美國再保險集團 (RGA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Reinsurance Group of America Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到美國再保險集團 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Todd Larson, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給高級執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Todd Larson。請繼續。

Thank you. Welcome to RGA's Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. I'm joined on the call this morning with Anna Manning, RGA's Chief Executive Officer; Leslie Barbi, our Chief Investment Officer; Jonathan Porter, our Chief Risk Officer; and Jeff Hopson, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝。歡迎來到 RGA 2022 年第四季度電話會議。今天早上我和 RGA 的首席執行官 Anna Manning 一起參加了電話會議；我們的首席投資官 Leslie Barbi；我們的首席風險官 Jonathan Porter；和投資者關係主管 Jeff Hopson。

A quick reminder before we get started regarding forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures. Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from expected results. Please refer to the earnings release we issued yesterday for a list of important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.

在我們開始有關前瞻性信息和非 GAAP 財務措施之前的快速提醒。我們的一些評論或對您問題的回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們昨天發布的收益報告，了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素列表。

Additionally, during the course of this call, information we provide may include non-GAAP financial measures. Please see our earnings release, earnings presentation and quarterly financial supplement all of which are posted on our website for a discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.

此外，在此次電話會議期間，我們提供的信息可能包括非 GAAP 財務措施。請參閱我們的收益發布、收益演示和季度財務補充，所有這些都發佈在我們的網站上，以討論這些條款以及與 GAAP 措施的對賬。

And now I'll turn the call over to Anna for her comments.

現在我會把電話轉給安娜徵求她的意見。

Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Last night, we reported adjusted operating earnings for the fourth quarter and full year of $2.99 per share and $14.43 per share, respectively. This was a solid quarter that included favorable performance across many of our segments and business. Areas of particular strength this quarter include our Global Financial Solutions business in all regions and product lines, Asia Pacific Traditional and U.S. Group and Individual Health.

早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。昨晚，我們報告了第四季度和全年的調整後營業收入分別為每股 2.99 美元和每股 14.43 美元。這是一個穩健的季度，包括我們許多部門和業務的良好表現。本季度特別有實力的領域包括我們在所有地區和產品線的全球金融解決方案業務、亞太傳統業務以及美國集團和個人健康業務。

We continue to see very good new business activity and momentum with notable premium growth on a constant currency basis. Our product development capabilities, Capital Solutions and underwriting expertise are particular strengths that serve as valuable differentiators and are leading to first-to-market and exclusive new business opportunities. Our overall investment performance was good and the quarter saw minimal impairments.

我們繼續看到非常好的新業務活動和勢頭，在固定貨幣基礎上保費增長顯著。我們的產品開發能力、資本解決方案和承保專業知識是獨特的優勢，可以作為有價值的差異化因素，並帶來率先上市和獨家的新商機。我們的整體投資表現良好，本季度的減值損失很小。

This was also a solid quarter for capital deployment with $80 million deployed into in-force and other transactions across a range of geographies and product lines, which brings the year-to-date total to $430 million, another successful year. The transaction pipelines remain very active and broad-based across our many risks and geographies, and we expect the strong demand to continue.

這也是資本部署的穩健季度，8000 萬美元部署到一系列地區和產品線的有效交易和其他交易中，這使年初至今的總額達到 4.3 億美元，又是一個成功的一年。交易管道在我們的許多風險和地域中仍然非常活躍且基礎廣泛，我們預計強勁的需求將繼續存在。

As I look back on 2022, I am proud of our many accomplishments. First, we achieved record adjusted operating EPS of $14.43 despite absorbing $5.02 of COVID-19 claims and $0.53 of foreign currency headwinds, demonstrating the strength of the underlying earnings power of our business. Second, our client-centric solutions-oriented strategy is driving good quality new business opportunities. Third, global non-COVID underwriting experience was favorable led by our U.S. Individual Mortality Business and our Asia Pacific Traditional segment. Fourth, Global Financial Solutions had another record performance here. We completed many transactions at attractive returns, adding to the substantial underlying earnings power and the diversification of our business. Fifth, investment results were favorable, in part benefiting from higher available yields and some nice realized gains on our real estate joint ventures and limited partnerships.

回顧 2022 年，我為我們取得的許多成就感到自豪。首先，儘管吸收了 5.02 美元的 COVID-19 索賠和 0.53 美元的外幣逆風，但我們實現了創紀錄的調整後經營每股收益 14.43 美元，這表明我們業務的潛在盈利能力很強。其次，我們以客戶為中心、以解決方案為導向的戰略正在推動優質的新商機。第三，全球非 COVID 承保經驗在我們的美國個人死亡率業務和亞太傳統業務部門的帶領下表現良好。第四，Global Financial Solutions 在這方面的表現再創新高。我們以誘人的回報完成了許多交易，增加了可觀的潛在盈利能力和我們業務的多元化。第五，投資結果良好，部分受益於更高的可用收益率以及我們的房地產合資企業和有限合夥企業的一些可觀的已實現收益。

Interest rates have shifted from a multiyear headwind to a tailwind, and we are seeing a measurable benefit. And finally, I am proud of the progress we made on our ESG efforts. In 2022, we published our first sustainability report, providing transparency into our ESG strategy, targets and accomplishments and demonstrating our ongoing commitments. But as proud as I am of these accomplishments, I'm even more excited about the future. The life insurance industry delivered on its purpose during the course of the last 3 years, and RGA demonstrated its leadership position and the strength of our business and long-term client partnerships.

利率已從多年逆風轉變為順風，我們看到了可衡量的好處。最後，我為我們在 ESG 方面取得的進展感到自豪。 2022 年，我們發布了第一份可持續發展報告，為我們的 ESG 戰略、目標和成就提供了透明度，並展示了我們的持續承諾。但是，儘管我為這些成就感到自豪，但我對未來更加興奮。在過去 3 年中，人壽保險業實現了其目標，RGA 展示了其領導地位以及我們業務和長期客戶合作夥伴關係的實力。

We have a great franchise, have highly engaged and talented teams and are very well positioned in all our markets. Our business is resilient, our strategy is delivering value to our clients and returns to our shareholders, and I am optimistic about our future growth prospects.

我們擁有出色的特許經營權，擁有高度敬業和才華橫溢的團隊，並且在我們所有的市場中都處於非常有利的地位。我們的業務具有彈性，我們的戰略是為客戶創造價值並為股東帶來回報，我對我們未來的增長前景持樂觀態度。

After 17 years with RGA and more than 42 years in the insurance industry, I will be retiring at the end of 2023. As you've heard me say over many years, one of our key strengths is the depth and breadth of our leadership team. And that was certainly highlighted with the recent announcement that Tony Cheng, who has been with RGA for more than 25 years, was named President and will become CEO on January 1, 2024, upon my retirement. Tony besides being a very capable and talented executive has played an instrumental role in the growth of our business in Asia and more recently, in his leadership role overseeing EMEA and Australia. He understands and appreciates our many strengths and our unique culture, and I am confident that RGA will be in great hands.

在 RGA 工作 17 年並在保險行業工作超過 42 年之後，我將在 2023 年底退休。正如您多年來聽到我所說的那樣，我們的主要優勢之一是我們領導團隊的深度和廣度.最近宣布已在 RGA 工作超過 25 年的 Tony Cheng 被任命為總裁，並將在我退休後於 2024 年 1 月 1 日擔任首席執行官，這無疑凸顯了這一點。托尼除了是一位非常有能力和才華的高管之外，還在我們亞洲業務的增長中發揮了重要作用，最近，他在監督 EMEA 和澳大利亞方面發揮了領導作用。他了解並欣賞我們的眾多優勢和獨特的文化，我相信 RGA 會得到很好的照顧。

Thank you for your interest in RGA. And I'll now turn it over to Todd to review the detailed financial results.

