菲利普斯66 (PSX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the fourth quarter 20204 Phillips 66 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 20204 Phillips 66 第四季財報電話會議。

My name is Emily, and I will be your operator for today's call.

我叫艾米麗，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Please note that this conference is being recorded.

請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Jeffrey Dietert.

現在我將電話轉給 Jeffrey Dietert。

Jeff, you may begin.

傑夫，你可以開始了。

Welcome to Phillips 66 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Phillips 66 財報電話會議。

Participants on today's call will include Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO; Kevin Mitchell, CFO; Don Baldridge, Midstream and Chemicals; Rich Harbison, Refining and Brian Mandell, Marketing and Commercial.

今天電話會議的參與者包括董事長兼執行長馬克·拉希爾 (Mark Lashier)；凱文‧米切爾（Kevin Mitchell），財務長；唐·鮑德里奇（Don Baldridge），中游和化學品公司； Rich Harbison 負責煉油業務，Brian Mandell 負責行銷和商業業務。

Today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section on the Phillips 66 website, along with supplemental financial and operating information.

今天的簡報可以在 Phillips 66 網站的投資者關係部分找到，同時還有補充的財務和營運資訊。

Slide 2 contains our Safe Harbor statement.

投影片 2 包含我們的安全港聲明。

We will be making forward-looking statements during today's call.

我們將在今天的電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from today's comments.

實際結果可能與今天的評論有重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ, they are included here as well as in our SEC filings.

可能導致實際結果不同的因素均包含在此以及我們的 SEC 文件中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Our results reflect strong operating performance in a challenging margin environment.

我們的業績反映出在充滿挑戰的利潤環境下強勁的經營表現。

The strength and stability of our Midstream results provided a resilient platform, demonstrating the advantages of the breadth of our integrated portfolio.

我們中游業務表現的強勁和穩定提供了一個有彈性的平台，展示了我們綜合投資組合廣度的優勢。

In the fourth quarter, we achieved our shareholder distribution target with $13.6 billion distributed through share repurchases and dividends since July 2022.

第四季度，我們自 2022 年 7 月以來透過股票回購和股利分配了 136 億美元，實現了股東分配目標。

In Refining, we set goals to improve performance, lower cost and capture more of the Market.

在煉油方面，我們設定的目標是提高性能、降低成本和佔領更多的市場。

This year was our second consecutive year of above industry average crude utilization.

今年是我們連續第二年原油利用率高於產業平均。

We also set record clean product yields both this quarter and for the full year, while reducing our costs by $1 per barrel.

我們還在本季和全年創下了清潔產品產量的新紀錄，同時將成本降低了每桶 1 美元。

These results are a testament to the hard work, commitment and dedication to excellence by the people in [Rich's] organization.

這些結果證明了 [Rich] 組織員工的辛勤工作、承諾和對卓越的奉獻精神。

We exceeded our $400 million synergy target on the DCP Midstream acquisition by capturing $500 million of run rate synergies.

我們透過實現 5 億美元的運行率綜效，超越了 DCP Midstream 收購中 4 億美元的綜效目標。

In total for DCP transaction has increased Midstream's mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion.

總體而言，DCP 交易使得 Midstream 的中期調整後 EBITDA 增加了 15 億美元。

We set an ambitious goal of $1.4 billion in run rate business transformation savings.

我們設定了一個雄心勃勃的目標，透過業務轉型節省 14 億美元。

We positioned the company for success through these cost reductions and exceeded our goal, achieving $1.5 billion of savings.

我們透過這些成本削減為公司的成功奠定了基礎，並且超額完成了我們的目標，實現了 15 億美元的節省。

As part of the enhanced priorities in 2023, we committed to at least $3 billion of non-core asset dispositions.

作為 2023 年重點任務的一部分，我們承諾處置至少 30 億美元的非核心資產。

We have high graded the portfolio and are currently at $3.5 billion of announced asset divestitures.

我們對投資組合給予了高度評價，目前已宣布的資產剝離金額為 35 億美元。

Although our net debt to capital ratio ended higher than our target level, we continue to have a strong balance sheet, and we are making debt reduction a key component of our new commitments.

儘管我們的淨債務資本比率高於我們的目標水平，但我們仍然擁有強勁的資產負債表，並且我們正在將減債作為我們新承諾的關鍵組成部分。

We've completed the strategic priorities that we laid out in 2022, enhanced in 2023 and committed to achieving by the end of 2024.

我們已經完成了 2022 年制定、2023 年加強並承諾在 2024 年底前實現的策略重點。

I am proud of the work our employees have done to accomplish these important priorities and deliver on our commitments to shareholders while maintaining industry leading safety performance.

我為我們的員工為完成這些重要優先事項和履行對股東的承諾以及保持行業領先安全績效所做的工作感到自豪。

Slide 4 shows the progress of the asset disposition program.

投影片 4 展示了資產處置計畫的進度。

In January 2025, we received $2.1 billion of cash proceeds for the Coop and Gulf Coast Express dispositions.

2025 年 1 月，我們因 Coop 和 Gulf Coast Express 的處置獲得了 21 億美元的現金收益。

This brings the cash proceeds to $3.5 billion which we're using to advance our new strategic priorities.

這使現金收益達到 35 億美元，我們將利用這筆錢來推進我們的新戰略重點。

We continue to evaluate our assets as part of our ongoing portfolio optimization.

作為我們持續投資組合優化的一部分，我們將繼續評估我們的資產。

Slide 5 shows the growth of our Midstream business including the recent announcement of the Epic NGL transaction.

幻燈片 5 展示了我們的中游業務的成長，包括最近宣布的 Epic NGL 交易。

We've advanced our well head to Market strategy through organic projects and strategic transactions that provided significant synergies and strong returns.

我們透過有機專案和策略交易推進了我們的市場策略，這些專案和交易提供了顯著的協同效應和強勁的回報。

This nearly doubles EBITDA between 2021 and the anticipated transaction close later this year.

這使得 2021 年至今年稍後預計完成的交易之間的 EBITDA 幾乎翻了一番。

Similar to the Pinnacle acquisition last year, we saw an opportunity to acquire high quality assets which are complementary to our existing footprint and provide a platform for further growth opportunities at attractive returns.

與去年收購 Pinnacle 類似，我們看到了收購優質資產的機會，這些資產可以補充我們現有的業務，並為進一步的成長機會和豐厚的回報提供平台。

The transaction furthers our vision of being the leading integrated downstream energy provider and upon closing increases Midstream's midcycle adjusted EBITA to $4 billion.

這項交易進一步推進了我們成為領先的綜合下游能源供應商的願景，交易完成後，Midstream 的中期調整後 EBITA 將增加至 40 億美元。

We'll continue to capitalize on our growth platform to generate strong returns and significant free cash flow in 2025 and beyond.

我們將繼續利用我們的成長平台，在 2025 年及以後創造強勁的回報和顯著的自由現金流。

Slide 6 outlines our new strategic priorities for 2025 through 2027.

第 6 張投影片概述了我們 2025 年至 2027 年的新策略重點。

Supported by our world class operations, we are committed to returning over 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders.

在我們世界級的營運支援下，我們致力於向股東返還50%以上的營運現金流。

We've set challenging yet achievable operational targets for our refining and Midstream businesses.

我們為煉油和中游業務設定了具有挑戰性但可實現的營運目標。

We have developed a culture of continuous improvement in refining and are targeting $5.50 per barrel adjusted controllable cost excluding turnarounds over the next two years.

我們已經形成了持續改進煉油流程的文化，目標是在未來兩年內將可控成本（不包括檢修成本）調整為每桶 5.50 美元。

We will grow Midstream and Chemicals mid cycle adjusted EBITDA by an additional $1 billion in total by 2027.

到 2027 年，我們將使中游和化學業務的中期調整後 EBITDA 總計額外增加 10 億美元。

In Midstream, we have plans in place to continue to expand our well head to Market strategy with high return opportunities.

在中游，我們已製定計劃，繼續擴大我們的油井口至市場策略，以獲得高回報機會。

In Chemicals, the mega projects in the US Gulf Coast and Qatar are expected to start up in late 2026.

在化學領域，美國墨西哥灣沿岸和卡達的大型計畫預計將於 2026 年底啟動。

These milestones are expected to bring our non-refining mid cycle EBITDA to $10 billion by 2027 which we expect will represent two-thirds of our total company EBITDA.

這些里程碑預計將使我們的非煉油中期 EBITDA 到 2027 年達到 100 億美元，我們預計這將占我們公司總 EBITDA 的三分之二。

We also plan to reduce total debt to $17 billion as early as the end of this year depending on the margin environment and the timing of planned dispositions.

我們還計劃最早在今年年底將總債務減少至 170 億美元，具體取決於利潤環境和計劃處置的時間。

We will continue to increase shareholder value through strong operating performance and disciplined capital allocation as we deliver on our new strategic priorities.

在實現新的策略重點的同時，我們將繼續透過強勁的營運績效和嚴格的資本配置來提高股東價值。

Now over to Kevin to cover our quarterly results.

現在請 Kevin 來介紹我們的季度業績。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Reported earnings were $8 million or $0.01 per share.

報告收益為 800 萬美元，即每股 0.01 美元。

The adjusted loss was $61 million or $0.15 per share.

調整後虧損為 6,100 萬美元，即每股 0.15 美元。

Both the reported earnings and adjusted loss include the $230 million pre-tax impact of accelerated depreciation due to our plan to cease operations at the Los Angeles refinery at the end of 2025.

由於我們計劃在 2025 年底停止洛杉磯煉油廠的運營，報告的收益和調整後的虧損均包括 2.3 億美元的加速折舊稅前影響。

This reduced earnings per share by $0.43. We generated operating cash flow of $1.2 billion and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders including $647 million of share repurchases.

這使得每股收益減少 0.43 美元。我們產生了 12 億美元的營運現金流，並向股東返還了 11 億美元，其中包括 6.47 億美元的股票回購。

I will now move to slide 8 to cover the segment results.

