REV Group Inc (REVG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to REV Group's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 REV 集團 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Drew Konop, Vice President Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給東道主投資者關係副總裁德魯·科諾普 (Drew Konop) 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us on today's call. Earlier today, we issued our third quarter fiscal 2023 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com. Today's call is being webcast and a slide presentation which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures, is available on our website.

早上好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 財年第三季度業績。該新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 Investors.revgroup.com 上獲取。今天的電話會議正在進行網絡直播，我們的網站上提供了幻燈片演示，其中包括非公認會計原則與公認會計原則財務指標的調節。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include among others matters that we've described in our Form 8K filed with the SEC earlier today and other filings that we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on the call today to a quarter or a year are our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

現在請參閱該演示文稿的幻燈片 2。我們的評論和回答將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果不同的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天早些時候向 SEC 提交的 8K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中描述的其他事項。我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務，這些聲明可能要等到我們下一次季度收益電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。除非另有說明，今天電話會議中提到的所有季度或年度均為我們的財政季度或財政年度。

Joining me on the call today is our President and CEO, Mark Skonieczny.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官馬克·斯科涅茨尼 (Mark Skonieczny)。

Please turn to Slide 3 and I'll turn the call over to Mark.

請翻到幻燈片 3，我會將電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Drew, and good morning to everyone joining us on today's call. Today we'll be discussing our third quarter performance that continues to reflect top and bottom line improvements compared to the prior year. I am very pleased with the progress we are making to advance the initiatives we laid out in prior quarters to increase throughput at several locations across the enterprise, particularly within the F&E segment.

謝謝你，德魯，祝所有參加今天電話會議的人早上好。今天，我們將討論第三季度的業績，與去年相比，該業績繼續反映了收入和利潤的改善。我對我們在推進前幾個季度製定的舉措方面所取得的進展感到非常高興，這些舉措旨在提高整個企業多個地點的吞吐量，特別是在餐飲和娛樂領域。

As you may recall, these detailed initiatives are focused on resource planning, both internal and external, improving upfront process capabilities across sales, engineering, purchasing and material management teams and optimizing factory and production line configurations. Shortly, I'll provide an overview of our consolidated third quarter performance as well as detailed segment financials.

您可能還記得，這些詳細計劃的重點是內部和外部資源規劃，提高銷售、工程、採購和材料管理團隊的前期流程能力，以及優化工廠和生產線配置。很快，我將概述我們第三季度的綜合業績以及詳細的部門財務狀況。

Before I comment on the quarterly results, I would like to highlight some notable items that occurred within the quarter. First, demand for our products remain strong with consolidated backlog of 5% from the prior year to $4.1 billion. The resiliency of the company's consolidated backlog is primarily result of strong order intake within the Fire & Emergency segment, which ended the third quarter with its 11 consecutive quarter of record backlog as well as strong orders for school buses over the past year within the Commercial segment.

在評論季度業績之前，我想強調一下本季度發生的一些值得注意的事項。首先，對我們產品的需求依然強勁，綜合積壓訂單比上年增加了 5%，達到 41 億美元。該公司綜合積壓訂單的彈性主要得益於消防和應急部門的強勁訂單，截至第三季度末，該部門已連續 11 個季度創下創紀錄的積壓訂單，以及過去一年商業部門的校車訂單強勁。

Municipal budgets remain strong with the backing of multi-year federal stimulus programs, plus local funds aimed at modernizing public service vehicle fleets, a total of 5 businesses within the Fire & Emergency segment and our Type A school bus business set records for order revenue within the quarter. We believe this reflects the quality of our vehicles, strengths of our brands and breadth of the dealer network across our portfolio.

在多年聯邦刺激計劃的支持下，市政預算依然強勁，加上旨在實現公共服務車隊現代化的地方資金，消防和應急部門的總共5 家企業以及我們的A 型校車業務在2017 年創下了訂單收入記錄。該季度。我們相信，這反映了我們車輛的質量、我們品牌的優勢以及我們產品組合中經銷商網絡的廣度。

The stability of municipal-based backlog provides long-term visibility for sourcing strategies and production planning, as well as executing on our platforming and operational improvement roadmaps. Industry leadership, products innovation and a continued focus on safety among the reasons we hold top positions in the markets we serve. Within the quarter, Horton emergency vehicles delivered its first ambulance equipped with the Horton Occupant Protection System featuring MBrace to New Orleans EMS.

基於市政的積壓訂單的穩定性為採購策略和生產規劃以及執行我們的平台和運營改進路線圖提供了長期可見性。行業領先地位、產品創新和對安全的持續關注是我們在所服務的市場中保持領先地位的原因。本季度內，Horton 急救車輛向新奧爾良 EMS 交付了第一輛配備採用 MBrace 的 Horton 乘員保護系統的救護車。

This advanced airbag safety system that's designed specifically to protect emergency care providers against head and neck injuries during frontal impacts and rollover situations while they are inside the patient compartment. MBrace integrates an airbag into an innovative multi-point restraint that protects the emergency care providers while allowing them mobility and freedom to work is an important milestone for the industry, an example of our company's commitment to deliver solutions that provide safety enhancements to our nation's first responders.

