Public Storage (PSA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Public Storage Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ryan Burke, Vice President of Investor Relations for Public Storage. Thank you. Mr. Burke, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加公共儲存 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，公共儲存投資者關係副總裁 Ryan Burke。謝謝。伯克先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm here with Joe Russell and Tom Boyle. Before we begin, we want to remind you that certain matters discussed during this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements speak only as of today, October 31, 2023, and we assume no obligation to update, revise or supplement statements to become untrue because of subsequent events.

謝謝你，羅布。大家好。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我和喬·拉塞爾和湯姆·博伊爾在一起。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。所有前瞻性陳述僅代表截至今天（2023 年 10 月 31 日）的情況，我們不承擔更新、修改或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的陳述的義務。

A reconciliation to GAAP of the non-GAAP financial measures we provide on this call is included in our earnings release. You can find our press release, supplemental report, SEC reports and an audio replay of this conference call on our website at publicstorage.com. We do ask that you initially keep your questions to 2. Of course, after that, feel free to jump back in the queue. With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe.

我們在本次電話會議上提供的非公認會計原則財務指標的公認會計原則調節表包含在我們的收益發布中。您可以在我們的網站 publicstorage.com 上找到我們的新聞稿、補充報告、SEC 報告以及本次電話會議的音訊重播。我們確實要求您最初將問題保留在 2 個。當然，之後您可以隨意跳回到隊列中。這樣，我就把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Ryan, and thank you all for joining us today. Tom and I will walk you through a few highlights for Q3 and then open up the call for questions. Each team at Public Storage is successfully exercising our platform-wide advantages in a more competitive environment as demonstrated by third quarter performance and our raised outlook for the remainder of 2023. As we entered this year and expectedly, we saw new move-in customer demand for the sector shift lower, particularly with softening existing home sales due to the rapid rise in home mortgage rates.

謝謝瑞安，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。湯姆和我將向您介紹第三季的一些亮點，然後開始提問。 Public Storage 的每個團隊都在競爭更加激烈的環境中成功地發揮了我們的全平台優勢，第三季度的業績和我們對2023 年剩餘時間的展望就證明了這一點。隨著我們進入今年，正如我們所料，我們看到了新的入住客戶需求該行業的跌幅尤其明顯，尤其是由於房屋抵押貸款利率快速上升導致現有房屋銷售疲軟。

On the flip side, there has been solid and increased demand from new customers that are renters. They have proven to be very good customers as well, particularly from a length of stay perspective. We have the right team, technologies and analytics to determine the appropriate mix of marketing, promotions and rental rates. Drawn by these top-of-funnel tools, along with our leading brand, self-storage users are clearly choosing public storage. Our strong move in volume, coupled with healthy in-place customer behavior has led to better-than-expected occupancy trends with our same-store occupancy gap narrowing from 250 basis points at the beginning of the year to 120 basis points at the end of September and to 60 basis points as of today.

另一方面，租戶新客戶的需求不斷增加。事實證明，他們也是非常好的客戶，特別是從停留時間的角度來看。我們擁有合適的團隊、技術和分析來確定行銷、促銷和租金的適當組合。在這些漏斗頂部工具以及我們的領先品牌的吸引下，自助儲存用戶顯然選擇了公共儲存。我們銷售量的強勁成長，加上健康的就地顧客行為，導致入住率趨勢優於預期，同店入住率差距從年初的 250 個基點縮小到年底的 120 個基點。9 月至今已升至60 個基點。

Our digital and operating model transformation continues to be a significant enhancement to customer experience and our financial profile. Customers benefit from having digital options at their fingertips across their entire journey. Our proprietary digital ecosystem is a compelling reason to choose us with over 60% of our customers running through our online leasing platform, and today, we have more than 1.4 million PS app users. And our financial profile benefits as well. We are putting these digital tools in the hands of our customers and employees for convenience combined with in-person on-site customer service when and where it is needed. The result is a better customer experience and enhanced margins, particularly in regard to labor efficiencies.

我們的數位和營運模式轉型持續顯著增強客戶體驗和我們的財務狀況。客戶在整個旅程中受益於觸手可及的數位選項。我們專有的數位生態系統是選擇我們的一個令人信服的理由，超過 60% 的客戶透過我們的線上租賃平台運行，如今，我們擁有超過 140 萬 PS 應用程式用戶。我們的財務狀況也受益匪淺。我們將這些數位工具交到客戶和員工手中，以便在需要時隨時隨地提供現場客戶服務，以提供便利。其結果是更好的客戶體驗和更高的利潤，特別是在勞動力效率方面。

We are also growing our portfolio amidst broader market dislocation. Our industry-leading NOI margins, multifactor in-house operating platform, access and cost of capital and growth-oriented balance sheet put us in a very unique position. So far this year, we have acquired more than $2.6 billion worth of properties, including the $2.2 billion Simply Self Storage portfolio comprising 127 properties. As is our regular practice, every property was fully integrated into the public storage platform on day 1 and we welcomed over 250 new associates and approximately 90,000 customers.

在更廣泛的市場混亂中，我們也在擴大我們的投資組合。我們行業領先的 NOI 利潤率、多因素內部營運平台、資本准入和成本以及以成長為導向的資產負債表使我們處於非常獨特的地位。今年到目前為止，我們已收購了價值超過 26 億美元的房產，其中包括由 127 處房產組成的價值 22 億美元的 Simply Self Storage 投資組合。按照我們的慣例，每個資產在第一天就完全整合到公共儲存平台中，我們迎來了超過 250 名新員工和大約 90,000 名客戶。

We are also ahead of schedule on reimaging the entire portfolio to public storage to ensure the maximum benefit from our industry-leading brand. We will have also delivered $375 million in development by year-end and have a pipeline of nearly $1 billion of development to be delivered over the next 2 years. Since we updated you last quarter, the sharp move in interest rates has backed up the acquisition market with fewer deals likely to trade by year-end, typically a busy time of year for asset closings.

我們還提前將整個產品組合重新映像到公共存儲，以確保從我們行業領先的品牌中獲得最大利益。到年底，我們還將交付 3.75 億美元的開發資金，並在未來 2 年內交付近 10 億美元的開發案。自從我們上個季度向您通報最新情況以來，利率的大幅波動為收購市場提供了支持，到年底（通常是一年中資產關閉的繁忙時期）可能進行的交易數量減少。

We are actively engaged with a full range of owners that give us confidence that some sellers' expectations will adjust as the cost of capital has clearly increased. Our advantages enable us to acquire and develop when others can't. We have a strong appetite to grow our portfolio as seller expectations continue to correct, and we have a matching ability to execute. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

我們積極與各類業主接觸，這讓我們相信，隨著資金成本明顯增加，一些賣家的預期將會調整。我們的優勢使我們能夠在別人無法做到的時候獲得和發展。隨著賣家期望的不斷修正，我們對擴大我們的投資組合有強烈的興趣，我們有相符的執行能力。現在我將把電話轉給湯姆。

Thanks, Joe. We reported core FFO of $4.33 per share for the third quarter representing 5.6% growth year-over-year, excluding the contribution from PS Business Parks. Looking at the key components for the quarter, same-store revenues increased 2.5%. As Joe mentioned, move-in rental rates continue to be lower for us and the industry, but we're seeing strong move in volume along with the right mix of marketing spend and promotions. Our existing customer base continues to perform well with move-out volumes further moderating this quarter. These trends largely continued in October with the year-over-year occupancy gap narrowing to 60 basis points as of today, as Joe mentioned.

謝謝，喬。我們報告第三季核心 FFO 為每股 4.33 美元，年增 5.6%，不包括 PS 商業園區的貢獻。從本季的主要組成部分來看，同店收入成長了 2.5%。正如喬所提到的，對於我們和整個行業來說，入住租金率繼續較低，但我們看到數量的強勁增長以及行銷支出和促銷的正確組合。我們現有的客戶群持續表現良好，本季遷出量進一步放緩。正如喬所提到的，這些趨勢在 10 月基本延續，截至今天，年比入住率差距縮小至 60 個基點。

On expenses, same-store cost of operations were up 2.8%, leading to 2.4% stabilized same-store NOI growth at an industry-leading operating margin of 80%. Our largest market, Los Angeles, continues to lead our portfolio. The 214 properties in the same-store pool grew NOI by 6% on steady demand and limited new supply of facilities. In addition to the same store, the lease-up and performance of recently acquired and developed facilities continues to be a standout with NOI increasing nearly 20% year-over-year in the quarter.

在費用方面，同店營運成本上升 2.8%，導致同店 NOI 穩定成長 2.4%，營運利潤率達到業界領先的 80%。我們最大的市場洛杉磯繼續引領我們的投資組合。由於需求穩定和新增設施供應有限，同店池中的 214 個物業的 NOI 增加了 6%。除了同一家商店外，最近收購和開發的設施的租賃和業績繼續表現出色，本季 NOI 年增近 20%。

This pool of 685 properties and more than 60 million square feet comprises nearly 30% of our total portfolio today and is a strong contributor to FFO growth today and into the future. Shifting toward the outlook, we sit here in October, raising our core FFO range once again, increasing both the low and high ends to $16.60 at the low end to $16.85 at the high end.

這個由 685 處房產和超過 6,000 萬平方英尺組成的池，占我們今天總投資組合的近 30%，是當今和未來 FFO 成長的強大貢獻者。轉向前景，我們在 10 月坐在這裡，再次提高我們的核心 FFO 範圍，將低端和高端提高到低端 16.60 美元，高端到 16.85 美元。

Last but not least, our capital and liquidity position remained rock solid. We are well positioned with a strong appetite for growth, coupled with the ability to execute in a dynamic capital markets environment. Rob, with that, let's please open it up to Q&A.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的資本和流動性狀況仍然堅如磐石。我們處於有利位置，具有強烈的成長慾望，並且有能力在充滿活力的資本市場環境中執行。羅布，接下來，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

You continue to navigate the environment well, though the guidance implies continued deceleration into the fourth quarter for same-store revenue growth and same-store NOI growth with both turning negative at the midpoint. So what are you seeing in October to this point? And how are you viewing how the last 2 months of the year will play out.

