菲利普斯66 (PSX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the third-quarter 2024 Phillips 66 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Phillips 66 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

My name is Emily, and I'll be your operator for today's call.

我叫艾米麗，我將擔任您今天通話的接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the call over to Jeff Dietert, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Dietert。

Jeff, you may begin.

傑夫，你可以開始了。

Welcome to Phillips 66 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Phillips 66 財報電話會議。

Participants on today's call will include Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO; Kevin Mitchell, CFO; Don Baldridge, Midstream and Chemicals; Rich Harbison, Refining; and Brian Mandell, Marketing and Commercial.

今天電話會議的參與者包括董事長兼執行長 Mark Lashier；凱文‧米切爾，財務長； Don Baldridge，中游和化學品公司；里奇·哈比森，精煉；和布萊恩·曼德爾（Brian Mandell），行銷和商業。

Today's presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Phillips 66 website, along with supplemental financial and operating information.

今天的簡報以及補充財務和營運資訊可以在 Phillips 66 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Slide 2 contains our safe harbor statement.

投影片 2 包含我們的安全港聲明。

We will be making forward-looking statements during today's call.

我們將在今天的電話會議中發表前瞻性聲明。

Actual results may differ materially from today's comments.

實際結果可能與今天的評論有重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here as well as in our SEC filings.

可能導致實際結果不同的因素包含在此以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

這樣，我會將電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Welcome everyone to our third-quarter earnings call.

歡迎大家參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

The strength of our results in a challenging refining market demonstrates the benefits of our differentiated downstream portfolio.

我們在充滿挑戰的煉油市場中取得的強勁業績證明了我們差異化的下游產品組合的優勢。

During the quarter, we continued to execute on our strategic priorities and delivered strong operating performance.

本季度，我們繼續執行我們的策略重點並取得了強勁的經營業績。

Since July 2022, we have returned $12.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

自 2022 年 7 月以來，我們已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 125 億美元。

We're approaching our $13 billion to $15 billion target.

我們正在接近 130 億至 150 億美元的目標。

In refining, we reduced our cost by $1 dollar per barrel, and we continued to run our system well.

在煉油方面，我們將每桶成本降低了 1 美元，並且我們的系統繼續運作良好。

The improvement in clean product yield reflects our investments in high-return, low-capital projects.

清潔產品產量的提高反映了我們對高回報、低資本項目的投資。

We continue to evaluate all of our assets as part of our strategic priorities and ongoing portfolio optimization.

我們將繼續評估我們的所有資產，作為我們策略重點和持續投資組合優化的一部分。

We recently agreed to sell our 49% interest in a Switzerland-based retail joint venture for approximately $1.24 billion.

我們最近同意以約 12.4 億美元的價格出售我們在瑞士零售合資企業中 49% 的權益。

Our asset dispositions are now expected to exceed the $3 billion target.

我們的資產處置目前預計將超過 30 億美元的目標。

We plan to use the cash proceeds to support our strategic priorities, including returns to shareholders and debt reduction.

我們計劃使用現金收益來支持我們的策略重點，包括股東回報和債務削減。

During the quarter, we achieved the targets on two of the six priorities ahead of schedule.

本季度，我們提前實現了六項優先事項中兩項的目標。

First, we have accomplished our $1.4 billion business transformation cost reduction target.

首先，我們完成了 14 億美元的業務轉型成本削減目標。

We've driven a permanent shift in the way we work, and we remain diligent with a culture of continuous improvement.

我們推動了工作方式的永久性轉變，並且我們繼續努力創造持續改進的文化。

Our employees have done an incredible job delivering on this commitment.

我們的員工為兌現這項承諾做出了令人難以置信的工作。

And the results are clear, as Kevin will cover later.

結果很明顯，凱文稍後將介紹。

Secondly, we achieved our $400 million synergy target across our NGL wellhead-to-market value chain.

其次，我們在 NGL 井口到市場價值鏈中實現了 4 億美元的協同目標。

This brings the total uplift in mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA to $1.4 billion from acquiring and successfully integrating DCP Midstream.

透過收購並成功整合 DCP Midstream，週期中期調整後的 EBITDA 總額將增加至 14 億美元。

Slide 4 shows the growth of our midstream business.

幻燈片 4 顯示了我們中游業務的成長。

We have advanced our wellhead-to-market strategy through organic projects and strategic transactions that provided significant synergies and strong returns.

我們透過有機專案和策略交易推進了井口市場策略，提供了顯著的協同效應和豐厚的回報。

Our Sweeny hub became the second largest NGL fractionation hub in the US, with the completion of Frac 4 in 2022.

隨著 Frac 4 於 2022 年竣工，我們的 Sweeny 中心成為美國第二大 NGL 分餾中心。

The DCP transactions strengthen this competitive position by fully integrating our value chain.

DCP 交易透過充分整合我們的價值鏈來增強這一競爭地位。

In the third quarter of 2024, we further expanded the business with the acquisition of Pinnacle Midstream.

2024年第三季度，我們透過收購Pinnacle Midstream進一步擴大業務。

We also approved the construction of an adjacent processing plant with startup expected in mid-2025.

我們也批准建造鄰近的加工廠，預計於 2025 年中期啟動。

On a trailing 12-month basis, midstream's adjusted EBITDA has increased to $3.7 billion from $2.1 billion three years ago.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，中游的調整後 EBITDA 已從三年前的 21 億美元增加到 37 億美元。

In addition, midstream adjusted EBITDA is ahead of 2024 guidance despite weaker natural gas and NGL prices.

此外，儘管天然氣和液化天然氣價格疲軟，但中游調整後的 EBITDA 仍領先 2024 年指引。

The stable cash generation from this business covers the company's dividend and our sustaining capital.

該業務產生的穩定現金覆蓋了公司的股息和我們的維持資本。

We continue to high grade our portfolio and capitalize on our growth platform to generate strong returns and significant free cash flow.

我們繼續對我們的投資組合進行高評級，並利用我們的成長平台來產生強勁的回報和大量的自由現金流。

Before I wrap up my opening comments, I want to acknowledge our previously announced plans to cease operations at the Los Angeles Refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025.

在結束我的開場白之前，我想確認我們之前宣布的計劃將於 2025 年第四季停止洛杉磯煉油廠的營運。

The uncertainty of the long-term sustainability of the refinery and market dynamics were key factors in this decision.

煉油廠長期可持續性和市場動態的不確定性是做出這項決定的關鍵因素。

We are evaluating the future use of the property, and we work with the state of California to continue to supply transportation fuels to meet customer demand.

我們正在評估該財產的未來用途，並與加州合作，繼續供應運輸燃料，以滿足客戶需求。

As we work towards decommissioning, we're grateful for our employees' continued focus on safety and operating excellence.

在我們努力退役時，我們感謝員工持續專注於安全和卓越營運。

We are committed to treating all of our employees and contractors fairly and respectfully throughout the process.

我們致力於在整個過程中公平和尊重地對待所有員工和承包商。

We continue to deliver on our strategic priorities and targets.

我們繼續實現我們的戰略重點和目標。

I look forward to providing an update on the next earnings call.

我期待在下次財報電話會議上提供最新情況。

Now, over to Kevin.

現在，輪到凱文了。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Slide 5 provides cost detail at the total company level through the end of the third quarter compared to the same period of 2022.

投影片 5 提供了截至第三季末與 2022 年同期相比的整個公司層面的成本詳細資訊。

We have supported growth while mitigating inflationary impacts through business transformation and synergy capture.

我們透過業務轉型和獲取協同效應來支持成長，同時減輕通膨影響。

Through the first nine months of the year, we have realized approximately $700 million in cost reductions, including our share of WRB costs.

今年前 9 個月，我們已實現約 7 億美元的成本削減，其中包括我們分擔的 WRB 成本。

In addition, we have reduced logistics spend by $200 million.

此外，我們也減少了 2 億美元的物流支出。

These costs flow through gross margin.

這些成本透過毛利率流動。

We lowered sustaining capital spend and continue to prioritize safe and reliable operations.

我們降低了持續性資本支出，並繼續優先考慮安全可靠的營運。

Slide 6 shows the business transformation reduction to refining cost per barrel.

幻燈片 6 顯示了業務轉型對每桶煉油成本的降低。

Adjusted controllable costs, excluding turnarounds, are $5.84 per barrel year to date.

調整後的可控成本（不包括週轉成本）為每桶 5.84 美元。

We have eliminated $1 per barrel of costs, achieving our target ahead of schedule.

我們已經消除了每桶 1 美元的成本，提前實現了我們的目標。

Slide 7 covers key financial metrics.

幻燈片 7 涵蓋了關鍵財務指標。

Earnings were $346 million.

獲利為 3.46 億美元。

Adjusted earnings were $859 million or $2.04 per share.

調整後收益為 8.59 億美元，即每股 2.04 美元。

The adjusted results exclude special items which include a legal accrual in the third quarter.

調整後的業績不包括特殊項目，其中包括第三季的法定應計費用。

We generated operating cash flow of $1.1 billion and returned $1.3 billion to shareholders.

