高通 (QCOM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 2, 2022.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Qualcomm 第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 11 月 2 日錄製。

The playback number for today's call is (877) 660-6853. International callers, please dial (201) 612-7415. The playback reservation number is 13733389.

今天電話的播放號碼是（877）660-6853。國際呼叫者請撥打 (201) 612-7415。播放預約號為13733389。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lopez-Hodoyan, please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Mauricio Lopez-Hodoyan。 Lopez-Hodoyan 先生，請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Cristiano Amon and Akash Palkhiwala. In addition, Alex Rogers will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括 Cristiano Amon 和 Akash Palkhiwala 準備好的講話。此外，Alex Rogers 將參加問答環節。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片演示。此外，本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網絡直播，今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。

During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將使用法規 G 中定義的非 GAAP 財務指標，您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的對賬。我們還將做出前瞻性陳述，包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務結果的預測和估計。

Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。請參閱我們的 SEC 文件，包括我們最近的 10-K，其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述大不相同的重要因素。

And now to comments from Qualcomm's President and Chief Executive Officer, Cristiano Amon.

現在聽取高通總裁兼首席執行官克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙的評論。

Thank you, Mauricio, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Fiscal '22 has been a strong year for Qualcomm with record performance in our chipset business and a strong execution of our diversification and growth strategy. We remain focused on continuing to transition Qualcomm from a wireless communications company for the mobile industry to a connected processor company for the intelligent edge.

謝謝毛里西奧，大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。 '22 財年對 Qualcomm 來說是強勁的一年，我們的芯片組業務表現創紀錄，我們的多元化和增長戰略也得到了強有力的執行。我們仍然專注於繼續將高通從一家面向移動行業的無線通信公司轉變為一家面向智能邊緣的互聯處理器公司。

We're driving the transformation of industries and growth of the digital economy by powering the billions of smart connected devices at the edge, utilizing our One Technology Roadmap with leadership in wireless connectivity, high-performance, low-power computing and on-device AI. While the semiconductor industry is being impacted by significant macroeconomic headwinds and other short-term challenges from which we're not immune, the fundamentals of Qualcomm's growth drivers remain unchanged with significant opportunities in the coming years.

我們通過在無線連接、高性能、低功耗計算和設備端人工智能方面領先的 One Technology Roadmap 為數十億的邊緣智能連接設備提供動力，推動行業轉型和數字經濟增長.儘管半導體行業正受到宏觀經濟逆風和其他我們無法倖免的短期挑戰的影響，但高通公司增長動力的基本面保持不變，未來幾年將迎來重大機遇。

In Q4, we delivered record revenues of $11.4 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.13, reflecting record revenues in our chipset business and solid performance in licensing. QCT revenues of $9.9 billion were up 28% year-over-year, including record performance across handsets, automotive and IoT. Fiscal '22 revenues of $44 billion were up 32% year-over-year. QCT, the growth engine of the company, contributed revenues of $37.7 billion, up 39% year-over-year, with combined fiscal year IoT and automotive revenues growing 38% year-over-year. QTL delivered $6.4 billion in revenues.

在第四季度，我們實現了創紀錄的 114 億美元收入和 3.13 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，這反映了我們的芯片組業務創紀錄的收入和許可方面的穩健表現。 QCT 收入為 99 億美元，同比增長 28%，其中包括手機、汽車和物聯網領域的創紀錄表現。 22 財年的收入為 440 億美元，同比增長 32%。公司的增長引擎 QCT 貢獻了 377 億美元的收入，同比增長 39%，財年物聯網和汽車總收入同比增長 38%。 QTL 實現了 64 億美元的收入。

Let me now summarize a few highlights from the fiscal year. In handsets, we entered into a new multiyear agreement with Samsung, expanding the use of Snapdragon platforms for future premium Samsung Galaxy products globally. We also executed on the changing OEM landscape opportunity, securing key premium and high-tier design wins with our customers in China. Snapdragon has become synonymous with premium mobile experiences worldwide.

現在讓我總結一下本財年的一些亮點。在手機方面，我們與三星簽訂了一項新的多年期協議，將 Snapdragon 平台的使用範圍擴大到全球未來的高端三星 Galaxy 產品。我們還抓住了不斷變化的 OEM 格局機會，與我們在中國的客戶贏得了關鍵的優質和高端設計。 Snapdragon 已成為全球優質移動體驗的代名詞。

In automotive, our design win pipeline across connectivity, digital cockpit and ADAS is now greater than $30 billion. We also completed the acquisition of Arriver, which enhances our ability to deliver open, scalable, fully integrated and competitive ADAS solutions. Importantly, we have firmly established ourselves as a key strategic and technology partner for the automotive industry, and the Snapdragon Digital Chassis is now the preferred platform for next-generation vehicles.

在汽車領域，我們在連接、數字駕駛艙和 ADAS 方面的設計贏得管道現在超過 300 億美元。我們還完成了對 Arriver 的收購，這增強了我們提供開放、可擴展、完全集成和具有競爭力的 ADAS 解決方案的能力。重要的是，我們已經牢固確立了自己作為汽車行業關鍵戰略和技術合作夥伴的地位，而驍龍數字底盤現在是下一代汽車的首選平台。

In IoT, we extended our chipset road map to capitalize on trends driving the connected intelligent edge, notably, the conversions of personal computing with mobile; the intersection of physical and virtual spaces; the enterprise transformation of the home; the expansion of broadband; and the ongoing digital transformation across many verticals.

在物聯網中，我們擴展了我們的芯片組路線圖，以利用推動互聯智能邊緣的趨勢，特別是個人計算與移動設備的轉換；物理空間和虛擬空間的交集；家的企業轉型；寬帶的擴展；以及許多垂直領域正在進行的數字化轉型。

In consumer IoT, we increased OEM design wins in ecosystem traction for our next-generation Windows on Snapdragon solutions, which incorporate our custom CPUs. The game-changing AI capabilities of our Snapdragon compute platform recently demonstrated at Microsoft Ignite 2022 developer conference will redefine user experiences on Windows 11.

在消費者物聯網中，我們為我們的下一代 Windows on Snapdragon 解決方案增加了生態系統牽引力的 OEM 設計勝利，該解決方案包含我們的定制 CPU。我們最近在 Microsoft Ignite 2022 開發者大會上展示的 Snapdragon 計算平台改變遊戲規則的 AI 功能將重新定義 Windows 11 上的用戶體驗。

We also announced a multiyear agreement with Meta to develop premium virtual reality and mixed reality experiences starting with next-generation devices powered by custom Snapdragon XR platforms. We continue to be a leading platform provider for virtually all commercially available and announced XR devices and remain well positioned as XR develops.

我們還宣布與 Meta 達成一項多年協議，從由定制 Snapdragon XR 平台驅動的下一代設備開始開發優質的虛擬現實和混合現實體驗。我們將繼續成為幾乎所有商業可用和已發布的 XR 設備的領先平台提供商，並隨著 XR 的發展保持良好的定位。

In edge networking IoT, we have seen positive share traction related to the rollout of Wi-Fi 6 and 6E solutions for enterprise access points and retail mesh systems. And we are seeing strong interest in new design wins for our Wi-Fi 7 solutions. Additionally, our 5G fixed wireless access broadband solution is now the industry's platform of choice for wireless fiber globally.

在邊緣網絡物聯網中，我們看到與為企業接入點和零售網狀系統推出 Wi-Fi 6 和 6E 解決方案相關的積極份額牽引力。我們看到了對我們的 Wi-Fi 7 解決方案的新設計勝利的濃厚興趣。此外，我們的 5G 固定無線接入寬帶解決方案現在是業界首選的全球無線光纖平台。

In industrial IoT, we built a strong foundation for growth with significant wins across industrial handhelds, robotics, payments, gateways, smart camera, enterprise collaboration and edge processing. The growing diversity of these end markets position us well to benefit from durable and margin-accretive growth opportunities in industrial.

