REV Group Inc (REVG) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the REV Group First Quarter 2018 Conference Call.

您好，歡迎參加 REV 集團 2018 年第一季電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, Sandy Bugbee.

我想把會議交給主持人桑迪·巴格比。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

Last night, we issued our first quarter 2018 results.

昨晚，我們發布了 2018 年第一季業績。

A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com.

新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 Investors.revgroup.com 上取得。

Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call.

今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的非公認會計原則與公認會計原則財務指標的協調表。

It is also available on our website.

它也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation.

現在請參閱該簡報的幻燈片 2。

Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

我們的評論和回答將包括《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed last night with the SEC and other filings we make with the SEC.

這些風險包括我們在昨晚向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中描述的事項。

We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些前瞻性陳述可能要到我們下一次季度財報電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。

All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議中所有提及的季度或年度均指我們的財務季度或財政年度。

Joining me on the call today are our President and CEO, Tim Sullivan; as well as our CFO, Dean Nolden.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tim Sullivan；以及我們的財務長 Dean Nolden。

I will now turn the call over to Tim.

我現在將把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Sandy, and welcome to everyone on the call.

謝謝你，桑迪，歡迎大家參加電話會議。

Thank you for your interest in REV Group.

感謝您對 REV 集團的關注。

Before I begin my review of the quarter, I'd like to thank, everyone, who joined us and the more than 1,400 dealers at our Dealers Summit Investor Day event in Orlando in January.

在開始回顧本季之前，我要感謝參加 1 月在奧蘭多舉行的經銷商峰會投資者日活動的所有人以及 1,400 多名經銷商。

We showcased more than 50 REV vehicles across our entire portfolio.

我們展示了整個產品組合中的 50 多輛 REV 車輛。

We discussed our parts and international strategies in greater detail, and we provided a sneak preview of our 2019 RV lineup of products.

我們更詳細地討論了我們的零件和國際策略，並預覽了 2019 年 RV 產品系列。

We received great feedback on the event from dealers, customers and various stakeholders, and would encourage anyone who might be new to our story to refer to the Investor Day presentation materials, which are still available on our website.

我們從經銷商、客戶和各利益相關者那裡收到了有關該活動的大量反饋，並鼓勵任何可能對我們的故事不熟悉的人參考投資者日演示材料，這些材料仍然可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now let's review our first quarter 2018 financial results were in line with our expectations.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們 2018 年第一季的財務表現是否符合我們的預期。

We are on track to meet our full year plan.

我們有望實現全年計劃。

Net sales grew 16%, and we experienced sales growth in each of our reporting segments.

淨銷售額成長了 16%，我們每個報告部門的銷售額都在成長。

Our 2017 acquisitions continue to perform well, and we're implementing operational initiatives that will help us meet our objective of driving earnings growth that outperform sales growth in 2018.

我們 2017 年的收購持續表現良好，我們正在實施營運計劃，這將有助於我們實現推動獲利成長超過 2018 年銷售成長的目標。

All 3 of our segments, Fire & Emergency, Commercial, and Recreation, have favorable outlooks with continued strength of demand in their end markets and strong backlogs.

我們的所有三個細分市場（消防和緊急情況、商業和娛樂）都具有良好的前景，因為終端市場的需求持續強勁，積壓量很大。

We mentioned, on our last call, the November introduction of the Chrysler Pacifica hybrid rear-entry mobility van.

我們在上次電話會議中提到，克萊斯勒 Pacifica 混合動力後入式行動貨車將於 11 月推出。

And during the REV summit in January, E-ONE introduce their new Titan ARFF, adding 2 new products in the quarter.

在 1 月的 REV 高峰會上，E-ONE 推出了新的 Titan ARFF，並在本季度增加了 2 款新產品。

The Titan has been designed to allow us to compete on the global stage for airport opportunities, which represents a large and attractive end market.

泰坦的設計目的是讓我們能夠在全球舞台上競爭機場機會，這代表著一個巨大且有吸引力的終端市場。

I am pleased to advise that we have already booked our first significant sale of this product, with the sale of 9 units to a customer in Peru.

我很高興地通知您，我們已經預訂了該產品的首次重大銷售，向秘魯的一位客戶銷售了 9 件。

We had 2 transformational transactions in the quarter.

本季我們進行了兩筆轉型交易。

In addition to the Cherry JV consummated in the first week in December, that we announced in our last call, we signed a collaboration agreement in late December with Daimler in Germany to distribute the Setra motor coach in the U.S. market.

除了我們在上次電話會議中宣布的 12 月第一周成立的 Cherry 合資企業之外，我們還在 12 月底與德國戴姆勒簽署了一項合作協議，在美國市場分銷 Setra 客車。

Setra is the leading European motor coach brand.

Setra 是歐洲領先的客車品牌。

Other collaborative efforts are contemplated with new -- with the new Daimler agreement.

新的戴姆勒協議正在考慮其他合作努力。

Also, in early January, we acquired Lance Camper Manufacturing Corporation.

此外，一月初，我們收購了 Lance Camper Manufacturing Corporation。

Lance adds a premium portfolio of truck campers, towable campers, and toy haulers to our existing suite of motorized offerings and gives the Recreational segment access to the higher volume and rapidly growing towable's RV market segment.

Lance 在我們現有的機動產品套件中添加了卡車露營車、可牽引露營車和玩具拖車的優質產品組合，並使休閒細分市場能夠進入容量更大且快速增長的可牽引房車市場領域。

Lance has the #1 selling truck camper in the U.S. and has won the National RV Dealer Association's prestigious Quality Circle Award, 16 years running.

Lance 擁有全美銷售第一的卡車露營車，並連續 16 年榮獲美國房車經銷商協會著名的品質圈獎。

We're in the early days of integration process right now, but the addition of Lance is a great compliment to our existing product portfolio, and we expect it to continue to long-term sales growth and profitability improvement.

我們目前正處於整合過程的早期階段，但 Lance 的加入是對我們現有產品組合的極大補充，我們預計它將繼續實現長期銷售成長和獲利能力改善。

Slide 6 shows our outlook for the remainder of the year.

幻燈片 6 顯示了我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。

Our full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook remains unchanged, but we've revised our expectations for net income and adjusted net income to reflect the first quarter results.

我們的全年收入和調整後 EBITDA 前景保持不變，但我們修改了對淨利潤和調整後淨利潤的預期，以反映第一季的業績。

We expect full year 2018 revenues to be from $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA from $200 million to $220 million.

我們預計 2018 年全年營收將從 24 億美元增至 27 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 從 2 億美元增至 2.2 億美元。

And we now expect fiscal 2018 net income to be in the range of $90 million to $110 million, and adjusted net income to be in the range of $110 million to $125 million.

我們現在預計 2018 財年淨利潤將在 9,000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元之間，調整後淨利潤將在 1.1 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。

This outlook represents adjusted EBITDA growth greater than 30% in fiscal 2018 and puts us on track to achieve our goal of doubling pre-IPO EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins of 10% by 2019.

