PROG Holdings Inc (PRG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day. And thank you for standing by. Welcome to PROG Holdings third quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

再會。感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, John Baugh. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我將會議交給演講主持人約翰·鮑夫 (John Baugh)。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the PROG Holdings third quarter, 2024 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Steve Michaels, PROG Holdings President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Garner, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起出席的還有 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steve Michaels；以及我們的財務長 Brian Garner。

Many of you have already seen a copy of our earnings release issued this morning, which is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.progholdings.com.

你們中的許多人已經看到了我們今天早上發布的收益報告副本，該副本可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.progholdings.com 上查閱。

During this call, certain statements we make will be forward-looking, including comments regarding our revised 2024 full year outlook and our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024. The health of our portfolio and our expectations for write offs for our progressive leasing segment for the full year 2024, our expectations regarding GMV for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 and our capital allocation priorities including our ability to continue returning capital to shareholders.

在本次電話會議中，我們發表的某些聲明將具有前瞻性，包括有關我們修訂後的 2024 年全年展望和 2024 年第四季展望的評論。我們的投資組合的健康狀況、我們對2024 年全年漸進式租賃部門註銷的預期、我們對第四季度和2024 年全年GMV 的預期以及我們的資本配置優先事項，包括我們繼續向股東返還資本的能力。

Listeners are cautioned not to place undue emphasis on forward-looking statements we make today, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

請聽眾不要過度強調我們今天所作的前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述都存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。

We undertake no obligation to update any such statements. On today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures including adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS which have been adjusted for certain items which may affect the comparability of our performance with other companies.

我們不承擔更新任何此類聲明的義務。在今天的電話會議上，我們將參考某些非GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的EBITDA 和非GAAP EPS，這些指標已根據某些項目進行了調整，這可能會影響我們與其他公司的業績可比性。

These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release. The company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful insight into the company's operational performance and cash flows and provides these measures to investors to help facilitate comparisons of operating results with prior periods and to assist them in understanding the company's ongoing operational performance.

這些非公認會計準則指標在我們的收益報告中包含的對帳表中有詳細說明。該公司認為，這些非公認會計準則財務指標為了解公司的營運績效和現金流量提供了有意義的見解，並向投資者提供這些指標，以幫助他們比較與前期的營運結果，並幫助他們了解公司持續的營運績效。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve Michaels, PROG Holdings President and Chief Executive Officer. Steve?

接下來，我想將電話轉給 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steve Michaels。史蒂夫？

Thanks John. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us, as we discuss our third quarter results provide insights into Q4 and share updates to our full year 2024 financial outlook. As announced earlier today, we delivered another great quarter, surpassing expectations for GMV growth and approximating the high end of our revenue, earnings and non-GAAP diluted EPS outlook.

謝謝約翰。大家早安，感謝您的加入，我們將討論第三季的業績，提供對第四季度的見解，並分享我們 2024 年全年財務展望的更新。正如今天早些時候宣布的那樣，我們又一個季度表現優異，GMV 成長超出預期，收入、收益和非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益預期接近高端。

Our Q3 results highlight the effectiveness of our strategy and the strong execution by our team. With a relentless focus on enhancing both customer and retailer experiences, we successfully maintained top line momentum and gained balance of share.

我們的第三季業績凸顯了我們策略的有效性和我們團隊的強大執行力。透過不懈地致力於提升客戶和零售商的體驗，我們成功地保持了營收成長動能並獲得了份額平衡。

Our direct to consumer efforts continue to deepen customer engagement, fueling growth. Additionally, external factors such as tighter approval rates from lenders higher up in the credit stack also contributed to the Q3 GMV growth for the progressive leasing segment.

我們直接面向消費者的努力不斷加深客戶參與度，推動成長。此外，信貸層級較高的放貸者批准率收緊等外部因素也推動了漸進租賃領域第三季 GMV 的成長。

I'm incredibly proud of our team for delivering consecutive quarters of accelerating GMV, with progressive leasing's Q3 GMV growth coming in at 11.6%.

我為我們的團隊連續幾季實現 GMV 加速成長感到無比自豪，其中 Progressive Lens 第三季的 GMV 成長率達到 11.6%。

Our strategic focus on the Grow, Enhance, and Expand pillars is driving meaningful improvements across key performance metrics. This year-over-year growth has been fueled by higher application volume, improved customer conversion and an increase in active doors and better productivity per door across both national and regional accounts.

我們對成長、增強和擴展支柱的策略重點正在推動關鍵績效指標的有意義的改進。這一同比增長得益於申請量的增加、客戶轉換率的提高、全國和地區帳戶活躍門數的增加和每扇門生產率的提高。

We're excited about what this return to growth means for our team, our retail partners and our shareholders. In Q3, we achieved consolidated revenue of $606.1 million representing 4% growth compared to Q3 2023. Our consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached $63.5 million resulting in a 10.5% margin driven by GMV growth and supported by stable portfolio performance and disciplined spending.

我們很高興看到這種恢復成長對我們的團隊、零售合作夥伴和股東意味著什麼。第三季度，我們的綜合收入達到 6.061 億美元，與 2023 年第三季相比成長了 4%。我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 達到 6,350 萬美元，利潤率達到 10.5%，這得益於 GMV 成長以及穩定的投資組合表現和有紀律的支出。

Looking ahead, we expect this momentum to carry through the remainder of 2024. Our GMV outperformance throughout the year has led to a 3.8% increase in our gross least asset or GLA balance as of the end of Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year, which is the key indicator of future revenues.

展望未來，我們預計這一勢頭將持續到 2024 年剩餘時間。我們全年的 GMV 出色表現導致截至 2024 年第三季末我們的總最低資產或 GLA 餘額與去年同期相比增長了 3.8%，這是未來收入的關鍵指標。

For context, we started the year with a 5.2% year-over-year decline in GLA and we entered Q3 close to flat. This positive trend in our GLA balance positions us well, for a successful 2025. In July, we shared that we expected our Q2 write off rate of 7.7% to mark the peak of quarterly write offs. And in Q3 write offs remained at 7.7% consistent with pre pandemic Q3, 2019 levels.

具體來說，今年年初我們的 GLA 年減了 5.2%，而進入第三季時則接近持平。我們的 GLA 餘額呈現正面趨勢，為我們在 2025 年取得成功奠定了良好基礎。7 月份，我們曾表示，預計第二季的核銷率為 7.7%，將達到季度核銷的峰值。第三季的核銷率仍為 7.7%，與 2019 年第三季疫情前的水準一致。

Our dynamic decisioning posture supported by a short four to six week feedback cycle, allows us to swiftly adjust to customer and portfolio health trends. Our proprietary machine learning decisioning models rapidly incorporate real time information, enabling us to fine tune our approval rates and amounts.

我們的動態決策態勢由短短四到六週的回饋週期支持，使我們能夠迅速適應客戶和投資組合的健康趨勢。我們專有的機器學習決策模型可以快速整合即時訊息，使我們能夠微調我們的批准率和金額。

While Brian will provide further details, I'm confident we are on track to maintain 2024 write offs within our targeted annual range of 6% to 8%. As part of our focus on the Grow, Enhance, and Expand strategy, we've made significant progress on our 2024 priorities.

雖然 Brian 將提供更多細節，但我相信我們預計將 2024 年的註銷率維持在 6% 至 8% 的目標年度範圍內。作為我們重點關注的成長、增強和擴展策略的一部分，我們在 2024 年優先事項上取得了重大進展。

These efforts have driven our year-to-date GMV growth and will fuel our success moving forward. Execution in these areas is essential to achieving our financial targets for 2025 and beyond sustainable and profitable growth remains at the core of our three pillar strategy.

這些努力推動了我們今年迄今為止的 GMV 成長，並將推動我們未來的成功。這些領域的執行對於實現我們 2025 年及以後的財務目標至關重要，永續和獲利成長仍然是我們三大支柱策略的核心。

Under our Grow pillar, I'm pleased to share that we signed a long term exclusive partnership with American Signature Inc, a top 15 retailer in furniture today's TOP 100 list. Further strengthening our regional market positioning alongside our national accounts.

在我們的成長支柱下，我很高興地告訴大家，我們與 American Signature Inc 簽署了長期獨家合作夥伴關係，該公司是當今家具 TOP 100 榜單中排名前 15 的零售商。在加強我們國家帳戶的同時，進一步加強我們的區域市場定位。

Our regional business delivered another impressive quarter of GMV growth in the low double digits. We're driving growth across several dimensions to include investing in existing partnerships, expanding through new partnerships, increasing brand awareness to acquire new customers, engaging customers through targeted marketing efforts and strengthening our direct to consumer business and e-commerce penetration.

