美國再保險集團 (RGA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Reinsurance Group of America's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎來到美國再保險集團 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note that this event is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Todd Larson, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給高級執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Todd Larson。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to RGA's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. I'm joined on the call this morning with Anna Manning, RGA's President and Chief Executive Officer; Leslie Barbi, Chief Investment Officer; Jonathan Porter, Chief Risk Officer; and Jeff Hopson, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到 RGA 2022 年第三季度電話會議。今天早上我和 RGA 總裁兼首席執行官 Anna Manning 一起參加了電話會議； Leslie Barbi，首席投資官；喬納森·波特，首席風險官；和投資者關係主管 Jeff Hopson。

A quick reminder about forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures. Some of our comments or answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from expected results. Please refer to the earnings release we issued yesterday for a list of important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results. Additionally, during the course of this call, information we provide may include non-GAAP financial measures. Please see our earnings release, earnings presentation, quarterly financial supplement, all of which are posted on our website for a discussion of these terms and reconciliations to GAAP measures.

關於前瞻性信息和非 GAAP 財務措施的快速提醒。我們的一些評論或對您問題的回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們昨天發布的收益報告，了解可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要因素列表。此外，在此次電話會議期間，我們提供的信息可能包括非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們的收益發布、收益演示、季度財務補充，所有這些都發佈在我們的網站上，以討論這些條款和與 GAAP 措施的對賬。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Anna for her comments.

現在我想把電話轉給安娜聽取她的意見。

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Last night, we reported adjusted operating earnings per share of $5.20, another very strong quarter following the record level of earnings in the second quarter.

謝謝你，托德。早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。昨晚，我們報告調整後的每股營業收益為 5.20 美元，這是繼第二季度創紀錄的收益水平之後的又一個非常強勁的季度。

The results this quarter include favorable performance across many of our segments and businesses. As well, new business activity and production levels were robust and encouraging, and we have started to see some tangible benefits from higher investment yields. The COVID-19 claim costs were comfortably absorbed, and our underlying non-COVID-19 mortality experience was favorable in many of our markets. Segments of particular strength this quarter include U.S. and Latin America Traditional, Asia Traditional and U.S. Asset-Intensive. In the U.S. and Latin America Traditional segment, the Individual Mortality business performed very well with favorable underlying mortality experience and a modest impact from COVID-19. The U.S. Group and Individual Health businesses also performed very well.

本季度的業績包括我們許多部門和業務的良好表現。同樣，新的商業活動和生產水平強勁且令人鼓舞，我們已經開始看到更高的投資收益率帶來的一些實實在在的好處。 COVID-19 索賠成本被輕鬆吸收，我們的潛在非 COVID-19 死亡率經驗在我們的許多市場中都是有利的。本季度特別強勁的細分市場包括美國和拉丁美洲傳統、亞洲傳統和美國資產密集型。在美國和拉丁美洲傳統細分市場，個人死亡率業務表現良好，基本死亡率經驗良好，COVID-19 的影響不大。美國集團和個人健康業務也表現出色。

In the Asia Traditional segment, we continue to see strong overall performance. And our client-centric product development capabilities and underwriting expertise continues to solidify our market leadership in the region. Reported premium growth was 4.9% and 10.1% on a constant FX basis, reflecting the strong new business activity I mentioned earlier. We had another good quarter for capital deployment, putting $100 million into in-force and other transactions, bringing the year-to-date total to $351 million. Our transaction pipelines remain very active and broad-based across many risks and geographies, and we expect this good momentum to continue.

在亞洲傳統市場，我們繼續看到強勁的整體表現。我們以客戶為中心的產品開發能力和承保專業知識繼續鞏固我們在該地區的市場領導地位。按固定匯率計算，報告的保費增長分別為 4.9% 和 10.1%，反映了我之前提到的強勁的新業務活動。我們在資本部署方面又迎來了一個不錯的季度，將 1 億美元用於有效交易和其他交易，使年初至今的總額達到 3.51 億美元。我們的交易管道在許多風險和地區仍然非常活躍和廣泛，我們預計這種良好勢頭將繼續下去。

This quarter's result helped to underscore the substantial additional value and earnings power we've added in the last few years through focused execution on our strategy, and we are in a great position to continue this momentum going forward.

本季度的業績有助於突顯我們在過去幾年中通過集中執行我們的戰略而增加的可觀附加價值和盈利能力，並且我們處於繼續保持這種勢頭的有利位置。

The life insurance industry has proven its value during the pandemic, and we expect the increase in demand for protection products to continue. I believe that RGA's value proposition has been amplified throughout the pandemic as we have worked closely with our clients, helping them navigate through increasing levels of uncertainty. Further, our client-centric partnership efforts are translating into more exclusive opportunities as well as additional arrangements combining our value-added services and solutions.

人壽保險行業在大流行期間證明了其價值，我們預計對保障產品的需求將繼續增加。我相信 RGA 的價值主張在整個大流行期間得到了放大，因為我們與客戶密切合作，幫助他們應對越來越多的不確定性。此外，我們以客戶為中心的合作努力正在轉化為更多獨家機會以及結合我們的增值服務和解決方案的額外安排。

These last few years have reinforced the strength of this client strategy. For example, in the U.S. individual market, we are seeing new business from key clients in recognition of underwriting services that accelerate policy issuance through digital and data solutions. In addition, our facultative underwriting support, which provides valuable capacity to our clients are seeing nice growth through expanded programs and new clients.

最近幾年加強了這一客戶戰略的實力。例如，在美國個人市場，我們看到主要客戶的新業務認可通過數字和數據解決方案加速保單發行的承保服務。此外，我們的兼職承銷支持為我們的客戶提供了寶貴的能力，通過擴展項目和新客戶，實現了良好的增長。

In Asia, I am very pleased with work we've just completed for a large market-leading client to develop an innovative first-to-market product, providing access to protection that was previously not available. Because of RGA's leadership and partnership and the development efforts, this new product will be co-promoted within our client's large distribution network, creating value for their distributors and consumers while also enhancing RGA's visibility and brand recognition.

