REV Group Inc (REVG) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the REV Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加 REV 集團 2018 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Sandy Bugbee, Vice President Treasurer and Investor Relations.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人桑迪·巴格比 (Sandy Bugbee)，他是財務兼投資者關係副總裁。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

Last night, we issued our fourth quarter 2018 results.

昨晚，我們發布了 2018 年第四季業績。

A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com.

新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 Investors.revgroup.com 上取得。

Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call.

今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

It is also available on our website.

它也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation.

現在請參閱該簡報的幻燈片 2。

Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

我們的評論和回答將包括《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC last night and other filings we make with the SEC.

這些風險包括我們昨晚向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中所述的事項。

We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may be updated until -- may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務，這些聲明可能會更新到——可能不會更新到我們的下一次季度收益電話會議（如果有的話）。

All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議中所有提及的季度或年度均指我們的財務季度或財政年度。

Joining me on the call today are our President and CEO, Tim Sullivan as well as our CFO, Dean Nolden.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Tim Sullivan 以及財務長 Dean Nolden。

I'll now turn the call over to Tim.

我現在將電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Sandy, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call.

謝謝桑迪，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

To say that fiscal 2018 was a challenge would be an understatement.

如果說 2018 財年是個挑戰，那是輕描淡寫的。

Quite frankly, anything that could go wrong, did go wrong and then some.

坦白說，任何可能出錯的事情都確實出錯了，而且還不止一些。

It was particularly frustrating since many of the issues were out of our control.

這尤其令人沮喪，因為許多問題超出了我們的控制範圍。

Detroit manufacturing shutting down for 3 weeks due to a fire at a key supplier was only one of the many highly unusual situations.

底特律製造業因主要供應商火災而停工三週，這只是眾多極不尋常的情況之一。

We responded as quickly as possible to everything that came our way, we reacted quickly to the dramatic supplier price increases in the second quarter and then supply chain and material availability challenges that continue into our first quarter of fiscal 2019.

我們對發生的一切都盡快做出了反應，我們對第二季度供應商價格的大幅上漲以及持續到 2019 財年第一季的供應鏈和材料可用性挑戰做出了快速反應。

Slide 4 of today's presentation depicts some details regarding the extended lead times of certain product groups, due to the compounding effect of the numerous tariffs as they were instituted.

今天簡報的幻燈片 4 描述了有關某些產品組的交貨時間延長的一些細節，這是由於徵收大量關稅的複合效應造成的。

You can't build what you don't have and you can't ship what you can't build.

你無法建造你沒有的東西，也無法交付你無法建造的東西。

We've had to continually adapt to the ever changing material lead times.

我們必須不斷適應不斷變化的材料交付週期。

Slide 4 also shows the challenges around chassis availability.

幻燈片 4 也展示了機箱可用性的挑戰。

As you can see only Ford has returned to what would be considered normal lead times.

正如您所看到的，只有福特恢復了正常的交貨時間。

We are effectively managing through allocations by some chassis suppliers, but delays in Mercedes Benz chassis in particular, will continue to a negatively impact our shipments in Q1 2019.

我們正在透過一些底盤供應商的分配進行有效管理，但特別是梅賽德斯奔馳底盤的延誤，將繼續對我們 2019 年第一季的出貨量產生負面影響。

We expect chassis availability to continue improving through the first half of fiscal year 2019, but other material availability issues are likely to persist.

我們預計底盤可用性將在 2019 財年上半年繼續改善，但其他材料可用性問題可能持續存在。

A significant amount of small parts that we use in our vehicles have historically been sourced from China.

我們車輛中使用的大量小零件歷來都來自中國。

The Trump tariffs set on 818 categories of goods imported from China has indirectly put pressure on our traditional U.S. suppliers who are being asked to substitute thousands of parts which have transitioned to China.

川普對818類從中國進口的商品徵收關稅，間接給我們傳統的美國供應商帶來了壓力，他們被要求替換數千種已轉向中國的零件。

As you can imagine, these challenges have been difficult to predict, and our average lead times have increased significantly on many products as a result.

正如您可以想像的那樣，這些挑戰很難預測，因此我們許多產品的平均交貨時間顯著增加。

We are exploring and -- opportunities to source products from new suppliers, and we're also implementing strategies to improve manufacturing output including additional shifts in some of our facilities and other improvements in manufacturing processes.

我們正在探索從新供應商購買產品的機會，我們也正在實施提高製造產量的策略，包括對我們的一些設施進行額外的調整以及製造流程的其他改進。

As a reminder, on last quarter's call, we had indicated that material and chassis issues have resulted in deferrals of approximately $120 million in revenue into 2019, split about evenly between ambulance, commercial buses and specialty vehicles.

提醒一下，在上個季度的電話會議上，我們曾表示，材料和底盤問題導致約 1.2 億美元的收入推遲到 2019 年，其中救護車、商用巴士和特種車輛各佔一半。

We experienced meaningful labor inefficiencies in our Fire segment during Q4 due to new hires, compensation adjustments, roster changes as well as changes in our overtime policies.

由於新員工、薪資調整、花名冊變化以及加班政策的變化，我們的消防部門在第四季度經歷了嚴重的勞動力效率低下。

Accordingly, approximately $40 million in fire truck shipments will move into fiscal 2019, bringing our total deferred shipments from 2018 to 2019 to approximately $160 million.

因此，約 4,000 萬美元的消防車出貨量將進入 2019 財年，使我們從 2018 年到 2019 年的延期發貨總額達到約 1.6 億美元。

I always say never squander a good crisis and this one has been no exception.

我總是說，永遠不要浪費一場好的危機，這次也不例外。

As our shipping performance slowed due to the lack of chassis and material, we were able to review our operations to find areas of waste and significantly reduce our corporate overhead expenses.

由於缺乏底盤和材料，我們的運輸業績放緩，我們能夠審查我們的運營，以找到浪費的區域，並顯著減少我們的公司管理費用。

This will make us a better company moving forward.

這將使我們成為一家向前發展的更好的公司。

During the fourth quarter, we experienced year-over-year backlog growth in each of our operating segments, including that the underlying demand for our products remains very strong.

在第四季度，我們每個營運部門的積壓訂單都較去年同期成長，包括對我們產品的潛在需求仍然非常強勁。

Moreover, we experienced no cancellations for any orders in our backlog, confirming the stickiness of our numerous customer relationships, which significantly improves our chances to affect meaningful recovery in fiscal 2019.

此外，我們的積壓訂單中沒有出現任何訂單被取消的情況，這證實了我們眾多客戶關係的黏性，這大大提高了我們在 2019 財年實現有意義復甦的機會。

Despite the ongoing challenges, we began to see improvements in the pace of delayed shipments through the end of fiscal 2018, and we expect supply chain and material availability challenges to begin normalizing during the first half of next year.

儘管挑戰持續存在，但到 2018 財年末，我們開始看到延遲出貨的速度有所改善，我們預計供應鏈和材料可用性挑戰將在明年上半年開始正常化。

In essence, we've adapted to the new normal, and we have learned to manage expectations and schedule our manufacturing accordingly.

從本質上講，我們已經適應了新常態，並學會了管理期望並相應地安排我們的製造。

We are optimistic that our ability to ship will improve progressively as we move through the year.

我們樂觀地認為，隨著這一年的推移，我們的運輸能力將逐步提高。

Slide 13 in our presentation provides guidance as to how we expect our shipments and therefore, our earnings to progress as we move through the year compared to how we performed in 2017 and 2018.

我們簡報中的幻燈片 13 提供了有關我們如何預期出貨量的指導，以及與 2017 年和 2018 年的表現相比，我們在這一年中的盈利增長情況。

As we head into the new year, we're focused on driving margin expansion within our Fire & Emergency segment through operating efficiencies, increased production capacity and continued organic growth.

進入新的一年，我們的重點是透過提高營運效率、提高產能和持續有機成長來推動消防和緊急部門的利潤擴張。

All of our fire brands have growing backlogs in both KME and for our improving margins, which should drive segment profitability higher long-term.

我們所有的消防品牌在 KME 和我們利潤率的提高中都有不斷增加的積壓，這應該會推動該部門的長期盈利能力更高。

In our Commercial segment, the LA County contract will serve as a strong base for our transit bus business beginning in 2019.

在我們的商業領域，洛杉磯縣合約將從 2019 年開始為我們的公車巴士業務奠定堅實的基礎。

Based on growing backlogs, we're also anticipating higher production and profitability per school bus, shuttle bus and terminal trucks as we progress through the year.

基於不斷增加的積壓訂單，我們也預計隨著今年的進展，每輛校車、班車和碼頭卡車的產量和獲利能力將會更高。

In recreation, our acquisitions of Lance, Renegade and Midwest all continued to perform very well with meaningful backlogs and the reposition of our Class A product line has been designed to help us reach our adjusted EBITDA margin target of 10%.

在娛樂領域，我們對 Lance、Renegade 和 Midwest 的收購均繼續表現出色，積壓量很大，而且 A 類產品線的重新定位旨在幫助我們實現 10% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率目標。

In addition to our focus on driving growth, we are placing a high priority on cash generation.

除了專注於推動成長之外，我們還高度重視現金產生。

We have revised our incentive compensation programs to align with this important objective.

我們修改了激勵薪酬計畫以實現這一重要目標。

As noted in yesterday's earnings release, we have identified a series of assets that we believe could generate approximately $40 million in cash through divestiture in the near- to medium-term time horizon, and we recorded a $36.5 million noncash impairment charge related to these actions to pave the way for this cash generation to occur.

正如昨天的財報中所指出的，我們已經確定了一系列資產，我們相信這些資產可以在中短期內透過剝離產生約4000 萬美元的現金，並且我們記錄了與這些行動相關的3650 萬美元的非現金減損費用為現金產生鋪平道路。

We have communicated several times that if we don't believe we can achieve a 10% EBITDA margin for a particular product line then we will take action.

我們已經多次溝通，如果我們不相信特定產品線能夠實現 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，那麼我們將採取行動。

That is the case with our Revability product line.