這種先進的安全氣囊安全系統專為保護緊急護理人員在患者室內時在正面碰撞和翻車情況下免受頭部和頸部傷害而設計。 MBrace 將安全氣囊集成到創新的多點約束裝置中，可保護緊急護理人員，同時允許他們移動和自由地工作，這是該行業的一個重要里程碑，也是我們公司致力於提供解決方案的一個例子，該解決方案可增強我們國家第一家醫院的安全性。響應者。

Within the quarter, we converted earnings to cash with free cash flow conversion at 268% of adjusted net income. Quarterly net income was a 2-year high and trade working capital decreased by $51 million sequentially. Year-to-date free cash flow conversion reached 110% of adjusted net income. We believe there's opportunity to continue to reduce our trade working capital over the next several quarters. Despite the overall solid working capital performance within the quarter, consolidated inventory is 45 million higher than prior year, which include 50 million of additional chassis. In previous calls, I stated that we would be willing to accept delivery and put more chassis on the balance sheet due to the constraints we experienced in fiscal 2022. The increase in chassis inventory has helped our business plan production more efficiently, a key lever to the F&E and Commercial segment revenue growth year-to-date.

在本季度內，我們將收益轉換為現金，自由現金流轉換率為調整後淨利潤的 268%。季度淨利潤創兩年來新高，貿易營運資本環比減少 5100 萬美元。年初至今，自由現金流轉換達到調整後淨利潤的 110%。我們相信，未來幾個季度我們有機會繼續減少貿易營運資金。儘管本季度營運資本表現總體穩健，但綜合庫存比去年同期高出 4500 萬個，其中包括 5000 萬個額外機箱。在之前的電話中，我表示，由於我們在2022 財年遇到的限制，我們願意接受交貨，並在資產負債表上放置更多的底盤。底盤庫存的增加幫助我們的業務計劃更有效地生產，這是實現目標的關鍵槓桿。 F&E 和商業部門今年迄今的收入增長。

Exiting the third quarter, our chassis inventory secured not only fourth quarter production, but in many cases production into and through the first quarter of next fiscal year. As we exit the year, we'll continue efforts to optimize total inventory by utilizing chassis pools and dealer floor planning arrangements.

第三季度結束後，我們的底盤庫存不僅保證了第四季度的生產，而且在許多情況下保證了下一財年第一季度的生產。年底時，我們將繼續努力通過利用底盤池和經銷商平面圖安排來優化總庫存。

Finally, today we are raising guidance for fiscal 2023. We are pleased with the momentum we are building with our productivity and product simplification initiatives. Within the quarter, some of our businesses saw improvement in their throughput rates, resulting in increased starts and completions. With increased product completions, these locations are experiencing improved price realization as they worked through their older backlog and produce higher price units that resulted from the price increases that were enacted over the past 18 months. Increased throughput coupled with other operational improvements result in bottom line momentum within the F&E segment and helped 2 of 3 businesses within the Commercial segment to exceed our 2023 profitability targets provided at the 2021 Investor Day.

最後，今天我們提高了 2023 財年的指導意見。我們對生產力和產品簡化計劃所形成的勢頭感到滿意。在本季度內，我們的一些業務的吞吐率有所提高，從而導致開工率和竣工率增加。隨著產品完工量的增加，這些地點的價格實現有所提高，因為他們正在處理舊的積壓訂單，並生產出因過去 18 個月實施的價格上漲而導致的更高價格的產品。吞吐量的增加加上其他運營方面的改進，帶來了餐飲和娛樂領域的盈利動力，並幫助商業領域的3 家企業中的2 家超過了我們在2021 年投資者日提出的2023 年盈利目標。

Within the Recreation segment, backlog and shipments from our 2 most profitable businesses provided path to deliver on our fiscal 2023 margin guidance provided last December. As a result, we have raised a consolidated midpoint guidance for net sales by 3% and adjusted EBITDA by 10% for fiscal year 2023.

在娛樂領域，我們兩家盈利能力最強的業務的積壓訂單和發貨量為我們實現去年 12 月提供的 2023 財年利潤指引提供了途徑。因此，我們將 2023 財年的淨銷售額綜合中點指導上調了 3%，並將 EBITDA 調整了 10%。

Now turning to our third quarter results in Slide 4. Consolidating that sales of $680 million increased $85 million or 14% compared to the third quarter of the prior year. The increase was driven by higher shipments and sales within the F&E and Commercial segments partially offset by lower sales in the Recreation segment. F&E segment sales reflect a 34% increase in fire group sales and a 51% increase in ambulance group sales. The fire group increase was primarily result of higher unit shipments, which benefited from an improved supply chain, price realization and early success of productivity initiatives aimed at increasing throughput.

現在轉向幻燈片 4 中的第三季度業績。合併 6.8 億美元的銷售額後，與去年第三季度相比增加了 8500 萬美元，即 14%。這一增長是由餐飲娛樂和商業部門的出貨量和銷售額增加推動的，但部分被娛樂部門銷售額的下降所抵消。 F&E 部門的銷售額反映出消防組銷售額增長了 34%，救護車組銷售額增長了 51%。火力組的增長主要是單位出貨量增加的結果，這得益於供應鏈的改善、價格實現以及旨在提高吞吐量的生產力舉措的早期成功。

Unit shipments of fire apparatus increased 30% from the prior year reaching a 2.5 year high. Increased ambulance group sales were related to higher unit shipments as well as price realization from early rounds of increases enacted throughout fiscal '21 and '22. Ambulance shipments increased 42% versus last year's trough that was impacted by supply chain and chassis constraints.

消防器材單位出貨量比上年增長30%，達到2.5年來的最高點。救護車組銷售額的增加與單位出貨量的增加以及 21 財年和 22 財年實施的早期幾輪價格上漲的實現有關。受供應鍊和底盤限制的影響，救護車出貨量較去年低谷增長了 42%。

Record Commercial segment sales continued to benefit from higher shipments of school buses and terminal trucks and price realizations. Due to the relatively short backlogs entering 2022, these 2 businesses have been the first to fully realize new pricing put in place last year. Lower recreation sales were primarily a result of lower unit shipments of non-motorized categories and an unfavorable mix of lower price gas units within the Class A business.