在工業物聯網方面，我們在工業手持設備、機器人、支付、網關、智能相機、企業協作和邊緣處理領域取得了重大勝利，為增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這些終端市場日益多樣化，使我們能夠從工業領域的持久和利潤增長機會中受益。

In licensing, we extended our agreement with Samsung through 2030, establishing an important benchmark for the long term and for future renegotiations. In addition to delivering record financial results, our fiscal '22 achievements validate our strategy and have provided a strong foundation for long-term growth.

在許可方面，我們將與三星的協議延長至 2030 年，為長期和未來的重新談判建立了重要的基準。除了提供創紀錄的財務業績外，我們的 '22 財年成就驗證了我們的戰略，並為長期增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

As we look to fiscal '23, further deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and extended China COVID restrictions have resulted in demand weakness and temporary elevated channel inventory across the industry. As good stewards of capital for our stockholders, we are committed to managing our business in light of the current environment without losing sight of the significant growth opportunities ahead.

當我們展望 23 財年時，宏觀經濟環境的進一步惡化和中國 COVID 限制的擴大導致整個行業的需求疲軟和渠道庫存暫時升高。作為股東的優秀資本管家，我們致力於根據當前環境管理我們的業務，同時不會忽視未來的重大增長機會。

To that end, we're being very disciplined in managing operating expenses while optimizing our R&D investments to prudently focus on growth within automotive and IoT. We have already implemented a hiring freeze, and we have planned spending reductions across our mature product areas and SG&A to fund our diversification. We are continuing to evaluate additional actions, and we are prepared and committed to making further reductions to operating expenses as needed.

為此，我們在管理運營費用方面非常自律，同時優化我們的研發投資，謹慎地專注於汽車和物聯網的增長。我們已經實施了招聘凍結，併計劃在我們成熟的產品領域和 SG&A 上削減開支，為我們的多元化提供資金。我們正在繼續評估其他行動，我們準備並致力於根據需要進一步減少運營費用。

It is important to note that the current inventory drawdown is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying growth and earnings power of the company in the long term. And we are in a strong position to manage the near-term headwinds.

值得注意的是，當前的庫存下降是一種週期性調整，從長遠來看對公司的潛在增長和盈利能力沒有影響。我們在應對近期不利因素方面處於有利地位。

Beyond 2023, we see a number of our strategic growth initiatives increasing in scale. We anticipate automotive revenues will grow consistent with our Auto Investor Day projections as the design win pipeline materializes. We expect to see an inflection point in Windows on Snapdragon PCs in 2024 based on a significant number of design wins to date.

2023 年之後，我們看到我們的一些戰略增長計劃規模不斷擴大。隨著設計獲勝渠道的實現，我們預計汽車收入將與我們的汽車投資者日預測保持一致。基於迄今為止的大量設計勝利，我們預計 2024 年 Snapdragon PC 上的 Windows 將出現拐點。

XR is just at the beginning of its growth curve. 5G wireless fiber presents significant opportunities in regions such as India and other developing economies that have just started to deploy 5G networks. Lastly, the digital transformation of industries will continue to gain momentum, driving connectivity and intelligence at the edge.

XR 正處於其增長曲線的起點。 5G 無線光纖在印度和其他剛剛開始部署 5G 網絡的發展中經濟體等地區提供了重大機遇。最後，行業的數字化轉型將繼續獲得動力，推動邊緣連接和智能。

In summary, despite the short-term challenges, the fundamentals of our growth strategy remain intact. We remain confident in our ability to navigate the current economic downturn given our strong balance sheet and consistent history of strong free cash flow generation. We will continue to focus on stockholder returns and executing on our ongoing diversification opportunities.

總而言之，儘管面臨短期挑戰，但我們增長戰略的基本面仍然完好無損。鑑於我們強勁的資產負債表和強勁的自由現金流產生的一貫歷史，我們仍然對我們應對當前經濟低迷的能力充滿信心。我們將繼續關注股東回報並執行我們持續的多元化機會。

The powerful secular tailwinds driving multiyear demand for our One Technology Roadmap across multiple end industries are unchanged and resilient. We remain on track to expand our addressable market by more than 7x to approximately $700 billion in the next decade and firmly establish Qualcomm as the connected processor company for the intelligent edge.

推動跨多個終端行業對我們的單一技術路線圖的多年需求的強大長期順風沒有改變且具有彈性。我們仍有望在未來十年將我們的潛在市場擴大 7 倍以上，達到約 7000 億美元，並將高通公司牢固地確立為智能邊緣的互聯處理器公司。

I would now like to turn the call over to Akash.

我現在想把電話轉給 Akash。

Thank you, Cristiano, and good afternoon, everyone. In a challenging macroeconomic environment, we are pleased to announce strong fourth quarter results with record revenues of $11.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $3.13. These results reflect year-over-year increases of 22% and 23% in revenues and EPS, respectively, driven by strength across QCT.

謝謝克里斯蒂亞諾，大家下午好。在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中，我們很高興地宣布強勁的第四季度業績，創紀錄的收入為 114 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為 3.13 美元。這些結果反映了在 QCT 實力的推動下，收入和每股收益分別同比增長 22% 和 23%。

This was also a record quarter for QCT revenues of $9.9 billion and EBT margin of 34%, both above the midpoint of our guidance with year-over-year revenue growth of 28% and EBT dollar growth of 37%. Handset revenues of $6.6 billion increased 40% versus the year ago quarter on strength of our Snapdragon product portfolio across premium and high tiers.

這也是 QCT 收入 99 億美元和 EBT 利潤率為 34% 的創紀錄季度，均高於我們指引的中點，收入同比增長 28%，EBT 美元增長 37%。 66 億美元的手機收入與去年同期相比增長了 40%，這得益於我們在高端和高端的 Snapdragon 產品組合的實力。

As expected, RF front-end revenues of $992 million were impacted by the continued weakness of the handset market and channel inventory. IoT revenues were up 24% year-over-year to $1.9 billion on growth across edge networking and industrial IoT.

正如預期的那樣，9.92 億美元的射頻前端收入受到手機市場和渠道庫存持續疲軟的影響。由於邊緣網絡和工業物聯網的增長，物聯網收入同比增長 24% 至 19 億美元。

Automotive revenues of $427 million grew 58% versus the year ago quarter due to the broad adoption of our Snapdragon Digital Chassis. QTL revenues of $1.4 billion and EBT margin of 69% reflected the impact of lower handset units relative to our expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

由於我們的 Snapdragon 數字機箱的廣泛採用，汽車收入為 4.27 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了 58%。 QTL 收入為 14 億美元，EBT 利潤率為 69%，反映了相對於我們在本季度初的預期而言，手機銷量下降的影響。

Turning to fiscal '22 results. We delivered record non-GAAP revenues and EPS with year-over-year growth of 32% and 47%, respectively. In addition, looking over the past 2 fiscal years, we've more than doubled our non-GAAP revenues and almost tripled non-GAAP EPS from fiscal '20 to fiscal '22, underscoring the strong momentum across our businesses.

轉向財政'22結果。我們實現了創紀錄的非公認會計原則收入和每股收益，分別同比增長 32% 和 47%。此外，回顧過去 2 個財年，從 20 財年到 22 財年，我們的非 GAAP 收入增加了一倍多，非 GAAP 每股收益幾乎增加了兩倍，突顯了我們業務的強勁勢頭。

In QCT, we had records across all revenue streams as well as approximately 500 basis points of EBT margin expansion from 29% in fiscal '21 to 34% in fiscal '22. We are pleased with the continued success of our diversification strategy as we delivered year-over-year combined revenue growth of 38% across IoT and automotive.

在 QCT 中，我們記錄了所有收入流的記錄，以及大約 500 個基點的 EBT 利潤率從 21 財年的 29% 增長到 22 財年的 34%。我們對多元化戰略的持續成功感到高興，因為我們在物聯網和汽車領域實現了 38% 的綜合收入同比增長。

Lastly, we continue to be disciplined in delivering long-term stockholder value. We executed on our capital return commitments, returning 93% of our free cash flow, including $3.2 billion in dividends and $3.1 billion in stock repurchases.