在亞洲，我對我們剛剛為一家大型市場領先客戶完成的工作感到非常高興，該客戶開發了一種創新的首次上市產品，提供了以前無法獲得的保護。由於 RGA 的領導和合作夥伴關係以及開發努力，這一新產品將在我們客戶的大型分銷網絡內共同推廣，為他們的分銷商和消費者創造價值，同時也提高 RGA 的知名度和品牌認知度。

In another recent example, our team in Italy closed its largest health deal to date with expected annual reinsurance premiums of over $50 million. We delivered a novel reinsurance structure to address specific client needs by leveraging the deep market knowledge of our local Italian team, combined with the experience and expertise of our global health team. These are just a few examples of partnership initiatives with our clients that help to differentiate us while also providing us the ability to better manage competitive dynamics.

在最近的另一個例子中，我們在意大利的團隊完成了迄今為止最大的醫療保健交易，預計年度再保險保費超過 5000 萬美元。我們利用我們當地意大利團隊的深厚市場知識，結合我們全球健康團隊的經驗和專業知識，提供了一種新穎的再保險結構來滿足特定客戶的需求。這些只是與我們的客戶建立夥伴關係計劃的幾個例子，這些計劃有助於我們脫穎而出，同時也使我們能夠更好地管理競爭動態。

Turning to another important earnings growth lever, interest rates. Higher interest rates and investment yields are a notable earnings positive for us as future cash flows in many of our biometric businesses can be reinvested at higher rates than in the past. What for us had been a steady headwind over many years, is now moving into becoming a measurable tailwind, and we would expect to see continued benefits going forward if these higher rates are sustained. We have a great franchise, and we are well positioned around the world. Our business is resilient. We've successfully managed through periods of elevated risk and uncertainty. And this quarter continues to demonstrate our many strengths. As I think about the future, I am very encouraged by the dynamics we are seeing in the underlying life insurance industry and I remain optimistic and confident in our ability to continue to create substantial long-term value for our investors. Thank you for your interest in RGA.

轉向另一個重要的盈利增長槓桿，即利率。更高的利率和投資收益率對我們來說是一個顯著的積極收益，因為我們許多生物識別業務的未來現金流可以以比過去更高的利率進行再投資。對我們來說，多年來一直是一個穩定的逆風，現在正在變成一個可衡量的順風，如果這些較高的利率持續下去，我們預計會看到持續的好處。我們擁有出色的特許經營權，而且我們在世界各地都處於有利地位。我們的業務具有彈性。我們已經成功度過了風險和不確定性升高的時期。本季度繼續展示我們的許多優勢。當我思考未來時，我對我們在基礎人壽保險行業看到的動態感到非常鼓舞，我對我們繼續為投資者創造可觀的長期價值的能力保持樂觀和信心。感謝您對 RGA 的關注。

I'll now hand it over to Todd to review the detailed financial results.

我現在將其交給托德審查詳細的財務結果。

Thanks, Anna. RGA reported pretax adjusted operating income of $452 million for the quarter, and adjusted operating earnings per share of $5.20 per share, which includes a COVID-19 impact of $1 per share and a foreign currency headwind of $0.15 per share. We consider this to be a very strong quarter and demonstrates the strength of RGA's earnings power. We are pleased with the performance across the range of fundamental metrics such as new business production, premium growth, capital deployed into transactions, underwriting results and investment returns. The trailing 12-month adjusted operating return on equity was 7.9%, which is net of estimated COVID-19 impact of 3.9%.

謝謝，安娜。 RGA 報告本季度稅前調整後營業收入為 4.52 億美元，調整後每股營業收入為 5.20 美元，其中包括每股 1 美元的 COVID-19 影響和每股 0.15 美元的外匯逆風。我們認為這是一個非常強勁的季度，證明了 RGA 的盈利能力。我們對新業務生產、保費增長、交易資本配置、承保業績和投資回報等一系列基本指標的表現感到滿意。過去 12 個月的調整後經營股本回報率為 7.9%，扣除 COVID-19 估計的 3.9% 影響。

Turning to the segment results listed on Slide 6 and 7 of the earnings presentation. Reported premiums were up 4.9% after adjusting for adverse foreign currency impact of $160 million, premiums were up 10.1% on a constant currency basis, highlighting good business momentum across our various segments. Because of the significant currency movements in the quarter, I wanted to give you a region-by-region summary. Canada Traditional reported premium increase of 1.2% and in constant currency increased 5.2%. EMEA Traditional reported an increase of 0.9% in premiums. However, in constant currency, premiums increased 16.7%. Asia Pacific Traditional reported a 5.4% increase in premiums and in constant currency were up 13.4%.

轉向收益演示幻燈片 6 和 7 中列出的部門結果。在調整 1.6 億美元的不利外幣影響後，報告保費增長 4.9%，按固定匯率計算保費增長 10.1%，突顯出我們各個部門的良好業務勢頭。由於本季度貨幣走勢顯著，我想按地區給大家做一個總結。 Canada Traditional 報告保費增長 1.2%，按固定匯率計算增長 5.2%。 EMEA Traditional 報告保費增長 0.9%。然而，按固定匯率計算，保費增長了 16.7%。亞太地區傳統保費增長 5.4%，按固定匯率計算增長 13.4%。

Now turning to the segment earnings results. The U.S. and Latin America Traditional segment results were very strong, reflecting both favorable Individual Mortality experience and modest COVID-19 claims that totaled approximately $52 million. Variable investment income was in line with our expectations, although below the recent run rate. The U.S. Individual Health business had favorable experience overall, including an assumption update to the disabled life reserve. Our group business results were above our expectations as most lines performed well. The U.S. Asset-Intensive business results reflected favorable overall experience and higher investment spreads. Our Capital Solutions business continues to perform well, and within our expectations. Both the Canada Traditional and Financial Solutions segment results were in line with expectations with COVID-19 claim cost of $3 million.

