PPG Industries Inc (PPG) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Lauren, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter PPG Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫勞倫，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加第二季度 PPG 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Bruno, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁約翰布魯諾。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Lauren, and good morning, everyone. Once again, this is John Bruno. We appreciate your continued interest in PPG and welcome you to our Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call.

謝謝你，勞倫，大家早上好。再一次，這是約翰布魯諾。感謝您對 PPG 的持續關注，並歡迎您參加我們的 2022 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。

Joining me on the call from PPG are Michael McGarry, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Tim Knavish, Chief Operating Officer; and Vince Morales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

與我一起接受 PPG 電話會議的還有董事長兼首席執行官 Michael McGarry； Tim Knavish，首席運營官；和高級副總裁兼首席財務官文斯·莫拉萊斯。

Our comments relate to the financial information released after U.S. equity markets closed on Thursday, July 21, 2022. We have posted detail commentary and accompanying presentation slides on the investor center of our website, ppg.com. The slides are also available on the website for this call and provide additional support to the brief opening comments Michael will make shortly. Following management's perspective on the company's results for the quarter, we will move to a Q&A session.

我們的評論與 2022 年 7 月 21 日星期四美國股市收盤後發布的財務信息有關。我們已在我們網站 ppg.com 的投資者中心發布了詳細評論和隨附的演示幻燈片。這些幻燈片也可在本次電話會議的網站上獲得，並為邁克爾將很快發表的簡短開場評論提供額外支持。根據管理層對公司本季度業績的看法，我們將進入問答環節。

Both the prepared commentary and discussion during the call may contain forward-looking statements reflecting the company's current view of future events and their potential effect on PPG's operating and financial performance. These statements involve uncertainties and risks which may cause actual results to differ. The company is under no obligation to provide subsequent updates to these forward-looking statements.

電話會議期間準備好的評論和討論都可能包含反映公司當前對未來事件的看法及其對 PPG 運營和財務業績的潛在影響的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及可能導致實際結果不同的不確定性和風險。公司沒有義務提供這些前瞻性陳述的後續更新。

This presentation also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. The company has provided in the appendix of the presentation materials, which are available on our website, reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. For additional information, please refer to PPG's filings with the SEC.

本演示文稿還包含某些非公認會計原則財務措施。公司已在我們網站上提供的演示材料的附錄中提供了這些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的對賬。如需更多信息，請參閱 PPG 向 SEC 提交的文件。

Now let me introduce PPG Chairman and CEO, Michael McGarry.

現在讓我介紹 PPG 董事長兼首席執行官 Michael McGarry。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to our Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I hope you and your loved ones are remaining safe and healthy. I will provide some comments to supplement the detailed financial results we released last evening.

謝謝你，約翰，大家早上好。歡迎您參加我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。我希望您和您所愛的人保持安全和健康。我將提供一些評論來補充我們昨晚發布的詳細財務結果。

For the second quarter, we delivered record net sales of $4.7 billion, and our adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations were $1.81. To quickly summarize the quarter, our sales performance was an all-time record, driven by continued realization of real-time price increases that are now fully offsetting total cost inflation. Total cost inflation includes generational -- high commodity cost inflation, energy, logistics and other employee-related cost inflation. In addition to pricing, our top and bottom lines continue to benefit from recent strategic acquisitions, including our traffic solutions business, which delivered a record quarter.

第二季度，我們實現了創紀錄的 47 億美元的淨銷售額，我們調整後的持續經營業務攤薄後每股收益為 1.81 美元。快速總結本季度，我們的銷售業績創歷史新高，這得益於實時價格上漲的持續實現，現在完全抵消了總成本通脹。總成本通脹包括代際——高商品成本通脹、能源、物流和其他與員工相關的成本通脹。除了定價之外，我們的收入和利潤繼續受益於最近的戰略收購，包括我們的交通解決方案業務，該業務實現了創紀錄的季度業績。

We achieved strong sales results despite softening consumer demand in Europe, longer-than-anticipated COVID-related disruptions in China and unfavorable currency translation. While we included the European demand realities in our financial guidance we issued in April, the impact of the extended China restrictions and the currency translation was negative by about $0.10 per share versus our original guidance.

儘管歐洲消費者需求疲軟、中國與 COVID 相關的中斷時間長於預期以及貨幣換算不利，但我們仍取得了強勁的銷售業績。雖然我們在 4 月發布的財務指導中納入了歐洲需求現實，但中國限制擴大和貨幣換算的影響與我們最初的指導相比為每股負約 0.10 美元。

Our sales were aided by above-market volumes in several of our end-use markets, including our PPG Comex business, which delivered another record quarter as concessionaires continue to add new locations. In addition, our global automotive refinish, traffic solutions and U.S. packaging coatings businesses each set all-time quarterly sales record in the second quarter.

我們的銷售得益於我們幾個最終用途市場的高於市場的銷量，包括我們的 PPG Comex 業務，隨著特許經營商繼續增加新的地點，該業務創造了另一個創紀錄的季度。此外，我們的全球汽車修補漆、交通解決方案和美國包裝塗料業務均在第二季度創下季度銷售記錄。

This highlights one specific example of PPG technologically advanced products. That is, our packaging business, where we have won positions on about 75% of the new metal can packaging lines in North America over the past 2 years.

這突出了 PPG 技術先進產品的一個具體例子。也就是說，我們的包裝業務，在過去 2 年中，我們在北美新金屬罐包裝生產線上贏得了約 75% 的職位。

Also, our aerospace business continues to benefit from year-over-year improvements in domestic travel in various countries, resulting in higher aftermarket demand. And we expect further aftermarket and OEM growth as the industry demand remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

此外，我們的航空航天業務繼續受益於各國國內旅行的逐年改善，從而導致售後市場需求增加。由於行業需求仍遠低於大流行前的水平，我們預計售後市場和 OEM 將進一步增長。

Although still challenging, commodity supply disruptions continued to ease in the quarter, and we expect further improvements as we progress through the second half of 2022. This includes much better raw material availability as inventories at most of our suppliers have vastly improved.

儘管仍然具有挑戰性，但本季度商品供應中斷繼續緩解，我們預計隨著我們在 2022 年下半年的進展，進一步改善。這包括更好的原材料供應，因為我們大多數供應商的庫存已大大改善。

We achieved adjusted earnings that were toward the upper end of our April financial guidance and would have been in line with the second quarter of 2021 if not for the negative impact of foreign currency translation. This reflects the benefit of our strong commercial discipline regarding pricing and continued focus on cost management.

我們實現了接近 4 月份財務指導上限的調整後收益，如果沒有外幣換算的負面影響，本應與 2021 年第二季度一致。這反映了我們在定價方面強大的商業紀律和持續關注成本管理的好處。

Our earnings performance was aided by higher selling prices of about 12% year-over-year, marking the 21st consecutive quarter of higher selling prices. Our selling prices are now up over 15% on a 2-year stacked basis, reflecting our continued actions to offset persistent cost inflation. We anticipate by the end of 2022, we will fully offset all cumulative total inflation from 2021 and '22.

我們的盈利表現得益於銷售價格同比上漲約 12%，這是連續第 21 個季度銷售價格上漲。我們的銷售價格現在連續兩年上漲超過 15%，反映了我們為抵消持續成本上漲而採取的持續行動。我們預計到 2022 年底，我們將完全抵消 2021 年和 22 年的所有累計總通脹。

More importantly, we are converting higher prices to improve margins. During the quarter, our operating earnings improved each month. This strong progress is being reflected in the positive momentum of our operating margin recovery as we improved sequentially -- sequential quarterly margins by 200 basis points and anticipate further improvement in the third quarter.

更重要的是，我們正在轉換更高的價格以提高利潤率。在本季度，我們的營業收入每個月都有所改善。這一強勁進展反映在我們的營業利潤率恢復的積極勢頭上，因為我們連續提高了 - 連續季度利潤率提高了 200 個基點，並預計第三季度將進一步改善。

Also aiding our second quarter earnings performance was continued realization of acquisition-related synergies and cost savings from previously announced programs, which together, totaled about $30 million of incremental benefit.

同樣有助於我們第二季度的盈利表現的是繼續實現與收購相關的協同效應並從先前宣布的計劃中節省成本，這些計劃總共增加了約 3000 萬美元的收益。

During the second quarter, we also implemented cost mitigation initiatives in Europe, reflecting the slower demand in the region, and have additional contingency plans ready in the event of a broader economic slowdown. The efforts around cost management resulted in a reduction of our overall -- of our selling and general -- cost by 100 basis points as a percent of sales compared to the prior year second quarter.

