Public Storage (PSA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Public Storage fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Public Storage 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Ryan Burke.

現在我想將會議交給主持人瑞安·伯克先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob.

謝謝你，羅布。

Hello everyone.

大家好。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

I'm here with Joe Russell and Tom Boyle.

我和喬·拉塞爾、湯姆·博伊爾一起來到這裡。

Before we begin, we want to remind you that certain matters discussed during this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties.

這些前瞻性陳述受一定的經濟風險和不確定性的影響。

All forward-looking statements speak only as of today, February 25, 2025, and we assume no obligation to update, revise, or supplement statements to become untrue because of subsequent events.

所有前瞻性陳述僅截至今天（2025 年 2 月 25 日）有效，我們不承擔因後續事件而更新、修改或補充不真實的陳述的義務。

A reconciliation to GAAP of the non-GAAP financial measures we provide in this call is included in our earnings release.

我們在本次電話會議中提供的非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 的對帳包含在我們的收益報告中。

You can find our press release, supplement report, SEC reports, and an audio replay of this conference call on our website, publicstorage.com. We do ask that you initially limit yourselves to two questions.

您可以在我們的網站 publicstorage.com 上找到我們的新聞稿、補充報告、SEC 報告以及本次電話會議的音訊回放。我們確實要求您最初將問題限制在兩個範圍內。

After that, if you have more, of course, please jump back in the queue.

之後，如果您還有更多問題，當然，請重新回到隊列中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Ryan, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝你，瑞安，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Tom and I will walk you through our performance, industry views, and outlook, then we'll open it up for Q&A.

湯姆和我將向您介紹我們的表現、行業觀點和展望，然後我們將進行問答。

I will focus on three key things.

我將重點討論三件關鍵的事情。

First, we ended 2024 on a positive note with results that reflected the stabilization we are driving across our business.

首先，我們以積極的態度結束了 2024 年，業績反映了我們在整個業務中推動的穩定。

We began 2024 by pointing out that a handful of markets were improving sequentially and that we expected more would follow suit.

我們在 2024 年初指出，少數市場正在連續改善，我們預計會有更多市場跟進。

They did, and we ended the year with nearly all markets having inflected, and we are seeing broad operational stabilization.

他們確實做到了，我們在年底時幾乎所有市場都發生了變化，我們看到了廣泛的營運穩定。

As a result, our quarterly same store revenue growth improved sequentially for the first time in more than two years.

因此，我們的季度同店營收成長兩年多來首次實現連續成長。

This coupled with strong performance and our sizable non-same store pool and ancillary businesses helped drive core FO per share growth positive.

再加上強勁的業績以及我們龐大的非同店業務和輔助業務，幫助推動每股核心 FO 成長。

Similar to same store revenues, this is the first sequential improvement in more than two years.

與同店收入類似，這是兩年多來首次連續的成長。

Simply put, industry and portfolio fundamentals are steadily heading in the right direction.

簡而言之，產業和投資組合基本面正在穩步朝著正確的方向發展。

Second, we are inspired by the strength and perseverance of the Los Angeles community following the tragic fires nearly two months ago.

第二，近兩個月前的悲劇性火災發生後，洛杉磯社區所展現的力量和毅力令我們深受鼓舞。

We have a long standing and deep connection here, and we empathize with those that have been affected.

我們在這裡有著長期而深厚的聯繫，我們同情那些受到影響的人。

I am very proud of the team for keeping our property secure and open to serve our customers.

我為團隊保持我們的財產安全並開放為客戶服務感到非常自豪。

We welcome our new customers and thank them for choosing us in their time of need.

我們歡迎新客戶並感謝他們在需要的時候選擇我們。

We are deeply experienced in navigating states of emergency and look forward to Los Angeles re-emerging as a long-term outperformer among cell storage markets.

我們在應對緊急狀態方面擁有豐富的經驗，並期待洛杉磯重新成為電池儲存市場的長期領導者。

In the meantime, we are driving operational stabilization across the rest of our portfolio, and we expect sequential improvement to continue outside of Los Angeles in 2025.

同時，我們正在推動其餘投資組合的營運穩定，並預計 2025 年洛杉磯以外的地區將繼續實現連續改善。

Third, through portfolio enhancement, industry leading innovation, and company-wide competitive advantages, we have positioned ourselves for opportunity as the industry environment improves.

第三，透過增強產品組合、引領產業創新和全公司的競爭優勢，我們為產業環境的改善做好了準備。

We recently completed the Property of Tomorrow program, a multi-year and more than $600 million investment into holistically rebranding our entire portfolio nationwide.

我們最近完成了「明日地產」計劃，這是一項多年期、超過 6 億美元的投資，用於在全國範圍內全面重塑我們的整個房地產投資組合。

This has further enhanced our brand positioning within local markets.

這進一步增強了我們在當地市場的品牌定位。

As a result of completing the program, we expect our annual retained cash flow to increase from $400 million in 2024 to approximately $600 million in 2025 providing additional liquidity to grow our portfolio.

完成該計劃後，我們預計年度保留現金流量將從 2024 年的 4 億美元增加到 2025 年的約 6 億美元，從而為擴大我們的投資組合提供額外的流動性。

Our digital transformation is advancing and further connecting all aspects of our business.

我們的數位轉型正在推進，並進一步連接我們業務的各個方面。

Adoption by customers has been particularly swift with self-selected digital options now comprising 85% of our customer interactions and transactions, a significant increase from around 30% in 2019.

客戶的接受速度特別快，自主選擇的數位選項現在占我們客戶互動和交易的 85%，比 2019 年的 30% 左右有顯著增長。

The platform digitalization has helped drive our implementation of a new and more efficient operating model.

平台數位化推動我們實施新的、更有效率的營運模式。

One of the many ways we are flexing the platform and using AI is to staff properties more appropriately.

我們靈活運用平台和人工智慧的眾多方式之一就是為飯店配備更合適的人員。

We are now meeting customers when and where they need us instead of always having someone on site for nine hours every day.

現在，我們可以隨時隨地與客戶會面，而不必每天派人待在現場九個小時。

As a result, we've reduced on property labor hours by nearly 30%, and there's more to go.

結果，我們已將物業勞動時間減少了近 30％，並且還有很大的進步空間。

Importantly, we are doing so while also driving satisfaction higher among our customers and the 6,000 member property operations team.

重要的是，我們這樣做的同時也提高了客戶和 6,000 名物業營運團隊的滿意度。

We are also actively rolling out our solar program, reaching nearly 900 properties, and with more growth ahead.

我們也積極推行太陽能計劃，目前已覆蓋近 900 處房產，未來還將進一步發展。

Our strong progress so far has resulted in a 30% reduction in utility use which benefits our financial profile and the environment.

我們迄今的巨大進步已使公用事業使用量減少了 30%，這有利於我們的財務狀況和環境。

These are just a few of our many active initiatives, and we are excited about further operational enhancement to come this year and beyond.

這些只是我們眾多積極舉措中的一小部分，我們對今年及以後的進一步營運改善感到興奮不已。

With that said, we are mindful of the challenges that the industry still faces, including competitive customer move-in dynamics.

話雖如此，我們也意識到該行業仍面臨的挑戰，包括競爭激烈的客戶進駐動態。

Our team and strategies are calibrated appropriately as we are driving improvement across our portfolio.

隨著我們推動整個投資組合的改進，我們的團隊和策略也得到了適當的調整。

Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

現在我將電話轉給湯姆。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

On the capital allocation front, we have a $740 million development pipeline to be delivered over the next two years through our in-house team as we continue to invest while industry volume decline.

在資本配置方面，我們將在未來兩年內透過內部團隊交付價值 7.4 億美元的開發管道，因為我們在產業規模下降的同時仍會繼續投資。

Acquisition activity has picked up with 26 properties acquired or under contract for $361 million in the fourth quarter through to today.

收購活動有所回升，第四季截至目前共收購或簽訂了 26 處房產合同，總價值為 3.61 億美元。

We expect greater acquisition activity in 2025 than we had in 2024.

我們預計 2025 年的收購活動將比 2024 年更活躍。

With fundamentals improving in a multi-year period of declining competitive new supply, we are poised to increase activity.

在連續多年新供應競爭力下降的背景下，隨著基本面的改善，我們準備增加活動。

As always, our capital and liquidity positions are strong.

像往常一樣，我們的資本和流動性狀況強勁。

Industry-leading leverage, balance sheet capacity, and cost of capital have us positioned to execute across our growth channels.

業界領先的槓桿率、資產負債表容量和資本成本使我們能夠在各個成長管道中發揮作用。

Now shifting to our financial performance.

