PPG Industries Inc (PPG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Emily, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter PPG Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to John Bruno, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    早上好。我叫艾米麗,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時,我想歡迎大家參加 PPG 第四季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁約翰布魯諾。請繼續,先生。

  • John Bruno - VP of IR

    John Bruno - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Once again, this is John Bruno. We appreciate your continued interest in PPG and welcome you to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results conference call. Joining me on the call from PPG are Tim Knavish, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Vince Morales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our comments relate to the financial information released after U.S. equity markets closed on Thursday, January 19, 2023. We have posted detailed commentary and accompanying presentation slides on the Investor Center of our website at ppg.com.

    謝謝你,艾米麗,大家早上好。這又是約翰·布魯諾。我們感謝您對 PPG 的持續關注,並歡迎您參加我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務業績電話會議。和我一起接到 PPG 電話的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Knavish;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Vince Morales。我們的評論與 2023 年 1 月 19 日星期四美國股市收盤後發布的財務信息有關。我們已在我們網站 ppg.com 的投資者中心發布了詳細的評論和隨附的演示幻燈片。

  • The slides are also available on the webcast site for this call to provide additional support to the brief opening comments Tim will make shortly. Following management's perspective on the company's results for the quarter, we will move to a Q&A session. Both the prepared commentary and discussion during this call may contain forward-looking statements reflecting the company's current view of future events and their potential effect on PPG's operating and financial performance. These statements involve uncertainties and risks, which may cause actual results to differ. The company's under no obligation to provide subsequent updates to these forward-looking statements. This presentation also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    本次電話會議的網絡廣播網站上也提供了這些幻燈片,為 Tim 即將發表的簡短開場白提供額外支持。根據管理層對公司本季度業績的看法,我們將進入問答環節。本次電話會議期間準備好的評論和討論都可能包含前瞻性陳述,反映公司當前對未來事件及其對 PPG 運營和財務業績的潛在影響的看法。這些陳述涉及不確定性和風險,可能導致實際結果不同。公司沒有義務提供這些前瞻性陳述的後續更新。本演示文稿還包含某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

  • The company has provided, in the appendix of the presentation materials, which are available on our website, reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. For additional information, please refer to PPG's filings with the SEC.

    公司在演示材料的附錄中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,這些非 GAAP 財務指標可在我們的網站上獲取。如需更多信息,請參閱 PPG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

  • Now let me introduce PPG's President and CEO, Tim Knavish.

    現在讓我介紹 PPG 的總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Knavish。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call and my first earnings call as CEO. I'll keep my comments brief, provide a few highlights on the recent quarter, the year 2022 and our outcome. Let me start with the fourth quarter.

    謝謝約翰,大家早上好。歡迎大家參加我們 2022 年第四季度的財報電話會議,這也是我作為首席執行官的第一次財報電話會議。我將保持簡短的評論,提供關於最近一個季度、2022 年和我們結果的一些亮點。讓我從第四季度開始。

  • Our fourth quarter sales of $4.2 billion were near the record levels achieved in 2021 despite significant unfavorable foreign currency translation. Sales were aided by our strong U.S. automotive refinish volume growth as supply chain disruptions started to moderate, and our order books remain robust. In 2022, our automotive refinish coatings business delivered over 2,000 net new body shop wins as customers continue to value the product technology and industry-leading services and capabilities that this business delivers every day, including what we believe is the best-in-class body shop for repair product.

    儘管外幣折算存在重大不利影響,但我們第四季度的銷售額為 42 億美元,接近 2021 年的創紀錄水平。隨著供應鏈中斷開始緩和,我們強勁的美國汽車修補漆銷量增長推動了銷售,我們的訂單保持強勁。 2022 年,我們的汽車修補塗料業務淨贏得了 2,000 多個新的車身修理廠,因為客戶繼續重視該業務每天提供的產品技術和行業領先的服務和能力,包括我們認為一流的車身購買維修產品。

  • Also aiding our sales were record results in our PPG Comex business in Mexico as our team continued their strong execution and delivered another record quarter of sales and earnings. PPG Comex sales are now more than $1 billion on annual sales basis, another record year for this business. Our aerospace business continued to recover, delivering organic sales growth of more than 20% on a year-over-year basis, even with continued supply chain challenges. With an initial reopening in China, strong global order book, increased military related growth and PPG's advantaged technology products, we expect this business to continue to grow in 2023 and beyond.

    我們在墨西哥的 PPG Comex 業務也取得了創紀錄的業績,這也有助於我們的銷售,因為我們的團隊繼續保持強有力的執行力,並創造了另一個創紀錄的季度銷售額和收益。 PPG Comex 的年銷售額現已超過 10 億美元,再創新高。我們的航空航天業務繼續復甦,實現了超過 20% 的同比有機銷售額增長,即使供應鏈面臨持續挑戰。隨著在中國的初步重新開放、強勁的全球訂單、軍事相關增長的增加以及 PPG 的優勢技術產品,我們預計該業務將在 2023 年及以後繼續增長。

  • Our adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations were $1.22, above the midpoint of $1.13 from the guidance we provided in October. This included more than 20% year-over-year segment earnings improvement driven by selling price realization and strong cost management. On a 2-year stack, selling prices were up about 19%.

    我們調整後的持續經營每股攤薄收益為 1.22 美元,高於我們 10 月份提供的指引中值 1.13 美元。這包括在售價實現和強大的成本管理的推動下,分部收益同比增長超過 20%。在 2 年的堆棧中,售價上漲了約 19%。

  • We achieved this segment earnings improvement despite the significant and unpredictable shutdowns in China from COVID-19 that were worse than what we had anticipated going into the quarter and these have continued into the first quarter.

    儘管 COVID-19 在中國造成重大且不可預測的停工,這比我們進入本季度的預期更糟糕,但我們實現了這一部門收益的改善,並且這些停工一直持續到第一季度。

  • In Europe, despite demand remaining soft, earnings were similar to prior year due to strong selling price realization and cost management. We also continue to execute our previously announced restructuring programs and realization of acquisition synergies and delivered about $20 million of savings in the quarter.

    在歐洲,儘管需求仍然疲軟,但由於強勁的銷售價格實現和成本管理,收益與上一年相似。我們還繼續執行我們之前宣布的重組計劃和收購協同效應的實現,並在本季度節省了約 2000 萬美元。

  • Now a few comments on the full year 2022. The challenges were many, including unprecedented cost inflation, unexpected geopolitical issues in Europe, disruptive and unpredictable shutdowns in China, strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar and rapid escalation in interest rates in the United States. Though all of these factors impacted our sales and margin performance, the PPG team responded to these challenges, including rapidly implementing real-time selling price increases that, by early 2023, will offset all cumulative cost inflation incurred since early 2021.

    現在就 2022 年全年發表一些評論。挑戰很多,包括前所未有的成本通脹、歐洲意外的地緣政治問題、中國的破壞性和不可預測的停工、美元的強勁升值以及美國利率的快速上升。儘管所有這些因素都影響了我們的銷售和利潤率表現,但 PPG 團隊應對了這些挑戰,包括迅速實施實時銷售價格上漲,到 2023 年初,這將抵消自 2021 年初以來發生的所有累計成本通脹。

  • Given the more difficult macro backdrop, we also announced, and are quickly executing new cost savings initiatives with particular focus on Europe. In 2022, we also made good progress on key strategic initiatives, including strengthening our relationship with the Home Depot, as evidenced by the launch of our new U.S. architectural Pro program, and winning more shelf space with our Glidden MAX Flex spray paint. In addition, we were honored to be awarded Home Depot's 2022 Overall Innovation Award, which was the first time that a paint supplier has achieved this distinction. Our partnership with the Home Depot continues to be a great opportunity for significant growth in the coming years.

    鑑於更加困難的宏觀背景,我們還宣布並正在迅速執行新的成本節約計劃,特別關注歐洲。 2022 年,我們在關鍵戰略舉措方面也取得了良好進展,包括加強與 Home Depot 的關係,我們推出新的美國建築 Pro 計劃就證明了這一點,並通過我們的 Glidden MAX Flex 噴漆贏得了更多貨架空間。此外,我們很榮幸獲得家得寶 2022 年整體創新獎,這是塗料供應商首次獲此殊榮。我們與 Home Depot 的合作夥伴關係仍然是未來幾年實現顯著增長的絕佳機會。

  • The PPG team continued the integration of our recent acquisitions, including timely execution of acquisition-related synergies. These businesses are all executing well and will provide the company with increased organic growth prospects in the next few years.

    PPG 團隊繼續整合我們最近的收購,包括及時執行與收購相關的協同效應。這些業務都執行良好,並將在未來幾年為公司提供更高的有機增長前景。

  • We made some smaller, but strategically important powder coating acquisitions, which added needed manufacturing capacity and greatly aids our technological capabilities in this fast-growing product category. In 2022, we once again lowered our SG&A as a percent of sales, decreasing by about 100 basis points, including the delivery of about $65 million in restructuring savings in the year. While working capital remains higher than we would like, we made solid progress in the second half 2022 to lower our inventories on a sequential basis. We expect cash conversion to return to our historical levels in 2023 and have exited 2022 with a strong and flexible balance sheet.

    我們進行了一些規模較小但具有重要戰略意義的粉末塗料收購,這增加了所需的製造能力,並極大地幫助了我們在這一快速增長的產品類別中的技術能力。 2022 年,我們再次降低了 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比,降低了約 100 個基點,其中包括當年交付的約 6500 萬美元的重組節餘。儘管營運資金仍高於我們的預期,但我們在 2022 年下半年取得了穩步進展,以連續降低庫存。我們預計現金轉換將在 2023 年恢復到歷史水平,並在 2022 年以強大而靈活的資產負債表退出。

  • Throughout 2022, we took actions to bolster our ESG program, including announcing our commitment to the science-based targets initiative, issuing our first-ever diversity report, and finally obtaining shareholder approval to declassify our board and remove supermajority voting requirements. In 2023, I expect our team to continue their strong progress by introducing additional sustainable products for our customers and unveiling our new 2030 sustainability goals.