感謝您對 RGA 的關注。現在我將把它交給托德來審查詳細的財務結果。

Thanks, Anna. RGA reported pretax adjusted operating income of $245 million for the quarter and adjusted operating earnings per share of $2.99, which includes the COVID-19 impact of $0.78 per share and a foreign currency headwind of $0.22 per share. The full year, we reported record adjusted operating earnings per share of $14.43, which includes the COVID-19 impact of $5.02 per share and a foreign currency headwind of $0.53 per share.

謝謝，安娜。 RGA 報告本季度稅前調整後營業收入為 2.45 億美元，調整後每股營業收入為 2.99 美元，其中包括每股 0.78 美元的 COVID-19 影響和每股 0.22 美元的外匯逆風。全年，我們報告調整後的每股營業收入創紀錄地達到 14.43 美元，其中包括每股 5.02 美元的 COVID-19 影響和每股 0.53 美元的外匯逆風。

The trailing 12 months adjusted operating return on equity was 10.3%, which is net of estimated COVID-19 impact of 1.5%. We are pleased with the solid quarterly results produced across the organization, and in other fundamental metrics such as new business production, constant currency premium growth, capital deployed into in-force and other transactions and investment returns.

過去 12 個月調整後的運營股本回報率為 10.3%，扣除 COVID-19 估計的 1.5% 影響。我們對整個組織產生的穩健季度業績以及其他基本指標感到滿意，例如新業務生產、持續的貨幣溢價增長、投入有效的資本以及其他交易和投資回報。

For the full year, our book value per share, excluding AOCI, grew 4.8% to $146.22. This was achieved after absorbing $447 million of COVID-19 claim impacts. Reported premiums were up 1.1% for the quarter, after adjusting for adverse foreign currency impacts, premiums were up 6% on a constant currency basis. For the full year, premiums totaled $13.1 billion representing an increase of 8.4% on a constant currency basis. We continue to see good momentum across our various business segments.

全年，我們的每股賬面價值（不包括 AOCI）增長 4.8% 至 146.22 美元。這是在吸收了 4.47 億美元的 COVID-19 索賠影響後實現的。本季度報告的保費增長 1.1%，在針對不利的外匯影響進行調整後，按固定匯率計算保費增長 6%。全年保費總額為 131 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長 8.4%。我們繼續看到我們各個業務部門的良好勢頭。

Turning to the quarterly segment results, starting on Slide 7 in our earnings presentation that can be found on RGA's Investor Relations website. The U.S. and Latin America Traditional segment results reflected both unfavorable Individual Mortality experience and COVID-19 claims that totaled approximately $48 million. We believe some of the excess mortality relates to the early flu season. Jonathan will provide some additional insights in a minute.

轉向季度分部結果，從我們收益演示中的幻燈片 7 開始，可以在 RGA 的投資者關係網站上找到。美國和拉丁美洲傳統分部的業績反映了不利的個人死亡率和總計約 4800 萬美元的 COVID-19 索賠。我們認為一些超額死亡率與早期流感季節有關。喬納森將在一分鐘內提供一些額外的見解。

Variable investment income was a positive contribution, although below the recent run rate. The U.S. Individual Health Business had favorable experience and our group business results were above our expectations as most lines performed well. The U.S. Asset-Intensive business results were strong reflecting favorable investment spreads and our Capital Solutions business continues to be within our expectations.

可變投資收入是一個積極的貢獻，儘管低於最近的運行率。美國個人健康業務有良好的經驗，我們的集團業務結果超出了我們的預期，因為大多數產品線都表現良好。美國資產密集型業務業績強勁，反映出有利的投資利差，我們的資本解決方案業務繼續符合我們的預期。

The Canada Traditional results reflected unfavorable experience in the group life and disability business with COVID-19 claim costs totaling $3 million. The Financial Solutions business was above expectations due to favorable longevity experience.

Canada Traditional 結果反映了團體人壽和殘疾業務的不利經歷，COVID-19 索賠費用總計 300 萬加元。由於良好的長壽經驗，金融解決方案業務超出預期。

In the Europe, Middle East and Africa segment, the Traditional business results were in line with expectations, reflecting unfavorable mortality in the U.K., offset by favorable overall experience otherwise. COVID-19 claim costs were $2 million for the quarter.

在歐洲、中東和非洲部分，傳統業務結果符合預期，反映了英國不利的死亡率，但被有利的整體經驗所抵消。本季度 COVID-19 索賠成本為 200 萬美元。

EMEA's Financial Solutions business results reflected modestly favorable experience. Turning to our Asia Pacific Traditional business. Asia results reflected favorable underwriting experience across the region, absorbing COVID-19 claim cost of $13 million.

EMEA 的金融解決方案業務結果反映了適度有利的經驗。轉向我們的亞太傳統業務。亞洲業績反映了該地區良好的承保經驗，吸收了 1300 萬美元的 COVID-19 索賠成本。

Australia reported another good quarter with a pretax profit of $6 million driven by favorable group experience. The Asia Pacific Financial Solutions business results were very strong, reflecting strong new business and favorable investment spreads. We also saw a decline in the COVID-19 costs related to medical hospitalization claims in Japan.

澳大利亞報告了另一個良好的季度，在有利的集團經驗的推動下，稅前利潤為 600 萬美元。亞太金融解決方案業務業績非常強勁，反映出強勁的新業務和有利的投資利差。我們還看到與日本醫療住院索賠相關的 COVID-19 費用有所下降。

The Corporate and Other segment reported a pretax adjusted operating loss of $89 million, higher than our expected quarterly range due to higher general expenses and some elevated financing costs. Included in the higher general expenses are some incentive compensation true-ups, consulting fees and a number of one-off items.

公司和其他部門報告稅前調整後經營虧損為 8900 萬美元，高於我們預期的季度範圍，原因是一般費用增加和一些融資成本增加。較高的一般費用中包括一些激勵補償調整、諮詢費和一些一次性項目。

Moving on to investments on Slide 13 through 15 in our earnings presentation. The nonspread portfolio yield for the quarter was 4.45%, reflecting a positive contribution from variable investment income, although lower than the recent run rate. The quarter was also positively impacted by higher new money rates as well as some benefit from existing floating rate securities.

在我們的收益演示中繼續幻燈片 13 到 15 的投資。本季度的非利差投資組合收益率為 4.45%，反映了可變投資收入的積極貢獻，但低於近期運行率。本季度還受到更高的新貨幣利率以及現有浮動利率證券的一些好處的積極影響。

For nonspread business, our new money rate was 5.05% in the quarter compared to 3.31% in the fourth quarter of last year. Our new money rate was modestly lower than the third quarter due to a more conservative asset allocation of new money and some lower spreads available. Looking at the base yield before variable investment income, we have moved from 3.78% in the fourth quarter of last year to 4.14% in this quarter. Meanwhile, credit impairments were minimal, and we believe the portfolio is well positioned as we move through a more uncertain economic environment.

對於非利差業務，本季度我們的新貨幣利率為 5.05%，而去年第四季度為 3.31%。我們的新貨幣利率略低於第三季度，原因是新貨幣的資產配置更為保守，且可用利差較低。從可變投資收益前的基本收益率來看，我們已經從去年第四季度的 3.78% 上升到本季度的 4.14%。同時，信用減值很小，我們相信隨著我們度過一個更加不確定的經濟環境，投資組合處於有利地位。

We have taken action recently to lower our high-yield bond exposure. We have also selectively extended duration to lock in higher interest rates.

我們最近採取了行動來降低我們的高收益債券敞口。我們還選擇性地延長了期限以鎖定更高的利率。

As shown on Slide 16 and 17 of our earnings presentation, our capital and liquidity position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with excess capital of approximately $1.2 billion. In the quarter, we deployed $80 million of capital into in-force and other transactions and continue to see a very active deal pipeline. We also returned a total of $78 million of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

如我們收益報告的幻燈片 16 和 17 所示，我們的資本和流動性狀況依然強勁，本季度末我們的資本過剩約為 12 億美元。本季度，我們將 8000 萬美元的資金用於有效交易和其他交易，並繼續看到非常活躍的交易渠道。我們還通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了總計 7800 萬美元的資本。

For the full year, we deployed $430 million of capital into in-force and other transactions and returned $280 million of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

全年，我們將 4.3 億美元的資本用於有效交易和其他交易，並通過股票回購和派息向股東返還 2.8 億美元的資本。

As we emerge from the pandemic and a strong 2022, we are confident in our earnings power and capital generation, and we expect to be active in the deploying of capital into in-force and other transactions and returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We have included some updated LDTI information in the earnings presentation on Slide 21. The LDTI adjustments as of January and December of 2021 are consistent with our previously provided ranges.