這一前景表明 2018 財年調整後 EBITDA 增長超過 30%，並使我們有望實現到 2019 年將 IPO 前 EBITDA 翻一番以及調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 10% 的目標。

As will be the case every year, we expect to generate the majority of our adjusted EBITDA during the second half of the year with only 30% of our full year adjusted EBITDA expected to occur during the first half of the year.

與每年的情況一樣，我們預計在下半年產生大部分調整後 EBITDA，而全年調整後 EBITDA 預計只有 30% 在上半年產生。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dean to provide some more detailed coverage of our financial performance.

現在我將把電話轉給 Dean，以提供有關我們財務業績的更詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning.

謝謝蒂姆，早安。

Please move to Slide 7.

請移至投影片 7。

As Tim said, our year is off to a good start with sales growth, and we're on track to meet our plan for the full year.

正如蒂姆所說，我們的一年有了良好的開端，銷售成長，我們有望實現全年計劃。

Quarterly net sales of $514.9 million were up 16.2% over last year.

季度淨銷售額為 5.149 億美元，比去年同期成長 16.2%。

Recent acquisitions contributed to our sales growth in the quarter, but we also experienced growth across all operating segments, with a few exceptions due to sales mix and timing of shipments.

最近的收購促進了我們本季的銷售成長，但我們所有營運部門也都實現了成長，但由於銷售組合和出貨時間的原因，有一些例外。

Net income grew by 171% in the first quarter to $9.4 million or $0.14 per diluted share.

第一季淨利潤成長 171%，達到 940 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.14 美元。

Adjusted net income grew by 72% for the quarter to $9.7 million or $0.15 per diluted share.

該季度調整後淨利潤增長 72%，達到 970 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.15 美元。

We are pleased with this improvement, which was the result of benefits from acquisitions, higher earnings from operations, lower interest expense and the favorable impact of recently enacted U.S. Tax Reform.

我們對這一改善感到滿意，這是收購帶來的好處、營運收益的增加、利息支出的降低以及最近頒布的美國稅制改革的有利影響的結果。

Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter increased 1% to $21.3 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of $21.1 million in the first quarter of 2017.

第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 1%，達到 2,130 萬美元，而 2017 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,110 萬美元。

Adjusted EBITDA performance during the quarter benefited from the result of acquisitions as well as higher net sales and earnings from certain business segments.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 業績受益於收購結果以及某些業務部門更高的淨銷售額和收益。

Adjusted EBITDA was also somewhat impacted by one-time expenses pertaining to the transactions, Tim mentioned, that occurred in the quarter.

提姆提到，調整後的 EBITDA 也受到了與本季發生的交易相關的一次性費用的影響。

We expect the pace of operational leverage to accelerate in fiscal 2018, as we benefit from a full year of the continued improvements made in procurement, operational efficiencies as well as from our increased scale.

我們預計 2018 財年營運槓桿的步伐將加快，因為我​​們受益於全年採購、營運效率的持續改善以及規模的擴大。

Let me now turn to Page 8 to start to discuss the performance of our segments.

現在讓我翻到第 8 頁，開始討論我們各部門的表現。

Fire & Emergency segment sales increased 16.1% to $215.3 million for the first quarter of 2018.

2018 年第一季度，消防與緊急部門銷售額成長 16.1%，達到 2.153 億美元。

Three primary drivers of this increase were higher unit sales, the contribution from our April 2017 acquisition of Ferrara and higher average selling prices.

這一成長的三個主要驅動因素是單位銷售的增加、我們 2017 年 4 月收購 Ferrara 的貢獻以及平均售價的提高。

F&E adjusted EBITDA for the quarter grew 8.7% to $18.2 million, driven primarily by material cost reductions, improved manufacturing efficiencies and our recently acquired companies and the impact of the Ferrara acquisition.

F&E 本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 8.7%，達到 1,820 萬美元，主要是由於材料成本降低、製造效率提高、我們最近收購的公司以及費拉拉收購的影響所致。

Going forward, we see continued strength in our Fire & Emergency business from continued increased and steady demand in both fire and ambulance markets.

展望未來，由於消防和救護車市場需求的持續成長和穩定，我們的消防和緊急救援業務將持續強勁。

As showed on Slide 9, in our Commercial segment, quarterly sales were up 1.5%, primarily from higher unit sales in all segment product categories, excluding school bus.

如投影片 9 所示，在我們的商業部門，季度銷售額增加了 1.5%，主要是由於所有細分產品類別（不包括校車）的單位銷售額增加。

Commercial adjusted EBITDA was down $3.7 million for the quarter.

本季商業調整後 EBITDA 下降 370 萬美元。

The decrease in -- is primarily due to lower school bus sales, and a shift of the mix of transit bus unit shipments in the quarter, which tend to skew the numbers significantly due to the dollars involved.

下降主要是由於校車銷售下降以及本季公車巴士單位出貨量結構的變化，由於涉及的美元，這往往會導致數字顯著偏差。

In addition, we incurred some one-time costs during the first quarter to support manufacturing process improvements at one of our shuttle bus facilities.

此外，我們在第一季產生了一些一次性成本，以支持我們的一個班車設施的製造流程改善。

We believe the end markets in the Commercial segment remain strong, and we believe our margins will increase through added scale and improvement in shuttle bus sales growth, and a full year benefit of actions taken in fiscal 2017, and the first quarter of 2018.

我們相信商業領域的終端市場依然強勁，我們相信，透過擴大規模和班車銷售成長的改善，以及2017 財年和2018 年第一季採取的行動帶來的全年效益，我們的利潤率將會增加。

Turning to Slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

Quarterly sales in Recreation segment grew 32% to $167.2 million.

休閒部門的季度銷售額成長 32%，達到 1.672 億美元。

This increase was partially offset by a managed decrease in volume of Class A units and increased promotional activity to older models prior to new model introduction in the second quarter.

這一增長被 A-Class 銷量的有控制減少以及第二季度新車型推出之前舊車型促銷活動的增加所部分抵消。

We exited the quarter with segment backlog up 95% to $283 million, up from the end of fiscal year 2017.

本季結束時，該部門的積壓訂單比 2017 財年末成長了 95%，達到 2.83 億美元。

This significant increase in backlog was positively impacted by the acquired totals backlogs in the Lance Camper business.

積壓訂單的顯著增加受到了 Lance Camper 業務中所收購的積壓訂單總數的正面影響。

Recreation adjusted EBITDA increased to 194% for the quarter to $8.2 million.

本季娛樂調整後 EBITDA 成長 194%，達到 820 萬美元。

The expansion and profitability is attributable to higher unit volumes, product mix and continued benefit from ongoing operating initiatives in addition to the results from acquired companies.

除了被收購公司的業績外，擴張和盈利能力還歸因於更高的單位銷售、產品組合以及持續營運計劃的持續收益。

Looking ahead, the end markets for Recreation remain very strong, as customer demand across many demographic groups continues to embrace the RV lifestyle.