現在轉向分部收益結果。美國和拉丁美洲傳統分部的業績非常強勁，既反映了有利的個人死亡率經驗，也反映了總計約 5200 萬美元的適度 COVID-19 索賠。可變投資收益符合我們的預期，但低於近期運行率。美國個人健康業務總體上有良好的經驗，包括對殘疾人生命儲備的假設更新。由於大多數線路表現良好，我們的集團業務業績超出了我們的預期。美國資產密集型業務的業績反映了有利的整體經驗和更高的投資利差。我們的資本解決方案業務繼續表現良好，符合我們的預期。加拿大傳統和金融解決方案部門的業績均符合預期，COVID-19 索賠成本為 300 萬加元。

In Europe, Middle East and Africa segment, the Traditional business results reflected unfavorable U.K. mortality experience, partially offset by favorable results in other markets. COVID-19 claim costs were $5 million for the quarter. EMEA's Financial Solutions business results were somewhat below expectations, reflecting some client reporting updates.

在歐洲、中東和非洲部分，傳統業務結果反映了英國不利的死亡率經驗，部分被其他市場的有利結果所抵消。本季度 COVID-19 索賠成本為 500 萬美元。 EMEA 的金融解決方案業務結果略低於預期，反映了一些客戶報告的更新。

Turning to our Asia Pacific Traditional business. Asia results reflected favorable underwriting experience across the region, absorbing COVID-19 claim costs of $7 million, primarily in Japan. Australia reported a modest profit in the quarter driven by favorable group experience, and absorbing $1 million of COVID-19 claim costs. The Asia Pacific Financial Solutions business results were impacted in the quarter due to $21 million in COVID-19-related medical claims in Japan for in-home sickness benefits, but would have been strong otherwise due to new transactions and higher yields. As you've heard from others in the industry, and as Jonathan will shortly discuss, we expect the volume of these claims to decrease materially going forward.

轉向我們的亞太傳統業務。亞洲的業績反映了該地區良好的承保經驗，吸收了 700 萬美元的 COVID-19 索賠成本，主要是在日本。澳大利亞報告稱，由於良好的團隊體驗以及 100 萬美元的 COVID-19 索賠成本，澳大利亞在本季度實現了適度的利潤。由於日本有 2100 萬美元的 COVID-19 相關醫療索賠用於家庭疾病福利，亞太金融解決方案業務業績在本季度受到影響，但由於新交易和更高的收益率，否則本會表現強勁。正如您從業內其他人那裡聽到的那樣，正如 Jonathan 將很快討論的那樣，我們預計這些索賠的數量將在未來大幅減少。

The Corporate and Other segment reported a pretax adjusted operating loss of $56 million, higher than our expected quarterly range due to higher general expenses and interest expense. I would note that on a year-to-date basis, results are in line within our expected range.

由於一般費用和利息費用增加，公司和其他部門報告稅前調整後經營虧損為 5600 萬美元，高於我們預期的季度範圍。我會注意到，從年初至今，結果符合我們的預期範圍。

Moving on to investments on slides 8 through 10 in our earnings presentation. The nonspread portfolio yield for the quarter was 4.4%, reflecting variable investment income that was lower than the recent run rate, but was positively impacted by a much higher new money rate as well as some benefit to existing floating rate securities. For nonspread business, our new money rate rose to 5.35% in the quarter compared to 3.31% in the fourth quarter of last year, a fairly good increase in a short period of time. The new money rate benefited from an increase in both risk-free rates and credit spreads.

在我們的收益演示中繼續幻燈片 8 到 10 的投資。本季度的非利差投資組合收益率為 4.4%，反映可變投資收入低於近期運行率，但受到更高的新貨幣利率以及現有浮動利率證券的一些好處的積極影響。對於非利差業務，本季度我們的新貨幣利率從去年第四季度的 3.31% 升至 5.35%，在短時間內實現了相當不錯的增長。新貨幣利率受益於無風險利率和信用利差的增加。

Looking at a base yield, which is before variable investment income, we have moved from 3.78% in the fourth quarter of last year to 4.12% this quarter. Meanwhile, credit impairments were minimal at $14 million, and we believe the portfolio is well positioned as we move through a more uncertain economic environment.

看看可變投資收入之前的基本收益率，我們已經從去年第四季度的 3.78% 上升到本季度的 4.12%。與此同時，信用減值降至 1400 萬美元的最低水平，我們相信隨著我們度過更加不確定的經濟環境，該投資組合處於有利地位。

As shown on slides 11 and 12 of our earnings presentation, our capital position remained strong, and we ended the quarter with excess capital of approximately $1.3 billion, which includes an incremental increase from the recent hybrid debt issuance. We deployed $100 million of capital into in-force and other transactions, and continue to see very attractive deal pipelines.

如我們收益報告的幻燈片 11 和 12 所示，我們的資本狀況依然強勁，本季度末我們的資本過剩約為 13 億美元，其中包括最近發行的混合債券帶來的增量資本。我們將 1 億美元的資金用於有效交易和其他交易，並繼續看到非常有吸引力的交易渠道。

We also returned a total of $75 million of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We believe our well-diversified global platform and underlying earnings power positions us to continue to support our clients and deliver attractive financial returns to our shareholders over time.

我們還通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了總計 7500 萬美元的資本。我們相信，我們多元化的全球平台和潛在的盈利能力使我們能夠繼續支持我們的客戶，並隨著時間的推移為我們的股東提供有吸引力的財務回報。

I will now turn the call over to Jonathan Porter, our Chief Risk Officer.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席風險官喬納森波特。

Thanks, Todd. Overall, non-COVID-19 claims experience was favorable this quarter with notable positive contributions in the U.S. and Asia. COVID-19 claim costs were moderate with an estimated impact of $89 million this quarter, down significantly from the $485 million reported in the same period last year.