現在轉向我們的財務表現。

We achieved core FFO of $4.21 per share in the fourth quarter, a 20-basis-point increase year over year.

我們第四季的核心 FFO 達到每股 4.21 美元，年增 20 個基點。

This was strong sequential improvement from the 300-basis-point decline experienced during the third quarter.

與第三季經歷的 300 個基點的下降相比，這是連續強勁改善。

Same store revenues declined 60 basis points year over year in the fourth quarter, also improving sequentially from the 130-basis-point decline experienced in the prior quarter.

同店營收年減 60 個基點，較上一季 130 個基點的降幅也有所改善。

Move in trends are improving.

入住趨勢正在改善。

Existing customers are behaving well, and occupancy is at a level that puts us in a good position as fundamentals inflect.

現有客戶表現良好，入住率處於一定水平，使我們在基本面發生變化時處於有利地位。

As Joe mentioned, we expect the sequential improvement to continue across the portfolio outside of Los Angeles.

正如喬所提到的，我們預計洛杉磯以外的投資組合將繼續持續改善。

Same store expenses increased 90 basis points year over year.

同店支出較去年同期成長90個基點。

With growth in property taxes offset by staffing optimization and additional expense controls.

透過人員優化和額外的費用控制來抵消財產稅的成長。

Now turning to the outlook for 2025.

現在來展望2025年。

We introduced core FFO per share guidance of $16.35 to $17 with a midpoint that is consistent with 2024.

我們推出了每股核心 FFO 指引，為 16.35 美元至 17 美元，中間值與 2024 年一致。

This includes an estimated $0.23 per share impact from pricing restrictions resulting from a state of emergency declared by the governor of California in response to the fires.

其中包括加州州長為應對火災宣布進入緊急狀態而導致的定價限制，估計每股影響為 0.23 美元。

Excluding the impact, the midpoint would have called for a 140-basis-point increase in core FFO per share year over year.

除去此影響，中點數字將要求每股核心 FFO 較上年同期增加 140 個基點。

Looking at the same store, the midpoint calls for revenues to be down slightly year over year.

從同一家商店來看，中間點顯示收入比去年同期略有下降。

This includes an estimated 100-basis-point impact from the restrictions in Los Angeles.

其中包括洛杉磯限制措施造成的約 100 個基點的影響。

At the midpoint, we are assuming that move-in rents are down 5% year over year on average.

中間值是，我們假設入住租金平均年減 5%。

We are also assuming that occupancy is down 10 basis points on average in improvement from where we finished 2024.

我們也假設入住率將比 2024 年結束時平均下降 10 個基點。

And as we've consistently seen, we believe existing customer behavior will remain steady.

正如我們一貫看到的，我們相信現有的客戶行為將保持穩定。

We expect 3.25% seems to expense growth at the midpoint, primarily driven by property taxes and offset by the initiatives that Joe spoke to.

我們預計 3.25% 似乎是中間值費用成長，主要受財產稅推動，並被喬談到的舉措所抵銷。

This leads us to same store NOI declining 1.4% at the midpoint.

這導致同店淨營業利潤中位數下降了 1.4%。

As I noted earlier, we anticipate higher acquisition volumes in 2025.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計 2025 年的收購量會更高。

We've included the identified $140 million of closed and under contract volume.

我們已將已確定的 1.4 億美元已完成和正在簽訂合約的交易量計入。

But we did not include any unidentified acquisition volumes in the range.

但我們沒有將任何未確定的收購量納入範圍。

Our outsized non-see store portfolio of over 500 properties is poised to be a strong contributor again in 2025, with $454 million of NOI assumed at the midpoint.

我們龐大的非實體店組合由超過 500 家物業組成，預計將在 2025 年再次成為強勁貢獻者，中間值假設為 4.54 億美元的淨營運利潤。

They will continue to be an engine of growth with additional NOI outside of $80 million beyond 2025 through stabilization.

透過穩定，它們將繼續成為成長引擎，2025 年後將帶來 8,000 萬美元以外的額外淨營運收入。

As we enter 2025, Public Storage is on solid footing following two years of demand and growth normalization.

進入 2025 年，經過兩年的需求和成長正常化，公共儲存基礎穩固。

Our completed Property of Tomorrow enhancement program, industry leading transformation initiatives, sizable and high growth non-same store pool properties.

我們已完成「明日地產」增強計畫、業界領先的轉型舉措以及規模可觀且高成長的非同店池地產。

And growth-oriented balance sheet will have us positioned for improving fundamentals and increased transaction market activity moving forward.

以成長為導向的資產負債表將幫助我們改善基本面並增加交易市場活動。

Rob, let's open it up for Q&A.

羅布，讓我們開始問答環節。

Rob, this is Ryan.

羅布，這是瑞安。

Are you there with us?

你和我們在一起嗎？

Yes, I'm here.

是的，我在這裡。

Let's go ahead and open it up for Q&A.

讓我們繼續進行問答。

At this time we'll be conducting a question and answer session.

現在我們將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thanks for the additional information in your opening remarks.

感謝您在開場白中提供的補充資訊。

Tom, can you talk a little bit more about the assumptions on street rate?

湯姆，你能否再詳細談談關於街道費率的假設？

I think you said you're assuming on average during '25 down 5% and occupancy down on average slightly I think you said 10 bits, so most, specifically the street rate assumption.

我認為您說過，您假設 25 年期間平均下降 5%，入住率平均略有下降，我認為您說過 10 位，所以大多數，特別是街道率假設。

How do you derive that?

你是如何得出這個結論的？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure, thanks, Jeff.

是的，當然，謝謝，傑夫。

So why don't I start with an update on year-to-date performance and speak to what we've seen to start the year.

那麼，我何不先更新今年迄今的表現，並談談我們在年初看到的情況。

And we've seen continued levels of activity demand stabilization that we talked through 2024 play out at the start of 2025 as well.

我們看到，我們在 2024 年談到的活動需求穩定水準將在 2025 年初持續顯現。

Giving some snapshot stats, the move-in volumes are up a strong 5% to start the year.

從一些快照統計數據來看，今年年初的入住量成長了 5%。

Move-in rates down about 8%.

入住率下降約8%。

So on a net basis, continued improvement through moving in activity.

因此，從淨基礎來看，透過開展活動可以持續改善。

Move outs are flat, leading occupancy to be down about 40 basis points year over year.

退房率持平，導致入住率年減約 40 個基點。

As we sit here today, comparing to where we finished the year down 80 basis points, but we did start the year with moving rents down 8% or so.

今天，與今年年底相比，我們的租金下降了 80 個基點，但今年年初我們的租金確實下降了 8% 左右。

As we think about the full year, I highlighted a couple of the operational metrics to note.

當我們思考全年時，我強調了幾個需要注意的營運指標。

You've seized on one of them, moving rents down 5%.

您抓住了其中的一個機會，將租金降低了 5%。

So that's obviously an improvement from where we're starting the year today, and we expect a continued competitive dynamics for new customer move in rents through the year at the midpoint.

因此，這顯然比我們今天年初的情況有所改善，我們預計，在年中，新客戶入住租金的競爭狀況將繼續保持。

We are anticipating that with demand stabilizing that we do see occupancy at a down 10 basis points level on average, so improvement in occupancy through the year.

我們預計，隨著需求穩定，入住率平均將下降 10 個基點，因此全年入住率將會提高。

We're already seeing some of that year-to-date.

今年迄今我們已經看到了一些這樣的情況。

Obviously the high and low end of the range capture better or worse trends on those metrics as well.

顯然，範圍的高端和低端也反映了這些指標的更好或更差的趨勢。

But we thought that was an appropriate midpoint for our outlook for the year.

但我們認為這是我們今年展望的合適中點。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

And then my second question is on your comments around stabilization.

我的第二個問題是關於穩定性的評論。

Joe, you started saying that the, almost all markets inflected broader stabilization.

喬，你開始說，幾乎所有市場都受到了更廣泛的穩定的影響。

What's driving that?

是什麼原因導致的呢？

Is it simply less supply?

僅僅是供應量減少嗎？

I mean, are you actually starting to see an improvement in demand top of the (technical difficulty) about that more.

我的意思是，您是否實際上開始看到對（技術難度）的需求有所改善？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure, yeah, the moderate but improving market to market demand factor is a positive trend.

當然，是的，適度但不斷改善的市場需求因素是一個積極的趨勢。

We spoke to that quarter by quarter through 2024.

我們會逐季討論這個問題，直至 2024 年。

And as Tom noted, that's carrying us into 2025 as we start.

正如湯姆所說，這將帶領我們進入 2025 年。

So we have seen as I noted in my opening comments, a number of markets that continue to infect positive.

