菲利普斯66 (PSX) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the second quarter 2026 Phillips 66 earnings conference call. My name is Hillary, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Phillips 66 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我是 Hillary，將擔任今天會議的接線員。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Sean Maher, Vice President, Investor Relations and Chief Economist. Sean, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁兼首席經濟學家 Sean Maher。Sean，您可以開始。

Hello, everyone. Good morning, and thank you for joining Phillips 66 second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Participants on today's call will include Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO; Kevin Mitchell, CFO; Don Baldridge, Midstream and Chemicals; Rich Harbison, Refining; and Brian Mandell, Marketing, Commercial and Renewable Fuels. Today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website, along with supplemental financial and operating information.

各位好。早安，感謝各位參加 Phillips 66 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與會者包括董事長兼執行長 Mark Lashier；財務長 Kevin Mitchell；中游與化學事業 Don Baldridge；煉油事業 Rich Harbison；以及行銷、商業與再生燃料事業 Brian Mandell。今天的簡報可在 Phillips 66 官網的投資人關係專區找到，並附有補充的財務與營運資訊。

Slide 2 contains our safe harbor statement. We will be making forward-looking statements during today's call. Actual results may differ materially from today's comments. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our SEC filings.

第 2 張投影片包含我們的安全港聲明。我們在今天的電話會議中將作出前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與今天的評論有重大差異。可能導致實際結果不同的因素已列於此處，亦載於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

接下來，我把電話交給 Mark。

Thank you, Sean. This quarter's operating results reflect the dedication and work that our teams have delivered throughout the company's transformation over these past several years. Our system is operating well. Our assets are well positioned and the market environment is constructive. While there's more work to do, we believe our organization's earning power is becoming clear as we continue to drive execution and return capital to shareholders.

謝謝你，Sean。本季的營運成果反映了我們團隊在過去幾年公司轉型過程中所展現的投入與努力。我們的系統運作良好。我們的資產布局得宜，市場環境也具建設性。雖然仍有更多工作要做，但我們相信，隨著我們持續推動執行並將資本回饋股東，我們組織的獲利能力正逐步清晰。

Safety, reliability and operational excellence remain at the center of everything we do. We recently earned industry recognition for exemplary safety performance in Midstream, Refining and Chemicals. Due to our steadfast focus on reliability, our integrated businesses are available to supply US and global energy needs. At Phillips 66, operational excellence is foundational. We remain focused on disciplined execution and continuous improvement.

安全、可靠性與卓越營運仍是我們一切工作的核心。我們近期在中游、煉油與化學領域因卓越的安全表現獲得業界肯定。由於我們對可靠性的堅定專注，我們的整合型業務可隨時供應美國及全球的能源需求。在 Phillips 66，卓越營運是根本。我們仍將專注於嚴謹的執行與持續改善。

Our Midstream business continues to execute on its growth plan as expected. Over the past two years, we've increased fractionation capacity to over 1 million barrels per day and achieved greater than 100% average frac utilization. During the quarter, we also achieved record LPG export volumes. Our complete wellhead to market system allows us to move products across our integrated value chain and offers customers valuable optionality and global access.

我們的中游業務持續按計畫推進成長策略，表現符合預期。過去兩年，我們將分餾產能提升至每日超過 100 萬桶，且平均分餾設備利用率達到並超過 100%。本季我們也創下液化石油氣（LPG）出口量新高。我們從井口到市場的完整系統，使我們能在整合價值鏈中移動產品，並為客戶提供寶貴的選擇性與全球通路。

In Refining, our deliberate focus on operational improvement continues to deliver results. We have enhanced the portfolio, increased clean product yield, improved our cost structure, led the industry in utilization and increased our nameplate capacity. Supported by a strong contribution from our commercial organization, we captured 98% of our market indicator in the second quarter.

在煉油方面，我們有意識地聚焦營運改善，持續帶來成果。我們已優化資產組合、提高潔淨產品收率、改善成本結構、在利用率方面領先同業，並提升名目產能。在商業團隊強力貢獻的支持下，我們於第二季掌握了市場指標的 98%。

In Renewables, we have scale, flexibility and strong operations at one of the largest renewable diesel facilities in the world. As the uncertainty over renewable credit regulations unfolded in 2025, we engaged constructively with state and federal regulators and continue to do so. We also focused on taking costs out of the system and improving reliability and flexibility. To that end, we ran above nameplate capacity during the quarter.

在再生能源方面，我們在全球最大規模之一的再生柴油設施具備規模、彈性與強勁的營運能力。隨著 2025 年再生能源抵換額度法規的不確定性逐步發展，我們與州與聯邦監管機構進行具建設性的互動，並將持續如此。我們也專注於降低系統成本，並提升可靠性與彈性。因此，本季我們的運轉量高於名目產能。

In Chemicals, our industry-leading position is clear. These are advantaged assets positioned at the low end of the feedstock cost curve. Across all of our businesses, we continue to raise the bar. Make no mistake, we must compete every day. Our teams continue to find new ways to maximize value through improving operations, increasing yields, expanding margins and lowering costs.

在化學品方面，我們的產業領先地位十分明確。這些具優勢的資產位於原料成本曲線的低端。在我們所有業務中，我們持續提高標準。毫無疑問，我們必須每天競爭。我們的團隊持續透過改善營運、提高收率、擴大利差並降低成本，尋找最大化價值的新方法。

Moving to slide 4. We process low-cost hydrocarbons from the US, Canada and Latin America and turn them into higher-value usable products for customers. As global supply and demand dynamics become more complex, our integrated model positions us for long-term value creation. We are investing for the next decade, not just the next quarter.

接著看第 4 張投影片。我們處理來自美國、加拿大與拉丁美洲的低成本碳氫化合物，並將其轉化為更高價值、可供客戶使用的產品。隨著全球供需動態愈加複雜，我們的整合模式使我們具備長期價值創造的有利位置。我們投資著眼於未來十年，而不僅是下一季。

The Midstream and Marketing and Specialties businesses deliver reliable cash flows while Refining, Chemicals and Renewables generate attractive incremental returns with commodity upside. We've built an integrated North America infrastructure system. We'll continue to focus on being the best in every segment of our portfolio, all while maximizing shareholder returns. That's what makes Phillips 66 unique. We have a resilient business model, advantaged assets, strong commercial capabilities and significant earnings potential.

中游以及行銷與特種產品業務提供穩健的現金流；而煉油、化學品與再生能源則在具備商品上行空間的同時，帶來具吸引力的增量報酬。我們已建立一套整合的北美基礎設施系統。我們將持續專注於在投資組合的每個領域都做到最好，同時最大化股東報酬。這正是 Phillips 66 的獨特之處。我們擁有具韌性的商業模式、具優勢的資產、強大的商業能力，以及顯著的獲利潛力。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Kevin as we move to slide 5.

現在，隨著我們進入第 5 張投影片，我把電話交給 Kevin。

Thank you, Mark. Last year, we committed to reduce total debt to $17 billion by year end 2027 and to return greater than 50% of net operating cash flow, excluding working capital to shareholders. Our focus on these priorities has not wavered, and we expect to deliver on our debt commitment ahead of schedule.

謝謝你，Mark。去年，我們承諾在 2027 年底前將總負債降至 170 億美元，並將超過 50% 的淨營運現金流（不含營運資金）回饋股東。我們對這些優先事項的專注從未動搖，且我們預期將提前達成負債承諾。

In the second quarter, we made significant progress on strengthening the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $20.6 billion and net debt of $16.5 billion. This positions us better than where we started the year. And using current consensus estimates, we expect net debt to be less than $16 billion by the end of this year.

在第二季，我們在強化資產負債表方面取得顯著進展。本季末總負債為 206 億美元，淨負債為 165 億美元。這使我們的狀況優於年初。並且依據目前市場一致預估，我們預期今年底淨負債將低於 160 億美元。

We expect to achieve our debt target, while also returning greater than 50% of net operating cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This is a core strategic priority, and we expect to increase share repurchases in the second half of this year.

我們預期在達成負債目標的同時，也將透過股利與庫藏股回購，向股東回饋超過 50% 的淨營運現金流。這是核心策略優先事項，我們預期在今年下半年提高股票回購規模。

Our disciplined capital allocation framework allows us to enhance our shareholder value proposition. We remain committed to a secure, competitive and growing dividend and to creating value for our stakeholders through disciplined capital investment, dividends, share repurchases and debt reduction.

我們嚴謹的資本配置架構，使我們能提升對股東的價值主張。我們仍致力於提供安全、具競爭力且可成長的股利，並透過嚴謹的資本投資、股利、股票回購與降低負債，為利害關係人創造價值。

On slide 6, second quarter reported and adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion. Reported and adjusted earnings per share were $9.55 and $9.41, respectively. The company's second quarter financial results were impacted by mark-to-market gains of approximately 50% of the first quarter mark-to-market losses.

在第 6 張投影片，本季公告與調整後盈餘為 38 億美元。公告與調整後每股盈餘分別為 9.55 美元與 9.41 美元。公司第二季財務結果受到按市價評價（mark-to-market）收益影響，約為第一季按市價評價損失的 50%。

Operating cash flow, excluding working capital, was $4.3 billion. Capital spending for the quarter was $726 million. We returned $887 million to shareholders, including $379 million of share repurchases and $508 million of dividend payments.

不含營運資金的營運現金流為 43 億美元。本季資本支出為 7.26 億美元。我們向股東回饋 8.87 億美元，其中包括 3.79 億美元的股票回購與 5.08 億美元的股利發放。

I will now cover the segment results on slide 7. Total company adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion. Midstream results increased mainly due to higher margins as well as higher volumes, largely driven by the absence of last quarter's Winter Storm Fern impacts.

我現在將在第 7 張投影片說明各事業部門的表現。全公司調整後盈餘為 38 億美元。中游業績增加主要來自較高的利差以及較高的銷量，主要受惠於本季不再受到上一季冬季風暴 Fern 影響。

In Chemicals, results increased mainly due to higher polyethylene margins driven by higher sales prices. Refining results increased mainly due to higher realized margins driven by an increase in market crack spreads. Marketing and Specialties results increased mainly due to higher global marketing margins.

