Post Holdings Inc (POST) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Post Holdings fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel O'Rourke, Investor Relations for Post.

歡迎參加 Post Holdings 2025 年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉交給郵政投資者關係部門的丹尼爾·奧羅克。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for Post's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Call. I'm joined this morning by Rob Vitale, our President and CEO; Jeff Zadoks, our COO; and Matt Mainer, our CFO and Treasurer. Rob, Jeff and Matt will make prepared remarks, and afterwards, we'll answer your questions.

早安.感謝您今天參加Post公司2025財年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上和我一起的有我們的總裁兼執行長羅伯·維塔萊；我們的營運長傑夫·扎多克斯；以及我們的財務長兼財務主管馬特·梅納。羅布、傑夫和馬特將發表事先準備好的講話，之後我們將回答你們的問題。

The press release that supports these remarks is posted on both the investors and the SEC filings portions of our website and is also available on the SEC's website. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website at postholdings.com.

支持這些言論的新聞稿已發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分和美國證券交易委員會備案部分，也可在美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。再次提醒，本次通話正在錄音，錄音回放將在我們的網站 postholdings.com 上提供。

Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain certain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements. This call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website.

在繼續之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，投資者應仔細考慮，因為實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本次電話會議之日的信息，管理層不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。本次電話會議將討論某些非GAAP指標。有關這些非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們昨天發布的新聞稿，該新聞稿已發佈在我們的網站上。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.

接下來，我將把電話交給羅布。

Thanks, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. We had a good FY '25, and we ended with a strong quarter. It was an interesting year as we navigated regulatory changes, tariffs, Avian Flu and uncertain consumer sentiment. Despite this challenging environment, our portfolio of businesses displayed resilient and delivered strong results. We expect that the benefits of our diversification will allow us to navigate an environment of continued uncertainty.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，大家早安。我們在 2025 財年取得了不錯的成績，並以強勁的季度業績結束了該財年。這是充滿挑戰的一年，我們經歷了監管變化、關稅上漲、禽流感疫情以及消費者情緒的不確定性。儘管面臨如此充滿挑戰的環境，我們的業務組合依然展現出強大的韌性，並且取得了優異的業績。我們預期多元化投資帶來的好處將使我們能夠應對持續不確定的環境。

We expect to continued volume growth in our Foodservice business, especially in our highest value products. In Retail, we remain disciplined in the face of a very challenging volume landscape, keeping our focus on cost reduction and profitable brand investments.

我們預期餐飲服務業務的銷售將持續成長，尤其是高價值產品。在零售領域，面對極具挑戰性的銷售情勢，我們保持嚴謹的態度，並持續專注於降低成本和進行獲利的品牌投資。

Jeff and Matt will provide detail on our FY '26 outlook, but we will focus on what we can control. And from that perspective, I like our positioning. I expect Foodservice to provide volume growth and our Retail businesses to generate considerable cash flow to fund both organic and inorganic opportunities.

Jeff 和 Matt 將詳細介紹我們 2026 財年的展望，但我們將重點放在我們能夠控制的事情上。從這個角度來看，我喜歡我們的市場定位。我預計餐飲服務業務將帶來銷售成長，零售業務將產生可觀的現金流，為有機成長和有機擴張提供資金支持。

In that vein, the highlight of FY '25 was our strong operating cash flow, which allowed us to maintain flat net leverage, while making key capital investments completing two tactical acquisitions and buying back over 11% of the company. With a step down in capital spending and the benefits from the new tax law, we expect a meaningful increase in FY '26 free cash flow.

從這個角度來看，2025 財年的亮點是我們強勁的營運現金流，這使我們能夠在保持淨槓桿率不變的情況下進行關鍵的資本投資，完成兩項戰術性收購併回購公司 11% 以上的股份。隨著資本支出減少以及新稅法的實施，我們預計 2026 財年自由現金流將大幅成長。

Coupled with our long-dated debt maturity ladder, we can be opportunistic with our capital allocation decisions. We continue to review M&A opportunities, and benchmark them against buying back our own shares.