正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們看到許多市場繼續呈現正面趨勢。

That's a good trend.

這是一個好的趨勢。

It's not a jump dramatically forward.

這並不是一次巨大的飛躍。

But it's clearly not reversing.

但顯然，情況並未逆轉。

And we're seeing top of funnel demand by more Google search, for instance, industry wide.

例如，我們看到整個行業對谷歌搜尋的需求不斷增加。

We're seeing again moderate levels of improved activity again top of funnel.

我們再次看到漏斗頂部活動量有所改善。

And then the thing that we continue to be very encouraged by are all the things we're doing from a conversion standpoint where customers are coming to us with a degree of higher interest in retaining or attaining self storage space.

然後，讓我們繼續感到非常鼓舞的是，我們所做的所有事情都是從轉換的角度出發的，客戶對我們保留或獲得自助儲存空間的興趣越來越大。

But our conversion techniques are continuing to be highly optimized and very competitive.

但我們的轉換技術持續高度優化且極具競爭力。

So with all those factors, Jeff, we're encouraged by this moderate but improving market-by-market growth.

因此，傑夫，考慮到所有這些因素，我們對這種溫和但不斷改善的市場成長感到鼓舞。

We're obviously pointing out some of the challenges, as I noted here in Los Angeles.

正如我在洛杉磯指出的那樣，我們顯然指出了一些挑戰。

But holistically the portfolio at large, we're still seeing the level of improvement I spoke to and we're going to continue to diligently capture as much as our fair share of market activities we can.

但從整體投資組合來看，我們仍然看到我所說的改善水平，我們將繼續努力，盡可能多地獲取我們在市場活動中的公平份額。

Todd Thomas, Key Bank Capital Markets.

托德·托馬斯 (Todd Thomas)，Key Bank Capital Markets。

Yeah, hi, thanks.

是的，嗨，謝謝。

I wanted to ask about Los Angeles specifically the impact that you're estimating there amounts to the 100 basis point negative impact on the same store revenue. Can you just discuss the underlying assumptions there around occupancy and rate growth. And are you assuming that impact is is fairly consistent throughout the year or is the impact, expected to be, maybe a little bit greater earlier in the year than you would expect it to be as the year progresses?

我想具體問一下洛杉磯的情況，您估計那裡的影響對同店收入產生了 100 個基點的負面影響。您能否討論一下有關入住率和房價成長的基本假設？您是否認為這種影響在全年都相當一致，或者預計這種影響在年初可能會比您預期的全年影響要大一些？

Yeah, hi, thanks.

是的，嗨，謝謝。

I wanted to ask about Los Angeles specifically the impact that you're estimating there amounts to the 100 basis point negative impact on the same store revenue.

我想具體問一下洛杉磯的情況，您估計那裡的影響對同店收入產生了 100 個基點的負面影響。

Can you just discuss the underlying assumptions there around occupancy and rate growth.

您能否討論一下有關入住率和房價成長的基本假設？

And are you assuming that impact is is fairly consistent throughout the year or is the impact, expected to be, maybe a little bit greater earlier in the year than you would expect it to be as the year progresses?

您是否認為這種影響在全年都相當一致，或者預計這種影響在年初可能會比您預期的全年影響要大一些？

Yeah, Todd, that's a good question.

是的，托德，這是個好問題。

So we did provide an estimate for the impact the sea to revenue that clearly flows directly down to core FFO of 100 basis points.

因此，我們確實對海運費對收入的影響提供了一個估計，顯然直接影響到核心 FFO 的 100 個基點。

As we think about the impact there, the primary driver of the impact is going to be rate.

當我們思考其影響時，影響的主要驅動因素將是利率。

Occupancy remains healthy.

入住率依然良好。

Los Angeles continues to be a strong market for us really in and out of cycles given the demand and supply dynamics within Los Angeles.

考慮到洛杉磯內部的供需動態，無論週期如何，洛杉磯對我們來說仍然是一個強勁的市場。

And so the 100 basis points that we're speaking to is really a rent restriction and pricing restriction impact.

因此，我們所說的 100 個基點實際上是租金限制和價格限制的影響。

And that will have less of an impact in the first quarter obviously as we're starting here than it will as we move through the year.

顯然，由於我們才剛開始，因此這對第一季的影響會小於對全年的影響。

And so that that 100-basis-point impact will accumulate as we move through 2025, but you can think about that 100 basis points is the right guidepost for for modeling purpose

因此，100 個基點的影響將在 2025 年逐漸累積，但你可以認為 100 個基點是建模目的的正確指導方針

Okay.

好的。

And then just stepping back and thinking about the portfolio, more broadly, can you just discuss within the the context of your remarks around, continued stabilization and recovery and in terms of fundamentals.

然後退一步思考投資組合，從更廣泛的角度來看，您能否在您的評論背景下討論持續的穩定和復甦以及基本面方面的問題。

Can you discuss, trends across the Sun Belt.

您能討論一下陽光地帶的趨勢嗎？

And compare and contrast that to some of the coastal and more urban markets, clearly the Sun Belt normalized more or experienced a greater deceleration from a higher peak growth rate looked like some of those markets stabilized a bit more this quarter and led the way as you look at '25, does the Sun Belt recover more quickly, or do you see, some continued volatility there in the near term?

與一些沿海和城市市場相比，陽光地帶顯然更加正常化，或者從更高的峰值成長率經歷了更大的減速，看起來其中一些市場本季更加穩定，並處於領先地位。當你看'25時，陽光地帶是否恢復得更快，或者你是否看到短期內那裡會繼續波動？

Yeah, I can start Todd and then Tom can add additional commentary.

是的，我可以讓托德開始，然後湯姆可以添加額外的評論。

One of the things that you've pointed to is, yeah.

您所指出的其中一件事是，是的。

We still are dealing with some of the high flying markets, through the, extraordinary demand that we saw through the pandemic, et cetera.

我們仍在應對一些高速發展的市場，例如疫情期間出現的巨大需求等等。

We are encouraged by that continuing to progress in the right direction off of again those pretty dramatic events and the demand that we saw.

我們對這些頗具戲劇性的事件和我們所看到的需求繼續朝著正確的方向前進感到鼓舞。

The other factor is supply itself.

另一個因素是供應本身。

So in markets nationally we continue to see declines more often than not in supply and deliveries of new products.

因此，在全國市場上，我們持續看到新產品的供應和交付量頻繁下降。

There are still two or three markets we're keeping a particularly close eye on that would include Phoenix, Las Vegas, parts of Florida that we're, continuing to monitor.

我們仍在密切關注兩三個市場，包括鳳凰城、拉斯維加斯和佛羅裡達部分地區，我們將繼續對其進行監控。

Atlanta's another one.

亞特蘭大是另一個。

But those are the markets that still are not adjusting as effectively as the nationwide portfolio as a whole.

但這些市場的調整效果仍不如全國投資組合整體有效。

We've been talking about it now for the last couple of years,but.

過去幾年我們一直在談論這個問題，但是。

We continue to see the holistic benefit of fewer and fewer deliveries taking place.

我們持續看到越來越少的分娩次數所帶來的整體效益。

The development business continues to be very challenging from an entitlement, timing and cost standpoint, coupled with the fact that pro formas often are not matching investment hurdles by many market developers, so that too has been a positive trend that we continue to see that we're going to see through 2025 and frankly into 2026.

從權利、時間和成本的角度來看，開發業務仍然面臨著巨大的挑戰，再加上許多市場開發商的預測通常與投資障礙不匹配，因此這也是一個積極的趨勢，我們繼續看到我們將持續到 2025 年，坦白說，到 2026 年。

Tom, you can add any other.

湯姆，你可以添加任何其他內容。

The only thing I'd add is some specific market commentary in the last year at this time we were highlighting Seattle, San Francisco, and DC's markets that we're starting to see some improvement that played out through the fourth quarter.

我唯一想補充的是去年的一些具體的市場評論，當時我們專注於西雅圖、舊金山和華盛頓特區的市場，我們開始看到第四季度出現的一些改善。

Continue to see good trends there, but as you're highlighting and Joe just noted related to the Sun Belt, some encouraging trends in some of the Florida markets, for instance.

那裡繼續看到良好的趨勢，但正如你強調的以及喬剛才提到的有關陽光地帶的情況，例如在佛羅裡達的一些市場出現了一些令人鼓舞的趨勢。

Miami and Orlando, both inflecting into positive second derivative territory in the fourth quarter.

邁阿密和奧蘭多在第四節都進入了正二階導數區。

So we are starting to see some improvements further into the Sun Belt, which is encouraging.