儘管指引意味著同店收入成長和同店 NOI 成長在第四季度繼續減速，並且在中點都轉為負值，但您仍能很好地應對環境。那麼到目前為止，您在 10 月看到了什麼？您如何看待今年最後兩個月的情況？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Good question. So I'll provide a little bit of context on the same-store revenue outlook for the remainder of the year and then specifically speak to October. So as we've spoken to in the prepared remarks, the environment for new move-ins continues to be competitive, and that's persisted through the second half as we sit here in October. We and the industry are responding with lower rental rates, promotions as well as advertising. But on the flip side, we're seeing good move in volume growth. Those tenants are staying longer than last year, and our existing tenant base has been strong.

是的。謝謝，麥可。好問題。因此，我將提供一些有關今年剩餘時間同店收入前景的背景信息，然後專門討論 10 月份的情況。因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，新進駐的環境仍然充滿競爭，當我們 10 月坐在這裡時，這種競爭一直持續到下半年。我們和整個產業正在透過降低租金、促銷和廣告來應對。但另一方面，我們看到銷量成長良好。這些租戶的入住時間比去年更長，而且我們現有的租戶基礎也很強大。

When we look at the exit rates for move-in rates and occupancy to give you a sense what's assumed in our outlook. On move-in rates, we assume that the midpoint move-in rents are down circa 18% at the midpoint. The high end of our outlook assumes 13% decline year-over-year and the low end, 22%. On the occupancy side, the midpoint assumes that we hold the year-over-year decline from September at about 120 basis points decline year-over-year. At the high end of the range, we nearly closed the gap to last year by the end of December. And obviously, at the low end, we go backwards on occupancy towards the end of the year.

當我們查看退出率、入住率和入住率時，可以讓您了解我們的前景假設。關於入住率，我們假設中點入住租金下降約 18%。我們的預測上限為年減 13%，下限為 22%。在入住率方面，中點假設我們將自 9 月以來的同比降幅保持在約 120 個基點。在該區間的高端，到 12 月底，我們幾乎縮小了與去年的差距。顯然，在低端，我們在年底時的入住率會出現倒退。

Speaking specifically to October, we've seen, again, good volumes but at lower rates. As we look at the move-in rental rate decline on an apples-to-apples basis, move-in rents down, call it, 18% in October to date. Obviously, today, we'll wrap up the month. We and others ran some fall in Halloween sales on select units in the back half that will cause a little bit of a decline in that towards the back half of the month. But overall, seeing very good volumes. Volume is up nearly 9% in the month of October. So the tools that Joe highlighted continue to work very well. And I would point again to existing customers performing well. Move-outs were down or actually are down year-over-year this month to date. And the occupancy gap, as Joe highlighted, has improved to down about 60 basis points today. So we're seeing good traffic in existing tenant performance.

具體到十月份，我們再次看到成交量良好，但價格較低。當我們逐一查看入住租金率下降情況時，10 月迄今為止，入住租金下降了 18%。顯然，今天我們將結束這個月。我們和其他人在後半段的某些單位的萬聖節銷售中出現了一些下降，這將導致本月後半段的銷量略有下降。但總體而言，銷量非常好。 10 月成交量成長了近 9%。因此，喬強調的工具仍然非常有效。我想再次指出現有客戶表現良好。本月迄今為止，遷出量同比下降或實際上同比下降。正如 Joe 所強調的，入住率差距今天已縮小至約 60 個基點。因此，我們看到現有租戶的流量表現良好。

That's really helpful. And my follow-up question is on the existing customer. You've talked about in the past with the existing customer, how they respond as a function of price sensitivity? ECRIs are a function of price sensitivity and the replacement cost, given the pressure on move-in rates, how do you think about your ECRI philosophy heading into the back half of the year or heading into the through the fourth quarter, just given what you've seen from the customer?

這真的很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於現有客戶的。您過去曾與現有客戶討論過，他們如何根據價格敏感度做出反應？ ECRI 是價格敏感度和重置成本的函數，考慮到入住率的壓力，您如何看待下半年或整個第四季度的 ECRI 理念？從客戶那裡看到過嗎？

And then separately, as a follow-up to the first part, is there any change in your guidance philosophy, you've been able to hold your guidance pretty flat through the year, at least the high end of the guidance hasn't been raised as the low end has moved up. And now you finally touched the high end. So any change in philosophy on the guidance as well.

然後，作為第一部分的後續，您的指導理念是否有任何變化？這一年您一直能夠保持指導相當平穩，至少指導的高端還沒有改變。隨著低端向上移動而升高。現在你終於觸及高端了。因此，哲學上的任何變化也都是指導性的。

Okay. That's a lot, Michael. Let's step through that. So on the existing customer rate increases, I would reiterate what we've been saying really all year, which is -- on the first component, which you highlighted, which is customer behavior and our expectations for customer behavior continue to be met or exceeded, frankly, as we move through the year. And so that side of the equation has been quite strong. It's been one of the drivers that's led to better performance through the year. And then the second component cost to replace continues to get more challenging.

好的。這麼多，麥可。讓我們逐步了解一下。因此，關於現有客戶費率的增加，我想重申我們一整年一直在說的話，即您強調的第一個組成部分，即客戶行為，以及我們對客戶行為的期望繼續得到滿足或超過坦率地說，隨著我們度過這一年。因此，等式的這一面相當強大。它是全年實現更好業績的驅動因素之一。然後，更換第二個組件的成本繼續變得更具挑戰性。

So as we've highlighted throughout the year to date, that's led to lower magnitude and lower frequencies have increased to customers. But no real change there in terms of talking points. The second component of your question related to guidance. And so we did lift the lower end as well as the higher end of our guidance range this quarter. And in February, we were pretty upfront and describe the different pathways that we could take through the year.

因此，正如我們今年迄今所強調的那樣，這導致客戶的數量級和頻率降低。但談話要點並沒有真正的改變。您問題的第二部分與指導有關。因此，我們確實提高了本季指導範圍的下限和上限。在二月份，我們非常坦率地描述了這一年我們可以採取的不同途徑。

We've been encouraged by the pathways that we've ultimately executed upon and are towards the high end of that range and again, lifted the high end this quarter. And I think I used some guideposts around the macro economy at that time as well to frame the outlook. And I think we're all somewhat pleasantly surprised by the macro economy and obviously, a strong third quarter GDP print that further reinforces the performance towards the higher end of that original guidance range.

我們對最終執行的路徑感到鼓舞，並且正在接近該範圍的高端，並在本季度再次提升了高端。我認為我當時也使用了一些有關宏觀經濟的指南來建立前景。我認為我們都對宏觀經濟感到有些驚喜，顯然，強勁的第三季 GDP 數據進一步強化了向原始指導範圍高端的表現。

And yes, Michael, one thing, just a little bit more context on existing customers. Again, we're all looking to the prints that Tom just mentioned. But month by month, through this year, we've been quite and pleasantly surprised by the consistent behavior of existing customers. We're not seeing any new or emerging stress coming through. The economy continues to support our customer base quite well. We're not seeing, again, any level of additive stress tie delinquencies, et cetera. So continuing to see very, very consistent behavior from existing customers, which is very good for the business.

是的，邁克爾，有一件事，只是更多有關現有客戶的背景資訊。同樣，我們都在尋找湯姆剛才提到的指紋。但今年以來，我們每個月都對現有客戶的一致行為感到非常驚訝。我們沒有看到任何新的或正在出現的壓力。經濟繼續很好地支持我們的客戶群。我們再次沒有看到任何程度的附加壓力關係拖欠行為等。因此，繼續看到現有客戶的行為非常非常一致，這對業務非常有利。

And again, assuming the economy at large continues to do what it's doing. We think we're in very good shape, again, going through the rest of this quarter and then setting up for 2024.

再說一次，假設整個經濟繼續發展。我們認為我們再次處於非常好的狀態，度過了本季度剩餘的時間，然後為 2024 年做好準備。

Our next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

Great. Maybe first, just talking on the transaction market. It sounds like you're maybe starting to see some sellers capitulate. I'm just wondering, Joe, how have you guys changed your underwriting criteria on the revenue NOI growth side, IRR side, cap rate side? And how wide do you think the bid-ask spread is today?

偉大的。也許首先，只是談談交易市場。聽起來你可能開始看到一些賣家投降了。我只是想知道，喬，你們是如何改變收入 NOI 成長方面、IRR 方面、資本化率方面的承保標準的？您認為今天的買賣價差有多大？

Yes, Steve. So again, a lot of moving parts there. And as you spoke to, we clearly need to be very conscientious of change in cost of capital. One of the things that step by step, as I alluded to, with a very high degree of dialogue we're having with all different types of owners, the realization of a different trading market is starting to play through. Clearly, some entities may have more pressure points likely not tied to the actual performance of the asset or the portfolio, but maybe more particularly tied to any capital event that may be emerging, again, tied to the very different environment that an owner would go through to reset an existing capital structure and how to deal with that and/or different pressure points to bring a particular asset or a portfolio to the market.

是的，史蒂夫。再說一次，那裡有很多活動部件。正如您所說，我們顯然需要非常認真地關注資本成本的變化。正如我所提到的，透過我們與所有不同類型的所有者進行高度對話，逐步實現不同的交易市場正在開始發揮作用。顯然，一些實體可能有更多的壓力點，可能與資產或投資組合的實際表現無關，但可能更具體地與可能出現的任何資本事件相關，再次與所有者將要經歷的非常不同的環境相關通過重置現有的資本結構以及如何處理該和/或不同的壓力點，將特定資產或投資組合推向市場。

So we have seen the migration and the realization that the environment has clearly changed. As I mentioned, we're anticipating very low levels of trading volume between today and the end of the year, which is somewhat unusual, particularly for the fourth quarter. But what we've been seeing with the iterative discussions with many entities is the realization that things have changed quite a bit.

因此，我們看到了遷移並意識到環境已經發生了明顯的變化。正如我所提到的，我們預計從今天到年底的交易量將非常低，這有些不尋常，特別是在第四季。但透過與許多實體的反覆討論，我們發現事情已經發生了很大變化。

In our own underwriting, we have put different hurdles in place relative to those facts, which we should. So our own cost of capital has changed, and we are again seeing a difference in bid to ask, but I will tell you that gap depending on the situation of a particular owner is shifting, and we hope that too puts us in very good shape to actually transact in a different environment and very uniquely, as I mentioned, we can do this unlike most others. So the capital that we have available, the balance sheet, our ability to transact very quickly is serving us well, and we're going to continue to exercise that opportunity as we see fit relative to the types of hurdles we hope to achieve through this very different trading environment.

