REV Group Inc (REVG) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the REV Group Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call.

您好，歡迎參加 REV 集團 2019 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Drew Konop, Investor Relations for the REV Group.

現在我想將會議交給主持人 REV 集團投資者關係部門的 Drew Konop 先生。

Thank you, you may begin.

謝謝，你可以開始了。

Thanks, Melissa.

謝謝，梅麗莎。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

Last night, we issued our second quarter 2019 results.

昨晚，我們發布了 2019 年第二季業績。

A copy of the release is available at our website at investors.revgroup.com.

新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 Investors.revgroup.com 上取得。

Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call.

今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

It is also available on our website.

它也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation.

現在請參閱該簡報的幻燈片 2。

Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

我們的評論和回答將包括《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC last night and other filings we make with the SEC.

這些風險包括我們昨晚向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中所述的事項。

We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些前瞻性陳述可能要到我們下一次季度財報電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。

All references on this call to a quarter or a year refer to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議中所有提及的季度或年度均指我們的財務季度或財政年度。

Joining me on the call today are our President and CEO, Tim Sullivan; as well as our CFO, Dean Nolden.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tim Sullivan；以及我們的財務長 Dean Nolden。

I will now turn the call over to Tim, and for those following along with the presentation, we'll start on Slide 3.

我現在將把電話轉給蒂姆，對於那些跟隨演示的人，我們將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Tim?

提姆？

Thanks, Drew.

謝謝，德魯。

Welcome to the team, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call.

歡迎加入我們的團隊，感謝大家加入我們今天的電話會議。

The first half performance of 2019 fiscal year was generally in line with our expectations.

2019財年上半年業績整體符合我們預期。

I'm encouraged to see the strategic actions we took in 2018 to reduce costs, improve product pricing, and operational processes and efficiencies have all translated into organic top line growth and better margins.

我很高興看到我們在 2018 年為降低成本、提高產品定價、營運流程和效率而採取的策略行動全部轉化為有機營收成長和更高的利潤率。

While we still have work to do, it is encouraging to see we are not only on track to meet our fiscal year expectations, but we have continued to see our backlog grow.

雖然我們仍有工作要做，但令人鼓舞的是，我們不僅有望實現本財年的預期，而且積壓訂單繼續增長。

We have 4 primary positive drivers of our business in the quarter.

本季我們的業務有 4 個主要積極推動因素。

First, we had top line growth and better sales mix in both our Commercial and Recreation segments.

首先，我們在商業和娛樂領域實現了營收成長和更好的銷售組合。

Second, end-market demand remain strong in both F&E and Commercial segments, where we saw double-digit growth in backlog compared to the end of fiscal 2018.

其次，F&E 和商業領域的終端市場需求依然強勁，與 2018 財年末相比，我們看到積壓訂單出現兩位數成長。

Third, and I would call your attention to Slide 4, very important slide.

第三，我想請大家注意投影片 4，這是非常重要的投影片。

I am pleased to say our material lead times have returned to historical levels.

我很高興地說我們的材料交貨時間已恢復到歷史水平。

And our supply chain has stabilized.

我們的供應鏈已經穩定。

Lastly, our focus on improving efficiency of cash used in operating activities was lower both year-over-year and sequentially.

最後，我們對提高經營活動現金使用效率的關注度較去年同期均有所下降。

In terms of the issues that partially offset our performance in the quarter, we had 2 primary challenges.

就部分抵銷我們本季業績的問題而言，我們面臨兩個主要挑戰。

We experienced several inefficiencies during the second quarter as we continue to ramp our production capacity in Fire Apparatus to stay aligned with strong end-market demand.

第二季度，我們不斷提高消防設備的生產能力，以滿足強勁的終端市場需求，因此出現了一些效率低下的情況。

Secondly, the RV market, and particularly, the Class A market remained soft and detracted from an otherwise strong shipping quarter in our Recreation segment.

其次，房車市場，特別是 A 級市場仍然疲軟，削弱了我們休閒細分市場原本強勁的運輸季度的表現。

I'll talk more about these challenges as we -- and what we're doing to mitigate them shortly.

我將更多地討論這些挑戰，以及我們正在採取哪些措施來緩解這些挑戰。

Moving to Slide 5, you'll see the positive backlog trends we experienced year-over-year related to strong Commercial and F&E end markets, which helped us maintain and grow very healthy backlog levels.

轉到投影片 5，您將看到我們逐年經歷的與強勁的商業和餐飲終端市場相關的積極的積壓趨勢，這幫助我們保持和增長了非常健康的積壓水平。

Our strong backlog supports the financial guidance we provided you earlier in the year with the only exception being an adjustment to our GAAP net income assumptions.

我們強大的積壓訂單支持了我們今年早些時候向您提供的財務指導，唯一的例外是對我們的 GAAP 淨利潤假設的調整。

Dean will walk you through our guidance detail in a few minutes.

Dean 將在幾分鐘內引導您完成我們的指導細節。

In addition, given our confidence in our business plan in end markets, we opportunistically repurchased over 495,000 shares of our common stock for a total consideration of $5.3 million in the quarter.

此外，鑑於我們對終端市場業務計劃的信心，我們在本季趁機回購了超過 495,000 股普通股，總代價為 530 萬美元。

Moving to Slide 6. As we announced last week, we were awarded a new 5-year contract with the Fire Department of New York City for approximately 400 type 1 Wheeled Coach ambulances.

轉到幻燈片 6。

The contract is estimated to be approximately $160 million over the 5 years, and we expect to start shipping units by mid-fiscal 2020.

該合約預計在 5 年內價值約 1.6 億美元，我們預計將在 2020 財年中期開始出貨。

This order demonstrates our strengths and competitive position in the market and the strong relationships we have with our customers.

該訂單證明了我們在市場中的優勢和競爭地位以及我們與客戶之間的牢固關係。

As you can see on this slide, this new order came after the quarter close, and therefore, is a additive to the backlog figures we have presented today.

正如您在這張投影片中看到的，這個新訂單是在季度結束後發出的，因此是我們今天提供的積壓訂單資料的補充。

Turning to Slide 7, I'll provide a few high-level comments on our operating segments.

轉向幻燈片 7，我將對我們的營運部門提供一些高級評論。

First, in our F&E segment as already stated, we continue to ramp our Fire Apparatus operations to meet our growing backlog in the fire apparatus market.

首先，如前所述，在我們的 F&E 部門，我們繼續擴大我們的消防設備業務，以滿足消防設備市場不斷增長的積壓需求。

We are making significant adjustments to our manufacturing footprint and processes to allow us to ship more units.

我們正在對我們的製造足跡和流程進行重大調整，以便我們能夠運送更多的設備。

We're also adding a second shift to 2 of our 3 plants.