創紀錄的商業部門銷售繼續受益於校車和碼頭卡車出貨量的增加以及價格的實現。由於進入 2022 年的積壓相對較短，這兩家企業率先完全實現了去年實施的新定價。娛樂銷售額下降的主要原因是非機動類別的單位出貨量減少以及 A 級業務中價格較低的燃氣單位的不利組合。

Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $39.4 million, increased $9.9 million or 34% versus last year with increased contribution from the Fire & Emergency and Commercial segments, partially offset by lower contribution from the Recreation segment. Higher contribution from the F&E segments includes improve results in both the fire and ambulance group. Commercial segment EBITDA benefited from improved profitability in the school bus and specialty businesses partially offset by a decline in municipal transit business. The lower recreation contribution was primarily related to fewer shipments and increased discounting within certain categories.

綜合調整後 EBITDA 為 3,940 萬美元，比去年增加 990 萬美元，增幅為 34%，原因是消防與應急和商業部門的貢獻增加，但部分被娛樂部門的貢獻減少所抵消。 F&E 部門的更高貢獻包括改善消防和救護車部門的業績。商業部門的 EBITDA 受益於校車和特種業務盈利能力的提高，部分被市政交通業務的下降所抵消。娛樂貢獻較低主要與出貨量減少和某些類別的折扣增加有關。

Please turn to Page 5 of the slide deck as I move to a review of our third quarter segment results. Fire & Emergency third quarter segment sales were $323 million, an increase of 40% compared to the prior year. The increase in net sales was primarily due to increase shipments of fire apparatus and ambulance units, a favorable mix of higher content ambulance units and price realization. Fire group throughput increased sequentially in year-over-year to reach a 2-year high in net sales. All fire businesses contributed with third quarter shipments marking fiscal year-to-date high.

請翻到幻燈片的第 5 頁，我將回顧我們的第三季度部門業績。消防與應急部門第三季度銷售額為 3.23 億美元，比上年增長 40%。淨銷售額的增長主要是由於消防設備和救護車單位出貨量的增加、高含量救護車單位的有利組合以及價格實現。消防集團吞吐量同比連續增長，淨銷售額創兩年來新高。所有消防業務的第三季度出貨量均創本財年迄今為止的最高水平。

The Holden plant, which received the majority of KME brand production after its footprint was rationalized, shipped the highest number of units since the third quarter of 2020. Shipments of ambulance reached an 11-quarter high resulting in the group's highest quarterly sales over the past 6 years, all ambulance businesses increased throughput sequentially and year-over-year as improved material availability provided confidence to higher labor and ramp production throughout the year-to-date period. Successive productivity initiatives result in sequential unit shipment increases of 20% and 12% at our 2 largest plants.

霍頓工廠在佈局合理化後接收了大部分 KME 品牌的生產，出貨量創 2020 年第三季度以來最高。救護車出貨量創 11 季度新高，導致集團單季度銷量創歷史新高六年來，所有救護車業務的吞吐量連續逐年增加，因為材料可用性的改善為全年迄今為止的勞動力增加和產量增加提供了信心。連續的生產力計劃使我們最大的兩家工廠的單位出貨量連續增加了 20% 和 12%。

F&E segment adjusted EBITDA was $18.1 million in third quarter 2023 compared to adjusted EBITDA of $1 million in third quarter of 2022. The increase would primarily result the higher volume, manufacturing efficiencies and improved price realization partially offset by inflationary pressures. Fire group profitability improved 430 basis points for the prior year and 320 basis points sequentially. Improved profitability was primarily due to higher sales volume, manufacturing efficiencies and improved price realization at several plants. Profitability that our largest fire apparatus plant reach a 2-year high and our primary chassis plant reach a 3-year high.

2023 年第三季度，F&E 部門調整後EBITDA 為1810 萬美元，而2022 年第三季度調整後EBITDA 為100 萬美元。這一增長主要導致產量增加、製造效率提高以及價格實現提高，但部分被通脹壓力所抵消。 Fire Group 盈利能力較上年提高 430 個基點，較上一季度提高 320 個基點。盈利能力的提高主要歸功於多個工廠銷量的提高、製造效率的提高以及價格實現的提高。最大消防器材工廠盈利能力創兩年來新高，底盤主機工廠盈利能力創三年新高。

The Holden plant has continued to advance the integration of the KME branded product into its production cadence. Although these KME units are lower margin, given the slow ramp and inflationary headwinds experienced since the move improved starts and a more continuous workflow over the past 2 quarters has produced increased completions of these units and accelerated the plant's opportunity for improved sales and margin in fourth quarter and beyond.

霍頓工廠繼續推進 KME 品牌產品與其生產節奏的整合。儘管這些KME 裝置的利潤率較低，但考慮到自搬遷改善開工以來所經歷的緩慢增長和通脹逆風，以及過去兩個季度更加連續的工作流程，增加了這些裝置的完工量，並加速了工廠在第四季度提高銷售額和利潤率的機會季度及以後。

Ambulance group profitability improved 670 basis points compared to last year with the largest plant reaching a 5-year high in adjusted EBITDA margin and dollars. Year-to-date, 2 of the group's 4 businesses have reached a 2023 margin target provided at the 2021 Investor Day. There has been significant progress in the other 2 businesses as well with year-to-date margin improvement of 370 and 500 basis points compared to the same period last year. This momentum positions group well to achieve our intermediate margin target goal set forth at the 2021 Investor Day.

