Post Holdings Inc (POST) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Post Holdings Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Post Holdings 2025 年第二季財報電話會議和網路直播。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel O'Rourke, Investor Relations for Post.

現在我將把電話交給郵政投資者關係負責人丹尼爾·奧羅克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for the Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Call. I'm joined this morning by Rob Vitale, our President and CEO; Jeff Zadoks, our COO; and Matt Mainer, our CFO and Treasurer. Rob, Jeff and Matt will make prepared remarks, and afterwards, we'll answer your questions. The press release that supports these remarks is posted on both the investors and the SEC filings portions of our website and is also available on the SEC's website.

早安，感謝各位參加今天舉行的2025財年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長羅伯·維塔萊；我們的營運長傑夫·扎多克斯；以及我們的財務長兼財務主管馬特·梅納。羅布、傑夫和馬特將發表事先準備好的講話，之後我們將回答你們的問題。支持這些言論的新聞稿已發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分和美國證券交易委員會備案部分，也可在美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。

As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website at postholdings.com. Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements.

再次提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音，錄音回放可在我們的網站postholdings.com上收聽。在會議繼續之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，投資者應仔細考慮，因為實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本次電話會議之日的信息，管理層不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

This call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website.

本次電話會議將討論某些非GAAP指標。有關這些非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們昨天發布的新聞稿，該新聞稿已發佈在我們的網站上。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.

接下來，我將把電話交給羅布。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning all. I'm going to make some thematic comments, and Jeff and Matt will take you through the quarter. First, we performed well in a difficult environment. I expect that to continue. Second, trade policy and regulations continue to grab headlines. We will manage those as they develop. Third, consumer sentiment is weak. We expect we will need to focus on demand drivers and flawless supply chain execution. First and last, uncertainty in the capital markets complicates M&A valuations.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。各位早安。我將做一些主題性評論，傑夫和馬特將帶你了解本季的情況。首先，我們在困難的環境下表現出色。我預計這種情況還會持續下去。其次，貿易政策和法規繼續佔據新聞頭條。我們會根據事態發展進行管理。第三，消費者信心疲軟。我們預計需要專注於需求驅動因素和完美無瑕的供應鏈執行。首先，資本市場的不確定性使併購估值變得複雜。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jeff and Matt, who will take you through the quarter. Jeff?

接下來，我將把電話交給傑夫和馬特，他們將為大家介紹本季的情況。傑夫？

Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Given the volatile macro backdrop and challenges associated with Avian influenza, we are especially pleased with our Q2 results. Our puts team did a fantastic job navigating incredibly difficult egg markets as they prioritize customer supply while at the same time, mitigating some of the expected net cost impact. Meanwhile, our retail businesses offset volume pressures with cost control and supply chain execution.

謝謝羅布，大家早安。鑑於宏觀經濟環境動盪以及禽流感帶來的挑戰，我們對第二季的業績感到格外滿意。我們的賣出策略團隊在應對極其艱難的雞蛋市場方面做得非常出色，他們優先考慮客戶供應，同時減輕一些預期的淨成本影響。同時，我們的零售業務透過成本控制和供應鏈執行來抵銷銷售壓力。

As a reminder, last quarter, we guided that Q2 would be down $30 million to $50 million compared to Q1 as a result of avian influenza cost ahead of pricing impacts and food service. Actual Q2 Foodservice adjusted EBITDA was approximately $20 million lower than Q1 as $30 million of costs ahead of pricing impact was partially offset by manufacturing and supply chain performance improvements.

提醒一下，上個季度我們預測，由於禽流感成本（不包括價格影響和餐飲服務成本）的影響，第二季將比第一季減少 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。第二季餐飲服務調整後 EBITDA 實際值比第一季低約 2,000 萬美元，原因是定價影響前增加的 3,000 萬美元成本被製造和供應鏈績效的改善部分抵銷。

Setting aside the temporary impact of (inaudible) Influenza, underlying business trends versus last year remain encouraging despite a backdrop of poor foodservice foot traffic. Our selling proposition continues to prove out as our mix of higher value-added egg products grew once again.

撇開流感帶來的暫時影響不談，儘管餐飲服務客流量不佳，但與去年相比，潛在的業務趨勢仍然令人鼓舞。我們的銷售策略不斷得到驗證，高附加價值蛋製品組合的再次成長證明了這一點。

Looking to the balance of the fiscal year, additional avian influenza pricing became effective starting in April, and our flock repopulation is on track. Assuming no additional outbreaks in our network, we expect to balance our egg sourcing and demand by Q4 and we continue to expect we will recover the unfavorable cost ahead of pricing impact we saw in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal '25.

展望本財年剩餘時間，從 4 月起，禽流感附加定價生效，我們的禽群恢復工作正按計畫進行。假設我們的網路中沒有其他疫情爆發，我們預計到第四季度將實現雞蛋供應和需求的平衡，並且我們繼續預計在 2025 財年剩餘時間內，我們將在價格影響之前收回第二季度出現的不利成本。

Moving on to Post Consumer Brands. We had a solid quarter while navigating volume declines in both grocery and pet. In grocery, our cost structure continued to benefit from last September's plant closure. However, the cereal category declines accelerated to down 3.7% with our branded portfolio slightly behind at down 4.5%.