在我們自己的承保中，我們已經針對這些事實設置了不同的障礙，這是我們應該做的。因此，我們自己的資本成本已經發生了變化，我們再次看到了要價的差異，但我會告訴你，取決於特定所有者情況的差距正在發生變化，我們希望這也能讓我們處於非常好的狀態正如我所提到的，我們可以在不同的環境中進行非常獨特的交易，這與大多數其他環境不同。因此，我們擁有的可用資本、資產負債表、我們快速交易的能力對我們很有幫助，我們將繼續利用我們認為合適的機會來應對我們希望透過這個目標實現的障礙類型。非常不同的交易環境。

Okay. And maybe just to clarify a few numbers that Tom threw out just when you talked about move-in rents down 18%, just to be clear, you're talking about moving rents in Q4 versus moving rents in the year ago period. And if that's true, how -- I guess, I'm just trying to look at what is the spread between the move-in rents and the move-out rents because I think that widened out a bit in Q3. And I'm just curious what your expectations are for Q4 and maybe moving into the first half of '24.

好的。也許只是為了澄清湯姆在您談到搬入租金下降 18% 時拋出的一些數字，為了明確起見，您談論的是第四季度的搬家租金與去年同期的搬家租金。如果這是真的，我想，我只是想看看遷入租金和遷出租金之間的差距是多少，因為我認為第三季這一差距有所擴大。我只是好奇你對第四季以及可能進入 24 年上半年的期望是什麼。

Yes. Good question, Steve, and clarification. So yes, I was speaking to a year-over-year metric there. And then the second component of your question about the difference between move-in and move-out rates, I think in the third quarter, that differential was about 26%. And as we've talked about in the past, we don't manage that number specifically, right? So we talk about our existing tenant rate increase program being driven by predictive analytics on individual customers and units and understanding the expected sensitivity of that customer over time and how we can influence that.

是的。好問題，史蒂夫，還有澄清。所以是的，我指的是同比指標。然後你的問題的第二個部分是關於遷入率和遷出率之間的差異，我認為在第三季度，這個差異約為 26%。正如我們過去談到的，我們並沒有專門管理這個數字，對吧？因此，我們談論我們現有的租戶加價計劃，該計劃是由對個人客戶和單位的預測分析所驅動的，並了解該客戶隨著時間的推移的預期敏感性以及我們如何影響它。

And on the flip side, right, we're dynamically managing rental rates. And so were trying to attract customers and maximize revenue through a combination of rental rate and move-in volumes. And so what spits out of that more dynamic at the local level management is that differential in gap. And again, that gap suggests that we're earning good revenue on the existing tenant base that continues to perform quite well.

另一方面，我們正在動態管理租金。因此，我們試圖透過租金率和入住量的結合來吸引客戶並最大化收入。因此，地方層級的管理更加活躍，體現出差距的差異。同樣，這一差距表明我們在現有租戶基礎上獲得了良好的收入，並且繼續表現良好。

To your question around how do we think about that gap today. Clearly, it's in a range that we've operated in, in the past. I think the first quarter, that gap was about 24%, 25%, so not dissimilar to where we are now. And as you're suggesting, as we move through the fourth quarter and into the first quarter again, based on the assumptions around move-in rents, we're likely to see that gap increase a little bit more. And that's something we're comfortable operating in.

關於你今天如何看待這一差距的問題。顯然，它處於我們過去營運的範圍內。我認為第一季的差距約為 24%、25%，所以與我們現在的情況沒有什麼不同。正如您所建議的，當我們進入第四季度並再次進入第一季時，根據有關遷入租金的假設，我們可能會看到這一差距進一步擴大。這也是我們很樂意從事的工作。

Our next question comes from Spenser Allaway with Green Street Advisors.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street Advisors 的 Spenser Allaway。

Apologize if I missed this, but are you guys able to provide some color on the cap rates as it relates to the 3Q acquisitions and the acquisitions that you're under contract or have completed so far in 4Q?

如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是你們能提供一些有關資本化率的信息嗎，因為它與第三季度的收購以及你們在第四季度簽訂的合約或迄今為止已完成的收購有關？

So maybe a little perspective on how cap rates are trending, Spenser. And then deal by deal, there's likely to be a range in the actual cap rate depending on the asset itself or the portfolio from a stabilization standpoint, et cetera. But if you kind of step back and look to where the environment was going back to 2021, we were in a range of plus 4% or so on a cap rate basis, shifted up to 2022 to 5%. This year, I would say we're at a 6% handle trending potentially to 7%. So again, reflective of the change in cost of capital.

史賓塞，也許對上限利率的趨勢有一點看法。然後逐筆交易，實際上限利率可能會存在一個範圍，具體取決於資產本身或從穩定的角度來看的投資組合等等。但如果你退後一步，看看 2021 年的環境會怎樣，你會發現我們的上限利率在 4% 左右，到 2022 年則上升到 5%。今年，我想說我們的處理率是 6%，有可能達到 7%。再次反映了資本成本的變動。

Steve's question about this gap from a seller expectation standpoint, does take a little bit of time from a realization standpoint, but we do see that trend continuing. And we're using that as an opportunity to continue to find appropriately priced assets to bring into the portfolio. And as I mentioned, we've got a number of different situations playing through that we're confident at some point will likely trade, it just takes some period of time depending on the pressure points and the timing of a particular seller.

史蒂夫從賣家期望的角度提出的關於這種差距的問題，從實現的角度來看確實需要一點時間，但我們確實看到這種趨勢仍在繼續。我們以此為契機，繼續尋找價格合適的資產納入投資組合。正如我所提到的，我們遇到了許多不同的情況，我們有信心在某個時候可能會進行交易，這只是需要一段時間，具體取決於壓力點和特定賣家的時機。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then are you guys able to provide any update, if there is any, on the integration of your new tenant insurance platform?

好的。這非常有幫助。那麼你們能否提供有關新租戶保險平台整合的任何更新（如果有的話）？

Sure. So I think you're speaking to our savvy program.

當然。所以我認為你正在談論我們精明的計劃。

Exactly. Yes, right.

確切地。是的，沒錯。

So we announced that we would be launching that program here in next month in November. And it's an initiative, we're launching the industry to offer our tenant insurance program to other operators. This really came out of our third-party management business in dialogue with some of the operators, they've continued to like to operate the portfolios themselves in our dialogue, but they've said, "Hey, but what about that tenant insurance piece? Can we talk about that on a stand-alone basis, and they were intrigued by that.

因此，我們宣布將於 11 月下個月在這裡啟動該計劃。這是一項舉措，我們正在啟動這個行業，向其他營運商提供我們的租戶保險計劃。這確實來自我們與一些運營商對話的第三方管理業務，他們仍然喜歡在我們的對話中自己運營投資組合，但他們說，“嘿，但是租戶保險部分怎麼樣？ ?我們可以單獨討論這個問題嗎？他們對此很感興趣。

As you know, we share a portion of the premiums that we collect on our third-party managed properties with the owners of those facilities. So we've been working to streamline and simplify our tenant insurance process, including making it easy to use digitally, something our customers have embraced over the past couple of years, and we think the industry can benefit from. So in that press release, we noted that we've been working with Storable, which is the largest software provider in the industry to be able to offer that same experience on their property management software, and we're going to be launching that starting here in November.

如您所知，我們與這些設施的所有者分享我們在第三方管理的物業上收取的部分保費。因此，我們一直在努力簡化我們的租戶保險流程，包括使其易於數位化使用，這是我們的客戶在過去幾年中所接受的，我們認為整個行業可以從中受益。因此，在那份新聞稿中，我們指出我們一直在與 Storable 合作，Storable 是業內最大的軟體供應商，能夠在其物業管理軟體上提供相同的體驗，我們將從十一月在這裡。

In terms of the opportunity, it's obviously very early days. We're launching it next month. But the addressable market, frankly, could be larger than third-party management for those that are interested in a different tenant insurance component, but just getting started there. And I'd say stepping back, it's just another way for us to create a win-win with other owners in the industry and build relationships that could bear fruit in a multitude of different ways over time.

就機會而言，現在顯然還為時過早。我們將於下個月推出它。但坦白說，對於那些對不同租戶保險組件感興趣但剛開始的人來說，潛在市場可能比第三方管理更大。我想說的是，這只是我們與行業其他所有者創造雙贏的另一種方式，並建立可以隨著時間的推移以多種不同方式結出成果的關係。

Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

Just hoping to follow up on a prior point on the ECR commentary. So has the quantum and/or pace of increases that you're looking to pass through to existing customers moderated throughout this year? And do you expect -- and if not, do you expect that to happen in '24 at some point if the current environment continues into next year?

只是希望跟進 ECR 評論中的先前觀點。那麼，今年您希望向現有客戶提供的成長量和/或成長速度是否有所放緩？如果目前的環境持續到明年，您是否預計——如果沒有，您是否預計這種情況會在 24 年的某個時候發生？

Yes. Juan, it's moderated throughout the year as that cost to replace component has gotten more costly, right? I mean stepping back a couple of years ago, right, we're in an environment where in many markets, we had a benefit to replace, which is pretty unusual in the sector, and now we're back to a point in time where there's a cost to replace. And so as we move through this year, and frankly, as we move through last year, too, the cost to replace grew. And so on a year-over-year basis, the contributions from existing customer rate increases has declined modestly year-over-year.

是的。胡安，由於更換組件的成本變得更加昂貴，全年情況都在放緩，對吧？我的意思是退一步，對吧，我們所處的環境是，在許多市場中，我們有一個可以替代的好處，這在該行業是非常不尋常的，現在我們又回到了這樣一個時間點：更換是有費用的。因此，當我們度過今年時，坦白說，當我們度過去年時，更換成本也在增加。因此，與去年同期相比，現有客戶費率成長的貢獻年比略有下降。

The flip side of that is the new move-in volume that we've been getting really over the last year is supportive, right? Because the more tenants that are coming in will receive those increases over time. And so that will benefit the 2023 back half as well as 2024, given the significant volumes of moving activity we've seen.

