PROG Holdings Inc (PRG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day. And thank you for standing by. Welcome to PROG Holdings fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

再會。感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, John Baugh, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我將會議移交給演講主持人、投資者關係副總裁約翰·鮑夫 (John Baugh)。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the PROG Holdings fourth quarter, 2024 earnings call. Joining me this morning are Steven Michaels, PROG Holdings President and Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Garner, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加 PROG Holdings 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上與我一起出席的還有 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steven Michaels 和我們的財務長 Brian Garner。

Many of you have already seen a copy of our earnings release issued this morning, which is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.progholdings.com.

你們中的許多人已經看到了我們今天早上發布的收益報告副本，該副本可在我們的投資者關係網站 investor.progholdings.com 上查閱。

During this call, certain statements we make will be forward-looking, including comments regarding our revised 2025 full year outlook and our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. The health of our portfolio and our expectations for write offs for our progressive leasing segment for the full year 2025, our expectations regarding GMV for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 and our capital allocation priorities including our ability to continue returning capital to shareholders.

在本次電話會議中，我們發表的某些聲明將具有前瞻性，包括有關我們修訂後的 2025 年全年展望和 2025 年第四季展望的評論。我們的投資組合的健康狀況、我們對 2025 年全年漸進式租賃部門註銷的預期、我們對第四季度和 2025 年全年 GMV 的預期以及我們的資本配置優先事項，包括我們繼續向股東返還資本的能力。

Listeners are cautioned not to place undue emphasis on forward-looking statements we make today, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

請聽眾不要過度強調我們今天所作的前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述都存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。

We undertake no obligation to update any such statements. On today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures including Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS which have been adjusted for certain items which may affect the comparability of our performance with other companies.

我們不承擔更新任何此類聲明的義務。在今天的電話會議上，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA 和非 GAAP EPS，這些指標已根據某些項目進行了調整，這可能會影響我們與其他公司的業績可比性。

These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release. The company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful insight into the company's operational performance and cash flows and provides these measures to investors to help facilitate comparisons of operating results with prior periods and to assist them in understanding the company's ongoing operational performance.

這些非公認會計準則指標在我們的收益報告中包含的對帳表中有詳細說明。該公司認為，這些非公認會計準則財務指標為了解公司的營運績效和現金流量提供了有意義的見解，並向投資者提供這些指標，以幫助他們比較與前期的營運結果，並幫助他們了解公司持續的營運績效。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Steven Michaels, PROG Holdings President and Chief Executive Officer. Steve?

接下來，我想將電話轉給 PROG Holdings 總裁兼執行長 Steven Michaels。史蒂夫？

Good morning and thank you for joining us as we review our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, which approximated the high end of the outlook we provided in late October.

早安，感謝您加入我們，回顧我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績，該業績接近我們在 10 月下旬提供的預期高端。

We will also share our insights into 2025 and discuss the strategic initiatives we are executing to drive sustainable growth in the years ahead. 2024 was a year of outstanding execution and resilience as we delivered better than expected GMV growth while effectively managing the lease portfolio and optimizing costs.

我們也將分享對 2025 年的見解，並討論我們為推動未來幾年可持續成長而實施的策略性舉措。 2024 年是執行力和韌性出色的一年，我們實現了好於預期的 GMV 成長，同時有效管理租賃組合併優化成本。

Progressive leasing's GMV grew 7.3% to $1.93 billion, driven by initiatives across sales, marketing, and technology and further supported by tighter approval rates from lenders higher up in the credit stack. Despite challenges in the broader retail environment, including the bankruptcy of a major retail partner in September, we again gained balance of share with key partners, onboarded new retail relationships and expanded our customer base through direct consumer marketing.

在銷售、行銷和技術等領域的舉措的推動下，Progressive leasing 的 GMV 成長了 7.3%，達到 19.3 億美元，並受到信貸層級較高貸款機構的批准率收緊的進一步支持。儘管零售環境整體面臨挑戰，包括9月份一家大型零售合作夥伴破產，但我們再次與主要合作夥伴取得了份額平衡，建立了新的零售關係，並透過直接消費者行銷擴大了客戶群。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on expanding customer acquisition, increasing lifetime value, and driving sustainable long-term growth. Progressive leasing's gross margin was lower in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by higher delinquencies, particularly within our new customer cohort, and a higher percentage of customers opting for 90-day purchase options.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於擴大客戶獲取、提高終身價值和推動永續的長期成長。2024 年，Progressive leasing 的毛利率低於 2023 年，原因是拖欠率較高（尤其是在我們的新客戶群中），以及選擇 90 天購買選項的客戶比例較高。

This comparison was made more difficult due to historically low levels of 90-day early purchase options and above average payment performance in 2023. That said, optimized decisioning and disciplined spending contributed to strong financial performance, with adjusted EBITDA for progressive leasing reaching 11.8% for full year 2024, well within our targeted annual range of 11% to 13%.

由於 90 天提前購買選項的水平歷史較低，且 2023 年的付款表現高於平均水平，因此這種比較變得更加困難。儘管如此，優化的決策和有紀律的支出有助於實現強勁的財務業績，漸進式租賃的調整後 EBITDA 在 2024 年全年達到 11.8%，遠低於我們 11% 至 13% 的目標年度範圍。

Pivoting to Q4, we are pleased with our performance as progressive leasing delivered a 9.1% year over year GMV growth reflecting consumer demand for our lease to own offering. We achieved these results despite ongoing demand challenges in the big-ticket consumer durable space where we believe our larger retail partners continue to have negative comps.

轉向第四季度，我們對我們的表現感到滿意，因為漸進式租賃實現了 9.1% 的 GMV 同比增長，反映了消費者對我們的租賃自有產品的需求。儘管我們認為高價耐用消費品領域的需求挑戰持續存在，我們的大型零售合作夥伴的表現仍然處於負增長狀態，但我們仍然取得了這些業績。

Q4 progressive leasing revenue grew 6.3%, driven by a larger lease portfolio balance entering the quarter, up 3.8% as of September 30, 2024, compared to being down 9.6% at the same time last year. Our portfolio performed in line with expected yields, and we successfully managed write-offs within our targeted 6% to 8% annual range.

第四季漸進式租賃收入成長 6.3%，這得益於本季開始前租賃組合餘額增加，截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日成長 3.8%，而去年同期則下降 9.6%。我們的投資組合表現符合預期收益率，並且我們成功地將註銷額控制在 6% 至 8% 的年目標範圍內。

However, Q4 2024 write-off came in at 7.9%, slightly above expectations. Due largely to higher delinquencies, including from new customer acquisitions. While new customer growth, which accelerated since Q2 2024, is a positive trend for long-term expansion, a portion of these customers exhibited higher delinquency rates, impacting portfolio performance in the quarter.

不過，2024 年第四季的註銷率為 7.9%，略高於預期。主要是由於拖欠率較高，包括新客戶收購造成的拖欠率。雖然自 2024 年第二季以來新客戶成長加速，對長期擴張來說是一個正面趨勢，但其中一部分客戶的拖欠率較高，影響了本季的投資組合表現。

As we gain deeper insights into this new customer cohort, our decisioning team continues to refine and optimize approval strategies in ways expected to ensure sustainable, profitable growth. As a result of the higher delinquencies, we implemented targeted tightening measures in Q4 2024 and again since the beginning of this year, which will create some headwinds to GMV in 2025.

隨著我們對這個新客戶群的了解越來越深入，我們的決策團隊將繼續改進和優化審批策略，以確保可持續的獲利成長。由於拖欠率較高，我們在 2024 年第四季以及今年年初實施了有針對性的緊縮措施，這將對 2025 年的 GMV 造成一些阻力。

At a consolidated level, Q4 adjusted EBITDA increased 7.7%. To 65.7 million and non-GAAP diluted EPS grew 11.1% to $0.80 per share, both of which were at the high end of the outlook we gave in October. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our growth initiatives, portfolio management, and operational efficiencies gained through cost reduction measures executed in Q1 2024.

綜合來看，第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長 7.7%。達到 6,570 萬，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益成長 11.1% 至每股 0.80 美元，這兩項數據均處於我們 10 月給出的預期高端。這些結果證明了我們的成長計畫、投資組合管理和透過 2024 年第一季實施的成本削減措施所獲得營運效率的有效性。

I am proud of our team's execution and confident in our ability to build on this momentum in 2025 and beyond. I'd like to highlight that our 2024 efforts resulted in a 6.1% increase in our gross leased asset balance, a significant improvement from the 5.2% decline at the start of 2024.

我為我們團隊的執行力感到自豪，並對我們在 2025 年及以後繼續保持這一勢頭的能力充滿信心。我想強調的是，我們 2024 年的努力使我們的總租賃資產餘額增加了 6.1%，與 2024 年初 5.2% 的下降相比有了顯著改善。

While we remain mindful of the headwinds ahead, we are optimistic about again achieving GMV growth in 2025 through effective execution and growth focused initiatives across sales, marketing, and technology. We will advance our three pillared strategy to grow, enhance and expand, positioning us for sustained success in the years ahead.

儘管我們仍然意識到未來的阻力，但我們對透過有效的執行和以銷售、行銷和技術為重點的成長舉措在 2025 年再次實現 GMV 成長充滿信心。我們將推進我們的三大支柱策略，以實現成長、增強和擴張，為未來幾年的持續成功做好準備。

Now I'd like to provide insight into a headwind considered in our 2025 outlook. One of our large retail partners, Big Lots, filed for bankruptcy protection in the second half of the year and commenced liquidation efforts in December.

現在，我想對我們在 2025 年展望中考慮的不利因素提供一些見解。我們的大型零售合作夥伴之一Big Lots在今年下半年申請破產保護，並於12月開始清盤工作。

We have accounted for this impact in our GMV projections which reflect approximately flat GMV for the first quarter. Additionally, I would like to point out the significant role our long-standing partnership with Big Lots has played in driving profitability.