我們的區域業務又一個季度實現了令人印象深刻的 GMV 成長，成長率達到兩位數。我們正在從多個方面推動成長，包括投資現有的合作夥伴關係、透過新的合作夥伴關係進行擴展、提高品牌知名度以獲取新客戶、透過有針對性的行銷活動吸引客戶以及加強我們的直接面向消費者的業務和電子商務滲透率。

Our investments in sales, marketing and technology have delivered significant value to our retail partners and firmly positioned progressive leasing as a market leader. Key evidence of the value our retailers find in partnering with progressive leasing is their willingness to enter and renew long term exclusive contracts with us that give us both the ability to focus on deepening our partnership and integrations and prioritizing our initiative road maps.

我們在銷售、行銷和技術方面的投資為我們的零售合作夥伴帶來了巨大的價值，並牢固地確立了漸進式租賃作為市場領導者的地位。我們的零售商認為與漸進式租賃合作很有價值，關鍵證據就是他們願意與我們簽訂並續簽長期獨家合同，這讓我們能夠專注於深化合作夥伴關係和整合，並優先考慮我們的計劃路線圖。

At the end of Q3, over 75% of our progressive leasing GMV is under multiyear exclusive contracts with approximately half of all GMV under contract into the 2030. We take great pride in our track record of renewing and extending exclusive agreements with key retail partners, further solidifying our leadership in the industry.

截至第三季末，我們 75% 以上的漸進式租賃 GMV 均簽訂了多年期獨家合同，其中約一半的 GMV 簽訂了到 2030 年的合約。我們對與主要零售合作夥伴續簽和延長獨家協議的記錄感到非常自豪，這進一步鞏固了我們在行業中的領導地位。

As part of our direct to consumer initiatives, the PROG Marketplace platform which allows customers to shop anytime, anywhere through our mobile app continue to gain significant traction in Q3. Year-to-date, the platform has delivered over 300% growth and is on track to exceed our 2024 GMV target to roughly double GMV year-over-year.

作為我們直接面向消費者計劃的一部分，PROG 市場平台允許客戶透過我們的行動應用程式隨時隨地購物，並在第三季度繼續獲得顯著的發展勢頭。今年迄今，該平台已實現超過 300% 的成長，並有望超越我們 2024 年的 GMV 目標，即同比增長約一倍。

I'm excited about this growth as the PROG Marketplace channel complements our retail partners by driving incremental traffic and sales for them as well as GMV for progressive leasing. Simultaneously direct to consumer marketing efforts drove PROG branded campaigns taking advantage of seasonal opportunities like Amazon Prime Day as well as launching multi-channel promotions coordinated with partner offers to drive additional traffic.

我對這種成長感到非常興奮，因為 PROG 市場通路可以補充我們的零售合作夥伴，為他們帶來增量流量和銷售，以及漸進式租賃的 GMV。同時，直接面向消費者的行銷工作推動了 PROG 品牌活動，利用亞馬遜 Prime Day 等季節性機會以及推出與合作夥伴優惠相協調的多通路促銷活動來吸引更多流量。

Overall as we execute on our sales, marketing, and product initiatives, our marketable database of highly engaged customers is growing. E-commerce remains a focus as we strive to meet customers wherever and however they choose to shop.

總體而言，隨著我們執行銷售、行銷和產品計劃，我們高度參與客戶的市場資料庫正在不斷增長。我們致力於在任何地方、以任何方式滿足顧客的購物需求，電子商務仍是我們的關注重點。

The two custom e-commerce integrations completed in Q2, drove material growth bringing e-commerce GMV to 16.6% of total progressive leasing GMV in Q3 2024, up from 14.4% in Q2 2024 and 14.8% in Q3 2023.

第二季完成的兩項客製化電子商務整合推動了實質成長，使電子商務GMV 在2024 年第三季佔總漸進式租賃GMV 的16.6%，高於2024 年第二季的14.4% 和2023 年第三季的14.8%。

Under the Enhance pillar product and tech investments have improved customer experience and conversion rates. These advancements contributed to a 3.4% year-over-year increase in the total number of customers with active leases for our progressive leasing segment as of the end of Q3.

在增強支柱產品和技術投資下，客戶體驗和轉換率得到了改善。截至第三季末，這些進步使我們漸進式租賃部門的活躍租賃客戶總數年增了 3.4%。

We segment customer activity into three groups, new, repeat, and reactivated. For clarification, we define reactivated customers as those that last funded a lease more than 24 months ago. This segmentation allows us to tailor our marketing strategies to each group's unique needs and behaviors.

我們將客戶活動分為三類：新客戶、重複客戶和重新啟動客戶。為了清楚起見，我們將重新啟用的客戶定義為上次支付租賃費用超過 24 個月的客戶。透過這種細分，我們能夠根據每個群體的獨特需求和行為來制定行銷策略。

For instance, new customers require more introductory information and incentives to try our product, while repeat customers benefit from personalized marketing as we gather deeper insights into their purchasing patterns. New and reactivated customers increased approximately 20% and 12% year-over-year respectively in Q3, while we maintained repeat customer contributions to GMV.

例如，新客戶需要更多的介紹資訊和激勵措施來嘗試我們的產品，而回頭客則受益於個人化行銷，因為我們對他們的購買模式有了更深入的了解。第三季度，新客戶和重新啟動的客戶分別年增約 20％ 和 12％，同時我們保持了回頭客對 GMV 的貢獻。

Our ability to expand our customer base while retaining loyal repeat customers who deliver a higher lifetime value is a critical driver of our business. By focusing on growth across all three customer segments of new, repeat, and reactivated, we are working to capture a larger share of our underserved addressable market in a cost effective manner.

我們擴大客戶群並留住提供更高終身價值的忠誠回頭客的能力是我們業務的關鍵驅動力。透過專注於新客戶、回頭客和重新激活客戶這三個客戶群體的成長，我們正在努力以經濟有效的方式佔領更大份額的服務不足的潛在市場。

We're innovating with AI driven solutions, rolling out enterprise wide and consumer facing AI tools that enhance both operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. We implemented an AI assistant to enable employee self-service for all inquiries related to policies and benefits information.

我們正在透過人工智慧驅動的解決方案進行創新，推出企業範圍和麵向消費者的人工智慧工具，以提高營運效率和客戶滿意度。我們實施了人工智慧助手，使員工能夠自助查詢與政策和福利資訊相關的所有資訊。

Additionally, we launched our first consumer facing AI assistant pilot program designed to enhance customer satisfaction by providing immediate assistance, marking a key step in transforming our customer support experience.

此外，我們推出了首個面向消費者的人工智慧助理試點計劃，旨在透過提供即時幫助來提高客戶滿意度，這標誌著我們轉變客戶支援體驗的關鍵一步。

I want to take a moment to thank our entire team for their tremendous efforts in not only driving short term results but also embracing change to set the stage for our future through growth. Maintaining a healthy portfolio and remaining disciplined with spending.

我想花點時間感謝我們整個團隊的巨大努力，他們不僅推動了短期成果，而且接受變化，為我們透過成長的未來奠定了基礎。保持健康的投資組合併嚴格控制支出。

Our performance is a direct result of their hard work and dedication to our mission, creating a better today and unlocking the possibilities of tomorrow through financial empowerment. Given the performance and momentum we've seen this year, we're pleased to update our full year 2024 outlook with both revenue and earnings now expected to exceed our prior expectations.

我們的績效直接歸功於他們的辛勤工作和對我們使命的奉獻，即透過金融賦權創造更美好的今天並釋放未來的可能性。鑑於我們今年的表現和勢頭，我們很高興更新我們的 2024 年全年展望，預計收入和收益都將超過我們先前的預期。

This outperformance is being driven by increased GMV for our progressive leasing segment, reflecting our efforts to deepen existing retail partnerships, on board new partners, enhance technology, attract new customers through targeted marketing and expand PROG Marketplace.

這一優異表現得益於我們漸進式租賃部門的GMV 成長，反映了我們為深化現有零售合作夥伴關係、吸收新合作夥伴、增強技術、透過有針對性的行銷吸引新客戶以及擴大PROG 市場所做的努力。

For the fourth quarter, we expect GMV growth to be in the range of high single to low double digits, driven by the positive momentum we've observed while we monitor a dynamic consumer environment.