接下來是消費後品牌。儘管食品雜貨和寵物用品的銷量均出現下滑，但我們本季業績依然穩健。在食品雜貨方面，我們的成本結構繼續受益於去年 9 月的工廠關閉。然而，穀物類產品的下滑速度加快，下降了 3.7%，而我們的品牌產品組合下滑幅度略大，為 4.5%。

Category declines continue to pressure our manufacturing utilization and cost structure which drove our recent decision to close two more plants by the end of the calendar year. Our (inaudible) paint consumption was down 4.5% versus a flat category as we continue to face declines in Nutrish demand and distribution and gravy train price elasticities. We were able to offset these lower pet volumes with improved supply chain and SG&A cost performance.

品類下滑持續對我們的生產利用率和成本結構帶來壓力，這促使我們最近決定在年底前再關閉兩家工廠。由於我們持續面臨 Nutrish 需求和分銷下降以及利潤列車價格彈性下降，我們的（聽不清楚）油漆消耗量下降了 4.5%，而其他類別則持平。我們透過改善供應鏈和銷售、管理及行政成本績效，彌補了寵物銷售下降的損失。

Finally, a relaunch of the Nutrish brand certainly hitting the shelves. And while it is very early, the first reactions are encouraging. Turning to our (inaudible) retail. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was down versus prior year primarily because of timing, which fell during Q2 a year ago. In addition, similar to our foodservice business, we experienced costs ahead of pricing in eggs with pricing taking effect in April, which will benefit Q3. Our focus continues to be on driving volumes in our business, driving lower costs and integrating our newly acquired PPI business. At Weetabix performance improved after our ERP conversion last quarter. While we see -- while we still limited promotional activities in Q2, we saw yellow box consumption relatively in line with the category, which was down 1.5%.

最終，Nutrish品牌的重新上市無疑將上架銷售。雖然現在下結論還為時過早，但初步反應令人鼓舞。轉向我們的（聽不清楚）零售業務。第二季調整後 EBITDA 較上年同期下降，主要是因為時間因素，去年第二季出現下滑。此外，與我們的餐飲服務業務類似，我們在雞蛋定價之前就經歷了成本增加，定價將於 4 月生效，這將有利於第三季。我們將繼續專注於提升業務量、降低成本以及整合新收購的PPI業務。上個季度我們完成ERP系統轉換後，Weetabix的表現有所提升。儘管我們在第二季度仍然限制了促銷活動，但我們看到黃盒消費量與該類別基本持平，下降了 1.5%。

We expect to improve margins in the back half of the year through sequential volume growth as we ramp up marketing with targeted activations and further execute our cost-out initiatives. Before turning the call over to Matt, a couple of comments on M&A and capital allocation. The recent tariff actions and volatility in capital markets have slowed what was an active M&A pipeline for us. The uncertainty in this environment points to smaller tactical transactions, such as our recent acquisition of PPI or transactions where we have clear line of sight to (inaudible). We have continued to lean into share repurchases and have now bought approximately 6% of the company since the end of the fiscal year from both the leverage and liquidity position we remain very well positioned for opportunistic capital allocation.

我們預計，隨著下半年銷售量環比增長，以及我們加強行銷力度進行有針對性的推廣活動並進一步執行成本削減計劃，利潤率將有所提高。在將電話交給 Matt 之前，我想就併購和資本配置發表幾點看法。最近的關稅措施和資本市場的波動減緩了我們原本活躍的併購計畫。在這種不確定環境下，我們傾向於進行規模較小的戰術性交易，例如我們最近收購PPI的交易，或是我們能夠清楚預見的交易。（聽不清楚）我們繼續加大股票回購力度，自本財年結束以來已回購了公司約 6% 的股份。憑藉目前的槓桿和流動性，我們仍然處於非常有利的位置，可以進行機會性的資本配置。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Second quarter consolidated net sales were $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $347 million, sales decreased 2% as lower overall volumes in our retail businesses were partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven price in food service and volume growth in shakes. .

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。第二季合併淨銷售額為 20 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.47 億美元，銷售額下降 2%，原因是零售業務整體銷售下降，但部分被禽流感導致的餐飲服務價格上漲和奶昔銷售成長所抵銷。。

Turning to our segments. Post Consumer and net sales decreased 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet. Total volumes decreased 6%, primarily due to category dynamics. Pet volumes decreased 5% as we continue to lap reductions in lower-margin business and great pricing elasticities along with lower consumption, particularly in Nutrish. As expected, these pressures were partially offset by customer inventory recovery deloading last quarter due to our TSA cutover. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 2% versus prior year as we benefited from improved cost reform for both grocery and pet. Foodservice net sales increased 10% and volumes increased 3%. Revenue (inaudible) elevated AV influenza driven pricing and higher shake sales. Excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% (inaudible) dynamics impacting eggs and lower customer foot traffic impacting both egg and potatoes.