我們在 GMV 預測中已經考慮了這一影響，反映出第一季的 GMV 基本上持平。此外，我想指出我們與Big Lots的長期合作關係在提高盈利能力方面發揮了重要作用。

Their high rate of repeat customers. Strong presence in the furniture category which typically carries higher margins and a customer base that skewed more heavily to baby boomers and Gen X all contributed to above average financial performance for the portion of Progressive leasing's portfolio originated through Big Lots. These factors will present margin headwinds in the near term as we adjust the shifts in our portfolio mix.

他們的回頭客率很高。家具類別的強勢存在通常具有更高的利潤率，且客戶群主要偏向嬰兒潮世代和X世代，所有這些都促使 Progressive leasing 的投資組合中透過 Big Lots 發起的部分財務業績高於平均水平。當我們調整投資組合的變化時，這些因素將在短期內對利潤率造成阻力。

Lastly, while our cost structure remains highly variable, the decrease in revenue due to the Big Lots, bankruptcy combined with our investments in marketing and technology to drive growth will result in slight SG&A deleverage for progressive leasing as a percentage of revenue in 2025.

最後，雖然我們的成本結構仍然變化很大，但由於Big Lots、破產導致的收入減少，加上我們為推動增長而在營銷和技術方面的投資，將導致2025年漸進式租賃佔收入的銷售、一般和行政費用略有去槓桿。

Despite these pressures, we remain committed to executing our initiatives and focusing on what we can control, including implementing marketing efforts to retain former customers of Big Lots within our broader network of retail partners.

儘管面臨這些壓力，我們仍然致力於執行我們的計劃並專注於我們能夠控制的事情，包括實施行銷努力以在我們更廣泛的零售合作夥伴網絡中留住Big Lots的老客戶。

We believe these actions will enable us to effectively address challenges and drive growth in 2025. Excluding the impact of Big Lots, we anticipate GMB growth in the high single digits across the rest of the progressive leasing business.

我們相信，這些行動將使我們能夠有效應對挑戰並在2025年推動成長。除去Big Lots的影響，我們預期GMB在其他漸進式租賃業務的成長率將達到高個位數。

Moving to strategy under our grow pillar, we remain focused on expanding our retail partnerships across regional and national markets, strengthening our direct consumer efforts and increasing e-commerce penetration.

轉向我們成長支柱下的策略，我們仍然專注於擴大我們在區域和國家市場的零售合作夥伴關係，加強我們的直接消費者努力並提高電子商務滲透率。

In 2024, we signed a long-term exclusive partnership with a large regional retail partner, and over the last two years we successfully renewed almost 70% of our progressive leasing GMV to multi-year exclusive contracts with approximately half of all GMV under contract into the 2030's.

2024 年，我們與一家大型區域零售合作夥伴簽署了長期獨家合作夥伴關係，在過去兩年中，我們成功地將近 70% 的漸進式租賃 GMV 續約為多年期獨家合同，其中約一半的 GMV 合同將持續到 2030 年代。

With these key renewals in place, we can continue to focus on deepening integrations and accelerating our initiative roadmap with these partners to drive future growth. For 2025, we also plan to make incremental investments in our marketing strategy which has a proven track record of driving customer acquisition and profitable GMV growth.

透過這些關鍵的續約，我們可以繼續專注於深化整合並加速與這些合作夥伴的計畫路線圖，以推動未來成長。到 2025 年，我們還計劃對我們的行銷策略進行增量投資，該策略在推動客戶獲取和盈利性 GMV 成長方面有著良好的記錄。

The initiatives include enhancing brand awareness. Expanding SEO to boost website effectiveness. Advancing personalized life cycle marketing. Launching PROG-branded campaigns within our partner ecosystem and strengthening direct consumer efforts through Prague Marketplace.

這些舉措包括提高品牌知名度。擴大SEO以提高網站有效性。推動個人化的生命週期行銷。在我們的合作夥伴生態系統內啟動 PROG 品牌活動，並透過布拉格市場加強直接消費者努力。

Our retail partners recognize the value of these marketing efforts which not only help acquire new customers but also re-engage and retain existing ones. One of the standout achievements in 2024 was the exceptional growth of our PROG Marketplace platform, which empowers customers to shop anytime, anywhere through our mobile app.

我們的零售合作夥伴認識到這些行銷活動的價值，它們不僅有助於吸引新客戶，而且還能重新吸引和留住現有客戶。2024 年最突出的成就之一是我們的 PROG Marketplace 平台的卓越成長，它使客戶能夠透過我們的行動應用程式隨時隨地購物。

The platform nearly tripled in GMV, far exceeding our 2024 goal of doubling year over year. As a complimentary channel to our retail partners, PROG Marketplace drives incremental traffic and sales while also fueling progressive leasing GMV through direct-to-consumer initiatives.

該平台的 GMV 增長了近兩倍，遠遠超過了我們 2024 年同比翻一番的目標。作為我們零售合作夥伴的免費管道，PROG Marketplace 推動了增量流量和銷售，同時也透過直接面向消費者的措施推動了漸進式租賃 GMV。

Looking ahead, we remain committed to further expanding this channel in 2025 with a goal of surpassing $75 million in GMV, reinforcing our multi-channel growth strategy and enhancing customer engagement. Under the enhanced pillar, our product and tech investments are focused on elevating the customer and retailer experiences.

展望未來，我們仍致力於在 2025 年進一步擴大該管道，目標是 GMV 超過 7500 萬美元，加強我們的多通路成長策略並增強客戶參與度。在增強的支柱下，我們的產品和技術投資專注於提升客戶和零售商體驗。

For customers, we are enhancing personalized web content, streamlining the application process. Improving how customers browse and shop for products and optimizing the lease life cycle experience. Our goal is to drive customer engagement, increase retention, and strengthen long-term relationships.

對於客戶，我們正在增強個人化的網路內容，簡化申請流程。改善客戶瀏覽和購買產品的方式並優化租賃生命週期體驗。我們的目標是推動客戶參與、提高留任率並加強長期關係。

Our ongoing efforts to enhance the customer experience combined with our marketing strategies resulted in an approximately 13% increase in new customers and 9% increase in reactivated customers for progressive leasing in 2024. While we maintained repeat customer contributions to GMV.

我們不斷努力提升客戶體驗，並結合我們的行銷策略，使得 2024 年漸進式租賃的新客戶數量增加了約 13%，重新啟動的客戶數量增加了 9%。同時我們保持了回頭客對GMV的貢獻。

As a reminder, we segment customer activity into three groups new, repeat, and reactivated. We define reactivated customers as previous customers that last funded the lease more than 24 months ago. This segmentation allows us to tailor our marketing strategies to each group's unique needs and behaviors.

提醒一下，我們將客戶活動分為三組：新客戶、重複客戶和重新啟動客戶。我們將重新啟用的客戶定義為上次支付租賃費用超過 24 個月的先前客戶。透過這種細分，我們能夠根據每個群體的獨特需求和行為來制定行銷策略。

For retail partners, we are investing in faster onboarding, expanded ways to acquire new customers, and self-service tools that provide deeper insights into the retail partners leased to own customers and help them better manage their LTO business. We believe these enhancements will drive business growth for our partners and strengthen long-term customer loyalty.

對於零售合作夥伴，我們正在投資更快的入職速度、擴大獲取新客戶的方式以及自助服務工具，以便更深入地了解租賃給自己客戶的零售合作夥伴，並幫助他們更好地管理其 LTO 業務。我們相信這些改進將推動合作夥伴的業務成長並增強長期客戶忠誠度。

Also under our enhanced pillar, PROG Labs, our R&D group, is driving innovation through generative AI to boost employee productivity and elevate both retailer and customer experiences. In 2024, we rolled out OpenAI's Enterprise chat GPT and developed AI-powered applications to streamline operations, increase efficiency, and free up internal resources to focus on higher value initiatives.

同樣在我們增強的支柱下，我們的研發團隊 PROG Labs 正在透過生成式人工智慧推動創新，以提高員工生產力並提升零售商和客戶的體驗。2024 年，我們推出了 OpenAI 的企業聊天 GPT，並開發了人工智慧應用程序，以簡化營運、提高效率並釋放內部資源以專注於更高價值的計劃。

This included an AI powered assistant for employees self-service on policies and benefits, as well as an AI-driven training platform that equips our sales team with retailer-specific materials, enhancing compliance and improving customer conversion rates.

其中包括一個人工智慧助手，幫助員工自助處理政策和福利，以及一個人工智慧驅動的培訓平台，為我們的銷售團隊提供針對零售商的材料，增強合規性並提高客戶轉換率。

To improve customer engagement, we introduced a generative AI-powered chat pilot in progressive leasing and launched the chatbot driven self-service experience for our PRG Ventures Money App cash advance product.

為了提高客戶參與度，我們在漸進式租賃中引入了生成式人工智慧聊天試點，並為我們的 PRG Ventures Money App 現金預付產品推出了由聊天機器人驅動的自助服務體驗。

These AI assistants help customers better understand our offerings, reduce friction in the user journey, and minimize reliance on the contact center for routine tasks. Encouraged by early results, we aim to expand these capabilities in 2025.

這些人工智慧助理可協助客戶更了解我們的產品，減少使用者旅程中的摩擦，並最大限度地減少對聯絡中心執行日常任務的依賴。受到早期成果的鼓舞，我們計劃在 2025 年擴展這些能力。

Looking ahead, we are committed to leveraging AI across multiple areas of our business to enhance the customer experience, personalize recommendations, and drive higher engagement, ultimately fueling GMV growth. Additionally, by improving employee productivity and reducing fraud, AI-driven efficiencies are expected to help us optimize servicing costs and strengthen operational performance.