我們的 Revability 產品線就是這種情況。

We just signed a definitive agreement to sell our Revability product line yesterday.

昨天我們剛剛簽署了出售 Revability 產品線的最終協議。

We expect this transaction to close this week.

我們預計這筆交易將於本週完成。

We have many reasons to feel confident about our ability to return to growth in fiscal 2019, including the benefits of our recently implemented price increases, cost reductions, restructuring initiatives and managing to the new normal in our supply chain.

我們有許多理由對 2019 財年恢復成長的能力充滿信心，包括我們最近實施的漲價、成本降低、重組措施以及管理供應鏈新常態所帶來的好處。

We have an excellent collection of brands and products and our status as the industry leader in high-end luxury vehicles and critical products for commercial municipal government customers should enable us to create compelling long-term value for our shareholders.

我們擁有一系列優秀的品牌和產品，我們作為高端豪華汽車和商業市政府客戶關鍵產品的行業領導者的地位將使我們能夠為股東創造令人信服的長期價值。

Speaking of increasing shareholder value, REV group delivered approximately $66.1 million in direct returns to shareholders in 2018 through share repurchases and dividends.

說到增加股東價值，REV 集團在 2018 年透過股票回購和股息為股東帶來了約 6,610 萬美元的直接回報。

And we will remain committed to driving strong returns to shareholders in fiscal 2019 with a renewed focus on cash generation and return on invested capital.

我們將繼續致力於在 2019 財年為股東帶來強勁回報，重新關注現金產生和投資資本回報。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dean, for a detailed review of the financials.

現在我將把電話轉給迪恩，以詳細審查財務狀況。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning.

謝謝蒂姆，早安。

Starting with Slide 5, I will review our consolidated fourth quarter results and segment level performance.

從投影片 5 開始，我將回顧我們第四季的綜合業績和部門績效。

For the sake of time, I'll not specifically be addressing full year result on today's call, but we've provided full year slides for both consolidated and segment level performance in the Appendix of today's presentation.

由於時間關係，我不會在今天的電話會議上具體討論全年業績，但我們在今天簡報的附錄中提供了合併和部門層面業績的全年幻燈片。

As Tim discussed, during the fourth quarter, we continued to experience ongoing headwinds from the supply chain inefficiencies that were created in the wake of the recent implementation of tariffs between the U.S. and other countries.

正如提姆所討論的，在第四季度，我們繼續面臨因美國和其他國家最近實施關稅而造成的供應鏈效率低下所帶來的持續阻力。

And a number of other onetime impacts also contributed to lower year-over-year profitability.

其他一些一次性影響也導致獲利能力較去年同期下降。

Consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter were $660 million, down 3.5%, compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

第四季綜合淨銷售額為 6.6 億美元，較去年第四季下降 3.5%。

This decline was driven by lower Fire & Emergency segment sales due to missed shipments of both ambulances and fire products during the quarter, partially offset by sales growth in commercial and recreation segments.

這一下降是由於本季救護車和消防產品未能發貨而導致消防和緊急部門銷售額下降，但部分被商業和娛樂部門的銷售成長所抵消。

Excluding the benefit of the Lance acquisition in the quarter, consolidated net sales were 8.3% lower than the prior year period.

剔除 Lance 收購帶來的收益，本季綜合淨銷售額比去年同期下降 8.3%。

GAAP net loss for the quarter was $22 million or $0.35 per diluted share, which was driven lower due a one-time noncash impairment charge of $35.6 million that we recognized during the quarter.

本季 GAAP 淨虧損為 2,200 萬美元，或稀釋後每股 0.35 美元，由於我們在本季度確認了 3,560 萬美元的一次性非現金減損費用，淨虧損有所下降。

This charge was due to the adjustment of a net realizable value of certain businesses, product lines and assets to their estimated divestiture cash value as well as the impairment of certain information system assets.

此費用是由於將某些業務、產品線和資產的可變現淨值調整為其估計剝離現金價值以及某些資訊系統資產的減損所致。

Fourth quarter adjusted net income decreased from $29.3 million to $17.6 million or $0.28 per diluted share.

第四季調整後淨利從 2,930 萬美元減少至 1,760 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.28 美元。

This decrease in adjusted net income was driven by the lower operating results and higher interest expense.

調整後淨利的下降是由於經營業績下降和利息支出增加所致。

Starting on Page 6 of our slide deck.

從我們投影片的第 6 頁開始。

I'll move now to a review of the performance of each of our segments.

我現在將回顧我們每個部門的表現。

Fire & Emergency segment sales decreased by 21% to $251 million for the fourth quarter.

第四季消防與緊急部門銷售額下降 21%，至 2.51 億美元。

The primary drivers of this decline were first, the anticipated impacts of continued chassis supply challenges, resulting in lower shipments of ambulances, plus in addition, we experienced temporary labor inefficiencies at 2 of our Fire division plants, which caused us to miss valuable production slots for approximately 80 fire trucks representing approximately $40 million in sales value.

這種下降的主要驅動因素首先是底盤供應持續挑戰的預期影響，導致救護車出貨量減少，此外，我們的兩個消防部門工廠出現臨時勞動力效率低下，這導致我們錯過了寶貴的生產時間約80 輛消防車，銷售額約4,000 萬美元。

In our current environment, for the Fire division, where we have backlog extending out 1 year or more, when we miss the window of production opportunity like we did, we have to increase capacity and ramp up production going forward to catch up on deliveries or else the backlog in the revenue stream just shifts to the right.

在我們當前的環境下，對於消防部門來說，我們的積壓已超過一年或更長時間，當我們像以前一樣錯過生產機會時，我們必須增加產能並提高產量，以趕上交付或否則，收入流中的積壓就會向右移動。

In this case, we expect to recover most of our missed shipments in 2019 with new production slots and increased capacity.

在這種情況下，我們預計將透過新的生產位置和增加的產能來彌補 2019 年大部分錯過的出貨量。

The Fire division is increasing its production capacity through facilities and production floor improvements, but also most importantly through an increase in labor and in some cases the additional -- the addition of work shifts.

消防部門正在透過設施和生產車間的改進來提高其生產能力，但最重要的是透過增加勞動力，在某些情況下還透過增加輪班來提高生產能力。

Based on the schedule for the implementation of these

根據這些實施時間表

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

in the quarter, but was also impacted by the temporary and result of labor inefficiencies in the Fire division, which are estimated to have cost the segment approximately $6 million in production inefficiencies and direct project cost during the quarter.

但也受到消防部門暫時性的勞動力效率低下的影響，估計該部門在本季度因生產效率低下和直接項目成本而損失了約 600 萬美元。

These negative impacts were partially offset by lower selling, general and administrative expenses in the segment.

這些負面影響被該部門較低的銷售、一般和管理費用部分抵消。

F&E segment adjusted EBITDA margin was 500- basis points lower compared to prior year quarter as a result of these items.

由於這些項目的影響，F&E 部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率比去年同期下降了 500 個基點。

Despite the short-term challenges we are experiencing in this segment, we expect our leadership positions in F&E, our backlogs and strong distribution partnerships to support return to sales growth and margin expansion in fiscal 2019 and over the long-term.

儘管我們在這一領域面臨短期挑戰，但我們預計我們在餐飲和娛樂領域的領導地位、我們的積壓訂單和強大的分銷合作夥伴關係將支持 2019 財年及長期的銷售成長和利潤率擴張。

Both fire and ambulance markets are central products for municipalities and should continue experiencing the benefits of positive macro trends including urbanization and aging population.

消防和救護車市場都是市政當局的核心產品，應該繼續受益於城市化和人口老化等積極宏觀趨勢的好處。

Backlog in this segment increased 20% to $708 million, compared to the end of fiscal 2017, and was up 17% sequentially.

與 2017 財年末相比，該領域的積壓訂單增加了 20%，達到 7.08 億美元，季增了 17%。

As shown on Slide 7, in our Commercial segment, quarterly sales were up 3.4% compared to the prior year period, driven by an increase in the number of shuttle bus and specialty vehicle units sold compared to the prior year.

如投影片 7 所示，在我們的商業部門，由於穿梭巴士和特種車輛銷售數量與上年相比有所增加，季度銷售額比上年同期增長了 3.4%。

In addition, our Collins Subsidiary began to ship the first buses under its contract with New York in the quarter.

此外，我們的柯林斯子公司在本季開始根據與紐約的合約運送第一批巴士。

This quarter-over-quarter increase in sales for this segment was realized despite the ongoing chassis availability and material shortages experienced in the quarter by our shuttle bus and specialty divisions.

儘管我們的接駁車和專業部門在本季度經歷了持續的底盤可用性和材料短缺，但該細分市場的銷售額仍實現了環比增長。

Commercial adjusted EBITDA declined to $9.6 million from $14.8 million in the prior year quarter with the decrease primarily attributable to the continued supply chain challenges, which impacted timing of shipments and unfavorable product mix as a result of lower transit bus shipments and higher volumes of shuttle bus units.

商業調整後的 EBITDA 從去年同期的 1,480 萬美元下降至 960 萬美元，下降的主要原因是供應鏈持續面臨挑戰，運輸巴士運輸量減少和穿梭巴士數量增加，影響了運輸時間和不利的產品組合單位。

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.3% was down 300- basis points in the quarter as a result of these items.

由於這些項目的影響，本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 5.3%，下降了 300 個基點。

Commercial backlog at the end of the fourth quarter was up 4% to $381 million compared to the end of fiscal 2017 and was down 9% sequentially, which is seasonally consistent with prior years.

與 2017 財年末相比，第四季末的商業積壓訂單增加了 4%，達到 3.81 億美元，季減了 9%，與往年的季節性情況一致。

Despite ongoing complications of commercial chassis availability, we believe the fundamentals of our markets are solid.

儘管商用底盤的可用性持續存在複雜性，但我們相信我們市場的基本面是穩固的。

We are expecting much stronger performance in the commercial segment in 2019, given our backlog visibility and expected return to relative normalcy in the supply chains.