結合我們長期債務到期階梯結構，我們可以靈活運用資金進行投資。我們會持續評估併購機會，並將其與回購自身股份進行比較。

I would like to thank all of our employees for another successful year. The strength and diversification of our operating model combines with dedicated employees give me a great deal of confidence in continuing our track record of value creation. Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to make a personal comment. Bill has been a mentor, business partner and friend for nearly 30 years, and I expect that to continue regardless of titles. Jeff?

我要感謝所有員工，感謝他們另一年來的成功。我們營運模式的實力和多元化，加上敬業的員工，讓我對我們繼續保持創造價值的良好記錄充滿信心。在把電話交給傑夫之前，我想先說幾句我個人的看法。近 30 年來，比爾一直是我的導師、商業夥伴和朋友，我希望無論頭銜如何，這種關係都能繼續下去。傑夫？

Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong consolidated results in Q4. Our cold chain businesses did a fantastic job in navigating HPAI. In addition, across the entire portfolio, cost reductions and manufacturing execution combined to more than offset the impact of lower retail volumes.

謝謝羅布，大家早安。我們在第四季度取得了強勁的綜合業績。我們的冷鏈業務在應對高致病性禽流感方面做得非常出色。此外，在整個產品組合中，成本降低和生產執行的改進相結合，足以抵消零售量下降的影響。

At Post Consumer Brands, our branded and private label cereal businesses experienced consumption declines resulting from challenging category dynamics. (inaudible) volume consumption was down versus a flat category driven primarily by Nutrish. As a reminder, we are adjusting the value proposition and messaging for this brand with changes to be in market by the end of fiscal Q2, a bright spot in Pet was Kibbles 'n Bits, which had a strong consumption volume versus the prior year.

在Post Consumer Brands，我們的品牌和自有品牌穀物業務因品類動態變化帶來的挑戰，銷售量出現下滑。 （聽不清楚）整體穀物品類銷售持平，而Nutrish的銷售成長是推動這一趨勢的主要因素。提醒一下，我們正在調整該品牌的價值主張和訊息傳遞方式，相關變更將於第二財季末在市場上實施。寵物食品領域的一大亮點是 Kibbles 'n Bits，其消費量與前一年相比強勁增長。

In spite of the volume challenges, we were successful in growing our Consumer Brands EBITDA margin, excluding 8th Avenue by 100 basis points, driven by improved mix in Cereal and strong cost management across the segment. Our upcoming cereal plant closures will further help to alleviate the impact of cereal category declines.

儘管面臨銷售挑戰，但由於穀物產品組合的改善和整個業務板塊的強勁成本控制，我們成功地將消費品牌 EBITDA 利潤率（不包括 8th Avenue）提高了 100 個基點。我們即將關閉的穀物加工廠將進一步有助於緩解穀物品類下滑的影響。

Setting aside HPAI, Foodservice had strong underlying performance, driven by growth in both egg and potato volumes. While a portion of Q4 egg volume growth was related to timing from improved egg availability and customer inventory replenishment, we continue to see strong demand, in particular for our higher value-added products. Volumes for these higher-margin egg products grew nearly 9% in the quarter and approximately 6% for the full year.

撇開高致病性禽流感不談，餐飲服務業基本面表現強勁，主要得益於雞蛋和馬鈴薯銷售的成長。雖然第四季度雞蛋銷售成長的一部分與雞蛋供應改善和客戶庫存補充的時間有關，但我們仍然看到強勁的需求，特別是對我們高附加價值產品的需求。這些高利潤蛋製品的銷量在本季度增長了近 9%，全年增長了約 6%。

Our HPAI impacted egg supply came back online as expected in Q4, allowing us to continue gradually winding down pricing matters. As we enter fiscal '26 we are well positioned to continue the normalized growth trend in this business.

第四季度，受高致病性禽流感影響的雞蛋供應如預期般恢復正常，這使我們能夠繼續逐步結束價格問題。進入 2026 財年，我們已做好充分準備，繼續保持該業務的正常成長趨勢。

In Refrigerated Retail, dinner sides grew volumes in the quarter driven by targeted promotions and new private label offerings that began shipping toward the end of the quarter, Private label offerings are expected to contribute low single-digit volume growth in FY '26. Segment profitability had some continued tailwinds from HPAI pricing matters again this quarter.