展望未來，我們致力於在業務的多個領域利用人工智慧來增強客戶體驗、個人化推薦、提高參與度，最終推動 GMV 成長。此外，透過提高員工生產力和減少欺詐，人工智慧驅動的效率有望幫助我們優化服務成本並提高營運績效。

Under the expand pillar, our multi-product ecosystem empowers more customers on their financial journey. Our goal is to create meaningful value for customers by anticipating their needs and offering solutions that reduce friction in their financial experiences. This ecosystem is designed to increase customer lifetime value while also driving incremental GMV for progressive leasing through cross-selling opportunities.

在擴展支柱下，我們的多產品生態系統為更多客戶的金融旅程提供支援。我們的目標是透過預測客戶的需求並提供減少其金融體驗摩擦的解決方案來為客戶創造有意義的價值。此生態系統旨在提高客戶終身價值，同時透過交叉銷售機會推動漸進式租賃的增量 GMV。

Our other operations for reporting purposes, which includes two key entities within our ecosystem, made significant strides in 2024 towards achieving profitability, delivering an over 40% or $7 million improvement compared to 2023. This progress reflects our disciplined execution and the strong momentum within these businesses as we drive sustainable growth.

我們用於報告目的的其他業務（包括我們生態系統內的兩個關鍵實體）在 2024 年實現盈利方面取得了重大進展，與 2023 年相比增長了 40% 以上或 700 萬美元。這一進展反映了我們在推動永續成長過程中的嚴格執行和這些業務的強勁勢頭。

Four technologies, our buy now pay later solution, tripled its GMV in 2024, reaching just over $300 million. Ford's proprietary platform empowers shoppers with flexible payment options, allowing them to purchase merchandise through four interest-free installments. Shoppers use four to purchase furniture, clothing, electronics, health and beauty products, footwear, jewelry, and other consumer goods from retailers nationwide.

我們的「先買後付」解決方案 Four technologies 的 GMV 到 2024 年將成長兩倍，達到超過 3 億美元。福特的專有平台為購物者提供了靈活的付款方式，允許他們透過四次免息分期付款購買商品。購物者使用這款應用程式從全國各地的零售商購買家具、服裝、電子產品、保健和美容產品、鞋類、珠寶和其他消費品。

Entering 2025, we expect to scale 4 by more than doubling its GMV once again, further integrating it within our ecosystem and maximizing its contribution to our overall enterprise value. We continue to drive innovation through PRG Ventures, our division dedicated to developing and scaling new financial products that enhance our core leased owned business.

進入2025年，我們預計規模將達到4倍以上，GMV將再次成長一倍以上，進一步將其融入我們的生態系統，並最大限度地提高其對我們整體企業價值的貢獻。我們繼續透過 PRG Ventures 推動創新，我們的部門致力於開發和擴展新的金融產品，以增強我們的核心租賃業務。

Our ventures team introduced Bild, a personal credit building product, and the Money App, which provides short term cash advances in 2023. In 2024, Money App made significant strides. We successfully launched a mobile app. Expanded our unique customer base year to year. Piloted an AI powered chatbot for automated customer support and achieved unit level profitability in Q4.

我們的創投團隊在 2023 年推出了個人信用建設產品 Bild 和提供短期現金預付的 Money App。2024年，Money App取得了重大進展。我們成功推出了一款行動應用程式。我們的獨立客戶群逐年擴大。試用人工智慧聊天機器人來實現自動化客戶支持，並在第四季度實現了單位級盈利。

Looking ahead to 2025, we are focused on growing and improving the credit builder product on a new proprietary tech stack and driving further expansion of our cash advance program. Our goal remains the same, to provide innovative financial solutions that empower our customers and increase customer lifetime value.

展望 2025 年，我們專注於在新的專有技術堆疊上發展和改進信用建設產品，並推動我們的現金預付計劃的進一步擴展。我們的目標始終不變，那就是提供創新的金融解決方案，為客戶提供助力並提高客戶終身價值。

While Brian will provide more detail on our 2025 outlook, I'd like to share our perspective on the macroeconomic backdrop as we enter the year. Similar to the past two years, financial pressures remain a challenge for our consumers.

雖然 Brian 將提供有關我們 2025 年展望的更多細節，但我想分享我們對今年宏觀經濟背景的看法。與過去兩年類似，財務壓力仍然是我們消費者面臨的挑戰。

While the rate of inflation eased some in 2024, household budgets are strained by a higher cost of living for necessities such as housing, utilities, and food. As always, we maintain a dynamic decisioning posture supported by a short four-to-six-week feedback cycle allowing us to swiftly adjust to customer and portfolio health trends.

雖然 2024 年通貨膨脹率下降，但住房、水電和食品等必需品的生活成本上漲仍給家庭預算帶來壓力。像往常一樣，我們保持動態的決策態勢，並透過四到六週的短暫回饋週期提供支持，使我們能夠迅速適應客戶和投資組合的健康趨勢。

Our proprietary machine learning decision models continuously refine our approval rates and amounts, ensuring we remain agile and responsive to market conditions. While the bankruptcy of a large retail partner, broader retail challenges, particularly in jewelry, furniture, appliance, and electronics categories and financial pressures on our customers, impact near-term results, we believe these are manageable headwinds.

我們專有的機器學習決策模型不斷完善我們的批准率和金額，確保我們保持敏捷並對市場狀況做出回應。雖然大型零售合作夥伴的破產、更廣泛的零售挑戰（特別是珠寶、家具、家電和電子產品類別的挑戰）以及客戶面臨的財務壓力影響了近期業績，但我們認為這些都是可控的不利因素。

We will navigate these challenges through expansion with existing retail partners and new business development. Our pipeline remains strong, and we are actively executing on strategies to drive growth and strengthen our market position.

我們將透過與現有零售合作夥伴的擴張和新業務的開發來應對這些挑戰。我們的產品線依然強勁，我們正在積極執行策略來推動成長並加強我們的市場地位。

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We expect to reinvest in the business, pursue targeted M&A opportunities. And return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We believe our business will generate meaningful free cash flow in 2025, providing us with the flexibility to invest in growth initiatives as well as return excess cash to shareholders.

我們的資本配置重點維持不變。我們希望對該業務進行再投資，尋求有針對性的併購機會。並透過股利和股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。我們相信，我們的業務將在 2025 年產生有意義的自由現金流，為我們提供靈活性，以投資成長計劃並向股東返還多餘的現金。

As mentioned earlier, our reinvestment strategy focuses on initiatives of progressive leasing as well as expanding our buy now pay later business four. In summary, 2024 was a successful year as we delivered growth across both our national and regional businesses.

如前所述，我們的再投資策略著重於漸進式租賃措施以及擴大我們的先買後付業務。總而言之，2024 年是成功的一年，因為我們在全國和地區業務方面都實現了成長。

We gained balance of share with key retail partners and onboarded new retailer relationships. We invested in sales, marketing, and technology that drove growth in 2024 and positioned us for success in 2025 and beyond.

我們與主要零售合作夥伴取得了份額平衡，並建立了新的零售商關係。我們投資了銷售、行銷和技術，推動了 2024 年的成長，並為 2025 年及以後的成功奠定了基礎。

We made excellent progress on our multi-product ecosystem strategy and demonstrated the value of our cross-selling opportunities. I'm extremely proud of the team for their dedication and execution, and I look forward to building on this momentum in 2025.

我們在多產品生態系統策略上取得了顯著進展，並展示了交叉銷售機會的價值。我為團隊的奉獻精神和執行力感到非常自豪，並期待在 2025 年繼續保持這一勢頭。

'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Brian Garner for more details on Q4 results and 2025 Outlook. Brian?

現在將電話轉給我們的財務長 Brian Garner，以了解有關第四季度業績和 2025 年展望的更多詳細資訊。布賴恩？

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早安。

I will begin with a summary of our Q4 highlights. We are pleased to report that we delivered impressive GMV growth as revenues, adjusted net earnings, and non-GAAP EPS approximated the high end of our outlook. As Steve mentioned, 2024 was a successful year marked by better-than-expected GMV growth, a portfolio managed within our annual 68% write off target, and a disciplined approach to cost management.

我將首先總結我們第四季的亮點。我們很高興地報告，我們實現了令人矚目的 GMV 成長，因為營收、調整後淨收益和非 GAAP EPS 接近我們預期的高端。正如史蒂夫所提到的，2024 年是成功的一年，其特點是 GMV 成長優於預期、投資組合管理符合我們年度 68% 的註銷目標，以及嚴謹的成本管理方法。

The effect of execution by our teams implementing multiple strategic initiatives as well as favorable macroeconomic conditions, including the tightening of the credit supply above us, allowed us to deliver strong results for the business.

我們團隊實施的多項策略措施以及有利的宏觀經濟條件（包括信貸供應的收緊）的執行效果使我們能夠為業務帶來強勁的業績。

Moving to Q4 results. Beginning with the progressive leasing segment, Q4 GMV grew 9.1% year over year as we improved our balance of share within key retail partners driven in part by tighter integrations with the retailers and reduced friction in the application process.

轉向第四季業績。從漸進式租賃部門開始，第四季度的 GMV 年比增長 9.1%，因為我們改善了與主要零售合作夥伴的份額平衡，部分原因是與零售商的整合更加緊密，申請過程中的摩擦減少。

The GMV in the period contributed to an increase in portfolio size, which ended the year up 6.1%. Revenues for progressive leasing grew 6.3%, primarily due to larger portfolio size throughout the quarter, aided by 9.1% growth in the fourth quarter GMV.