謝謝，托德。總體而言，本季度非 COVID-19 理賠體驗良好，在美國和亞洲做出了顯著的積極貢獻。 COVID-19 索賠成本適中，本季度估計影響為 8900 萬美元，大大低於去年同期報告的 4.85 億美元。

Starting first with U.S. Individual Mortality. Strong overall underwriting results reflect favorable non-COVID-19 large claims experience in the quarter. Estimated COVID-19 claim costs of $45 million in U.S. Individual Mortality were $11 million per 10,000 general population deaths, at the low end of our rule of thumb range. This result is consistent with the continuing trend of a declining proportion of general population deaths at ages below 65, where there is more life insurance exposure.

首先從美國個人死亡率開始。強勁的整體承保業績反映了本季度有利的非 COVID-19 大額索賠經驗。美國個人死亡率的 COVID-19 索賠成本估計為 4500 萬美元，為每 10,000 名普通人口死亡 1100 萬美元，處於我們經驗法則範圍的低端。這一結果與 65 歲以下一般人口死亡比例下降的持續趨勢一致，其中有更多的人壽保險敞口。

Turning to Asia Pacific. As Todd mentioned, COVID-19-related medical claims in Japan were elevated this quarter with a combined claim cost estimate of $34 million, split between our Traditional and Financial Solutions segments. This result was driven by an unprecedented number of COVID-19 infections in the Japanese general population, which saw an average reported daily case count of 130,000 in the quarter, combined with the government-supported industry practice of paying claims on hospital benefit policies for at-home care to reduce potential pressure on the medical system.

轉向亞太地區。正如托德所提到的，本季度日本與 COVID-19 相關的醫療索賠有所增加，索賠總成本估計為 3400 萬美元，分為我們的傳統解決方案和金融解決方案部門。這一結果是由日本普通人群中史無前例的 COVID-19 感染數量推動的，該季度平均每天報告的病例數為 130,000，再加上政府支持的行業做法，即支付醫院福利政策索賠的時間為 at -家庭護理，以減少對醫療系統的潛在壓力。

Looking ahead, we expect that future medical claim costs in Japan will be materially reduced for 2 reasons. First, new infections have dropped significantly in the general population with case counts averaging 33,000 per day in October. And second, effective September 26, the government of Japan changed requirements so that COVID-19 related at-home medical claims will only be covered for a subset of the most at-risk individuals, the elderly, pregnant women and those with preexisting medical conditions. We expect that this change of definition will further reduce go-forward medical claims by approximately 2/3. Total COVID-19 claim costs on all other businesses totaled $10 million, with nothing material to note by country or segment.

展望未來，我們預計日本未來的醫療索賠成本將大幅降低，原因有兩個。首先，普通人群的新感染病例顯著下降，10 月份平均每天新增 33,000 例病例。其次，自 9 月 26 日起，日本政府更改了要求，以便僅涵蓋部分高危人群、老年人、孕婦和有既往疾病的人群的與 COVID-19 相關的居家醫療索賠.我們預計這一定義的改變將進一步減少大約 2/3 的前瞻性醫療索賠。所有其他企業的 COVID-19 索賠總成本總計 1000 萬美元，沒有任何國家或部門需要注意的重大事項。

We remain optimistic about the favorable trends in COVID-19 claim costs. And although there is still uncertainty on how the pandemic will evolve, we believe that future impacts will continue to diminish and be manageable.

我們對 COVID-19 索賠成本的有利趨勢保持樂觀。儘管大流行病將如何演變仍存在不確定性，但我們相信未來的影響將繼續減弱並處於可控範圍內。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We would now like to open it up for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在想公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question here will come from Erik Bass with Autonomous Research.

（操作員說明）我們在這裡的第一個問題將來自自主研究的 Erik Bass。

So you've now delivered 2 quarters in a row with ROE is well above 10%. And I realize there are a lot of moving pieces. But given where interest rates are and the capital that you've been able to deploy the last couple of years, should we think about your historical ROE targets of 10% to 12% being a reasonable expectation for the go-forward earnings power?

所以你現在已經連續兩個季度交付，ROE 遠高於 10%。我意識到有很多動人的片段。但考慮到利率水平和您過去幾年能夠部署的資本，我們是否應該將您 10% 至 12% 的歷史 ROE 目標視為對未來盈利能力的合理預期？

Erik, this is Todd. Yes. No, we're proud of the strong results we've achieved the last couple of quarters. I think it, again, highlights the positive momentum of our business and our successful execution of our strategy. I would be -- we do have some seasonality and some variances that are both positive and negative. So I'd be careful just to simply extrapolate out the 2 strong quarters without some -- looking at it a little bit closer. But given the capital we've been able to deploy over the course of the last couple of years, the underlying earnings power that we have. We're not going to -- we will update some of our targets as we get into next year under the new financial reporting base fees. But I would say, based on what we're seeing, definitely, there's some upward pressure on what we can deliver from the ROE front, if things continue the way they are.

埃里克，這是托德。是的。不，我們為過去幾個季度取得的強勁業績感到自豪。我認為這再次凸顯了我們業務的積極勢頭和我們戰略的成功執行。我會 - 我們確實有一些季節性和一些正負差異。因此，我會小心地簡單地推斷出 2 個強勁的季度而沒有一些 - 仔細觀察一下。但考慮到我們在過去幾年中能夠部署的資本，以及我們擁有的潛在盈利能力。我們不會 - 我們將在明年根據新的財務報告基本費用更新我們的一些目標。但我要說的是，根據我們所看到的情況，如果事情繼續這樣下去，我們可以從 ROE 方面交付的東西肯定會有一些上行壓力。

And then maybe a question for Jonathan. So hoping you could talk a little bit more about the mortality experience in the U.S. this quarter. And as COVID cases are coming down, and you're starting to get more data, are you seeing non-COVID mortality trends normalize as well? And does this change [reform] your view at all about sort of a pull forward of claims that may have happened during the pandemic?