    整個 2022 年,我們採取行動加強我們的 ESG 計劃,包括宣布我們對基於科學的目標倡議的承諾,發布我們有史以來的第一份多元化報告,並最終獲得股東批准對我們的董事會進行解密並取消絕對多數投票要求。到 2023 年,我希望我們的團隊繼續取得強勁進展,為我們的客戶推出更多可持續產品並公佈我們新的 2030 年可持續發展目標。

  • In summary, for 2022, we did not meet our own earnings expectations. But through the resiliency of the global PPG team, we did deliver record sales of $17.7 billion and set the foundation for many accretive growth initiatives.

    總之,對於 2022 年,我們沒有達到我們自己的盈利預期。但憑藉全球 PPG 團隊的韌性,我們確實實現了創紀錄的 177 億美元銷售額,並為許多增值增長計劃奠定了基礎。

  • Now moving to our outlook. As we outlined in our press release, we expect the Q1 demand environment to remain similar to the fourth quarter. However, as the year progresses, we are more confident that we have several catalysts that will enable PPG to drive earnings growth, including improvements in the supply chain, which will further moderate raw material costs, and we expect to see this flow through our P&L more prominently starting in the second quarter. Also, our strong position in China that will benefit us as the COVID reopening progresses. With respect to Europe, we expect coatings demand stabilization beginning in the second quarter, resulting in higher year-over-year earnings. In the U.S., we will benefit from the continued recovery of the aerospace and automotive refinish businesses and the current strength of our order books in both of those businesses. Also in the U.S., our recent share gains in the architectural business will help buffer lower demand from a softer U.S. housing market. As a reminder, our overall exposure to the U.S. new home construction market is relatively small, only about 1% of our global revenues.

    現在轉向我們的展望。正如我們在新聞稿中概述的那樣,我們預計第一季度的需求環境將與第四季度保持相似。然而,隨著今年的進展,我們更有信心,我們有幾個催化劑可以使 PPG 推動盈利增長,包括供應鏈的改善,這將進一步降低原材料成本,我們希望通過我們的損益表看到這種流動從第二季度開始更加突出。此外,隨著 COVID 重新開放的進展,我們在中國的強勢地位將使我們受益。關於歐洲,我們預計塗料需求從第二季度開始趨於穩定,從而帶來更高的同比收益。在美國,我們將受益於航空航天和汽車修補漆業務的持續復甦以及我們目前在這兩項業務中的訂單實力。同樣在美國,我們最近在建築業務中的份額增長將有助於緩解美國房地產市場疲軟帶來的需求下降。提醒一下,我們對美國新房建築市場的整體敞口相對較小,僅占我們全球收入的 1% 左右。

  • As we said last quarter, we believe our global portfolio mix will prove more resilience in the coming quarters, if we experience a broader global economic decline. As normal course of business, we will be highly focused on controlling the controllables, including managing our costs and optimizing working capital.

    正如我們上個季度所說,如果我們經歷更廣泛的全球經濟下滑,我們相信我們的全球投資組合將在未來幾個季度證明更具彈性。作為正常的業務過程,我們將高度專注於控制可控因素,包括管理我們的成本和優化營運資金。

  • In summary, while economic conditions are challenging in the near term, I expect segment margin recovery to continue in the first quarter and remain confident about the future earnings capabilities of PPG, and we certainly see a path to return to prior peak operating margins with opportunities to exceed it. As I begin my tenure as CEO, the PPG team is laser focused on delivering improved financial results, including recovering our historical margin profile, and executing on all levers to return our portfolio to mid- to high-teen percentage segment markets.

    總而言之,雖然短期內經濟狀況充滿挑戰,但我預計第一季度分部利潤率將繼續復甦,並對 PPG 未來的盈利能力保持信心,我們肯定會看到有機會回到之前的峰值營業利潤率的道路超過它。當我開始擔任首席執行官時,PPG 團隊專注於提供更好的財務業績,包括恢復我們的歷史利潤率狀況,並利用所有槓桿將我們的投資組合恢復到中高百分比細分市場。

  • At a high level, you can expect me and the PPG team to elevate our collaboration with our customers, bringing them innovative, sustainable and differentiated products and solutions, which will enable our customers to improve their productivity and growth and allow us to improve our own organic growth performance. We'll simplify and optimize our manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies to reduce complexity and deliver productivity for both PPG and our customers. And we will preserve our legacy of prudent management of our balance sheet, continuing to prioritize cash deployment for shareholder value creation. I plan to share more details on our key initiatives as the year progresses.

    在高層次上,您可以期待我和 PPG 團隊提升我們與客戶的合作,為他們帶來創新、可持續和差異化的產品和解決方案,這將使我們的客戶提高他們的生產力和增長,並使我們能夠改善我們自己有機增長表現。我們將簡化和優化我們的製造和供應鏈效率,以降低複雜性並為 PPG 和我們的客戶提供生產力。我們將保留審慎管理資產負債表的傳統,繼續優先考慮現金部署以創造股東價值。隨著時間的推移,我計劃分享更多關於我們關鍵舉措的細節。

  • In closing, I am looking forward to leading this great team of 50,000 employees around the world, as we continue to partner with our customers to create mutual value. This year marks PPG's 140th year anniversary, and I strongly believe that our best days are ahead. Thanks to our people, industry-leading products, innovative technologies and great customers. Thank you for your continued confidence in PPG.

    最後,我期待著領導這個由全球 50,000 名員工組成的偉大團隊,繼續與我們的客戶合作,創造共同價值。今年是 PPG 成立 140 週年,我堅信我們最好的日子就在前方。感謝我們的員工、行業領先的產品、創新技術和偉大的客戶。感謝您一直以來對 PPG 的信任。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. And now, Emily, would you please open the line for questions?

    我們準備好的發言到此結束。現在,Emily,請你打開問題熱線好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

  • David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    David L. Begleiter - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Tim, for the full year, consensus was around $7 per share, which will imply a pretty big ramp up from the Q1 levels. Is that a number that you think you can -- that can be achieved or come -- or get close to as year progresses?

    蒂姆,全年的共識是每股 7 美元左右,這意味著與第一季度的水平相比有相當大的增長。這是一個你認為你可以——可以實現或到來——或者隨著時間的推移接近的數字嗎?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Right now, David, just because of all the uncertainty in many different avenues of our business, we're focused on Q1. And clearly, Q1 has some hangover elements from Q4, particularly around China. We do believe, as I said in my comments, that there are the shopping list of multiple in the potential earnings growth catalyst for 2023, including China, including aero, including refinish, including Comex, EVs, THD, literally a shopping list of potential earnings catalyst, but we'll get through this hangover of Q1 and then reassess and communicate more as we move forward.

    是的。現在,大衛,僅僅因為我們業務的許多不同途徑的所有不確定性,我們專注於第一季度。顯然,第一季度有一些來自第四季度的後遺症,尤其是在中國。正如我在評論中所說,我們確實相信,在 2023 年的潛在收益增長催化劑中有多個購物清單,包括中國,包括航空,包括修補漆,包括 Comex、電動汽車、THD,字面意思是潛在的購物清單盈利催化劑,但我們將度過第一季度的宿醉,然後在我們前進的過程中重新評估和溝通更多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Sison。

  • Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Michael Joseph Sison - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Tim, I think your outlook for the first quarter is down mid-single digits for volumes. Can you walk us through what the volume outlook is from your less cyclical markets and your more cyclical markets to give us a gauge of kind of where those are at for the first quarter?

    蒂姆,我認為您對第一季度銷量的預期下降了中個位數。您能否向我們介紹一下週期性較弱的市場和周期性較強的市場的成交量前景,讓我們了解第一季度的情況?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Mike. I mean the biggest impact is, again, China. Typically, in China, March is a very big month for us, okay? And our assumption for China in Q1 is that they'll see a second wave to some degree after Chinese New Year. And so our base case is that we won't really see significant China recovery until starting in Q2. Additionally, on the architectural side, particularly in Europe, we would normally, in Q1, see a fairly robust stock up ahead of paint season. And because of everything that's happening in Europe that we see some buildup, but not nearly what we would see in a normal year.

    當然,邁克。我的意思是,影響最大的還是中國。通常,在中國,三月對我們來說是一個非常重要的月份,好嗎?我們在第一季度對中國的假設是,他們將在農曆新年後在某種程度上看到第二波浪潮。因此,我們的基本情況是,在第二季度開始之前,我們不會真正看到中國的顯著復甦。此外,在建築方面,特別是在歐洲,我們通常會在第一季度看到油漆季節之前相當強勁的庫存。由於歐洲發生的一切,我們看到了一些增長,但與正常年份相比還差得遠。

  • And then finally, one of our top-performing businesses, PPG Comex, typically has a very strong Q4, and it had an even stronger-than-expected Q4 in 2022. So there's a little bit of just timing there, even though we expect another great year from that business, there is timing issue in Q1. So those are the 3 main factors, I would say.