我現在將轉到投影片 8 來介紹分部結果。

Total company adjusted earnings decreased $920 million compared with the prior quarter.

公司調整後總利潤較上一季減少 9.2 億美元。

Midstream results increased mostly due to record fractionation and LPG export volumes in addition to higher margins on LPG exports.

中游績效的成長主要得益於分餾和液化石油氣出口量創紀錄，以及液化石油氣出口利潤率提高。

In Chemicals, results decreased mainly due to lower polyethylene chain margins and higher costs related to turnarounds and maintenance.

化學品業務的業績下降主要是由於聚乙烯鏈利潤率下降以及與週轉和維護相關的成本上升。

Lower refining results primarily reflect weaker crack spreads and a full quarter of accelerated depreciation for the Los Angeles refinery.

煉油廠業績下滑主要反映出洛杉磯煉油廠裂解價差走弱以及整整一個季​​度的加速折舊。

Capture of the new Market indicator was 105%.

新市佔率指標為105%。

The increase in Market capture was partly the result of record clean product yield for the quarter, which included the benefits of butane blending.

市場佔有率的增加部分是由於本季創紀錄的清潔產品產量，其中包括丁烷混合的好處。

Marketing and specialties results were mostly lower due to seasonally lower margins.

由於季節性利潤率較低，行銷和專業業務的業績大多較低。

In renewable fuels results increased due to higher margins at the Rodeo complex as well as stronger international results.

再生燃料的業績因 Rodeo 綜合設施利潤率提高和國際業績強勁而成長。

Slide 9 shows the change in cash flow for the fourth quarter.

投影片 9 顯示了第四季的現金流變動。

Cash from operations excluding working capital was $901 million.

不包括營運資金的營運活動現金為 9.01 億美元。

There was a working capital benefit of $297 million mainly reflecting a reduction in inventories.

營運資本利得為 2.97 億美元，主要反映庫存減少。

We returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and we funded $506 million of capital spending.

我們透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 11 億美元，並為 5.06 億美元的資本支出提供資金。

Our ending cash balance was $1.7 billion.

我們的期末現金餘額為17億美元。

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2025, in Chemicals, we expect the global O&P utilization rate to be in the mid 90s.

展望 2025 年第一季度，我們預期化學品領域的全球 O&P 利用率將達到 90 年代中期。

In Refining, we have a heavy turnaround quarter and expect the worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low 80s and turnaround expense to be between $290 million and $310 million.

在煉油業務方面，我們經歷了一個艱難的周轉季度，預計全球原油利用率將在 80% 以下，週轉費用將在 2.9 億美元至 3.1 億美元之間。

We anticipate corporate and other costs to be between $310 million and $330 million.

我們預計公司和其他成本將在 3.1 億美元至 3.3 億美元之間。

For the full year, we expect turnaround expenses to be between $500 million and $550 million.

我們預計全年轉虧為盈費用將在 5 億至 5.5 億美元之間。

Depreciation and amortization will be approximately $3.3 billion.

折舊和攤提約為 33 億美元。

This includes $230 million per quarter of accelerated depreciation at the Los Angeles refinery.

其中包括洛杉磯煉油廠每季 2.3 億美元的加速折舊。

Now we will open the line for questions after which Mark will wrap up the call.

現在我們將開始問答環節，之後馬克將結束本次通話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, Mark and team.

早安，馬克和團隊。

I want to kick off on the Midstream transformation.

我想啟動中游轉型。

It does feel that the business is evolving to where Midstream is becoming a major focus and a much more important part of the business and want your perspective on what's the extent that is true.

我感覺到業務正在向中游成為主要焦點和更重要的業務部分的方向發展，我想聽聽您對於這種說法的真實程度的看法。

What's the best way to get there?

去那裡最好的方法是什麼？

To get there organically or to get there through M&A and how fast can this business grow?

是透過有機方式實現這一目標還是透過併購來實現這一目標，而這項業務能夠成長多快？

Any parameters around that would be helpful?

圍繞該參數的任何參數都會有幫助嗎？

Yeah, good morning, Neil.

是的，早上好，尼爾。

Thanks for your question.

感謝您的提問。

I'll talk about the high-level view and then Don can dive into the details.

我將會談論總體觀點，然後 Don 可以深入討論細節。

But you know, several years ago, we rolled up DCP, got control of those assets to align with the wholly owned assets that Phillips 66 had with fractionation capacity.

但你知道，幾年前，我們收購了 DCP，控制了這些資產，以與 Phillips 66 擁有的具有分餾能力的全資資產保持一致。

And that allowed us to consolidate into a full well head to Market strategy that we've been talking about.

這使我們能夠整合我們一直在談論的全面市場策略。

But we knew that we had opportunities to fill out that strategy and to really leverage that position.

但我們知道我們有機會完善這項策略，並真正發揮這一優勢。

And that's what you've been seeing both from an organic perspective and inorganic perspective.

這就是您從有機角度和無機角度所看到的。

And as you look at the inorganic things that we've done the acquisitions, we've done, they've been very focused on getting the right assets for the right value that could be accretive to us immediately based on the inorganic piece.

當您回顧我們進行的無機資產收購時，我們一直非常注重以正確的價值獲得正確的資產，這些資產可以在無機資產的基礎上立即為我們帶來增值。

But allow us to also have a footprint to grow organically and to capture more of the volumes coming out of the Permian.

但同時也讓我們擁有有機成長的足跡，並獲得更多來自二疊紀的產量。

So both the Pinnacle and Epic acquisitions really are prime examples of that.

因此，Pinnacle 和 Epic 的收購確實就是這方面的典型例子。

So we believe there are opportunities to do both, but I'll let Don dive into more of the details.

因此，我們相信有機會實現這兩點，但我會讓唐恩深入探討更多細節。

Sure.

當然。

Neil, I think what you see is, we put together a Midstream platform now, an NGL value chain that we believe we can grow organically at a mid-single digits growth rate on an annual basis.

尼爾，我想你看到的是，我們現在組建了一個中游平台，一個NGL價值鏈，我們相信我們可以以每年中等個位數的成長率有機成長。

That's what you see in the slide deck here growing to $500 million of EBITDA and being able to do that because we have clear line of sight to organic growth opportunities that we can execute within our $2 billion annual capital program.

這就是您在幻燈片中看到的，EBITDA 增長至 5 億美元，我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們清楚地看到了可以在我們 20 億美元年度資本計劃內實施的有機增長機會。

So I think it's really a testament to the strength of the platform that we have.

所以我認為這確實證明了我們平台的實力。

Certainly, from an acquisition standpoint, if there are opportunities that make sense, that are attractive from a strategic standpoint and evaluation, we'll take a hard look at it.

當然，從收購的角度來看，如果有有意義的機會，從策略角度和評估來看具有吸引力，我們就會認真考慮。

But our growth program here is premised on executing return, enhancing organic opportunities within our footprint and not dependent on or require future M&A activity.

但我們的成長計畫是以實現回報、增強我們業務範圍內的有機機會為前提的，而不是依賴或要求未來的併購活動。

Yeah, Neil, as you saw in our strategic parties that we laid out.

是的，尼爾，正如你在我們所製定的策略方針中所看到的那樣。

Everything that we do, whether it's in Refining or in Midstream, we're focused on enhancing the return on capital employed in each of those businesses as we make these capital allocation choices.

我們所做的一切，無論是在煉油領域還是在中游領域，我們都專注於在做出這些資本配置選擇時提高每個業務的資本回報率。

So we're very returns focused and value focused.

因此，我們非常注重回報和價值。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then the follow up is just as Midstream becomes a bigger part of the business, how do you think about the optimal capital structure?

然後接下來的問題是，隨著中游業務成為業務中更重要的一部分，您如何看待最佳資本結構？

You provide new disclosure today about being less than three times net debt to Midstream and Marketing.

您今天提供了新的披露信息，表明您對 Midstream 和 Marketing 的淨債務不到三倍。

So why is that the right number?

那麼為什麼這是正確的數字？

And there's an argument that the business can run a little bit more levered as it has more fee-based earnings.

有一種觀點認為，由於費用型收入較多，企業的槓桿率可以稍微提高一些。

Yeah, Neil, it's Kevin.

是的，尼爾，我是凱文。

I mean, you're exactly right.

我的意思是，你說得完全正確。

Bow as you will recall, we had objectives to reduce leverage over the course of last year, which we were not able to deliver on partly because we lean pretty heavy into cash returns to shareholders.

大家應該還記得，我們​​去年的目標是降低槓桿率，但未能實現，部分原因是我們過度依賴股東的現金回報。

And so, while we have set a target of a getting the debt balance back to $17 billion in a sub 30% debt to cap level, we also like to think of the balance sheet almost on a sum of the parts basis.

因此，雖然我們設定了將負債餘額恢復到 170 億美元、債務與資本比率低於 30% 的目標，但我們也喜歡將資產負債表視為各部分相加的基礎。

And so the Midstream and M&S segments bring the more stable earnings and cash generation approximately $6 billion at midcycle and at a three times or maybe even less than three times debt level, we can think of ourselves as having a strong balance sheet in the context of those two segments.

因此，中游和 M&S 部門在中期帶來了更穩定的收益和現金產生，約為 60 億美元，而債務水平是其三倍甚至不到三倍，我們可以認為自己擁有強勁的資產負債表。兩個部分。

Net zero for the refining business.

煉油業務淨零排放。

So in effect, the refining cash flows are all upside in the context of how you look at us, look at the company from a balance sheet standpoint.

因此實際上，從我們的角度來看，從資產負債表的角度來看公司，煉油現金流都是上升的。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I appreciate the chance to ask your question guys.

我很感謝有機會向你們提問。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Mark, I don't want to put words in your mouth, I think I heard you say something along the lines of our new disposal targets.

馬克，我不想把話塞到你嘴裡，我想我聽到你說了一些類似我們新的處置目標的話。

I don't think I actually heard of this new disposal target.