在冷藏零售領域，受有針對性的促銷活動和本季末開始發貨的新自有品牌產品的推動，晚餐配菜在本季度銷量增長。預計自有品牌產品將在 2026 財年貢獻個位數的低銷售成長。本季度，HPAI定價因素再次為該業務板塊的獲利能力帶來了一些利好。

At Weetabix, our flagship yellow box product consumption performed in line with the improving cereal category, which was down less than 1%. The noticeable improvement in the UK cereal category over recent quarters is an encouraging trend. Meanwhile, we continue to execute against our identified cost-out opportunities as we consolidate our private label production, resulting in a plant closure in mid-fiscal year.

在維他麥，我們的旗艦黃色包裝盒產品的消費表現與不斷改善的穀物品類一致，下降幅度不到 1%。英國穀物食品市場近幾個季度以來的顯著改善是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。同時，我們繼續執行已確定的成本削減計劃，整合自有品牌生產，導致本財年中期一家工廠關閉。

Turning to FY '26. We have planned for a more normalized environment in our cold chain businesses as we begin the year with egg supply back in balance, allowing us to focus on driving volume growth in both Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail. For the balance of our portfolio, we are projecting some improvement in the cereal category as we lap certain FY '25 pressures. However, we do not expect a full return to historical trends.

展望2026財年。隨著今年雞蛋供應恢復平衡，我們的冷鏈業務環境將更加正常化，這使我們能夠專注於推動餐飲服務和冷藏零售業務的銷售成長。對於我們投資組合的其他部分，我們預期穀類產品會有所改善，因為我們將克服 2025 財年的某些壓力。然而，我們並不預期會完全恢復到歷史趨勢。

To support volumes across the entire company, we will make targeted investments, including innovation, where we see profitable opportunities. However, as Rob mentioned, we remain focused on protecting margins and our strong cash flow.

為了支持公司整體業務量，我們將有針對性地進行投資，包括創新，在我們認為有利可圖的領域進行投資。但是，正如羅布所提到的，我們仍然專注於保護利潤率和強勁的現金流。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt.

接下來，我將把電話交給馬特。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. Fourth quarter consolidated net sales were $2.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $425 million. Sales increased 12% driven by our acquisition of 8th Avenue. Excluding the acquisition, net sales declined driven by lower pet food and cereal volumes, partially offset by Avian Influenza driven pricing and egg volume growth.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。第四季合併淨銷售額為 22 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 4.25 億美元。受收購 8th Avenue 的推動，銷售額成長了 12%。不計收購的影響，淨銷售額下降，主要原因是寵物食品和穀物銷量減少，但禽流感導致的價格上漲和雞蛋銷售成長部分抵消了這一影響。

Turning to our segments. Post Consumer Brands net sales, excluding the contribution from 8th Avenue, decreased 13%, driven by lower volumes in both grocery and pet. Cereal volumes decreased 8% due to category and competitive dynamics. At Pet, our volumes declined 13%, driven by lost private label business we mentioned in the last quarter, and we are continuing to experience consumption declines as we reset our Nutrish brand. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 2%, which includes a $20 million contribution from 8th Avenue.

接下來進入我們的節目環節。不包括 8th Avenue 的貢獻，Post Consumer Brands 的淨銷售額下降了 13%，主要原因是食品雜貨和寵物用品的銷售量均有所下降。受品類和競爭格局的影響，穀物銷量下降了 8%。在寵物用品方面，由於上一季自有品牌業務的損失，我們的銷售量下降了 13%，隨著我們重新調整 Nutrish 品牌，消費量仍在持續下降。分部調整後 EBITDA 成長 2%，其中包括 8th Avenue 貢獻的 2,000 萬美元。

Excluding 8th Avenue, adjusted EBITDA decreased 8% versus prior year as the impact of lower volumes were partially offset by improved cost management, especially in SG&A.

除第八大道外，調整後的 EBITDA 比上年下降 8%，因為銷售下降的影響部分被成本管理的改善所抵消，尤其是在銷售、一般及行政費用方面。

Moving to Foodservice. Net sales increased 20% on both pricing and an 11% volume increase. Excluding the impact of our PPI acquisitions, volumes increased 9% on higher egg, potato and shake volumes. The increased volumes and Avian Influenza driven pricing drove the revenue increase. Adjusted EBITDA increased 50% driven by Avian Influenza driven pricing and the previously mentioned volume growth in our value-added egg and potato products.