另一方面是我們去年獲得的新入住量確實是支持性的，對嗎？因為隨著時間的推移，越來越多的租戶將收到這些增加。鑑於我們已經看到大量的搬家活動，這將有利於 2023 年下半年以及 2024 年。

And then I was just hoping you could spend a couple minutes on Los Angeles. I know you had some benefit starting last year as the rental restrictions rolled off. Where are we in that? Is that done? And any benefit that is going to wear off as we kind of roll the calendar forward a year?

然後我只是希望你能在洛杉磯待幾分鐘。我知道從去年開始，隨著租金限制的取消，您已經得到了一些好處。我們在哪裡？這樣就完成了嗎？當我們將日曆向前滾動一年時，任何好處都會消失嗎？

Yes. Sure, Juan. Yes, just to step back, as you know, Los Angeles is our largest market. We've got 229 properties here in the L.A. Basin, another 26 properties in San Diego, but as a full Southern California portfolio, L.A., in particular, we're beyond the correction or the opportunity that was at hand based on the price constraints that we had for that 3-year period.

是的。當然，胡安。是的，退一步來說，如您所知，洛杉磯是我們最大的市場。我們在洛杉磯盆地擁有 229 處房產，在聖地亞哥還有 26 處房產，但作為完整的南加州投資組合，尤其是洛杉磯，我們超出了基於價格限制的修正或現有機會我們在那三年期間擁有的。

So the level of performance you're seeing now is truly indicative quality of the market and the strength of that size portfolio, the location and the overall dynamics that we see here in Southern California continue to provide, which is, again, very, very healthy levels of new customer activity, very healthy levels of existing customer behavior in a market that, again, we have a very outsized level of not only presence but a very strong portfolio. We've talked about this to some degree, recently, but it's also a portfolio that we've touched holistically from our Property of Tomorrow program.

因此，您現在看到的表現水平確實代表了市場的品質以及該規模投資組合的實力、我們在南加州繼續提供的位置和整體動態，這再次非常非常市場中新客戶活動的健康水平、現有客戶行為的水平非常健康，我們不僅擁有非常龐大的存在水平，而且擁有非常強大的產品組合。最近，我們在某種程度上討論了這個問題，但這也是我們在「明日地產」計畫中全面觸及的一個投資組合。

We've invested $80-plus million in the assets to pull them into a very ideal position relative to curb appeal, other attributes that we've added through Property of Tomorrow enhancements, et cetera. So all things considered the market is humming along quite well. And we think we'll continue to see good activity and good performance going forward.

我們已經在這些資產上投資了 80 多萬美元，將它們拉到一個非常理想的位置，相對於抑制吸引力、我們透過「明日地產」增強功能添加的其他屬性等等。因此，從各方面考慮，市場都運作良好。我們認為，未來我們將繼續看到良好的活動和良好的表現。

Just one last quick follow-up, if you don't mind. You mentioned occupancy was down 60 basis points year-over-year at the end of October. What's the absolute occupancy percentage, if you don't mind sharing that?

如果您不介意的話，請進行最後一次快速跟進。您提到 10 月底入住率年減 60 個基點。如果您不介意分享的話，絕對入住率是多少？

The occupancy percentage as we sit here today, I'm not sure, is directly relevant to what the period-end occupancies are going to be. Obviously, we're getting towards the end of the month. Today, we'll be a move out day at many of our facilities. So I guess, I suggest that not too dissimilar to where we were in September. The occupancies are north of 93% today but expect them to be in the 92s as we finish the business day up here.

我不確定我們今天坐在這裡的入住率是否與期末入住率有直接關係。顯然，我們即將迎來月底。今天，我們的許多設施將迎來搬遷日。所以我想，我建議這與我們九月的情況並沒有太大不同。今天的入住率超過 93%，但預計當我們結束這裡的工作日時，入住率將達到 92%。

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

I just -- I guess I wanted to ask about the market in general, just listening to your comments and thinking about is there an equilibrium like some point where, I don't know if it's national occupancy, something to alleviate the pressure on new rates? Or do you not really care because your volumes are so strong? Like how are you thinking about that as we're trying to forecast and think about the coming months into '24.

我只是——我想我想問一下整個市場，只是聽聽你們的評論，思考是否存在一個平衡點，我不知道這是否是全國性的佔用，可以減輕新的壓力費率？還是你真的不在乎，因為你的銷量這麼大？就像我們正在嘗試預測和思考 24 年後的幾個月一樣，您對此有何看法。

Yes, jeff, there's a lot there. I guess what I'd suggest is -- if you think about this year, right, we came into this year expecting that the move-in environment would be more competitive. And that was based on our outlook and what we were seeing, no question, housing having a component of that with record -- last 20-year record high, mortgage rates, as Joe mentioned, that's led to a slowdown in demand.

是的，傑夫，那裡有很多東西。我想我的建議是──如果你想想今年，對吧，我們今年預計搬入環境會更具競爭力。這是基於我們的前景和我們所看到的，毫無疑問，住房有一個組成部分，即過去 20 年創紀錄的高抵押貸款利率，正如喬提到的那樣，這導致了需求放緩。

The flip side is we've seen good activity from renters as we've highlighted, but the move-in environment has gotten more competitive, right? Our facilities, in particular, if you rewind a couple of years, we're full. And frankly, we were turning customers away in 2021. Because we were so full, and we were pushing rate. And so the combination of that dynamic and where we are now, has led to a correction. And I think in terms of moving rents, maybe an overcorrection in certain markets where the industry as a whole is reacting to an environment where the larger operators are taking their typical move-in volumes and the overall demand environment is a little softer than where it was maybe 2 years ago.

另一方面，正如我們所強調的那樣，我們已經看到租戶的良好活動，但入住環境變得更具競爭力，對吧？尤其是我們的設施，如果倒回幾年，我們已經滿了。坦白說，我們在 2021 年拒絕了顧客。因為我們已經吃飽了，而且我們還提高了價格。因此，這種動態與我們現在所處的位置結合，導致了修正。我認為，就搬遷租金而言，在某些市場上可能存在過度修正，整個行業正在對較大運營商正在採取其典型搬入量的環境做出反應，而整體需求環境比其所處的環境要軟一些。大概是兩年前的事了。

But demand continues to be relatively healthy if you go back in time for self-storage, it's just nowhere near what it was in 2021. And no question that's led to declining move-in rents. And as we look at how our business has performed through this year, that has been the one notable component of the revenue algorithm that has underpunched expectations, i.e., moving rents have been lower than what we anticipated. The good thing is on the flip side, moving volumes, to your point, have been strong. The existing tenant behavior has been good, move-outs have moderated. So obviously, leading to us increasing our outlook as we move through the year. but I don't want to shy away from the fact that move-in rents have been a particular soft spot as we move through the year.

但如果回顧過去的自助倉儲，需求仍然相對健康，只是遠不及 2021 年的水平。毫無疑問，這導致了入住租金的下降。當我們審視今年我們的業務表現時，這是收入演算法中一個低於預期的顯著組成部分，即行動租金低於我們的預期。好的一面是，就您而言，成交量一直很強勁。現有租戶行為良好，遷出情況放緩。很明顯，這導致我們在這一年中增強了我們的前景。但我不想迴避這樣一個事實：隨著我們這一年的搬遷，遷入租金一直是一個特別的弱點。

And yes, on top of that, Jeff, you again, need to be reflective of the 3 tools that we continue to speak to, marketing, promotions and rental rates. Those are tools that are highly interrelated right down to a per property and per customer basis relative to the way that we can optimize the utility of each of those with the data that we have, the amount of demand, volume and knowledge that we have relative to any particular trade area. More often than not, we're typically competing with owners that have far few tools of any depth and/or ability to judge and react to any of the dynamics that Tom just spoke to.

是的，最重要的是，傑夫，你又需要反思我們繼續談論的 3 種工具，即行銷、促銷和租金。這些工具是高度相關的，具體到每個財產和每個客戶的基礎上，我們可以利用我們擁有的數據、需求量、數量和我們擁有的相關知識來優化每個工具的效用。任何特定的貿易區域。通常情況下，我們通常會與業主競爭，他們幾乎沒有任何深度的工具和/或能力來判斷和對湯姆剛才談到的任何動態做出反應。

These, frankly, are tools that are deep seated. We've used them in a whole variety of different economic arenas. Clearly, the last 3 years or so, most operators have had to rely on those tools very frequently. We're very good at using those tools. And frankly, we've become better even over the near term relative to our own utility of data, the knowledge that we have, and we'll continue to unlock relative to all the operational efficiencies as well. So we feel very encouraged that we're using those tools to not only drive top-of-funnel demand, but conversion to the move-in activity that we're reporting, and we're going to continue to keep them very sharp and active.

坦白說，這些都是根深蒂固的工具。我們已將它們用於各種不同的經濟領域。顯然，在過去三年左右的時間裡，大多數操作員必須非常頻繁地依賴這些工具。我們非常擅長使用這些工具。坦白說，就我們自己的數據效用和我們所擁有的知識而言，即使在短期內，我們也變得更好，而且我們也將繼續提高所有營運效率。因此，我們感到非常鼓舞，因為我們使用這些工具不僅可以推動漏斗頂部的需求，還可以推動我們報告的遷入活動的轉化，我們將繼續保持它們的敏銳度和積極的。

Great. Very helpful. And just one question, a clarification, please. On the 60-basis points year-over-year for occupancy, was that the end of period or the average? If it was end of period, can you state the average?

偉大的。很有幫助。只是一個問題，請澄清一下。入住率年增 60 個基點，這是期末還是平均值？如果是期末，你能說出平均值嗎？

For the month of October. Well, we started the month at down 120 basis points. We're finishing up down 60 basis points. So the average is right about in the midpoint there.

十月。嗯，我們這個月伊始就下跌了 120 個基點。我們最終下調了 60 個基點。所以平均值就在中間點附近。

Our next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

First question, I just wanted to follow up on the last question. about move-in rents. Tom, you talked about moving volumes being stronger than expected. And it sounds like you've taken share from other operators. Joe, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that customers are choosing public storage more and more. In this environment, a more competitive environment, I guess really without sort of an increase in overall demand, even if occupancy stabilizes in Public Storage's portfolio, which I think the high end of your guidance now assumes at year-end, do you foresee the ability for move-in rents to stabilize or begin to stabilize or will they continue to drift lower until overall industry occupancy really stabilizes and maybe find a bottom?