在化學品方面，業績增加主要因聚乙烯利差提高，係由較高的銷售價格所帶動。煉油業績增加主要因實現利差提高，係由市場裂解價差（crack spreads）擴大所驅動。行銷與特種產品業績增加主要因全球行銷利差提高。

In Renewable Fuels, results increased mainly due to higher regulatory credits from higher pricing and renewable fuels production. Also included in the results are approximately $450 million of favorable mark-to-market impacts in the Refining, Marketing & Specialties and Renewable Fuel segments. In Corporate & Other, the pretax loss decreased primarily due to lower net interest expense and employee-related costs.

在再生燃料方面，業績增加主要因法規抵換額度提高，來自較高的價格與再生燃料產量。業績亦包含煉油、行銷與特種產品以及再生燃料部門約 4.5 億美元的有利按市價評價影響。在公司與其他（Corporate & Other）方面，稅前虧損下降主要因淨利息費用與員工相關成本降低。

Slide 8 shows cash flow for the quarter. We started the quarter with a $5.2 billion cash balance. Cash from operations, excluding working capital, was $4.3 billion. There was a $2.9 billion working capital benefit due to a reduction in inventory as well as the timing of tax payments.

投影片 8 顯示本季的現金流。我們以 52 億美元的現金餘額開始本季。營運現金流（不含營運資金）為 43 億美元。由於庫存下降以及稅款支付時點的影響，營運資金帶來 29 億美元的正面效益。

Total debt reduced significantly during the quarter as we paid off all outstanding commercial paper and repaid $1 billion of the March 2027 term loan. The remaining $1.25 billion balance on the term loan was paid off in July. We ended the quarter with $4.1 billion in cash and $6.4 billion in committed capacity, giving us total committed liquidity of $10.5 billion.

本季我們大幅降低總負債，因為我們清償了所有未償還的商業本票，並償還了 2027 年 3 月到期的定期貸款 10 億美元。該定期貸款剩餘的 12.5 億美元餘額已於 7 月清償。本季末我們持有 41 億美元現金，以及 64 億美元的承諾額度，使我們的承諾流動性總額達 105 億美元。

Looking ahead to the third quarter on slide 9. In Chemicals, we expect the global O&P utilization rate to be in the low 90s. In Refining, we expect the worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the mid-90s. Turnaround expense is expected to be between $100 million and $120 million. We anticipate Corporate & Other costs to be between $325 million and $350 million.

展望投影片 9 的第三季。在化學品業務方面，我們預期全球 O&P（烯烴與聚烯烴）產能利用率將落在 90% 出頭。在煉油業務方面，我們預期全球原油加工利用率將落在 90% 中段。歲修費用預計介於 1 億至 1.2 億美元之間。我們預期公司與其他成本介於 3.25 億至 3.5 億美元之間。

Moving to slide 10. Mark will now provide some final thoughts. We will then open the line for questions.

接著看投影片 10。Mark 現在將提供一些最後的想法。之後我們將開放提問。

Volatility in the first half of the year created both challenges and opportunities, and our team was prepared, agile and focused on execution. This enabled us to navigate the market and capture value through strong Refining performance, disciplined Midstream growth and flexible, opportunistic commercial execution across our portfolio.

今年上半年市場波動帶來挑戰也帶來機會，而我們的團隊已做好準備，反應敏捷並專注於執行。這使我們能夠在市場中穩健前行，並透過強勁的煉油表現、嚴謹的中游成長，以及在整體投資組合中靈活且把握時機的商業執行來掌握價值。

Looking ahead, the macro environment remains constructive. We are focused on continuous operating improvement, and our people are helping drive that progress as they leverage the advantages of our asset footprint. In any market, including this one, we will continue to maintain capital discipline and stay focused on the balance sheet while pursuing meaningful opportunities to drive long-term value. Our integrated model, together with our employees, provides resilience and opportunity, positioning us to manage through volatility and capture the benefits of a strengthening macro environment for shareholders.

展望未來，總體環境仍具建設性。我們專注於持續的營運改善，而我們的員工正運用資產版圖的優勢來推動這項進展。在任何市場（包括目前這個市場）中，我們將持續維持資本紀律、聚焦資產負債表，同時追求能夠推動長期價值的重大機會。我們的整合式模式，加上員工的努力，帶來韌性與機會，使我們能在波動中穩健管理，並為股東掌握總體環境轉強所帶來的效益。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Richardson, Evercore.

(接線員指示) Steve Richardson，Evercore。

Mark, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the environment and what you're seeing. The last time, Refining profitability was at this level for you and the industry was 2022. And I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing versus that time. What the path to normalization looks like, if that's even possible to kind of envision at this point? And then, how is Phillips 66 differentially positioned versus that time would also be helpful.

Mark，我想請你談談目前的環境以及你所觀察到的情況。上一次你們與整個產業的煉油獲利能力達到這個水準是在 2022 年。我想請你比較一下你現在看到的情況與當時有何不同。所謂回歸常態的路徑會是什麼樣子——如果在此刻還能想像得出來的話？另外，Phillips 66 相較於當時有哪些差異化的定位，也請你分享，會很有幫助。

Yeah, Steve, that's a great question. When you think back to 2022 versus today, there are really a couple of major differences. You think about 2022, there was a demand surge coming out of COVID. Right about the time when the entire refining complex was getting its act back together, recovering from COVID, we were reluctant to take shutdowns. We were reluctant to do all the maintenance we needed to do during COVID for fear of an outbreak, and we had to catch up.

是的，Steve，這是個很好的問題。回想 2022 年與今天，確實有幾個主要差異。在 2022 年，COVID 之後出現需求激增。就在整個煉油體系逐步恢復、從 COVID 中把狀態調整回來的同時，我們對停工檢修相對保守。在 COVID 期間，因擔心疫情爆發，我們也不太願意進行所需的維護作業，結果後來必須補做。

And so those two things collided in 2022. And it's different than today because the resolution of those two things happened more quickly. Everyone got their maintenance completed. Actually took advantage of the run-up in margins to make the investments they needed to be more robust and the demand normalized a bit. And now when you look at what's going on, it's more of a supply shock than a demand shock. You've had significant refining capacity off-line and stocks are low.

因此，這兩件事在 2022 年碰撞在一起。而與今天不同的是，當時這兩件事的解決速度更快。大家都完成了維護檢修。實際上也利用利差擴大的機會，投入必要的資本支出以提升韌性，而需求也稍微回歸常態。但現在你看到的情況更像是供給衝擊，而不是需求衝擊。有相當多的煉油產能離線，且庫存偏低。

And so we see it taking a lot longer for that situation to normalize than what we saw in 2022. But the second piece of the story is Phillips 66. We're a very different company than we were in 2022. A big part of it during the business transformation, our culture evolved pretty dramatically.

因此，我們認為這種情況要回歸常態所需的時間，會比 2022 年更長。但故事的第二部分是 Phillips 66。我們已經是一家與 2022 年非常不同的公司。在業務轉型期間，我們的企業文化也有相當顯著的演進。

And we are a leaner company, we're more agile and more focused on continuous improvement in competition. We're embracing AI out at the front line level. We're doing a lot of things that are AI-enabled. So it's really enhanced how we respond to the market and how we do things.

我們變得更精實、更敏捷，也更專注於持續改善與競爭力。我們在第一線層級就開始擁抱 AI。我們正在做很多由 AI 賦能的事情。因此，這確實強化了我們對市場的反應速度以及做事方式。

Refining has dramatically improved its performance. We've streamlined the portfolio. We've added capacity by rolling up WRB. And Rich and his spokes have cut over $1, headed towards $1.50 per barrel of cost of the Refining. And in the meantime, while we're cutting costs, we've been improving yields and improving utilizations. Underlying that, the Midstream portfolio is now a wellhead to market strategy fully in place and it's been growing. And so we've got a lot of strengths there and a great foundation.

煉油業務的表現已大幅提升。我們精簡了投資組合。透過整合 WRB，我們增加了產能。Rich 和他的團隊已將煉油成本降低超過每桶 1 美元，並正朝每桶 1.50 美元的目標邁進。同時，在降成本的過程中，我們也提升了收率並提高了產能利用率。在此基礎上，中游投資組合如今已完整落實「從井口到市場」的策略，且持續成長。因此，我們在這方面具備許多優勢與很好的基礎。

So the company is focused on driving and leaning into that integration value, focus on general interest, not just our functional earnings. And I would say that Phillips is positioned better than ever to successfully execute in this in any environment. And the headline should be that at this point in time, this is the case where preparation meets opportunity, and we're delivering.

因此，公司聚焦於推動並深化整合價值，著眼於整體利益，而不僅僅是各功能別的獲利。我會說，Phillips 的定位比以往任何時候都更好，能在任何環境中成功執行。而重點應該是：此刻正是「準備遇上機會」，而我們正在交出成果。

That's great. I'd love to follow up just a little bit more if we could on commercial. Could you give us a sense of incrementally at least in the quarter and year-to-date how the commercial teams are attacking this environment in terms of refining? Anything incrementally on freight, transport, crude sourcing, the entire value chain would be helpful from a commercial perspective.

很好。如果可以的話，我想再就商業端追問一點。你能否讓我們了解一下，至少在本季以及年初至今，商業團隊在煉油方面是如何因應這個環境的？從商業角度來看，若能分享在運費、運輸、原油採購、整個價值鏈上有哪些增量作為，會很有幫助。

Thanks, Steve. This is Brian. Appreciate the question on commercial. Maybe I'll start by saying I'm incredibly proud of the commercial team, particularly through this period of historical volatility. The team has done an excellent job.

謝謝，Steve。我是 Brian。感謝你對商業端的提問。我先說，我對商業團隊感到非常自豪，尤其是在這段歷史性波動期間。團隊做得非常出色。

And for P66, commercial is kind of a key source of optimization value because it connects our physical assets to market dislocations and opportunities around the world. As you know, we have six global offices. The organization optimizes feedstocks, moves products into the highest value markets and also captures value from optionality from arbitrage, captures value from market structure opportunities as well. And our model at Phillips is an asset-backed model, which means we use our physical footprint. We use our logistics capabilities and integration and our market access to capture value when markets dislocate.