我認為我實際上沒有聽說過這個新的處置目標。

So I realize you hit a lot of your targets early for 2025.

所以我知道你提前實現了很多 2025 年的目標。

But what is the scope of the scale?

但其規模範圍是多少？

And I guess the way I heard it was you know, drop your debt and $17 billion clearly with additional disposals.

我聽到的意思是，減少債務，並透過額外處置的方式削減 170 億美元。

And I wanted to ask specifically about where you are with the rest of the retail system in Europe.

我想具體問問您在歐洲其他零售體系中的情況。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

My follow up is really a follow up to Neils.

我的跟進實際上是對 Neils 的跟進。

We hear this a lot about the embedded value in so specifically around the Midstream and where the Midstream companies are trading.

我們常聽到有關內含價值的說法，特別是在中游以及中游公司交易的地方。

And obviously Epic is a terrific bolt on.

顯然，Epic 是一個非常棒的附加產品。

But do you ever see a situation where Midstream is somehow separated or as a standalone business?

但您是否曾經看過中游業務以某種方式分離或作為獨立業務的情況？

I know it's a bit of a curveball question, but just in terms of the scale, the importance and maybe the failure of the market to recognize the value in your structure versus what you see for the standalone Midstream players.

我知道這是一個有點難以回答的問題，但僅就規模、重要性以及市場可能無法認識到你的結構的價值與獨立中游參與者的價值相比而言。

And thanks for your questions, Douglas.

感謝您的提問，道格拉​​斯。

Mark.

標記。

On dispositions, we did not put another target out there.

在部署方面，我們並沒有在那裡設定另一個目標。

I think that we achieved our targets with what we've actually closed and received the cash for to date.

我認為，透過迄今為止實際完成的交易和收到的現金，我們已經實現了我們的目標。

We still have things that we're working on out there and one of them is the retail opportunity in Europe, in Austria and Germany and that we're still in active discussions there.

我們仍在進行一些工作，其中之一就是歐洲、奧地利和德國的零售機會，我們仍在那裡進行積極的討論。

We think we can strike a deal around that.

我們認為我們可以就此達成協議。

But we found it a little bit counterproductive to put firm numbers out there when you're out negotiating these deals.

但我們發現，在談判這些交易時，給出確切的數字有點適得其反。

We will always be looking at our portfolio to determine if we've got assets that have higher value to others.

我們將始終關注我們的投資組合，以確定我們是否擁有對他人具有更高價值的資產。

And sometimes we get inbound calls that people want to talk about things, and we will entertain those calls as well.

有時我們會接到人們想談論一些事情的來電，我們也會接聽這些電話。

But it's always about value creation, how we can unlock value of what we view as trapped capital in some assets and redeploy those proceeds into our strategic priorities, whether it's returning it to shareholders, augmenting our balance sheet or investing in our businesses.

但它始終是關於價值創造，我們如何釋放我們認為被困在某些資產中的資本的價值，並將這些收益重新部署到我們的戰略重點中，無論是將其返還給股東，擴大我們的資產負債表還是投資我們的業務。

And so we're going to be doing that ongoing, but you're not going to see firm targets put out there, which it's -- you can think about it as continuous improvement in our portfolio just like we're focused on continuous improvement in our operations.

因此，我們將持續進行這項工作，但你不會看到設定明確的目標，你可以將其視為我們投資組合的持續改進，就像我們專注於持續改進一樣在我們的營運中。

And then from the embedded value of Midstream, we agree that that we're not seeing the full value of the things that we've done in Midstream, but we're really just getting started.

然後從中游的內在價值來看，我們同意我們還沒有看到我們在中游所做的事情的全部價值，但我們才剛剛起步。

I think that there's since our Epic acquisition, we've gotten a great response from the market.

我認為自從我們收購 Epic 以來，我們得到了市場的熱烈回應。

Good questions, understanding people are showing some interest and excitement around that.

很好的問題，理解的人們對此表現出一些興趣和興奮。

We've got some great long only in our shares because of what we're doing in Midstream.

由於我們在中游的業務往來，我們的股票獲得了很大的多頭持股。

So we think that, that story is still evolving and we're going to lean into that story going forward.

因此我們認為，這個故事仍在發展，我們將繼續向前發展。

You know, there's always a question when you have an integrated business like we do, is it better to separate those businesses somehow?

你知道，當你擁有像我們這樣的綜合性業務時，總會有一個問題：以某種方式分離這些業務是否更好？

We believe we can create more shareholder value by keeping the Midstream business integrated with our refining and our NGO Midstream business out to the petrochemical businesses.

我們相信，透過維持中游業務與煉油業務以及非政府組織中游業務與石化業務的整合，我們可以創造更多的股東價值。

And you'll hear more about that as we move on through the year.

隨著時間的流逝，您會聽到更多有關這方面的消息。

Doug, it's Kevin just to add on to Mark's comments.

道格，我是凱文，只是想補充馬克的評論。

If part of the question was more around, would we create a vehicle that has a public marker on it?

如果問題的一部分更多地圍繞著我們是否會製造一輛帶有公共標記的車輛？

Not a complete separation but helps provide some additional evaluation.

雖然不是完全的分離，但有助於提供一些額外的評估。

We went down that path before.

我們以前走過這條路。

That's a major decision to make and over time you look back over history.

這是一個重大的決定，隨著時間的推移，回顧歷史。

There are times where we've traded it for some of the parts.

有時我們會用它來交換某些零件。

There have been times where we haven’t, and we feel we're probably in that phase right now.

曾經有過這樣的情況，我們覺得我們現在可能正處於這個階段。

And I don't think that's the immediate response to that.

我不認為這是對此的立即回應。

I think as the way Mark described it really leaning in and providing the appropriate messaging and the investor disclosures around the Midstream business, the integration value that comes from the value, the two primary value chains that we have and focus on that this point in time.

我認為，正如馬克所描述的那樣，它確實傾向於提供適當的資訊和有關中游業務的投資者披露，整合價值來自於價值，我們擁有的兩個主要價值鏈，並專注於這個時間點。

That what you suggested is that option is always there.

您所建議的選項始終存在。

And so we would never say never, but it's not going to be the near term plan.

因此，我們永遠不會說永遠，但這不會是近期的計劃。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

If I may, I risk a quick follow up at the risk of jets last year.

如果可以的話，我願意冒險快速跟進去年噴射機的風險。

But the example obviously I was thinking about was [Zempi LX] because clearly there's a marker there.

但我顯然想到的例子是 [Zempi LX]，因為那裡顯然有一個標記。

But I take your point.

但我接受你的觀點。

My follow up really quick Mark is just remind us what the EBITDA is on the German, Austria business because we can all put multiple on that, I guess.

我的後續問題很簡單，馬克只是提醒我們德國、奧地利業務的 EBITDA 是多少，因為我想我們都可以將其乘以倍數。

Yeah, it's about 300 million.

是的，大概有3億。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First on the leverage update, can you think about, can you help us think about the path forward to achieve the below 30% net debt to capital?

首先關於槓桿率更新，您能否思考一下，能否幫助我們思考實現淨債務與資本比率低於 30% 的路徑？

What time frame would you expect to get to that?

您預計在什麼時間範圍內實現這一目標？

And are future [SSL] including the German, Austrian assets earmarked for that?

未來 [SSL] 包括德國、奧地利資產是否專門用於此？

How should we think about the path forward there?

我們該如何思考那裡的前進道路？

Yeah, Teresa.

是的，特蕾莎。

The path forward to the sub 30%.

邁向 30% 以下的道路。

And I think you look at the absolute $17 billion debt level in the same way because, one, I'm not saying that one will definitely enable the other, but they won't be too far apart in that context.

我認為你可以以同樣的方式看待 170 億美元的絕對債務水平，因為，一方面，我並不是說一個肯定會導致另一個，但在這種情況下，它們不會相差太遠。

And in fact, there's a kind of neat symmetry between all of those metrics that we put out the $17 billion, less than 30% and the less than 3x Midstream and M&S EBITDA, all kind of come together reasonably well.

事實上，我們提出的所有這些指標之間存在著一種巧妙的對稱性，即 170 億美元、不到 30% 以及不到 3 倍的中游和 M&S EBITDA，所有這些都合理地結合在一起。

But it's really a combination of -- if you look at our capital allocation model with 50% plus distributed to shareholders.

但它實際上是多種因素的結合——如果你看看我們的資本配置模型，其中 50% 以上分配給了股東。

So dividend plus buybacks, our sustaining capital is a $1 billion.

因此，股利加上回購，我們的維持資本是 10 億美元。

The organic capital program is a $1 billion.

有機資本計畫規模為10億美元。

And if you do the math based on a mid cycle set of assumptions, and I know we're not in mid cycle right now, but on mid cycle, you've got about $10 billion of cash generation and so $5 billion goes to shareholders.

如果你根據中期週期的假設進行計算，我知道我們現在還沒有進入中期週期，但在中期週期，你將獲得約 100 億美元的現金流，因此 50 億美元將歸股東。

That's the 50%, $2 billion of capital budget.

這是50%，即20億美元的資本預算。

So that's $7 billion, at least $3 billion.

所以那是 70 億美元，至少 30 億美元。

That's a lot of flexibility to either do debt reduction, incremental buybacks and/or bolt on acquisitions that make sense, like some of the things you've seen us do.

這具有很大的靈活性，可以進行減債、增量回購和/或有意義的收購，就像您看到我們所做的一些事情一樣。

In addition, we are still working on the Germany, Austria retail business.

此外，我們仍在致力於德國、奧地利的零售業務。

And so there's a fair amount of flexibility there in terms of how we get there.

因此，就我們如何實現這一目標而言，我們有相當大的靈活性。

So we feel pretty comfortable that those targets are all achievable, including our ongoing commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

因此，我們非常有信心這些目標都是可以實現的，包括我們持續致力於向股東回饋現金。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then going back to the topic of additional Midstream growth.