對於第四季度，我們預計 GMV 成長率將在高個位數至低兩位數之間，這得益於我們在監測動態消費環境時觀察到的積極勢頭。

So far in October, we're off to a strong start though, as with every year at this time, we still have in front of us, the all-important holiday season where we have historically generated approximately 50% of the quarter's GMV in the five week period spanning Black Friday to Christmas Eve. We remain focused on executing our strategy to carry this momentum into the end of the year and position ourselves for success in 2025.

到目前為止，10 月我們開局良好，與每年這個時候一樣，我們仍然面臨最重要的假日季，歷史上我們在這一季度的 GMV 中佔比約為 50%。五週時間。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略，將這一勢頭延續到年底，並為 2025 年的成功做好準備。

Finally, on the topic of capital allocation, our priorities remain unchanged and we expect to continue to fund growth, look for strategic M&A opportunities and return excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

最後，關於資本配置，我們的重點保持不變，我們希望繼續為成長提供資金，尋找策略併購機會，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還多餘的現金。

I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Brian Garner for more details on Q3 results and remainder of the year outlook. Brian?

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的財務長 Brian Garner，以了解有關第三季業績和今年剩餘時間展望的更多詳細資訊。布賴恩？

Thanks Steve and good morning everyone. We are pleased to report that our third quarter, 2024 results exceeded GMV expectations and came in near the high end of the range for revenues, earnings and non-GAAP diluted EPS that we provided in late July. I'd like to begin by thanking our team for delivering another successful quarter.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家早安。我們很高興地報告，我們 2024 年第三季的業績超出了 GMV 預期，並且接近我們在 7 月下旬提供的收入、收益和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益範圍的高端。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊又一個成功的季度。

I'll now take you through a more detailed breakdown of our results, starting with progressive leasing segment, GMV exceeded expectations with an 11.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing our anticipated high single digit growth rate.

現在我將向您更詳細地介紹我們的業績，從漸進租賃部門開始，GMV 超出預期，同比增長 11.6%，超過了我們預期的高個位數增長率。

As Steve mentioned, we've successfully implemented multiple strategic initiatives that have boosted both applicant flow and conversion rates. Looking ahead, we have several additional initiatives in progress for Q4 which we believe will sustain this momentum.

正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們已經成功實施了多項策略性舉措，提高了申請人流量和轉換率。展望未來，我們在第四季還有幾項額外舉措正在推進中，我們相信這些舉措將保持這一勢頭。

Our GMV growth again outpaced most of our larger retail partners comparable store sales materially. Additionally, we are benefiting from the tightening of credit supply above us and we expect this environment to persist at least through the end of 2024.

我們的商品交易總額 (GMV) 成長再次大幅超過大多數大型零售合作夥伴的同店銷售額。此外，我們也受惠於上方信貸供應的收緊，我們預期這種環境至少會持續到 2024 年底。

As a result, one of the highlights this quarter is the growth of our gross least asset balance, a primary driver of future revenue which is now 3.8% higher than the same period last year, driven by two consecutive quarters of accelerating GMV growth.

因此，本季的一大亮點是我們的總最低資產餘額的成長，這是未來收入的主要驅動力，目前比去年同期高出 3.8%，這得益於連續兩個季度的 GMV 加速成長。

This year-over-year growth marks the first time since Q3 of 2022 that we ended a quarter with a larger portfolio size. We expect the GLA balance to improve for the remainder of the year, contributing to revenue growth implied in our revised outlook.

這一同比增長標誌著我們自 2022 年第三季以來首次以更大的投資組合規模結束一個季度。我們預計今年剩餘時間內 GLA 餘額將有所改善，從而有助於我們修訂後的展望中所暗示的收入成長。

Q3 revenues for progressive leasing segment increased 3.3% from $564.2 million in Q3 of 2023 to $582.6 million driven by the growth in our leased portfolio and higher 90 day early purchases that compared to the same period last year. This return to growth is exciting as it reflects the effective execution of our strategy, the strength of our partnerships and the demand for our product. We believe this momentum positions us well for sustained success moving forward.

漸進式租賃部門第三季營收從 2023 年第三季的 5.642 億美元成長 3.3% 至 5.826 億美元，這得益於我們的租賃組合成長以及與去年同期相比 90 天提前購買量的增加。這種恢復成長令人興奮，因為它反映了我們策略的有效執行、我們合作夥伴關係的實力以及對我們產品的需求。我們相信，這股動能將為我們未來的持續成功奠定基礎。

The Q3 portfolio performance for progressive lease remained within our targeted annual write off range. The provision for lease merchandise write offs was 7.7% in Q3 which is consistent with the pre pandemic period of Q3 of 2019, however, slightly higher than our expectations due to higher delinquencies and an increase in the provision for lease merchandise write offs relating to the strong GMV growth in the period.

漸進式租賃的第三季投資組合表現仍在我們的目標年度註銷範圍內。第三季的租賃商品註銷準備金為 7.7%，與 2019 年第三季疫情前的情況一致，但由於拖欠率上升和與疫情相關的租賃商品註銷準備金增加，略高於我們的預期。期間GMV 成長強勁。

We are confident in our ability to continue to manage the lease portfolio real time with our dynamic decisioning models supported by a short duration portfolio which turns over on average every six to seven months. This allows us to swiftly adjust approval rates and amounts that customer and portfolio health trends while still maintaining growth. We anticipate full year write offs to be within our target range of 68%.

我們有信心繼續即時管理租賃組合，利用我們的動態決策模型以及平均每六到七個月週轉一次的短期租賃組合的支援。這使我們能夠根據客戶和投資組合的健康趨勢迅速調整批准率和金額，同時保持成長。我們預計全年註銷率將在我們的 68% 的目標範圍內。

90-day early purchases remained elevated compared to historic lows in 2023 bolstered by higher than expected new customer growth rates. As expected, our gross margin of 31.2% in Q3 of 2024 was 110 basis points lower than prior year.

由於新客戶成長率高於預期，90 天提前購買量與 2023 年的歷史最低點相比仍處於高位。正如預期的那樣，我們 2024 年第三季的毛利率為 31.2%，比去年同期低 110 個基點。

Progressive leasing's SG&A expense in Q3 was $76.5 million a decrease of approximately $700,00 or 0.9% compared to $77.2 million in the same quarter last year. As a percentage of revenue SG&A expenses decreased by 60 basis points year-over-year from 13.7% of revenues in Q3 of 2023 to 13.1% of revenues in Q3 of 2024.

Progressive leasing 第三季的銷售、一般及行政費用為 7,650 萬美元，較去年同期的 7,720 萬美元減少約 70 萬美元，降幅為 0.9%。銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比年減 60 個基點，從 2023 年第三季的 13.7% 下降到 2024 年第三季的 13.1%。

As a reminder, this improvement was primarily due to the restructuring actions taken in Q1 of this year. Despite these cost cutting measures, we've maintained our investment in sales, marketing, and technology to drive profitable GMV.

提醒一下，這項改善主要歸功於今年第一季採取的重組措施。儘管採取了這些削減成本的措施，我們仍保持對銷售、行銷和技術的投資，以推動盈利的 GMV。

Adjusted EBITDA for progressive leasing in Q3 was $66.5 million and 11.4% of revenue is within our 11% to 13% annual margin target for the progressive leasing segment. This adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.4% is 190 basis points lower compared to 13.3% in Q3 of 2023 driven by headwinds to gross margin with 90 day purchase options and write offs, approximating pre pandemic levels partially offset by SG&A discipline.

第三季漸進式租賃的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,650 萬美元，佔營收的 11.4%，符合我們漸進式租賃部門 11% 至 13% 的年度利潤率目標。調整後的EBITDA 利潤率為11.4%，較2023 年第三季的13.3% 下降190 個基點，原因是90 天購買選擇權和註銷導致毛利率面臨阻力，接近疫情前的水平，但銷售、一般及行政管理方面的紀律部分抵銷了這一影響。

Turning to consolidated results. Q3 of 2024 revenues of $606.1 million compared to $582.9 million in the same quarter last year was driven by GMV growth along with an increase in customers exercising their 90 day purchase options at the progressive leasing segment. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $63.5 million and 10.5% of revenue compared to $71.7 million and 12.3% in the year ago period.

轉向綜合業績。2024 年第三季的營收為 6.061 億美元，而去年同期為 5.829 億美元，這得益於 GMV 成長以及在漸進租賃領域行使 90 天購買選擇權的客戶增加。綜合調整後 EBITDA 為 6,350 萬美元，佔營收的 10.5%，去年同期為 7,170 萬美元，佔營收的 12.3%。

Looking at our balance sheet, we ended the third quarter of 2024 with $221.7 million cash and gross debt of $600 million resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. We remain undrawn on our $350 million revolver at the end of the quarter. We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share in September. and during the quarter, we repurchased 810,000 shares of our common stock at a weighted average price of $45.69 per share. We have $401.8 million remaining under a recently reauthorized $500 million share repurchase program.

