PROG Holdings Inc (PRG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PROG Holdings Q2 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, John Baugh, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁約翰·鮑夫 (John Baugh)。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the PROG Holdings second-quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Steve Michaels, PROG Holdings' President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Garner, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起出席的還有 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steve Michaels 和我們的財務長 Brian Garner。

Many of you have already seen a copy of our earnings release issued this morning. which is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.progholdings.com. During this call, certain statements we make will be forward looking, including comments regarding our revised 2025 full-year outlook, and our guidance for the third quarter of 2025, the health of our lease portfolio and our capital allocation priorities.

各位可能已經看到了我們今天早上發布的收益報告副本，該報告可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.progholdings.com 上查閱。在本次電話會議中，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，包括關於我們修訂後的 2025 年全年展望、2025 年第三季業績指引、租賃組合的健康狀況以及資本配置重點的評論。

Listeners are cautioned not to place undue emphasis on forward-looking statements we make today, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update any such statements.

敬請聽眾不要過度強調我們今天所作的前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述都存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何此類聲明的義務。

On today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS, which have been adjusted for certain items which may affect the comparability of our performance with other companies.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA 和非 GAAP EPS，這些指標已針對某些項目進行了調整，這可能會影響我們與其他公司的業績可比性。

These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release. The company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful insight into the company's operational performance and cash flows, and provides these measures to investors to help facilitate comparisons of operating results with prior periods, and to assist them in understanding the company's ongoing operational performance.

這些非公認會計準則指標在我們的收益報告的調節表中有詳細說明。本公司認為，這些非公認會計準則財務指標能夠為了解公司的營運績效和現金流量提供有意義的見解，並向投資者提供這些指標，以幫助他們將營運績效與前期進行比較，並幫助他們了解公司持續的營運績效。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Steve Michaels, PROG Holdings' President and Chief Executive Officer. Steve?

接下來，我想將電話轉給 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steve Michaels。史蒂夫？

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will discuss our second-quarter performance, update you on our business and provide insights on our outlook for the remainder of 2025.

謝謝，約翰。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天，我們將討論第二季的業績，向您介紹我們的業務，並提供 2025 年剩餘時間的展望的見解。

We delivered revenue and earnings above the high end of our guidance, driven by effective portfolio management, continued strength in our pay in for Buy now Pay Later platform for technologies and disciplined cost control. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.02 significantly exceeded our outlook range of $0.75 to $0.85 per share.

在有效的投資組合管理、「先買後付」技術平台的持續強勁發展以及嚴格的成本控制的推動下，我們的收入和收益超過了預期的高點。非公認會計準則每股收益 1.02 美元，大大超出了我們預期的每股 0.75 美元至 0.85 美元的範圍。

We are focused on improving results across the business as we lean into pipeline opportunities, expansion of our online platforms and removing friction from customer touch points. Progressive Leasing's year-over-year GMV performance was impacted in the period by two primary factors.

我們致力於改善整個業務的業績，因為我們傾向於利用通路機會、擴展我們的線上平台並消除客戶接觸點的摩擦。在此期間，Progressive Leasing 的 GMV 同比表現受到兩個主要因素的影響。

The Big Lots bankruptcy from late 2024, which is approximately a $40 million GMV headwind this quarter, and our deliberate tightening actions in the second half of 2024 and early 2025, which impacted GMV to a similar degree year-over-year.

Big Lots 從 2024 年底開始破產，這對本季的 GMV 造成了約 4000 萬美元的不利影響，而我們在 2024 年下半年和 2025 年初採取的刻意緊縮措施對 GMV 的影響與去年同期相比也達到了類似程度。

Adjusting for these relatively discrete events, we are executing nicely with expansion of our balance of share within key retail partners and ramping new partners year-over-year. While the tightening actions have weighed on GMV, we've once again demonstrated our commitment and ability to deliver consistent portfolio performance within our targeted annual write-off range of 6% to 8%, a key guardrail for sustainable and profitable growth.

在針對這些相對離散的事件進行調整後，我們執行得很好，在主要零售合作夥伴中的份額平衡不斷擴大，新合作夥伴的數量也在逐年增加。雖然緊縮措施對 GMV 造成了壓力，但我們再次證明了我們的承諾和能力，即在 6% 至 8% 的目標年度註銷範圍內實現穩定的投資組合表現，這是實現可持續盈利增長的關鍵保障。

These results demonstrate the strength of our retail partnerships, the effectiveness of our commercial execution and the durability of our go-to-market model despite the ongoing soft demand for leasing categories we serve.

儘管我們所服務的租賃類別需求持續疲軟，但這些結果證明了我們零售合作夥伴關係的強大、商業執行的有效性以及市場進入模式的持久性。

Consolidated revenue came in at $604.7 million, which was low single-digit growth year-over-year. This performance was led by another standout quarter from Four Technologies, which delivered over 200% revenue growth. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $73.5 million and non-GAAP EPS was $1.02, both exceeding the high end of our outlook. Our lease portfolio once again exceeded expectations with strong performance.

綜合收入為 6.047 億美元，年比僅實現低個位數成長。這項業績由 Four Technologies 的另一個出色季度所引領，其營收成長超過 200%。合併調整後 EBITDA 為 7,350 萬美元，非 GAAP EPS 為 1.02 美元，均超過了我們預期的高端。我們的租賃組合再次以強勁的表現超越預期。

In Q2, write-offs came in at 7.5%, which is 20 basis points better than last year reinforcing our ability to actively manage portfolio risk and deliver consistent performance even amid a dynamic consumer environment.

第二季度，註銷率為 7.5%，比去年高出 20 個基點，增強了我們積極管理投資組合風險並在動態消費環境中提供穩定績效的能力。

This strength is the result of proactive decisioning adjustments made in late '24 and early 2025, which continued to drive favorable early-stage indicators. These actions reflect our disciplined data-driven approach to portfolio optimization.

這種優勢是 2024 年末和 2025 年初做出的主動決策調整的結果，這些調整繼續推動了有利的早期指標。這些行動體現了我們嚴謹的數據驅動投資組合最佳化方法。

With the portfolio performing well and early-stage indicators trending favorably, our decision science teams are identifying pockets of opportunity to deliver incremental GMV. We are committed to maintaining disciplined decisioning standards and expect write-offs to remain within our targeted annual range of 6% to 8%.

由於投資組合表現良好且早期指標呈現良好趨勢，我們的決策科學團隊正在尋找實現增量 GMV 的機會。我們致力於維持嚴謹的決策標準，並預期註銷率將保持在我們目標的 6% 至 8% 的年度範圍內。

We generated meaningful momentum in Progressive Leasing during the quarter, supported by strong execution across our direct-to-consumer initiatives. These efforts such as personalized life cycle campaigns and targeted digital outreach are driving engagement across new, repeat and reactivated customer segments.

本季度，我們為 Progressive Leasing 創造了有意義的發展勢頭，這得益於我們直接面向消費者的計劃的強勁執行。個人化生命週期活動和有針對性的數位推廣等努力正在推動新客戶、回頭客和重新激活的客戶群的參與。

Additionally, we are scaling our PROG Marketplace platform, delivering double-digit GMV growth and staying on track to surpass $75 million in GMV for 2025, reinforcing its role as a complementary channel that enhances our retail ecosystem and expands customer engagement opportunities. Efforts to increase our e-commerce business show progress. In Q2, e-commerce as a percentage of Progressive Leasing GMV was at an all-time high, representing approximately 21% of total leasing GMV.

此外，我們正在擴大我們的 PROG 市場平台，實現兩位數的 GMV 成長，並有望在 2025 年實現超過 7500 萬美元的 GMV，從而加強其作為補充管道的作用，增強我們的零售生態系統並擴大客戶參與機會。我們為擴大電子商務業務所做的努力已取得進展。第二季度，電子商務在 Progressive Leasing GMV 中的佔比達到歷史最高水平，約佔總租賃 GMV 的 21%。

These results demonstrate our momentum under the Grow strategic pillar. We are growing market share with existing retail partners by executing jointly on key initiatives. Our marketing investments ranging from enhanced SEO to personalized data-driven campaigns are driving measurable gains in both customer acquisition and retention.

這些結果證明了我們在「成長」策略支柱下的強勁發展勢頭。我們與現有零售合作夥伴共同執行關鍵舉措，持續擴大市場佔有率。我們的行銷投資涵蓋從增強型搜尋引擎優化 (SEO) 到個人化數據驅動型活動，在客戶獲取和保留方面均取得了可衡量的收益。

Under our Enhanced pillar, we are advancing technology initiatives that elevate the customer and retailer experience. We are improving top-of-the-funnel web and mobile functionality for customers, streamlining the application process, and introducing AI-driven tools to improve customer engagement and reduce friction.

在我們的增強支柱下，我們正在推動技術舉措，以提升客戶和零售商的體驗。我們正在為客戶改進漏斗頂端的網路和行動功能，簡化申請流程，並引入人工智慧驅動的工具來提高客戶參與度並減少摩擦。

These investments will help us personalize segment and nurture with more precision. Our PROG Labs team is leveraging generative AI to boost employee productivity and enhance customer tools, including AI chatbots that provide real-time support, personalized recommendations and faster resolution of common service inquiries, ultimately improving the overall customer experience.

這些投資將幫助我們更精準地實現個人化細分和培育。我們的 PROG Labs 團隊正在利用生成性 AI 來提高員工生產力並增強客戶工具，包括提供即時支援、個人化推薦和更快解決常見服務查詢的 AI 聊天機器人，最終改善整體客戶體驗。

In Q2, we expanded our rollout of our new consumer chat feature to more progressive leasing customers after the success of our pilot from Q1, and now have consumer chat capabilities across Leasing, Four and Money App, our cash advanced solution.

繼第一季試播成功之後，我們在第二季將新的消費者聊天功能推廣至更多高級租賃客戶，現在我們的現金預付解決方案 Leasing、Four 和 Money App 均具備消費者聊天功能。

This digital servicing initiative is already showing promising results, helping us better engage with customers. We've seen a lift in application starts and completions through AI-assisted interactions, along with a reduction in call center volumes, indicators that these new AI tools have the potential to create value for both our customers and our business.

這項數位服務計劃已經顯示出良好的效果，幫助我們更好地與客戶互動。我們看到透過人工智慧輔助交互，應用程式的啟動和完成量有所提升，同時呼叫中心數量的減少，這表明這些新的人工智慧工具有可能為我們的客戶和業務創造價值。

Looking ahead, we're preparing to expand the chat platform to include several self-service capabilities. These enhancements are designed to further improve the experience, reduce friction in our servicing model, and ultimately shift more volume into lower cost digital channels.