隨著我們從大流行和強勁的 2022 年中走出來，我們對我們的盈利能力和資本生成充滿信心，我們希望積極將資本部署到有效交易和其他交易中，並通過股息和股票向股東返還多餘資本回購。我們在幻燈片 21 的收益演示中包含了一些更新的 LDTI 信息。截至 2021 年 1 月和 12 月的 LDTI 調整與我們之前提供的範圍一致。

As of September 30, 2022, we estimate a decrease in retained earnings of $500 million to $800 million after tax compared to current financial reporting. We estimate an increase of AOCI of $2.1 billion to $4.1 billion, reflecting the higher interest rate environment.

截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們估計與當前財務報告相比，稅後留存收益將減少 5 億至 8 億美元。我們估計 AOCI 將增加 21 億美元至 41 億美元，反映出較高的利率環境。

As we have previously commented, we believe the new financial reporting standard will provide better insight into RGA's long-term performance and along with the new disclosures provide additional transparency of our business to investors.

正如我們之前評論的那樣，我們相信新的財務報告準則將提供對 RGA 長期業績的更好洞察，並與新的披露一起為投資者提供我們業務的額外透明度。

We are excited about the future and believe our well-diversified global platform and underlying earnings power positions us to continue to support our clients and deliver attractive financial returns to shareholders over time.

我們對未來感到興奮，並相信我們多元化的全球平台和潛在的盈利能力使我們能夠繼續支持我們的客戶，並隨著時間的推移為股東提供有吸引力的財務回報。

I will now turn the call over to Jonathan Porter, our Chief Risk Officer.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席風險官喬納森波特。

Thanks, Todd. As indicated on Slide 8, aggregate non-COVID-19 underwriting experience was modestly unfavorable in the quarter. We continue to benefit from globally diversified book of risks, as higher claims in some markets, were in large part offset by favorable underwriting experience in others. Total COVID-19 impacts continue to remain moderate, totaling $70 million pretax across all segments.

謝謝，托德。如幻燈片 8 所示，本季度非 COVID-19 總體承保經驗略顯不利。我們繼續受益於全球多元化的風險賬簿，因為某些市場的更高索賠額在很大程度上被其他市場的有利承保經驗所抵消。 COVID-19 的總影響繼續保持溫和，所有部門的稅前總額為 7000 萬美元。

Starting first with U.S. Individual Mortality, we experienced elevated non-COVID-19 claim costs due to higher claims frequency. Large claim experience was in line with our expectations after 2 very favorable quarters in Q2 and Q3. Our higher frequency of claims is directionally consistent with the excess levels of U.S. general population mortality as reported by the CDC.

首先從美國個人死亡率開始，由於更高的索賠頻率，我們經歷了更高的非 COVID-19 索賠成本。在第二季度和第三季度的兩個非常有利的季度之後，大額索賠經驗符合我們的預期。我們較高的索賠頻率與 CDC 報告的美國一般人口死亡率過高水平方向一致。

Non-COVID-19 population deaths continue to remain elevated, which was compounded by the first material influenza season since the start of the pandemic. Although total flu cases and estimated mortality appear to be in line with an average pre-pandemic flu season, influenza cases peaked about 8 to 10 weeks earlier than historic norms, which we believe shifted the majority of deaths into the fourth quarter.

非 COVID-19 人口死亡人數繼續居高不下，自大流行開始以來的第一個重大流感季節加劇了這種情況。儘管流感病例總數和估計死亡率似乎與大流行前流感季節的平均水平一致，但流感病例的峰值比歷史正常水平提前了約 8 至 10 週，我們認為這將大部分死亡轉移到了第四季度。

U.S. general population data continues to show COVID-19 deaths are primarily at ages above 65, where there is less life insurance exposure. In the quarter, in our U.S. Individual Mortality business, estimated COVID-19 claim costs of $44 million, which is $13 million per 10,000 general population deaths was at the lower end of our rule of thumb range.

美國總人口數據繼續顯示 COVID-19 死亡主要發生在 65 歲以上，那裡的人壽保險風險較低。本季度，在我們的美國個人死亡率業務中，估計 COVID-19 索賠成本為 4400 萬美元，即每 10,000 名普通人口死亡 1300 萬美元，處於我們經驗法則範圍的下限。

Aggregate underwriting results in all other markets were favorable, driven by strong performance across Asia. As expected, we saw a material quarter-over-quarter reduction in medical claim costs in Japan to $11 million consistent with the narrowing of eligibility for at-home COVID-19 claims reimbursement that occurred at the end of September.

在亞洲強勁表現的推動下，所有其他市場的總體承保業績良好。正如預期的那樣，我們看到日本的醫療索賠成本環比大幅下降至 1100 萬美元，這與 9 月底發生的在家 COVID-19 索賠報銷資格範圍縮小相一致。

Turning to Slide 10 in the earnings presentation. Our overall year-to-date non-COVID-19 underwriting results were strong. U.S. Individual Mortality had both favorable large claims experience and lower overall claims frequency and Asia Pacific Traditional also had very positive underwriting results across the region.

轉到收益演示中的幻燈片 10。我們年初至今的整體非 COVID-19 承保業績強勁。 U.S. Individual Mortality 擁有良好的大額理賠經驗和較低的整體理賠頻率，而 Asia Pacific Traditional Traditional 在該地區也取得了非常積極的承保業績。

U.S. Individual Health and U.S. Group results were ahead of expectations, and Global Financial Solutions underwriting results were also positive, primarily due to better-than-expected longevity experience. These favorable results were partially offset by unfavorable mortality experience in Canada and the U.K. due to both higher frequency and severity.

U.S. Individual Health 和 U.S. Group 的業績超出預期，而 Global Financial Solutions 的承保業績也很積極，這主要是由於長壽體驗好於預期。由於更高的頻率和嚴重程度，加拿大和英國不利的死亡率經驗部分抵消了這些有利的結果。

Full year COVID-19 claim costs of $447 million, with the majority of U.S. Individual Mortality was a substantial decrease from 2021.

全年 COVID-19 索賠成本為 4.47 億美元，其中大部分美國個人死亡率較 2021 年大幅下降。

That concludes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open it up for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在想公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

I had a question first on just capital deployment. Should we assume sort of a similar allocation between deals and buybacks this coming year as you've had in the past year?

我首先有一個關於資本部署的問題。我們是否應該假設來年交易和回購之間的分配與過去一年類似？

This is Todd. So it will be somewhat dependent on the level of deal activity that we see. And right now, the pipeline looks very active around our different geographies. And I think if you look back historically, it's -- we've pulled all the different levers between capital deployment into the transactions, the share buybacks and dividends. And I think you'll see us continue that going forward, but we do intend to be active to the extent there are not attractive transactions to deploy the capital, we will look to bring down that excess capital level over time through share repurchases and the dividend level.

這是托德。因此，這將在某種程度上取決於我們看到的交易活動水平。現在，管道在我們不同的地理位置看起來非常活躍。而且我認為，如果你回顧歷史，它是——我們已經將資本部署到交易、股票回購和股息之間的所有不同槓桿都拉了出來。而且我認為你會看到我們繼續前進，但我們確實打算在沒有有吸引力的交易來部署資本的情況下保持活躍，我們將尋求通過股票回購和分紅水平。

And have you -- do you see a similar environment in terms of competition for deals? Because it seems like in the nonmortality like Asset-Intensive businesses, there's just a lot more interest in those blocks from companies backed by alternative asset managers.

