REV Group Inc (REVG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the REV Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, participants are in a listen-only mode.

問候。歡迎來到 REV Group 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。此時，參與者處於只聽模式。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the conference over to Drew Konop, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Drew Konop。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

All right. Thank you, Sherri, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I apologize in advance for any rough voice. It's the cold and flu season here in Barksdale, Wisconsin.

好的。謝謝雪莉，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們。對於任何粗暴的聲音，我提前道歉。現在是威斯康星州巴克斯代爾的感冒和流感季節。

Earlier today, we issued our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2022 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com. Today's call is being webcast and a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures is also available on our website.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2022 財年第四季度和全年業績。該新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 investors.revgroup.com 上獲取。今天的電話會議正在進行網絡直播，我們的網站上還提供了幻燈片演示，其中包括非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC earlier today and other filings that we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter and fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

現在請參閱該演示文稿的幻燈片 2。我們的評論和回答將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果不同的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早些時候向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格中描述的事項以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。我們不承擔任何更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些陳述可能要到我們下一次季度收益電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。除非另有說明，否則本次調用中對季度或年度的所有引用均指我們的財政季度和財政年度。

Joining me on the call today are our President and CEO, Rod Rushing; as well as our CFO, Mark Skonieczny. Please turn now to Slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to Rod.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Rod Rushing；以及我們的首席財務官 Mark Skonieczny。請現在轉到幻燈片 3，我會將電話轉給 Rod。

Thank you, Drew, and good morning to everyone joining us on today's call. This morning, I'll provide an overview of this year's commercial, operational and strategic achievements, including full year financial highlights and our consolidated fourth quarter performance. I will then turn it over to Mark for detailed segment financials.

謝謝德魯，早上好，今天參加我們電話會議的所有人。今天上午，我將概述今年的商業、運營和戰略成就，包括全年財務亮點和我們第四季度的綜合業績。然後，我會將其轉交給 Mark 以獲取詳細的部門財務信息。

Throughout fiscal year 2022, we continue to advance the strategic agenda that we put forth during our Investor Day presentation in April of 2021. During our Investor Day, we highlighted product development and simplification as a driver to unlocking shareholder value in our business. We stated that we have intermediate and long-term opportunities to simplify and commonize the design of our products and improve our designs for manufacturing while maintaining the brand identity and the differentiation that our customers value and expect.

在整個 2022 財年，我們將繼續推進我們在 2021 年 4 月的投資者日演示中提出的戰略議程。在投資者日期間，我們強調了產品開發和簡化是在我們的業務中釋放股東價值的驅動力。我們表示，我們有中期和長期的機會來簡化和通用我們的產品設計並改進我們的製造設計，同時保持品牌標識和客戶重視和期望的差異化。

In the past 12 months, the RevPAR group consolidation of 5 of our businesses as long as the new commercial chassis platform that leverages our chassis business as a center of excellence across the Fire Group's brand portfolio. As we move forward, a greater percentage of REV fire apparatus will be built on the Spartan commercial chassis than before. In 2022, we developed an integrated product road map across our Fire Group brands to enable platforming and simplification. This will lead to the standardization of subassemblies and (inaudible) having centers of excellence for subassembly production. We will do this while retaining differentiation in our brands and our customers' ability to customize. We expect a portion of the FY '23 fire bookings will benefit from these standardized designs with continued momentum into 2024.

在過去的 12 個月中，RevPAR 集團整合了我們的 5 項業務，只要新的商用底盤平台利用我們的底盤業務作為整個 Fire Group 品牌組合的卓越中心。隨著我們向前邁進，將有比以前更大比例的 REV 消防設備安裝在 Spartan 商用底盤上。 2022 年，我們為 Fire Group 品牌制定了綜合產品路線圖，以實現平台化和簡化。這將導致組件的標準化和（聽不清）擁有組件生產的卓越中心。我們將在保持品牌差異化和客戶定制能力的同時做到這一點。我們預計 23 財年的部分火災預訂將受益於這些標準化設計，並在 2024 年繼續保持勢頭。

Within the commercial segment, our EMC municipal bus business introduced its next-generation transit platform with over 90% commonality between the battery electric and the hydrogen fuel cell models. This platform will offer municipal fleet flexibility with multiple links and multiple propulsion systems. The new platform design will not only reduce complexity and production costs for our business, but it will also lower the end users' training and maintenance costs. These early wins within the Fire Group and the Commercial segment are examples of our work in progress across the enterprise and will serve as an enabler for our journey to double-digit EBITDA margins.

在商業領域，我們的 EMC 市政巴士業務推出了其下一代公交平台，該平台在電池電動和氫燃料電池模型之間具有超過 90% 的通用性。該平台將通過多鏈路和多推進系統為市政車隊提供靈活性。新的平台設計不僅會降低我們業務的複雜性和生產成本，還會降低最終用戶的培訓和維護成本。 Fire Group 和 Commercial 部門的這些早期勝利是我們在整個企業中正在進行的工作的例子，並將成為我們實現兩位數 EBITDA 利潤率之旅的推動力。

We continue investing in our people with formal on-the-job training of operational disciplines. By the close of fiscal year 2023, roughly half of our workforce will have achieved a broad screen or black certification lease certification. Together, these teams have built a pipeline of over 1,500 active cost savings projects designed to increase throughput and delivery efficiencies. Each of our businesses is now utilizing an integrated reporting and project management system that provide managers at all levels the ability to monitor progress and assist in the completion of this work.

我們繼續通過正式的運營紀律在職培訓來投資於我們的員工。到 2023 財年結束時，我們大約一半的員工將獲得寬屏或黑色認證租賃認證。這些團隊共同構建了一個由 1,500 多個活躍的成本節約項目組成的管道，旨在提高吞吐量和交付效率。我們的每個業務現在都在使用一個集成的報告和項目管理系統，使各級管理人員能夠監控進度並協助完成這項工作。

We have expanded our purchasing and engineering capabilities by engaging offshore resources to support our internal teams. Within purchasing, we are finalizing qualification for multisource solutions to the top 5 key components that created the greatest challenges to throughput in fiscal year 2022. We expect these efforts will be completed by the end of the first calendar quarter and will enable improvement in throughput within our Fire Group and our Commercial segment for the remainder of the year.

我們通過利用離岸資源來支持我們的內部團隊，擴大了我們的採購和工程能力。在採購方面，我們正在最終確定對 2022 財年吞吐量造成最大挑戰的前 5 大關鍵組件的多源解決方案的資格。我們預計這些工作將在第一季度末完成，並將提高吞吐量我們的消防部門和我們的商業部門在今年剩餘時間裡。

We have engaged our business with 2 offshore engineering firms to accelerate and advance our engineering capabilities. This work is progressing on 2 fronts. First, we are documenting our designs and improving the engineering document set that we present to our manufacturing floor. The completeness and accuracy of our bills of material has been an unaddressed issue in the past has been problematic for production during the supply chain challenges we have been working through. Secondly, we are collaborating with an offshore firm to supplement our application engineering. This will improve the quantity and quality of the engineering documents that are released to the floor and reduce the engineering cycle time, enabling the build of an engineering buffer before production execution.

我們已與 2 家離岸工程公司開展業務，以加速和提升我們的工程能力。這項工作正在 2 個方面取得進展。首先，我們正在記錄我們的設計並改進我們提交給製造車間的工程文檔集。我們的物料清單的完整性和準確性在過去一直是一個未解決的問題，在我們一直努力應對的供應鏈挑戰中，這對生產來說一直是個問題。其次，我們正在與一家離岸公司合作，以補充我們的應用工程。這將提高發佈到現場的工程文件的數量和質量，並縮短工程週期時間，從而在生產執行之前建立工程緩衝區。

Over the past year, many of our businesses delivered or introduced new zero-emission products. Our battery electric portfolio includes the first North American-style fire truck, type 2 ambulances, and type A school buses. Terminal trucks and municipal transit buses are offered in both battery electric and hydrogen fuel powertrains. These efforts have been driven by the voice of the customer and supported by partners and suppliers that offer leading-edge technology. They demonstrate our commitment to leading the developments for the markets we serve by delivering solutions that fulfill our customers' needs while reducing the carbon footprint of our fleet of vehicles.