在第二季度，我們還在歐洲實施了降低成本的舉措，以反映該地區需求放緩，並準備好額外的應急計劃，以應對更廣泛的經濟放緩。與去年第二季度相比，圍繞成本管理的努力導致我們的整體（我們的銷售和一般）成本佔銷售額的百分比降低了 100 個基點。

Our acquisitions are also performing well, including the traffic solutions business, which achieved 15% sales growth in the second quarter. We remain excited about future growth opportunities for this business as, in the next few years, we anticipate increased infrastructure spending and expect further U.S. adoption of mandatory expansion of traffic markings for safety purposes.

我們的收購也表現良好，包括交通解決方案業務，該業務在第二季度實現了 15% 的銷售額增長。我們對這項業務的未來增長機會仍然感到興奮，因為在未來幾年，我們預計基礎設施支出會增加，並預計美國將進一步採用出於安全目的強制擴大交通標誌。

During the quarter, we continued to progress our launch of the expanded PRO painter initiative with the Home Depot. Albeit later than we wanted in the paint season and despite continuing raw material constraints, we were able to fully load PPG products at all U.S. locations with our full PRO product assortment by the end of the quarter. We have already had some meaningful early wins of some large pro contractors, and our near-term target list includes more than 1,000 pro contractors that have expressed interest in buying our products at the Home Depot. We're excited about teaming up with the Home Depot, and collectively, we see opportunities for significant growth in the coming years.

在本季度，我們繼續推進與 Home Depot 合作推出的擴展 PRO Painter 計劃。儘管在油漆季節比我們想要的要晚，並且儘管原材料持續受到限制，但我們能夠在本季度末使用我們完整的 PRO 產品分類在美國所有地點完全裝載 PPG 產品。我們已經獲得了一些大型專業承包商的一些有意義的早期勝利，我們的近期目標名單包括 1,000 多家表示有興趣在 Home Depot 購買我們產品的專業承包商。我們很高興與家得寶合作，並且我們共同看到了未來幾年顯著增長的機會。

In the second quarter, our net debt was consistent with the first quarter, and our working capital was sequentially higher, mainly due to the higher dollar value of inventories, reflecting inflationary effects and higher receivables given our selling price increases. As the supply chain disruptions continue to improve in the coming quarters, we expect our working capital to return to more normal seasonal patterns and cash flow generation to improve as we progress through the end of the year.

在第二季度，我們的淨債務與第一季度一致，我們的營運資金環比增加，主要是由於庫存的美元價值較高，反映了通貨膨脹的影響以及我們的售價上漲導致的應收賬款增加。隨著供應鏈中斷在未來幾個季度繼續改善，我們預計我們的營運資金將恢復到更正常的季節性模式，並且隨著我們到年底的進展，現金流量將有所改善。

We repurchased $135 million of our stock at attractive prices during the quarter and continue to manage our acquisition pipeline. In addition, we have progressed our key capital expenditures during the second quarter focused on productivity and growth and now expect total spending to be about $450 million for the full year. Consistent with our past practices, we'll deploy cash in the most accretive manner for our shareholders, including some debt reduction.

我們在本季度以有吸引力的價格回購了 1.35 億美元的股票，並繼續管理我們的收購渠道。此外，我們在第二季度推進了以生產力和增長為重點的關鍵資本支出，現在預計全年總支出約為 4.5 億美元。與我們過去的做法一致，我們將以最有利的方式為我們的股東分配現金，包括減少一些債務。

In the second quarter, we further enhanced our company's corporate governance as we received the necessary shareholder vote threshold for Board declassification and elimination of supermajority voting requirements. We had worked on soliciting our shareholders for years to pass these proxy votes, and we're pleased to see our efforts pay off to further solidify our corporate governance.

在第二季度，我們進一步加強了公司的公司治理，因為我們獲得了董事會解密和取消絕對多數投票要求的必要股東投票門檻。多年來，我們一直在努力徵求股東通過這些代理投票，我們很高興看到我們為進一步鞏固公司治理所做的努力得到了回報。

In addition, we continue to advance our sustainability strategy and proudly announced PPG's commitment to setting near-term company-wide emission reductions in line with climate science through the Science Based Target Initiative. We plan to communicate new 2030 goals that will define our decarbonization strategy over the coming months.

此外，我們繼續推進我們的可持續發展戰略，並自豪地宣布 PPG 承諾通過基於科學的目標倡議，根據氣候科學設定近期全公司範圍內的減排量。我們計劃傳達新的 2030 年目標，這些目標將在未來幾個月內定義我們的脫碳戰略。

Looking ahead, in most major regions and end-use markets, underlying demand for PPG products is expected to remain solid. We anticipate strong sequential growth in Asia due to higher industrial production compared to the second quarter that was heavily impacted by COVID restrictions. We're closely monitoring the current COVID situation in China. And at this time, we only expect minimal impacts to our sales and operations from any further restrictions.

展望未來，在大多數主要地區和最終用途市場，對 PPG 產品的潛在需求預計將保持穩定。我們預計亞洲將出現強勁的連續增長，原因是與受 COVID 限制嚴重影響的第二季度相比，工業生產有所增加。我們正在密切關注中國當前的 COVID 情況。目前，我們只期望任何進一步的限制對我們的銷售和運營產生最小的影響。

In Europe, we expect economic conditions to remain soft, including normal seasonal demand trends versus the second quarter. Also, positive demand trends are generally expected to continue in North America, aided by stronger sequential automotive OEM production, further aerospace recovery and continuation of recent trends in auto refinish sales as we work to fulfill strong back orders.

在歐洲，我們預計經濟狀況將保持疲軟，包括與第二季度相比的正常季節性需求趨勢。此外，由於汽車 OEM 連續生產的強勁、航空航天業的進一步復甦以及汽車修補漆銷售近期趨勢的延續，我們普遍預計北美將繼續保持積極的需求趨勢，因為我們正在努力履行強勁的延期交貨訂單。

In the second half, year-over-year comparisons will be aided by the sharp declines we experienced last year during the height of the supply disruption that impacted several industries, particularly in the U.S. Outside of a few commodities, we expect supply chain conditions to continue to improve, including better raw material and transportation availability, as our suppliers' production capabilities are returning to a more normal condition.

在下半年，與去年同期相比，我們在供應中斷高峰期間經歷的急劇下降影響了多個行業，特別是在美國，我們預計除了少數大宗商品之外，供應鏈狀況將隨著我們供應商的生產能力恢復到更正常的狀態，我們將繼續改進，包括更好的原材料和運輸可用性。

Also in the second half and specific to PPG, we expect several businesses, including automotive OEMs and aerospace, to deliver strong growth due to large supply deficits and low inventories in these end-use markets. Other PPG-specific positives for the second half are continued acquisition synergy realization and additional cost savings from previously announced restructuring actions.

同樣在下半年，特別是 PPG，由於這些最終用途市場的大量供應短缺和低庫存，我們預計包括汽車原始設備製造商和航空航天在內的幾家企業將實現強勁增長。下半年其他 PPG 特有的積極因素是收購協同效應的持續實現以及先前宣布的重組行動帶來的額外成本節約。

In the third quarter, our 2-year stacked raw material inflation is expected to be about 40%, up a low single-digit percentage sequentially versus the second quarter. We'll continue to prioritize implementing further real-time selling price increases, and we expect a quicker offset versus historical lags, similar to what we delivered in the second quarter. Importantly, we expect that our sequential quarterly momentum on operating margin improvement will continue in the third quarter as we work back towards our historical margins. And also, even with significant unfavorable currency impacts expected to continue, resulting in about a $0.10 EPS impact in the third quarter, we are forecasting our adjusted earnings to increase on a year-over-year basis.

在第三季度，我們的 2 年疊加原材料通脹預計約為 40%，與第二季度相比，環比增長了低個位數百分比。我們將繼續優先考慮實施進一步的實時銷售價格上漲，並且我們預計會更快地抵消歷史滯後，類似於我們在第二季度交付的內容。重要的是，我們預計，隨著我們努力恢復歷史利潤率，我們在第三季度將繼續保持季度營業利潤率改善的勢頭。而且，即使預計將繼續存在重大的不利貨幣影響，導致第三季度每股收益約 0.10 美元，我們預計調整後的收益將同比增長。

While near-term challenges exist, I remain confident about the future earnings capabilities of PPG as the earnings catalysts that I referenced in the past remain fully intact, and we certainly see a path to returning to prior peak operating margins with opportunities to exceed them. As a reminder, this includes continued recovery in the automotive refinish, OEM and aerospace coatings businesses; continued sequential momentum of positive price versus cost as commodity raw material costs moderate. In the event of an economic downturn, they should moderate in a more rapid manner; a lower cost structure resulting in strong operating leverage on any sales volume growth; accretive earnings and further growth from our recent acquisitions.