該期間的 GMV 推動了投資組合規模的增加，年底成長了 6.1%。漸進式租賃的營收成長了 6.3%，這主要歸功於整個季度的投資組合規模擴大，以及第四季 GMV 成長 9.1%。

As Steve mentioned, customer payment performance was slightly more challenged than we expected. And 90-day early purchases remained elevated in Q4 compared to historic lows in 2023. We saw an increase in the percentage of new customers who, as we expected, have lower financial performance compared to our repeat customer base and are more likely to opt for a 90-day purchase option.

正如史蒂夫所提到的，客戶付款表現比我們預期的要困難一些。與 2023 年的歷史最低點相比，第四季 90 天提前購買量仍然較高。我們發現新客戶的比例有所增加，正如我們預期的那樣，與回頭客群相比，他們的財務表現較低，並且更有可能選擇 90 天的購買選項。

As a result, Q4 2024 gross margin for progressive leasing of 31.9% was 100 basis points lower than the same period last year. Our provisions for leased merchandise write-offs for Q4 were 7.9%, bringing full your write-offs to 7.5%. Both of which were within our stated 68% annual target. Q4 2024 write-offs at 7.9% were higher than our expectations as delinquencies increased modestly in Q4, which combined with our accelerating portfolio growth led to an increase in write-offs.

因此，2024 年第四季漸進租賃的毛利率為 31.9%，比去年同期低 100 個基點。我們第四季的租賃商品註銷準備金為 7.9%，使總註銷率達到 7.5%。這兩項目標均符合我們所訂定的 68% 年度目標。2024 年第四季的核銷率為 7.9%，高於我們的預期，因為第四季拖欠率略有增加，再加上我們投資組合的加速成長，導致核銷率增加。

Our team is proactively making adjustments to our dynamic decisioning models, which have included targeted tightening measures in Q4 2024 and again since the beginning of the year as we aim to deliver write-offs of 2025 within our targeted annual range of 68%.

我們的團隊正在積極調整我們的動態決策模型，其中包括在 2024 年第四季以及今年年初再次採取有針對性的緊縮措施，因為我們的目標是在 68% 的年度目標範圍內實現 2025 年的註銷。

Progressive leasing's SG&A expense was $82.4 million a decrease of approximately $1.3 million or 1.5% compared to $83.7 million in the same quarter last year. As a percentage of revenue, SG&A decreased by 111 basis points year over year from 15% of our revenues in Q4 of 2023 to 13.9% of our revenues in Q4 of 2024.

Progressive leasing 的銷售、一般及行政費用為 8,240 萬美元，較去年同期的 8,370 萬美元減少約 130 萬美元，降幅為 1.5%。作為收入的百分比，銷售、一般及行政費用年減 111 個基點，從 2023 年第四季的 15% 下降到 2024 年第四季的 13.9%。

This SG&A improvement largely benefited from restructuring actions taken in Q1 of 2024 combined with revenue growth. We are always seeking to drive operational efficiencies while maintaining critical investments in growth initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA progressive leasing in Q4 was $65.8 million and 11.1% of revenue.

銷售、一般及行政開支的改善主要受益於 2024 年第一季採取的重組措施以及收入成長。我們始終致力於提高營運效率，同時保持對成長計畫的關鍵投資。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 累進租賃為 6,580 萬美元，佔營收的 11.1%。

This Adjusted EBITDA margin reflects a 70basis point decline compared to 11.8% in Q4 of 2023, primarily due to higher 98 purchase options and lower customer payment performance partially offset by SG&A restructuring and discipline throughout the year.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與 2023 年第四季的 11.8% 相比下降了 70 個基點，這主要是由於 98 個購買選項增加和客戶支付績效下降，但全年的銷售、一般和行政管理費用重組和紀律部分抵消了這一影響。

Pivoting to consolidating results, Q4 non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.80 at the top end of our outlook. Solid revenues rose 8% to $623.3 million, primarily fueled by the growth within the progressive leasing segment, followed by the great momentum in our for business that Steve mentioned.

綜合來看，第四季非 GAAP 每股盈餘達到我們預期的最高值 0.80 美元。穩健的營收成長 8%，達到 6.233 億美元，這主要得益於漸進式租賃部門的成長，其次是史蒂夫提到的我們業務的強勁發展勢頭。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 7.7% from $61 million to $65.7 million driven by the improvement of profitability of Four and PRG ventures. Moving to the balance sheet, we enter the fourth quarter of 2024 with $95.7 million of cash and gross debt of $650 million resulting in a net leverage ratio of 2 times trailing 12 months of just.

調整後 EBITDA 從 6,100 萬美元成長 7.7% 至 6,570 萬美元，這得益於 Four 和 PRG 合資企業獲利能力的提高。轉向資產負債表，我們進入 2024 年第四季度，現金為 9,570 萬美元，總債務為 6.5 億美元，導致過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率僅為 2 倍。

At the end of 2024, we had $50 million of outstanding borrowings on our $350 million dollar revolver which we fully repaid by the end of January 2025. Our business continues to demonstrate strong profitability and cash flow generation. In 2024 we generated$138.5 million cash from operations.

截至 2024 年底，我們的 3.5 億美元循環信貸中有 5,000 萬美元未償還借款，我們已於 2025 年 1 月底全額償還。我們的業務持續展現出強勁的獲利能力和現金流創造能力。2024 年，我們的營運現金流為 1.385 億美元。

As part of our ongoing commitment to return excess capital to shareholders, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share in November and actively repurchase shares. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 860,000 shares at a weighted average price of $47 per share, bringing our total repurchases in 2024, $3.5 million shares at an average price of $39.80 per share.

作為我們持續承諾向股東返還過剩資本的一部分，我們在 11 月支付了每股 0.12 美元的季度現金股息，並積極回購股票。在本季度，我們以每股 47 美元的加權平均價格回購了約 86 萬股，使我們 2024 年的總回購量達到 350 萬股，平均價格為每股 39.80 美元。

We currently have $361.4 million remaining under our $500 million share repurchase program. We remain committed to capital allocation strategy that balances strategic investments with meaningful shareholder returns.

我們的 5 億美元股票回購計畫目前剩餘 3.614 億美元。我們將繼續致力於平衡策略投資與有意義的股東回報的資本配置策略。

I'll now touch on some key aspects of our 2025 outlook as outlined in this morning's earnings press release. We're entering 2025 with progressive leasing's gross lease asset balance up 6.1% year over year. This portfolio growth combined with our expectations that Ford will more than double its GMV should support consolidated revenue expansion in a low to mid-single digits.

現在，我將談談我們今天早上的收益新聞稿中概述的 2025 年展望的一些關鍵方面。進入 2025 年，漸進式租賃的總租賃資產餘額將年增 6.1%。這一投資組合的成長，加上我們對福特 GMV 將增加一倍以上的預期，應該可以支持合併收入實現低至中等個位數的成長。

However, we anticipate some GMV headwinds for progressive leasing, reflecting the impact of the Big Lots bankruptcy, expected macroeconomic challenges, and lower approval rates year over year. Specifically, first quarter progressive GMV is expected to be roughly flat year over year. However, excluding Big Lots GMV results from both periods, GMV growth for the rest of the business is expected to be in the high single digits.

然而，我們預計漸進式租賃的 GMV 將面臨一些阻力，這反映了 Big Lots 破產的影響、預期的宏觀經濟挑戰以及逐年下降的批准率。具體來說，預計第一季的漸進式 GMV 將與去年同期基本持平。然而，除去兩個時期的Big Lots GMV結果，其餘業務的GMV成長預計將達到高個位數。

Our portfolio performance is expected to remain within targeted yields as we actively manage decisioning dynamics. However, progressive's gross margin will face a difficult comparison during the year as we work through higher delinquency rates exiting 2024 and the diminishing impact of the big loss portfolio, which had an above average profitability profile.

由於我們積極管理決策動態，我們的投資組合表現預計將保持在目標收益範圍內。然而，隨著我們考慮2024年後更高的拖欠率和盈利狀況高於平均水平的巨額虧損組合的影響逐漸減弱，進步公司的毛利率在今年將面臨困難的比較。

We anticipate resolution provision for leased merchandise write-offs to deliver another year of consistent performance within our targeted annual range of 68%. Progress SG&A expense is expected to be leveraged slightly year over year as we continue investing in the business.

我們預計租賃商品註銷的解決方案將使我們在 68% 的年度目標範圍內再實現一年的穩定表現。隨著我們繼續對該業務進行投資，Progress 的銷售、一般及行政開支預計將較上年略有下降。

We remain committed to driving efficiency by eliminating unnecessary costs and taking a portfolio approach to cost management, ensuring that we prioritize initiatives to optimize return on investment. Turning to the consolidated outlook for 2025, we expect revenues to be in the range of $2.52 billion to $2.59 billion Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $260 million to $280 million and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $3.10 $3.50.

我們將繼續致力於透過消除不必要的成本並採取組合方式進行成本管理來提高效率，確保我們優先考慮優化投資回報的措施。展望 2025 年的綜合展望，我們預計營收在 25.2 億美元至 25.9 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 2.6 億美元至 2.8 億美元之間，非 GAAP EPS 在 3.10 至 3.50 美元之間。

This outlook assumes a difficult operating environment with soft demand for consumer durable goods, no material changes in the company's decisioning posture, an effective tax rate for non-GAAP EPS of approximately 20%. No material increase in the unemployment rate for our consumer and no impact from additional share repurchases.

這項展望假設經營環境艱難，對耐用消費品的需求疲軟，公司的決策態勢沒有重大變化，非公認會計準則每股收益的有效稅率約為 20%。我們的消費者失業率沒有實質增加，額外的股票回購也沒有產生影響。

In closing, I want to thank our employees for delivering outstanding results despite a challenging and evolving consumer environment. Their dedication and execution will drive our success, and I look forward to a great 2025.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工，儘管面臨充滿挑戰和不斷變化的消費環境，他們仍然取得了出色的成績。他們的奉獻精神和執行力將推動我們的成功，我期待 2025 年的輝煌。

I will now turn the call back over to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call, operator.

