Glassdoor's top 10 companies to be part of in 2025.

如果沒有我們整個敬業的員工所有者團隊，我們的成果是不可能實現的，他們了解客戶，關心客戶和彼此，具有競爭力，並努力使我們每天變得更好，我們優秀的員工隊伍和獨特的文化使我們被評為 Glassdoor 2025 年十大公司之一。

We will never lose sight of who we are and what makes us successful. I would like to thank all of our RLI associate owners for their contribution to our shared success and encourage them to keep delivering on the difference. That works. Thank you all again for participating today and we'll visit again next quarter.

我們永遠不會忘記我們是誰以及是什麼讓我們成功。我要感謝所有 RLI 合夥人為我們共同的成功做出的貢獻，並鼓勵他們繼續努力。有效。再次感謝大家今天的參與，我們下季會再來。

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to access the replay for this call, you may do so on the RLI home page at www.rlicorp.com. This concludes our conference for today. Thank you all for participating and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，如果您希望收聽本次通話的重播，您可以造訪 RLI 主頁 www.rlicorp.com。今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與並祝福大家有個愉快的一天。各方現在都可以斷開連線。