鑑於我們的積壓訂單可見度以及供應鏈預計恢復相對正常狀態，我們預計 2019 年商業領域的表現將更加強勁。

Specifically, we expect greater sales volumes of both transit buses and commercial school buses next year, which should provide a significant tailwind for both sales and profitability in this segment given their strong margin characteristics.

具體來說，我們預計明年公車和商業校車的銷量都會增加，鑑於其強勁的利潤特徵，這將為該細分市場的銷售和盈利能力提供重大推動力。

Turning to Slide 8. Our bright spot for the quarter was our Recreation segment.

轉向幻燈片 8。

Quarterly sales in Recreation segment grew 25% year-over-year to $235 million, driven by strong performance of our Class B and Class C products as well as the benefit of our acquisition of Lance.

由於 B 類和 C 類產品的強勁表現以及收購 Lance 的收益，娛樂部門的季度銷售額同比增長 25% 至 2.35 億美元。

Even excluding the impact of Lance, Recreation segment net sales increased by $14 million or 7% compared to the prior year period.

即使排除 Lance 的影響，休閒部門的淨銷售額也比去年同期成長了 1,400 萬美元，即 7%。

Recreation adjusted EBITDA increased 51% for the quarter to $21.8 million.

本季娛樂調整後 EBITDA 成長 51%，達到 2,180 萬美元。

The increase was due to continued increases in profitability in our Class B, Class C and Goldshield businesses in addition to the dollar and margin benefit from the acquisition of Lance.

這一增長是由於我們 B 類、C 類和 Goldshield 業務盈利能力的持續增長，以及收購 Lance 帶來的美元和利潤率收益。

On an organic basis, excluding Lance, recreation adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter increased 15% and 60- basis points compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017.

在有機基礎上，不包括蘭斯，第四季度娛樂業調整後的 EBITDA 比 2017 財年第四季度增長了 15%，增長了 60 個基點。

Segment backlog increased 100% to $291 million versus the end of fiscal 2017, and was up 15% sequentially compared to the third quarter.

與 2017 財年末相比，該部門的積壓訂單增加了 100%，達到 2.91 億美元，與第三季相比，季增了 15%。

We believe our leadership position in the high-end luxury channels of the recreation market should enable us to outperform the industry longer term, and we've also been encouraged with supportive feedback from customers regarding our recent efforts to realign our Class A product.

我們相信，我們在休閒市場高端奢侈品管道中的領導地位應該使我們能夠長期跑贏行業，而且我們也受到客戶對我們最近重新調整 A 級產品的努力的支持性反饋的鼓舞。

We believe our distribution channel is healthy with capacity for additional units, and we feel confident about this business heading into the next buying season, early next calendar year.

我們相信我們的分銷管道是健康的，有能力增加額外的單位，我們對這項業務進入下一個購買季節（明年初）充滿信心。

Now please turn to Slide 9, where we've provided a bridge from midpoint of last quarter's fiscal year 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance to our actual performance.

現在請轉到投影片 9，我們在其中提供了從 2018 財年上季度中點調整後 EBITDA 指導到我們實際業績的橋樑。

You can see based on this waterfall chart that the issue of the temporary labor inefficiencies in Fire, which caused production cost inefficiencies and missed production slots were the largest impacts to us in the quarter and were obviously not anticipated or expected as we guided towards our full year expectation.

根據此瀑布圖，您可以看到，火災中臨時勞動力效率低下的問題導致了生產成本效率低下和錯過了生產時段，這是本季度對我們影響最大的問題，顯然是沒有預料到的，因為我們指導我們全面實施年的期望。

Nothing can be viewed in a vacuum but absent this issue, which is behind us, we would have realized a full year adjusted EBITDA result much closer to our original expectations.

任何事情都不能在真空中看待，但如果沒有這個問題，我們本可以實現全年調整後的 EBITDA 結果更接近我們最初的預期。

Our RV acquisitions over the past few years continue to pay dividends and provide lift in our profitability whereas the material and chassis supply chain challenges continue to impact our businesses through fiscal year and into the first quarter of fiscal 2019.

過去幾年我們的房車收購繼續帶來股息並提高我們的盈利能力，而材料和底盤供應鏈挑戰繼續影響我們整個財年和 2019 財年第一季的業務。

Slide 10 provides a review of recent trends in working capital.

投影片 10 回顧了營運資本的最新趨勢。

As we expected, we saw a seasonal sequential decrease in net working capital in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the decrease in inventory levels from the normal seasonal high we experienced during the third quarter.

正如我們預期的那樣，第四季度淨營運資本出現季節性環比下降，主要是由於庫存水準較第三季正常季節性高點有所下降。

But this working capital reduction was not as significant as in prior years.

但營運資本減少幅度並不像前幾年那麼大。

The increase in working capital versus the prior year quarter was partially due to the acquisition of Lance, but more significantly was due to the indirect impact on work-in-process inventory from the chassis availability and the extension of material lead times.

與去年同期相比，營運資本的增加部分是由於收購了 Lance，但更重要的是由於底盤可用性和材料交貨時間的延長對在製品庫存的間接影響。

Improving working capital and inventory turns will be an important area of focus for us next year.

改善營運資金和庫存週轉率將是我們明年關注的重要領域。

And due to specific initiatives in our operations as well as the improvement in our supply chain efficiencies, we are forecasting that we will generate cash from working capital in fiscal 2019, and we will make progress toward a more meaningful long-term opportunity to permanently reduce working capital requirements over the next few years.

由於我們營運中的具體舉措以及供應鏈效率的提高，我們預計我們將在 2019 財年從營運資金中產生現金，並且我們將朝著更有意義的長期機會取得進展，以永久減少未來幾年的營運資金需求。

We expect this will generate meaningful amount of debt reduction and even better liquidity.

我們預計這將產生大量的債務削減和更好的流動性。

Net debt at October 31, 2018 was $410 million with $137 million of availability under our ABL revolving credit facility.

截至 2018 年 10 月 31 日，淨債務為 4.1 億美元，我們的 ABL 循環信貸額度下的可用金額為 1.37 億美元。

Our net leverage ratio at the end of the fiscal year 2018, was 2.8x.

截至 2018 財年末，我們的淨槓桿率為 2.8 倍。

This increase in debt year-over-year was a result of our working capital position at the end of the year, as I previously discussed, but also because of our acquisition of Lance and capital expenditure investments plus our buyback of $53 million worth of our own stock during fiscal 2019.

正如我之前所討論的，債務同比增加是我們年底營運資本狀況的結果，但也是因為我們收購了 Lance 和資本支出投資，加上我們回購了價值 5300 萬美元的公司資產。 。

As Tim mentioned earlier -- and we are laser-focused on this -- we expect to improve the strength of our balance sheet over the coming year not only by cash from operations but also by generating cash through specific initiatives including the divestitures of certain businesses, product lines or other nonperforming assets, which have now classified as held-for-sale and have an active program to monetize during fiscal 2019, wherein we expect to generate approximately $40 million of additional cash for debt reduction.

正如蒂姆之前提到的，我們非常關注這一點，我們預計未來一年不僅可以透過營運產生現金，還可以透過包括剝離某些業務在內的具體舉措來產生現金，從而提高我們的資產負債表實力。債務。

We recorded a $36 million noncash impairment charge partially to adjust for the fair value of these assets during the fourth quarter as we implement our liquidation plans.

我們記錄了 3,600 萬美元的非現金減損費用，部分是為了在第四季度實施清算計畫時調整這些資產的公允價值。

We expect to use cash proceeds to reduce debt.

我們預計將使用現金收益來減少債務。

But we should note that given expectations for continued supply chain challenges in the business during the first quarter of fiscal '19, we anticipate an increase in our leverage ratio through the end of the first quarter.

但我們應該注意到，鑑於對 19 財年第一季供應鏈業務持續面臨挑戰的預期，我們預計到第一季末我們的槓桿率將會上升。

We have historically said that we would prefer to stay below 2.5x leverage, but we feel comfortable being above that level at present and into the first quarter given the transitory impact of the supply chain inefficiencies we're experiencing, and we expect to reduce leverage by more than 1 full turn by the end of fiscal 2019.

我們歷來表示，我們希望槓桿率保持在 2.5 倍以下，但考慮到我們正在經歷的供應鏈效率低下的暫時影響，我們對目前和第一季高於該水平感到滿意，並且我們預計會降低槓桿率到2019 財年底，成長超過1 個整週。

On Slide 11 we show our capital allocation over the last 5 quarters.

在投影片 11 中，我們展示了過去 5 個季度的資本配置。

Capital expenditures were $8.7 million in the fourth quarter compared to $4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2017.

第四季的資本支出為 870 萬美元，而 2017 年第四季的資本支出為 410 萬美元。

Company repurchased a total of 519,000 of its common shares for $7.8 million during the fourth quarter at an average repurchase price of $14.96 a share.

該公司在第四季以 780 萬美元回購了總計 519,000 股普通股，平均回購價格為每股 14.96 美元。

As Tim mentioned, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares during fiscal 2018 for total consideration of $53 million representing an average purchase price of $16.47 per share.

正如提姆所提到的，我們在 2018 財年回購了約 320 萬股股票，總代價為 5,300 萬美元，平均購買價格為每股 16.47 美元。

In addition to shares repurchased, we distributed $12.8 million to shareholders in the form of dividends bringing total cash returned in fiscal 2018 to approximately $66 million.

除了回購股票外，我們還以股息的形式向股東分配了 1,280 萬美元，使 2018 財年的現金返還總額達到約 6,600 萬美元。

Now turn the slide -- please turn to Slide 12 for a review of our outlook fiscal 2019.

現在轉動幻燈片——請轉到幻燈片 12，回顧我們對 2019 財年的展望。

We are estimating net sales for fiscal 2019 in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion representing a 5% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

我們預計 2019 財年的淨銷售額將在 24 億美元至 26 億美元之間，年比中位數成長 5%。

Net income is estimated to be $43 million to $63 million representing a significant increase year-over-year due to the impairment and restructuring done in fiscal 2018.

