高通 (QCOM) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Qualcomm fourth-quarter and FY16 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加高通公司第四季及2016財年業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 2, 2016. The playback number for today's call is 855-859-2056. International callers please dial 404-537-3406. The playback reservation number is 953-135-44. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr Sinnott, please go ahead.

提醒各位，本次會議將於2016年11月2日進行錄製。今天電話會議的回放號碼是 855-859-2056。國際來電者請撥 404-537-3406。播放預約號碼是 953-135-44。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁約翰辛諾特。辛諾特先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Brent. Good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf, Derek Aberle and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and an executive presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. This call is also being webcast on Qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on the website later today.

謝謝你，布倫特。大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括史蒂夫·莫倫科普夫、德里克·阿伯勒和喬治·戴維斯的準備好的演講。此外，克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙和唐·羅森伯格也將參加問答環節。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站，查看我們的獲利報告和本次電話會議的簡報。本次電話會議也在 Qualcomm.com 網站上進行網路直播，稍後將在網站上提供重播。

During this conference call, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. You can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將使用G條例定義的非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的網站上找到與GAAP相關的調節表。

In addition, we will be making forward-looking statements including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or our business or financial results. Actual events or results could different materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-K, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

此外，我們將發表前瞻性聲明，包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢，或我們的業務或財務表現的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與前瞻性聲明中預測的內容有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格，其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的重要因素。

Now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

接下來請高通執行長史蒂夫·莫倫科夫發表評論。

Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered strong results this quarter, with better than expected earnings per share, reflecting continued disciplined execution on the strategy we outlined last year. We had a very productive year. QCT delivered the improved operating margin target we set last year. QTL made additional progress on new license agreements in China.

謝謝你，約翰。大家下午好。本季我們取得了強勁的業績，每股收益超出預期，這反映出我們繼續嚴格執行去年制定的策略。我們度過了碩果累累的一年。QCT實現了我們去年設定的提高營業利潤率目標。QTL在中國的新授權協議方面取得了進一步進展。

Last week, we announced our agreement to acquire NXP, an established global leader in industrial grade computing, security, sensors, RF, and networking. The proposed NXP acquisition accelerates our strategy in growth areas, with complementary and world-class technology, products, customer relationships and strong sales channels across automotive, IoT, security, and networking.

上週，我們宣布了收購 NXP 的協議，NXP 是工業級運算、安全性、感測器、射頻和網路領域的全球領導者。擬議的 NXP 收購將加速我們在成長領域的策略，憑藉互補的世界一流技術、產品、客戶關係和強大的銷售管道，涵蓋汽車、物聯網、安全和網路等領域。

Our strategy and disciplined execution has put us in an excellent position to maintain our leading position in mobile and strengthen it into the next wave of growth. We continue to invest in technology leadership. Just as we led each mobile technology transition from 2G to 3G, 3G to 4G LTE, we are leading the way to 5G. Further, 5G will be the communications fabric for our emerging hyper-connected world.

我們的策略和嚴謹的執行使我們處於非常有利的地位，能夠保持我們在行動領域的領先地位，並在下一波成長浪潮中鞏固這一地位。我們將繼續投資於技術領先地位。正如我們引領了從 2G 到 3G、從 3G 到 4G LTE 的每一次行動技術轉型一樣，我們正在引領 5G 的發展。此外，5G將成為我們這個新興的超互聯世界的通訊基礎。

In our licensing business, we continue to execute well, as we enable the industry to benefit from the tremendous opportunities around the world, including in China. We have now signed license agreements with nine of the top 10 largest Chinese OEMs according to calendar second-quarter 2016 global IDC data. We expect to continue to sign additional licenses with Chinese OEMs and increase the level of compliance throughout FY17.

在我們的授權業務方面，我們繼續保持良好的執行力，使整個行業能夠從世界各地（包括中國）的巨大機會中受益。根據IDC 2016年第二季全球數據，我們目前已與排名前十的中國OEM廠商中的九家簽署了授權協議。我們預計在 2017 財年繼續與中國 OEM 廠商簽署更多授權協議，並提高合規水準。

Looking ahead, we are very excited about the future. We have spent the last 30 years interconnecting people. We will spend the next 30 years interconnecting their worlds by building on our mobile technology leadership in advanced computing, connectivity, and communications systems. Our priority growth segments, IoT, automotive and networking, are being transformed by mobile technologies. Our proposed acquisition of NXP and our 5G leadership further accelerates our positions in these segments.

展望未來，我們感到非常興奮。過去30年，我們一直致力於人與人之間的連結。未來 30 年，我們將憑藉在先進計算、連接和通訊系統方面的行動技術領先地位，將他們的世界連接起來。我們的優先成長領域——物聯網、汽車和網路——正在被行動技術所改變。我們擬議收購恩智浦以及我們在 5G 領域的領先地位，將進一步鞏固我們在這些領域的地位。

As evidenced by our fiscal fourth-quarter results, we continue to drive operational and financial discipline to execute on our strategy to create a competitive cost structure. We continue to focus our investments in new growth areas. As we've executed this strategy to drive profitable growth, we have maintained our strong balance sheet and commitment to attractive capital returns, returning $6.9 billion to stockholders this fiscal year and $21 billion over the last two years. We believe we are on a path to build Qualcomm into the semiconductor engine for the connected world.

從我們第四財季的業績可以看出，我們將繼續推動營運和財務方面的嚴格管理，以執行我們的策略，打造具有競爭力的成本結構。我們將繼續把投資重點放在新的成長領域。在執行這項策略以推動獲利成長的過程中，我們保持了強勁的資產負債表和對具有吸引力的資本回報的承諾，本財年已向股東返還了 69 億美元，過去兩年已返還了 210 億美元。我們相信，我們正在將高通打造成為互聯世界的半導體引擎。

Turning to our QCT business, we continue to invest to lead the industry. In the premium tier, the Snapdragon 820 is in more than 150 smartphone and tablet designs, including iconic devices such as: the Samsung Galaxy 7 and 7 Edge; the Xiaomi Mi 5; and LG G5. This past quarter, we announced the follow-on Snapdragon 821 that was recently launched in Google's Pixel. In October, we hosted our annual 4G/5G Summit in Hong Kong, where we announced new products in the high and mid tier segments with the Snapdragon 653, Snapdragon 626 and Snapdragon 427, designed for enhanced experiences and improved connectivity.

談到我們的QCT業務，我們將繼續投資以引領業界。在高階市場，驍龍 820 被應用於超過 150 款智慧型手機和平板電腦設計中，其中包括一些標誌性設備，例如：三星 Galaxy 7 和 7 Edge；小米 Mi 5；以及 LG G5。上個季度，我們發布了驍龍 821 的後續產品，該產品最近已在Google Pixel 手機中推出。10 月，我們在香港舉辦了年度 4G/5G 峰會，會上我們發布了高端和中端市場的新產品，包括驍龍 653、驍龍 626 和驍龍 427，旨在增強用戶體驗和提升連接性能。

All three processors feature the X9 LTE modem capable of 300 megabits per second on the down-link and 150 megabits per second on the up-link. We continue to extend our modem leadership across tiers and lead the industry to 5G. Our Snapdragon X12 LTE modem with features such as carrier aggregation, 4x4 MIMO, and 256-QAM modulation is capable of supporting 600 megabits per second on the down-link. Recently, T-Mobile launched the first 4x4 MIMO technology service with the Galaxy S7 and S7 Edge and has publicly talked about plans for implementing 256-QAM in the near future. SKT and Telstra have launched similar capabilities. We expect to soon see other operators do the same.

這三款處理器均配備了 X9 LTE 數據機，下行鏈路速度可達每秒 300 兆位元，上行鏈路速度可達每秒 150 兆位元。我們將繼續鞏固我們在各個層級調變解調器領域的領先地位，引領業界邁向 5G。我們的驍龍 X12 LTE 數據機具有載波聚合、4x4 MIMO 和 256-QAM 調變等功能，能夠在下行鏈路上支援每秒 600 兆位元的速度。最近，T-Mobile 在 Galaxy S7 和 S7 Edge 上推出了首個 4x4 MIMO 技術服務，並公開談論了在不久的將來實施 256-QAM 的計劃。SKT和Telstra也推出了類似的功能。我們預計其他業者很快也會採取同樣的做法。

In February, we announced our Snapdragon X16 modem, capable of gigabit class LTE speeds. We recently announced the world's first gigabit class LTE mobile device and gigabit ready network in collaboration with Telstra, Ericsson, and NETGEAR. This modem also includes support for LAA, the global standard for deploying LTE in unlicensed spectrum. The FCC recently began issuing equipment authorizations for LAA and we received the first.

今年二月，我們發布了驍龍 X16 數據機，其支援千兆級 LTE 速度。我們最近與 Telstra、愛立信和 NETGEAR 合作，發布了全球首款千兆級 LTE 行動裝置和千兆就緒網路。該調變解調器還支援 LAA，這是在免許可頻譜中部署 LTE 的全球標準。美國聯邦通訊委員會最近開始頒發 LAA 設備授權，我們收到了第一份。

We also recently announced our first 5G modem, which will support early 5G trials and deployments. The Snapdragon X50 5G modem is designed to support peak download speeds up to 5 gigabits per second and will initially support 28-gigahertz millimeter-wave spectrum.