展望未來，我們正準備擴展聊天平台，以包含多種自助服務功能。這些增強功能旨在進一步改善體驗，減少我們服務模式中的摩擦，並最終將更多的量轉移到成本較低的數位管道。

Our Expand pillar is building real momentum, and I'm particularly excited about the progress we're seeing from Four Technologies. Four delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit GMV and revenue growth, continuing a positive trajectory that reflects the strength of our strategy and execution. We acquired Four Technologies in 2021 during a period of rapid expansion in the BNPL sector, though much of that industry growth lacked a clear path to profitability.

我們的 Expand 支柱正在形成真正的勢頭，我對 Four Technologies 所取得的進展感到特別興奮。Four 連續第七個季度實現了三位數的 GMV 和收入成長，繼續保持積極的成長軌跡，反映了我們策略和執行力的強勁。我們在 2021 年收購了 Four Technologies，當時正值 BNPL 產業快速擴張時期，儘管該產業的大部分成長缺乏明確的獲利途徑。

From the outset, our vision was to scale the business differently by integrating it into our broader ecosystem and aligning it with our mission to deliver flexible, empowering financial solutions for consumers, in a profitable manner.

從一開始，我們的願景就是透過將業務整合到我們更廣泛的生態系統中，並使其與我們的使命保持一致，以盈利的方式為消費者提供靈活、有力的金融解決方案，從而以不同的方式擴展業務。

Over the past several years, we remain focused on building Four deliberately, prioritizing sustainable unit economics and responsible growth. I'm proud to share that in Q1 of 2025, we achieved profitability in the Four business.

過去幾年來，我們始終專注於精心打造 Four，優先考慮可持續的單位經濟和負責任的成長。我很自豪地告訴大家，2025 年第一季度，我們的 Four 業務實現了獲利。

And with another profitable performance in Q2, we're now accelerating our momentum. In the second quarter, Four delivered 167% GMV growth year over year, reflecting demand for our Pay and Four BNPL product and increasing relevance with both consumers and merchants.

隨著第二季度再次實現盈利，我們的發展勢頭正在加速。第二季度，Four 的 GMV 年增 167%，反映了市場對我們的 Pay 和 Four BNPL 產品的需求，以及與消費者和商家的相關性不斷提高。

Revenue grew over 200% supported by a trailing 12-month take rate of approximately 10%, defined as revenue generated as a percentage of GMV over the 12-month period, which is a strong indicator of monetization efficiency as we scale the platform.

營收成長超過 200%，這得益於過去 12 個月約 10% 的佣金率，佣金率定義為 12 個月期間產生的收入佔 GMV 的百分比，這是我們在擴展平台時實現貨幣化效率的有力指標。

From a customer lens, Four's engagement trends are strong. Average purchase frequency is steady year-over-year. And for the last four quarters, it was approximately [5x] per quarter, coupled with over 130% growth in active shoppers year over year. We're seeing growth in active shoppers and unique retailers, which is expanding the addressable opportunity in contributing to GMV.

從客戶角度來看，Four 的參與趨勢強勁。平均購買頻率較去年同期保持穩定。在過去的四個季度中，每季的成長速度約為 [5 倍]，同時活躍購物者的數量較去年同期成長超過 130%。我們看到活躍購物者和獨特零售商的數量正在增長，這擴大了對 GMV 貢獻的潛在機會。

Our [Four plus] subscription service launched in early 2024, has seen robust adoption, with more than 85% of GMV now driven by active subscribers. These results reinforce Four's growing role in our ecosystem, not just as a stand-alone growth engine, but as a compelling customer acquisition channel and catalyst for cross-sell into Progressive Leasing, driving deeper engagement and increasing customer lifetime value across the PROG platform.

我們於 2024 年初推出的 [Four plus] 訂閱服務得到了廣泛的採用，目前超過 85% 的 GMV 由活躍訂閱者推動。這些結果強化了 Four 在我們的生態系統中日益增長的作用，它不僅是一個獨立的成長引擎，而且是一個引人注目的客戶獲取管道和向 Progressive Leasing 交叉銷售的催化劑，推動更深入的參與並提高整個 PROG 平台的客戶終身價值。

I want to thank our team for their focused execution and disciplined approach, which advances our growth strategy, while supporting margin expansion. As we look ahead, we are committed to enhancing the user experience on the Four platform, and sustaining momentum through both direct initiatives and its strategic role within the broader PROG ecosystem. Also within our Expand pillar, I'm pleased to share that Money App our cash advanced solution is gaining traction.

我要感謝我們團隊的專注執行和嚴謹作風，這推進了我們的成長策略，同時支持了利潤率的擴大。展望未來，我們致力於提升 Four 平台上的使用者體驗，並透過直接措施及其在更廣泛的 PROG 生態系統中的策略角色保持發展勢頭。此外，在我們的 Expand 支柱內，我很高興地告訴大家，我們的現金預付解決方案 Money App 正在獲得關注。

The product is now delivering consistent unit-level profitability, an important milestone as we scale this offering thoughtfully. We are focused on executing our strategy with discipline and intention. While the macro environment presents headwinds, particularly as consumers remain cautious around large discretionary purchases, we factored these dynamics into our outlook for the balance of the year, which Brian will speak to in more detail.

該產品目前正在提供一致的單位級盈利能力，這是我們在深思熟慮地擴展該產品時的一個重要里程碑。我們專注於有紀律、有目的性地執行我們的策略。儘管宏觀環境存在阻力，特別是消費者對大宗可自由支配的購買仍保持謹慎，但我們已將這些動態納入對今年剩餘時間的展望中，Brian 將對此進行更詳細的闡述。

Our guidance assumes ongoing softness in demand across key leasable categories, along with no changes to our current decisioning posture that has shaped much of the first half. We've also accounted for higher 90-day purchase activity compared to 2024 and stable portfolio performance within our 6% to 8% right off range.

我們的指導假設主要可租賃類別的需求持續疲軟，同時我們目前的決策態勢不會改變，而這種態勢對上半年的大部分時間產生了影響。與 2024 年相比，我們還觀察到 90 天的購買活動增加，且投資組合表現穩定在 6% 至 8% 的範圍內。

Despite the unpredictable environment, we are confident in our ability to continue gaining share and driving sustainable, profitable growth, powered by our multiproduct ecosystem, disciplined portfolio performance and scaled omnichannel leasing platform.

儘管環境難以預測，但我們相信，憑藉我們的多產品生態系統、嚴謹的產品組合表現和規模化的全通路租賃平台，我們有能力繼續獲得市場份額並推動可持續的獲利成長。

Our ability to consistently execute through volatility is a competitive strength and a driver of long-term shareholder value. Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. We are reinvesting in high-impact growth initiatives, exploring strategic M&A opportunities, and returning excess capital to shareholders through a balanced approach of dividends and share repurchases. Our businesses generate meaningful free cash flow, providing us with the flexibility to meet our priorities.

我們在波動中持續執行的能力是一種競爭優勢，也是長期股東價值的驅動力。我們的資本配置重點維持不變。我們正在對高影響力的成長計畫進行再投資，探索策略性併購機會，並透過股利和股票回購的平衡方式將多餘的資本回饋給股東。我們的業務產生了有意義的自由現金流，為我們提供滿足優先事項的靈活性。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brian for a deeper look at our Q2 results and updated 2025 outlook.

接下來，我將把主題交給 Brian，讓他深入了解我們的第二季業績和最新的 2025 年展望。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Our second-quarter performance highlights the strength of our business and the growing impact of our ecosystem strategy, particularly in a challenging operating environment marked by macro volatility.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早安。我們第二季的業績凸顯了我們業務的實力和生態系統策略日益增強的影響力，尤其是在宏觀波動性較大的嚴峻經營環境中。

I'm pleased to report that consolidated revenue and earnings exceeded the high end of our outlook with non-GAAP EPS coming in at $1.02 per share. This outperformance was driven by strong execution across the organization. Our Progressive Leasing team effectively managed the lease portfolio and delivered a result meaningfully better than expectations.

我很高興地報告，合併收入和收益超過了我們預期的高端，非 GAAP 每股收益達到 1.02 美元。這一優異表現得益於整個組織的強勁執行力。我們的 Progressive Leasing 團隊有效地管理了租賃組合，並取得了遠超預期的成果。

At the same time, our Four Technologies team delivered another quarter of profitable triple-digit growth. Together, these results reflect the power of our diversified platform and our ability to execute across multiple business models, while investing in sustainable long-term growth.

同時，我們的四大技術團隊又實現了一個季度的三位數獲利成長。總的來說，這些業績反映了我們多元化平台的實力以及我們跨多種商業模式執行的能力，同時投資於可持續的長期成長。

Let me begin with an overview of the Progressive Leasing segment's performance in the second quarter. GMV came in at $413.9 million, which is down 8.9% year over year, largely due to two primary factors. The previously disclosed Big Lots bankruptcy and our intentional tightening of approval rates to manage portfolio performance underscored by ongoing soft consumer demand in our key leasable categories.

首先，我來概述 Progressive Leasing 部門第二季的業績。GMV 為 4.139 億美元，年減 8.9%，主要原因有兩個。先前揭露的 Big Lots 破產和我們有意收緊批准率以管理投資組合業績，突顯了我們主要可租賃類別的持續疲軟的消費者需求。

When adjusting for the impact of Big Lots, GMV was up approximately 1%. In addition, the tightening efforts deployed late last year, and in Q1 of 2025, further impacted the growth rate by an estimated 800 and 900 basis points.

當調整 Big Lots 的影響後，GMV 上漲了約 1%。此外，去年年底和2025年第一季實施的緊縮措施進一步影響了成長率，預計影響幅度為800至900個基點。

We expect the approval rate comparison to begin easing in Q3 of 2025 and will completely lap those tightening actions in Q1 of 2026. Importantly, PROG marketplace, our direct-to-consumer channel remains a meaningful contributor to growth, with Q2 GMV up 38% year over year. As we look ahead, we are focused on improving conversion within the marketplace funnel by enhancing the consumer experience, from browse to application and checkout, ensuring we are capitalizing on this demand with greater efficiency and customer satisfaction.

我們預計支持率對比將在 2025 年第三季開始放鬆，並將在 2026 年第一季完全超越這些緊縮措施。重要的是，PROG 市場，我們的直接面向消費者的管道仍然是成長的重要貢獻者，第二季 GMV 年比成長 38%。展望未來，我們將專注於透過增強消費者體驗（從瀏覽到應用程式和結帳）來提高市場管道內的轉換率，確保我們以更高的效率和客戶滿意度來滿足這一需求。

Additionally, we continue to evaluate and improve the customer experience across all of our platforms, with a focus on serving the evolving expectations of our core demographics. Millennials and Gen Z now account for approximately 70% of our GMV.