因此，我們開始看到陽光地帶進一步改善，這是令人鼓舞的。

Alright thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks a lot for taking my questions.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

First, on the transaction market, sounds like you have greater visibility into more activity in 2025 than last year.

首先，在交易市場上，聽起來您對 2025 年的活動有比去年更大的了解。

So what, what's driving a more liquid market and where are acquisition cap rates, settling in right now?

那麼，是什麼推動了市場流動性的增強？目前的收購資本化率又處於什麼水準？

Yeah, Michael, a couple of things there.

是的，邁克爾，有幾件事。

So 2024 as a stage setter ended up being a multi-year low sector transaction year.

因此，2024 年作為一個開端，最終成為了多年來該行業交易量低迷的一年。

Very few large portfolios traded hands.

很少有大型投資組合易手。

And you know the bulk of the activity was one-off transactions, but all told there was plus or minus about $4 billion of transaction activity in the sector at large.

你知道，大部分活動都是一次性交易，但總的來說，整個產業的交易活動總額大約在 40 億美元左右。

Going into the fourth quarter of 2024, we did see a bit of an uptick on the latter half of that activity level, meaning the one-off smaller transactions.

進入 2024 年第四季度，我們確實看到後半段活動水準上升，這意味著一次性小額交易。

So we were able to capture a number of attractive opportunities in the fourth quarter that carried into so far the activity we've seen early into 2025.

因此，我們在第四季度抓住了許多有吸引力的機會，這些機會迄今為止一直延續到 2025 年初。

Tom mentioned we've either closed or have under contract approximately $140 million of activity again highly leaning toward these one-off transactions, no different than Q4.

湯姆提到，我們要么已經完成，要么已經簽訂了約 1.4 億美元的合同，這些交易再次高度傾向於這些一次性交易，與第四季度沒有什麼不同。

But between Q4 and Q1 now we've taken down about $400 million worth of acquisition activity.

但在第四季和第一季之間，我們已經完成了價值約 4 億美元的收購活動。

It's hard to tell if in 2025 we're going to see a different level of bigger portfolios coming to the market.

很難說 2025 年我們是否會看到不同規模的更大規模的投資組合進入市場。

Through last year we talked to from time to time some of the inbound activity we were getting on some of these larger portfolios.

去年，我們不時談論我們在一些較大的投資組合中開展的一些入站活動。

Frankly, almost none of them ended up trading hands.

坦白說，幾乎沒有任何一件商品最終被易手。

Very few of them did, in fact, and we'll see how different 2025 plays out.

事實上，很少有人這樣做，我們將拭​​目以待 2025 年會有怎樣的不同表現。

There's still a level of activity that could come through on these larger portfolios.

這些較大的投資組合仍有一定程度的活動可以實現。

But very hard to predict at this point.

但目前很難預測。

And just to clarify where it operates right now?

能否澄清一下它目前在哪裡運作？

Yeah, sure, on cap rates I'd point you to a similar zip code that we've been indicating really for the last year and a half or so.

是的，當然，關於資本化率，我會向您指出我們在過去一年半左右的時間裡一直在指示的類似郵遞區號。

And obviously cost of capital interest rates, they've moved around a little bit, through the year, but I'd still be pointing to kind of, 5s cap rates, getting into 6s as as the right guideposts for for cap rates and obviously lease up assets are going to be a little bit different than that.

顯然，資本成本利率在一年內有所變動，但我仍然會指出，5s 資本化率，進入 6s 作為資本化率的正確指導方針，顯然租賃資產將與此略有不同。

I'm speaking more to stabilize properties.

我講的更多是為了穩定財產。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

And and then as a as a follow up here.

然後在這裡進行後續跟進。

It sounds like demand is stabilizing, moving volumes are up slightly.

聽起來需求正在穩定，交易量略為上升。

But it's not necessarily translating to pricing power for new customers.

但這並不一定意味著新客戶的定價權。

So is the missing ingredient just for for demand to pick up for pricing power to return or or is there something else that that can help generate that the the move and rents to the move higher?

那麼，所缺少的因素是否只是讓需求回升，從而恢復定價權，或者還有其他因素可以幫助推動價格上漲和租金上漲？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, thanks, Michael.

當然，謝謝，邁克爾。

So I think stepping back, the level of demand that the industry is seeing has come off the highs of several years ago.

因此，我認為回顧一下，該行業目前的需求水準已經從幾年前的高點回落。

But last year we were specific in highlighting that we viewed it as the year of stabilization.

但去年我們特別強調，我們將其視為穩定之年。

And if you look at Google search activity for storage-related keywords or other metrics, we did experience that stabilization through last year and we're starting the year in a similar place.

如果你查看 Google 中與儲存相關的關鍵字或其他指標的搜尋活動，你會發現去年我們確實經歷了這種穩定，而今年我們也從類似的情況開始了新的一年。

To where we started last year, so that's encouraging the demand is not falling.

回到我們去年開始的地方，令人鼓舞的是需求並沒有下降。

So that's the first step in the ingredients that you're speaking to.

這就是您談到的成分的第一步。

In terms of the year this year, we are not anticipating that we see a significant uptick in demand through this year, so pretty similar trends as we think about our demand drivers in '25 compared to '24, so we're not expecting a big seasonal uptick, for instance, or a sharp return in housing transaction volumes.

就今年而言，我們預計今年的需求不會大幅上升，因此，當我們考慮2025年與2024年的需求驅動因素時，趨勢非常相似，因此，我們預計不會出現較大的季節性上漲，或者房屋交易量不會大幅回升。

It feels like '25 is going to feel pretty similar to '24 across many of those demand dynamics and and so we're not anticipating that that that there are big shifts there obviously to the extent that demand does pick up for any number of reasons which we can speak to that should lead to better pricing power across the industry.

感覺 2025 年在許多需求動態方面將與 2024 年非常相似，因此我們預計不會出現大的變化，顯然，由於多種原因，需求會回升，我們可以說這應該會導致整個行業更好的定價權。

And better financial performance that would flow through thereafter.

此後將會出現更好的財務業績。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Good luck in 2025.

祝 2025 年好運。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria，BMO資本市場。

Hi, good morning, thanks for the time just hoping you could talk a little bit about expenses and some of the assumptions behind some of the individual line items and as part of that, if you wouldn't mind talking about your views on any potential risks to changes in immigration policy impacting labor costs or less environmentally friendly administration maybe removing some of the benefits of solar initiatives you you put past or through?

嗨，早安，感謝您抽出時間，只是希望您能談談費用以及一些個別項目背後的假設，作為其中的一部分，如果您不介意談談您對移民政策變化對勞動力成本產生影響的任何潛在風險的看法，或者不太環保的管理可能會取消您過去或現在的太陽能計劃的一些好處？

All right, that's a lot, Juan, so take through those.

好吧，胡安，這些可真不少，所以請仔細閱讀。

So in terms of expenses for '25, ticking through some of them, the biggest driver of expenses will once again likely be property taxes.

因此，就 25 年的支出而言，仔細查看其中的一些支出，最大的支出驅動因素可能再次是財產稅。

Another increase is likely to be indirect cost of operations.

另一個增加的可能是間接營運成本。

Some of the investments we're making on the team there will lead to increases.

我們對那裡的團隊進行的一些投資將會帶來收入的成長。

Those will be offset by payroll efficiencies that Joe spoke to earlier.

這些將被喬之前談到的工資效率所抵消。

And continued improvements in our digital platform that will enable of that.

我們將繼續改進數位平台，以實現這一目標。

And so that will be a mittigant.

所以這將是一個緩解措施。

And then solar, the properties that we added in '24 will get full year benefit of those that reduce utility usage in '25, and then we're going to have another active year of additions this year in terms of policies towards solar and whatnot, we'll obviously navigate those as we as we go.

然後是太陽能，我們在'24 年增加的物業將獲得'25 年減少公用事業使用量的全年利益，然後今年我們將在太陽能政策等方面再進行一年積極的增加，我們顯然會在前進的過程中引導這些政策。

But the investments that we've made in solar to date have been very strong returns call it 10% to 15% unlevered IRRs on those investments.

但迄今為止，我們在太陽能領域的投資回報非常豐厚，這些投資的無槓桿內部報酬率達到 10% 至 15%。

So we view those as attractive investments, and we're seeing that utility savings as we sit here today and we think that that has a big opportunity for us over the longer term given the sizable nature of our roof presence across the country.

因此，我們認為這些是有吸引力的投資，而且我們今天在這裡看到了公用事業的節省，我們認為，鑑於我們在全國範圍內的屋頂業務規模龐大，這對我們長期來說是一個巨大的機會。

And the likelihood that utility rates continue to rise and solar panel prices come down.