最後，我們在提供長期股東價值方面繼續保持自律。我們履行了資本回報承諾，返還了 93% 的自由現金流，包括 32 億美元的股息和 31 億美元的股票回購。

Before turning to first quarter guidance, I'll address how our near-term financial outlook is impacted by the challenges facing the semiconductor industry. As we communicated during the last earnings call, we had started to see a deceleration in demand for mass-tier handsets in consumer IoT. Since then, the further deterioration of macroeconomic environment and sustained COVID restrictions in China have led to broad-based demand weakening across tiers and regions.

在轉向第一季度指引之前，我將討論我們的近期財務前景如何受到半導體行業面臨的挑戰的影響。正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所傳達的那樣，我們已經開始看到消費物聯網中對大眾手機的需求出現減速。自那以來，中國宏觀經濟環境的進一步惡化和持續的新冠疫情限制導致各層級和地區的廣泛需求減弱。

Given these considerations, we now project 3G, 4G, 5G handset volumes in calendar 2022 to decline by low double digits on a year-over-year basis, including 600 million to 650 million 5G handsets. This rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints across the semiconductor industry have resulted in elevated channel inventory.

考慮到這些因素，我們現在預計 2022 年 3G、4G、5G 手機銷量將同比下降兩位數，其中包括 6 億至 6.5 億部 5G 手機。整個半導體行業的需求迅速惡化和供應限制的緩解導致渠道庫存增加。

Due to these elevated levels, our largest customers have made significant changes to their inventory policy. They are now drawing down on their inventory, negatively impacting our near-term financial performance.

由於這些較高的水平，我們最大的客戶已對其庫存政策進行了重大更改。他們現在正在減少庫存，對我們的近期財務業績產生負面影響。

Based on our current assessment, we estimate that there are roughly 8 to 10 weeks of elevated inventory in the channel. While the environment is very dynamic, based on the information we have today, we believe this may take a couple of quarters to work itself through with more than half of the inventory drawdown completed in the first fiscal quarter. We are confident in our ability to navigate this environment successfully, and we'll continue to monitor inventory levels and order patterns closely.

根據我們目前的評估，我們估計渠道中大約有 8 到 10 週的庫存增加。雖然環境非常活躍，但根據我們今天掌握的信息，我們認為這可能需要幾個季度才能完成，超過一半的庫存縮減在第一財季完成。我們對成功駕馭這種環境的能力充滿信心，我們將繼續密切監控庫存水平和訂單模式。

As Cristiano outlined, while we navigate this downturn, we've already implemented specific actions to manage our spending levels, including a hiring freeze and reductions in handsets, other mature product areas and SG&A. We will remain disciplined and be prepared to take further decisive actions on additional reductions to operating expenses if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate.

正如克里斯蒂亞諾所概述的那樣，在我們度過這次低迷時期，我們已經採取了具體行動來管理我們的支出水平，包括凍結招聘和減少手機、其他成熟產品領域和 SG&A。如果宏觀經濟環境繼續惡化，我們將保持紀律，並準備採取進一步果斷行動進一步削減運營費用。

Turning to guidance for the first fiscal quarter. We are forecasting revenues of $9.2 billion to $10 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 to $2.45. The midpoint of our guidance includes an estimated impact of approximately $2 billion in revenue and $0.80 in EPS related to the drawdown of channel inventory with the remaining impact primarily due to weaker end-market demand and foreign exchange headwinds.

轉向第一財季的指導。我們預計收入為 92 億至 100 億美元，非公認會計原則每股收益為 2.25 至 2.45 美元。我們指導的中點包括與渠道庫存減少相關的估計約 20 億美元的收入和 0.80 美元的每股收益影響，其餘影響主要是由於終端市場需求疲軟和外匯逆風。

In QCT, we expect revenues of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion and EBT margins of 26% to 28%. Following the record performance in fourth quarter, we expect our handsets and IoT revenue streams to be down sequentially due to the impacts I just described. On a year-over-year basis, we still expect revenue growth across IoT and automotive.

在 QCT，我們預計收入為 77 億至 83 億美元，EBT 利潤率為 26% 至 28%。在第四季度創紀錄的表現之後，由於我剛才描述的影響，我們預計我們的手機和物聯網收入流將依次下降。與去年同期相比，我們仍然預計物聯網和汽車領域的收入將增長。

We estimate QTL revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion and EBT margins of 71% to 75%. This estimate reflects the updated handset forecast, including a muted seasonal benefit for the holiday quarter and approximately $50 million headwind from foreign exchange on a year-over-year basis. Lastly, we now anticipate non-GAAP operating expenses to decrease 3% to 5% sequentially.

我們估計 QTL 收入為 14.5 億美元至 16.5 億美元，EBT 利潤率為 71% 至 75%。這一估計反映了更新後的手機預測，包括假日季度的季節性收益溫和，以及同比約 5000 萬美元的外匯逆風。最後，我們現在預計非 GAAP 運營費用將環比下降 3% 至 5%。

Before I conclude, I'd like to provide an update on RF front-end revenue stream disclosure and planning assumption for Apple product revenues. We have grown our RF front-end revenues to become the #1 player in handsets due to the breadth and strength of our product portfolio. Looking forward, we expect growth to be driven by our strong design win pipeline for 5G and Wi-Fi 7 platforms across handsets, automotive and IoT.

在結束之前，我想提供有關 RF 前端收入流披露和 Apple 產品收入規劃假設的最新信息。由於我們產品組合的廣度和實力，我們的射頻前端收入增長，成為手機領域的第一大廠商。展望未來，我們預計增長將由我們在手機、汽車和物聯網領域的 5G 和 Wi-Fi 7 平台的強大設計贏得管道推動。

As a result, starting in fiscal '23, we will consolidate RF front-end revenues within handsets, automotive and IoT revenue streams. In addition, we'll continue to provide periodic updates on the combined RF front-end revenues against our Investor Day target.

因此，從 23 財年開始，我們將把射頻前端收入整合到手機、汽車和物聯網收入流中。此外，我們將繼續根據我們的投資者日目標定期更新射頻前端的合併收入。

For Apple product revenue, we now expect to have the vast majority of share of 5G modems for the 2023 iPhone launch, up from our previous 20% assumption. Beyond this, there are no changes to our planning assumption, and we are assuming minimal contribution from Apple product revenues in fiscal '25.

對於 Apple 產品收入，我們現在預計 2023 年 iPhone 發布的 5G 調製解調器將佔據絕大多數份額，高於我們之前 20% 的假設。除此之外，我們的計劃假設沒有變化，我們假設 25 財年蘋果產品收入的貢獻最小。

In closing, while the current backdrop presents near-term headwinds for our industry, we remain confident in our leading technology road map, deep customer relationships and strong balance sheet to help us navigate these challenges and maintain our leadership position. Our diversification strategy and long-term growth opportunities remain intact as we continue to drive our vision to bring cloud connectivity, data processing and artificial intelligence to the edge.

最後，儘管當前的背景為我們的行業帶來了近期的不利因素，但我們仍然對我們領先的技術路線圖、深厚的客戶關係和強大的資產負債表充滿信心，以幫助我們應對這些挑戰並保持我們的領先地位。隨著我們繼續推動將雲連接、數據處理和人工智能帶到邊緣的願景，我們的多元化戰略和長期增長機會保持不變。

Thank you. Back to you, Mauricio.

謝謝你。回到你身邊，毛里西奧。

Thank you, Akash. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

謝謝你，阿卡什。接線員，我們現在可以提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Ramsay with Cowen and Company.

（操作員說明）Matt Ramsay 與 Cowen and Company。

I guess my first question, Cristiano, has really 2 parts to it on the smartphone market. No -- I guess you guys were really clear in the prepared script about what's going on with channel inventory, with customers, and a deterioration of the macro. I guess that's -- maybe the magnitudes are different, but directionally, no big surprise.

我想我的第一個問題，克里斯蒂亞諾，在智能手機市場上確實有兩個部分。不——我猜你們在準備好的腳本中非常清楚渠道庫存、客戶和宏觀惡化的情況。我想那是——也許幅度不同，但在方向上，並不令人意外。

So I guess the questions are, are you guys seeing the weakness that's been there in global and low mid-tier Android? Are you seeing that worsen? Or are you seeing that weakness now moving into the high-end, premium tier?