我們產生了 11 億美元的營運現金流，並向股東返還了 13 億美元。

I will now move to slide 8 to cover the segment results.

我現在將轉到投影片 8 以介紹各部分的結果。

Adjusted earnings decreased $125 million compared to the prior quarter.

調整後收益較上一季減少 1.25 億美元。

Midstream results decreased mostly due to seasonal maintenance costs and lower equity earnings, reflecting the sale of our interest in the Rockies Express Pipeline.

中游績效下降主要是因為季節性維護成本和股本收益下降，反映出我們出售了洛磯山脈快速管道的權益。

These decreases were partially offset by higher margins on LPG exports.

這些下降被液化石油氣出口利潤率的增加部分抵消。

In chemicals, results increased mainly due to higher polyethylene chain margins and lower costs.

在化學品領域，業績成長主要得益於聚乙烯鏈利潤率的提高和成本的降低。

Lower refining results primarily reflect weaker crack spreads.

較低的精煉結果主要反映了裂紋擴展較弱。

Capture of the new indicator was 92% in line with the previous quarter.

新指標的捕獲率為 92%，與上一季持平。

In addition, the plan to cease operations at our Los Angeles Refinery resulted in the acceleration of depreciation.

此外，我們的洛杉磯煉油廠計劃停止營運導致折舊加速。

The impact in the third quarter was $25 million.

第三季的影響為 2500 萬美元。

Going forward, we expect approximately $230 million per quarter of additional depreciation through the fourth quarter of 2025.

展望未來，我們預計到 2025 年第四季度，每季的額外折舊約為 2.3 億美元。

Marketing and specialties results were higher, mostly due to seasonally stronger margins.

行銷和特種產品業績較高，主要是因為季節性利潤率較高。

In renewable fuels, results decreased due to lower realized margins.

在再生燃料方面，由於實現利潤率較低，業績有所下降。

The Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex produced 44,000 barrels per day of renewable fuels during the third quarter.

Rodeo 再生能源綜合體第三季每天生產 44,000 桶再生燃料。

Slide 9 shows the change in cash flow.

幻燈片 9 顯示了現金流量的變化。

Cash from operations, excluding working capital, was $1.5 billion supported by the stability of our midstream and marketing and specialties businesses.

來自營運的現金（不包括營運資金）為 15 億美元，這得益於我們中游、行銷和專業業務的穩定性。

Working capital was a use of $381 million, mainly reflecting the impact of falling commodity prices.

營運資金使用3.81億美元，主要反映大宗商品價格下跌的影響。

In July, we acquired the nickel midstream for $567 million.

7月，我們以5.67億美元收購了中游鎳礦。

Also during the quarter, we received cash proceeds of approximately $200 million from the sale of non-core midstream assets.

同樣在本季度，我們透過出售非核心中游資產獲得了約 2 億美元的現金收益。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, in chemicals, we expect the global O&P utilization rate to be in the mid-90%s. In refining, we expect the worldwide crude utilization rate to be in the low- to mid-90%s and turnaround expense to be between $125 million and $135 million.

展望第四季度，在化學品領域，我們預期全球O&P利用率將在90%左右。在煉油方面，我們預計全球原油利用率將在 90% 左右，週轉費用將在 1.25 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間。

Full-year turnaround expense is now expected to be $485 million to $495 million.

目前預計全年週轉費用為 4.85 億至 4.95 億美元。

This is a reduction of more than $100 million from our original guidance.

這比我們最初的指導減少了 1 億多美元。

We anticipate corporate and other costs to come in between $300 million and $330 million.

我們預計企業成本和其他成本將在 3 億至 3.3 億美元之間。

Now, we will open the line for questions, after which Mark will wrap up the call.

現在，我們將打開提問熱線，之後馬克將結束通話。

(Operator Instructions) John Royall, JP Morgan.

（操作員說明）John Royall，JP Morgan。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So my first question is just on your decision to shutter your remaining conventional capacity in California.

所以我的第一個問題是關於你們決定關閉加州剩餘的常規產能。

Can you just talk about what went into that decision and how much the recent regulatory changes play into that decision?

您能否談談該決定的具體內容以及最近的監管變化對該決定的影響有多大？

Or was this something that you had planned even [ask] of that?

或者這是你已經計劃好的事情（甚至[詢問]）？

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, John.

早安，約翰。

As we've stated in our strategic priorities that we will do an ongoing evaluation of all of our assets.

正如我們在策略重點中所述，我們將對所有資產進行持續評估。

And so the LA decision really was part of that.

所以洛杉磯的決定確實是其中的一部分。

And the Los Angeles Refinery has been under significant market pressure.

洛杉磯煉油廠一直承受著巨大的市場壓力。

And the refinery, if you think back historically, it was originally designed to process in-state California crude production.

而煉油廠，如果你回顧歷史，它最初是為了加工加州州內的原油生產而設計的。

And that's declined by about 75%.

下降了約 75%。

So the continued outlook in California in the face of declining diesel and gasoline demand was a pretty tough one.

因此，面對柴油和汽油需求下降，加州的持續前景相當艱難。

And so when we took that, given outlook for the market and also factor in California's stated policy to move away from fossil fuels, we expected California to be a pretty challenging refining market, going forward.

因此，當我們考慮到市場前景並考慮到加州明確的擺脫化石燃料的政策時，我們預計加州未來將是一個相當具有挑戰性的煉油市場。

And we also have the typical maintenance and regulatory spending that we face, and that's only going up.

我們也面臨典型的維護和監管支出，而且這種支出只會增加。

And so there are a lot of factors that go into these decisions and these decisions are only made after we do an exhaustive review of all the alternatives.

因此，這些決定會受到許多因素的影響，而這些決定只有在我們對所有替代方案進行詳盡審查之後才會做出。

And that exhaustive review led us to idle the refinery as we announced earlier this month.

正如我們本月初宣布的那樣，這項詳盡的審查導致我們閒置了煉油廠。

And so it wasn't any knee jerk reaction in the face of any policy changes in California.

因此，面對加州的任何政策變化，這並不是任何下意識的反應。

This has been a long-term analysis.

這是一個長期的分析。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

And then my follow up on the balance sheet and maybe you could just talk about your outlook for the balance sheet and perhaps where you think you could finish the year on leverage following the sale of the Swiss business and potentially the Germany and Austria business and recognizing there are a lot of moving pieces around working capital and some other things, but just any guidance on where you could finish the year on the balance sheet.

然後是我對資產負債表的跟進，也許你可以談談你對資產負債表的展望，也許你可以談談在出售瑞士業務以及可能的德國和奧地利業務後你認為今年的槓桿率可以達到什麼水平，並認識到關於營運資本和其他一些事情有很多變化，但只是關於您可以在資產負債表上完成這一年的任何指導。

Yeah, John.

是的，約翰。

It's Kevin.

是凱文。

So certainly, expect to finish the year with a stronger cash or net debt position than where we are currently.

因此，可以肯定的是，預計今年結束時現金或淨債務狀況將比目前更強。

And that will be partly reflected by proceeds from asset dispositions.

這將部分反映在資產處置收益中。

But the bulk of that is going to be 2025.

但其中大部分將在 2025 年實現。

So we expect the Swiss business -- that transaction to close in the first quarter of next year.

因此，我們預計瑞士業務—該交易將在明年第一季完成。

And the Germany, Austria retail business, we're still in active negotiations around that.

至於德國、奧地利的零售業務，我們仍在圍繞這個問題進行積極的談判。

And so that will be a 2025 item as well.

所以這也將是 2025 年的專案。

But nonetheless, the proceeds from dispositions give us a lot more added flexibility as we think about balance sheet priorities, continuing to return cash to shareholders, and also, investment in the business.

但儘管如此，當我們考慮資產負債表的優先事項、繼續向股東返還現金以及對業務的投資時，處置收益為我們提供了更多的靈活性。

And just as a reminder from a capital allocation standpoint, the first priority is sustaining capital.

從資本配置的角度來看，首要任務是維持資本。

That's about $1 billion per year.

這相當於每年約 10 億美元。

The second priority is the dividend.

第二要務是股利。

That's approximately $2 billion per year.

這大約是每年 20 億美元。

And everything after that is available for investing in the company in growth, returning cash to shareholders, of which the dividend obviously is a part of that, but share repurchases, and then the balance sheet and debt reduction.

此後的一切都可以用於投資公司的成長，向股東返還現金，其中股息顯然是其中的一部分，但股票回購，然後是資產負債表和債務削減。

So we're a bit off of our target leverage metric and we expect to get closer to that.

因此，我們距離目標槓桿指標有點偏離，我們預期會更接近這個目標。

It'll take a little while when you look at the different components of the debt and the equity on that.

當您查看債務及其權益的不同組成部分時，需要一些時間。

But we expect to be moving our way towards that objective.

但我們希望朝著這個目標邁進。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Kevin, two questions for you here.

凱文，這裡有兩個問題想問你。

I'll just throw them together.