此外，我們將持續評估和改善所有平台的客戶體驗，並專注於滿足核心客戶不斷變化的期望。千禧世代和 Z 世代目前占我們 GMV 的約 70%。

Many of these customers begin their lease journey in-store and then could transition online, through either the retailer site or internal platform, such as PROG Marketplace, underscoring the importance of a seamless omnichannel experience.

許多客戶都在店內開始租賃，然後透過零售商網站或內部平台（如 PROG Marketplace）轉移到線上，這凸顯了無縫全通路體驗的重要性。

Q2 revenue for Progressive Leasing was close to flat to $569.7 million, compared to $570.5 million in the prior year. Revenue benefited from a slightly higher customer utilization of 90-day purchase options. These tailwinds, however, were offset by marginally lower pain performance, primarily tied to leases funded before the tightening actions we took in late 2024 and early 2025. Looking ahead, we expect payment performance to improve year over year in the second half as those pre-tightening vintages roll off and higher quality leases comprise a greater portion of the portfolio.

Progressive Leasing 第二季營收幾乎持平，為 5.697 億美元，而去年同期為 5.705 億美元。收入受益於客戶對 90 天購買選項的利用率略有提高。然而，這些順風因素被略低的痛苦表現所抵消，這主要與我們在 2024 年底和 2025 年初採取的緊縮措施之前資助的租賃有關。展望未來，我們預計下半年付款表現將同比改善，因為緊縮前的租賃期結束，而且更高品質的租賃在投資組合中所佔的比例更大。

Portfolio performance was strong with Q2 write-offs at 7.5%. 20 basis points better than Q2 of 2024 is slightly better than our internal expectations. This performance reflects the effectiveness of our dynamic decisioning models and the deliberate tightening actions.

投資組合表現強勁，第二季的沖銷率為 7.5%。比 2024 年第二季高出 20 個基點，略優於我們的內部預期。這一表現反映了我們的動態決策模型和深思熟慮的緊縮措施的有效性。

Progressive Leasing's gross margin for the quarter was 32.4%, in line with our expectations and down just 15 basis points year over year, primarily driven by increased customer utilization of 90-day purchase option, along with a loss of Big Lots, which had a below average number of customers utilizing the 90-day purchase option and above average gross margin. The overall estimated impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy to Progressive Leasing's gross margin is approximately 20 to 30 basis points in the period.

Progressive Leasing 本季的毛利率為 32.4%，符合我們的預期，年比僅下降 15 個基點，主要原因是客戶對 90 天購買選項的利用率增加，以及 Big Lots 的損失，Big Lots 使用 90 天購買選項的客戶數量低於平均水平，但毛利率高於平均水平。預計 Big Lots 破產對 Progressive Leasing 在此期間的毛利率的總體影響約為 20 至 30 個基點。

Progressive Leasing's SG&A expenses were $78.9 million, or 13.8% of revenue, up from 13% in Q2 of 2024. As previously communicated, this expected deleverage reflects active investments in technology and sales enablement, partially offset by disciplined cost management. We remained focused on cost efficiencies, while prioritizing investments that we expect to provide a high return.

Progressive Leasing 的銷售、一般及行政費用為 7,890 萬美元，佔營收的 13.8%，高於 2024 年第二季的 13%。如前所述，預期的去槓桿反映了對技術和銷售支援的積極投資，但嚴格的成本管理部分抵消了這種影響。我們仍然注重成本效益，同時優先考慮我們預期會帶來高回報的投資。

Adjusted EBITDA for Progressive Leasing was within our 11% to 13% annual target at $69.7 million, or 12.2% of revenue compared to $73.8 million, or 12.9% of revenue in Q2 of 2024. In terms of consolidated results, Q2 revenues grew 2.1% to $604.7 million, from $592.2 million in Q2 of 2024, primarily driven by over 200% revenue growth at Four Technologies. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $73.5 million compared to $72.3 million in Q2 of 2024, reflecting materially improved profitability of Four, slightly offset by progressive leasing margin pressures.

Progressive Leasing 的調整後 EBITDA 達到我們 11% 至 13% 的年度目標，為 6,970 萬美元，佔營收的 12.2%，而 2024 年第二季為 7,380 萬美元，佔營收的 12.9%。就綜合業績而言，第二季營收從 2024 年第二季的 5.922 億美元成長 2.1% 至 6.047 億美元，主要得益於 Four Technologies 營收成長超過 200%。合併調整後 EBITDA 為 7,350 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 7,230 萬美元，反映出 Four 的獲利能力大幅提高，但略微被漸進式租賃利潤率壓力所抵銷。

Non-GAAP EPS was $1.02, exceeding the high end of our outlook supported by strong earnings and a lower share count from our repurchase program. Turning to the balance sheet. We ended Q2 with $222 million in cash and $600 million in gross debt, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.38 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. We are undrawn on our $350 million revolver. I also want to highlight a legislative development that we will positively impact our cash tax outlook.

非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.02 美元，超過了我們預期的高端，這得益於強勁的盈利和回購計劃帶來的較低股份數量。轉向資產負債表。我們在第二季結束時擁有 2.22 億美元現金和 6 億美元的總債務，導致淨槓桿率為過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 1.38 倍。我們尚未動用 3.5 億美元的循環信貸。我還想強調一項立法發展，這將對我們的現金稅收前景產生積極影響。

The Big Beautiful Bill, which makes permanent several key provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, most notably 100% bonus depreciation on qualified property. We expect this change to significantly reduce future cash taxes by allowing immediate expensing of lease merchandise for tax purposes.

《美麗大法案》使《減稅與就業法案》的幾項關鍵條款永久生效，其中最引人注目的是合格財產的 100% 獎金折舊。我們預計，這項變更將允許立即將租賃商品作為稅收費用，從而大幅降低未來的現金稅。

In Q2, we continue to return meaningful capital to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. We paid a quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share and repurchased approximately 900,000 shares of our common stock at a weighted average price of $28.51 per share, reflecting our ongoing commitment to a balanced capital return strategy. As of quarter end, we had $309.6 million remaining authorized under our $500 million share repurchase program, providing ample flexibility to deliver shareholder value.

在第二季度，我們繼續透過股利和股票回購向股東返還可觀的資本。我們支付了每股 0.13 美元的季度股息，並以每股 28.51 美元的加權平均價格回購了約 900,000 股普通股，這反映了我們對平衡資本回報策略的持續承諾。截至本季末，我們 5 億美元股票回購計畫下剩餘授權金額為 3.096 億美元，為實現股東價值提供了充足的彈性。

To recap some of the key highlights from the first half of the year includes strong portfolio performance, impactful marketing initiatives driven by enhanced SEO and personalization, progress on technology enhancements, improving customer experiences and meaningful traction on our ecosystem strategy with a profitable growth at Four.

回顧上半年的一些主要亮點，包括強勁的投資組合表現、由增強的 SEO 和個性化推動的有影響力的營銷舉措、技術改進的進展、改善的客戶體驗以及我們的生態系統戰略的有意義的牽引力，Four 實現了盈利增長。

We are anchored in the strength and stability of our lease portfolio, which we believe will remain on solid footing. Our disciplined operating model, combined with the flexibility of our multiproduct platform positions us to deliver sustainable, profitable GMV, while creating long-term value for customers, partners and shareholders.

我們堅信租賃組合的實力和穩定性將保持穩固。我們嚴謹的營運模式，加上多產品平台的靈活性，使我們能夠提供可持續的、有利可圖的 GMV，同時為客戶、合作夥伴和股東創造長期價值。

For our 2025 consolidated outlook, we are raising the midpoint of the range for revenues and earnings. Consolidated revenues in the range of $2.45 billion to $2.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $255 million to $265 million, and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $3.20 to $3.35.

對於我們的 2025 年綜合展望，我們正在提高收入和收益範圍的中點。合併營收在 24.5 億美元至 25 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 2.55 億美元至 2.65 億美元之間，非 GAAP EPS 在 3.20 美元至 3.35 美元之間。

This outlook assumes a difficult operating environment with soft demand for consumer durable goods, no material changes in the company's current decisioning posture, and effective tax rate for non-GAAP EPS of approximately 27%, and no impact from additional share repurchases.

這項展望假設經營環境艱難，耐用消費品需求疲軟，公司當前的決策態勢沒有重大變化，非公認會計準則每股收益的有效稅率約為 27%，且不會受到額外股票回購的影響。

We are focused on driving profitable growth, maintaining portfolio health and returning capital to shareholders, while continuing to invest in initiatives that position us for long-term value creation. Our strategy is clear, operate with discipline, prioritize high-impact opportunities and build value deliberately over time.

我們專注於推動獲利成長、維持投資組合健康並向股東返還資本，同時繼續投資於能夠創造長期價值的計劃。我們的策略清晰，運作規範，優先考慮高影響力的機會，並隨著時間的推移有意識地創造價值。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給接線生以回答問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Kyle Joseph, Stephens.

（操作員指示）凱爾·約瑟夫，史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just kind of want to get to the kind of underlying growth, recognizing there's a lot of moving parts right now, and I appreciate the color you provided on Big Lots in the appendix of your slides.

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是想了解潛在的成長，並認識到現在有很多活動部件，我很欣賞您在幻燈片附錄中為 Big Lots 提供的顏色。

But I calculate kind of ex Big Lots GMV being flattish. And then I think you talked about kind of some incremental headwinds from underwriting. So kind of ex those two headwinds, do you think about the business as kind of like mid high single-digit growth right now? And then kind of remind us exactly when we lap both the underwriting and the Big Lots comps?

但我計算出 Big Lots 的 GMV 是比較平穩的。然後我想您談到了承保方面的一些漸進式阻力。那麼，除去這兩個不利因素，您是否認為目前的業務能夠實現中高個位數成長？然後，當我們同時承保和 Big Lots 補償時，能否準確提醒我們？

Yeah. Thanks, Kyle. I mean you got it. I think we said in the prepared remarks that ex Big Lots, GMV would have been plus 1% for the quarter. And then the new data point that we gave was related to the decisioning tightening.

是的。謝謝，凱爾。我的意思是你明白了。我想我們在準備好的評論中說過，除 Big Lots 外，本季的 GMV 將成長 1%。然後，我們提供的新數據點與決策緊縮有關。

And historically, we've talked about that in terms of year-over-year approval rates, but there's a lot of stuff that goes into approval rates. So we changed our approach this quarter and actually represented as drag on GMV, and that was another kind of 800 to 900 basis points.