我們最近也發布了首款 5G 調變解調器，它將支援早期的 5G 試驗和部署。驍龍 X50 5G 數據機旨在支援高達每秒 5 千兆位元的峰值下載速度，並將首先支援 28 吉赫茲毫米波頻譜。

The first 5G commercial products that will integrate the Snapdragon X50 5G modem are expected to be available during the first half of 2018. In addition, Qualcomm is accelerating the path to 5G NR, the global 5G standard for a 5G new radio standardized by 3GPP. 5G NR is expected to not only enhance mobile broadband services, but also enable connectivity and management for the Internet of Things and new types of mission-critical services. In January, we announced our planned joint venture with TDK to enable delivery of RF front-end modules and RF filters into fully integrated systems for mobile devices and IoT.

首批整合驍龍 X50 5G 數據機的 5G 商用產品預計將於 2018 年上半年上市。此外，高通正在加速邁向 5G NR，這是由 3GPP 制定的 5G 新無線電全球 5G 標準。5G NR 不僅有望增強行動寬頻服務，還能為物聯網和新型關鍵任務服務提供連接和管理。1 月，我們宣布計劃與 TDK 成立合資企業，以便將射頻前端模組和射頻濾波器交付到行動裝置和物聯網的完全整合系統中。

The joint venture will draw upon TDK's capabilities in micro acoustic RF filtering, packaging and module integration technologies and our expertise in advanced wireless technologies to serve customers with leading edge RF solutions into fully integrated systems. In our adjacent businesses, FY16 revenues were up more than 40% year-over-year, driven by growth in auto, networking, and the addition of the CSR business.

該合資企業將利用 TDK 在微聲射頻濾波、封裝和模組整合技術方面的能力以及我們在先進無線技術方面的專業知識，為客戶提供領先的射頻解決方案，並將其整合到系統中。在我們相鄰的業務領域，2016 財年營收年增超過 40%，這主要得益於汽車、網路業務的成長以及新增的 CSR 業務。

For IoT, we are leveraging our leadership in both connectivity and computing to deliver platforms to help accelerate adoption across multiple device types. We offer over 25 platforms that help manufacturers quickly and cost effectively deliver IoT products, including the Snapdragon VR820 virtual reality reference platform and a suite of connected camera solutions.

對於物聯網，我們正在利用我們在連接和運算領域的領先地位，提供平台以幫助加速多種設備類型的採用。我們提供超過 25 個平台，幫助製造商快速、經濟高效地交付物聯網產品，其中包括驍龍 VR820 虛擬實境參考平台和一套連網相機解決方案。

Smartwatches, using Snapdragon Wear processors, continue to be launched or announced. Drones using our Snapdragon Flight platform are already commercially available in the US and China, ahead of the holiday season.

採用驍龍 Wear 處理器的智慧手錶仍在不斷發布或亮相。在假日季節到來之前，採用我們驍龍飛行平台的無人機已經在美國和中國上市。

There is also an increasing trend to use LTE connectivity for IoT. Building off the 100 plus designs we announced in June using the MDM9xO7 LTE modems, we have recent traction among many ecosystem players for the MDM9206 category M1/NB-1 modems featuring a purpose built design for IoT, with lower power consumption and longer range connectivity than previous LTE generations. We are broadening distribution of Snapdragon processors with two announced parts: the 410E and 600E, available globally by third-party distributors.

使用 LTE 連接進行物聯網應用也呈現日益增長的趨勢。繼我們在 6 月宣布的 100 多個採用 MDM9xO7 LTE 調製解調器的設計之後，我們最近在許多生態系統參與者中獲得了 MDM9206 類別 M1/NB-1 調製解調器的關注，該調製解調器專為物聯網而設計，與之前的 LTE 調製解調器的關注，該調製解調器專為物聯網而設計，與之前的 LTE 代相比，功耗更低，連接範圍更遠。我們正在擴大驍龍處理器的分銷範圍，並發布了兩款產品：410E 和 600E，可透過第三方分銷商在全球範圍內購買。

In automotive, we expanded our design win momentum with global automakers across telematics, connectivity, and infotainment. We maintain our position as the leading supplier of modems for telematics, benefiting from increased cellular attach rates in cars and the transition to 4G LTE vehicle solutions. With the pending addition of the NXP business, we will have the breadth of technology and products to capture even more of the opportunity in these rapidly growing adjacent areas.

在汽車領域，我們擴大了與全球汽車製造商在遠端資訊處理、互聯和資訊娛樂方面的設計合作成功勢頭。我們繼續保持著作為車載資訊服務調變解調器領先供應商的地位，受益於汽車蜂窩網路連接率的提高以及向 4G LTE 車載解決方案的過渡。隨著 NXP 業務即將併入，我們將擁有更廣泛的技術和產品範圍，從而在這些快速成長的鄰近領域中抓住更多機會。

To summarize, FY16 has been a very productive year for Qualcomm. Our strong results this quarter reflect the progress on our strategy and disciplined execution for technology leadership in mobile and new growth areas. We are excited about the future as we continue to build Qualcomm as the semiconductor engine for the connected world. I would now like to turn the call over to Derek.

總而言之，2016財年對高通來說是碩果累累的一年。本季強勁的業績反映了我們在行動和新興成長領域中保持技術領先地位的策略進展和嚴謹的執行力。我們對未來充滿信心，並將繼續把高通打造為互聯世界的半導體引擎。現在我想把電話交給德瑞克。

Thank you, Steve. Good afternoon, everyone. As Steve noted, QTL had a strong fiscal fourth quarter. Revenues were $1.9 billion and total reported device sales were $74.2 billion, driven primarily by the conclusion of key license agreements in China, as well as stronger than expected 3G/4G device ASPs. QTL revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter was higher than the prior guidance, based on the timing of concluding the key new license agreement in China.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家下午好。正如史蒂夫指出的那樣，QTL 的第四財季業績表現強勁。營收達 19 億美元，報告設備總銷售額達 742 億美元，主要得益於在中國達成的關鍵授權協議，以及 3G/4G 設備平均售價高於預期。由於在中國達成了一項重要的新授權協議，QTL 第四財季的收入高於先前的預期。

Total reported device sales in the fiscal fourth quarter were also above our prior guidance, with reported 3G/4G device shipments at a record 403 million units and ASPs at $184. QTL continues to make good progress in China, both in terms of signing new license agreements and collecting catch-up amounts for prior-period sales. In our fiscal fourth quarter, we completed new agreements with both VIVO and OPPO and recorded catch-up revenues related to prior-quarter sales, including a significant amount for prior-period three-mode sales.

第四財季報告的設備總銷售額也高於我們先前的預期，其中 3G/4G 設備出貨量創下 4.03 億台的紀錄，平均售價為 184 美元。QTL在中國持續取得良好進展，無論是在簽署新的授權協議方面，或是在收取前期銷售的補繳款項方面。在我們的第四財季，我們與 VIVO 和 OPPO 都完成了新的協議，並確認了與上一季銷售相關的追趕收入，其中包括上一季三模銷售的大量收入。

The externally implied royalty rate in the fiscal fourth quarter was approximately 2.5%, reflecting the impact of the catch-up amounts in the quarter, which included significant royalties from three-mode device shipments and other device shipments in China. In FY16 QTL revenues were $7.66 billion, with total reported device sales of $267.4 billion reflecting continued handset growth, particularly at Chinese OEMs and catch-up amounts for prior-period sales.

第四財季的外部隱含特許權使用費率約為 2.5%，反映了該季度補繳金額的影響，其中包括來自中國三模設備出貨量和其他設備出貨量的巨額特許權使用費。2016 財年，QTL 營收為 76.6 億美元，報告設備總銷售額為 2,674 億美元，反映出手機的持續成長，特別是中國 OEM 的成長以及對前期銷售額的追趕。

The externally implied royalty rate for FY16 was approximately 2.9% as expected. Excluding catch-up amounts related to sales prior to FY16, the multi-year amortization from the agreement that expired after the first quarter of FY16, as well as the acceleration of the license fees for the terminated infrastructure agreement we previously disclosed, we estimate that FY16 QTL revenues would have been approximately $7.2 billion.

2016 財政年度的外部隱含特許權使用費率約為 2.9%，與預期相符。除 2016 財年之前的銷售額相關的追趕金額、2016 財年第一季後到期的協議的多年攤銷，以及我們先前披露的已終止基礎設施協議的許可費加速支付外，我們估計 2016 財年 QTL 的收入約為 72 億美元。

We estimate that we collected royalties on approximately 73% of both three-mode and non-three-mode Chinese OEM global device sales in FY16. As discussed last quarter, we initiated litigation against Meizu in order to protect our rights and equally importantly to prevent Meizu from continuing to compete unfairly against our other licensees that are respectful of intellectual property rights and have entered into license agreements with Qualcomm consistent with the resolution we reached with the NDRC.