然後回到中游額外成長的話題。

When thinking about other M&A opportunities here, totally understanding Don's comments about doing what's right from both a strategic and economic perspective.

當考慮這裡的其他併購機會時，完全理解唐恩關於從戰略和經濟角度做正確事情的評論。

When we think about the Midstream assets that have been in the market, there are some that seem more obvious acquisition candidates for you, considering potential synergies in both Permian and DJ.

當我們考慮到已經進入市場的中游資產時，考慮到 Permian 和 DJ 的潛在協同效應，有些資產似乎是更明顯的收購候選人。

And then coupling that with who the bigger shippers on both Sand Hills and Epic as well as the visible need for incremental Permian processing.

然後將其與 Sand Hills 和 Epic 上較大的托運人以及對增量 Permian 處理的明顯需求結合。

Is FTC also a major concern here.

FTC 是否也是這裡關注的主要議題？

Do you think that would preclude some of the more obvious opportunities along your mystery footprint?

您是否認為這會排除您在神秘足跡上發現的一些更明顯的機會？

Yes.

是的。

Theresa, I think that obviously, we always have to take FTC considerations into play, but I don't think that's necessarily what would have us shy away from looking at any particular assets.

特蕾莎，我認為，顯然，我們必須始終將聯邦貿易委員會的考慮因素考慮在內，但我不認為這必然會讓我們迴避關注任何特定資產。

But we do take into consideration a broad range of assets that are out there, and we focus on what provides us the greatest value creation opportunity.

但我們確實考慮了現有的廣泛資產，並專注於那些能為我們提供最大價值創造機會的資產。

And we know intimately how easy it is to connect those assets to our system, what it does from a G&P perspective, what it does from a transportation perspective.

我們非常清楚將這些資產連接到我們的系統是多麼容易，從 G&P 角度和運輸角度來看它的作用是什麼。

And quite importantly, what additional opportunities does it open up for us to grow organically?

而且非常重要的是，它為我們實現有機成長帶來了哪些額外的機會？

Because we really see the upside in returns in going in and building things at a low build multiple and realizing that full uptick while adding inorganically things at attractive pricing that also are accretive to our returns and our earnings.

因為我們確實看到了以較低的建設倍數進入和建設項目並實現全面上漲的回報空間，同時以有吸引力的價格添加無機產品，這也會增進我們的回報和收益。

Yes, I'll just add, Theresa.

是的，我只想補充一下，特蕾莎。

I think along the lines of that value creation, just the M&A -- our M&A lens will really be focused on what is opportunities that we see that are scalable that really enhance our platform.

我認為，沿著價值創造的思路，僅透過併購——我們的併購視角將真正集中在我們看到的可擴展且真正增強我們平台的機會上。

And that's really what drives our thought process, not an FTC lens.

這才是真正推動我們思考過程的因素，而不是 FTC 的觀點。

It's just that's well down the path as we evaluate opportunities.

當我們評估機會時，這已經是很好的進展了。

But again, I think I'd go back to -- we just see a lot of organic opportunities within our footprint.

但是，我想我會回顧一下——我們只是在我們的足跡中看到了很多有機機會。

And so we're very focused on executing those and growing our business that way, first and foremost.

因此，我們首先非常注重執行這些目標，並以這種方式發展我們的業務。

Yes.

是的。

We recognize our capital constraints.

我們認識到我們的資本限制。

We're not going to grow Midstream just to grow Midstream, just to get bigger.

我們擴大中游業務並不是為了擴大規模，也不是為了變得更大。

We're going to grow Midstream to create more value for our shareholders, and we're very disciplined around that.

我們將發展中游業務，為股東創造更多價值，我們對此非常嚴格。

We've got capital constraints, and we're going to be very picky about what we do.

我們受到資金限制，因此我們對所做的事情會非常挑剔。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Switching gears a little.

稍微轉換一下話題。

We saw relatively weaker ethylene chain margins here, and I know it's a seasonally weaker quarter.

我們看到這裡的乙烯鏈利潤率相對較弱，而且我知道這是一個季節性較弱的季度。

I'm just trying to understand, in management's opinion, when can we start moving towards -- closer to the mid-cycle margins as it relates to the [ethane] chain margins and chemicals?

我只是想了解，從管理層的角度來看，我們什麼時候可以開始接近與[乙烷]鏈利潤和化學品相關的中期利潤？

Yes, Manav, that's a great question.

是的，Manav，這是一個很好的問題。

I think in the fourth quarter, CPChem saw a couple of things going on in their chain margin.

我認為在第四季度，CPChem 的鍊式利潤率出現了一些變化。

Of course, ethane pricing strengthened, crude pricing weakened, which they've got a great advantage with their ethane position.

當然，乙烷價格走強，原油價格走弱，他們憑藉乙烷地位獲得了巨大優勢。

But when both of those things happen, I think their impact will show up.

但當這兩件事都發生時，我認為它們的影響就會顯現出來。

I think in the longer term, the macro is supportive.

我認為從長期來看，宏觀經濟是有利的。

Demand continues to grow.

需求持續成長。

You're seeing rationalizations in Europe.

您會看到歐洲出現合理化現象。

You're seeing temporary shutdowns in Europe.

您會看到歐洲出現暫時停工的情況。

I think this year, North American producers had record exports that tells you about the strength of our economics here in North America versus other locations in the world.

我認為，今年北美生產商的出口創下了紀錄，這說明了北美相對於世界其他地區的經濟實力。

I think for the first time ever, more than half of the polyethylene producer in North America was exported into the world market.

我認為，這是有史以​​來第一次，北美一半以上的聚乙烯生產商的產品出口到世界市場。

So they're playing to CPChem strengths in the midterm and long term.

因此，他們正在發揮 CPChem 的中期和長期優勢。

You can see that in their operating rates.

您可以從他們的營業率中看到這一點。

And we see continued margin improvement.

我們看到利潤率持續提高。

And actually, it's good and healthy that you see slow -- recovery slow climb out.

事實上，看到緩慢的復甦，是件好事，也是健康的事。

And we see that continuing this year into next year. really on through 2026.

我們認為這種情況今年會持續到明年。真正持續到 2026 年。

And then their new assets will be stepping right into pretty healthy margins by the end of 2026.

到 2026 年底，他們的新資產將實現相當可觀的利潤率。

Perfect.

完美的。

My quick follow-up here is a very big improvement in renewable fuels, congratulations, breaking even.

我在這裡要快速跟進的是可再生燃料的極大改善，祝賀您，實現收支平衡。

Help us understand quarter-over-quarter, some of the dynamics that went your way, which allowed you to almost raise earnings in renewable, feels, by like $150 million.

幫助我們了解季度環比變化的一些動態，這些動態使您的再生能源收益幾乎增加了 1.5 億美元。

Manav, this is Brian.

Manav，這是 Brian。

We'll start off by saying, yes, we did $28 million in the quarter.

首先我們要說的是，本季我們的營收確實達到了 2,800 萬美元。

We're happy with that as a start.

我們對此感到很高興。

We ran well in the quarter.

我們在本季表現良好。

We continued to lower our cost profile.

我們繼續降低成本。

As we discussed last earnings call, we processed a higher CI feed in the quarter as we ran off less valuable feedstock prior to the implementation of the BTC credit.

正如我們在上次收益電話會議上所討論的那樣，由於在實施 BTC 信貸之前我們消耗的原料價值較低，因此我們在本季度處理了更高的 CI 進料。

Additionally, because of the higher CI material, we didn't produce renewable jet fuel for the quarter.

此外，由於 CI 材料較高，我們本季沒有生產再生航空燃料。

We did announce in Q4 a deal to sell United Airlines up to 8 million gallons of SAF.

我們確實在第四季度宣布了向美國聯合航空出售高達 800 萬加侖 SAF 的交易。

And we've secured a couple of more contracts in Q1 to supply SAF to airlines.

我們在第一季又簽訂了幾份向航空公司供應 SAF 的合約。

But just thinking about looking forward at renewable diesel margins, we anticipate continued weakness, mostly on the regulatory uncertainty that keeps the market on somewhat weak footing.

但僅從再生柴油利潤率的角度來看，我們預期其利潤率將持續疲軟，主要是因為監管的不確定性導致市場基礎較為薄弱。

We'll need to have additional clarity on a number of factors affecting renewable margins, including the PTC, the RVO, LCFS rules, tariffs, renewable, or small refinery exemptions, just to name a few.

我們需要進一步明確影響再生能源利潤率的一系列因素，其中包括 PTC、RVO、LCFS 規則、關稅、再生能源或小型煉油廠豁免等等。

So we'll continue to manage our flexible system.

因此我們將繼續管理我們的靈活系統。

We buy a lot of feedstock.

我們購買了很多原料。

We buy more feedstock than our system needs.

我們購買的原料比我們的系統所需的多。

And so we can move those net feedstock around and manage the optionality in the system.

這樣我們就可以轉移這些淨原料，並管理系統中的可選性。

But we'll continue to use the LP at the refinery to provide the most favoured renewable feedstock.

但我們將繼續在煉油廠使用低壓煉油廠來提供最受青睞的再生原料。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

I wanted to follow up on Theresa's question about the Epic acquisition.

我想跟進 Theresa 關於 Epic 收購的問題。

I think most midstream investors I talked to were a little surprised by the moves to add more NGL pipeline capacity without getting more processing to fill those pipelines.

我認為，大多數與我交談過的中游投資者對於增加 NGL 管道產能但沒有增加加工量來填充這些管道的舉措感到有些驚訝。

Given that you were already kind of under-indexed to processing before the deal compared to peers, I know the pipes are contracted medium term but does this put pressure on you to get more processing either organically or inorganically in the next few years as those contracts start to roll off?

鑑於與同行相比，您在交易之前就已經對加工業務的投入不足，我知道管道合約是中期簽訂的，但這是否會給您帶來壓力，讓您在未來幾年內通過有機或無機的方式獲得更多加工？

Jean Ann, this is Don.