公用事業費率可能會繼續上漲，而太陽能板價格可能會下降。

So more opportunity there kind of regardless of policies over the medium to longer term.

因此，無論中長期政策如何，那裡都存在更多機會。

Thanks Tom and then just hoping you could speak a little bit about the pricing dynamics for new customers and any sort of impacts from the comp period of last year with the achieved rates going up a bit to start the year I think you said fourth quarter was 5% and a year-to-date is down 8%.

謝謝湯姆，然後希望您能談談新客戶的價格動態，以及去年同期的任何影響，年初時實現的利率略有上升，我記得您說第四季度是 5%，而年初至今下降了 8%。

And then kind of weaving in what you're doing on the promotion side, which increased a bit in the fourth quarter and and just how we should think about the interplay there between promotions and achieved rates, et cetera.

然後將您在促銷方面所做的事情融入其中，促銷在第四季度有所增加，以及我們應該如何思考促銷和實現率之間的相互作用等等。

Yeah, sure, happy to go into some of those dynamics, I always like to highlight that we really have 3 tools that we're pulling at really at local level markets opportunities with both promotions, advertising, and move in rents.

是的，當然，很高興深入探討其中的一些動態，我總是想強調，我們確實有 3 種工具，我們可以透過促銷、廣告和入住租金來抓住真正屬於本地層面的市場機會。

They each drive different performance amongst customers.

它們各自在客戶中發揮不同的作用。

Some are helping top a funnel, some conversion, et cetera.

有些是在幫助完善漏斗，有些是在幫助轉化，等等。

And so you did see some variability year over year in some of those metrics, but I would point you to the fact that those are relatively modest changes over time.

因此，您確實會看到某些指標逐年存在一些變化，但我要指出的是，這些變化隨著時間的推移相對溫和。

If you look at our marketing spend as a percentage of revenue as a guidepost, for instance, 2.4% of revenue in the fourth quarter.

例如，如果你將我們的行銷支出佔收入的百分比作為一個指導方針，第四季度的行銷支出佔收入的 2.4%。

And roughly consistent with prior year, we continue to see very strong returns on our advertising spend given our strong brand presence and our digital platform investments that we've made over the last several years.

與去年大致相同，鑑於我們強大的品牌影響力和過去幾年在數位平台上的投資，我們的廣告支出繼續獲得非常強勁的回報。

On promotions, we utilize some of the more near term it first month promotions through the fourth quarter.

在促銷方面，我們利用一些近期的第一個月促銷活動貫穿第四季。

But again those promotions as a percentage of revenue at about 1.7% of revenue remain below historical averages and frankly is a tool that we'll consider using in 2025 as well.

但這些促銷佔收入的百分比約為 1.7%，仍低於歷史平均水平，坦白說，這也是我們在 2025 年會考慮使用的工具。

And then move in rates, as you highlight has been a notable area of competition amongst storage operators over the last several years.

然後是入住率，正如你所強調的，這是過去幾年儲存業者之間競爭的一個顯著領域。

It continues to be a very competitive moving in environment today and we'll use that lever also.

現今的市場環境仍然競爭非常激烈，我們也會利用這一優勢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Juan.

謝謝，胡安。

Nick Joseph Citi.

尼克·約瑟夫·西蒂。

Thanks, I was to go back to LA and just understand the moving parts.

謝謝，我要回到洛杉磯，了解那裡的狀況。

I think if I look here, rev off is about $36 right now.

我想如果我看這裡，目前的轉速約為 36 美元。

So where's market rent in LA for the purpose of the emergency restrictions and then how does that impact kind of new move in as well as ECRIs?

那麼，在緊急限制下，洛杉磯的市場租金如何？這對新入住以及 ECRI 有何影響？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So the the state of emergency triggers price restrictions within Los Angeles and Ventura Counties that results in a 10% pricing restriction.

因此，緊急狀態觸發了洛杉磯和文圖拉縣的價格限制，導致價格限制達到 10%。

And overall we've estimated and rolled that through our models that results in about 100-basis-point impact for same store revenue in 2025.

總體而言，我們透過模型進行了估算和推導，這將對 2025 年的同店收入產生約 100 個基點的影響。

So I would point you to that 100 basis points of same store revenue impact from Los Angeles.

因此我想指出的是洛杉磯對同店收入的影響為 100 個基點。

Right, I mean, I guess the question is how is market rent defined, right?

對，我的意思是，我猜問題是市場租金是如何定義的，對嗎？

So if you're at $36 right now, what does that do to ECRIs and what does that do as, kind of new people move in?

那麼，如果現在的價格是 36 美元，這會對 ECRI 產生什麼影響，對新人的遷入又會產生什麼影響？

Yeah, it has an impact to both.

是的，它對兩者都有影響。

And so we'll take that into consideration and we obviously did that in terms of forecasting the impact on same store revenue to arrive at that about 100-basis-point impact to same store revenue, Eric.

因此，我們會考慮到這一點，而且我們在預測對同店收入的影響方面顯然是這樣做的，得出了對同店收入約 100 個基點的影響，埃里克。

Alright, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And then just on capital allocation, I think last year you were repurchasing some shares this year you more recently issued.

然後就資本配置而言，我認為去年你回購了今年最近發行的一些股票。

So just curious on the framework you're using for kind of the decisions to buybacks versus equity issuance?

所以我只是好奇您在決定回購還是發行股票時所使用的框架？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So as we've consistently noted, the stock is one of the things that we evaluate as we think through capital allocation as we evaluate development, acquisition activity as well.

因此，正如我們一直指出的那樣，股票是我們在考慮資本配置以及評估開發和收購活動時評估的事項之一。

And as we move through the second quarter of last year, acquisition volumes were quite low and seller dialogue was lower, as Joe mentioned.

正如喬提到的那樣，當我們進入去年第二季時，收購量相當低，賣家對話也較低。

One of the lowest transaction volume years that we've seen over the last six or seven years and at the same time our stock was at a place that we viewed value and we didn't think it was reflective of the improving fundamentals that we were seeing on the ground.

這是過去六、七年來交易量最低的一年，同時我們的庫存處於我們認為有價值的位置，我們認為這並沒有反映出我們在實地看到的基本面改善。

And so we did repurchase $200 million in stock in the second quarter.

因此我們在第二季回購了價值 2 億美元的股票。

At the same time, we are anticipating and expecting that 2025 will be a busier year for acquisition activity.

同時，我們預計 2025 年將是收購活動更加繁忙的一年。

And we're hopeful that more ultimately comes to market and we're poised to participate in that.

我們希望最終能有更多的產品進入市場，我們也準備好參與其中。

And we thought it was prudent to add an ATM program to our tool kit, which is consistently included retained cash flow, unsecured debt preferreds to fund acquisition activity.

我們認為在我們的工具包中添加 ATM 程序是明智之舉，該程序始終包含保留現金流和無擔保債務優先股，用於資助收購活動。

And so we did introduce our first ATM program in the fall.

因此，我們確實在秋季推出了我們的第一個 ATM 程式。

We took that for a test drive in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季對此進行了試駕。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Spencer Glibsher, Green Street.

史賓塞‧格利布舍 (Spencer Glibsher)，格林街。

Thank you, I just have one more on the LA rent restrictions and I apologize as I realize it's a very sensitive topic.

謝謝，我只想再問一個關於洛杉磯租金限制的問題，我很抱歉，因為我意識到這是一個非常敏感的話題。

But how much transparency do you guys on the state in terms of the duration of these restrictions and do you have any sense of when you get an update on a potential extension of the rent cap?

但是，就這些限制措施的持續時間而言，你們對州政府的透明度有多高？您是否知道何時會收到有關可能延長租金上限的最新消息？

Yeah, Spencer.

是的，斯賓塞。

It can vary depending on a circumstances and then b the latitude that either the governor or frankly even going down to certain municipalities ultimately decide when and where to issue a state of emergency.

這可能因具體情況而異，然後由州長或坦率地說甚至某些市政當局最終決定何時何地發布緊急狀態。

Clearly the impact from the LA fires was significant directly into LA, maybe in our view less so in the Ventura County, but the Governor took that opportunity to actually extend the state of emergency for a full year.

顯然，洛杉磯火災對洛杉磯造成了重大直接影響，也許我們認為對文圖拉縣的影響較小，但州長藉此機會將緊急狀態延長了一整年。

That's somewhat unusual, meaning that you know out of the gate he would use the statute to do something for that duration.

這有點不尋常，這意味著你一開始就知道他會利用該法規在那段時間裡做一些事情。

But it is in place now technically through January of 2026, and you know from that point forward we'll have to see what transpires.

但從技術上講，該政策目前有效期至 2026 年 1 月，從那時起，我們將不得不觀察會發生什麼。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

And you provided some helpful comments earlier on your robust development pipeline.