我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以便進行電話的問答部分。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指令）

Our first question comes from the line of Kyle Joseph with Jefferies LLC, your line is now open.

我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies LLC 的 Kyle Joseph，您的電話現在已經開通。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just want to pick your Brian, obviously we've seen a number of bankruptcies in the furniture space, and some shake out for that industry and obviously it's been a challenging time. Just want to get your sense for, how you see the industry evolving over time and implications for the VLTO sector. Does it become kind of more of an online industry or, what's the shake out from all this?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是想問布萊恩，顯然我們已經看到家具業出現了許多破產案例，一些企業也遭遇了困境，顯然這是一個充滿挑戰的時期。只是想了解您如何看待這個行業隨著時間的推移而發展以及對 VLTO 領域的影響。它會變得更像一個線上產業，或者這一切會帶來什麼後果？

Yeah, Kyle, good morning. Yeah, I mean that's a difficult crystal ball. There's certainly been some challenges, as is well documented coming out of the pandemic and soft demand in that space and clearly.

是的，凱爾，早安。是的，我的意思是這是一個難以預測的水晶球。確實存在一些挑戰，正如有據可查的，疫情和該領域的需求疲軟顯然存在一些挑戰。

Depending on the capital and the balance sheet of the provider, the fixed costs of having a lot of stores can be difficult, but there's been some supply, or some op stores leaving the system, so, I would expect that the demand that is out there will be spread across the remaining players.

根據提供者的資本和資產負債表，擁有大量商店的固定成本可能會很困難，但已經有一些供應，或者一些營運商店離開了系統，因此，我預計那裡的需求將分攤到剩下的參與者身上。

I mean, overall, all categories are shifting more online. But I don't think I would not say that our call is that stores are going away. Stores are still going to be an important part of the omnichannel experience for our customers and shopping generally as it relates to VLTO specifically.

我的意思是，總體而言，所有類別都在更多地轉向線上。但我認為我不會說我們的呼籲是商店將消失。商店仍然將成為我們客戶全通路體驗和購物的重要組成部分，因為它與 VLTO 具體相關。

we're going to TRY and be where the customer is and if the customer navigates online, we'll be there for them, but it's our expectation or mine personally that it will continue to be a multi-channel journey for the customers and so we need to have a good solution across those channels in store and online.

我們將盡力出現在客戶身邊，如果客戶在線，我們也會為他們提供服務，但我們或我個人的期望是，客戶將繼續享受多通路的旅程，因此，我們需要一個好的解決方案，涵蓋實體店和線上通路。

Got it. And then, yeah, in terms of the guidance factors, I think you guys talked about expectations for demand to. Remain weak. I mean, if you, peel back the onion a little bit, obviously furniture is facing some headwinds, but are you seeing any sort, any verticals where you're seeing kind of signs of life?

知道了。是的，就指導因素而言，我認為你們談到了對需求的預期。保持弱勢。我的意思是，如果你稍微剝開一層薄膜，你會發現家具業顯然面臨一些阻力，但你是否看到任何垂直領域出現了生命跡象？

Yeah, signs of life is an interesting phrase because I think I said last quarter that less bad is the new up and you know we're continuing to kind of track that. We talked to our retailers. We're fortunate to partner with some, world class retailers and some of the largest in the country, and we talk to them, and they certainly have operator optimism, but no one's really calling for gangbuster results this year

是的，「生命跡象」是一個有趣的短語，因為我想我上個季度就說過，不那麼糟糕的情況是新的上升趨勢，你知道我們會繼續追蹤這一點。我們與零售商進行了交談。我們很幸運能與一些世界級零售商和國內最大的零售商合作，我們和他們交談過，他們當然對運營商抱持樂觀態度，但沒有人真正期待今年能取得巨大成果

So we continue to wait for that replacement cycle to kick in on certain categories. You might see some signs of life in consumer electronics, and we've had a pretty good run-in mobile phone, smartphones, which didn't really wane that much even post pandemic.

因此，我們繼續等待某些類別的替換週期開始。您可能會看到消費性電子產品中出現了一些復甦的跡象，而且我們的手機和智慧型手機市場表現相當不錯，即使在疫情過後，其銷量也沒有下降那麼多。

So the categories are still tough, but we're really proud of the fact that we've grown through that and gained balance of share and become more important and better partners for our retailers even in the face of those tough comps.

因此，這些類別仍然很艱難，但我們真的很自豪，因為我們已經度過了這些艱難的時期，獲得了份額的平衡，並且即使面對艱難的競爭，我們也成為零售商更重要、更好的合作夥伴。

Great, thanks. And then just one last one for me as we work through tax refund season. I think it was 2 years ago if I'm not mistaken, where you guys saw less early buyout activity but good credit performance through tax refund season just give us a sense of, how things are trending in terms of early buyouts versus, credit performance as we work through, tax refund season this year and what I've heard so far is that it's a relatively normal tax refund season, whatever that means these days.

太好了，謝謝。在我們正值退稅季之際，對我來說，還有最後一個問題。如果我沒記錯的話，我想那是兩年前了，那時早期收購活動較少，但退稅季的信用表現良好，這讓我們了解了今年退稅季早期收購與信用表現的趨勢，到目前為止，我聽到的是，這是一個相對正常的退稅季，不管這意味著什麼。

Whatever that means, that's the way to wrap it up. We're not really commenting on Q1 so far, and we've read, a lot of the reports on tax, on the tax season and how it might, the average refund might be up, but it's the big drop. There'll be there'll be a decent drop today.

無論這意味著什麼，這就是結束的方式。到目前為止，我們還沒有對第一季發表任何評論，我們已經閱讀了很多關於稅收、稅收季節的報告，以及平均退稅額可能會增加，但這是一個很大的下降。今天將會有明顯下降。

Actually tomorrow because of the President's Day holiday. It'll be a big drop tomorrow, but we are anticipating the big one to be a week from today. And so we really won't have a lot of visibility into how the tax season's going to play out for another several weeks. But I think what you said is right, we're anticipating an air quotes normal tax season.

其實是明天，因為是總統日假期。明天降幅將很大，但我們預計降幅最大的將是一週後。因此，在接下來的幾週內，我們無法準確預測納稅季的進展。但我認為你說的是對的，我們預計航空報價正常的稅收季節。

Great, thanks very much. For answering my question.

太好了，非常感謝。回答我的問題。

Thanks. Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的鮑比格里芬 (Bobby Griffin)。您的線路現已開通。

Good morning. This is Alessandra Jimenez on for Bobby Griffin. Thank you for taking our questions. First, I just wanted to hit on the 2025 revenue guidance a little bit more and some of the puts and takes there versus the strong GMV reported in 2024. Can you give a little bit more color on the applied Big Lots drag to top 2025 line for the full year? And then are there any other headwinds you're including in the outlook?

早安.這是 Bobby Griffin 的亞歷山德拉希門尼斯 (Alessandra Jimenez)。感謝您回答我們的問題。首先，我只想再多談 2025 年的營收預期，以及與 2024 年報告的強勁 GMV 相比的一些優缺點。您能否更詳細地介紹 Big Lots 對 2025 年全年線的應用阻力？那麼，您在展望中還提到了其他什麼不利因素嗎？

Yeah, let me start with Big Lots, and we talked about it in the prepared remarks, obviously. I think that the takeaway from a GMV standpoint is that we said that in Q1 we don't guide the full year GMV. Obviously, there's a GMV expectation embedded in our revenue guide, but we don't guide the full year GMV. But we did say in Q1.

是的，讓我先談談 Big Lots，顯然，我們在準備好的演講中談到了這個問題。我認為從 GMV 的角度來看，我們在第一季沒有預測全年 GMV。顯然，我們的收入指南中包含了 GMV 預期，但我們不會預測全年 GMV。但我們在第一季確實說過。

We expected to have flattish GMV, but one Big Lots from both periods, it would be up high single digits. So just to do a little math for you to make it easier, if you were to do the math on, depending on your definition of high singles, you do the math, it's kind of like a mid-30s GMV number for the quarter and big odds did not have a tremendous amount of seasonality due to it wasn't really a holiday type furniture retailer, so for us, at least not in the in the furniture category.

我們預計 GMV 將保持平穩，但兩個時期的 GMV 都會大幅成長，達到個位數。因此，為了讓您更容易理解，我只需做一點數學題，如果您進行計算，則取決於您對高單數的定義，計算結果有點像本季度 30 年代中期的 GMV 數字，而且很可能沒有大量的季節性，因為它並不是真正的假日型家具零售商，所以對我們來說，至少不在家具類別中。

So it's pretty safe to annualize that number so you can kind of get into the $135million to $150 million GMV range. And You know that's obviously a big number to replace so and I'll remind everybody that when we talked in October that was not the expected disposition of big lots at that time we expected that there was a sale process that would go through and they were going to successfully exit bankruptcy, having been purchased and having about 900 profitable stores.

因此，將該數字按年化計算是相當安全的，這樣您的 GMV 就可以達到 1.35 億美元到 1.5 億美元的範圍。你知道，這顯然是一個很大的數字，所以我要提醒大家，當我們在 10 月談論的時候，這並不是當時預期的大宗商品處置方式，我們預計會有一個銷售流程，他們將成功擺脫破產，被收購並擁有大約 900 家盈利商店。

And so you know expectations were set based on that, and all of that changed the week before Christmas when that sale fell through and they went to a liquidation proceeding. So there's a decent amount of updating that needs to happen as it relates to the plan.