接下來進入我們的節目環節。消費後銷售額和淨銷售額下降了 7%，主要原因是穀物和寵物用品的銷售下降。總銷量下降 6%，主要原因是品類動態變化。由於低利潤業務持續下滑、價格彈性較大以及消費量下降（尤其是 Nutrish 產品），寵物產品銷售量下降了 5%。正如預期的那樣，由於我們在上季度進行了 TSA 切換，客戶庫存恢復減少，部分抵消了這些壓力。經調整後的分部 EBITDA 比上年增長 2%，這得益於食品雜貨和寵物用品成本改革的改善。餐飲服務淨銷售額成長10%，銷量成長3%。收入（聽不清楚）上升 AV 流感推動定價和奶昔銷售增加。除了奶昔外，銷量下降了 1%（聽不清楚），這影響了雞蛋的銷量，而客流量的減少又影響了雞蛋和馬鈴薯的銷售。

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 6%, driven by avian influenza cost ahead of pricing, partially offset by improved manufacturing and supply chain performance. Rigated retail net sales decreased 7% and volumes decreased 5%. Volumes across all products were affected by the timing of Easter, which was in Q2 last year. Egg volumes were impacted further by limited availability due to (inaudible) influenza. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 14% driven primarily by lower volumes and costs ahead of price on eggs and sales. Weetabix net sales decreased 5% versus the prior year. Foreign currency represented a headwind of 70 basis points. Volumes decreased 7%, driven by lower promotions due to our Q1 ERP conversion, noncore product discontinuations and elasticities related to pricing decisions which we will lap later in the fiscal year.

經調整的 EBITDA 下降了 6%，主要原因是禽流感成本提前計入定價，但部分被生產和供應鏈績效的改善所抵消。零售通路淨銷售額下降 7%，銷量下降 5%。去年復活節在第二季度，所有產品的銷售量都受到了復活節時間的影響。受流感（聽不清楚）影響，雞蛋供應有限，進一步影響了雞蛋產量。調整後的分部 EBITDA 下降 14%，主要原因是雞蛋價格和銷售額下降導致銷售和成本降低。維他麥淨銷售額較前一年下降5%。外匯匯率帶來了70個基點的不利影響。銷售量下降了 7%，原因是由於第一季 ERP 系統轉換導致促銷活動減少、非核心產品停產以及與定價決策相關的彈性效應，我們將在本財年稍後克服這些影響。

Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 9% versus prior year, led by increased net pricing from our prior year profit-enhancing decisions partially offset by increased input costs and lower volumes from promotional blackouts.

分部調整後 EBITDA 較上年成長 9%，主要得益於上年利潤提升決策帶來的淨價格上漲，但部分被投入成本增加和促銷活動限制導致的銷售下降所抵銷。

Turning to cash flow. We generated $160 million from operations and approximately $70 million in free cash flow, net of CapEx spend. This was a decrease sequentially from last quarter, which is primarily due to working capital timing. Year-to-date, free cash flow was $240 million. From a capital allocation standpoint, we favored share repurchases as we repurchased 1.7 million shares at an average price of approximately $110 per share. In addition, we spent $124 million to acquire PPI. The net effect of our capital allocation versus free cash flow this quarter increased our net leverage slightly to 4.5x.

接下來談談現金流。我們從營運中獲得了 1.6 億美元的收入，扣除資本支出後，自由現金流約為 7,000 萬美元。與上一季相比有所下降，這主要是由於營運資金到位時間所致。今年迄今為止，自由現金流為 2.4 億美元。從資本配置的角度來看，我們傾向於股票回購，我們以每股約 110 美元的平均價格回購了 170 萬股股票。此外，我們還花了 1.24 億美元收購了 PPI。本季資本配置與自由現金流的淨效應使我們的淨槓桿率略微上升至 4.5 倍。

With our earnings release last night, we increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion. While we plan to recover Q2 foodservice costs ahead of pricing in the second half, we expect this to be largely offset by lower performance in PCB from continued elevated cereal category volume declines and anticipate disruption in Nutrish as we fully ramp its relaunch.

昨晚我們發布了盈利報告，並將調整後的 EBITDA 預期範圍上調至 14.3 億美元至 14.7 億美元。雖然我們計劃在下半年定價之前收回第二季度的餐飲服務成本，但我們預計這將很大程度上被 PCB 業績的下降所抵消，因為穀物類銷量持續大幅下滑，而且隨著 Nutrish 的全面重新推出，預計 Nutrish 的運營將會受到影響。

Thank you for joining us today, and I will now turn the call back over to the operator.

感謝您今天收聽我們的節目，現在我將把電話轉回給接線生。

The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions)

現在開始接受提問。（操作說明）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks so much. Good morning. I know Post has already raised several times its view on the structural run rate it expects from the Foodservice unit and looks at the underlying segment EBITDA, again, sort of excluding the cost ahead of pricing piece was again above that level. Is the long-term run rate here now even higher than you thought previously? Or are there other reasons why maybe it came in so much better than we and some others had modeled this quarter?