在過去的一年裡，我們的許多企業交付或推出了新的零排放產品。我們的電池電動產品組合包括第一輛北美式消防車、2 型救護車和 A 型校車。提供電池電動和氫燃料動力總成的碼頭卡車和市政公交車。這些努力是由客戶的聲音推動的，並得到提供領先技術的合作夥伴和供應商的支持。他們通過提供滿足客戶需求的解決方案，同時減少我們車隊的碳足跡，表明我們致力於引領我們所服務市場的發展。

Fiscal year 2022 was challenged with a challenged operating environment with the continuation of external headwinds we faced exiting 2021. Chassis supply remained inconsistent with unfulfilled allocation in the first quarter, followed by a trough of just 10 receipts per week from a major OEM in the second quarter. Late in the third quarter, we began to receive unanticipated deliveries and the mix of chassis that was not aligned to our master production schedule. As we exit the fourth quarter, chassis supply has improved our visibility to future deliveries and mix of vehicles to be received remains uncertain. Most recently, a well-publicized recall was issued by a top luxury OEM that is preventing unit shipments at this time.

2022 財年的運營環境充滿挑戰，我們在 2021 年面臨持續的外部逆風。底盤供應與第一季度未完成的分配仍然不一致，第二季度主要 OEM 每週僅收到 10 份訂單四分之一。在第三季度末，我們開始收到意外交貨和與我們的主生產計劃不一致的底盤組合。隨著我們第四季度的結束，底盤供應提高了我們對未來交付的可見性，而將要接收的車輛組合仍然不確定。最近，一家頂級豪華 OEM 發出了廣為人知的召回通知，目前正在阻止單位出貨。

On the material side, we did experience durable supply chain improvement as we exited the year. However, shortages of key components have continued and in some cases, they've deteriorated as we enter the fiscal first quarter of 2023. An example of this is a leading HVAC provider to random screen Commercial segment ceased operations in the fourth quarter, and we are currently managing through this transition to a new supplier for HVAC requirements.

在材料方面，我們在結束這一年時確實經歷了持久的供應鏈改善。然而，關鍵部件的短缺仍在繼續，在某些情況下，隨著我們進入 2023 財年第一季度，短缺情況進一步惡化。這方面的一個例子是，一家領先的 HVAC 供應商隨機篩選商業部門在第四季度停止運營，我們目前正在通過向 HVAC 要求的新供應商的過渡進行管理。

Finally, like many manufacturing companies, we've experienced the impact of a constrained labor market. We built specialized and highly customized vehicles in a scale that limits the opportunity for automation. Availability of the workers at the time restricted our ability to achieve our target line rates. We have improved onboarding, employee tooling and employee training to reduce employee attrition and position our associates for opportunity for advancement. The momentum of our lean training products mentioned earlier is also expected to help our business improve efficiency and reduce the labor required per unit of completed vehicles.

最後，與許多製造公司一樣，我們經歷了勞動力市場受限的影響。我們以限制自動化機會的規模製造了專業化和高度定制化的車輛。當時工人的可用性限制了我們實現目標線率的能力。我們改進了入職、員工工具和員工培訓，以減少員工流失並為我們的員工提供晉昇機會。我們前面提到的精益培訓產品的勢頭也有望幫助我們的業務提高效率並減少每單位整車所需的勞動力。

Despite the challenges noted, we exit fiscal 2022 with a record backlog of $4.2 billion. Our bookings remained strong throughout the fourth quarter, and that included additional price increases being implemented during the quarter. We had another successful year of converting earnings to cash with full year free cash flow conversion of 136%. We returned a total of $82 million of cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases and exited the year with a strong financial position. Total liquidity under our ABL credit facility was $208 million, which provides significant flexibility and opportunity to continue to pursue our strategic agenda.

儘管面臨挑戰，我們在 2022 財年結束時仍積壓了 42 億美元的創紀錄訂單。我們的預訂在整個第四季度都保持強勁，其中包括本季度實施的額外價格上漲。我們又成功地將收益轉化為現金，全年自由現金流轉化率為 136%。我們以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了總計 8200 萬美元的現金，並以強勁的財務狀況結束了這一年。我們 ABL 信貸安排下的總流動資金為 2.08 億美元，這為繼續追求我們的戰略議程提供了巨大的靈活性和機會。

Turning to Slide 4. I'd like to present a few highlights from the quarter. Previously, I shared that our E&C municipal bus business announced the development of the next-generation zero-emission products, the access battery electric bus and the access hydrogen fuel cell electric bus. E&C announced its first order of products from the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. DFW ordered 4-axis EDO battery electric buses along with 22 Axis CNG-powered buses. The new fleet of buses is expected to be delivered to the airport in the summer of 2023. We believe the vision free buses will attract significant municipal interest as state and local governments pursue low and low-emission transit buses under FDA Green. As we noted on our third quarter earnings call, the FDA announced a $1.7 million of grants for low- and no-emission buses. These are the first awards related to the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which provides a total of $5.5 billion over 5 years to help state and local government authorities buy, release, zero-emission or low-emission transit buses.

轉到幻燈片 4。我想介紹本季度的一些亮點。此前，我分享了我們的E&C市政客車業務宣布開發下一代零排放產品，接入電池電動公交車和接入氫燃料電池電動公交車。 E&C 宣布了來自達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場的第一批產品訂單。 DFW 訂購了 4 軸 EDO 電池電動公交車以及 22 輛 Axis CNG 動力公交車。新車隊預計將於 2023 年夏季交付機場。我們相信，隨著州和地方政府在 FDA Green 下尋求低排放公交車，無視覺公交車將吸引市政當局的極大興趣。正如我們在第三季度財報電話會議上指出的那樣，FDA 宣佈為低排放和無排放公交車撥款 170 萬美元。這些是與兩黨基礎設施法案相關的首批獎勵，該法案在 5 年內提供總額為 55 億美元的資金，以幫助州和地方政府當局購買、發布、零排放或低排放公交車。

In September, we were pleased to see the return of the RV dealer open house in Elkhart with strong dealer demand and enthusiasm. REV Recreation Group brands combined to showcase more than 60 models, including new and updated designs. New products on display at the open house included the brand-new Fleetwood Frontier, GTX, Class A diesel luxury motorhome that features an industry-first dedicated office. Landscaper debuted its Enduro overland concept unit, which is designed for off-grid camping and the active outdoors person. The Fleetwood GTX 37 RT received several awards, including RV of the Year and Best New Model, while the Enduro won RV of the Year and the Must-see RV.

9 月，我們很高興地看到埃爾克哈特的房車經銷商開放日回歸，經銷商需求旺盛，熱情高漲。 REV Recreation Group 品牌聯合展示了 60 多種模型，包括新的和更新的設計。在開放日展出的新產品包括全新的 Fleetwood Frontier、GTX、A 級柴油豪華房車，配備行業首創的專用辦公室。 Landscaper 推出了其 Enduro 陸上概念單元，專為離網露營和戶外活動人士設計。 Fleetwood GTX 37 RT 獲得了多個獎項，包括年度房車和最佳新車型，而 Enduro 贏得了年度房車和必看房車。

Within the fourth quarter, we announced the appointment of Dan Desrochers as the President of the REV Fire Group. Prior to joining REV Group, Dan served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Morgan Truck Body, a division of J.B. Poindexter, where he led a team of 2,500 employees and oversaw 14 plants. Over his 30-year career, Dan has held leadership with Morgan Olson, General Electric, United States Can Company and Federal Signal and comes to us with a strong history of operation performance. I'm very pleased that Dan has joined our team, and I look forward to the impact he will have on improving and advancing our Fire business.