    最後,我們表現最好的業務之一 PPG Comex 通常具有非常強勁的第四季度,而且它在 2022 年第四季度的表現甚至強於預期。因此,儘管我們預計該業務又是一個偉大的一年,第一季度存在時間問題。所以我想說,這些是 3 個主要因素。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Mike, this is Vince. Just moving it on the other businesses. We're not seeing any tone change in the businesses sequentially again, good strong pace of recovery in aerospace, a solid, consistent growth in Refinish, auto OEM, consistent -- generally consistent quarter-over-quarter, starting to recover in Europe. So again, we're not seeing any significant changes in some of the other key businesses either.

    邁克,這是文斯。只是將其轉移到其他業務上。我們沒有看到業務再次出現任何基調變化,航空航天領域復甦步伐強勁,修補漆、汽車 OEM 穩健、持續增長,一致——總體上與上一季度保持一致,歐洲開始復蘇。同樣,我們也沒有看到其他一些關鍵業務有任何重大變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Christopher Parkinson 與 Mizuho 的對話。

  • Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher S. Parkinson - MD and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst

  • Just a real quick question on pricing. Can you just comment on the current pricing environment just given the macro movement in, let's say, raw materials and then also several management changes across the sector. Are you still seeing the ability to sustain price throughout the year? Just any commentary would be incredibly helpful.

    只是一個關於定價的快速問題。考慮到原材料的宏觀變動,以及整個行業的幾項管理變革,您能否評論一下當前的定價環境?您是否仍然看到全年維持價格的能力?任何評論都會非常有幫助。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sure. Thanks for the question, Chris. You saw on the print that we put up 11% for Q4, 19% on a 2-year stack, sequentially it was 18% on a 2-year stack in Q3. So we still have pricing momentum. We will have additional price in Q1 targeted by business. We've got some carryover impact in Q1 as well. As for what's happening out there in the world besides PPG, all the coatings companies are facing the same inflation inputs that we are, be it raw materials, which we focus a lot on but there's also significant inflation outside raw materials that we are also all experiencing. So, we see a continuation of positive pricing as we enter the year. And beyond that, a lot of it depends what happens on the inflationary environment, but that's our view at this point in the year, Chris.

    是的。當然。謝謝你的問題,克里斯。你在印刷品上看到我們在第四季度投入了 11%,在 2 年的堆棧中投入了 19%,在第三季度的 2 年堆棧中依次為 18%。所以我們仍然有定價動力。我們將在第 1 季度針對業務制定額外價格。我們在第一季度也有一些結轉影響。至於除了 PPG 之外世界上正在發生的事情,所有塗料公司都面臨著與我們相同的通貨膨脹投入,無論是原材料,我們都非常關注,但原材料之外也存在嚴重的通貨膨脹,我們也是如此體驗。因此,我們看到進入今年時積極定價的延續。除此之外,這在很大程度上取決於通脹環境會發生什麼,但這是我們今年這個時候的觀點,克里斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question today comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird.

    今天的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

  • Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

    Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

  • Guys, good morning. As it relates to the U.S. architectural, I mean, obviously, there's a bifurcation so far between yourself and some of the professional markets, how do you sort of see that evolving over time as the year unfolds? And then for European architectural, just given the extent of the volume weakness in the markets, can you just give us a sense as to how competitive the pricing -- a backdrop is in the industry, just given the volume weakness?

    伙計們,早上好。由於它與美國建築有關,我的意思是,顯然,到目前為止,你和一些專業市場之間存在分歧,你如何看待隨著時間的推移隨著時間的推移而演變?然後對於歐洲建築,僅考慮到市場銷量疲軟的程度,您能否讓我們了解定價的競爭力 - 鑑於銷量疲軟,行業的背景是什麼?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Thanks, Ghansham. So let me start with the U.S. environment. I'll start at a high level from a macro standpoint. Clearly, DIY is down partly because of what's happening with consumer confidence, but also a bit of a holdover from the COVID piece of DIY. And clearly, new housing construction going down, again, only 1% of our sales. But those 2 segments are down. Fortunately, for us, we're much stronger in commercial and maintenance. And there, we still see backlogs with our customers. I think you know we do a survey every quarter with our professional customers here in the United States. And their backlogs are still floating in that 12- to 13-week range. So we still see some good demand there.

    當然。謝謝,加沙姆。那麼讓我從美國環境開始。我將從宏觀的角度從高層次開始。顯然,DIY 下降的部分原因是消費者信心的下降,但也有一點是 DIY 的 COVID 部分遺留下來的。很明顯,新住房建設再次下降,僅占我們銷售額的 1%。但是這兩個部分都下降了。幸運的是,對我們來說,我們在商業和維護方面要強大得多。在那裡,我們仍然看到客戶積壓。我想你知道我們每個季度都會對美國的專業客戶進行調查。他們的積壓工作仍在 12 到 13 週的範圍內浮動。所以我們仍然看到那裡有一些良好的需求。

  • And then as we move forward, we expect to continue to see growth from our Home Depot Pro program moving forward. Now going over to Europe, the volume started to really deteriorate after the invasion last Q1, and was down double digits throughout all of 2022. The professional painter business down not nearly as much more in the single digits. But as we enter 2022, we'll see particularly for Q1 -- I'm sorry, 2023, Q1, we've got a little bit of a comp issue where we're still comping part of the quarter to the pre-war era. But then once we get to Q2, we start to have, frankly, some positive comps because our total business in Q2 in Europe once was down about 10% double digits, low double digits.

    然後隨著我們的前進,我們希望繼續看到我們的 Home Depot Pro 計劃向前發展。現在轉到歐洲,在上一季度入侵之後,銷量開始真正惡化,並且在整個 2022 年下降了兩位數。專業畫家業務的降幅幾乎沒有那麼多。但是當我們進入 2022 年時,我們會特別看到第一季度——對不起,2023 年第一季度,我們遇到了一些補償問題,我們仍在對戰前季度的部分時間進行補償時代。但是一旦我們進入第二季度,坦率地說,我們開始有一些積極的補償,因為我們在歐洲第二季度的總業務曾經下降了大約 10% 兩位數,低兩位數。

  • So we do see it more or less kind of bouncing off the bottom, if you will, as we end Q1 and then comping better as we get into Q2.

    所以我們確實看到它或多或少地從底部反彈,如果你願意的話,因為我們結束了第一季度,然後在進入第二季度時表現得更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 John McNulty。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Tim, you spoke in your prepared remarks about the target of mid- to high teens margins for PPG going forward. Is it a function of just raw materials getting back to normal and kind of having that catch-up kind of finally been made? Or do you see a lot of manufacturing efficiency improvements that may have uncovered themselves through some of the supply chain problems, what have you? And if so, if it's the latter, can you help us to understand what some of those levers might be?

    蒂姆,你在準備好的評論中談到了 PPG 未來的中高青少年利潤率目標。僅僅是原材料恢復正常並且最終實現了那種追趕的功能嗎?或者您是否看到許多製造效率的提高可能是通過某些供應鏈問題發現的,您有什麼?如果是這樣,如果是後者,您能否幫助我們了解其中一些槓桿可能是什麼?

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Let me John. This is Vince. I'm going to start out I'll let in -- I'll let Tim add some color here, but really 3 levers. One, we've been chasing, which is the raw material price, or total inflation price gap, which, again, we think will caught up on that in early 2023. We call it weeks not uneven months. But the second, which I think is important, is, and you hit on it, John, we haven't had a strong manufacturing couple of years here due to disruptions, due to supply disruptions, due to customer disruptions, COVID disruptions, due to churn in the workforce that many companies are seeing. So we do -- that is not a significant number for us from a manufacturing perspective. But the third, which is very important, though, is we're still down about 10% versus pre-COVID levels in terms of volumes spread throughout our portfolio. So those are the 3 big levers and Tim can add color here.

    讓我約翰。這是文斯。我要開始了——我會讓蒂姆在這裡添加一些顏色,但實際上有 3 個槓桿。第一,我們一直在追逐,這是原材料價格,或總通脹價格差距,我們認為這將在 2023 年初趕上。我們稱之為周而不是不平衡的月份。但第二個,我認為很重要,是,你說對了,約翰,由於中斷,由於供應中斷,由於客戶中斷,由於 COVID 中斷,由於中斷,我們在這裡沒有強大的製造業幾年像許多公司所看到的那樣流失勞動力。所以我們這樣做了——從製造的角度來看,這對我們來說並不是一個重要的數字。但是第三個非常重要的是,就我們整個投資組合的交易量而言,我們仍然比 COVID 之前的水平下降了約 10%。所以這些是 3 個大槓桿,Tim 可以在這裡添加顏色。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, you really hit the Phase 3, but particularly to the volume, we've got aero still down significantly. We've got auto, auto has been at recession levels for 3 years now. There's pent-up demand across the planet for cars. Refinish is still down 10%-ish from 2019. In addition to what Vince mentioned, we have done a good bit of cost out during this period as well and restructuring. So we'll get levered from that. We're not completely finished with our acquisition synergy realization. So, as I said, I used the term shopping list. We've got a shopping list of items that are -- contribute to our margin recovery.

    是的,您確實達到了第 3 階段,但特別是體積,我們的空氣動力學仍然顯著下降。我們有汽車,汽車已經處於衰退水平 3 年了。全球對汽車的需求都被壓抑了。修補漆仍比 2019 年下降了 10%。除了 Vince 提到的之外,我們在此期間也做了很多成本削減和重組。所以我們將從中受益。我們還沒有完全完成收購協同效應的實現。所以,正如我所說,我使用了購物清單這個詞。我們有一份購物清單——有助於我們的利潤恢復。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stephen Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Stephen Byrne。

  • Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Stephen V. Byrne - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Tim, you made a comment a few minutes ago about inflation outside of raws. And I just wanted to drill into this near-term outlook of yours of low-single-digit inflation in the first quarter. Is that a comment on broadly cost of goods? Or is it just raws? And are you also seeing it in labor and freight and so forth?

