REV Group Inc (REVG) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the REV Group, Inc.

您好，歡迎來到 REV Group, Inc.。

Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

2019 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Drew Konop, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁德魯·科諾普 (Drew Konop)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

Last night, we issued our fourth quarter 2019 results.

昨晚，我們發布了 2019 年第四季業績。

A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.revgroup.com.

新聞稿的副本可在我們的網站 Investors.revgroup.com 上取得。

Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call.

今天的電話會議正在網路上直播，並附有幻燈片演示，其中包括我們將在本次電話會議中使用的非公認會計原則與公認會計原則財務指標的協調表。

It is also available on our website.

它也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation.

現在請參閱該簡報的幻燈片 2。

Our remarks and answers will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

我們的評論和回答將包括《私人證券訴訟改革法》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的結果有重大差異的風險。

These risks include, among others, matters that we have stated in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC last night and other filings we make with the SEC.

這些風險包括我們在昨晚向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中所述的事項。

We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務，這些前瞻性陳述可能要到我們下一次季度財報電話會議才會更新（如果有的話）。

All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year, unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，本次電話會議中所有提及的季度或年度均指我們的財務季度或財政年度。

Joining me on the call today are our President and CEO, Tim Sullivan, as well as our CFO, Dean Nolden.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tim Sullivan 以及財務長 Dean Nolden。

Please turn now to Slide 3, and I'll turn the call over to Tim.

現在請翻到投影片 3，我會將電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, Drew, and thanks, everyone, for joining us on today's call.

謝謝德魯，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

Slide 3 highlights the major themes of fiscal 2019 and sets the table for how we plan to execute and deliver the results required in fiscal 2020.

投影片 3 重點介紹了 2019 財年的主要主題，並為我們規劃如何執行和交付 2020 財年所需的結果制定了表格。

I'll start on the lower left and proceed clockwise.

我將從左下角開始，順時針方向進行。

First, we generated a good amount of cash this year.

首先，今年我們產生了大量現金。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $53 million, and we generated $24 million from the sale of assets, which provided significant cash for balanced capital allocation.

經營活動提供的淨現金為 5,300 萬美元，我們透過出售資產獲得 2,400 萬美元，為平衡資本配置提供了大量現金。

In addition to paying over $12 million of dividends, we returned over $8 million to shareholders through stock repurchases and paid down $41 million of debt during the year.

除了支付超過 1,200 萬美元的股息外，我們還透過股票回購向股東返還了超過 800 萬美元，並在這一年償還了 4,100 萬美元的債務。

Through 2019's ups and downs, we remained disciplined regarding the use of cash and plan to continue a balanced use of capital focused on debt repayment, internal investments and opportunistic share repurchase or M&A activity.

儘管2019年的風風雨雨，我們在現金使用方面仍然保持紀律，併計劃繼續平衡使用資本，重點關注債務償還、內部投資和機會性股票回購或併購活動。

The strategic review we initiated in the second half of fiscal 2019 involved a deep dive into our core markets and businesses, a detailed look into REV's value proposition, and a new focus on where we feel we can deliver shareholder value.

我們在 2019 財年下半年啟動的策略審查涉及深入研究我們的核心市場和業務、詳細研究 REV 的價值主張，以及重新關注我們認為可以為股東創造價值的領域。

This led to a decision within the quarter to sell our joint venture interest in North American motor coach distribution to our JV partner, Daimler.

這導致我們在本季決定將我們在北美客車分銷方面的合資企業權益出售給我們的合資夥伴戴姆勒。

REV Coach was able to successfully restore independent sales and service of Setra motor coaches in North America.

REV Coach 成功恢復了 Setra 客車在北美的獨立銷售和服務。

However, we mutually agreed the divestiture was a necessary step for the next phase of Daimler's plans for the North American market.

然而，我們一致認為，剝離是戴姆勒下一階段北美市場計畫的必要步驟。

Our company-wide strategic review is ongoing, but the goal has not changed.

我們全公司範圍的策略審查正在進行中，但目標並沒有改變。

We expect a viable path to 10% EBITDA margins, and we'll look to adjust the portfolio to align with our core competencies and to maximize profitability.

我們預計將有一條可行的途徑來實現 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，並且我們將尋求調整投資組合以符合我們的核心競爭力並實現盈利能力最大化。

We plan to provide an update on our long-term targets in connection with our second quarter earnings call.

我們計劃在第二季財報電話會議上提供有關長期目標的最新資訊。

2019 was a successful year for REV's product innovation and our design teams.

2019 年對於 REV 產品創新和我們的設計團隊來說是成功的一年。

At the American Ambulance Association Conference in Nashville this year, we announced several new innovative vehicles that increased crew comfort and overall functionality.

在今年納許維爾舉行的美國救護車協會會議上，我們宣布了幾款新型創新車輛，可提高機組人員的舒適度和整體功能。

We also continue to be a leader in voice of customer design of fire apparatus, with a total of 13 new product releases in fiscal 2019.

我們也持續成為消防設備客戶設計呼聲的領導者，2019 財年共發布了 13 款新產品。

In addition, our clean energy team in the specialty division achieved near 0 emissions with the release of an LNG-powered terminal truck.

此外，我們專業部門的清潔能源團隊推出了液化天然氣動力碼頭卡車，實現了近乎零排放。

And finally, several new recreational vehicles stole the show at September's Elkhart Open House by winning top design awards and new dealer wins.

最後，幾款新型休閒車在九月的埃爾克哈特開放日上大放異彩，贏得了頂級設計獎和新經銷商獎。

In all, REV had a record year of innovation with 36 new products released in fiscal 2019.

總的來說，REV 在 2019 財年發布了 36 種新產品，創下了創新紀錄。

Moving on, fiscal 2019 was a big year for the large municipal contract awards to REV.

接下來，2019 財年是 REV 獲得大型市政合約的重要一年。

Within the year, we announced several 5-year awards, including an award from Chicago Fire Department for the largest single contract for fire apparatus ever received at our E-ONE business, and a 5-year award by FDNY from New York for ambulance units out of our REV Orlando business.

年內，我們宣布了多項 5 年期獎項，包括芝加哥消防局授予我們 E-ONE 業務有史以來最大的單一消防設備合同，以及紐約 FDNY 授予的救護車單位 5 年期獎項退出我們的 REV 奧蘭多業務。

We also received a 5-year transit bus award from the suburban bus division of the regional transit authority of Chicago.

我們也獲得了芝加哥地區交通管理局郊區公車部門頒發的 5 年公車獎。

And finally, subsequent to closing fiscal 2019, we officially received a significant add-on award from L.A. County Transit.

最後，在 2019 財年結束後，我們正式獲得了洛杉磯縣交通局頒發的重要附加獎項。

The awards are major accomplishments demonstrating our partnership scale with municipalities of all sizes.

這些獎項是重大成就，展示了我們與各種規模的城市的合作規模。

I would note that neither of the municipal transit bus awards are reflected in our current commercial backlog and will be additive to backlog when orders are received, which is currently assumed to be within the first half of fiscal 2020.