我們估計，在 2016 財年，我們對中國 OEM 全球設備銷售額中三模和非三模設備約 73% 收取了專利費。正如上個季度所討論的，我們對魅族提起訴訟，是為了保護我們的權利，同樣重要的是，為了防止魅族繼續與我們其他尊重知識產權並與高通簽訂許可協議的被許可方進行不公平競爭，這些被許可方均與我們和國家發改委達成的決議一致。

In June, we filed complaints against Meizu in the intellectual property courts in both Beijing and Shanghai, China. Last month, we filed a complaint with the United States ITC, a patent infringement action in Germany, and an infringement seizure action in France. Regarding the Korea Fair Trade Commission investigation of our licensing practices, we have submitted an extensive response to the case team's report and are currently in the hearing phase with the commissioners. We have been providing further responses to the case team's report.

今年6月，我們分別在中國北京和上海的智慧財產權法院對魅族提起訴訟。上個月，我們向美國國際貿易委員會提起申訴，在德國提起專利侵權訴訟，並在法國提起侵權扣押訴訟。關於韓國公平交易委員會對我們許可做法的調查，我們已對案件小組的報告提交了詳盡的回應，目前正在與委員們進行聽證。我們已對案件小組的報告作出進一步回應。

Turning to our expectations for global 3G/4G device shipments, in calendar 2016, we estimate 1.625 billion to 1.725 billion devices will be shipped, consistent with our prior forecast, with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 8% at the midpoint. We continue to see a strong 4G ramp in China, as each of the operators pursues aggressive subscriber growth targets with their 4G plus service offerings and design momentum continues to drive an increasing percentage of all-mode devices across China.

展望 2016 年全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量，我們預計出貨量將達到 16.25 億至 17.25 億台，與我們先前的預測一致，其中數值約為 8%。我們看到中國 4G 市場持續強勁成長，各業者都在積極推動 4G Plus 服務，以實現積極的用戶成長目標，同時，設計動能也持續推動全模設備在中國市場佔比不斷提高。

We estimate that the global ASP for handsets shipped during our FY16 was approximately $185, reflecting an annual decline of approximately 6%, which is in line with our prior forecast. As we expected, the year-over-year handset ASP erosion moderated significantly in FY16 to approximately half of the rate we experienced during FY15.

我們估計，2016 財年手機出貨量的全球平均售價約為 185 美元，年減約 6%，這與我們先前的預測一致。正如我們預期的那樣，2016 財年手機平均售價年減幅度顯著放緩，約為 2015 財年下降幅度的一半。

Looking ahead to calendar 2017, we expect continued year-over-year 3G/4G device shipment growth. We estimate 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion devices will be shipped during calendar 2017, with year-over-year unit growth of approximately 7% at the midpoint. We forecast healthy 3G/4G handset shipment growth to continue in calendar 2017, driven primarily by emerging regions, particularly in India.

展望 2017 年，我們預計 3G/4G 設備出貨量將持續年增。我們預計 2017 年全年設備出貨量將達到 17.5 億至 18.5 億台，年成長率約 7%（取中間值）。我們預測，2017 年 3G/4G 手機出貨量將持續維持健康成長，主要受新興地區（尤其是印度）的推動。

We expect that the annual erosion in the ASP for handsets shipped during FY17 will further moderate as compared to FY16, driving mid single-digit year-over-year global handset sales growth. We expect strong growth in 3G/4G connected IoT device shipments in calendar 2017, driven by the increasing demands of industrial and commercial applications within the smart cities, connected home, wearables, and consumer electronics segments. Additionally, several of the world's largest cellular providers are expected to launch commercial operations of scalable narrow band LTE platforms in the coming year.

我們預計，2017 財年手機出貨量的平均售價年減幅度將比 2016 財年進一步放緩，從而推動全球手機銷量實現中等個位數的同比增長。我們預計，在智慧城市、智慧家庭、穿戴式裝置和消費性電子產品領域工業和商業應用需求不斷增長的推動下，2017 年 3G/4G 連接的物聯網設備出貨量將強勁增長。此外，預計明年全球幾家最大的行動電信商將推出可擴展窄帶 LTE 平台的商業營運。

To summarize, we are pleased with the progress we are making in China and continue to see favorable trends for global 3G/4G device sales. We are focused on concluding additional licensing agreements and improving compliance in FY17. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call over to George.

總而言之，我們對在中國的進展感到滿意，並繼續看到全球 3G/4G 設備銷售的良好趨勢。2017 財年，我們將專注於達成更多授權協議並提高合規性。我的發言到此結束。現在我將把通話轉給喬治。

Thank you, Derek. Good afternoon, everyone. I will begin with comments on our fiscal fourth quarter and 2016 results, followed by our first fiscal quarter of 2017 guidance and some perspective on 2017 overall.

謝謝你，德里克。大家下午好。我將首先對我們2016財年第四季和全年業績發表評論，然後對2017財年第一季業績進行展望，並對2017年整體情況進行一些展望。

In our fiscal fourth quarter, we delivered revenues of $6.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.28. Our performance was strong in both QTL and QCT relative to expectations. The incremental EPS results that were above the high end of our guidance range were largely driven by the new license agreements and related catch-up payments that Derek described along with stronger than expected performance in our investment portfolio.

在第四財季，我們實現了 62 億美元的收入，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.28 美元。與預期相比，我們在 QTL 和 QCT 方面的表現都非常出色。每股盈餘增量高於我們預期範圍的上限，這主要得益於德里克所描述的新授權協議和相關的追趕付款，以及我們投資組合表現強於預期。

In QTL, in addition to the new licenses and related catch-up, stronger than expected 3G/4G device ASPs also contributed to the above expectation TRDS results. QCT had revenues of $4.1 billion reflecting MSM shipments, modestly above the midpoint of expectations, driven by higher demand in modems and from OEMs in China. Revenue for MSM was modestly higher sequentially, primarily due to growth in adjacent businesses.

在 QTL 中，除了新的許可證和相關的追趕之外，強於預期的 3G/4G 設備 ASP 也促成了上述預期的 TRDS 結果。QCT 的營收為 41 億美元，反映了 MSM 的出貨量，略高於預期的中點，這主要得益於調變解調器和中國 OEM 廠商更高的需求。MSM 的營收較上季略有成長，主要得益於鄰近業務的成長。

Non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses were down 3% sequentially, as expected, on cost controls and spending reductions under our strategic realignment plan.

由於我們策略調整計畫下的成本控制和支出削減，非GAAP綜合研發和銷售、一般及行政費用較上月下降3%，符合預期。

During the fiscal fourth quarter, we returned $1 billion to stockholders, including approximately $780 million of dividends paid and $225 million in share repurchases. For the full year in 2016, we returned just over 100% of free cash flow to our stockholders on share repurchases of $3.9 billion and dividends of $3 billion.

在第四財季，我們向股東返還了 10 億美元，其中包括支付的約 7.8 億美元股利和 2.25 億美元的股票回購。2016 年全年，我們透過股票回購 39 億美元和股息 30 億美元，將超過 100% 的自由現金流返還給了股東。

Our goals for FY16 were designed to improve our cost structure while repositioning the Company to capture the next phase of growth. We set three primary guidance points for 2016 as a result. First, we committed to making significant progress on signing new licenses under the approved terms in China and provided a revenue target range of $7.3 billion to $8 billion for QTL. We executed well on that plan by signing key license agreements with leading Chinese OEMs and delivered approximately $7.66 billion in revenue in the year.

我們 2016 財年的目標旨在改善成本結構，同時重新定位公司，以抓住下一個成長階段。因此，我們為 2016 年制定了三個主要指導方針。首先，我們承諾在中國按照已批准的條款簽署新的許可證方面取得重大進展，並為 QTL 設定了 73 億美元至 80 億美元的收入目標範圍。我們透過與中國領先的汽車製造商簽署關鍵許可協議，很好地執行了該計劃，並在當年實現了約 76.6 億美元的收入。

Second, we set an ambitious $1.4 billion spending reduction program, which was comprised of $1.1 billion in savings and operating expenses in engineering costs and cogs and a $300 million reduction in the annual grant of share-based compensation. The program was fully realized by the end of FY16. A comparison of the program reductions against the SRP baseline is found on our website in our quarterly investor deck. Finally, we targeted to exit FY16 with a minimum of 16% or better operating margin in QCT for the fourth quarter, which was met as we reported 16.6% in that quarter.

其次，我們制定了一項雄心勃勃的 14 億美元支出削減計劃，其中包括節省 11 億美元的工程成本和營運費用，以及減少 3 億美元的年度股份支付。該計劃於2016財政年度結束時全面實現。您可以在我們網站的季度投資者報告中找到該計劃削減與 SRP 基準的比較。最後，我們的目標是使 2016 財年第四季的 QCT 營業利潤率達到 16% 或更高，而我們實現了這一目標，該季度的營業利潤率為 16.6%。

Let's now turn to our financial outlook for the first quarter of FY17. We estimate fiscal first quarter revenues to be in the range of approximately $5.7 billion to $6.5 billion, down approximately 1% sequentially at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP earnings per share to be approximately $1.12 to $1.22 per share, down 9% sequentially at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal first quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses to be approximately flat sequentially.