對 P66 而言，商業端可說是最佳化價值的重要來源，因為它把我們的實體資產與全球各地的市場錯位與機會連結起來。如你所知，我們在全球有六個辦公室。該組織會最佳化原料，將產品移往價值最高的市場，也會利用套利的選擇權捕捉價值，同時也會把握市場結構帶來的機會。而 Phillips 的模式是以資產為後盾的模式，意味著我們運用實體版圖。我們運用物流能力與整合優勢，以及市場進入能力，在市場出現錯位時捕捉價值。

So maybe just to give you some examples. In today's market, we can substitute lower-cost domestic grades for more expensive international grades in our US refining system and then sell those more expensive international grades at a profit. Or as you talked about on freight, our time charter freight position has given us a lot of optionality in tight logistics markets. We've expanded our fleet fourfold in the past two years. And now it supports roughly 40% of our asset-backed demand while also generating a new third-party business.

我舉幾個例子。在當前市場中，我們可以在美國煉油系統以成本較低的國內油種替代較昂貴的國際油種，並將那些較昂貴的國際油種以獲利方式出售。或者如你提到的運費方面，我們的定期租船運費部位在物流緊俏的市場中提供了很大的選擇性。過去兩年我們將船隊規模擴大了四倍。目前它約支援我們以資產為後盾需求的 40%，同時也帶來新的第三方業務。

And then Jones Act is another example of how commercial creates value. We've been granted about 20% of the Jones Act waivers issued since the current waiver took effect in March. And combined with our freight position, these waivers have improved our ability to optimize feedstock and product flows from our Refining business, Marketing business and Midstream businesses.

接著，《瓊斯法案》（Jones Act）是商業部門如何創造價值的另一個例子。自現行豁免於3月生效以來，我們獲准的《瓊斯法案》豁免約占已核發豁免的20%。再加上我們的運費部位，這些豁免提升了我們在煉油業務、行銷業務與中游業務之間，最佳化原料與產品流向的能力。

And then finally, as a result of our time charter fleet growth and increased Panama Canal transits, we now hold a favorable canal ranking. You haven't heard a lot of people talk about this. We're 26 out of 556, which allows us to schedule transits well in advance, avoid high auction fees and reduce waiting times and improve on-time reliability.

最後，隨著我們定期租船（time charter）船隊成長以及巴拿馬運河通行次數增加，我們現在擁有有利的運河排序。你們不太常聽到有人談這件事。我們在556家中排名第26，這讓我們能提前很久安排通行、避免高額拍賣費用、縮短等待時間，並提升準時可靠度。

So ultimately, I'd sum up by saying commercial is focused on creating value across our integrated businesses by capturing the embedded optionality within and across the system.

總結來說，我會說商業部門專注於透過掌握系統內部及跨系統的內嵌選擇權（embedded optionality），在我們整合式業務版圖中創造價值。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

These are probably for Kevin. I apologize in advance. But Kevin, the step down in your net debt this quarter takes your net debt at least below your $17 billion total debt target. Now you've got line of sight to the end of the year. Previously, you justified this on a multiple of, call it, stable EBITDA. But I think whether you agree with elevated margins or not, elevated free cash flow currently, it seems to us that you've got an opportunity to reset that net debt target or that debt target substantially lower. So that's my question. Where do we go after the end of 2027 and maybe even before then?

這些問題大概是問Kevin的。我先道歉。不過Kevin，你們本季淨負債的下降，使淨負債至少低於你們170億美元的總負債目標。現在你們對年底已經有清楚的可見度。先前你們是以某個倍數（就稱之為）穩定的EBITDA來論證這個目標。但不論你是否同意目前利差偏高、自由現金流偏高，我們看起來你們有機會把淨負債目標或負債目標大幅下修。所以我的問題是：2027年底之後我們該怎麼看，甚至可能在那之前就會如何？

Then my follow-up very quickly is to Mark. You've had this 50% or more than 50% of operating cash flow target return to shareholders for a while. But there's two pieces to that, Mark. There's the buyback always at risk of being procyclical and there's a dividend. So how do you think about this debate of whatever mid-cycle and whatever Phillips 66 owned free cash flow potential might be going forward? What's the right dividend strategy for Phillips as you fulfill, for example, your Midstream growth and so on? And I'll leave it there.

接著我很快的追問是給Mark。你們維持「將50%或超過50%的營運現金流回饋股東」這個目標已經一段時間了。但這裡有兩個部分，Mark。其一是回購，總是有順週期（procyclical）的風險；其二是股利。所以你如何看待這個討論：未來在中週期情境下、以及Phillips 66自有的自由現金流潛力可能會是什麼樣子？當你們推進例如中游成長等計畫時，Phillips的正確股利策略應該是什麼？我就先問到這裡。

Yeah, Doug. So you're exactly right in terms of where we were on debt target. And I will reiterate the $17 billion debt target that we had was a good target. We had sound logic for how we developed that, and it was a sub-3 times multiple on the Midstream and M&S EBITDA that can comfortably support that debt level. But I do agree with you that in a period of strong cash generation, like we are in right now, we have the opportunity to go lower than that. $16.5 billion at the end of the second quarter, I expect that to go down between now and the end of the year.

是的，Doug。就負債目標而言，你說得完全正確。我再重申，我們先前設定的170億美元負債目標是個好的目標。我們制定它有合理的邏輯：以中游與M&S（Marketing & Specialties，行銷與特用產品）EBITDA計算，倍數低於3倍，足以穩健支撐該負債水準。但我也同意你，在像現在這樣現金創造強勁的期間，我們確實有機會把負債降得更低。第二季末是165億美元，我預期在現在到年底之間還會再下降。

And so on a net debt level, I think of a next sort of target is something around about $13.5 billion, which would equate to a $15 billion or thereabouts balance sheet debt number. I don't want to reset the target in absolute debt level terms just because we're also restricted by the -- or impacted by the maturity schedule of the debt we have out there. And what I'm not going to do is make uneconomic decisions to retire debt early.

因此就淨負債水準而言，我認為下一個目標大約在135億美元左右，這相當於資產負債表上的總負債約150億美元上下。我不想以「絕對負債」的角度重設目標，因為我們也受到——或說會受到——現有債務到期時程的限制與影響。而我不會做的是，為了提前償還債務而做出不具經濟效益的決策。

So we'll manage that as best we can. But from a net debt standpoint, I think in terms of this sort of $13.5 billion to $14 billion as an appropriate next target that is certainly achievable based on the kind of environment that we're looking at right now.

所以我們會盡可能妥善管理。但從淨負債的角度，我認為大約135億到140億美元是合適的下一個目標；以我們目前所處的環境來看，這絕對可達成。

Yeah, Doug, your second question, I think that I'd take you back to 2022, we made some pretty aggressive commitments to deliver returns to shareholders. We set our 50% target, but we also committed to dramatically improve Refining performance to roll up DCP and create a wellhead to market presence. And to improve Refining, grow Refining, grow Midstream, all of those things required us to use the balance sheet as a tool along with asset sales.

是的，Doug，關於你的第二個問題，我會帶你回到2022年，我們做出一些相當積極的承諾，要把報酬回饋給股東。我們設定了50%的目標，同時也承諾要大幅改善煉油表現、整併DCP，並建立從井口到市場（wellhead to market）的布局。而要改善煉油、擴大煉油、擴大中游，這些都需要我們把資產負債表當作工具，並搭配資產出售。

And if you look at what we did quite effectively over that time frame, it really positioned us to excel today when the macro is favorable. And so the payoff is that we're going to be able to lean into both share repurchases and debt reduction. And the share repurchases will allow us to keep pace with our dividend increases even more dramatically. So we'll be taking a close look at that and having conversations with our Board how best to go forward there.

如果你回頭看我們在那段期間相當有效的作為，確實讓我們在今天宏觀環境有利時具備更強的競爭力。因此回報就是，我們將能同時加大力道進行股票回購與降低負債。而股票回購也將讓我們能更有力地跟上、甚至更大幅度地提高股利。所以我們會仔細檢視，並與董事會討論未來最好的推進方式。

Does anyone would think you were an oil major, Mark?

Mark，有沒有人會以為你們是石油巨頭（oil major）？

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，Doug。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

Manav Gupta，瑞銀（UBS）。

Congrats on a strong quarter. I was wondering if I could do some quick maths with you. Your guidance for year-end run rate Midstream EBITDA is about $4.5 billion for 2027 year end. If you take out the tax and interest expenses, it's about $3.3 billion in free cash that, that business generates. Now that number strikes us because that's exactly your dividend burden plus your sustaining CapEx.

恭喜本季表現強勁。我想看看能不能跟你們做個快速的數學計算。你們對2027年底中游EBITDA年化運行水準（run rate）的指引大約是45億美元。如果扣掉稅與利息費用，該業務產生的自由現金大約是33億美元。這個數字之所以引起我們注意，是因為它剛好等於你們的股利負擔加上維持性資本支出（sustaining CapEx）。

So what I'm trying to understand is, once you are at this $4.5 billion run rate EBITDA, can your Midstream fully support your sustaining CapEx for the full company and the dividend burden? And what I'm trying to get to is if that grows at like mid-single digits, the Midstream business from these projects that you're announcing, would that mean that Midstream could then support like a 4% to 5% dividend growth just on its own? If you could talk about some of those dynamics.

所以我想了解的是，一旦你們達到這個45億美元的EBITDA運行水準，中游是否能完全支撐全公司的維持性資本支出與股利負擔？我想進一步推導的是：如果你們宣布的這些專案讓中游業務以中個位數成長，那是否意味著中游本身就能支撐約4%到5%的股利成長？如果你能談談其中的一些動態。

Manav, first of all, you're quite good at math, and we appreciate you doing that for everyone. You're absolutely right. That's why we like the Midstream business. We think of the Midstream business as the foundation under our fortress of the rest of our portfolio that Midstream along with Marketing and Specialties provides that consistent cash generation to cover the sustaining capital and the dividends. And today, a significant portion of our interest expense, and we see that only getting better. And absolutely, as you look forward, that will contribute to our ability to drive that competitive growing and sustainable dividend.

Manav，首先，你的數學很好，我們也感謝你替大家算出來。你完全正確。這也是我們喜歡中游業務的原因。我們把中游視為我們其餘投資組合「堡壘」下方的地基；中游加上行銷與特用產品，提供穩定的現金創造，用來覆蓋維持性資本與股利。而在今天，我們相當大一部分的利息費用也能被涵蓋，而且我們預期只會持續改善。當然，展望未來，這將有助於我們推動具競爭力、成長且可持續的股利。

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is your partner was indicating that you are very close to the FID of Western Gateway. So I wanted to understand the benefits of that project, if you could reiterate? And should we expect FID sooner than later because it does add in a big way to your Midstream backlog when it does FID?