與去年相比，救護車集團的盈利能力提高了 670 個基點，最大的工廠調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和美元金額均達到 5 年來的新高。今年迄今為止，該集團 4 項業務中的 2 項已達到 2021 年投資者日規定的 2023 年利潤率目標。其他兩項業務也取得了顯著進展，年初至今的利潤率較去年同期分別提高了 370 和 500 個基點。這種勢頭使集團能夠很好地實現 2021 年投資者日設定的中期利潤率目標。

Record F&E backlog of 3.2 billion increased 49% year-over-year, reflecting strong orders and pricing actions. Industry demand remains above historical trends with a unit year-to-date, book-to-bill ratio of 1.4x. Our lead times remain industry competitive and our pricing strategy will continue to consider current and anticipate inflation that aligns with expected delivery dates. Today's update to the full year outlook anticipates maintaining the F&E segment, third quarter revenue run rate with approximately 50 to 75 basis points of sequential margin improvement as we continue to execute on our REV Drive operational excellence initiatives and produce more current priced units.

F&E 積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 32 億美元，同比增長 49%，反映出強勁的訂單和定價行動。行業需求仍高於歷史趨勢，年初至今的訂單出貨比為 1.4 倍。我們的交貨時間仍然具有行業競爭力，我們的定價策略將繼續考慮當前和與預期交貨日期一致的預期通貨膨脹。今天更新的全年展望預計，隨著我們繼續執行 REV Drive 卓越運營計劃並生產更多當前定價的產品，F&E 部門第三季度的收入運行率將保持約 50 至 75 個基點的連續利潤率改善。

Turning to Slide 6, Commercial segment sales of $143 million was an increase of 29% compared to the prior year. The increase was a result of higher unit sales of school buses, terminal trucks and street sweepers and price realization, partially offset by an unfavorable mix and supply chain challenges in the municipal transit bus business. Within that business, we continue to experience shortages of key components such as seats and wiring harnesses that are creating manufacturing inefficiencies and limiting shipments of complete units.

轉向幻燈片 6，商業部門銷售額為 1.43 億美元，比上年增長 29%。這一增長是由於校車、終點站卡車和街道清掃車的單位銷量增加以及價格實現增加的結果，但部分被市政公交業務的不利組合和供應鏈挑戰所抵消。在該業務中，我們繼續面臨座椅和線束等關鍵部件的短缺，這導致製造效率低下並限制了整機的出貨量。

Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA of $11.6 million, increased 71% versus the prior year. The increase in EBITDA was primarily result of higher shipments and price realization within the school bus, terminal truck and street sweeper businesses, partially offset by the inefficiencies in the transit bus business. Commercial segment backlog was $508 million at the end of third quarter, a decrease of 4% versus the prior year. The decrease in backlog is primarily a result of higher completion rates of school buses, terminal trucks and street sweepers and lower orders for terminal trucks and street sweepers, partially offset by record orders for school buses in the third quarter.

商業部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1160 萬美元，比上年增長 71%。 EBITDA 的增長主要是由於校車、終點站卡車和街道清掃車業務的出貨量和價格實現增加，但部分被公交巴士業務的低效率所抵消。截至第三季度末，商業部門積壓訂單為 5.08 億美元，較上年同期下降 4%。積壓的減少主要是由於校車、終端卡車和街道清掃車的完成率較高以及終端卡車和街道清掃車的訂單減少，但部分被第三季度創紀錄的校車訂單所抵消。

Unit backlog for terminal trucks and street sweepers have normalized in the 3 to 4 month range at current production rates and municipal transit has normalized approximately 12 months while school bus backlog remains higher than the historical trend. In the fourth quarter, we expect Commercial segment revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin to be similar to the past 2 quarters.

按目前的生產率計算，碼頭卡車和街道清掃車的單位積壓已在 3 至 4 個月內恢復正常，市政交通已在約 12 個月內恢復正常，而校車積壓仍高於歷史趨勢。在第四季度，我們預計商業部門收入和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將與過去兩個季度相似。

Turning to Slide 7. Recreation segment sales of $215 million was down 16% versus last year's quarter. Lower sales were primarily result of fewer shipments of Class A, Class B, towable and camper units and unfavorable mix of Class A gas units, which carry a lower average selling price and increased discounts in certain categories partially offsetting the decrease were higher sales of Class C units and price realization. Recreation segment adjusted to EBITDA of $18.4 million was a decrease of 38% versus the prior year. The decrease was primarily result of lower shipments and unfavorable mix of Class A gas units and increased discounting certain categories, partially offset by price realization and material savings.

轉向幻燈片 7。娛樂部門銷售額為 2.15 億美元，比去年同期下降 16%。銷量下降的主要原因是A 類、B 類、牽引式和露營車的出貨量減少以及A 類燃氣裝置的不利組合，這些裝置的平均售價較低，並且某些類別的折扣增加部分抵消了A 類燃氣裝置銷量增加帶來的下降C 單位和價格實現。娛樂部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 1840 萬美元，比上年下降 38%。下降的主要原因是出貨量減少和 A 級天然氣裝置的不利組合以及某些類別的折扣增加，但部分被價格實現和材料節省所抵消。

Segment backlog of $409 million decreased 67% versus the prior year. The decrease is primarily due to continued production against backlog and order cancellations primarily in the towable, camper and Class B categories. The overall segment net book-to-bill ratio, including our order cancellations was 0.6x within the quarter. However, over 90% of third quarter unit sales were replaced with orders for new model year 2024 units. Sequentially, new model year orders increased 13% compared to the second quarter.