現在讓我們來看看2017財年第一季的財務展望。我們預計第一財季營收將在 57 億美元至 65 億美元之間，以中間值計算，季減約 1%。我們預期非GAAP每股收益約為1.12美元至1.22美元，以中間值計算，季減9%。我們預計第一財季非GAAP合併研發銷售、管理及行政費用將與上一財季基本持平。

In QTL, we expect total reported device sales of approximately $58 billion to $66 billion in the first quarter, down approximately 16% sequentially at the midpoint, primarily as a result of the timing of signing new license agreements and related catch-up payments recorded in the FY16 fourth quarter. In QCT, we expect approximately $205 million to $225 million MSM chip shipments for the fiscal first quarter, up 2% sequentially and reflecting seasonally strong demand, primarily from OEMs in China across a broad range of products.

在 QTL，我們預計第一季報告的設備總銷售額約為 580 億美元至 660 億美元，按中間值計算，環比下降約 16%，這主要是由於簽署新許可協議的時間以及相關的補繳款項計入 2016 財年第四季度所致。QCT預計第一財季MSM晶片出貨量約2.05億美元至2.25億美元，季增2%，反映出季節性強勁的需求，主要來自中國OEM廠商的廣泛產品需求。

Share loss at a large thin modem customer is expected to moderate the normally strong seasonal MSM shipment trend in the December quarter. We expect QCT's operating margin percentage to be within approximately 100 basis points of the fourth fiscal quarter. Both of our businesses are seeing a modest impact in their outlook for the quarter as a result of a major customer's product launch challenges.

預計來自大型薄型調變解調器客戶的份額損失將緩和 12 月季度通常強勁的 MSM 季節性出貨趨勢。我們預期 QCT 的營業利潤率將與第四財季的營業利潤率相差不超過 100 個基點。由於一位主要客戶的產品發布遇到困難，我們兩家公司的季度業績預期都受到了一定程度的影響。

Turning to 2017, we are providing selective guidance points for the year. We are estimating mid single-digit percentage growth for global 3G/4G handset sales for FY17 and 7% growth at the midpoint in calendar year 2017 3G/4G global device shipments, as Derek described. Consistent with last fiscal year and aligned with our semiconductor and large cap tech peers, we are not providing fiscal year revenue or earnings per share guidance.

展望 2017 年，我們將提供一些精選的年度指導要點。正如 Derek 所描述的那樣，我們預計 2017 財年全球 3G/4G 手機銷量將實現個位數百分比的中等增長，而 2017 年日曆年 3G/4G 全球設備出貨量中位數將達到 7%。與上個財年一致，並與我們的半導體和大型科技同業保持一致，我們不提供本財年的營收或每股盈餘預期。

We estimate our non-GAAP FY17 tax rate to be approximately 18%. As we discussed last week, when we announced the proposed acquisition of NXP, we are modifying our capital return program ahead of the expected close of the transaction later in calendar 2017. However, we remain firmly committed to our current dividend program and to continuing to grow our dividend in the future.

我們預計 2017 財年非 GAAP 稅率約為 18%。正如我們上週宣布擬收購 NXP 時所討論的那樣，我們正在修改我們的資本回報計劃，以期在 2017 年稍後完成預期的交易。但是，我們仍然堅定地致力於目前的股息計劃，並將繼續在未來提高股息。

We are also committed to share repurchases at a level that at least offsets dilution. Depending on the level of stock option exercises by our employees, we could return close to 75% of free cash flow to shareholders during FY17 as our outstanding stock options have approximately two years, on average, remaining on their lives.

我們也承諾以至少能夠抵消股權稀釋的水平進行股票回購。根據員工行使股票選擇權的程度，我們可能會在 2017 財年向股東返還近 75% 的自由現金流，因為我們未行使的股票選擇權平均還有大約兩年的剩餘期限。

We expect to delever quickly after the NXP transaction is closed, providing a strong foundation for future capital returns and enabling us to approach our pre-transaction leverage ratios within two years of transaction close. That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.

我們預計在 NXP 交易完成後將迅速降低槓桿率，為未來的資本回報奠定堅實的基礎，並使我們能夠在交易完成後的兩年內接近交易前的槓桿率。我的發言到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.

謝謝你，喬治。接線員，我們已準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Mike Walkley, Canaccord Genuity.

Mike Walkley，Canaccord Genuity。

I guess I'll focus the question on the QCT segment, with a nice increase in the revenue per MSM, is this mainly just stepping up a higher mix within the Chinese smartphone market? Then can you help us model into Q1 2017, given the Samsung Note recall and the better mix of the iPhone? How should we think about revenue per MSM on a sequential basis? Thank you.

我想把問題集中在 QCT 細分市場，每百萬用戶收入大幅成長，這主要是為了提高中國智慧型手機市場的佔比嗎？那麼，鑑於三星 Note 的召回事件以及 iPhone 更好的市場表現，您能否幫助我們預測 2017 年第一季的市場狀況？我們應該如何按季度考慮每百萬用戶收入？謝謝。

Mike, it's George. I will take this and then maybe Cristiano will want jump in. So, if you look at Q4, I would say you saw some benefit from mix for sure. I would also add that you saw the impact of the adjacent businesses, which had a strong quarter both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Going into Q1, it's definitely the fact that you're seeing real strength in the high and mid tier that's helping offset what might be some of the other impacts that we're seeing in the quarter. Also you are seeing some lower low tier, which helps the overall picture there.

麥克，我是喬治。我會接受這個提議，然後也許克里斯蒂亞諾會想加入。所以，如果你看一下第四季度，我認為你肯定看到了混合銷售帶來的好處。我還要補充一點，您也看到了鄰近業務的影響，這些業務在本季度環比和同比均表現強勁。進入第一季度，高端和中端市場的強勁表現無疑有助於抵消本季可能出現的其他一些影響。此外，您還可以看到一些更低端的級別，這有助於了解整體情況。

Mike, this is Cristiano Amon. Just to add a comment, why we don't provide guidance for the year, I think within 2017, we expect to see the introduction of our new premium tier Snapdragon at 10-nanometer at a flagship. We'll also expect to continue to have growth in adjacent business. That's going to have a positive impact and offset some seasonality we saw with OEM mix.

麥克，這位是克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙。我補充一點，為什麼我們不提供年度業績指引，我認為在 2017 年，我們預計會在旗艦產品中推出採用 10 奈米製程的全新高階驍龍處理器。我們預期相關業務也將持續成長。這將產生積極影響，並抵消我們在 OEM 產品組合中看到的一些季節性波動。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

詹姆斯‧福塞特，摩根士丹利。

I also wanted to ask a couple of questions related to QCT. Steve, you talked about the performance advantages of your modems, but yet in the last couple of years, we have seen a couple of the highest profile phones opt, at least in some regions, to use modems that were somewhat inferior in performance. Can you talk a bit about what you can do to encourage and make sure that at least the best phones are using the best modems and really playing to your advantage?

我還想問幾個與QCT相關的問題。史蒂夫，你談到了你們調製解調器的性能優勢，但在過去的幾年裡，我們看到一些最知名的手機品牌（至少在某些地區）選擇使用性能稍遜一籌的調製解調器。您能否談談您可以採取哪些措施來鼓勵和確保至少最好的手機使用最好的數據機，從而真正發揮您的優勢？

Then my second question is that, George, you talked a little bit about -- or your expectation that QCT margins should be within about 100 bps of what you put up for the September quarter, in the December quarter. But how should we think about QCT margins on a more medium to long-term basis? Are we kind of at a new low? Or is this a new baseline? Should we expect some volatility both up and down from current levels? Thanks.

那麼我的第二個問題是，喬治，你剛才談到——或者說你預期——12 月份季度的 QCT 利潤率應該與 9 月份季度的利潤率相差在 100 個基點以內。但我們該如何從中長期角度看待 QCT 利潤率呢？我們是不是跌到了新的低谷？或者，這是否是一個新的基準？我們是否應該預期當前價位會出現上漲和下跌的波動？謝謝。

James, this is Steve. I'll handle the first piece of it. I think it also depends on where you are looking in the world. If you look in China, for example, I think the migration to up-link carrier aggregation in the 4G plus has really been helping the business, actually. So I think that's an area where feature leadership in the modem has certainly been able to be highly correlated, actually, with the success. But you're right, in some areas we have seen people either de-feature or go with a less advanced modem.

詹姆斯，這位是史蒂夫。我來處理第一部分。我認為這也取決於你從世界上的哪個地方來看問題。例如，如果你看看中國，我認為 4G+ 中上行鏈路載波聚合的遷移實際上確實對業務有所幫助。所以我認為，在調變解調器領域，功能領先地位確實與成功有著高度相關性。但你說得對，在某些地區，我們看到人們要么取消了某些功能，要么選擇了不太先進的數據機。

Now, the way we think about that is that the networks themselves are moving. That's not a sustainable long-term position to be in. When we look at tear downs or we look at comparisons between competitors' parts, the tear downs are very consistent with our view in terms of modem leadership. We are getting feedback from operators that they do want to upgrade their modems. Actually that includes their end market devices.