您之前就您強大的開發流程給了一些很有幫助的評論。

And I know you slightly touched on, labor and immigration policy.

我知道您稍微談到了勞工和移民政策。

But anything you can share as it relates to the development pipeline in terms of how input and our labor prices have changed in recent months and how confident you feel about hitting development yields just in light of these fluctuating input prices?

但是您能否分享與開發管道相關的任何訊息，例如最近幾個月投入和勞動力價格的變化情況，以及考慮到這些波動的投入價格，您對實現開發收益有多大信心？

Yeah, it's too soon to tell Spencer if in fact market to market we're going to see immediate or some transition to either labor pressure, whether it's availability and or cost.

是的，現在告訴史賓塞我們是否會立即看到或看到向勞動力壓力（無論是可用性還是成本）的轉變還為時過早。

We're keeping a very close eye on that, but with the multi-state development activity that we've got going on.

我們正在密切關注這一點，但同時，我們也在進行跨州開發活動。

Nothing yet has surfaced that would indicate that immigration policy in and of itself may change that very directly in the near term.

目前還沒有任何跡象顯示移民政策本身可能會在短期內直接改變這種狀況。

But again we're keeping a very close eye on that across the board.

但我們仍將全面密切關注此事。

Same thing for anything that may or may not be impacted by tariffs, etc. I think it overall just points to the fact that development continues to be a business that you need to know very well right down to a local area, the dynamics that play through, the cost structure, the risks, etc.

對於可能受關稅等影響或不受影響的任何事物，情況都是一樣的。我認為，總的來說，這表明開發仍然是一項你需要非常了解的業務，直到當地區域、其中的動態、成本結構、風險等。

In a reverse way that's actually something that I think is going to create additional discipline relative to the volume of development activity that will likely play through in the coming year or two.

從相反的角度來說，我認為這實際上會為未來一兩年內可能出現的開發活動量帶來額外的紀律。

So we, as we have had in the past, can maneuver around some of these very differently than most other developers because of our national scale.

因此，正如我們過去所做的那樣，由於我們的全國規模，我們可以採用與大多數其他開發商截然不同的方式來處理這些問題。

The buying power that we have for component costs, the skills that we've got, and the ways that we're trying to effectively manage around those risk factors.

我們對零件成本的購買力、我們擁有的技能以及我們嘗試有效管理這些風險因素的方法。

So it's again a changing environment likely but too soon to tell to what degree.

因此，環境可能會再次發生變化，但目前判斷變化程度還為時過早。

Okay, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Samir Kanal, Evercore ISI.

Samir Kanal，Evercore ISI。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I guess my question is around ECRIs this year and how are you broadly thinking about that dynamic as you as you thought about guidance, especially with headwinds on the consumer, you've got a potentially a slower job growth market.

我想我的問題是關於今年的 ECRI，當您考慮指導時，您如何廣泛地看待這種動態，特別是在消費者面臨阻力的情況下，您的就業成長市場可能會放緩。

Do you expect these ECRIs to hold at this point this year.

您預計這些 ECRI 今年會維持在目前的水平嗎？

So it's kind of a sort of more of a broad comment for various markets.

因此，這算是針對不同市場的一種更廣泛的評論。

I know we've talked about LA, but just broadly, how are you thinking about that?

我知道我們已經談論過洛杉磯，但從廣義上講，您對此有什麼看法？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So as I noted earlier, we continue to see really good performance from our existing customer base and really looking at at any metric, be it delinquency or move outs.

因此，正如我之前提到的，我們繼續看到現有客戶群的良好表現，並且真正關注任何指標，無論是拖欠率還是搬出率。

We continue to see really strong performance there.

我們繼續看到那裡的強勁表現。

And you know our testing and modeling indicates, very consistent price sensitivity as well.

而且您知道我們的測試和建模表明，價格敏感度也非常一致。

And so big picture.

還有這麼大的圖片。

The midpoint of the guidance range assumes for the same sort of revenue that we see pretty consistent performances last year and contribution from existing customer rent increases away from Los Angeles.

指導範圍的中點假設收入與去年相當穩定的表現相同，並且來自洛杉磯以外現有客戶的租金上漲的貢獻。

And obviously in Los Angeles for everything we just highlighted, we'll have a lower contribution.

顯然，在洛杉磯，就我們剛才強調的所有情況而言，我們的貢獻會較低。

So in aggregate across the country, a lower contribution year over year but really pretty consistent performance in other markets.

因此，從全國整體來看，貢獻率逐年下降，但在其他市場的表現卻相當穩定。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

And then, just as a follow up, I'm sorry if I missed this.

然後，作為後續，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉。

But you talked about moving rents to be down 5% at the midpoint of guidance.

但是您談到將租金在指導中位數處下降 5%。

What are you assuming at the high end of guidance?

您對最高指導價有何假設？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, at the high end of the range embedded in those assumptions is about a 3% decline in moving rents on average, so steady improvement through the year there.

是的，這些假設的高端是平均移動租金下降約 3％，因此全年租金將穩步改善。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Kebin Kim, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Kebin Kim。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Can you just remind us what were the ECRI increases in LA last year just trying to calibrate.

您能否提醒我們去年洛杉磯的 ECRI 增幅是多少，以便進行校準。

How much that 1%, reserve accounts for a potential limit on ECRIs?

那 1% 的儲備金對 ECRI 的潛在限制是多少？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no, I think in LA, like every market, we take there's a wide variety of different increases.

是的，不，我認為在洛杉磯，就像每個市場一樣，我們會遇到各種不同的成長。

Both frequency and magnitude that we will utilize.

我們將利用頻率和幅度。

LA was no different than than a typical market last year and again would point you to that 100-basis-point same store revenue impact from Los Angeles in 2025.

洛杉磯與去年的典型市場沒有什麼不同，並且會再次指出 2025 年洛杉磯的同店收入將增加 100 個基點。

Okay.

好的。

And this might be a little bit early, but are you seeing any signs of increased housing turnover in the DC area?

現在可能有點早，但你是否看到華盛頓特區住房週轉率增加的跡象？

Perhaps related to those

也許與那些有關

--

--

To do we're keeping a close eye on that too, obviously a lot of headlines coming out of DC with Doge and the different ways that employment levels in that market could change.

為此，我們也在密切關注這一點，顯然華盛頓傳出了許多有關 Doge 的頭條新聞，以及該市場就業水平可能發生變化的不同方式。

But far too soon to tell, couldn't guide you to anything that we've seen on the front lines yet.

但現在說這些還為時過早，我們無法告訴你我們在前線看到的任何情況。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Caitlin Burroughs, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）凱特琳·伯勒斯 (Caitlin Burroughs)，高盛。

Hi everyone.

大家好。

I guess maybe just going back to the capital allocation question.

我想也許只是回到資本配置問題。

It sounds like you're constructive on the acquisition outlook and equity is one of the tools that you could use.

聽起來你對收購前景持建設性態度，而股權是你可以採取的工具之一。

So just wondering if you could comment on kind of target leverage levels where you are today?

所以我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您目前的目標槓桿水平？

Would you look to keep leverage where it is or what would make you maybe want to go lower or higher?

您是否希望保持槓桿率不變或什麼因素使您可能希望降低或提高槓桿率？

Yeah, sure, on acquisitions, as Joe highlighted, we are optimistic that there will be more activity this year.

是的，正如喬所強調的那樣，關於收購，我們樂觀地認為今年將會有更多活動。

We are going to be relying on interest rates and things like that that will skew the levels of seller dialogue and activity this year the way we have the last several years where we've seen certain quarters where dialogue picks up and then slows down.

我們將依賴利率和諸如此類的因素來扭曲今年賣方對話和活動的水平，就像過去幾年那樣，我們看到在某些季度對話加快然後放緩。

But we're overall quite optimistic as to how we're starting this year compared to last year.

但與去年相比，我們對今年的開局總體上還是相當樂觀的。

In terms of leverage, specifically, we finished the year with net leverage at 3.9 times net debt and preferred to EBITDA

具體來說，就槓桿率而言，我們今年的淨槓桿率為淨債務的 3.9 倍，並且更傾向於 EBITDA

.

。

Our long term target is 4 times to 5 times, so we continue to have a leverage level that's a touch below our long term average and so certainly capacity to add leverage through unsecured debt and preferred.

我們的長期目標是 4 倍到 5 倍，因此我們的槓桿率仍然略低於長期平均水平，因此肯定有能力透過無擔保債務和優先股來增加槓桿率。

At the same time, Joe highlighted that our retained cash flow is increasing from $400 million to $$600 million this year and would look to deploy that into the acquisition market as well.