部門積壓訂單為 4.09 億美元，比上年減少 67%。減少的主要原因是針對積壓訂單的持續生產以及主要針對牽引車、露營車和 B 類車的訂單取消。本季度整個部門的淨訂單出貨比（包括訂單取消量）為 0.6 倍。然而，第三季度超過 90% 的銷量被 2024 年新款車型的訂單所取代。隨後，新車型年度訂單較第二季度增長了 13%。

Exiting third quarter, our motorized business is represented over 90% of year-to-date segment profit and the backlog of those categories remained in a normalized range of 6 to 8 months. Today's updated guidance lowers the outlook for full year Recreation segment revenue and as a result is adjusted EBITDA dollars to reflect soft consumer demand and cautious dealer stocking activity primarily in the towable, camper and Class A categories.

截至第三季度，我們的機動化業務佔今年迄今部門利潤的 90% 以上，並且這些類別的積壓訂單仍保持在 6 至 8 個月的正常範圍內。今天更新的指引降低了全年休閒部門收入的前景，因此調整了 EBITDA 美元，以反映消費者需求疲軟和經銷商主要在牽引車、露營車和 A 級車類別中謹慎的庫存活動。

We now expect full year segment revenue to be down mid-single digit versus last year's record performance. This a slight decrease from the prior outlook of flat to down low single digits and reflects lower production rates that are aligned with lower order rates in the categories I just mentioned. Adjusted EBITDA margin is still expected to be in the high single digit to 10% range as the work backlog material cost increases flex cost to reflect lower sales activity and the categories mentioned and our expectation that Class B and Class C categories will continue to perform at a high level as they produce against backlog.

我們現在預計全年部門收入將比去年創紀錄的業績下降中個位數。這比之前的持平展望略有下降，反映出較低的生產率，這與我剛才提到的類別的較低訂單率一致。調整後的EBITDA 利潤率預計仍將在高個位數至10% 的範圍內，因為積壓工作材料成本增加了彈性成本，以反映銷售活動和提到的類別的減少，以及我們預計B 類和C類類別將繼續在一個高水平，因為他們生產積壓的產品。

Turning to Slide 8. Year-to-date cash from operating activities totaled $73.4 million, which reflects a strong third quarter performance. Trade working capital on July 31, 2023 was $313 million, a decrease of $34 million compared to $347.8 million at the end of fiscal '22 and a $50 million reduction sequentially. We spent $9.1 million of capital expenditures resulting in year-to-date free cash flow of $53.7 million. Net debt as of July 31 was $168 million including $11 million of cash on hand, a reduction of $53 million compared to the second quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8。年初至今，經營活動產生的現金總額為 7,340 萬美元，反映出第三季度的強勁業績。截至 2023 年 7 月 31 日的貿易營運資本為 3.13 億美元，比 22 財年末的 3.478 億美元減少了 3400 萬美元，比上一季度減少了 5000 萬美元。我們花費了 910 萬美元的資本支出，導致年初至今的自由現金流為 5,370 萬美元。截至 7 月 31 日，淨債務為 1.68 億美元，其中包括 1100 萬美元手頭現金，比第二季度減少 5300 萬美元。

We declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share, payable October 13 to shareholders record on September 29. At the end of the quarter, the company maintained the ample liquidity with approximately $356 million available under the ABL revolving credit facility and our net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio is 1.2x below our stated target range of 2x to 2.5x. Debt reduction and internal investments to drive organic growth remain our top allocation priorities within today's rising rate environment.

我們宣布派發每股0.05 美元的季度現金股息，將於10 月13 日支付給9 月29 日記錄的股東。截至本季度末，公司保持了充足的流動性，根據ABL 循環信貸安排可使用約3.56億美元，我們的淨債務為EBITDA 槓桿率比我們規定的 2 倍至 2.5 倍目標範圍低 1.2 倍。在當今利率上升的環境下，減少債務和內部投資以推動有機增長仍然是我們的首要配置優先事項。

Turning to Slide 9, as I mentioned earlier, today we are raising our full year outlook for net sales, adjusted EBITDA, net income, adjusted net income and free cash flow. The outlook for revenue is now in the range of $2.55 billion to $2.6 billion and increase of $75 million in midpoint. The range of adjusted EBITDA has been raised to $135 million to $145 million, an increase of $12.5 million at the midpoint. Guidance for adjusted net income is now in the range of $63 million to $73 million, and we raised expected cash conversion to a 100% or greater with free cash flow in the range of $70 million to $75 million.

轉向幻燈片 9，正如我之前提到的，今天我們上調了全年淨銷售額、調整後 EBITDA、淨利潤、調整後淨利潤和自由現金流的預期。目前收入前景在 25.5 億美元至 26 億美元之間，中間增加 7500 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 範圍已上調至 1.35 億美元至 1.45 億美元，中間增加了 1,250 萬美元。調整後淨利潤指導值目前在 6300 萬美元至 7300 萬美元之間，我們將預期現金轉換率提高到 100% 或更高，自由現金流在 7000 萬美元至 7500 萬美元之間。

Thank you again for joining us on today's call. Operator, we would now like to open up the call for questions.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議。接線員，我們現在要開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

This is Jatin Khanna on behalf of Jerry Revich. Excellent Fire & Emergency bookings. How much higher would you estimate the booked margins are compared to what flowed through the 5.6% margins this quarter?

我是賈汀·卡納 (Jatin Khanna)，代表傑里·雷維奇 (Jerry Revich)。出色的消防和緊急預訂。與本季度 5.6% 的利潤率相比，您預計預訂利潤率會高出多少？

So the book margins, is that the question?

那麼書頁邊距是問題所在嗎？

Right. Just an estimate of the book margins and how much higher are they compared to what flowed through the quarter?