從歷史上看，我們討論的是同比支持率，但影響支持率的因素很多。因此，我們在本季度改變了方法，實際上將其表現為對 GMV 的拖累，這又是 800 到 900 個基點。

So yeah, you would -- besides those two events, if you will, you would get to kind of a high singles to basically 10% GMV growth rate. Obviously, we can't ex those out in the real world. So those are challenges that we're working on, but that is the pro forma kind of trajectory of the business.

是的，除了這兩個活動之外，如果你願意的話，你還可以獲得基本上 10% 的 GMV 成長率。顯然，我們無法在現實世界中排除這些。這些都是我們正在努力應對的挑戰，但這也是業務發展的形式軌跡。

Big Lots from a GMV standpoint is largely lapped in Q4 of this year. We did have about $7 million of GMV in Q1 of '25 because of going out of business sales and various closing dates that were different for different stores.

從 GMV 角度來看，Big Lots 在今年第四季的表現基本上被超越。由於停業銷售和不同商店的關閉日期不同，我們在 2025 年第一季的 GMV 確實約為 700 萬美元。

On the decisioning, we talked a lot over the last year about the various tightening actions. We took some in the back half of 2024, and as Brian said in his remarks, those will start to lap here as we enter the back half '25. But the lion's share of the decisioning was really in kind of the first half of Q1 of this year.

在決策方面，我們去年就各種緊縮措施進行了大量討論。我們在 2024 年下半年採取了一些措施，正如 Brian 在演講中所說，當我們進入 2025 年下半年時，這些措施將開始在這裡重疊。但大部分決策其實是在今年第一季上半年做出的。

So we still got a little bit to go to lapse the majority of the tightening. I would say that portfolio is in a great spot. We're -- I'm very pleased with the results of the decision science teams in their -- continue to demonstrate their ability to control a large portfolio with precision. But that also allows us the opportunity to look for pockets of opportunity to approve more. But I want to be careful to not set expectations too high.

因此，我們還需要一段時間才能結束大部分的緊縮政策。我想說這個投資組合處於一個很好的位置。我們——我對決策科學團隊的成果感到非常滿意——他們繼續展現出精確控制大型投資組合的能力。但這也使我們有機會尋找機會來批准更多。但我要小心，不要將期望定得太高。

We're talking about small pockets of opportunity versus some of the more larger tightening actions that we took earlier. So we'll continue to look for those pockets of opportunity and hope that it can be an incremental positive for GMV in the next -- in the coming quarters. So that's kind of how it went out. We've also got a lot of marketing and initiative things that we're working jointly with our retail partners on in the back half. And so we're not just standing still.

我們談論的是小規模的機會，而不是我們之前採取的一些更大規模的緊縮措施。因此，我們將繼續尋找這些機會，並希望它能夠在接下來的幾季中為 GMV 帶來增量正面影響。事情就是這樣的。下半年我們也將與零售合作夥伴共同進行許多行銷和創新工作。所以我們不會停滯不前。

We're trying to drive this business, but we do have these two headwinds with Big Lots and the decisioning posture. Nice eagle eyes on the additional slide in the appendix, and I'll let Brian provide a little bit of an explanation to that slide and some additional color.

我們正在努力推動這項業務，但在 Big Lots 和決策方面我們確實面臨著兩大阻力。附錄中的附加幻燈片看起來很漂亮，我會讓 Brian 對幻燈片提供一些解釋和一些額外的顏色。

Yeah. No, Kyle, and thanks for pointing that out. The intent there is, as Steve mentioned, showing first GMV and how that's going to represent a difficult compare for the remainder of the year and into Q1. And also attempting to size up the direct portfolio impacts. I think gross margins and write-offs and what pressure we're going to continue to fill there.

是的。不，凱爾，謝謝你指出這一點。正如史蒂夫所提到的那樣，其目的是展示第一個 GMV，以及它將如何代表今年剩餘時間和第一季的艱難比較。並試圖評估直接的投資組合影響。我認為毛利率和註銷以及我們將繼續填補的壓力。

As we've talked about Big Lots previously, one of the things that present itself is the fact that they had a better performing customer than our average customer. And so that's a dynamic that is working its way through margins and will continue to throughout the comparison period.

正如我們之前談到 Big Lots 時所言，他們的客戶表現比我們的平均客戶更好。因此，這是一種透過利潤率發揮作用的動態，並將在整個比較期內持續下去。

And so we highlighted that. The only other thing I'd offer is that's a sizing of the portfolio impact, not necessarily the SG&A, or the direct SG&A costs that are tied to Big Lots as there's a lot of assumptions there. And we've not attempted to size that or provide color on it within that slide, but just be cognizant of that is, that would be additive to the impact that is shown there. So hopefully, it's helpful, and we'll continue to reference it throughout the year and try to give some color on the actual performance relative to kind of maybe a SAM's Big Lots view.

因此我們強調了這一點。我唯一能提供的另一件事是，這是對投資組合影響的評估，不一定是銷售、一般和行政費用，或與 Big Lots 相關的直接銷售、一般和行政費用，因為那裡有很多假設。我們沒有嘗試在幻燈片中對其大小或顏色進行調整，但請注意，這會增加所顯示的影響。所以希望它是有幫助的，我們將在全年繼續參考它，並嘗試根據 SAM 的 Big Lots 觀點對實際表現給出一些說明。

Got it, got it. Really helpful. And then just one follow-up for me. I'm going to ask a pipeline question. Obviously, you can only say what you can say, but just where we stand now, kind of -- I mean, obviously, there's still some uncertainty around tariffs, but kind of through the bankruptcies we saw at the end of last year in Furniture and whatnot. But just give us a sense for your conversations with retailers and their willingness to consider adding the leasing product to their finance options?

明白了，明白了。真的很有幫助。然後我只需要跟進一次。我要問一個管道問題。顯然，你只能說你能說的話，但就我們目前的立場而言，有點——我的意思是，顯然，關稅方面仍然存在一些不確定性，但有點像我們在去年年底看到的家具行業破產事件。但請讓我們了解一下您與零售商的對話以及他們是否願意考慮將租賃產品添加到他們的融資選擇中？

Yeah. As you said, we can only say what we can say, and I've learned over the years not to commit to certain logos because they -- always wrong from a timing standpoint. But we have seen more engagement, I would say, even to the extent of some RFIs, or even RFPs, with some logos that have not traditionally been leaning into that.

是的。正如你所說，我們只能說我們能說的話，多年來我已經學會不要對某些標誌做出承諾，因為從時機的角度來看它們總是錯的。但我想說，我們已經看到了更多的參與，甚至達到了一些 RFI 或 RFP 的程度，而一些標誌傳統上並不傾向於此。

So that's positive. We continue to believe that we are kind of the obvious choice, especially for the enterprise size retail partners. So nothing to report on that, but it is certainly a main focus of ours, and we're pleased with where the pipeline is and the progression.

這是積極的。我們仍然相信我們是顯而易見的選擇，特別是對於企業規模的零售合作夥伴。因此，對此沒有什麼可報告的，但這肯定是我們的重點，我們對管道的現狀和進展感到滿意。

Got it .Thanks a lot for taking my questions.

知道了非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. Bobby Griffin, Raymond James.

謝謝。鮑比·格里芬、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions this morning.

嘿夥計們，感謝你們今天早上回答我的問題。

Thanks Bobby --

謝謝鮑比--

I guess, first for me, I wanted to maybe go back on just the core underlying progressive GMV and ask it a little bit different way. But if I give you credit for the Big Lots add-backs, which their bankruptcy was out of your control, it still looks like you factor in the prior year comparisons in 1Q versus 2Q. '

我想，首先對我來說，我可能想回到漸進式 GMV 的核心底層，並以稍微不同的方式來詢問它。但是，如果我對 Big Lots 的加回給予讚揚，而他們的破產不在您的控制範圍內，那麼您在第一季度和第二季度中仍然會考慮去年同期的比較。'

The core business, even with the decision tightening is accelerating. I guess the math I'm looking at is like 1Q ex Big Lots is up three or four in GMV, 2Q is up one, but the prior year comparison was roughly 800 basis points harder. So, one, do you disagree with that type of analysis on it? And two, if that's the case, what's driving that? Is that better trade down, market share gains, kind of anything there to unpack that?

即使決策收緊，核心業務仍在加速發展。我猜我正在看的數學計算結果是，第一季（不包括 Big Lots）的 GMV 上漲了三到四個基點，第二季度上漲了一個基點，但與去年同期相比上漲了大約 800 個基點。那麼，第一，您是否不同意這種分析？第二，如果事實確實如此，那麼是什麼原因導致的呢？這是否意味著更好的交易、市場份額的增加，或者有什麼可以解釋的呢？

Yes. It's interesting. You're right. Last year, in '24, we did start to see the acceleration in Q2 and Q3, and that was we believe, largely driven by the trade down. It does not appear to us that the trade down is much of a factor this year.

是的。這很有趣。你說得對。去年，也就是 24 年，我們確實開始看到第二季和第三季的加速，我們認為這主要是受貿易下滑的推動。我們認為，今年貿易下滑並不是個很大的因素。

I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I don't think that the primes have loosened necessarily. But as far as we've lapped it fully, we believe, and from the data we're seeing in the top of the funnel, we're not -- it's certainly not intensifying.

我並不是說它不存在。我不認為素數一定會放鬆。但就我們目前所採取的措施而言，我們相信，從我們在漏斗頂部看到的數據來看，情況並沒有加劇。

And so from a year-over-year standpoint, it's probably flat to slightly negative because there is some change in our thin file no file and some potential impact from immigration actions that are affecting the top of the funnel. So I wouldn't think -- I wouldn't call it trade down.

因此，從同比的角度來看，它可能是持平或略微為負的，因為我們的薄文件無文件有一些變化，並且移民行動可能會對漏斗頂部產生一些潛在影響。所以我不認為——我不會稱之為貿易下降。

We do continue to have discrete wins, I would say, with existing retail partners. And we've talked about that for several -- multiple quarters now, even in a couple of years, and they do continue to get deployed, and work jointly with our retail partners and are having success. In fact, we called out the fact that e-comm was at an all-time high.

我想說，我們確實繼續與現有的零售合作夥伴取得一些獨立的勝利。我們已經討論了好幾個季度，甚至幾年了，他們確實在繼續部署，與我們的零售合作夥伴共同努力，並取得了成功。事實上，我們指出電子商務正處於歷史最高水準。

And you wouldn't expect Q2 to be an all-time high for e-com before that, the two best quarters from a composition standpoint were both Q4s, and that's more intuitive. But that is because of a particular initiative that we got across the goal line with a fairly long-term partner, and it allowed us to get productivity and gain balance of share and really drive a nice comp with that partner, well north of their business trends.