儘管存在近期挑戰，但我對 PPG 未來的盈利能力仍然充滿信心，因為我過去提到的盈利催化劑仍然完好無損，我們當然看到了一條恢復之前營業利潤率峰值的道路，並有機會超越它們。提醒一下，這包括汽車修補漆、OEM 和航空塗料業務的持續復甦；隨著大宗商品原材料成本的緩和，價格與成本的持續正向勢頭持續。在經濟低迷的情況下，它們應該以更快的方式緩和；較低的成本結構導致對任何銷售量增長的強大運營槓桿；我們最近的收購帶來了增值收益和進一步增長。

In closing, as we look ahead, our team of 50,000 employees remain focused on serving our customers and supporting our stakeholders. Every day, I'm inspired by our teams around the world who are making it happen, are providing products that are helping to protect and beautify the world. Thank you for your continued confidence in PPG.

最後，展望未來，我們的 50,000 名員工團隊將繼續專注於為我們的客戶服務和支持我們的利益相關者。每天，我都受到我們世界各地的團隊的鼓舞，他們正在實現這一目標，提供有助於保護和美化世界的產品。感謝您一直以來對 PPG 的信任。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Now Lauren, would you please open the line for questions.

我們準備好的評論到此結束。現在，勞倫，請您打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Michael, you discussed a path to $9 of EPS in 2023. Has that now been pushed out given the current economic backdrop and weakening we're seeing in Europe?

邁克爾，您討論了 2023 年每股收益達到 9 美元的路徑。鑑於當前的經濟背景和我們在歐洲看到的疲軟，現在是否已經推遲了？

Well, David, it's certainly going to make it a little bit more challenging. But all the conditions are still there, right? You have refinish that's going to have an improved outlook. Miles driven are closing in on 2019 levels. Automotive OEM is still light. I mean, we got 24.5 million builds in China. We have a supply deficit in the U.S. The fleets haven't been rebuilt. So that's still there. Aerospace is coming back at a very strong level. And I'm sure you saw the Farnborough announcements about the new planes. So you're going to have not only aftermarket doing better, but OEM doing better.

好吧，大衛，這肯定會讓它更具挑戰性。但是所有的條件都還在，對吧？你有修補，這將有一個改善的前景。行駛里程接近 2019 年的水平。汽車代工依然清淡。我的意思是，我們在中國進行了 2450 萬次構建。我們在美國有供應短缺。船隊還沒有重建。所以它仍然存在。航空航天正在以非常強勁的水平回歸。我敢肯定你看到了範堡羅關於新飛機的公告。因此，不僅售後市場做得更好，OEM 也會做得更好。

You have the synergies we've talked about. We have $30 million in synergies just in the quarter alone, productivity, manufacturing. And then price raws, even though we haven't built that in, I'm sure somebody is going to ask later on the call about that. We see certainly raw material pricing getting a little weaker in China. We know it's going to get weaker in Europe, and that's going to free up additional.

你有我們談到的協同作用。僅在本季度，我們就有 3000 萬美元的協同效應，包括生產力、製造。然後是原始價格，即使我們還沒有內置它，我敢肯定有人會在稍後的電話會議上詢問這個問題。我們當然看到中國的原材料價格有所走弱。我們知道它在歐洲會變得更弱，這將釋放更多的空間。

And then we still have ability to have cash deployment. So I think all options are on the table, and I think we're still pretty confident that the outlook remains good for PPG.

然後我們仍然有能力進行現金部署。所以我認為所有的選擇都擺在桌面上，我認為我們仍然非常有信心 PPG 的前景仍然很好。

Our next question comes from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

On the weakness in Europe that you saw in 2Q and market concerns over a recession in the region, Michael, how do you think this particular business cycle could be different in a continued slowdown scenario, given that some of your end markets never fully recovered to begin with?

關於您在第二季度看到的歐洲疲軟以及市場對該地區衰退的擔憂，邁克爾，鑑於您的一些終端市場從未完全恢復到首先？

And then related to that, can you also comment on the current raw material supply situation in Europe? Just given concerns over, not just the supply of natural gas, but also issues with logistics and the water levels and so on and so forth in the rivers.

那麼與此相關，您能否也評論一下歐洲目前的原材料供應情況？只是擔心的不僅僅是天然氣的供應，還有物流和河流水位等問題。

Sure, Ghansham. Let's start with the fact that what's going to be different this time is, look, in the U.S., we have full employment and you have people with a lot of money in their pockets. And so even if the Fed overtightens, I'm still looking for people to maybe partially slow down. But it's not going to be anything significant. I would say that right now, there's a strong likelihood that people are going to continue to spend money in the U.S.

當然，甘沙姆。讓我們從這樣一個事實開始，這次不同的是，看，在美國，我們有充分的就業機會，而且人們的口袋裡有很多錢。因此，即使美聯儲過度收緊，我仍在尋找可能部分放慢速度的人。但這不會有任何意義。我想說的是，現在人們很有可能會繼續在美國花錢。

Certainly, we see a slowdown coming in Europe. I got to be honest, I'm not as worried as other people are about gas rationing in Europe. And the reason for that is, when you think about the size of the automotive business, the size of the chemical business, these are hugely important to people in Europe. And if you got into a significant gas rationing over there, you would have an economic event that would not be pleasant.

當然，我們看到歐洲正在放緩。老實說，我並不像其他人那樣擔心歐洲的天然氣配給。原因是，當您考慮汽車業務的規模、化工業務的規模時，這些對歐洲人來說非常重要。而且，如果您在那裡進行了重大的天然氣配給，您將遇到不愉快的經濟事件。

So I'm anticipating the government is going to ask people to turn their thermostats up substantially during the summer, they're going to turn them down in the winter. People are going to start conserving. So I'm not worried about raw material supply from that standpoint.

所以我預計政府會要求人們在夏天大幅調高恆溫器，他們會在冬天調低溫度。人們將開始保護。所以從這個角度來看，我並不擔心原材料供應。

The other thing I would tell you is I'm already starting to see some rotation of raw materials out of China to Europe in anticipation of this. So that's going to provide additional supply, and that additional supply will help ease some of the projected challenges. So I'm obviously paying attention, but I'm not nearly as worried as some people are.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，我已經開始看到一些原材料從中國輪換到歐洲，以應對這種情況。所以這將提供額外的供應，而額外的供應將有助於緩解一些預計的挑戰。所以我顯然在關注，但我並不像某些人那樣擔心。

And specific to the European demand, Ghansham, in the U.S., we are seeing, obviously, slowness. We were down about 10% in Q2. We're projecting to be down in Q3. And we have some markets that are improving on a go-forward basis, as Michael alluded to.

具體到歐洲的需求，美國的 Ghansham，我們顯然看到了放緩。我們在第二季度下跌了約 10%。我們預計第三季度會下降。正如邁克爾所暗示的那樣，我們有一些市場正在向前發展。

Our auto OEM business, we expect to improve certainly over the next, call it, 12 months. We know aerospace is improving in that particular region as well as globally. So we have some offsets to what's already a weak environment. And so again, on a go-forward basis, we expect some puts and takes.

我們的汽車 OEM 業務，我們預計在接下來的 12 個月內肯定會有所改善。我們知道航空航天在該特定地區以及全球範圍內都在改善。因此，我們對已經很弱的環境進行了一些補償。同樣，在前進的基礎上，我們預計會有一些看跌期權。

Our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Just back to a corollary that begs this question. There have been 3 variables affecting your margin outlook, including end market mix with refinish and aero improving, but still below or maybe just at '19 levels; some manufacturing inefficiencies, especially in the second half, due to auto OE; and then of course price cost.

回到一個引出這個問題的推論。有 3 個變量影響您的利潤前景，包括最終市場組合與修補漆和航空改進，但仍低於或可能僅處於 19 年的水平；由於汽車 OE，一些製造效率低下，尤其是在下半年；然後當然是價格成本。

When we take a step back and just think about these for this -- not only for the second half, but into 2023, going back to that $9 question, can you just give us the key highlights in how you're thinking about these, right here, right now? And perhaps just highlight how you're thinking about them a little bit differently versus the past 3 to 6 months?

當我們退後一步，只考慮這些——不僅是下半年，而是到 2023 年，回到那個 9 美元的問題，你能不能給我們一些關於你如何考慮這些的關鍵亮點，此時此刻？也許只是強調一下你對它們的看法與過去 3 到 6 個月有何不同？

Christopher, I mean, obviously, the mix is improving every single day. So that's a positive for us. As you know, refinish and aerospace are very good businesses for us. And you have improved pricing in automotive, which is improving that mix as well. So I think from that standpoint, that's going to be good.