查看我們的資產負債表，截至 2024 年第三季度，我們的現金為 2.217 億美元，總債務為 6 億美元，導致過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率為 1.4 倍。截至本季末，我們仍未動用 3.5 億美元的循環信貸。我們在九月支付了每股 0.12 美元的季度現金股息。本季度，我們以每股 45.69 美元的加權平均價格回購了 810,000 股普通股。根據最近重新授權的 5 億美元股票回購計劃，我們還剩餘 4.018 億美元。

As we look ahead, we remain optimistic about finishing the year strong. We believe our Q4 GMV will maintain its positive trajectory delivering a high single digit to low double digit year over year growth for a progressive leasing segment.

展望未來，我們對於今年的強勁收官仍抱持樂觀態度。我們相信，第四季度的 GMV 將保持積極的趨勢，為漸進式租賃部門帶來高個位數至低兩位數的年成長。

With economic pressures continue to affect consumers across the credit spectrum, we anticipate that the benefits we saw in Q3 from the tightening of the credit supply above us will persist through the rest of the year, contributing to our overall performance.

由於經濟壓力持續影響整個信貸領域的消費者，我們預計，第三季信貸供應收緊的好處將持續到今年剩餘時間，有助於我們的整體表現。

Our outperformance with GMV improved the GLA balance which was roughly flat going into Q3 and is up 3.8% year-over-year going into Q4. This improvement in GLA along with our anticipated Q4 GMV growth benefits revenue and is reflected in our increased 2024 revenue outlook.

我們在 GMV 的優異表現改善了 GLA 餘額，進入第三季時 GLA 餘額基本上持平，而進入第四季時則同比增長了 3.8%。GLA 的改善以及我們預期的第四季度 GMV 成長有利於收入，並反映在我們 2024 年收入預期的提高中。

Our leasing portfolio performance is expected to remain within our target yields to deliver our provision for lease merchandise write offs for the full year within our annual target range of 60%. We believe liquidity pressures facing a portion of our consumers will persist for the remainder of the year and trends from these challenges have been incorporated into our decisioning model and financial forecast.

我們的租賃組合表現預計將保持在我們的目標收益率範圍內，以實現全年租賃商品註銷準備金在我們 60% 的年度目標範圍內。我們相信，部分消費者面臨的流動性壓力將在今年剩餘時間內持續存在，這些挑戰的趨勢已納入我們的決策模型和財務預測中。

Q4 gross margin is expected to be a difficult comparison for Q4 2023 for the progressive leasing segment primarily due to below average number of customers choosing to exercise their 90 day purchases last year.

預計 2023 年第四季漸進式租賃部門的第四季毛利率將很難比較，這主要是因為去年選擇行使 90 天購買權的客戶數量低於平均值。

Regarding SG&A, we are maintaining our disciplined approach and remain on track to deliver SG&A as a percentage of revenue in line with our full year expectations for the progressive leasing segment.

關於銷售、一般及行政費用，我們將繼續保持嚴謹的態度，並繼續按計劃實現銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比，與我們對漸進租賃部門的全年預期一致。

Our revised consolidated outlook for 2024 calls for revenues in the range of $2.44 billion to $2.46 billion adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $270 million to $275 million and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $3.30 to $3.40.

我們修訂後的 2024 年綜合展望預計收入在 24.4 億美元至 24.6 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，非 GAAP EPS 在 3.30 美元至 3.40 美元之間。

This outlook assumes a continuation that benefits from tightened credit above us, a difficult operating environment with soft demand for leasable consumer goods. No material changes in the company's decisioning posture, no material changes in the unemployment rate for our consumer base, an effective tax rate for non-GAAP EPS from approximately 28% and no impact from additional share repurchases.

這個前景假設，受益於我們上方信貸緊縮、艱難的經營環境和對可租賃消費品的疲軟需求，情況將繼續好轉。公司的決策態勢沒有重大變化，我們消費者群體的失業率沒有重大變化，非 GAAP EPS 的有效稅率約為 28%，且額外股票回購也沒有產生影響。

In summary, we are extremely pleased with our team's performance this year, which has set us up well for revenue and earnings growth as we head into 2025. Combined with our free cash flow generation, we are well positioned to deliver meaningful shareholder value.

總而言之，我們對團隊今年的表現感到非常滿意，這為我們邁向 2025 年的營收和獲利成長奠定了良好的基礎。結合我們的自由現金流創造，我們有能力為股東創造有意義的價值。

I will now turn the call over the operator for questions. Operator?

我現在將把電話轉給接線員以便提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Brad Thomas, KeyBanc.

布拉德湯瑪斯，KeyBanc。

Hi, good morning and congratulations on the nice momentum in GMV in particular. I wanted to first, follow up on that topic and Steve, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some of the puts and takes in GMV obviously American Signature and exciting larger customer that you have by the same token, country kind of digesting a big lots of bankruptcies that's underway right now and some store closures that are happening over there.

大家早安，特別祝賀 GMV 的良好發展勢頭。首先，我想跟進一下這個話題，史蒂夫，我想知道你能否談談 GMV 的一些利弊，顯然是 American Signature 和你擁有的令人興奮的更大的客戶，同樣，國家類型的消化目前正在發生的大量破產案件和一些正在關閉的商店。

Can you just talk about how you're -- what you're seeing from those customers and how you think about that impacting sales or GMV over the next few quarters?

您能否談談您對這些客戶的看法以及您認為這將對未來幾季的銷售或 GMV 產生什麼影響？

Yeah, thanks Brad. Yeah, we're pleased with the GMV performance in the quarter and our outlook for the closing out the year. Clearly the quarter was a little bit above our expectations, nicely above our expectations actually. And kind of played out a little bit delay we thought it would, but there was some marketing campaigns and promos that performed maybe a little better than we were anticipating and so we're pleased with that.

是的，謝謝布拉德。是的，我們對本季的 GMV 表現和今年年底的展望感到滿意。顯然，本季的表現略高於我們的預期，實際上遠高於我們的預期。雖然我們以為會稍微延遲一點，但有些行銷活動和促銷的效果可能比我們預期的要好一些，所以我們對此感到滿意。

And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, October is starting out strong, but it's always difficult to predict Q4 GMV because of that holiday season. And it's such an acute period where -- and this year from a calendar standpoint, it's very tight between Black Friday and Christmas Eve.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，10 月的開局表現強勁，但由於假期的原因，很難預測第四季度的 GMV。這是一個非常緊張的時期——從日曆的角度來看，今年「黑色星期五」和聖誕節前夕之間的時間非常緊張。

But you mentioned American Signature, we're very proud of that partnership. As we said in the press release, it's not really going to impact 2024 that much because of the launch being late in the year and -- but we're excited about that for 2025 as it relates to Big Lots, certainly partnering well with them and it's well known as you said that the bankruptcy and the plan that they're executing, they've closed a number of waves of stores and that's starting to accelerate and will impact Q4.

但您提到了 American Signature，我們對這段合作關係感到非常自豪。正如我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣，由於發佈時間較晚，因此它實際上不會對2024 年產生太大影響，但我們對2025 年的這項計劃感到很興奮，因為它與Big Lots 有關，肯定會與他們建立良好的合作關係正如您所說，眾所周知，他們正在實施破產和計劃，關閉了多批商店，而且這一進程正在加速，並將影響第四季度。

Certainly, we believe for us it's probably 100 basis points to 150 basis points headwind for the quarter. We're not commenting on 2025 obviously. But there's a lot to be excited about as it relates to GMV. We've got really good partnerships, really good integrations and marketing partnerships with our retailers. The top of the funnel dynamics as it relates to the credit supply above us is certainly helping as well.

當然，我們認為本季我們的逆風可能為 100 個基點到 150 個基點。顯然，我們不會對 2025 年發表評論。但它與 GMV 相關，有很多令人興奮的事情。我們與零售商建立了非常良好的合作夥伴關係、非常好的整合和行銷夥伴關係。與我們上方的信貸供應相關的漏斗頂部動態肯定也有幫助。

So there's always puts and takes, some customer stress out there as we referred to. But net-net, we're pleased with the various tailwinds that we've helped to create as well as a little bit of help from the macro on the credit supply side.