我們還為 3 家工廠中的 2 家增加了第二班。

It is relatively easy and quickly to reduce plant capacity, but is much more difficult to increase capacity, which requires more floor space, tighter production planning, additional equipment and more trained people.

減少工廠產能相對容易且快速，但增加產能則困難得多，這需要更多的佔地面積、更嚴格的生產計劃、額外的設備和更多訓練有素的人員。

We are steadily increasing our outputs on a weekly basis, but we don't anticipate that we will reach our planned fire truck production cadence until the end of our fiscal year in October.

我們每週都在穩步增加產量，但我們預計要到 10 月的財政年度結束才能達到計劃的消防車生產節奏。

In our Commercial segment, transit bus deliveries for the L.A. County contract began to ship as expected, and we also benefited from our deliveries of the New York City Transit Authority contract during the quarter.

在我們的商業部門，洛杉磯縣合約的公車巴士交付開始按預期發貨，我們也受益於本季度紐約市交通管理局合約的交付。

The L.A. County order and the strength of our bus backlog should position us well in this segment for the remainder of the year.

洛杉磯縣的訂單和我們的公車積壓量將使我們在今年剩餘時間內在這一領域處於有利地位。

Additionally, a product mix shift towards school and transit bus has also helped us to drive top line growth.

此外，產品組合向學校和公車巴士的轉變也幫助我們推動了收入成長。

Lastly, order growth in most of the product categories has translated into double-digit backlog growth versus the start of the year in this segment, and therefore, we expect the strong performance in Commercial to continue.

最後，與年初相比，大多數產品類別的訂單成長已轉化為兩位數的積壓成長，因此，我們預期商業領域的強勁表現將持續下去。

In Recreation, we were able to achieve organic top line growth despite the softening of the overall RV market from peak levels.

在休閒領域，儘管整個房車市場較高峰水平有所疲軟，但我們仍實現了有機營收成長。

We believe the outlook for our Class B, Super C and Towable brands remain solid for the remainder of this year as we continue to work off some historical backlogs in these 3 categories, which helped us overcome a softer market for Class A RV products.

我們相信，隨著我們繼續處理這3 個類別的歷史積壓訂單，我們的B 級、Super C 級和牽引式品牌的前景在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定，這幫助我們克服了A 級房車產品市場疲軟的局面。

It should be noted, however, that based on our strategic decision to reposition our Class A product line, we have also achieved higher profitability with these products.

但值得注意的是，基於我們重新定位 A 類產品線的策略決策，我們也透過這些產品實現了更高的獲利能力。

We believe that our current portfolio of products has us well positioned to continue to capture share in the higher end product categories we serve.

我們相信，我們目前的產品組合使我們能夠繼續在我們所服務的高端產品類別中佔據份額。

Over the long term, we believe that our focus on new product innovation, attractive features and improved price points should enable us to outperform the industry.

從長遠來看，我們相信，我們對新產品創新、有吸引力的功能和改進的價格點的關注應該使我們能夠超越行業。

To conclude, I remain confident in our ability to return to growth and achieve increased profitability.

總而言之，我對我們恢復成長和提高獲利能力的能力仍然充滿信心。

Second quarter results were in line with our expectations for the most part, and our view of end-market demand and macro conditions remains consistent.

第二季業績基本上符合我們的預期，我們對終端市場需求和宏觀狀況的看法也保持一致。

Our excellent collection of brands and products makes us the industry leader in essential needs products for commercial and municipal government customers.

我們優秀的品牌和產品系列使我們成為商業和市政府客戶必需需求產品的行業領導者。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dean for a detailed review of our financials.

現在我將把電話轉給迪恩，詳細審查我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning.

謝謝蒂姆，早安。

I will start on Slide 8 with a review of our consolidated second quarter results followed by the performance of each segment.

我將從幻燈片 8 開始回顧我們的第二季度綜合業績，然後是每個部門的業績。

Consolidated net sales for the second quarter were $615 million versus $609 million in last year's second quarter, which is a 1% organic growth over the prior year.

第二季綜合淨銷售額為 6.15 億美元，去年第二季為 6.09 億美元，有機成長 1%。

The increase in consolidated net sales was driven by top line growth in Commercial and Recreation segments, partially offset by lower net sales in the Fire & Emergency segment.

綜合淨銷售額的成長是由商業和娛樂部門的營收成長所推動的，但部分被消防和緊急部門淨銷售額的下降所抵消。

Net income for the quarter was $5.6 million or $0.09 per fully diluted share compared to net income of $7.4 million or $0.11 per fully diluted share in the second quarter last year.

本季淨利潤為 560 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.09 美元，而去年第二季淨利為 740 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.11 美元。

Adjusted net income in the quarter was $15.2 million or $0.24 per diluted share and was roughly flat compared to adjusted net income and diluted per share results in the prior year period.

本季調整後淨利為 1,520 萬美元，或稀釋後每股 0.24 美元，與上年同期調整後淨利和稀釋後每股業績大致持平。

Adjusted EBITDA was $36.1 million in the quarter compared to $34 million in the prior year second quarter.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3,610 萬美元，而去年第二季為 3,400 萬美元。

This 6% increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to growth and improved earnings in the Commercial and Recreation segments, partially offset by a decrease in earnings in the Fire & Emergency segment.

綜合調整後 EBITDA 成長 6%，主要是由於商業和娛樂部門的成長和獲利改善，但部分被消防和緊急部門的獲利下降所抵消。

We drove a 30 basis point improvement in our adjusted EBITDA margin year-over-year, which came in at 5.9% for the quarter.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增了 30 個基點，本季為 5.9%。

Please turn to Slide 9 to discuss the performance of our segments.

請參閱投影片 9 來討論我們各細分市場的表現。

Fire & Emergency segment sales decreased by 1.9% to $247 million for the quarter.

本季消防和緊急部門銷售額下降 1.9%，至 2.47 億美元。

While ambulance sales were flat, a decrease in deliveries of fire trucks drove the top line decline as we experienced challenges in ramping up production levels to react to strong end-market demand.

雖然救護車銷量持平，但消防車交付量的減少導致收入下降，因為我們在提高生產水平以應對強勁的終端市場需求方面遇到了挑戰。

As we added additional shifts and brought on new employees at 2 of our fire production facilities in the quarter, we completed and shipped fewer units than we initially expected.

由於本季度我們在兩個消防生產設施中增加了班次並聘用了新員工，因此我們完成和發貨的設備數量少於我們最初的預期。

However, our backlog is firm, and we plan to continue to ramp up our production capacity in cadence such that our fire businesses would continue to increase their output as the year progresses.