很好。我這邊很快的追問是，你們的合作夥伴表示你們非常接近Western Gateway的最終投資決策（FID）。所以我想請你們重申一下這個專案的效益？另外，是否應該預期FID會比晚更早，因為一旦做出FID，它會大幅增加你們的中游在手專案（backlog）？

Manav, this is Don. I appreciate the Western Gateway question. We do expect that we would be able to FID the Western Gateway project here in a month or so. We are finalizing the definitive documents and finishing up the details around scope and ensuring we have a solid project execution plan.

Manav，我是Don。謝謝你問到Western Gateway。我們確實預期大約在一個月左右就能對Western Gateway專案做出FID。我們正在敲定最終正式文件，並完成範疇細節，同時確保我們有扎實的專案執行計畫。

So with a summer FID, what we would expect is to be able to deliver reliable, secure fuel from the Mid-Continent to the Western US by the latter part of 2029. We think that's a tremendous benefit to the market in the Western US, where the need for reliable, secure supply coming from the Mid-Continent of the US will be a benefit. It's a great addition to the market. It will help the Mid-Continent set up as well.

因此，若在夏季做出最終投資決策（FID），我們預期可在2029年後期，將可靠且安全的燃料自美國中部（Mid-Continent）輸送至美國西部。我們認為這將為美國西部市場帶來巨大利益，因為來自美國中部的可靠、安全供應將成為一項優勢。這會是對市場的絕佳補充。也將有助於美國中部的布局。

So I think as we've talked about, it's the right project at the right time. It will generate the right returns for Phillips 66. So very excited to advance the project and looking forward to its completion.

所以我認為，正如我們所談到的，這是在對的時間做對的專案。它將為Phillips 66帶來合適的報酬。因此我們非常期待推進該專案，並期待其完工。

Justin Jenkins, Raymond James.

Justin Jenkins，Raymond James。

I'd like to start maybe on the line of Steve's first question on Refining. Obviously, the macro has been incredibly favorable, but you've seen pretty solid capture rate momentum for a few quarters now. Mark, you touched on some of the internal drivers of that in your first answer, but how much more running room do we have with both self-help and maybe some quick hit projects in Refining to drive even more momentum here?

我想先從Steve第一個關於煉油（Refining）問題的脈絡開始。顯然總體環境一直非常有利，但你們已經連續幾個季度看到相當穩健的市場捕捉率（capture rate）動能。Mark，你在第一個回答中提到了一些內部驅動因素，但在煉油端，無論是自助改善（self-help）或一些快速見效的專案（quick hit projects），我們還有多少空間可以繼續推動更大的動能？

Yeah. Rich has a long list of self-help and quick hits. We're looking for high-return, quick-payout projects, but he can run through that with you.

是的。Rich手上有一長串自助改善與快速見效的項目。我們在尋找高報酬、回收期短的專案，但他可以跟你逐一說明。

Justin, thanks for the question. And we've obviously been on a journey here for a couple of years on this particular subject. And that's really around growing our ability to capture the marketplace and be flexible in the marketplace and also controlling what we can control. That's the other part of this. So we've been keenly focused on molecule management inside of the fence. And then maybe after this, I'll turn it over to Brian a little bit, and he can talk about outside of the fence parts that we're doing to stabilize and lock in a high market capture rate for the assets.

Justin，謝謝你的問題。我們在這個特定議題上，顯然已經走了幾年的路。核心在於提升我們掌握市場的能力、在市場中的彈性，以及同時把我們能控制的事情控制好。這是另一個部分。因此我們一直高度聚焦在廠區圍籬內（inside of the fence）的分子管理（molecule management）。接著我可能會把話題交給Brian一點，讓他談談我們在圍籬外（outside of the fence）所做的事情，以穩定並鎖定資產的高市場捕捉率。

Inside the fence, we've done a series of actions. One, one is we've taken the time to evaluate every key process unit we have and look for opportunities to better manage the molecules inside of those. And that process has been completed. It was a very detailed exercise, and it has come up with a number of good opportunities that we have implemented or will be continuing to implement, which will improve the molecule management across the system.

在圍籬內，我們採取了一系列行動。第一，我們花時間評估每一個關鍵製程單元，並尋找更好管理其中分子的機會。這個流程已經完成。這是一個非常細緻的工作，找出了許多不錯的機會；我們已經實施或將持續實施，這將改善整個系統的分子管理。

The other thing we've done as well is we've increased our -- restructured our organization. And the purpose of the restructure was really to focus key parts of the organization on key success points inside the operation of the plant and avoid distractions and really just focus that organization on achieving world-class operations. And then, of course, as you indicated, we've done a number of small capital projects as well. And these projects have very high returns on a very low capital base.

另外，我們也提升了——並重整了我們的組織。重整的目的，是讓組織的關鍵部分聚焦在工廠營運中的關鍵成功要素上，避免分心，真正把組織聚焦在達成世界級營運。當然，如你所提到的，我們也做了許多小型資本專案。這些專案在很低的資本基礎上，能帶來非常高的報酬。

And maybe just a couple of those, I'll rattle off here, and there's many of them. So I won't be able to touch on all of them, but one project we've got active right now, and it's due to start up next year is a low sulfur gasoline project at the Humber facility. And that's very timely actually for us as we've also picked up the Prax assets there, which provide great logistics for us, enhanced logistics to reach the inner markets of the UK and the London market. So the timing of those two asset purchase as well as the project is very good.

我簡單列舉其中幾個——其實還有很多。所以我無法全部涵蓋，但我們目前有一個正在進行的專案，預計明年投產，是Humber廠的低硫汽油專案。對我們而言時機非常剛好，因為我們也在那裡收購了Prax資產，為我們提供很好的物流能力，並強化物流以觸及英國內陸市場與倫敦市場。因此，這兩項資產收購以及該專案的時點搭配得非常好。

We see some opportunities at the Ferndale facility as well. There's a project to increase jet production. It's a two-phase project. We'll actually get first phase done this year. Second phase will finish up next year. And once that second phase is finished up, that will actually produce about 12,000 barrels a day of jet fuel out of the Ferndale facility. And Ferndale is also producing CARB gasoline as well.

我們也在Ferndale廠看到一些機會。有一個提高航煤（jet）產量的專案。這是一個兩階段專案。第一階段會在今年完成。第二階段將在明年完成。當第二階段完成後，Ferndale廠的航煤產量將約為每日12,000桶。而Ferndale也生產CARB汽油。

So it's become a nice point for us to pick up supply to bring into the California market from the West Coast, supported by a number of activities that Brian is doing. And maybe that's a good bridge over to Brian here, and you can talk about outside of the fence, what we're doing to harden the capture rate.

因此，這對我們而言成為一個不錯的據點，可在西岸取得供應並輸往加州市場，並由Brian正在推動的一系列活動提供支援。我想這也正好銜接到Brian，請你談談圍籬外我們在做什麼，以強化市場捕捉率。

Sure. Justin, maybe you've given me a chance to talk about our value chain optimization team because that's a core team that kind of looks at opportunities to drive market capture. They maximize profitability across regions, across segments and across our integrated value chains as opposed to just looking at individual assets. And we were an early adopter of the VCO model, and we continue to strengthen the team. And they use data-driven decision-making, clear accountability and look for execution to drive this kind of market capture.

好的。Justin，你也許給了我一個機會談談我們的價值鏈優化（VCO，value chain optimization）團隊，因為這是一個核心團隊，專門尋找推動市場捕捉的機會。他們是在跨區域、跨事業部門以及跨整合價值鏈的層面最大化獲利，而不是只看單一資產。我們很早就採用VCO模式，並持續強化這個團隊。他們運用數據驅動的決策、清楚的責任歸屬，並著重執行力來推動這類市場捕捉。

And so I'll just give you some examples of kind of what the team has been working on and some of the things they've been doing. A relentless focus on lowering feedstock costs to improve market capture, including building a leading position in advantaged crudes, such as Canadian crude, PMI fuel oil and now becoming the third largest buyer of Venezuelan crude worldwide. They've utilized our marine time charter fleet in conjunction with the Jones Act waiver to substitute foreign crudes with WTI-based crudes at our Bayway Refinery and that helped mitigate the impact of Middle East conflict.

我舉幾個例子，說明團隊正在做的工作與一些作法。他們持續且不懈地聚焦於降低原料成本以提升市場捕捉率，包括在具優勢的原油上建立領先地位，例如加拿大原油、PMI燃料油，並且目前已成為全球第三大委內瑞拉原油買家。他們也結合我們的海運期租船隊（time charter fleet）與《瓊斯法案》（Jones Act）豁免，在Bayway煉油廠以WTI為基礎的原油替代外國原油，這有助於緩解中東衝突的影響。

And then while continuing to maintain strong crude utilization, VCO also has strengthened integration across intermediate feedstock activity and refinery execution, enabling us higher confidence decisions to optimize intermediate purchases and drove record high secondary unit utilization in 2Q. And then finally, the team increased along with our refinery brethren, increased the distillate production by approximately 35,000 barrels a day in Q2.

此外，在持續維持強勁原油加工量的同時，VCO也強化了中間原料活動與煉油執行之間的整合，使我們能更有把握地做出決策來優化中間品採購，並在第二季推動二次加工裝置（secondary unit）利用率創下新高。最後，該團隊也與我們的煉油同仁一起，在第二季將餾分油（distillate）產量提高約每日35,000桶。

So all these examples demonstrate VCO's ability to translate market opportunities into commercial, operational and financial results.

因此，這些例子都展現了VCO將市場機會轉化為商業、營運與財務成果的能力。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan Securities LLC.

Arun Jayaram，JPMorgan Securities LLC。

I wanted to see if we could get a little bit of an update on your 2027 strategic priorities. You guys highlighted thoughts on shareholder returns and the balance sheet. But I wanted to see if you could maybe update us on your goal to reduce your operating costs by $500 million as well as the $1 billion growth in mid-cycle Midstream and Chemicals earnings power.

我想看看能否請你們就2027年策略優先事項提供一些更新。你們提到了股東報酬與資產負債表方面的想法。但我也想請你們更新一下：將營運成本降低5億美元的目標，以及在中周期（mid-cycle）情境下，中游（Midstream）與化學品（Chemicals）獲利能力提升10億美元的目標進展如何？

This is Rich. I'll start with the Refining part of the 2027 goal. And that goal in Refining is to target an annualized $5.50 a barrel operating cost ex turnarounds. And as you can see in the second quarter here, we came in at $5.57, pretty close, pretty striking -- within striking range of the $5.50 number. But the annualized number is really what we're targeting, and that's what we want to -- our goal is to achieve next year.