我會把它們放在一起。

One is we think about the stated savings, the $1.4 billion on the synergies -- I'm sorry, on the overall cost reduction plan, the $0.4 billion from the synergies with DCP, offset by the inflation that's in slides 5 and 6, I think, which it sounds like you're using a standard CPI there.

一是我們考慮所說的節省，協同效應帶來的14 億美元——抱歉，在總體成本削減計劃中，與DCP 的協同效應帶來的4 億美元，被幻燈片5 和6 中的通貨膨脹所抵消，我想想看，這聽起來像是您正在使用標準 CPI。

I just would like to maybe dig into a little bit of how do we look at those two moving parts, one, you know, pretty substantial savings; two, inflation that's out there.

我只是想深入探討我們如何看待這兩個活動部分，其中一個，你知道，可以節省相當可觀的成本；第二，通貨膨脹。

You mentioned it comes out of the operating costs, but those can also be impacted by seasonality, by maintenance, and so forth.

您提到它來自營運成本，但這些成本也可能受到季節性、維護等的影響。

But how we should really look at that on a net basis and what's maybe inflationary pressure, going forward?

但我們應該如何在淨值基礎上真正看待這個問題以及未來的通膨壓力可能是什麼？

Yeah, I think, as you look at that and as you point out, we highlighted the inflationary impact.

是的，我認為，正如你所看到的那樣，正如你所指出的，我們強調了通貨膨脹的影響。

We also highlight the market impact.

我們也強調了市場影響。

And you could say those are two versions of similar factors.

你可以說這是兩個相似因素的版本。

They're market driven.

他們是市場驅動的。

They're outside of our control.

他們不在我們的控制範圍內。

One of them has been a headwind for the last couple of years.

其中之一在過去幾年一直是個逆風。

The other one has been a tailwind for us with lower natural gas prices primarily.

另一項對我們來說是順風車，主要是天然氣價格下降。

And so what we're trying to focus on is you would expect there are those things that are directly within our control and that's reflected in that cost reduction bar on the chart.

因此，我們想要關注的是，您會期望有一些事情直接在我們的控制範圍內，並且反映在圖表上的成本削減條中。

On market, I wouldn't be completely dismissive of that being outside of our control because we are also, as part of our cost reduction initiatives, focused on energy reduction in terms of -- from a volume quantity standpoint.

在市場上，我不會完全忽視這種超出我們控制範圍的情況，因為作為我們降低成本計劃的一部分，我們也從數量的角度關注能源減少。

And so that is something that we're very focused on as well.

這也是我們非常關注的事情。

It's also consistent with our environmental GHG objectives around that.

這也符合我們的環境溫室氣體目標。

But on a go-forward basis, I think the worst of the inflationary pressures are behind us.

但從長遠來看，我認為最嚴重的通膨壓力已經過去。

And we'd expect that that has somewhat normalized on a go-forward basis.

我們預計這種情況在未來會有所正常化。

So lesser headwinds than we have experienced over the last couple of years.

因此，與我們過去幾年經歷的阻力相比，阻力要小一些。

And then just as a follow up on that, the $100 million reduction in the turnaround costs, is any of that related to the issue -- the shut down or is that just outperformance during the year?

然後，作為後續行動，週轉成本減少了 1 億美元，這是否與該問題有關 - 關閉還是只是在這一年中表現出色？

Hey, Roger.

嘿，羅傑。

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

There's really two key factors in that $100 million reduction in our outlook.

我們的前景下調 1 億美元實際上有兩個關鍵因素。

Half of it's attributed to this enhanced inspection process that we've been putting in place over the last several years.

其中一半歸功於我們在過去幾年實施的密集檢查流程。

It's allowed us to actually extend the intervals between turnarounds.

它使我們能夠真正延長週轉之間的間隔。

So some of that data was coming in this year on some planned turnarounds.

因此，其中一些數據是在今年的一些計劃週轉中出現的。

And after we had a chance to evaluate it, we were able to defer those turnarounds.

在我們有機會對其進行評估後，我們能夠推遲這些週轉。

That's roughly half of that $100 million.

這大約是這 1 億美元的一半。

And the other half of the $100 million is the organization's execution of the work.

1 億美元的另一半用於組織的工作執行。

They've actually -- we've actually gotten much more efficient at our execution through a number of initiatives that we put in place with the turnarounds.

事實上，透過我們在周轉過程中實施的一系列舉措，我們的執行效率實際上提高了很多。

And we're seeing the fruits of that labor come through now.

我們現在看到了勞動成果。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛。

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, team.

早上好，團隊。

I just want to follow up on the comments around balance sheet and capital allocation.

我只想跟進有關資產負債表和資本配置的評論。

And you guys have made a tremendous amount of progress in returning capital to shareholders via buyback and dividends.

你們在透過回購和股利向股東返還資本方面取得了巨大進展。

But how do you think about the pace of that going forward and what appears to be a softer commodity environment?

但您如何看待未來的步伐以及看似疲軟的商品環境？

Yeah, Neil.

是的，尼爾。

It's -- for the last 1.5 year or longer, we have been very focused on the commitment that we put out there, the $13 billion to $15 billion, target, and that has somewhat informed our decisions around the pace of buybacks.

在過去 1.5 年或更長時間裡，我們一直非常關注我們所做的承諾，即 130 億至 150 億美元的目標，這在一定程度上影響了我們關於回購步伐的決策。

As we get to the end of that, I think we will move to more of a in excess of 50% of operating cash flow being the return to shareholder metric.

當我們結束時，我認為我們將把超過 50% 的經營現金流作為股東回報指標。

We talked about that, I think, on the last call that the go-forward assumption around this is 50% or more of cash from operations being returned to shareholders.

我認為，我們在上次電話會議上討論過這一點，即圍繞此問題的未來假設是將營運中 50% 或更多的現金返還給股東。

I think that's a good way to think about this as you model out into 2025 from -- for that metric.

我認為，當您根據該指標對 2025 年進行建模時，這是考慮此問題的好方法。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, we saw a very solid strength in the chemicals business relative to some of your peers this quarter.

然後，本季我們看到化學品業務相對於一些同行具有非常強勁的實力。

And then marketing picked up.

然後行銷開始興起。

I would imagine some of that's just because crude softened at the end of the quarter.

我想其中一些只是因為原油價格在本季結束時走軟。

But can you talk about those two businesses and the outlook as we think about the sequential into fourth quarter and early next year?

但是，當我們考慮第四季度和明年初的連續情況時，您能談談這兩項業務和前景嗎？

Well, Neil, I'll take the chemicals side of that, and we've seen CPChem's performance strong.

好吧，尼爾，我會談談化學品方面，我們已經看到 CPChem 的表現強勁。

They're able to operate at high rates when others have had to cut back because of costs.

當其他公司因成本而不得不削減開支時，他們能夠以高效率運作。

I think that they don't have any operation or much operations exposure in Europe, which is beneficial and they've got their advantaged feedstock position, low-cost ethane in two locations in the world that they've really been able to lean into.

我認為他們在歐洲沒有任何業務或太多業務，這是有益的，而且他們在世界上兩個地方擁有有利的原料地位和低成本乙烷，他們確實能夠利用這些優勢。

You do see some seasonal softness coming in this time of year, which is pretty typical.

每年的這個時候，你確實會看到一些季節性的疲軟，這是非常典型的。

And that with lower crude prices makes Napa producers -- the floor a little bit impacted there as well.

隨著原油價格下跌，納帕生產商的下限也受到了一些影響。

But on the long term, we see continued improvement in the macro for chemicals.

但從長遠來看，我們看到化學品宏觀情勢持續改善。

They're coming out of that trough of a year or so ago, and they continue to make good progress.

他們正在走出大約一年前的低谷，並且繼續取得良好進展。

They continue to see demand from their perspective and their ability to capture the market increasing.

他們繼續從自己的角度看待需求，並不斷增強佔領市場的能力。

And we see that going forward.

我們看到了這一點。

Hey, Neil.

嘿，尼爾。

This is Brian on the marketing side.

這是行銷方面的布萊恩。

Q3 is typically marketing's strongest quarter.

第三季通常是行銷最強勁的季度。

And during the quarter, marketing had improved margins in the US across both wholesale and franchise channels driven, as you mentioned, by falling spot prices.

正如您所提到的，在本季度，由於現貨價格下跌，行銷在美國的批發和特許經營通路的利潤率都有所提高。

We also saw some stronger volumes.

我們還看到了一些強勁的成交量。

Additionally, in the lubricants business, base oil margins also improved with falling feedstock prices.

此外，在潤滑油業務中，基礎油利潤率也隨著原料​​價格下跌而改善。

But going forward, expectations for the M&S segment Q4 are just a seasonal pullback in earnings consistent with what we call mid-cycle Q4 earnings.

但展望未來，瑪莎百貨第四季的預期只是獲利的季節性回落，與我們所說的第四季中期獲利一致。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Good.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Maybe, one for me.

也許，一個適合我。

I guess, on the refining side, you've made a lot of progress in terms of reducing cost structure, improving reliability and utilization rate, and even improving capture rate of refining business.