第一個問題，我只是想跟進最後一個問題。關於入住租金。湯姆，您談到移動量強於預期。聽起來你已經從其他運營商那裡搶走了份額。喬，您在準備好的演講中提到，客戶越來越多地選擇公共儲存。在這種環境下，競爭更加激烈，我想即使公共儲存投資組合的佔用率穩定下來，總體需求也不會增加，我認為您的指導方針的高端現在假設在年底，您是否預見到入住租金是否有能力穩定或開始穩定，還是會繼續走低，直到整個行業入住率真正穩定並可能觸底？

Yes. I think that there's a number of factors at play. And certainly, as I noted, we were in an environment where moving rents, you pick a market move in rents in Miami, for instance, we're up significantly in the 2020, 2021, 2022 time period, and we're giving some of that back. And I think as an industry, no question that's playing through. But as we think about the different components at play as we head into '24 and '25, housing has gotten a lot of airtime this year around its impact to demand. No question, that's a component of demand. And that's been softer.

是的。我認為有很多因素在起作用。當然，正如我所指出的，我們所處的環境是租金變動，例如，你可以選擇邁阿密租金的市場變動，我們在 2020 年、2021 年、2022 年期間大幅上漲，我們將給予一些那個背影。我認為作為一個行業，毫無疑問這一點正在發揮作用。但隨著我們進入 24 世紀和 25 世紀，當我們思考發揮作用的不同組成部分時，今年住房市場因其對需求的影響而受到廣泛關注。毫無疑問，這是需求的一部分。而且已經變得更柔和了。

If you look at existing home sales over time, they've been in a range of, call it, 4 million to 7 million existing home sales per year. We're trading right around that 4 million today, which if you go back and look at the financial crisis or other periods where the housing market is -- has slowed down pretty consistent. So we worked through that decline as we move through 2023. And -- so that's helpful as we think about the setup into '24 and '25 and the fact that existing home sales aren't likely to take another significant leg lower. But obviously, we'll see how that plays out.

如果你觀察一段時間以來的現房銷售情況，你會發現每年的現房銷售量一直在 400 萬至 700 萬套之間。今天我們的交易量約為 400 萬，如果你回顧一下金融危機或房地產市場的其他時期，這個數字已經相當一致地放緩。因此，當我們進入 2023 年時，我們就克服了這種下降。而且，當我們考慮進入 24 和 25 年的情況以及現有房屋銷售不太可能再次大幅下降的事實時，這很有幫助。但顯然，我們會看看結果如何。

The other side is renters and people that are running our space at home, there's less movement. And frankly, those are good storage customers, and they tend to have longer length of stays in some instances, in many instances. And so we've seen that benefit as we move through this year, longer length of stays for move-ins this year and have been getting good customers, which again supports '24 and '25, supports occupancy, I think, for the industry overall.

另一邊是租客和在家經營我們空間的人，活動較少。坦白說，這些都是很好的儲存客戶，在某些情況下，在許多情況下，他們往往會停留更長的時間。因此，隨著今年的進展，我們已經看到了這一好處，今年入住的停留時間更長，並且已經獲得了良好的客戶，這再次支持“24”和“25”，我認為，為該行業提供了入住率全面的。

So those are all helpful as we move into '24 and '25. And I'd add to that, the fact that the development environment continues to be quite challenging. Construction costs are up over the last several years, city processes continue to be challenging with understaffing and delays. And no question, cost of capital in the construction lending environment is going to lead to lower levels of deliveries as we go into '24 and '25. All of those things are helpful as we think about stabilizing rental rates in some of the markets that maybe I even characterize as maybe overcorrecting in some instances.

因此，當我們進入 24 世紀和 25 世紀時，這些都是有幫助的。我還要補充一點，開發環境仍然非常具有挑戰性。過去幾年，建築成本不斷上升，城市建設過程因人手不足和延誤而持續面臨挑戰。毫無疑問，隨著我們進入“24 年”和“25 年”，建築貸款環境中的資本成本將導致交付水準下降。當我們考慮穩定某些市場的租金率時，所有這些事情都是有幫助的，我甚至可能認為這些市場在某些情況下可能矯枉過正。

I also think getting into the busy season next year will be quite helpful, right? We go into a time period in the spring where seasonally, you're going to see more demand. This year, we didn't have much of a season, partially attributable to the housing environment. So the comps from a seasonal standpoint next year are a little easier. And we'll have to the benefit of what plays through in '24 to the dynamics with moving rental rates heading into March, April and May of next year.

我也覺得明年進入旺季會有很大幫助，對吧？我們進入春季的一段時間，從季節角度來看，您會看到更多的需求。今年我們的季節不多，部分原因是住房環境。因此，從季節性的角度來看，明年的比賽要容易一些。我們必須受益於 24 年的動態，即明年 3 月、4 月和 5 月租金率的變化。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my other question is around the development and expansion pipeline, which decreased a little bit in the quarter versus last quarter. I realize it's just one quarter, not necessarily a trend, but the environment is more challenging today. And I'm just curious if that is intentional at all as you look for either rents to stabilize or greater certainty around lease-up or if it's just timing related. But really, just wondering if your return requirements maybe to start new projects have really changed at all in the current environment.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我的另一個問題是關於開發和擴張管道，本季與上季相比略有下降。我意識到這只是一個季度，不一定是趨勢，但今天的環境更具挑戰性。我只是好奇這是否是故意的，因為你尋求租金穩定或租賃具有更大的確定性，或者只是與時間相關。但實際上，只是想知道在當前環境下您啟動新專案的回報要求是否真的改變了。

So yes, to, again, give full perspective on the focus and the priority we continue to put into our development and redevelopment capabilities. It continues to be our most vibrant opportunity from a return on invested capital standpoint. So we think that ironically or counterintuitively, this is actually even a better environment for us to source and compete for: a, land sites and; b, work certain properties through entitlement and development processes where others are retrenching.

所以，是的，再次充分考慮我們繼續投入開發和再開發能力的重點和優先事項。從投資資本報酬率的角度來看，這仍然是我們最具活力的機會。因此，諷刺或違反直覺的是，我們認為這實際上是我們採購和競爭的更好環境：a、土地； b、透過權利和開發流程來利用某些資產，而其他資產則在緊縮。

The lending environment particularly tied to construction loans continues to be much more constrained. In fact, with the pressure into regional banks where most of the construction lending goes on, particularly tied to one-off construction loans for self-storage, again, very, very tough hurdles for any developer to meet very differently than we've seen over the last several years. This continues to be a good opportunity for us to compete very differently and ideally look for expansion opportunities for the portfolio as a whole.

尤其是與建築貸款相關的貸款環境仍受到更多限制。事實上，由於大部分建築貸款都在地方銀行承受壓力，特別是與用於自存儲的一次性建築貸款有關，對於任何開發商來說，再次面臨非常非常困難的障礙，這與我們所看到的非常不同在過去的幾年裡。對我們來說，這仍然是一個很好的機會，以非常不同的方式進行競爭，並理想地為整個投資組合尋找擴張機會。

The slight reduction, Todd, to your point, was just a -- that was just a one-off quarter impact from some deliveries that took place. But the team is working very hard to continue to not only operate in an environment where, yes, some of the hurdles are being adjusted, but development is a long game as well. We're dealing with multiyear processes not only to get a particular asset approved and launch from a construction standpoint, but then a number of years beyond that to get them stabilized. So in this environment, particularly, you've got to have very strong fortitude to get through those time frames, particularly with cost of capital being very different. But we look at this as an ideal opportunity for us to continue to leverage the skills, the strong balance sheet and our knowledge market to market.

托德，就你的觀點而言，小幅減少只是——這只是一些交付所帶來的一次性季度影響。但團隊正在非常努力地工作，不僅要繼續在一個環境中運作，是的，一些障礙正在調整，而且開發也是一場漫長的遊戲。我們正在處理多年的流程，不僅是為了從建設的角度獲得特定資產的批准和啟動，而且是為了讓它們穩定下來。因此，特別是在這種環境下，您必須有非常強大的毅力才能度過這些時間範圍，特別是在資本成本非常不同的情況下。但我們認為這是一個理想的機會，讓我們能夠繼續利用我們的技能、強大的資產負債表和我們的市場知識。

The team is well seated nationally. We continue to find new and different opportunities region by region across the country, and we're going to continue to work hard to not only unlock ground-up development, but redevelopment activity as well. So it continues to be a very vibrant part of the business that we're going to continue to focus on very strongly.

該團隊在全國排名靠前。我們繼續在全國各地尋找新的、不同的機會，我們將繼續努力，不僅開啟基礎開發，而且開啟重建活動。因此，它仍然是我們將繼續大力關注的業務中非常活躍的一部分。

Our next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to follow up, you mentioned expectations of lower deliveries, I think, industry-wide in '24 and '25. Is there -- can you just quantify that a little more in terms of either dollars invested you're seeing in the space or a percent increase in existing supply? And are there any markets where you see outsized growth coming up for one reason or another or anywhere it looks particularly favorable, meaning like very little growth?

我只是想跟進一下，你提到了 24 年和 25 年全行業交付量下降的預期。您能否以您在該領域看到的投資金額或現有供應量的百分比成長來量化這一點？是否有任何市場因這樣或那樣的原因而大幅成長，或在任何看起來特別有利的地方，意味著成長很少？

Yes. Smedes, a lot of moving parts there, but step by step, and we've been speaking to this for some time. We've been seeing the unusually difficult hurdles you go through to get projects, a, approved and then b, funded. And now again, with the constraints I just spoke to in the lending environment, getting them into production themselves. So statistically, we think most of the information out there is not accurate because it's not reflective of the continued deceleration in annual deliveries. From a step-by-step basis going from this year to '24 and likely into '25, we think that the pool of assets that had been predicted to deliver are probably shrinking by plus or minus at least 10% or more on a per annum basis.