現在，我們認為網路本身在運動。這種做法並非長久之計。當我們查看拆解圖或比較競爭對手的零件時，拆解結果與我們關於現代技術領先地位的觀點非常一致。我們從運營商那裡得到的反饋是，他們確實希望升級他們的調製解調器。實際上，這其中也包括他們的終端市場設備。

The pressure to go to gigabit class modems as well as 5G, we think set up a good environment for us. We like the position of having modem leadership in the future. We think we're going to be able to maintain that. We did, as you know, have to make some changes to our cost structure to make sure that we can sustain an environment where maybe that isn't always the case at any particular moment. But we still think that is a strong strategic ground to hold.

我們認為，向千兆級調變解調器和 5G 過渡的壓力，為我們創造了一個良好的發展環境。我們喜歡未來擁有現代化領導地位的這種局面。我們認為我們能夠保持這種情況。如您所知，我們必須對成本結構進行一些調整，以確保我們能夠維持一個環境，​​因為這種情況可能並非總是發生在任何特定時刻。但我們仍然認為這是一個值得堅守的強大戰略立場。

James, it's George. On QCT margins, as we said, we will be within -- we expect to be within 100 basis points of where we finished the year. I think that's at a time, too, when we are dealing with the impact of the share loss at the modem customer. So I think that's a -- it's a positive sign. It shows a couple things. One, the strength of our position in China and how that's been impacting us overall. The strength of the product portfolio coming out in the second half of the year of 2016.

詹姆斯，我是喬​​治。正如我們所說，QCT利潤率將控制在——我們預計在年底的基礎上控制在100個基點以內。我認為這也是因為我們目前正在應對調變解調器用戶份額下降的影響。所以我覺得這是一個——這是一個正面的訊號。它說明了兩件事。第一，我們在中國的地位優勢以及這對我們整體的影響。2016年下半年推出的產品組合實力強勁。

In terms of looking forward, clearly, we'll be up year-over-year in our expectations. We haven't guided what we think that will be for margin. But there is still going to be seasonality. Obviously, there is usually a big movement seasonally between our Q1 and Q2 for QCT and then strength in the second half of the year. I don't know, Cristiano, was there anything else you wanted to add?

展望未來，很顯然，我們的預期將比去年同期有所提高。我們尚未就利潤率的預期給出具體說明。但季節性因素依然存在。顯然，QCT 的第一季和第二季之間通常會有較大的季節性波動，然後在下半年表現強勁。克里斯蒂亞諾，我不知道，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I just wanted to add that when we look forward to 2017, we feel comfortable right now with the product road map and traction across our broad customer base. I think China definitely one to highlight. I think we expect to repeat in 2017 the success we had in China in 2016. We are going to be upgrading all tiers across thin modems, the premium tier MSM and the mid tier MSM, while we maintain the operating discipline implemented through our strategic realignment plan.

我只想補充一點，展望 2017 年，我們目前對產品路線圖以及在廣泛客戶群中的市場表現感到滿意。我認為中國絕對是值得重點關注的國家之一。我認為我們預計在 2017 年重現 2016 年在中國的成功。我們將對所有等級的薄型調變解調器、高階MSM和中階MSM進行升級，同時維持透過我們的策略調整計畫實施的營運紀律。

Simona Jankowski, Goldman Sachs.

西蒙娜·揚科斯基，高盛。

I wanted to shift the focus to QTL. I think last quarter, you had suggested about $400 million in catch-up royalties that you had expected, which was basically the delta between the $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion in your full-year revenue guidance for QTL. It looks like you recognized about half of that in Q4. So, is it fair to assume that there is another $200 million of catch-ups left? Or is that amount larger? By when do you expect to collect all of the catch-up payments?

我想把重點轉移到 QTL 上。我認為上個季度，您曾表示預計會有約 4 億美元的追趕性特許權使用費，這基本上是您對 QTL 全年收入預期 74 億美元至 78 億美元之間的差額。看來你在第四季認出了其中大約一半。那麼，是否可以合理地假設還有 2 億美元的追趕資金需要追趕呢？或金額較大？預計何時能收回所有補繳款項？

Simona, this is Derek. Actually, what we said was last quarter in Q3, we had about -- we had north of $400 million in out of period revenue in QTL. Part of that was from the resolution of our dispute with LG and the other chunk of it, about $200 million-ish, was from licensees that we were still negotiating with began reporting some of the royalties even ahead of signing agreements. That was all in Q3. It was reflected in the $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion annual fiscal-year guidance.

西蒙娜，這位是德瑞克。實際上，我們上個季度（第三季）在 QTL 中獲得了超過 4 億美元的非週期性收入。其中一部分來自我們與 LG 的糾紛解決，另一部分，大約 2 億美元左右，來自我們仍在談判的被授權方，他們在簽署協議之前就開始報告一些版稅。以上內容都屬於第三季。這體現在年度財政預期為 74 億美元至 78 億美元。

When you fast forward into Q4, we've got some additional catch-up payments, as I noted in my remarks, north of $200 million additional coming in, in Q4, which gets us to -- if you might recall from last time, we guided some additional progress with license negotiations in Q4, but not all of it. We kind of over delivered on that in terms of concluding additional deals, which brought us above our Q4 guide and right around the midpoint of the annual fiscal-year guidance.

快進到第四季度，正如我在演講中提到的，我們還有一些額外的追趕性付款，第四季度將額外收到超過 2 億美元的款項，這將使我們——如果你還記得上次的情況，我們預計第四季度在許可談判方面會取得一些進一步進展，但並非全部。我們在達成額外交易方面做得相當出色，這使我們第四季度業績超過了預期，並且達到了全年業績指引的中點。

I would just add, we had said going into the fourth quarter that there was more risk to meeting the midpoint of our guide because the market had been softer than we would have thought at the time when we came up with the $7.3 billion to the $8.0 billion. But we felt we were making enough progress that we could make the guide that we did. It turns out we made even more progress.

我還要補充一點，我們在進入第四季時就說過，由於市場比我們當時預想的要疲軟（當時我們預測的營收目標為 73 億美元至 80 億美元），因此實現我們預期目標中點的風險更大。但我們認為我們取得的進展足以讓我們寫出出現在這份指南中。結果證明我們取得了更大的進展。

Rod Hall, JPMorgan.

Rod Hall，摩根大通。

I kind of want to follow-up on that last question. So, your underlying royalty rate calculated, as I think Derek had called out or one of you guys had called out, was 2.5%. You're talking about a couple hundred million of catch-up payments. Were those -- can you give us any idea what the underlying royalty rate here was, ex the catch-up payments? Are we talking about rates as we look forward that are similar to the average for the full year? Or are we talking about something else, just to help us think about what the underlying rates look like here?

我想就最後一個問題再補充一點。所以，正如德里克或你們中的某個人指出的那樣，你們的基本版稅率計算出來是 2.5%。你說的可是幾億美元的補繳款項啊。那些－您能否告訴我們這裡的基本版稅率是多少，不包括補繳款項？我們討論的是未來與全年平均相近的利率嗎？或者我們在討論其他事情，只是為了幫助我們思考這裡的潛在利率是什麼樣的？

Then the other question I had for you is related to the overall market demand. It's kind of hard because there is so many moving parts in terms of your TRDS, et cetera. It's a little bit hard to understand what's happening with the end market. So I just wonder if you could help us understand what you have seen in this last quarter with respect to end market demand? How you think that's trending as we look into next year? Thanks.

那麼，我的另一個問題與整體市場需求有關。這有點難，因為你的 TRDS 等疾病涉及很多方面。終端市場的狀況有點難以理解。所以我想請您幫忙了解一下，在過去一個季度裡，您觀察到的終端市場需求如何？展望明年，你認為這個趨勢會如何發展？謝謝。

Rod, this is Derek. As we pointed out at the outset of the year, this year and probably even going forward into FY17, the externally implied rate is going to fluctuate quite a bit quarter-over-quarter. If you look back in Q3, we were north of 3.2%. Then this quarter it swings down to 2.5%. Really, the main driver in this quarter was the amount of catch-up that came in within the quarter, both -- all of it really coming from Chinese OEMs, a combination of folks reporting under the NDRC terms, but also a significant portion of that under the lower rates that apply to 3-mode. So we think that's largely sort of a historical thing.

羅德，我是德里克。正如我們在年初指出的那樣，今年，甚至可能延續到 2017 財年，外部隱含利率將逐季出現相當大的波動。回顧第三季度，我們的成長率超過了 3.2%。但本季這一比例下降至 2.5%。實際上，本季的主要驅動因素是本季度內湧現的大量補繳稅款，這些稅款全部來自中國汽車製造商，一部分是根據國家發改委的規定申報的，但也有相當一部分是根據適用於三模的較低稅率申報的。所以我們認為這很大程度上是一個歷史問題。

If you look at the projections for 3-mode in China, they are expected to be below 30% of the volume at China Mobile by the end of 2016 -- end of calendar 2016. So, we think this is just going to be the fluctuation that we pointed out would happen as we signed agreements and brought in catch-up. For the year, we came pretty close to the 2.9% longer term kind of normalized rate we talked about in February at the Analyst Day.