我想，在煉油方面，你們在降低成本結構、提高可靠性和利用率、甚至提高煉油業務的捕獲率方面都取得了很大的進展。

But refining earnings are still struggling in the current environment.

但在當前環境下煉油盈利仍舉步維艱。

I mean, they're struggling for everybody.

我的意思是，他們正在為每個人而奮鬥。

But as you -- we're clearly below mid-cycle margins right now, but it still seems like you're a little away from achieving your target for the refining business even in a mid-cycle environment.

但對您來說，我們目前的利潤率顯然低於中期週期，但即使在中期環境下，您似乎仍距離煉油業務的目標還有一段距離。

I guess, any thoughts on where do you think you are in terms of progress there and what's still -- what should we still be looking for over the next 12 months in order to drive that the next leg of improvement and refining profitability?

我想，您認為您在這方面取得了哪些進展，以及仍然存在哪些問題 - 我們在未來 12 個月內仍應尋找什麼，以推動下一步的改進和提高盈利能力？

Yeah, Ryan.

是的，瑞安。

This is Mark.

這是馬克。

I'll just comment at a high level that I do believe that we're still on that journey.

我只是高水準地評論說，我確實相信我們仍在這段旅程中。

We've pretty dramatically increased or enhanced our cost position.

我們已經相當顯著地增加或增強了我們的成本狀況。

And we'll continue to do so.

我們將繼續這樣做。

We are focused on being competitive and continuing that journey.

我們專注於保持競爭力並繼續這趟旅程。

And we've also been very deliberate in just working away at these small projects that have quick payouts that enhance our ability to capture the market.

我們也非常謹慎地致力於這些小項目，這些項目可以快速獲得回報，從而增強我們佔領市場的能力。

And we've got -- our strategic priorities.

我們已經確定了我們的戰略重點。

We've got things that we see in '25, things that we see happening by '26.

我們已經看到了 25 年看到的事情，以及 26 年看到發生的事情。

And so we've got a long, a long list of things that we can continue to work away at in refining to enhance our competitive position and increase our ability to capture value from the marketplace.

因此，我們有一個很長的清單，我們可以繼續努力改進，以增強我們的競爭地位並提高我們從市場獲取價值的能力。

Yeah, so maybe I'll just add a little bit more color to that.

是的，所以也許我會為此添加更多顏色。

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

So we had three primary improvement focuses in refining.

因此，我們在精煉方面有三個主要的改進重點。

First is the cost reduction.

首先是成本降低。

And that's a slog, right?

這是一個艱難的過程，對吧？

It's getting in the mud pit, digging it out, and pulling out these expenses that are very sticky, takes a lot of organizational effort to do that.

它需要進入泥坑，將其挖出來，並取出這些非常黏性的費用，需要大量的組織努力才能做到這一點。

I'm very happy with the organization's performance on this.

我對該組織在這方面的表現感到非常滿意。

And we've exceeded our expectations, original expectations.

我們已經超越了我們的預期，最初的預期。

And now we've removed over $600 million of cost out of the cost profile for refining.

現在，我們已經從煉油成本中削減了超過 6 億美元的成本。

So we're not declaring infinite success with that.

所以我們並沒有宣稱這會取得無限的成功。

We will move to what I'll call a continuous improvement mode on the cost.

我們將轉向我所說的成本持續改進模式。

But I will shift the organization's attention now to the earnings per barrel focus here as we move into the future.

但隨著我們邁向未來，我現在將把組織的注意力轉移到每桶收益上。

And that is taking advantage of what Mark was talking about, which is the small capital projects with high return.

這就是利用馬克所說的，即高回報的小型資本項目。

And we'll continue to execute those.

我們將繼續執行這些措施。

We still have a laundry list of those projects to go.

我們還有一份待實施的項目清單。

But there's also efforts that we utilize our existing equipment and making sure that we're extracting the highest level of value out of that.

但我們也努力利用現有設備，確保從中獲得最高水準的價值。

We see some opportunities across the system.

我們在整個系統中看到了一些機會。

We're going to focus on that and continue to extract that value out.

我們將專注於此並繼續提取該價值。

And then of course, Brian's organization is working diligently.

當然，布萊恩的組織正在努力工作。

This integrated model that we have is really about extracting the value out of the entire value chain.

我們擁有的這種整合模型實際上是為了從整個價值鏈中提取價值。

And the commercial organization is the glue that keeps that together.

商業組織是將其結合在一起的黏合劑。

And we've got a lot of number of initiatives that we're working on that front.

我們在這方面正在採取很多措施。

You add all these up, they're well over a $1 billion of impact to our earnings at mid-cycle pricing.

將所有這些加起來，按中期定價計算，它們對我們收益的影響遠遠超過 10 億美元。

So I'm very confident that when we get to mid -- back to mid-cycle pricing scenarios that you'll see the performance of the refining organization hit the $4 billion to $5 billion range of earnings.

因此，我非常有信心，當我們回到中期定價方案時，您將看到煉油組織的表現達到 40 億至 50 億美元的收益範圍。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then maybe one more.

然後也許還有一個。

As we look at renewable diesel and we think about your -- the path to improvement there, can you maybe walk through how you think about the path to improvement in 2025 both in terms of the broader market and what are some of the levers or moving pieces you think drive improvement in terms of the macro backdrop?

當我們研究再生柴油並思考改進之路時，您能談談您如何看待 2025 年的改進之路，包括更廣泛的市場以及一些槓桿或移動因素嗎？ ？

And then maybe Rodeo specifically, what are the things that you're looking to do that will drive improvement in terms of the profitability there?

然後，也許特別是 Rodeo，您希望做哪些事情來推動那裡的盈利能力提高？

Sure.

當然。

This is Brian, Ryan.

這是布萊恩，瑞安。

Maybe to start where we are today, we're still in a startup mode for the renewable segment.

也許從我們今天所處的位置開始，我們仍處於再生能源領域的啟動模式。

So I think we've had some startup costs.

所以我認為我們有一些啟動成本。

We're also running a higher -- or lower CI but we're also running some higher CI now in Q4.

我們也運行了更高或更低的 CI，但我們現在在第四季度也運行了一些更高的 CI。

I think if you think about renewable diesel margins going into Q4 and beyond, we think margins are going to strengthen for a number of reasons.

我認為，如果考慮到第四季及以後的再生柴油利潤率，我們認為利潤率將會因多種原因而增強。

Feedstock prices remain depressed.

原料價格依然低迷。

There are a number of plans that continue to struggle.

有許多計劃仍在掙扎。

Some of the RD production is going to be converted into renewable jet production like some of our competitors on the Gulf Coast and we will do as well.

一些研發生產將轉變為可再生噴射機生產，就像我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的一些競爭對手一樣，我們也會這麼做。

There are less imports into the US.

美國的進口量減少。

Tighter West Coast car diesel market.

西岸汽車柴油市場趨緊。

With refinery production issues, we've even seen some renewable diesel from our competitors come from the Gulf Coast into the West Coast.

由於煉油廠生產問題，我們甚至看到競爭對手的一些再生柴油從墨西哥灣沿岸運往西海岸。

And then just the stronger credit markets with the tightening of those credit markets and the disincentivizing of biodiesel production.

然後，隨著信貸市場的收緊和生物柴油生產的抑制，信貸市場變得更加強勁。

So all those things together, I think, will drive renewable diesel margins stronger as we go forward.

因此，我認為，隨著我們的前進，所有這些因素加起來將推動再生柴油的利潤率變得更強。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

馬納夫古普塔，瑞銀集團。

Morning.

早晨。

I wanted to focus a little bit on your central corridor earnings.

我想稍微注意一下你們中央走廊的收入。

You were up $65 million quarter over quarter or 26% quarter over quarter.

您的季度環比增長了 6500 萬美元，即環比增長了 26%。

That is something we haven't seen in the MidCon region.

這是我們在 MidCon 地區從未見過的情況。

It's a very strong result.

這是一個非常有力的結果。

Help us understand what were the factors helping you out and we understand you have very good assets over there.

幫助我們了解是什麼因素幫助您擺脫困境，我們了解您在那裡擁有非常好的資產。

But generally, talk what really helped you out to deliver such a strong performance in central corridor?

但總的來說，談談是什麼真正幫助你在中央走廊取得如此出色的表現？

Hey, Manav.

嘿，馬納夫。

This is Rich.

這是里奇。

Thanks for pointing that out.

感謝您指出這一點。

We're very happy with the performance of the central corridor operation.

我們對中央走廊營運的表現非常滿意。

There's a couple of factors here that played into the outperform.

有幾個因素導致了其跑贏大盤。

One of the -- margins were higher, which increased mainly due to a favorable impact on our inventory hedges.

其中之一——利潤率較高，這主要是由於對我們的庫存對沖產生了有利影響。

So with the WTI price falling quarter over quarter, that hedge was a positive tailwind for us on that.

因此，隨著 WTI 價格逐季下跌，這種對沖對我們來說是一個積極的推動力。

We also had the benefits of the WCS heavy crude disks, which are included in our indicator.