轉行到餐飲服務業。淨銷售額成長了 20%，這得益於價格上漲和銷量成長 11%。不計入 PPI 收購的影響，銷量成長了 9%，主要得益於雞蛋、馬鈴薯和奶昔銷量的成長。銷量增加和禽流感疫情導致的價格上漲推動了收入成長。受禽流感推動的價格上漲以及先前提到的增值雞蛋和馬鈴薯產品銷售成長的推動，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 50%。

Refrigerated Retail net sales were flat and volumes, excluding the impact of PPI, fell 4%. The volume decline was driven by sauces and eggs, which experienced elasticities due to pricing to offset input costs. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 44%, benefiting from Avian Influenza pricing adders and lapping some elevated SG&A costs in the prior year.

冷藏零售淨銷售額持平，不計 PPI 的影響，銷售量下降 4%。銷售量下降主要受醬料和蛋蛋的影響，由於價格彈性較大，需要彌補投入成本。分部調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 44%，受益於禽流感定價增加，並抵銷了上一年部分較高的銷售、一般及行政費用。

Weetabix net sales increased 4% versus the prior year. Foreign currency represented a tailwind of 360 basis points. Overall volumes decreased 3% as our core yellow box product volumes declined by 6%, offset by volume growth in UFIT, which was up 41% versus the prior year. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 1% versus prior year due to currency tailwinds, partially offset by lower volumes and increased inflation-driven costs.

維他麥淨銷售額比上年成長4%。外匯匯率帶來了360個基點的利多。整體銷量下降了 3%，其中核心黃盒產品銷量下降了 6%，但 UFIT 銷量成長抵消了這一降幅，UFIT 銷量比上年增長了 41%。受匯率利好影響，分部調整後 EBITDA 較上年成長 1%，但部分被銷售下降及通膨驅動成本增加所抵銷。

Turning to cash flow. In the quarter, we generated $301 million from operations. Our free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $150 million as we invested in key projects in both PCB and Foodservice businesses. Free cash flow for the full year was nearly $500 million, driven by strong operating cash flow, net of elevated CapEx. In the quarter, we repurchased 2.6 million shares bringing our fiscal '25 total repurchases to 6.4 million shares.

接下來談談現金流。本季度，我們的營運收入為 3.01 億美元。由於我們對印刷電路板和食品服務業務的關鍵項目進行了投資，本季我們的自由現金流約為 1.5 億美元。全年自由現金流接近 5 億美元，主要得益於強勁的營運現金流（扣除較高的資本支出後）。本季度，我們回購了 260 萬股股票，使我們 2025 財年的總回購量達到 640 萬股。

We are active in share repurchase following the end of the quarter, buying back approximately 1 million shares. Net leverage in accordance with our credit agreement ended the fiscal year at 4.4x, relatively flat to how we began the year.

季度末後，我們將積極進行股票回購，回購約 100 萬股股票。根據我們的信貸協議，本財年結束時淨槓桿率為 4.4 倍，與年初相比基本持平。

Before we get to Q&A, I have a few comments on our fiscal '26 guidance. As stated in our earnings release last night, including two months of pasta contribution, we expect our FY '26 adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.50 billion to $1.54 billion. This range reflects approximately a 1% to 4% growth rate to a normalized FY '25. Relative to FY '25 Q4, we expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA to decrease meaningfully and driven by HPAI normalization and seasonality declines in US and UK.

在進入問答環節之前，我想先對我們 2026 財年的業績預期做一些說明。正如我們昨晚發布的盈利報告中所述，包括兩個月的意大利麵業務貢獻，我們預計 2026 財年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 15 億美元至 15.4 億美元之間。這一範圍反映了到 2025 財年正常化水準時約 1% 至 4% 的成長率。與 2025 財年第四季相比，我們預計第一季調整後的 EBITDA 將大幅下降，主要原因是美國和英國 HPAI 的正常化和季節性下降。

cereal partially offset by seasonality benefits in Refrigerated Retail. For the full year, we expect second half favorability to the first half.