在此之前，你不會指望第二季度會成為電子商務的歷史最高水平，從構成角度來看，最好的兩個季度都是第四季度，這是更直觀的。但這是因為我們採取了一項特別舉措，與一個相當長期的合作夥伴一起跨越了目標線，這讓我們提高了生產力，獲得了份額平衡，並真正與該合作夥伴形成了良好的競爭關係，遠遠超過了他們的業務趨勢。

So those are the things. I mean, we clearly are ramping ASI, our great partner that we launched last year, and we're continuing to try and to add to the merchant partner list and the roster. There's certainly some challenges here, and we don't love the minus 8.9% but we're doing everything we can to fight against the comps with Big Lots, and the necessary tightening actions that we took, and we feel good where the business is positioned and can dig out of this negative GMV over time.

事情就是這樣。我的意思是，我們顯然正在加強 ASI，這是我們去年推出的優秀合作夥伴，並且我們正在繼續嘗試將其添加到商家合作夥伴名單和名冊中。這裡肯定存在一些挑戰，我們不喜歡-8.9%的銷售額，但我們正在盡一切努力與Big Lots競爭，並採取必要的緊縮措施，我們對業務定位感到滿意，並且可以隨著時間的推移擺脫這種負面的GMV。

Understood. That's helpful. And I guess Brian, my second question is just kind of on the guidance, the update. Maybe you guys beat 2Q, it looks like the midpoint went up a little slightly less than the 2Q beat. And I appreciate just the environment and the fact that having some conservatism in there.

明白了。這很有幫助。我想布萊恩，我的第二個問題只是關於指導和更新。也許你們擊敗了第二季度，看起來中點的漲幅比第二季度略低一些。我很欣賞那裡的環境和保守主義。

But what took place in 2Q that isn't really assumed to continue that you would say was upside in the quarter that you guys didn't assume to go forward, to kind of just have the guide move up with the 2Q beat versus actually moving up more?

但是，第二季度發生了什麼事情，實際上並沒有假設會繼續下去，您會說這是本季度的上行趨勢，而您並沒有假設它會繼續下去，只是讓指導價隨著第二季度的增長而上漲，而不是實際上上漲更多？

Yeah. I appreciate the question, Bobby, you just quite answered that, just given some color on what I think are some margin dynamics in the back half that I think will present themselves a little bit more than what they did there in Q2.

是的。我很感謝這個問題，Bobby，你剛剛回答了這個問題，只是給了一些我認為下半年利潤動態的細節，我認為這些動態會比第二季度表現得更明顯一些。

And I think, starting with the positive, and what I think will be a bit of a tailwind in the back half. The write-off picture, as Steve mentioned, is on track, and we're encouraged by what we're seeing there. We actually ended up lower write-offs here in Q2 than we anticipated as we reported out in April.

我認為，從積極的方面開始，我認為下半年會出現一些順風。正如史蒂夫所提到的，註銷情況正在按計劃進行，我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞。實際上，我們第二季的註銷額低於我們四月報告的預期。

And so that's a very favorable dynamic that we expect based upon everything that we're seeing to continue to work through the back half of the year. And so write-offs, and then portfolio performance overall, I think, are a tailwind. The headwinds, which I think a bit more than offset that and why you're seeing the margin that you are in the back half. I mean, in order of magnitude, I think I'll just start at the top. The Big Lots piece is meaningful.

因此，根據我們所看到的一切，我們預計這是一個非常有利的動態，而這種動態將在今年下半年繼續發揮作用。因此，我認為註銷以及整體投資組合表現都是順風。我認為逆風稍微抵消了這一點，這也是為什麼你會看到你處於後半部分的差距。我的意思是，按照數量級，我想我會從頂部開始。Big Lots 的作品意義重大。

And while we've talked a lot about the GMV comparison, one thing I don't want to have get lost is the fact that -- yeah, we turned off the GMV faucet for Big Lots a couple of quarters ago, but what has remained and what has continued to present itself on the P&L for the first half is those customers that were originated, and we continue to service and their performance continues to flow through in the first half.

雖然我們已經討論了很多關於 GMV 比較的問題，但有一件事我不想被忽視，那就是——是的，我們在幾個季度前關閉了 Big Lots 的 GMV 水龍頭，但剩下的、上半年損益表中繼續呈現的是那些原始客戶，我們繼續為他們提供服務，他們的業績在上半年繼續顯現。

And so we benefited from the revenue and EBITDA, and those favorable margin profiles for the front half, even though Big Lots has not been generating GMV meaningfully this year. And so that's something that won't be there to the same degree in the back half. So that's going to start working its way out. The second thing I'd point out is portfolio size. So we entered this quarter with the portfolio just slightly up.

因此，儘管 Big Lots 今年的 GMV 並未顯著增長，但我們仍受益於上半年的營收、EBITDA 和良好的利潤率。所以，在後半段，這種情況不會再發生。所以這將開始發揮作用。我要指出的第二件事是投資組合規模。因此，我們進入本季時投資組合略有上升。

And we ended the quarter down 3% on gross leased assets. And so part of that is a seasonal dynamic as you work your way through. But there's no doubt the higher 90-day buyouts, and just the GMV calendars overall have put some pressure on the portfolio size. And so as you -- as that's your starting point for the back half, you're going to see a feed through into the revenue numbers that are implied in the -- not applied, but explicitly provided there in the guidance. So that's the -- I think the second item I'd point out.

本季末，我們的租賃資產總額下降了 3%。因此，其中一部分是隨著你的工作進展而產生的季節性動態。但毫無疑問，90 天收購率的提高以及整體 GMV 日曆給投資組合規模帶來了一些壓力。因此，當您 — — 因為這是下半年的起點時，您將看到收入數字的回饋，這些數字是隱含的 — — 不是應用的，而是在指南中明確提供的。這就是──我想指出的第二點。

And then finally, on a consolidated basis, and this is, quite frankly, a welcome dynamic, even though it's a margin headwind, particularly in Q4, is the fact that we're seeing so much momentum with Four. And Four, unlike the leasing business, has a requirement around CECL, and CECL accounting, and it brings forward in a more meaningful way the requirement to reserve upfront for these loans.

最後，從合併的角度來看，坦白說，這是一個受歡迎的動態，儘管這對利潤率是一個阻力，特別是在第四季度，但事實上我們看到了 Four 的巨大發展勢頭。與租賃業務不同，Four 對 CECL 和 CECL 會計有要求，並以更有意義的方式提出了為這些貸款預先準備金的要求。

And we're going to experience that in Q4, and that will put some pressure on the margin profile of the business on a consolidated basis. But that's something quickly -- given the very short duration of those instruments. That will flip back pretty quickly.

我們將在第四季度經歷這種情況，這將對合併後的業務利潤率狀況帶來一些壓力。但這是很快的事情——因為這些儀器的使用壽命非常短。很快它就會恢復原狀。

And so we'll take that. We love to see those -- that GMV momentum of Four, and we'll have that kind of flow through into margins towards the end of the year. So I think in a nutshell, there's a lot to unpack. I know I've said a lot there, but lower margins in the back half. It's Big Lots. It's the portfolio size and the deleveraging of SG&A that, that represents to a degree, and then the Four CECL dynamic that are incorporated into this guide.

所以我們會接受這一點。我們很高興看到 GMV 達到 4 的勢頭，到今年年底，這種勢頭將轉化為利潤。所以我認為簡而言之，有很多事情需要解決。我知道我已經說了很多，但是後半部的利潤率較低。這是大批量。投資組合規模和 SG&A 的去槓桿化在一定程度上體現了這一點，然後本指南中納入了四個 CECL 動態。

Understood. That's helpful. I appreciate the details, and I'll add my thanks to you and John for the additional slide on Big Lots. Very helpful. Best of luck here guys finishing up the back half of the year.

明白了。這很有幫助。我很欣賞這些細節，並向您和約翰表示感謝，感謝他們提供有關 Big Lots 的附加幻燈片。非常有幫助。祝大家下半年一切順利。

Thanks, Bobby.

謝謝，鮑比。

Thank you. Brad Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

謝謝。KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Brad Thomas。

Hi, good morning. Steve, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a category and channel perspective? And then perhaps if you could talk about efforts and initiatives to grow with a smaller and more medium-sized business, rather than just the enterprise? Thanks.

嗨，早安。史蒂夫，我想知道您是否可以從類別和頻道的角度談談您所看到的情況？那麼，您是否可以談談與中小型企業（而不僅僅是企業）共同成長的努力和舉措？謝謝。

Sure. Yeah, our GMV is probably more -- well, it is more impacted by these specific initiatives at a retailer, or merchant level, at a partner level than it is necessarily at a category level. Clearly, there's still weakness in the ones that you guys -- you specifically write about a lot with mattress and furniture and large appliances. The replacement cycle has not kicked in there yet.

當然。是的，我們的 GMV 可能更大——嗯，它受到零售商、商家、合作夥伴層面的這些具體舉措的影響，而不是類別層面的影響。顯然，你們在床墊、家具和大型家電方面寫了很多文章，但這些方面仍然存在弱點。更換週期尚未開始。

But we can see variations and outperformance within a particular retailer. Looking back to the comment I had on an earlier question about that specific retailer, and how just kind of an initiative getting over the goal line can drive strength there.

但我們可以看到特定零售商內部的差異和優異表現。回顧我之前對那個特定零售商提出的問題的評論，以及如何透過一種超越目標線的舉措來增強那裡的實力。

So we're certainly impacted by the underlying demand for the categories, which is undeniably soft in most categories. But the results that we deliver are a lot of times more impactful and the gains of balance of sale are results of the things that we work on jointly with our retail partners. So that's a good data point that kind of can allow us to not be a victim to the comp.

因此，我們肯定會受到類別潛在需求的影響，不可否認的是，大多數類別的潛在需求都很疲軟。但我們提供的成果往往更具影響力，銷售平衡的收益是我們與零售合作夥伴共同努力的成果。所以這是一個很好的數據點，可以讓我們避免成為競爭對手的受害者。

But -- on the regions versus the enterprise, we've talked a lot about the regions. The regions are very aggressive. There are a lot of churn, a lot of players out there, but it's a big business that we're going after. It's been -- it's a tough segment. We've got a great team.