展望未來，休閒的終端市場仍然非常強勁，因為許多人口群體的客戶需求繼續接受房車生活方式。

Now I'll turn to our balance sheet.

現在我要談談我們的資產負債表。

Total debt at January 31, 2018, was $372.3 million net of deferred financing cost, or 39% of total capital.

截至 2018 年 1 月 31 日，扣除遞延融資成本後的總債務為 3.723 億美元，佔總資本的 39%。

As a result, we had $143 million available under our ABL revolving credit facility, which was amended to increase its borrowing capacity to $450 million in December of 2017.

因此，我們的 ABL 循環信貸安排下有 1.43 億美元的可用資金，並於 2017 年 12 月進行了修訂，將借款能力提高至 4.5 億美元。

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $13.6 million compared to $18.1 million in the first quarter of 2017.

本季的資本支出為 1,360 萬美元，而 2017 年第一季的資本支出為 1,810 萬美元。

We are now projecting that capital expenditures for the year will be in the range of $40 million to $45 million versus our original guidance of approximately $50 million.

我們現在預計今年的資本支出將在 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元之間，而我們最初的指導約為 5000 萬美元。

From a balance sheet standpoint, we still expect to realize improvements in our management of working capital, positive free cash flow, and net debt reduction in fiscal 2018, before the impact of any future acquisitions.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們仍然期望在任何未來收購影響之前，在 2018 財年實現營運資金管理、正自由現金流和淨債務削減的改善。

In addition, we have adequate liquidity, low leverage, and access to external markets that will be the fuel to grow for our growth initiatives for the foreseeable future.

此外，我們擁有充足的流動性、低槓桿率和進入外部市場的機會，這將成為我們在可預見的未來成長計畫的成長動力。

Lastly, I'd like to update our outlook for our full year effective tax rate based on our first quarter results.

最後，我想根據第一季的業績更新我們對全年有效稅率的展望。

We now expect our full fiscal year effective tax rate to be in the range of 16% to 18% including the one-time benefit realized in the first quarter, and we expect our normalized rate for the year, excluding this one-time benefit, to be in the range of 24% to 26%.

我們現在預計整個財年的有效稅率將在 16% 至 18% 的範圍內，包括第一季實現的一次性福利，並且我們預計今年的標準化稅率，不包括這一一次性福利，範圍為24 % 至26%。

I'll now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Jamie Cook。

I guess, just a question.

我想，只是一個問題。

Is there any way you can help us with, sort of, how do we think about the cadence of earnings throughout the year, given the weaker first quarter start, which, I know you guys had guided to that, but I think people are just trying to get comfortable with how we get to the full year numbers, because it implies a pretty significant margin ramp?

鑑於第一季開局較弱，你們有什麼辦法可以幫助我們，我們如何看待全年的盈利節奏，我知道你們已經引導了這一點，但我認為人們只是試圖熟悉我們如何獲得全年數據，因為這意味著相當顯著的利潤率上升？

So any help there would be great.

所以任何幫助都會很棒。

Yes.

是的。

We've talked about that a lot, Jamie.

我們已經討論過很多次了，傑米。

I think some of the issues that we're going to have every single year is, about 30% of our earnings are in Q1 and Q2, with 70% coming in Q3 and Q4.

我認為我們每年都會遇到的一些問題是，大約 30% 的收入出現在第一季和第二季度，70% 的收入出現在第三和第四季。

And you saw that last year, and you saw that the year before that when we were putting all the information together for the IPO.

去年你就看到了這一點，前年我們為 IPO 整理所有資訊時也看到了這一點。

It's the nature of what we are.

這是我們的本質。

And I think that you got kind of a double whammy.

我認為你受到了雙重打擊。

You've got everything that happens between November and January, with holiday periods, hunting seasons, vacations, catch-up.

十一月到一月之間發生的一切，包括假期、狩獵季節、休假、補習。

And then you also have, kind of, the timing of when our orders come in during the year.

然後，您還可以了解一年中我們的訂單到達的時間。

It is what it is.

就是這樣。

I mean, it's -- I think, probably, the right percentage and I don't see that changing anytime soon, is a 30/70 split.

我的意思是，我認為這可能是正確的百分比，而且我認為這種情況不會很快改變，即 30/70 的比例。

Look at the 30% in the first 2Qs and the rest in the other quarters.

看看前兩個季度的 30% 和其他季度的其餘部分。

We actually talked about, several months ago, should we change our fiscal year to, kind of, spread this thing out a little bit?

事實上，我們幾個月前就討論過，我們是否應該改變我們的財政年度，以便將這件事分散一點？

But it is what it is, and it's going to be that way for a long time, I'm afraid.

但事實就是如此，而且恐怕會持續很長一段時間。

Okay.

好的。

And then, sorry, just within Commercial, you call out one-time charges associated with improvements at the shuttle bus facility.

然後，抱歉，就在 Commercial 中，您提出了與接駁車設施改善相關的一次性費用。

Can you just help us, can you just quantify how big that was?

你能幫助我們嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Dollars wise, what was it?

就美元而言，那是什麼？

About $1 million, and it was for our Imlay City operations in Michigan.

大約 100 萬美元，用於我們在密西根州伊姆萊市的業務。

One of the things we're doing with shuttle is trying to really improve our efficiencies, get our costs downs.

我們對太空梭所做的事情之一就是努力真正提高我們的效率，並降低我們的成本。

The market price is the market price.

市場價格就是市場價格。

And it's a challenging market for us.

這對我們來說是一個充滿挑戰的市場。

But we have to make sure that we do what we can to get our cost down.

但我們必須確保盡我們所能降低成本。

And the quarter was really unusual.

這個季度確實很不尋常。

Actually, shuttle bus was up.

其實，接駁車已經到了。

The usual good performers of school bus and transit buses were the ones that kind of let us down in the first quarter.

校車和公車巴士通常表現良好，但在第一季卻讓我們失望了。

And it was really a little bit of a soft quarter for school bus.

對於校車來說，這個季度確實有點疲軟。

But transit buses, if you miss 4 or 5 transit buses in a quarter, that's big dollars.

但是公車，如果你在一個季度內錯過了 4 或 5 趟公車，那就是一筆巨款了。

And that really affected the Commercial performance of the quarter.

這確實影響了本季的商業業績。

But we're going to keep pushing on shuttle.

但我們將繼續推動太空梭的發展。

We -- we're dedicated to make sure that, that thing gets very profitable for us.

我們——我們致力於確保這件事對我們來說非常有利可圖。

Our next question is from Andy Casey from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的安迪凱西。

Kind of a question back in line with Jamie's question.

這個問題與傑米的問題一致。

We're starting to see some lengthening in order-to-delivery lead times from some of your chassis providers.

我們開始看到一些底盤供應商的訂單到交貨週期有所延長。

First, are you seeing that?

首先，你看到了嗎？

And then, if so, does that further impact the timing of how you expect to achieve the updated '18 goals?