我要指出的是，這兩個市政交通巴士獎都沒有反映在我們目前的商業積壓訂單中，並且在收到訂單時將增加積壓訂單，目前假設訂單在 2020 財年上半年內完成。

We spent much of the fiscal third quarter earnings call discussing 2019's operational issues and labor market constraints, primarily within the F&E segment, which resulted in a downward revision to our fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance.

我們在第三財季財報電話會議上花了很多時間討論 2019 年的營運問題和勞動力市場限制，主要是在 F&E 領域，這導致我們下調了 2019 財年 EBITDA 指引。

Today's results within F&E were largely as expected.

今天 F&E 的結果基本上符合預期。

Capacity expansion of our largest fire facility progressed throughout the fourth quarter with a new chassis line opening up on November 4. The labor churn experienced earlier in the year has stabilized at this plant, and we continue to train and integrate smaller groups of new employees to the factory floor.

我們最大的消防設施的產能擴張在整個第四季度取得了進展，一條新的底盤生產線於11 月4 日投入使用。較小的新進員工群體工廠車間。

We believe the net results of these actions within the Fire division as well as shipment against a large municipal order in Ambulance will provide an opportunity to begin recovering the EBITDA lost to operational issues within this segment in the second half of fiscal 2019.

我們相信，消防局內這些行動的最終結果以及救護車部門大型市政訂單的發貨將為我們提供一個機會，在 2019 財年下半年開始彌補該部門因運營問題而損失的 EBITDA。

In fiscal 2019, select recreation markets declined at a greater magnitude than expected as dealers destocked and inventories dropped to historic lows with the Class A product lines.

2019 財年，隨著經銷商去庫存以及 A 級產品線的庫存降至歷史低點，部分娛樂市場的下滑幅度超出預期。

While this resulted in lower-than-expected EBITDA versus our initial fiscal 2019 guidance, the team deserves recognition for taking corrective actions to limit the financial impact and navigating end markets that were not within its control.

雖然這導致 EBITDA 低於我們最初 2019 財年指引的預期，但該團隊採取糾正措施限制財務影響並開拓不受其控制的終端市場，值得認可。

Despite the challenges, all businesses within Recreation had a successful Elkhart Open house in September, which led to several industry awards and expanded distribution with new dealers in key high-volume geographies.

儘管面臨挑戰，娛樂領域的所有企業都在 9 月成功舉辦了埃爾克哈特開放日活動，獲得了多項行業獎項，並擴大了在主要高銷量地區的新經銷商的分銷範圍。

As we look to fiscal 2020, we have adjusted capacity and the cost structure to meet current demand in a market that is expected to be down mid-single digits, but we do retain the ability to flex up production if needed as we build upon these recent market successes.

展望 2020 財年，我們調整了產能和成本結構，以滿足預計將下降中個位數的市場當前需求，但我們確實保留了在需要時擴大生產的能力，因為我們在此基礎上繼續發展最近的市場成功。

Across our segments, the vast majority of our supply chain lead times and material availability have returned to normal.

在我們的各個細分市場中，絕大多數供應鏈的交貨時間和材料可用性已恢復正常。

Nevertheless, we still experience the occasional supply chain issue that negatively impacts our ability to ship product.

儘管如此，我們仍然偶爾會遇到供應鏈問題，這會對我們的產品運輸能力產生負面影響。

We do not believe that this will change entirely until the trade war comes to an end.

我們認為，在貿易戰結束之前，這種情況不會完全改變。

However, we believe we are successfully navigating trade impacts, and the net result is opportunity in fiscal 2020 to leverage the restructuring and operational changes we have made.

然而，我們相信我們正在成功應對貿易影響，最終結果是在 2020 財年有機會利用我們所做的重組和營運變革。

Now I'll turn the call over to Dean for a detailed review of the financials and outlook.

現在我將把電話轉給迪恩，詳細審查財務狀況和前景。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning.

謝謝你，提姆，早安。

As Tim discussed, we faced several challenges within fiscal 2019 and late 2018, for that matter, that resulted in consolidating earnings that were below the potential of our portfolio of businesses.

正如提姆所討論的，我們在 2019 財年和 2018 年底面臨多項挑戰，這導致合併收益低於我們業務組合的潛力。

These businesses can do much better, and on the bright side, much of the recovery to prior profitability levels and beyond is within our control.

這些企業可以做得更好，從好的方面來看，恢復到之前甚至更高的獲利水準的大部分都在我們的控制範圍內。

In addition, I was pleased that the predictability of our forecast -- forecasting improved in the fourth quarter as the underlying business results were largely as expected based upon our revised guidance.

此外，我很高興我們的預測的可預測性 - 第四季度的預測有所改善，因為基本業務結果基本上符合我們修訂後的指導的預期。

Tim mentioned one item that became more evident as we closed the year, which is an unusual amount of catastrophic medical claim costs experienced throughout fiscal 2019, having the most significant impact in the first and fourth quarters.

提姆提到了一個在我們年底時變得更加明顯的問題，即整個 2019 財年經歷的災難性醫療索賠費用的異常數額，在第一季和第四季度產生了最顯著的影響。

The first quarter impact was originally deemed to be a 1-quarter anomaly, but later, our experience in the fourth quarter codified a full year trend.

第一季的影響最初被認為是一個季度的異常，但後來，我們在第四季度的經驗總結了全年的趨勢。

The number of high dollar claims increased 55% year-over-year, amounting to approximately $7 million of total increased costs for the full year and approximately $4 million within the fourth quarter.

高額索賠數量年增 55%，全年增加的成本總額約為 700 萬美元，第四季約為 400 萬美元。

Without this recent medical experience within the quarter, we would have landed in the middle to upper half of our revised fiscal 2019 earnings guidance had these costs not been incurred.

如果沒有本季最近的醫療經驗，如果沒有發生這些費用，我們將處於修訂後的 2019 財年獲利指引的中上半部。

Starting with Slide 4, I will review our consolidated fourth quarter results and segment-level performance.

從投影片 4 開始，我將回顧我們第四季的綜合業績和部門級業績。

Consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter were $653 million, down 1% compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

第四季綜合淨銷售額為 6.53 億美元，比去年第四季下降 1%。

The decline in sales was primarily a result of lower Recreation segment shipments, partially offset by sales growth in the Commercial and the Fire & Emergency segments.

銷售額下降主要是由於娛樂細分市場出貨量下降，但部分被商業和消防與緊急細分市場的銷售成長所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $19.3 million compared to $39.4 million in the fourth quarter 2018.

2019 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,930 萬美元，而 2018 年第四季為 3,940 萬美元。

The decrease in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was driven by lower profitability within the F&E and Recreation segments mentioned earlier, partially offset by higher sales and profitability in the Commercial segment.