正確的。只是對賬面利潤率的估計，以及與本季度的利潤率相比，它們高出多少？

Yes, so I think we've, over the last several quarters talked about the price increases we've put in over the past 18 months and within the Fire & Emergency segments, there's a little bit of difference between the ambulance and fire businesses. But on ambulance we've said, if you compound them it's about 40% and 35% on the fire side. So obviously that's accreted to the margin profile for the orders that are coming in. And that's since the implementation date of 2 years ago, right, that we've talked about over the last 18 months or so. So there are some, obviously the mix is a little different within the quarter, so we quote price realization. So that's the realization that we would get over the life of that backlog from start 0 to the end of the backlog.

是的，所以我認為我們在過去幾個季度討論了過​​去 18 個月內的價格上漲，在消防和緊急事故領域，救護車和消防業務之間存在一些差異。但在救護車上，我們說過，如果將它們混合起來，大約 40% 和 35% 都在火方。很明顯，這會增加新訂單的保證金狀況。這是自 2 年前實施以來的情況，對吧，我們在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡一直在討論這一點。所以有一些，顯然這個季度的組合有點不同，所以我們引用價格實現。因此，我們認識到我們將度過從 0 開始到積壓結束的整個積壓工作週期。

Our next question is from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Mike Shlisky。戴維森。

Maybe wanted to ask first about trucks supply going forward. There have been some cutbacks in call it Class 5, Class 4 through 6 maybe chassis over the last couple of quarters. It doesn't seem there's going to be much improvement ahead from what I've gathered so far. I'd just be curious to tell us how you feel about your business of chassis supply, particularly on the ambulance side over the next couple of quarters here?

也許想先詢問一下未來的卡車供應情況。在過去的幾個季度中，5 級、4 級到 6 級（可能是底盤）的名稱有所縮減。與我迄今為止收集到的信息相比，似乎不會有太大改進。我只是想告訴我們您對底盤供應業務的看法，特別是在接下來的幾個季度的救護車方面？

Yes, Mike like we said, we feel real good about our chassis supply and like in my prepared remarks, I did quote we have chassis supply through Q4 and then on the ambulance side there's obviously a mix difference between vans and mods. But looking out through Q1 at our current production rates, we would be secured with our chassis supply through Q1 and in some cases beyond that. So we feel real good on the ambulance side of having chassis availability. The mix would, might be the only challenge from that perspective, but overall we feel good that we have at least physical chassis on the ground through Q1 of next year.

是的，邁克，就像我們說的，我們對我們的底盤供應感覺非常好，就像在我準備好的評論中一樣，我確實引用了我們在第四季度的底盤供應，然後在救護車方面，貨車和改裝車之間顯然存在混合差異。但從第一季度我們目前的生產率來看，我們的底盤供應將在第一季度甚至在某些情況下得到保證。因此，我們對救護車方面的底盤可用性感到非常滿意。從這個角度來看，混合可能是唯一的挑戰，但總的來說，我們感覺很好，因為我們至少在明年第一季度擁有物理底盤。

Yes. Just to kind of follow up on that answer, so when you say you've got chassis supply, you have physical chassis on the -- onsite, I guess I'm kind of curious whether you've got a plan in place with, if there were to be any major labor disruptions with some of the contrasts that the automakers out there, which do build some of the commercial chassis too. Just curious if you have to have any kind of plan in place or if you do have one --

是的。只是為了跟進這個答案，所以當你說你有機箱供應時，你在現場有物理機箱，我想我有點好奇你是否已經制定了計劃，與汽車製造商形成鮮明對比的是，這些汽車製造商也生產一些商用底盤，是否會出現任何重大的勞動力中斷。只是好奇你是否必須制定某種計劃，或者你是否確實制定了計劃——

Yes, Mike, I would say the biggest impact is, like I quoted there is the mix, right? So we have physical chassis on hand and our production schedule obviously goes out a few months, so we're already looking at what units we would produce against if there were a strike or contracted supply of some sort, we just might have a different mix that we would have to then change our production schedule. But given it might come up here in the next week or so, we'll be able to revert to a different schedule based on what ultimately happens there. So it's really a mix discussion and making sure that we can change our production plans to meet the what chassis we do have on hand and new sales cycles.

是的，邁克，我想說最大的影響是，就像我引用的那樣，有混合，對吧？因此，我們手頭有物理底盤，而我們的生產計劃顯然要花幾個月的時間，所以我們已經在考慮如果發生罷工或某種合同供應，我們將生產哪些單位，我們可能會有不同的組合我們將不得不改變我們的生產計劃。但考慮到它可能會在下週左右出現，我們將能夠根據最終發生的情況恢復不同的時間表。因此，這實際上是一個混合討論，並確保我們可以更改生產計劃，以滿足我們現有的底盤和新的銷售週期。

Okay. And I just wanted to ask about recreation real quick as well. This marked the first quarter below 10% margins in quite some time, even with all the seasonal ups and downs, you had a pretty good margin run here. You're now below 10% as of this quarter. I know there are some ups and downs seasonally, I'd be curious if you feel like maybe over a 12-month period, whether it's the next 12 months or any near term 12-month period, whether you could hold the line on the double digit margin. And I'm curious in particularly whether you've got so many new year orders, such solid orders for the new year models, whether you've got good pricing there to get decent enough margins?

好的。我也只是想快速詢問有關娛樂的問題。這標誌著第一季度的利潤率在相當長的一段時間內低於 10%，即使經歷了季節性的起伏，你的利潤率仍然相當不錯。截至本季度，您的增長率低於 10%。我知道季節性會有一些起伏，我很好奇您是否覺得可能會持續 12 個月，無論是接下來的 12 個月還是任何近期的 12 個月，您是否可以堅持下去兩位數的保證金。我特別好奇的是，你們是否有這麼多的新年訂單，新年車型的訂單是否如此穩定，你們是否有良好的定價來獲得足夠的利潤？

Yes, I think so again, we're not going to give '24 guidance here, but we've always said that we feel comfortable we're going to be in that 8% to 10%, which is our range. And I think our, what we quoted in the call there, we are seeing some momentum in the new orders that we're seeing in 2024, as we did have less '22 and '23 units than our competition on the dealer lots. As we've talked about previously, we didn't get ahead of ourselves in the last 2 years, we actually produced at a relative modest level.