然而，我們的積壓訂單很穩固，我們計劃繼續有節奏地提高產能，以便我們的消防業務能夠隨著時間的推移繼續增加產量。

F&E segment adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $15.1 million compared to $21.8 million in the second quarter of last year.

F&E 部門本季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,510 萬美元，而去年第二季為 2,180 萬美元。

This decrease in adjusted EBITDA compared to prior year period was due to the decrease in fire truck deliveries caused by inefficiencies as we ramped up production and the residual impact of material and supply chain issues on labor productivity at 1 ambulance facility.

與去年同期相比，調整後EBITDA 下降的原因是，由於我們提高產量，導致消防車交付量減少，而且材料和供應鏈問題對1 個救護車設施的勞動生產率產生了殘餘影響，導致效率低下。

Our operations team has been focused on and continues to work with these specific facilities to increase output in the case of fire trucks and to improve flow and productivity at each facility.

我們的營運團隊一直專注並繼續與這些特定設施合作，以增加消防車的產量，並提高每個設施的流量和生產力。

We are already experiencing improvements each week, and we expect to benefit from these initiatives in the second half of the year, which should set us up well for 2020.

我們已經每週都在經歷改進，我們預計將在下半年從這些措施中受益，這將為我們 2020 年奠定良好的基礎。

Backlog in the F&E segment increased 11% to $787 million compared to $708 million at the end of fiscal 2018, and was up 7% sequentially.

與 2018 財年末的 7.08 億美元相比，F&E 領域的積壓訂單增加了 11%，達到 7.87 億美元，季增了 7%。

While our progress towards increased output has been slower than anticipated and impacted the backlog level at the end of Q2, the backlog growth was in excess of our shipment deferrals, and therefore, is encouraging as we look into 2020.

雖然我們在增加產量方面的進展慢於預期，並影響了第二季度末的積壓水平，但積壓的增長超過了我們的發貨延期，因此，當我們展望2020 年時，這是令人鼓舞的。

We expect our efforts to improve production throughput will drive return to sales growth in the second half of the year.

我們預計，我們提高產量的努力將推動下半年銷售恢復成長。

We expect profit margins for this segment to improve sequentially, consistent with volume growth, but due to the time required to complete the ramp up of our fire production, we expect margin expansion in F&E year-over-year will be realized in Q4.

我們預計該部門的利潤率將連續改善，與銷售成長一致，但由於完成火力生產所需的時間，我們預計 F&E 的利潤率將在第四季度實現同比增長。

Moving to our Commercial segment.

轉向我們的商業部門。

Quarterly sales of $170 million were up 8% compared to the prior year period driven by an increase in bus sales as well as terminal trucks.

由於客車和碼頭卡車銷量的成長，季度銷售額較上年同期成長 8%，達 1.7 億美元。

This was partially offset by the sale of our mobility van business late last year.

去年年底出售我們的行動貨車業務部分抵消了這一影響。

The increase in bus sales was primarily due to the commencement of our previously announced transit bus contract with L.A. County and the continued deliveries of the paratransit bus contract with New York City Transit.

巴士銷售的成長主要是由於我們先前宣布的與洛杉磯縣的公車巴士合約的開始以及與紐約市交通局的輔助公車巴士合約的持續交付。

The increase in terminal truck sales reflects strong end markets and growth of our dealer channel for this business.

終端卡車銷售的成長反映了終端市場的強勁以及我們該業務經銷商通路的成長。

Commercial segment adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased 54% to $14.7 million from $9.5 million in the second quarter last year driven by strong sales of higher margin school and transit buses as well as terminal trucks.

由於利潤率較高的校車和公車以及碼頭卡車的強勁銷售，本季商業部門調整後的 EBITDA 從去年第二季的 950 萬美元成長 54% 至 1,470 萬美元。

Product mix in addition to higher volumes and the impact of recent operational improvement initiatives, drove adjusted EBITDA margin 260 basis points higher year-over-year to 8.6%.

除了銷售增加和近期營運改善措施的影響外，產品組合也推動調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 260 個基點，達到 8.6%。

The Commercial segment experienced increased demand across nearly all product categories in the quarter as well.

本季度，商業領域幾乎所有產品類別的需求也都出現成長。

Commercial backlog was up over 14% to $436 million compared to $381 million at the end of fiscal 2018 and was up 2% sequentially.

與 2018 財年末的 3.81 億美元相比，商業積壓訂單增加了 14% 以上，達到 4.36 億美元，季增了 2%。

As we look forward to the rest of the year, we continue to forecast a strong year within the Commercial segment with year-over-year improvements in sales and earnings expected to continue through the third and fourth quarters.

在展望今年剩餘時間時，我們繼續預測商業領域將迎來強勁的一年，預計第三和第四季的銷售和獲利將持續年增。

In addition, we are optimistic regarding continued strength of our transit bus business into 2020, given the inbound order rates and existing backlog that is already scheduled to be delivered next year.

此外，考慮到入庫訂單率和已計劃於明年交付的現有積壓訂單，我們對 2020 年公車巴士業務的持續強勁表現持樂觀態度。

Lastly, in our Recreation segment, quarterly sales grew 1% year-over-year to $200 million, primarily due to increases in sales across the majority of the company's RV brand lineup, partially offset by a decrease in sales of Class A motorhomes.

最後，在我們的休閒業務領域，季度銷售額年增 1%，達到 2 億美元，這主要是由於該公司大部分房車品牌陣容的銷售額增長，但部分被 A 級房車銷售額的下降所抵消。

Recreation adjusted EBITDA increased 36% for the quarter to $17.3 million.

本季娛樂調整後 EBITDA 成長 36%，達到 1,730 萬美元。

The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year period was primarily due to higher volumes in the more profitable Class B and Super C product categories and improved profitability in the total product line.

與去年同期相比，調整後 EBITDA 的成長主要是由於利潤更高的 B 類和 Super C 產品類別銷售增加以及整個產品線獲利能力的提高。

Recreation backlog was $169 million compared to $290 million at the end of fiscal 2018.

娛樂積壓金額為 1.69 億美元，而 2018 財政年度結束時為 2.9 億美元。

The decrease in backlog is due to softer demand in certain RV end markets, but relatively in line with our expectations as Class A demand is softening from previous peak levels.

積壓訂單的減少是由於某些房車終端市場的需求疲軟，但相對符合我們的預期，因為 A 級需求較之前的峰值水平有所疲軟。

Despite this end market softness, we continue to believe our leadership in the higher end and certain niche products within the recreation market should enable us to outperform the industry over the long term.

儘管終端市場疲軟，但我們仍然相信，我們在高端和娛樂市場中某些利基產品的領導地位將使我們能夠長期跑贏產業。

We also expect our remaining backlogs in Super Cs, Class Bs and Towables will allow us to continue to outperform the industry this year.