然後可能有一個問題要問 Jonathan。所以希望你能多談談本季度美國的死亡率經歷。隨著 COVID 病例下降，您開始獲得更多數據，您是否看到非 COVID 死亡率趨勢也正常化？這是否會完全改變 [改革] 您對大流行期間可能發生的索賠的某種看法？

Yes, sure, Erik. So first, I mean, as we know, it was a good quarter for experience in U.S. mortality -- Individual Mortality, which is great to see. A lot of the non-COVID gains this quarter were driven by large claims, positive, so lower-than-expected large claims, which is the main contributor. As far as excess mortality goes, we did see an increase in the general population, excess mortality according to CDC data this quarter. We didn't see this translate into a material impact in our claims numbers, though, for the U.S. individual business. And again, any amount that would have been in there would have been more than covered by the favorable experience on large claims.

是的，當然，埃里克。所以首先，我的意思是，正如我們所知，這是美國死亡率經驗的好季度 - 個人死亡率，這很高興看到。本季度的許多非 COVID 收益是由大額索賠推動的，積極的，因此低於預期的大額索賠是主要貢獻者。就超額死亡率而言，根據 CDC 本季度的數據，我們確實看到總人口增加，超額死亡率。不過，對於美國個體企業，我們沒有看到這對我們的索賠數字產生重大影響。再一次，任何本來應該存在的金額都會超過大額索賠的有利經驗所涵蓋的金額。

One other point to note is we did have a favorable experience in our U.S. group mortality results as well. So I think all those point to excess mortality not being a major driver for us this quarter. Thinking about the pull forward of mortality, it is likely we are getting some benefit from this. We believe it's still a modest tailwind though. So we haven't changed our view on this from prior quarters. And it will be spread out over a number of future years. Of course, it's difficult to estimate exactly what that pull forward is, given some of the variables involved in the calculations. But yes, I do think that will help create some more momentum. I think if we think about COVID evolving, going into 2023, I would still expect that we're going to see a net headwind from COVID even after taking into account that pull-forward benefit that we might be seeing.

另一點需要注意的是，我們在美國的群體死亡率結果方面也確實有過良好的經驗。所以我認為所有這些都表明死亡率過高並不是本季度我們的主要驅動力。考慮到死亡率的提前，我們可能會從中受益。不過，我們認為這仍然是一個適度的順風。因此，我們沒有改變前幾個季度對此的看法。它將在未來幾年內展開。當然，考慮到計算中涉及的一些變量，很難準確估計前拉力是多少。但是，是的，我確實認為這將有助於創造更多動力。我認為，如果我們考慮到 COVID 的發展，進入 2023 年，我仍然希望我們會看到 COVID 帶來的淨逆風，即使考慮到我們可能會看到的前拉收益。

And our next question will come from Dan Bergman with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Dan Bergman 和 Jefferies。

I guess with all the moving pieces, I wanted to see if you could help quantify some of the variances in U.S. Traditional this quarter, including how underwriting results compared to your expectations in individual group and the Individual Health businesses as well as that Individual Health assumption update that you mentioned. And just given the recent premium growth and the benefit you're hopefully seeing from higher interest rates, and any updated thoughts on the run rate annual earnings level you'd expect in U.S. Traditional would be helpful.

我想對於所有變動的部分，我想看看您是否可以幫助量化本季度美國傳統保險的一些差異，包括承保結果與您對個人團體和個人健康業務的期望以及個人健康假設相比如何更新你提到的。考慮到最近的保費增長和您希望從更高的利率中看到的好處，以及您對美國傳統公司預期的運行率年收入水平的任何更新想法都會有所幫助。

This is Todd. I guess I can start and please, anybody can chime in. Maybe I think you asked about the Individual Health assumption updates. Maybe I'll address that one first is that in normal course, we always look at our underlying assumptions. And this relates to the disabled life reserve, which is based on best estimate assumptions, and we did a fairly comprehensive review of the assumptions that go into the reserve calculation. And we ended up updating the termination and utilization rates that resulted in that positive adjustment to income.

這是托德。我想我可以開始了，任何人都可以插話。也許我想你問過個人健康假設更新。也許我首先要解決的是，在正常情況下，我們總是會查看我們的基本假設。這與基於最佳估計假設的傷殘人壽準備金有關，我們對準備金計算中的假設進行了相當全面的審查。我們最終更新了終止和利用率，從而對收入進行了積極調整。

On the U.S. Traditional side, we had what we would view as positive variances from both COVID and non-COVID experience, a portion of the positive on the non-COVID related to the amount of large claims that we, I guess, didn't receive in the in the quarter. And as we've talked about in the past, the large claim is going to create some volatility period-to-period, but over time, they're fairly predictable.

在美國傳統方面，我們有我們認為與 COVID 和非 COVID 經驗的積極差異，非 COVID 的部分積極因素與我們認為沒有的大額索賠有關在本季度收到。正如我們過去談到的那樣，大額索賠將在不同時期造成一些波動，但隨著時間的推移，它們是相當可預測的。

Got it. And just maybe just a follow-up. In terms of those underwriting variances. Is there anything you can give in terms of quantifying? Like how those came in relative to what you would expect in a normal quarter?

知道了。也許只是一個後續行動。就那些承保差異而言。在量化方面，您有什麼可以提供的嗎？就像那些相對於你在正常季度中的預期是如何出現的？

Yes. We're not providing sort of an overall new run rate at this point, but we will provide some good new targets as we get into next year. But I would just comment that certainly, the higher interest rates will be a positive -- will be a tailwind to the overall U.S. Traditional business as well as the underlying business, excluding the COVID impacts, is performing quite well. So I think we hopefully should see some positive impacts as we go forward.