但是——關於地區與企業，我們已經討論了許多有關地區的問題。這些地區非常具有攻擊性。雖然有很多客戶流失，也有很多參與者，但這是我們追求的大生意。這是一個艱難的時期。我們擁有一支出色的團隊。

And we're picking our spots there of where we're going to concentrate and what retailers appreciate the unique set of assets that we bring to the partnership. We are giving our sales team more tools than they've ever had to go to market and to win, and we expect to compete hard there. We're not going to compete on every front, but we'll pick our spots, and we believe that we'll have success. So hopefully, a more positive trajectory to come in the regions.

我們正在選擇我們要集中精力的地方，以及零售商欣賞我們為合作夥伴帶來的獨特資產的地方。我們為銷售團隊提供了比以往更多的工具，幫助他們進入市場並贏得勝利，我們期望在那裡展開激烈的競爭。我們不會在各方面都參與競爭，但我們會選擇自己的位置，我們相信我們會成功。因此希望各地區未來能夠出現更積極的發展軌跡。

That's helpful, Steve. And if I could ask a question about the outlook for Four. I'd be interested in, for one, sort of how, if at all, you're leveraging the customer database you have of progressive customers? Are you using them to help advertise to help support the growth rate?

這很有幫助，史蒂夫。我可以問一個關於 Four 前景的問題嗎？我感興趣的是，首先，您如何利用現有進步客戶的客戶資料庫？您是否利用它們來幫助做廣告，以幫助支持成長率？

And then as you see incremental customers taking on the BNPL transactions. How do they compare to the rent-to-own customers? And does it give you any more insights into what kind of risk, or lack of risk, the growth of the BNPL category may be for rent-to-own? Thanks.

然後，您將看到越來越多的客戶接受 BNPL 交易。他們與先租後買的客戶相比如何？這是否能讓您更深入了解 BNPL 類別的成長對於先租後買而言可能存在什麼樣的風險或缺乏風險？謝謝。

Yeah. Well, I'll just start with, we're very excited about where Four is and what it's accomplishing. The growth rates are very healthy, as you can see. And from an overlap standpoint, Four serves the whole spectrum from below prime to super prime. And so as you can imagine, there is overlap with a lease-to-own customer but not a complete overlap.

是的。好吧，我首先要說的是，我們對 Four 的現狀和所取得的成就感到非常興奮。如您所見，成長率非常健康。從重疊的角度來看，Four 服務於從低於優質到超級優質的完整範圍。因此，正如您所想像的，這與租賃購買客戶有重疊，但不是完全重疊。

We do have initiatives in place for our ecosystem strategy and there are synergies going in both directions between Four and the Leasing business. Currently, I would say the synergies are more from Four to Leasing than the other way around because Four is such a robust customer acquisition channel that, and we do have internal targets and OKRs for GMV driven to the leasing business from Four and our Money App product, and we're executing well across those goals.

我們確實已經制定了生態系統策略，並且 Four 和租賃業務之間存在雙向的協同效應。目前，我認為 Four 與 Leasing 之間的協同效應大於相互之間的協同效應，因為 Four 是一個非常強大的客戶獲取管道，而且我們確實有內部目標和 OKR，用於 Four 和我們的 Money App 產品推動的租賃業務的 GMV，而且我們在實現這些目標方面做得很好。

There's a lot of good data that we can share across the organization from the affiliate products. The decision science teams at Leasing and the underwriting teams at Four are working together. And we do believe there's additional opportunities for value creation within the ecosystem back and forth across the two products.

我們可以在整個組織內共享大量來自聯盟產品的有用資料。Leasing 的決策科學團隊和 Four 的核保團隊正在共同努力。我們確實相信，在這兩種產品的生態系統中還存在著創造更多價值的機會。

Because as you know, the leasing offering is a different use case. It's a higher ticket durable goods that has an average ticket of around $1,200, higher than that in furniture, but the portfolio size is around $1,100 to $1,200, not portfolio size, but average ticket.

因為如您所知，租賃服務是一種不同的用例。它是一種高價耐用品，平均價格約為 1,200 美元，高於家具的價格，但投資組合規模約為 1,100 至 1,200 美元，不是投資組合規模，而是平均價格。

Four is more $120 average order value. And so they're not the same thing, and they don't serve the same purpose. So we believe that we can have more frequency of engagement and transactions with our customers for various use cases, but we -- and we can also learn about the profile of the consumer and hopefully have derisked originations on both sides of the ledger by having the businesses work together.

四個訂單的平均價值超過 120 美元。所以它們不是同一件事物，而且它們的用途也不相同。因此，我們相信，我們可以針對各種用例與客戶進行更頻繁的互動和交易，但我們——我們還可以了解消費者的概況，並希望透過企業合作來降低帳本兩邊的起源風險。

That's really helpful, Steve for certainly on a really nice trajectory here. Thanks again.

這真的很有幫助，史蒂夫在這裡肯定走上了一條非常好的軌跡。再次感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Hoang Nguyen, TD Cowen.

謝謝。Hoang Nguyen，TD Cowen。

Hi team, thanks for taking my questions. I guess my first one is, you guys are looking for pocket of opportunities to kind of reverse some of the tightening that you guys did throughout last year. If you have to think about it, I mean, what would it take for you guys to kind of fully unwind these measures?

大家好，感謝你們回答我的問題。我想我的第一個問題是，你們正在尋找機會來扭轉去年全年採取的一些緊縮政策。如果你必須考慮一下，我的意思是，你們需要做什麼才能完全解除這些措施？

I mean -- I think credit is getting better for you guys. But I mean, what would it take, I guess, I mean, from a macro perspective for you to confidently, I guess, come -- go back to the level that the kind of underwriting that you guys had maybe in the first half of '24? And I have a follow-up.

我的意思是──我認為你們的信譽正在變得越來越好。但我的意思是，從宏觀角度來看，你需要做什麼才能自信地回到你們在 2024 年上半年的承保水準？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Well, I mean, I think those are -- that's kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Credit is decisioning and portfolio performance is getting better because of the actions we took. So like absent those actions, we would not be in this position from a portfolio performance standpoint. And as we've said many, many times over the last 10 years, delivering the portfolio in a healthy spot and consistently is job one for us.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我認為這些——有點像是自我實現的預言。信用是決策，由於我們採取的行動，投資組合的表現正在變得更好。因此，如果沒有這些行動，從投資組合績效的角度來看，我們就不會處於這種境地。正如我們在過去 10 年中多次說過的那樣，始終如一地保持投資組合的健康是我們的首要任務。

And so we're not going to deviate from that. Having said that, we're always evaluating the data. We learn every month and every quarter, and the data science teams are the best in the business. And so they can find pockets of opportunity, but I don't want to set the expectation that we would be reverting back to where we were in the first half of '24, because based on the consumer and what we're observing in the data, that would not be the appropriate action. So it would be incremental, small adjustments that can add up to being meaningful, but not an unwind of the great work that was done to get us in the spot we're in.

因此我們不會偏離這一點。話雖如此，我們始終在評估數據。我們每個月、每季都在學習，數據科學團隊是業界最好的。因此他們可以找到機會，但我不想期望我們會回到24年上半年的水平，因為根據消費者和我們在數據中觀察到的情況，這不是適當的行動。因此，這將是漸進的、小的調整，這些調整可以累積起來變得有意義，但不會讓我們為達到目前的狀態而做出的偉大工作的失敗。

And what would have to happen for us to do that? I mean we'd have to see it in the data. We'd have to see the consumer health and the application profile and the quality of the profile change to give us the confidence in the early indicators in the portfolio to change. And I'm not saying that couldn't happen, but we won't pre-emptively make that choice before the data proved to us it's the right choice.

那我們需要做什麼才能做到這一點呢？我的意思是我們必須在數據中看到它。我們必須看到消費者健康狀況、應用程式概況和概況品質的變化，才能讓我們對投資組合中早期指標的變化充滿信心。我並不是說這不可能發生，但在數據證明這是正確選擇之前，我們不會先發制人地做出選擇。

your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Hi, can you hear me?

嗨，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we have you.

是的，我們有你。

So, yeah. I just have a follow-up. So maybe, I mean, your Four business is growing very strongly. I think you cited that 85% of the GMV is by active subscribers. So it looks like it's predominantly subscriber-only business.

是的。我只是想跟進一下。所以也許，我的意思是，您的 Four 業務正在成長非常強勁。我認為您曾提到 85% 的 GMV 來自活躍訂閱者。因此，它看起來主要是面向訂閱者的業務。

Can you talk a little bit about maybe the competitive landscape in that kind of subscription product for buy now, pay later. I mean, is a competitive space. But I mean when we think about subscription, I mean, how do you think about the competitions? Thank you.

您能否談談這種先買後付的訂閱產品的競爭格局？我的意思是，這是一個競爭空間。但是我的意思是，當我們考慮訂閱時，您如何看待競爭？謝謝。

Yeah. There's some great logos out there and great competitors. And with some small variations, the industry has kind of moved towards a similar offering with a paywall and a subscription service, and customers are fully accepting of that and adopting that.

是的。這裡有一些很棒的標誌和很棒的競爭對手。經過一些細微的變化，該行業已經轉向提供類似的付費牆和訂閱服務，客戶也完全接受並採用這種服務。

And so we're pleased with the quick and robust adoption of our Four plus subscription, the value that's being delivered to those customers, and our direct-to-consumer model. So the Four business is almost exclusively direct-to-consumer.

因此，我們對我們的 Four plus 訂閱的快速和強勁採用、為這些客戶提供的價值以及我們的直接面向消費者的模式感到高興。因此 Four 的業務幾乎完全是直接面向消費者的。

So we don't have -- we're not even really -- with some exceptions exploring, or going after integrated retail partnerships. So the traffic comes to the Four app and then gets directed to the retailer based on the customers' needs and certain of those retailers are behind the paywall. And as you said, as we said in our prepared remarks, 85% of the GMV comes from subscribers, which is a good metric for us.

因此，除了一些例外情況，我們沒有——甚至實際上沒有——探索或追求綜合零售合作夥伴關係。因此，流量會進入 Four 應用程序，然後根據客戶的需求導向零售商，而某些零售商是需要付費的。正如您所說，正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，85％的GMV來自訂閱者，這對我們來說是一個很好的指標。

And -- but there's a lot of competition out there. There's some really valuable companies out there, and we believe -- and one of the reasons that we're talking more about Four is because it's gotten to the scale where it's profitable and growing quickly and has a lot of value.

但外面競爭非常激烈。我們相信，市場上有一些非常有價值的公司——我們更多地談論 Four 的原因之一是因為它已經達到了盈利的規模，並且增長迅速，價值很高。

We believe that our offering is not being recognized from a value standpoint like some of the other pure-play BMPL providers out there. So we look forward to getting for that attention within the PROG ecosystem and continuing to grow. We've got big plans for Four.