是的。 Smedes，那裡有很多移動的部分，但都是一步一步的，我們已經討論這個問題有一段時間了。我們已經看到了您在獲得專案（a）批准和b（資助）方面所經歷的異常困難的障礙。現在，由於我剛才談到的貸款環境中的限制，讓它們自己投入生產。因此，從統計數據來看，我們認為大多數資訊都不準確，因為它沒有反映出年度交付量的持續減速。從今年到 24 年，甚至可能到 25 年，我們認為，預計交付的資產池可能會按年至少正負 10% 或以上萎縮。年度基礎。

We had kind of ratcheted down to a delivery level nationally, plus or minus $3 billion or so of assets in the 2022 to 2023 time frame, and that's going to continue to notch down in our view based on all the constraints that I just spoke to. It's a very good thing for the industry as a whole. Can't really point to any number of markets that at the moment are overburdened from a delivery standpoint outside of potentially Las Vegas, Phoenix to a degree, Portland starting to work, but a little bit of an outstretched level of new deliveries in that market as well. But frankly, the good news is the amount of deliveries that have come to the market over the last couple of years has been slower, and it's likely to continue to get slower from a volume standpoint going into the next couple of years.

我們已經逐步降低到全國範圍內的交付水平，在 2022 年至 2023 年的時間範圍內增加或減少 30 億美元左右的資產，並且根據我剛才談到的所有限制，我們認為這一水平將繼續下降。對於整個產業來說，這是一件非常好的事情。從交付的角度來看，目前無法真正指出有多少個市場負擔過重，除了拉斯維加斯、菲尼克斯在一定程度上、波特蘭開始工作之外，但該市場的新交付水平有點超出預期以及。但坦白說，好消息是過去幾年進入市場的交付量一直在放緩，而且從未來幾年的數量角度來看，交付量可能會繼續放緩。

Great. And then I just wanted to ask you, you mentioned that I think in the past that renters tend to have a longer length of stay. So are you seeing that in the portfolio now? Could you just talk a little bit more about where length of stay is and the changes you might be seeing?

偉大的。然後我想問你，你提到我認為過去租屋者的停留時間往往較長。那麼您現在在投資組合中看到了這一點嗎？您能否多談談停留時間以及您可能會看到的變化？

Yes. In terms of length of stay overall, continues to be quite strong. So we've spoken a lot over the last couple of years in terms of how that's extended from, call it, 32, 33 months on average. If you take a snapshot of all of our tenants in place pre-pandemic to more like 35, 36 and that persists today. And that's persisting in an environment we're obviously adding more new tenants, which brings that average down. So continue to see strong trends there. .

是的。就整體停留時間而言，仍然相當強勁。因此，過去幾年我們就如何延長平均 32、33 個月的時間進行了許多討論。如果你對我們在大流行前的所有租戶進行快照，大約有 35、36 個租戶，這種情況一直持續到今天。在我們明顯增加更多新租戶的環境中，這種情況持續存在，這導致平均水平下降。因此，繼續看到那裡的強勁趨勢。 。

Customers that have been with us for longer than 2 years continues to punch well above where we were pre-pandemic in the 40s as a percentage of the total tenant base and that continues to be the most stable and important component of the tenant base.

與我們合作超過 2 年的客戶佔總租戶總數的百分比繼續遠高於 40 年代大流行前的水平，並且仍然是租戶群中最穩定和最重要的組成部分。

Our next question comes from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Eric Luebchow。

I wanted to go back to the ECRI discussion from earlier. I think you talked about higher cost of replaces somewhat moderated your ability to push through ECRIs to some degree. But does that dynamic shift at all, given you're loading more new customers now at lower rates? Can you push ECRIs harder and faster with this cohort given the cost to replace presumably for them is slightly lower than your in-place customer?

我想回到早些時候 ECRI 的討論。我認為您談到更高的更換成本在某種程度上削弱了您推動 ECRI 的能力。但考慮到您現在正在以更低的費率吸引更多新客戶，這種動態是否會改變？鑑於更換 ECRI 的成本可能略低於您現有的客戶，您能否更努力、更快地推動這群人？

That's spot on, Eric. So as we talk about the tenant base overall, right, the cost to replace has gone higher. But those new tenants that have moved in this year, right, don't have that same dynamic and are more like customers in prior years with a lower cost to replace and are likely to receive higher magnitude and frequency of increases, which is supportive as we move more customers in through 2023 into '24 and '25.

說得對，埃里克。因此，當我們談論整體租戶基礎時，更換成本更高了。但今年搬入的新租戶沒有同樣的活力，更像是前幾年的客戶，更換成本較低，並且可能會獲得更高的幅度和頻率的增長，這是支持性的到2023 年，我們會將更多客戶轉移到'24 和'25。

Okay. Great. And then just one last one. Maybe you could touch on the cost side. You've seen marketing expenses, payroll, utilities continue to increase, especially with an uncertain demand backdrop into next year, how -- maybe you can talk about how effectively you'll be able to manage your costs and any cost line items that we should be aware of that will be pressure points in your NOI growth outlook for next year?

好的。偉大的。然後只有最後一張。也許你可以談談成本方面。您已經看到行銷費用、工資、公用事業費用持續增加，特別是在明年需求不確定的背景下，也許您可以談談您將如何有效地管理您的成本以及我們所控制的任何成本項目。應該意識到這將成為您明年 NOI 成長前景的壓力點嗎？

Yes. So I guess, starting with marketing, right? Marketing is the one that this quarter was up most notably. We continue to get very good returns on the marketing spend that we're utilizing. And that is a process that we manage dynamically at the local level in conjunction with promotions and rental rates, as Joe highlighted earlier. If you look at marketing spend over time, we've historically been in a range of, say, 1% to 3% of revenue spent on marketing. We got all the way down to 1% or so in 2021. And I think this quarter, we sat right around 2%, 2.1%. So there continues to be a room at least from a historical lens for us to continue to increase that and see good return associated with that and we'll do that.

是的。所以我想，從行銷開始，對嗎？行銷是本季成長最顯著的一個。我們所利用的行銷支出持續獲得非常好的回報。正如喬之前強調的那樣，我們在地方層級結合促銷和租金動態管理這一流程。如果你觀察一段時間內的行銷支出，你會發現我們的行銷支出一直佔收入的 1% 到 3%。到 2021 年，我們一路下降到 1% 左右。我認為這個季度，我們的比例正好在 2%、2.1% 左右。因此，至少從歷史角度來看，我們仍然有繼續增加這一點的空間，並看到與之相關的良好回報，我們會這樣做。

I would think about marketing spend on the expense line item certainly will create higher levels of expense growth, but that's going to be an NOI positive investment given the returns we're seeing. The other line items, utilities as well as property payroll continue to be areas that are strategic initiatives that we outlined at Investor Day continue to bear fruit. So as we close 2023, we will meet our 25% payroll hour reduction that we highlighted at Investor Day. That's helped to offset as we've gone through initiatives around technology as well as specialization and centralization of property roles that are leading to career advancement opportunities and as well as good efficiencies and good customer experience.

我認為費用項目上的行銷支出肯定會帶來更高水準的費用成長，但考慮到我們所看到的回報，這將是一項 NOI 積極投資。其他項目、公用事業以及房地產薪資仍然是我們在投資者日概述的策略舉措的領域，並將繼續取得成果。因此，在 2023 年結束時，我們將實現我們在投資者日強調的 25% 工資工時削減。這有助於抵消，因為我們已經實施了圍繞技術以及房地產角色專業化和集中化的舉措，這些舉措帶來了職業發展機會以及良好的效率和良好的客戶體驗。

So that's one side that will continue through 2024 to benefit us. And the other is our solar power programs. We'd like to put solar on over 1,000 roofs. And today, we're sitting with solar. We'll finish the year with around 500 of those complete and we think there's more to go there, which will help offset utility pressure. And in addition to that, be good for the environment and our carbon emissions.

因此，這一方面將持續到 2024 年，讓我們受益。另一個是我們的太陽能計劃。我們希望在 1,000 多個屋頂上安裝太陽能。今天，我們正在討論太陽能。今年年底，我們將完成大約 500 個項目，我們認為還有更多項目需要完成，這將有助於抵消公用事業壓力。除此之外，還有利於環境和我們的碳排放。

Our next question is from Keegan Carl with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Keegan Carl。

Yes. So I hate to belabor the point on ECRI, but maybe just on 4Q in particular, when do you guys typically stop sending rates for the year? And does the current operating environment change that plan at all various historical levels?

是的。所以我不想在 ECRI 上詳細闡述這一點，但也許只是在第四季度，你們通常什麼時候停止發送今年的費率？目前的營運環境是否會改變各個歷史層面的計畫？

No. As I've noted, the existing customer base continues to perform as expected, and frankly, very stable versus the prior several years, which is encouraging. So our program continues. It's part of how we manage revenues. And that's not going to change. It won't change in the fourth quarter and don't anticipate it to change into '24 barring any significant shock or change. So that continues to be a strong point as it relates to the overall customer base, and I wouldn't point to anything significant there.

不會。正如我所指出的，現有的客戶群繼續按預期運行，坦白說，與前幾年相比非常穩定，這是令人鼓舞的。所以我們的計劃繼續進行。這是我們管理收入的一部分。這不會改變。第四季不會發生變化，除非出現任何重大衝擊或變化，預計到 24 季也不會發生變化。因此，這仍然是一個強點，因為它關係到整個客戶群，我不會指出任何重要的事情。

I guess just to clarify though, you're comfortable sending increases throughout the entire year. Like the quarter, you're not going to stop around the holidays. I thought that was a trend that's typically present in storage.

不過，我想澄清一下，您可以放心地全年發送增加的金額。與本季度一樣，您不會在假期期間停下來。我認為這是儲存領域通常存在的趨勢。

No, we send increases throughout the year.

不，我們全年都會增加發送量。

Okay. And then just shifting gears here. So you guys obviously over and on your interest income in the quarter just given the hold on to cash prior to closing on simply. Just curious what a good run rate for this would be going forward?

好的。然後就在這裡換檔。因此，你們顯然已經超出了本季的利息收入，只是在交易結束之前保留了現金。只是好奇未來的良好運作率是多少？

Yes, that's a good question. So as everyone is aware, we announced the Simply transaction on Monday in July, we did the financing associated with that transaction on the same day, which was meant to match fund both the acquisition as well as the financing associated with it. In hindsight, that looks pretty good because interest rates are up over 100 basis points since that time period. But the other benefit was we obviously sat on that cash for a period of time.