所以你知道，預期是基於此而設定的，而這一切都在聖誕節前一周發生了改變，當時那筆銷售失敗，他們進入了清算程序。因此，需要進行與該計劃相關的大量更新。

So the pre-Christmas change put a hole in our 2025 plan that we had to adjust to, but we're super proud that we're still planning on growing GMV in 2025 and view that as a one-time event that doesn't really change anything about the potential or trajectory of the or our excitement about the business.

因此，聖誕節前的變化為我們的 2025 年計劃帶來了漏洞，我們不得不做出調整，但我們非常自豪，我們仍然計劃在 2025 年實現 GMV 成長，並將其視為一次性事件，它不會真正改變我們對業務的潛力或軌跡或興奮感。

So as far as revenue goes, we're not really guiding that, but you have your models on how GMV translates, and I think that should be helpful color.

因此，就收入而言，我們實際上並沒有指導這一點，但您有關於 GMV 如何轉化的模型，我認為這應該會有所幫助。

Okay, that's really helpful. And then just for simplicity purposes, there was there a minimal impact from Big Lots to Q4, so we should expect kind of an analyze basis for the next four quarters.

好的，這確實很有幫助。然後，為了簡單起見，Big Lots 對第四季度的影響很小，因此我們應該預期接下來的四個季度會有某種分析基礎。

Yeah, we had, I mean, we didn't have a full quarter in fourth quarter, I would say, because they had closed some stores, but yeah, I think annualizing those numbers I gave are, that's pretty safe.

是的，我的意思是，我們的第四季度沒有一個完整的季度，因為他們關閉了一些商店，但是，是的，我認為將我給出的這些數字按年化，這是相當安全的。

Okay, that's helpful. And then second for me, I wanted to follow up on current customer behavior trends. Have you seen any incremental material change in existing customer behavior, or is it primarily on those new customers, and is it from, the bottom of the funnel customers, any kind of clarity there?

好的，這很有幫助。其次，對我來說，我想跟進當前的客戶行為趨勢。您是否看到現有客戶行為發生了任何漸進的實質變化，或者主要發生在新客戶身上，還是來自漏斗底部的客戶，有任何明確的改變嗎？

I would say that there's certainly some stress out there, right? I mean, clearly credit providers generally saw things in their own data during 2024 that gave them reason to tighten, and we're not immune from those trends and in some ways.

我想說肯定存在一些壓力，對嗎？我的意思是，很明顯，信貸提供者在 2024 年通常會在自己的數據中看到一些事情，這給了他們收緊信貸的理由，而且在某些方面，我們也無法免受這些趨勢的影響。

we see them earlier than those that serve people higher up in the stack. And we are seeing and observing pockets of stress out there and as you said, it's kind of on the bottom end of that, of our portfolio that they have liquidity pressures and those things of. Ended up having our delinquencies a little bit higher.

我們比那些為高層人員提供服務的人更早看到它們。我們看到並觀察到存在一些壓力，正如你所說，我們的投資組合處於最底端，存在流動性壓力之類的問題。最終我們的拖欠率有所上升。

Now there's also a dynamic related to the new customer cohort and their performance. As it's more difficult to decision a new customer. We have tons of data elements that we can pull, and we do, but there's no more predictive data element than having past performance and payment behavior from that customer with a repeat customer

現在還存在著與新客戶群及其表現相關的動態。因為決定新客戶更加困難。我們有大量的數據元素可供利用，但沒有任何數據元素比回頭客的過往表現和支付行為更具預測性

So we're seeing some stress at the bottom end. We're pleased and happy with the expansion of our new customer base, but there's, kind of a near term impact on that as we as we figure out the new customers that will turn into profitable repeat customers and we're our delinquencies are a little higher than they had been in the previous, in the past year, and we're taking, the appropriate decisioning actions to address those things.

因此我們看到底端存在一些壓力。我們對新客戶群的擴大感到高興和高興，但這在短期內會產生影響，因為我們正在確定哪些新客戶將成為有利可圖的回頭客，而且我們的拖欠率比去年略高，我們正在採取適當的決策行動來解決這些問題。

Okay, thank you. I'll turn it over back to you guys.

好的，謝謝。我會把它交還給你們。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hoang Nguyen with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Hoang Nguyen。您的線路現已開通。

Thanks for taking my question. I want to dig a little bit deeper into the big lot assumptions. I know, I think they sold, I guess 200 to 400 stores to another partner. I mean, is there any assumptions around those stores that they are keeping? I mean, are they outperforming stores versus, the stores that they are closing, and, are you assuming maybe any, one time boost in volume from close out sales and they have a follow up?

感謝您回答我的問題。我想更深入地探討一下大批量假設。我知道，我想他們已經把 200 到 400 家商店賣給了另一個合作夥伴。我的意思是，他們對於保留的那些商店有什麼假設嗎？我的意思是，與他們正在關閉的商店相比，他們的表現是否更好？

Yeah, I'll start with the end. I mean, the closeout sales started in in December, and are, I guess wrapping up as we speak, depending on the store. We didn't really see a boost in volume related to those going out of business sales. There was, I would say, spotty inventory positions across the stores, and they were very clear that they were final sales and no returns and exchanges and things of that nature, so we didn't see much there.

是的，我就從結尾開始說。我的意思是，清倉銷售從 12 月就開始了，我想現在就快結束了，具體時間取決於商店的情況。我們確實沒有看到與停業銷售相關的銷售成長。我想說的是，各家商店的庫存情況都參差不齊，而且他們明確表示這是最終銷售，不接受退貨、換貨或類似的事情，所以我們沒有看到太多這樣的情況。

On the disposition of the potential of 200 to 400 stores, we're in contact with our counterparts over there, Big Lots. It's unclear to us as we sit here today what stores will survive and what their approach to actually carrying furniture will be. So I will tell you that in our assumptions we're not planning on. Having volume from Big Lots after, early this month.

關於200到400家商店的潛力，我們正在與那裡的同行Big Lots進行聯繫。我們今天坐在這裡，尚不清楚哪些商店能夠生存下來，以及它們實際運輸家具的方式是什麼。所以我會告訴你，在我們的假設中我們沒有計劃。本月初之後，我從 Big Lots 獲得了交易量。

If it turns out that they have 200 plus stores you know in a region of the country that are serving furniture, we will certainly partner with them and that might be a little bit of upside, but that's not in our base case. I want to stress because I've talked to investors about this over the last year or so that.

如果事實證明他們在某個地區擁有超過 200 家供應家具的商店，我們肯定會與他們合作，這可能會帶來一些好處，但這不是我們的基本情況。我想強調這一點，因為在過去一年左右的時間裡我已經與投資者討論過這個問題。

The one of the great, one of the good things about our, kind of sophistication and evolution over the last several years is our ability to communicate and target our repeat customers, and I mentioned in the prepared remarks that Big Lot since it had been a partner of ours for a long time, over a dozen years, we had a lot of repeat customers.

我們在過去幾年中不斷成熟和發展，其中最偉大、最美好的事情之一就是我們與回頭客進行溝通和鎖定回頭客的能力。

So There's a big opportunity for us to target those and redirect those consumers into other retail partners that we partner with, and we do, we've already started doing that. We've had some early success. We intend to do that throughout the year, but we will not replace the GMV dollar for dollar this year because the repeat. The cadence of a repeat customer for us is, it can be within a year, but a lot of times it's on average about 18 months.

因此，我們有很大的機會瞄準這些消費者，並將他們引導至我們合作的其他零售夥伴，而我們已經開始這樣做了。我們已取得一些早期成功。我們打算全年都這樣做，但今年我們不會用一美元來取代 GMV，因為會重複。對我們來說，回頭客的節奏可能是一年之內，但很多時候平均約 18 個月。

So over time we intend to keep those customers in the Prague ecosystem and have that inert to the benefit of our other retail partners, but it's not something that's going to happen like this quarter or next quarter to replace that GMV.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們打算將這些客戶留在布拉格生態系統中，並為我們的其他零售合作夥伴帶來利益，但這不會像本季度或下個季度那樣發生來取代 GMV。

Thank you for the details and maybe on the margin you mentioned that there's going to be some margin headwinds in the short term. I mean, we saw 2024 margin contracting versus 2023, which was a very good year. I mean, how should we think about the degree of, continuing marginal erosion in 2025 given the big impact. Thank you.

感謝您提供的詳細信息，也許您提到短期內利潤率會面臨一些阻力。我的意思是，我們看到 2024 年的利潤率相對於 2023 年有所收縮，而 2023 年是非常好的一年。我的意思是，考慮到巨大的影響，我們應該如何看待 2025 年持續邊際侵蝕的程度。謝謝。

Hoang, It's Brian. I think what you know what we've put out there in terms of on the progressive leasing side of an implied margin of the 10.9 to 11.2 is kind of where our guidance falls, and that's incorporating this big Lots dynamic and so obviously that's a decline from 2024, but Big Lots was, as we indicated higher than higher than typical margin profile and then we're laying on to that fact.

Hoang，我是 Brian。我認為，就漸進式租賃而言，我們所給出的隱含利潤率 10.9 至 11.2，這差不多就是我們的指導範圍，而且這考慮到了 Big Lots 的動態，因此很明顯，這是從 2024 年開始的下降，但正如我們所指出的，Big Lots 的利潤率高於典型的利潤率，因此我們正在考慮這一事實。

That there are some key internal initiatives around technology, and you know the growth opportunities that we see that in our estimation does not make sense to pull the plug on those on those initiatives. So we're going to go full steam ahead and drive these initiatives forward here in 2025.

圍繞技術有一些關鍵的內部舉措，而且我們看到了成長機會，我們認為沒有必要停止這些舉措。因此，我們將全力以赴，在 2025 年推動這些舉措。

And that's going to put you know some dollars of SG&A to work that they're contributing to some of that margin decline, but you know we're still at the, we're still within the range of our [1,113%] that we have we have specified for progressive leasing, not inclusive of those two dynamics and so we're.