克里斯托弗，我的意思是，顯然，這種組合每天都在改善。所以這對我們來說是積極的。如您所知，修補漆和航空航天對我們來說是非常好的業務。你提高了汽車的定價，這也在改善這種組合。所以我認為從這個角度來看，這會很好。

The second one. If you think about our manufacturing situation, we've had to adjust manufacturing schedules on very short notice, or no notice in some cases, because of supply disruptions, force majeures. And as supply gets better, we're able to plan better, scheduling is better. Obviously, COVID is not a challenge anymore. We don't have as many call-offs. So from that standpoint, our manufacturing is going to improve.

第二個。如果您考慮我們的製造情況，由於供應中斷和不可抗力，我們不得不在很短的時間內調整製造計劃，或者在某些情況下沒有通知。隨著供應變得更好，我們能夠更好地計劃，調度也更好。顯然，COVID 不再是一個挑戰。我們沒有那麼多的取消。所以從這個角度來看，我們的製造將會得到改善。

And as you see, our price is dropping to the bottom line. So margins improved 200 basis points in Q2. You're going to see a significant improvement in Q3. You're going to see an improvement in Q4. So from that standpoint, that is going to continue to be positive momentum. And we're expecting raw materials on a sequential basis only be like up low single digits in the third quarter. So I think there's a lot of positive momentum here, and I'm feeling pretty good about that.

如您所見，我們的價格正在跌至底線。因此，第二季度的利潤率提高了 200 個基點。您將在第三季度看到顯著改善。您將在第四季度看到改善。所以從這個角度來看，這將繼續是積極的勢頭。而且我們預計原材料在第三季度的連續增長只會像低個位數一樣。所以我認為這裡有很多積極的勢頭，我對此感覺很好。

And Christopher, I just wanted to -- this is Vince again. I just want to add that we are still down 10% in volume versus 2019. So again, you said we were close to parity, and just huge incremental margins on that volume recovery. Again -- and auto and aerospace are 2 of the biggest declines versus 2019 or pre-pandemic.

還有克里斯托弗，我只是想 - 又是文斯。我只想補充一點，與 2019 年相比，我們的銷量仍然下降了 10%。所以，你再說一次，我們接近平價，並且在銷量恢復方面只有巨大的增量利潤。再次——與 2019 年或大流行前相比，汽車和航空航天是降幅最大的兩個。

Our next question comes from John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

So I guess what I'd like to focus on is the price versus raws dynamic. I guess, can you help us to understand what portion of the portfolio still has more pricing that it needs to get to catch up? It seems like you did really well in 2Q. I guess I'm curious what else you need to kind of hit on.

所以我想我想關注的是價格與原材料的動態關係。我想，你能幫助我們了解投資組合的哪一部分還有更多的定價需要趕上？看來你在第二季度做得很好。我想我很好奇你還需要什麼。

And then equally important, it looks like you're on track for raws to be up about $2 billion or so over the last couple of years. I guess when we start to see raws coming off, I guess, how much of the pricing associated with that do you think you hold on to versus having to give back? Is there a way to think about that? Because it just seems like it's a really big number.

然後同樣重要的是，在過去的幾年中，您的 raws 似乎有望上漲約 20 億美元。我想當我們開始看到原始價格下降時，我想，與此相關的定價有多少你認為你會堅持而不是不得不回饋？有沒有辦法考慮這個？因為這似乎是一個非常大的數字。

Yes, John, this is Vince. I'll start, and then Michael could add some color. We still have targeted pricing that we will inject in Q3. Some businesses, we have perennial pricing that typically occurs toward the end of the season. So you'll see that both in performance. We still have some catch-up pricing in some of our industrial and auto businesses that will take place in the quarter. And so there will be higher -- we expect higher pricing on a percentage basis and certainly on a 2-year stack for Q3.

是的，約翰，這是文斯。我會開始，然後邁克爾可以添加一些顏色。我們仍有將在第三季度注入的目標定價。一些企業，我們有通常在季末發生的常年定價。所以你會在性能上看到這兩者。我們的一些工業和汽車業務仍將在本季度進行一些追趕定價。所以會有更高的價格——我們預計第三季度的定價會更高，而且肯定是 2 年的堆棧。

With respect to the inflation, I think your numbers are directionally correct in terms of the inflation we've absorbed over the past, call it, 18 and soon to be 24 months. We anticipate offsetting that fully with price, but not just that. As Michael mentioned in the opening remarks, we're offsetting logistics, we're offsetting employee-related inflation and so in packaging inflation. So again, our pricing will overcome that by the end of the year. And we typically have sticky pricing as we progress through the economic cycle.

關於通貨膨脹，我認為就我們過去吸收的通貨膨脹而言，你的數字在方向上是正確的，稱之為 18 個月，很快將是 24 個月。我們預計價格會完全抵消這一點，但不僅如此。正如邁克爾在開場白中提到的那樣，我們正在抵消物流，我們正在抵消與員工相關的通貨膨脹，以及包裝通貨膨脹。同樣，我們的定價將在今年年底之前克服這一問題。隨著經濟周期的推進，我們通常會有粘性定價。

So maybe, John, to add a little bit to that. Your premise that you're trying to understand is how much of this $2 billion-plus are we going to keep? The thing that we're talking to our customers about is raw material inflation is just one piece of this. And so when you add the things that Vince talked about, logistics, labor, energy, packaging costs, we need to continue to recover that.

所以，約翰，也許可以補充一點。您試圖理解的前提是，我們將保留這 20 億多美元中的多少？我們與客戶談論的事情是原材料通脹只是其中的一部分。因此，當您添加文斯談到的物流、勞動力、能源、包裝成本時，我們需要繼續恢復。

So I fully expect, and I will be fully engaged, and Tim will be fully engaged, with the businesses to ensure that we're going to be keeping a large percentage of this in our pocket. And that is a key deliverable for our business unit leaders, everybody is well aware of it. And it's been signaled well ahead of time, so this will not be a surprise to our customers. So I'm feeling pretty good.

所以我完全期待，我將全力投入，蒂姆將全力投入，與企業合作，以確保我們將大部分資金放在口袋裡。這對我們的業務部門負責人來說是一個關鍵的可交付成果，每個人都清楚這一點。而且它已經提前發出了信號，所以這對我們的客戶來說不會感到驚訝。所以我感覺很好。

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy from Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

In your guidance for the third quarter on Slide 10, you're baking in volume assumptions of flat to down a low single-digit percentage. I was wondering if you could just speak to the buildup to that assumption, maybe in terms of geography, assumptions around China lockdowns or lack thereof, European macro, but also in terms of your individual businesses and which ones you expect highest or weakest volume growth in the third quarter.

在幻燈片 10 的第三季度指導中，您將銷量假設從持平降至低個位數百分比。我想知道您是否可以就該假設的建立發表意見，可能是在地理、圍繞中國封鎖或缺乏封鎖的假設、歐洲宏觀方面，也可能是在您的個人業務方面，以及您預計哪些業務量增長最高或最弱在第三季度。

Yes, Kevin. This is Vince again. So on a year-over-year basis, probably a couple of big movers. Again, we expect Europe to be down double digits, close to double digits versus the prior year. But we do expect, if you recall, we did have the peak of the chip shortage in our automotive OEM business last year, and that's recovering. Not fully recovering, but it's recovering this year, Q3. We also have improvement in aerospace, as we've talked about several times already on the call. Those are 3 of the bigger movers, and then we have a variety of puts and takes by business.

是的，凱文。這又是文斯。因此，按年計算，可能有幾個大動作。同樣，我們預計歐洲將下降兩位數，與去年相比接近兩位數。但如果你還記得的話，我們確實預計，去年我們的汽車 OEM 業務確實遇到了芯片短缺的高峰，而且這種情況正在復蘇。沒有完全恢復，但今年第三季度正在恢復。我們在航空航天方面也有所改進，正如我們已經在電話會議上多次談到的那樣。這些是 3 個較大的推動者，然後我們有各種各樣的看跌期權。

On a sequential basis, what's important is we do expect -- for us, China was down for essentially 2 months in Q2. We do expect China to be fully up and running, or with just modest, very modest, impact from COVID in Q3. So that's the bigger -- biggest mover sequentially.

在連續的基礎上，重要的是我們確實預期 - 對我們來說，中國在第二季度下跌了將近 2 個月。我們確實預計中國將在第三季度全面啟動並運行，或者受到 COVID 的適度、非常適度的影響。所以這是更大的 - 最大的推動者。

Our next question comes from Josh Spector from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

I was wondering, within architectural coatings, could you discuss some of the volume differences in DIY versus trade markets? I guess, specifically looking at North America and Europe.

我想知道，在建築塗料中，您能否討論 DIY 與貿易市場的一些數量差異？我想，特別是在北美和歐洲。

And I guess given some of the commentary about Europe, where you're still seeing declines on technically easier comps from last year, what does that say about your thoughts about DIY and how that holds up in a recession this cycle, potentially?