是的，這是一個好問題。眾所周知，我們在 7 月的星期一宣布了 Simply 交易，我們在同一天進行了與該交易相關的融資，這旨在為收購以及與之相關的融資提供匹配資金。事後看來，這看起來相當不錯，因為自那段時間以來利率上漲了 100 個基點以上。但另一個好處是我們顯然持有這筆現金一段時間。

And believe it or not, we actually -- we eked out a positive spread on that cash versus our financing costs given where we can earn on cash. About 3 basis points, so nothing to write home about. But it certainly led to both higher interest income for the quarter as well as higher interest expense because we were sitting on that cash, and we had raised it for a period of time. So no real impact to FFO, but certainly drove incremental.

不管你相信與否，我們實際上——考慮到我們可以從現金中賺錢，我們在現金與融資成本之間取得了積極的利差。大約3個基點，所以沒什麼好寫的。但這肯定導致了本季利息收入的增加以及利息支出的增加，因為我們坐擁這筆現金，而且我們已經籌集了一段時間。因此，對 FFO 沒有真正的影響，但肯定會推動增量。

And then if you think about that interest and other income line, right, you're just doing some simple math, $2.2 billion in cash and sitting on it earning a little over 5%. I think we get the numbers for 50 days of about a $15 million benefit during the quarter. So you could think about that as not recurring. We won't be sitting on that $2.2 billion of cash in the fourth quarter.

然後，如果你考慮一下利息和其他收入線，對吧，你只是做了一些簡單的計算，22 億美元的現金，坐在那裡賺取略高於 5% 的利潤。我認為我們得到了本季度 50 天的大約 1500 萬美元福利的數字。所以你可以認為這種情況不會再發生。第四季我們不會坐擁那 22 億美元的現金。

Our next question comes from Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ron Kamdem。

Just two quick ones. I think you guys were one of the first this year to talk about the potential of same-store revenue to go negative. And obviously, the guidance in 4Q implies that it does that and I think we could sort of use your wisdom as we're thinking about sort of next year.

就兩個快的。我認為你們是今年第一批談論同店收入可能出現負數的人之一。顯然，第四季度的指導意味著它做到了這一點，我認為我們可以在考慮明年的時候利用您的智慧。

If I go back to that move in move-out spread down 26% in 3Q, which got a little bit worse, it sort of suggests that, that things are still sort of decelerating. So the question really is, like as we're thinking about next year, is it occupancy response? Is it length of say? Like what sort of factors should we be watching to get a sense of the direction of the same-store trend into next year?

如果我回顧一下第三季遷出價差下降 26% 的情況（情況變得更糟），這在某種程度上表明，情況仍在放緩。所以問題實際上是，就像我們在考慮明年一樣，這是入住率反應嗎？是說的長度嗎？例如我們該關注哪些因素來了解明年同店趨勢的走向？

Well, Ron, I think there's a few things there that I'll pick out and comment on. One is, certainly, we started 2023 at a point of particular strength and rents were significantly higher. I've commented on some of the positives and negatives that have played through this year. But no question, growth rates have moderated through the year. I commented on move-in rates, in particular, have been softer than expected. And I think that's certainly the case as we move through the third and the fourth quarter here.

嗯，羅恩，我想我會挑選一些事情並發表評論。當然，其中之一是，我們在 2023 年伊始處於一個特別強勁的時期，租金明顯上漲。我已經評論了今年發生的一些積極和消極的事情。但毫無疑問，全年成長率有所放緩。我特別評論了入住率低於預期。我認為，當我們進入第三季和第四季時，情況肯定是這樣。

Going into 2024, and I'm not going to speak to specifics, but one of the things that we spent a good bit of time on earlier in the year talking about this year was that comps eased in the second half because the environment started to change last year. And I would suggest that, that's not just a second half of 2023 thing, it's also into 2024 as we work through a demand environment that softened through 2023 as well as move-in rents that declined through 2023. And so for the same reasons that we discussed moderation and deceleration are easy comps in the second half of 2023. Maybe we haven't seen that as much as we initially envisioned, but we've also seen the levels of performance of the existing tenants make up some of that rental rate comp dynamic.

進入 2024 年，我不會談論具體細節，但我們在今年早些時候花了很多時間談論今年的一件事是，下半年的競爭有所緩解，因為環境開始惡化去年改變。我建議，這不僅僅是 2023 年下半年的事情，也是到 2024 年的事情，因為我們正在經歷 2023 年之前疲軟的需求環境以及 2023 年之前入住租金下降的情況。出於同樣的原因，我們討論了2023 年下半年的適度和減速是很容易實現的。也許我們沒有看到我們最初設想的那麼多，但我們也看到現有租戶的表現水平構成了租金率的一部分比較動態。

But we're still, to your point, looking at negative same-store revenue growth at the midpoint in the fourth quarter, to your point, we were highlighting that in February. Our outlook for the fourth quarter has gotten better as we move through the year. I think the midpoint now is down 50 basis points in same-store revenue. So almost there at flat, which is frankly an improvement from where we were sitting starting the year. And to your point on 2024, I think I probably said as much as I should. And we'll be providing a good bit more detail in February on the assumptions and fresh guidance for the year.

但就你的觀點而言，我們仍然在第四季度中點考慮同店收入的負增長，就你的觀點而言，我們在 2 月份就強調了這一點。隨著時間的推移，我們對第四季的前景變得更好。我認為現在同店收入的中點下降了 50 個基點。所以幾乎持平，坦白說，這比我們年初的情況有所改善。至於你關於 2024 年的觀點，我想我已經說了該說的話了。我們將在二月份提供有關今年的假設和新指導的更多詳細資訊。

Great. And then my second question was just going back to the supply question, but instead of just like the macro forecast, do you guys have a sense of how much of the portfolio is actually competing directly with new supply high level? Is it a quarter? Is it half? Just trying to get a sense of the range of the actual assets that are competing with new supply.

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題只是回到供應問題，但與宏觀預測不同的是，你們是否知道有多少投資組合實際上與新的供應高水準直接競爭？是四分之一嗎？是一半嗎？只是想了解與新供應競爭的實際資產的範圍。

Yes, that's going to vary on market to market. There's a whole spectrum. As I mentioned, our largest market, being here in Southern California, almost no new supply to speak to other parts of the country that are well known to be the tougher markets to develop into have same and similar dynamics. .

是的，這會因市場而異。有一個完整的範圍。正如我所提到的，我們最大的市場位於南加州，幾乎沒有新的供應與該國其他地區相比，眾所周知，這些地區是更難發展的市場，具有相同和相似的動態。 。

I mentioned on the other end of the spectrum, we're keeping a close eye on the amount of deliveries that are playing through in Phoenix and Las Vegas. But frankly, it goes right down to a very submarket impact. And I would say it's less than and continuing to shrink below the lower number you pointed to, i.e., whether it's 20% or lower, it's definitely a factor below that, and I think we'll continue to shrink, which, as I mentioned earlier, is a very good thing for the industry as a whole.

我提到，另一方面，我們正在密切關注鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯的交付量。但坦白說，這對子市場產生了非常大的影響。我想說，它小於並繼續收縮到你指出的較低數字以下，即，無論是20% 還是更低，這絕對是低於這個數字的一個因素，而且我認為我們將繼續收縮，正如我所提到的早一點，對於整個行業來說是一件非常好的事情。

Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱特琳·伯羅斯。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups. I think. I was wondering, I know the Simply Storage deal is still pretty fresh. But wondering if you could go through whether you've started to realize any synergies and/or just go through the near-term strategies you're implementing?

只需幾個快速跟進。我認為。我想知道，我知道 Simply Storage 交易仍然很新鮮。但想知道您是否可以了解一下您是否已經開始實現任何協同效應和/或只是了解您正在實施的近期策略？

Yes, Caitlin. I mentioned in my opening comments that our goal with that portfolio, which is to date, our largest private transaction with 127 assets coming to us. The benefit that we saw in that portfolio is -- it crosses 18 different states. It didn't put any undue burden on our ops team, market to market. And frankly, over the last 3 or 4 years, we've become very good at integration on a whole level of different scale market to market, where we've seen certain portfolios with dozens of assets, whether it was easy storage in the Washington, D.C. market or the portfolio that we bought in Dallas-Fort Worth that again, was -- again, very efficiently brought into the portfolio on a much more concentrated basis. But this portfolio from an advantage and integration standpoint was different.

是的，凱特琳。我在開場白中提到，我們對該投資組合的目標是迄今為止我們最大的私人交易，涉及 127 項資產。我們在該投資組合中看到的好處是——它跨越了 18 個不同的州。它沒有給我們的營運團隊帶來任何不適當的負擔，從市場到市場。坦白說，在過去的三、四年裡，我們已經非常擅長在不同規模的市場到市場的整體層面上進行整合，我們已經看到某些投資組合擁有數十種資產，無論是在華盛頓很容易存儲，華盛頓市場或我們在達拉斯沃斯堡購買的投資組合，再次非常有效地以更集中的方式納入投資組合。但從優勢和整合的角度來看，這個產品組合是不同的。

It was definitely sizable, and we were able to deploy many of the techniques that we've used over the last few years to integrate those assets. Now from a data integration standpoint, again, our toolkit has become incredibly strong relative to the efficiency. As I mentioned, we pulled 90,000 customers on to our portfolio overnight. That synergy continues to play quite well now that we're in the seventh week or so of owning those assets. We were able to integrate and train 250-plus new employees that came to us from that portfolio, great additions to the platform as well. So that opportunity from a training synergy and adaptability standpoint has gone very effectively. And we're also leveraging many of the things we do day in and day out to drive margins.

它絕對是相當大的，我們能夠部署過去幾年中使用的許多技術來整合這些資產。現在，從資料整合的角度來看，我們的工具包相對於效率而言已經變得異常強大。正如我所提到的，我們一夜之間吸引了 90,000 名客戶加入我們的投資組合。現在我們擁有這些資產已進入第七週左右，這種協同效應繼續發揮著良好的作用。我們能夠整合並培訓 250 多名來自該投資組合的新員工，這也是對平台的重要補充。因此，從訓練協同和適應性的角度來看，這個機會非常有效。我們也利用我們日復一日所做的許多事情來提高利潤。

Again, with the scale that we've got market to market, the ability for us to see optimization, so we really haven't seen any shortfalls at all. And if anything, we've been pleasantly surprised with the continued strength of that portfolio, occupancy is holding quite well. The transition from both customers to our platform, the transition from the branding is going very effectively. We'll have that finished no later at the end of the year. We see definite inherent value to transitioning what were once blue properties to orange properties. And we're very excited about what we've got ahead of us because we think that, that portfolio as a whole is very additive to the scale that we've got across the 18 states that I spoke to.