是的。我們目前不提供某種總體的新運行率，但我們將在進入明年時提供一些不錯的新目標。但我只想評論說，當然，更高的利率將是積極的 - 將對整個美國傳統業務以及基礎業務（不包括 COVID 影響）表現良好。所以我認為我們希望在前進的過程中看到一些積極的影響。

Todd, it's Leslie. I thought I'd chime in as well since you asked about the tailwind from interest rates. And last quarter, we had given an estimate of $70 million more income for -- over the next 12 months, given the rise in rates year-to-date, and certainly rates continue to rise. So we would up that estimate over the next 12 months by $30 million or so, so call it $100 million over the next 12 months from -- if we stay at the current level, so another $30 million. Although that's for the nonspread overall not just [U.S.].

托德，是萊斯利。我想我也會插話，因為你問到利率的順風。上個季度，我們估計未來 12 個月的收入將增加 7000 萬美元，考慮到年初至今的利率上升，而且利率肯定會繼續上升。因此，我們將在接下來的 12 個月內將該估計值提高 3000 萬美元左右，因此在接下來的 12 個月內將其稱為 1 億美元——如果我們保持在當前水平，那麼再增加 3000 萬美元。儘管那是針對非傳播整體而不僅僅是 [美國]。

And our next question will come from Ryan Krueger with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

My first question was just a follow-up on the last comment. Is the $100 million over the next 12 months, is that incremental from here? In other words, like not from kind of lap? Is it forward looking from -- over the next 12 months from today?

我的第一個問題只是對最後一條評論的跟進。未來 12 個月的 1 億美元是從這裡開始增加的嗎？換句話說，好像不是從種圈？從今天開始的未來 12 個月內，它是否具有前瞻性？

No. The incremental from where we are now -- I would look at the additional interest rate move, so that would be the additional $30 million or so. But over the next 12 months, $100 million. Yes, so -- but we had already been expecting some of that a quarter ago.

不。我們現在的增量——我會看看額外的利率變動，所以這將是額外的 3000 萬美元左右。但在接下來的 12 個月內，將增加 1 億美元。是的，所以 - 但我們已經在一個季度前期待其中的一些。

Understood. Then other question was, could you -- Asia had really strong earnings. Can you give any sense of I guess, anything in terms of kind of where you'd expect run rate earnings in that business to be or how much -- how favorable the results were in that business this quarter?

明白了。然後另一個問題是，你能不能——亞洲的收益真的很強勁。我猜你能給出任何意義嗎，關於你期望該業務的運行率收益在哪里或多少 - 本季度該業務的結果有多有利？

Ryan, it's Todd. We're not updating the run rate at this point. We're still in that $45 million to $50 million a quarter on the Traditional side. We did have a very strong quarter in Asia this quarter. I'd say about half of that variance from the run rate was underlying experience favorability. And then the other half was, again, on a periodic basis we update models and assumptions across all the different regions, and that contributed a positive impact of about half of that variance. So about half experience, half assumption, modeling updates and also client reporting updates.

瑞安，是托德。我們此時不更新運行率。在傳統方面，我們每季度仍處於 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元的水平。本季度我們在亞洲確實有一個非常強勁的季度。我想說運行率的大約一半差異是潛在的體驗好感度。然後另一半再次定期更新所有不同地區的模型和假設，這對方差的一半產生了積極影響。所以大約一半的經驗，一半的假設，建模更新以及客戶報告更新。

And our next question will come from John Barnidge with Sandler O'Neill.

我們的下一個問題將來自 John Barnidge 和 Sandler O'Neill。

You're seeing strong top line growth and opportunities for in-force block transactions. Can you maybe dimension how much of that 10% constant currency is rate versus new business?

您看到了強勁的收入增長和有效大宗交易的機會。您能否確定這 10% 的固定貨幣中有多少是利率與新業務的比值？

I would say a good part of the 10% -- some of it relates to the in-force growth, but most of it would be from the impact of both organic new business and any transactional -- anything that we've done on the transactional side that would come with premiums. We're still comfortable with the overall target that we've provided in the past of that mid- to high-single digits, but we continue to see some good momentum across the various geographies and a good appetite for protection products, and continuing to work closely with our clients on product development opportunities.

我會說這 10% 的很大一部分——其中一些與有效增長有關，但大部分將來自有機新業務和任何交易的影響——我們在交易方面會帶來溢價。我們仍然對我們過去提供的中高個位數的總體目標感到滿意，但我們繼續看到各個地區的良好勢頭和對保護產品的良好需求，並繼續與我們的客戶就產品開發機會密切合作。

And then my follow-up question. Provided LDTI commentary on impact on the balance sheet. But we started to hear others talk about the earnings benefit or headwind from it. How are you thinking about it impacting you from an earnings perspective as we think about it, [at] the very least from a conceptual standpoint.

然後是我的後續問題。提供 LDTI 對資產負債表影響的評論。但我們開始聽到其他人談論它帶來的盈利收益或逆風。從我們考慮的角度來看，你如何看待它對你的影響，至少從概念的角度來看。

Yes, from a -- I'll answer -- I will answer it from a conceptual standpoint because we're not prepared to provide any numbers at this point. But as far as when we add on new business, we won't be including provisions for adverse deviation and the reserves anymore as we do under old GAAP. So I would think that would be a positive to current earnings on new business. We did -- for the transition balance sheet need to eliminate some of what we call negative reserves, primarily on the longevity business. So that should come back through income over time. We don't expect a significant impact from changes in the DAC amortization. But I would say those other areas should be a positive. But again, it's difficult to quantify at this time.

是的，從一個——我會回答——我將從概念的角度回答它，因為我們此時不准備提供任何數字。但就我們增加新業務而言，我們將不再像在舊 GAAP 下那樣包括不利偏差準備金和準備金。因此，我認為這將對新業務的當前收益產生積極影響。我們做到了——因為過渡資產負債表需要消除一些我們稱之為負準備金的東西，主要是在長壽業務上。所以隨著時間的推移，這應該通過收入回來。我們預計 DAC 攤銷的變化不會產生重大影響。但我想說那些其他領域應該是積極的。但同樣，此時很難量化。

And our next question will come from Jimmy Bullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自 JPMorgan 的 Jimmy Bullar。

So first, I had a question for Todd on share buybacks. You are -- you've sort of resumed activity, but it's been fairly modest in the last few quarters. Wondering if that has to do with just ongoing uncertainty with COVID? Or is it more of a reflection of just the opportunity that you're seeing in terms of deal pipeline and growth in the business?