那麼，如果是這樣，這是否會進一步影響您期望如何實現更新的 18 目標的時間表？

It's a current situation that we hope does not get worse.

這是目前的情況，我們希望不會變得更糟。

But for instance, Mercedes Sprinter chassis have not been EPA approved yet.

但例如，Mercedes Sprinter 底盤尚未獲得 EPA 批准。

So there's a bit of delay in receiving those.

因此，接收這些資訊會有一點延遲。

We do work off a backlog of chassis.

我們確實解決了積壓的機殼問題。

So in the near term, by near term I mean, our second quarter, we're fine.

所以在短期內，我的意思是，我們的第二季度，我們很好。

But as you can imagine, with our backend-loaded plan, we need a lot of chassis in here in Q3 and Q4.

但正如您可以想像的那樣，根據我們的後端加載計劃，我們在第三季和第四季需要大量底盤。

So we have time to react to it.

所以我們有時間對此做出反應。

But there's noise with GM also.

但通用汽車也有噪音。

There's a little bit noise with Ford.

福特有一點噪音。

It's something that we manage on a regular basis.

這是我們定期管理的事情。

But we've got some time to react, and we plan to.

但我們有一些時間可以做出反應，並且我們計劃這樣做。

But right now, we don't see that that's going to negatively impact our fiscal year.

但目前，我們認為這不會對我們的財政年度產生負面影響。

Okay, Tim.

好的，提姆。

And then in the context of higher input costs that could affect some of the component purchases and even some of those chassis purchases, can you, kind of, remind us about how you price your products, and if you're expecting the -- what appears to be a rising material cost environment to impact your ability to achieve the margin expectations not only this year but next year?

然後，在較高的投入成本可能會影響某些組件採購甚至某些機箱採購的情況下，您能否提醒我們您如何為產品定價，以及您是否期望 - 什麼材料成本上漲的環境似乎會影響您不僅今年而且明年實現利潤率預期的能力？

Yes.

是的。

This is a top question of everyone in the last few days.

這是這幾天大家最關心的問題。

Steel and aluminum, which, obviously, are the topics of the day, are less than 5% of our direct spend.

鋼鐵和鋁顯然是當今的熱門話題，但它們只占我們直接支出的不到 5%。

And the vast majority, I mean, a very high percentage of what we buy in both steel and aluminum, we get from U.S. suppliers.

我的意思是，我們購買的鋼鐵和鋁材中的絕大多數都是從美國供應商那裡獲得的。

So our exposure to foreign suppliers of steel or aluminum is very low.

因此，我們對外國鋼鐵或鋁供應商的曝險非常低。

And our actual percentage of our total material cost is very low as well.

我們的實際材料成本佔總材料成本的比例也非常低。

And the other plus that we do have is, we've got aluminum pricing locked in for the remainder of this year.

我們確實擁有的另一個好處是，我們已經鎖定了今年剩餘時間的鋁價。

And we've been doing that the last couple of years in aluminum, just because we wanted to make sure that we didn't succumb to some volatility there.

過去幾年我們一直在鋁業這樣做，只是因為我們想確保我們不會屈服於鋁業的一些波動。

The bigger issues is the one that you really addressed, and that's the chassis.

更大的問題是您真正解決的問題，那就是底盤。

We will be extremely diligent on chassis' costs as we move through fiscal 2018.

2018 財年，我們將非常關注底盤成本。

That's where we're going to see the issues.

這就是我們要看到問題的地方。

The good news is, I think, is, we can stay ahead of those, we purchase far enough in advance.

我認為好消息是，我們可以保持領先地位，我們提前足夠的時間購買。

And if you understand how chassis work, it's kind of a -- it's a pool effect that we buy into.

如果你了解底盤的工作原理，你會發現這是我們所認同的集體效應。

So we have warnings of any cost adjustments on chassis well in advance of what's happening.

因此，我們在發生任何事情之前就已經發出了有關底盤成本調整的警告。

But we're going to be diligent.

但我們會很努力。

That's where we're going to see it, if we see it anywhere.

如果我們在任何地方看到它，那就是我們將會看到它的地方。

And we want to make sure that we stay ahead of that game.

我們希望確保我們在這場比賽中保持領先。

Our next question is from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

This is Ben Burud on for Jerry.

我是本布魯德 (Ben Burud) 替傑瑞 (Jerry) 發言。

I was just hoping you guys could give us an update on your shuttle bus platform, strategically, from a high level.

我只是希望你們能夠從戰略上從高層向我們介紹你們的班車平台的最新情況。

Just wondering how the industry has been doing with your higher-end product, and if you guys are making any strategic decisions to go downmarket?

只是想知道該行業對你們的高端產品的表現如何，你們是否正在做出任何進入低端市場的策略決策？

We're definitely not going downmarket.

我們絕對不會進入低端市場。

That's not where our strength is.

那不是我們的強項。

Our strength is building fully crash-tested quality shuttle buses.

我們的優勢是製造經過全面碰撞測試的優質接駁車。

And that's what we'll continue to do.

這就是我們將繼續做的事情。

The market's strong, I mean, there's not been any pullback in the shuttle bus market, whatsoever.

我的意思是，市場很強勁，無論如何，班車市場都沒有出現任何回檔。

What -- as I mentioned on previous question, the answer to the previous question is, we just have to make sure that we work diligently to get our costs in line to make sure that we can continue to sell to the customers that want to buy a quality shuttle bus and make the margins that we expect to make.

正如我在上一個問題中提到的，上一個問題的答案是，我們只需要確保我們努力工作，使我們的成本保持一致，以確保我們可以繼續向想要購買的客戶銷售產品優質的班車並賺取我們期望的利潤。

But we're not making any dramatic changes to our product offerings in that area, with the exception of, if we come out with a low-floor option, which is what we did recently on school bus that also has an opportunity in commercial bus, in shuttle bus, those things we'll continue to do.

但我們不會對我們在該領域的產品提供任何重大改變，除非我們推出低地板選項，這就是我們最近在校車上所做的，在商用巴士上也有機會，在班車上，這些事情我們會繼續做。

But as far as moving downmarket, we have no intention to do that.

但就轉向低端市場而言，我們無意這樣做。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, within F&E, I was hoping to get some more color between ambulance and fire engine pricing.

然後，在 F&E 內部，我希望在救護車和消防車定價之間獲得更多的色彩。

Can you, kind of, give us some color on how those 2 are shaping up within the segment?

您能給我們一些關於這兩個在該細分市場中的發展的資訊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'll -- the prices go up every year on both segments, and it's really tied to our material cost increases, our labor increases, that sort of thing.

我會——這兩個領域的價格每年都在上漲，這實際上與我們的材料成本增加、勞動力增加等有關。

I think we're very pleased with the disciplines within the Fire & Emergency markets.

我認為我們對消防和緊急市場的紀律非常滿意。

I think they're mature markets with the ability to adjust to cost increases, as we do have them.