所以我想問題是，你們是否看到了全球和中低端 Android 的弱點？你看到情況惡化了嗎？或者您是否看到這種弱點現在正在進入高端、優質層？

And the second part is we get questions from investors about when things do weaken, do some of the ASP -- really strong performance that you guys have had in your wireless business over the last year or 2, do those ASPs started rolling over? Or is this a unit dynamic and you're seeing ASPs hold up well?

第二部分是我們從投資者那裡得到關於什麼時候會減弱的問題，做一些 ASP - 你們在過去一兩年中在無線業務中的表現非常強勁，這些 ASP 是否開始滾動？或者這是一個單位動態並且您看到 ASP 保持良好？

Thank you, Matt. This is Cristiano. I'm going to start the question. I'm going to ask Akash to also add some data. So what we have seen in the smartphone markets, and I think we tried to detail as much as can in the script, it's really -- there is a combination of the weakness of demand, which is related to basically the macroeconomic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China that has kind of singled out the China market has been also down as the major factor. And it's mostly a handset consumer story.

謝謝你，馬特。這是克里斯蒂亞諾。我要開始提問了。我將要求 Akash 也添加一些數據。所以我們在智能手機市場看到的情況，我認為我們試圖在腳本中盡可能詳細地描述，這真的是需求疲軟的結合，這基本上與宏觀經濟逆風和長期中國的新冠病毒在某種程度上將中國市場列為主要因素。這主要是手機消費者的故事。

The other issue that we've been talking about, and that's the big issue really, is you have a situation that you had a lot of demand and supply-constrained environment. So companies across the board had much higher inventory policies. When supply chain got resolved, then you get that with the macroeconomic uncertainty, you have a drawdown and trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.

我們一直在談論的另一個問題，這確實是個大問題，是你的情況是你有很多需求和供應受限的環境。因此，所有公司都有更高的庫存政策。當供應鏈得到解決時，隨著宏觀經濟的不確定性，你就會出現縮水，並試圖將庫存提高到與需求受限情況不同的水平。

That is starting to hit the premium tier as well as we -- as customers are basically adjusting their inventory levels on premium tier. However, we actually see as we go to next-generation possibilities for ASP to increase because we're actually increasing processor content, and we're very well positioned for the premium tier.

這開始影響到我們和我們一樣的高端——因為客戶基本上是在調整他們在高端的庫存水平。然而，我們實際上看到下一代 ASP 的可能性會增加，因為我們實際上是在增加處理器內容，而且我們在高端產品方面處於非常有利的位置。

If you take the Apple update, I would say every premium-tier device has Qualcomm content on it. Of course, the best story is Snapdragon across Samsung and our Chinese customers. And the content is increasing. We expect to see ASP going up. Akash, anything you would like to add?

如果您接受 Apple 更新，我會說每個高級設備上都有高通內容。當然，最好的故事是 Snapdragon 跨越三星和我們的中國客戶。而且內容越來越多。我們預計 ASP 會上升。阿卡什，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just maybe quickly, Matt, on your first question. What we saw in the September quarter through our licensee reporting is weakness across tiers and regions. So it was -- it cut across all tiers in that case. And then that's what we are projecting forward in the December quarter as well.

馬特，也許很快，關於你的第一個問題。通過我們的被許可人報告，我們在 9 月季度看到的是各個層級和地區的弱點。所以它是 - 在這種情況下它跨越了所有層。這也是我們在 12 月季度的預測。

And then clearly, on the ASP side, as Cristiano said, the content is increasing and we have opportunity on upside in that case. And also, you've seen us manage through the last couple of years of foundry price increases, and then we've been able to keep gross margins strong.

然後很明顯，在 ASP 方面，正如 Cristiano 所說，內容正在增加，在這種情況下我們有機會上漲。而且，您已經看到我們在過去幾年的代工價格上漲中進行了管理，然後我們能夠保持強勁的毛利率。

As my follow-up, Akash, last year -- I guess a year ago on the call at the beginning of the fiscal year, you were a different environment, a lot less volatility obviously. But you talked to us about the next fiscal year maybe having 20% or more EPS growth for the company. And you obviously did much better than that, and I think you came in at 47%.

作為我的後續行動，阿卡什，去年——我想一年前在本財年初的電話會議上，你是一個不同的環境，顯然波動性要小得多。但是您與我們談到下一個財政年度可能為公司帶來 20% 或更多的每股收益增長。而且你顯然做得比那好得多，我認為你的成功率為 47%。

A lot of different variables now, the inventory correction, a change and extension of the Apple business. If you have any thoughts there about how we should think about the next fiscal year, we'd really appreciate it.

現在有很多不同的變量，庫存調整，蘋果業務的變化和延伸。如果您對我們應該如何考慮下一個財政年度有任何想法，我們將不勝感激。

Sure, Matt. So if you look at the first quarter, there are really 2 factors that are kind of inconsistent with current -- recent trend. The first one is this inventory drawdown that we are seeing in the quarter. Impact of that is approximately $0.80 within the quarter. And that's really the primary impact. Of course, there's a little bit of impact that also comes in from the weaker market environment as well.

當然，馬特。因此，如果您查看第一季度，確實有兩個因素與當前 - 最近的趨勢不一致。第一個是我們在本季度看到的庫存下降。該季度的影響約為 0.80 美元。這確實是主要影響。當然，疲軟的市場環境也帶來了一些影響。

So when you take that impact in the first quarter projected forward for the rest of the year, we were very clear that the OEM inventory drawdown, we see that as a couple of quarter issue. And it's not something that's a long-term challenge for us. It's a short-term cyclical issue. So that should inform how you project it through the year.

因此，當您在第一季度預測今年剩餘時間的影響時，我們非常清楚 OEM 庫存下降，我們認為這是幾個季度的問題。這對我們來說不是一個長期的挑戰。這是一個短期的周期性問題。因此，這應該會告知您如何在一年中對其進行預測。

And then on the market side, given the uncertainty at this point, our planning assumption is that the weakness in the market lasts through the fiscal year. Clearly, if the market improves, we'll see that as upside. But at this point, we're going to plan based on current scale of the market. So if you take kind of current expectations and apply that framework to the year, that should hopefully inform how you do the forecast for the second quarter and also for the full year.

然後在市場方面，鑑於目前的不確定性，我們的計劃假設是市場疲軟會持續整個財年。顯然，如果市場好轉，我們會認為這是有利的。但在這一點上，我們要根據目前的市場規模進行規劃。因此，如果您採用當前的預期並將該框架應用於今年，那麼這有望告知您如何對第二季度和全年進行預測。

Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess I had 2 as well. And if I can start on IoT instead of smartphone. I guess, Akash, you mentioned smart IoT revenues as well moderating sequentially. And I wanted to see if you can now provide a bit more color. You've broken out the sort of IoT business previously into consumer, industrial and edge networking, calling it roughly sort of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3.

我想我也有2個。如果我可以從物聯網而不是智能手機開始。我猜，Akash，你提到了智能物聯網的收入也在依次放緩。我想看看你現在是否可以提供更多顏色。您已經將之前的 IoT 業務分解為消費者、工業和邊緣網絡，大致稱之為 1/3、1/3、1/3。

Now as we start to sort of see some moderation there, can you now talk about the trends in terms of the different sort of subsegments there? And where are you seeing more resilience versus sort of maybe more weakness? And how should we really be sort of projecting that forward? And I have a follow-up.

現在，當我們開始看到那裡有所緩和時，您現在可以談談那裡不同類型的細分市場的趨勢嗎？你在哪裡看到更多的彈性而不是更多的弱點？我們應該如何真正地向前預測？我有一個後續行動。

Sure, Samik. So on IoT, we're obviously pretty happy with the way that business has played out for us. So we've gone from $3 billion in fiscal '20 to $7 billion, $6.9 billion in '22. And then the quarter we reported was a record quarter for IoT at $1.9 billion of revenue. So pretty happy with how the business is doing.