而且我猜考慮到一些關於歐洲的評論，你仍然看到去年技術上更簡單的組合有所下降，這說明你對 DIY 的想法以及在這個週期的衰退中如何保持這種想法？

I'll take that one, Josh. This is Tim Knavish. Thanks for the question. The biggest driver of the volume issue in DIY is clearly Europe. We've seen a double-digit decline in DIY volumes in Europe. And frankly, we expect that to continue. We called it at the end of the last quarter, that was accurate, and we expect that same phenomenon to continue.

我要那個，喬希。這是蒂姆·克納維什。謝謝你的問題。 DIY 銷量問題的最大驅動力顯然是歐洲。我們已經看到歐洲的 DIY 銷量出現了兩位數的下降。坦率地說，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。我們在上個季度末稱它是準確的，我們預計同樣的現象會繼續存在。

The trade volumes in Europe are a bit stronger. It depends on some by country. We're seeing some softness in some countries of trade. And other countries like France, we continue to do very well on the trade side of the business. So that's more mixed.

歐洲的貿易量要強一些。這取決於某些國家/地區。我們看到一些貿易國家出現疲軟。和法國等其他國家一樣，我們在貿易方面繼續做得很好。所以情況更加複雜。

And when you come over to this side, to the United States, we've also seen DIY, I would call it more normalizing. Where Europe was down because of a number of issues, whether it was coming out of COVID or consumer confidence because of the war; here in the United States, it's more normalizing in a post-COVID environment.

當你來到這邊，來到美國，我們也看到了DIY，我會稱之為更正常化。歐洲由於許多問題而陷入低迷，無論是擺脫 COVID 還是戰爭導致的消費者信心；在美國這裡，它在後 COVID 環境中更加正常化。

Whereas in the trade side of the business here in architectural U.S., we still see very good backlogs. We do a survey of our professional painters every quarter. And about 80% of the professional painters that we surveyed here in the U.S. this quarter have as much or larger backlogs than they did last quarter. So DIY normalizing here, but still good trade backlogs.

而在美國建築行業的貿易方面，我們仍然看到非常好的積壓訂單。我們每季度對我們的專業畫家進行一次調查。我們本季度在美國調查的大約 80% 的專業畫家的積壓工作與上一季度一樣多或更多。所以這裡的 DIY 正常化，但仍然有很好的貿易積壓。

This is Vince. A couple of other color points here. In the U.S., we were still impacted early in the quarter in our U.S. architectural business by supply challenges. April, May are still in the heart of the paint season. And in Europe, based on what we've seen to date, we're very comfortable with our share position.

這是文斯。這裡還有其他幾個色點。在美國，我們的美國建築業務在本季度初仍受到供應挑戰的影響。四月，五月仍然是油漆季節的核心。在歐洲，根據我們迄今為止所看到的情況，我們對我們的份額非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch from Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

I appreciate the level of details. Coming to the use of cash, Tikkurila is rolling off as a driver as part of the M&A increase. And I know that M&A is important to PPG. You did mention that you stepped up buybacks in the quarter at attractive prices. But I'm just curious as to what the outlook is on the M&A front that's out there.

我很欣賞細節的水平。談到現金的使用，Tikkurila 作為併購增加的一部分正在逐步退出。我知道併購對 PPG 很重要。您確實提到您在本季度以有吸引力的價格加大了回購力度。但我只是好奇併購方面的前景如何。

Frank, this is Michael. The M&A front continues to be what I would call steady. You saw there were some deals done in the past 90 to 120 days. We obviously looked at those and decided those weren't value-creating from a PPG shareholder perspective.

弗蘭克，這是邁克爾。併購方面仍然是我所說的穩定。您看到在過去 90 到 120 天內完成了一些交易。我們顯然查看了這些，並認為從 PPG 股東的角度來看，這些並沒有創造價值。

And we continue to look at our portfolio. You probably noticed that we sold a couple of businesses. You saw we sold Eberle and another small one. And so we're always looking at our portfolio.

我們繼續關注我們的投資組合。您可能注意到我們出售了幾家企業。你看到我們賣了 Eberle 和另一個小的。所以我們一直在關注我們的投資組合。

So -- but we're going to do what's best. So this quarter, paying down debt and buying back a little stock made the most amount of sense. And we're going to continue to look at our portfolio and decide what we're going to do. The pipeline remains what I would call steady, and we're continuing to talk to the Board about the options that are out there.

所以 - 但我們會做最好的事情。所以本季度，償還債務和回購少量股票是最有意義的。我們將繼續審視我們的投資組合併決定我們將要做什麼。管道仍然是我所說的穩定，我們將繼續與董事會討論現有的選項。

Our next question comes from Laurent Favre from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Favre。

I had a question regarding this contingency plan on the European side. I mean, I hope you're right on, I guess, the lack of big curtailments of chemical production and all the mess that would be related to that. But I was wondering if you could talk about 2 things. One is how you're thinking about raw materials inventories and stocking up perhaps into a more turbulent time.

我有一個關於歐洲方面的應急計劃的問題。我的意思是，我希望你是對的，我猜，化學生產沒有大幅削減以及與此相關的所有混亂。但我想知道你是否可以談兩件事。一個是你如何考慮原材料庫存和庫存可能會進入一個更加動蕩的時期。

But also in terms of areas where you may have single sourcing. I know that there was a big surprise last year in the U.S. I'm wondering if you plan, from the U.S. side, and that now all of your European operations can run on dual sourcing, for instance, so that you can indeed import all those raw materials from elsewhere.

而且在您可能有單一採購的領域方面。我知道去年在美國有一個很大的驚喜。我想知道你是否計劃從美國方面，例如，現在你所有的歐洲業務都可以在雙重採購上運行，這樣你就可以真正進口所有那些來自其他地方的原材料。

So Laurent, this is Michael. First of all, it's virtually impossible to be dual source on everything because we make some unique chemistries. On those that we are single source, we have a contractual relationship with our suppliers to provide that protection that we need.

洛朗，這是邁克爾。首先，幾乎不可能對所有東西都進行雙重來源，因為我們製造了一些獨特的化學物質。對於我們是單一來源的供應商，我們與供應商建立了合同關係，以提供我們需要的保護。

But we have been in a mode of being conservative on inventories right now. In Europe though, we are going to be moving toward a mode of destocking over the next few months. We've already started to see availability of raw materials get better. We anticipate that prices, we've seen some prices already soften in China. We anticipate some softening coming up in Europe. And so the plants have already put in place contingency plans. They've enacted some to lower costs. And so from that standpoint, I think we feel very comfortable. We have some additional plans in place as well.

但我們現在對庫存一直處於保守的模式。不過，在歐洲，我們將在未來幾個月內轉向一種去庫存模式。我們已經開始看到原材料的供應情況變得更好。我們預計價格，我們已經看到中國的一些價格已經走軟。我們預計歐洲會出現一些疲軟。因此，這些工廠已經制定了應急計劃。他們已經制定了一些降低成本的措施。所以從這個角度來看，我認為我們感覺很舒服。我們還有一些額外的計劃。

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess I just wanted to go back to the bridge potentially to maybe $9 or something close to that in '23 or '24. If you think about that, that seems to be likely that it would have to be composed of something around $2.50 for Q2, Q3 and $2 for Q1, Q4. I guess is that correct? I mean, that would imply kind of like a 20% improvement on a quarterly run rate basis. And if you think about that 20%, is that maybe a 1/3 volume improvement and 2/3 kind of margin recovery from price cost? Or how should we think about that path to getting back to that kind of earnings power?

我想我只是想在 23 或 24 年以 9 美元或接近 9 美元的價格回到橋上。如果您考慮一下，這似乎很可能必須由 Q2、Q3 的 2.50 美元和 Q1、Q4 的 2 美元組成。我想這是正確的嗎？我的意思是，這意味著在季度運行率的基礎上提高了 20%。如果你考慮這 20%，這可能是 1/3 的銷量提升和 2/3 的價格成本恢復嗎？或者我們應該如何思考恢復這種盈利能力的途徑？

We'll try to take another stab at this, Arun. This is Vince. So look, we're down 10% in volume versus 2019. We expect the vast majority of that to return. And again, because some of these decremental items are in very large businesses for us. And businesses that are showing today, and we expect on a go-forward basis, good recovery momentum. Again, we talked about auto, we talked about aerospace. There are a couple more that are smaller. We do expect positive business mix as part of that equation as well.

我們會嘗試再試一次，阿倫。這是文斯。因此，看，與 2019 年相比，我們的銷量下降了 10%。我們預計其中的絕大多數都會回歸。再說一次，因為其中一些遞減項目對我們來說是非常大的業務。以及今天展示的企業，我們預計在前進的基礎上，復甦勢頭良好。再一次，我們談到了汽車，我們談到了航空航天。還有幾個更小。我們確實期望積極的業務組合也是該等式的一部分。

To your point on price raws recovery, we've talked about a couple of times. We're still down in Q3. On a cumulative basis, we expect to be at least at parity by the end of the year on price raws, so that will pick up several points.