本季調整後 EBITDA 的下降是由於前面提到的餐飲和娛樂部門的盈利能力下降，但部分被商業部門的銷售額和盈利能力的提高所抵消。

Now please turn to Page 5 of our slide deck, as I move to a review of the performance of our segments.

現在請翻到投影片的第 5 頁，我將回顧我們各細分市場的表現。

Fire & Emergency segment sales increased by 7% to $269 million for the fiscal fourth quarter, in line with our revised expectations as the volume of Fire and Ambulance units increased from fiscal third quarter.

第四財季消防和緊急救援部門銷售額成長 7%，達到 2.69 億美元，符合我們修訂後的預期，因為消防和救護車銷量較第三財季增加。

Within Fire, sales also benefited somewhat from favorable mix to more profitable units as well as the impact from past price increases that are just beginning to cycle through our long-duration backlog.

在 Fire 內部，銷售也從一定程度上受益於利潤較高的產品的有利組合，以及過去價格上漲的影響，這些價格上漲剛開始在我們的長期積壓訂單中循環。

The total number of Ambulance units shipped within the quarter was down year-over-year.

本季救護車的總出貨量年減。

However, a favorable mix of higher-priced modular units increased sales year-over-year as we began shipping against an interim municipal order late in the quarter.

然而，隨著我們在本季末開始根據臨時市政訂單發貨，價格較高的模組化單元的有利組合使銷售額同比增長。

While the order had a small impact on the fiscal fourth quarter, it is expected to benefit the division primarily in fiscal 2020.

雖然該訂單對第四財季影響較小，但預計該部門主要在 2020 財年受益。

F&E segment adjusted EBITDA was $7.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to $18.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2018.

2019 年第四季 F&E 部門調整後 EBITDA 為 740 萬美元，而 2018 年第四季為 1,850 萬美元。

The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to a reduction in gross profit margin resulting from the previously described temporary labor inefficiencies during our ongoing efforts to increase production capacity at our largest Fire plant.

調整後 EBITDA 的下降主要是由於我們在不斷努力提高最大消防工廠的生產能力期間，由於先前描述的臨時勞動力效率低下而導致毛利率下降。

These expansion efforts are designed to decrease our growing fire apparatus backlog by several months from where it stands today.

這些擴建工作旨在將我們不斷增加的消防設備積壓數量從目前的水平減少幾個月。

Despite these near-term challenges, we have worked with our distribution and municipal partners and have not experienced any order cancellations to date.

儘管面臨這些近期挑戰，我們仍與分銷和市政合作夥伴合作，迄今尚未遇到任何訂單取消的情況。

Backlog has grown 18% year-over-year and 7% sequentially to $833 million.

積壓訂單年增 18%，季增 7%，達到 8.33 億美元。

And we expect fiscal first quarter 2020 to be a trough in F&E segment EBITDA dollars and EBITDA margins as we ramp production through the first half of fiscal 2020.

隨著我們在 2020 財年上半年提高產量，我們預計 2020 財年第一季將成為 F&E 部門 EBITDA 美元和 EBITDA 利潤率的低谷。

We anticipate the result to be an improved production cadence and absorption of the associated labor costs that we have incurred within the second half of fiscal 2020.

我們預計結果將是提高生產節奏並吸收 2020 財年下半年所產生的相關勞動成本。

We believe our backlog will decrease throughout the second half of the year as we strive to reach a shorter backlog duration.

我們相信，隨著我們努力縮短積壓持續時間，我們的積壓將在下半年減少。

Reduced shipment lead times will provide greater flexibility and competitive advantage for our businesses.

縮短出貨週期將為我們的業務提供更大的靈活性和競爭優勢。

As shown on Slide 6, in our Commercial segment, quarterly sales were up 13% compared to the prior year period, driven primarily by an increase in the number of municipal transit bus units sold compared to the prior year.

如幻燈片 6 所示，在我們的商業部門，季度銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 13%，這主要是由於市政交通巴士銷量與去年同期相比有所增加。

Production of the LA County transit bus order has progressed as expected, with a steady increase of units and quarterly sales throughout the past year.

洛杉磯縣公車巴士訂單的生產進展符合預期，去年車輛數量和季度銷售穩定成長。

School bus sales reflected typical sales seasonality, decreasing approximately 40% sequentially, but were flat with the year-over-year comparable.

校車銷售量反映了典型的銷售季節性，環比下降約 40%，但與去年同期持平。

Shuttle bus sales grew low single digits, while sales of terminal trucks and sweepers in our specialty division were down year-over-year.

班車銷量成長幅度較低，而我們專業部門的碼頭卡車和清掃車銷量較去年同期下降。

While the outlook for sweepers has improved, the softness in terminal trucks marks the first year-over-year decline for terminal trucks for the past 7 quarters, leading to a cautious view on the end market in the next year, similar to the Class 8 truck market.

雖然清掃車的前景有所改善，但碼頭卡車的疲軟標誌著過去7個季度碼頭卡車的首次同比下降，導致人們對明年的終端市場持謹慎態度，類似於8級卡車市場。

Commercial adjusted EBITDA increased to $16.3 million from $9.6 million in the prior year quarter, with the increase primarily attributable to the higher number of municipal transit bus shipments and increased profitability across many of the segment's businesses.

商業調整後的 EBITDA 從去年同期的 960 萬美元增至 1,630 萬美元，成長主要歸因於市政公車運輸量的增加以及該部門許多業務獲利能力的提高。

Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 260 basis points in the quarter to 7.9%.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 260 個基點，達到 7.9%。

REV Production System was first rolled out within the Commercial segment during fiscal 2018, and we are seeing consistent margin performance and solid execution from these businesses.

REV 生產系統於 2018 財年首次在商業部門推出，我們看到這些業務的利潤表現穩定且執行力強勁。

Shuttle bus has improved several hundred basis points from slightly negative EBITDA margins to now a low single-digit, adjusted EBITDA-margin business.

穿梭巴士的 EBITDA 利潤率已從略為負的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了數百個基點，現在調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率僅為個位數。

Further, despite sales declines of terminal trucks mentioned earlier, that business has expanded EBITDA margins within the year.

此外，儘管前面提到的碼頭卡車銷量下降，但該業務年內 EBITDA 利潤率有所擴大。

Commercial backlog at the end of the fourth quarter was down 17% to $317 million compared to the end of fiscal 2018, primarily due to delivery of buses against our 1 large municipal contract.

與 2018 財年末相比，第四季末的商業積壓訂單下降了 17%，至 3.17 億美元，這主要是由於根據我們的 1 份大型市政合約交付了公車。

However, current year backlog does not include buses from the 5-year Chicago Pace transit award, and that's within the quarter, and the add-on to the LA County transit award which occurred after fiscal 2019, as Tim referenced.

然而，今年的積壓不包括 5 年期芝加哥佩斯交通獎的公車（這是在本季度內），以及蒂姆提到的 2019 財年之後發生的洛杉磯縣交通獎的附加項目。

These awards total over 400 buses and $240 million of incremental orders over their respective contract lives, and we expect firm purchase orders to be additive to backlog within the first half of fiscal 2020.