    蒂姆,你幾分鐘前就原料以外的通貨膨脹發表了評論。我只是想深入了解您對第一季度低個位數通脹的近期前景。這是對廣泛的商品成本的評論嗎?還是只是生的?你是否也在勞務和貨運等方面看到了它?

  • And maybe just on the raw side of that, for first quarter, when would you say that flowing through cost of goods is based on? What month would be the midpoint of your purchases that would flow through cost of goods in the first quarter versus your purchases of those raws today? What would you say that would reflect in terms of maybe second quarter raw material costs?

    也許只是在原始方面,對於第一季度,您會說什麼時候流經商品成本是基於什麼時候?您在第一季度流經商品成本的採購與您今天採購這些原材料的中間值是哪一個月?你會說什麼會反映在第二季度的原材料成本方面?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Steve. I think the numbers you were quoting at the beginning of your question were raw material, okay? So Q4, we were up mid-single digits year-over-year, down low single digits sequentially. In Q1, we expect to see modest down year-over-year and another sequential step down. The reality of flow-through is, we're really flowing through inventory that we have on hand now pretty much. And that will flow through throughout Q1. So we're expecting the positive benefits of that on the P&L to really not show itself significantly until Q2.

    當然,史蒂夫。我認為你在問題開頭引用的數字是原材料,好嗎?因此,第四季度,我們同比增長中等個位數,連續下降低個位數。在第一季度,我們預計會出現同比小幅下降,並會再次出現連續下降。流通的現實是,我們實際上正在流通我們手頭上的庫存。這將貫穿整個第一季度。因此,我們預計這對損益表的積極好處要到第二季度才會真正顯著顯現出來。

  • Okay? And then on the other inflation, that's going to be, at least for now, that's going to be pretty constant as we move from Q1 into Q2 around labor inflation and some of the other inflation.

    好的?然後在其他通貨膨脹方面,至少就目前而言,隨著我們從第一季度到第二季度圍繞勞動力通貨膨脹和其他一些通貨膨脹,這將是相當穩定的。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And, Steve, just going back to what Tim said earlier in the call. That's why we're doing targeted pricing in -- across our portfolio to compensate for this other inflation that's going to be higher year-over-year, primarily labor. I'm not seeing as much freight as you pointed out. It's not been an inflationary factor, the last couple of quarters.

    是的。史蒂夫,回到蒂姆早些時候在電話中所說的話。這就是為什麼我們在我們的投資組合中進行有針對性的定價,以補償其他同比上漲的通脹,主要是勞動力。我沒有看到你指出的那麼多運費。過去幾個季度,這不是通脹因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Duffy Fischer。

  • Patrick Duffy Fischer - Research Analyst

    Patrick Duffy Fischer - Research Analyst

  • Question just around price. So as you ended last year, if you just anniversary the price that you had at that point how much would that move up price this year just from an accounting standpoint as we roll through? And two, I'd imagine you've gone out with a lot of your price increases already. So if you average that across the company, kind of what's the ask on price that you've sent out to customers so far this year?

    問題只是圍繞價格。因此,當你去年結束時,如果你只是周年紀念你當時的價格,那麼從會計的角度來看,今年的價格會上漲多少?第二,我想你已經漲價了很多。因此,如果您對整個公司進行平均,那麼今年到目前為止您向客戶發送的價格要求是多少?

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Duffy, I'll handle the first part of the question. The carryover pricing -- we do have every quarter, our price off of our sales base so that you can do the math. You come up with several hundreds of millions of dollars of price carryover in 2023, from our 2022 pricing initiatives. Again, if you just do the math, you can easily come up with that. It's certainly north of $300 million that will be carried over.

    是的。 Duffy,我會處理問題的第一部分。結轉定價——我們確實每個季度都有我們的銷售基礎價格,這樣你就可以算一下。您從我們的 2022 年定價計劃中得出了 2023 年數億美元的價格結轉。再一次,如果你只是做數學,你可以很容易地得出結論。結轉的金額肯定超過 3 億美元。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And, Duffy, thanks for the question. It's Tim here. On the new pricing, if you will, it will be more targeted just based on where each of the segments are on their catch-up and on offsetting total inflation and new inflation. We've already gone out for additional price in a couple of businesses. We're having discussions with customers in a few other businesses, and we'll prefer to have those discussions with the customers first and -- but we'll have more visibility on that as we move forward. But we will have positive price when you net all of that here as we move through '23.

    是的。還有,Duffy,謝謝你提出這個問題。我是蒂姆。關於新定價,如果你願意的話,它將更有針對性,只是基於每個細分市場的追趕以及抵消總通脹和新通脹。我們已經在幾家企業中以額外價格出局。我們正在與其他一些企業的客戶進行討論,我們更願意先與客戶進行這些討論——但隨著我們的前進,我們將對此有更多的了解。但是,當我們在 23 年期間將所有這些都計算在內時,我們將獲得正價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Laurent Favre with Exane BNP Pariba.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Exane BNP Pariba 的 Laurent Favre。

  • Laurent Guy Favre - Research Analyst

    Laurent Guy Favre - Research Analyst

  • Tim, in your focus areas, you mentioned simplification and optimization of supply chain and manufacturing. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about this and maybe size the opportunity on costs and working capital, and other areas where you think you need to rationalize the footprint based on a structurally lower demand environment, for instance, in Europe?

    蒂姆,在你的重點領域,你提到了供應鍊和製造的簡化和優化。我想知道您是否可以談談這個問題,並可能在成本和營運資金以及您認為需要根據結構性較低的需求環境(例如歐洲)合理化足蹟的其他領域中尋找機會?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Laurent. If you look at our journey over the last decade and half of -- got a lot of acquisitions, we've acquired a lot of manufacturing sense. We've also acquired a lot of product portfolios, and we've captured a lot of synergies along the way. As we look at where we are today and some of the things we've learned through some of the supply shortages, et cetera, of the crisis, we believe there's fairly significant opportunities for us to really simplify, not only our footprint, but our processes, simplify and standardize some of what we've acquired, simplify some of the portfolios that we've acquired.

    是的。謝謝,洛朗。如果你看看我們在過去十年半的旅程 - 進行了大量收購,我們已經獲得了很多製造意識。我們還獲得了很多產品組合,並且在此過程中獲得了很多協同效應。當我們審視我們今天所處的位置以及我們從供應短缺等危機中學到的一些東西時,我們相信我們有相當大的機會真正簡化我們的足跡,但我們的足跡流程,簡化和標準化我們收購的一些產品,簡化我們收購的一些產品組合。

  • So, we do believe that there's some significant upside for us there as we move forward. And as you can imagine, that's -- that's not as quick a realization as say, procurement synergies when you first close the deal, but we feel pretty confident that in the medium and long term that we can deliver value there.

    因此,我們確實相信,隨著我們的前進,我們在那裡有一些重大的優勢。正如你可以想像的那樣,這並不像你第一次完成交易時採購協同效應那樣快速實現,但我們非常有信心,從中長期來看,我們可以在那裡創造價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

  • Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

    Kevin William McCarthy - Partner

  • Tim, a question on your U.S. architectural business. If we look at most of the macro indicators for housing and construction, they're slowing markedly in recent months. On the other hand, you have some company-specific tailwinds in the form of a ramp of your Pro paint program at Home Depot. I think you also referenced increased shelf space at Glidden. So can you frame that out in terms of what you're anticipating maybe volumetrically as 2023 progresses in that vertical?

    蒂姆,關於你的美國建築業務的問題。如果我們看一下住房和建築業的大多數宏觀指標,它們在最近幾個月明顯放緩。另一方面,你有一些特定於公司的順風,其形式是 Home Depot 的 Pro 油漆程序的斜坡。我想您還提到了 Glidden 增加的貨架空間。那麼,隨著 2023 年在該垂直領域的進展,您能否根據您對體積的預期來構建它?

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Kevin, this is Vince. Let me just start on the macro. Again, what we're seeing, which I think has been pretty chronicle, is new housing starts and leading indicators, certainly pointing down. We really have to bifurcate that. Single-family housing starts are significant, significantly down. Multifamily, we expect to turn down, and they're starting to turn out, but there's still going to be growth. Multifamily completions, again, paints at the end of the cycle here. There's still completions that will carry us well into the year. Tim mentioned earlier on the commercial side, commercial new build, again, for the -- the first half of the year should be constant, if not longer. And then commercial repaint is solid right now. And there's a backlog on that. So those are the macro signs and we do have some PPG-specific items that Tim's going to talk about.

    是的,凱文,這是文斯。讓我從宏觀開始。再一次,我們所看到的,我認為已經是編年史,是新的房屋開工和領先指標,肯定是向下的。我們真的必須將其分開。單戶住宅開工率顯著,顯著下降。多戶家庭,我們預計會下降,他們開始出現,但仍有增長。多戶住宅的完工,再次在這裡的周期結束時進行繪畫。仍然有完成的工作將使我們順利進入這一年。蒂姆早些時候在商業方面提到過,商業新建,同樣,對於 - 今年上半年應該保持不變,如果不是更長的話。然後商業重繪現在是可靠的。這方面有積壓。所以這些是宏觀標誌,我們確實有蒂姆要談論的一些 PPG 特定項目。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes Kevin, the PPG specifics, you know well about the THD Depot Pro program, and we expect double digits from that program again this year after strong double digits last year. The other one, we've got a nice additional retail win. Our customer is going to announce it first, but you should hear a -- in weeks, possibly months here of what that is, that will help offset some of the other things that Vince mentioned. And then the spray paint win for us with that innovation award at the Home Depot is that we're excited about opportunity to not only leverage that specific product, but expand that offering either further.