當然，薩米克。因此，在物聯網上，我們顯然對業務為我們發揮作用的方式感到非常滿意。所以我們已經從 20 財年的 30 億美元增加到 22 財年的 70 億美元，即 69 億美元。然後我們報告的季度是物聯網創紀錄的季度，收入為 19 億美元。對業務的運作方式非常滿意。

Now in terms of the macro environment impacting the IoT market overall, and it's less about Qualcomm, it's about the overall macro environment. We're definitely seeing the impact of that on consumer and in some ways synonymous with handsets. Edge networking is holding for us. And we're seeing some minor pockets of weakness in industrial.

現在就影響整個物聯網市場的宏觀環境而言，與高通無關，而是關於整體宏觀環境。我們肯定看到了它對消費者的影響，在某些方面與手機同義。邊緣網絡為我們提供支持。我們在工業領域看到了一些小的弱點。

But overall, I think when you kind of step back and look at where our IoT opportunity exists, for us, it's about digital transformation and about connecting everything to the cloud. And our technology portfolio is perfectly suited to enable various industries to do that. So we feel pretty optimistic longer term.

但總的來說，我認為當你退後一步，看看我們的物聯網機會存在於哪裡時，對我們來說，這關乎數字化轉型以及將一切連接到雲。我們的技術組合非常適合使各個行業都能做到這一點。因此，從長遠來看，我們感到相當樂觀。

Okay. Okay. All right. And for my follow-up, I mean, I think Cristiano and Akash, you both sort of talked about the content opportunity around Snapdragon and even sort of around fiscal '23 in the handset market. A lot of the pushback that we get from investors around that could really drive, particularly as we think about a weaker macro setup, is OEMs opting to use sort of previous generation Snapdragon chipsets and continue to sort of prioritize price in the market to make it much more affordable for consumers to buy smartphones to -- so as to trigger sort of volumes or help volumes in the market.

好的。好的。好的。對於我的後續行動，我的意思是，我認為 Cristiano 和 Akash，你們都談到了圍繞 Snapdragon 的內容機會，甚至談到了手機市場的 23 財年。我們從周圍的投資者那裡得到的很多阻力可能會真正推動，特別是當我們考慮到一個較弱的宏觀設置時，OEM 選擇使用某種上一代 Snapdragon 芯片組並繼續在市場上優先考慮價格以實現它消費者購買智能手機的價格要便宜得多——從而觸發某種銷量或幫助市場銷量。

I mean, when you think about sort of the fiscal '23, what are your planning assumptions when it comes to content gains or market share gains and how confident are few of OEMs not sort of sticking to prior generation chipsets just to be able to optimize the price/cost equation here?

我的意思是，當您考慮 23 財年時，您在內容收益或市場份額收益方面的計劃假設是什麼，以及很少有 OEM 不堅持使用上一代芯片組只是為了能夠優化這裡的價格/成本方程？

Thanks for the question, Samik. Let me start by giving you a direct answer. The design activity we have for next-generation Snapdragon is not showing that. It's showing that, as we expect in the mobile market, especially on the premium tier, it's about a flagship product every year.

謝謝你的問題，薩米克。讓我先給你一個直接的答案。我們為下一代 Snapdragon 進行的設計活動並未顯示這一點。它表明，正如我們在移動市場上所期望的那樣，尤其是在高端市場，它每年都是一款旗艦產品。

Soon, I think we're going to announce our next-generation Snapdragon in our Tech Summit in a couple of weeks, and I think design traction is very, very high. I think what we see right now is, structurally, we're very well positioned. If you look of the agreement we have with Samsung, plus the change of OEM landscape in China and how that positions Snapdragon as the premium and high-tier device, I think we're just going to see the fluctuations on the market size and how we deal in the short term with the inventory.

很快，我認為我們將在幾週後的技術峰會上宣布我們的下一代 Snapdragon，我認為設計牽引力非常非常高。我認為我們現在看到的是，在結構上，我們處於非常有利的位置。如果你看看我們與三星的協議，再加上中國 OEM 格局的變化，以及如何將 Snapdragon 定位為高端和高端設備，我想我們只會看到市場規模的波動以及如何我們在短期內處理庫存。

But you should assume that the mobile market is going to continue to do its thing and we're going to have a product cycle transition. We expect in the March quarter also to see the benefit of our increased share of Samsung.

但是你應該假設移動市場將繼續做它的事情，我們將有一個產品週期過渡。我們預計在 3 月季度也會看到我們增加三星份額的好處。

Mike Walkley from Canaccord Genuity.

來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

Just more on the planning assumptions for fiscal '23. Do you expect with the macro environment that the handset market shrinks again by double digits from calendar '22 for fiscal '23? And then as a follow-up, I'll just ask them both now. In terms of OpEx with the down sequentially, is this an area that you expect more OpEx cuts as you get into seasonally slower quarters? Or kind of flattish off this level?

更多關於 23 財年的規劃假設。在宏觀環境下，您是否預計手機市場會從 22 財年到 23 財年再次萎縮兩位數？然後作為後續行動，我現在就問他們兩個。就按順序下降的 OpEx 而言，隨著您進入季節性放緩的季度，您是否預計該領域會出現更多的 OpEx 削減？或者在這個水平上有點平淡？

Mike, it's Akash. For fiscal '23, our market assumption is that the kind of the weak market we're seeing in the September-December quarter carries on to the rest of fiscal '23. And so we're not using the first half of calendar '22 as the basis but really kind of the current, say, scale of the market carrying forward. So that's our base assumption. And clearly, there is unpredictability and variance around it, but that's the planning assumption we're using for now.

邁克，我是阿卡什。對於 23 財年，我們的市場假設是，我們在 9 月至 12 月季度看到的那種疲軟的市場會延續到 23 財年的剩餘時間。因此，我們不是以 22 年的上半年為基礎，而是以當前的市場規模為基礎。這就是我們的基本假設。顯然，它周圍存在不可預測性和變化，但這是我們目前使用的規劃假設。

On the OpEx side, as we deal with the short-term headwinds, we're clearly taking decisive action on things that we control. As Cristiano mentioned, we've implemented a hiring freeze. We're reducing our spend in mature businesses, including handsets and SG&A. And then we're optimizing our R&D investments to increase focus on automotive and IoT, which is obviously the core of our strategy on diversification.

在運營支出方面，當我們應對短期逆風時，我們顯然正在對我們控制的事情採取果斷行動。正如克里斯蒂亞諾所說，我們已經實施了招聘凍結。我們正在減少對成熟業務的支出，包括手機和 SG&A。然後我們正在優化我們的研發投資，以增加對汽車和物聯網的關注，這顯然是我們多元化戰略的核心。

And then finally, the way to think about fiscal '23 OpEx is we expect it will come in below fiscal '22 exit run rate. So we're clearly taking action on OpEx from that perspective.

最後，考慮 23 財年運營支出的方式是我們預計它將低於 22 財年的退出運行率。因此，我們顯然正在從這個角度對 OpEx 採取行動。

Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

I want to ask a little bit about March quarter. So you're saying that the inventory flush lasts a couple of quarters. You said more than half of it is done in December quarter. It seems like there's a good chunk that's still coming in March. But at the same time, you also, Cristiano, just talked about the incremental Samsung volume starting to ramp in March.

我想問一些關於 3 月季度的問題。所以你說庫存沖洗持續了幾個季度。你說一半以上是在 12 月季度完成的。似乎還有一大塊還在三月到來。但與此同時，克里斯蒂亞諾，你也談到了三星在 3 月份開始增長的銷量。

How do we think about the interplay of those 2 things? Is the Samsung volume enough to offset some of that channel flush that we're still seeing in March? I mean you said big customers are changing some of their inventory plans. Are -- is Samsung one of those big customers? Is it -- it doesn't sound like it's just isolated to China.