冷藏零售中穀物產品的季節性收益部分抵消了其價格下跌。我們預計全年下半年業績將優於上半年。

Finally, our CapEx guidance of $350 million to $390 million is down notably from FY '25 as we completed key investments within PCB and Foodservice. FY '26 will continue to see elevated spending in Foodservice as we invest behind growth for both pre-cooked and cage free.

最後，由於我們在PCB和餐飲服務領域完成了關鍵投資，我們的資本支出指導目標從2025財年的3.5億美元到3.9億美元大幅下降。2026 財年，餐飲服務領域的支出將繼續保持較高水平，我們將投資於預製食品和放養食品的成長。

Thank you for joining us today, and I'll now turn the call over to the operator.

感謝您今天收看我們的節目，現在我將把電話交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe, Rob, to start off. We've certainly seen industry volume remain sort of challenged. We can see some of that reflected in your PCB segment in Cereal and Pet. You've been aggressively buying back your own shares in lieu of, I guess, more interesting portfolio opportunities. The last time valuations in the group were really under this much pressure was sort of the late '90s and the group got out of it through larger-scale M&A perhaps this time is different.

或許，羅布，可以先從這方面著手。我們確實看到行業銷售持續受到一定挑戰。我們可以在您的穀物和寵物食品PCB業務板塊中看到一些體現。我猜，你一直在積極回購自己的股票，而不是去尋找更有吸引力的投資組合機會。該集團上一次估值面臨如此大的壓力還是在上世紀90年代末，當時該集團透過更大規模的併購擺脫了困境，也許這次情況有所不同。

I think some investors maybe see the current weaknesses maybe more structural rather than cyclical.

我認為一些投資者可能認為當前的疲軟更多是結構性的，而不是週期性的。

And I guess I'm curious how this dynamic sort of informs your capital allocation decisions and is M&A still the right approach given how cheap assets are or is buying back stock at these levels more sensible, if one believes the terminal growth rate of potential acquisition candidates is simply lower going forward? I guess what I'm asking is whether this represents another buying opportunity in the space like the late '90s? Or is it somewhat different?

我很好奇這種動態如何影響你們的資本配置決策，鑑於資產價格如此低廉，併購是否仍然是正確的方法？或者，如果認為潛在收購對象的最終成長率未來會降低，那麼在這種價位回購股票是否更明智？我想問的是，這是否代表著像 90 年代末那樣，該領域又出現了一次買入機會？或情況略有不同？

Well, if the ultimate question is it structural or cyclical, I think you have to tell us how long the cycle will last. I think it's different in the following manner. I think the big difference is the cost of capital has changed dramatically. We've been in a long-term decline. And now we're in what could be an inflection point where we see more increased pressure than decrease.

嗯，如果最終的問題是結構性的還是週期性的，我認為你必須告訴我們這個週期會持續多久。我認為它的不同之處在於以下幾點。我認為最大的差異在於資金成本發生了巨大變化。我們一直處於長期衰退之中。現在我們可能正處於一個轉折點，壓力增加的趨勢將大於壓力下降的趨勢。

And I think that starts to develop the strategy. And I think in lieu of a reflexive position of we're just going to use M&A to get bigger. It needs to be a little more thoughtful and perhaps a little bit more focused around focus so that we can look at opportunities to be better rather than just bigger. And that sounds a little bit cliche, but I think it's true. Where we have opportunities to be more focused in some area that I think we should take them and where there are opportunities to be more efficient in other areas we should take them.

我認為這就開始製定戰略了。我認為，我們不應該想當然地認為，我們只需要透過併購就能發展壯大。我們需要更加深思熟慮，或許還需要更加重視重點，這樣我們才能找到變得更好的機會，而不僅僅是規模更大。這聽起來有點老套，但我認為這是事實。我認為，如果在某些領域有機會讓我們更專注，我們就應該抓住這些機會；如果在其他領域有機會讓我們更有效率，我們也應該抓住這些機會。

From our perspective, we don't necessarily differentiate between M&A and buybacks. So what we try to do is compare them from a potential return perspective and a risk perspective and then compare them. So we really don't look at it and say, if we buy back shares, we're going to shrink or look at our multiple different. We look at that and say, what is the best risk return adjusted way to use our capital.