    是的,凱文,PPG 的細節,你很了解 THD Depot Pro 計劃,我們預計繼去年強勁的兩位數之後,今年該計劃將再次出現兩位數。另一個,我們有一個不錯的額外零售勝利。我們的客戶將首先宣布它,但您應該會在數週內,可能數月內聽到,這將有助於抵消 Vince 提到的其他一些事情。然後,噴漆在 Home Depot 獲得創新獎,我們很高興有機會不僅利用該特定產品,而且進一步擴展該產品。

  • But when you put it all together, Kevin, we are expecting net-net for volumes in that space to be down. But of course, sales to be up with the price offsetting the difference.

    但是,當你把它們放在一起時,凱文,我們預計該領域的交易量會下降。但當然,銷售額要與價格相抵消。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

  • Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

    Frank Joseph Mitsch - President

  • First, I want to extend my sympathies to the PPG's family on the passing of Bill Hernandez. He really was a great, great guy. Tim, I appreciate your answer on the full year EPS question, for sure, given all the uncertainties. But you already indicated that you expect European earnings will be up year-over-year in the second quarter. And you also mentioned that your folks on the ground in China are expecting China to really pick up come April. And so I'm wondering, is part of your calculus that we will likely see higher year-over-year EPS in the second quarter?

    首先,我想就 Bill Hernandez 的去世向 PPG 的家人表示同情。他真的是一個非常非常棒的人。蒂姆,考慮到所有的不確定性,我當然感謝你對全年每股收益問題的回答。但您已經表示,您預計第二季度歐洲收益將同比增長。你還提到,你在中國的當地人期待中國在 4 月份真正好起來。所以我想知道,您的計算是否是我們可能會在第二季度看到更高的每股收益同比增長?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, again, Frank, first of all, thanks for the call out to Bill Hernandez, a loved PPG partnered here for many years. and just a world-class CFO and great human being and been a tragic and sudden loss this past weekend. So thank you for calling that out. Frank, at the end of the day, the uncertainty at this point with what's happening with China and when and what's happening with Europe and to what degree, and what's happening to raw material pricing and the specificity of that raw material pricing, as you know, can change our earnings profile fairly significantly, we're just not in a position right now to put out a statement on Q2 EPS. That said, as I said earlier, I believe we've got a hangover in Q1, but a number of those, let's call them, earnings levers start to come due in Q2.

    好吧,弗蘭克,首先,再次感謝比爾埃爾南德斯的電話,他是一位深受喜愛的 PPG,在這里合作多年。只是一位世界級的首席財務官和偉大的人,在過去的周末是一個悲慘的突然損失。所以謝謝你提出來。弗蘭克,歸根結底,目前的不確定性包括中國發生的事情、歐洲發生的事情以及發生的程度、原材料定價的變化以及原材料定價的特殊性,正如你所知,可以相當顯著地改變我們的收益狀況,我們現在還不能發布關於第二季度每股收益的聲明。也就是說,正如我之前所說,我相信我們在第一季度有宿醉,但其中一些,我們稱之為盈利槓桿在第二季度開始到期。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Frank, this is Vince. We do give this up. If you look at our profile of countries, China is one of our largest countries for sure. So there's still uncertainty there as we pointed out, and Tim pointed out in the opening remarks about the timing of the opening. Right now, we certainly hope March is a strong month. Definitely too hard to predict April, which is Q2 is typically a very good quarter in China. So no position at this point to provide any real line on that at this point.

    是的,弗蘭克,這是文斯。我們確實放棄了。如果你看看我們的國家概況,中國肯定是我們最大的國家之一。因此,正如我們指出的那樣,那裡仍然存在不確定性,蒂姆在開場白中指出了開幕時間。現在,我們當然希望三月是一個強勁的月份。絕對很難預測 4 月份,即第二季度在中國通常是一個非常好的季度。因此,目前沒有任何立場可以提供任何關於這一點的實際情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Josh Spector of UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

  • Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

    Joshua David Spector - Equity Research Associate - Chemicals

  • I just have a couple of follow-ups here. First, do you think you can achieve the low end of your margin targets this year in 2023 on average? And second, if you could comment on your ability to hold prices across the businesses as we move through this year? And any comments there versus why this might be different versus prior cycles?

    我這裡只有幾個後續行動。首先,您認為您平均可以在 2023 年實現今年利潤率目標的低端嗎?其次,您是否可以評論一下今年我們在整個業務中保持價格的能力?還有關於為什麼這可能與之前的周期不同的評論嗎?

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes i do Josh, one lever to help us improve earnings, again, we're not trying to give full year guidance on margins, and that's even a harder pass than top line. So we'll defer that til a little bit later into the year. Your question on pricing, I'm going to let Tim answer it.

    是的,我做喬希,一個幫助我們提高收益的槓桿,再次,我們並沒有試圖給出全年的利潤率指導,這比頂線更難通過。因此,我們會將其推遲到今年晚些時候。你關於定價的問題,我會讓蒂姆回答。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Josh, I'm confident in our team's ability to hold price similar to prior cycles. And with this cycle, possibly even more because of other inflation that is more persistent than we've had in other cycles. So that's -- we're confident in that.

    是的,喬希,我對我們團隊保持與之前週期相似的價格的能力充滿信心。在這個週期中,可能更多是因為其他通貨膨脹比我們在其他週期中更持久。這就是 - 我們對此充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

  • Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

    Vincent Stephen Andrews - MD

  • I think you commented in the prepared remarks that you've got auto builds flat in 1Q, and I think the consultants are still calling for it to be up about [2.25%]. So is that just something you're seeing in your own book? Or are you anticipating those consultant numbers to come lower?

    我想你在準備好的評論中評論說你在第一季度的汽車製造持平,我認為顧問們仍在呼籲它上漲約 [2.25%]。那麼這只是您在自己的書中看到的東西嗎?還是您預計這些顧問人數會減少?

  • And just, in addition to that, could you talk about how you anticipate the mix of auto builds this year? Is there going to be any different than last year? And would that be a plus or minus for you?

    除此之外,您能否談談您如何預測今年的汽車製造組合?會和去年有什麼不同嗎?這對你來說是加分還是減分?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Vincent. Well, first of all, historically -- I don't want to brag, but historically, we've actually nailed it pretty well compared to some of the the external consultants on the builds because we got so many people in the plants every day. We have visibility to operating schedules, and we happily talk to those folks. So the difference for us in Q1 specifically is China. Because our base case is that there will be, to some degree, a second wave after Chinese New Year of infections, and we saw what that did on the first wave to assembly plants and other suppliers. So that's our base case, and that may explain the difference between us and some of the consulting houses out there. But beyond that, we're expecting modest growth for the year, low single digits. And that's an area where there potentially could be upside, but our base case is low single digits.

    是的。謝謝,文森特。好吧,首先,從歷史上看——我不想吹牛,但從歷史上看,與建築中的一些外部顧問相比,我們實際上做得很好,因為我們每天都有很多人在工廠裡.我們了解運營時間表,並且很樂意與這些人交談。所以我們在第一季度的不同之處在於中國。因為我們的基本情況是,在某種程度上,中國農曆新年之後會出現第二波感染,我們看到了第一波對組裝廠和其他供應商的影響。所以這是我們的基本案例,這可以解釋我們和那裡的一些諮詢公司之間的區別。但除此之外,我們預計今年將適度增長,低個位數。這是一個可能有上升空間的領域,但我們的基本情況是低個位數。

  • Yes, just to give you some examples specifically of what happened on the ground in China, and why we are a bit cautious on the post-Chinese New Year. When things opened up in mid China -- I'm sorry, mid-December in China, we've got 19 PPG manufacturing sites across the country. And we went from near 0 absenteeism very quickly to above 50% absenteeism across that whole network. And that has returned very rapidly to near 0 in a period of about 2.5 to 3 weeks. And we saw that same in some of our other suppliers, assembly plants, you name it. So we've lived it, we've seen the data, and we believe that as people travel to the families -- there's more travel than the last 3 years across China for Chinese New Year. As they travel to some of the more remote villages to visit their families in return, we do believe there will be a short but acute second wave. And so that's why we're a bit more cautious. And as Vince mentioned, March is a huge month normally for our China business.

    是的,只是舉一些具體的例子來說明中國發生的事情,以及為什麼我們對農曆新年過後有點謹慎。當事情在中國中部開放時——對不起,12 月中旬在中國,我們在全國有 19 個 PPG 製造基地。我們從接近 0 的缺勤率迅速上升到整個網絡的 50% 以上的缺勤率。並且在大約 2.5 到 3 週的時間內迅速恢復到接近 0。我們在其他一些供應商、裝配廠中也看到了同樣的情況。所以我們親身經歷過,我們看到了數據,我們相信隨著人們的家庭出行——農曆新年期間中國各地的出行量比過去 3 年還要多。當他們前往一些更偏遠的村莊探望家人時,我們相信將會出現短暫但劇烈的第二波。所以這就是為什麼我們更加謹慎。正如 Vince 所說,三月通常對我們的中國業務來說是一個重要的月份。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

  • Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

    Aleksey V. Yefremov - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to clarify your raw materials commentary from earlier. It sounds like you are currently destocking sort of earlier raw materials purchases and will begin to purchase more perhaps in the second quarter so there could be more of a step down in the cost. Is that the right way to think about it?

    我只是想澄清一下你之前對原材料的評論。聽起來您目前正在對較早採購的原材料進行去庫存化,並且可能會在第二季度開始採購更多,因此成本可能會進一步下降。這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Aleksey, let me provide some -- maybe some clarity here. So we did see, as Tim mentioned, some modest sequential raw material deflation Q3 to Q4. We expect a -- we expect a further incremental deflation in Q4 to Q1. We were still up Q4 year-over-year. And we have to work that deflation through our inventory, which will take us likely through the first quarter before we see that impact on our P&L. And so that's, I think, what we're trying to articulate.