我們也預計，我們在 Super C、B 級和可拖車方面剩餘的積壓訂單將使我們今年能夠繼續跑贏行業。

Having said that, we don't expect that the second half of the current year for Recreation segment will be as strong versus its prior comparables as it has been year-to-date as incoming order rates have been lagging shipments in some categories.

話雖如此，我們預計今年下半年娛樂業務的表現不會像年初至今那樣強勁，因為某些類別的新訂單率一直落後於出貨量。

The second quarter for REV Group included both ups and downs versus our original expectations, which altogether resulted in a consolidated performance for the quarter that was for the most part in line with expectations, but we could have done better, and we will do better.

REV 集團第二季度的表現與我們最初的預期相比有起有落，這總體導致本季度的綜合業績大部分符合預期，但我們可以做得更好，我們也會做得更好。

As seen in the results of our F&E segment for Q2, although our F&E sales were relatively flat with the prior year, they could have been higher without the operating efficiencies and we underperformed our potential when it came to our F&E adjusted EBITDA results in dollars and in margin.

從我們第二季的F&E 部門的業績中可以看出，儘管我們的F&E 銷售額與上一年相對持平，但如果沒有營運效率，銷售額可能會更高，而且當我們的F&E 調整後EBITDA 業績以美元和在保證金中。

The issues in F&E during the quarter are isolated.

本季 F&E 的問題是孤立的。

They are known, and the remedies are underway and within our control.

它們是已知的，補救措施正在進行中並且在我們的控制範圍內。

We fully expect to improve in the second half of this year, and most importantly, set us up well for continued growth in 2020.

我們完全預計今年下半年會有所改善，最重要的是，這為我們在 2020 年的持續成長奠定了良好的基礎。

Turning to Slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

We show our capital allocation over the last 5 quarters.

我們展示了過去 5 個季度的資本配置。

Capital expenditures were $3.1 million in the second quarter compared to $10 million in the second quarter of 2018.

第二季的資本支出為 310 萬美元，而 2018 年第二季的資本支出為 1,000 萬美元。

We also continue to repurchase our stock in the quarter, albeit at a lower amounts than in prior quarters.

我們還在本季繼續回購股票，儘管數量低於前幾季。

We repurchased 495,000 shares in the quarter at a total cost of $5.3 million averaging $10.70 per share.

本季我們回購了 495,000 股股票，總成本為 530 萬美元，平均每股價格為 10.70 美元。

Taking a step back, I'd like to talk about our capital allocation priorities in the short and the long term.

退後一步，我想談談我們的短期和長期資本配置優先事項。

We will always look to maintain a long-term balanced approach to capital allocation.

我們將始終尋求保持長期平衡的資本配置方式。

And over the last few quarters, we've made a conscious effort to focus on our organic sales growth and improving our operational performance.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們有意識地努力專注於我們的有機銷售成長和改善我們的營運績效。

As our performance continues to improve, we plan to invest both organically and opportunistically in M&A.

隨著我們績效的不斷改善，我們計劃在併購方面進行有機投資和機會主義投資。

We have also seen opportunity in our stock price and plan to take advantage of our repurchase authorization during the third quarter if the opportunity presents itself.

我們也看到了股價的機會，如果機會出現，我們計劃在第三季利用我們的回購授權。

We have about $41 million of authorization remaining under our share repurchase program, and we will remain opportunistic, but measured, in our repurchase activities.

我們的股票回購計畫還剩下約 4,100 萬美元的授權，我們將在回購活動中保持機會主義，但謹慎行事。

Our capital allocation and shareholder return plans require a strong balance sheet.

我們的資本配置和股東回報計畫需要強大的資產負債表。

Net debt as of April 30, 2019, was $462 million.

截至 2019 年 4 月 30 日，淨債務為 4.62 億美元。

During the quarter, in order to improve our current liquidity, we increased the borrowings under our term loan facility from $125 million to $175 million and used the proceeds to repay borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

本季度，為了改善我們目前的流動性，我們將定期貸款安排下的借款從 1.25 億美元增加到 1.75 億美元，並用所得款項償還循環信貸安排下的借款。

Our net leverage ratio at the end of April 2019 was 3.2x compared to 3.3x at the end of the first quarter.

截至 2019 年 4 月末，我們的淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍，而第一季末為 3.3 倍。

As we stated last quarter, this metric should improve significantly going forward for the remainder of the year as we move into the strongest portion of our year and expect both the numerator and the denominator in the leverage calculation to improve.

正如我們上季度所說，隨著我們進入今年最強勁的時期，這一指標在今年剩餘時間內應該會顯著改善，並預計槓桿計算中的分子和分母都會改善。

We continue to expect to reduce our leverage by more than 1 full turn by the end of this fiscal year versus the prior year-end to under 2x.

我們仍然預計，到本財年末，我們的槓桿率將比上一財年末降低 1 倍以上，降至 2 倍以下。

As we mentioned last quarter, we expected to see an increase in the net working capital in the second quarter.

正如我們上季度提到的，我們預計第二季淨營運資本將增加。

The increase in working capital was primarily due to the seasonal increase in inventory.

營運資金的增加主要是由於庫存的季節性增加。

However, at the end of the quarter, we did experience higher inventory levels in F&E due to the ramp up of production and the inefficiencies we referenced earlier in our commentary.

然而，在本季末，由於產量的增加以及我們先前在評論中提到的效率低下，我們的餐飲業庫存水準確實較高。

We expect this is a short-term impact and improving working capital turns continue to be a very important area of focus throughout 2019 and beyond.

我們預計這只是短期影響，改善營運資金周轉率仍將是 2019 年及以後的一個非常重要的關注領域。

In addition, we have seen $17 million of cash flow benefits year-to-date from our nonoperating cash flow initiatives that we expect will total more than $40 million for the full fiscal year.

此外，今年迄今為止，我們的非經營性現金流計畫帶來了 1,700 萬美元的現金流效益，預計整個財年的現金流總額將超過 4,000 萬美元。

On Slide 11, we have our full year guidance metrics for 2019.

在投影片 11 上，我們列出了 2019 年全年指引指標。

With the majority of our year ahead of us in terms of sales and earnings, we are reaffirming our prior full year guidance for fiscal year 2019 revenues of between $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, adjusted net income of $66 million to $84 million, adjusted EBITDA of $150 million to $170 million, net cash provided by operating activities of $110 million to $130 million, and capital expenditures of $25 million to $30 million.