我們如何看待這兩件事的相互作用？三星的銷量是否足以抵消我們在 3 月份仍然看到的一些渠道沖洗？我的意思是你說大客戶正在改變他們的一些庫存計劃。是——三星是那些大客戶之一嗎？是嗎 - 聽起來不像是孤立於中國。

Just anything you can give us about like some of those drivers, both positive and negative, as they're going to the market would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

您可以向我們提供的任何信息，例如其中一些驅動因素，無論是積極的還是消極的，因為他們將進入市場會有所幫助。然後我有一個跟進。

Sure, Stacy. It's Akash. So from a March quarter perspective, you're right, the benefit from the Samsung launch for the new phone would be in the -- in kind of the second half of the March quarter. So it comes in towards the end of the quarter, but that will be an advantage, whereas our share from 75% in G S22 goes up to global share in G S23.

當然，斯泰西。是阿卡什。因此，從 3 月季度的角度來看，您是對的，三星推出新手機的好處將在 3 月季度的下半年。所以它會在本季度末出現，但這將是一個優勢，而我們在 G S22 中的份額從 75% 上升到 G S23 的全球份額。

In terms of inventory adjustment, I think you're right the way you heard it. You have an impact of $0.80 in the first quarter, and it's more than half. So we do expect to have some impact from that going into second quarter as well. And then your last question on whether it's just the Chinese or Samsung and others adjusting inventory, it's really across the industry.

在庫存調整方面，我認為您是對的。您在第一季度的影響為 0.80 美元，超過了一半。因此，我們確實預計到第二季度也會產生一些影響。然後你的最後一個問題是中國還是三星等調整庫存，這確實是整個行業的問題。

All right. That's helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the QTL run rate. So I get the market's weak. But presumably, Apple should be stronger than the rest of the market into December. And usually, that gives a pretty big lift. It implies that Android must be really bad in the December quarter, unless there's something else going on.

好的。這很有幫助。對於我的後續，我想詢問 QTL 運行率。所以我得到了市場的疲軟。但據推測，到 12 月，蘋果應該會比其他市場更強勁。通常，這會帶來很大的提升。這意味著 Android 在 12 月季度肯定非常糟糕，除非有其他事情發生。

Can you just verify there's nothing else going on, no collection issues or anything like that? Is it just purely sort of Android market-related that's driving the run rate down? So I think it used to be around $1.7 billion in December quarter, and you're guiding about $150 million light.

你能確認沒有其他事情發生，沒有收集問題或類似的事情嗎？只是純粹的與 Android 市場相關的因素導致運行率下降嗎？所以我認為它過去在 12 月季度約為 17 億美元，而你正在指導大約 1.5 億美元的光。

Yes. Purely driven by market and mix functions. It has nothing to do with any other issue overall. Now just to highlight a couple of things for the QTL numbers in the December quarter. At this point, we are not expecting normal seasonal volume increase into December. So maybe one of the disconnects or questions you might have on the variance between those 2 numbers, $1.7 billion versus $1.55 billion, is driven by that assumption.

是的。純粹由市場和混合功能驅動。它與總體上的任何其他問題無關。現在只是為了強調 12 月季度的 QTL 數字的幾件事。在這一點上，我們預計到 12 月的季節性銷量不會正常增長。因此，對於這兩個數字（17 億美元與 15.5 億美元）之間的差異，您可能會遇到的脫節或問題之一可能是由該假設驅動的。

And then second, I'd say is we do have FX impact that shows up in QTL. I highlighted in my script on a year-over-year basis, that's an impact of approximately $50 million that's included in our guidance.

其次，我想說的是我們確實有 QTL 中出現的 FX 影響。我在我的劇本中逐年強調了這一點，我們的指導中包含了大約 5000 萬美元的影響。

Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

Akash, I want to go into the margin side of things. And I know you guys don't guide overtly to the gross margin side, but we can kind of back into generally where it is. So within that $0.80 hit to the fiscal first quarter guidance, is there anything going on with charges on the gross margin side? Because the same sort of question that Stacy just asked on the revenue side for the March quarter will likely apply when people work through their models on the gross margin side. Should we expect a snapback there? Is it a onetime thing? Any sort of progression on the profitability would be helpful.

阿卡什，我想進入事情的邊緣。而且我知道你們不會公開指導毛利率方面，但我們可以回到一般情況下。因此，在第一財季指引的 0.80 美元打擊範圍內，毛利率方面的收費有什麼變化嗎？因為當人們在毛利率方面研究他們的模型時，Stacy 剛剛在 3 月季度的收入方面提出的同樣的問題可能會適用。我們應該期待那裡的回彈嗎？是一次性的嗎？任何形式的盈利能力進步都會有所幫助。

Yes. So first, Ross, on your direct question, there isn't a set of charges that are included in the number that's anything significant. So that's the base assumption. The second thing I would say is if you look at where we guided our fourth fiscal quarter and where we came in, we actually did significantly better than our guidance. And then where we are guiding the first quarter is really in line with the guidance we had given for fourth quarter.

是的。所以首先，羅斯，關於你的直接問題，這個數字中沒有包含任何重要的費用。所以這是基本假設。我要說的第二件事是，如果你看看我們指導第四財季的地方以及我們進入的地方，我們實際上做得比我們的指導好得多。然後我們指導第一季度的地方實際上與我們為第四季度提供的指導一致。

So nothing specifically to look at there. We're kind of navigating through the environment. And then over the last couple of years, as I said earlier, we are pretty happy with the way we've navigated through foundry price increases as well. So focus for us is staying disciplined on the pricing side and kind of taking advantage of the technology and products we have to improve our market share.

所以沒有什麼特別要看的。我們有點在環境中導航。然後在過去的幾年裡，正如我之前所說，我們也對我們在代工價格上漲中的導航方式感到非常滿意。因此，我們的重點是在定價方面保持紀律，並利用我們必須提高市場份額的技術和產品。

And I guess as my follow-up, I just wanted to hit on the automotive side. I guess kind of a 2-part question. In the near term, you didn't mention that as being down. So I assume -- is it safe to assume that that's going up? And then there's a general concern across the broader automotive ecosystem that it too will deal with the macro headwinds.

我想作為我的後續行動，我只是想在汽車方面有所作為。我想這是一個兩部分的問題。在短期內，你沒有提到它正在下降。所以我假設 - 假設它正在上升是否安全？然後在更廣泛的汽車生態系統中普遍存在一個擔憂，即它也將應對宏觀逆風。

I know you guys have a ton of market share gains. We're all in New York at your auto tech day. So I get that longer term. But are you seeing any evidence at all that the macro conditions might slow that -- the pace of that ramp that you're expecting over the next year or so?

我知道你們有大量的市場份額增長。在您的汽車技術日，我們都在紐約。所以我得到了更長的時間。但是你有沒有看到任何證據表明宏觀條件可能會減緩——你預計明年左右的增長速度？

So let me give you the first answer. The way you should think about our auto, we have been -- you have the telematics business. Then you have the digital cockpit that was a big component of the design pipeline, and those are turning into revenue. And then the next one after that is ADAS. So we expect the story of Qualcomm automotive has been about the pipeline materializing into revenues and continue to generate growth, less impacted by the short-term markets. I don't know, Akash, if you want to add anything.

所以讓我給你第一個答案。您應該考慮我們汽車的方式，我們一直是 - 您擁有遠程信息處理業務。然後你就有了作為設計流程重要組成部分的數字駕駛艙，這些都正在轉化為收入。之後的下一個是 ADAS。因此，我們預計高通汽車的故事一直是關於實現收入並繼續產生增長的管道，受短期市場的影響較小。我不知道，Akash，如果你想添加任何東西。

I'll just say, kind of as you think about our auto business, it's all about new car launches and how the adoption of our solutions kind of helps our revenue as the cars launch. So that's really the primary driver versus the overall size of the market.

我只想說，就像您考慮我們的汽車業務一樣，這一切都與新車發布有關，以及採用我們的解決方案如何在汽車發佈時幫助我們的收入。所以這確實是與市場整體規模相比的主要驅動因素。

And it will be up sequentially in the first quarter? Just to clarify your guidance.

它會在第一季度環比上漲嗎？只是為了澄清你的指導。

Our guidance was that we said for IoT and handsets, it will be down. We were quiet on auto, which implies it's not going to be down.