我們也受惠於 WCS 重質原油盤的優勢，這些優勢已包含在我們的指標中。

But that benefit was also seen in the MidCon area as well.

但這種好處也體現在 MidCon 領域。

There was a 10% increase quarter over quarter in the cracks for the region.

該地區的裂縫季度較上季增加了 10%。

So we did see that a positive move there, and we did see lower product differentials though as a result of that as well.

因此，我們確實看到了那裡的積極舉措，而且我們也確實看到了產品差異較小的結果。

Our secondary products also played into this tailwind for the quarter.

我們的二級產品也為本季帶來了推動力。

We saw improved pricing in both the NGLs and the heavy intermediates.

我們看到液化天然氣和重質中間體的定價都有提高。

And this is all -- we all pull this all together really with very good operating performance for the region.

這就是全部 - 我們所有人都將這一切真正結合在一起，為該地區提供了非常好的營運表現。

We had 100% crude utilization and 89% clean product yields, which are two very, very good performances by the assets.

我們的原油利用率為 100%，清潔產品產量為 89%，這是資產的兩項非常非常好的表現。

Perfect.

完美的。

My quick follow up here is you are at $2.7 billion on asset sale of the $3 billion, but you still have a marketing package out there in Europe.

我的快速跟進是，在 30 億美元的資產出售中，您的資產價值為 27 億美元，但您在歐洲仍然有一個行銷方案。

So how should we think about asset sale proceeds for the next 9 or 12 months?

那麼我們該如何看待未來 9 或 12 個月的資產出售收益呢？

I think the way you should think about, Manav, is we -- it's part of that portfolio optimization.

馬納夫，我認為你應該考慮的是我們——這是投資組合優化的一部分。

It's ongoing.

它正在進行中。

We've defined what we think are non-core assets.

我們已經定義了我們認為的非核心資產。

And I would say that that $3 billion was considered as a floor that we would hit.

我想說，30 億美元被認為是我們將要達到的底線。

And we will continue to evaluate non-core assets and move forward with any dispositions that we view as favorable for us.

我們將繼續評估非核心資產，並推進我們認為對我們有利的任何處置。

Perfect.

完美的。

So $3 billion was the floor, not the target.

因此，30 億美元只是下限，而不是目標。

Sorry.

對不起。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Matthew Blair, Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

馬修布萊爾、都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。

Thank you and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

Your refining capture [filled] up pretty well in the third quarter at 92% versus 93% in Q2.

您的精煉捕獲率在第三季表現良好，達到 92%，而第二季為 93%。

Typically, in the fourth quarter, refiners see some tailwinds here just from things like lower -- or sorry, higher butane blending volumes.

通常情況下，在第四季度，煉油廠會看到一些有利因素，例如較低的丁烷混合量，或者抱歉，較高的丁烷混合量。

Could you talk about your expectations for capture in the fourth quarter?

您能談談您對第四季度捕獲量的預期嗎？

Do you think it's reasonable to expect a small improvement quarter by quarter or is it too early to say?

您認為預期逐季小幅改善是否合理，還是現在下結論還為時過早？

I think it's too early to say, Matthew, just one month into the quarter.

馬修，我認為現在說本季剛開始一個月還為時過早。

There's still opportunity for some, some volatility as we go through the end of the year.

隨著年底的到來，仍然存在一些波動的機會。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And then the West Coast seemed pretty challenging for Phillips.

然後西海岸對菲利普斯來說似乎相當具有挑戰性。

And some of your peers in the third quarter, I think, the capture fell to 63% versus strong levels in Q2.

我認為，與第二季的強勁水平相比，第三季的一些同業的捕獲率下降至 63%。

You obviously made a decision to close the Los Angeles Refinery.

您顯然決定關閉洛杉磯煉油廠。

Could you talk about the headwinds in the third quarter in the West Coast and whether there's been any improvement so far in the fourth quarter?

您能否談談西海岸第三季度的逆風以及第四季度到目前為止是否有任何改善？

Yeah, this is Rich.

是的，這是里奇。

I'll talk about some of the headwinds we saw on the West Coast.

我將談談我們在西海岸看到的一些不利因素。

There's a lot of moving parts, actually.

實際上有很多活動部件。

So primarily, we saw a weaker market cracks and weaker feedstock advantages.

因此，我們首先看到市場裂縫減弱和原料優勢減弱。

So those were both the keys to driving lower earnings in that that region.

因此，這些都是導致該地區收入下降的關鍵。

Margins decreased with our West coast indicator falling about 46%.

利潤率下降，我們的西海岸指標下降了約 46%。

So you saw that if you're tracking along on our indicator, those were primarily driven by Portland and Los Angeles gasoline cracks.

所以你會發現，如果你追蹤我們的指標，這些主要是由波特蘭和洛杉磯的汽油裂縫所驅動的。

Crude deliveries also played into this as well.

原油交割也起了一定作用。

There was a prior month injection of crude delivered by pipeline coming out of the north from Canada.

上個月，透過管道從加拿大北部注入了原油。

And in a declining price environment, we also see -- we see an impact in that as well versus the benchmark.

在價格下降的環境中，我們也看到了與基準相比的影響。

Secondary product impacts primarily related to heavy intermediate drawdown of inventory.

次級產品的影響主要與中間庫存的大幅減少有關。

In the second quarter, we built heavy intermediate inventories as a result of maintenance activity at both Los Angeles and Ferndale.

在第二季度，由於洛杉磯和芬代爾的維護活動，我們建立了大量的中間庫存。

And then, the drawdown actually occurred in the third quarter and that happened to occur in a declining price environment as well impacting the market capture.

然後，資金回撤實際上發生在第三季度，而且發生在價格下跌的環境中，也影響了市場佔有率。

We are also experiencing some continuing costs associated with the wind down of the Rodeo crude operation.

我們也面臨著與 Rodeo 原油業務關閉相關的一些持續成本。

Don't want to forget about that.

不想忘記這一點。

We expect the majority of this work to be complete by year end as we prepare a number of the assets for demolition.

我們預計大部分工作將在年底前完成，因為我們正在準備拆除一些資產。

The demolition costs are currently reserved in our [ARL] but that cost to prepare for that demolition is something that we'll see ongoing through the end of this year.

拆除費用目前已保留在我們的 [ARL] 中，但準備拆​​除的費用將持續到今年年底。

And as Kevin indicated in his recap earlier, there was a couple of entries into the quarter that impacted earnings as well from LAR announcement to idle operations.

正如 Kevin 在早些時候的回顧中指出的那樣，本季度有幾個項目也影響了收益，從 LAR 公告到閒置營運。

One is the accelerated depreciation that $25 million in the quarter and the other was a special item of $41 million, recognizing some benefit obligations associated with that announcement.

一個是本季 2500 萬美元的加速折舊，另一個是 4100 萬美元的特殊項目，承認與該公告相關的一些福利義務。

That all said, the assets actually operated well for the quarter.

話雖如此，該季度的資產實際上運作良好。

A 93% clean product yield and a 94% crude utilization for the assets, so primarily market-driven factors there.

清潔產品產量為 93%，資產原油利用率為 94%，因此主要是市場驅動因素。

Jason Gableman, TD Cowen.

賈森·蓋博曼，TD·考恩。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask first on the refining business.

我想先問一下煉油業務。

And back in the 2022 Analyst Day, there was some guidance for 5% margin capture improvement by 2025.

早在 2022 年分析師日，就有一些關於到 2025 年利潤率提高 5% 的指導。

And I think there was some kind of optimization across the portfolio involved in that and some discrete projects involved in that.

我認為涉及的投資組合以及涉及的一些離散項目進行了某種優化。

It sounds like maybe those projects have been a bit delayed.

聽起來這些項目可能有點延遲了。

I can't really tell.

我實在說不出來。

But how much has capture improved from 2022?

但與 2022 年相比，捕獲量提高了多少？

Tough to compare, given the change indicator.

考慮到變化指標，很難進行比較。

And would you say you're on track with the projects that underpinned that capture improvement?

您是否認為支持捕獲改進的項目正在按計劃進行？

Yeah, this is Rich again.

是的，這又是里奇。

Short story is we're on track.

簡而言之，我們正在步入正軌。

And how that's all coming together is a series of small capital projects with high return.

而這一切是如何匯集在一起的，是一系列高回報的小型資本項目。

I mentioned those a little bit earlier, but in 2022 and in 2023, we completed a series of projects, roughly 12 to 15 each year.

我之前提到過這些，但在 2022 年和 2023 年，我們完成了一系列項目，每年大約 12 到 15 個。

And these are return projects and assuming mid-cycle pricing returned about 3% improvement in market capture associated with those projects.

這些都是回報項目，假設中期定價使與這些項目相關的市場佔有率提高了約 3%。

In '24, we have additional 15 projects that we're executing right now and those projects will add about 2% of market capture to a mid-cycle price earnings profile.

24 年，我們目前正在執行另外 15 個項目，這些項目將為中期價格收益狀況增加約 2% 的市場佔有率。

So add those all up to three years program on this, it comes up to the 5%.