在第四季度，我們宣布任命 Dan Desrochers 為 REV Fire Group 總裁。在加入 REV Group 之前，Dan 曾擔任 J.B. Poindexter 旗下部門 Morgan Truck Body 的總裁兼首席運營官，在那裡他領導著一支由 2,500 名員工組成的團隊並監管 14 家工廠。在其 30 年的職業生涯中，Dan 曾在 Morgan Olson、通用電氣、美國罐頭公司和 Federal Signal 擔任領導職務，並以卓越的運營業績來到我們這裡。我很高興 Dan 加入了我們的團隊，我期待著他對改進和推進我們的 Fire 業務產生的影響。

Turning to Slide 5. Fourth quarter consolidated net sales increased 5.7% versus prior year. The increase was primarily the result of higher sales in Commercial and Recreation segments, partially offset by lower F&E sales related to chassis and supply chain constraints. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $2.4 million. The increase was primarily a result of increased sales and profitability in the Recreation segment, partially offset by lower contributions from F&E and the commercial segments.

轉到幻燈片 5。第四季度綜合淨銷售額比去年同期增長 5.7%。這一增長主要是由於商業和娛樂部門的銷售額增加，部分被與底盤和供應鏈限制相關的 F&E 銷售額減少所抵消。調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 240 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於娛樂部門的銷售額和盈利能力增加，部分被 F&E 和商業部門的貢獻減少所抵消。

The fourth quarter marks a point where our year-over-year comparables reflect supply chain constraints. As was the case throughout fiscal 2022, the operating landscape continues to change. As I previously mentioned, it's exiting the fourth quarter, we received a recall notice from an OEM partner that is expected to delay shipments and ship revenue in fiscal year 2023. While we continue to face and address supply chain challenges, we are confident that the initiatives that we have put in place will improve our throughput and our financial performance.

第四季度標誌著我們的同比可比數據反映了供應鏈的限制。與整個 2022 財年的情況一樣，運營格局繼續發生變化。正如我之前提到的，第四季度即將結束，我們收到了 OEM 合作夥伴的召回通知，預計將延遲 2023 財年的出貨量和出貨收入。雖然我們繼續面臨和應對供應鏈挑戰，但我們相信我們實施的舉措將提高我們的吞吐量和財務業績。

Now I will turn it over to Mark for details on our fourth quarter financial performance. Mark?

現在我將把它轉交給馬克，了解我們第四季度財務業績的詳細信息。標記？

Thanks, Rod, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Page 6 of the slide deck as I move to a review of our fourth quarter segment results and full year consolidated performance.

謝謝，羅德，大家早上好。請翻到幻燈片的第 6 頁，我將回顧我們的第四季度分部業績和全年綜合業績。

Fire & Emergency fourth quarter segment sales were $253 million, a decrease of 9% compared to the prior year. The decrease in net sales was primarily due to fewer shipments of fire apparatus and ambulance is partially offset by price realization of trucks shipped within the quarter. Within the Fire Group, completions and shipments continue to be impacted by shortages of critical parts such as radiators, wire harnesses and axles as well as lower-than-expected line rates at our holding facility, which continues to integrate the production of KME and Ferrara branded units. The result was a 9% decrease in unit shipments versus the fourth quarter of last year.

消防與應急部門第四季度銷售額為 2.53 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 9%。淨銷售額的下降主要是由於消防設備和救護車的發貨量減少，部分被本季度發貨的卡車的價格實現所抵消。在 Fire 集團內，散熱器、線束和車軸等關鍵部件的短缺以及我們繼續整合 KME 和 Ferrara 生產的控股工廠的線率低於預期，繼續影響完工和出貨量品牌單位。結果是單位出貨量與去年第四季度相比下降了 9%。

Sequentially, unit sales improved versus the third quarter, reaching the highest level of fiscal 2022 with increased shipments from several fire plants. Although below expectations, we did see sequential improvement in shipments from our holding facility. The Holden team remains focused on balancing feeder lines to increase production levels with recent success filling its cab chassis and body lines to be aligned for final assembly. Within the Ambulance group, we continue to experience unpredictable OEM chassis deliveries, creating production planning challenges that resulted in a 9% decrease in shipments versus the prior year. As Rod noted earlier, although we have been receiving a greater number of chassis from our OEM partners, the timing and mix of units remain varied. The ability to plan production as well as a line component part supply begins with the expected receipt date of a specific chassis. If the chassis delivery date is delayed or different models received, it is a downward impact downstream impact on the value chain. In addition to the disruption this caused to our component inventory, we have continued to experience material shortages related to supply chain constraints. Despite these challenges, unit completions improved late in the quarter with shipments increasing compared to the third quarter.

隨後，單位銷售額與第三季度相比有所改善，達到 2022 財年的最高水平，幾家消防廠的出貨量有所增加。儘管低於預期，但我們確實看到我們控股設施的出貨量連續改善。 Holden 團隊仍然專注於平衡饋線以提高生產水平，最近成功填充其駕駛室底盤和車身線以對齊最終組裝。在救護車部門，我們繼續經歷不可預測的 OEM 底盤交付，造成生產計劃挑戰，導致出貨量比上一年減少 9%。正如 Rod 之前指出的那樣，儘管我們從 OEM 合作夥伴那裡收到了更多的底盤，但時間安排和單位組合仍然各不相同。計劃生產以及生產線組件供應的能力始於特定底盤的預期接收日期。如果底盤交貨日期延遲或收到不同型號，則對價值鏈下游產生向下影響。除了這對我們的組件庫存造成的干擾外，我們還繼續遇到與供應鏈限制相關的材料短缺問題。儘管存在這些挑戰，但與第三季度相比，出貨量在本季度末有所增加。

Turning to EBITDA. F&E segment adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 million in the fourth quarter 2022 compared to $10.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.8% decreased 280 basis points compared to last year. The decrease was primarily result of supply chain disruptions, labor inefficiencies, increased inflationary pressure and costs related to Hurricane Ian, partially offset by price realization. As I mentioned earlier, production at the Holden facility has not supported the shipments of units at the rating we anticipated entering the fiscal year. In addition, slower completion of the units that were booked prior to the recent inflationary environment resulted in a price cost headwind in the fourth quarter, which is the first occurrence this year. Full year segment and consolidated price/cost remained positive, but production of aged backlog remain a headwind entering fiscal 2023. Total F&E backlog was $2.6 billion, an increase of 73% year-over-year. The increase in backlog was a result of strong unit orders and posing actions taken over the past year. Fire apparatus orders were a quarterly record and increased 23% versus last year's quarter, while orders for ambulance increased 14%.

轉向 EBITDA。 2022 年第四季度，F&E 部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 190 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 1010 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 0.8%，與去年相比下降了 280 個基點。下降的主要原因是供應鏈中斷、勞動力效率低下、通脹壓力增加以及與颶風伊恩相關的成本，部分被價格實現所抵消。正如我之前提到的，霍頓工廠的生產並沒有支持我們預計進入本財年的單位出貨量。此外，在最近的通貨膨脹環境之前預訂的單位完成速度較慢，導致第四季度出現價格成本逆風，這是今年首次出現。全年細分市場和綜合價格/成本保持正值，但進入 2023 財年，陳舊積壓產品的生產仍然是一個不利因素。F&E 積壓訂單總額為 26 億美元，同比增長 73%。積壓訂單的增加是由於強勁的單位訂單和過去一年採取的行動。消防設備訂單創下季度記錄，比去年同期增長 23%，而救護車訂單增長 14%。

Looking into fiscal 2023, we expect typical first quarter seasonality within the F&E segment with an approximate 10% revenue decline. As our multi-sourcing initiatives take hold in the fiscal second quarter, we expect sequential revenue growth throughout the year. Segment margins are expected to remain in the low single digits as we continue to complete H units within backlog. The midpoint of guidance anticipates that manufacturing efficiencies and more favorable pricing will begin to improve segment margins in the second half of the fiscal year.