你有沒有 - 你在交易競爭方面看到類似的環境嗎？因為看起來像資產密集型企業這樣的非死亡率，所以由另類資產管理公司支持的公司對這些區塊的興趣要大得多。

Thank you for the question, Jimmy, it's Anna. First, let me shape out the pipelines. As Todd mentioned, our pipelines are very good. Strong demand across everything that we do and right across our geographies and various regions. Now from a competitive environment, yes, deal environment is competitive. It varies by size, and it varies by the underlying risks, so we typically will see and do see less competition when there are more complex elements of the deal or as you mentioned, when there's more insurance risks, these biometric risks. And also, we tend to see less competition on the larger size deals.

謝謝你的問題，吉米，我是安娜。首先，讓我塑造管道。正如托德所說，我們的管道非常好。對我們所做的一切以及我們所在地區和不同地區的強烈需求。現在從競爭環境來看，是的，交易環境是競爭性的。它因規模而異，並因潛在風險而異，所以當交易的要素更複雜時，或者正如你提到的，當有更多的保險風險，這些生物識別風險時，我們通常會看到並且確實看到更少的競爭。而且，我們往往會看到在規模較大的交易中競爭較少。

Now in terms of our competitive positioning, the way I think about it, Jimmy, is really our proposition is all about bringing a complete package to the table. It's in part how we differentiate from our competitors, so the package, including -- we have an excellent brand. We have a reputation for getting things done, for being creative, for finding new solutions, and we also have a reputation on delivering. We honor and meet our commitments. And we have very long and strong, well-established client relationships. You add the strength of RGA's counterparty and our long-term commitment to this business, that's a pretty complete package. And that's how we compete and that's how we win deals. And you've seen that time and time again, you've seen it through the entire time of the pandemic. And our approach is really to prioritize and pick our sweet spots, and we expect to continue to be competitive, be active and be successful.

現在就我們的競爭定位而言，吉米，我的想法實際上是我們的主張就是將完整的一攬子計劃帶到桌面上。這在一定程度上是我們如何與競爭對手區分開來的，所以包裝，包括——我們擁有一個優秀的品牌。我們在完成工作、富有創造力、尋找新解決方案方面享有盛譽，我們在交付方面也享有盛譽。我們信守並履行我們的承諾。我們與客戶建立了長期穩固的良好關係。你加上 RGA 的對手方的實力和我們對這項業務的長期承諾，這是一個非常完整的組合。這就是我們競爭的方式，也是我們贏得交易的方式。你已經一次又一次地看到了，你在整個大流行期間都看到了它。我們的方法實際上是優先考慮並選擇我們的最佳點，我們希望繼續保持競爭力、積極主動並取得成功。

The next question comes from John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 John Barnidge 和 Piper Sandler。

Premium growth in Asia declined. I know there is some 4Q true-ups that occurred last year given elevated mortality that did this time, fortunately. Now that we're arriving at a period of general improved mortality, how should we be thinking about this impacting premium growth given that dynamic in Asia going forward, but also in other geographies?

亞洲的保費增長下降。幸運的是，鑑於這次死亡率升高，我知道去年發生了一些 4Q 調整。現在我們正處於死亡率普遍下降的時期，考慮到亞洲以及其他地區未來的這種動態，我們應該如何考慮這種影響保費增長的情況？

Thank you for the question. I'll start. I would say the dynamics in Asia also reflected that in some markets through most of 2022, there were still COVID-related restrictions that were being -- that were causing new business to be at lower levels than we had seen historically. Most, if not all, those restrictions have now been lifted, so we see momentum really picking up. In terms of growth globally, as I think about growth for our Traditional business.

感謝你的提問。我會開始。我想說的是，亞洲的動態也反映出，在 2022 年的大部分時間裡，某些市場仍然存在與 COVID 相關的限制——這導致新業務的水平低於我們歷史上看到的水平。大多數（如果不是全部）這些限制現在已經取消，因此我們看到勢頭真的在回升。就全球增長而言，我認為我們傳統業務的增長。

We're driving a fair amount of that growth with the work we do with our clients on new underwriting programs. Things like simplified issue or accelerated or automated programs. But it's not just these programs. It's also providing the underwriting services for cases that are rejected or fall out of the programs. And as we've shared many times in the past, also providing the more traditional facultative services, those are for cases that require fluids or that are more complex.

通過與客戶在新承保計劃方面的合作，我們正在推動相當大的增長。諸如簡化問題或加速或自動化程序之類的事情。但不僅僅是這些程序。它還為被拒絕或不在計劃範圍內的案件提供承保服務。正如我們過去多次分享的那樣，也提供更傳統的兼職服務，這些服務適用於需要液體或更複雜的情況。

And then we layer on product development where we combine all those services, all that expertise to generate new products and new underwriting methods, it's that ability to support all of their needs. That is an advantage for us. I see that contributing to growth. We see that contributing to growth, and we see momentum picking up as we get into 2023 and beyond.

然後我們在產品開發上分層，我們將所有這些服務、所有專業知識結合起來以產生新產品和新的承保方法，這是支持他們所有需求的能力。這對我們來說是一個優勢。我看到這有助於增長。我們看到這有助於增長，並且我們看到進入 2023 年及以後的勢頭正在回升。

And my follow-up question, Todd, you had talked about a number of onetime items, some consulting fees in the prepared remarks. Is there a way to categorize that, the degree or dimension the size of that? And was any of that related to kind of work for replacement vehicle to Langhorne Re?

我的後續問題，托德，你在準備好的評論中談到了一些一次性項目，一些諮詢費。有沒有一種方法可以對其進行分類，即程度或維度大小？這些是否與更換 Langhorne Re 車輛的工作有關？

Yes, it was a variety of -- as far as the other one-off type items. There were some fees related to the push to get the LDTI implementation ready to go for 2023. There was some various sort of local and state tax items that don't necessarily flow through the income tax line but flow through the income expense -- general expense line, and just a variety of little things that added up. I would say that going forward, as our business grows and as we mentioned, there's some elevated -- of financing expenses, including interest expense, we do expect the corporate loss average run rate to increase.

是的，就其他一次性項目而言，它是多種多樣的。有一些費用與推動 LDTI 實施準備好在 2023 年進行有關。有一些不同類型的地方和州稅收項目不一定流經所得稅線，但流經收入支出——一般費用線，以及加起來的各種小東西。我想說的是，隨著我們業務的增長，正如我們所提到的，融資費用（包括利息費用）有所增加，我們確實預計公司虧損平均運行率會增加。

And for now, the size that I would say going forward, I would expect it to be more in the average quarterly loss rate to be more in the range of, call it, $30 million to $40 million, and we can revisit that as we go forward. But certainly, we're seeing an increase in that quarterly loss rate from the sort of the $25 million to $30 million we were seeing previously.

而現在，我想說的是未來的規模，我預計它的平均季度損失率會在 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元的範圍內，我們可以重新審視它前進。但可以肯定的是，我們看到季度虧損率從之前的 2500 萬美元增加到 3000 萬美元。

The next question comes from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

I guess when you look back at the full year 2022 for the U.S. Traditional business, are you able to give us I guess, a rough sense of how mortality experience was relative to your typical expectations.

我想當你回顧美國傳統業務的 2022 年全年時，我想你能給我們一個粗略的死亡率體驗與你的典型預期的關係嗎？

Ryan, this is Jonathan. I mean I think overall, we had great results for the year. So we're very happy with the results in U.S. Mortality. It was a combination of both better claims frequency relative to our expectations as well as some favorable large claims experience, in particular in Q2 and Q3 that I mentioned.

瑞安，這是喬納森。我的意思是，我認為總體而言，我們今年取得了不錯的成績。所以我們對美國死亡率的結果非常滿意。這是相對於我們預期的更好的索賠頻率以及一些有利的大額索賠經驗的結合，特別是在我提到的第二季度和第三季度。

Of course, that's excluding the impact of COVID, which, again, I think, came in at the lower end of our ranges. So for there, as we've seen the impact of COVID mortality go more into the older age groups, that's also resulted in staying at the low end of our $10 million to $20 million range, which is also positive.