再說一遍，憑藉我們市場對市場的規模，我們有能力看到優化，所以我們真的沒有看到任何不足。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們對該投資組合的持續強勁感到驚喜，入住率保持得很好。從客戶到我們平台的轉變，從品牌的轉變都進展得非常有效。我們將在年底前完成這項工作。我們看到了將曾經的藍色屬性轉變為橙色屬性的明確的內在價值。我們對即將取得的成果感到非常興奮，因為我們認為，整個投資組合對於我所採訪的 18 個州的規模來說是非常重要的。

So very pleased by, again, the tools that we've got and the ability to exercise the synergies. Tom spoke to some length this morning about many of the tools we're using right now from a revenue management standpoint, whether it's tied to new customer, top of funnel demand and/or existing customer opportunities. So those 2 are different toggles that were deploying into that portfolio as we speak and not seeing anything that's going sideways. In fact, more encouraged that things are actually even better than what we predicted when we underwrote the portfolio.

我們再次對我們擁有的工具和發揮協同作用的能力感到非常高興。今天早上，湯姆從收入管理的角度詳細介紹了我們現在使用的許多工具，無論是與新客戶、漏斗頂部需求和/或現有客戶機會相關的工具。因此，這兩個是不同的切換，在我們發言時部署到該投資組合中，但沒有看到任何橫向波動。事實上，更令人鼓舞的是，事情實際上比我們承保投資組合時的預測還要好。

Great. And then maybe another quick one. I know you've talked a number of different ways about the lower expected deliveries in '24 and '25, which is encouraging. So that would suggest that you started to see development start slow. I was just wondering if you could talk about the magnitude of that slowdown and/or when it started, like how new is that?

偉大的。然後也許還有另一個快速的。我知道您已經透過多種不同的方式談論了 24 年和 25 年較低的預期交付量，這令人鼓舞。所以這表明你開始看到開發開始緩慢。我只是想知道您是否可以談論這種放緩的嚴重程度和/或它何時開始，例如這有多新？

Well, it's been year-by-year transitionary. We hit a peak of deliveries back in the 2019 or so time frame with plus or minus, say, $5 billion of assets that were again, added the market, which actually equates to about 5% of additional inventory. As I mentioned, this year, it's down to about $3 billion or about 3%. We think that, that's going to notch down by at least another 10% factor each successive year between 2024 and 2025.

嗯，這是逐年過渡的。市場補充道，我們在 2019 年左右的時間範圍內達到了交付高峰，資產的增減額達到了 50 億美元，這實際上相當於額外庫存的 5% 左右。正如我所提到的，今年這一數字下降至 30 億美元左右，即 3% 左右。我們認為，2024 年至 2025 年間，這一數字將每年至少再下降 10%。

By the time we get to 2025, we may be in the low 2% range of deliveries from an inventory standpoint. And to your point, it's -- that's a good thing and gives us a very different opportunity to leverage our opportunity as not only the largest developer in the sector, but the only public developer of assets. And we're able to do many things even more efficiently because of the scale we've got with our own development team and the amount of capital that we can sensibly deploy into development and redevelopment opportunities.

到 2025 年，從庫存角度來看，我們的交付量可能會處於 2% 的低水準範圍內。就您的觀點而言，這是一件好事，給我們提供了一個非常不同的機會來利用我們的機會，我們不僅是該行業最大的開發商，而且是唯一的資產公共開發商。由於我們擁有自己的開發團隊的規模以及我們可以明智地部署到開發和再開發機會中的資本量，我們能夠更有效地完成許多事情。

Our next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Ki Bin Kim。

So you guys mentioned that you were testing out some additional promotion activity in October, call it, a fall or Halloween special. I was just curious, do you plan on keeping that type of promotional activity past October into November? Or would those come off?

你們提到你們正在十月測試一些額外的促銷活動，稱之為秋季或萬聖節特別活動。我只是好奇，你們打算在 10 月到 11 月期間繼續進行這類促銷活動嗎？或是那些會脫落嗎？

Yes, Ki Bin, sales are something that the company has been doing for years and years. You can go back and look at pre-pandemic activities, the company started doing Memorial Day sales going back probably more than a decade ago and I see good traction from that. And so around holidays, we oftentimes will run sales and get some traction and we offer discounts on select units in our markets that we operate in. And we've seen good traction on that this year. We did a Memorial Day sale. We did a Labor Day sale. And this one, I don't know if you want to call it a Halloween sale or I think we call it a fall sale on the website, but it will wrap up today. .

是的，Ki Bin，銷售是公司多年來一直在做的事情。你可以回顧一下大流行前的活動，該公司可能在十多年前就開始進行陣亡將士紀念日銷售，我從中看到了良好的吸引力。因此，在假期期間，我們經常會進行銷售並獲得一些吸引力，並且我們會對我們經營的市場中的精選單位提供折扣。今年我們已經看到了良好的吸引力。我們舉辦了陣亡將士紀念日促銷活動。我們進行了勞動節促銷。而這一次，我不知道你是否想將其稱為萬聖節促銷，或者我認為我們在網站上稱之為秋季促銷，但今天就會結束。 。

And we see good customer demand traffic. And others in the industry do, too, the big public REITs generally run these types of sales as well. And so they're good traffic drivers, and they get the team in the field excited as well, and we see good conversion there. So it's a part of the business that's been around for some time, and we'll continue to use it as we have in the past.

我們看到良好的客戶需求流量。業內其他人也這樣做，大型公共房地產投資信託基金通常也進行此類銷售。因此，他們是優秀的流量驅動者，他們也讓現場團隊感到興奮，我們在那裡看到了良好的轉換。因此，它是業務的一部分，已經存在了一段時間，我們將像過去一樣繼續使用它。

We didn't use them in '21, '22 because we, frankly, were too full for it to make a lot of sense, but we're back to an occupancy environment where it makes good sense, and so we're utilizing it again.

我們沒有在 21、22 年使用它們，因為坦白說，我們太滿了，沒有多大意義，但我們回到了一個很有意義的佔用環境，所以我們正在利用再來一次。

Okay. And on the debt maturities, you have a U.S. note and a euro note coming due next year. Just any high-level thoughts you can share on refinancing plans.

好的。就債務到期日而言，明年將有一張美國票據和一張歐元票據到期。您可以分享有關再融資計劃的任何高層想法。

Yes. We'll plan to refinance those as we get into 2024. The $700 million U.S. note is a floating rate note and we'll plan to refinance that as we get into the first part of the year.

是的。我們將計劃在進入 2024 年時對其進行再融資。7 億美元的美國票據是浮動利率票據，我們將計劃在進入今年上半年時對其進行再融資。

And I'm assuming the spreads will be pretty similar? Or should I expect that to change?

我假設價差會非常類似？或者我應該期待這種情況會改變嗎？

It depends on ultimately what tenor we issue and the nature of the interest rates at the time. But it's our floating rate note, as I said. So it's at market from a benchmark rate standpoint. So there won't be a significant headwind associated with refinancing that particular note.

這最終取決於我們發行的期限以及當時利率的性質。但正如我所說，這是我們的浮動利率票據。因此，從基準利率的角度來看，它是在市場上的。因此，對該特定票據進行再融資不會產生重大阻力。

It will be more around spreads. And we'll update you on financing costs as we get into the first quarter. And frankly, that's it. I mean if you look at our balance sheet overall, we obviously have a very long-dated set of financing tools, most notably the over $4 billion of preferred stock that we don't need to refinance ever, but we can refinance at our election to the extent interest rates change. And we have a very well laddered maturity profile. So you're highlighting some refinancing we have in '24, we have modest in '25, a little bit more in '26. But overall, a very small percentage of the capital structure is coming due in any given year.

它將更多地圍繞點差。當我們進入第一季時，我們將向您通報融資成本的最新情況。坦白說，就是這樣。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們的整體資產負債表，我們顯然擁有一套非常長期的融資工具，最引人注目的是超過40 億美元的優先股，我們永遠不需要再融資，但我們可以在選舉時再融資利率變動的程度。我們有一個非常完善的階梯式成熟度概況。所以你強調了我們在 24 年進行的一些再融資，我們在 25 年進行了適度的再融資，在 26 年進行了更多的再融資。但整體而言，任何一年，資本結構中只有很小一部分到期。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克·穆勒（Mike Mueller）。

Just a real quick one here. Joe, when you're talking about cap rates trending 6% to 7%, is that -- was that meant to be a day 1 cap rate if you're buying a stabilized asset? Or is that more the yield that you're looking at if you're buying vacancy and assuming the lease-up risk?

這裡只是一個真正的快速。喬，當您談論資本化率趨勢為 6% 至 7% 時，如果您購買穩定資產，這是否意味著第一天的資本化率？或者，如果您購買空置並承擔租賃風險，那麼您所關注的收益率是否更高？

Yes. I mean, again, that would be, in our view, a stabilized expectation would be. If you're dealing with a highly stabilized existing asset, that too, I think, would be in that similar zone. There's always going to be a gap or some kind of a risk that you're going to inherit, time and again, we've been more comfortable doing that, knowing if we can buy an underperforming asset at a going in lower yield, we'll be able to extract the kind of ultimate value and yield hurdle that we're speaking to. So those are the stabilized yields that we're aiming at, Mike, as we're looking at investments in this arena right now.

是的。我的意思是，在我們看來，這將是一個穩定的預期。如果你正在處理高度穩定的現有資產，我認為它也會處於類似的區域。總是會存在差距或某種風險，你會一次又一次地繼承，我們更願意這樣做，知道我們是否可以以較低的收益率購買表現不佳的資產，我們將能夠提取我們正在談論的那種最終價值和效益障礙。麥克，這些就是我們的目標是穩定的收益率，因為我們現在正在考慮這個領域的投資。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Ryan Burke for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想請瑞安伯克 (Ryan Burke) 發表結束評論。

Thanks, Rob, and thanks to all of you out there for joining us today. Have a great Halloween, and we'll talk to you soon.

謝謝羅布，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。祝萬聖節愉快，我們很快就會與您交談。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。