所以首先，我有一個關於股票回購的問題要問托德。你是 - 你已經恢復了活動，但在過去幾個季度中一直相當溫和。想知道這是否與 COVID 持續存在的不確定性有關？或者它更多地反映了您在交易渠道和業務增長方面看到的機會？

Yes, Jimmy. Yes, so we did have an increase in the excess capital position quarter-after-quarter, but that was primarily -- we did the hybrid transaction back in September, and we got pretty strong receptivity the day we went out for that offering. So we decided to upsize it a little bit above what we needed to refinance an existing security. So that was really why the excess increase during the quarter.

是的，吉米。是的，所以我們的過剩資本頭寸確實逐季增加，但這主要是——我們在 9 月份進行了混合交易，並且在我們進行該產品的那天我們得到了非常強烈的接受。因此，我們決定將其規模擴大到略高於我們為現有證券再融資所需的規模。所以這就是本季度超額增長的真正原因。

The net income for the quarter pretty much funded organic growth and transactional activity and the dividends and share repurchases. I think -- as far as the level of share repurchases, I think you've seen over time, we've been fairly balanced, but we're pretty optimistic, and we're seeing an attractive transactional pipeline across all of our different geographies right now. And I think as we've been pretty consistent in the past, we'd like deploying the capital back into the business where the transactions -- we can get an appropriate return and support our clients.

本季度的淨收入幾乎為有機增長和交易活動以及股息和股票回購提供了資金。我認為——就股票回購水平而言，我想你隨著時間的推移已經看到，我們一直相當平衡，但我們非常樂觀，我們看到我們所有不同領域的交易管道都具有吸引力現在的地理位置。而且我認為，由於我們過去一直非常一致，我們希望將資金重新部署到交易的業務中——我們可以獲得適當的回報並支持我們的客戶。

Todd, if I can add. We do see very strong pipelines and strong demands for what we do and what we deliver. In my prepared remarks, I shared some examples. And really, it's pointing to 2 of the strong pillars of our strategy, which are the create and partnership pillars of our strategy. Working directly with clients, creating either new products, new underwriting processes, journeys. And what that does is it moves us from having to compete to being in exclusive arrangements. And so if you think about our growth, our growth levers really come from 3 different dimensions. One is just the underlying growth in the life insurance industry. The second is growth in session rates. And the third is growth in our market share.

托德，如果我可以補充的話。我們確實看到了非常強大的管道和對我們所做的和我們提供的東西的強烈需求。在我準備好的發言中，我分享了一些例子。實際上，它指向我們戰略的兩個強大支柱，即我們戰略的創造和夥伴關係支柱。直接與客戶合作，創建新產品、新承保流程或旅程。這樣做的目的是讓我們從不得不競爭變成排他性安排。因此，如果您考慮我們的增長，我們的增長槓桿實際上來自 3 個不同的維度。一是人壽保險業的潛在增長。第二個是會話率的增長。第三是我們市場份額的增長。

Well, in instances where we're exclusive, we're really hitting on all 3 levers. We're helping clients grow their business, so grow the underlying market. And we're essentially getting 100% of the reinsurance market share on that because we're an exclusive. So strong demand. We're really well positioned right around the globe. And I expect the momentum -- we expect the momentum to continue as we go forward.

好吧，在我們獨占的情況下，我們真的會觸及所有 3 個槓桿。我們正在幫助客戶發展業務，從而發展基礎市場。我們基本上獲得了 100% 的再保險市場份額，因為我們是獨家的。如此強烈的需求。我們確實在全球範圍內處於有利地位。我期待這種勢頭——我們期待這種勢頭在我們前進的過程中繼續下去。

Okay. And then maybe for Jonathan on COVID claims. We had seen a spike in cases and deaths in Japan because of COVID and then obviously, it subsided through the end of -- close to the end of the quarter. As you think about -- and you mentioned the hospitalization and deemed hospitalization-related claims, as you think about the reporting of those, I think in some cases, there tends to be a little bit of a lag in reporting in foreign countries. Would you have caught up to all of that and assumed an IBNR was some component in your reported?

好的。然後可能是針對喬納森的 COVID 索賠。由於 COVID，我們看到日本的病例和死亡人數激增，然後很明顯，它在接近本季度末的時候消退了。當你考慮 - 你提到住院和被認為與住院相關的索賠時，當你考慮這些報告時，我認為在某些情況下，國外的報告往往會有點滯後。您會了解所有這些並假設 IBNR 是您報告中的某個組成部分嗎？

Yes. So the charge that we took related to the Japan medical claims this quarter was primarily IBNR -- almost all IBNR just given the lag in reporting that you mentioned. We're quite comfortable with our methodology and process for setting up that level of IBNR. And I believe subsequent to the quarter, we've actually received some statements that have sort of given us no reason to be concerned about the level that we set up. So overall, I think we're very confident with the estimate that we have there.

是的。因此，我們本季度與日本醫療索賠相關的費用主要是 IBNR - 幾乎所有 IBNR 只是考慮到您提到的報告滯後。我們對建立該級別 IBNR 的方法和流程感到非常滿意。而且我相信在本季度之後，我們實際上已經收到了一些聲明，這些聲明讓我們沒有理由擔心我們設置的水平。所以總的來說，我認為我們對我們在那裡的估計非常有信心。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question will come from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First question I had is just on the longer-term mortality expectations. I think you guys have talked in recent quarters about having an ongoing study of just expectations for longer-term mortality, and implications of COVID. So I just wanted to see if you could provide any kind of update on that, any shifting one way or the other of your thinking there?