我們認為，從價值角度來看，我們的產品尚未得到認可，就像其他一些純粹的 BMPL 提供者一樣。因此，我們期待在 PROG 生態系統中獲得關注並繼續發展。我們對 Four 有宏偉的計劃。

Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter.

非常感謝，並祝賀本季取得佳績。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Anthony Chukumba, Loop Capital Markets.

謝謝。安東尼·楚昆巴 (Anthony Chukumba)，Loop 資本市場。

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. So I heard a brief mention of ASI, American Signature. I guess my question was, how is American Signature ramping relative to your original expectations?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我聽到有人簡短提到了 ASI（American Signature）。我想我的問題是，相對於您最初的預期，American Signature 的業績成長如何？

Yeah, Hi Anthony, we're very pleased with the partnership with ASI. They've been great partners. It's been a great launch, and we continue to get better. The teams are adopting our approach and our support approach. We're based on the underlying business, we are ramping as expected.

是的，你好，安東尼，我們對與 ASI 的合作感到非常高興。他們一直是很好的合作夥伴。這是一次偉大的發布，而且我們將繼續做得更好。這些團隊正在採用我們的方法和支援方法。我們以基礎業務為基礎，按照預期不斷擴大規模。

I mean it's difficult to track against an actual dollar amount. You have to track against the actual -- the business that you're supporting. And from a balance of sales standpoint, we're we expected to be, and we have expectations that we'll continue to improve that and partner well with ASI for many years to come, but certainly for the balance of this year in the holiday.

我的意思是很難追蹤實際的美元金額。您必須根據實際情況進行追蹤—您所支持的業務。從銷售平衡的角度來看，我們預計會如此，我們期望我們將繼續改進這一點，並在未來許多年與 ASI 進行良好的合作，但肯定會在今年假期平衡中。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. One of the things that you had talked about when Big Lots went out of business was some initiatives to try to retain as many of those customers as possible. Not just in terms of like, obviously, servicing existing leases, but trying to get them to do like product marketplace, or convert them to another one of your retail partners, would just love any update in terms of those efforts? Thank you.

知道了。然後只是快速的跟進。當 Big Lots 倒閉時，您談到的事情之一就是採取一些舉措來盡可能留住客戶。顯然，這不僅僅是為現有租約提供服務，還試圖讓他們做類似的產品市場，或者將他們轉換為另一個零售合作夥伴，您是否希望在這些努力方面有任何更新？謝謝。

Yeah, you're right, Anthony. And certainly, that is an effort of ours, or an initiative of ours, not just with Big Lots, but with all of our customers to keep them in the preferred partner network of Progressive, but certainly with Big Lots because they don't have the option to go back to those stores. And so we've got marketing, nurture campaigns, and we are seeing some success.

是的，你說得對，安東尼。當然，這是我們的努力或倡議，不僅針對 Big Lots，也針對我們所有的客戶，以讓他們留在 Progressive 的首選合作夥伴網絡中，當然也針對 Big Lots，因為他們沒有選擇回到這些商店。因此，我們開展了行銷和培育活動，並取得了一些成功。

I mean some of those Big Lots customers, even if Big Lots continue to exist, would have naturally, through our normal marketing campaigns and through their normal purchasing habits, would have kind of organically shown up in Best Buy, or in one of our other partners. And so we're tracking that as well as tracking the direct response from our marketing efforts to target them with a promotional campaign, or something to get them into one of our other partners.

我的意思是，即使 Big Lots 繼續存在，其中一些客戶也會自然而然地透過我們的正常行銷活動和他們的正常購買習慣出現在百思買或我們的其他合作夥伴中。因此，我們正在追蹤這一點，同時也在追蹤我們行銷工作的直接反應，以便透過促銷活動瞄準他們，或透過其他方式讓他們加入我們的其他合作夥伴之一。

And we're pleased with the results there. It's something that we're way better at now than we would have been five or six years ago, or even three years ago. So continue to track that, and it will be an ongoing effort so that we can keep as many of those customers in the family as possible.

我們對結果非常滿意。與五、六年前，甚至三年前相比，我們現在在這方面做得更好了。因此，我們會繼續追蹤這一點，這將是一項持續的努力，以便我們能夠盡可能地留住這些客戶。

Got it. Good luck with the back half of the year.

知道了。祝下半年一切順利。

Thank you, Anthony.

謝謝你，安東尼。

Thank you. John Hecht, Jefferies.

謝謝。傑富瑞的約翰·赫克特。

Hey guys, thanks very much and congratulations on a good quarter. My question maybe is a little bit of an extension of the question about when you would loosen. And it's more like we've been waiting for this replenishment cycle.

嘿，大家好，非常感謝，並祝賀本季度取得了良好的業績。我的問題可能是關於何時放鬆的問題的延伸。這更像是我們一直在等待這個補給週期。

It feels like we're deeper into a more stable, although the -- forget the news headlines and more stable economic climate. Are you seeing any green shoots in terms of whether it's frequency of interaction with customers, or just general spend trends? Is there anything that you would lean on that would say that you're getting more optimistic that maybe the discretionary spend cycle or replenishment cycle is on the horizon?

感覺我們已經更加穩定，儘管——忘記新聞頭條和更加穩定的經濟環境。您是否看到與客戶互動頻率或整體消費趨勢的任何正面跡象？您是否可以依靠什麼來表明您對可自由支配的支出週期或補貨週期即將到來變得更加樂觀？

Yeah, John, thanks. The replacement cycle is -- has been proved to be elusive. And we don't -- we are not making a prediction that it's going to kick in, especially not for furniture and mattress and large appliances. You could make an argument that on home compute, personal computer, maybe even electronics and certainly smartphones that we're probably within it, or in it, from a replacement cycle standpoint. But we're not calling for a robust recovery in furniture and mattress and large appliance yet.

是的，約翰，謝謝。事實證明，更換週期是難以捉摸的。我們不會——我們不會預測它是否會產生影響，尤其是對家具、床墊和大型家電。您可以提出這樣的論點：從更換週期的角度來看，我們可能已經處於家用電腦、個人電腦、甚至電子產品和智慧型手機的更換週期之中。但我們目前還不認為家具、床墊和大型家電會出現強勁復甦。

We're certainly braced for it and rooting for it. It's difficult when you listen to the headlines and it depends on if you're geared to be negative or positive. You have to filter through, as you well know, for our customer because it's a tale of two tapes and our customer, no matter what the macro headlines say, it's usually a different story for our customer, and we continue to believe that our more conservative posture from a decisioning standpoint is the appropriate one.

我們當然已經做好了準備並支持它。當你聽到頭條新聞時，這很困難，這取決於你是傾向於消極還是積極。眾所周知，您必須為我們的客戶進行篩選，因為這是一個關於兩個磁帶的故事，而我們的客戶，無論宏觀頭條新聞怎麼說，對於我們的客戶來說通常都是不同的故事，我們仍然相信，從決策的角度來看，我們更為保守的姿態是合適的。

And we're always looking for green shoots, and we can have some good results from various retailers here or there and certainly adding a new retailer to the platform is always helpful. But just macro-wise, I don't think -- we're not calling for green shoots, or for a robust recovery in the near term, but we're trying to execute as well as we can, while we're waiting for that.

我們一直在尋找復甦的跡象，我們可以從這裡或那裡的各種零售商那裡獲得一些好的結果，當然，在平台上增加新的零售商總是有幫助的。但從宏觀角度來看，我認為──我們並不是呼籲復甦的萌芽，也不是在呼籲短期內強勁復甦，而是在等待復甦的同時，盡我們所能去執行。

Okay. That makes sense. And then second question more on the financial side. And it's a very, hopefully, quick question, but two quick questions. One is kind of appetite for ongoing repurchases and capital returns in your near-term leverage target. And second is on that -- the tax change, and you mentioned, the lower cash taxes. Is there any point that, that would -- is this just a timing difference? Or would that affect potentially your accrual tax rate over time?

好的。這很有道理。第二個問題比較是關於財務方面。我希望這是一個非常簡單的問題，但只有兩個簡單的問題。一是對於近期槓桿目標持續回購與資本報酬的興趣。第二點是稅改，正如您所提到的，降低現金稅。這有什麼意義嗎？這僅僅是時間差異嗎？或者這會隨著時間的推移而潛在地影響您的應計稅率？

Yeah, I'll start, and Brian can correct me for whatever I say that's wrong. We don't guide to repurchases. We do, as you said in your question, you look at it through the lens of our net leverage ratio over a 12-month period, and that's in a healthy spot now.

是的，我先開始，布萊恩可以糾正我說的任何錯誤。我們不指導回購。正如您在問題中所說，我們確實透過 12 個月內的淨槓桿率來看待這個問題，現在我們的淨槓桿率處於健康水平。

But we've been a fairly aggressive acquirer of our stock since the spin transaction and continue to believe that it doesn't reflect the true value of the underlying business. So I'll just kind of leave that there as our capital allocation priorities.

但自分拆交易以來，我們一直在積極收購我們的股票，並且仍然認為這並不能反映出基礎業務的真實價值。因此，我只是將其作為我們的資本配置優先事項。

The impact of the cash taxes from the immediate expensing is, I think, pretty impactful. This -- the one change in this bill is that it's made permanent, and we're not having to plan for a sunsetting, or reversal of it like we did in the 2017 Tax Act. And so it is a deferment. It's not an additional tax break. It is a deferment of taxes, which means that you kind of push them out into the future.

我認為，即時費用化的現金稅的影響相當大。該法案的一個變化是，它是永久性的，我們不必像 2017 年稅法那樣計劃終止或撤銷它。所以這是一次延期。這並不是一項額外的稅收減免。這是一種稅收延期，也就是說你可以把稅收推遲到未來。

But in a flat to growing GMV environment, it does get pushed out quite a way. So it is a benefit to us. But it will not impact the GAAP financials, or the GAAP income statement tax rate. It's -- we have various periods where cash taxes are higher than GAAP taxes in this -- for the next several years, I would say that they'll be lower than the GAAP tax expense.

但在 GMV 平穩成長的環境中，它確實被擠出了相當遠的距離。所以這對我們來說是有益的。但它不會影響 GAAP 財務狀況或 GAAP 損益表稅率。在不同的時期，現金稅都高於 GAAP 稅，但我認為未來幾年現金稅會低於 GAAP 稅費。

Great. Appreciate the color.

偉大的。欣賞色彩。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thank you. Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

謝謝。文森特凱恩蒂克（Vincent Caintic），BTIG。

Hi, good morning. Thanks. For taking my questions. I wanted to go back to talking about Four technologies. I mean the growth with that business seems really impressive. And by my math, it looks like Four is GMV is now one-third the size of the leasing business. And I guess if it's growing by over 100% year over year. I'm wondering if -- how big that business can be, and if it could be even bigger than the leasing business?