展望 2023 財年，我們預計 F&E 部門將出現典型的第一季度季節性，收入下降約 10%。由於我們的多采購計劃在第二財季開始實施，我們預計全年收入將連續增長。隨著我們繼續完成積壓的 H 單位，預計部門利潤率將保持在較低的個位數。指導意見的中點預計製造效率和更優惠的定價將在本財年下半年開始提高部門利潤率。

Turning to Slide 7. Commercial segment sales of $111 million was an increase of 17% compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily related to higher sales of school buses, terminal trucks and street sweepers, partially offset by lower sales of municipal buses. Commercial segment sales in the prior year were impacted by a 5-week suspension of school bus production due to women in chest availability. Although school bus shipments were higher than previous year, was limited by shortages of wire harnesses and HVAC equipment, resulting in a 29% sequential decline in unit sales. (inaudible) supply will remain a headwind to throughput in fiscal first quarter, while multi-sourcing initiatives are expected to improve supply in the second quarter.

轉到幻燈片 7。商業部門銷售額為 1.11 億美元，比上年增長 17%。這一增長主要與校車、碼頭卡車和清掃車的銷量增加有關，部分被市政公交車銷量的下降所抵消。上一年的商業部門銷售額受到校車停產 5 週的影響，原因是女性有空缺。儘管校車出貨量高於去年，但受到線束和 HVAC 設備短缺的限制，導致單位銷量環比下降 29%。 （聽不清）供應仍將對第一財季的吞吐量產生不利影響，而多采購計劃預計將改善第二季度的供應。

Within the Specialty Group, terminal truck shipments increased for the 12th consecutive quarter and street sweeper sales increased for the fifth consecutive quarter, each setting a unit sales record. Municipal transit bus shipments were limited by continued supply chain constraints of key components, primarily wire harnesses.

在專業集團中，碼頭卡車出貨量連續第 12 個季度增長，街道清掃車銷量連續第五個季度增長，均創下單位銷售記錄。市政公交車的出貨量受到關鍵部件（主要是線束）持續供應鏈限制的限制。

Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 million decreased 42% versus the prior year. The decrease in EBITDA was primarily the result of an unfavorable mix of municipal buses and rework inefficiencies related to supply chain constraints that impact the school bus and municipal transit bus completions partially offset by increased contribution from the specialty businesses. An unfavorable mix of municipal transit buses is primarily the result of low-margin units sold during the highly competitive bidding cycle related to COVID. In the Specialty group, efficiencies related to improved production velocity resulted in a 3-year high margin performance despite challenges related to supply of key components.

商業部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 330 萬美元，比上年下降 42%。 EBITDA 的減少主要是由於市政公交車的不利組合以及與影響校車和市政公交車完工的供應鏈限制相關的返工效率低下，部分被專業業務貢獻的增加所抵消。市政公交車的不利組合主要是由於在與 COVID 相關的競爭激烈的投標週期中銷售的低利潤單位。在特種產品組中，與提高生產速度相關的效率帶來了 3 年的高利潤率表現，儘管在關鍵部件的供應方面存在挑戰。

Commercial segment backlog was $526 million at the end of the fourth quarter, which reflects pricing actions taken throughout fiscal '22 and increased orders in municipal transit buses. Due to the chassis constraints that have impact the school bus industry, we have seen an increase in the number of school bus plus chassis orders rather than body-only conversion orders. This change in order patterns, not only part of procurer chassis directly from OEMs, but also impact the margin profile of the business and chassis costs are essentially treated as a pass-through and therefore, is margin dilutive to the segment.

第四季度末商業部門積壓訂單為 5.26 億美元，這反映了整個 22 財年採取的定價行動以及市政公交車訂單的增加。由於影響校車行業的底盤限制，我們看到校車加底盤訂單的數量有所增加，而不是僅車身改裝訂單。訂單模式的這種變化，不僅部分採購底盤直接來自 OEM，還會影響企業的利潤率，底盤成本基本上被視為轉嫁成本，因此會稀釋該部門的利潤率。

We expect segment margins to trough in the first quarter in fiscal 2023 as we continue to ship low-margin municipal transit buses. We expect segment profitability to improve sequentially throughout the year as we build through the municipal transit backlog, multi-sourcing of wire harnesses as well as the resourcing the HVC equipment supplier mentioned earlier is expected to alleviate the supply chain headwinds within the second quarter, benefiting line rates in all businesses in the commercial segment.

我們預計分部利潤率將在 2023 財年第一季度觸底，因為我們將繼續運送低利潤率的市政公交車。我們預計分部盈利能力將在全年依次改善，因為我們通過市政交通積壓、線束的多源採購以及前面提到的 HVC 設備供應商的資源供應預計將在第二季度緩解供應鏈逆風，從而受益商業部門所有業務的線路費率。

Turning to Slide 8. Recreation segment sales of $260 million were up 19% versus last year's quarter. Increased sales versus the prior year were primarily a result of increased shipments of Class B class units and pricing actions. Partially offsetting the increase was lower sales of towable units raised supply chain and labor constraints. Our plans to maintain a regular production schedule within the quarter and dealer inventories in our brands remain approximately 50% below pre-covid levels exiting the year.

轉到幻燈片 8。娛樂部門的銷售額為 2.6 億美元，比去年同期增長 19%。與上一年相比銷售額的增加主要是由於 B 類設備的出貨量增加和定價行為。部分抵消了增長的原因是可牽引裝置的銷售額下降增加了供應鍊和勞動力限制。我們計劃在本季度保持正常的生產計劃，我們品牌的經銷商庫存仍比今年結束前的水平低約 50%。

Recreation segment adjusted EBITDA of $35.3 million was an increase of $13.6 million versus the prior year. The increase in EBITDA was primarily a result of price realization, volume leverage and favorable mix, partially offset by material inflation in labor inefficiencies in the total business.

娛樂部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 3530 萬美元，比上年增加 1360 萬美元。 EBITDA 的增長主要是由於價格實現、銷量槓桿和有利的組合，部分被整體業務中勞動力效率低下的實質性通脹所抵消。

Segment backlog of $1.1 billion decreased 9% versus the prior year. The decrease is primarily due to continued production against backlog and lower orders across product categories. Type B and Type C orders have normalized to pre-covid levels and backlog for these businesses remain at approximately 1 year production. Class A and towable backlog extend beyond fiscal 2023 at the current production volumes.

11 億美元的部門積壓訂單與上一年相比下降了 9%。減少的主要原因是針對積壓的訂單繼續生產以及跨產品類別的訂單減少。 B 類和 C 類訂單已正常化至疫情前的水平，這些企業的積壓訂單保持在大約 1 年的生產水平。按照當前的產量，A 級和可拖車積壓訂單會持續到 2023 財年之後。

We did receive a small number of cancellations in these categories, but expect to regain a portion of those orders convert to the following model-year orders. We do expect Recreation segment backlog to decline throughout the year as we maintain production and to exit a more normalized level. As Rod mentioned earlier, the timing of revenue and EBITDA in fiscal '23 will be impacted by gold recall from a luxury van OEM that prevents us from selling units. We do not expect these sales to be lost, but the timing of approximately $40 million to $50 million of revenue is expected to shift from the second fiscal quarter as the OEM recall fix is received and units are delivered.

我們確實收到了這些類別中的少量取消訂單，但預計會重新獲得這些訂單的一部分並轉換為以下車型年訂單。我們確實預計，隨著我們維持生產並退出更正常的水平，全年娛樂部門積壓訂單將減少。正如 Rod 之前提到的那樣，23 財年的收入和 EBITDA 的時間將受到豪華貨車原始設備製造商召回黃金的影響，這會阻止我們出售產品。我們預計這些銷售額不會損失，但隨著收到 OEM 召回修復並交付設備，預計大約 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元的收入時間將從第二財季開始轉移。

Turning to Slide 9. Full year consolidated net sales decreased 2.1% versus fiscal 2021. The decrease was primarily a result of decreased sales within the F&E segment, partially offset by increased sales within the Commercial and Recreation segments. The decrease in F&E segment sales was primarily due to lower unit shipments related to supply chain constraints and chassis shortages and inefficiencies related to the transition that can lead production to our holding facility, partially offset by pricing actions.