Jean Ann，這是 Don。

As you heard from Mark, the Epic acquisition is very compelling to us and for a variety of reasons.

正如馬克所說，出於多種原因，Epic 的收購對我們來說非常有吸引力。

But to kind of unpack and address your question regarding kind of capacity and supply, because it's certainly a question we've had a couple of times, but I'll focus on this one key attribute.

但為了解釋並回答你關於產能和供應的問題，因為這確實是我們遇到過幾次的問題，但我將重點放在這個關鍵屬性。

And that is that Epic provides us and brings us needed Permian pipeline capacity.

這就是 Epic 為我們提供並帶來所需的二疊紀管道容量。

That is already an expansion program that is very capital-efficient, cost-effective.

這已經是一個資本效率高、成本效益高的擴張計畫。

And we see that as being very important to us.

我們認為這對我們非常重要。

And the reason that is, is right now, our supply portfolio runs at about 125% of our Sand Hills capacity.

原因在於，目前我們的供應組合約為 Sand Hills 產能的 125%。

So that means we move a lot of product on third-party pipelines.

這意味著我們透過第三方管道運輸大量產品。

And if you kind of look through '25 and out the years, that supply level will continue to grow this year as well as next as we bring on our expansion plant at Pinnacle in July of '25, as we bring on a third-party plant that's dedicated to us.

如果你回顧 25 年及以後的年份，你會發現今年和明年的供應水平將繼續增長，因為我們在 25 年 7 月在 Pinnacle 開設了擴建工廠，並引入了第三方專門為我們建造的工廠。

I'd also expect that we'll be in a position to announce expansion of another plant in the Permian later this year.

我還預計，我們將在今年稍後宣布擴建二疊紀盆地的另一家工廠。

And so when you think about all of that supply coming on, it really combines very well and fits very well with the Epic capacity.

因此，當您考慮所有這些供應時，它們確實結合得非常好，並且與 Epic 容量非常契合。

We'll be able to move product off the third-party pipelines.

我們將能夠將產品從第三方管道中移出。

As our G&P volumes grow, we'll be able to fill in the expansion capacity that comes online at the end of '26 with Epic.

隨著我們的 G&P 量不斷增長，我們將能夠利用 Epic 填補 26 年底上線的擴展容量。

So it really gives us room to continue to grow our G&P footprint.

因此，這確實為我們繼續擴大 G&P 足跡提供了空間。

So that's what's quite exciting.

這是非常令人興奮的事。

So for us, Epic is really the right size and the right time from an expansion and capacity standpoint.

因此對我們來說，從擴充和容量的角度來看，Epic 的規模和時機確實合適。

It fits really well with our existing assets.

它與我們現有的資產非常契合。

We're already highly connected in a lot of spots with them.

我們已經在許多方面與他們建立了緊密的聯繫。

So when you think about integration and synergies, it's a very straightforward approach with really minimal integration costs to achieve.

因此，當您考慮整合和協同作用時，這是一種非常直接的方法，並且只需極少的整合成本即可實現。

So very excited to bring this in, allow us to continue to grow our supply, pull supply of third-party lines and put it all in our system, provide really good service to the Gulf Coast for our shippers and our producers.

我們非常高興能夠引入這項技術，這使我們能夠繼續增加供應量，拉動第三方航線的供應，並將其全部納入我們的系統，為我們的托運人和生產商提供墨西哥灣沿岸的真正優質服務。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Maybe shift gears a little bit to Refining, if that's all right.

如果可以的話，也許可以稍微轉向精煉。

Kind of two main questions.

有兩種主要問題。

One, just as you look at the overall fundamentals, kind of how do you see the market here?

首先，正如您所觀察的整體基本面，您如何看待這裡的市場？

And then the second part of that, digging in a little deeper on crude supply, crude availability.

然後是第二部分，深入探討原油供應和原油可用性。

You've got, obviously, a lot of moving parts on the policy side, tariffs, sanctions on countries that have been supplying crude here, that sort of thing.

顯然，政策方面有許多變動，例如關稅、對美國原油供應國的製裁等等。

Just kind of a broad question, but how do you see things?

這只是個很廣泛的問題，但是您是如何看待這件事的？

Roger, this is Brian.

羅傑，這是布萊恩。

Maybe I'll start with kind of product demand and supply, and then we'll work on crude and tariffs.

也許我會從產品需求和供應開始，然後再討論原油和關稅。

On gasoline, we saw 2024 gasoline demand up a bit, mostly on lower Asian demand growth.

就汽油而言，我們預計 2024 年汽油需求將略有上升，主要是因為亞洲需求成長放緩。

We saw strong vehicle switching in Europe, where demand was up almost 3%.

我們看到歐洲的汽車轉換勢頭強勁，需求成長了近 3%。

US demand increased a bit too driven by lower retail prices.

由於零售價格下降，美國的需求也略有增加。

The demand outlook, we think, looks stronger for 2025 with stable GDP outlooks and Chinese vehicle fleet showing a reduction in the growth in EV sales.

我們認為，由於 GDP 前景穩定且中國汽車保有量出現電動車銷量增幅放緩，2025 年的需求前景將更加強勁。

So our demand forecast for 2025 for gasoline globally is up 0.8% and up 0.2% in the US.

因此，我們預測 2025 年全球汽油需求將成長 0.8%，美國汽油需求將成長 0.2%。

And on the distillate side, 2024 global distillate demand was 0.9% lower than 2023.

在餾分油方面，2024 年全球餾分油需求將比 2023 年低 0.9%。

4Q '24 US demand was actually up 0.4% versus 4Q prior year.

24年第四季美國需求實際上比去年同期成長了0.4%。

Currently, US distillate inventories are about 8% under 5-year averages, quite a bit.

目前，美國餾分油庫存比5年平均低約8％，相當高。

We're forecasting global distillate demand for 2025 at 1% over '24, with gains particularly focused across India, Malaysia and Indonesia.

我們預測 2025 年全球餾分油需求將比 24 年成長 1%，增幅將主要集中在印度、馬來西亞和印尼。

And US distillate demand up about 2%.

美國餾分油需求成長約2%。

On the tariff question, I think, first of all, we don't know if we're going to have tariffs.

關於關稅問題，我認為，首先，我們不知道是否會徵收關稅。

But assuming that there are tariffs in Canada and Mexico, our view is that both markets will act a little bit differently.

但假設加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅，我們認為這兩個市場的表現會略有不同。

So we think tariffs in Canada, first thing that happens is TMX gets filled.

因此，我們認為，在加拿大，首先發生的事情是 TMX 得到滿足。

The second thing that happens is, currently, the inventories are low, the inventories will start to fell.

第二件事是，目前庫存較低，庫存將開始下降。

But ultimately, the differentials, the WCS differential, will widen to incentivize crude to move into the US because crude actually has to move into the US.

但最終，差異，即 WCS 差異，將會擴大，以激勵原油進入美國，因為原油實際上必須進入美國。

There's a lot of value in Canadian crude before there's any production cuts.

在減產之前，加拿大原油的價值仍然很高。

I think in PADD IV and parts of PADD II, there aren't as many alternative supplies, the crack (technical difficulty) will also have to do some work.

我覺得在PADD IV和PADD II的部分內容中，替代物資沒有那麼多，破解（技術難度）也要做些工作。

And then on the Mexico side, Mexican tariffs, there's about 450,000 barrels a day of Mexican crude that comes into the US We think that crude will be displaced.

然後從墨西哥方面來看，墨西哥的關稅，每天大約有 45 萬桶墨西哥原油進入美國，我們認為這些原油將被取代。

It will move to Europe, maybe Asia, and other crudes will come in.

它將轉移到歐洲，也許是亞洲，還有其他原油流入。

We would expect to see the heavy crudes firm a bit just on the inefficiency of logistics.

我們預計，由於物流效率低下，重質原油價格將略為走強。

But as the year goes on and OPEC puts more barrels back on to the market, we would expect those differentials to widen back out.

但隨著時間的推移，歐佩克將更多石油重新投放到市場，我們預期這些差距將會進一步擴大。

Very comprehensive.

很全面。

I'll turn it back.

我會把它轉回去。

John Royall, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的約翰‧羅亞爾 (John Royall)。

So my first question is maybe you can talk about your outlook for your Refining business at mid-cycle.

所以我的第一個問題是，也許您可以談談您對中期煉油業務的展望。

According to your slides, you've achieved the $5 billion of EBITDA.

根據您的幻燈片，您已經實現了 50 億美元的 EBITDA。

But if I remember correctly, you had a number of initiatives that you touched on at Investor Day around capture rates that weren't officially in those targets?

但如果我沒記錯的話，您在投資者日上談到了一些與捕獲率有關的舉措，但這些舉措並沒有正式包含在這些目標中？

I think you also have some ongoing reliability work and working around the OpEx side.

我認為您還在進行一些可靠性工作以及圍繞 OpEx 方面的工作。

So I'm just trying to think through if there's some possibility that that $5 billion can really be moving up over the next couple of years.

所以我只是想知道這 50 億美元在未來幾年是否真的有可能增加。

Because it does feel like there's still some opportunity remaining there.

因為確實感覺到那裡仍然有一些機會。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

This is Rich, John. organization, I can't tell you how proud I am of the organization and the work that's been going on inside the organization.

這是里奇，約翰。組織，我無法告訴你我為這個組織以及組織內部正在進行的工作感到多麼自豪。

It's been fantastic.

這真是太棒了。

On the reliability front, we've operated quite well as a system.

在可靠性方面，我們的系統運作得相當好。

As a matter of fact, eight consecutive quarters over industry average.

事實上，連續八個季度超過行業平均水平。

In fourth quarter, we were sitting at a very nice 94%, and that's a healthy, healthy number for us.

在第四季度，我們的盈利率達到了 94%，這對我們來說是一個非常健康的數字。

And the underlying part of that is really driven by our reliability program.