嗨，早安。謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。我想回過頭來談四種技術。我的意思是，該業務的成長確實令人印象深刻。根據我的計算，Four 的 GMV 目前約為租賃業務的三分之一。我想如果它的年增長率超過 100%。我想知道——這項業務能有多大，以及它是否會比租賃業務更大？

So just wondering maybe if you could talk about how -- where you think the business could go? What would sustain that level of growth? And then if you could help us with the economics now that it's -- Four is becoming a core part of the overall Progressive business. Like how should we think about revenues off of the GMV, the write-off rates and margins on that business? Thank you.

所以我只是想問一下您是否可以談談您認為業務會如何發展？什麼可以維持這樣的成長水準？然後，如果您能幫助我們解決經濟問題，現在——Four 正在成為整個 Progressive 業務的核心部分。例如，我們應該如何考慮 GMV 的收入、該業務的註銷率和利潤率？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Vincent. Yeah, we're very excited about Four. As I've said, it's in a great spot. The team has executed very well over the last several years. And we've kind of kept it quiet, while we were refining the model and working on the unit economics, and now that we're confident about the profitability profile of each individual transaction and having it scale up, and it slipped to profitability and has an opportunity for scale and margin expansion. We're certainly going to be leaning into that.

是的。謝謝，文森特。是的，我們對 Four 感到非常興奮。正如我所說，它的位置非常好。過去幾年裡，該團隊表現非常出色。我們一直在保持低調，同時不斷完善模型並致力於單位經濟效益，現在我們對每筆交易的盈利狀況充滿信心，並且交易規模不斷擴大，盈利能力有所下降，並且有機會擴大規模和利潤率。我們肯定會傾向於這樣做。

Yeah, I mean, the GMV, it's not exactly -- well, it's not apples-to-apples to compare Four GMV to leasing GMV because the ticket size is so much different and the economics are so much different on an individual transaction. But having said that, like it is a very profitable and has an opportunity to expand to margins that far exceed -- EBITDA margins that far exceed the leasing business. And so we've guided to more than doubling GMV for 2025 versus 2024.

是的，我的意思是，GMV 並不完全是——好吧，將 Four GMV 與租賃 GMV 進行比較並不是完全等同的，因為票據規模差別很大，而且單筆交易的經濟效益也有很大差異。但話雖如此，它的利潤率非常高，並且有機會擴大到遠遠超過租賃業務的利潤率——EBITDA 利潤率。因此，我們預計 2025 年的 GMV 將比 2024 年成長一倍以上。

And as a reference point, 2024 was about $300 million of GMV. We're well on our way to do that and then some in 2025. The growth rates naturally, when you get to the law of big numbers will probably subside. And I'm not calling for 150% growth rates in 2026. We'll give more color on Four in February of 2026.

作為參考點，2024 年的 GMV 約為 3 億美元。我們正在順利實現這一目標，並在 2025 年實現更多目標。當遵循大數定律時，成長率自然可能會下降。我並不是預測 2026 年的成長率會達到 150%。我們將在 2026 年 2 月為 Four 提供更多精彩內容。

But you can see the pure-play comps that are out there and what they're -- how they're doing and how they're being valued and how they're being rewarded by the capital markets, and we're very excited about that opportunity within the PROG Holdings ecosystem.

但你可以看到現有的純粹的公司以及它們的表現、它們的估值以及它們如何獲得資本市場的獎勵，我們對 PROG Holdings 生態系統中的這個機會感到非常興奮。

And that's as a stand-alone business. Then you kind of overlay the ability to have value creation within our ecosystem strategy, and within the leasing business and that gets us even more excited. So when you're talking about a customer acquisition channel that has hundreds of thousands of users per period. And as importantly, high frequency of transactions.

這是一項獨立的業務。然後，你就可以將創造價值的能力融入我們的生態系統策略和租賃業務中，這讓我們更加興奮。因此，當您談論每個時期擁有數十萬用戶的客戶獲取管道時。同樣重要的是，交易頻率高。

So you get to engage with that customer more frequently within a month, quarter and year, and you get more opportunities to serve up offers for affiliate products, it can get pretty exciting pretty fast. So I appreciate the question, and we'll continue to provide more color on Four.

因此，您可以在一個月、一個季度和一年內更頻繁地與該客戶互動，並且您有更多機會提供聯盟產品的優惠，這很快就會變得非常令人興奮。我很感謝你提出這個問題，我們將繼續為 Four 提供更多細節。

We've given some more details this quarter than we ever gave before. Take rate is metric in the industry that is kind of a inefficiency or monetization KPI that basically says for a given period, and we've given it for a 12-month period, what percentage of GMV translates into revenue. And so we've said that for the trailing 12-month period, it's approximately 10%.

我們本季提供的細節比以往更多。佣金率是行業中的一種指標，是一種效率或貨幣化關鍵績效指標，它基本上表明在給定的時間段內（我們給出了 12 個月的時間段），GMV 中有多少百分比可以轉化為收入。因此我們說，過去 12 個月，這一比例約為 10%。

That's an important metric, and you'll see that being provided by competitors. Frequency of transaction is another one, and we're about 5 times per quarter. We track customers as new, repeat and what we refer to as long, which is essentially a multi -- customer who's done many transactions with us.

這是一個重要的指標，你會看到競爭對手也提供這個指標。交易頻率是另一個因素，我們每季大約交易 5 次。我們將客戶分為新客戶、回頭客和長期客戶，長期客戶本質上是與我們進行過多次交易的多客戶。

And as you can imagine, those loss curves are different, right? So a new customer has a higher loss rate than a long customer, because a long customers have been derisked by improving their payment behavior over time.

正如您所想像的，這些損失曲線是不同的，對嗎？因此，新客戶的流失率高於長期客戶，因為長期客戶隨著時間的推移透過改善其付款行為而降低了風險。

At our stage in our scale, more of our growth is coming from new customers than it would if we were 4, 5 times our size. And so the loss rates on those new customers are higher. It's still profitable on an origination basis but higher.

就我們目前的規模而言，相較於規模擴大 4 到 5 倍而言，更多的成長來自於新客戶。因此這些新客戶的流失率更高。從起源角度來看，它仍然是有利可圖的，但利潤更高。

And as the platform gets bigger, and more of those news that perform well, become repeats and longs, those loss rates will come down, and that will also help serve for margin expansion. So a lot of good trends and opportunities within the Four business, as a stand-alone business as well as within the ecosystem.

隨著平台規模不斷擴大，更多表現良好的新聞被重複和買入，損失率將會下降，這也有助於擴大保證金。因此，無論是作為獨立業務還是生態系統內部，Four 業務中都存在著許多良好的趨勢和機會。

Great. That's helpful. And yeah, that take rate and frequency of transactions is higher than a couple of the buy-now-pay-later companies I cover, so that's helpful. Just one quick follow-up again on Four. I mean, I guess, is the business actually under earning in this -- as it's growing?

偉大的。這很有幫助。是的，這種交易的收費率和頻率比我報道的幾家先買後付的公司要高，所以這很有幫助。關於 Four，我只想再做一次快速跟進。我的意思是，我猜，在業務成長的同時，其獲利是否實際上低於預期？

Because to your point earlier, with the CECL credit reserving having put all those reserves up front and then the business growing by over 100%. I guess, with the underlying earnings power actually be higher than what's being reported now? Thank you.

因為正如您之前所說，CECL 信用準備金已將所有這些準備金預先存入，然後業務增長了 100% 以上。我猜，其潛在盈利能力實際上會高於現在報告的水平？謝謝。

I mean, yeah, you -- as -- yes, I mean, the short answer is yes. As growth rates moderate, then that change in provision isn't going to be as impactful and margins can and will expand. I mean to go back to what Brian said earlier, I mean, Q4 is growing. It's such a seasonal business. Q4 will be, by a wide margin, the largest GMV quarter for the business for 2025, and December specifically, will be larger than any month by a wide margin.

我的意思是，是的，你——是的——是的，我的意思是，簡短的回答是肯定的。隨著成長率放緩，撥備的變化將不會產生太大影響，利潤率可以而且將會擴大。我的意思是回到 Brian 之前所說的，我的意思是 Q4 正在增長。這是一個季節性的生意。第四季將成為 2025 年該業務 GMV 最高的一個季度，而 12 月的 GMV 將遠高於任何月份。

So it will actually swing the business to an adjusted EBITDA loss in Q4, and that's baked into our outlook. But that, as you know, from CECL, that's not a bad thing. It just is a function of the growth. So yeah, as the business scales, and as we have healthy growth rates, but not like uber charged kind of plus triple-digit growth rates, that margin will expand. And we expect that the margins that some of the public competitors are achieving are not out of the realm of possibility for us over time.

因此，它實際上將使第四季度的業務轉向調整後的 EBITDA 虧損，這已包含在我們的預期中。但正如你從 CECL 所知，這並不是一件壞事。這只是成長的功能。所以，是的，隨著業務規模的擴大，隨著我們擁有健康的成長率，但不像優步那樣收取三位數以上的成長率，利潤率將會擴大。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，一些上市競爭對手所取得的利潤對我們來說並非不可能。

Okay, great. That's super helpful. Thanks very much.

好的，太好了。這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Thanks, Vincent.

謝謝，文森特。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Steve Michaels for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想請史蒂夫‧麥可斯作最後發言。

Yeah. Thank you all for joining us this morning, and as always for your interest in PROG Holdings. We delivered another good quarter. As we've discussed, we continue to deal with some leasing GMV headwinds, but that's nothing we haven't faced before. The teams are energized and up to the task.

是的。感謝大家今天早上加入我們，也一如既往地感謝你們對 PROG Holdings 的關注。我們又交出了一份出色的季度業績。正如我們所討論的，我們繼續應對一些租賃 GMV 逆風，但這並不是我們以前沒有遇到過的。團隊充滿活力，能夠勝任這項任務。

Our portfolio is in good shape and we continue to actively manage it to ensure consistent performance. As we've talked about, and I appreciate the questions, we are very excited about where Four is currently, and more excited about where it's going. I want to thank all the team members for their tireless work and dedication, and we look forward to updating you again on our October call.

我們的投資組合狀況良好，我們將繼續積極管理以確保持續的表現。正如我們所討論的，我很感謝這些問題，我們對 Four 目前的狀況感到非常興奮，對它的未來發展更加興奮。我要感謝所有團隊成員的不懈工作和奉獻精神，我們期待在十月份的電話會議上再次向您通報最新情況。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。