當然，這不包括 COVID 的影響，我認為它再次處於我們範圍的低端。因此，就此而言，正如我們已經看到 COVID 死亡率的影響更多地影響到老年人群，這也導致保持在我們 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元範圍的低端，這也是積極的。

Do you have any quantification of the deviation versus expected?

你有任何偏差與預期的量化嗎？

Yes. I mean it's -- I think -- again, if you pull out COVID relative to our expected for 2022, which would have included some assumption for excess mortality, it would be in the high double-digit millions.

是的。我的意思是——我認為——再一次，如果你將 COVID 與我們對 2022 年的預期相比較，這將包括一些超額死亡率的假設，那麼它將達到兩位數的百萬。

The next question comes from Dan Bergman with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Dan Bergman 和 Jefferies。

I think in the past, you've talked about a $60 million to $65 million or so expected quarterly earnings range for the U.S. Asset-Intensive business. Just given the block has outperformed this range for a number of quarters in a row now. I just wanted to see if you could give any more color on the drivers of the recent strong performance, how much is from onetime items versus maybe more sustainable tailwinds like the benefit from higher interest rates. Just trying to get a sense of $60 million to $65 million is still the right range we should be thinking about? Or has that run rate moved higher?

我想在過去，你曾談到美國資產密集型業務的預期季度收益範圍為 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元左右。鑑於該區塊現在連續幾個季度的表現都超過了這個範圍。我只是想看看你是否可以對近期強勁表現的驅動因素給出更多的顏色，有多少來自一次性項目，而不是更可持續的順風，比如從更高的利率中獲益。只是想了解 6000 萬到 6500 萬美元是否仍然是我們應該考慮的正確範圍？還是運行率提高了？

It's -- yes, a lot of the variance in the quarter was due to some higher investment spread and the impact of some of the higher income on the floating rate assets allocated to that portfolio. I will remind you that the Asset-Intensive business is of a little bit of a shorter duration. So there is some amortization off each year as well that we need to replace with new business. I think the range of $60 million to $65 million on a quarterly rate, I think is -- I would stick with that for now. But certainly, I will update that as appropriate as we go forward.

這是 - 是的，本季度的很多差異是由於投資利差較高以及一些較高收入對分配給該投資組合的浮動利率資產的影響。我會提醒你，資產密集型業務的持續時間要短一些。因此，每年也有一些攤銷，我們需要用新業務來代替。我認為每季度 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元的範圍，我認為是——我現在會堅持下去。但當然，我會在我們前進的過程中適當更新它。

Got it. And then maybe just shifting gears to Australia. I just wonder if you could give any update or more color on what you're seeing there. It looks like Australia has been profitable. I think it was 4 of the last 5 quarters by my count. So -- are you at the point now where you'd expect consistent profitability in Australia? And is there a path for that business maybe to become a more meaningful earnings generator over time? Any color you can give there would be great.

知道了。然後也許只是換檔到澳大利亞。我只是想知道您是否可以對您在那裡看到的內容提供任何更新或更多顏色。看來澳洲賺到了。根據我的統計，我認為這是過去 5 個季度中的 4 個。那麼 - 您現在是否正處於期望澳大利亞持續盈利的地步？隨著時間的推移，該業務是否有可能成為更有意義的盈利來源？你可以給那裡的任何顏色都會很棒。

It's Todd. No, it's very good to see Australia producing consistent profitability. We've got a very strong team there, very well positioned in the market in Australia. We're seeing positive signs in the industry as well as far as making it a more sustainable insurance environment. So that's good as well. So we're optimistic, positive going forward that we can continue to improve the profitability in Australia.

是托德。不，很高興看到澳大利亞持續盈利。我們在那裡有一支非常強大的團隊，在澳大利亞市場上處於非常有利的地位。我們在行業中看到了積極的跡象，並正在努力打造一個更具可持續性的保險環境。所以這也很好。因此，我們樂觀、積極地展望未來，我們可以繼續提高澳大利亞的盈利能力。

Yes. And I would add on your question about meaningful -- making it meaningful -- meaningfully higher. In the past, we have not, from a competitive position, been successful on the new business side in Australia. We were just -- our view of the risk return was just quite a bit different than the clearing prices in the market. We are starting to see that come back to us. So we haven't changed our views on risk return.

是的。我會補充你關於有意義的問題 - 讓它變得有意義 - 有意義地更高。過去，從競爭地位來看，我們在澳大利亞的新業務方面並沒有取得成功。我們只是 - 我們對風險回報的看法與市場清算價格有很大不同。我們開始看到它回到我們身邊。所以我們沒有改變對風險回報的看法。

We haven't changed our targets, but we are seeing a pull towards us from the competition and expect that gradually and prudently and with discipline, we will reengage and start to grow that business.

我們沒有改變我們的目標，但我們看到了競爭對我們的吸引力，並期望我們將逐步、謹慎地、有紀律地重新參與並開始發展該業務。

The next question comes from Erik Bass with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Erik Bass。

I was hoping you could talk a bit more about the higher non-COVID mortality in the U.S. this quarter. Are you able to link the elevated claims frequency to the flu that you talked about? And I think you mentioned the CDC data indicating an earlier than normal flu season this year. So do you view some of this as a pull forward of claims that you would typically expect to see in the first quarter?

我希望你能多談談本季度美國較高的非 COVID 死亡率。您能否將較高的索賠頻率與您談到的流感聯繫起來？我想你提到了疾病預防控制中心的數據，表明今年的流感季節比正常情況要早。那麼，您是否認為其中一些是您通常希望在第一季度看到的索賠的推動力？

Yes, Erik, thanks for the question. This is Jonathan. So yes, just to reiterate what I said in my prepared remarks, this is the first material flu season since the start of the pandemic, and there is clear evidence in the general population that claims have been accelerated, probably about 8 to 10 weeks or so. I think consistent with what's showing up in the CDC data, we did see an increase in our frequency in our own claims in the second half of the quarter, and that was factored into our year-end IBNR calculation and therefore, impacted Q4 results.

是的，埃里克，謝謝你的提問。這是喬納森。所以，是的，只是重申我在準備好的發言中所說的話，這是自大流行開始以來的第一個實質性流感季節，並且有明確證據表明普通人群的索賠已經加速，可能大約需要 8 到 10 週或所以。我認為與 CDC 數據中顯示的一致，我們確實看到我們在本季度下半年提出索賠的頻率有所增加，這被納入了我們年終 IBNR 計算中，因此影響了第四季度的結果。

What we've seen so far through January, updated reporting for deaths occurring prior to the end of the year. It's consistent with our IBNR assumptions, which is good. And then looking ahead to Q1, since the flu appears to have peaked in December and has fallen off sharply in January, we would expect that the impact in Q1 would be lower than a normal historical flu season as the majority of the deaths likely have been shifted into Q4.

到目前為止，我們在一月份看到的是更新了年底前發生的死亡報告。這與我們的 IBNR 假設一致，這很好。然後展望第一季度，由於流感似乎在 12 月達到頂峰並在 1 月急劇下降，我們預計第一季度的影響將低於正常的歷史流感季節，因為大多數死亡可能已經發生轉移到第四季度。

And maybe one for Todd. You've mentioned in the past that quarterly results should be smoother under LDTI accounting, so is this an example of a quarter where under LDTI, you wouldn't have seen this material decline in the U.S. Traditional earnings since the variance in actual versus expected mortality doesn't affect your future assumptions for claims?

也許一個給托德。您過去曾提到，在 LDTI 會計下，季度結果應該更平滑，所以這是一個在 LDTI 會計下的季度示例，您不會看到美國傳統收益的這種實質性下降，因為實際與預期的差異死亡率不會影響您未來的理賠假設？

Erik, yes. So we do expect, with any of the claims volatility, the majority of the claims volatility will be smooth or muted under LDTI, it will be somewhat dependent on the underlying cohorts that the claims -- where the claims are incurred, but certainly under LDTI, we do expect the volatility to be muted and smooth over time.