如果看一下中國三模行動通訊的預測，到 2016 年底，其銷售量預計將低於中國移動的 30%（即 2016 年底）。所以，我們認為這只是我們之前指出的，在我們簽署協議和進行追趕性調整時會出現的波動。今年，我們非常接近了我們在 2 月分析師日上討論的 2.9% 的長期正常化利率。

I expect we are going so see continued fluctuations through 2017, but structurally in terms of how we see the future unfolding, I think you can -- you sort of think of that normalized 2.9% as a good longer-term metric. We do expect next quarter we will be up because, even if we conclude some additional deals that we are making progress on, the amount of the prior period catch-up will be -- will likely be smaller.

我預計 2017 年我們將看到持續的波動，但從結構上看，就我們對未來發展的看法而言，我認為你可以把 2.9% 的正常化增長率看作是一個很好的長期指標。我們預計下個季度業績將有所增長，因為即使我們完成了一些正在取得進展的額外交易，上一季的追趕金額也可能較小。

Then on the end market, really, let me try to unpack it a couple of different ways. We are continuing to see good growth in units. So we're holding our guide for calendar 2016, which is about 8% year-over-year growth. We put out a guide now for 2017, which is 7% year-over-year growth.

那麼，就終端市場而言，讓我試著從幾個不同的角度來看這個問題。我們持續看到銷售量良好成長。因此，我們維持 2016 年的指導方針，即年增約 8%。我們現在發布了 2017 年的指導方針，預計將年增 7%。

Then the story that we really highlighted maybe three years ago is playing out very, very accurately to what we expected. The ASPs have continued to moderate in terms of erosion. 2016 came in about where we called it at the beginning of the year, around 6% year-over-year erosion. We expect to that to further moderate into FY17.

那麼，我們大約三年前重點報導的故事，正在非常非常準確地按照我們的預期發展。從侵蝕程度來看，ASP 的侵蝕情況持續趨於緩和。2016 年的情況與我們年初的預測基本一致，年減約 6%。我們預計這種情況在2017財年將進一步緩和。

One of the guideposts we set out in my remarks is if you look at the unit growth and the expected ASP erosion, we think the handset piece of the market in FY17 will grow about mid single-digit. Then of course, on top of that you have the non-handset piece as well as some continued improvement that we expect to drive in compliance, which means we expect to grow the business, the QTL business, at or above the handset growth in the market.

我在演講中提出的指導原則之一是，如果你觀察銷售成長和預期的平均售價下降，我們認為 2017 財年手機市佔率將實現個位數中段的成長。當然，除此之外，還有非手機業務以及我們期望在合規性方面取得的持續改進，這意味著我們期望QTL業務的成長速度能夠達到或超過手機業務在市場上的成長速度。

Tim Long, BMO Capital Markets.

Tim Long，BMO資本市場。

Derek, just a quick clarification and a question. On the catch-ups, I am assuming you're saying that VIVO and OPPO, the things that have passed, those catch-ups are done and anything next year in the future will be from new deals.

德瑞克，我有個問題想問一下，也想簡單澄清一下。關於追趕，我假設你的意思是說，VIVO 和 OPPO 已經完成的那些追趕，明年未來的任何事情都將來自新的交易。

Then I just wanted to talk about that 5% to 11% for this year. Thanks for the color on the 2017 number. But IDC and others -- IDC, I think, just lowered their number for smartphones from 3% to 1.5% for the year. So I've got this 5% to 11% range, could you help us out a little bit? Is it more of the non-handset stuff in there that's driving it higher? Or do you think there is some misunderstanding about China?

然後我只想談談今年那 5% 到 11% 的成長率。謝謝你提供的2017年數字的顏色資訊。但IDC和其他機構——我記得IDC剛剛將智慧型手機的年增長率從3%下調至1.5%。所以我給的範圍是 5% 到 11%，可以幫我們稍微解釋一下嗎？是不是因為其中非手機相關內容較多才導致價格上漲？還是你認為人們對中國有些誤解？

Related to that, the QTL long-term goal of $10 billion, I think by FY20, it sounded like normalized was about $7.2 billion. So maybe just walk us through the unit ASP or new markets that will get us to that longer-term number. Thank you.

與此相關的是，QTL 的長期目標是 100 億美元，我認為到 2020 財年，正常化後的目標約為 72 億美元。所以，或許您可以為我們介紹一下單位平均售價或能夠幫助我們實現長期目標的新市場。謝謝。

Tim, this is Derek. Yes, the catch-up that came in over the last two quarters related to the signing of new deals, that's basically largely baked in and behind us. We have signed nine of the top 10 Chinese OEMs now. So great progress throughout the year.

提姆，我是德里克。是的，過去兩個季度因簽署新合約而帶來的追趕效應，基本上已經基本實現並成為過去式了。我們目前已與中國十大OEM廠商中的九家簽約。今年取得了巨大進步。

We do have another one that we're continuing to negotiate with and continuing to make progress, as well as we have noted the litigation against Meizu, which we are hopeful will drive to an agreement at some point. So there will be some continued fluctuation in the revenue in QTL based on catch-up, both on a combination of new deals as well as driving compliance resolutions. But the ones that we have talked about from the announced deals are, I think, basically behind us.

我們還有另一家公司正在繼續談判並取得進展，同時我們也注意到針對魅族的訴訟，我們希望這能在某個時候促成協議的達成。因此，QTL 的收入將持續出現一些波動，這是由於追趕效應造成的，既包括新交易的增加，也包括推動合規性問題的解決。但我認為，我們之前討論過的那些已宣布的交易，基本上都已成為過去。

In terms of the market, there is -- I think if you look at the way the market has developed throughout the year, a number of industry analysts have been more pessimistic on handset growth than we were at the outset, but at least so far I would say the market is trending more in line with our view than with what they set out. China continues to be strong. We saw another good quarter in the September quarter of 4G adds. Going forward, we are expecting some pretty meaningful growth in 2017 coming from India and Southeast Asia, Middle East. So there is definitely big markets where we see the opportunity for a lot of continued growth.

就市場而言，我認為——如果你觀察市場在過去一年中的發展情況，你會發現許多行業分析師對手機市場的成長比我們一開始更加悲觀，但至少到目前為止，我認為市場的發展趨勢更符合我們的觀點，而不是他們最初的觀點。中國依然強勁。我們在9月份的季度中看到了4G新增用戶數量的另一個良好季度。展望未來，我們預計 2017 年印度、東南亞和中東地區將出現一些相當顯著的成長。因此，我們確實看到一些大市場持續成長的巨大機會。

On top of that, we do see a lot of good trends with operators focusing more attention on things like narrow band, LTE, and more of the industrial and in addition to consumer launches of IoT devices. So that will be a growth opportunity as well. The handset -- underlying handset growth that we called for 2017, mid single-digit, I think is something we feel very comfortable with.

除此之外，我們還看到許多良好的趨勢，營運商更加關注窄頻、LTE 以及面向工業和消費者的物聯網設備發布等。所以這也將是個發展機會。手機－我們預測 2017 年手機市場將實現個位數中段的成長，我認為我們對此非常有信心。

We're not going to update the sort of the $10 billion call that we gave in February. But, I guess what I can say there is, in terms of the new agreements that we have signed and the way that the market is playing out between -- since February, there is nothing really that would change the long-term view for the business.

我們不會更新我們在2月提出的100億美元的投資計畫。但是，就我們簽署的新協議以及自二月以來的市場發展而言，我可以說的是，沒有什麼能真正改變公司長期發展的前景。

Romit Shah, Nomura.

Romit Shah，野村證券。

Just could you help us understand what's driving the moderation of ASPs in 2017, Derek? You mentioned a higher mix of emerging markets. I would just think India, Southeast Asia would put more downward pressure on ASP. So if you could talk about that? Then the timing of the NXPI deal closure for late 2017 seems conservative when you consider the complementary nature of the asset. If we look at other deals in the space over the last year or two, they have been closing within eight to nine months. So, I am just wondering if there is potential for this deal to close earlier than what you guys communicated a week ago?

Derek，您能否幫我們了解是什麼因素導致了 2017 年平均售價的調整？您提到了新興市場佔比更高的比例。我認為印度和東南亞市場會對平均售價造成更大的下行壓力。如果你能談談這個的話？考慮到該資產的互補性，NXPI 交易在 2017 年底完成的時間似乎比較保守。如果我們回顧過去一兩年該領域的其他交易，就會發現它們通常在八到九個月內完成。所以，我只是想問一下，這筆交易是否有可能比你們一週前宣布的時間提早完成？

This is Derek. So on the first question, it's really nothing new. We have been talking about the trends that we expected to play out in the handset market, like I said, for the last few years. We expected to see some pretty accelerated erosion in ASPs for a couple of years and then start to moderate. But what we are seeing in the emerging markets, although most of the growth going forward is coming from the emerging markets, it's the same trends that we had talked about, we're continuing to see play out.

這是德里克。所以第一個問題，其實沒什麼新鮮的。正如我之前所說，過去幾年我們一直在討論我們預期手機市場將會出現的發展趨勢。我們預計未來幾年平均售價會加速下降，然後開始趨於緩和。但我們在新興市場看到的是，儘管未來大部分成長都來自新興市場，但我們之前討論過的趨勢仍在持續上演。

The Chinese OEMs are continuing to kind of move up tier as they gain share. Cristiano mentioned some of that in response to an earlier question. That's really been a good story. A lot of growth in China and then across the Chinese OEMs even outside of China in the mid-to-high tier. That volume is not just coming in at the low tier. Part of that is being driven by the replacement rate story that we expected as people started to replace their phones and move up tier. We believe those trends are playing out and they will continue to play out as we go through 2017.