鑑於我們今年的大部分時間都在銷售和盈利方面，我們重申先前對2019 財年全年收入的指導為24 億美元至26 億美元，調整後淨利潤為6600 萬美元至8400 萬美元，調整後EBITDA 為1.5億至1.7億美元，經營活動提供的淨現金為1.1億至1.3億美元，資本支出為2500萬至3000萬美元。

Purely based on actual results through the first half of fiscal 2019 in the areas of stock compensation and certain legal settlements, we are adjusting our guidance for GAAP net income for the full year to be in the range of $31 million to $51 million.

純粹基於 2019 財年上半年在股票補償和某些法律和解方面的實際結果，我們正在將全年 GAAP 淨利潤指引調整為 3,100 萬美元至 5,100 萬美元。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tim for some closing comments.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給提姆，徵求一些結束語。

Thanks, Dean.

謝謝，迪恩。

I'll close with Slide 12.

我將以投影片 12 結束。

I think the headline for this quarter is that we believe that many of our headwinds are behind us, and we are well positioned for improved performance in the second half of the year.

我認為本季的主要內容是，我們相信許多不利因素已經過去，我們已做好準備，可以在今年下半年改善業績。

Let me list a few of the reasons and the key points why we think this is possible.

讓我列出一些我們認為這是可能的原因和關鍵點。

First and foremost, the actions we took in 2018 to better position the business are working.

首先，我們在 2018 年為更好地定位業務而採取的行動正在發揮作用。

Secondly, the new tariff situation that most recently emerged remains generally outside of our business.

其次，最近出現的新關稅情況總體上仍不屬於我們的業務範圍。

And we believe we are prepared for any issues that should arise, and we expect the supply chain issues and material availability that have plagued us for over one year now are behind us.

我們相信，我們已經為可能出現的任何問題做好了準備，我們預計困擾我們一年多的供應鏈問題和材料供應問題現在已經成為過去。

Third, the stickiness of our backlog is driven by the high level of customization of our products, coupled with the fundamental demand across most of our end markets.

第三，我們的積壓訂單的黏性是由我們產品的高度客製化以及大多數終端市場的基本需求所驅動的。

And last, we remain fully focused on the things within our control, like driving overall profitable growth, improving our working capital turns and driving meaningful free cash flow.

最後，我們仍然完全專注於我們控制範圍內的事情，例如推動整體利潤成長、改善我們的營運資本週轉率以及推動有意義的自由現金流。

Therefore, we continue to believe that fiscal 2019 we'll see improved revenue growth, margin expansion and improved returns on capital.

因此，我們仍然相信，2019 財年我們將看到收入成長、利潤率擴大和資本回報率提高。

And everyone here at REV Group remains focused on delivering on those goals.

REV 集團的每個人都將繼續專注於實現這些目標。

With that, we'll turn the call over to questions.

這樣，我們將把通話轉為提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

This is Ben Burud on for Jerry.

我是本布魯德 (Ben Burud) 替傑瑞 (Jerry) 發言。

Within Fire & Emergency, so ambulance revenues were flat year-over-year in the quarter.

在消防和緊急情況下，本季救護車收入較去年同期持平。

Can you just kind of give us an update on where you think we stand in the ambulance demand cycle?

您能否向我們介紹一下您認為我們在救護車需求週期中所處的最新情況？

And in addition, can you kind of give us the puts and takes for the balance of '19 in ambulance, specifically, touching on the deferred shipments from last year that were, I think you mentioned, going to impact some of 2Q, but also mainly 3Q, 4Q?

此外，您能否向我們介紹 19 年救護車餘額的情況，特別是去年推遲的發貨，我想您提到過，這將影響第二季度的一些情況，但也主要是3Q、4Q？

Well, we went into, I think this fiscal year, with probably a little smaller backlog than is normal for us in ambulance, and that affected to some extent our Q1 and to a lesser extent Q2.

好吧，我認為本財年，我們的救護車積壓量可能比正常情況要少一些，這在一定程度上影響了我們的第一季度，在較小程度上影響了第二季度。

But our backlogs are really back to, what I would call, a more normal level, so we feel strongly about the fact that we can finish the year strong with ambulance.

但我們的積壓確實回到了我所說的更正常的水平，所以我們對我們可以通過救護車強勁地結束這一年這一事實感到強烈。

Ambulance is somewhat episodic, it depends on timing from municipalities in particular on how they spend their money, and these things do have an ebb and flow to them, but we're very positive on the remainder of this year and as we move forward with the backlog that we do have.

救護車有點偶發性，這取決於市政當局的時間安排，特別是他們如何花錢，這些事情確實有潮起潮落，但我們對今年剩餘時間非常樂觀，隨著我們繼續推進我們確實有積壓的訂單。

And any comment on the movement of the deferred shipments from fiscal '18 into -- I just wanted to make sure if there was any impact in 2Q that we capture that and I know a good amount was supposed to be captured 3Q, 4Q, if I remember correctly?

對 18 財年推遲發貨的任何評論 - 我只是想確定我們捕捉到的第二季度是否有任何影響，我知道應該在第三季度、第四季度捕捉到大量的影響，如果我沒記錯吧？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

This is Dean.

這是迪恩。

And -- yes, we experienced a little bit of that in Q2, but the most of the deferrals and the catch-up will be in Q3.

是的，我們在第二季經歷了一些這樣的情況，但大部分的延遲和追趕將在第三季進行。

And in addition to what Tim offered, we announced previously that we had a fairly large order for FDNY that kind of bridged the gap between their old contract and the new contract of 76 units, and that's going to be starting to ship here in the second half of the year, so it'll help.

除了蒂姆提供的之外，我們之前還宣布，我們向FDNY 訂購了一份相當大的訂單，這彌補了他們舊合約和新合約76 件之間的差距，並將在第二季度開始在這裡出貨。

Yes.

是的。

And take a good look at Slide 4. Slide 4 really shows you the delay that we had in things like chassis and material.

仔細看看幻燈片 4。

That really has pushed some of those delayed shipments further into the back half of fiscal '19, and we're in clear catch-up mode now.

這確實將一些延遲的發貨進一步推遲到了 19 財年的後半段，而我們現在正處於明顯的追趕模式。

Understood.

明白了。

And then from a higher level, just curious if internally have you taken a stab at attempting to adjust for all the headwinds you faced over the last 12 months?

然後從更高的層面來看，只是好奇您在內部是否嘗試過調整以應對過去 12 個月中面臨的所有逆風？

And maybe arrive at what your normalized EBITDA margins would have been, mainly asking in the context of where you think you are on that long-term journey to a 10% EBITDA margin target?

也許可以得出您的標準化 EBITDA 利潤率是多少，主要是在您認為您在實現 10% EBITDA 利潤率目標的長期過程中處於什麼位置？

Yes.

是的。

I think obviously, we took a bit of a hit as we moved through the back half of fiscal '18, primarily with the material cost increases, but we're back where literally we were effectively a year ago before all that happened.