由於 2018 財年進行的減損和重組，淨利潤預計為 4,300 萬至 6,300 萬美元，年比大幅成長。

We anticipate adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $150 million to $170 million representing an 8% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元之間，中間值年增 8%。

We're planning on $25 million to $30 million in capital expenditures and net cash from operations of $110 million to $130 million.

我們計劃資本支出為 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元，營運淨現金為 1.1 億至 1.3 億美元。

This guidance for cash from operations is new for REV and is a testament to our focus and commitment to improving cash generation.

這本營運現金指南對於 REV 來說是新的，證明了我們對改善現金產生的關注和承諾。

Cash and cash generation is now a component of our management incentive plan for fiscal 2019.

現金和現金產生現已成為我們 2019 財政年度管理層激勵計劃的一部分。

And this forecast represents an increase of over $120 million of cash from operations compared to the fiscal 2018.

與 2018 財年相比，這項預測意味著營運現金增加超過 1.2 億美元。

Our forecast for interest expense is estimated to be in the range of $29 million to $31 million due to the impact of floating rate increases.

由於浮動利率上漲的影響，我們預計利息支出將在 2,900 萬美元至 3,100 萬美元之間。

And our effective tax rate should settle into a post-tax reform range of 25% to 27%.

我們的有效稅率應該落在稅改後25%至27%的範圍內。

Implied in the totality of our guidance for fiscal 2019, is also a meaningful improvement in our return on invested capital metric.

我們 2019 財年的整體指引也暗示了我們的投資資本報酬率指標的有意義的改善。

Absent the impacts of any potential future acquisition activity, we are targeting approximately $100 million in debt reduction during fiscal 2019, which would reduce our leverage ratio, as I said earlier, by 1 turn by year-end.

如果沒有任何潛在的未來收購活動的影響，我們的目標是在 2019 財年減少約 1 億美元的債務，這將在年底前將我們的槓桿率降低 1 倍，正如我之前所說。

We expect the strength of our financial performance to be weighted towards the back half of the fiscal year in-line with historical trends.

我們預期我們的財務業績實力將在本財年後半段體現，與歷史趨勢一致。

And given the ongoing challenges we expect to persist in the first quarter, we expect lower Q1 performance in 2019 as compared to the prior year quarter.

鑑於我們預計第一季將持續面臨的挑戰，我們預計 2019 年第一季的業績將低於去年同期。

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't recognize and mention the fact that REV Group completed year one of its Sarbanes–Oxley compliance journey in fiscal 2018.

最後，如果我沒有認識到並提及 REV Group 在 2018 財年完成了《薩班斯-奧克斯利法案》合規之旅的第一年這一事實，那就是我的失職。

And as you can see in our Form 10-Q -- 10-K filed yesterday afternoon, REV received a clean opinion on internal controls from our independent public accounting firm for the year.

正如您在昨天下午提交的 10-Q - 10-K 表格中看到的那樣，REV 收到了我們獨立公共會計師事務所今年關於內部控制的明確意見。

This was no small challenge or accomplishment for our younger public company.

對我們年輕的上市公司來說，這既是不小的挑戰，也是不小的成就。

This was not just a success with regard to compliance, but much more importantly, it is essential to becoming a stronger company by integrating strong internal controls and oversight over our businesses as we grow.

這不僅是合規方面的成功，更重要的是，隨著我們的發展，透過整合強大的內部控制和對業務的監督來成為更強大的公司至關重要。

This makes us better as a company, and we're thankful to our teams for their dedication and commitment to our success in this area.

這使我們作為一家公司變得更好，我們感謝我們的團隊為我們在這一領域取得成功所做的奉獻和承諾。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tim for some closing comments.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給提姆，徵求一些結束語。

Thanks, Dean.

謝謝，迪恩。

In closing, while fiscal 2018 was challenging, fundamental demand across our end-markets remain strong.

最後，雖然 2018 財年充滿挑戰，但我們終端市場的基本需求仍然強勁。

Most of our product lines are continuing to show a high level of order activity and we have many reasons to believe that we've entered fiscal 2019 poised for improved revenue growth and margins.

我們的大多數產品線繼續表現出高水準的訂單活動，我們有很多理由相信，我們已經進入 2019 財年，為收入成長和利潤率的提高做好了準備。

Our supply chain challenges are being effectively managed, and hopefully many of the short-term issues will soon be behind us.

我們的供應鏈挑戰正在有效管理，希望許多短期問題很快就會過去。

We will have the full benefit of price increases and restructuring initiatives implemented in 2018 as we progress to 2019.

進入 2019 年，我們將充分受益於 2018 年實施的價格上漲和重組措施。

We have a growing backlog, a leaner product portfolio and improving productivity and manufacturing efficiency, and we expect to generate a meaningful level of cash in fiscal 2019.

我們的積壓訂單不斷增加，產品組合更加精簡，生產力和製造效率不斷提高，我們預計 2019 財年將產生可觀的現金水準。

We are very grateful for the continued dedication and support of our employees, customers, partners and shareholders, and we're looking forward to a successful year together in fiscal 2019.

我們非常感謝員工、客戶、合作夥伴和股東的持續奉獻和支持，並期待 2019 財年共同成功。

Operator, we'd now like to open it up to questions.

接線員，我們現在想提出問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook）。

I guess a couple of questions on the outlook for 2019.

我想問幾個關於 2019 年前景的問題。

First, just given the backlog growth that you've had and the deferral of revenues from '18 to '19, I would've thought your top-line growth would've been higher.

首先，考慮到您的積壓增長以及從 18 年到 19 年的收入延期，我以為您的營收成長會更高。

So can you talk to how much of it is being impacted by sort of the supplier issues that you guys spoke about or your own internal issues?

那麼，您能談談您們談到的供應商問題或您自己的內部問題對其中的影響有多大嗎？

And then my next question, I would've also thought that EBITDA guide would've been better as I think of '19 versus '18.

然後我的下一個問題是，我也認為 EBITDA 指南會更好，因為我認為 19 年與 18 年相比。

So can you talk us through the big puts-and-takes?

那麼您能向我們介紹一下重大的進出交易嗎？

How much we're assuming for savings, price costs, what the disposal of the $40 million?

我們假設可以節省多少成本、價格成本，以及如何處置這 4,000 萬美元？

How much that impacts the EBITDA as well as labor efficiencies or mix, if you could just help us through that?

如果您能幫助我們解決這個問題，這會對 EBITDA 以及勞動力效率或組合產生多大影響？

Yes.

是的。

But let me address at least the perspective on how we set guidance, Jamie.

但讓我至少談談我們如何制定指導的觀點，傑米。

I think clearly, we were surprised by our lack of performance in the fourth quarter based on the fact that we couldn't get the chassis, we couldn't get the material.

我認為顯然，我們對第四季度表現不佳感到驚訝，因為我們無法獲得底盤，無法獲得材料。

So as I made the statement in my comments, we're trying to measure expectations to make sure that we can manage through the situation we're in.

因此，當我在評論中發表聲明時，我們正在努力衡量期望，以確保我們能夠應對當前的情況。

I think we understand very well now the lead times that we're dealing with, chassis availability.

我認為我們現在非常了解我們正在處理的交貨時間和底盤可用性。

But we also don't want to be surprised.

但我們也不想感到驚訝。

So our projection is somewhat conservative.

所以我們的預測有些保守。

I think they're realistic based on the modeling that we've done for both the revenue and earnings.

我認為根據我們對收入和收益所做的建模，它們是現實的。

And Dean, you may want to comment on the $40 million?

Dean，你可能想對這 4000 萬美元發表評論嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So from the standpoint of the deferrals or delays or missed production slots, primarily missed production slots would in the Fire division.

因此，從延遲或延誤或錯過生產時段的角度來看，主要錯過的生產時段是消防部門。

As Tim said, that was $160 million in revenue pushed into 2019.

正如提姆所說，2019 年的收入為 1.6 億美元。

$40 million of that is Fire, and we don't expect to be able to start recouping that $40 million, 80 or so trucks until into the second quarter or at the end of the second quarter.

其中 4000 萬美元是消防費用，我們預計要到第二季或第二季末才能開始收回這 4000 萬美元、80 輛左右的卡車。

And the key there is, we have a full backlog and full capacity with 1 shift primarily.

關鍵是，我們有充足的積壓和滿載的生產能力，主要是 1 班制。

And in order to start to catch up on that delay, we need to add capacity, and we're in process of doing that now at our facilities so that we can start to catch up on those trucks in the second quarter of 2019 and going forward.

為了開始趕上這一延遲，我們需要增加運力，我們現在正在我們的設施中這樣做，以便我們可以在 2019 年第二季度開始趕上這些卡車，並繼續向前邁進。

On the ambulances and the buses, which is the $120 million, we should start to see that later in the end of Q1 through Q3.

在救護車和巴士上，耗資 1.2 億美元，我們應該在第一季末到第三季晚些時候開始看到這一點。

Maybe, Jamie, stepping back to some of the big ticket items for next year.

也許，傑米，明年會回到一些大件商品上。

We talked about the restructuring charges we took in the second quarter of 2018, benefiting us to the tune of $20 million year-over-year annually in cost reductions, we will see that next year.

我們談到了 2018 年第二季的重組費用，每年為我們帶來約 2000 萬美元的成本削減，我們將在明年看到這一點。

We saw $10 million of it in the second half of this year, we're going to see the other $10 million incremental next year.

我們在今年下半年看到了其中的 1000 萬美元，明年我們將看到另外 1000 萬美元的增量。

Our price-cost equation should be positive based upon our estimates, generating maybe approximately 100- basis points of gross margin next year, price versus cost.

根據我們的估計，我們的價格-成本方程式應該是正的，明年的毛利率（價格與成本）可能會增加約 100 個基點。

We will have some headwinds from labor inflation expectations, other labor -- other inflationary expectations for overhead, et cetera.