非常感謝。早安.我知道 Post 已經多次提高了對餐飲服務部門預期結構性運作率的預期，並且再次審視了該部門的基礎 EBITDA，在排除定價前的成本部分後，其再次高於該水平。現在這裡的長期運行率是否比你之前預想的還要高？或者有其他原因導致本季業績遠超過我們和其他一些人的預期嗎？

Andrew, I think it's hard to completely parse out avian influenza, but I think your comment that I indicated, 126 relative to the 105 we've talked about in the past. I think in reality, it's somewhere between those 2 numbers. We need a couple of quarters of normalcy, get the avian influenza behind us and back in balance in terms of our supply and demand and then we can make a better call on what that run rate is, but clearly higher than $105 million.

安德魯，我認為很難完全分析禽流感，但我認為你提到的評論，即 126 相對於我們過去討論過的 105 而言，確實很有道理。我認為實際上，它介於這兩個數字之間。我們需要幾個季度的正常情況，擺脫禽流感的影響，恢復供需平衡，然後我們才能更好地判斷目前的營運速度，但顯然會高於 1.05 億美元。

Okay, thanks for that. And then in the quarter, it looks like you were able to maintain pretty solid volume declines you saw in ready-to-eat and pet. I guess, would your expectation be that the recent announcements you made around the incremental asset optimization moves in cereal, should allow you to maintain strong profitability in this segment going forward, even if sort of serial category volume trends remain as challenged as what we saw this past quarter. Thanks so much.

好的，謝謝。然後，在本季度，你們似乎能夠保持即食食品和寵物食品銷售相當穩定的下降趨勢。我想，您是否預期，您最近宣布的有關穀物業務資產優化舉措，能夠讓您在該領域保持強勁的盈利能力，即使某些品類銷售趨勢仍然像上個季度一樣面臨挑戰？非常感謝。

So Andrew, I -- clearly, that's the objective is to do our best to manage our cost to maintain the profitability -- if we're seeing 4% or 5% year-on-year declines, that's going to be challenging. Our expectation would be in the medium term, at least that, that would start to temper and that we would get back to 1% to 2% down, probably not in the sack of this year, but longer term. So if we can get the category to more of that historic decline we think that those actions would enable us to maintain our margins along with the normal cost out activities that we would do on a regular basis.

所以安德魯，很明顯，我們的目標是盡最大努力控製成本以維持盈利能力——如果我們看到同比下降 4% 或 5%，那將是一個挑戰。我們預計，至少在中期內，這種情況會開始緩和，降幅會回落到 1% 到 2% 之間，可能不會在今年年底實現，但從長遠來看是可以的。因此，如果我們能夠使該類別繼續保持歷史性的下降趨勢，我們認為這些措施將使我們能夠在定期進行的正常成本削減活動的同時，維持我們的利潤率。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

David Palmer，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks. So just building on that line of questioning from Andrew. I'm thinking about PCB for fiscal '26 and how you're generally thinking about the [setup] there. Clearly, you have the pit closures and the tailwinds continuing there. And then the big 2 with (inaudible) and I can imagine that cereal might be a back-weighted situation or one that just slowly gets better in your thinking and maybe that's offset maybe some of the things that you've been talking about, the drags ending in the co-man agreements and the improvements in Nutrish and maybe you'd be thinking about that pet business perhaps offsetting cereal next year, but -- so rough strokes and how are you thinking about the your businesses within PCB and your ability to have at least a little bit of EBITDA growth from PCB next year? Thanks.

嗯，謝謝。所以，接下來就順著安德魯的提問繼續問下去。我正在考慮 2026 財年的 PCB，以及你們對那裡的 [設置] 的總體想法。顯然，維修區關閉，而且順風仍在持續。然後是兩大巨頭（聽不清），我能想像穀物業務可能處於次要地位，或者在你看來情況會慢慢好轉，也許這可以抵消你之前提到的一些問題，比如合作協議的拖累以及Nutrish的改進，也許你會考慮寵物業務明年能否抵消穀物業務的影響，但是——所以，粗略地概括一下，你如何看待你如何看待PCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCB，以及你明年能否從PCBDABPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCBPCB 的業務謝謝。

I think you laid it out exactly how we're thinking about it. This year has been a transition year for Pet. So we had to get off the TSA with Smucker. We had to do some of the heavy lifting on the brand for Nutrish. And obviously, we expect that those activities will bear some fruit into next year and would enable us to offset some of the headwinds that we're seeing in the cereal business. At the same time, we're going to do what we can on the cereal side to manage our costs, look to innovation and renovation to drive some volume even if the category continues to be challenged. So the combination of those things, we think, will enable us to mitigate the headwinds we're seeing to the best of our ability.

我覺得你把我們想的完全表達出來了。今年對 Pet 來說是過渡的一年。所以，我們只好和史馬克一起下了安檢。我們必須為Nutrish品牌做很多繁重的工作。顯然，我們預計這些活動將在明年取得一些成果，並使我們能夠抵消我們在穀物業務中看到的一些不利因素。同時，我們將在穀物產品方面盡我們所能控製成本，尋求創新和改進來推動銷售成長，即使該品類繼續面臨挑戰。因此，我們認為，這些因素結合起來，將使我們能夠盡最大努力減輕我們目前面臨的不利因素。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

Ken Goldman，摩根大通。

Hi, thank you. On PCB, the price/mix downturn this quarter, I'm just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on the key drivers there and how we might think about that line item ahead for the rest of the year?