我認為顯然，當我們進入 18 財年後半段時，我們受到了一些打擊，主要是材料成本的增加，但我們實際上已經回到了一年前所有這一切發生之前的水平。

So we're well into recovery mode on margins.

因此，我們已經進入了利潤恢復模式。

We saw margin improvement in this quarter and that will continue through 3 and 4. Now that we've got our price increases out there to take -- basically absorb some of the cost increases that we did have.

我們在本季度看到了利潤率的提高，而這種情況將持續到第三季和第四季。

We're actually in very good shape from a margin standpoint in most of our product lines; the ones that they have struggled in the past, we're still working on those, but we are making progress across the board on that journey towards 10% across the board.

事實上，從我們大多數產品線的利潤角度來看，我們的狀況非常好。他們過去一直在努力解決那些問題，我們仍在努力解決這些問題，但我們正在全面取得進展，朝著全面實現 10% 的目標邁進。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Jamie Cook。

This is actually Themis on for Jamie.

這其實是忒彌斯為傑米準備的。

I was wondering if we could switch gears a bit and talk about Recreation.

我想知道我們是否可以換個話題，談談娛樂。

On the backlog weakness, you noted softer Class A market, which does make sense.

關於積壓疲軟，您注意到 A 級市場疲軟，這確實有道理。

I was wondering if you have a sense of backlog performance on a year-over-year basis excluding the A's?

我想知道您是否了解除 A 之外的逐年積壓績效？

Yes.

是的。

The market has softened up across the board in all aspects.

市場各方面都全面走軟。

I think if you look at the reports from the first quarter of calendar '19, virtually every category was off as far as retail sales.

我認為，如果你看一下 19 年第一季的報告，幾乎每個類別的零售額都出現了下滑。

We have really strong backlogs in the 3 areas that we highlighted.

我們在我們強調的 3 個領域確實積壓了大量訂單。

But we have -- we are beginning to work those backlogs down.

但我們已經開始減少積壓的工作。

Having said that, we still have several weeks if not months of backlog in the 3 key areas beyond the Class A.

話雖如此，在 A 級以外的 3 個關鍵領域，我們仍然有數週甚至數月的積壓。

Understood.

明白了。

And then maybe on the margin side, could you help us with your margin assumptions in the back half of the year, given what sounds to be like a weaker top line?

然後，也許在利潤方面，考慮到營收似乎較弱，您能否幫助我們了解下半年的利潤假設？

Margins will improve as we move through Q3, Q4.

隨著第三季、第四季的到來，利潤率將會提高。

Again, it's catching up with the price increases that we put in place to absorb the cost increases on material that we got the third and fourth quarter of last year, so margins will be improving.

再次，它趕上了我們為吸收去年第三和第四季度材料成本上漲而採取的價格上漲，因此利潤率將會提高。

And specifically, if you're referencing the Recreation segment, I think the second half, in my commentary for Recreation, won't be as strong of a year-over-year comp for Recreation as it was year-to-date, just because of the reduction in some of the incoming order rates and the impact there, but overall improvement for the company.

具體來說，如果您指的是娛樂部分，我認為下半年，在我對娛樂的評論中，娛樂的同比比較不會像今年迄今為止那樣強勁，只是由於部分接單率的降低而存在影響，但對公司整體而言有所改善。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自安迪凱西與富國銀行的關係。

This is actually Patrick Wu filling in for Andy Casey.

這其實是吳帕特里克·吳（Patrick Wu）代替安迪·凱西（Andy Casey）。

Just wanted to get a good sense of how your backlog churn rate is right now versus how it was historically?

只是想好好了解您現在的積壓訂單流失率與歷史情況相比如何？

And I guess if you can provide some color on each of the segment that would be helpful.

我想如果你能為每個部分提供一些顏色，那將會很有幫助。

Are there drastic differences between the segments in terms of the churn rate?

各細分市場之間的客戶流失率是否有巨大差異？

The backlog is up over history primarily due to the fact that we have not lost any backlog due to cancellations and everything got delayed because of material shortages and the chassis shortages.

積壓訂單數量超過歷史記錄，主要是因為我們沒有因取消訂單而損失任何積壓訂單，而且由於材料短缺和底盤短缺，一切都被推遲了。

So if we compare where we're at right now to history, we're well above historical backlog levels.

因此，如果我們將現在的情況與歷史進行比較，我們將遠高於歷史積壓水平。

Well, I guess I'm just more interested in how quickly you guys are churning your backlog now versus before?

好吧，我想我只是對你們現在處理積壓訂單的速度比以前更感興趣？

I would imagine it's slightly slower given some of the inefficiencies.

考慮到一些低效率，我想它會稍微慢一點。

No, just the opposite.

不，恰恰相反。

It's actually accelerating now that we have material available and chassis available.

現在我們有了可用的材料和可用的底盤，它實際上正在加速。

The only area where our churn of backlog is not where we want it to be is in our fire segment and that's because we're in the throes of doing a major expansion at all 3 plants to meet the increased demand that we've got in the marketplace.

我們的積壓量沒有達到我們想要的程度的唯一領域是我們的消防部門，這是因為我們正在對所有 3 個工廠進行大規模擴建，以滿足我們不斷增長的需求。

But as far as churning through backlog, it's accelerating as we move through the back half of the year.

但就積壓訂單而言，隨著下半年的到來，它正在加速。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

It also looks like on one of your slides, the lead times for pumps has climbed a little bit.

在您的一張投影片上，泵浦的交貨時間也似乎有所增加。

I guess just what kind of actions are you guys taking there to ensure that it doesn't delay, I guess some of your shipments in the second half?

我猜你們在那裡採取了什麼樣的行動來確保它不會延遲，我猜你們下半年的一些發貨？

And did you add any inventory in that category here in the first couple of quarters to ensure no future unexpected disruptions from that?

您是否在前幾個季度在此類別中添加了任何庫存，以確保未來不會出現意外中斷？

Yes.

是的。

When we have something like that, that happens, we do a couple things.

當我們遇到類似的事情時，我們會做幾件事。

First of all, we obviously try to build some inventory around that particular product.

首先，我們顯然嘗試圍繞該特定產品建立一些庫存。

Secondarily, we explore alternatives to make sure that we're recovering our basis to the best we can, which is what we did as we moved through last year.

其次，我們探索替代方案，以確保我們盡最大努力恢復我們的基礎，這就是我們去年所做的。

So we can pretty well mitigate those types of things and that one's not hurting us too bad right now, but it's certainly in our watch list.

因此，我們可以很好地減輕這些類型的事情，而且這些事情現在對我們的傷害並不太嚴重，但它肯定在我們的觀察名單中。

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的查德·迪拉德。

So just a question for you guys on dealer inventory levels on RV side.