我們將面臨一些來自勞動力通膨預期、其他勞動力——其他管理費用通膨預期等方面的阻力。

And we'll have some incentive comp headwinds next year where we expect to pay that next year, but haven't paid this year.

明年我們將面臨一些激勵補償的不利因素，我們預計明年將支付這些費用，但今年尚未支付。

Okay.

好的。

Just one follow-up question.

只是一個後續問題。

Just strategically obviously, you announced the sale of some assets this morning.

顯然，從戰略上講，您今天早上宣佈出售一些資產。

So sort of what else is on the table?

那麼桌面上還有什麼呢？

And then Tim, as I'm just thinking about the strategy relative to when you guys IPO-ed, it was to be consolidator in the space, like how do I balance that with the view that there is -- does that strategy still work with the balancing that with there's more divestitures potentially on the table?

然後蒂姆，我只是在考慮與你們首次公開募股時相關的策略，那就是成為該領域的整合者，就像我如何平衡這一點與觀點——該策略仍然有效嗎？的資產剝離？

Well, we're going to keep what we think we can drive forward and we're going to, I guess, jettison the assets that we don't think are going to provide us that type of return.

好吧，我們將保留我們認為可以推動前進的資產，我想，我們將放棄那些我們認為不會為我們提供這種回報的資產。

I'll give you an example, we're selling our Alvarado RTC for approximately $12 million.

我舉個例子，我們的 Alvarado RTC 售價約為 1200 萬美元。

That facility has not provided us the return that we want and the return that we projected.

該設施沒有為我們提供我們想要的回報和我們預期的回報。

And it's on the block and that will be $12 million to the good.

它已經上市，這將帶來 1200 萬美元的善款。

As far as our path going forward, we continue to -- we plan to continue to consolidate within our industries.

就我們前進的道路而言，我們將繼續進行——我們計劃繼續在我們的行業內進行整合。

We're going to be very prudent, though, what we do acquire and it's not -- we haven't left the playing field.

不過，我們會非常謹慎，我們確實獲得了一些東西，但我們並沒有離開競爭環境。

We still have at least 3 or 4 potential targets that we review on a regular basis.

我們仍然有至少 3 或 4 個我們定期審查的潛在目標。

But we are going to be very discerning in what we do invest in.

但我們對投資的內容會非常挑剔。

It's about making money, and we're going to make sure we're making money, if we've made a misstep, we're going to self-correct that, especially in this market that we're in right now.

這是為了賺錢，我們將確保我們賺錢，如果我們犯了錯誤，我們將自我糾正，尤其是在我們現在所處的市場中。

Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Brady with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Charlie Brady。

Just on the RV side of the business, you mentioned a little bit in your prepared remarks on the kind of the inventory level within the dealers.

就房車業務而言，您在準備好的評論中提到了經銷商內的庫存水準。

But could you expand upon that as to what the dealer inventory level looks like right now?

但能否詳細介紹一下經銷商目前的庫存水準？

It sounds like the industry data itself is a little bit soft over the past couple of months.

聽起來過去幾個月產業數據本身有點疲軟。

Yes, the retail market's been off and accordingly the wholesale market has followed that.

是的，零售市場已經關閉，批發市場也隨之關閉。

We're not -- we're getting, I think, some pretty positive feedback from our dealers.

我認為我們沒有從經銷商那裡得到一些非常積極的回饋。

I think they're being cautious.

我認為他們很謹慎。

I think there was an oversupply into the industry, it was rocking forward at double-digit growth and I think it started to slow.

我認為該行業存在供過於求的情況，它正以兩位數的速度向前發展，但我認為它開始放緩。

And I think with that slowing of the retail market, people have already pulled back on the wholesale side.

我認為隨著零售市場的放緩，人們已經減少了批發業務。

People are still cautiously optimistic.

人們仍持謹慎樂觀的態度。

We're going into our buying season here in January, and that's going to be that the tell-tail sign.

一月份我們將進入購買季節，這將是一個明顯的跡象。

But dealers have been running down their inventories.

但經銷商一直在減少庫存。

Having said that, our Bs, Cs and Towables still have between 9 and 12 month backlogs.

話雖如此，我們的 B、C 和 Towable 仍有 9 至 12 個月的積壓。

So those 3 product groups, we are continuing to ship to dealers based on the backlog.

因此，我們將根據積壓訂單繼續向經銷商運送這 3 個產品組。

There have not been any cancellations, they continue to take that product.

沒有任何取消，他們繼續使用該產品。

The A's have been a little bit soft in the last -- actually the last year.

A隊在過去——實際上是去年——有點軟弱。

And that we think is going to continue until we see some meaningful retail activity as we get into the buying season here in January.

我們認為這種情況將會持續下去，直到我們在一月份進入購買季節時看到一些有意義的零售活動為止。

So I think probably a little bit of oversupply as the market is starting to cool off.

因此，我認為隨著市場開始降溫，可能會出現一點供應過剩。

People have taken action to slow ordering down, and I think we're all very anxious to see how the buying season kicks off here in the next couple of weeks.

人們已經採取行動減緩訂購速度，我想我們都非常渴望看到未來幾週購買季節如何開始。

And then switching on the Fire side.

然後打開火側。

Your commentary about having done -- I'm trying to get the catch up on the pushed out trucks having to add extra shifts extra labor.

你對所做工作的評論——我正在努力趕上那些被淘汰的卡車，不得不增加額外的班次和額外的勞動力。

I'm just wondering from a margin perspective on that segment as you ramp up these -- essentially cost to try to catch up on that revenue, should we expect sort of at least a near-term or maybe a couple of quarter dip in the margin of that business until it evens out with the production levels?

我只是想知道，從利潤率的角度來看，當你增加這些收入時——本質上是試圖趕上收入的成本，我們是否應該預期至少在短期內或可能會出現幾個季度的下降？ 該業務的利潤率直到與生產水準持平為止？

Yes, good observation.

是的，觀察力很好。

I think that's exactly right, Charlie.

我認為這是完全正確的，查理。

We have done a couple of things.

我們做了幾件事。

We have improved our health care cost, our health care benefits I should say, which obviously has had a somewhat of a decrease or an increase in our cost.

我們已經改善了我們的醫療保健成本，我應該說我們的醫療保健福利，這顯然使我們的成本減少或增加。

We've actually improved our hourly rates to make sure we're attracting good talent.

實際上，我們提高了小時費率，以確保吸引優秀人才。

I think the good news is, we're putting a back shift on in Ocala.

我認為好消息是，我們正在奧卡拉進行倒班。

We had a job fair last week.

上週我們舉辦了一次招聘會。

We had 200 people show up for the job fair and we filled that shift.

我們有 200 人參加了招聘會，我們填補了這個輪班。

We wouldn't have been able to do that unless we improved, quite frankly, our hourly rate and our health care benefits.

坦白說，除非我們改善我們的小時工資和醫療保健福利，否則我們不可能做到這一點。

So there will be a little bit of pressure on margins in the near-term, but nothing meaningful.

因此，短期內利潤率會受到一些壓力，但沒有什麼意義。

I know we're not talking significant reductions in margin, but it is going to have some cost increases that we think are completely appropriate -- and then actions, we had to take.

我知道我們不是在談論大幅削減利潤，而是會增加一些我們認為完全適當的成本 - 然後我們必須採取行動。

I think -- I tell you the other thing we've done and it's actually had a big positive impact is, we've run our Fire businesses with mandatory overtime for the last 3 years.

我想——我告訴你我們所做的另一件事，它實際上產生了巨大的積極影響，那就是，在過去的三年裡，我們一直在強制加班的情況下經營我們的消防業務。

And it's because the backlog has been high.

這是因為積壓量一直很高。

We've been working people really hard.

我們一直在努力工作。

The interesting thing is, when we took mandatory overtime off and put it as voluntary overtime, we haven't seen a decrease in overtime, it's been flat.

有趣的是，當我們把強制加班改為自願加班時，我們並沒有看到加班時間減少，而是持平。

But people are choosing versus us dictating to them, and that's had a very, very positive effect on our labor in our Fire segment too.

但是人們正在選擇而不是我們向他們發號施令，這也對我們消防部門的勞動力產生了非常非常積極的影響。

So I think our productivity is going to be a nice bump up.

所以我認為我們的生產力將會得到很好的提升。

Our cost will be a little bit higher, but we think that it will be more than offset with hopefully the efficiencies we're going to get as we move into fiscal 2019.

我們的成本會稍高一些，但我們認為這將足以抵消我們在進入 2019 財年時有望獲得的效率。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Robert W. Baird 的對話。

I'm still scratching my head a little bit on your EBITDA guidance, and maybe Dean or Tim you can help me with this.

我仍然對你的 EBITDA 指導有點摸不著頭腦，也許 Dean 或 Tim 你可以幫我解決這個問題。

But you're essentially at the mid-point guiding for an additional $12 million of EBITDA.

但您基本上處於額外 1200 萬美元 EBITDA 的中間指導位置。

You mentioned you are expecting $10 million of incremental savings, you're talking about price cost contributing a 100 bps so that's, what, north of $20 million.

您提到您預計將節省 1000 萬美元的增量，您談論的是價格成本貢獻 100 個基點，因此，這將超過 2000 萬美元。

I do know that there were a number of issues that you've had in fiscal '18.

我確實知道你們在 18 財年遇到了很多問題。

Some of them you called them in the fourth quarter to the tune of $12 million, right?

其中一些你在第四季度稱其為 1200 萬美元，對吧？

I think through -- Q1 through Q3 you had something like $18 million worth of chassis-related headwinds.

我想，從第一季到第三季度，您遇到了價值 1800 萬美元的與底盤相關的阻力。

So I guess -- I'm looking for some help to bucket, if you would, as to how we're getting to $12 million?

所以我想——如果你願意的話，我正在尋找一些幫助來幫助我們如何籌集 1200 萬美元？

Where are the drags that are still lasting into fiscal '19?