而這背後的根本原因其實是由我們的可靠性計畫所推動的。

We actually achieved a 98% mechanical availability on the crude units, which for the year actually drove us to a 95% utilization across the entire year.

我們實際上實現了原油裝置的 98% 機械可用性，這實際上使我們全年的利用率達到了 95%。

So the reliability programs have been working really, really well for us.

因此，可靠性計劃對我們來說效果非常非常好。

And that's fundamental to being in the market when the market is there, right?

當市場存在時，這正是進入市場的基礎，對嗎？

So that reliability.

因此具有可靠性。

The other part of the program has really been around increasing our market capture, as you indicated.

正如您所說，該計劃的另一部分實際上是為了提高我們的市場佔有率。

And we've been working on a series of high-return, low-capital projects there.

我們一直在那裡開展一系列高回報、低資本的項目。

And it's tough to see those in this low-margin environment right now and -- but there are some really good signposts there that are showing their way through.

目前，在這種低利潤的環境中，很難看到這些企業的成功——但也有一些非常好的路標為他們指明了方向。

And one of them is the record clean product yield that was mentioned in the opening comments. 88% fourth quarter '24.

其中之一就是開篇提到的創紀錄的清潔產品產量。 24年第四季成長88%。

That is the highest we've ever achieved as an organization.

這是我們作為一個組織所取得的最高成就。

Now seasonally, that's supported by butane, but that's been going on for years.

現在從季節性來看，這是由丁烷支撐的，但這種情況已經持續多年了。

There's still some underlying clean product yield that's improving.

一些潛在的清潔產品產量仍在提高。

And that also -- we achieved an 87% clean product yield across the entire year.

而且，我們全年的清潔產品產量達到了 87%。

So a fantastic performance.

表演非常精彩。

And what's most important about that is that the gasoline yield stayed pretty flat, which is consistent with Brian's comments on the marketplace, but we've actually increased our distillate yield through that process.

最重要的是，汽油產量保持相當平穩，這與布萊恩對市場的評論一致，但我們實際上透過這個過程提高了餾分油產量。

So we're actually seeing yield improvements.

因此我們實際上看到了產量的增加。

These aren't just fractionation changes that are occurring inside the plant.

這些不僅僅是工廠內部發生的分餾變化。

And that's led to a pretty solid market capture here that -- in the fourth quarter of 105.

這導致了這裡相當穩固的市場佔領——在第四季度達到 105。

The last part of that mantra that we've been working on is really that cost reduction, right, that dollar per barrel.

我們一直在努力實現的這個口號的最後一個部分實際上是降低成本，也就是每桶一美元。

And that's -- roughly, we've moved $650 million out of our operating expense.

這就是 — — 大致而言，我們從營運費用中拿出了 6.5 億美元。

And that includes our share of WRB, our proportionate share there.

其中包括我們在 WRB 中的份額，也就是我們在該部分中所佔的比例。

But we clearly see that hitting the line.

但我們清晰的看到了擊中線的跡象。

So with that, the additional market capture, the reliability components, that mid-cycle target that you're talking about is well within range.

因此，額外的市場份額、可靠性組件以及您所說的中期目標都在範圍內。

And we feel that that's very achievable, that $5 billion.

我們認為，這 50 億美元是可以實現的。

And we're going to continue to strive on that and through that as the market continues to improve.

隨著市場不斷改善，我們將繼續為此而努力。

But don't let me leave you with the opinion that I think we're done with this whole program, right?

但是，請不要讓我給你留下這樣的印象：我認為我們已經完成了整個計劃，對嗎？

We're going to continue to drive the efficiencies out of the business.

我們將繼續提高業務效率。

Our reliability journey is never going to be over.

我們的可靠性之旅永遠不會結束。

And we're going to continue our focus of these small projects with high return on increasing the production of our most valuable products.

我們將繼續專注於這些回報豐厚的小型項目，以提高我們最有價值產品的產量。

And we're going to do all that with our industry-leading standards in health, safety and environment.

我們將以業界領先的健康、安全和環境標準來實現這一切。

Yes.

是的。

Our engineers and operators out of the plants are just hyper-focused on taking the reliability journey from the crude units on throughout the downstream units in the refineries.

我們工廠的工程師和操作員高度重視從原油裝置到煉油廠下游裝置的可靠性。

Because as you get better with the crude units, that puts the pressure downstream, and they are out there actively pushing and harvesting those opportunities and teeing them up as well.

因為隨著原油部門的不斷改進，下游的壓力也隨之增大，而他們也積極推動和收穫這些機會，並將其發揮出來。

So we're going to continue to do this each and every day, looking for ways to improve, drive those inefficiencies out, and open up opportunities for more throughput and more reliable throughput.

因此，我們將繼續每天這樣做，尋找改進的方法，消除效率低下的問題，並為提高吞吐量和更可靠的吞吐量創造機會。

Very thorough. and if I could just follow up on RD margins.

非常徹底。我是否可以跟進 RD 利潤率？

You've already given some thoughts on margins.

您已經對利潤率提出了一些想法。

But I was hoping to dig in on your thoughts on the 45 Z in particular.

但我希望深入了解您對 45 Z 的看法。

And what are the different scenarios for how that could play out this year?

那麼今年可能會出現哪些不同的情況呢？

And maybe in the extreme where we have no BTC or PTC for a sustained period of time, what would that look like for the industry?

也許在極端情況下，我們在一段較長的時間內沒有 BTC 或 PTC，這對產業來說會是什麼樣子？

Would you expect the RIN to plug the difference?

您希望 RIN 能夠填補這一差距嗎？

Or will we end up seeing some kind of capacity coming out?

或者我們最終會看到某種產能的釋放？

John, it's Brian.

約翰，我是布萊恩。

Yes, I think when you think about RD margins and renewable jet margins, you have to think about all the credits, the cost of the feedstock and the value of the product.

是的，我認為當您考慮研發利潤和可再生噴射機利潤時，您必須考慮所有的信用、原料成本和產品的價值。

And if there's a PTC or BTC or there's none of the above, then the other credits, the value of the feedstock stock and the final product have to move in tandem to drive a margin.

如果存在 PTC 或 BTC，或以上都不存在，那麼其他信用、原料庫存價值和最終產品的價值必須同步變動才能推動利潤。

And if that doesn't happen, we're going to see plans start to cut.

如果這沒有發生，我們將看到計劃開始削減。

So even now when margins are low for biodiesel, we've seen biodiesel plants cut back their runs, so that helps expand the margin as they cut back because there's less renewable diesel on the market.

因此，即使現在生質柴油的利潤率很低，我們也看到生質柴油工廠減少了產量，因為市場上的再生柴油減少了，這有助於擴大利潤率。

So we'll see all those things work in tandem to drive margins for the operations.

因此，我們將看到所有這些因素協同作用，共同提高營運利潤率。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

I wanted to ask another one on corporate structure.

我想再問一個關於公司結構的問題。

Phillips has been the -- they've shut down more refining assets since COVID relative to peers.

自從疫情爆發以來，菲利普斯相對於同行已經關閉了更多的煉油資產。

And as you think about the right size of the Refining footprint, not only to kind of optimize the system but to support Midstream and get the right multiple within the company, do you see further potential to rationalize some of your refining assets?

當您考慮煉油足跡的正確規模時，不僅要優化系統，還要支持中游並在公司內部獲得正確的倍數，您是否看到了進一步合理化部分煉油資產的潛力？

Or do you feel like after the LA refining shutdown, you're in a pretty competitive position with your Refining asset base?

或者您覺得在洛杉磯煉油廠關閉後，您的煉油廠資產基礎將處於相當有競爭力的地位？

Thanks, Jason.

謝謝，傑森。

Exiting LA does -- will have a material impact on our cost structure, and that's part of the story there.

離開洛杉磯確實會對我們的成本結構產生重大影響，這是故事的一部分。

I think we're always evaluating our assets and each location has different pressures, different opportunities.

我認為我們一直在評估我們的資產，每個地點都有不同的壓力和不同的機會。

And those -- if those things change, and certainly, that's what we saw in California, that it moved to a set of conditions where it was really not viable to continue, we'll make those decisions.

如果這些情況發生變化，當然，這就是我們在加州看到的情況，即情況已經發展到無法繼續下去的程度，我們就會做出這些決定。

But really, it is an ongoing evaluation of all the assets in our portfolio.

但實際上，這是對我們投資組合中所有資產的持續評估。

We don't have anything staring us in the face that would indicate we've got other assets that we need to shut down.

我們眼前並沒有任何跡象顯示我們還有其他資產需要關閉。

There may be people that would want to buy some of those assets, and we'd entertain those conversations.

可能會有人想購買其中一些資產，我們會考慮這些討論。

We know where we want to focus, we know what we need to do to get better in Refining.

我們知道我們想要專注的重點，我們知道我們需要做什麼才能在煉油方面做得更好。

We don't necessarily need to get bigger in Refining, but we're going to focus on getting better every day.

我們不一定需要在煉油領域取得更大的進步，但我們會致力於每天進步。

And again, we're not going to grow Midstream just to grow Midstream.

再說一次，我們不會只是為了發展中游而發展中游。

We're going to grow Midstream because there's opportunities there to grow.

我們將發展中游業務，因為那裡有發展的機會。

And volumes are growing and we've got some really advantaged positions that we can leverage to enhance the ROCE of our Midstream business while we grow the volumes that we process, and open up opportunities for upstream customers to get their materials to a wide array of markets that we can facilitate.

而且產量正在成長，我們擁有一些真正有利的地位，可以利用這些地位來提高我們中游業務的 ROCE，同時增加我們加工的產量，並為上游客戶創造機會，讓他們將材料送到各種各樣的我們可以促進的市場。

And that's one of the things that Epic does for us.

這就是 Epic 為我們做的事情之一。

It brings us into Corpus Christi, and we can bring Corpus Christi volumes to the Sweeny hub, all the way to Mont Belvieu.