我的第一個問題是關於長期死亡率預期。我想你們在最近幾個季度談到了對長期死亡率預期的持續研究以及 COVID 的影響。所以我只是想看看你是否可以提供任何更新，任何改變你的想法的方式？

Alex, it's Jonathan. So no change to our views that we've talked about in the last quarter. I think we continue to be encouraged by the favorable trends we're seeing in COVID-19 claims from what we've seen over the last couple of quarters. I think consistent with expert views, we do expect future variance in waves of infections and hospitalizations to continue but at a declining rate as we go ahead. I think there's also a wide range, obviously, around depending on what assumptions you use for the various underlying projections that you do. But I think we remain bullish on long-term mortality improvement overall.

亞歷克斯，是喬納森。因此，我們在上個季度談到的觀點沒有改變。我認為，從過去幾個季度的情況來看，我們在 COVID-19 索賠中看到的有利趨勢繼續令我們感到鼓舞。我認為與專家觀點一致，我們確實預計未來感染和住院浪潮的變化將繼續存在，但隨著我們的前進，速度會下降。顯然，我認為也有很大的範圍，這取決於您對所做的各種基礎預測使用的假設。但我認為我們仍然看好整體的長期死亡率改善。

Got it. Okay. And the other question I just wanted to ask you was on SGUL. I think I'm sure you're well aware, we've had some volatility from some of the primaries in terms of some of these universal life books. So I just wanted to, a, confirm like any exposure you have there? And b, any appetite for potentially doing reinsurance if assumptions have been level set to the right place now?

知道了。好的。我只想問你的另一個問題是關於 SGUL 的。我想我確定你很清楚，就這些通用生活書籍而言，我們的一些初選出現了一些波動。所以我只是想，a，確認你在那裡有任何曝光？ b，如果假設現在已經設置到正確的位置，是否有興趣進行潛在的再保險？

Yes. Thanks for that question. I'll start and then offer up to my colleagues if they have anything to add. So Alex, let me start with -- we've looked at this risk in the past, both from a flow-new-business basis, our traditional reinsurance and on an in-force block basis. And as we've discussed with you before, we haven't been able to get comfortable with the risk return profile. The bid-ask spread was just too wide. And so we haven't participated. That is not a risk that we have on our books right now.

是的。謝謝你的問題。如果我的同事有什麼要補充的，我會先開始，然後提供給他們。所以亞歷克斯，讓我開始 - 我們過去已經研究過這種風險，無論是從流動新業務的基礎上，我們的傳統再保險還是在有效的塊基礎上。正如我們之前與您討論過的那樣，我們無法對風險回報狀況感到滿意。買賣價差太大了。所以我們沒有參與。這不是我們現在賬面上的風險。

And I'll point out that it's really no different to what we've done on some other risks or when there are other unfavorable market dynamics, at least as we view them to be unfavorable. If the opportunity doesn't pass our risk return filter, then we'll be patient and we'll watch and we'll monitor for changes. So we can do this because: A, we're a global reinsurer. We have both flow reinsurance. And in fact, we're one of the leaders in flow reinsurance; and in-force blocks. So our -- we have many growth levers to pull, which means that we aren't overly reliant, and we are patient and disciplined.

我要指出的是，這與我們在其他一些風險或存在其他不利市場動態時所做的事情並沒有什麼不同，至少我們認為它們是不利的。如果機會沒有通過我們的風險回報過濾器，那麼我們會耐心等待，我們會觀察並監控變化。所以我們可以這樣做，因為： A，我們是一家全球再保險公司。我們都有流量再保險。事實上，我們是流量再保險領域的領導者之一；和有效塊。所以我們 - 我們有許多增長槓桿可以拉動，這意味著我們並不過分依賴，我們有耐心和紀律。

Now conditions move, they change. And as they do, we'll look at it again. We'll check to see if risk, return trade-offs are more attractive. But we'll also look at other factors like the competitive dynamics and what the likely sell-side drivers may be. And frankly, whether we're a good partner given all of those things and then act accordingly. So that's what you can expect from us on the go forward, on this risk. On the actual risk itself, we don't have the policyholder behavior risk. But I will remind you that we have the mortality associated. We provide regular YRT type of mortality protection on these products.

現在情況改變了，他們改變了。當他們這樣做時，我們會再看一遍。我們將檢查風險、回報權衡是否更具吸引力。但我們也會研究其他因素，例如競爭動態以及可能的賣方驅動因素。坦率地說，考慮到所有這些事情，我們是否是一個好的合作夥伴，然後採取相應的行動。因此，這就是您在未來的風險中對我們的期望。就實際風險本身而言，我們不存在投保人行為風險。但我會提醒你，我們有相關的死亡率。我們為這些產品提供定期 YRT 類型的死亡保護。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Anna Manning for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Anna Manning 作閉幕詞。

Thank you for your questions. And as we've noted throughout this call, this was a strong quarter, and we are very pleased with the demonstrated earnings strength that is coming through, especially in the last 2 quarters. We have a resilient and valuable platform. Our teams are highly engaged and excited, working closely with clients to bring solutions to address the protection needs highlighted by the pandemic.

謝謝你的問題。正如我們在整個電話會議中所指出的那樣，這是一個強勁的季度，我們對所顯示的盈利實力感到非常滿意，尤其是在過去兩個季度。我們有一個有彈性且有價值的平台。我們的團隊高度參與和興奮，與客戶密切合作，提供解決方案來解決大流行病突出的保護需求。

So let me end by repeating how optimistic and confident I remain in our ability to continue to create substantial long-term value for our investors. Thank you for your continued interest in RGA. And that concludes our third quarter call.

因此，讓我最後重申，我對我們繼續為投資者創造可觀的長期價值的能力保持樂觀和自信。感謝您對 RGA 的持續關注。我們的第三季度電話會議到此結束。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for attending today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。非常感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。