這些合約在各自的合約期間總共授予了超過 400 輛公車和 2.4 億美元的增量訂單，我們預計確定的採購訂單將在 2020 財年上半年增加積壓訂單。

Turning to Slide 7. The Recreation segment continued to reflect dealer destocking as wholesale shipments trailed retail sales across many categories.

轉向投影片 7。

Quarterly sales in the Recreation segment declined 26% year-over-year to $174 million, primarily due to lower net sales attributable to our Class A, and to a lesser extent, lower Super C, towable and camper unit sales.

休閒細分市場的季度銷售額年減 26% 至 1.74 億美元，主要是由於 A 級車的淨銷售額下降，以及較小程度上 Super C、可牽引和露營車單位銷售額的下降。

The only category that grew versus the prior year was the Class B RV, despite its continued chassis procurement delays.

儘管底盤採購持續延遲，但與前一年相比唯一增長的類別是 B 級房車。

Recreation adjusted EBITDA decreased 66% for the quarter to $7.5 million.

本季娛樂調整後 EBITDA 下降 66% 至 750 萬美元。

This decrease was due to decreased profitability in most categories, primarily due to the lower wholesale shipments, partially offset by cost reduction actions taken during the year within the Class A category.

這一下降是由於大多數類別的獲利能力下降，主要是由於批發出貨量減少，部分被今年 A 類別內採取的成本削減行動所抵消。

Segment backlog decreased 43% to $167 million for the -- versus the end of fiscal 2018, but was up 29% or $37 million sequentially compared to the third quarter.

與 2018 財年末相比，該部門的積壓訂單減少了 43%，至 1.67 億美元，但與第三季相比，季增了 29%，即 3,700 萬美元。

While we would normally expect to see an increase in backlog in the fiscal fourth quarter, we believe the accolades we received at the Elkhart Open House and other shows have driven demand for our new models and from a new dealers in high population locations perspective, where we have not been previously represented across all product categories.

雖然我們通常預計第四財季積壓訂單會增加，但我們相信，我們在埃爾克哈特開放日和其他展會上獲得的讚譽推動了對我們新車型的需求，並且從人口稠密地區的新經銷商的角度來看，我們之前並未涉足所有產品類別。

Much of the incremental demand resulting from these shows will not convert from backlog to sales until the first half of 2020, but provide a solid base as we begin the calendar year 2020 spring shows and selling season.

這些展會帶來的大部分增量需求要到 2020 年上半年才會從積壓訂單轉化為銷售，但會在我們開始 2020 年春季展會和銷售季時提供堅實的基礎。

Our current industry view aligns with industry experts, and we anticipate the overall market to be down mid-single digits.

我們目前的行業觀點與行業專家一致，我們預計整體市場將下降中個位數。

However, we feel the strength of our product lineup provides opportunity to take market share in this environment, and we will benefit from a full year of the Class A production cost reduction tailwinds initiated during 2019.

然而，我們認為我們產品陣容的優勢為我們在這種環境下獲得市場份額提供了機會，我們將受益於 2019 年發起的全年 A 級生產成本降低的順風車。

Slide 8 provides a brief view of consolidated results for fiscal 2019.

投影片 8 簡要介紹了 2019 財年的綜合業績。

Net sales of $2.4 billion is up 1% versus fiscal 2018, while consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin declined 200 basis points, primarily due to previously discussed operational efficiencies within the F&E segment and larger-than-expected market declines within Recreation, offset by improved mix and execution within the Commercial segment.

淨銷售額為24 億美元，較2018 財年增長1%，而綜合調整後EBITDA 利潤率下降200 個基點，這主要是由於之前討論的F&E 部門的運營效率以及娛樂部門的市場降幅超出預期，但被產品組合的改善所抵銷商業部門內的執行。

As Tim noted, net cash provided by operating activities for fiscal year 2019 was $52.5 million compared to a net cash use of $19.2 million in fiscal 2018.

正如 Tim 指出的那樣，2019 財年經營活動提供的淨現金為 5,250 萬美元，而 2018 財年的淨現金使用量為 1,920 萬美元。

The increase in cash from operating activities for fiscal year 2019 compared to the prior year was primarily related to improved net working capital efficiency.

2019財年經營活動現金較前一年增加主要與淨營運資本效率提高有關。

This improvement is evidence of our ongoing efforts to significantly improve our working capital efficiency over the long term.

這項改進證明了我們為長期顯著提高營運資金效率而持續努力的證據。

Uses of that cash involved a regular quarterly dividend totaling $12.5 million for the year, opportunistic share repurchases totaling $8.3 million, debt repayment of $41 million and $21 million of capital expenditures.

這些現金的用途包括全年總計 1,250 萬美元的定期季度股息、總計 830 萬美元的機會性股票回購、4,100 萬美元的債務償還和 2,100 萬美元的資本支出。

Net debt at October 31, 2019, was $373 million versus $409 million at the end of fiscal 2018, with $226 million of availability under our ABL revolving credit facility.

截至 2019 年 10 月 31 日，淨債務為 3.73 億美元，而 2018 財年末為 4.09 億美元，我們的 ABL 循環信貸額度下有 2.26 億美元的可用資金。

Our net leverage ratio at the end of fiscal year 2019 was 3.7x.

2019 財年末我們的淨槓桿率為 3.7 倍。

Within the quarter, we worked with our bank partners to reach an agreement to raise our maximum leverage ratio to 4x from 3.5x through the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2020, and we were in compliance under all financial covenants under the ABL facility and term loan as of October 31, 2019.

在本季度內，我們與銀行合作夥伴合作達成協議，到 2020 年第三財季末將最大槓桿率從 3.5 倍提高到 4 倍，並且我們遵守了 ABL 工具下的所有財務契約，並且截至2019 年10 月31 日的定期貸款。

Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of our outlook for fiscal 2020.

請參閱投影片 9，回顧我們對 2020 財年的展望。

We're estimating that net sales for fiscal 2020 will be in the range of $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion, representing a 5% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

我們預計 2020 財年的淨銷售額將在 24.5 億美元至 26 億美元之間，中間值年增 5%。

Net income is expected to be between $11 million to $31 million, an increase of $35 million at the midpoint.

淨利潤預計在 1100 萬美元至 3100 萬美元之間，中間增加 3500 萬美元。

We anticipate adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $105 million to $120 million, representing a 10% increase year-over-year at the midpoint.

我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.05 億美元至 1.2 億美元之間，中間值年增 10%。

And we are planning on $20 million to $25 million in Capex, with net cash from operations of $50 million to $70 million for the year.

我們計劃今年的資本支出為 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元，營運淨現金為 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。

Our forecast for interest expense is estimated to be in the range of $27 million to $31 million as we expect to continue to use free cash to pay down debt.

由於我們預計將繼續使用自由現金來償還債務，因此我們預計利息支出將在 2,700 萬美元至 3,100 萬美元之間。

And our effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 26% to 28%.