所以想問你們一個關於房車方面經銷商庫存水準的問題。

Can you just talk about where you expect them to be exiting the year?

您能談談您預計他們今年的表現嗎？

And then also your plans to produce relative to the retail demand.

然後還有您相對於零售需求的生產計劃。

Yes.

是的。

I think the retails are moving down.

我認為零售業正在下降。

I mean there is sales happening, but the dealers really aren't replenishing to the levels historically that they have in the past primarily due to the softening in the retail market.

我的意思是，確實有銷售，但經銷商的補貨確實沒有達到歷史水平，這主要是由於零售市場的疲軟。

So everything's going to slow down.

所以一切都會慢下來。

The good news is, is that we have some good backlogs in 3 of our 4 classes of RV.

好消息是，我們 4 類 RV 中的 3 類有一些良好的積壓訂單。

We continue to ship on those backlogs.

我們將繼續運送這些積壓訂單。

But the market has softened.

但市場已經疲軟。

Retails are down which means that wholesale orders will also go down commensurate with those retails.

零售量下降，這意味著批發訂單也將與零售量相應下降。

And then switching over to Fire & Emergency, you mentioned there is $160 million award announcement.

然後轉到消防與緊急情況，您提到有 1.6 億美元的獎勵公告。

Just trying to understand what the cadence is between, I guess -- I believe, there is a, I guess, 5-year order period or delivery period.

我想，只是想了解節奏，我想，我相信，有一個 5 年的訂單期或交付期。

Just want to understand like what the cadence was on that?

只是想了解節奏是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Those are important orders and that's the reason why we actually put press releases out.

這些都是重要的命令，這就是我們實際上發布新聞稿的原因。

That order will be about 80 to 90 ambulances a year for the City of New York over the next 5 years.

該訂單將在未來 5 年內為紐約市每年提供約 80 至 90 輛救護車。

And that's important because that gives our plants a nice baseload.

這很重要，因為這為我們的工廠提供了良好的基本負載。

Same thing with L.A. County.

洛杉磯縣也是如此。

We announced that one because that's been a great baseload for us beginning here in the second quarter.

我們宣布這項計劃是因為從第二季開始，這對我們來說是一個很好的基本負載。

Those baseloads just really help us from an efficiency standpoint, so they're critically important, that's why we do announce them.

從效率的角度來看，這些基本負載確實對我們有幫助，因此它們至關重要，這就是我們宣布它們的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Robert W. Baird 的對話。

This is Peter Ziel on for Mig Dobre.

我是彼得·齊爾 (Peter Ziel)，代表米格·多布雷 (Mig Dobre) 發言。

I was wondering on Fire & Emergency backlog.

我想知道消防和緊急情況積壓的情況。

Hello?

你好？

Yes.

是的。

We're here.

我們到了。

We could hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

Oh sorry.

哦，對不起。

I did not know.

我不知道。

So the backlog there is relative to if we look at fiscal '18 and fiscal '17, and just kind of how we're thinking about this second half sales, it's quite a bit higher than past years, and obviously some of that is due to the inefficiencies that you've mentioned.

因此，如果我們看看 18 財年和 17 財年，積壓的訂單量是相對的，就像我們如何看待下半年的銷售一樣，它比過去幾年要高很多，顯然其中一些是由於你提到的低效率問題。

So I'm just curious, if you guys have an idea of, I guess, in relative terms what's kind of the good backlog build from the end user demand growth versus what part of that is coming from the inefficiencies and the inability that convert on backlog?

所以我很好奇，我想，你們是否知道，相對而言，最終用戶需求增長所帶來的良好積壓，以及其中的哪一部分來自於低效率和無能力轉化？

Yes.

是的。

Let me answer the first part first and -- because you have to really take them separately.

讓我先回答第一部分——因為你必須真正分開對待它們。

Ambulance, as I talked to the other question kind of ebbs and flows but it's steady, it's been a very steady market for us here, quite frankly, after pent-up demand was addressed here over the last couple of years.

救護車，正如我談到的另一個問題，雖然有起有落，但很穩定，坦白說，在過去幾年解決了被壓抑的需求之後，這對我們來說是一個非常穩定的市場。

The mix kind of changes around a little bit, but as you recall, 60% of ambulance business is contractors, 40% are municipalities, but it's good, it's steady and very reliable backlog.

混合情況略有變化，但正如您所記得的，60% 的救護車業務是承包商，40% 是市政當局，但這很好，積壓的訂單穩定且非常可靠。

What we're seeing in fire is different.

我們在火中看到的東西是不同的。

The demand in fire is increasing.

對火災的需求正在增加。

If you recall, we have not really been at historical levels for demand on Fire Apparatus for the last 3 or 4 years.

如果你還記得的話，在過去的三、四年裡，我們對消防設備的需求並沒有真正達到歷史水準。

We're lagging probably the last average 15- to 20-year demand.

我們可能落後於最近 15 至 20 年的平均需求。

We're seeing that now and that's why we're expanding our plants, that's why our lead times are out significantly, and this is across the board in the industry all the people that makes Fire Apparatus have very long lead times right now because demand is up.

我們現在看到了這一點，這就是為什麼我們要擴大我們的工廠，這就是為什麼我們的交貨時間顯著延長，這是整個行業所有製造消防設備的人現在都有很長的交貨時間，因為需求起來了。

And it wasn't -- we anticipated that, we just didn't know how it was going to come and when it was going to come, but demand is up and that's why we're making some investments in our plants to increase demand.

事實並非如此——我們預料到了這一點，我們只是不知道它將如何到來以及何時到來，但需求增加了，這就是為什麼我們要對我們的工廠進行一些投資以增加需求。

As we make those investments and as we grow our plant capability, we are able to maintain shipment levels that are -- to plan, but they will be increasing over time just because the demand is up.

當我們進行這些投資並提高工廠產能時，我們能夠維持計劃中的發貨水平，但隨著時間的推移，由於需求的增加，發貨水平將會增加。

Okay.

好的。

And then a follow up.

然後進行跟進。

Shifting to Recreation, and I think one of the prior questions kind of touched on this into Dean's comment on some of the softening in 2H given the backlog in orders, but still outperforming the industry, that leaves a pretty wide gap just given that, if I look at like the last 9 months, you guys have been relatively flat versus the industry being down around 20%.

轉向娛樂，我認為之前的問題之一有點觸及迪恩對 2H 的一些疲軟的評論，因為訂單積壓，但仍然優於行業，這留下了相當大的差距，因為如果我認為過去9 個月，你們的表現相對平穩，而產業下降了20% 左右。

So even in some order of magnitude, can you give us some indication of what kind of decline you would expect relative to mid-teens, 20% declines we're seeing for the industry and also shipping?