從我們的角度來看，我們並不一定區分併購和股票回購。因此，我們嘗試從潛在回報的角度和風險的角度來比較它們。所以，我們真的不會去考慮，如果我們回購股票，我們的本益比就會下降，或者我們會考慮不同的估值倍數。我們會考慮這個問題，並思考如何以最佳的風險回報調整方式來運用我們的資本。

Great. I know on the last earnings call, I think you talked about all the asset optimization efforts, right, that you're undertaking in (inaudible) Cereal and that those could kind of get plant utilization maybe back up to around the mid-80s that the cereal category continued to be weak or below its historic rate of decline maybe further actions on the cost side sort of would be need to be considered. And I guess I'm curious what sort of actions could we be talking about? And maybe are you considering any additional ones, given I think your comments in the prepared remarks that we're -- don't see the category in fiscal '26 necessarily getting back to its -- what's been its longer or historical rate of decline.

偉大的。我知道在上次財報電話會議上，您談到了您正在進行的（聽不清楚）穀物業務的所有資產優化工作，對吧？這些工作可能會使工廠利用率恢復到 80% 左右。如果穀物業務持續疲軟或低於其歷史下降速度，或許需要考慮在成本方面採取進一步措施。我想知道我們究竟在討論什麼樣的行動？鑑於您在準備好的發言稿中提到，我們認為 2026 財年該類別未必會恢復到其長期以來或歷史上的下降速度，您是否正在考慮增加其他類別？

Certainly, there are additional opportunities we can take on cost reduction. But I think the magnitude start to get smaller as the bigger things like plant closure have occurred. So we are looking at things like line optimization rather than plant optimization. So they continue to be good opportunities, but we've obviously taken the larger ones first.

當然，我們還有其他降低成本的機會。但我認為，隨著工廠關閉等更大事件的發生，這種影響的程度開始縮小。所以我們關注的是生產線優化，而不是工廠優化。所以這些仍然是很好的機會，但我們顯然先抓住了更大的機會。

Tom Palmer, J.P. Morgan.

湯姆‧帕爾默，摩根大通。

Thanks for the question. You have normalized growth outlook that you've given for your segments? And I guess, maybe thinking through those segments for fiscal '26, which ones do you kind of see as being more consistent with that normalized outlook after we adjust for M&A and Avian Influenza? And maybe which ones are light. I mean I know there was the PCB commentary, but kind of curious, I guess, in the other areas.

謝謝你的提問。你們針對各個業務板塊給出了標準化的成長預期嗎？我想，考慮到 2026 財年的各個細分市場，在調整併購和禽流感等因素後，您認為哪些細分市場更符合正常化的預期？或許還要考慮哪些是輕便的。我知道有PCB方面的評論，但我想對其他方面也有些好奇。

Sure. So I think from when you look at the PCB legacy business, we see that as more flat so not growing the 2% we have in our algorithm this year given what we've got going on in cereal, but also the Nutrish reset that won't take place until midyear. And in the balance of the portfolio, honestly, we see in line with those algos.

當然。所以我覺得，從PCB傳統業務來看，它成長比較平穩，今年不會像我們演算法預測的那樣成長2%，因為我們在穀物業務方面有所進展，而且Nutrish的重置要到年中才會進行。坦白說，在投資組合的平衡方面，我們看到與這些演算法相符。

Okay. And I guess a follow-up on the (inaudible). A quarter ago, you talked about in Foodservice around $115 million EBITDA being like a normalized run rate. We have seen real volume strength in that segment. And I appreciate the past year had some Avian Flu, but why is 115 still the right number?

好的。我想就此進行後續討論。（聽不清楚）一個季度前，您提到餐飲服務業的 EBITDA 約為 1.15 億美元，相當於正常運作率。我們已經看到該細分市場銷量顯著增長。我知道去年爆發了禽流感，但為什麼 115 仍然是正確的數字？

Or should we be thinking about something maybe a bit higher to start out the year?