它將帶我們進入科珀斯克里斯蒂，我們可以將科珀斯克里斯蒂的捲宗帶到斯威尼樞紐，一直到貝爾維尤山。

It just really affords our customers, from the upstream perspective, a wide array of opportunities to monetize their hydrocarbons.

從上游角度來看，它確實為我們的客戶提供了大量將其碳氫化合物貨幣化的機會。

And my follow-up is on the marketing business.

我的後續工作是行銷業務。

There was a pretty large decline quarter-over-quarter, larger than what would seasonally be expected.

與上一季相比，降幅相當大，大於季節性預期。

I think you tend to see outside moves in marketing to the downside when crude prices increased rapidly, but we don't really see that in 4Q.

我認為，當原油價格快速上漲時，你往往會看到外部行銷舉措向下行，但我們在第四季並沒有看到這種情況。

So I was wondering if you could elaborate on what drove the marketing weakness in 4Q and if you expect that to continue or not.

所以我想知道您是否可以詳細說明導致第四季度行銷疲軟的原因，以及您預計這種情況是否會持續下去。

Jason, it's Brian.

傑森，我是布萊恩。

You're right, marketing margins were off in Q4 with seasonal weakness.

您說得對，由於季節性疲軟，第四季度的行銷利潤率有所下降。

But the big thing we saw, we -- in Q3, M&S earnings benefit from about a $50 million inventory hedging impact from falling prices.

但我們看到的最大的情況是，在第三季度，瑪莎百貨的收益因價格下跌而受益於約 5000 萬美元的庫存對沖影響。

And that got reversed out in Q4 when the physical barrels were actually sold, so that created a $100 million negative sequential impact.

但在第四季度實體石油桶實際售出後，這種情況被逆轉，產生了 1 億美元的負面連續影響。

There were a couple of other little things.

還有一些其他的小事。

We had a 20-day turnaround in our base oil plant and lower base oil spreads.

我們的基礎油工廠的周轉時間為20天，基礎油價差較低。

But overall, the marketing volumes remained strong for the quarter.

但整體而言，本季的營銷量依然強勁。

So I'd say, looking forward to your question, we expect Q1 to follow our historical trend.

所以我想說，期待您的提問，我們預計第一季將遵循我們的歷史趨勢。

In January, we did see about 3% Marketing volume impact from the winter storms and from the California fires, although the addition of new business should close that gap.

1 月份，我們確實看到冬季風暴和加州火災對行銷量造成了約 3% 的影響，但新業務的增加應該會彌補這一差距。

And we didn't see any operational volume effects from the fires that are caused on our lubricants business.

而且，我們的潤滑油業務發生的火災並未對營運量造成任何影響。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。

On the new target of $5.50 a barrel of controllable refinery cost, I think you were at $6.71 in 2024, which already reflected some pretty good progress.

關於每桶 5.50 美元的可控煉油成本的新目標，我認為到 2024 年將會達到 6.71 美元，這已經反映出相當不錯的進展。

Could you talk about the additional levers that you can pull?

您能談談您可以採取的額外措施嗎？

And then of the delta of the new target, how much will the closure of the Los Angeles Refinery to contribute to that further improvement?

那麼，在新目標的增量中，洛杉磯煉油廠的關閉將為進一步的改善做出多大的貢獻？

Matt, this is Rich.

馬特，這是里奇。

Good question.

好問題。

So how do we plan to achieve the $5.50 per barrel?

那麼我們計劃如何實現每桶 5.50 美元的目標呢？

So first of all, the base is pretty important to talk about.

因此，首先，談論基礎非常重要。

This is $5.50 ex turnaround cost, too.

這也是 5.50 美元的周轉成本。

So our 2024, we ended approximately about $5.90 a barrel in operating expense, excluding turnarounds.

因此，到 2024 年，我們的營業費用（不包括週轉費用）約為每桶 5.90 美元。

So there's about a $0.40 delta there in that.

因此，其中的差異約為 0.40 美元。

We do see the ceasing of operation at Los Angeles occurring in the fourth quarter.

我們確實看到洛杉磯的業務將在第四季度停止。

This historically has been one of our higher cost operations.

從歷史上看，這是我們成本較高的業務之一。

So there'll be a net deduction across the system impact, and that's roughly 50% of the gap.

因此，整個系統的影響將有一個淨扣除額，這大約是差距的 50%。

And the balance of that, we will look at closing using the momentum of the organization that's already been built up through our business transformation opportunities and exercises.

除此之外，我們還將利用透過業務轉型機會和實踐已經建立起來的組織動能來考慮結束這項交易。

We're continually challenging ourselves to reduce the inefficiencies.

我們不斷挑戰自我，減少低效率。

I've talked a lot about the reliability programs and that continued reliability actually drives down your operating expense as you become more reliable.

我已經多次談論了可靠性計劃，隨著可靠性的提高，持續的可靠性實際上會降低營運費用。

And then, of course, there's the denominator on this equation as well and continuing to push the barrel numbers and the clean product yield up on the backside of the number.

然後，當然，這個等式中還有分母，並且繼續將桶數和清潔產品產量推高到數字的背面。

So we see this as a pretty clear path.

因此我們認為這是一條非常清晰的道路。

Is it a stretch?

這有點誇張嗎？

It's a bit of a stretch, yes.

是的，這確實有點誇張。

Is it achievable?

可以實現嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

We will achieve this.

我們將會實現這一目標。

And I'm very confident by '26, we'll have that number down there on a routine basis.

我非常有信心，到 26 年，我們將會定期實現這個數字。

Matthew, just for you and for others listening in, on Page 17 of our supplemental, it's the second to the last line there, Refining adjusted controllable cost, excluding turnaround expense.

馬修，僅供你和其他聽眾參考，在我們的補充資料第 17 頁，倒數第二行，精煉調整後的可控成本，不包括週轉費用。

So that's where the $5.50 number is comparable.

因此，5.50 美元這個數字是可以比較的。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And then you mentioned that there was no SAF production in the fourth quarter.

然後您提到第四季度沒有 SAF 生產。

As we turn into 2025, the EU is implementing the 2% SAF blending mandate.

進入 2025 年，歐盟將實施 2% SAF 混合規定。

So could you talk about what you're seeing in that market?

那麼您能談談您在該市場看到的情況嗎？

Are you seeing calls for increased SAF demand as a result of this EU mandate?

您是否看到了由於歐盟的這項授權而對 SAF 需求增加的呼聲？

Or has that not really materialized yet?

或者這還沒有真正實現？

And would you expect to increase your SAF production as we progress through 2025?

您是否預計到 2025 年 SAF 產量會增加？

Yes.

是的。

We think renewable jet and SAF are going to be important products we made renewable in January.

我們認為可再生噴射機和SAF將成為我們一月份可再生的重要產品。

We'll make it again in February.

二月份我們會再做一次。

If you look at renewable jet versus RD right now, it's a pretty tight market.

如果現在比較可再生噴射機與研發，就會發現這是一個相當緊張的市場。

But we continue to use our linear program out of refineries to determine what we should make, what makes the most sense in terms of netback or value in the market.

但是，我們繼續使用煉油廠的線性程序來確定我們應該生產什麼，以及在淨回值或市場價值方面最有意義的生產。

So we'll continue to do that going forward.

所以我們今後會繼續這樣做。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

I think the first question is for Kevin and Mark here.

我認為第一個問題是針對凱文 (Kevin) 和馬克 (Mark) 的。

You said a reduction target of $17 billion.

您剛才說了減排目標是 170 億美元。

So that's about $5 billion lower than your current level.

所以這比你目前的水準低了約 50 億美元。

Meanwhile, that -- and you're saying that this is a priority.

同時，你說這是優先事項。

But meanwhile that you're also looking to grow your EBITDA and through perhaps some accretive bolt-on acquisition, like Epic, I think that is probably a good acquisition.

但同時，您也希望增加 EBITDA，並透過一些增值的附加收購，例如 Epic，我認為這可能是一次不錯的收購。

But on the other hand, you add to your leverage.

但另一方面，你也增加了自己的影響力。

So how -- I mean, how we prioritize between the two?

那麼，我的意思是，我們如何確定兩者之間的優先順序？

That should the debt reduction take a more priority until that you are at a lower level?

在債務水準降低之前，是否應該優先考慮減少債務？

Or do you think that, as I think Kevin in his prepared remarks saying, you actually feel already reasonably comfortable.

或者您是否認為，正如凱文在其準備好的演講中所說的那樣，您實際上已經感到相當舒適。

So if there's an inorganic opportunity, you think it's good that you will put it further delay on the debt reduction and go with that acquisition opportunity.

因此，如果存在無機機會，您認為最好進一步推遲減債並抓住收購機會。

Yes, Paul.

是的，保羅。

So just to be clear, the $17 billion debt level would be a $3 billion reduction from where we are.

因此需要明確的是，170 億美元的債務水準將比目前的水準減少 30 億美元。

I think you said $5 billion, it's $3 billion, which is still not insignificant.

我想你說的是 50 億美元，實際上是 30 億美元，這仍然不是小數目。

But that's how we are looking at this.

但我們就是這樣看待這個問題的。

And the reality is.

事實也是如此。

I'm sorry, but I'm including Epic.

很抱歉，但我包括了 Epic。

You're including the purchase of Epic.

其中包括購買 Epic。

Okay.

好的。

But you also have to look at we've also been selling assets.

但你也必須看看我們也一直在出售資產。

And so in January of this year, we've collected just north of $2 billion on proceeds from asset dispositions.

因此，今年 1 月，我們從資產處置中獲得了 20 億美元的收益。

We've talked about the jet retail assets in Germany and Austria that we are in active negotiations on.

我們已經討論過正在積極談判的德國和奧地利的噴射機零售資產。

And so there's more inflow than just thinking about the operating cash flow of the company.

因此，除了考慮公司的營運現金流之外，還有更多的流入。

So when you look at all these pieces together, we actually think we're going to have a fair amount of flexibility to be able to accomplish everything we want to do.