    是的。 Aleksey,讓我提供一些——也許這裡有一些澄清。因此,正如蒂姆所提到的,我們確實看到了第三季度至第四季度一些適度的連續原材料通縮。我們預計 - 我們預計第四季度至第一季度將進一步增加通貨緊縮。第四季度我們仍然同比增長。我們必須通過我們的庫存來應對通貨緊縮,這可能會讓我們度過第一季度,然後我們才能看到它對我們損益表的影響。所以,我認為,這就是我們要表達的意思。

  • We do have -- as Tim mentioned, we do have efforts underway to optimize our working capital, primarily our inventory. We ended July or June with seemingly high inventory levels. We worked in the second half of the year to work those down, and we're still working those down as we get into the first quarter of 2023. So they're still above what we want to be our target range. So we're still going through various destocking depending on the region, depending on the product. So we will have crimped raw material purchases in Q1 and likely some crimped on material purchases in Q2 as well.

    我們確實有 - 正如蒂姆提到的那樣,我們確實正在努力優化我們的營運資金,主要是我們的庫存。我們在 7 月或 6 月結束時庫存水平看似很高。我們在今年下半年努力降低這些成本,並且在進入 2023 年第一季度時我們仍在努力降低這些成本。因此它們仍然高於我們希望達到的目標範圍。因此,我們仍在根據地區和產品進行各種去庫存。因此,我們將在第一季度縮減原材料採購,並可能在第二季度縮減材料採購。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Roberts of Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Roberts。

  • John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

    John Ezekiel E. Roberts - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask a question about auto refinish. You won 2,000 new body shops in 2022. Was that concentrated anywhere regionally? Or was there something else common to those shops that switched? And when you talk about 15% higher productivity, is that relative to the prior supplier to those shops? Or how are you defining that since you're leading competitors also talking about having productivity higher than the competition?

    我只是想問一個關於汽車修補漆的問題。您在 2022 年贏得了 2,000 家新的車身修理廠。這是否集中在區域的任何地方?還是那些轉換的商店有其他共同點?當您談論生產率提高 15% 時,這是相對於這些商店的先前供應商而言的嗎?或者你是如何定義的,因為你是領先的競爭對手,也談論生產率高於競爭對手?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, John. To your first question, our net wins on body shops are positive in all the major regions, U.S., Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and China. It's just proportion to our business that the vast majority of those are in the U.S. and Europe. Relative to the whole productivity question, the way we look at it is change is only as strong as its weakest link. And so every link on the refinish body shop throughput has to be strong in order to really drive what's most important to the body shop owner, and that's what they call key to key time. From the time you take the vehicle owner's keys until the time you hand those keys back to the vehicle owner. That is the one and only metric that is (inaudible).

    是的。謝謝,約翰。關於你的第一個問題,我們在美國、加拿大、歐洲、澳大利亞、新西蘭和中國等所有主要地區的車身修理廠淨利潤都是積極的。這與我們的業務成正比,其中絕大多數在美國和歐洲。相對於整個生產力問題,我們看待它的方式是變化的強度取決於它最薄弱的環節。因此,修補車身車間吞吐量的每個環節都必須強大,才能真正推動對車身車間老闆最重要的事情,這就是他們所說的關鍵時間關鍵。從您拿走車主的鑰匙到您將這些鑰匙交還給車主。這是唯一的指標(聽不清)。

  • So if you are incrementally faster in one of those steps, but slower in several others, such that your key to key time is 15% slower, than you're simply not as productive in the eyes of that -- in that body shop owner. And so we focus on that end-to-end with things like the digitized color match, our [Lake] digital system that really encompasses the whole body shop, the visualizer, optimized mixing to improve speed, eliminate waste.

    因此,如果您在其中一個步驟中逐漸加快速度,但在其他幾個步驟中速度變慢,例如您的關鍵時間慢了 15%,那麼您在那個修理廠老闆眼中的效率就沒有那麼高了.因此,我們專注於端到端的數字化配色、真正涵蓋整個車身車間的 [Lake] 數字系統、可視化器、優化混合以提高速度、消除浪費。

  • And another thing that's really important to the body shop owners right now that PPG's value proposition delivers and some of our competitors don't, is you're actually simplifying some of those steps with things like MoonWalk and the visualizer so that the constrained flavor of the professional painter doesn't always have to be the one to do that. You open it up to other labor that can do that and that adds additional productivity of the body shops. So again, the most important thing is that key to key time, and that's where we have the 15% advantage.

    另一件對車身修理廠老闆來說非常重要的事情是,PPG 的價值主張提供了而我們的一些競爭對手沒有提供,您實際上正在使用諸如 MoonWalk 和可視化工具之類的東西簡化其中的一些步驟,從而使受限的味道專業畫家並不總是必須做那件事。你向其他可以做到這一點的勞動力開放,這會增加車身修理廠的額外生產力。因此,再次重申,最重要的是關鍵時間的關鍵,這就是我們擁有 15% 優勢的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar。

  • Prashant N. Juvekar - Global Head of Chemicals & Agriculture Research and MD

    Prashant N. Juvekar - Global Head of Chemicals & Agriculture Research and MD

  • Tim, clearly, the housing market is slowing down, whether you look at new homes or existing home sales. Have you seen a slowdown in the contractor business? The contractor business was robust. Last couple of summers. They had a huge backlog that they were working from COVID. As that backlog is worked down, do you expect some slowing in the contractor business?

    蒂姆,很明顯,無論是新房銷售還是現房銷售,房地產市場都在放緩。您是否看到承包商業務放緩?承包商業務強勁。最後兩個夏天。他們有大量積壓工作,他們正在處理 COVID。隨著積壓工作的減少,您預計承包商業務會有所放緩嗎?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, P.J. We have already seen a slowdown in contractors that are primarily focused on new housing. That's a (inaudible) reality that we all have to face. But again, that's a small portion of our business. Our backlogs or where we're strong, which is commercial and maintenance, literally have moved only incrementally, 13 weeks average backlog in Q3 to 12 weeks average backlog in Q4. So that's what's been the margin of error of our survey. So that's holding up much better than the new build. I believe part of that, if you think about a lot of commercial work and maintenance work and light industrial work, a lot of that work was near zero during COVID, while the DIY and res repaint was offsetting it.

    是的,P.J. 我們已經看到主要專注於新住房的承包商放緩。這是我們都必鬚麵對的(聽不清)現實。但同樣,這只是我們業務的一小部分。我們的積壓或我們強大的地方,即商業和維護,實際上只是增量移動,第三季度平均積壓 13 周到第四季度平均積壓 12 週。這就是我們調查的誤差幅度。所以這比新版本要好得多。我相信其中的一部分,如果你考慮大量的商業工作和維護工作以及輕工業工作,那麼在 COVID 期間,很多工作幾乎為零,而 DIY 和重新粉刷正在抵消它。

  • So there's still a lot of pent-up demand there. So I don't -- as I said earlier, the total volume is still going to be incrementally down. So I don't want to oversell that. But that's why some of our Pro business is holding up better.

    所以那裡仍然有很多被壓抑的需求。所以我不——正如我之前所說,總交易量仍將逐漸下降。所以我不想超賣它。但這就是為什麼我們的一些專業業務表現更好的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Leithead of Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Michael Leithead。

  • Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

    Michael James Leithead - Research Analyst

  • I just had a bit of a follow-up on the raw material basket. Can you just help us with how you think about that evolving broadly over the course of this year? I guess, with 1Q demand being pretty benign or restock volume was down 5-ish-percent or so, why do you think input costs aren't coming down faster? And if China does recover in 2Q and beyond pretty quickly, how do you think about what that does to your raw material costs?

    我剛剛對原材料籃子進行了一些跟進。您能否幫助我們談談您如何看待今年以來的廣泛發展?我猜,由於第一季度需求相當溫和或補貨量下降了 5% 左右,您認為為什麼投入成本沒有更快下降?如果中國在第二季度及以後確實很快復甦,您如何看待這對您的原材料成本的影響?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • So, Mike, I'll start, and Vince fill in some [lots of] color. I think there were some actual artificial demand in the second half of '22 that has maybe delayed some of the basic supply-demand economics. Because you'll recall that for most of '21 and the first half of '22, raw material availability was our #1 issue and a lot of our coatings peers' #1 issue. So as that availability improves, we all stocked up and got safety stock and, at the same time, demand started to collapse. So if things were kind in -- when I say collapse, I mean, particularly on the DIY and deco side, but big driver to the overall raw material change.

    那麼,邁克,我開始,文斯填上一些[很多]顏色。我認為 22 年下半年存在一些實際的人為需求,這可能延遲了一些基本的供需經濟學。因為您會記得,在 21 年的大部分時間和 22 年的上半年,原材料供應是我們的頭號問題,也是我們許多塗料同行的頭號問題。因此,隨著可用性的提高,我們都進行了儲備並獲得了安全庫存,與此同時,需求開始崩潰。因此,如果事情是好的 - 當我說崩潰時,我的意思是,特別是在 DIY 和裝飾方面,但整體原材料變化的重要推動力。

  • So I think a lot of companies, and you've seen that in what companies have said, ended the year with more inventory than they would like. So there was a bit of artificial demand that delayed what would be a normal supply-demand curve.