同時，喬強調，我們今年的留存現金流將從 4 億美元增加到 6 億美元，也將考慮將其部署到收購市場。

And then as you noted we did add an ATM program in place as well as an additional tool.

然後正如您所說，我們確實添加了 ATM 程式以及其他工具。

But really feel like we have a lot of great tools to finance the business and activity into 2025.

但確實感覺我們有很多很好的工具來為 2025 年的業務和活動提供資金。

And are hopeful that there will be good opportunities to utilize those tools.

並希望有良好的機會利用這些工具。

Okay, and then I know you talked a little bit about development earlier.

好的，我知道您之前談到了一點關於發展的問題。

Wondering if you could give any more detail on like how much the PSA portfolio was impacted by other supply headwinds in 2024.

想知道您是否可以提供更多詳細信息，例如 2024 年 PSA 投資組合受到其他供應逆風的影響有多大。

And how that factors into your, or I guess what you're expecting for 2025 supply headwinds and how that factors into guidance?

這對您是否會產生影響？或者我猜您對 2025 年供應逆風的期望是什麼？這對您是否會產生指導作用？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

The overall industry wide, our data that we're looking at would indicate that new supply as a percentage of existing stock around the country was right around 3%.

從整個行業來看，我們正在查看的數據表明，全國新供應量佔現有庫存的百分比約為 3%。

Last year we are anticipating that that will decline down to circa 2.5% plus or minus in '25.

去年我們預計到25年這數字將下降到約2.5%左右。

So some modest improvements there.

因此那裡有一些適度的改進。

It's part of really what has been a multi-year decline in overall deliveries over the last several years.

這是過去幾年整體交付量連續多年下滑的一部分原因。

So anticipate a benefit there.

因此可以預見那裡會有好處。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ronald Camden, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆登。

Hey, just two quick ones for me.

嘿，對我來說只需問兩個問題。

I think you talked earlier about sort of the benefit of the mobile app and being able to reduce sort of labor hours.

我覺得您之前談到了行動應用程式的好處以及能夠減少工時。

I guess I'm just curious as AI sort of proliferates.

我想我只是對人工智慧的普及感到好奇。

Are there any sort of obvious low hanging fruits, whether it's leasing and accounting that you guys are looking at where you know AI could have an impact?

你們正在研究的租賃和會計領域是否有任何明顯的低成本優勢，你們知道人工智慧可能會對這些領域產生影響嗎？

Yeah, sure, Ronald.

是的，當然，羅納德。

There's a lot of areas, as I mentioned that tied to AI relative to the whole digitalization that we've actually been working on now for multiple years.

正如我所提到的，有很多領域與人工智慧相關，而整個數位化領域我們實際上已經致力於此很多年了。

The combined benefit whether it is through the app, which you know now we've got now 1.5 million customers using that tool, whether it's through the way we're interfacing with customers, there's new and different tools there either through our care center.

無論是透過應用程式（您知道現在我們有 150 萬客戶使用該工具），還是透過我們與客戶互動的方式，還是透過我們的護理中心提供的新工具和不同的工具，我們的綜合優勢都是如此。

The things that we're doing on our website, et cetera.

我們在網站上做的事情等等。

So the penetration and optimization from an AI skill and impact standpoint continues to grow.

因此，從人工智慧技能和影響的角度來看，滲透率和優化仍在不斷增長。

We continue to be very cautious relative to how far we take that step by step.

我們對於下一步的行動將採取怎樣的措施保持謹慎。

But we're seeing very good balance of skill and impact versus, the investment that making into those tools very uniquely.

但我們看到技能和影響力與對這些工具的獨特投資之間的平衡非常好。

The overall investment we've made into our entire digital platform is highly additive not only to optimizing efficiency from our standpoint.

從我們的角度來看，我們對整個數位平台的整體投資不僅有助於優化效率，而且具有很強的附加價值。

But it's customer satisfaction, customer processes.

但它是客戶滿意度、客戶流程。

Again, we're seeing very strong conversion opportunities, a lot of that ties to and the way that we're putting different tools into each and every channel that we interface with customers.

再次，我們看到了非常強大的轉換機會，其中許多與我們在與客戶互動的每個管道中採用不同的工具的方式有關。

So a lot more to come there.

因此，未來還會有更多事情發生。

But we're very encouraged by the investment and the impact that that continues to have on not only customer interaction but also margins, efficiency, employee satisfaction, employee skill, et cetera.

但我們對這項投資感到非常鼓舞，它不僅對客戶互動產生影響，而且對利潤、效率、員工滿意度、員工技能等也產生影響。

So a lot of good things to come there.

因此，將會有很多好事發生。

Great.

偉大的。

And then my second question is just going back to the CapEx commentary on the property enhancements, being over, is that something that happens every every couple of years, and so forth and then the energy efficiency spending, is that something we should expect to also sort of go away at some point.

然後我的第二個問題是回到關於房地產增值的資本支出評論，這是每隔幾年就會發生的事情，然後是能源效率支出，我們是否應該預計在某個時候也會消失。

So there's some deep areas there that you know with a 250 million square foot portfolio we've got a lot of great things to do with efficiencies relative to the infrastructure of our properties, whether it's HVAC related, whether it's solar related, whether we can continue to invest in the right long term.

因此，您知道，這裡有一些深入的領域，我們擁有 2.5 億平方英尺的投資組合，在提高我們物業基礎設施效率方面有很多很棒的事情要做，無論是與暖通空調相關，還是與太陽能相關，無論我們是否可以繼續進行正確的長期投資。

Tools that whether again we see cost savings and or optimizations from an energy efficiency standpoint.

從能源效率的角度來看，這些工具是否能再次實現成本節約和最佳化。

The Property of Tomorrow program was frankly that was about a 20-year cycle where we stepped back five plus years ago and made the commitment to holistically change the entire branding of the portfolio which we hadn't done in the last 15 or 20 years in one fell swoop.

坦白說，「明日地產」計畫是一個大約 20 年的周期，我們在五年多前回顧過去，並承諾全面改變整個投資組合的品牌，這是我們在過去 15 年或 20 年裡沒有做過的。

So that's not anything that we do every couple of years.

所以這不是我們每隔幾年就會做的事情。

We hope to get a very good long term usage out of that investment.

我們希望這項投資能帶來長期良好的效益。

On top of that though, the day to day environment of Either optimization, whether it's lighting, whether it's energy efficiency, new tools around solars, we continue to talk about and other ways that we will make investments in the properties and make them that much more optimized or things that we take on a case by case basis, and I think we continue to see good returns where and when we make those investment decisions.

除此之外，我們還在繼續討論日常環境的優化，無論是照明、能源效率還是太陽能方面的新工具，以及其他我們將對房產進行投資並使其更加優化的方式，或者我們根據具體情況採取的措施，我認為，無論何時何地，只要我們做出這些投資決策，我們都會繼續看到良好的回報。

Great thanks so much.

非常好，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Muller, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

Yeah, hi, sorry, two more LA questions, I guess.

是的，嗨，抱歉，我想還有兩個關於洛杉磯的問題。

First, are the headwinds in the forecast coming only from lower ECRI potential?

首先，預測中的阻力是否僅來自較低的 ECRI 潛力？

Or are you not able to have a kind of a normal seasonal lift in move-in rates as you move into the spring?

或者說，隨著春季的到來，入住率是否無法出現正常的季節性成長？

And then the second question was can you give us a sense as to how different your year-to-year move-in rate assumption of down 5% would be if you strip LA out?

然後第二個問題是，您能否告訴我們，如果您剔除洛杉磯，您假設的年比入住率下降 5% 會有何不同？

Sure, so two components there.

當然，那裡有兩個組成部分。

One is the first one around what are the the primary drivers of the 100 basis points.

第一個問題是圍繞 100 個基點的主要驅動因素是什麼。

And I would point you to existing customer rent increases as bringing the primary driver of that impact.

我想指出的是，現有客戶的租金上漲是造成這種影響的主要因素。

And that goes then to the second question around.

這就引出第二個問題。

What a move in rents look like.

租金變動情況如何。

I would say move in rents in LA are a little bit better than the the company average was before the state of emergency.

我想說洛杉磯的入住租金比緊急狀態之前的公司平均值好一點。

And continues to be and that speaks to the strength of overall fundamentals in Los Angeles kind of in and out of cycles through last year and and anticipated improvements over time there.

而這種情況會持續下去，這說明洛杉磯整體基本面強勁，在去年的周期中一直處於起伏不定的狀態，並且預計隨著時間的推移會有所改善。

And so on that, the rest of the country was probably a little bit worse than LA going into the state of emergency, and the state of emergency pricing restrictions aren't likely to have a significant impact on move-in rents and more the impact being felt on existing customer rent increases.