隨著市場份額的成長，中國汽車製造商正在不斷向更高層級發展。克里斯蒂亞諾在回答早期的一個問題時提到其中一些內容。那真是一個很棒的故事。中國市場成長迅猛，中國汽車製造商的業務也隨之拓展到中國以外的中高端市場。這部分銷量並非僅來自低端市場。部分原因是由於人們開始更換手機並升級到更高等級的機型，我們預期的更換率趨勢導致了這種情況。我們認為這些趨勢正在發生，隨著2017年的推進，這些趨勢也將持續發生。

Interestingly, if you look at the reported ASP in the business for FY16, it was down less than the global. So, even though, we are pulling in some of the catch-up amounts for prior period and some of that stuff tended to be at the lower tiers, there has still been some good stability across the ASP picture.

有趣的是，如果你看一下 2016 財年該業務報告的平均售價，會發現它的降幅小於全球平均。所以，儘管我們正在彌補之前一段時間的補繳款項，而且其中一些款項往往集中在較低層級，但平均售價 (ASP) 的整體情況仍然保持了良好的穩定性。

Let me comment on -- this is George, I will comment on the NXP closing date. We totally agree with your comment that is a highly complementary deal and the industrial logic for customers is quite attractive. So we didn't pick an outside date because we thought there would be a lot of regulatory push back. It was just designed to recognize that at the outside it would be by the end of the calendar year. But it could certainly be well before that depending on the regulatory reviews.

讓我就此發表一下看法——我是喬治，我將就NXP的關閉日期發表一下看法。我們完全同意您的評論，這是一項高度互補的交易，其對客戶的行業邏輯也相當有吸引力。所以我們沒有選擇外部日期，因為我們認為會遭到監管機構的強烈反對。它的設計初衷只是為了考慮到，從表面上看，到年底就差不多了。但具體時間可能會提前，具體取決於監管審查情況。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，Cowen and Company。

I guess I had two questions on QTL. First of all, Derek, I think you had said that the gap in terms of dollars between TDS and TRDS exiting FY16 would be less than 10%. Obviously, that gap is coming down. But can you give us a milepost in terms of where that gap will be exiting FY17? Could it be only 5%, for example?

關於QTL，我有兩個問題。首先，德瑞克，我想你曾說過，2016 財年結束時，TDS 和 TRDS 之間的美元差距將小於 10%。顯然，這個差距正在縮小。但您能否提供我們一個里程碑，說明到 2017 財年結束時，這一差距將縮小到什麼程度？例如，會不會只有 5%？

Tim, so we have given a couple of guideposts. One is that as we continue to negotiate and close what we called the key Chinese license agreements that were remaining, that if we could get those done, we believed we would be around 75% of their global sales that would be reported. We are not quite there yet. We have got a lot of good progress, and certainly the largest player is done. But we are still in negotiations with one more of those.

提姆，我們已經給了一些指導原則。一方面，隨著我們繼續談判並敲定我們稱之為關鍵的中國許可協議（這些協議還剩下一些），如果我們能夠完成這些協議，我們相信我們將占到他們全​​球銷售額的 75% 左右（這些銷售額將會被公佈）。我們還沒完全達到目標。我們取得了許多良好進展，而且最大的玩家肯定已經完成了。但我們仍在與其中一家公司進行談判。

So as I mentioned in my remarks, we are kind of at the 73% mark now. We need to make some more progress to get closer to the 75%. But I do think that we are on track to get there. Then from there, we will have to drive some additional signings and some compliance improvements to get that number up. The 75%, we last gave it, it aligned with around a little less than 10% global sales that would be unreported.

正如我剛才提到的，我們現在已經完成了大約 73%。我們需要取得更多進展才能更接近 75% 的目標。但我認為我們正朝著目標穩步前進。然後，我們需要推動更多簽約和一些合規的改進，才能提高這個數字。我們上次給出的 75% 的比例，與全球未報告銷售額的略低於 10% 的比例相符。

I am really not in a position today to guide where we end up in 2017, other than to say we have been making steady progress. We have got a number of initiatives underway in addition to just negotiating closing new agreements to drive the compliance in a more favorable picture for us. We are going to be working hard on that throughout FY17 and hope to continue to narrow that gap.

我今天真的無法預測我們 2017 年的最終結果，只能說我們一直在穩步前進。除了談判新的協議外，我們還開展了多項舉措，以推動合規工作朝著對我們更有利的方向發展。我們將在2017財年持續努力，希望繼續縮小差距。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

Stacy Rasgon，伯恩斯坦研究公司。

I had one and then a follow-up to it. The first, Derek's comments on OPPO and VIVO, what appeared to be catch-up in Q3, your comments that you just made seemed to suggest that wasn't catch-up, that was actually run rate revenue they decided to report while they were negotiating. Can you clarify, is that in fact true? Were OPPO and VIVO actually in the run rate of revenues in Q3 -- starting in Q3 and obviously going forward from now?

我先做了一次，然後又做了一次後續檢查。首先，Derek 對 OPPO 和 VIVO 的評論，第三季度似乎是為了追趕，而你剛才的評論似乎表明那並不是追趕，那實際上是他們在談判期間決定公佈的運行率收入。請問這是否屬實？OPPO 和 VIVO 的營收在第三季是否真的達到了預期水準——從第三季開始，並且顯然會持續到以後？

To that end, how do I get to your QTL guidance for next quarter? The midpoint is $62 billion, that's only up about 2% year-over-year. A year ago, you should have been having very serious collection issues in China, much better than you're having now. Yet you're only guiding it up 2% in year-over-year. So I guess are those two issues related? Can you clarify on both of those, please?

為此，我該如何取得貴公司下季度的QTL指引？中間值為 620 億美元，年成長僅約 2%。一年前，你們在中國應該要面臨非常嚴重的收款問題，情況比現在好得多。然而，你們卻只引導它年增了 2%。所以我想這兩個問題之間是有連結的吧？請問您能就這兩個問題分別解釋一下嗎？

Stacy, this is Derek. Yes, so the catch-up situation is a bit complicated. I guess the way -- the best way I can lay it out for you is, we got some catch-up in from the licensees that we closed on in Q4 into Q3 that were for prior-period sales. They were not in the run rate in Q3. We closed the deals in Q4, which brought in additional catch-up for prior periods, but then also brought them into the run rate into Q4. So it's a blend of the two. George, if you want to take the next one?

史黛西，這位是德瑞克。是的，所以追趕的情況有點複雜。我想，最好的解釋方式是，我們從第四季度完成交易的授權商那裡獲得了一些之前期間的銷售款項，這些款項已在第三季度到達。第三季他們的出場率並不高。我們在第四季度完成了這些交易，這不僅彌補了之前幾個季度的缺口，也使它們進入了第四季度的正常生產速度。所以它是兩者的混合體。喬治，你想接下一個嗎？

Yes, in terms of trying to then guide to how you get to the outlook for Q1, which I believe what your second question was, it's really just fundamentally the step-down in TRDS quarter-over-quarter. Otherwise, it's a fairly strong guide. If you blend the two quarters, I think you're right on top of it.

是的，至於如何預測第一季的前景（我相信這是你的第二個問題），從根本上來說，就是 TRDS 的季度環比下降。除此之外，它還是一本相當不錯的指南。如果你把這兩個部分結合起來，我覺得你就說對了。

David Wong, Wells Fargo.

大衛王，富國銀行。

Can you -- are you still on track for closing the joint venture arrangement with TDK as expected? Does it look like this will be a March 2017 event?

請問—您與TDK的合資協議是否仍如預期順利完成？看起來這會是2017年3月的活動嗎？

This is Cristiano. I think we are still on track. We see some of the regulatory approvals getting near completion. We are on track to close this towards the end of the year, beginning of 2017.

這是克里斯蒂亞諾。我認為我們仍在按計劃進行。我們看到一些監管審批工作已接近尾聲。我們預計在今年年底或 2017 年初完成這項工作。

Edward Snyder, Charter Equity Research.

Edward Snyder，Charter Equity Research。

You mentioned that some of the offset to your QCT business was because of share loss in thin modems. You made comments on the premium that Qualcomm has enjoyed and still enjoys in modem performance isn't as valued by some of your OEM customers as it has been in the past. Do you see that reverting back to mean in any of the product roadmap in the next year or two that you looking at? I know there's a lot of these phones are white-boarded three years in advance that suggests that there will be an increase on a premium for performance at some of those OEMs? Or is this going to be state of the industry for some time on both competitors' solutions, let's say, like Intel but also in internal solutions? So if could get a feeling for that?