是的，我再次這麼認為，我們不會在這裡給出 24 年的指導，但我們總是說，我們對處於 8% 到 10% 的水平感到滿意，這是我們的範圍。我認為，我們在電話會議中引用的內容是，我們在 2024 年看到的新訂單出現了一些勢頭，因為我們在經銷商地段上的 '22 和 '23 單位確實比我們的競爭對手少。正如我們之前談到的，過去兩年我們並沒有超越自己，實際上我們的產出水平相對較低。

So we don't have a lot of aged units out on our dealer lot. So we've seen a nice take rate on the '24, as I said in my prepared remarks. And again, the next couple weeks are going to be key for the recreation to see what the market's going to do at the Hershey show this week, and then open house in 2 weeks in Elkhart. So we'll see what the consumer demand is and then also with our dealers in the open house in a couple weeks. So we'll be able to see what the order appetite's going to be going forward coming out of the performance of those 2 shows.

因此，我們的經銷商處沒有太多老化的設備。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們在 24 週年大會上看到了不錯的收視率。再說一次，接下來的幾週將是娛樂活動的關鍵，我們將在本週的好時展會上了解市場的走勢，然後在兩週後的埃爾克哈特展會上進行開放。因此，我們將了解消費者的需求是什麼，然後在幾週後與我們的經銷商一起進行開放日活動。因此，我們將能夠從這兩場演出的表現中看到訂單需求的變化。

Our next question is from Mig Dobre with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird。

Maybe to follow up on Michael there with recreation, just a point of clarification here. I heard you, I think in your prepared remarks say that 90% of sales were replaced with new orders in a quarter, I guess by my math, that would imply $193 million of orders that you've received in recreation. So the gap would be call it, give or take $60 million relative to the bookings you reported. So is that all cancellations that still happening this quarter?

也許是為了跟進邁克爾的娛樂活動，這裡只是澄清一下。我聽到你的意思了，我想你在準備好的發言中說，一個季度內90% 的銷售額被新訂單取代，根據我的數學計算，這意味著你在娛樂領域收到了1.93 億美元的訂單。因此，相對於您報告的預訂量，差距就是 6000 萬美元。那麼本季度所有取消活動仍在發生嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Then when we're looking at the backlog that you have here, the $409 million, do you anticipate any need for additional cancellations? Because it seems like all of that is coming from towables and such. What is that backlog mix at this point? And should we start to think that orders start to normalize here relative to current levels of demand going forward?

好的。那麼，當我們查看你們這裡的積壓訂單（4.09 億美元）時，您預計是否需要額外取消訂單？因為看起來所有這些都來自拖車之類的。目前的積壓情況是怎樣的？我們是否應該開始認為，相對於當前的需求水平，訂單開始正常化？

Yes. Yes, they will, and you're exactly right, Mig, the towables has hit the trough here and it is actually lower than historical norms. So it's very shortened. So that backlog has been exhausted from a towables perspective. And when you look at our other businesses, we still have a normalized and in our Class B and C, we still have an extended backlog from a historical trend there. So we would expect as these shows or as orders or as demand picks up that we'll see a backlog. I think most of the cancellations have flushed through the backlog now, especially with the '23 and '22 orders, obviously. So it's more around just the new products we have in '24.

是的。是的，他們會的，你說得對，米格，可牽引車已經跌入低谷，實際上低於歷史標準。所以它非常短。因此，從拖車的角度來看，積壓的訂單已經耗盡。當你看看我們的其他業務時，我們仍然處於正常狀態，在 B 類和 C 類業務中，我們仍然有歷史趨勢中的長期積壓。因此，我們預計，隨著這些顯示或訂單或需求的增加，我們將看到積壓。我認為大部分取消訂單現在已經被積壓的訂單沖掉了，尤其是“23”和“22”訂單，顯然。所以它更多地圍繞著我們 24 年的新產品。

So going back to that math $193 million, you would say that that order intake is actually pretty reflective of demand, and that's -- as we are thinking about your production maybe into '24, we should be thinking of ranging it around that level. Is that kind of the right takeaway here?

因此，回到 1.93 億美元的數學計算，您會說訂單量實際上相當反映了需求，而且，當我們考慮您的產量可能會持續到 24 年時，我們應該考慮將其範圍調整到該水平。這是正確的外賣嗎？

No, I think on the motorized, it's reflective. Motorized, I think there is going to be, again, I would say that towables is at a trough right now, so we would see at some pickup on the towable side, but again, we don't have a lot of exposure as you know on the towable side. So it's not going to swing significantly from a backlog revenue dollars but would on the unit's perspective. So again, our backlog's almost been fully exhausted in towables with probably a month sort of backlog there. So I would expect that to normalize back to the maybe 2 to 3 month basis as we've seen historically.

不，我認為在機動車輛上，它是反射性的。機動化，我認為將會再次出現，我會說牽引車現在正處於低谷，所以我們會看到可牽引側的一些皮卡，但同樣，我們沒有太多的曝光，因為你了解可牽引側。因此，它不會因積壓收入而大幅波動，但從該部門的角度來看會發生重大波動。再說一次，我們的拖車積壓幾乎已經耗盡，那裡可能積壓了一個月。因此，我預計這種情況會正常化回大約 2 到 3 個月的周期，正如我們歷史上看到的那樣。

And I'm sorry, last question on this segment. In terms of production in the fourth quarter for towables, where are you relative to sort of end market demand? I mean, are we to infer here that your production has been drastically curtailed as well, close to 0 in towables in the fourth quarter or not?