持續到 19 財年的阻力在哪裡？

Yes, I mean, I would say those numbers that you threw out are fairly accurate.

是的，我的意思是，我想說你拋出的那些數字是相當準確的。

One thing is, sitting here -- we don't want to be sitting here again next year with deferrals and delays, unexpected items that we explain away.

一件事是，坐在這裡——我們不想明年再坐在這裡，推遲和延誤，以及我們解釋的意外項目。

So we're estimating that there's going to be some of those things that might continue.

因此，我們估計其中一些事情可能會繼續下去。

We're going to work our tails off to not let those things continue.

我們將竭盡全力，不讓這些事情繼續下去。

But we're working towards making sure that we don't surprise the downside.

但我們正在努力確保不會出現令人意外的負面影響。

So I think that's one thing to take into consideration.

所以我認為這是需要考慮的一件事。

And these material and supply chain issues aren't completely behind us and the tariffs/inflationary pressures are still kind of out there in the public sector with a lot of noise today and so you can't predict that.

這些材料和供應鏈問題還沒有完全過去，關稅/通貨膨脹壓力仍然存在於公共部門，今天有很多噪音，所以你無法預測這一點。

So I think those things -- couple of those things.

所以我認為這些事情——其中一些。

It's not -- we're not in an environment yet Mig, without surprises.

米格，我們還沒有處於一個沒有驚喜的環境。

We were moving into our LA contract and only to find that we couldn't get windows.

我們即將簽訂洛杉磯合同，卻發現無法取得窗戶。

And we lost some shipments in the month of November.

我們在 11 月損失了一些貨物。

And those that were stretched into December, we think we'll catch up in January.

對於那些被拖到 12 月的項目，我們認為我們會在 1 月趕上。

These are the types of surprises that come out at us every single day, and until the market really settles down to the point that we feel we got consistent material supply and consistent chassis supply, we're going to be cautious.

這些都是我們每天都會遇到的驚喜，在市場真正穩定下來到我們認為我們獲得了穩定的材料供應和穩定的底盤供應之前，我們將保持謹慎。

And it really gets down to that.

這確實歸結為這一點。

I think you've done the math right.

我認為你已經算對了。

Those are all potential big plusses for us as we go through there.

當我們經歷這些時，這些對我們來說都是潛在的巨大優勢。

But for every plus, there seems to always be a negative that hits us, and we're being cautious.

但對於每一個優點，似乎總是有一個負面因素影響我們，我們對此保持謹慎。

Well, I appreciate that but if you're saying that my math is fairly correct than what we're talking about here is a pretty sizable hole or drag, if you would, that you had from a myriad of costs that you're essentially assuming into fiscal '19.

好吧，我很欣賞這一點，但如果你說我的數學相當正確，那麼我們在這裡討論的是一個相當大的漏洞或阻力，如果你願意的話，你從本質上是從無數的成本中得到的假設進入 19 財年。

And I guess, what I'm trying to figure out is, how much of this will be an ongoing issue?

我想，我想弄清楚的是，其中有多少將是一個持續存在的問題？

Like for instance, your labor inflation and health care cost, those aren't going to go away, they are just part of how we operate versus things that can eventually work themselves out, right?

例如，勞動力通膨和醫療保健成本，這些不會消失，它們只是我們運作方式的一部分，而不是最終可以自行解決的事情，對嗎？

And then additionally, what is it that gives you more confidence in -- or visibility into this chassis issue than what you've had say 3 months or 6 months ago?

另外，是什麼讓您比 3 個月或 6 個月前所說的更有信心或更清楚地了解這個底盤問題？

Because this is not a new issue, you've been struggling with it throughout the second half of '18?

因為這不是一個新問題，所以你在 18 年下半年一直在努力解決這個問題？

Well, the chassis, I will start from the back and work forward.

嗯，底盤，我就從後面開始，往前做。

On the chassis side, the reason we're actually performing a little bit better, I think, as we move through the year as we've been able to shift people on the Ford chassis.

在底盤方面，我認為，我們實際上表現得更好一點的原因是，隨著這一年的發展，我們已經能夠在福特底盤上轉移人員。

I'll give you an example.

我給你舉個例子。

We can't get Dodge chassis, still can't.

我們買不到道奇底盤，現在仍然買不到。

We've been able to effectively move our customers off of Dodge onto Ford.

我們已經能夠有效地將客戶從道奇轉向福特。

The 1 customer base that is a little bit difficult to move off of those Mercedes-Benz, when they want Mercedes-Benz, they want Mercedes-Benz.

1 客戶群有點難以擺脫那些梅賽德斯-奔馳，當他們想要梅賽德斯-奔馳時，他們想要梅賽德斯-奔馳。

And we're just struggling to get those chassis right now and for a number of reasons, and we don't see light at the end of the tunnel until we get well into the second quarter on that.

由於多種原因，我們現在正在努力獲得這些底盤，直到我們進入第二季度，我們才看到隧道盡頭的曙光。

I think, if you look at -- in the chart that we did, we did it because we think it's factual.

我認為，如果你看一下我們所做的圖表，我們這樣做是因為我們認為這是事實。

This thing doesn't self-correct quickly.

這件事不會很快自我糾正。

It's -- we thought okay, we're going to be able to muscle through the fourth quarter and we'll be fine as we get into fiscal '19.

我們認為好吧，我們將能夠在第四季度保持強勁勢頭，並且在進入 19 財年時一切都會好起來的。

You can see what we see in the first quarter.

你可以看到我們在第一季看到的情況。

A year-over-year comparison looks bad and because it is bad.

逐年比較看起來很糟糕，因為它很糟糕。

We're not going to be even close to where we were in '17 and '18 and then really down quarter, even with a lot of carryover from '18 as far as backlog.

我們不會接近 17 年和 18 年的水平，然後季度就會真正下降，即使在積壓方面有很多 18 年的結轉。

I think as we progress through the year and the surprises on the material side settle down to the point that we're comfortable, we'll take another look at guidance.

我認為，隨著這一年的進展以及物質的驚喜逐漸穩定下來，我們將重新審視指導。

We've got a lot of levers that we can pull and things that we think we can improve.

我們有很多可以利用的槓桿以及我們認為可以改進的東西。

We've laid them all out there and for every positive we hope there's not a negative to pull us down but it's conservative, we'll obviously revisit it every quarter and keep you advised on how we're progressing through our plan.

我們已經把它們全部列出來了，對於每一個積極的方面，我們希望沒有消極的因素讓我們失望，但這是保守的，我們顯然會每個季度重新審視它，並隨時向您通報我們的計劃進展情況。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

One last, if I may.

最後，如果可以的話。

Just trying to understand how you're thinking at segment level on revenue.

只是想了解您在細分市場層面對收入的看法。

You're talking about catching up on $40 million in Fire & Emergency, that's good.

你說的是《消防與緊急救援》要追上 4000 萬美元，這很好。

You're talking about starting to ship on the LA bus order in Commercial, so that's going to give you some growth.

您正在談論開始在洛杉磯商業巴士訂單上發貨，因此這將為您帶來一些增長。

It seems to me like your guidance implies your RV business being down.

在我看來，你的指導意味著你的房車業務正在下滑。

Am I right about that?

我的說法正確嗎？

How are you thinking about it?

你覺得怎麼樣？

No, RV's not going to be down, RV is going to be up, Because of the backlog that we've got.

不，RV 不會下降，RV 會上升，因為我們有積壓。

And the good news I think is on the B, Cs and Towables.

我認為好消息是 B、C 和 Towables。

We had significant cost increases on those back in the second quarter.

第二季我們的成本大幅增加。

But the material's flowing fairly well in the RV industry right now, primarily due to the fact that a lot of the RV manufacturers have had their backlog shrink, which means that material availability in RV is probably some of our best availability.

但目前房車行業的材料流動性相當好，主要是因為許多房車製造商的積壓訂單都減少了，這意味著房車中的材料可用性可能是我們最好的可用性之一。

There's not the demand that there was 6 months ago.

與 6 個月前相比，需求減少。

So that's pretty good.

所以這非常好。

I think -- we think we will grow RV, the backlogs are great.

我認為——我們認為我們會增加 RV，積壓的訂單量很大。

Across the board, our issues by and large, have nothing to do with backlog.

總的來說，我們的問題總體上與積壓無關。

We got more work that we're faced with right now, which is absolutely the most positive thing we've got going for us.

我們現在面臨著更多的工作，這絕對是我們所做的最積極的事情。

It's just a matter of getting the material and then executing on getting the things to the plant.

這只是獲取材料然後執行將其運送到工廠的問題。

And we'll get there, but RV will grow this year.

我們將實現這一目標，但 RV 今年將會成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Levich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·萊維奇（Jerry Levich）。

This is Ben Burud on for Jerry.

我是本布魯德 (Ben Burud) 替傑瑞 (Jerry) 發言。

Tim, in the fire truck business, can you just elaborate on which facilities drove the shortfall?

提姆，在消防車產業，您能詳細說明一下是哪些設施造成了短缺嗎？

And where do daily production rates stand today compared to maybe June or July?

與六月或七月相比，今天的每日生產力處於什麼水平？

The concern is that when we've seen production issues like this in the fire truck industry in the past, that they've ultimately taken years to resolve.

令人擔憂的是，當我們過去在消防車行業看到類似的生產問題時，它們最終需要數年時間才能解決。

Can you kind of help us maybe quantify the ultimate risk and that -- if that's the case here?

如果是這種情況，您能否幫助我們量化最終風險？

The 2 plants that really had the most issues were our KME plant in Nesquehoning, Pennsylvania, which is KME and E-ONE in Ocala, Florida.

真正問題最多的兩家工廠是我們位於賓州內斯奎霍寧的 KME 工廠，位於佛羅裡達州奧卡拉的 KME 和 E-ONE。

E-ONE, by far has the biggest backlog and that's the plant that we've put the back shift on and we just put that on.

E-ONE 是迄今為止積壓量最大的工廠，我們已經在這家工廠進行了倒班，我們只是將其進行了安排。

But we'll work through, and I think we're looking at a significant increase in units out of all 3 of our plants, but in particular, Ocala this year, which has the biggest backlog.