    所以我認為很多公司,你已經在公司所說的中看到了這一點,年底的庫存比他們想要的要多。所以有一點人為的需求延遲了正常的供需曲線。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Mike, let me just add some color here. So as we enter 2023, again, we're destocking. We know from a public commentary, a lot of our peers have excess inventory and are destocking. I do think there is this tug of war with the supplier base, typically, Q1 and Q2 are peak volume quarters for coatings raw material purchases. I don't think that's going to materialize in the same manner this year. So we'll have a lower buy -- PPG will have a lower buy in Q1. We have suppliers in virtually every week or every day for the past couple of weeks, indicating to us they have excess supply to give to us. And so we're going to maximize that to the benefit of our shareholders. And we'll negotiate our Q1 and Q2 pricing accordingly.

    是的,邁克,讓我在這裡添加一些顏色。因此,當我們進入 2023 年時,我們再次去庫存。我們從公眾評論中了解到,我們很多同行庫存過剩,正在去庫存。我確實認為與供應商群體存在這種拉鋸戰,通常,第一季度和第二季度是塗料原材料採購的高峰期。我認為今年不會以同樣的方式實現。所以我們的購買量會降低——PPG 在第一季度的購買量會降低。在過去的幾周里,我們幾乎每週或每天都有供應商,這表明他們有過剩的供應給我們。因此,我們將最大限度地提高股東的利益。我們將相應地協商第一季度和第二季度的定價。

  • We do believe, as we said for the last couple of quarters, there's ample supply in our supply base.

    我們確實相信,正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣,我們的供應基地有充足的供應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from [Silke] Cook with JPMorgan Chase.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 [Silke] Cook。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is [Silke] for Jeff. I was wondering whether you can discuss your volumes and your price and your U.S. architectural stores? And secondly, I was wondering whether you can talk about what's happening in the packaging business?

    這是 Jeff 的 [Silke]。我想知道你是否可以討論你的數量和價格以及你的美國建築商店?其次,我想知道您是否可以談談包裝行業正在發生的事情?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. So the stores pricing, we've raised price there multiple times, and we held that price throughout the year. And 2023, it will depend on what happens from an inflation standpoint, but that's one of the businesses where we moved fairly quickly to keep up with cost inputs. On packaging, we did have strong margin recovery in that business throughout '22, and we expect that to continue in 2023. We do see some softness there in pockets around the world, driven by -- in China, it's the lockdowns and in Europe, it's just consumer confidence in beverage spending. So we have seen some softness in volume, but strong margin recovery. And we also continue to convert to our (inaudible) Pro BPA-free content material, and we've had some nice wins in that beverage space, that will be launched as we move through this year. But overall, at a high level, good margin recovery, some softness in demand around the world.

    當然。所以商店定價,我們在那裡多次提高價格,我們全年都保持這個價格。到 2023 年,這將取決於從通貨膨脹的角度來看會發生什麼,但這是我們迅速採取行動以跟上成本投入的業務之一。在包裝方面,我們在整個 22 年確實在該業務中實現了強勁的利潤率復甦,我們預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。我們確實看到全球範圍內的一些疲軟,其驅動因素是——在中國,這是封鎖和在歐洲,這只是消費者對飲料支出的信心。因此,我們看到成交量有些疲軟,但利潤率回升強勁。我們還繼續轉換為我們的(聽不清)Pro BPA-free 內容,我們在飲料領域取得了一些不錯的勝利,將在今年推出。但總體而言,在高水平上,利潤率恢復良好,全球需求有些疲軟。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Arun Viswanathan。

  • Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Arun Shankar Viswanathan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I guess my question is about some framework you've provided in the past. If we go back maybe a year, 1.5 years ago, you were discussing maybe $9 of earnings for 2023. Do you see that as still maybe a possibility a couple of years out? That would imply another $400 million, $500 million of EBIT on top of where you are. So what's the framework to get back there? Is it kind of that high teens EBIT margin and maybe the recovery of the 10% volume? Or would you need more than that to get back? And is that still maybe again available in a couple of years' time?

    我想我的問題是關於您過去提供的一些框架。如果我們回到一年,1.5 年前,您正在討論 2023 年的收入可能為 9 美元。您是否認為這在幾年後仍有可能?這將意味著在您所在的位置之上還有 4 億美元、5 億美元的息稅前利潤。那麼回到那裡的框架是什麼?是不是有點高十幾歲的息稅前利潤率,也許是 10% 的回升?或者你需要更多才能回來嗎?幾年後它是否仍然可用?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Arun, I've said before, I believe that the $9 EPS is when, not if, and I stand behind that. And that's because the fundamentals are there. We have a portfolio that has earnings power that has yet to be released. And I won't give you my entire 10-point plan that will get us there, but you've still got recovery in some of our better businesses, aerospace, auto, refinish.

    是的。阿倫,我之前說過,我相信 9 美元的每股收益是什麼時候,而不是如果,我支持這一點。那是因為基本面就在那裡。我們的投資組合具有尚未釋放的盈利能力。我不會給你我的整個 10 點計劃,但你仍然可以在我們的一些更好的業務、航空航天、汽車、修補中恢復。

  • Let me talk about auto for a second without going too far off topic here. But if you take a 6-year run rate of global builds before COVID, compared to the -- I'm sorry, 2021, '22, there's 40 million fewer cars that were built during that 3-year period compared to the 6 year before. So everybody has their guess as to how much of that 40 million will be made up over time, but it's not 0. And so that business has a lot of volume recovery to go. We've got the price/cost momentum. You've heard about our restructuring, acquisition synergies, some of the technology innovation, productivity, sustainable products that will drive share growth.

    讓我先談談汽車,但不要離題太遠。但是,如果您採用 COVID 之前 6 年的全球生產運行率,與——抱歉,2021 年,22 年相比,與 6 年相比,這 3 年期間生產的汽車數量減少了 4000 萬輛前。因此,每個人都在猜測這 4000 萬美元中有多少會隨著時間的推移而得到彌補,但它不是 0。因此,該業務需要大量恢復。我們有價格/成本動力。你聽說過我們的重組、收購協同效應、一些技術創新、生產力和可持續產品,這些將推動份額增長。

  • And then just broader volume recovery, we feel confident that the $9 is a when not if.

    然後只是更廣泛的成交量恢復,我們相信 9 美元是一個不是如果的時候。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • And just Arun -- just a couple of comments. [If we actually look at a little more near term. So if you look at 2022, we have to remind -- Tim mentioned this earlier, but it's a good reminder. We really saw Europe fall really the back half of March. So we're going to come up against some recession type volumes here in a couple of weeks. We remind everybody that, in Q2, China was shut down, industrial-wise, for almost 2 months. So again, we don't think 2022 was representative in China of a traditional -- even a compressed run rate on GDP growth. So those 2 outside of aerospace, outside of refinish, we think have some opportunities to contribute. And again, as Tim mentioned earlier, we expect very good leverage above historical average leverage as volumes return in any business.

    Arun 只是一些意見。 [如果我們真的看得更近一些。所以如果你看看 2022 年,我們必須提醒——蒂姆早些時候提到過這一點,但這是一個很好的提醒。我們真的看到歐洲在 3 月後半月真正下跌。因此,我們將在幾週內在這裡遇到一些衰退類型的交易量。我們提醒大家,在第二季度,中國在工業方面關閉了將近 2 個月。因此,我們再次重申,我們認為 2022 年在中國並不代表傳統的——甚至是 GDP 增長的壓縮運行率。所以那些在航空航天之外,在修補之外的兩個,我們認為有一些貢獻的機會。再一次,正如蒂姆之前提到的那樣,隨著任何業務的交易量恢復,我們預計槓桿率將高於歷史平均槓桿率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

  • Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

    Daniel Dalton Rizzo - Equity Analyst

  • It's Dan Rizzo on for Lawrence. Just in terms of the backlog you mentioned, I think you said commercial backlog was 13 to 14 weeks. And then I think in the comments, you said a $200 million backlog in aerospace. I was -- just for comparison purposes. How -- what does that mean like versus what, I guess, historically it's been?

    丹·里佐替勞倫斯上場。就你提到的積壓而言,我想你說商業積壓是 13 到 14 週。然後我想在評論中,你說在航空航天領域有 2 億美元的積壓。我是 - 只是為了比較目的。怎麼樣 - 這意味著什麼,我想,歷史上它是什麼?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Dan, historically, that 12-, 13-week for U.S. pro painters is actually still high. So that will offset some of the negative volume in some of the other segments. I can tell you that in my short 35.5 years with PPG, I don't remember the aerospace backlogs ever being this strong. And that will take us -- that's pent-up demand for the foreseeable future.

    是的。丹,從歷史上看,美國職業畫家的 12、13 週實際上仍然很高。因此,這將抵消其他一些細分市場的一些負面影響。我可以告訴你,在我為 PPG 工作的短短 35.5 年裡,我不記得航空航天積壓訂單曾經如此強大。這將帶走我們——這是在可預見的未來被壓抑的需求。

  • Refinish, our refinish backlogs are still, particularly here in the U.S., probably 5x what they were pre-COVID. And it's not only a matter of us getting product out or getting raw materials in, our refinish customers' backlogs are high. I hope you haven't had any minor fender benders lately but if you have and you've taken a car to a body shop, they're likely to tell you it's 6 to 8 weeks before you're going to get that car serviced and taken care of. So the backlogs across all of those spaces are high, and in some cases, historically high.