我們的有效稅率預計在26%至28%之間。

Absent the impacts of any potential future acquisition activities, plus cash we are planning to generate from nonoperating activities, we are targeting an additional $30 million to $60 million of debt reduction during fiscal year 2020, which, combined with our expected midpoint of adjusted EBITDA guidance, will reduce our leverage ratio to just under 3x at fiscal year-end.

如果沒有任何潛在的未來收購活動的影響，加上我們計劃從非經營活動中產生的現金，我們的目標是在2020 財年額外削減3000 萬至6000 萬美元的債務，結合我們調整後EBITDA 指導的預期中點，將在財年末將我們的槓桿率降至略低於 3 倍。

Slide 10 compares fiscal 2019 actual adjusted EBITDA quarterly run rate to the expected run rate at the midpoint of fiscal 2020 guidance.

投影片 10 將 2019 財年實際調整後 EBITDA 季度運作率與 2020 財年指引中位數的預期運作率進行了比較。

It is important to note that our fiscal first quarter typically has fewer working days available due to several holiday breaks.

值得注意的是，由於幾個假期，我們第一財季的可用工作日通常較少。

This naturally leads to less completions within the fiscal first quarter.

這自然會導致第一財季的完工量減少。

This impact is compounded by the final inspections scheduled by our customers before acceptance of delivery, which are also affected by the holidays.

客戶在接受交貨之前安排的最終檢查（也受到假期的影響）加劇了這種影響。

Nevertheless, we are striving to smooth the run rate of our business' EBITDA and expand -- and expect the second, third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2020 to start benefiting from this improvement and an improvement in performance within the F&E segment after a trough in the first quarter.

儘管如此，我們正在努力平穩並擴大業務 EBITDA 的運行率，並預計 2020 財年第二、第三和第四季度將開始受益於這一改善以及 F&E 部門在經歷了 2020 年低谷後的業績改善。第一季。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tim for some closing comments.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給提姆，徵求一些結束語。

Thanks, Dean.

謝謝，迪恩。

Clearly, 2019 was a difficult and disappointing year, but I am pleased with how we are positioned for 2020.

顯然，2019 年是艱難且令人失望的一年，但我對我們 2020 年的定位感到滿意。

I spent this week in our largest Ambulance and Fire plants, both of which enjoy healthy backlogs.

這週我在我們最大的救護車和消防工廠度過，這兩個工廠都有大量的積壓訂單。

Our plant structural changes are in place, and we believe they are manned to the levels we require to effectively execute on these backlogs, consistent with our plan.

我們的工廠結構變革已經到位，我們相信他們的人員配備達到了我們有效執行這些積壓訂單所需的水平，符合我們的計劃。

We expect both Fire and Ambulance will ramp as we progress during the year, and that we will effectively manage the odd supply chain issues that erupt as carryover from the trade war.

我們預計消防和救護車將隨著我們今年的進展而增加，並且我們將有效地管理貿易戰遺留下來的奇怪的供應鏈問題。

All of this reinforces our confidence in our plan and our belief that our guidance for the year is achievable.

所有這些都增強了我們對計劃的信心，並相信我們今年的指導是可以實現的。

Operator, we'd now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在要開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 Joel Tiss。

What -- can you talk a little bit more about like the restructuring that still needs to be done for 2020?

您能多談談 2020 年仍需要進行的重組嗎？

And kind of how it unfolds?

它是如何展開的？

And what are we looking at?

我們在看什麼？

There is none.

沒有。

The restructuring is behind us.

重組已經過去了。

We rightsized our Decatur operation.

我們調整了迪凱特業務規模。

We've ramped structurally and man wise -- or manpower-wise Ocala, and we've done the same at REV Orlando.

我們在結構和人才方面都取得了進步，或者在奧卡拉的人力方面也取得了進步，我們在奧蘭多 REV 也做了同樣的事情。

We're done.

我們完成了。

That's why we're optimistic about our plan.

這就是為什麼我們對我們的計劃持樂觀態度。

We think that we're positioned now just to execute on a really nice backlog across most of our business segments.

我們認為，我們現在的定位只是在我們的大多數業務部門中執行非常好的積壓工作。

Any commentary on pricing of the new business that's going to flow through in 2020?

對 2020 年新業務的定價有什麼評論嗎？

The backlogs are good.

積壓情況良好。

If we expect to get to 10% EBITDA margins, that means that we have to have a healthy and quality backlog, and we expect those to play out as we move through 2020.

如果我們期望達到 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，這意味著我們必須擁有健康且優質的積壓訂單，我們預計這些積壓訂單將在 2020 年實現。

And Joel, this is Dean.

喬爾，這是迪恩。

The downside of our -- some of our delays in shipments in 2019 has an upside in 2020, obviously, with -- in particular, Fire with the long backlogs.

2019 年我們的一些發貨延遲的不利因素在 2020 年有好處，顯然，特別是長期積壓的 Fire。

We're just starting to see some of those previous price increases come through in the fourth quarter, but we're expecting to benefit from those in a bigger way in 2020.

我們剛開始看到之前的一些價格上漲在第四季度實現，但我們預計 2020 年將更大程度地受益。

Okay.

好的。

And then the last one, can you give us any sort of a time frame on when you think you can get close to or in the ballpark of those 10% EBITDA margins?

最後一個問題，您能否給我們一個時間框架，說明您何時可以接近或達到 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率？

As we talked about, we still have a couple of laggards, that'd be the Decatur Class As, and with the pressure in the marketplace right now, that's going to be a bit of a struggle as we go through 2020.

正如我們所說，我們仍然有一些落後者，那就是迪凱特 A 級，鑑於目前市場的壓力，我們在 2020 年將面臨一些困難。

It's still a focus.

依然是焦點。

And shuttle bus, we think, will improve year-over-year, but we will probably not get to a 10% EBITDA margin performance in shuttle bus.

我們認為，接駁車將逐年改善，但我們可能無法在班車業務中實現 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Across the other businesses, we're close to or there.

在其他業務中，我們已經接近或達到了。

They kind of ebb and flow, but we're very comfortable with how we're positioned on those margins.

它們有起有落，但我們對自己在這些邊緣的定位感到非常滿意。

And as -- I think, Joel, as Tim said, we're going to come back to the -- to you with our second quarter conference call with an update to our longer-term financial guidance.

正如蒂姆所說，我認為喬爾，我們將透過第二季電話會議向您報告我們的長期財務指導的最新情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的安迪凱西。

On the $50 million to $70 million operating cash flow guidance, do you expect that to be pretty back half loaded, with Q4 being the high point?

關於 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的營運現金流指引，您是否預計這一數字會相當低，而第四季是最高點？

I mean that Q4 this year wasn't typically as high as it usually would be.

我的意思是，今年第四季的業績通常沒有平常那麼高。

So I'm wondering if you'll return to seasonality pre-2019.

所以我想知道你們是否會回到 2019 年之前的季節性。

And then with some anticipated asset sales, should we expect the $30 million to $60 million debt reduction to be spread through the year?