因此，將所有長達三年的計劃加起來，就達到了 5%。

That 5% number is equivalent to essentially $400 million of earnings at mid-cycle pricing.

以中期定價計算，這 5% 的數字相當於 4 億美元的收益。

So, if you -- if we see that environment, I'm very confident that we will see that impact and that actually hit into the market capture numbers that we're seeing through the existing indicator.

因此，如果我們看到這種環境，我非常有信心我們會看到這種影響，並且實際上會影響我們透過現有指標看到的市場佔有率。

And we'll have to go back and recreate a bridge to the traditional indicator.

我們必須返回並重新創建通往傳統指標的橋樑。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

My follow-up question is going back to some of the commentary on distributions next year and the balance between de-leveraging and buying back shares.

我的後續問題是回到對明年分配以及去槓桿和回購股票之間的平衡的一些評論。

There's a few targets out there in terms of that.

在這方面有一些目標。

There's 25% to 30% that as the cap.

上限為 25% 到 30%。

There's $18 billion of net debt.

淨債務為 180 億美元。

What's kind of the preferred metric investors should look at to determine what the buyback capacity is next year?

投資人應該考慮什麼類型的首選指標來決定明年的回購能力？

And how do you feel about the balance sheet going into next year, given all the concern around the refining market environment?

考慮到對煉油市場環境的擔憂，您對明年的資產負債表有何看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Jason.

是的，傑森。

It's Kevin.

是凱文。

Let me make a couple of comments on that.

讓我對此發表幾點評論。

The leverage target is 25% to 30% level.

槓桿目標為25%至30%水準。

But we acknowledge that that may take a while to get there, given the current environment and the absolute -- not just debt level, but also, it's debt and equity that drive that calculation.

但我們承認，考慮到當前的環境和絕對債務水平，而且推動這項計算的債務和股本，這可能需要一段時間才能實現。

We also are looking at absolute debt at a sub-$18 billion on a net debt basis.

我們也預計，以淨債務計算，絕對債務將低於 180 億美元。

We're at the end of the third quarter.

我們正處於第三季末。

We were at an $18 billion net debt level.

我們的淨債務水準為 180 億美元。

And we'd like to be a little bit lower than that.

我們希望比這個低一點。

We do think that we're going to have a fair amount of flexibility going into next year because while the refining environment is weaker than we would like, the other businesses are performing very well.

我們確實認為明年我們將擁有相當大的靈活性，因為雖然煉油環境比我們希望的要弱，但其他業務的表現非常好。

We have the broader portfolio and you're seeing the benefits of that.

我們擁有更廣泛的產品組合，您已經看到了它的好處。

And we also have some healthy cash that will become available through the asset disposition.

我們也擁有一些可透過資產處置取得的健康現金。

So while we've announced $2.7 billion, less than half of that has actually been realized at this point in time.

因此，雖然我們宣布了 27 億美元，但目前實際落實的還不到一半。

So we've got a fair amount still to come.

所以我們還有相當多的工作要做。

In and there's other transactions that we're working on.

我們正在處理其他交易。

So I think we'll still have a lot of flexibility to be able to meet our cash returns objectives and make progress on the balance sheet, which as you know is one of our strategic priorities as well.

因此，我認為我們仍然有很大的靈活性，能夠實現我們的現金回報目標並在資產負債表上取得進展，正如你所知，這也是我們的策略重點之一。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊蓋特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Mark, I don't know if you want to take this one.

馬克，我不知道你是否願意接受這件事。

But if you go back and look at the targets you laid out back in 2022, the disposal program, I guess, the acquisition of DCP wasn't in there either, but the disposal program was not explicit in your EBITDA targets.

但如果你回頭看看你在 2022 年制定的目標，我想，收購 DCP 的處置計劃也不在其中，但你的 EBITDA 目標中並沒有明確的處置計劃。

Can you give us some idea?

你能給我們一些想法嗎？

I'm guessing, it's a small number but what the EBITDA losses from the $2.7 billion of disposals so far?

我猜，這個數字很小，但迄今為止 27 億美元的處置導致 EBITDA 損失是多少？

Yeah.

是的。

No, thanks for mentioning that, Doug.

不，謝謝你提到這一點，道格。

As we step back and look at our earnings capacity at mid-cycle projection at $14 billion by the end of 2025, we also recognize that there's parts that are moving in and out of the portfolio.

當我們退後一步，審視到 2025 年底我們的中期盈利能力預計將達到 140 億美元時，我們也認識到，有些部分正在進出投資組合。

And where we're landing is sometime early next year, we're going to look at the gives and takes -- puts and takes around that number and we'll come out with a revised, mid-cycle earnings capacity.

我們將在明年初的某個時候落地，我們將研究給予和索取——圍繞這個數字的投入和索取，我們將得出修訂後的中期盈利能力。

And just recognizing that that number is not a projection of our earnings in 2025 but really our mid-cycle earnings capacity in 2025.

我們要認識到，這個數字並不是我們對 2025 年獲利的預測，而是我們 2025 年中期獲利能力的真實體現。

And we'll be updating everyone on that.

我們將向大家通報最新情況。

You can't put a number around the $2.7 billion at this point?

現在你還不能給出 27 億美元左右的數字嗎？

We're not prepared to do that right now.

我們現在還不準備這樣做。

We'll revise that early next year.

我們將在明年初進行修改。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I guess my follow up is actually related to that $14 billion.

我想我的後續行動其實與那140億美元有關。

I want to make sure that we don't misspeak about that being a target for '25.

我想確保我們不會誤講這是 25 年的目標。

It's obviously a mid-cycle capacity as you pointed out.

正如您所指出的，這顯然是一個中期產能。

But embedded in there is a little over $5 billion of refining at midcycle.

但其中包含略高於 50 億美元的中期煉油費用。

And you've obviously -- you've been in the press and quite vocal about your view of what the capacity person takes are globally for the industry.

顯然，您一直在媒體上直言不諱地表達了您對全球行業人才需求的看法。

And I'm just curious when you think maybe we need to wait until next year but if you think forward about what you had historically seen as midcycle, what some of us thought might be a better midcycle, that's obviously been kiboshed by last couple of quarters, obviously.

我只是很好奇，當你認為也許我們需要等到明年，但如果你向前思考你歷史上所看到的中期週期，我們中的一些人認為可能是一個更好的中期週期，那顯然已經被過去的幾個週期所否定了。

But I guess, I'm curious whether you think there it's still a case for a higher mid-cycle or whether you're battling to hold on to what was the last 10 years as mid-cycle average?

但我想，我很好奇您是否認為中期週期仍然有可能走高，或者您是否正在努力保持過去 10 年的中期週期平均？

Well, certainly, a lot has changed in the last 10 years.

嗯，當然，過去十年發生了很多變化。

And I think part of our review is we will have to step back and see what has happened in in mid cycle with respect to inflation inside the crack spreads, where all that comes down.

我認為我們審查的一部分是，我們將不得不退後一步，看看在周期中期，裂解價差內的通貨膨脹發生了什麼，所有這些都下降了。

I think it's very different than it was 10 years ago.

我認為這與 10 年前有很大不同。

But we do see enhanced strength in our ability to capture value in our refining assets.

但我們確實看到我們獲取煉油資產價值的能力有所增強。

And we believe in the long list of things that Rich has talked about and the combination of creating more integration value, our ability of our commercial group to capture more value from the marketplace, and a different posture around how we trade around our assets has significantly enhanced our mid-cycle earnings capability in refining.

我們相信里奇談到的一長串事情以及創造更多整合價值、我們商業集團從市場獲取更多價值的能力以及圍繞我們的資產進行交易的不同立場的結合，已經顯著影響了我們的業務。煉油業務中期獲利能力增強。

And if you look at 2025, yeah, we don't believe that we'll be at mid-cycle in 2025.

如果你看看 2025 年，是的，我們不相信 2025 年會處於週期中期。

But we also believe that going forward beyond '25 that we're going to see global demand growth that will exceed the net impact of capacity additions and rationalizations.

但我們也相信，25 年後，我們將看到全球需求成長將超過產能增加和合理化的淨影響。

And you're seeing more rationalization announcements coming at us and very little -- beyond the two big refineries that are coming on now, very little capacity addition beyond 2025.

你會看到我們發布了更多的合理化公告，但除了目前正在建造的兩家大型煉油廠之外，2025 年後的產能增加很少。

And we've got a fairly bullish outlook in the medium term.

我們對中期前景相當樂觀。

Theresa Chen, Barclays.

特蕾莎·陳，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First, on the cost side for the chem business, with ethane in contango, due to natural gas being into contango, also perhaps because we have incremental residue capacity coming out of the Permian allowing for the option to project into 2025, how do you see that impacting chem margins from a macro perspective through 2025?

首先，在化學業務的成本方面，由於天然氣進入期貨溢價，乙烷處於期貨溢價，也可能是因為我們從二疊紀地區獲得了增量殘渣產能，可以選擇預測到 2025 年，您如何看待從宏觀角度來看，這對2025 年化學利潤率有何影響？

And related to that, just given your processing footprint and your option to project or extract ethane for at least some of your volumes, could that may be a way to bolster earnings across the integrated value chain, midstream, and chem in a way that competitors cannot?