我是Rich。我先從2027目標中煉油部分開始。煉油端的目標，是將年度化營運成本（不含歲修/大修，ex turnarounds）控制在每桶5.50美元。如你在第二季看到的，我們是5.57美元，已相當接近——幾乎在5.50美元的射程範圍內。但我們鎖定的是年度化數字，這也是我們希望——目標是在明年達成。

So with that, what are we doing to achieve that and hit that annual goal. And this will incorporate the volume impacts associated with turnarounds and all the seasonal changes and still achieve the $5.50 assuming a $3 MMBtu of Henry Hub price.

因此，為了達成並命中這個年度目標，我們正在做什麼？這將納入與歲修相關的產量影響以及所有季節性變化，並且在亨利港（Henry Hub）價格為每MMBtu 3美元的假設下，仍要達成每桶5.50美元。

So the project -- the organization is working on over 200 initiatives, targeting operating expense reduction. And these are really focused in a couple of areas. One is energy efficiency. And I'm often asked, well, give me an example of that. And the two examples that come to mind here that I recently saw were at our Bayway facility. We operate very large boilers there, especially associated with the FCC. And they've come up with a unique process to clean the tubes and make the boiler much more efficient through the run while it's online. And the second one is a heat recovery project, a nice project for Ferndale Refinery.

因此，該專案——組織正在推動超過 200 項倡議，目標是降低營運費用。而這些確實聚焦在幾個領域。其中之一是能源效率。而我常被問到，好吧，給我一個例子。我最近看到、首先想到的兩個例子是在我們的 Bayway 設施。我們在那裡運行非常大型的鍋爐，特別是與 FCC 相關的。他們提出了一個獨特的流程，在鍋爐在線運行期間清洗管束，讓鍋爐在整個運轉週期中更有效率。第二個是熱回收專案，是 Ferndale 煉油廠的一個很不錯的專案。

Each of those two projects reduced operating expense by over $1 million a year independent of each other, right? So these are fantastic projects that the organization has been coming up with and working and executing. We're also trying to simplify our work processes out there and eliminate waste and other things that we got. And one of the key projects there that comes to mind is the acid consumption project at the Wood River refinery. And that, like those previous two I mentioned, also reduces well over $1 million from operating expense. So we have 200 of these projects we're working throughout the system to drive cost out.

這兩個專案各自都能把營運費用每年降低超過 100 萬美元，而且彼此獨立，對吧？所以這些都是組織提出、推動並執行的極佳專案。我們也在嘗試簡化現場的工作流程、消除浪費以及其他我們遇到的問題。其中一個讓我印象深刻的關鍵專案，是 Wood River 煉油廠的酸耗用量專案。而這個專案，和我前面提到的那兩個一樣，也能讓營運費用降低遠超過 100 萬美元。因此，我們在整個系統中推動這 200 個專案，以帶動成本下降。

The other thing I'll mention, and this is, I think, helpful is we're an organization that is full of data. And the AI revolution here has really opened up our ability to analyze this data and look for trends. So we're actively engaged in doing that as well. And that's also bringing a lot of opportunities to light that I don't know that we otherwise would have seen because of the data -- the fog of too much data almost.

我還想提到另一點，我認為這很有幫助：我們是一個充滿數據的組織。而這波 AI 革命確實打開了我們分析這些數據、尋找趨勢的能力。所以我們也正積極投入在這方面。而這也讓許多機會浮現；若不是因為 AI，我不確定我們是否能看見，因為數據——幾乎像是被過多數據的迷霧所遮蔽。

Of course, on the other side of that equation, you got to run well. And having your equipment running reliably and assure it's ready to run, we're keenly focused on that as well. And then Brian's group is working hard to support filling up the downstream units that have available capacity to them and really working towards that, increasing the total process input for the site.

當然，在等式的另一邊，你必須把裝置運轉好。讓設備可靠運行並確保隨時可運轉，我們也高度聚焦在這點上。此外，Brian 的團隊也在努力支援把下游仍有可用產能的單元填滿，並朝這個方向推進，提升該場址的總處理進料量。

So what I see in summary is that $5.50 is well within range and I fully expect us to achieve that goal next year. And those cost improvements that we are driving for our stock owners, these are structural. They're not going to work their way back into the system. There's structural changes that we're doing, and we're not done yet with this.

所以總結來看，我認為 5.50 完全在可達範圍內，我也完全預期我們明年能達成這個目標。而我們為股東推動的這些成本改善，是結構性的。它們不會再回流到系統裡。我們正在做的是結構性變革，而且我們還沒做完。

Arun, this is Don Baldridge. I'll take the $1 billion growth in Midstream and Chemicals that you asked. And really, we split that into two parts, 50-50, if you will. The first is the $500 million growth in Midstream. That's really their $4.5 billion run rate target by the end of '27.

Arun，我是 Don Baldridge。我來回答你問到的中游與化學品 10 億美元成長。基本上，我們把它分成兩部分，各占 50%，如果你願意這麼看。第一部分是中游 5 億美元的成長。這對應到他們在 2027 年底達到 45 億美元年化運行率（run rate）目標。

The two things I'd highlight there is first, the execution on our large expansion projects. And then second is the successful optimization efforts that we're having around the footprint. First, the large expansion projects that we've announced already, like the Iron Mesa gas plant and our Coastal Bend NGL pipeline expansion. They remain on time and on budget and will be meaningful contributors in 2027 and allow us to meaningfully grow our earnings.

我想強調兩點：第一，是我們大型擴建專案的執行。第二，是我們在既有資產版圖（footprint）周邊所做的成功最佳化工作。首先，像我們已經宣布的大型擴建專案，例如 Iron Mesa 天然氣處理廠，以及我們 Coastal Bend NGL 管線擴建。它們仍按時、按預算推進，並將在 2027 年成為重要貢獻者，讓我們的獲利得以顯著成長。

But I'd also highlight the second one, which is just the execution on the smaller optimization opportunities around our footprint where we are continuing to see how we can grow our capacity in a very capital efficient way. You saw that in this quarter with our growth of record NGL fractionation, record NGL exports. Our operations teams continue to find ways to grow the capacity very capital efficiently and the commercial team readily fills it. So that's the strong team execution that's happening around Midstream. That gives me a lot of confidence in not only hitting our 2027 earnings growth target, but also just the growth rate beyond that.

但我也要強調第二點，也就是在我們資產版圖周邊、較小型的最佳化機會上的執行；我們持續在思考如何以非常高的資本效率來提升產能。你在本季已看到：我們的 NGL 分餾量創新高、NGL 出口量也創新高。我們的營運團隊持續找到以極高資本效率擴增產能的方法，而商務團隊也能迅速把這些產能填滿。因此，這就是中游業務正在發生的強大團隊執行力。這讓我不僅對達成 2027 年獲利成長目標很有信心，也對其後的成長率同樣有信心。

Within the Chemicals, that's really our CPChem business. And that's even a simpler story. We've got two large world-scale crackers that will meaningfully come online and contribute in 2027, and that's the predominant growth for that $500 million on the Chemical side.

在化學品方面，主要就是我們的 CPChem 業務。而這個故事更簡單。我們有兩座大型世界級裂解廠將在 2027 年實質投產並做出貢獻，而這將是化學品端那 5 億美元成長的主要來源。

Great. And my follow-up, I was wondering how we should think about, obviously, really good results in Refining. But how does this quarter's Refining, even Midstream strength, how does that influence how you think about the mid-cycle earnings power of each of those segments?

很好。我接著想問的是，顯然煉油業務表現非常好。但本季煉油、甚至中游的強勁表現，會如何影響你們對各分部「中周期」獲利能力（earnings power）的看法？

I would say at a high level that given what's going on in the world, that there's some resilience in Refining. The macro looks strong. Even if peace broke out tomorrow, we saw strengthening fundamentals before the Iran conflict kicked in. And so we think that it will even be stronger coming out of that conflict. And so whatever your view of mid-cycle was, we think it will be stronger going forward, and we think that it will be persistent going forward. So we think it's very constructive and has some legs under Refining.

我會說，從高層次來看，考量到全球正在發生的事情，煉油業務具有一定韌性。總體環境看起來很強。即使明天就實現和平，我們在伊朗衝突爆發之前就已看到基本面在走強。因此我們認為，衝突結束後基本面會更強。所以不論你對中周期的看法原本是什麼，我們認為未來會更強，而且我們也認為這種強勢會持續。因此我們覺得這是非常正面的，對煉油有實質支撐。

Midstream has been very consistent. And I think that, that's the beauty of the Midstream business. Like I said earlier is that it's that solid rock foundation under the rest of our businesses. And the growth there will be our organic growth and delivering on those projects and enhancing that.

中游一直非常穩定。我認為這就是中游業務的美妙之處。就像我先前說的，它是支撐我們其他業務的堅實岩盤基礎。而那裡的成長將來自我們的有機成長、交付這些專案並持續強化。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

Theresa Chen，巴克萊（Barclays）。

I appreciate some of the comments related to long-term structural drivers for the Refining macro. I wanted to ask near term, are we -- as we move through the remainder of summer driving season into the fall, which factors do you view as the most important upside or downside risk to crack spreads over the next quarter? Is it demand elasticity? Is it Chinese exports? And maybe putting a finer point on the capture discussion, what are your expectations at this point for third quarter capture?

我很感謝你們對煉油總體環境長期結構性驅動因素的一些評論。我想問短期來看，當我們走過夏季駕車旺季、進入秋季時，你們認為未來一季裂解價差（crack spreads）最重要的上行或下行風險因素是哪些？是需求彈性嗎？是中國的出口嗎？另外，針對你們提到的 capture 討論再更精準一點，你們目前對第三季 capture 的預期是什麼？

Theresa, it's Brian. Maybe I'll start with just a list of things that give us a lot of confidence, list of tailwinds for kind of higher cracks going into Q3 and carrying on through the rest of next year. Refining fundamentals, as Mark talked about, are very tight and getting tighter with the issues in Russia and the Mid East. We have 7 million barrels a day of refineries down in Asia and the Mid East and another 1.4 million barrels down in Russia. And the refineries, depending on the damage and the ability to get spare parts, are going to take a good long time to get back online.