因此，正如我們所提到的那樣，總是存在著一些得失，以及一些客戶壓力。但總體而言，我們很高興看到我們所創造的各種順風以及宏觀因素在信貸供應方面給予的一點幫助。

Great. That's helpful, Steve. And if I could just ask a follow up on the write off. Equate -- part of the equation, we know that the consumer in the US is on the stretch side to some extent that sends more customers to you. I think that 4Q typically is your seasonal highest quarter for write offs. Do you think that'll still be the case here in 4Q? And to what degree do you think you maybe need to tighten a little bit on the line in the range from a decisioning standpoint. Thanks.

偉大的。這很有幫助，史蒂夫。我是否可以就註銷事宜詢問後續情況？等式－等式的一部分，我們知道美國的消費者在某種程度上處於延伸狀態，這會為您帶來更多的客戶。我認為第四季通常是註銷額最高的季度。您認為第四季的情況仍然如此嗎？從決策的角度來看，您認為在多大程度上可能需要在範圍內稍微收緊一點？謝謝。

Hey, Brad, It's Brian. Just this like with the seasonality aspect of it, we actually expect Q4 to step down from Q3 here and that's not different than what we would have seen in a typical year normally, what you're looking at is you look forward to tax season and the high cash collections during that time, your reserves reflect that strong payment performance in Q1.

嘿，布萊德，我是布萊恩。就像季節性因素一樣，我們實際上預計第四季度的銷售額將低於第三季度，這與我們通常看到的典型年份的銷售額沒有什麼不同，你所關注的是納稅季節的到來。那段時間的現金收款額很高，您的儲備金反映了第一季強勁的付款表現。

So, so from the 7.7%, we expect to step down. And, on the write offs, you've got a couple of dynamics, you've got some of this trade down that we referred to in our paper markets and at the bottom end of the funnel, we've got a little bit of stress as we indicated that we are actively managing. And I'll let Steve speak to the decisioning aspect of it.

因此，我們預計該比例將從 7.7% 下降。在註銷方面，你有一些動態，你有一些我們在紙質市場中提到的交易下降，在漏斗的底端，我們有一點壓力，正如我們表示，我們正在積極應對。我讓史蒂夫談談決策方面的問題。

Yeah, I mean, from a decision standpoint, Brad, as we always say, we're constantly monitoring and adjusting that posture based on what we're seeing in the data. And we have a very quick feedback loop so we can react quickly. We did do some tightening throughout the third quarter kind of as the quarter progressed. And I like to use the scalpel terminology because it wasn't like wholesale changes, it was pockets and looking for opportunities to just trim a little bit.

是的，我的意思是，從決策的角度來看，布拉德，正如我們常說的那樣，我們會根據我們在數據中看到的情況不斷監控和調整這種態勢。我們有一個非常快速的回饋迴路，因此我們可以快速做出反應。隨著季度的進展，我們確實在第三季採取了一些緊縮措施。我喜歡使用手術刀這樣的術語，因為它並不像全面的改變，而是一些小細節，尋找機會進行一點點修剪。

So, as we ended the quarter and as we sit here today, we're probably 100 basis points to 150 basis points lower on approval rate than we were this time last year. And we'll continue to monitor that and see what we think is necessary. And we're squarely confidently in that -- in our portfolio performance range that we've been in for the last, eight years or so, of that 68% on an annual basis.

因此，當我們結束本季並今天坐在這裡時，我們的批准率可能比去年同期低了 100 個基點到 150 個基點。我們將繼續監控此事並了解我們認為有必要採取哪些措施。我們對此非常有信心——在過去 8 年左右的時間裡，我們的投資組合表現每年都保持在 68% 的水平。

Great, very helpful and again, exciting to see the inflection building in the business. Thanks.

非常好，非常有幫助，很高興再次看到業務的轉變。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Brad.

是的，謝謝布拉德。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧赫克特 (John Hecht)。

Morning guys. Thanks very much for taking my questions and congratulations on a good quarter. First one is I'm just trying to -- I think I understand the dynamics of the early stage buyout and the write off. But is it is straightforward is that the EBOs, the increase in EBOs during the quarters is coming from maybe some of the newer higher quality, higher income cohort, customers, whereas the write offs are more contained to the lower income bands or is there some other dynamic there that we should think about?

大家早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀您本季取得了良好的業績。首先，我只是想——我認為我了解早期收購和註銷的動態。但很明顯的是，季度內 EBO 的成長可能來自一些較新的高品質、高收入群體的客戶，而註銷則更多地局限於低收入群體，或者是否存在一些還有什麼其他動態是我們應該思考的？

Hey John, it's Brian. I think you're thinking about it right. Just specifically with that trade down population, if we look at that in isolation, what we're seeing with some of the early indicators is they have a higher propensity to do a 90 day buyout. That's not surprising, given they're on average, a stronger credit profile.

嘿，約翰，我是布萊恩。我認為你想的是對的。具體來說，對於這些消費下降的人群，如果我們孤立地來看，我們會從一些早期指標中看到，他們更傾向於進行 90 天的買斷。這並不奇怪，因為他們的平均信用狀況更為強勁。

And they tend to keep it in check their write offs. And so you're going to have some margin, gross margin consideration as you have higher propensity for 90 days from that trade down population. They also tend to skew new, these are customers that we largely have not seen before and that's a new customer versus existing customer will tend to be slightly lower from a margin standpoint.

而且他們傾向於控制註銷金額。因此，您將獲得一些利潤和毛利率考慮，因為您在 90 天內有更高的消費傾向。他們也傾向於選擇新客戶，這些客戶大多是我們以前從未見過的，從利潤率的角度來看，新客戶與現有客戶的比率往往會略低。

But as you think about the long term prospect of this customer we're looking at is very favorable because here we've got an opportunity to have this customer be a repeat, the lifetime value prospect is very strong. And so you might see some initial, I would say slight gross margin pressures relating to the trade down population, it's early and they're not a majority of the story. And so it's -- I characterize it is relatively small, but it is something that, may play out over the course of the next few quarters and we'll keep folks updated on that but it is relatively small.

但是當你考慮到這個客戶的長期前景時，我們看到的是非常有利的，因為我們有機會讓這個客戶成為回頭客，終身價值前景非常強勁。因此，您可能會看到一些初步的、我認為與消費降級人群相關的輕微的毛利率壓力，但這還為時過早，而且他們並不是故事中的大多數。所以—我認為它相對較小，但它可能會在接下來的幾個季度內發揮作用，我們會隨時向大家通報最新情況，但它相對較小。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just another question on the GMV growth. Can you any -- I apologize if you mentioned this but, can you bifurcate it by existing merchants versus new merchants?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後還有一個關於 GMV 成長的問題。您能否—如果您提到這一點，我深感抱歉，但是，您能否將其分為現有商家和新商家？

No, John, we didn't say that and we generally don't give that out. But we did say that overall was 11.6% and our regions were low double digits. So we saw nice growth across the platform.

不，約翰，我們沒有這麼說過，而且我們通常不會透露這一點。但我們確實說過，整體是 11.6%，而且我們地區的成長率都是低兩位數。因此我們看到整個平台都實現了良好的成長。

Okay. And then final question, is there any update on the progressive marketplace from a revenue growth and any pipeline potential for merchant ads in that initiative?

好的。最後一個問題，從收入成長來看，漸進式市場是否有任何更新，以及該計畫中商家廣告的管道潛力如何？

Yeah. We're excited and pleased with progressive marketplace with PROG Marketplace, it's up over 300% year-to-date and we put out a guide earlier this year for it to kind of double. So we're clearly ahead of that. Few of the drivers of the outperformance are, we're really getting sophisticated on our targeted marketing efforts and our tech and product teams are improving the customer experience in the checkout, because simplifying that checkout experience is super important to get conversion in that direct consumer motion.

是的。我們對 PROG Marketplace 的進步市場感到非常興奮和高興，今年迄今其成長了 300% 以上，我們在今年稍早發布了一份指南，預計將成長一倍。所以我們顯然領先了。績效優異的驅動因素包括，我們在定向行銷方面做得越來越好，我們的技術和產品團隊正在改善客戶結帳體驗，因為簡化結帳體驗對於直接消費者的轉換至關重要運動。

We're proud to have really good retailers that we partnered with and they are participants in the marketplace. And we've also got some affiliate partnerships that are helping us give more choice to our customers. But that product tech and marketing kind of combination are working very nicely together and we continue to look forward to the growth in the marketplace. We'll probably give a little bit more color on sizing for 2025 but not this quarter.