我認為它們是成熟的市場，有能力適應成本增加，就像我們擁有的那樣。

And so that continues, and that will continue to go at a pace that makes sense to our end-users.

這樣的情況會持續下去，並且會繼續以對我們的最終用戶有意義的速度發展。

They understand when we have price increases, why we have those price increases.

他們了解我們何時漲價，以及為何會漲價。

But it's a very stable, mature industry that we work in.

但我們所從事的行業是一個非常穩定、成熟的行業。

And you can see that, obviously, from the results as well, every quarter.

顯然，您也可以從每個季度的結果中看到這一點。

Got it.

知道了。

And just that -- maybe get a little bit more granular, can you maybe quantify or just give magnitudes of which of the 2 is seeing stronger pricing?

只是——也許更具體一點，你能量化或只是給出兩者中哪一個定價更強勁的幅度嗎？

I would just guess, with the consolidation we've seen in Fire that Fire would be, probably, outgrowing or outperforming ambulance from a pricing perspective, at least?

我只是猜測，隨著我們在 Fire 中看到的整合，至少從定價角度來看，Fire 的成長或表現可能會超過救護車？

Yes.

是的。

No, they're actually pretty comparable.

不，它們實際上非常具有可比性。

And I think we're at that point now where we've got, I think, the correct pricing levels in the marketplace.

我認為我們現在已經達到了市場上正確的定價水平。

So the pricing increases you're seeing at Fire & Emergency are more inflationary related to material and labor.

因此，您在消防和緊急事件中看到的價格上漲與材料和勞動力相關的通貨膨脹更大。

Where we're seeing an advantage from our standpoint, though is, and we have 3 fire apparatus companies, and we can get sourcing benefits from a larger scale that also helps improve our margins without really doing anything abnormally large on pricing.

不過，從我們的角度來看，我們看到了一個優勢，我們有3 家消防設備公司，我們可以從更大的規模中獲得採購優勢，這也有助於提高我們的利潤率，而無需在定價上真正做任何異常大的事情。

But pricing is right now at more at an inflationary level.

但目前的定價更處於通膨水準。

Our next question is from Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

Tim, I -- I'm still struggling a little bit, be honest with you, with the earnings progression here and how we're supposed to be thinking about it.

蒂姆，我 - 老實說，我仍然有點掙扎，這裡的盈利進展以及我們應該如何考慮它。

You're talking about a 30/70 split due to seasonality.

您正在談論由於季節性原因而進行的 30/70 分割。

If I look back, in the last 3 years, you've typically been around 35% to 38% of full year earnings or EBITDA that was generated in the front half, but now we're only looking for 30%.

如果我回顧一下，在過去 3 年裡，上半年產生的全年收益或 EBITDA 的 35% 到 38% 左右，但現在我們只尋找 30%。

So I guess, 2 things.

所以我想，有兩件事。

Can you maybe delineate some of the one-time costs or some of the unique items that impacted Q1 that will go away on a go-forward basis?

您能否描述一些一次性成本或一些影響第一季的獨特項目，這些項目將在未來的基礎上消失？

And then, also, maybe help us understand why there seems to be a shift in the seasonality of these earnings.

然後，也許還可以幫助我們理解為什麼這些收益的季節性似乎發生了變化。

Because even if we're talking about 5%, it's still a meaningful number moving from the first half to the second versus, at least, observed history.

因為即使我們談論的是 5%，至少與觀察到的歷史相比，從上半場到下半場的變化仍然是一個有意義的數字。

Yes.

是的。

It's -- and that's probably the float that you're probably going to see, 30% to 35%.

這可能就是你可能會看到的浮動，30% 到 35%。

It's not immaterial, but it's not huge either, I guess.

它不是無關緊要的，但我想它也不是很大。

We did have some unusual things in the first quarter that we somewhat anticipated and budgeted for.

我們在第一季確實發生了一些不尋常的事情，這些事情是我們預期和預算的。

And that's why when we said that we hit our number, we did.

這就是為什麼當我們說我們達到了目標時，我們就做到了。

But we have the -- obviously, the costs of closing out the JV, the costs involved in the Daimler situation, those things are not free to accomplish those.

但顯然，我們有關閉合資企業的成本，戴姆勒情況所涉及的成本，這些事情並不是免費完成的。

We have the costs for the Lance acquisition.

我們有收購 Lance 的費用。

We had some carryover costs from the acquisition of AutoAbility and what we we're doing with some of the things on site entry.

我們因收購 AutoAbility 以及我們在現場入口所做的一些事情而產生了一些結轉成本。

So it was a tough quarter, I mean, but we anticipated that.

我的意思是，這是一個艱難的季度，但我們預料到了這一點。

We had some unusual one-time expenses that went into the quarter that last year were in the second quarter.

去年第二季度，我們有一些不尋常的一次性支出進入該季度。

And that's why we kind of grew Q1, Q2, because they're equally, kind of, challenging quarters to make sure that we hit our numbers.

這就是為什麼我們在第一季和第二季有所成長，因為它們同樣具有挑戰性，以確保我們達到目標。

But we hit where we thought we were.

但我們到達了我們以為的地方。

I think the surprises in the quarter, the 2 biggest surprises that had the most meaningful impact, was not shipping the transit buses that we wanted to, and that was basically due to a customer that didn't show up to do their inspections.

我認為本季的驚喜，即具有最有意義影響的兩個最大驚喜，不是運送我們想要的公車巴士，這基本上是由於客戶沒有出現進行檢查。

And we can't ship if they don't inspect and sign off on the product.

如果他們不檢查並簽署產品，我們就無法發貨。

And we lost -- loss -- we had a move, a handful of large aerials out of Ferrara into Q2.

我們輸了——輸了——我們採取了行動，從費拉拉進入了第二季。

Those 2 things by themselves can swing EBITDA by $1 million to $1.5 million in a quarter.

這兩件事本身就可以在一個季度內將 EBITDA 增加 100 萬至 150 萬美元。

So those were all big challenges in the quarter.

所以這些都是本季的巨大挑戰。

And I would tell you that we didn't really anticipate those.

我想告訴你，我們並沒有真正預料到這些。

We really expected that we would be able to ship to our targets for the quarter.

我們確實希望能夠實現本季的目標。

Other than that, the additional costs and expenses, we all -- we had all budgeted those in.

除此之外，額外的成本和開支，我們都已經列入預算了。

And we actually made a little extra money in some of the other areas to, kind of, mitigate to some extent, the shift in timing of the shipments at Ferrara and ENC.

事實上，我們在其他一些領域賺了一些額外的錢，以在一定程度上緩解費拉拉和 ENC 發貨時間的變化。

I think a 5%, like I said, I don't want to say it's not a significant number, but that -- and a full year annualized basis, probably, isn't that big of a deal between first half, second half of the year, especially when the purchasing is pretty well set but not completely cast in concrete.

我認為 5%，就像我說的，我不想說這不是一個重要的數字，但是——以及全年的年化基礎，可能，上半年和下半年之間並不是什麼大不了的事今年，尤其是當採購已經確定但尚未完全澆築時。

Well, right.