Theresa，我是 Brian。也許我先從一份清單開始：有哪些事情讓我們很有信心，也就是推動裂解價差走高的順風因素，進入第三季並延續到明年其餘時間。如 Mark 所說，煉油基本面非常緊俏，而且因俄羅斯與中東的問題而更加吃緊。我們在亞洲與中東有 700 萬桶/日的煉廠停工，俄羅斯另外還有 140 萬桶/日停工。而這些煉廠，取決於受損程度以及能否取得備品，將需要相當長的時間才能重新上線。

We have low product inventories in the US and around the world. Chinese exports of products have been low, half of what they have been over the last two years. And the Chinese have shown discipline over the last number of years. We've seen -- we'll see the need to refill SPRs over time, and there will likely be new SPRs that develop to protect against these type of geopolitical problems.

美國以及全球的成品庫存都偏低。中國的成品出口一直偏低，只有過去兩年的一半。而中國在過去幾年展現了自律。我們也看到——隨著時間推移，將需要補充戰略石油儲備（SPR），而且很可能會建立新的 SPR，以防範這類地緣政治問題。

We're also forecasting high turnarounds in '27 and '28 and likely more unplanned turnarounds in the near term as refiners push work out to take advantage of the higher margins. You have the typical inflationary pressures on operating expenses and CapEx. We have high RIN prices. We have elevated our freight rates. And the marginal refining barrels in Europe where structural costs are higher, carbon is higher, electricity is higher, labor is higher, all much higher than the US.

我們也預測在'27與'28年將出現較多的大修（turnaround），且在短期內，隨著煉油商為了利用較高的利潤率而把工作往後延，可能會有更多非計畫性的大修。營運費用與資本支出（CapEx）面臨典型的通膨壓力。我們面臨高RIN價格。我們已提高運費費率。而在歐洲，那些邊際煉油量所在的地區結構性成本更高、碳成本更高、電力更高、勞動力更高——都遠高於美國。

So with the opening of the Strait, we also see crude supply will exceed product supply, and that drives stronger margins, too. And the final point that we've been talking about for a while is net refinery additions are lower over the coming years and importantly, lower-than-expected demand increases. So this really sets us up for stronger margins through Q3 and the rest of perhaps next year.

因此，隨著海峽重新開放，我們也看到原油供應將超過成品供應，這也會推動利潤率走強。最後一點我們已談了一段時間：未來幾年淨煉廠新增產能較低，而且更重要的是，需求增幅也低於預期。因此，這確實讓我們有條件在第三季以及今年剩餘時間、甚至可能延續到明年，維持較強的利潤率。

Super helpful. With one of the large Canadian infrastructure operators proposing a project that would shift incremental WCS volumes from the Mid-Con to the Gulf Coast, potentially tightening heavy crude differentials in the Mid-Con while improving availability in the Gulf Coast, how would you expect that to affect the capture rates and Refining profitability across your system? And more broadly, how do you see WCS egress evolving over time? And what do you view as the most likely pathways for incremental barrels to reach market?

非常有幫助。若加拿大某大型基礎設施營運商提出一個專案，將新增的WCS增量從美國中部（Mid-Con）轉移至墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast），可能使Mid-Con的重質原油價差收斂、同時改善墨西哥灣沿岸的供應可得性，您預期這會如何影響你們整個系統的捕捉率（capture rates）與煉油獲利能力？更廣泛地說，你們如何看待WCS外運（egress）隨時間的演變？你們認為增量桶數最可能透過哪些路徑進入市場？

Well, our general view on WCS is that differentials are going to wider structurally over time, driven primarily by growing heavy crude supply out of Canada and Venezuela. Canadian production, which has been offline from weather and turnarounds was back online mostly by the end of last month, and we're heading into a diluent blending season. Also, Venezuelan imports into the US are already up 300% since January, which should add downward pressure on heavy crude pricing over time.

嗯，我們對WCS的一般看法是：價差在結構上會隨時間走寬，主要由加拿大與委內瑞拉重質原油供應成長所驅動。加拿大產量先前因天候與大修而停產的部分，大多在上月底前已恢復上線，而我們也正進入稀釋劑調和季。此外，自1月以來，委內瑞拉對美國的進口已增加300%，這應會隨時間對重質原油價格形成下行壓力。

And then we expect the strong pull of US barrels and higher freight rates and lightering costs to contribute to wider WTI/WCS differential as the inland heavy crude lags the export-driven strength of WTI and competes with Venezuelan barrels. And I think once there's clarity on the movements from the Strait, we'll see increased supply of barrels moving into the market. Those will be primarily medium sours, but they'll also support wider heavy differentials. And just as a reminder to all of you on the phone, every dollar the WTI/WCS spread widens is an incremental $140 million impact to our annual EBITDA.

接著，我們預期美國原油的強勁拉動、更高的運費與過駁（lightering）成本，將促使WTI/WCS價差走寬，因為內陸重質原油落後於由出口帶動的WTI強勢，並與委內瑞拉桶數競爭。而我認為，一旦海峽的運輸動向更明朗，我們將看到更多桶數供應進入市場。那些主要會是中質含硫原油（medium sours），但也會支撐重質價差走寬。也提醒各位電話上的朋友：WTI/WCS價差每擴大1美元，對我們年度EBITDA的增量影響約為1.4億美元。

Theresa, this is Kevin. In your question, you had asked about capture in the third quarter, and Brian went through a lot of factors that we see in terms of how this market is going to play out. But just specifically, as we think about capture rates, we've historically guided to about 95%, and we don't see any reason why that would be any different this year in terms of where we are -- in terms of what we see currently with regard to third quarter.

Theresa，我是Kevin。在你的問題中，你問到第三季的捕捉率（capture），Brian已談到我們看到市場走勢的許多因素。但就捕捉率本身而言，我們過去的指引大約是95%，而我們看不出今年有任何理由會不同——就我們目前的狀況、以及目前對第三季的觀察而言。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta，高盛。

Just wanted your perspective first on Renewable diesel. Even if I was to normalize for margins closer to that $1.50 mid-cycle, you'd probably be above the $700 million that you guided to a while ago. And so just love your perspective on that business? And is there a new run rate of profitability at this level of utilization? And any perspectives on how we should be thinking about the modeling of it going forward?

我想先請教你們對再生柴油（Renewable diesel）的看法。即使我把利潤率常態化到接近每加侖1.50美元的中周期水準，你們的表現可能仍會高於你們先前指引的7億美元。因此很想聽聽你們對這項業務的觀點？在目前這樣的稼動率水準下，是否存在新的獲利常態（run rate）？以及對於我們未來建模該如何思考，有沒有任何看法？

Yeah, Neil, great question. I think that, first, it starts with the existential crisis that asset had a year ago when there was uncertainty around what the RVO would be, what any of the incentives to run that place would be. And the team there took it quite seriously. They readjusted their logistics opportunities. They cut costs, dramatically streamlined and they are operating extraordinarily well.

是的，Neil，這個問題很好。我認為首先要從那項資產在一年前面臨的生存危機談起，當時對RVO會是什麼、以及是否有任何誘因去運轉那座廠都存在不確定性。那裡的團隊非常認真看待。他們重新調整了物流上的機會。他們削減成本、大幅精簡流程，而且營運表現非常出色。

So that really sets the base for what is possible. And Brian can talk about the fundamentals going forward. But when you look at the distillate macro, just that in its own right, provides another good, solid layer underlying the value of that asset.

因此，這確實奠定了可達成表現的基礎。Brian可以談談未來的基本面。但當你看蒸餾油品（distillate）的總體環境時，光是這一點本身，就為該資產的價值提供了另一層良好且穩固的支撐。

So Brian, you can talk about the other.

所以Brian，你可以談談其他部分。

Yeah. I certainly agree with Mark. We had strong earnings in Q2, driven by credits and strong diesel margins, largely a function of the Iran war. Renewable diesel prices in RINs roughly doubled versus 2025 due to the Iranian situation.

好的。我完全同意Mark。我們第二季獲利強勁，主要由抵免（credits）與強勁的柴油利潤率所帶動，而這在很大程度上是伊朗戰爭的結果。由於伊朗情勢，再生柴油的RIN價格相較2025年大約翻倍。

RINs remain an important driver to the segment's profitability. And there's ongoing regulatory policy risk, including the concern that foreign feedstock RIN generation will be cut in half after the end of next year. We also had a one-time help in Q2 of $100 million, primarily due to tariff refunds. As Mark mentioned, Rodeo ran above nameplate capacity with record utilization of 106%.

RIN仍是該部門獲利能力的重要驅動因素。同時也存在持續的監管政策風險，包括外國原料的RIN產生量在明年年底之後可能被砍半的疑慮。我們在第二季也有一次性的助益1億美元，主要來自關稅退稅。如Mark所提，Rodeo的運轉高於名目產能，創下106%的歷史最高稼動率。

And then our Renewables segment isn't just Rodeo. And outside of the Rodeo complex and within the segment, we had good performance from our UK and our Asian businesses in the quarter. And in the segment also, we had mark-to-market pretax gain of $47 million carried over from Q1. So we continue to engage with state and federal administrations to ensure the long-term viability of that facility.

另外，我們的再生能源（Renewables）部門不只有Rodeo。在Rodeo園區之外、且仍在該部門內，我們英國與亞洲業務在本季也有良好表現。此外，該部門還有一筆從第一季延續的按市價評估（mark-to-market）稅前收益4,700萬美元。因此，我們持續與州與聯邦政府部門溝通，以確保該設施的長期可行性。

And just one point of clarity for modelers. We've updated our Renewable diesel indicator beginning this month to reflect the new 2026 45Z guidelines released in June to include $0.40 per gallon of PTC benefit in the indicator.

另外給建模者一點釐清。我們自本月起更新再生柴油指標（indicator），以反映6月發布的新版2026年45Z指引，並在指標中納入每加侖0.40美元的PTC效益。

That's great. So from one hard market to another, I just wanted your perspective on China. It is probably something that we have really tough time getting visibility into as an investment community. And we know runs are down a lot from the beginning of the year in China, and there's some talk of the quotas growing back. And so just your perspective on that in the context of your bullish refining view. Does this represent a risk?