埃里克，是的。因此，我們確實預計，對於任何索賠波動，在 LDTI 下，大部分索賠波動將平穩或減弱，這將在某種程度上取決於索賠的基礎群體——索賠發生的地方，但肯定是在 LDTI 下，我們確實預計波動會隨著時間的推移而減弱和平穩。

Yes. And just to add, we expect the smoothing will be both on volatility, which is severity, but it will also be on the frequency. So performance, plus or minus, all cause will, over time, get smooth because of the new accounting standard.

是的。補充一點，我們預計平滑將既涉及波動性，也就是嚴重性，但也涉及頻率。因此，由於新的會計準則，隨著時間的推移，所有原因的表現，無論是正負，都會變得平穩。

The next question comes from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a follow-up to Erik's question on the change in volatility. So is it fair to say that on the new accounting, we're not going to see as much seasonality because during -- from a historic perspective, you would have dramatically different earnings patterns throughout the quarters with obviously, 2Q, 3Q being much stronger. Will that seasonality also be smoothed out. So we're going to see kind of a more consistent quarterly earnings pattern here?

只是跟進 Erik 關於波動率變化的問題。因此，可以公平地說，在新會計準則下，我們不會看到那麼多的季節性，因為從歷史的角度來看，整個季度的盈利模式會大不相同，顯然，第二季度、第三季度要強得多.季節性也會被消除嗎？那麼我們會在這裡看到一種更一致的季度收益模式嗎？

And also, can you dimension at all for us when you say reduced volatility if we compare last quarter $5 this quarter $3, are we talking about dramatically reduced volatility? Or is it going to get cut in half? So any way you can dimension that.

而且，如果我們將上一季度 5 美元與本季度 3 美元進行比較，當您說波動性降低時，您能否為我們確定尺寸，我們是否在談論大幅降低波動性？還是會減半？所以你可以用任何方式來衡量它。

Certainly, qualitatively, I can provide some comments. So as we've always discussed in the past, our business is a very long-term business. So the impact of the new financial reporting standard does take more of a look at the long-term nature of the business and looks at the experience and the profitability over time on the business versus letting the short-term volatility flow through to the bottom line as current GAAP accounting does.

當然，定性地，我可以提供一些評論。因此，正如我們過去一直討論的那樣，我們的業務是一項非常長期的業務。因此，新財務報告準則的影響確實更多地著眼於業務的長期性質，著眼於隨著時間的推移對業務的體驗和盈利能力，而不是讓短期波動影響到利潤。正如當前的 GAAP 會計所做的那樣。

So we certainly do intend to see and we'll see a smoothing of both the positives and the negatives as far as the claims activity under the new financial reporting. I don't have specific dollar quantification for you on the call today. However, we do plan towards the late February, early March time frame to provide restated LDTI information and have a call to discuss some of those results, but should give you more information and detail behind what the impacts and the differences are between sort of old GAAP and the new LDTI financial reporting. So again, we'll plan to discuss that later on in March, early April time frame.

因此，我們當然確實打算看到，就新財務報告下的索賠活動而言，我們將看到正面和負面的平滑。在今天的電話會議上，我沒有具體的美元量化指標。但是，我們確實計劃在 2 月下旬、3 月初的時間框架內提供重述的 LDTI 信息，並打電話討論其中的一些結果，但應該為您提供更多信息和詳細信息，這些信息背後的影響和舊版本之間的差異GAAP 和新的 LDTI 財務報告。因此，我們將再次計劃在 3 月下旬、4 月初的時間框架內討論這個問題。

Okay. And then my follow-up is, can you comment on related to the flu mortality in Q4, how much IBNR did you put up dollar-wise and the range of $13 to $43,000 is a big range. Did you -- should we assume you assume middle of that? Where did you come in with your estimate?

好的。然後我的後續行動是，你能評論一下與第四季度流感死亡率相關的問題嗎？你按美元計算的 IBNR 是多少，13 美元到 43,000 美元的範圍很大。你 - 我們應該假設你假設中間嗎？你的估計是從哪裡來的？

Yes. This is Jonathan. So rather than give you the sort of the IBNR because that includes changes for things other than the flu. Maybe I can give you sort of an estimate of what we're thinking for the flu itself. So there's a wide range, like you pointed out, around the estimate of the population flu deaths. There's also a basis difference between how that translates into our book of business. But having said that, I think you can think of it sort of using our COVID rule of thumb on CDC population estimates is probably not an unreasonable way to think about the impact of the flu that would be included in the total IBNR change that we put through. So if you do that calculation, it works out to probably be in the range of $30 million to $50 million pretax of additional recognition in Q4 that's been pulled forward from Q1.

是的。這是喬納森。因此，而不是給你那種 IBNR，因為它包括流感以外的變化。也許我可以給你一些關於我們對流感本身的想法的估計。因此，正如您所指出的，流感死亡人數的估計範圍很廣。這在如何轉化為我們的業務手冊之間也存在基礎差異。但是話雖如此，我認為您可以考慮將我們的 COVID 經驗法則用於 CDC 人口估計，這可能不是一種不合理的方式來考慮將包含在我們提出的 IBNR 總變化中的流感的影響通過。因此，如果你進行這樣的計算，那麼第四季度的額外確認可能在 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元的範圍內，而這已經從第一季度提前了。

The next question comes from is Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

We usually see lower mortality for the insured population versus the general population. Yet you mentioned that your non-COVID deaths on the frequency side in the fourth quarter were directionally consistent with the U.S. general population. So I'm wondering what is driving that.

我們通常會看到參保人群的死亡率低於一般人群。但是您提到您在第四季度的頻率方面的非 COVID 死亡與美國總人口的方向一致。所以我想知道是什麼推動了這一點。

Yes, and your initial comment is totally correct. We definitely see lower population on -- in our insured book versus the general population. I guess as a relative percentage difference, though, is what I meant when I say directionally. So absolutely, our mortality is better than the general population. But when you see the percentage of general population deaths go up, that increase sort of comes through in our book of business on a relative basis.

是的，您最初的評論是完全正確的。在我們的受保書中，我們肯定會看到人口比一般人口少。不過，我想作為相對百分比差異，這就是我所說的方向性的意思。所以絕對，我們的死亡率比一般人群要好。但是，當你看到總人口死亡人數的百分比上升時，這種增長在我們的商業賬簿中是相對的。

Just one more comment. You can use the rule of thumb that we've provided for COVID as a way to sort of estimate that impact.

再多說一句。您可以使用我們為 COVID 提供的經驗法則來估計這種影響。

All right. Got it. I'm also wondering if you share the same view on escalating future mortality losses on U.S. term wire T treaties as European reinsurers that are basically reinsuring the same business. For instance, one of your European reinsurer competitors recently call that out with respect to IFRS 17 adoption.

好的。知道了。我還想知道您是否與基本上為同一業務再保險的歐洲再保險公司一樣，對美國定期電匯 T 條約的未來死亡損失升級持相同看法。例如，您的一家歐洲再保險公司競爭對手最近就 IFRS 17 的採用提出了這一要求。

Yes. So maybe on that, I mean, just to get -- go back a little bit in time, as an organization, we've actually been on the forefront of research and activity looking at postal terms, so we perform the early studies related to this came up with some industry information, which is used I think broadly across the industry. So I think we consider ourselves to be experts in this space. What we're seeing on our post level term business is that it's performing as expected after adjusting for COVID. So there's nothing specific I would point out, I guess, at this point.