您好，謝謝。關於PCB，本季價格/產品組合下滑，我想請您詳細說明一下主要驅動因素，以及我們今年餘下時間應該如何看待這一項？

Yes. I think as I talked about second half PCB down over first half, it's going to offset some of the pricing recovery we have in foodservice. And our expectation in the near term as the category remains where it's at for the balance of the fiscal year, which will put some pressure on cereal year-over-year for sure. Again, we've seen in terms of a mix standpoint this past quarter, we saw customers shift to larger pack sizes, which hurts mix a little bit. I think for right now, we're kind of holding firm to what we saw in Q2 for the balance of the year.

是的。我認為，正如我之前提到的，下半年PCB價格較上半年有所下降，這將抵消餐飲服務業價格回升的部分趨勢。短期內，我們預期該品類在本財年剩餘時間內將維持現狀，這肯定會對穀物產品年比銷售造成一定壓力。同樣，從產品組合的角度來看，上個季度我們看到顧客轉向了更大包裝規格的產品，這在一定程度上影響了產品組合。我認為就目前而言，我們今年剩餘時間的計劃將基本維持在第二季度所看到的水平。

All right, thank you for that. And then just as we get closer to the debt maturities for 8th Avenue, do you have any updated thoughts on the potential optionality of that business and maybe post potential role within that?

好的，謝謝。隨著 8th Avenue 的債務即將到期，您對該業務的潛在選擇以及您在其中可能扮演的角色是否有任何新的想法？

Well, we have a lot of confidence on the -- in the business operations itself. Obviously, we have to resolve the near-term maturities, and we will have a resolution one way or the other fairly soon.

我們對業務運作本身非常有信心。顯然，我們必須解決近期到期的問題，而且我們很快就會有解決方案。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

Good Morning.

早安.

Just was looking to get a little better sense of how to think about some of the savings from the cereal plant closures you just announced. And we can get a little bit of an idea of the timing just that it's the end of the calendar year. But are there potential offsets? Or how -- any maybe magnitude you can give or just how to think about the impact from that?

我只是想更了解一下，您剛剛宣布的關閉穀物加工廠所帶來的節省該如何計算。我們可以大致了解時間，因為現在是日曆年的結束。但是否有潛在的抵銷因素？或者，您能給出具體的數值範圍，或者說，您能如何看待這件事的影響？

Yes. I think we called out about a $20 million annualized benefit from the plant closures. Does that happen? Those are on track for the end of the calendar year. So you would get 3 quarters of that next fiscal year. I think if the category slows down to a more normalized down 1% to 2%. That's going to be in line with what we're seeing on the volume decline impact versus the cost savings of the plant shutdown. I think the challenge is the category doesn't slow down, then we've got some more optimization to do and we have some more levers we can pull.

是的。我認為我們曾指出，工廠關閉每年可帶來 2000 萬美元的收益。這種情況會發生嗎？這些項目預計將於年底前完成。所以，下個財政年度你將獲得其中的四分之三。我認為如果該類別增速放緩至更正常的 1% 到 2% 就好了。這將與我們看到的產量下降影響與工廠停產節省成本之間的關係一致。我認為挑戰在於，如果這個品類的成長速度沒有放緩，我們就需要進行更多的最佳化，而且還有更多可以利用的手段。

And I guess maybe specifically, I was trying to get at how much that's net or gross relative to things like operating deleverage or just the lost volume piece. Is that just the gross piece from the facility savings? Or does it kind of bundle it all together?

我想具體來說，我是想弄清楚相對於經營槓桿率下降或銷售損失等因素，這部分淨額或毛額分別是多少。那隻是設施節省成本的毛利部分嗎？還是它其實把所有內容都打包在一起了？

That would be the gross savings. So to the extent that there's incremental deleveraging beyond that, that would be an offset.

那將是總節省額。因此，如果在此基礎上還有進一步的去槓桿化，將會起到抵消作用。

Yes. And to be fair, we are in the early stages of our planning for FY26. So we don't want to run our plan and expose it until we're ready.

是的。公平地說，我們目前還處於 2026 財政年度計畫的早期階段。所以，在我們準備好之前，我們不想貿然實施並公開我們的計劃。

No. Fair enough. And just on the pet piece of the business, if you have a consumer that's getting more cautious, I know you have a few brands positioned differently, but -- how much can you characterize the benefit from trade down? Would that generally be a net positive? How do you think about just the impact from those share moves if you get a more stretched or cautious consumer overall?

不。很公平。就寵物業務而言，如果消費者變得越來越謹慎，我知道你們有一些品牌的定位有所不同，但是——你能描述一下降級消費帶來的好處有多大嗎？整體而言，這會是利大於弊嗎？如果消費者整體上更謹慎或承受壓力，您認為這些股價波動會產生怎樣的影響？

Yes, there's a meaningful shift down that would tend to favor us because we -- a large number of our brands tend to be on, we do have some brands that play in the more premium side as well. but we tend to be up and down the value chain with a skew towards the lower -- or excuse me, lower price point products, particularly in dog, dry dog food.