嗯，對。

I can appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

But hopefully, you can appreciate my perspective here.

但希望你能理解我的觀點。

If I'm looking at your implied guidance, it implies about $42 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter at the midpoint.

如果我看一下你的隱含指導，它意味著第二季中點調整後的 EBITDA 約為 4200 萬美元。

So not knowing precisely what the revenue would be in the quarter, I'm guessing here that the margin would be, call it, 6.5, 6.4-6.5, something like that.

因此，由於不確切知道本季的收入是多少，我猜利潤率會是 6.5、6.4-6.5 之類的。

Essentially, this would be the second quarter in a row where we're really not seeing a lot of margin expansion.

從本質上講，這將是我們連續第二個季度沒有看到利潤率大幅擴張。

And I get it, that we're going to get it in the back half.

我明白了，我們將在後半場取得勝利。

But I think what we're all trying to understand is getting the level of comfort as to, what is that prevented it from happening in the front half, and what changes in the back half to a loss to get there?

但我認為我們都試圖理解的是獲得舒適度，是什麼阻止了前半場的發生，以及後半場發生了什麼變化導致了失敗？

And that's it for me.

對我來說就是這樣。

Well, first of all, you've got the numbers right, Mig.

好吧，首先，你的數字是對的，米格。

So it is what it is, I guess, from that standpoint.

我想，從這個角度來看，事情就是這樣。

It's a challenging story.

這是一個具有挑戰性的故事。

I think we understand that.

我想我們明白這一點。

It's -- in many respects, it's kind of a leap of faith.

從很多方面來說，這是一種信仰的飛躍。

And the last 2 years, we've demonstrated that the third and fourth quarters are going to do what they're going to do.

在過去的兩年裡，我們已經證明第三和第四季將實現他們將要做的事情。

But it's a challenging story.

但這是一個具有挑戰性的故事。

I mean, the first half -- to have that differentiation between a first half of a year and the second half of a year is highly unusual, incredibly unusual.

我的意思是，上半年——上半年和下半年之間存在這種差異是非常不尋常的，非常不尋常。

And it's just, kind of, the nature of our portfolio today.

這在某種程度上就是我們今天投資組合的本質。

And it's going to stay that way until we do something different, I think, as far as breakup the mix, add a fourth leg to the stool, that may not have a seasonality that we've got with our current portfolio.

我認為，這種情況將保持下去，直到我們做一些不同的事情，直到打破這種組合，在凳子上添加第四條腿，這可能沒有我們目前的投資組合所具有的季節性。

Our next question is from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

So I guess, my first question is around the Recreation backlog.

所以我想，我的第一個問題是關於娛樂積壓的。

So I know that a lot of the growth that you saw in the backlog during the quarter came from the acquisitions that you've done.

所以我知道，您在本季看到的積壓訂單的成長很大一部分來自於您所做的收購。

Could you just talk a little bit about what the backlog would have looked like without acquisitions, like, is it still growing substantially?

您能否簡單談談如果沒有收購的話，積壓的訂單會是什麼樣子，比如，它是否仍在大幅增長？

Yes.

是的。

It's -- that's, kind of, a hard one.

這有點困難。

That's the discussion we've been having at our board meeting yesterday.

這是我們昨天在董事會會議上進行的討論。

We're really trying to determine what's organic versus inorganic, and backlog is a great example of trying to differentiate.

我們確實在努力確定什麼是有機的，什麼是無機的，而積壓訂單就是嘗試區分的一個很好的例子。

We've doubled our backlogs at Midwest and Renegade.

我們將中西部和叛徒的積壓訂單增加了一倍。

We actually had, believe it or not, in the short ownership of only a couple of weeks, we actually, positively affected backlog at Lance.

不管你信不信，在短短幾週的所有權內，我們實際上對蘭斯的積壓訂單產生了積極的影響。

And the question really is, what would those have been without REV?

真正的問題是，如果沒有 REV，這些會怎麼樣？

And the answer is, there would have been something there but would've been -- would they have doubled their backlog?

答案是，本來會有一些東西，但他們的積壓訂單會增加一倍嗎？

Absolutely not.

絕對不是。

So how much is organic versus inorganic?

那麼有機物與無機物的比例是多少呢？

And then, when you look at our traditional business, which, obviously, is purely organic, it was up.

然後，當你看看我們的傳統業務時，它顯然是純粹的有機業務，它已經上升了。

It was up significantly in the quarter.

本季大幅上漲。

And that really had to do, I think, with some of the new products that we introduced back in September, and some of the orders that we took after the Louisville show, the first week in December.

我認為，這確實與我們在 9 月推出的一些新產品以及我們在 12 月第一周路易斯維爾展會後收到的一些訂單有關。

But we're up across all of RV.

但我們已經了解了所有房車。

We're up significantly in our traditional A business.

我們的傳統 A 類業務大幅成長。

And really, these acquisitions have really loaded the backlog in nicely as well.

事實上，這些收購也確實很好地解決了積壓問題。

They all rolled into the first quarter with a pretty good head of steam, and we just took up even higher.

他們都帶著相當好的動力進入第一季度，而我們的表現甚至更高。

Okay, Tim.

好的，提姆。

And then, I guess, same segment, Recreation, that was an area where margins looked pretty good this quarter.

然後，我想，同一細分市場，娛樂領域，本季的利潤率看起來相當不錯。

So I guess, can that level of year-over-year improvement be sustained beyond 1Q?

所以我想，這種年比改善水準能否持續到第一季之後？

Or was there anything that drove the margin improvement in the first quarter that isn't sustainable in 2Q and beyond?

或者是否有什麼因素推動了第一季利潤率的提高，但在第二季及以後無法持續？

Yes.

是的。

Sustainable and improving.

可持續且不斷改進。

The block-end tackling, particular indicator, and they're starting to pay off.

區塊端搶斷，特別是指標，他們開始得到回報。

We've really focused on -- the 3 areas and let me just step aside for a minute and say, the 3 areas where we're underperforming on margin are Decatur, our mobility vans and shuttle bus.

我們真正關注的是這 3 個領域，讓我先說一下，我們在利潤率方面表現不佳的 3 個領域是迪凱特、我們的行動貨車和接駁車。

And we are absolutely laser focused on those 3 areas to get those margins up.

我們絕對專注於這三個領域，以提高利潤率。

So not only is it sustainable, we hope you -- to show you some improvement, as we continue to move through to the end of the year.

因此，它不僅是可持續的，而且我們希望您能夠在我們繼續邁向年底的過程中向您展示一些改進。

Your next question is from Charley Brady from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 的 Charley Brady。

Tim, just to clarify on the delayed shipments in Ferrara, the Aerials and the transit buses, have those slipped into Q2 or beyond?

提姆，我想澄清一下費拉拉、空中飛機和公車巴士的延遲發貨，這些是否已推遲到第二季或之後？

No, Q2.