    修補,我們的修補積壓仍然存在,尤其是在美國,可能是 COVID 之前的 5 倍。這不僅是我們生產產品或進口原材料的問題,我們的修補漆客戶的積壓訂單也很高。我希望你最近沒有遇到過任何輕微的擋泥板彎曲問題,但如果你遇到過並且你已經把車開到車身修理廠,他們可能會告訴你需要 6 到 8 週的時間才能對汽車進行維修並得到照顧。因此,所有這些空間的積壓都很高,在某些情況下,甚至達到歷史最高水平。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. I'll add some color, Dan, to the aerospace figures here. So we said before, aerospace is circa $1 billion business for us. This $200 million backlog is typically a small fraction of that. So this is almost another 2 months of activity. If we can get it done this year, we're still facing some supply challenges that are governing what we can do in a particular month or quarter, but it is a significant backlog relative to historic terms.

    是的。丹,我要為這裡的航天數字添加一些顏色。所以我們之前說過,航空航天對我們來說是大約 10 億美元的業務。這 2 億美元的積壓訂單通常只是其中的一小部分。所以這又是將近 2 個月的活動。如果我們今年能完成,我們仍然面臨一些供應挑戰,這些挑戰決定了我們在特定月份或季度可以做什麼,但相對於歷史而言,這是一個嚴重的積壓。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I'm going to grab that back 1 more or 1 more comment. The demand in aerospace is actually growing as we progress through the months and quarters. So you've got kind of the underlying demand is growing, which means that $200 million backlog is going to be there even longer. And recall that China, international travel only opened on January 8, so that's going to be another stimulus for aerospace demand.

    是的。我將收回 1 條或 1 條評論。隨著時間的推移,航空航天的需求實際上正在增長。所以你有一種潛在的需求在增長,這意味著 2 億美元的積壓訂單將持續更長時間。回想一下中國,國際旅行僅在 1 月 8 日開放,因此這將成為航空航天需求的另一個刺激因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mike Harrison of Seaport Research Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

  • Michael Joseph Harrison - MD & Senior Chemicals Analyst

    Michael Joseph Harrison - MD & Senior Chemicals Analyst

  • In the auto OEM business, a question on electric vehicles that hit 10% of global car sales last year. I was hoping that you could give us an update on some of the key products that you're providing for electric vehicles. Any recent wins or other metrics you can share on that portion of the auto OEM business?

    在汽車代工業務中,一個關於去年佔全球汽車銷量10%的電動汽車的問題。我希望您能向我們介紹您為電動汽車提供的一些關鍵產品的最新情況。關於這部分汽車 OEM 業務,您可以分享最近的勝利或其他指標嗎?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Mike, we're really excited about EV because we are winning where the EVs are winning, okay? We're winning where the EVs are gaining the most and that's China. You probably saw the journal article here not that long ago, it's something like 65% or so of the EVs sold last year were in China, and that's where we're having the most success. In fact, we're growing significantly with the largest EV producer in China. The way we're approaching is, it's not only about new technologies, it's about picking the winners on the EVs and selling, let's say, more conventional corrosion protection and beautification products to those customers.

    是的,邁克,我們對電動汽車感到非常興奮,因為我們正在贏得電動汽車獲勝的地方,好嗎?我們在電動汽車獲得最大收益的地方獲勝,那就是中國。你可能不久前在這裡看到了這篇期刊文章,去年售出的電動汽車中大約有 65% 來自中國,而這正是我們取得最大成功的地方。事實上,我們與中國最大的電動汽車生產商的合作正在顯著增長。我們接近的方式是,這不僅涉及新技術,還涉及挑選電動汽車的贏家,並向這些客戶銷售比方說更傳統的防腐蝕和美化產品。

  • So it's a combined effort of selling our new and differentiated products like our battery fire protection, and our dielectric coatings products to those customers, but also targeting and winning with the EV winners in the market.

    因此,這是向這些客戶銷售我們的新產品和差異化產品(例如我們的電池防火產品和我們的介電塗層產品)的共同努力,同時也瞄準並贏得了市場上的電動汽車贏家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question today comes from Jaideep Pandya with Enfield Research.

    我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Enfield Research 的 Jaideep Pandya。

  • Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

    Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty) partly because of the crazy raw material inflation you've seen. Now as raw materials tail off, are you not getting pushed back from your customers when you're trying to do these targeted pricing, especially in a demand environment, which has at least changed and has slowed? That's my first question.

    (技術難度)部分原因是你看到的瘋狂的原材料通脹。現在,隨著原材料的減少,當您嘗試進行這些有針對性的定價時,尤其是在至少已經發生變化並且已經放緩的需求環境中,您是否沒有被客戶拒絕?這是我的第一個問題。

  • And the second question really is on protective. Could you just tell us like what is the backlog in marine and protective these days?

    第二個問題確實是關於保護的。你能告訴我們這些天海洋和防護方面的積壓情況是多少嗎?

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Jaideep, I'm sorry, the beginning of your first question kind of -- I apologize, but if maybe you could repeat your first question for us, please.

    Jaideep,對不起,你的第一個問題的開頭有點——我很抱歉,但如果你能為我們重複你的第一個問題,請。

  • Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

    Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

  • Yes, sure. Sure. So my first question is just on the pricing.

    是的,當然。當然。所以我的第一個問題只是關於定價。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • I get the first question.

    我得到第一個問題。

  • Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

    Jaideep Mukesh Pandya - Analyst

  • Yes. It's just on.

    是的。它剛剛開始。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So, Jaideep, I'll take it and then Vince, you can jump in. On pricing, you got to remember that the pricing that we've achieved over the last couple of years was to offset what's happened in inflation in the last couple of years. And our customers have visibility to what's happened to our net margins -- and so they have optics on where we are on a margin recovery standpoint and they also know when we have these discussions with them that we're not back to peak margins. And so it's not like we're going, in most cases, above and beyond that. So as we move forward, we'll continue to be competitive, and we'll continue to price to offset non-raw material inflation.

    是的。所以,Jaideep,我接受它,然後 Vince,你可以加入。關於定價,你必須記住,我們在過去幾年中實現的定價是為了抵消過去幾年通貨膨脹發生的事情年。我們的客戶可以看到我們的淨利潤率發生了什麼——因此他們可以看到我們在利潤率恢復的立場上所處的位置,他們也知道當我們與他們進行這些討論時,我們並沒有回到峰值利潤率。因此,在大多數情況下,我們並沒有超越這一點。因此,隨著我們前進,我們將繼續保持競爭力,我們將繼續定價以抵消非原材料通脹。

  • Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

    Vincent J. Morales - Senior VP & CFO

  • Before Tim answers the protective question, Jaideep, I think we have discussions with our customers and almost every business. And they want us to be a healthy supplier that continues to innovate and they understand that and again, get paid a fair price for innovative technology that typically helps them. And we're coming into a period of time, given the inflation in base and salary where our customers really value functional attributes of our coatings products. And again, they're pushing us -- not so much on products, they're pushing us to help them with their productivity right now, which is a much bigger cost pull for them, cost opportunity for them than the price on coatings. So again, we're in a lot of discussions with our customers about how to improve their productivity, which again is a key attribute for them.

    在 Tim 回答保護性問題之前,Jaideep,我想我們已經與我們的客戶和幾乎所有企業進行了討論。他們希望我們成為一個持續創新的健康供應商,他們明白這一點,並再次為通常對他們有幫助的創新技術獲得公平的報酬。考慮到基本工資和工資的通貨膨脹,我們正在進入一段時間,我們的客戶真正重視我們塗料產品的功能屬性。再一次,他們在推動我們——與其說是在產品上,不如說是在推動我們幫助他們提高生產力,這對他們來說是一個更大的成本拉動,對他們來說成本機會比塗料的價格要高。因此,我們再次與客戶討論如何提高他們的生產力,這對他們來說也是一個關鍵屬性。

  • Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

    Timothy M. Knavish - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. On your protective question, our protective and marine business actually had a very strong year last year. Even though there was volume degradation in Q4, that volume degradation was China because whether it's marine new builds or large petrochemical protective projects, a lot of those are done in China. So that will -- some of that will follow the China closing and then reopening curve. But beyond that, a couple of things are happening in protective. There is significant investment in LNG, all aspects of LNG, and that's that area uses a lot of our advantaged protective products. There's an infrastructure investment certainly coming in the U.S. and other countries that leads to future growth for the protective business.

    是的。關於你的防護問題,去年我們的防護和海洋業務實際上表現非常強勁。儘管第四季度出現了銷量下降,但銷量下降的是中國,因為無論是海洋新建項目還是大型石化保護項目,其中很多都是在中國完成的。所以這將 - 其中一些將遵循中國關閉然後重新開放的曲線。但除此之外,還有一些事情正在發生。液化天然氣投資很大,液化天然氣的各個方面,就是那個領域用了很多我們有優勢的防護產品。美國和其他國家肯定會進行基礎設施投資,這會導致防護業務的未來增長。

  • And then, finally, on a PPG-specific protective opportunity, we had a fantastic distribution network in Mexico, over 5,000 store locations that has historically been very heavily architectural and deco focused. Well, we're now leveraging more and more of that network to grow our protective business, which is how we're successful in that business in other countries like the U.S. and Canada. So that's a really great growth opportunity in the protective area that differentiates PPG.

    然後,最後,在 PPG 特定的保護機會上,我們在墨西哥擁有一個很棒的分銷網絡,超過 5,000 個商店位置歷來非常注重建築和裝飾。好吧,我們現在正在利用越來越多的網絡來發展我們的保護業務,這就是我們在美國和加拿大等其他國家/地區的業務取得成功的方式。因此,這是區分 PPG 的保護區的一個非常好的增長機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to John Bruno.

    目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給 John Bruno。

  • John Bruno - VP of IR

    John Bruno - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Emily. We appreciate your interest in PPG, this concludes our fourth quarter earnings call. Have a good day.

    謝謝你,艾米麗。我們感謝您對 PPG 的興趣,我們的第四季度財報電話會議到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。