是的。所以也許在這一點上，我的意思是，只是為了得到 - 回到過去一點，作為一個組織，我們實際上一直處於研究和活動的前沿，研究郵政術語，所以我們進行了與以下相關的早期研究這帶來了一些行業信息，我認為這些信息在整個行業中得到廣泛使用。所以我認為我們認為自己是這個領域的專家。我們在後期學期業務中看到的是，在針對 COVID 進行調整後，它的表現符合預期。所以我想，此時我沒有什麼具體要指出的。

The next question comes from Mike Ward with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Mike Ward。

I was wondering if you could help us thinking about the underlying annual kind of run rate earnings power for the U.S. Traditional business. I think last quarter, you mentioned you might have some incremental quantifications on this.

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們思考美國傳統企業潛在的年度運行率盈利能力。我想上個季度，你提到你可能對此有一些增量量化。

No specific update on the run rate. We certainly will be updating, as I mentioned earlier, when we provide the updated LDTI information, we can provide some more expectations under the new financial reporting standard. But we are very comfortable with that business. We do see the continued positives from the higher interest rate environment and good momentum around the new business generation as well in the U.S. segment. So we certainly will provide you better and more updated information in a few weeks here.

沒有關於運行率的具體更新。我們當然會更新，正如我之前提到的，當我們提供更新的 LDTI 信息時，我們可以在新的財務報告準則下提供更多的期望。但我們對這項業務非常滿意。我們確實看到了更高利率環境帶來的持續積極影響以及圍繞新一代業務以及美國市場的良好勢頭。因此，我們肯定會在幾週後在這里為您提供更好、更更新的信息。

Okay. And so I guess, if we think about Asia overall, as the growth opportunity for RGA. Curious about the strategy, should we think about growth in Asia as a potential maybe offset to the natural maturation of the Traditional U.S. business that you guys have spoken about in prior years? And could growth in Asia over time, change RGA's ROE or capital return strategy?

好的。所以我想，如果我們從整體上考慮亞洲，那就是 RGA 的增長機會。對戰略感到好奇，我們是否應該將亞洲的增長視為一種可能抵消你們前幾年談到的傳統美國業務自然成熟的潛力？隨著時間的推移，亞洲的增長是否會改變 RGA 的 ROE 或資本回報策略？

Thanks for that question. Very good question. So let me piece it out. I think there were a few components to that question. Strategy in Asia. So both on our Traditional business and then I'll speak to the strategy on our GFS business.

謝謝你的問題。很好的問題。所以讓我把它弄清楚。我認為這個問題有幾個組成部分。亞洲戰略。因此，無論是在我們的傳統業務上，還是在我們的 GFS 業務上，我都會談談戰略。

On the Traditional Business, really, I mentioned it before. It's around bringing a package. It's about introducing new products, supporting them with underwriting programs and services. It leads to a much better competitive position for us. In fact, many of the deals that -- and transactions that we work on are exclusive because we're taking the idea to the clients, and in exchange, we get agreement to get all of the reinsurance on that business. That's been -- that's not a new strategy. That's been a growth strategy in that Asia for quite a while. And it's been, as you can see, a successful growth strategy, but further, because of our global footprint in Asia, we can leverage the ideas, the successful ideas market to market. So again, another growth lever.

關於傳統業務，真的，我之前提到過。這是關於帶包裹。它是關於推出新產品，通過承保計劃和服務來支持它們。它為我們帶來了更好的競爭地位。事實上，我們從事的許多交易和交易都是獨家的，因為我們將這個想法帶給客戶，作為交換，我們同意獲得該業務的所有再保險。那已經——這不是一個新策略。很長一段時間以來，這一直是亞洲的增長戰略。正如你所看到的，這是一個成功的增長戰略，但更進一步，由於我們在亞洲的全球足跡，我們可以利用這些想法，將成功的想法推向市場。又是另一個增長槓桿。

On the GFS, you will also see that we've been successful and we've been growing that business. And I would point to it's an earlier stage of development. And really, it requires very deep knowledge of the business and also the conditions. And for us, what is an advantage is, we've been there for many, many years, decades. And we have boots on the ground, local teams who are very familiar, very experienced. So another growth engine for us in Asia. But I would say that also is in other markets, that strategy of product development and underwriting programs and expertise and being creative on the GFS side.

在 GFS 上，您還將看到我們取得了成功，並且我們一直在發展該業務。我會指出這是早期的發展階段。實際上，它需要對業務和條件有非常深入的了解。對我們來說，優勢是，我們已經在那裡待了很多年，幾十年。我們在當地有靴子，當地團隊非常熟悉，非常有經驗。因此，我們在亞洲的另一個增長引擎。但我想說的是，在其他市場中，產品開發和承保計劃和專業知識的戰略以及在 GFS 方面的創新也是如此。

Look, we see momentum, and we see good growth opportunities. Yes, Asia will have on balance higher rates of growth, but we fully expect to grow our business in all our regions as we move forward.

看，我們看到了勢頭，我們看到了良好的增長機會。是的，總的來說，亞洲的增長率會更高，但我們完全希望隨著我們的發展，在所有地區發展我們的業務。

The next question comes from Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

I'm still trying to kind of get clarity around these flu numbers. I know it came up in the last few questions. But if we look at the midpoint of your estimate, it's about 29,000. And if we look back historically at the flu season deaths, from, say, 2010 through 2019, it was around, say, 36,000. So was the unfavorable mortality in the quarter due to flu? Or was it something else? That's what I'm trying to get a handle on.

我仍在努力弄清楚這些流感數字。我知道它出現在最後幾個問題中。但如果我們看一下你估計的中點，大約是 29,000。如果我們從歷史上回顧流感季節的死亡人數，比如從 2010 年到 2019 年，大約有 36,000 人。那麼本季度不利的死亡率是由於流感造成的嗎？還是別的原因？這就是我想要處理的問題。

And then I think Tom was asking a question about IBNR and so forth and the pull forward. So have you lowered your assumptions next quarter for flu mortality, 2 parts.

然後我認為 Tom 問了一個關於 IBNR 的問題，等等，然後向前推進。那麼，您是否降低了下個季度對流感死亡率的假設，分為 2 個部分。

Yes. Andrew, this is Jonathan. Let me take a crack at that. So I think the -- you're right. What we're seeing in the flu data now is about the same level as the typical average flu season pre-pandemic. I guess the key difference is those deaths largely have appeared in Q4 as opposed to Q1. So it's not that the absolute amount of the flu impact will be that different probably, but it just has occurred earlier, which is why we've adjusted our IBNR at the end of the quarter. And then that's also the reason why we were talking about the pull-forward effect.

是的。安德魯，這是喬納森。讓我試一試。所以我認為 - 你是對的。我們現在在流感數據中看到的水平與大流行前典型的流感季節平均水平大致相同。我想關鍵的區別是那些死亡主要出現在第四季度而不是第一季度。因此，並不是說流感影響的絕對量可能會有所不同，而是它發生得更早，這就是我們在本季度末調整 IBNR 的原因。這也是我們談論前拉效應的原因。

So yes, I would expect, all else being equal, to see lower seasonality in Q1. It doesn't mean there'll be 0 seasonality because there are other things other than the flu, just the winter weather and other things affect mortality in the first quarter of the year, too. So -- but the flu portion of it, we think, has been shifted to Q4.

所以是的，我預計，在其他條件相同的情況下，第一季度的季節性會降低。這並不意味著季節性會為零，因為除了流感之外還有其他因素，只有冬季天氣和其他因素也會影響今年第一季度的死亡率。所以 - 但我們認為它的流感部分已經轉移到第四季度。

One other thing to keep in mind, of course, is as we switch accounting base fees, as Todd has talked about already today to LDTI, that will again mean that the full experience impacts of any seasonality will be smoothed out largely over time as well. So that will also impact what shows up in Q1.

當然，要記住的另一件事是，當我們改變會計基本費用時，正如托德今天已經談到的 LDTI，這將再次意味著任何季節性的全面體驗影響也將隨著時間的推移在很大程度上被消除.因此，這也會影響第一季度出現的內容。

And with that new accounting will you share what the actual mortality is? Is that one of the disclosures that will be required under LDTI?