很好。那麼從一個緊俏市場談到另一個，我想請教你們對中國的看法。對投資社群而言，這可能是我們很難取得能見度的部分。我們知道中國的開工量（runs）相較年初大幅下降，也有一些說法認為配額可能會回升。因此在你們看多煉油的觀點下，想聽聽你們對此的看法。這是否構成風險？

Yeah. I think as you said, it is tough to get information about China. We have seen their refineries about 2.5 million barrels a day of refinery runs offline. They're buying about 4 million barrels of crude -- less crude than they had been 12 million barrels of imported crude to about 8 million barrels. Their exported products are now about 400,000 barrels a day from 800,000 barrels a day.

是的。我想如你所說，中國的資訊確實很難取得。我們看到他們的煉廠大約有250萬桶/日的加工量處於停工狀態。他們購買的原油也少了約400萬桶——進口原油從約1,200萬桶降到約800萬桶。他們的成品出口目前約40萬桶/日，先前是80萬桶/日。

So it is possible that they could increase the exports of products. They haven't been doing that in a number of years past. They've been pretty disciplined, but it's hard to tell what they'll do going forward. So I think our guess will be, just like yours, do they want to help manage the worldwide product shortage or not.

所以他們確實有可能提高成品出口。過去幾年他們並沒有這麼做。他們一直相當自律，但很難判斷他們未來會怎麼做。因此我想我們的猜測會跟你們一樣：他們是否想要協助管理全球成品短缺，還是不想。

And I would add to that, you have to recall that China is coming off of a materially lower crude pricing basis than the rest of the world because they were buying huge quantities of deeply discounted Venezuelan crude, Iranian crude, Russian crude, anything they could get their hands on. That's gone now.

我再補充一點：你必須記得，中國先前的原油採購成本基礎明顯低於世界其他地區，因為他們大量購買深度折價的委內瑞拉原油、伊朗原油、俄羅斯原油——任何他們能拿到的。現在這種情況已經不存在了。

So that changes their perspective on their ability to supply products to the rest of the world, both, I think, on a refining basis as well as petrochemicals. And our petrochemical folks are seeing them already respond to higher cost basis in petrochemicals and raising the prices of polyethylene, for instance. So they are very price sensitive, and they will respond to price signals. And I think that their price basis is much, much higher in crude than the impact the rest of the world has seen post war.

因此，這改變了他們對自身向世界其他地區供應產品能力的看法——我認為不論是在煉製端，還是在石化端皆然。而我們的石化團隊已經看到他們因石化成本基礎上升而做出反應，例如上調聚乙烯的價格。所以他們對價格非常敏感，會對價格訊號做出回應。而且我認為，他們在原油上的價格基礎遠遠高於戰後世界其他地區所看到的影響。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

I was hoping you could talk about the appeal and refining environment in the Atlantic Basin. If I look at your July indicators, Atlantic Basin was up the most quarter-over-quarter. And of course, you have more exposure than a lot of your peers to the region. Is Russian downtime the main drivers here? Any other factors that you'd call out? And is this something that you'll be able to capture in Q3?

我想請你談談大西洋盆地的吸引力與煉油環境。如果我看你們7月的指標，大西洋盆地的季比增幅最大。當然，相較於許多同業，你們在該區域的曝險更高。俄羅斯的停工是主要驅動因素嗎？還有其他你會特別點出的因素嗎？而這是否是你們在第三季能夠掌握到的？

Yeah. I'll start with the answer to that, Matt, and then turn it over to Brian. This is Rich here. When we looked at the Atlantic Basin, Q1 capture rate was pretty high at 182%. And then Q2 was on the other end of that spectrum at 79%.

是的。Matt，我先回答這個問題，然後再交給Brian。我是Rich。我們看大西洋盆地時，第一季的捕捉率相當高，達182%。而第二季則在光譜的另一端，為79%。

I really think the way you have to look at this with all the noise in the system over those two quarters is you got to look at it on a first half basis. And the first half capture rate was just well over -- not well over, but 112% on average. So it's a decent capture rate. And so I think the assets are performing well. And that also includes the effects of the Humber turnaround during that timeframe. And when we look at that first half annual average of 112%, we did go back and look at it from '23 to 2025, and we averaged about 96% in this.

我認為，在這兩個季度系統雜訊很多的情況下，你必須用上半年的角度來看。上半年捕捉率平均略高於——不是「遠高於」，而是平均112%。所以這是個不錯的捕捉率。因此我認為資產表現良好。而這也包含了該期間Humber大修的影響。當我們看上半年112%的年化平均時，我們也回頭看了2023到2025年，在這方面平均大約是96%。

So I would say the assets are running well. They've been operating reliably. And it's been pretty impressive to increase that capture rate with the strong backwardation in the marketplace. And maybe that's a good bridge over to you, Brian, on the market.

所以我會說資產運轉得很好。它們一直穩定可靠地運行。而在市場強烈逆價差（backwardation）的情況下，還能提高捕捉率，表現相當令人印象深刻。也許這正好銜接到你那邊，Brian，談談市場面。

Yes. I think one of the things I'd say in Q3 is that backwardation has started to come off some. And certainly, from Q2, the historic crude differentials we saw in Q2 have come up as well. A lot of the crude that we buy for Bayway is Brent-based, so that will help in Q3. And as I mentioned, we were also moving barrels through the Jones Act of crude -- US crude around to Bayway, too, and that helps also. So we'll continue to do that as well.

是的。我認為第三季可以說的一點是，逆價差已開始有所收斂。而且，相較於第二季，我們在第二季看到的歷史性原油價差也已回升。我們為Bayway採購的許多原油是以布蘭特（Brent）為基準，因此這在第三季會有幫助。另外如我提到的，我們也透過《瓊斯法案》（Jones Act）把美國原油運到Bayway，這也有幫助。所以我們也會持續這麼做。

Sounds good. And then the $450 million mark-to-market impact in Q2, I think you might have said that Renewable Fuels was $47 million boost. Do you have the same breakout for Refining and M&S?

了解。另外，第二季4.5億美元的按市價計量（mark-to-market）影響，我想你可能提到可再生燃料帶來4,700萬美元的提振。煉油與M&S也有同樣的拆分嗎？

Yeah. Matt, it's Kevin. So that $450 million, I'll give you the breakdown by segment. So Refining was about $240 million of that. And just -- I think as everyone knows, but just to emphasize, that is built into the indicator and so not a variance from a capture standpoint. So $240 million Refining, Marketing & Specialties is about $160 million. And then Renewables is just shy of $50 million. And so you put those together, you get that $450 million total.

有的。Matt，我是Kevin。這4.5億美元我按事業部門拆給你。其中煉油約2.4億美元。而且——我想大家都知道，但再強調一次——這已經反映在指標裡，因此從捕捉率角度看不算差異。煉油2.4億美元，行銷與特種產品（Marketing & Specialties）約1.6億美元。可再生能源接近5,000萬美元但略低一些。把這些加總起來，就是4.5億美元。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

Joe Laetsch，摩根士丹利。

So I wanted to follow up on the Chemical side. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in the market currently? It looked like margins have come in a bit from the peak earlier this year. Can you just talk to how you're thinking about the macro set up? And then it also looked like utilization rates during Q2 came in above guidance as well.

我想追問化學品業務。你能談談目前市場上你們看到的情況嗎？看起來利差較今年稍早的高點回落了一些。你能談談你們如何看待總體環境的配置嗎？另外看起來第二季的產能利用率也高於指引。

Yeah, certainly, Chemicals saw a surge during the height of the crisis around the Straits of Hormuz. And they've come back down a bit with peace breaking out and that being factored in a bit. There's still considerable oversupply in the market that will come back into play once things normalize around the Straits.

是的，當然。化學品在荷姆茲海峽危機最嚴峻的時候出現了一波飆升。隨著和平局勢出現、且市場已部分消化這點，它們又回落了一些。市場仍存在相當程度的供給過剩，一旦海峽周邊情勢正常化，這將再度發揮作用。

We think that will take some time. But even when that happens, we see a higher floor kicking in because, as I mentioned earlier, China has lost its access to deeply discounted crude, so they're going to have to reset where they are from that perspective. And we see that impact of about $0.07 per pound over where we saw the kind of the bottom of the cycle in 2025 at about $0.07 per pound.

我們認為這需要一些時間。但即便如此，我們也看到一個更高的底部將開始形成，因為如我先前提到的，中國已失去取得深度折價原油的管道，因此他們必須從這個角度重新校準其定位。我們估計其影響約為每磅0.07美元，相較於我們在2025年週期底部所看到的大約每磅0.07美元的水準。

Put that in perspective, at the bottom of the cycle, our portion of CPChem's EBITDA was about $845 million at that $0.07 per pound. So they still have relatively robust performance. And so you'll see considerable upside even just resetting at that higher floor going forward. And so we see things relatively more stable, though they'll be below mid-cycle. They shot above mid-cycle temporarily. They'll be coming back down to something around $0.14, $0.15 a pound.

把它放在脈絡中看，在週期底部、每磅0.07美元時，我們分攤到CPChem的EBITDA約為8.45億美元。所以他們仍有相對穩健的表現。因此，即便只是把底部重設到更高的地板價，往後也會看到相當可觀的上行空間。所以我們認為情況相對更穩定，儘管仍會低於中週期水準。它們曾短暫高於中週期。接下來會回落到大約每磅0.14、0.15美元左右。

Mark, that's helpful. And then, I wanted to ask just on M&S. So this is one of the segments that came in a bit above our expectations during the quarter. I think a falling crude environment and the strong summer driving season probably helped the volumes are up a little bit year-over-year. Could you just unpack some of the drivers in 2Q and talk about the outlook for the back half of the year as well?

Mark，這很有幫助。接著我想問M&S。這是本季表現略高於我們預期的事業部之一。我想原油下跌的環境與強勁的夏季行車旺季可能有助益，銷量年比也小幅上升。你能否拆解一下第二季的一些驅動因素，並談談下半年展望？

Yeah. This is Brian. I'll give you kind of a chat on M&S. One of the things that helped us was just margins in the business were very, very strong. I think M&S is going to be also a function of spot prices.

好的。我是Brian。我來簡單聊一下M&S。幫助我們的一點是，該業務的利差非常、非常強勁。我認為M&S也會受到現貨價格的影響。

Whether spot prices are moving up or moving down, that also affects our business. We had some favorable regulatory credits in the quarter. And also our lubricants business, which we don't talk about all that much, benefited from stronger base oil spreads with roughly about a third of the global Group 3 base oil production offline.