然後，隨著一些預期的資產出售，我們是否應該預期 3,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的債務削減將在一年內實現？

Or should that also be concentrated in the back half?

或者說這也應該集中在後半部？

Yes, Andy, so in the fourth quarter of 2019, one of the things that kind of created the little bit different characteristic was the ramping and the timing of the shipments in our -- particularly in our Fire division.

是的，安迪，所以在 2019 年第四季度，造成有點不同特徵的事情之一是我們——尤其是我們的消防部門的出貨量的增加和時間安排。

So we've got more inventory than we might normally have at the end of a fiscal year.

因此，我們的庫存比財政年度結束時通常擁有的庫存還要多。

I would expect 2020 to be stronger in the fourth quarter, for sure, from a cash flow perspective.

從現金流的角度來看，我預計 2020 年第四季肯定會更加強勁。

But we're working very hard to reduce the seasonality.

但我們正在努力減少季節性。

It may not go away in the short term, but reduce the seasonality from a working capital perspective.

它可能不會在短期內消失，但從營運資金的角度來看會減少季節性。

Having said that, I still believe the second half of the year will be our strongest cash flow generation, but we're working to improve or reduce the amount of use in the first half as well.

話雖如此，我仍然相信下半年將是我們最強的現金流產生，但我們也在努力改善或減少上半年的使用量。

So hopefully, the plan is to be smoother, but second half will be strong again, and fourth quarter will return to more prior year levels, as you said.

因此，希望該計劃能夠更加順利，但下半年將再次強勁，第四季度將恢復到去年同期的水平，正如您所說。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the debt reduction cadence, should that be spread through the year or concentrated back half?

那麼，就債務削減節奏而言，應該在全年中分散還是集中在下半年？

I think that will be in the back half of the year, third and fourth quarter.

我認為這將是在今年下半年，第三季和第四季。

Our next question comes from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的考特尼·亞卡沃尼斯 (Courtney Yakavonis)。

Just wanted to follow-up on the comment about dealer inventories, I think you said that they are at the lowest level for the Class A side.

只是想跟進有關經銷商庫存的評論，我想你說他們處於 A 級方面的最低水平。

Can you just comment on where you see inventories for Class B and C?

您能評論一下您在哪裡看到 B 類和 C 類庫嗎？

And just remind us of your overall exposure among the 3 groups.

請提醒我們您在這 3 組中的整體暴露情況。

Yes, they're actually low across the board.

是的，它們實際上全面偏低。

The dealer network through 2019 really moved their inventories down, which is not a bad thing.

2019 年經銷商網路確實降低了庫存，這並不是一件壞事。

That just means that they're rightsizing their retail inventory for what they expect the market demand to be.

這只是意味著他們正在根據預期的市場需求調整零售庫存。

So it's across the board.

所以這是全面的。

I don't think any particular class has been more destocked than another one.

我不認為任何特定類別的庫存比其他類別的庫存減少更多。

But the dealers are telling us now that they feel that they're very comfortable with their inventory levels, which means that the orders for 2020 should be fairly steady as we move through the year, assuming the market remains fairly flat.

但經銷商現在告訴我們，他們對自己的庫存水準感到非常滿意，這意味著假設市場保持相當平穩，那麼隨著全年的發展，2020 年的訂單應該相當穩定。

And Courtney, I think, to remind you of the allocation.

我想，考特尼是為了提醒你分配狀況。

The Class A is the largest portion of our Recreation business still at 50%-ish.

A 級是我們休閒業務的最大部分，仍佔 50% 左右。

Class B, we think will grow as a percent in 2020 because that will be the stronger category we believe with the healthy demand plus the return of chassis availability, we expect, that's 15% of the overall business.

B 類，我們認為 2020 年將成長一個百分點，因為我們相信，隨著健康的需求加上底盤可用性的恢復，這將是更強勁的類別，我們預計，這將佔整體業務的 15%。

Class C is another 20%.

C類是另外20%。

And then Towables is the rest.

然後Towables就是剩下的了。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And I think on the last call, you had talked about kind of reevaluating the Class As within the portfolio.

我認為在上次電話會議中，您談到了重新評估投資組合中的 A 級產品。

Have you finished that analysis?

你分析完了嗎？

Or is that something that's still in the cards?

或者說這仍然是有可能發生的事情？

No, I think it's -- we've completed the analysis, and we know where we stand with the As.

不，我認為是——我們已經完成了分析，我們知道我們在 A 方面的立場。

Obviously, we position them to be at the higher end of the Class A market.

顯然，我們將它們定位在 A 級市場的高端。

And we're actually -- we believe we're actually taking some share with that product right now.

事實上，我們相信我們現在確實在該產品中佔據了一些份額。

But it is margin challenged, which means that we will keep an eye on it as we move forward.

但它的利潤率受到挑戰，這意味著我們將在前進的過程中密切關注它。

Got you.

明白你了。

And then you had made a comment that labor turnover is down for the F&E plants that you talked about on the last call.

然後您評論說，您在上次電話會議中談到的 F&E 工廠的勞動力流動率下降了。

I think you also had mentioned on the last call that you were retaining some labor within Ambulance.

我想你在上次電話中也提到過，你在救護車部門保留了一些勞動力。

So can you just talk about is Ambulance appropriately staffed now that you have this order coming through?

那麼，既然您已經收到了這個命令，您能談談救護車是否配備了適當的人員嗎？

Or is there still some excess labor there?

或者說那裡還有多餘的勞力嗎？

And then also just labor turnover kind of across the portfolio, aside from just those F&E plants that you talked about?

除了您談到的那些 F&E 工廠之外，整個投資組合中還有勞動力流動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If you go back to what we talked about in Q3, we were trying to ramp significantly the Ocala plant right in the middle of the summertime, which couldn't have been worse.

如果你回到我們在第三季討論的內容，我們正試圖在夏季中期大幅提高奧卡拉工廠的產能，這再糟糕不過了。

I think I made a comment on the call that to retain 85 people, we had to hire over 200.

我想我在電話會議上發表了評論，為了留住 85 名員工，我們必須僱用 200 多名員工。

We couldn't retain them.

我們無法留住他們。

The temperatures outside were 100 degrees with 100% humidity, and people that were starting a manufacturing job for the first time in their lives said this isn't for me.

外面的溫度為 100 度，濕度為 100%，人生中第一次從事製造業工作的人說這不適合我。

We felt that once we got into the fall that, that would stabilize, and that's exactly what's happened.

我們認為，一旦進入秋季，情況就會穩定下來，而這正是發生的情況。

We believe, historically, if we can get workers in, in the fall, winter and spring, they'll usually muscle through the summertime in Florida.

我們相信，從歷史上看，如果我們能讓工人在秋季、冬季和春季進入，他們通常會在佛羅裡達州度過夏季。

So that's the dilemma that we had to ramp.

這就是我們必須解決的困境。

It couldn't have hit us at a worst time.