轉到幻燈片 9。與 2021 財年相比，全年綜合淨銷售額下降 2.1%。下降的主要原因是 F&E 部門的銷售額下降，部分被商業和娛樂部門的銷售額增加所抵消。 F&E 部門銷售額的下降主要是由於與供應鏈限制和底盤短缺相關的單位出貨量減少以及與可能導致生產到我們的控股設施的過渡相關的低效率，部分被定價行動所抵消。

As a result, full year F&E net sales decreased 15% on $0.13 lower unit sales versus the prior year. Within the year, we successfully repriced the portion of F&E backlog that was booked prior to today's inflationary environment. However, lower throughput within the segment limited our ability to realize pricing actions that were taken in fiscal '21 and '22. We expect greater contribution from these pricing actions in the back half as we exit fiscal year 2023.

因此，全年 F&E 淨銷售額下降 15%，單位銷售額比上年下降 0.13 美元。在這一年內，我們成功地重新定價了在今天的通貨膨脹環境之前預訂的部分 F&E 積壓訂單。然而，該部門內較低的吞吐量限制了我們實現在 21 財年和 22 財年採取的定價行動的能力。隨著我們退出 2023 財年，我們預計這些定價行動將在下半年做出更大貢獻。

The increase in Commercial segment sales was primarily a result of increased record school buses, terminal trucks and street sweepers and pricing actions. The increase in Recreation segment sales is s result of favorable mix and pricing actions that resulted in record recreation segment sales.

商業部門銷售額的增長主要是由於創紀錄的校車、碼頭卡車和街道清掃車以及定價行動的增加。娛樂部門銷售額的增長是有利的組合和定價行動導致娛樂部門銷售額創紀錄的結果。

Full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA decreased $36 million or 26% year-over-year. The decrease in EBITDA was primarily a result of decreased contribution from F&E and Commercial segments, partially offset by higher contribution from the Recreation segment. The decrease in F&E segment EBITDA was primarily due to lower unit volume and inefficiencies related to fly chain constraints and the transition that came with production to our Holden facility.

全年合併調整後 EBITDA 同比減少 3600 萬美元或 26%。 EBITDA 的減少主要是由於 F&E 和商業部門的貢獻減少，部分被娛樂部門的貢獻增加所抵消。 F&E 部門 EBITDA 的減少主要是由於單位數量減少和與飛鏈限制相關的低效率以及生產向我們的 Holden 工廠的過渡。

The decrease in the Commercial segment EBITDA was primarily due to the completion of a large municipal transit bus order earlier this year, which resulted in an unfavorable mix of units. In addition to increased costs related to inefficiency associated with supply chain constraints and rework needed to complete units.

商業部門 EBITDA 的下降主要是由於今年早些時候完成了一項大型市政公交巴士訂單，這導致了不利的單位組合。除了與供應鏈限制和完成單元所需的返工相關的低效率相關的成本增加之外。

Full year Recreation segment margin, 11.6%, was a record and benefited from pricing actions, a higher mix of diesel units in certain categories and opportunities to batch-fed units to fulfil elevated demand. We do not expect to repeat this margin performance in 2023 with contributions from towable and gas units increase and the opportunity for batch building decreases.

全年娛樂部門利潤率為 11.6%，創歷史新高，這得益於定價行動、某些類別的柴油機組的更高組合以及分批供給機組滿足高需求的機會。我們預計 2023 年不會重複這種利潤率表現，因為可牽引和燃氣裝置的貢獻增加，批量建造的機會減少。

Turning to Slide 10. Trade working capital on October 31 was $348 million, a decrease of $20 million compared to $368 million at the end of fiscal 2021. The decrease was primarily a result of increased accounts payable and customer advances, partially offset by an increase in inventory. The increased inventory balance includes an increase of $37 million of third-party chassis and an elevated level of work in process is on finishing units for key components in order to be completed.

轉到幻燈片 10。10 月 31 日的貿易營運資金為 3.48 億美元，與 2021 財年末的 3.68 億美元相比減少了 2000 萬美元。減少的主要原因是應付賬款和客戶預付款增加，部分被增加抵消在庫存中。增加的庫存餘額包括增加 3700 萬美元的第三方底盤，以及為了完成關鍵部件的精加工單元而提高的在製品水平。

Full year cash from operating activities was $91.6 million. We spent $8.9 million on capital expenditures within the fourth quarter and a total of $24.8 million for the full year, resulting in full year free cash flow of $66.8 million, which represents a cash conversion rate of 136%. As Rod mentioned earlier, we returned a total of $82.4 million of cash to shareholders.

全年來自經營活動的現金為 9160 萬美元。我們在第四季度花費了 890 萬美元用於資本支出，全年總計 2480 萬美元，導致全年自由現金流為 6680 萬美元，現金轉換率為 136%。正如羅德之前提到的，我們向股東返還了總計 8240 萬美元的現金。

Net debt as of October 31 was $209.6 million, including $20.4 million of cash on hand. We declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share payable January 13 to shareholders on record on December 30. At quarter end, the company maintained ample liquidity with approximately $308 million available under the ABL revolving credit facility, and our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio was 2x at the low end of our stated target range of 2 to 2.5x.

截至 10 月 31 日的淨債務為 2.096 億美元，其中包括 2040 萬美元的手頭現金。我們宣佈於 1 月 13 日向股東支付每股 0.05 美元的季度現金股息，並於 12 月 30 日記錄在案。在季度末，公司保持充足的流動性，ABL 循環信貸額度下的可用資金約為 3.08 億美元，我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比槓桿率為 2 倍，處於我們規定的 2 至 2.5 倍目標範圍的低端。

Turning to Slide 11. Today, we are providing full year guidance, which reflects a range of continued uncertainty surrounding chassis visibility and key performance supply and our expectation for increased inflationary pressure that has impacted a portion of units in the backlog (inaudible) the first half of fiscal 2023. Today's top line guidance is $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion or 3% growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $110 million to $130 million, an increase of 14% at the midpoint.

轉到幻燈片 11。今天，我們提供全年指導，這反映了圍繞底盤可見性和關鍵性能供應的一系列持續不確定性，以及我們對通脹壓力增加的預期影響了積壓訂單中的部分單位（聽不清） 2023 財年的一半。今天的頂線指導是 23 億美元至 25 億美元或中點增長 3%。調整後的 EBITDA 指引為 1.1 億美元至 1.3 億美元，中點增長 14%。

Given the seasonally soft first quarter, lingering key component shortages and the stop ship recall of luxury van chassis, we expect the first quarter to be the trough of revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin with sequential improvement throughout the year. We expect first half consolidated revenue to be approximately 45% for the full year guidance and first half consolidated adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 35% of full year guidance.

鑑於第一季度的季節性疲軟、關鍵零部件短缺問題持續存在以及豪華廂式貨車底盤的停船召回，我們預計第一季度將是收入和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的低谷，全年環比改善。我們預計上半年綜合收入約為全年指導的 45%，上半年綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為全年指導的 35%。

Cash conversion is expected to be 90% or greater with free cash flow in the range of $39 million to $55 million. Adjusted net income is expected to be $42 million to $60 million and net income of $28 million to $47 million. Full year capital expenditures is estimated to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million, which includes carryover projects that were initiated in fiscal 2022. Maintenance CapEx remains in the range of $15 million to $20 million per year, and our growth projects have internal payback and IRR targets that must be met before being approved. Expected interest expense in the range of $25 million to $27 million is an increase compared to the recent run rate. This is a result of the current and anticipated interest rate hikes as well as an increase in customer advances.

現金轉換率預計為 90% 或更高，自由現金流在 3900 萬至 5500 萬美元之間。調整後的淨收入預計為 4200 萬至 6000 萬美元，淨收入為 2800 萬至 4700 萬美元。全年資本支出估計在 3000 萬到 3500 萬美元之間，其中包括 2022 財年啟動的結轉項目。維護資本支出保持在每年 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元之間，我們的增長項目有內部獲批前必須達到的回報率和 IRR 目標。與最近的運行率相比，預期的利息支出在 2500 萬至 2700 萬美元之間有所增加。這是當前和預期的加息以及客戶預付款增加的結果。

So with that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

因此，我將把它交給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們的第一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

Maybe I'll start with that with your last bunch of comments there, Mark. I just wanted to get some commentary on the free cash flow outlook for the year. I see EBITDA up, the tax is a point or 2 higher, interest costs a few million higher than the prior year. Perhaps answering my own question here, but can you maybe just give us some of the other parts of free cash flow that might be changing next year, especially inventory? And any other moving parts that kind of leads you to believe there will be a slightly down year for free cash flow?