是的，市場確實出現了明顯的向下傾斜趨勢，這對我們有利，因為我們——我們的大部分品牌都面向高端市場，當然我們也有一些品牌走的是高端路線。但我們的產品線涵蓋了價值鏈的上下兩端，更偏向價格較低的產品，尤其是在狗糧領域，特別是乾狗糧。

And wouldn't it be fair to characterize it similar to cereal, where obviously you could lose some share on the branded side but more than make up for it with what you gain on the low end?

如果將其比作穀物食品，豈不是更公平嗎？顯然，你可能會在品牌市佔率上損失一些份額，但可以透過在低端市場獲得的份額來彌補損失。

Well, that depends on a lot of variables. I mean, clearly, in cereal, we have a much higher percentage of the low end of the value chain, given our position in private label as well as bag cereal. Our position in pet on the low end is not nearly the same market share that we have in cereal.

嗯，這取決於很多因素。我的意思是，很明顯，在穀物食品領域，鑑於我們在自有品牌和袋裝穀物方面的地位，我們在價值鏈的低端所佔的比例要高得多。我們在寵物食品領域的低端市場份額遠不及我們在穀物食品領域的市場份額。

Fair enough. That's great. Thanks.

很公平。那太棒了。謝謝。

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

John Baumgartner，瑞穗證券。

Good morning. Thanks for the question.

早安.謝謝你的提問。

I wanted to come back to Refrigerated Retail and the Bob Evans, the side dishes. I think expansion opportunities have been one of the aspirations there over the years, and we've seen some innovation here and there and some emphasis and the emphasis on different segments. And I think in general, we've seen some encouraging volume signs at retail in the last couple of quarters. Wondering if you could speak at this point to what you're seeing in the category expectations for distribution expansion over the next 12 months in terms of what your supply chain allows returns on recent efforts and innovation? Just kind of broader thoughts on expectations for retail going forward. Thank you.

我想回到冷藏零售和鮑勃·埃文斯，以及配菜。我認為，多年來，拓展業務機會一直是他們的目標之一，我們也看到了一些創新，以及對不同領域的重視。我認為總體而言，過去幾季我們在零售業的銷售方面看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。想請您談談，您認為未來 12 個月內，在供應鏈能夠為近期的努力和創新帶來哪些回報的情況下，該品類在分銷擴張方面有哪些預期？只是想就零售業未來的發展前景談談我的看法。謝謝。

Yes. So clearly, the PPI acquisition gives us capacity due to a number of things that maybe we couldn't have done before. We've also improved our capacity through internal improvements in our own plants that we've owned even prior to the PPI acquisition. So we've got -- you've been with us a long time. So you remember the years when we had to stop preparing certain products because we couldn't meet customer demand. Those days are behind us. So now we can play more offense than we have in the past. What we're seeing in the category is there's a trade down that's occurring with private label, which is a phenomenon that has not been an issue in that category years ago.

是的。顯然，PPI 的收購為我們帶來了能力，這要歸功於我們以前可能無法做到的一些事情。我們也透過對自有工廠的內部改進提高了產能，這些工廠甚至是在收購 PPI 之前就已經擁有。所以我們有——你已經和我們在一起很久了。所以你還記得那些年，因為無法滿足顧客需求，我們不得不停止生產某些產品嗎？那些日子已經過去了。所以現在我們可以比以往打得更有進攻性了。我們看到，在這個品類中，自有品牌產品正在出現降級趨勢，而這種現像在幾年前的該品類中還不是問題。

What we saw years ago was that private label really didn't have the quality and it would come in and out, but it never really stuck this time around. We're seeing that private label has better quality and it's taking some demand away from products like ours. So with the new capacity that we have available, it enables us to think about how we look at other categories. Does it make sense to play in private label? Does it make sense to play up and down the value chain while continuing to maintain our significant market share in the Bob Evans brand. In terms of innovation or renovation in that brand, we put a lot of that on hold given the issues that we had through COVID and even prior to COVID with our capacity utilization now with the availability of capacity we can begin to do more of that, which we would expect to do in the latter half of this year and into next year.

多年前我們看到的情況是，自有品牌的品質確實不好，而且時而流行時而衰落，但這次它並沒有真正流行起來。我們發現自有品牌產品品質較好，這搶走了我們這類產品的部分市場需求。因此，憑藉我們現有的新增產能，我們可以思考如何看待其他類別。以自有品牌發行的方式進行遊戲有意義嗎？在保持我們在 Bob Evans 品牌中顯著市場份額的同時，向上、向下拓展價值鏈是否有意義？就品牌的創新或改造而言，鑑於我們在新冠疫情期間以及甚至在新冠疫情之前遇到的產能利用率問題，我們暫停了許多相關工作。現在產能可用，我們可以開始做更多的事情，我們預計在今年下半年和明年會這樣做。

Okay. And then to come back to PCB and some of the cereal category headwinds, I mean, I think you had seen this about a decade ago where birth rates were down. You had some shift to [substitute products]. I think back then, it was frozen breakfast and restaurants. Now you could argue it's more protein shakes. So the macro headwinds we've seen these cycles before.