這將使銷售、一般及行政費用增加一些，這會導致利潤率下降，但您知道我們仍然處於，仍然在我們為漸進式租賃指定的 [1,113%] 範圍內，不包括這兩個動態，所以我們。

Obviously, we never want to see margin climb, but I think given the circumstances and what we're doing to compensate for the big loss and focus on the long-term growth picture, I think all things considered, it's relatively favorable outcome for 2025.

顯然，我們不希望看到利潤率上升，但我認為，考慮到目前的情況以及我們為彌補巨額損失和關注長期增長前景所採取的措施，我認為從各方面考慮，這對於 2025 年來說是一個相對有利的結果。

Got it, and thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。您的線路現已開通。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I guess my first question is on American signature. My recollection is that you didn't start, generating any GMV until kind of late in 2024, and I was just wondering, you can just kind of direct me what your expectation is for the GMV contribution from American Signature in 2025. Thanks.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。所以我想我的第一個問題是關於美國簽名的。我記得你們直到 2024 年底才開始產生 GMV，我只是想知道，你能否告訴我，你對 2025 年 American Signature 的 GMV 貢獻的預期是什麼。謝謝。

Yeah, Anthony, yeah, we're really pleased with the partnership with the ASI team. You're right, we didn't really start to generate much GMV in 2024. There was some in the kind of back half of the fourth quarter, but we're partnering well.

是的，安東尼，是的，我們對與 ASI 團隊的合作感到非常高興。你說得對，我們實際上在 2024 年並沒有開始產生太多的 GMV。第四節後半段出現了一些失誤，但我們配合得很好。

We've got great connectivity across the top of the top of the management team, and we're in the stores a lot talking to sales associates. Things are going very well and they're adopting the program above our expectations, and we expect to basically.

我們與管理團隊的高層之間有著很好的溝通，而且我們經常在商店裡與銷售助理交談。事情進展得很順利，他們採用該計劃的程度超出了我們的預期，基本上也符合我們的預期。

Achieve the, replace the volume that they were doing in the past with their previous rider and then take that leg up. It'll, it may take a little bit of time to ramp the growth and exceed what they were doing previously, but our 2025 expectations are to replace what they were doing before, at least.

實現這一目標，用他們之前的騎手替換他們過去所做的音量，然後將那條腿抬起來。它可能需要一點時間才能實現成長並超越先前的水平，但我們對 2025 年的期望是至少能夠取代先前的水平。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you talked about the fact that you had this increase in new customers and that led to a bit of a ramp up in the leased merchandise write-off rating or, tighten credit.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後您談到這樣一個事實，即新客戶數量有所增加，這導致租賃商品註銷評級有所上升，或者說信貸收緊。

Can you kind of dimensionalize that just in terms of like? I don't know, lease approval, like the percentage of lease applications that are being approved or maybe the average lease amount like how should we kind of think about that?

您能否從某個角度對其進行維度化？我不知道租賃批准，例如被批准的租賃申請的百分比或平均租賃金額，我們應該如何考慮這個問題？

Sure, And there are both of those elements, as we talked about before, approval rates and approval amounts, but there's a couple of dynamics that that will generally cause us to change our decision and posture and as we've always said, the data inform us on what the appropriate decisions are.

當然，正如我們之前談到的，這兩個因素都有，即批准率和批准金額，但有幾個動態因素通常會導致我們改變決策和態度，正如我們一直所說，數據會告訴我們什麼是適當的決策。

We took a few tightening actions in the back half of 2024. We've seen a few in. We've not seen a few, but we've done another couple here in subsequent to year end and our approval rates in the 4th quarter and kind of similarly year-to-date are about 350basis points to 400 basis points lower than they were at the same time last year.

我們在 2024 年下半年採取了一些緊縮措施。我們已見過一些了。我們沒有看到太多這樣的情況，但是在年底之前我們又做了幾次，我們的第四季度的批准率以及年初至今的批准率比去年同期低了約 350 個基點到 400 個基點。

And there's a couple of things that can impact or affect approval rates, one of which obviously is any action we take to our thresholds and our decisioning algorithms. But the other two have to do a channel shift, so it could be that you're getting more online apps, or you know versus in store that's going to bring down approval rates somewhat.

有幾件事可能會影響批准率，其中之一顯然是我們對閾值和決策演算法採取的任何行動。但另外兩家公司必須進行管道轉變，因此，你可能會得到更多的線上應用程序，或者你知道與在商店中相比，這會在一定程度上降低批准率。

This new customer dynamic, we do have a lower approval rate for new customers because of what I said it's just it's more difficult to decision them. But also, one of the things we're seeing is just a, and this goes back to maybe the health of the consumer comment is the quality of the app that comes in. You might have.

對於這種新客戶動態，我們對新客戶的批准率確實較低，因為正如我所說，對他們做出決定更加困難。但同時，我們看到的事情之一就是，這也許可以追溯到消費者評論的健康狀況就是應用程式的品質。你可能有。

You might have the same number of apps as last year, but the quality of the apps might be slightly lower, which could cause us to have lower approval rates without us actually taking any decisioning or tightening actions. And so all those three kinds of bucketed together have resulted in our current posture being about 350basis points to 400 basis points lower than the same time last year.

您可能擁有與去年相同數量的應用程序，但應用程式的品質可能略低，這可能會導致我們在沒有實際採取任何決策或收緊措施的情況下獲得較低的批准率。因此，所有這三種因素加在一起，導致我們目前的利率水準比去年同期低了約 350 個基點到 400 個基點。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. 的 Brad Thomas。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Steve, I do think that the underlying GMV trends here are still, really encouraging to see and obviously the loss of big loss seems more of a one-time event to us.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。史蒂夫，我確實認為這裡的潛在 GMV 趨勢仍然非常令人鼓舞，而且顯然巨額虧損對我們來說似乎更像是一次性事件。

I guess I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about. Sort of doors and pipeline more broadly, outside of big lots, I know there's a number of furniture stores that have gone under, but do you have any other material, customers that are going away or what are you seeing on the losses side of the partners and the doors?

我希望你能再多談一點。更廣泛地說，除了大宗商品之外，門和管道的情況也一樣，我知道有很多家具店都倒閉了，但你們還有其他材料嗎？ 客戶是否也正在流失？ 或者，你們在合作夥伴和門方面面臨哪些損失？

Thanks, Brad. I mean it's this big loss is unfortunate and but it's out of our control and as you said, and as I said, one-time event, as we look across our large retail partners and you all are aware of who they are. We feel like we're in a good spot.

謝謝，布拉德。我的意思是，這麼大的損失是不幸的，但這超出了我們的控制範圍，正如你所說，正如我所說，這是一次性事件，當我們回顧我們的大型零售合作夥伴時，你們都知道他們是誰。我們感覺我們處在一個很好的位置。

We can't predict the future, but we don't see any financial distress in those in those partners, and the fact that we've got them locked up under multi-year exclusivities, some into the 2030's, gives us a lot of confidence that this, the lion's share of our GMV is protected.

我們無法預測未來，但我們沒有看到這些合作夥伴遇到任何財務困境，而且我們與他們簽訂了多年的獨家協議，有些協議甚至持續到 2030 年，這讓我們非常有信心，我們的 GMV 的最大份額將受到保護。

I mean, there's always going to be churn in the regions and It might be a little bit more pronounced now than it has been historically, but those regionals and certainly in the long tail, the mom and pops, they can kind of come and go, but we're not seeing anything in our TOP10 absent, after the Big Lots bankruptcy which gives us confidence in the GMV trajectory and kind of looking past this one-time event and feeling good about what we're delivering in 2025.

我的意思是，各個地區總是會發生客戶流失，現在這種情況可能比歷史上更加明顯，但這些地區性企業，以及長尾企業，它們可能會來來去去，但在 Big Lots 破產後，我們沒有看到我們的 TOP10 中有任何企業缺席，這讓我們對 GMV 的發展軌跡充滿信心，讓我們可以回顧這一一次性事件，並對我們在實現這一目標的發展軌跡感到滿意。

Yeah, that's great. And then, we always like to ask you about the pipeline, obviously [AMSI], a big partner ramping up here right now, but how are your conversations going and, is the backdrop changing at all? Do you feel like 2025 could be a better year for net net additions?

是的，太棒了。然後，我們總是想問您關於頻道的問題，顯然 [AMSI] 是現在正在加緊合作的一個重要合作夥伴，但是您的談話進展如何，背景是否有所變化？您是否認為 2025 年可能是淨增額較好的一年？

Yeah, it's It's tough to make predictions about that as you guys have seen from my history there, but I'm bullish and I'm optimistic about where we are in the pipeline cycle and the conversations we're having.

是的，正如你們從我的歷史中看到的那樣，對此做出預測是很難的，但我很樂觀，我對我們在管道週期中的位置以及我們正在進行的對話感到樂觀。

I'm not predicting that we'll get, some whale this year, but certainly that's our goal and but the the. The conditions are still conducive to other retailers adopting this payment type, and we feel like we're best positioned to deliver that, so we're working really hard on it and we feel pretty good about our prospects there.

我並不是預測我們今年會捕獲一些鯨魚，但這確實是我們的目標。目前的條件仍然有利於其他零售商採用這種支付方式，我們覺得我們最有能力實現這一點，因此我們正在努力工作，我們對我們的前景感到非常樂觀。

Right. And then maybe a quick one for Brian. I understand that questions on free cash flow generation. I understand that, where GMV shakes out will impact free cash flow, but can you give us a rough sense of perhaps, what you think you can generate this year given the EBITDA guidance you've laid out?