我們的指導是，我們說物聯網和手機會下降。我們對汽車保持安靜，這意味著它不會下降。

Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about when you think the inventory built because it seems like you were on allocation until just a few months ago. Like do you think people were able to kind of get ahead of that and build inventory while it was still tight? Or did all that inventory build in a relatively short period of time, which would say that the recent numbers might be kind of overstated relative to demand?

我想知道您是否可以談談您認為庫存何時建立，因為直到幾個月前您似乎還在分配。您是否認為人們能夠在庫存仍然緊張的情況下領先一步並建立庫存？還是所有這些庫存都是在相對較短的時間內建立起來的，這表明最近的數字相對於需求可能有點誇大了？

Yes. So it's Akash. That's a fair question. So if you really think about our last earnings, one of the things we said was we expected customers to be cautious with their purchases in the second half of '22. But since then, what has happened really is the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, and we went from a period of supply shortages to demand declines. And it's kind of an unprecedented change over a short period of time.

是的。所以是阿卡什。這是一個公平的問題。因此，如果您真的考慮我們的上一次收益，我們所說的其中一件事是我們希望客戶在 22 年下半年對他們的購買保持謹慎。但從那以後，真正發生的是宏觀經濟環境惡化，我們從供應短缺到需求下降。在短時間內，這是一種前所未有的變化。

And what you're seeing is really OEMs responding to that and making a change in their inventory policy and now drawing down on inventory. So that's the impact that we're seeing in the December quarter that we sized at approximately $0.80. If you also think about the seasonality, you typically expect December quarter to be a growth quarter as people build inventory going into the holiday season. And what we're seeing is the opposite. So it does kind of come as a surprise in terms of how quickly the environment changed.

你所看到的是真正的原始設備製造商對此做出反應並改變他們的庫存政策，現在正在減少庫存。這就是我們在 12 月季度看到的影響，我們估計約為 0.80 美元。如果您還考慮季節性因素，您通常預計 12 月季度將是一個增長季度，因為人們在假期期間會增加庫存。而我們所看到的恰恰相反。因此，就環境變化的速度而言，確實有點令人驚訝。

Great. And then if I could follow up, what are you seeing on the pricing side in the more competitive markets, particularly in China? Is that the same as you've described? Or is there kind of incremental competition as you come out of a tight supply situation?

偉大的。然後，如果我可以跟進，您對競爭更加激烈的市場（尤其是中國）的定價方面有何看法？和你描述的一樣嗎？或者，當您擺脫供應緊張的局面時，是否存在某種增量競爭？

No additional comments to what I just said. I mean gross margin question that I answered kind of really factored. It's more of a pricing question than anything else, and those comments still apply.

對我剛才所說的沒有額外的評論。我的意思是我回答的毛利率問題確實很重要。這更像是一個定價問題，這些評論仍然適用。

Lou Miscioscia from Daiwa.

來自大和的 Lou Miscioscia。

This is a longer-term question. I guess some news came out a little while ago from Ford [in VM] that they're closing down Argo. And also one of the big self-driving ADAS pioneers, Levandowski, actually seems to change his view. Realize that you guys just had the auto day, which is great, and you're really looking out to 2026. But just any comments on this and that how difficult it will be actually to stick to the prior time frame that you had originally talked about at the auto day?

這是一個長期的問題。我猜不久前福特（在 VM 中）傳出了一些消息，他們正在關閉 Argo。而且，自動駕駛 ADAS 的大型先驅之一 Levandowski 實際上似乎改變了他的看法。意識到你們剛剛度過了汽車日，這很棒，而且你們真的很期待 2026 年。但是對此的任何評論，以及堅持你們最初談論的先前時間框架實際上是多麼困難關於汽車日？

Very good. Thanks for your question, Lou. The way you should think about our ADAS platform, and it's part of the Snapdragon Digital Chassis, we're really focused on scaling the technology and technology that has commercial applications. We really scale from Level 2 all the way to Level 3 plus. And we're not -- the market, I think, it's still -- for robotaxis, I think, is still a future market.

很好。謝謝你的問題，婁。您應該考慮我們的 ADAS 平台，它是 Snapdragon 數字機箱的一部分，我們真正專注於擴展具有商業應用的技術和技術。我們真的從 2 級一直擴展到 3 級以上。而且我們不是——市場，我認為，它仍然——因為機器人出租車，我認為，仍然是一個未來的市場。

We're really focused on attaching ADAS to every car. I think that's what has been the key driver of our design wins, and that's why we're winning across brands and across tiers for all the ones we announced.

我們真正專注於將 ADAS 安裝到每輛車上。我認為這就是我們設計獲勝的關鍵驅動力，這就是為什麼我們在我們宣布的所有產品中都在跨品牌和跨層獲勝。

And we feel pretty bullish about ADAS materializing from the pipeline into revenues in the next few years. And you have to start thinking about that as they're multi-different levels of ADAS, starting with mandatory in-cap camera, all the way to highway autopilot. And we're really focused in that part of the market. That's where scale is.

我們非常看好 ADAS 在未來幾年內從管道中實現收入。你必須開始考慮這一點，因為它們是多個不同級別的 ADAS，從強制性的內置攝像頭開始，一直到高速公路自動駕駛儀。我們真的專注於市場的那一部分。這就是規模的所在。

Blayne Curtis from Barclays.

來自巴克萊的 Blayne Curtis。

I actually had 2, and I apologize if you kind of answered this, but I wanted to ask it again. Just in terms of the weakness, clearly, Android has a lot of inventory to work through. Just kind of curious if you're baking in any non-Android softness or there's been concerns about production and such? I know it's a tough customer to answer, but is there a way you could talk about what you're embedding for the handset business, both Android and iOS?

我實際上有2個，如果你回答了這個問題，我很抱歉，但我想再問一次。就弱點而言，顯然，Android 有很多庫存需要解決。只是有點好奇，如果您在任何非 Android 軟件中烘焙，或者對生產等有顧慮？我知道這是一個很難回答的客戶，但是你有沒有辦法談論你為手機業務嵌入的內容，包括 Android 和 iOS？

Yes. I think the adjustment we talked about is primarily Android. So that's how you should think about it.

是的。我認為我們談到的調整主要是Android。所以你應該這樣想。

Perfect. And then I was just kind of curious, the thought process on rolling in the RF business. I know this is a big TAM for you guys, and you've made a lot of good progress in kind of penetrating that. So I'm just kind of curious, if you just walk through the thought of rolling that back in starting next year.

完美的。然後我有點好奇，關於射頻業務的思考過程。我知道這對你們來說是一個很大的 TAM，而且你們在滲透方面取得了很大的進步。所以我只是有點好奇，如果你只是考慮一下從明年開始將其退回的想法。

Sure. So when you look at our RF front-end business, it's kind of an end-to-end modem-to-antenna development cycle. And because of that, we've become the #1 player in handsets already. When we look forward, the way we think about the growth in the business is it's driving 5G further into handsets and Wi-Fi 7 but also into automotive and IoT.

當然。因此，當您查看我們的射頻前端業務時，它是一種端到端的調製解調器到天線的開發週期。正因為如此，我們已經成為手機領域的第一大玩家。展望未來，我們對業務增長的看法是，它將 5G 進一步推動到手機和 Wi-Fi 7 以及汽車和物聯網。

In one of the new disclosures we gave, and you'll see this in our web slides, in fiscal '22, we had $137 million in auto RF front-end revenue, and we have a design win pipeline of greater than $900 million. And then within IoT, we have RF front-end revenue of $405 million.

在我們提供的一項新披露中，您將在我們的網絡幻燈片中看到這一點，在 22 財年，我們的汽車射頻前端收入為 1.37 億美元，我們的設計贏得管道超過 9 億美元。然後在物聯網中，我們的射頻前端收入為 4.05 億美元。

So those numbers are becoming of scale. And generally, still, it was mostly handsets. We kept it separate. But I think we're getting to a point where there -- it's becoming at scale within automotive and IoT. And so we thought the change in the revenue streams was -- this was the right time to do it.