它不可能在最糟糕的時候攻擊我們。

Having said that, we're manned exactly where we need to be right now to hit our guidance in our Florida plants, and quite frankly, across the board.

話雖如此，我們在佛羅裡達工廠的人員配備正是我們現在需要達到的目標，坦白說，是全面的。

We've had unusually good stability, and I think part of that is because the business has been steady.

我們擁有異常良好的穩定性，我認為部分原因是業務一直穩定。

Unemployment is low, as you know, across the board, but our turnover is at the lowest it's been since I've been here in 5 years, which is a good sign that people are feeling good about what they do, where they're working and what we're doing as a company.

如你所知，整體失業率都很低，但我們的流動率是我來到這裡五年以來的最低水平，這是一個好跡象，表明人們對自己所做的事情和所在的地方感覺良好工作以及我們作為一家公司所做的事情。

Quite frankly, we're doing a really nice job across the board on health care, on safety, on things like that, that are creating them to be a good culture, or they want to be part of a better culture, let's put it that way, and that's helped a lot to stabilize our workforce.

坦白說，我們在醫療保健、安全等方面都做得非常好，這使他們成為一種良好的文化，或者他們希望成為更好的文化的一部分，讓我們這麼說吧這樣，這對穩定我們的勞動力有很大幫助。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just lastly, on the Commercial side, I think you gave us some visibility into the Chicago and LA County add-on.

最後，在商業方面，我認為您讓我們對芝加哥和洛杉磯縣的附加項目有了一些了解。

But I think you talked about a Commercial contract that won't be recurring next year in 2020.

但我認為您談到了明年 2020 年不會重複的商業合約。

Can you just talk about how large that contract was?

能談談這份合約有多大嗎？

And how much of an impact it might have on typical seasonality in that business?

它對該業務的典型季節性影響有多大？

Yes, that was a New York contract, it was a New York transit contract that we fulfilled out of our Collins plant.

是的，那是紐約合同，這是我們在柯林斯工廠履行的紐約運輸合約。

It was about 400 units.

大約有400個單位。

Dollar-wise, what was it, do you guys remember?

就美元而言，那是什麼，你們還記得嗎？

$30 million, something like that.

3000萬美元，差不多吧。

Yes.

是的。

And that was kind of a one-off situation.

那是一種一次性的情況。

It's a good contract because we broke into New York on a transit deal.

這是一份很好的合同，因為我們是透過轉機協議進入紐約的。

But those things are going to have to work through their normal product life cycle, and that will come back around.

但這些東西必須在正常的產品生命週期中發揮作用，而這種情況將會回來。

But it's not repetitive for 2020 or probably '21 or '22.

但 2020 年或可能是 21 或 22 年，這種情況不會重複。

And Courtney, that was -- that really benefited us in 2019 in the first quarter, fiscal first quarter, which is unusual from a seasonality perspective for that Collins business.

考特尼，這確實讓我們在 2019 年第一季（第一財季）受益，從季節性角度來看，這對柯林斯業務來說是不尋常的。

So that's what's not repeating.

所以這就是不再重複的內容。

It will affect us most in the first quarter of 2020 on a year-over-year perspective.

從同比角度來看，它將在 2020 年第一季對我們影響最大。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert W. Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Robert W. Baird 的對話。

Just a quick clarification, maybe, in Recreation.

也許只是在娛樂中快速澄清一下。

You talked about the market being down, call it, mid-single digit.

您談到市場正在下跌，可以稱之為中個位數。

But as far as your view on destocking, do you expect to be able to produce next year close to retail?

但就您對去庫存的看法而言，您預計明年的產量是否能夠接近零售水準？

Or is there still something to be done?

還是還有什麼事情要做？

I understand that you're looking to gain some share.

我知道您希望獲得一些份額。

But if we're leaving share issues aside, is it fair to say that next year you can produce in line with retail?

但如果我們把股票問題放在一邊，可以說明年你們的生產可以跟零售一致嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Let me give you some stats, Mig.

讓我給你一些統計數據，米格。

The overall market was down 16% in RV across the board on all classes last year.

去年，所有類別的房車市場整體下降了 16%。

Class A, though, was down about 27%, 28%, a big, big reduction.

不過，A 類下降了約 27%、28%，下降幅度非常大。

The industry is projecting a minus 3% to 4%, which we think is a little conservative.

產業預測為負 3% 至 4%，我們認為這有點保守。

So they're still expected to be down a little bit.

因此預計它們仍會略有下降。

But with the destocking that was done in '19, we're expecting kind of flat year-over-year for RV.

但隨著 19 年庫存的減少，我們預計 RV 的銷售量將比去年同期持平。

So we're not expecting down, but we are expecting flat.

所以我們預計不會下跌，但我們預計會持平。

I see.

我懂了。

Okay.

好的。

And that's for the segment as a whole?

這是整個細分市場的情況嗎？

Yes, that's the segment as a whole.

是的，這就是整個部分。

But with the destocking that was done -- to the level the destocking was done across the various different classes, we think we will be flat, if not a little bit up, like we said, with market share gains.

但隨著去庫存的完成——達到各個不同類別的去庫存水平，我們認為我們將持平，即使不是像我們所說的那樣略有上升，市場份額也會有所增長。

So if the industry is down 3% to 4%, we've planned flat just because we think our Bs are going to be up a little bit, we think our As are going to be up a little bit year-over-year, and we'll be steady in our Cs and our Towables.

因此，如果行業下跌 3% 到 4%，我們計劃持平，只是因為我們認為我們的 B 會同比上漲一點，我們認為我們的 A 會同比上漲一點，我們的 C 和拖車將保持穩定。

Okay.

好的。

And then if we're thinking about your company-wide revenue guidance, 5% growth.

然後，如果我們考慮貴公司範圍內的收入指導，則為 5% 的成長。

With RV, you're providing some clarity here.

透過 RV，您可以在這裡提供一些清晰的資訊。

How do we get to that 5% number when we're looking at the other 2 segments?

當我們考慮其他 2 個細分市場時，我們如何得出 5% 的數字？

Yes, Mig, this is Dean.

是的，米格，這是迪恩。

So as we ramp up in F&E, benefit from the larger orders in Ambulance and improve on our production and shipment cadence in Fire, we expect kind of high single-digit growth year-over-year in F&E, again, more back-half loaded because of the Fire portion of that business.

因此，隨著我們在F&E 領域的成長，受益於救護車領域的較大訂單，並改善我們在Fire 領域的生產和發貨節奏，我們預計F&E 領域將同比出現高單位數增長，同樣，更多的後半負載因為該業務的火災部分。

And we expect kind of low to mid-single-digit growth in Commercial.

我們預期商業業務將出現低至中個位數的成長。

Although we're going to see good continued strong results from, for example, a municipal transit bus business -- municipal transit business.

儘管我們將看到市政交通巴士業務（例如市政交通業務）持續強勁的業績。

We talked about the weakness and lack of transparency in specialties that kind of offsets as well as that one contract in Collins.