除此之外，全國其他地區進入緊急狀態的情況可能比洛杉磯稍微糟糕一些，緊急狀態下的定價限制不太可能對入住租金產生重大影響，更多的是對現有客戶租金上漲的影響。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Brandon Lynch, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·林奇。

Great, thanks for taking my question.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask about acquisitions and any particular markets that you might be targeting or an urban versus suburban skew or any other property characteristics that you're aiming for?

我想問一下有關收購以及您可能瞄準的任何特定市場，或者城市與郊區的偏差，或者您所瞄準的任何其他房地產特徵？

Yeah, Brendan, I wouldn't say one.

是的，布倫丹，我不會說一個。

Focus puts us in a different priority whether it's urban, suburban, or geographic, it comes right down to the quality of the individual asset and how we see value creation relative to the position we may already have in the market.

無論是城市、郊區還是地理，關注點都會為我們帶來不同的優先順序，這都取決於單一資產的質量，以及我們如何看待相對於我們在市場上可能已經擁有的地位而創造的價值。

And or with larger portfolios how benefited we might be from multiple assets going into multiple markets.

或者，對於更大的投資組合，我們將可能從多種資產進入多個市場中獲益。

So it's a combination of all of those things.

所以它是所有這些因素的結合。

But our underwriting process goes right down to an individual asset and the value that we see from that asset, the contribution it makes to the scale and the effect of this we may have on the market.

但我們的核保流程直接涉及單一資產、我們從該資產中看到的價值、它對規模的貢獻以及它可能對市場產生的影響。

So we aren't limiting ourselves to either specific geographies and or urban versus suburban characteristics, and we'll continue to see opportunities across the whole spectrum.

因此，我們不會將自己局限於特定的地理位置或城市與郊區的特徵，我們將繼續在整個範圍內尋找機會。

Great, thanks.

非常好，謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

You're also guiding to lower street rates here every year.

您還指導每年降低這裡的街道費率。

But maybe not giving up so much on occupancy or don't anticipate doing so.

但也許不會在入住率上放棄太多，或者不會預期這樣做。

Can you just walk us through your thought process on these components and where you're planning to be more stern versus more flexible?

您能否向我們介紹一下您對這些組成部分的思考過程，以及您計劃在哪些方面更加嚴厲，哪些方面更加靈活？

Sure, so we've already spoken a good bit about the move and run assumptions as it relates to the occupancy assumptions.

當然，我們已經討論了很多關於移動和運行假設與佔用假設之間的關係。

It relates to the expectation that we are experiencing stabilization and demand.

這與我們正在經歷穩定和需求的預期有關。

And we'll continue to navigate through that.

我們將繼續探索這個問題。

So we've seen over the last several years declines in occupancy, but less so each year and anticipate that that's the case this year.

因此，我們看到過去幾年入住率有所下降，但每年的下降幅度都在縮小，預計今年的情況仍是如此。

Ultimately, we're looking to maximize revenues overall, not looking specifically to occupancy or rental rates.

最終，我們希望實現整體收入最大化，而不是特別關注入住率或租金率。

And that's how we think about day to day the pricing algorithms and optimization processes that take place day in and day out.

這就是我們每天思考的定價演算法和日復一日進行的最佳化過程。

In terms of the range there, right, occupancy is expected to be better on the higher end and a little softer on the lower end as you'd anticipate.

就那裡的範圍而言，正如您所預料的，預計高端的入住率會更好，而低端的入住率會稍微低一些。

But generally speaking, a relatively flat occupancy year against the demand backdrop that we're expecting to be relatively consistent.

但總體而言，在我們預計相對穩定的需求背景下，今年的入住率相對穩定。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Teo [Asanya], Deutsche Bank.

Teo[Asanya]，德意志銀行。

Yes, good morning out there.

是的，早安。

Just a question around consumer sentiment data came out today pretty weak.

只是一個關於今天發布的消費者信心數據的疑問，數據相當疲軟。

A lot of retailers this week have kind of been talking about kind of a softer consumer.

本週，許多零售商都在談論消費疲軟的問題。

Curious how you guys are kind of thinking about that in the context of demand and pricing?

好奇你們在需求和定價的背景下是如何考慮這個問題的？

If not for all of 2025, at least on a near term basis in the first half of '25?

如果不是整個 2025 年，至少在 2025 年上半年的短期內呢？

Sure, I think. over the last several years, retailers have consistently pointed to a softer consumer, softer activity, and one of the benefits of Storage that we've experienced is that some of those customers or really the customer cohorts that have moved in over the last several years have been some of our stronger cohorts over time in terms of delinquency, move out trends, and the like.

當然，我認為。在過去幾年中，零售商一直在強調消費者的消費意願和活動都較為疲軟，而我們從儲存中體驗到的其中一個好處是，在拖欠率、遷出趨勢等方面來看，過去幾年中遷入的一些客戶或客戶群體已經成為我們實力較強的群體。

And so while the retailers are certainly seeing one thing, I think the storage customers continue to be resilient over the last several years, and we're experiencing that as we speak, starting 2025 as well.

因此，雖然零售商確實看到了一件事，但我認為儲存客戶在過去幾年中繼續保持彈性，我們正在經歷這種情況，從 2025 年開始也是如此。

No question that's something we watch very closely.

毫無疑問這是我們密切關注的事情。

But not something that we've seen the way maybe some of the other retailers have highlighted.

但我們所看到的可能與其他零售商所強調的情況不同。

In terms of overall demand though, no question we've seen overall demand for storage come down from the highs of 2021, and we've spoken a good bit around some of the mixed shift between housing transaction volumes and people that ran out of space at home.

不過，就整體需求而言，毫無疑問，我們已經看到對儲存的整體需求從 2021 年的高點回落，而且我們已經就住房交易量和家中空間不足的人之間的一些混合轉變進行了大量討論。

But overall we're viewing this year is a year pretty similar to last year across those metrics.

但總體而言，從這些指標來看，我們認為今年與去年非常相似。

And so we are encouraged by customer behavior through '24 and the start '25.

因此，我們對 24 年和 25 年初的客戶行為感到鼓舞。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Caitlin Burroughs, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的凱特琳·伯勒斯 (Caitlin Burroughs)。

Oh hi, I just had a follow up on maybe development yields.

哦，嗨，我剛剛對可能的開發收益進行了跟踪。

You guys give some nice kind of disclosure on previous years of development and how those are, I guess leasing up in the yields they're producing.

你們對前幾年的發展進行了很好的披露，我猜想這些發展會提高租賃的收益率。

But as you guys think about the more recent developments and then projects in process.

但是，你們想想最近的發展以及正在進行的項目。

Could you give a little color on how you're expecting those to kind of lease up in the pace at which they reach stabilization and whether that's changed in recent years?

您能否稍微說明一下，您預計這些租金將以何種速度達到穩定，以及這種情況近年來是否發生了變化？

Sure, yeah, we continue to underwrite and target 8% plus or minus target yields and as you noted, we continue to meet or exceed those in prior vintages.

當然，是的，我們繼續承保並將目標收益率定為 8% 左右，正如您所說，我們將繼續達到或超過前幾年的收益率。

In terms of lease up pace, we consistently are underwriting circa three to four years to reach that level of stabilization.

就租賃速度而言，我們一直以大約三到四年的承保期來達到穩定水準。

No question we saw faster lease up and stabilization in some of the vintages that delivered during the really strong demand periods in '21, for instance, in 2020.

毫無疑問，我們看到在21年需求真正強勁的時期（例如2020年）交付的一些年份的葡萄酒的租賃速度加快且趨於穩定。

But consistently we're expecting that it will take three to four years as we obviously open the property and start from a zero occupancy spot.

但我們一直預計，這將需要三到四年的時間，因為我們顯然是開放該物業並從零入住率開始。

Got it.

知道了。

And so it doesn't sound like there's been any change to that like again 8% target over three to four years.

因此，聽起來三到四年內 8% 的目標不會有任何變化。

No, that's right.

不，沒錯。

We think that's a very strong risk adjusted return and one that we'll continue to target.

我們認為這是一個非常強勁的風險調整回報，我們將繼續以此為目標。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We have reached the end of the question and answer session.

問答環節已經結束。

I'd now like to turn the call back over to Ryan Burke for closing comments.

現在我想將電話轉回給 Ryan Burke 來做最後評論。

Thanks, Rob, and as always, thanks to all of you for joining us.

謝謝，羅布，一如既往，謝謝大家加入我們。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This includes today's conference.

其中包括今天的會議。

You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

您現在可以斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。