我們很榮幸能與非常優秀的零售商合作，他們也是市場的參與者。我們也建立了一些合作夥伴關係，幫助我們為客戶提供更多選擇。但產品技術和行銷的結合非常好，我們繼續期待市場的成長。我們可能會對 2025 年的尺寸給出更多細節，但不會是本季。

Great. Well, appreciate the update. Thanks very much.

偉大的。好吧，感謝您的更新。非常感謝。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

Anthony Chukumba, Loop Capital Markets.

安東尼·楚庫姆巴（Anthony Chukumba），Loop Capital Markets。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question, congrats on a strong quarter, a lot of positive signs in the quarter. So kind of a related question, a couple of questions have come up before. You are seeing the credit trade down, which is great to see, we certainly waited a long time for that.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題，恭喜您本季業績強勁，出現了許多正面跡象。這是一個相關的問題，之前已經出現過幾個問題了。您看到信貸交易下降，這是很高興看到的，我們確實等待這一天很長時間了。

And, you said that that's leading to a higher 90 day buyouts, which makes sense because that's more well, well-heeled customer. And also -- but also as you're saying that customer is more likely or less likely to result in a lease merchandise write off.

而且，您說這會導致 90 天買斷期延長，這是有道理的，因為目標客戶更為富裕。而且—但正如您所說，客戶更有可能或更不可能導致租賃商品註銷。

So I guess I'm what I'm trying to figure out is if that trade down is happening and it's clearly happening and it is impacting your gross margin, shouldn't we be also seeing lower lease merchandise write offs? Just -- I just wanted to sort of understand that dynamic.

所以我想弄清楚的是，如果這種折價正在發生，而且顯然正在發生，並且正在影響你的毛利率，我們是否也應該看到更低的租賃商品註銷額？只是——我只是想了解一下這種動態。

Hey, Anthony, it's Brian. Two dynamics, so the trade down is happening and they do generally tend to be a strong credit profile, but at the same time, as we indicated our prepared remarks, we have seen a slight increase in delinquencies just from the portfolio overall. And that's a statement independent of the trade down population.

嘿，安東尼，我是布萊恩。兩種動態，因此交易正在發生，而且它們通常傾向於具有強勁的信用狀況，但與此同時，正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，從整體投資組合來看，我們看到拖欠率略有增加。這是一個與貿易下降人口無關的聲明。

And that's not unlike a factor that the rest of the credit stack across the board has seen. So in our jobs to stay on top of that and monitor it and decision accordingly, I would just point out that 7.7% for Q3 is where we were at pre pandemic for the same period Q3.

這與其他信貸領域出現的情況類似。因此，我們的工作就是密切關注並監控這種情況並做出相應的決定，我只想指出，第三季 7.7% 的成長率與疫情前第三季同期的成長率相同。

So it is not a level that we're uncomfortable with or that we see is expanding into Q4. So we expect to step down, we're at relatively normalized levels here, but we're pointing out kind of the dynamics within the write off population, both the benefit from a trade down perspective and also at the bottom end of the funnel, some level of weakness.

因此，這並不是令我們感到不舒服的水平，也不是我們認為會擴大到第四季的水平。因此，我們預期會下降，我們目前處於相對正常的水平，但我們指出了註銷人群中的動態，既有從交易角度獲得的利益，也有在漏斗底端的利益，某種程度的虛弱。

But as we've demonstrated, in our, the course of the last few years through the ups and downs, hopefully, what's been observed is our strong ability to control that number on our P&L. And we fully intend to do so and if we have to make small iterative changes and decision and we'll do that, but it's not at the level that we're viewed as unusual.

但正如我們在過去幾年的起起落落中所展示的那樣，希望我們能夠強大地控制損益表中的數字。我們完全有意這樣做，如果我們必須做出小的迭代改變和決定，我們也會這樣做，但這並不達到被視為不尋常的程度。

Got it. Fair enough. That's helpful. And then this is some of obligatory question and you guys never give us super specific answer, but I'm going to ask it anyway, any update in terms of the large retail partner pipeline?

知道了。很公平。這很有幫助。這是一些必問的問題，你們從來沒有給我們非常具體的答案，但我還是要問，關於大型零售合作夥伴管道有什麼更新嗎？

Yeah, Anthony, good morning. I would be disappointed if you didn't ask that question. So, thank you. Yeah, I mean, not a specific update. We were pleased with some of the traction that we've gotten year-to-date. Certainly the ASI win was a nice momentum.

是的，安東尼，早安。如果你不問這個問題我會很失望。所以，謝謝你。是的，我的意思不是具體的更新。我們對今年迄今取得的一些進展感到滿意。毫無疑問，ASI 的勝利是一個很好的動力。

We're continuing, as we think that our partnership, our profile of the recent MAG conference with partners from Lowe's and Best Buy on the panel with our Chief Commercial Officer, really -- with some really nice retail representatives in the audience listening to how at least to own can help financial inclusion and how partnering with progressive is a big part of that those, those things land and they are helpful for setting up that next conversation. So we're encouraged by the progress but nothing of specifics to update you on.

我們將繼續進行我們的合作，我們在最近的 MAG 會議上與 Lowe's 和 Best Buy 的合作夥伴一起與我們的首席商務官一起參加討論會，在場的一些非常好的零售代表也聽我們講述至少擁有可以幫助金融包容性，以及如何與進步合作是其中的重要組成部分，這些事情落地，它們有助於建立下一個對話。因此，我們對進展感到鼓舞，但沒有具體資訊可以向您更新。

Fair enough. Thanks for taking my questions. Keep up the good work.

很公平。感謝您回答我的問題。繼續努力。

Thank you, Anthony.

謝謝你，安東尼。

Hoang Nguyen, TD Cowen.

Hoang Nguyen，TD Cowen。

Hi guys and congrats on the quarter. Sorry for keep bidding on the credit side. But I mean, you talk about delinquency being a little bit pressure. We know that which growth has based inflation for a while, which theoretically should help the lower income consumers that you serve. I guess -- I mean, what would it take for, I guess, charge off to trend back to maybe the middle of the range? And I have a follow up.

大家好，恭喜本季取得佳績。抱歉，我繼續在信用方面競標。但是我的意思是，你說犯罪會帶來一點壓力。我們知道，一段時間以來，通貨膨脹一直推動著成長，從理論上講，這應該會為你所服務的低收入消費者帶來幫助。我猜——我的意思是，我猜，需要什麼才能回到中間水平？我還有一個後續行動。

I'll start and Brian can add, but I would just say that when we give the range of 68% we're not trying to stick the landing at 7% right. We -- I mean, the middle of the range is in the range just like where we are now. So we're very comfortable, we feel like we've proven over time that we can manage this portfolio to the range that we provided.

我先開始，Brian 可以補充，但我只想說，當我們給出 68% 的範圍時，我們並不是想將目標保持在 7% 左右。我們 — — 我的意思是，範圍的中間值就像我們現在所處的範圍一樣。所以我們非常放心，我們覺得我們已經隨著時間的推移證明了我們可以將這個投資組合管理到我們提供的範圍內。

And we're constantly adjusting things. So I don't want to give the impression that 7% is our North Star, is the range is fluid and has a lot of impacts whether it be mix shift or from a retailer standpoint, from a mark, from a vertical standpoint also consumer shift.

我們正在不斷進行調整。因此，我不想給人留下這樣的印象：7% 是我們的北極星，範圍是流動的，並且會產生很大的影響，無論是從組合轉變，還是從零售商的角度，從品牌的角度，從垂直的角度，還是從消費者的角度轉移。

So I would just guard against expecting a 7%. So we're comfortable where we are as far as the consumer. I mean, there's been a lot of evidence across consumer exposed portfolios of stress and delinquencies. And so it's not -- we're certainly not alone in that battle, the link DQs or NCOs might be in line, but early stage DQs are seem to be rising which could cause some different results and kind of in the first quarter for some of the card providers.

因此我只是希望不要預期 7% 的增幅。因此，就消費者而言，我們對自己目前的狀況感到滿意。我的意思是，在消費者暴露的投資組合中，有大量證據表明存在壓力和違約行為。所以，我們當然不是孤軍奮戰，DQ 或 NCO 可能也在其中，但早期 DQ 似乎在增加，這可能會導致一些不同的結果，並且在第一季度對一些人來說卡提供商。

And we're seeing some of that as well. And so we're doing some trimming, appropriate trimming, but we're, the message should be that we're confident in controlling -- continue to control the portfolio.