我們討論了這種抵消的專業領域的弱點和缺乏透明度以及柯林斯的一份合約。

So altogether, that should get you pretty close to the midpoint of our revenue guidance.

總而言之，這應該會讓你非常接近我們收入指導的中點。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Last question for me.

對我來說最後一個問題。

In F&E, it sounds to me like 2020 is going to be kind of -- it's going to be a difficult year to model, to put it bluntly.

在 F&E 領域，我覺得 2020 年將是建模困難的一年，坦白說。

There has been a lot of noise over the past couple of years in terms of these labor inefficiencies, and you're making progress.

過去幾年，關於勞動力效率低下的問題引起了很多爭議，但你們正在取得進展。

You also have a volume ramp that we have to take into account, but you're saying that Q1 is going to start slower.

我們還必須考慮銷售成長，但您說第一季的啟動速度會較慢。

So just to kind of level set us, are you expecting margins to be down in Q1?

那麼，為了讓我們了解一下，您預計第一季的利潤率會下降嗎？

And then what sort of pace of recovery in margin do you see through the year?

那麼，您認為今年利潤率的復原速度如何？

Yes, Mig, this is Dean again.

是的，米格，這又是迪恩。

Yes, we talked about for F&E to be the trough in Q1.

是的，我們談到 F&E 將成為第一季的低谷。

So yes, on a year-over-year basis, we expect them to be down.

所以，是的，我們預計它們會比去年同期下降。

When you think at a higher level about F&E, our incremental margin should be above 20%, 25%, maybe 30%, depending on the mix of the products and how custom and what types they are.

當你從更高的層面思考 F&E 時，我們的增量利潤率應該高於 20%、25%，甚至 30%，這取決於產品的組合以及定製程度和類型。

But I think for full year, we're going to be more in the teens, mid-teens incremental margin, with less in the first half and then back to those higher levels in the second half.

但我認為，就全年而言，我們的增量利潤率將在十幾歲、十幾歲左右，上半年會減少，然後在下半年回到更高的水平。

So hopefully, that -- as we ramp up.

因此，希望隨著我們的努力，這一點能夠實現。

So hopefully, that helps you model it better.

希望這可以幫助您更好地建模。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

This is Ben Burud on for Jerry.

我是本布魯德 (Ben Burud) 替傑瑞 (Jerry) 發言。

I was hoping you could maybe step us through in a little more granularity all of the moving pieces in F&E operationally in the first half.

我希望您能更詳細地向我們介紹上半年 F&E 營運中的所有移動部分。

Can you just give us an idea of how this new labor has performed in terms of manufacturing these, obviously, complex machines?

您能為我們介紹一下這種新勞動力在製造這些顯然很複雜的機器方面表現如何嗎？

And give us an idea of how maybe product quality has stacked up?

並讓我們了解一下產品品質如何提升？

Just some more granularity on -- obviously, the restructuring is behind us or the real hard work.

顯然，重組已經過去，或者真正的艱苦工作已經過去了。

But from an operational point of view, what exactly is playing out over the next 6 months?

但從營運角度來看，未來 6 個月到底會發生什麼事？

Yes, that's a good question.

是的，這是一個好問題。

I think, obviously, we have a lot of new employees that we've hired, so we can ramp.

我認為，顯然，我們僱用了很多新員工，所以我們可以擴大規模。

We will not sacrifice quality, which means that we will ramp slowly.

我們不會犧牲質量，這意味著我們會慢慢進步。

We will have labor inefficiencies in Q1, it will improve in Q2 and get really good in Q3 and Q4 because we don't want to overdo it.

我們將在第一季出現勞動力效率低下的情況，在第二季度會有所改善，並在第三季度和第四季度變得非常好，因為我們不想做得太過分。

If we go too fast, quite frankly, we sacrifice quality, and we have a lot of new people on the floor right now.

坦白說，如果我們進展太快，我們就會犧牲質量，而且我們現在有很多新人。

They've all been trained.

他們都受過訓練。

We trained them really during the fourth quarter, and that's another reason why the fourth quarter was the way we guided it and the way it resulted, a lot of labor inefficiencies as we were training the new employees.

我們在第四季度對他們進行了真正的培訓，這也是我們在第四季度進行指導和結果的另一個原因，因為我們在培訓新員工時出現了許多勞動力效率低下的情況。

But it'll ramp through the year, and that's what we're projecting.

但這一數字將在全年持續成長，這就是我們的預測。

But the people are in place, they're -- we're manned to the levels we need to be manned, and the efficiencies will improve as we move through the year.

但人員已經就位，我們的人員配備達到了我們需要的水平，隨著這一年的進展，效率將會提高。

Got it.

知道了。

And then if I just step through the segments in terms of what's embedded in the guide from an EBITDA perspective.

然後，如果我只是從 EBITDA 的角度逐步了解指南中嵌入的內容。

If I just maybe pick out R&V -- RV for now, excuse me.

如果我現在只能選擇 R&V——RV，請原諒。

Based on what you mentioned a question or 2 ago, it sounds like you're forecasting, or embedding, I should say, flat revenue growth, but I'm assuming your guide's also embedding margin contraction year-over-year in that segment as well.

根據您在一個或兩個問題前提到的內容，聽起來您正在預測或嵌入，我應該說，收入增長持平，但我假設您的指南也在該細分市場中嵌入了逐年利潤收縮，因為出色地。

Is that the right way to think about RV EBITDA?

這是考慮 RV EBITDA 的正確方式嗎？

Yes, there's some margin contraction, I guess, from some of the mix.

是的，我猜，某些組合會導致利潤率收縮。

But given the $5 million we talked about of restructuring benefits, we'll probably be closer to flattish from an EBITDA perspective as well.

但考慮到我們談到的 500 萬美元的重組收益，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們也可能接近持平。

There are no further questions in the queue.

隊列中沒有其他問題。

I'd like to hand the call back to Tim Sullivan for closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給蒂姆·沙利文，讓其致閉幕詞。

Well, thanks again, everyone, for joining us today.

好的，再次感謝大家今天加入我們。

Obviously, we've gone through a really tough patch in 2019, but we feel good about our plan for 2020.

顯然，我們在 2019 年經歷了一段非常艱難的時期，但我們對 2020 年的計畫感到滿意。

We feel good how we're positioned.

我們對自己的定位感覺良好。

Hopefully, that came across in the call today.

希望今天的電話會議能反映這一點。

Obviously, the proof's in the pudding as we move through the year, but we're excited to turn the corner and -- or I should say, maybe the page and put 2019 behind us.

顯然，隨著我們度過這一年，證據就在布丁中，但我們很高興能夠扭轉局面——或者我應該說，也許翻過這一頁，把 2019 年拋在身後。

It was a tough year.

這是艱難的一年。

Looking forward to talking to you all again in March.

期待三月再次與大家交談。

And as always, contact us if you have any additional questions.

像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請與我們聯繫。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。