不，Q2。

Yes, the sad part about the story is, they literally shipped a couple of days after the end of Q1.

是的，這個故事令人悲傷的部分是，他們實際上是在第一季結束後幾天就發貨了。

So they're gone.

所以他們走了。

They're shipped.

他們已發貨。

They're in -- they're already in the bank.

他們已經在銀行了。

So it was really -- you always hate to use timing as an excuse, but when we have to get sign-off from dealers and customers, it, kind of, we really have to manage that precisely, and we missed it.

所以，你總是討厭用時機作為藉口，但是當我們必須得到經銷商和客戶的簽字時，我們真的必須精確地管理這一點，但我們錯過了。

But they're gone.

但他們走了。

All right.

好的。

And just on Fire & Emergency -- I'm sorry, on Recreation.

剛才是關於火災和緊急情況的——對不起，是關於娛樂的。

You had Renegade, and you broke it out, the acquisition impact in the Q. Renegade's in there for 2 months incremental and then, obviously, the third month of January is an incremental to -- when you owned it.

你有Renegade，你把它爆發出來，Q.Renegade 的收購影響持續了兩個月的增量，然後，顯然，一月份的第三個月是你擁有它時的增量。

So I'm just trying to -- if can back up the other 2, I'm trying to get to an organic growth number in the quarter for Recreation.

所以我只是想——如果可以支持其他兩個，我想在本季度實現娛樂方面的有機增長。

But I, obviously, don't have the monthly split by Renegade.

但顯然，我沒有叛逆者的每月分成。

Can you give us a sense of what the organic number might look like for Recreation in the quarter?

您能否讓我們了解本季娛樂產業的有機數字是怎麼樣的？

Yes.

是的。

Well, to give you this as an example on Renegade, since you used it, we effectively doubled the shipments in January from a year ago for Renegade.

好吧，以 Renegade 為例，自從您使用它以來，我們實際上將 Renegade 一月份的發貨量比一年前增加了一倍。

That's the kind of momentum that we've got built up with that new asset.

這就是我們透過新資產建立起來的動力。

These new assets that we're picking up are just amazing.

我們正在收購的這些新資產真是太棒了。

We had probably -- did not fully appreciate the value of bringing them under the REV umbrella, and what that really meant to us.

我們可能 - 沒有完全意識到將它們納入 REV 保護傘下的價值，以及這對我們真正意味著什麼。

But Renegade, the shipments were doubled, January-to-January.

但 Renegade 的出貨量從一月到一月翻了一番。

So that's kind of the momentum you're going to see, going forward.

這就是你將看到的前進勢頭。

Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的考特尼·亞卡沃尼斯。

Just piggy backing on that question, just wondering if you could break out the organic growth for us in F&E this quarter?

只是支持這個問題，只是想知道您是否可以在本季度為我們帶來F＆E的有機增長？

It's -- we're not trying to be evasive, it's really hard, primarily due to the fact that where do you do it?

我們不是想迴避，這真的很難，主要是因為你在哪裡做這件事？

I mean, where do you start?

我的意思是，你從哪裡開始？

How do we -- do we just take E-ONE as our organic growth, or do you add Ferrara in there and KME on a basis?

我們如何——我們只是將 E-ONE 作為我們的有機增長，還是在此基礎上添加 Ferrara 和 KME？

We're kind of really struggling and to -- and again, we're not trying to be evasive, we're really trying to figure that out.

我們真的很掙扎，而且，我們不是想迴避，而是真的想解決這個問題。

But it's really, really hard to do.

但這真的非常非常難做到。

Once these things get loaded in, we integrate immediately.

一旦這些東西被加載，我們立即整合。

So the 2 biggest things that happened with the -- an acquisition is, we start getting our sourcing in there immediately.

因此，收購中發生的兩件最重要的事情是，我們立即開始在那裡進行採購。

So -- and these are meaningful dollars of additional EBITDA.

因此，這些都是有意義的額外 EBITDA。

So how much of that would have happened without them joining REV?

那麼，如果他們沒有加入 REV，會發生多少這樣的事情呢？

Well, we can guess, we can give you an estimate.

好吧，我們可以猜測，我們可以給你一個估計。

Where would the backlogs be?

積壓的訂單會在哪裡？

The fact that they're part of REV now is really -- is one of those things where they've gotten the advantage of being part of a bigger company.

事實上，他們現在已經成為 REV 的一部分，這確實是他們獲得成為更大公司一部分的優勢的原因之一。

So it's -- again, we're not trying to be evasive.

所以，我們不想迴避。

We're just kind of a having a hard time getting our hands around it.

我們只是很難掌握它。

It all, kind of, starts to meld into all the numbers that we do have.

這一切都開始融入我們現有的所有數字中。

So do you have it on a top line basis, but not necessarily on the EBITDA basis?

那麼，您是否以營收為基礎，但不一定以 EBITDA 為基礎？

It's actually -- it's the same thing.

事實上，這是同一件事。

We spent 1.5 hours at the board meeting talking about this subject, because the board is asking the same types of questions.

我們在董事會會議上花了 1.5 個小時討論這個主題，因為董事會也在問同樣類型的問題。

And we really -- we're not -- again, where do you start?

我們真的——我們不是——再說一次，你從哪裡開始？

Where do you stop?

你在哪裡停下來？

Where does the top line change?

頂線在哪裡變化？

And how much of that was part of the REV umbrella versus being separate?

其中有多少是 REV 保護傘的一部分而不是獨立的？

I mean, we've picked up new business, new accounts at both KME and Ferrara that they didn't sell to before.

我的意思是，我們在 KME 和費拉拉都獲得了新業務、新客戶，而他們以前沒有賣給這些客戶。

Would they have sold to them with or without REV.

他們會在有或沒有 REV 的情況下賣給他們嗎？

I'd argue, they probably wouldn't.

我會說，他們可能不會。

But they may say they did.

但他們可能會說他們做到了。

E-ONE has been steady shipped, growing organically, quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, all 3 fire apparatus businesses that we have right now are sold out through the end of our fiscal year.

E-ONE 的出貨量一直穩定，逐季、逐年有機成長，我們目前擁有的所有 3 項消防設備業務到本財年末均已售罄。

So that's just the demand that we do have.

這就是我們確實有的需求。

Again, Courtney, not trying to be evasive.

再次強調，考特尼，並沒有試圖迴避。

We had a big discussion about that at the board level yesterday, and we start to lose track of -- we start to guess, and we don't want to guess.

昨天我們在董事會層面對此進行了一次大討論，但我們開始忘記——我們開始猜測，但我們不想猜測。

It's -- we can estimate.

我們可以估計。

But even then, where do you cut it off, and where you say that this was because of this and because of that?

但即便如此，你在哪裡切斷它，你在哪裡說這是因為這個、因為那個？

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

And then just on the 30%, 70% split, is that applicable to all 3 segments, or would you expect any differences between the 3?

然後，就 30%、70% 的劃分而言，這是否適用於所有 3 個細分市場，或者您認為這 3 個細分市場之間存在任何差異？

No, there's differences.