不論現貨價格上漲或下跌，都會影響我們的業務。本季我們有一些有利的法規性抵減額度（regulatory credits）。另外，我們不太常談到的潤滑油業務，也受惠於基礎油價差走強，原因是全球約三分之一的第三類（Group 3）基礎油產能停線。

So I just think going forward, the tailwinds are going to include a favorable market, particularly with the ongoing Iranian war and the RIN prices. We also see some regulatory upside in Q3 as well. Tailwinds, again, are the rising spot prices.

所以我認為往後的順風因素將包括有利的市場環境，特別是伊朗戰爭持續以及RIN價格。我們也看到第三季有一些法規面的上行空間。順風因素同樣還包括現貨價格走升。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

The NGL segment within Midstream has been pretty volatile over the past few quarters. So just wanted to level set where we are right now if 2Q kind of represented a normalized environment for that segment just given the moving parts with commodities moving higher, projects coming online? Any color would be helpful.

中游（Midstream）中的NGL板塊在過去幾個季度波動相當大。所以我想確認一下我們目前所處的位置：考量到商品價格走高、專案投產等多項變動因素，第二季是否可視為該板塊的常態化環境？任何補充說明都會很有幫助。

This is Don. Yeah, I think we're still hovering around in the Midstream segment around that $1 billion a quarter mark with some ups and downs depending on commodity prices and depending on just some volume variances. But largely, we're solid in that run rate. Certainly, first quarter, we were impacted from Winter Storm Fern that impacted volumes.

我是 Don。是的，我認為我們在中游（Midstream）業務板塊仍大致徘徊在每季約 10 億美元的水準，會因商品價格以及一些量的波動而有起伏。但整體而言，我們的運行水準很穩健。當然，第一季我們受到冬季風暴 Fern 的影響，導致處理量下滑。

We also saw impacts of shut-ins when we had really low negative prices in the Permian. That is largely a pass-through. We've got new pipelines coming -- that have come online. We're seeing positive prices in Waha. As a point of reference, our June Permian volumes on our gathering and processing were a record high. I think that's a testament to producers turning on more volumes and having comfort of continuing to drill and grow now that there's good egress out of Waha.

當二疊紀（Permian）出現非常低、甚至為負的價格時，我們也看到停產（shut-ins）帶來的影響。那在很大程度上是轉嫁（pass-through）。我們有新的管線即將投運——也已經有部分上線。我們看到 Waha 的價格轉為正值。作為參考，我們 6 月在二疊紀的集輸與處理（gathering and processing）量創下歷史新高。我認為這證明了生產商正在開啟更多產量，並且在 Waha 有良好外運通道（egress）之後，對持續鑽探與擴產更有信心。

So we're on track to hit that $4.5 billion by 2027. What gives me confidence of that is we've got these large capacity projects that are going to come online in 2027. And we already have a lot of that volume that we're processing with third parties or moving on third-party pipelines. So when Iron Mesa turns on, I expect us to be able to readily fill that capacity within the first part of 2027. And then those NGLs would obviously flow into our Coastal Bend pipeline expansion that comes online end of this year and fills that capacity up.

因此，我們正按計畫在 2027 年達到 45 億美元。讓我有信心的是，我們有這些大容量專案將在 2027 年上線。而且我們已經有相當一部分的量是透過第三方在處理，或在第三方管線上運輸。所以當 Iron Mesa 啟用時，我預期我們能在 2027 年上半年就迅速把那個產能填滿。接著，這些 NGL（天然氣液）顯然會流入我們的 Coastal Bend 管線擴建專案；該專案將在今年底上線並把那部分產能填滿。

So on track with hitting the targets and continue to see the growth trajectory from where we are today.

所以我們正按計畫達成目標，並持續看到從目前位置延伸出的成長軌跡。

Great. My follow-up is just on the Marketing segment. And I think in the past when Rhine River levels have been low, the international Marketing business has done extremely well. There have been some changes in the portfolio. So wondering if you still retain that upside exposure given Rhine River levels are currently low.

很好。我的追問是關於行銷（Marketing）板塊。我記得過去萊茵河水位偏低時，國際行銷業務表現非常好。投資組合有一些變化。因此想請教，在目前萊茵河水位仍偏低的情況下，你們是否仍保有那種上行曝險（upside exposure）？

Because Germany is no longer short diesel, the Rhine impact is much smaller going forward. So you won't see that like we've seen in the past.

由於德國不再缺柴油，未來萊茵河的影響會小得多。所以你不會再看到像過去那樣的情況。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO。

Great. I was hoping you could talk about the Midstream portfolio and just current thoughts around optimizing here, whether it's divesting non-core assets or bolt-ons across core areas. And generally, do you see value in Midstream M&A? Or do you feel like with the organic projects you have like Zeus, Coastal Bend frac, which were announced intra-quarter plus Western Gateway are sufficient enough to drive competitive EBITDA growth beyond the $4.5 billion annualized run rate by year end '27?

很好。我希望你能談談中游投資組合，以及目前對於在此進行最佳化的想法——不論是處分非核心資產，或是在核心領域做補強式併購（bolt-ons）。整體而言，你們是否在中游 M&A 中看到價值？或者你們認為，憑藉像 Zeus、Coastal Bend frac（壓裂砂/壓裂相關）這些在季內宣布的有機專案，再加上 Western Gateway，就足以在 2027 年底前把年化 EBITDA 從 45 億美元的運行水準推升到更具競爭力的成長？

Thanks, Phillip. This is Don. And we are excited about the organic growth projects. We do think they are the best returns. The opportunity set that we have around the portfolio is dominated by the organic growth. We're seeing the customer response from a producer standpoint with volumes that are filling our system and enabling us to add capacity and grow that business.

謝謝你，Phillip。我是 Don。我們對這些有機成長專案感到很振奮。我們確實認為它們帶來最佳報酬。就投資組合而言，我們的機會集合主要由有機成長所主導。從生產商客戶的回饋來看，進入我們系統的量正在填滿我們的網路，讓我們得以增加產能並擴大這項業務。

So it's a high bar when we think about M&A or bolt-ons. They have to be something that is highly strategic. It has to be of a bolt-on size that would be something that we could readily scale. Pinnacle was a great example. EPIC was a great example, where we could do something that was -- make our system more competitive as well as be able to scale it up quickly. But right now, we -- our focus is executing on the organic growth plan that we have in front of us. That's where we think the best opportunities are.

因此，當我們考慮 M&A 或補強式併購時，門檻很高。它們必須是高度策略性的。規模也必須是我們能夠迅速擴張（scale）的補強型大小。Pinnacle 是很好的例子。EPIC 也是很好的例子，我們能做一些——讓我們的系統更具競爭力，同時也能快速擴大規模的事情。但目前我們——重點是執行眼前的有機成長計畫。我們認為最佳機會就在那裡。

In terms of the overall portfolio, we've always said that, hey, there's certainly some nonoperated Midstream assets that aren't necessarily core, but they're nice assets. If they're worth more to others than to us, we'd certainly consider that. But we don't have any predetermined divestiture targets, but we're always looking at ways to make the portfolio more competitive, more durable and drive the earnings profile that we like in Midstream.

就整體投資組合而言，我們一直說，確實有一些非營運（nonoperated）的中游資產不一定屬於核心，但它們是很不錯的資產。如果它們對其他人的價值高於對我們的價值，我們當然會考慮。但我們沒有任何預先設定的處分目標；不過我們一直在尋找讓投資組合更具競爭力、更耐久，並推動我們在中游所偏好的獲利型態的方法。

Great. And then, Mark, you sounded excited about this in the script. So just wondering different ways Phillips is implementing new technologies or AI across the Refining business just as it relates to optimizing commercial operations, executing or predicting turnarounds or lowering operating costs. And if it is more broad-based across the other businesses, I'd also love to hear about that also.

很好。接著，Mark，你在講稿裡聽起來對這件事很興奮。所以想請教 Phillips 在煉油（Refining）業務中，如何以不同方式導入新技術或 AI——特別是與最佳化商業營運、執行或預測大修（turnarounds）、或降低營運成本相關。如果也更廣泛地應用在其他業務，我也很想聽聽。

Yeah, Phillip, it is broad-based. We've implemented an AI program that really is normalizing the use of AI inside the company. We have people focused on use cases and then extrapolating those use cases across the organization. I think it's pretty exciting to see what's going on out in the front lines with the engineers out of the front lines using AI to -- as Rich alluded to it, capturing the data and extracting the data and getting solutions out deployed faster than we've ever thought about being able to do before.

是的，Phillip，這是廣泛性的。我們已導入一個 AI 計畫，真正是在公司內部把 AI 的使用常態化。我們有人專注於使用情境（use cases），然後把這些使用情境推廣到整個組織。看到第一線的工程師在第一線使用 AI——如 Rich 所提到的，擷取資料、萃取資料，並把解決方案部署得比我們過去想像的更快，我覺得非常令人振奮。

So it enhances the performance of the assets in almost real time. And to see their intellectual capacity just augmented by their use of AI to drive performance that they would normally drive over time, but it may take months or years to get to the same place they're getting to in days and weeks. And that is being spread across every part of the organization.

因此，它幾乎能以接近即時的方式提升資產表現。而看到他們的智力能力透過使用 AI 被放大，用來推動原本也能隨時間達成的績效，但可能需要數月或數年才能到達同樣的水準；現在他們在幾天或幾週內就能做到。而這正在擴散到組織的每一個部分。

And we've been at it for a long time with machine learning to enhance maintenance, to enhance our ability to shorten our turnarounds and increase the duration between turnarounds, but we're just building on that with really this human-centered approach to AI deployment.

此外，我們長期以來一直運用機器學習來提升維護效能、提升我們縮短大修工期的能力，並拉長兩次大修之間的間隔；而現在我們是在此基礎上，透過這種以人為中心（human-centered）的 AI 部署方式持續加碼。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Sean Maher for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話會議交回 Sean Maher 作結語。

Thank you for your interest in Phillips 66. If you have any questions or feedback after today's call, please reach out to Kirk or myself. Thank you. Have a great day.

感謝各位對 Phillips 66 的關注。如果在今天的電話會議後你有任何問題或回饋，請聯絡 Kirk 或我本人。謝謝。祝各位有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。