我們也看到了一些這樣的情況。因此，我們正在進行一些調整，適當的調整，但我們的訊息應該是，我們有信心控制——繼續控制投資組合。

Got it. And maybe a follow up, maybe for Brian. I think seasonally your EPS tends to be down in 4Q versus 3Q I guess, given the 3Q performance and new guidance it looks like you're implying a stronger than seasonal 4Q this year. And so, I mean, maybe can you talk about the drivers of that.

知道了。也許是對 Brian 的後續行動。我認為從季節性角度來看，您的第四季每股收益往往會比第三季下降，但考慮到第三季的表現和新的指引，您似乎暗示今年第四季的業績將強於季節性表現。所以，我的意思是，也許您可以談論其中的驅動因素。

Yeah, it's hard to go back and remember the last normal Q4 that we've had. But I mean, I think generally, as we're thinking about, the earnings profile going into Q4, we're encouraged by the GMV production that we have here. It is going to bleed into revenue as our portfolio sizes increase. So, Q4 from a top line perspective is looking strong, we expect the write offs as I indicated is a percentage of revenue to step down from the 7.7% level. So that should assist us there.

是的，我們很難回想起上一次正常的第四季。但我的意思是，我認為總體而言，當我們考慮到第四季度的盈利狀況時，我們對這裡的 GMV 產量感到鼓舞。隨著我們的投資組合規模不斷擴大，它將會影響我們的收入。因此，從營收角度來看，第四季的業績表現強勁，我們預計註銷金額（正如我所指出的）佔收入的百分比將從 7.7% 的水平下降。這應該能對我們有幫助。

And then, we'll keep our spend in check. There's going to be an increase dollars of SG&A just from a seasonal aspect of some of those variable costs tied to GMV production take up. But overall, as you're indicating, we're looking forward to a strong Q4 and a good launching point into 2025.

然後，我們會控制支出。僅從與 GMV 生產佔用相關的部分變動成本的季節性因素來看，銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將會增加。但總體而言，正如您所說，我們期待第四季度業績強勁增長，並預計在 2025 年取得良好開端。

So there's not any kind of one time anomaly incorporated into our outlook. This is just ordinary course with a with a larger portfolio spinning off. What we think will be good growth margins and cost control that's what's resulting in the EPS guide.

因此，我們的展望中不存在任何一次性的異常現象。這只是普通的流程，但會剝離出更大的投資組合。我們認為良好的成長利潤率和成本控制將是每股盈餘指南的結果。

Got it. And I guess, I mean, based on your early conversations with your partners, I mean, are you seeing anything different in terms of promotional outlook for the holiday season this year versus last year?

知道了。我想，根據您與合作夥伴的早期對話，您是否認為今年假期季節的促銷前景與去年有什麼不同？

We've been planning for holiday for months with our retailers and partnering with them and in some cases there are other credit providers for promotional activity. We saw last year in holiday season that more customers that came in needed a payment plan and that in order to the benefit of the primary provider as well as well as a -- I don't think anything is going to change there.

幾個月來，我們一直在與零售商一起規劃假期並與他們合作，在某些情況下，還有其他信貸提供者來進行促銷活動。我們看到，去年假期期間，更多的顧客需要付款計劃，而這是為了主要供應商的利益——我認為不會發生任何改變。

From a holiday standpoint, I think it's probably going to be fairly promotional and it'll probably, it seems like it always starts early, but because of that calendar shift between Thanksgiving and Christmas, it'll probably start earlier, and be more pronounced earlier.

從節日的角度來看，我認為它可能會有相當的促銷效果，而且似乎總是會很早就開始，但由於感恩節和聖誕節之間的日曆轉換，它可能開始得更早，而且更加明顯更早。

So, we feel like we're in good position. And -- but we're not calling for like some inflection and underlying demand in our retail categories. Our GMV growth is coming from the things that we've talked about, the initiatives and some of the trade down.

因此，我們覺得我們處於有利地位。並且 — 但我們並沒有呼籲零售類別出現一些變化和潛在需求。我們的 GMV 成長來自於我們所談論的事情、舉措和一些降價。

Got it. Thank you guys.

知道了。謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bobby Griffin, Raymond James.

鮑比·格里芬、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good morning, buddy. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on a good quarter here. So I guess the first question for me is kind of just when you think about the long term EBITDA guide, progressive kind of as a whole is trending quite in the middle, right now, at 12%.

早上好，夥計。感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀本季度取得了良好的業績。所以我想對我來說第一個問題是，當你考慮長期 EBITDA 指南時，漸進式的整體趨勢處於中間水平，目前為 12%。

What's the pathway if we continue this healthy GMV growth towards the upper end? Is that something that's in your control or is it more just a function of kind of customer mix or 90 day buyouts? So what consumers are using the product just trying to get a sense of what could drive it towards the upper end if we stay on this healthy GMV growth path.

如果我們繼續保持這種健康的 GMV 成長並向高端邁進，那麼路徑是什麼？這是你能控制的事情嗎，還是只是客戶組合或 90 天買斷的功能？所以，消費者使用產品只是想了解，如果我們保持這種健康的 GMV 成長路徑，什麼可以推動它走向高端。

Yeah, I think -- hey, Bobby, it's Brian. I think what I'd say there is the disposition mix in terms of the outcomes that the customers choose on their leases is always going to be a big factor in overall EBITDA margins. And that's always been true with this business. And so we're starting to see some slight shift there with the higher propensity for 90 days.

是的，我認為——嘿，鮑比，我是布萊恩。我認為，就客戶在租賃中選擇的結果而言，處置組合始終是整體 EBITDA 利潤率的重要因素。對我們這個行業來說，情況一直都是這樣的。因此，我們開始看到一些輕微的變化，90 天的傾向更高。

But, generally speaking as you grow revenue, you're going to have opportunities for operating leverage over the long term. I think the question we have to ask ourselves internally, is there -- are there initiatives and an opportunity -- growth initiatives and opportunities for us to reinvest in the business and rather than kind of seeking a margin harvesting mode to push us towards the high end.

但一般來說，隨著收入的成長，您將有機會在長期內獲得營運槓桿。我認為我們必須問自己的問題是，是否有舉措和機會，是否有成長舉措和機會讓我們重新投資於業務，而不是尋求一種利潤收穫模式來推動我們走向高結尾。

So I think the opportunity would be there in a growth scenario for higher margins, all else being equal. But I think as long as we feel like we've got the ability to lean into GMV growth, profitable GMV over the course of time. That's what we're going to look first. And that's really been our philosophy since our inception.

因此我認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，在成長的情況下，就存在著獲得更高利潤的機會。但我認為，只要我們覺得自己有能力實現 GMV 成長，隨著時間的推移，我們就能實現獲利的 GMV。這就是我們首先要看的。這正是我們自成立以來的理念。

Okay. And yeah, that's not to say the 12% is not healthy, it's great and generates a lot of cash. Just trying to get a sense of what would -- what's in your control versus just the dynamics of the customer? So I appreciate that.

好的。是的，這並不是說 12% 不健康，它很棒而且可以產生很多現金。只是想了解一下－你能控制什麼，而不是只控制客戶的動態？我很感激。

And then Steve, I was just curious, we're seeing the trade down, we're seeing a lot of the macro things help you guys out and in the space itself. What is your view of the category, just like pure category side of things? Are they starting to actually stabilize and improve? Have you seen any of the categories that maybe took the first dive down post the COVID over earning start to improve from a category standpoint or is this GMV growth is really a function of all kind of progressive initiatives as well as just the macro side of things with the trade down and tightening at the credit stacks above.

然後史蒂夫，我很好奇，我們看到交易量下降，我們看到很多宏觀因素對你們以及整個領域都有幫助。您對類別的看法是什麼，就像純粹的類別方面的事情一樣？他們是否真的開始穩定和改善了？您是否看到在新冠疫情后收入首次下滑的品類從品類角度開始改善，或者 GMV 增長實際上是各種漸進式舉措以及宏觀層面的結果隨著貿易下滑和信貸緊縮。

Yeah, Bobby, thanks. I think as we sit here currently, it's pretty much the latter. It's the improvement in our execution in our partnerships with the retailers adding new doors. But also the credit supply dynamic and the trade down is manufacturing the GMV growth which is nice to see.

是的，鮑比，謝謝。我認為，就我們目前的情況來看，情況基本上是後者。這是我們與零售商合作的執行力的提升，增加了新的門市。但同時，信貸供應的動態和交易的減少也帶來了 GMV 的成長，這是令人欣喜的。

Clearly there's a couple of categories that are getting, I'd say less bad and less bad it may be the new up right now. So smartphones have been fairly strong for a while and never really saw a major dip compute and some home technology might starting to be inflecting a little bit. There's some retailers out there, that are kind of guiding to and hoping for a flat comp here in the holiday quarter.