正確的。然後也許對 Brian 來說這是一個快速的問題。我了解有關自由現金流產生的問題。我理解，GMV 的變化將影響自由現金流，但您能否大致告訴我們，根據您列出的 EBITDA 指引，您認為今年您能創造多少收入？

We didn't guide the cash flow generation, but I would say exactly where you were where you were heading on is the timing of the GMV and when it gets generated is going to be a big driver in that cash flow generation, especially if it's weighted towards the back end of the year and you're looking for that portfolio to turn over, but I would say there aren't any unique dynamics.

我們沒有指導現金流的產生，但我想說，你所處的位置以及你前進的方向取決於 GMV 的時間，而 GMV 的產生時間將成為現金流產生的重要驅動力，尤其是如果它集中在年底，而你又希望投資組合能夠扭虧為盈，但我想說，並沒有什麼獨特的動態。

This year from an operational standpoint that would skew or change our cash flow generation as it relates to our Ibada generation. From historical periods, so there's not going to be large items hung up on the balance sheet or any anomalies on that front that that would cause this year to be much different from prior years as a function of.

今年從營運角度來看，這會扭曲或改變我們與 Ibada 生成相關的現金流生成。從歷史時期來看，資產負債表上不會出現大額項目，也不會出現任何異常，導致今年與前幾年有很大不同。

I would just I would just add on to that. I mean, we're really excited about our four technologies business, as we said in the prepared remarks. We tripled the GMV in '24 and we're planning to more than double it again in 25.

我只是想補充這一點。我的意思是，正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們對我們的四項技術業務感到非常興奮。我們的 GMV 在 24 年成長了兩倍，我們計劃在 25 年再成長一倍以上。

It's a very short term loan that turns over very quickly, so it's pretty capital efficient, but they're a very highly seasonal business. So as Brian said about the timing of the GMV production, there'll be some more capital requirements for the for business, but Nothing that would change, as Brian said, the overall profile of the company materially.

這是一項短期貸款，週轉速度非常快，因此資本效率相當高，但這是一項季節性很強的業務。因此，正如 Brian 所說的那樣，關於 GMV 生產的時間安排，對於業務來說會有一些更多的資本要求，但正如 Brian 所說，沒有什麼會從根本上改變公司的整體狀況。

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Vincent Caintic。您的線路現已開通。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow up some prior questions. I guess the first one to talk about, some of the trade down activity and maybe coming from, lenders that are above the credit stack.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。只是為了跟進一些先前的問題。我想首先要談的是一些交易降級活動，這些活動可能來自信貸堆疊之上的貸款人。

If you could talk about the opportunities there, and I, with GMV having a lot of moving parts this this year with Big Lots and also the dynamic decisioning. I'm kind of particularly wondering about the application volume. That you might be getting in from some of these lenders tightening up if that's growing.

如果您可以談談那裡的機會，我和 GMV 今年與 Big Lots 有很多活動部件以及動態決策。我特別想知道申請量的情況。如果這種情況持續成長，你可能會受到一些放貸者的追捧。

I mean, Vincent, we certainly saw the credit supply above us, have a few different, I guess cycles in 2024. We started to see it kind of in Q2 of 24 and I think our position was that kind of as we got into the fall. In holiday period that they were about as tight. They were pretty tight. They weren't going to loosen, but they probably wouldn't tighten again.

我的意思是，文森特，我們確實看到了我們之上的信貸供應，我猜 2024 年會有幾個不同的週期。我們在 24 年第二季開始看到這種現象，我認為隨著進入秋季，我們的處境也是這樣的。在假期期間，他們的關係也差不多一樣緊張。它們非常緊密。它們不會放鬆，但大概也不會再收緊。

We certainly saw application volume from the top of the funnel and as we said that we're appreciative of that volume of that volume. It's helped to drive our new customer dynamic which we think is healthy for the overall portfolio, even if it does have some near term impacts on delinquencies because they're new customers to us.

我們確實看到了漏斗頂部的申請量，正如我們所說的，我們很欣賞這種數量。它有助於推動我們新客戶的動態，我們認為這對整體投資組合來說是健康的，即使它對拖欠率有一些短期影響，因為他們是我們的新客戶。

It'll be You know we're going to be watching the numbers and just like you are on what's going to happen with that credit supply above us in 2025. There are those that are predicting that they may loosen a little bit in the back half.

你知道，我們將密切關注這些數字，就像你關注 2025 年信貸供應超過我們預期時會發生什麼一樣。有人預測，他們後半段可能會稍微放鬆一點。

If that's the case, I hope it's because there's other macro things that are tailwinds, and I think that it will be good for all of us, but the application volume is we have good trends in application volume, but outside of the Of the apps that are flowing from the trade down, as I said earlier, the average quality of the app that we're seeing is a little bit is a little bit lower than what we saw last year.

如果是這樣的話，我希望是因為還有其他宏觀因素在推動，我認為這對我們所有人來說都是好事，但應用程式數量呈現良好趨勢，但在從交易中流出的應用程式之外，正如我之前所說，我們看到的應用程式平均品質比去年略低。

So not all apps are created equal, and we watch various points within our application flow and funnel optimization. And trace things from an app start to an app submit to an approval to fund it and have different metrics as it relates to what app turns into funded GMV and we'll continue to refine that and get more sophisticated in where we can have impact at all those different points in the funnel. So apps are up and strong, but not all apps are created equal.

因此，並非所有應用程式都是平等的，我們會專注於應用程式流程和漏斗優化中的各個點。並且從應用程式啟動到應用程式提交到批准資助的過程進行跟踪，並且擁有與哪個應用程式轉化為資助的GMV相關的不同指標，我們將繼續完善這一點，並在我們可以對漏斗中的所有不同點產生影響的地方變得更加複雜。雖然應用程式都很強大，但並非所有應用程式都是平等的。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then second follow up just on that EBITDA margin and again understanding that there's the moving pieces from big lots and the delinquencies, but maybe you can talk about what you think the right long term, even a margin for the business should be.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。然後第二個跟進只是關於 EBITDA 利潤率，並再次了解到存在來自大批量和拖欠的變動因素，但也許你可以談談你認為正確的長期利潤率，甚至業務利潤率應該是多少。

I mean, it sounds like there's a lot of maybe interesting investments that you can be making in marketing and so forth and so just wondering if maybe you can carry that forward and if you can talk about the different investments that you that you do want to be making to drive more GMV. Thank you.

我的意思是，這聽起來好像您可以在行銷等方面進行很多有趣的投資，所以我想您是否可以繼續進行這些投資，並且您可以談談您想要進行的不同投資，以推動更多的 GMV。謝謝。

Hi, this is Brian. I think I just start by saying big lots, winding down from the portfolio does not change our conviction about an [1113%] long term target for even margin, and there are levers that we're able to pull internally to compensate, I think, in the immediate, aftermath of their bankruptcy, we're going to see some pressures and we'll need to adjust as we go into '26 and beyond.

你好，我是布萊恩。我首先要說的是，從投資組合中減少大量持股並不會改變我們對 [1113%] 長期均等利潤目標的信念，而且我們可以從內部採取一些措施來彌補，我認為，在他們破產後，我們將看到一些壓力，我們需要在進入 26 年及以後進行調整。

So I think, our view of the long-term margin is unchanged, given this dynamic. It was certainly a tailwind for us is they had higher than average profitability profile. I mean, with respect to the investments and Steve can jump in here as well.

因此我認為，考慮到這種動態，我們對長期利潤的看法不會改變。他們的盈利狀況高於平均水平，這對我們來說無疑是一個順風。我的意思是，就投資而言，史蒂夫也可以參與其中。

But we have build a long-term roadmap around where our technology aims to be as we look to serve our customers, titan integrations and, be able to pull friction out of the process and maximize GMV and those initiatives that we've had our eyes on tackling here in 2025, well before the Big Lots news broke.

但我們已經圍繞我們的技術目標制定了長期路線圖，我們希望服務好我們的客戶、進行巨頭整合，能夠消除流程中的摩擦，最大化 GMV 以及我們在 2025 年（Big Lots 新聞爆出之前）就一直著眼於解決的那些舉措。

I think you know our estimation is that they're as valuable as before and so we're going to chase these things like. ERP, is a, initiative that we're going through and working through, lease management type of enhancements on the back end and then tighter integrations with our retail partners.

我想你知道我們的估計是它們和以前一樣有價值，所以我們會追逐這些東西。ERP 是我們正在進行和努力的一項計劃，旨在增強後端的租賃管理類型，並與我們的零售合作夥伴進行更緊密的整合。

We've seen benefits in 2024 with some large partners where we have pulled friction out of the process and see conversion improve meaningfully and so there's a direct correlation between these investments and the GMV that they drive, and I think it would be, a lost opportunity to pull back or unplug from those initiatives in the face of the lots going away. I don't know if you have anything down there, Steve.

2024 年，我們與一些大型合作夥伴一起看到了收益，我們消除了流程中的摩擦，轉換率得到了顯著提高，因此這些投資與它們推動的 GMV 之間存在直接的相關性，我認為，面對大量訂單的消失，撤回或放棄這些舉措將是一個失去的機會。我不知道你那裡有什麼東西，史蒂夫。

No, I think you nailed it. Thank you. Great thanks.

不，我認為你說對了。謝謝。非常感謝。

Thank you and I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Steven Michaels for closing remarks.

謝謝您，目前我沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給史蒂文邁克爾斯，讓他做最後發言。

Thank you, guys, for joining us this morning and for your continued interest in PROG Holdings. I want to again thank our entire team for delivering a very successful 2024. We're very excited about delivering another great year in 2025, and we look forward to updating you in our Q1 call in April.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，並感謝你們對 PROG Holdings 的持續關注。我要再次感謝我們整個團隊取得了 2024 年的巨大成功。我們非常高興 2025 年能再創輝煌，並期待在 4 月的第一季電話會議上向您報告最新情況。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。