關於價格原材料復甦的觀點，我們已經談過幾次了。我們在第三季度仍然處於下滑狀態。在累積的基礎上，我們預計到今年年底原材料價格至少會持平，因此這將回升幾個點。

And then I don't want to underemphasize what Michael talked about with respect to manufacturing. We typically have productivity improvements year-over-year from our manufacturing operations. If you look at the past 12 months, we've had decrements in manufacturing. So we expect to fully recover those decrements and move back to our legacy of producing productivity.

然後我不想低估邁克爾談到的製造方面的內容。我們的製造業務通常會逐年提高生產力。如果你看看過去的 12 個月，我們的製造業已經減少了。因此，我們希望完全恢復這些減量並恢復我們生產生產力的傳統。

So those 3 things, coupled with synergy capture and coupled with some cash deployment, gets us to the $9-plus of earnings power we've talked about.

因此，這三件事，再加上協同效應和一些現金部署，使我們獲得了我們所說的 9 美元以上的盈利能力。

Our next question comes from Prashant Juvekar from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Prashant Juvekar。

Yes. You talked about European DIY being slow. You've talked about that for a while. How did European industrial business do throughout the quarter? Did it slow down as the quarter progressed?

是的。你談到歐洲 DIY 很慢。你已經談了一段時間了。歐洲工業企業在整個季度的表現如何？隨著季度的進展，它是否放緩了？

And then a related question to that is, are you seeing a rebound in industrial activity in China? And do you think that China activity or industrial activity can grow if U.S. and Europe are slowing down?

然後一個相關的問題是，您是否看到中國工業活動出現反彈？如果美國和歐洲放緩，您認為中國的活動或工業活動會增長嗎？

Yes, P.J., we saw declines in architectural in Europe, obviously, as Tim talked about. Automotive on a year-over-year basis and our industrial business on a year-over-year basis were also down, let's call it mid-single digits, due to some of the same issues that caused what I'd call economic slowing in the region.

是的，P.J.，正如蒂姆所說，我們顯然看到了歐洲建築業的衰落。汽車同比下降，我們的工業業務同比下降，我們稱之為中個位數，原因是一些相同的問題導致了我所說的經濟放緩該區域。

On a go-forward basis, auto, we expect to recover at some point. It's still going to be choppy in the back half of the year in Europe. It's going to certainly recover in the U.S. and in China. Industrial activity, we expect at least at parity. We are seeing a very rapid recovery in China from the COVID shutdowns and expect growth on a year-over-year basis in Q3.

在前進的基礎上，汽車，我們預計會在某個時候恢復。歐洲在今年下半年仍將波濤洶湧。它肯定會在美國和中國復甦。工業活動，我們預計至少持平。我們看到中國從 COVID 關閉中迅速復蘇，並預計第三季度將同比增長。

With respect with Europe slowing, would China grow? Again, we think China is becoming more of an internally consumption market and we still feel good about the U.S. economy. So there are some offsets to the European slowing that would allow China to produce good industrial activity results.

在歐洲放緩的情況下，中國會增長嗎？同樣，我們認為中國正變得更像是一個內部消費市場，我們仍然對美國經濟感覺良好。因此，有一些抵消歐洲放緩的影響，這將使中國能夠產生良好的工業活動成果。

P.J., this is Michael. I think if you think about this from a China macro standpoint, the China government is under significant pressure right now because of some of these COVID lockdowns. And they're injecting money, reducing the amount of bank restrictions, and they're putting pressure on the building industry as well. So they are showing every sign to make sure that the local economies in China continue to recover. So I'm -- I feel pretty good about the fact that China is committed to having a better second half of the year than they had the first half of the year.

P.J.，這是邁克爾。我認為，如果您從中國宏觀的角度考慮這一點，中國政府現在正面臨著巨大的壓力，因為其中一些 COVID 封鎖。他們正在註入資金，減少對銀行的限制，他們也在給建築業施加壓力。因此，他們正在展示一切跡象，以確保中國當地經濟繼續復甦。所以我 - 我對中國致力於下半年比上半年更好的事實感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Michael Sison from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Sison。

Nice quarter. It does feel like a recession is the consensus view appending these days, and your portfolio has changed. So just curious, overall, how do you think the current portfolio would -- in terms of volumes, would hold up in a recession?

漂亮的季度。確實感覺衰退是這些天來的共識，你的投資組合已經改變。所以只是好奇，總的來說，你認為當前的投資組合——就數量而言，會在衰退中保持多久？

And given you've got $2 billion worth of inflation, is it possible that you could potentially offset that entire volume decline because you get a lot of this inflation back and maybe PPG's earnings just look a little bit more resilient than maybe in the past?

考慮到你有 20 億美元的通貨膨脹，你是否有可能抵消整個銷量下降，因為你得到了很多這種通貨膨脹，也許 PPG 的收益看起來比過去更有彈性？

Well, Mike, I think we certainly have built a more resilient company, just start with that as a basic premise. Second, I do think that we're going to keep a lot more raw materials in our pocket. So if you do see a raw material decline, I think that's going to flow through the P&L a lot quicker than you think. And I think that's a little bit of what people are missing in this analysis.

好吧，邁克，我認為我們當然已經建立了一家更有彈性的公司，只是以此作為基本前提。其次，我確實認為我們會在口袋裡保留更多的原材料。因此，如果您確實看到原材料下降，我認為這將比您想像的更快地通過損益表。我認為這是人們在這個分析中遺漏的一點點。

And quite honestly, this recession, if there is one, which I still don't think there's going to be a significant one if there is one, we have a different portfolio right now. So think about traffic solutions. I mean, that business runs no matter what happens. And they are behind on that. Plus, you have demographics where they're going to have thicker lines, more -- the lines are going to be longer. So those things are going to be positives.

老實說，這次衰退，如果有的話，我仍然認為如果有的話，不會有重大影響，我們現在有不同的投資組合。所以想想交通解決方案。我的意思是，無論發生什麼，該業務都會運行。他們在這方面落後了。另外，你有人口統計數據，他們會有更粗的線條，更多——線條會更長。因此，這些事情將是積極的。

You also have the fact that we have a supply, significant deficit here in the U.S., of cars. That's going to be different. And we have a significant deficit of planes, and that's going to be different. And the new planes that are coming out are much more fuel-efficient than the old planes. So it's not a matter of whether they're going to keep the old planes in the air, they're not going to do that. They're going to replace these because of the fuel efficiency. And so if you believe that $100 oil is here for a long, a moderate period of time, the plane guys, those are economics they cannot afford to miss. So that's why they're going to be replacing these planes. So I think that's all good.

你還有一個事實，即我們在美國這裡有大量的汽車供應短缺。那會有所不同。我們的飛機嚴重短缺，情況會有所不同。而且即將面世的新飛機比舊飛機更省油。所以這不是他們是否要把舊飛機留在空中的問題，他們不會那樣做。由於燃油效率，他們將更換這些。因此，如果您認為 100 美元的石油會在很長一段時間內出現，那麼飛機專家們，這些都是他們不能錯過的經濟學。所以這就是他們要更換這些飛機的原因。所以我認為這一切都很好。

And what's interesting about this work from home stuff is that the dynamics are people are driving in the suburbs more and less on the highway, which leads to more lower-speed collisions. So totals are actually down right now. So totals were down 2%. And I anticipate totals continuing to decline, and that's good for our refinish business.

這項在家工作的有趣之處在於，人們在郊區的高速公路上越來越少地開車，這導致了更多的低速碰撞。所以現在總數實際上在下降。因此，總數下降了 2%。而且我預計總數會繼續下降，這對我們的修補業務有利。

And oh, by the way, if you get in an accident right now, you better be prepared to wait because there's about a 6-week -- the average backlog to get a car repaired is about 6 weeks right now. That's assuming they get the parts. So I'm feeling pretty good about that.

哦，順便說一句，如果你現在發生事故，你最好做好等待的準備，因為大約有 6 週的時間——現在修理汽車的平均積壓大約是 6 週。那是假設他們得到了零件。所以我對此感覺很好。

And Mike, this is Vince again. I just -- your comparison, and we'll just compare to the last recession. Obviously, there was a housing overhang globally in the last recession, there was an auto overhang in the last recession. We're not seeing those. Michael talked about aerospace, we expect that to be in a recovery mode. Auto in a recovery mode.