但我們會努力解決這個問題，我認為我們正在考慮所有三個工廠的產量顯著增加，特別是今年積壓最多的奧卡拉工廠。

The good news is, if we get a backlog that doesn't go away, we just have to whittle it down and get it down.

好消息是，如果積壓的訂單無法消失，我們只需將其削減並減少即可。

We've got a 14-month backlog in Ocala right now, which is too much and with this back shift, we'll know certainly as we work through our first quarter, what our opportunities are to make those shipments.

目前我們在奧卡拉有 14 個月的積壓，這太多了，透過這次倒班，我們肯定會在第一季工作時知道我們有哪些機會來出貨。

But we're optimistic, we not pessimistic that we can't hit our shipments and actually whittle that backlog down a little bit.

但我們很樂觀，我們並不悲觀，因為我們無法達到出貨量並實際上減少積壓訂單。

All right.

好的。

And then you called out Fire & Emergency price increases in the release.

然後您在新聞稿中呼籲消防和緊急情況價格上漲。

Can you please give us an idea to the magnitude and timing of any set increases?

您能否告訴我們任何組數增加的幅度和時間？

How much you expect will stick?

您期望能堅持多少？

And what, if any other, actions you've seen competitors take?

您看到競爭對手採取了什麼行動（如果有的話）？

Well first, we've had price increases across the board.

首先，我們全面提價。

Everything's engaged in price increases including RV and Commercial, and we've done that, obviously, to react to the significant price increases we've got in the second quarter, which was a huge spike and the ongoing material cost increases.

包括房車和商業在內的一切都在漲價，顯然，我們這樣做是為了應對第二季度的價格大幅上漲，這是一個巨大的飆升，並且材料成本持續上漲。

They haven't been nearly to the magnitude they were in the second quarter in Q3 and Q4, but we have seen increases.

雖然還沒有達到第二季第三季和第四季的水平，但我們已經看到了成長。

And I think the good news is, we believe that with the price increases that we put out there immediately back in the second quarter and what we put out there now in the third and fourth quarter, that we're ahead of the cost increases that we're getting with materials.

我認為好消息是，我們相信，隨著我們在第二季度立即推出的價格上漲以及我們現在在第三和第四季度推出的價格上漲，我們領先於成本上漲我們正在準備材料。

It's not good enough just to run with the material cost increases, you got to get ahead of them as well.

僅僅跟隨材料成本的增加是不夠的，你還必須領先它們。

So the price increases have been across the board, and we think that we've been able to keep -- we've got ourselves positioned well now, we think, to stay ahead of it.

因此，價格全面上漲，我們認為我們現在已經處於有利位置，可以保持領先地位。

So just to clarify, so is it fair to say that the 100 bp price cost tailwind next year, that there is more risk on the cost side than there is on the pricing side?

因此，我想澄清一下，可以公平地說明年 100 個基點的價格成本順風，成本方面的風險比定價方面的風險更大嗎？

Yes, that's a fair statement.

是的，這是一個公平的說法。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的安迪凱西（Andy Casey）。

I'd just like to ask a few questions around operating cash flow.

我想問幾個關於經營現金流的問題。

First a clarification.

首先澄清一下。

Does the $110 million, $130 million guide -- and thanks for providing that, by the way -- does that include any gain on asset sales or is it -- is most of the improvement versus this year mainly a swing to positive working capital contribution versus the $115 million assumption during '18?

1.1 億美元、1.3 億美元的指導——順便說一句，謝謝你提供這一點——這是否包括資產出售的任何收益，或者是——是今年的大部分改進，主要是轉向積極的營運資本貢獻與18 年期間1.15 億美元的假設相比？

Andy, that includes both.

安迪，兩者都包括。

It's not a gain per se, it's just the cash from -- the total cash from the opportunities as well as generating positive cash from working capital and then earnings.

這本身並不是收益，而是來自機會的總現金以及從營運資本和收益中產生的正現金。

But it's the GAAP line item, net cash from operations.

但這是公認會計原則的項目，即來自營運的淨現金。

Okay.

好的。

So that -- I'm sorry, Dean, that would include the $40 million anticipated cash inflow?

那麼——對不起，Dean，這將包括 4000 萬美元的預期現金流入？

Yes, it does.

是的，確實如此。

Okay.

好的。

And then the comments about Q1 leverage going up a little bit, that implies, obviously it's probably going to be negative.

然後關於第一季槓桿率略有上升的評論，這意味著，顯然它可能會是負面的。

I'm just wondering how negative?

我只是想知道負面程度如何？

Should we expect it to be above or beneath what you did in Q1 '18?

我們應該期望它高於還是低於你們在 18 年第一季所做的事情？

Oh, yes, you say OC meaning operating cash flow in the first quarter.

哦，是的，你說的OC是指第一季的營運現金流。

Yes?

是的？

Yes, I think we're going to generate some cash from some of those initiatives, a small amount, we're going to start to generate that in the first quarter, but it'll still be a typical seasonal use of cash in the first quarter.

是的，我認為我們將從其中一些舉措中產生一些現金，少量，我們將在第一季開始產生現金，但這仍然是現金的典型季節性使用。

Okay.

好的。

And then the question comes about, you're starting to divest underperforming assets, you've got the ABL there.

然後問題來了，你開始剝離表現不佳的資產，你已經有了 ABL。

Could you discuss whether the current ABL restricts -- puts any restrictions on which assets or the dollar value of asset you could sell?

您能否討論一下目前的 ABL 是否對您可以出售的資產或資產的美元價值施加任何限制？

No, it doesn't put a restriction like that on it.

不，它沒有這樣的限制。

We need to use that cash for debt reduction or reinvest it in the business, but that's only restriction.

我們需要使用這些現金來減少債務或將其再投資於業務，但這只是限制。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

So just 2 questions.

所以只有兩個問題。

I wondered -- one is just a quick clean-up if you can give us some idea of the revenue impact, just to model for 2019 from the divestments, is it similar to the proceeds?

我想知道 - 如果您能給我們一些關於收入影響的想法，只是快速清理，只是為了根據撤資對 2019 年進行建模，它與收益相似嗎？

Yes, the one we called out in the press release of the mobility van business is $40 million in revenue approximately.

是的，我們在新聞稿中提到的行動貨車業務的收入約為 4000 萬美元。

The Alvarado property that Tim talked about is lower than that, not really significant.

提姆談到的阿爾瓦拉多財產低於這個數字，這並不重要。

So the Revability brand sales will be the biggest impact.

所以Revability品牌的銷售量將受到最大的影響。

And then on the fire business, can -- just one more question there, like are your competitors having the same issues with the some of the chassis unavailability.

然後在消防業務上，可以——還有一個問題，例如你的競爭對手是否也有一些底盤不可用的問題。

I know your production issues are probably just you guys.

我知道你們的生產問題可能只是你們自己造成的。

And I'm trying to think about any potential impact on market share as we look further down the road?

當我們進一步展望未來時，我正在嘗試思考對市場佔有率的潛在影響？

Yes, we've got actually no chassis issue on Fire because all of us in fire make our own chassis with the exception of obviously we do build on some commercial chassis but it's a small percentage of what we do.

是的，我們在 Fire 上實際上沒有遇到底盤問題，因為我們所有人都在製造自己的底盤，顯然我們確實是在一些商業底盤上建造的，但這只是我們所做的一小部分。

So no, I think, yes, we're going to be kind of even-up with our competitors across the board.

所以，不，我認為，是的，我們將在全面上與我們的競爭對手持平。

I think all of us have some nice backlog.

我認為我們所有人都有一些不錯的積壓工作。

I think the readjustment on our labor side in the fourth quarter is going to -- the timing wasn't the best but I really am happy about where we put ourselves from the labor standpoint now.

我認為第四季度我們勞動力方面的調整將會——時機不是最好的，但我真的很高興我們現在從勞動力的角度來看。

And I think we'll be able to compete very effectively in the marketplace.

我認為我們將能夠在市場上非常有效地競爭。

All of us have been -- at least the large fire brass manufacturers have been doing fine.

我們所有人都是——至少大型火黃銅製造商一直做得很好。

And we all have big backlogs, and we're all taking a little bit of share from more of the smaller regional players here this year.

我們都有大量積壓訂單，今年我們都從更多較小的區域參與者那裡獲得了一點份額。

So I think that's just going to continue, Joel.

所以我認為這種情況會繼續下去，喬爾。

I think we're in good shape actually.

我認為我們實際上狀態很好。

Our next question is a follow-up question from Charlie Brady with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題是 SunTrust 的 Charlie Brady 提出的後續問題。

Just back on the backlog, obviously, very high backlog, but from a cost standpoint that flow through is on a pretty good lag, correct -- you're not going back and able to reprice whatever's in your backlog right now so the flow through on the cost increases I would think would be later in the fiscal year going into fiscal 2020 before you start realizing a lot of that or am I mistaken?

回到積壓，顯然，非常高的積壓，但從成本的角度來看，流通量有相當好的滯後性，正確的——你不能回去並能夠重新定價現在積壓中的任何東西，所以流通量關於成本增加，我認為會在進入2020 財年的本財年晚些時候，您才會開始意識到這一點，還是我錯了？

No, it's mostly the second half.

不，主要是下半場。

But just keep in mind too, some contracts do have some adjustment provisions in them, they're not all, locked and loaded and we're hung out to dry.

但也要記住，有些合約確實有一些調整條款，但並非全部都已鎖定並加載，我們就等著晾乾。

I think, we are able to affect surcharges of some of those contracts.

我認為，我們能夠影響其中一些合約的附加費。

We actually think the backlog is a pretty high-quality backlog that we have right now.

事實上，我們認為我們現在的積壓工作品質相當高。

We think some of the backlog we have when we got the big spikes in the second quarter that we had to ship out third and fourth quarter, those were not necessarily quality backlogs.