您提到，QCT業務的部分損失是由於瘦型調變解調器市場佔有率的下降所造成的。您曾評論說，高通在調製解調器性能方面享有的溢價，對一些 OEM 客戶而言，其價值已不如以往那樣受到重視。您認為在未來一兩年內，您所關注的任何產品路線圖中，是否有可能恢復到以前那種形式？我知道很多手機的設計方案都是提前三年就制定好的，這暗示著一些手機廠商會提高高效能手機的溢價？或者，這種情況是否會在一段時間內成為行業現狀，無論是競爭對手（例如英特爾）的解決方案，還是內部解決方案？如果能感受到這一點就好了？

Then in terms of Note 7, I know the cancellation, how much of an impact did that have on the quarter? I know there was probably some forecast for that into the March period, is it all in now? Or do you think you will have a little bit more out in the first calendar quarter next year? Thanks.

那麼就Note 7而言，我知道它被取消了，這對本季的業績產生了多大的影響？我知道3月可能已經有一些相關的預測，現在都確定了嗎？還是您認為明年第一季會有更多產品上市？謝謝。

Yes, this is Steve. I will take the first piece, and maybe George can jump in on the end. Yes, what I meant to say earlier was, I think there is maybe points in time where you can get away with not the leading quality -- or the leading edge feature set. But I don't think that's good strategic ground to hold. Our view of where our roadmap is going, the speed at which the industry is moving, meaning the networks that are in the operators -- what their plans are to upgrade the networks. We feel very good about where our modem roadmap and modem business is going.

是的，這是史蒂夫。我先拿第一塊，也許喬治可以接手最後一塊。是的，我之前想說的是，我認為在某些時候，你或許可以不用追求領先的品質——或者說，不用追求領先的功能集。但我認為這不是一個好的戰略據點。我們對自身發展路線圖方向的看法，以及產業發展的速度，即營運商的網路現狀——他們升級網路的計畫。我們對我們的數據機產品路線圖和數據機業務的發展方向感到非常樂觀。

I gave a couple of data points about people launching some of the more advanced either MIMO or 256-QAM networks. We see that happening. We see things like license assisted access happening, particularly in the United States, being a positive thing. The upgrade to 802.11ax and the interconnection or the simultaneous operation between that and cellular being a good thing.

我提供了一些關於人們推出一些更先進的 MIMO 或 256-QAM 網路的數據點。我們看到這種情況正在發生。我們看到，像駕照輔助准入這樣的事情正在發生，尤其是在美國，這是一件好事。升級到 802.11ax 以及它與蜂窩網路之間的互連或同時運作是一件好事。

Then just the general pressure on OEMs from other OEMs to use, let's say, things like gigabit class modems, we think is creating a positive design win -- good feedback from our customers in terms of how that sets up. So, the individual -- how that relates to an individual model and such and timing of that, I think is really a better question for the OEMs. But we like where the modem business is headed, particularly as 5G happens and things like narrow band IoT come into the networks as well. I think that's where we are.

然後，其他 OEM 廠商向 OEM 廠商施加的普遍壓力，要求他們使用千兆級調變解調器之類的設備，我們認為這會帶來積極的設計優勢——我們的客戶對這種設計方式的回饋也很好。所以，個人——這與個人模型以及時間安排有何關係，我認為這實際上是OEM製造商應該問的問題。但我們看好調變解調器產業的發展方向，尤其是在 5G 普及以及窄頻物聯網等技術也進入網路之後。我認為我們現在的情況就是這樣。

Quickly, maybe on the Note 7 and other devices, I think we did comprehend a little bit of impact from that in the forward guide. I think you should think of that as if there is kind of a momentary hole in the market and we have a view as to how that's going to fill in. It may fill in, maybe not perhaps in the entire first quarter, but it will fill in. We feel like we are well positioned for almost any scenario that you can think of. A lot of different OEMs could fill it in, including just a product transition within the OEM that we're talking about. So we feel like we are well positioned in any of those scenarios. We did comprehend some impact of that in the first-quarter guide.

很快，或許在 Note 7 和其他設備上，我認為我們確實從前瞻性指南中理解到了一些影響。我認為你應該把這看作是市場中出現了一個暫時的缺口，而我們對如何填補這個缺口有自己的看法。可能會填補空缺，也許不會在整個第一季都填補，但肯定會填補。我們感覺我們已經做好了充分準備，可以應付您能想到的幾乎任何情況。許多不同的原始設備製造商 (OEM) 都可以填補這個空缺，包括我們正在討論的 OEM 內部的產品過渡。因此，我們感覺無論在哪種情況下，我們都處於有利地位。我們在第一季業績指引中確實考慮到了這方面的一些影響。

Tal Liani, Bank of America.

塔爾·利亞尼，美國銀行。

This is Dan Bartus on for Tal. I wanted to understand the QCT opportunities for next year a little bit more. When we look to next year, the growth is mainly coming from India. I wonder if you could discuss the strategy there? How can you differentiate in such a low ASP market? Then just separately, I was wondering if the share loss at that key thin modem customer was greater than you had originally baked into your QCT planning and margin assumptions? Thanks.

我是塔爾的丹·巴圖斯。我想更深入了解QCT明年的發展機會。展望明年，成長主要來自印度。不知道您是否可以討論一下那裡的策略？在平均售價如此低的市場中，如何脫穎而出？另外，我還想知道，那位關鍵的瘦調變解調器客戶的市佔率損失是否比您最初在 QCT 計畫和利潤率假設中考慮的要大？謝謝。

Hi, Dan, this is Cristiano. Let me just start talking about the growth. I think one of the things we had said priorly was that we have been quite successful with our product line in China. We see a lot of the Chinese OEMs and particularly in the market in China you see some of the larger OEMs in China consolidating their volume. They look to export that into growth opportunities in emerging markets. That is actually a differentiating position of QCT. I think the more that the Chinese customer base exports outside China, I think actually helps our position both within China as well as the growth opportunities.

嗨，丹，我是克里斯蒂亞諾。讓我先談談成長方面的問題。我認為我們之前說過的一點是，我們的產品線在中國取得了相當大的成功。我們看到很多中國汽車製造商，尤其是中國市場上的一些大型汽車製造商，正在整合市場份額。他們希望將這些經驗運用到新興市場的成長機會中。這其實是QCT的一個獨特之處。我認為，中國客戶群出口到中國以外的地區越多，實際上就越有助於我們在中國的地位以及獲得成長機會。

Specifically to India, we are actually excited about it. There has been a very large-scale LTE launch with Reliance that is moving the market towards -- from feature phone accelerated path towards smartphone with 4G and technology such as voice over LTE. All of the concepts of all-mode that has been successful in China. It can also be a driver in India. So I think that's how we feel good about basically the ability to generate growth in those markets as well. I think your second question -- you want to take the second question?

具體到印度，我們對此感到非常興奮。Reliance 的大規模 LTE 推出正在推動市場從功能手機加速過渡到配備 4G 和 VoLTE 等技術的智慧型手機。所有在中國取得成功的全模式理念。在印度，它也可以是一名駕駛。所以我認為，這就是我們對在這些市場創造成長能力感到樂觀的原因。我認為你的第二個問題是──你想回答第二個問題嗎？

Sure, I'd be happy to. We had talked actually the previous quarter about the fact that we had contemplated the impact of second sourcing in our full-year guidance in terms of where we thought QCT would come out on margin.

當然，我很樂意。事實上，我們在上個季度就討論過，我們曾考慮過第二供應商對全年業績指引的影響，以及我們認為 QCT 的利潤率會是多少。

Actually, if you look back on the year, QCT not only exceeded the minimum margin target that we set, but they did it in a year where, quite frankly, the market itself was weaker, particularly in the thin modem area. It required us to recapture an important slot in the premium tier, which they did. But also rolled out a series of products across the low, mid, and high tiers, where we saw much stronger traction in China than we expected going in. So, I think overall, it's a very strong year. Our planning assumptions with respect to the second sourcing were always a part of that.

事實上，回顧這一年，QCT 不僅超過了我們設定的最低利潤目標，而且坦白說，他們是在市場本身較為疲軟的一年中做到的，尤其是在超薄調製解調器領域。這要求我們重新奪回高級會員等級中的一個重要位置，而他們做到了。但我們也推出了一系列面向低階、中階和高端市場的產品，在中國市場，這些產品的市場反應比我們預期的要好得多。所以，總的來說，我認為今年是非常強勁的一年。我們關於第二供應商的規劃假設總是其中的一部分。

Thank you. This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

謝謝。我們的問答環節時間到此結束。莫倫科夫先生，在休會之前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Thank you. I just want to thank everyone for attending the call today and reiterate how excited we are about the future. We're executing on our strategy to maintain our leadership in mobile and grow in adjacent opportunities with disciplined execution. With the pending additions of TDK JV and the NXP business, we are in an excellent position to grow our businesses. Lastly, I want to thank all of our employees for their hard work and dedication though this evolution of our business model. We look forward to the many exciting opportunities ahead. Thank you.

謝謝。我只想感謝今天參加電話會議的各位，並再次重申我們對未來充滿信心。我們正在執行我們的策略，以保持我們在行動領域的領先地位，並透過嚴謹的執行力在相關領域實現成長。隨著TDK合資企業和NXP業務的即將併入，我們處於發展業務的絕佳位置。最後，我要感謝所有員工在公司業務模式演變過程中所付出的辛勤努力和奉獻精神。我們期待未來眾多令人興奮的機會。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。