不，有差異。

The buying seasons are a little bit different.

購買季節略有不同。

But they're -- the buying seasons are set.

但購買季節已經確定。

And let me give you an example, so you can maybe understand that.

讓我給你舉個例子，這樣你也許就能理解。

There's effectively 3 buying seasons for RV.

房車實際上有 3 個購買季節。

It's September at the Open House in Elkhart, it's Louisville, and that's in the first week of December, and that's just, kind of, carryover from the Elkhart Open House, and then you've got April, the new -- the basically the new year introduction for the new coaches across the industry.

這是埃爾克哈特開放日的九月，路易斯維爾，那是十二月的第一周，這只是埃爾克哈特開放日的延續，然後是四月，新的——基本上是為整個產業的新教練介紹新年。

And so you've got -- those are the purchasing cycles for RV.

這些就是房車的購買週期。

And so it gets into its own cadence.

因此它進入了自己的節奏。

Fire really starts to happen in a very meaningful way in the calendar third quarter, which is really, kind of, in our fourth quarter, and it really has to do with when budgets are approved with municipalities, and they're not all the same, so there's a little bit of a different cadence there.

在日曆的第三季度，火災確實開始以一種非常有意義的方式發生，這實際上是在我們的第四季度，這確實與市政當局批准預算的時間有關，而且它們並不完全相同，所以節奏有一點不同。

School is very definitive.

學校是非常明確的。

I mean, we're just going into the buying season now for school.

我的意思是，我們現在剛剛進入學校的購買季節。

And the harder part about school, we're here in March, and the orders will start happening in April, and they expect their school buses on the ground by the end of August.

關於學校的更困難的部分是，我們在三月來到這裡，訂單將於四月開始，他們預計校車將在八月底到達地面。

So that's a very definitive period of time as well.

所以這也是一個非常明確的時間段。

They're all different.

他們都是不同的。

Ambulances tends to be a little bit more steady than Fire, just for the fact that the expenditure is not as large as a fire apparatus.

救護車往往比消防車穩定一點，只是費用不像消防車那麼大。

So that tends to be a little bit more steady.

所以這往往會更穩定一些。

But then, too, there's different budget periods of time.

但預算的時間段也不同。

And some of the big municipalities make their commitments when they've got their new budgets approved.

一些大城市在新預算獲得批准後就做出了承諾。

The other dynamic, not to confuse things, but we're really trying to convince municipalities not to buy but to lease versus buying, which will, kind of, spread that out and maybe help us out with some of the seasonality that we do see with some of these things, including fire trucks.

另一種動態，不是為了混淆事情，而是我們真的試圖說服市政當局不要購買，而是租賃而不是購買，這將在某種程度上分散這種情況，也許可以幫助我們解決我們確實看到的一些季節性問題其中一些東西，包括消防車。

The only thing about fire though is, backlogs are quite long, because the demand is high.

但關於火的唯一問題是，積壓的時間很長，因為需求很高。

So if that -- if the demand wasn't as high as what it was, we could level that off, that would be helpful to get out of our 30/70 split.

因此，如果需求沒有那麼高，我們可以將其拉平，這將有助於擺脫 30/70 的分配。

But you -- throw all that in the pot and it comes out to a 30% to 35% split, as Mig said it, it could be as high as 35%.

但如果你把所有這些都扔到底池裡，就會得到 30% 到 35% 的分成，正如 Mig 所說，可能高達 35%。

But 30/70 split, on any given year, and they're all different purchasing cadences that just, kind of, summarize down to that 30/70 split.

但是，在任何特定年份，都是 30/70 的比例，而且它們都是不同的購買節奏，只是總結為 30/70 的比例。

Our next question is from Andy Casey from Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的安迪凱西。

Got a question on the Q1 $72 million operating cash out flow.

有關於第一季 7200 萬美元營運現金流出的問題。

What's in that -- you had some, kind of, unusual variances on the working capital side.

這裡有什麼——營運資金方面有一些不尋常的差異。

And a big portion of that was driven by a $73 million accounts payable outflow.

其中很大一部分是由 7,300 萬美元的應付帳款流出造成的。

Can you provide a little bit more color on that?

你能提供更多的顏色嗎？

And then I'm just wondering if you expect positive operating cash flow in Q2?

然後我想知道您是否預計第二季營運現金流為正？

Yes.

是的。

Andy, this is Dean.

安迪，這是迪恩。

Yes, the timing of our year-end change, as you know we changed our year-end from the last Saturday to the calendar quarter end.

是的，我們年終的時間發生了變化，如您所知，我們將年終從上週六更改為日曆季度末。

So that did impact the timing of payments for accounts payable this year, one-time item and that won't recur, obviously, as we go forward.

因此，這確實影響了今年應付帳款的付款時間，這是一次性項目，顯然，隨著我們的前進，這種情況不會再發生。

So that was the primary reason.

這是主要原因。

And regarding second quarter, second quarter is still a use of cash.

而關於第二季度，第二季度仍然是現金的使用。

We're improving on our working capital metrics, but I wouldn't say we're going to have a positive free cash flow or operating cash flow in the second quarter.

我們正在改善我們的營運資本指標，但我不會說我們將在第二季度擁有正的自由現金流或營運現金流。

We generate most if not all of our cash flow in the second half at this point.

此時，我們在下半年產生了大部分（如果不是全部）現金流。

Okay, Dean.

好的，迪恩。

And would you expect to take out some short-term debt or do you have enough cash on hand to support your activities in Q2?

您是否希望償還一些短期債務，或者您手頭上是否有足夠的現金來支持您在第二季度的活動？

We have plenty of liquidity on our ABL to support our activities in Q2.

我們的 ABL 擁有充足的流動性來支持我們第二季的活動。

This concludes the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

Let's turn the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

讓我們將發言權交還給管理階層，以徵求結束語。

Well, thanks again, everyone for joining us today.

好的，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

We are where we want to be.

我們就在我們想去的地方。

We're right on track with our internal plan, we've got the highest backlog this company has seen in our short life.

我們的內部計劃正在按部就班地進行，我們的積壓訂單是該公司在我們短暫的生命中所見過的最高的。

And all of our end markets remain very strong, very steady, very strong with nothing, really, we think is going to deter those as we move through 2018.

我們所有的終端市場仍然非常強勁、非常穩定、非常強勁，實際上，我們認為在 2018 年，這將阻止這些市場的發展。

We're on track for our plan, we're on track for our guidance, and we really fully expect to continue to perform and meet that guidance.

我們正在按照我們的計劃進行，我們正在按照我們的指導進行，並且我們真的完全期望繼續執行並滿足該指導。

Thanks, again, for joining us.

再次感謝您加入我們。

I guess, we'll be talking to you, again, in early June.

我想，我們會在六月初再次與您交談。

And in the meantime, feel free to call with any other questions.

同時，如有任何其他問題，請隨時致電。

This concludes today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you, again, for your participation.

再次感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。