與此相關的是，只要考慮到您的加工足跡以及您對至少部分產量進行規劃或提取乙烷的選擇，這可能是一種以競爭對手的方式提高整個整合價值鏈、中游和化學收入的方法不能？

Hi, Theresa.

嗨，特蕾莎。

This is Don.

這是唐。

I think, from ethane standpoint as it relates to CPChem, I think the advantage of ethane will continue to be there near term and long term.

我認為，從乙烷與 CPChem 相關的角度來看，我認為乙烷的優勢在短期和長期內將繼續存在。

So I feel good about that outlook and how that will continue to be beneficial for CPChem's position in the chemical market.

因此，我對這一前景以及這將繼續有利於 CPChem 在化學品市場的地位感到滿意。

With regard to our assets and how we think about it, we do have, obviously, with our gas processing assets, a lot of flexibility in terms of ethane recovery and rejection.

就我們的資產以及我們的看法而言，顯然，我們的天然氣加工資產在乙烷回收和排斥方面確實擁有很大的靈活性。

And we make those decisions on a day-by-day basis, based on market conditions and what our downstream infrastructure is associated with those assets and how to maximize both the throughput as well as the profitability as we push those barrels downstream.

我們每天根據市場狀況以及我們的下游基礎設施與這些資產的相關性，以及當我們將這些桶推向下游時如何最大限度地提高吞吐量和盈利能力來做出這些決定。

So we think we've got, as an integrated player, a really good play kit to utilize and optimize across that gas to ethane and then ethane as a feedstock into the pet-chem industry.

因此，我們認為，作為一個綜合參與者，我們擁有一個非常好的遊戲套件，可以利用和優化從氣體到乙烷，然後將乙烷作為石油化學工業的原料。

So we think it's going to be an opportunity set that we'll be able to execute on here in the near term as well as on down through the future.

因此，我們認為這將是一個我們能夠在短期內以及未來執行的機會集。

Got it.

知道了。

And turning to the residue side in the Permian, I'd love to get a sense of how you view your exposure there and you've sold -- and a gas transmission asset outside of the Permian.

轉向二疊紀的殘油方面，我很想了解您如何看待在那裡的風險敞口以及您已出售的資產，以及二疊紀以外的天然氣輸送資產。

Do you view your interest in GCX as core to your business, keeping in mind that the two other interests in GCX have consistently transacted with a double-digit multiple and the pipe also recently (inaudible) an expansion, that's going to cost nearly $0.5 billion on 100% basis?

您是否將您對GCX 的權益視為您業務的核心？將花費近5 億美元100% 的基礎上？

Is that the best use of your capital?

這是您資本的最佳利用方式嗎？

And love to hear your thoughts there.

並喜歡聽聽您的想法。

Well, first I'd say, we are very excited to see the customer support behind the GCX expansion.

嗯，首先我要說的是，我們很高興看到 GCX 擴充背後的客戶支援。

We do think that's a big vote of confidence as to the productivity and the outlook of volume growth in the Permian, which obviously we're a beneficiary of given our footprint there.

我們確實認為，這是對二疊紀盆地生產力和產量成長前景的一大信任票，考慮到我們在那裡的足跡，顯然我們是受益者。

And we are an active participant in the residue gas marketing, space, and moving gas out of that basin.

我們是殘餘氣體行銷、空間以及將天然氣移出該盆地的積極參與者。

So we're pleased with where things situate from that standpoint.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們對事情的進展感到滿意。

And then, I mean, probably just reiterate what Mark had said, I mean, we regularly evaluate our portfolio and look for opportunities to high grade where it makes sense.

然後，我的意思是，可能只是重申馬克所說的話，我的意思是，我們定期評估我們的投資組合，並尋找有意義的高評級機會。

We think that's just the right way to ensure our capital is allocated to the best opportunities.

我們認為這是確保我們的資本分配到最佳機會的正確方法。

So, it'll just be part of -- in terms of our GCX interest, it'll be no different than the other assets in our portfolio.

因此，就我們 GCX 權益而言，它只是一部分，與我們投資組合中的其他資產沒有什麼不同。

We'll continually evaluate and make a decision when the time and opportunities make sense.

當時間和機會有意義時，我們將不斷評估並做出決定。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，豐業銀行。

Hey, guys.

嘿，夥計們。

Good morning.

早安.

I think the first question is for Kelvin.

我認為第一個問題是問凱爾文的。

I think in the past, you have talked about a $4 billion to $5 billion on the cash balance.

我想您過去曾談到現金餘額為 40 億至 50 億美元。

I don't know whether that is still the longer-term objective.

我不知道這是否仍然是長期目標。

And also, I'm just curious that given the volatility in the market we are seeing, and today, you already saying that the debt level is a bit higher than what you prefer in the longer term.

而且，我只是很好奇，考慮到我們所看到的市場波動，今天，您已經說過債務水平比您長期希望的水平要高一些。

Should we still paying out more than 50% of the cash flow?

我們還應該支付超過 50% 的現金流嗎？

Or that at least, we should say maybe the payout would be lesser after you finish the $13 billion to $15 billion of the commitment?

或者至少，我們應該說，在您完成 130 億至 150 億美元的承諾後，支出可能會更少？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

The same question is for Rich.

同樣的問題也問到了里奇。

You mentioned the central corridor.

你提到了中央走廊。

You benefit from the WTI hedges.

您可以從 WTI 對沖中受益。

I presume you are not referring to the CMI -- the CMA.

我猜你指的不是 CMI——CMA。

You are actually physical (inaudible) that you get into.

你實際上是在身體上（聽不清楚）。

Is that just you need for your central corridor operation or that you're doing other kind of hedges in the rest of your operation?

這只是您的中央走廊操作所需要的，還是您在其餘操作中進行其他類型的對沖？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, Paul.

是的，保羅。

It's Kevin.

是凱文。

I'll hit your first question.

我來回答你的第一個問題。

I think the $4 billion to $5 billion, it sounds like one of our competitors uses that number for cash.

我認為 40 億到 50 億美元，聽起來我們的一個競爭對手用這個數字換現金。

We've said $2 billion to $3 billion, is our sort of ideal cash level which gives us adequate flexibility.

我們已經說過，20 億至 30 億美元是我們理想的現金水平，它為我們提供了足夠的靈活性。

And of course, we've also got plenty of other liquidity available to us.

當然，我們還有大量其他可用的流動性。

So $2 billion to $3 billion is the number that we've been saying in terms of cash balance.

因此，20 億至 30 億美元就是我們一直所說的現金餘額數字。

And as you can, we were slightly lower than that at the end of the third quarter.

如您所知，我們的業績略低於第三季末。

On a go-forward basis on cash returns, 50% still feels pretty reasonable as an objective, 50% or more.

就現金回報率而言，50% 的目標仍然相當合理，50% 或更多。

The dividend is $2 billion.

股息為20億美元。

And so that's -- while in theory, there's flexibility on that, that's not how we think about it.

所以，雖然從理論上講，這方面有彈性，但這不是我們的想法。

That's a -- we view that as a very much a commitment.

我們認為這是一個非常重要的承諾。

And the 50% still leaves adequate room for the other things we want to accomplish.

這 50% 仍然為我們想要完成的其他事情留下了足夠的空間。

I would also emphasize that we continue to be very disciplined around our capital program, our growth capital.

我還要強調，我們對我們的資本計畫、我們的成長資本仍然非常嚴格。

So back two years ago, we said for the next couple of years, '22 and '23, we have a $2 billion capital budget.

因此，早在兩年前，我們就曾說過，在未來幾年，即“22 年”和“23 年”，我們有 20 億美元的資本預算。

While we haven't laid out our capital budget for 2025 yet, we expect that we'll -- we're going to continue to have that discipline around how we make those decisions.

雖然我們尚未制定 2025 年的資本預算，但我們預計我們將繼續在如何做出這些決策方面遵循這種紀律。

So I think when you put all that together, the 50% is still a reasonable number.

所以我認為當你把所有這些放在一起時，50% 仍然是一個合理的數字。

Hey, Paul.

嘿，保羅。

This is Brian.

這是布萊恩.

Just on the accounting -- for GAAP accounting, you have to mark your hedges and you don't mark the physical until it's sold or moved.

就會計而言——對於公認會計準則會計，你必須標記你的對沖，並且在實物被出售或移動之前你不會標記它。

And so in a falling market, the hedges make money and the physical doesn't get marked.

因此，在市場下跌的情況下，對沖可以賺錢，而實物卻沒有被標記。

So that'll get marked in the following quarter.

因此，這將在下個季度得到體現。

Yeah.

是的。

But Brian, is it only for the central corridor that you have that or that in other business -- in another region, you also have hedges?

但是布萊恩，你們只是在中央走廊有這樣的東西，還是在其他業務中——在另一個地區，你們也有樹籬？

Yeah, we have it in all regions.