還有邁克，這又是文斯。我只是 - 你的比較，我們將與上次經濟衰退進行比較。顯然，在上一次經濟衰退中，全球存在房地產過剩，在上一次經濟衰退中存在汽車過剩。我們沒有看到那些。邁克爾談到了航空航天，我們預計它將處於恢復模式。自動處於恢復模式。

As it relates to PPG's portfolio and a different -- in a addition to traffic solutions versus the last recession, we have PPG Comex, which is a very steady business for us. We also have some other businesses in other parts of the world that are more steady. So again, I think Michael's comments at the outset, that we've built a better portfolio, more resilient portfolio, takes into account some of those things.

由於它與 PPG 的投資組合和不同的投資組合有關——除了交通解決方案與上次經濟衰退相比，我們還有 PPG Comex，這對我們來說是一項非常穩定的業務。我們在世界其他地區也有一些其他業務更加穩定。所以，我認為邁克爾一開始的評論，我們已經建立了一個更好的投資組合，更有彈性的投資組合，考慮到了其中的一些事情。

Yes. And Mike, it's Tim. Just to pile on here even one more business from a recession or a potential recession resiliency standpoint. The military part of our aerospace business, given what's happening in geopolitically, tremendous backlog there, too.

是的。邁克，是蒂姆。從衰退或潛在的衰退彈性的角度來看，這裡甚至可以再增加一項業務。考慮到地緣政治上正在發生的事情，我們航空航天業務的軍事部分也存在大量積壓。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Your volume expectation in performance coatings for the third quarter is flat to down a low single-digit percentage. Isn't that too low? And that I understand that European deco is weak, but isn't aerospace better, and auto refinish? And last year, they were very -- there are shortages in raw materials in the North American architectural market. Shouldn't volumes be up in the third quarter?

您對第三季度高性能塗料的銷量預期持平至低個位數百分比。是不是太低了？而且我知道歐洲的裝飾很弱，但是航空不是更好嗎，汽車修補漆？去年，他們非常 - 北美建築市場的原材料短缺。第三季度的銷量不應該增加嗎？

And then for Vince, inventories and receivables are going up at maybe about a 10% rate and payables are maybe going up at half that. Is that a trend that's going to continue? And why the difference?

然後對於文斯來說，庫存和應收賬款可能會以大約 10% 的速度增長，而應付賬款可能會增長一半。這種趨勢會持續下去嗎？為什麼有區別？

Yes, Jeff, I'll take the second question first. Again, on inventory, we came into the quarter -- we came into the year with a focus on having excess inventory where possible in order to have supply to our customers. So we're certainly looking at that as we go to the back half of the year. We'll ratably work that down as supply conditions have improved and continue to improve.

是的，傑夫，我先回答第二個問題。同樣，在庫存方面，我們進入了這個季度——我們進入這一年的重點是盡可能地增加庫存，以便為我們的客戶提供供應。因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，我們肯定會考慮這一點。隨著供應狀況的改善並繼續改善，我們將合理地降低這一點。

Receivables are up simply because our pricing is up and we have a bigger book of business. I think receivables are up $600 million or $700 million on a year-over-year basis. We'll collect those, and we're not seeing any significant deterioration on collections. So the high receivable balance, Jeff, will turn to cash in the third and fourth quarter.

應收賬款增加僅僅是因為我們的價格上漲並且我們的業務量更大。我認為應收賬款同比增加了 6 億美元或 7 億美元。我們會收集這些，並且我們沒有看到收集的任何顯著惡化。因此，高應收賬款餘額傑夫將在第三和第四季度轉向現金。

Payables. Again, we're timely with our suppliers, so nothing to speak of there.

應付賬款。同樣，我們及時與供應商聯繫，所以沒什麼可說的。

As it relates to the performance coatings volumes, there's a variety of different moving pieces. Aerospace up, as you mentioned. We do see DIY down both in Europe, U.S., also in other mature regions like Australia, we do have a slowing. We do have some challenges in our protective business when you go into Q3, really residual hangover from Q2 in China.

由於它與高性能塗料體積有關，因此有多種不同的運動部件。正如你提到的，航空航天。我們確實看到歐洲、美國以及澳大利亞等其他成熟地區的 DIY 業務下滑，我們確實放緩了。當您進入第三季度時，我們的保護業務確實面臨一些挑戰，這確實是第二季度在中國的遺留問題。

So with the reporting segment, you always have puts and takes. It's our best guess at this time. Hopefully, we're being conservative. But that's our best guess at this time.

因此，對於報告部分，您總是有看跌期權。這是我們目前最好的猜測。希望我們是保守的。但這是我們目前最好的猜測。

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer from Golden Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Golden Sachs 的 Duffy Fischer。

Question just around raw materials. If you could talk about the different buckets, solvents, resins, pigments and maybe packaging. What's your view what's happening with price and availability going into the back half of the year? And then maybe kind of what do you think the 2-year outlook is for some of these raw materials that have been quite tight?

關於原材料的問題。如果你能談談不同的桶、溶劑、樹脂、顏料，也許還有包裝。您如何看待下半年的價格和可用性？然後，您認為其中一些非常緊張的原材料的 2 年前景可能是什麼？

Well, let's start with the negative first, is that emulsions continue to be a bit of a challenge for us. And there have been a few force majeures. You probably saw the one Allnex recently. So it's not -- we're not out of the woods on that yet.

好吧，讓我們先從負面開始，乳液對我們來說仍然是一個挑戰。並且發生了一些不可抗力。您可能最近看到了 Allnex。所以不是——我們還沒有走出困境。

But we've seen TiO2 in China get weaker. We're seeing TiO2 from China being shipped into Europe. I certainly see epoxies in Asia getting weaker as well. I think that there's a number of our solvents that are now flattening out. Availability is much improved, but the pricing is flattening out. And I think the same thing with packaging. Packaging is flattening out.

但我們已經看到中國的二氧化鈦變弱了。我們看到來自中國的二氧化鈦被運往歐洲。我當然看到亞洲的環氧樹脂也越來越弱。我認為我們的許多溶劑現在正在趨於平緩。可用性大大提高，但價格趨於平緩。我認為包裝也是如此。包裝正在變平。

And so I think when I look at our overall -- we bucket our raw materials into about 12 different buckets. Last quarter, I had 11 out of 12 were red. Coming into this quarter, we have 4 or 5 of them that are yellow. That means the prices have moderated. And we actually have 1 green on the chart.

所以我認為，當我查看我們的整體時——我們將原材料裝入大約 12 個不同的桶中。上個季度，我有 12 個中有 11 個是紅色的。進入本季度，我們有 4 或 5 個是黃色的。這意味著價格已經放緩。我們實際上在圖表上有 1 個綠色。

So -- and when we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we see improvement in a number of those as well. So I think we're coming to the end of that raw material inflation, and that's good for us sequentially. We see low single digits in the third quarter, and I think you should expect sequential improvement in the fourth quarter.

所以——當我們展望第四季度時，我們也看到了其中一些方面的改善。所以我認為我們即將結束原材料通脹，這對我們有好處。我們看到第三季度的個位數較低，我認為您應該預計第四季度會出現連續改善。

Duffy, it's Tim. Just to add to what Michael said. While supply is significantly better than it was at the beginning of Q2 and certainly better than last year, we still have spot supply issues, I would call it, in refinish, in auto, in architectural. So we're not quite back to what you would call completely normal supply, pre-COVID kind of supply situations. Although sequentially, much better. And we expect that to sequentially continue to improve.

達菲，是蒂姆。只是為了補充邁克爾所說的。雖然供應明顯好於第二季度初，而且肯定好於去年，但我們仍然存在現貨供應問題，我會稱之為修補漆、汽車和建築方面的問題。因此，我們還沒有完全恢復到您所說的完全正常的供應，即 COVID 之前的供應情況。雖然順序，好多了。我們預計這將繼續改善。

And then Duffy, you asked about -- this is Vince. You asked about 2 years. That's beyond our forecasting horizon. We're typically 3- to 6-month windows, the best forecasting visibility we have. And we certainly can't go out 2 years. There is structural commodity supply being built in China, which is -- we expect to fully exploit. But that's the best we could give on a 2-year look.

然後是達菲，你問過——這是文斯。你問了大約2年。這超出了我們的預測範圍。我們通常是 3 到 6 個月的窗口，這是我們擁有的最佳預測可見性。我們當然不能出去2年。中國正在建設結構性商品供應，我們希望充分利用這一點。但這是我們可以給出的最好的 2 年外觀。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Just wondering if you can talk a little bit about the cost work you're doing in Europe and whether that's sort of structural or just sort of temporal. And along those same lines, given sort of the normalization in DIY, has there been an opportunity to reduce maybe promotional spending? I mean, maybe that was already being reduced during the hot demand period -- or ad spending. Is there anything changing on how you're allocating investment spending into that business?