好的。然後回到PCB和一些穀物品類的逆風問題，我的意思是，我想大約十年前你就已經看到這種情況了，當時出生率下降。你需要一些調整[替代產品]。我記得那時候，早餐都是冷凍食品和餐廳。你可能會說，這更像是蛋白質奶昔。所以，我們以前在這些週期中也遇到宏觀層面的不利因素。

And I'm curious, if you put that to the side, do you see anything else fundamentally having changed, whether it's post inflation price points for the category whether it's a broader shift towards protein that's stickier this time around. I guess is there anything in the environment that's maybe more structurally changed that would sort of change how you grow the category, your aspirations for the category, your ability to kind of circle the wagons on the value price point?

我很好奇，撇開這些不談，你認為還有其他根本性的改變嗎？例如該類別的通膨後價格點，或是這次人們對蛋白質的消費習慣更加根深蒂固。我想，在當前環境下，是否存在一些結構性的變化，可能會改變你發展這個品類的方式、你對這個品類的期望，以及你在價值價格點上保持優勢的能力？

So there's certainly some impact on GLP-1s in the demand and I think there will be some lapping that has to occur in the next 6 to 18 months. So that's the one difference in the next -- in the prior decade that we didn't have.

因此，GLP-1 的需求肯定會受到一定影響，我認為在接下來的 6 到 18 個月內會出現一些需求下降的趨勢。所以，這就是接下來十年與前十年最大的不同之處──也是我們之前十年所沒有的。

Okay. Thanks, Rob. Thanks, Jeff.

好的。謝謝你，羅伯。謝謝你，傑夫。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

斯科特馬克斯，傑富瑞集團。

Hey guys, thanks for taking our questions. First one I wanted to ask about is we've heard from some of your competitors recently notably in cereal about more so increasing promotional activity to drive value for consumers. And I don't think I heard that mentioned kind of in your prepared remarks, more so around innovation. So just wondering if you can share any color on your thoughts on kind of the trade spend piece.

各位好，感謝你們回答我們的問題。首先我想問的是，我們最近從你們的一些競爭對手那裡了解到，尤其是在穀物食品領域，他們正在加大促銷力度，以提升消費者的價值。而且我覺得在你的發言稿中，尤其是在創新方面，我並沒有聽到這方面的提及。所以，我想問您能否分享一下您對貿易支出的看法。

So our view of the category, cereal we're talking about is that the promotional activities are what we would call normal levels. certainly go through ebbs and flows in a given year or a given time period within a year where one producer might be promoting more than others not and vice versa in subsequent periods.

所以，我們認為我們所討論的穀物食品類別的促銷活動處於正常水平。當然，在特定年份或特定時間內，促銷活動肯定會有起伏，有些生產商可能會比其他生產商更積極地進行促銷，而另一些生產商則不然，這種情況在隨後的時期則相反。

So we haven't seen anything that we would consider to be out of the ordinary for any significant stretch of time our personal approach is to continue to do the types of programs that drive value.

因此，在相當長的時間內，我們沒有看到任何我們認為不尋常的事情發生。我們個人的做法是繼續進行能夠創造價值的項目。

So we have seen that promotion promotion's sake does not generate the return in volume that you give up in price. So you have to find the sweet spot that works for your products and works for your profitability and the plan that we have now and going forward.

因此，我們已經看到，為了促銷而促銷並不能帶來因價格損失而獲得的銷售回報。所以你必須找到一個既適合你的產品，又能提高你的獲利能力，並且符合我們現在和未來計劃的最佳平衡點。

Got it. And then last one for me. I know it's still early in the acquisition of PDI, but just wondering if you can share any color on initial learnings or insights that you have from that and how you plan on leveraging that? Thanks.

知道了。最後，也是我最後一個問題。我知道現在收購 PDI 還處於早期階段，但我只是想知道您能否分享您從中獲得的初步經驗或見解，以及您計劃如何利用這些經驗或見解？謝謝。

Yes. It is early. I think the thing is that there are some synergies that we probably didn't realize are there that in the longer or medium to long term, and that will be there. Probably the other learning is that the initial integration we had some upset in our employee population there. That was probably a little bit more significant than we thought going in. So the ramp up that we're going to see is going to be slower than perhaps we initially expected.

是的。現在還早。我認為關鍵在於，我們可能沒有意識到存在一些協同效應，這些效應在中長期內將會存在。或許另一個教訓是，在最初的整合過程中，我們在那裡的員工群體出現了一些不滿情緒。這可能比我們最初預想的要重要一些。因此，我們將看到的成長速度可能會比我們最初預期的要慢。

But it's going to fit well into our network. It's going to provide us opportunities, like I mentioned before, that category in a different way compared to the way we've had it about it based on some constraints we've had before we acquired it.

但它將很好地融入我們的網絡。正如我之前提到的，它將為我們帶來機會，以一種與我們收購前受到的一些限制不同的方式來處理該類別的問題。

Understood. Thanks so much.

明白了。非常感謝。

Marc Torrente, Wells Fargo.