有了新的會計，你會分享實際死亡率是多少嗎？這是 LDTI 要求的披露之一嗎？

Andrew, certainly, you'll start seeing some more transparency on what's going on with the underlying book of business, including when we've updated in any material manner our underlying assumptions. So you'll start seeing some of that transparency, and we can talk to that going forward.

安德魯，當然，你會開始看到基礎業務簿發生的事情更加透明，包括我們何時以任何實質性方式更新我們的基礎假設。所以你會開始看到一些透明度，我們可以就此進行討論。

Next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had is just on the leadership changes. I was wondering -- I appreciate we still have some time. I was wondering if you could sort of unpack the direction of the company and sort of how Tony fits into all of that high level as we think through that transition.

我的第一個問題是領導層變動。我想知道——我很感激我們還有一些時間。我想知道你是否可以解開公司的方向，以及 Tony 在我們考慮過渡期間如何融入所有高層。

Alex, thanks for the question. I expect that Tony will continue our partnership approach. He'll continue our solutions approach. I also believe he'll continue to focus on technical expertise and strong risk management and risk culture.

亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。我希望 Tony 能繼續我們的合作方式。他將繼續我們的解決方案方法。我還相信他將繼續專注於技術專長以及強大的風險管理和風險文化。

Tony has been with us for 25 years. He knows our people, our business. He knows our clients. He knows the industry really well. But rather than me answering the question for him, you'll have many opportunities through the course of this year to hear directly from him. So including on these calls, he'll be joining our call starting with the Q1 call, and he will be at our Investor Day, which we are hosting in New York in the summer, and Tony and I will also spend the remaining 11 months of the transition going out to see our clients, to see investors and you. So I -- great question. Thank you, but I'll leave it there and leave it for Tony to answer.

托尼已經和我們在一起 25 年了。他了解我們的員工，了解我們的業務。他了解我們的客戶。他非常了解這個行業。但不是我替他回答問題，今年你將有很多機會直接聽取他的意見。因此，包括這些電話會議在內，他將從第一季度的電話會議開始加入我們的電話會議，他將參加我們夏季在紐約舉辦的投資者日，我和托尼也將參加剩下的 11 個月過渡出去見我們的客戶，見投資者和你。所以我——很好的問題。謝謝，但我會把它留在那裡，讓 Tony 回答。

Okay. Fair enough. Second one I had views just on the sort of block transaction environment in the U.S., I mean we've heard from some companies that have had RBC impacts, whether it's from [legacy SGL] type stuff or other impacts, I think, even relating to VUL and term life and things like that under principal-based reserving and so forth. So I was just interested if you're seeing any increased activity around that to help some of these companies optimize their balance sheets a bit?

好的。很公平。第二個我對美國的大宗交易環境有看法，我的意思是我們從一些受到 RBC 影響的公司那裡聽說，無論是來自 [legacy SGL] 類型的東西還是其他影響，我認為，甚至相關到 VUL 和定期生活以及基於本金的準備金等等。所以我只是想知道您是否看到圍繞這方面的活動有所增加以幫助其中一些公司稍微優化其資產負債表？

Yes, yes. Yes, we have seen more demand on products like universal life with USLG -- ULSG. And I would say that on that risk, in particular, we have, in the past, looked at it on both the flow new business basis and on an in-force block basis. Haven't completed any deals in large part because we were too far apart from what our clients were looking for.

是的是的。是的，我們已經看到對 USLG 的普遍生活等產品的更多需求 - ULSG。我要說的是，特別是在這種風險上，我們過去在流量新業務的基礎上和有效的塊基礎上都對它進行了研究。沒有完成任何交易，很大程度上是因為我們與客戶的需求相差太遠。

Their expectations and our expectations just weren't compatible. But we are starting to see -- so I would say our participation on products like that has been limited to providing reinsurance on just the mortality risk element, and we've been successful in this part of our business, and it's performing.

他們的期望和我們的期望不相容。但我們開始看到——所以我想說我們對此類產品的參與僅限於為死亡風險因素提供再保險，我們在這部分業務上取得了成功，而且表現良好。

I would say that what we're seeing in addition to higher demand, higher interest is we're starting to see some clients adjust their expectations. So we're taking another look. We're not changing our strategy. We're not going to change our risk return approach or our targets. So not sure yet if we're close enough. But I would say the demand is there. We have all of the knowledge and capabilities to do it, we'd love to be able to support our clients for the right opportunity.

我想說的是，除了更高的需求和更高的興趣之外，我們還看到一些客戶開始調整他們的期望。所以我們再看看。我們不會改變我們的策略。我們不會改變我們的風險回報方法或我們的目標。所以還不確定我們是否足夠接近。但我會說需求是存在的。我們擁有做到這一點的所有知識和能力，我們很樂意能夠為我們的客戶提供合適的機會。

The next question comes from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

I guess I just had one more question. I know we have (inaudible) you're going to give us more LDTI info later. But just if we just remain in an endemic state and you kind of have some level of ongoing excess mortality for a period of time. I guess under LDTI, would that have a material impact on your reported results? Or is the smoothing aspect so meaningful that it wouldn't really -- we wouldn't see that come through as much anymore.

我想我還有一個問題。我知道我們已經（聽不清）您稍後會向我們提供更多 LDTI 信息。但是，如果我們只是處於地方病狀態，而你在一段時間內有某種程度的持續超額死亡率。我想在 LDTI 下，這會對您報告的結果產生重大影響嗎？或者平滑方面是否如此有意義以至於它不會真的 - 我們不會再看到它了。

No. Ryan. So we would expect, again, the way the underlying new reporting works, we would expect both any adverse mortality or positive mortality as well to be smoothed out over time. And again, we always do mention as well though, some of it may come through currently, depending on the underlying cohort where the claim activity or experience is. But the point of the new accounting is given it's a long-term business to smooth out some of the shorter-term experience.

不，瑞安。因此，我們再次預計，新報告的基本運作方式，我們預計任何不利的死亡率或陽性死亡率都會隨著時間的推移而消除。再一次，我們也總是提到，其中一些可能是當前發生的，這取決於索賠活動或經驗所在的基礎群體。但新會計的重點是，這是一項長期業務，可以消除一些短期經驗。

Yes. And Ryan, I'd also like to point out, we have other business. Yes, we have a substantial book of mortality business. But we also have a sizable book of longevity business. We're at a stage now where we cover roughly 2 million pensioners and have present value of future benefits in the order of $70-plus billion. So with the environment that you've sort of sketched out, there are offsets in other parts of our business. And then when we consider that yields have turned -- available yields have turned from a multi-decade headwind for us to this tailwind, we're really confident in the power of the earnings in this global business.

是的。瑞安，我還想指出，我們還有其他業務。是的，我們有大量關於死亡率的業務。但我們也有大量的長壽業務。我們現在處於這樣一個階段，我們覆蓋了大約 200 萬養老金領取者，未來福利的現值約為 70 多億美元。因此，對於您勾勒出的環境，我們業務的其他部分存在抵消。然後，當我們考慮到收益率已經轉變——可用收益率已經從對我們來說數十年的不利因素轉變為有利因素時，我們真的對這一全球業務的盈利能力充滿信心。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Anna Manning for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Anna Manning，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Thank you for your questions and your continued interest in RGA. As we stated throughout this call, this was a solid quarter and 2022 was a very strong year. It demonstrates the continued resilience and earnings power of our business, we're well positioned in our markets to capitalize on the growth opportunities we see right across our global platform. And I remain confident that we will continue to deliver substantial long-term value for our investors. Thank you, and that concludes our fourth quarter call.

感謝您提出問題以及您對 RGA 的持續關注。正如我們在整個電話會議中所說的那樣，這是一個穩健的季度，而 2022 年是非常強勁的一年。它展示了我們業務的持續彈性和盈利能力，我們在我們的市場中處於有利地位，可以利用我們在全球平台上看到的增長機會。我仍然相信，我們將繼續為我們的投資者創造可觀的長期價值。謝謝，我們的第四季度電話會議到此結束。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。