只是想知道您是否可以談談您在歐洲所做的成本工作，以及這是結構性的還是時間性的。沿著同樣的思路，考慮到 DIY 的正常化，是否有機會減少促銷支出？我的意思是，在需求旺盛的時期，或者廣告支出可能已經減少了。您在該業務中分配投資支出的方式有什麼變化嗎？

Well, certainly, on the ad spending, as you see, they've declined. You're also getting near the end of the paint season by the time the quarter is going to be over. So that is on a decline. That's typical, though. So that's not really that much of a difference.

嗯，當然，在廣告支出方面，正如你所見，他們已經下降了。到本季度結束時，您也將接近油漆季節的尾聲。所以這是下降的。不過，這很典型。所以這並沒有太大的區別。

We do bucket our cost reductions in Europe into 2 things. One is structural and one is short term. The structural ones, you see that flowing through. We have plants that we have targeted to be closed. We have headcount that we're taking out. We have productivity initiatives through dispense cells and other high-volume packaging equipment that is driving productivity in the plant. All those things are underway. And then of course, on a temporary basis. You are reducing headcount as you're seeing that lower demand in the architectural segment.

我們確實將我們在歐洲的成本降低分為兩件事。一種是結構性的，一種是短期的。結構性的，你會看到它貫穿始終。我們有計劃關閉的工廠。我們正在裁員。我們通過分配單元和其他大容量包裝設備來提高工廠的生產力，從而提高生產力。所有這些事情都在進行中。然後當然是暫時的。當您看到建築領域的需求下降時，您正在減少員工人數。

So I'm feeling comfortable that we're going to continue to grow margins. If you look at our history in Europe, we have consistently grown our earnings in Europe year-over-year regularly. So I don't think this should be any different this year.

因此，我對我們將繼續提高利潤率感到滿意。如果你看看我們在歐洲的歷史，我們在歐洲的收入一直在不斷地逐年增長。所以我認為今年應該不會有什麼不同。

Vince, it's Tim here, Tim Knavish. We also have continuation of the Tikkurila synergies which of course are structural. We've captured a lot of those. But footprint-wise and back-office wise, we continue to make progress there.

文斯，我是蒂姆，蒂姆·克納維什。我們還延續了 Tikkurila 協同效應，這當然是結構性的。我們已經捕獲了很多。但在足跡和後台方面，我們繼續在那裡取得進展。

And just to put some perspective, margin improvement progression has continued in our AC Europe business despite the volume challenges, and we expect that to continue as well.

只是從一些角度來看，儘管面臨數量挑戰，我們的 AC 歐洲業務的利潤率仍在繼續提高，我們預計這種情況也會繼續下去。

Our next question comes from Mike Leithead from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Mike Leithead。

Great. Just on auto OE. I was hoping you could give some context about your volume levels today versus maybe, say, pre-pandemic. I'm just trying to figure out, if we get back to, say, a 2019 type build rate, what sort of upside does that offer? And maybe just remind us what type of incremental margin levels we should think about broadly for your industrial coatings business today after all the restructuring and whatnot.

偉大的。就在汽車OE上。我希望你能提供一些關於你今天的成交量水平的背景信息，而不是大流行前的情況。我只是想弄清楚，如果我們回到 2019 年的構建速度，那會帶來什麼樣的好處？也許只是提醒我們，在所有重組等之後，我們應該為您的工業塗料業務廣泛考慮哪種類型的增量利潤率水平。

Well, Mike, if I remember right, last year, there was about 78 million cars built. We're on a path to have a little bit over 80 million cars built. At the peak, it was 95 million cars. And there is a substantial backlog of vehicles that need to be built.

好吧，邁克，如果我沒記錯的話，去年大約生產了 7800 萬輛汽車。我們正在努力製造超過 8000 萬輛汽車。在高峰期，它是 9500 萬輛汽車。還有大量積壓的車輛需要建造。

And plus, I think what you're going to be seeing, you're already starting to see, some of these electric vehicles being made in China that are being exported to Europe. So you're going to start to see a better mix in our automotive business because of mobility. And right now, our margins in automotive are improving on a sequential basis.

另外，我認為您將看到的，您已經開始看到，其中一些在中國製造的電動汽車正在出口到歐洲。因此，由於移動性，您將開始看到我們汽車業務的更好組合。目前，我們在汽車領域的利潤率正在連續提高。

So what I would do is I'd look back at the historical margins in our industrial segment. And you know automotive is the biggest business in that, so they're going to be somewhat close to that margin. And that's the way I would do the math.

所以我要做的是回顧我們工業領域的歷史利潤率。而且您知道汽車是其中最大的業務，因此它們將在某種程度上接近該利潤。這就是我做數學的方式。

Yes. And Mike, if I could just elaborate a little bit on what we call the latent demand in auto here. We talked about this last quarter, but U.S. dealer inventory somewhere below -- just below 30 days. Typically, that's 60-plus, 70-plus. So the inventories need rebuilt.

是的。還有邁克，如果我能詳細說明一下我們所說的汽車潛在需求。我們在上個季度談到了這一點，但美國經銷商庫存低於某個地方——略低於 30 天。通常，這是 60 多，70 多。所以庫存需要重建。

There's a big fleet rebuild process that has to take place in the U.S. that includes just company-owned cars as well as other fleet vehicles. That's a significant impact. There is a European fleet that also, at some point, will be rebuilt. There's a significant amount of employees that have company cars in Europe, so that's another adder.

美國必須進行大規模的車隊重建過程，其中僅包括公司擁有的汽車以及其他車隊車輛。這是一個重大影響。有一支歐洲艦隊，在某個時候，也將被重建。在歐洲有大量員工擁有公司汽車，所以這是另一個加法器。

And that -- those latent things, in addition to the demand, where most cars are on back order. So again, we have comfort, the next 12-plus, 15-plus months, for a solid recovery back toward that, call it, high 80s, low 90s level. So we're still down about almost 20% in the industry versus pre-pandemic.

還有那些潛在的東西，除了需求之外，大多數汽車都處於延期交貨狀態。因此，我們再次感到欣慰，在接下來的 12 多個月、15 多個月內，我們將穩步恢復到那個水平，稱之為 80 年代高點，90 年代低點水平。因此，與大流行前相比，我們在該行業中仍然下降了近 20%。

Our next question comes from Mike Harrison from Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

I was wondering if we could go back to some of the raw material availability issues and specifically dig in on what's going on in the refinish business. It sounds like some of the raw material and logistics bottlenecks that you've been seeing are going to continue into Q3. So maybe just a little more detail on what you're seeing there. What needs to happen to get some resolution to those supply issues? And I guess, is your expectation that, that improvement is going to happen some time this year? Or is that an early '23 thing? What's the timing look like?

我想知道我們是否可以回到一些原材料可用性問題，並專門研究修補漆業務的情況。聽起來您所看到的一些原材料和物流瓶頸將持續到第三季度。所以也許只是關於你在那裡看到的更多細節。需要做什麼才能解決這些供應問題？我猜，您是否期望這種改善會在今年的某個時候發生？還是那是 23 年早期的事情？時間安排是怎樣的？

Mike, it's Tim. We -- despite having a record quarter in refinish, and we expect that kind of performance to continue, we do have persistent, I would call them, one-off shortages from a raw material standpoint that have led to some of the backlogs. In addition to the backlog of work that our customers have, we've got a backlog just to catch up and refill the channel because of these one-offs. That won't get fixed overnight.

邁克，是蒂姆。我們 - 儘管在修補漆方面有創紀錄的季度，並且我們預計這種表現會繼續下去，但我們確實存在持續的，我會稱之為，從原材料的角度來看，一次性短缺導致一些積壓。除了我們的客戶積壓的工作外，由於這些一次性工作，我們還有積壓的工作只是為了趕上並補充渠道。這不會在一夜之間得到解決。

It continues also to sequentially improve. And I expect us to continue to work our way through that through the rest of this year, which frankly, is some pent-up upside for us because, in addition to the high body shop activity levels that we have notably here in the U.S., we've got this kind of inventory replenishment to catch up on throughout the rest of this year as well.

它也繼續依次改善。我希望我們在今年剩下的時間裡繼續努力，坦率地說，這對我們來說是一些被壓抑的上行空間，因為除了我們在美國這裡的車身修理廠活動水平很高之外，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們也會進行這種庫存補充。

Thank you. That is the end of the Q&A session, so I'll now hand you back over to John Bruno for closing remarks.

謝謝你。問答環節到此結束，所以我現在將您交回給 John Bruno 進行結束致辭。

Thank you, Lauren, and everyone, for listening, for your interest in PPG. I look forward to talking and seeing many of you in the coming weeks. This concludes our Second Quarter Earnings Call. Have a good day.

感謝 Lauren 和大家的聆聽，感謝您對 PPG 的興趣。我期待在接下來的幾週內與你們中的許多人交談和見面。我們的第二季度財報電話會議到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。