是的，我們在所有地區都有。

So you have it in all regions.

所以你在所有地區都有它。

It's just much more significant.

它只是更重要。

(multiple speakers) volumes are -- and there was a big move on WTI on this list.

（多位發言者）成交量是——而 WTI 在此列表中出現了重大變化。

So yes, only the WTI your hedges?

那麼，是的，您的對沖策略只有 WTI 嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We generally hedge with WTI crude.

我們通常會用 WTI 原油進行避險。

Correct.

正確的。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

讓安·索爾茲伯里，美國銀行。

Hi.

你好。

I believe that the enterprise TW products pipeline has started up to

我相信企業TW產品線已經啟動了

[pad four].

[墊四]。

Are you seeing that impact in pad four margins yet?

您是否看到了第四個邊距的影響？

No, we -- not yet.

不，我們——還沒有。

Okay.

好的。

And then my follow up is, I think, you kind of referenced this in the comments but LPG export ARBs have gotten extremely wide as I'm sure that you're aware.

然後我的後續行動是，我想，您在評論中提到了這一點，但液化石油氣出口 ARB 已經變得非常廣泛，我相信您也知道。

I think they're expected to stay that way for a few quarters until more export capacity comes online.

我認為這種情況預計將持續幾個季度，直到更多的出口能力上線。

How much exposure does PSX have to the ARB?

PSX 對 ARB 有多少敞口？

I mean, does that increase over the next few quarters?

我的意思是，未來幾季這個數字會增加嗎？

Yeah, this is Don.

是的，這是唐。

Thanks, Jean Ann.

謝謝，讓安。

At Freeport, we are experiencing strong demand for LPGs.

在自由港，我們對液化石油氣的需求強勁。

And I would just say we have a portfolio mix of short- and long-term contracts there at Freeport as well as really across our whole NGL value chain.

我只想說，我們在自由港以及整個 NGL 價值鏈上擁有短期和長期合約的投資組合。

So yeah, this portfolio approach lets us capitalize on opportunities like we see today across the system.

所以，是的，這種投資組合方法讓我們能夠利用今天在整個系統中看到的機會。

It helps navigate where at any point in time across the NGL value chain, you have some positives from a margin standpoint and some headwinds.

它有助於在 NGL 價值鏈的任何時間點找到從利潤角度來看的一些積極因素和一些不利因素。

So it really helps level out across that value chain.

因此，它確實有助於整個價值鏈的平衡。

But we are seeing real positive healthy dock fees, given the spread today to international markets, the ample supply of vessels, and then just a tight existing dock capacity across the Gulf Coast.

但考慮到目前國際市場的價差、船舶供應充足以及整個墨西哥灣沿岸現有的碼頭能力緊張，我們看到了真正積極健康的碼頭費用。

We'll get our share of that, and we believe it's a pretty healthy outlook as you mentioned for the foreseeable quarters.

我們將得到我們的份額，我們相信，正如您所提到的，在可預見的幾個季度裡，這是一個相當健康的前景。

Joe Laetsch, Morgan Stanley.

喬‧萊奇，摩根士丹利。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, team, and thanks for taking my questions.

早安，團隊，感謝您提出我的問題。

So on the macro side -- thanks for your comments earlier on the supply outlook.

因此，在宏觀方面，感謝您先前對供應前景的評論。

Could you just talk to what you're seeing on the demand side for gasoline, diesel, and jet within your system as well as your outlook from here?

您能否談談您對系統內汽油、柴油和噴射機需求的看法以及您的展望？

Sure.

當然。

Hey, this is Brian.

嘿，這是布萊恩。

Starting with gasoline, global gasoline year to date, we're seeing about 1% higher than '23.

從汽油開始，今年迄今的全球汽油價格比 23 年高出約 1%。

European demands a bright spot with sales of gasoline powered and gasoline hybrid vehicles supporting a higher growth in 3Q versus prior 3Q, about 4% up.

歐洲需求亮點，汽油動力和汽油混合動力車的銷量支持第三季較上一季更高的成長，成長約 4%。

US demand performed well too, growing over 1% 3Q to former 3Q.

美國需求也表現良好，第三季較前三季成長超過1%。

Part of that is the retail prices that were falling considerably with the spot prices.

部分原因是零售價格隨現貨價格大幅下跌。

On distillate -- year-to-date distillate, global demand was about 1.5% lower.

就餾分油而言，今年迄今，全球餾分油需求下降了約 1.5%。

In the US, we saw in 3Q about 2% lower than 3Q.

在美國，我們看到第三季比第三季下降了約 2%。

We're seeing some cautiously optimistic comments from some of the freight companies.

我們看到一些貨運公司發表了一些謹慎樂觀的評論。

UPS, for instance, came out last week and reported positive revenue and profit growth in the third quarter, which followed nearly two years of subpar performance.

例如，UPS 上週發布報告稱，在近兩年表現不佳之後，第三季營收和利潤實現了積極成長。

Also in the global container business, the global container volumes are up.

同樣在全球貨櫃業務中，全球貨櫃吞吐量也在上升。

In fact, in August, it hit a record high, so seeing some positive signs there.

事實上，在八月份，它創下了歷史新高，因此看到了一些積極的跡象。

Jet -- year-to-date global jet demand is about 8.5% higher than '23, driven largely by Asia.

噴射機—今年迄今為止，全球噴射機需求比 20 世紀 23 年高出約 8.5%，這主要是由亞洲推動的。

Europe and US flight demand is back to 2019 levels, but jet demand isn't quite back to those levels mostly because of the aircraft efficiency in the fleet.

歐洲和美國的航班需求已恢復至 2019 年的水平，但噴射機的需求尚未完全恢復至這些水平，主要是因為機隊的飛機效率較高。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just shifting to renewables, some peers have talked about seeing a premium for staff over RD.

然後，在轉向再生能源時，一些同行談到，員工的溢價高於研發。

What are you seeing from a commercial demand standpoint for staff at Rodeo?

從商業需求的角度來看，您對 Rodeo 員工有何看法？

Yeah, we also see a premium for renewable jet production.

是的，我們也看到可再生飛機生產的溢價。

I'll caution that in Q4, we're likely not to produce renewable jet.

我要提醒大家的是，在第四季度，我們可能不會生產再生飛機。

We're currently running off higher CI feedstocks for the plant as we prepare for the production tax credit next year.

目前，我們正在為工廠使用較高的 CI 原料，為明年的生產稅收抵免做準備。

But we expect to be in steady state at renewable diesel -- renewable complex by Q1 of next year.

但我們預計到明年第一季度，再生柴油—再生綜合體將處於穩定狀態。

And so by then, you should see us producing renewable jet.

到那時，您應該會看到我們生產可再生噴氣機。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, all.

謝謝大家。

Yeah, maybe just to add a little bit to that color there.

是的，也許只是為那裡的顏色添加一點。

We did actually produce sustainable aviation fuel in September.

九月我們確實生產了永續航空燃料。

So we, in the past, indicated that that was our intention.

因此，我們過去曾表示這是我們的意圖。

We did successfully produce a sustainable aviation field.

我們確實成功地建立了一個可持續的航空領域。

There's this market anomaly that Brian's talking about here in the fourth quarter that will limit that production.

布萊恩在這裡談論的第四季度的市場異常現象將限制產量。

But we will fully intend to be a supplier of sustainable aviation fuel to the marketplace.

但我們將完全致力於成為市場上可持續航空燃料的供應商。

This concludes the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Mark Lashier for closing comments.

我現在將把電話轉回馬克·拉希爾（Mark Lashier）以徵求結束意見。

Thanks for all your questions.

感謝您提出的所有問題。

We delivered strong performance across our differentiated downstream portfolio.

我們的差異化下游產品組合取得了強勁的業績。

Business transformation achieved $1.4 billion of run rate cost reductions and lowered our refining costs by $1 dollar per barrel.

業務轉型實現了運行成本降低 14 億美元，並將煉油成本降低了每桶 1 美元。

Midstream achieved its synergy target and provided stable earnings with attractive growth opportunities.

中游實現了協同目標，並提供了穩定的收益和有吸引力的成長機會。

We expect to exceed our $3 billion asset disposition target, having signed agreements to generate $2.7 billion in proceeds to date.

我們預計將超過 30 億美元的資產處置目標，迄今已簽署協議以產生 27 億美元的收益。

We continue to evaluate assets as part of our ongoing portfolio optimization.

作為我們持續優化投資組合的一部分，我們將繼續評估資產。

I'm proud of our employees' significant achievements toward our commitments.

我為我們的員工在履行我們的承諾方面取得的重大成就感到自豪。

We're confident in our strategy and continued execution on the remaining targets.

我們對我們的策略和繼續執行其餘目標充滿信心。

Thank you for your interest in Phillips 66.

感謝您對菲利普斯 66 的關注。

If you have questions after today's call, please call Jeff or Owen.

如果您在今天的電話會議後有疑問，請致電傑夫或歐文。

Thank you everyone for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

This concludes our call.

我們的通話到此結束。

And you may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。