因此，即使是某種數量級，您能否告訴我們，相對於我們看到的行業和航運業下降 20% 的情況，您預計會出現什麼樣的下降？

Yes.

是的。

We actually -- as you correctly said, we're effectively outperforming some of our competitors and that's primarily due to what we do sell.

事實上，正如您所說，我們的表現實際上優於一些競爭對手，這主要歸功於我們所銷售的產品。

The products that we sell tend to be on the high end and they tend to be a little nichey so to speak.

我們銷售的產品往往是高端產品，可以說它們往往有點小眾。

And we believe that as we move forward through the market even as the market is softening, we expect to be outperforming the general market from that standpoint.

我們相信，即使市場正在疲軟，但隨著我們在市場中前進，從這個角度來看，我們預計將跑贏整體市場。

And then -- go ahead.

然後——繼續吧。

Yes.

是的。

If you look at the forecast of the market to be down double digits in 2019 versus prior years, will be -- hopefully, we think will be flat to low-single digits for us down year-over-year because of the strong backlogs.

如果你預測 2019 年市場將比前幾年下降兩位數，那麼我們認為，由於大量積壓，我們預計同比下降將持平至低個位數。

Yes.

是的。

A's are going to be challenged, A's are not just performing at the level that any of us expected.

A 將會受到挑戰，A 的表現不僅達到我們所期望的水平。

But again we like how we're positioned.

但我們再次喜歡我們的定位。

We've positioned our product line to the high end and it's the more profitable end of the Class A or B market.

我們將我們的產品線定位於高端，這是 A 類或 B 類市場利潤較高的一端。

So in summary, you've got it correct, the market softened, but we're weathering the storm, I think better than most.

總而言之，你說得對，市場走軟，但我們正在渡過難關，我認為比大多數人好。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the pricing trends on some of your new backlog.

我想知道您是否可以談談您的一些新積壓訂單的定價趨勢。

Is it implying better profitability out -- further out than where you are now?

這是否意味著你的獲利能力會比現在更遠？

Yes, for sure.

是的，當然。

We reacted strongly to the cost increases that we got last year, and not knowing how we would be affected as we move through Q3, Q4, and then in Q1, we stayed well ahead of any potential cost increases that we would get on material.

我們對去年的成本增加反應強烈，不知道在第三季度、第四季度以及第一季度，我們將受到怎樣的影響，我們遠遠領先於材料上可能出現的任何潛在成本增加。

The good news is, is that the cost increases really slowed down quite a bit to the point that we're well ahead of those cost increases.

好消息是，成本成長確實大幅放緩，以至於我們遠遠領先成本成長。

So we like where we're at.

所以我們喜歡我們現在所處的位置。

We like where we're positioned on pricing as we move into Q3, Q4.

當我們進入第三季、第四季時，我們喜歡我們的定價定位。

Okay.

好的。

And Dean, do you have any free cash flow estimate for us for 2019?

Dean，您對我們 2019 年的自由現金流有什麼預估嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We gave some pieces but we've said between $110 million and $130 million of cash from operations, $25 million-ish of CapEx and about $40 million of other items that are -- we're generating nonoperating cash flow from, so between those 3 items that should be our free cash flow.

我們提供了一些信息，但我們說過來自運營的1.1 億至1.3 億美元的現金、大約2500 萬美元的資本支出以及大約4000 萬美元的其他項目——我們正在產生非運營現金流，所以在這3 項之間這些項目應該是我們的自由現金流。

Okay.

好的。

And I wonder if you can frame for us a little bit the run rate for 2020 for the fire business.

我想知道您是否可以為我們介紹一下 2020 年消防業務的運作。

I'm not asking for an official forecast, but just how do we think about the run rate once you fully ramp up?

我並不是要求官方預測，但我們如何看待全面啟動後的運行率？

Is it kind of 10% higher?

是不是高了10%？

Or is it -- can you just give us a little ballpark there?

或者是──可以給我們簡單介紹一下嗎？

Well, let me give it to you this way because that would kind of fall into more guidance.

好吧，讓我這樣給你，因為這會落入更多的指導。

But if you look at Fire Apparatus and you go back far enough, the run rate, the annual run rate was around 5,000 units a year.

但如果你看看消防設備，你會發現運行率，年運行率約為每年 5,000 台。

Last decade, it ballooned to 6,000 units per year because the municipalities were federally funded with funds that they'd never seen before as a result of 9/11.

過去十年，該數量激增至每年 6,000 套，因為各市政府在 9/11 事件中獲得了前所未有的聯邦政府資助。

That meant that as we rolled into this decade, we really fell down to a run rate just at 4,000 and slightly above 4,000.

這意味著，當我們進入這個十年時，我們的運行率實際上下降到了 4,000 且略高於 4,000。

We're seeing the market now starting to creep back towards that 5,000 level, and we're running more at a level of around 4,500 units.

我們看到市場現在開始回升至 5,000 單位的水平，並且我們正在以 4,500 單位左右的水平運行更多單位。

So you can kind of do the math, Joel, that's -- we've got to ramp to those percentages not just us, but across the industry, to meet the demand that we're seeing as we move into 2020.

所以你可以算一下，喬爾，我們不僅必須提高這些百分比，而且整個產業都必須提高這些百分比，以滿足進入 2020 年時我們所看到的需求。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I'll turn the floor back over to Mr. Sullivan for any final comments.

我將把發言權交還給沙利文先生，徵求最後的意見。

Well, thanks, again, for joining us.

好的，再次感謝您加入我們。

I guess -- I said the headline for Q1 was, we've seen the bottom.

我想 - 我說過第一季的標題是，我們已經看到了底部。

The headline for Q2 is, we're back on our feet and we're beginning to jog.

第二季的標題是，我們重新站起來，開始慢跑。

I guess the headline that we're trying to explain for Q3, Q4 is, now we're going into a run, and we're getting back to more normal levels of production and more normal levels in line with the guidance that we gave you earlier in the year.

我想我們試圖解釋第三季、第四季的標題是，現在我們正在進入運行階段，我們正在恢復到更正常的生產水平，並且根據我們給出的指導，更正常的水平今年早些時候的你。

So we feel good about the position that we're in.

所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。

We feel really happy about the fact that our lead times are back down to where they should be.

我們對交貨時間回到應有的水平感到非常高興。

And that should help us respond to the market and the demands that are strong and continue to work off our backlogs.

這應該有助於我們應對市場和強勁的需求，並繼續解決我們的積壓訂單。

Again, thanks for joining us.

再次感謝您加入我們。

We'll be talking to you again in the first week of September.

我們將在九月的第一周再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。