因此，當你將所有這些部分放在一起看時，我們實際上認為我們將擁有相當大的靈活性來完成我們想要做的一切。

Now granted, when I say a bolt-on, I naturally think of something that looks more like Pinnacle than Epic, and a $500 million acquisition or something like that is obviously a lot easier to digest than doing a string of $2 billion acquisitions.

現在，當我說附加功能時，我自然會想到一些更像 Pinnacle 而不是 Epic 的東西，而且 5 億美元的收購或類似的收購顯然比進行一系列 20 億美元的收購更容易接受。

In that instance, we'd have to think differently about capital allocation and balance sheet impacts.

在這種情況下，我們必須以不同的方式思考資本配置和資產負債表的影響。

But in overall terms, I think we've got a lot of flexibility to be able to accomplish what we want here.

但總體而言，我認為我們擁有很大的靈活性來實現我們的目標。

And I think Brian alluded to this earlier as well, as we get into the second half of this year, we become a lot more bullish on Refining margins and the Refining outlook, which will provide further boost on the operating cash flow side.

我認為布萊恩之前也提到過這一點，隨著進入今年下半年，我們對煉油利潤率和煉油前景更加看好，這將進一步提振營運現金流。

And there's not a -- we would love to get to $17 billion of debt by the end of this year. but that's not a must-have.

我們希望在今年年底前達到 170 億美元的債務。但這不是必要的。

We still have some degrees of flexibility around that in terms of how we look at it.

就我們如何看待這個問題而言，我們仍然具有一定程度的靈活性。

Yes, Paul, the growth in EBITDA is not premised on any bolt-on acquisitions.

是的，保羅，EBITDA 的成長並不依賴任何附加收購。

That $1 billion increment in Midstream and Chemicals is organic, and about half of it would be from the CPChem growth projects that are outside of our capital budget.

中游和化學品業務的 10 億美元增量是有機的，其中約一半來自超出我們資本預算的 CPChem 成長項目。

And so the other half is in Don's business primarily, growing the midstream business organically.

另一半則主要投入唐恩的業務，有機地發展中游業務。

And it's all within the $2 billion-ish kind of capital budget that we're projecting.

這一切都在我們預計的 20 億美元左右的資本預算之內。

I fully understand on that.

我完全理解這一點。

I'm just trying to get some better understanding, if you do deal with, say, $2 billion or $3 billion of acquisition opportunity, and you think that it's actually quite accretive, comparing to the objective of deleveraging, I mean how at that point that you will consider or which is going to take the priority?

我只是想更好地理解一下，如果你確實處理了20 億美元或30 億美元的收購機會，並且你認為與去槓桿的目標相比，這實際上是相當有增值的，我的意思是，那時您會考慮哪一個或優先考慮哪一個？

Yes, we'll make that -- if we're faced with that kind of opportunity, we'll make our own assessment on what's -- how we need to think about that from a balance sheet and a funding standpoint.

是的，我們會這樣做——如果我們面臨這樣的機會，我們會從資產負債表和融資的角度對我們需要如何考慮這一點做出自己的評估。

I wouldn't -- we wouldn't be incapable of executing on a transaction like that.

我不會——我們不會無法執行這樣的交易。

We would have the flexibility to be able to execute.

我們將具有執行的靈活性。

We may have to relook at other priorities, but we would deal with that at the time.

我們可能必須重新考慮其他優先事項，但我們會在那時處理這些問題。

Okay.

好的。

Kevin, second one is a real short one.

凱文，第二個真的很短。

We see still a bit of the uncertainty on PTC in the first quarter for your RD business.

我們認為第一季 PTC 的研發業務仍存在一些不確定性。

Do you think you will start recording some of the benefit related to PTC or that you're not going to report any PTC credits until you are 100% certain on everything?

您是否認為您會開始記錄一些與 PTC 相關的收益，或者在您 100% 確定所有事情之前您不會報告任何 PTC 信用？

Yes.

是的。

Paul, the only thing I can say with certainty is there's a lot of uncertainty, as you highlighted.

保羅，我唯一可以肯定地說的是，正如你所強調的那樣，存在著許多不確定性。

The reality is what we have on PTC are notices, not proposed rules.

實際情況是，我們對 PTC 發布的只是通知，而不是擬議的規則。

There have also been these sweeping executive orders that have put a pause on many forms of rulemaking.

還有一些全面的行政命令暫停了許多形式的規則制定。

We don't know if what's been published on PTC is subject to these executive orders or not.

我們不知道 PTC 上發布的內容是否受這些行政命令的約束。

And so we're still working through all this.

所以我們仍在努力解決這一切。

The reality is we'll have two options here.

事實上我們有兩個選擇。

One is we just don't record anything in the first quarter or until there's more clarity.

一是，我們在第一季或直到情況更加明朗之前，不會記錄任何內容。

The other is we go with the information that is available, which are these notices and the provisions that are provided in those.

另一個是我們根據現有的信息，即這些通知以及其中的規定。

And this is something that we'll work through over the course of the first quarter.

我們會在第一季努力解決這個問題。

I wish I could provide more clarity.

我希望我能夠提供更清晰的解釋。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Maybe a couple of quick ones.

也許是幾個簡單的。

I appreciate the comments you gave on Refining capture in the fourth quarter, which is really strong.

我很欣賞您對第四季度煉油捕獲量所做的評論，這確實很強勁。

Any comments on how you would see in the early part of this year the outlook, any moving pieces that might drive capture rate higher or lower on the Refining side?

您對於今年年初的前景有何看法，有哪些因素可能會導致煉油方面的捕獲率上升或下降？

And then maybe just as part of the business transformation process, curious as to where you think you are in terms of progress on the commercial side of things.

然後可能只是作為業務轉型過程的一部分，好奇您認為您在商業方面取得了什麼進展。

Yes, on the Refining capture rate, of course, we have some turnarounds that we've indicated in there.

是的，關於煉油捕獲率，我們當然已經指出了一些轉變。

So that will certainly have an impact in those markets that those turnarounds are occurring.

所以這肯定會對那些出現轉變的市場產生影響。

Overall, in the fourth quarter, we saw a benefit from the seasonal butane blending.

總體而言，在第四季度，我們看到了季節性丁烷混合帶來的好處。

That will continue through the first quarter as well.

這一趨勢也將持續整個第一季。

So that impact should be there.

所以這種影響是應該存在的。

And then the balance is really reflected in our regional indicators that are put out there on the IR website.

然後，這種平衡實際上就反映在了我們在 IR 網站上發布的區域指標中。

So I'd encourage you to run those, Ryan, if you haven't run those or seen those.

因此，Ryan，如果你還沒有運行過或看過這些，我鼓勵你運行它們。

But that will really give you a good insight as to how the market viewed us.

但這確實能讓你深入了解市場如何看待我們。

The 83% or low 80s utilization is also going to have an impact.

83% 或 80% 以下的利用率也會產生影響。

Right, that's associated with the turnaround.

沒錯，這與轉變有關。

Right.

正確的。

That's correct.

沒錯。

(technial difficulty) We had a goal to grow the organization.

（技術難題）我們的目標是發展組織。

We continue to look at opportunities to grow the organization.

我們將繼續尋找發展組織的機會。

We're hiring from the outside.

我們正在從外部招募。

We're building a lot more expertise.

我們正在累積更多的專業知識。

And so we continue to look at margin opportunities.

因此，我們繼續尋找利潤機會。

We look at cost-cutting opportunities as well.

我們也在尋找削減成本的機會。

We'll continue to do that, and as we grow our returns in our business and continue to grow the size of our business.

我們將繼續這樣做，同時不斷提高我們業務的回報並擴大我們業務的規模。

This concludes the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Mark Lashier for closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給馬克·拉希爾，請他作最後評論。

Thanks for all your questions.

感謝您提出的所有問題。

We've ticked off our strategic priorities from Investor Day 2022.

我們已經確定了 2022 年投資者日的策略重點。

And with our new 2025 to 2027 priorities, we remain steadfast in pursuing operational excellence with a competitive cost structure and enhancing shareholder value.

透過我們新的 2025 年至 2027 年工作重點，我們將繼續堅定不移地追求卓越營運、具有競爭力的成本結構並提高股東價值。

We're growing the Midstream business to $4 billion of stable mid-cycle EBITDA with the anticipated close of Epic later this year.

隨著 Epic 預計在今年稍後完成收購，我們將把中游業務成長至 40 億美元的穩定中期 EBITDA。

And we have plans in place to add $1 billion in total mid-cycle EBITDA in Midstream and Chemicals by 2027.

我們計劃在 2027 年將中游和化學領域的中期 EBITDA 總值增加 10 億美元。

We're continuing to make investments to enhance clean product yield and reliability in Refining.

我們將繼續投資以提高煉油過程中清潔產品的產量和可靠性。

Our assets are ready to capture the upside as the market returns.

隨著市場回暖，我們的資產已準備好迎接上漲。

The stable cash generation for Midstream covers the company's sustaining capital and dividends.

Midstream 穩定的現金產生涵蓋了公司的持續資本和股利。

Combined with $2 billion of expected earnings from our Marketing and Specialties business, we have a strong base before adding contributions from our other segments.

加上我們行銷和專業業務預計的 20 億美元收益，在加上其他部門的貢獻之前，我們擁有強大的基礎。

The power of integration provides a unique, compelling investment opportunity.

整合的力量提供了獨特的、引人注目的投資機會。

We will reward shareholders now and in the future as we move forward with our vision to be the leading integrated downstream energy provider.

我們將在現在和將來回報股東，並繼續努力實現成為領先的綜合下游能源供應商的願景。

Thank you for your interest in Phillips 66.

感謝您對 Phillips 66 的關注。

If you have questions after today's call, please call Jeff or Owen.

如果您在今天的通話後有任何問題，請致電 Jeff 或 Owen。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

感謝大家今天的參與。

This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

我們的通話到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。