顯然，有幾個類別的情況正在變得越來越好，我想說，越來越好的類別可能是現在出現的新情況。因此，智慧型手機在一段時間內保持強勁，並且從未真正看到過大幅下滑，而一些家用技術可能開始受到一些影響。有些零售商正在引導並希望假日季度的銷售額能持平。

And that makes sense from a replacement cycle standpoint. The further we get away from the pandemic demand pull forward, the more you're going to have the replacement cycle. But on the furniture and mattress side, which is so important for us and for the industry, quite frankly. It's still pretty tough out there and, it less bad is probably the label I would put on that as well, but it's still pretty bad. So and as we think about 2025 we're not expecting any kind of inflection in those categories.

從更換週期的角度來看，這是有道理的。我們離疫情需求拉動越遠，更換週期就越長。但就家具和床墊方面而言，坦白說，這對我們和整個行業來說都非常重要。外面的情況仍然相當艱難，我可能也會給它貼上「沒那麼糟」的標籤，但情況仍然相當糟糕。因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們預計這些類別不會有任何變化。

All right. That's helpful. And then, and I guess this is going to be a tough one to answer, but I'm curious, kind of your crystal ball view. But I mean, like in your history of thinking, when the category start to improve that the macro tail ones then go not against you, but they're just not as favorable. Or is there actually scenarios that you've seen over historical time where the categories actually start to improve in the macro tail ones stay there. So you could even see a further acceleration of what we're seeing today in trends.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，我猜這將是一個很難回答的問題，但我很好奇，有點像你的水晶球視圖。但是我的意思是，就像在你的思維歷史中一樣，當類別開始改善時，宏觀尾部因素不會對你不利，但它們並不那麼有利。或者實際上是否存在您在歷史時期內看到過的情景，其中宏觀尾部的類別實際上開始改善並保持在那裡。因此，你甚至可以看到我們今天所看到的趨勢進一步加速。

Yeah, there's not a lot of cycles that have repeated over the last kind of 25 years where that progressive has existed. I think there could be an overlap of acceleration and demand for the categories while supply is tight. But I don't -- to your point, I don't what your -- I don't think that it persists for very long.

是的，在過去的 25 年裡，這種進步並沒有重複太多的週期。我認為在供應緊張的情況下，各類別的加速和需求可能會重疊。但對於你的觀點，我不知道你的——我不認為它會持續很長時間。

But I think I've said previously, I would take strong consumer demand as a macro tailwind over tighter credit supply if I had to choose one of them, because the stronger consumer demand is a bigger force multiplier in our view for our business than the tighter credit supply. While we don't have it, the strong consumer demand, I'm pleased that we have the credit trade down that we've been anticipating for quite a while.

但我想我之前曾說過，如果必須選擇其中之一，我會選擇強勁的消費需求作為宏觀順風，而不是信貸供應收緊，因為在我們看來，強勁的消費需求對我們的業務來說是一個更大的力量倍增器，而不是信貸供應收緊。雖然我們沒有強勁的消費需求，但我很高興我們實現了期待已久的信貸交易下降。

But if all things being equal, I'd love them for -- to both of them to exist simultaneously. But I don't think that lasts for very long. But if we have an orderly transition from tighter credit supply to a stronger demand, then I think we'll be good in that scenario.

但如果所有條件都相同，我希望它們同時存在。但我認為這不會持續很久。但如果我們可以有秩序地從信貸供應緊縮過渡到需求強勁，那麼我認為在這種情況下我們會表現良好。

Perfect. I appreciate the details there and best of luck to you guys on the holiday selling season.

完美的。我很欣賞那裡的詳細信息，並祝你們在假日銷售季節好運。

Thanks Bobby.

謝謝鮑比。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特凱恩蒂克（Vincent Caintic），BTIG。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. One question but kind of a broad theme about focusing on the GMV. So basically wondering what you think of -- when you think about the medium or longer term GMV growth potential there is in the business. I appreciate the fourth quarter guidance of high single to low double digits and understanding there's probably some near term impact that you mentioned the Big Lots impact as well as I think there's five less holiday sales days, this particular fourth quarter.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。有一個問題，但是主題比較廣泛，主要關注 GMV。所以基本上想知道當您考慮該業務的中期或長期 GMV 成長潛力時您會怎麼想。我很欣賞第四季度高個位數到低兩位數的預期，並且了解可能存在一些短期影響，就像您提到的Big Lots的影響，而且我認為這個第四季度的假期銷售日減少了五個。

But when you think about kind of the medium and long term and your execution of winning more merchants and executing within the merchants that you already have and penetrating further. If you could help us understand that GMV growth potential, that would be helpful. Thank you.

但當您考慮中長期目標以及贏得更多商家、在現有商家內執行並進一步滲透時。如果您能幫助我們了解 GMV 成長潛力，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah, Vincent. We haven't really given a long term algorithm on GMV growth, but clearly the market is under penetrated and not being served fully. We are fortunate that within our existing retailers, we have built in or pent up, however, you want to think about it growth because of various tools and initiatives. And as I've referred to as road maps that we haven't fully deployed and are partnering with our retailers to get those deployed. We've had a lot of success over the last two years to do that and some of the growth has -- and the progress has come from that. So we've got some built in growth from just the installed base.

是的，文森。我們還沒有真正給出 GMV 成長的長期演算法，但顯然市場滲透率還不夠高，而且沒有得到充分的服務。我們很幸運，在現有的零售商中，我們已經建立或抑制了成長，但是，您希望透過各種工具和舉措來考慮它的成長。正如我所提到的，我們尚未完全部署路線圖，但我們正在與零售商合作部署它們。過去兩年我們在這方面取得了巨大成功，一些成長和進步也源自於此。因此，我們僅從安裝基礎就獲得了一些內在成長。

But over -- if you're talking about intermediate and longer term, clearly, we need to add new retailers to the platform to keep that type of growth going. But we're pleased with the acceleration that we've seen here. And as we said, some of it is macro but I want to reinforce that just having trade down dump apps into the top of our funnel. It does not necessarily mean that we're guaranteed new funded leases or new GMV.

但如果從中期和長期來看，顯然我們需要在平台上增加新的零售商，以保持這種成長。但我們對這裡看到的加速感到滿意。正如我們所說，其中一些是宏觀的，但我想強調的是，只需將交易轉儲應用程式放到我們的漏斗頂部即可。這並不一定意味著我們能保證獲得新的融資租賃或新的 GMV。

We have to have a good process, we have to have a good customer experience. We have to treat the customer well and improve our product continually in order for those apps, especially new customers that are not familiar with LTO and maybe getting offered an LTO product when they're used to getting approved above us in the stack. That's a new customer challenge for us to get that conversion. So the macro is helping open up the top of the funnel. But our funnel optimization projects are really helping convert that into funded GMV.

我們必須有一個良好的流程，我們必須有良好的客戶體驗。我們必須善待客戶，不斷改進我們的產品，以便為這些應用程序，特別是那些不熟悉 LTO 的新客戶，當他們習慣於在堆疊中獲得高於我們的批准時，可能會獲得 LTO 產品。對我們來說，實現這項轉變是一個全新的客戶挑戰。因此宏觀層面正在幫助打開漏斗的頂部。但我們的通路優化項目確實有助於將其轉化為資金支持的 GMV。

And so we expect that will continue over time into '25 and potentially through '25. So that's going to be a help for a while. But as far as long term growth we can grow with our existing retailers, but we will need to and intend to add to the base.

因此，我們預計這種狀況將持續到2025年，甚至可能持續整個2025年。所以這在一段時間內會有幫助。但就長期成長而言，我們可以與現有零售商共同成長，但我們需要並打算擴大基礎。

Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thanks very much.

好的，太好了。這非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Thanks, Vincent.

謝謝，文森特。

Thank you. And I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Steve Michaels for any closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫邁克爾斯先生，請他做最後發言。

I'd like to, again thank you guys for joining us this morning and for your continued interest in Prog. Our teams are executing well, excited about our growth and ready to finish the year strong. We look forward to updating you again once this year has wrapped up. Have a great day.

我想再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們，並感謝你們對 Prog 的持續關注。我們的團隊表現良好，對我們的成長感到興奮，並準備強勢結束這一年。我們期待在今年結束後再次向您更新最新消息。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentleman that concludes our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。