馬克，也許我將從你的最後一堆評論開始。我只是想對今年的自由現金流前景發表一些評論。我看到 EBITDA 上升，稅收高出 1 或 2 個百分點，利息成本比上一年高出幾百萬。也許在這裡回答我自己的問題，但你能不能給我們一些明年可能會發生變化的自由現金流的其他部分，尤其是庫存？以及任何其他讓您相信自由現金流量將略有下降的一年？

A couple components, Mike, is obviously, we're still managing through our inventory. We have the opportunity to reduce inventory. But as our backlog continues to flow in the F&E business, as we've discussed before, we'll see an outward flow related to our customer advances. So when you look at our overall cash flow, it's really a result of our customer advances decreasing as you see, we've had an increase this year in advance. So as those normalize exiting 2023 or drop, it will be larger than our actual reduction that we're able to get in inventory. So that's really the main driver of that, including the items you talked about, the interest expense, that is an increase, obviously, $10 million year-over-year as well.

幾個組件，邁克，顯然，我們仍在通過我們的庫存進行管理。我們有機會減少庫存。但正如我們之前所討論的那樣，隨著我們的積壓繼續在 F&E 業務中流動，我們將看到與客戶預付款相關的外流。因此，當您查看我們的整體現金流量時，這實際上是我們客戶預付款減少的結果，如您所見，我們今年提前有所增加。因此，隨著那些正常化退出 2023 年或下降，它將大於我們能夠獲得庫存的實際減少量。所以這真的是其中的主要驅動力，包括你談到的項目，利息支出，這顯然也比去年同期增加了 1000 萬美元。

Okay. Great. And I also want to follow up on the same slide, just some of the color on your cadence about how earnings are going to play out from quarter-to-quarter in fiscal '23 as well. Looking at the first and second quarter might be a little bit rough, it sounds like you've still got some leading issues. But do you expect the third and fourth quarters to somewhat represent a more normalized problem-free environment at this point? And is that la good annualized rate to kind of think about going beyond those 2 quarters?

好的。偉大的。而且我還想在同一張幻燈片上跟進，只是關於你在 23 財年的季度收益將如何從一個季度到另一個季度發揮作用的節奏的一些顏色。看看第一季度和第二季度可能有點粗糙，聽起來你仍然有一些領先的問題。但你是否預計第三和第四季度在某種程度上代表了一個更加正常化的無問題環境？考慮超越這兩個季度的年化率是否不錯？

I would say, well, like we've talked about, it's hard, we're getting first half, second half, but what our guidance would imply that we see an improvement, especially what we've been talking about recently in the last couple of earnings calls on the multi-sourcing that Rod even highlighted today that some of these problematic key components, we have internal plans in place to multisource. So exiting the second quarter, entering the third, we'll see improved throughput as well as anticipate chassis supply picking up. We do have good visibility on the commercial side as we talked about into Q2 with those chassis, so from a progression perspective, we'd probably be more normalized in a fourth quarter rate versus not fully realized in Q3 is sort of the way I would project it with our typical ramp Q1 through Q4 with Q1 really being down by what we highlighted in Recreation. As you know, that the high-end RVs that we have used that luxury van. So those are margin accretive to that segment. So those pushing from Q1 to Q2 will have a little shift there. But Q3 and Q4 will normalize as we exit the year.

我會說，好吧，就像我們談到的那樣，這很難，我們正在上半場，下半場，但我們的指導意味著我們看到了進步，尤其是我們最近在上次談論的內容Rod 今天甚至強調了一些關於多源的收益電話，其中一些有問題的關鍵組件，我們有內部計劃來多源。因此，從第二季度開始，進入第三季度，我們將看到吞吐量有所提高，並預計底盤供應量會增加。當我們談到第二季度的這些底盤時，我們在商業方面確實有很好的知名度，所以從進展的角度來看，我們可能會在第四季度的利率上更加正常化，而不是在第三季度沒有完全實現，這是我的方式用我們典型的 Q1 到 Q4 斜坡來預測它，而 Q1 確實下降了我們在娛樂中強調的內容。如您所知，我們使用過那種豪華麵包車的高端房車。因此，這些是該細分市場的利潤增長。因此，那些從 Q1 推到 Q2 的人會在那裡有一點轉變。但隨著我們結束這一年，第三季度和第四季度將正常化。

Okay. Great. And then turning to Recreation. You had noted that dealer inventories are 50% below pre-pandemic levels. Could you comment on the desire of dealerships to replenish their inventories at this point with interest rates a bit higher? And just in general, consumers open to buying a 6-figure car site unseen with an online order. How necessary are inventories at this point and their desire to come all the way back to what we saw back in 2019?

好的。偉大的。然後轉向娛樂。您已經註意到經銷商庫存比大流行前水平低 50%。您能否評論經銷商此時以更高的利率補充庫存的願望？總的來說，消費者樂於購買在線訂單看不到的 6 位數汽車網站。在這一點上庫存有多大必要，以及他們希望一路回到我們在 2019 年看到的情況？

Yes. Like Rod mentioned, our products that we're offering to the market, we continue to see our products not staying on the floor that long. We did see a drop in retail sell-throughs here. But at the same time, we continue to see good throughput on a dealer lot and as we've talked about before, in the Recreation space, the dealers will carry what sells and what moves the quickest, right? So they'll have to incur their flooring cost. So we continue to see our products move through the channel versus the orders dropping off and the reduced likelihood of them carrying the units on the lots.

是的。就像 Rod 提到的，我們向市場提供的產品，我們繼續看到我們的產品不會在地板上停留那麼久。我們確實看到這裡的零售銷售量有所下降。但與此同時，我們繼續看到經銷商大量的良好吞吐量，正如我們之前談到的那樣，在娛樂領域，經銷商將攜帶銷售最快的東西，對吧？所以他們將不得不承擔地板成本。因此，我們繼續看到我們的產品通過渠道移動，而不是訂單下降以及他們攜帶單位的可能性降低。

Yes. I just would add to that. We've been very cautious and conscious, and we talked about will be for this peak in the RV of managing our throughput. So we didn't over replenish inventory. So we can get sell-through and get a good pull and demand. So a lot of our units are still retail sold as they come through. That percentage has dropped a bit, but we're still very conscious and working with our dealers around making sure wheels are turning and they're not stale on the lots. So we get a better dealer pull from that.

是的。我只想補充一點。我們一直非常謹慎和有意識，我們談到了管理我們的吞吐量的 RV 中的這個峰值。所以我們沒有過度補充庫存。因此，我們可以獲得銷售並獲得良好的拉動和需求。因此，我們的許多單位在通過時仍處於零售狀態。這個百分比已經下降了一點，但我們仍然非常有意識地與我們的經銷商合作，確保車輪轉動並且它們在地段上不會陳舊。所以我們從中得到了更好的經銷商拉動。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

I'm wondering if we could just talk about the '23 EBITDA guidance, nice to see the growth versus '22. Can we just talk about it at the segment level, how much of that growth is anticipated in RV versus the sequential improvement in Fire & Emergency and Commercial that you spoke to earlier on the call? Can we just talk about by segment the growth drivers 23 versus '22?

我想知道我們是否可以只談論 23 年的 EBITDA 指南，很高興看到與 22 年相比的增長。我們能否僅在細分市場層面討論一下，RV 的預期增長與您早些時候在電話會議上談到的消防與應急和商業的連續改善相比有多少？我們能否按細分市場討論 23 年和 22 年的增長驅動因素？

Yes. So I think from an overall segment perspective, we'd be looking at, as we talked about the throughput in our F&E side, getting into that coming off of where we ended up relatively flat 2% to 2.5% to more into the 30% to 35% range for next year. And then commercial being in the 20-30% range, more of a normalized between '21 and '22 range and then some dollar pressure on recreation related to the mix that we talked about, right, that having more Towables. As you know, we've extended our reach into the East. So we'll be selling more Towables and eat through some of that backlog. So mix will have a downward pressure on Recreation, but we'd be more in that $95 million to $100 million to sort of range for Recreation for those 3 segments or to get you to where the full year number is with some choppiness as we talked about in Q1 and Q2 across those segments.