馬克‧托倫特，富國銀行。

Hey, good morning and thank you for the questions. I guess just first, grocery in general, category volumes remain under pressure. A lot of that's consumer pressure that we're seeing out there. thinking more in terms of relative performance, who are you seeing outperforming? Is it more value in private label? Is it smaller players? And then since quarter end, have you seen any sequential improvement in any of your category trends?

嗨，早安，謝謝你們的提問。首先，我想說的是，整體而言，食品雜貨類別的銷售量仍面臨壓力。我們看到很多時候，這都源自於消費者的壓力。從相對錶現的角度來看，你認為哪些公司表現較優？自有品牌更有價值嗎？是規模較小的玩家嗎？那麼，自季度末以來，您是否看到任何類別趨勢出現任何環比改善？

So the first part of your question, I think it's a real dichotomy. There's take cereal category as an example. You see some of the more premium organic natural marketed as healthier for you but fairly expensive. Not purely, really expensive price points doing well in the category while the overall category is not performing well.

所以，你問題的第一部分，我認為確實是二元對立的問題。以穀物食品為例。你會看到一些高端有機天然產品被宣傳為對你更健康，但價格也相當昂貴。並非完全如此，而是價格非常昂貴的商品在該類別中表現出色，而整個類別的表現卻不盡如人意。

So I think what we're seeing consumers is there's a pocket of consumers that are spending for what they perceive as better for them and are willing to pay essentially whatever necessary to get that type of product.

所以我覺得我們現在看到的消費者群體是，有一部分消費者願意為他們認為更好的產品買單，並且願意支付任何必要的費用來獲得這類產品。

And then you've got other consumers who are cutting back significantly and deloading their pantries and buying less frequently, which is affecting the expandable demand that we see in more normal times with cereal where people have products in their pantry and they tend to eat it when it's available.

還有一些消費者大幅削減開支，清空食品儲藏室，減少購買頻率，這影響了我們在正常時期看到的穀物類產品的可擴展需求，因為人們的食品儲藏室裡會有穀物產品，而且他們往往會在有貨的時候就吃掉。

What we're seeing is that they're just deloading their pantries because they don't have the money to go and free stock. And then -- I'm sorry, I zoned out on the second part of your question?

我們看到的情況是，他們只是在清空食品儲藏室，因為他們沒有錢去購買免費庫存。然後——抱歉，我沒聽清楚你問題的第二部分？

Yes. Just any sequential improvement since quarter end in any of your categories?

是的。自季度末以來，你們的任何類別是否有任何環比改善？

Yes. The -- is not a great improvement, but the worst months for cereal were February and March, a little bit of improvement in April, but we're clearly not ready to claim victory in that regard.

是的。雖然情況沒有太大改善，但穀物銷售最糟糕的月份是二月和三月，四月略有好轉，但我們顯然還不能就此宣布勝利。

Okay. And then just an update on the RTD shake manufacturing ramp. Shakes were called out as the driver of positive food service volumes. Did you make better progress during the quarter than you expected? And is your outlook for the contribution there is still consistent with prior?

好的。最後，再更新一下RTD奶昔生產爬坡進度的情況。奶昔被認為是推動餐飲服務銷售成長的主要因素。本季你的進度是否超乎預期？你對未來貢獻的看法是否仍與先前一致？

Keep in mind that the baseline comparison was essentially 0 for shakes so compared to last year, any production would have been an improvement. We are seeing improvement sequentially. It's slower than what we would like it to be, but it is trending in a favorable direction, but it is still not a material contributor to profit at the current levels.

請記住，奶昔的基準比較基本上為 0，因此與去年相比，任何產量都會增加。我們看到情況逐一改善。雖然成長速度比我們預期的要慢，但正朝著有利的方向發展，不過在目前的水平上，它仍然不是利潤的實質貢獻者。

So we would expect the continued ramp up again, maybe a little bit slower than we had hoped when we communicated this 6, 9 months ago. But in the long run, we still see the same finish line in terms of where that profitability can take us.

因此，我們預計產量將繼續逐步增加，但速度可能會比我們6到9個月前傳達這項訊息時所希望的速度稍慢一些。但從長遠來看，就獲利能力能帶我們走向何方而言，我們看到的終點線仍然是一樣的。

Carla Casella, JPMorgan.

卡拉‧卡塞拉，摩根大通。

Hi, and thank you. One follow-up from Ken's question about 8th Avenue. What are the options there? And is there a scenario where you buy and reconsolidate that business?

您好，謝謝。針對 Ken 關於第八大道的問題，我還有一個後續問題。有哪些選擇？是否有收購並重新整合該業務的情況？

Well, I think I would start with recalling that we wrote this to 2 or 3 years ago. With that, we consider it like a new investment opportunity with which we have a great deal of prayer experience and knowledge. Beyond that, I'm not going to comment on the various iterations of opportunities that could exist for the company.

嗯，我想我應該先回憶一下，這篇文章是我們兩三年前寫的。因此，我們將其視為一項新的投資機會，我們對此擁有豐富的祈禱經驗和知識。除此之外，我不會對公司可能存在的各種發展機會發表評論。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's Post Holdings Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的 Post Holdings 2025 年第二季財報電話會議和網路直播到此結束。請您暫時斷開電話，祝您有美好的一天。