因此，這些數字正在變得規模化。一般來說，仍然主要是手機。我們把它分開了。但我認為我們已經到了一個地步——它在汽車和物聯網中變得規模化。所以我們認為收入流的變化是——現在是做這件事的正確時機。

Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

I had 2. I guess the first one is on Apple. You did update that you now expect the vast majority of the launch in 2023 for you to be in the product. That's not a big surprise, I think, to most people. And you said that by 2025 that you'll be out of the products, but you used the word product. So I just want to clarify that you are still assuming that once they don't need your modem anymore that they will still pay you a royalty for said patents?

我有 2 個。我猜第一個在 Apple 上。您確實更新了，您現在預計 2023 年發布的大部分內容都將包含在該產品中。我認為，對於大多數人來說，這並不是什麼大驚喜。你說到 2025 年你將不再使用產品，但你使用了產品這個詞。所以我只是想澄清一下，您仍然假設一旦他們不再需要您的調製解調器，他們仍然會為所述專利向您支付版稅？

This is Cristiano. The licensing business is completely independent of whether or not we supply a modem to them. So your assumption is correct. We expect to continue to have licensing revenues. And I think consistent with what we said in the past, we're focused on our strategy on long-term customers, and we just can assume that our planning assumption is we don't have any visibility and continue to provide the modem in '25.

這是克里斯蒂亞諾。許可業務完全獨立於我們是否向他們提供調製解調器。所以你的假設是正確的。我們預計將繼續獲得許可收入。而且我認為與我們過去所說的一致，我們專注於我們的長期客戶戰略，我們可以假設我們的計劃假設是我們沒有任何可見性並繼續提供調製解調器' 25.

Perfect. And then I guess also, Akash, I had a question on the financial model for QCT. I know you gave it a year ago, and things have changed a lot since then. At the time, you were sort of implying if you sort of ran the growth rate out to '24, it was sort of implying a $40 billion QCT revenue out in 2024. You're now down to sort of $8 billion a quarter, so you're now run rating more like $32 billion.

完美的。然後我想，Akash，我對 QCT 的財務模型有疑問。我知道你在一年前給了它，從那以後情況發生了很大變化。當時，你有點暗示如果你把增長率跑到 24 年，那有點暗示到 2024 年 QCT 收入將達到 400 億美元。你現在每季度下降到 80 億美元，所以你現在的運行評級更像是 320 億美元。

Do you still feel confident that you can get back next year into the $10 billion a quarter that would get you to that $40 billion financial model next year?

你是否仍然有信心在明年回到每季度 100 億美元的水平，從而讓你在明年達到 400 億美元的財務模式？

Yes. So as I'm sure you know, we just delivered $38 billion of revenue for fiscal '22 for QCT. And so our strategy is unchanged. We are executing so far well ahead of target. And so really what we're focused on right now is navigating the current environment. No updates to our Investor Day targets.

是的。所以我相信你知道，我們剛剛為 QCT 提供了 22 財年 380 億美元的收入。所以我們的策略沒有改變。到目前為止，我們的執行遠遠領先於目標。所以我們現在真正關注的是在當前環境中導航。我們的投資者日目標沒有更新。

Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I wanted to ask just the extent to which Qualcomm thinks they're under-shipping demand in the December quarter. And maybe just factoring in the weak outlook for December, and I think you talked about the flagship ramp with Samsung in the March quarter. Is it fair to assume the December quarter is a trough for Qualcomm this cycle? I mean any perspective there as we look through that fiscal '23 would be very helpful.

我想問一下高通認為他們在 12 月季度的出貨量不足的程度。也許只是考慮到 12 月的疲軟前景，我想你談到了三星在 3 月季度推出的旗艦產品。假設 12 月季度是高通本週期的低谷是否公平？我的意思是，當我們回顧 23 財年時，任何觀點都會非常有幫助。

Yes. Brett, from an inventory drawdown perspective, we definitely see first quarter as the bottom. As we said, more than 50% of the inventory drawdown, we think, happened in the first quarter. And so that hopefully answers the question you were asking.

是的。布雷特，從庫存縮減的角度來看，我們絕對認為第一季度是底部。正如我們所說，我們認為超過 50% 的庫存下降發生在第一季度。因此，希望能回答您提出的問題。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on China. I mean it's something that certainly is on a lot of investor minds. How does Qualcomm feel about your position in the region, particularly with the geopolitics that's happening right now? Do you see risks here long term to the business? Or is there scope for growth in China? Any perspective there would be much appreciated.

好的。也許只是對中國的跟進。我的意思是，這肯定是很多投資者的想法。高通如何看待你在該地區的地位，尤其是目前正在發生的地緣政治？您認為這裡的業務長期存在風險嗎？還是在中國有發展空間？任何觀點都將不勝感激。

Thanks for the question. Look, we -- the latest set of restrictions, we were not impacted by those. And we have seen our business in China to continue to expand, especially as we grew into auto and IoT. We see corresponding expansion of those business in China as well.

謝謝你的問題。看，我們 - 最新的一組限制，我們沒有受到這些影響。我們已經看到我們在中國的業務繼續擴大，尤其是隨著我們發展到汽車和物聯網領域。我們也看到這些業務在中國的相應擴張。

I think we have a global position. I think we -- it's one global standard, especially when you think about the mobile market in 5G. And we look at a position that we have in China as one that is pretty stable right now. It's very difficult to predict this environment. But so far, I think, continue to be a strong business for Qualcomm with growth opportunities. And we're hopeful that the extended lockdown will end soon, and that's going to have likely a positive impact on the size of the phone market.

我認為我們擁有全球地位。我認為我們 - 這是一項全球標準，尤其是當您考慮 5G 的移動市場時。我們將我們在中國的地位視為目前相當穩定的地位。很難預測這種環境。但到目前為止，我認為，對於高通來說，它仍然是一個具有增長機會的強大業務。我們希望延長的鎖定期能很快結束，這可能會對手機市場的規模產生積極影響。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Amon, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

今天的問答環節到此結束。阿蒙先生，在暫停通話之前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Thank you, everyone, for listening to the call. I just want to say a big thank you to all of our employees and partners that are helping us through the incredible fiscal '22 and how we navigate to fiscal '23.

是的。謝謝大家收聽電話。我只想非常感謝我們所有的員工和合作夥伴，他們幫助我們度過了令人難以置信的 '22 財年，以及我們如何邁向 '23 財年。

Just a few comments. When you step back from the current short-term macroeconomics and this temporary cyclical inventory drawdown, we feel that Qualcomm is very well positioned. A lot of the trends continue to point to our technology road map. You need connectivity, advanced processing and artificial intelligence at the edge.

只是一些評論。當你從當前的短期宏觀經濟和這種暫時的周期性庫存下降中退出時，我們認為高通處於非常有利的位置。許多趨勢繼續指向我們的技術路線圖。您需要邊緣連接、高級處理和人工智能。

And as we outlined in the script, we see that everything is on track, including expanding design for our Windows on Snapdragon, wafer custom CPU, their ability to continue to materialize the auto as well as IoT and industrial IoT and the digital transformation has proven to be overall resilient in the long term.

正如我們在腳本中概述的那樣，我們看到一切都在按計劃進行，包括擴展我們在 Snapdragon 上的 Windows 的設計、晶圓定制 CPU、它們繼續實現汽車以及物聯網和工業物聯網的能力以及數字化轉型已經證明長期保持整體彈性。

So we will be decisive in managing operating expenses and especially if the downturn gets steeper or more prolonged than we expect. But I would like to remind everyone that the current inventory is a cyclical adjustment that has no impact on the underlying long-term earnings power of the company. And we're have -- we're well on our way, executing our growth strategy and all the fundamentals remain in place. Thank you so much.

因此，我們將決定性地管理運營費用，尤其是在經濟衰退比我們預期的更嚴重或更持久的情況下。但我要提醒大家的是，目前的庫存是周期性調整，對公司潛在的長期盈利能力沒有影響。而且我們已經 - 我們正在順利執行我們的增長戰略，所有基本面都保持不變。太感謝了。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。