是的。因此，我認為從整體細分市場的角度來看，當我們談到 F&E 方面的吞吐量時，我們會考慮從我們最終相對持平的 2% 到 2.5% 到更多的 30%到明年的 35% 範圍內。然後商業在 20-30% 的範圍內，更多的是在 '21 和 '22 範圍之間標準化，然後與我們談到的混合相關的娛樂有一些美元壓力，對，有更多的 Towables。如您所知，我們已經將業務範圍擴展到東方。因此，我們將銷售更多的 Towables 並解決一些積壓的問題。因此，混合會對娛樂產生下行壓力，但我們會在這 9500 萬到 1 億美元之間增加這 3 個部分的娛樂範圍，或者讓你達到我們所說的全年數字有些波動的地方關於這些細分市場的第一季度和第二季度。

Super. And then can we just talk about Recreation. I mean, you folks have done an outstanding job of expanding margins in that line of business. Obviously, we're going to give a little bit back with mix as you alluded to. But how do you think about the full cycle range of margins for the business as it stands today, what would you view as trough and peak as you run a range of scenarios of what volumes might look like given all the improvements you've made in RV?

極好的。然後我們可以談談娛樂嗎？我的意思是，你們在擴大該行業的利潤率方面做得非常出色。顯然，正如您提到的那樣，我們將通過 mix 做出一些回饋。但是，您如何看待目前業務的整個週期利潤率範圍，當您運行一系列場景時，您認為什麼是低谷和高峰，考慮到您在房車？

Yes. With the mix, Jerry, we're still confident that we're in that 10% range. So we've always said Class A can dip in the low single digits if there was a real trough. But ultimately, with the mix we have with the Bs and Cs exposure as well as what we've done on the towable side and improving that business as we do that, we're filled based on the guidance we've given today, we're still in that 10% to 10.5% range for the year. But I guess you could say we're probably in mid-7% trough margins probably that with the mix that we have. When you mix in the As and Towables against our Bs and Cs.

是的。有了混合，傑里，我們仍然相信我們在 10% 的範圍內。所以我們一直說，如果有一個真正的低谷，A 類可以下降到較低的個位數。但最終，結合我們對 Bs 和 Cs 的風險敞口，以及我們在可牽引方面所做的工作，並在我們這樣做的同時改進該業務，我們根據今天給出的指導充滿了信心，我們今年仍處於 10% 至 10.5% 的範圍內。但我想你可以說我們可能處於 7% 的低谷利潤率可能是我們擁有的組合。當您將 As 和 Towables 與我們的 Bs 和 Cs 混合使用時。

Our next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的傑米庫克。

Just 2 questions. One, if deflation starts to materialize, where do you think you can continue to have the most pricing power?

只有2個問題。第一，如果通貨緊縮開始出現，你認為你可以在哪裡繼續擁有最大的定價權？

And then my second question, understanding you have a strong backlog with Recreational. But just given concerns of a consumer recession. This business has been driving the majority of your EBITDA growth. When can we expect a mix of EPS from our Emergency (technical difficulty) just reliant on Recreational?

然後是我的第二個問題，了解您在娛樂方面有大量積壓。但只是考慮到消費者衰退的擔憂。這項業務一直在推動您的大部分 EBITDA 增長。我們什麼時候可以期待僅依賴於娛樂的緊急（技術困難）的 EPS 組合？

Yes. I think on the recreation side, like we highlight there, Jamie, previously. I think we're in a different position than some of our competitors, like Rod talked about. We didn't get ahead of ourselves in stopping some of the dealer channels here. So when you look at our actual inventory still down 50% from pre-covid levels. And we can see some demand for those Bs and C market as well as we have, as we talked about before, our Lance product in the towables unit in the towables business is more of a niche product, and it still has a strong drop from the market. So we have not seen a dip from that perspective. Our backlog continues to hold up a full year's worth of production. So we're not seeing even with the minimal cancellation I talked about, we're not seeing a hit to our full year guidance, at least what we're providing here. And then from a price realization perspective, obviously, on the Recreation side, that will be more of maintaining the price that we have and going after inflationary push to make sure we get the savings that we deserve as some of the commodity prices come down. And when you talk about price realization, its majority of it is getting to that '21 and '22 pricing that I highlighted in my call that just given the throughput challenges we have had enough need, we have a lot of older units that haven't had the pricing that's been injected over the last couple of years. So it's really a throughput story. The first half is really both in Commercial and F&E is getting through the units that have aged in our backlog so that we get the units that have margin expansion opportunity in them in the second half of the year. So that's really the story here in the first half. It's all about throughput within F&E and Commercial and getting some of the older units out of the backlog. And then realizing pricing in the back half that's already been sold into the market.

是的。我認為在娛樂方面，就像我們之前強調的那樣，傑米。我認為我們與我們的一些競爭對手處於不同的位置，就像羅德所說的那樣。我們並沒有提前停止這裡的一些經銷商渠道。因此，當您查看我們的實際庫存時，仍然比 covid 之前的水平下降了 50%。我們可以看到對那些 Bs 和 C 市場的一些需求，正如我們之前談到的，我們在可牽引業務的可牽引單元中的 Lance 產品更像是一種利基產品，它仍然有很大的下降市場。因此，從這個角度來看，我們沒有看到下降。我們積壓的訂單繼續支撐一整年的生產。因此，即使我談到的取消最少，我們也沒有看到我們的全年指導受到打擊，至少我們在這裡提供的是這樣。然後從價格實現的角度來看，顯然，在娛樂方面，這將更多地維持我們擁有的價格並在通貨膨脹推動之後確保我們在一些商品價格下降時獲得我們應得的儲蓄。當你談到價格實現時，它的大部分都達到了我在電話中強調的 '21 和 '22 定價，考慮到我們已經有足夠需求的吞吐量挑戰，我們有很多舊的單位沒有'沒有在過去幾年中註入的定價。所以這真的是一個吞吐量的故事。上半年實際上是商業和 F&E 正在處理我們積壓中已經老化的單位，以便我們在下半年獲得有利潤擴張機會的單位。這就是上半年的故事。這一切都與 F&E 和商業部門的吞吐量有關，並使一些較舊的單元擺脫積壓。然後在已經出售給市場的後半部分實現定價。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our next question is from Mircea Dobre with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mircea Dobre 和 Baird。

So sticking with the discussion on recreation, sorry to beat a dead horse here, but in the press release, you talked about backlog normalization. And I'm sort of curious as to how you think about that dynamic in fiscal '23. What does normalized backlog look like in Recreation? How would you expect backlog to exit the year?

所以堅持關於娛樂的討論，很抱歉在這裡打了一個死馬，但在新聞稿中，你談到了積壓正常化。我很好奇你如何看待 23 財年的這種動態。 Recreation 中的規範化積壓工作是什麼樣的？您如何看待今年的積壓工作？

Yes, we're sort of more in the 6- to 7-month window, that's sort of what we traditionally have seen. As you know, in last year, we had over a 2-year backlog which would not normalize. So we're talking about getting back to the levels that we expect. So we'll have less bookings who will be getting through the backlog. And as you know, in this business, we do have new model years. So some items like I highlighted in my discussion is orders that were placed on '22 that will be converted to '23 model. So there's always an ever-changing backlog dynamic there, but we are seeing reorder rates on the '23s and some of the things that Rod highlighted with the awards that we won at the open house. So we are very happy with those. So that's more of the 6- to 7-month sort of window that we're talking about here on those versus the 2 years down to more of a 1 year that we're experiencing now.