很抱歉，這是本部分的最後一個問題。就第四季度牽引車的產量而言，您與終端市場需求的關係如何？我的意思是，我們是否可以在此推斷你們的產量也已大幅削減，第四季度的可拖車產量接近於 0？

Not 0, it's about a 1 month backlog. So again, it's somewhere in the 80 to 120 units a month there, so down 50% similar to the market, right as we've traditionally done in the 200 type range, 150 to 200 and so.

不是0，大約是1個月的積壓。再說一次，它每月的產量在 80 到 120 台之間，所以與市場情況類似，下降了 50%，就像我們傳統上在 200 台、150 到 200 台等範圍內所做的那樣。

Okay. Then I have a couple more questions on Fire & Emergency. And I guess the first one, I appreciate all the details in terms of the moving parts within that segment. But just for clarification, which portions of the business are still operating at suboptimal level relative to sort of your longer term plans? So where do we still need to see a recovery and how much visibility do you have in terms of a timeline here for where you expect full normalization?

好的。然後我還有幾個關於消防和緊急情況的問題。我想第一個，我欣賞該部分中移動部件的所有細節。但為了澄清一下，相對於您的長期計劃，哪些業務部分的運營水平仍不理想？那麼，我們還需要在哪些方面看到復蘇？就您期望完全正常化的時間表而言，您有多少可見度？

Yes, we're still working through that, Mig, it's really on a plant by plant basis and the new management team we've put in there with the President and COO is really reflective and why we wanted to give that level of detail just to show that we are -- the President and the COO are addressing these location by location and we have localized plans as we've talked about before. So there is work to do. Obviously we're not there.

是的，我們仍在努力解決這個問題，米格，這實際上是在逐個工廠的基礎上進行的，我們與總裁和首席運營官一起組建的新管理團隊確實具有反思性，以及為什麼我們想要提供如此詳細的信息為了表明我們——總裁和首席運營官正在逐個地點解決這些問題，並且我們已經制定了本地化計劃，正如我們之前談到的那樣。所以還有工作要做。顯然我們不在那兒。

Our exit rate doesn't imply that we're going to be at that target. So there's probably half of the businesses still have some work to do to get us to that full range that we're talking about 7% to 8% in the midterm here. And then obviously long-term, we feel real good with the momentum we've built and the price realization and the margin expansion that we'll see in Q4. And then as the aged units exit the backlog with the new pricing we put in then we'll see margin expansion with that throughput increase.

我們的退出率並不意味著我們將達到該目標。因此，可能有一半的企業仍然需要做一些工作才能讓我們在中期達到我們所說的 7% 到 8% 的全面範圍。顯然，從長遠來看，我們對我們已經建立的勢頭、價格實現以及我們將在第四季度看到的利潤率擴張感到非常滿意。然後，隨著老化的設備按照我們制定的新定價退出積壓訂單，我們將看到利潤率隨著吞吐量的增加而擴大。

Right. When we're looking at the backlog itself, $3.2 billion, can you help us understand how much of that is deliverable in fiscal '24? And I guess related to your earlier comments about higher pricing flowing through now, why shouldn't we think about your exit run rate from Q4 margin as kind of the anchor for fiscal '24 margin altogether?

正確的。當我們查看積壓訂單本身（32 億美元）時，您能否幫助我們了解其中有多少可在 24 財年交付？我想與您之前關於現在定價較高的評論相關，為什麼我們不應該將您第四季度利潤率的退出運行率視為 24 財年利潤率的錨點？

Yes, I think that's right, that is the anchor of going forward. So we will see momentum coming off of that. I would say on the buildable part of '24, we're still working through obviously our plan for next year, so I don't want to give the guidance there. We are working to also increase throughput there. So exiting Q4, we'll get a better sense on what we're going to do from a throughput as well as a ramp perspective.

是的，我認為這是對的，這就是前進的錨。因此，我們將看到由此產生的勢頭。我想說的是，關於 24 年的可建造部分，我們顯然仍在製定明年的計劃，所以我不想在那裡提供指導。我們正在努力提高那裡的吞吐量。因此，在第四季度結束後，我們將從吞吐量和斜坡的角度更好地了解我們將要做什麼。

We still have ramp opportunities and majority of our businesses to get back their historical highs. We are seeing labor, more quality labor come in as well as have implemented gain share programs that have been effective in increasing throughput here. So we continue to pull some levers to increase throughput. So I would hold off to say what's ultimately going to be buildable in '24.

我們仍然有增長機會，我們的大多數業務都可以恢復歷史高點。我們看到勞動力、更多優質勞動力的湧入，並實施了收益分享計劃，這些計劃有效地提高了這裡的吞吐量。因此，我們繼續採取一些措施來提高吞吐量。所以我暫且不談 24 年最終會建造什麼。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mark Skonieczny for closing comments.

（操作員說明） 目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回馬克·斯科涅茨尼 (Mark Skonieczny) 以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, operator. Again, I would like to thank everyone again for joining us on today's call. As I said in my prepared remarks, we are encouraged by the progress demonstrated over the past several quarters, and we'll continue to execute localized plans to improve upon this performance as we exit fiscal '23 and into the next year. I look forward to providing an update in December. Thank you again.

謝謝你，接線員。我要再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們對過去幾個季度所取得的進展感到鼓舞，並且在我們結束 23 財年並進入明年時，我們將繼續執行本地化計劃以改善這一業績。我期待在 12 月提供更新。再次感謝你。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your launch at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您此時可以斷開啟動，我們感謝您的參與。