我們認為，當我們在第二季度大幅成長時，我們必須在第三和第四季出貨，因此我們有一些積壓，這些不一定是高品質的積壓。

And we got kind of hung out to dry with those really vicious high increases that we got in the second quarter but we're in good shape now.

我們在第二季度獲得了非常惡性的高成長，但我們現在狀況良好。

We like the quality in our backlog, and we think we'll be able to cover cost as we move forward.

我們喜歡積壓訂單的質量，我們認為隨著我們的前進，我們將能夠彌補成本。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·福克曼和傑弗里斯的對話。

I just had a couple of quick things.

我剛剛做了幾件事。

Obviously, one of the problems we've had this year is the market just does not like surprises, and I know you're saying that 1Q will be down versus last year but it's a big range.

顯然，我們今年遇到的問題之一是市場不喜歡驚喜，我知道你說第一季將比去年下降，但幅度很大。

So I guess I'm just trying to see if there's any further guidance, Dean.

所以我想我只是想看看是否有任何進一步的指導，Dean。

I mean, will you be profitable on an EPS basis in the 1Q?

我的意思是，以每股盈餘計算，你們會在第一季實現獲利嗎？

Or can you give us some kind of book-ends so we don't just do this again in 90 days?

或者您能給我們某種書擋，這樣我們就不會在 90 天內再次這樣做嗎？

I don't think we want to give quarterly guidance, Steve.

我認為我們不想提供季度指導，史蒂夫。

I think last year we were at $21 million of EBITDA and we're going to be below that.

我認為去年我們的 EBITDA 為 2,100 萬美元，我們將會低於這個數字。

I really don't want to get into quarterly guidance.

我真的不想討論季度指引。

Tim, maybe...

提姆，也許…

No, I think Steve, I think the real issue is, it's all relative, right?

不，我認為史蒂夫，我認為真正的問題是，這都是相對的，對吧？

You can kind of see what happened in Q4.

你可以看看第四季度發生了什麼。

Q4 is very similar to what we're looking at in Q1, and we don't see really any recovery until Q2.

第四季與我們在第一季看到的情況非常相似，直到第二季我們才看到真正的復甦。

And the reason we feel pretty confident about it in Q2 is we got the material already coming in.

我們對第二季度充滿信心的原因是我們已經收到了材料。

Unless we've got it in our hands, it's hard for us to really commit to numbers that we think we've got.

除非我們已經掌握了它，否則我們很難真正致力於我們認為我們已經掌握的數字。

But we're not -- we're about halfway through Q1.

但我們沒有——我們已經完成第一季的一半了。

I've already mentioned one of the surprises that we had on transit buses and the surprises keep coming.

我已經提到我們在公車上遇到的驚喜之一，而且驚喜還在繼續。

So it's really hard to give you some solid guidance.

所以很難給你一些可靠的指導。

We just know for a fact right now, and we're trying to give everyone a heads up, it's going to be below last year.

我們現在只知道一個事實，我們正在努力提醒大家，這個數字將低於去年。

We know that for sure.

我們肯定知道這一點。

Okay.

好的。

And Tim, the surprise you just alluded to was the windows?

提姆，你剛才提到的驚喜是窗戶？

Yes, yes, and that's just one of the obviously several things that we deal on a daily basis.

是的，是的，這顯然只是我們每天處理的幾件事之一。

But our sourcing team has actually done a tremendous job, really kind of expediting a lot of things, and we're working -- it's kind of a tough situation, right?

但我們的採購團隊實際上做了很多工作，確實加快了很多事情，而且我們正在努力——這是一個艱難的情況，對吧？

We want to manage cash but we got to get the material in here.

我們想要管理現金，但我們必須把材料放在這裡。

The more -- if we get the material in here in advance, we feel confident that we can get the shipments out.

更重要的是，如果我們提前把材料運到這裡，我們就有信心能夠把貨物運出去。

So we got opposing strategies there.

所以我們在那裡採取了相反的策略。

But I think we're managing through that.

但我認為我們正在解決這個問題。

I think we probably modeled this thing about a hundred different ways, and I think we feel pretty confident that as we move through this year now and staying ahead of the material gain with the backlogs we've got that we can get back on top of it.

我認為我們可能以一百種不同的方式對這件事進行建模，而且我認為我們非常有信心，隨著我們今年的進展，並通過積壓的積壓保持領先的物質收益，我們可以重新掌控一切它。

Okay.

好的。

And then I just had kind of a bigger-picture question.

然後我有一個更大的問題。

It feels like you guys have had a few, I don't know how to describe them, kind of adventures maybe obviously, sort of what you're doing in China, what you're doing in Brazil, I'm thinking of the coach business.

感覺你們經歷過一些，我不知道如何描述它們，顯然是一種冒險，就像你們在中國所做的事情，你們在巴西所做的事情，我在想教練業務。

Those feel sort of noncore domain, this seems like kind of environment where you really should be all hands focused on the core business and improving these things.

這些感覺有點非核心領域，這似乎是一種你真的應該全力專注於核心業務並改進這些東西的環境。

So is there an issue where either management time or attention has been sort of siphoned off on some of these other things.

那麼，是否存在管理時間或註意力被其他一些事情吸引的問題？

Are there additional activities that you could curtail that would help you to focus on the core business going forward?

您是否可以減少其他活動來幫助您專注於未來的核心業務？

I'm just trying to think about how many balls you have in the air at one time.

我只是想想想你同時有多少個球在空中。

You're very observant, Steve.

你非常善於觀察，史蒂夫。

Everything's on the table.

一切都在桌面上。

Obviously, Revability is gone because it was taking a lot of our time to focus to try to make that profitable.

顯然，Revability 已經消失了，因為我們花了很多時間來集中精力來實現盈利。

That's an interesting sale because it's a sale/merger.

這是一次有趣的出售，因為這是一次出售/合併。

We've taken an equity position in VMI.

我們持有 VMI 的股權。

VMI is owned by private equity and this now creates a situation where our product line becomes part of VMI's who competes with only one other player in mobility van of meaningful size and that's BraunAbility, which obviously creates a very good competitive dynamic in the marketplace.

VMI 由私募股權公司擁有，這造成了這樣一種情況：我們的產品線成為VMI 的一部分，而VMI 在移動貨車方面只與另一家具有一定規模的參與者競爭，那就是BraunAbility，這顯然在市場上創造了非常好的競爭動力。

We're out of it as far as producing product daily, but we're still in it, because we have equity position in VMI, going forward.

就每天生產產品而言，我們已經擺脫了困境，但我們仍然在其中，因為我們在 VMI 中擁有股權，並且繼續前進。

I raise that because there's a lot of different ways to do and deal with things.

我提出這個問題是因為做事和處理事情的方式有很多不同。

Everything's on the table.

一切都在桌面上。

If we don't think it's a core business and we do think it's distracting us, it will be divested, it will be gone.

如果我們不認為它是核心業務，並且確實認為它分散了我們的注意力，那麼它就會被剝離，它就會消失。

And you named a few things that we have to take a look at as we move through 2019 here.

您在此列舉了我們在 2019 年邁入時必須關注的一些事項。

We want to continue to consolidate, and our core businesses still have some ability -- or we have some ability to consolidate some of our core businesses.

我們要繼續整合，我們的核心業務還是有一定能力的——或者說我們有能力去整合我們的一些核心業務。

So we'll be looking more towards those things.

所以我們會更關注這些事情。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

Mr. Sullivan, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

沙利文先生，我現在想請您發表總結意見。

Well, thanks again for everyone joining us today.

好的，再次感謝今天加入我們的大家。

Obviously, tough times at REV Group, but it's temporary, it's short-term.

顯然，REV 集團正經歷艱難時期，但這是暫時的、短期的。

The fact that we have the backlogs that we have, the fact that our markets are strong -- if you are running a business, a manufacturing business those things are golden.

事實上，我們有積壓訂單，我們的市場很強大——如果你經營一家企業，一家製造業，這些東西都是黃金。

Backlog is a wonderful thing and the fact that, that backlog is solid and it's -- none of it's going away gives us all the opportunity in the world to just progress forward, put our head down and make sure that we do everything we can to execute on our plans that we have in place.

積壓是一件美妙的事情，事實上，積壓是堅實的，而且沒有一個會消失，這讓我們有機會繼續前進，埋頭苦幹，確保我們盡我們所能執行我們已有的計劃。

Again, short-term issues like this are easily overcome.

同樣，像這樣的短期問題很容易克服。

The main thing though I do want to say and this is something that -- we've been growing so fast in the last couple of years without a lot of headwinds that it's time now for us to really move to the next level of management expertise and that's to manage cash as we move through 2019.

但我確實想說的最重要的一點是——我們在過去幾年中發展得如此之快，沒有遇到很多阻力，現在是我們真正邁向更高水平的管理專業知識的時候了這就是在2019 年管理現金。

I think, obviously, it's part and parcel of any business that you run, and this gives us an opportunity to really make sure that we pull things together as a management team, we hunker down.

我認為，顯然，這是您經營的任何業務的重要組成部分，這給了我們一個機會，真正確保我們作為一個管理團隊將事情整合在一起，我們蹲下來。

I can tell you that probably in the last 3 months, this management team has worked harder coming up with plans to execute when we have all these outside forces.

我可以告訴你，也許在過去的三個月裡，當我們擁有所有這些外部力量時，這個管理團隊更努力地制定了執行計畫。

We're getting very, very good, and we're going to be very good as come out the backside of the short-term issues that we're dealing with right now.

我們正在變得非常非常好，並且在擺脫我們現在正在處理的短期問題的影響後，我們將會變得非常好。

So thanks, again, for joining us.

再次感謝您加入我們。

We'll talk to you again at the end of first quarter, and obviously we'll have a much brighter idea or at least clear picture of what fiscal 2019 will bring us.

我們將在第一季末再次與您交談，顯然我們將對 2019 財年將為我們帶來什麼有一個更明智的想法或至少清晰的畫面。

Happy holidays, everyone.

大家節日快樂。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。