是的，我們更多地處於 6 到 7 個月的窗口期，這就是我們傳統上看到的情況。如您所知，去年我們有超過 2 年的積壓工作無法正常化。所以我們正在談論回到我們期望的水平。因此，我們將有更少的訂單來處理積壓的訂單。如您所知，在這項業務中，我們確實有新的車型年份。因此，我在討論中強調的一些項目是在 '22 上放置的訂單，這些訂單將轉換為 '23 模型。因此，那裡總是存在不斷變化的積壓動態，但我們看到了 23 年代的重新訂購率以及 Rod 在開放日獲得的獎項中強調的一些事情。所以我們對這些非常滿意。所以這更多的是我們在這裡談論的 6 到 7 個月的窗口，而不是我們現在正在經歷的 2 年到 1 年以上的窗口。

Understood. Because where I'm going with this, I'm trying to get a sense for where underlying market demand really is for your product. I recognize that you have backlog, right? But if we're kind of thinking about the order run rate and how that should inform us into '24, I mean, if your backlog is coming down to the extent that you're talking about in fiscal '23, should investors be thinking that revenues are going to be down in '24? Or do you think 24 can actually be a growth year for this business?

明白了。因為我要解決這個問題，所以我試圖了解您的產品的潛在市場需求在哪裡。我知道你有積壓，對吧？但是，如果我們正在考慮訂單運行率以及它應該如何通知我們進入 24 世紀，我的意思是，如果您的積壓訂單減少到您在 23 財年談論的程度，投資者是否應該考慮24 年的收入會下降嗎？還是您認為 24 年實際上可以成為該業務的增長年？

Yes. We're not obviously giving '24 guidance, but we know we've had elevated backlog. So it's really getting that business back to a normalized level, which we're very comfortable in the performance. And as we've been talking about the last 3 years here, 2.5 years is we're really managing the business for margin expansion and doing the work that we've done here. So even at a lower revenue, especially as you look at our performance issue, our Class A business, even at lower revenues, we've been able to produce margin expansion. So it's more amount holding the margins here in a challenging market as we enter here.

是的。我們顯然沒有給出 24 小時的指導，但我們知道我們的積壓情況有所增加。所以它真的讓業務恢復到正常水平，我們對性能感到非常滿意。正如我們在這裡談論的過去 3 年一樣，2.5 年是我們真正管理業務以擴大利潤並完成我們在這裡所做的工作。因此，即使收入較低，特別是當您查看我們的業績問題時，我們的 A 類業務，即使收入較低，我們也能夠實現利潤率擴張。因此，當我們進入這裡時，在充滿挑戰的市場中保持利潤率更多。

Okay. And then maybe my final question, surrounding your '23 guidance, and I appreciated all the color on the moving pieces here, the 35% to 65% split on EBITDA first half versus second half, I mean, if I look at fiscal '22, it was about 40%, 60%. So arguably speaking, you're a little bit slower in '23 relative to '22 and the way you start the year. So I guess I'm wondering what gives you the comfort or the visibility that you'll be able to achieve that ramp in the back half? Because it sounds like the timing issue in recreation is really between first and second quarter, not first half, second half. Any help there would be great.

好的。然後也許是我的最後一個問題，圍繞你的 23 年指導，我欣賞這裡移動部分的所有顏色，EBITDA 上半年與下半年的 35% 到 65% 的分裂，我的意思是，如果我看一下 22 財年，大約是40%、60%。所以可以說，你在 23 年相對於 22 年和你開始這一年的方式有點慢。所以我想我想知道是什麼讓您感到舒適或能夠在後半部分實現斜坡的可見性？因為聽起來娛樂的時間問題實際上是在第一節和第二節之間，而不是上半場、下半場。任何幫助都會很棒。

Yes. So it's more around the units like we talked about, not a lot of throughput in our ability to get these older units out, as I highlighted for Jamie. So it's really a margin discussion on we'll have the revenue, but these are lower margin units like I highlight on Commercial, which we talked about on the last couple of earnings calls as well as on the F&E side, as we convert, especially in our holding facility, convert the older KME as well as far units there. Those will have no pricing related to the '21 and '22 increases that were put out there. So it's really a margin discussion of, again, getting the throughput on those units, and we do have truck-by-truck visibility. So we know what we're producing and what the margins are on those trucks. So we feel pretty comfortable that, that is the shift that will happen. Obviously, if there was a supply chain challenge that extended beyond '23, it's beyond the Q3 or Q2, I should say, into Q3, that would shift a little bit, but we feel comfortable that our ability to ramp as well as obviously qualifier being making sure we get the chassis that we need to produce. But we do have ramps built into our plan as we continue to see improvements in supply chain as well as in the chassis supply.

是的。因此，正如我為 Jamie 強調的那樣，它更多地圍繞著我們談論的單元，而不是我們將這些舊單元拿出來的能力。所以這真的是關於我們將獲得收入的保證金討論，但這些是利潤率較低的單位，就像我在商業上強調的那樣，我們在最近幾次財報電話會議以及 F&E 方面都談到了這一點，因為我們轉換，特別是在我們的控股設施中，轉換舊的 KME 以及那裡的遠單位。這些將沒有與那裡提出的 '21 和 '22 增長相關的定價。因此，這真的是一個邊緣討論，再次獲得這些單位的吞吐量，我們確實有逐卡車的可見性。所以我們知道我們在生產什麼以及這些卡車的利潤是多少。所以我們感到很舒服，這就是將要發生的轉變。顯然，如果供應鏈挑戰延伸到 23 年以後，它會超出第三季度或第二季度，我應該說，進入第三季度，這會發生一點變化，但我們感到很自在的是，我們的提升能力以及明顯的資格賽確保我們得到我們需要生產的底盤。但隨著我們繼續看到供應鍊和底盤供應的改善，我們確實在我們的計劃中內置了坡道。

Okay. So it's really driven by Fire rather than Recreation?

好的。所以它真的是由火而不是娛樂驅動的嗎？

Yes, Fire and Commercial. Recreation, yes, to your point, first half, second half, you wouldn't see that sort of jump there. It's really just the Q1 comments, actually in Q1 with this recall not being able to ship, but we're expecting to ship both in Q2, as you noted. So it's not a first half, second half challenge. That's more of a normalized revenue Recreation more in the F&E and Commercial segment that you're going to see a disproportionate first half, second half based on the items we've highlighted.

是的，消防和商業。娛樂，是的，就你的觀點而言，上半場、下半場，你不會在那裡看到那種跳躍。這真的只是第一季度的評論，實際上是在第一季度，這次召回無法發貨，但正如你所指出的，我們預計將在第二季度發貨。所以這不是上半場、下半場的挑戰。根據我們強調的項目，在 F&E 和商業領域，這更多是正常化的收入娛樂，你會看到不成比例的上半年，下半年。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Rod Rushing for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給 Rod Rushing 以徵求結束意見。

All right. Thank you. Okay. I appreciate everyone joining us on today's call. While fiscal 2022 presented continued external challenges, we maintained a course of action to deploying the elements of the REV drive system, targeting multi-sourcing supply, improving our engineering, production planning and materials management capabilities. We also remain disciplined in our pricing actions across all of our businesses, with price taken to offset inflation and provide margin expansion opportunity. We have just begun to realize the initial round of these price actions. These pricing actions combined with increased throughput from a few supply chain environment, we believe, will position us well for improved results as we move through this fiscal year and in our fiscal year 2024. In closing, I'd like to thank our entire team for the efforts throughout the past year and wish everyone a safe and happy holiday season. Thank you for your time today.

好的。謝謝你。好的。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。儘管 2022 財年面臨持續的外部挑戰，但我們保持了部署 REV 驅動系統元素的行動方針，以多源供應為目標，提高我們的工程、生產計劃和材料管理能力。我們還對所有業務的定價行為保持紀律，採取價格來抵消通貨膨脹並提供利潤擴張機會。我們剛剛開始意識到這些價格行動的第一輪。我們相信，這些定價行動加上一些供應鏈環境帶來的吞吐量增加，將使我們在本財年和 2024 財年取得更好的成績。最後，我要感謝我們的整個團隊感謝過去一年的努力，祝大家節日快樂。謝謝你今天的時間。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。