或者我們應該考慮在年初設定更高的目標？

No. I mean, we think 115 is the right number, and that was really a benchmark we put last quarter, and that's how we think about fiscal '25, I think fair to assume that grows in line with algo for fiscal '26. So by the end of the year would be obviously something more like $120 million. But again, I think we talked about it last quarter as well. We would like to have a quarter or two of some normalcy so we can get a better read on that.

不。我的意思是，我們認為 115 是一個合適的數字，這確實是我們在上個季度設定的一個基準，也是我們對 2025 財年的看法，我認為可以合理地假設它在 2026 財年將按照既定演算法增長。所以到年底，顯然會達到 1.2 億美元左右。但我想我們上個季度也討論過這個問題。我們希望能夠恢復一到兩個季度的正常狀態，以便更好地了解情況。

As you pointed out, there's a lot of noise with Avian Influenza. We definitely had some catch-up this past quarter with customer inventory levels, given some of the challenges with AI, but really do see the base business continue to perform quite well.

正如你所指出的，關於禽流感有很多傳言。鑑於人工智慧帶來的一些挑戰，上個季度我們在客戶庫存水準方面確實進行了一些調整，但我們確實看到基礎業務繼續表現良好。

So I think we'll revisit in another quarter, but how we benchmark normal a normalized run rate was against that $115 million and then growing 5% in fiscal '26.

所以我認為我們會在另一個季度再來討論這個問題，但我們衡量正常正常運行率的標準是 1.15 億美元，然後在 2026 財年增長 5%。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯，史蒂費爾。

I wanted to ask about the performance in Refrigerated Retail you had a nice 20% EBITDA margin in the quarter, but you called out some AI pricing benefits there. As we look forward, is this business that's on solid footing to maintain kind of a high teens EBITDA margin in a normal environment?

我想問一下冷藏零售業務的業績，你們本季的 EBITDA 利潤率達到了 20%，但你們也提到了人工智慧在定價方面帶來的好處。展望未來，這家企業是否具備在正常環境下維持十幾個百分點的 EBITDA 利潤率的穩固基礎？

Sure. So we definitely similar to Foodservice, but on a much smaller scale. We had some pricing benefits that fell away at the end of the quarter. So that was a little bit inflated because of that, but we are seeing better performance and better volume performance around private label, which is improving capacity utilization I think with that said, in the holiday season for them, we've always had significant seasonality. I think high teens is reasonable.

當然。所以，我們和餐飲服務業很相似，只是規模小得多。我們在季度末獲得了一些價格優惠，但這些優惠都消失了。所以，由於這個原因，銷量可能略有上升，但我們看到自有品牌的業績和銷量都有所提高，我認為這提高了產能利用率。話雖如此，在假日季，他們的銷售量一直存在明顯的季節性波動。我認為十幾分比較合理。

When you talk about those periods in our slower part of the year, you're going to return to more call it, 16% or so of margins. It's not going to be high teens.

當你談到一年中業務淡季的那些時期時，利潤率將會回落到大約 16% 左右。不會是十度。

And Rob, as a follow-up to some of the commentary about the industry we are seeing private label trends vary across post categories, gaining some share in Pet categories, while having a softer performance in the Cereal category currently. Is there anything to read through in terms of category by category, how consumers are trading down into private label any observation you have, whether it's price gap depending or really category dependent?

羅布，針對一些關於行業的評論，我們看到自有品牌趨勢在不同的產品類別中有所不同，在寵物用品類別中獲得了一些份額，而目前在穀物類別中的表現則較為疲軟。有沒有什麼關於消費者如何逐類購買自有品牌產品的資料可以參考？你有什麼觀察？這種現像是取決於價格差距還是真正取決於產品類別？

You took the words right out of the month. It's really priced GAAP dependent. We're starting to see consumers be a little bit more gone to promotional activity, and it moves inversely to that.

你把這句話說得跟本月的歌詞完全一樣。它的定價確實取決於GAAP準則。我們開始看到消費者對促銷活動越來越感興趣，而促銷活動則與之呈反比關係。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

Scott Marks，傑富瑞集團。

First thing I wanted to ask about in the prepared comments, you mentioned making targeted investments in 2026 with some innovation potential. Just wondering if you can kind of share some details about how you're thinking about some of those investments and maybe what categories you would like to invest in? And anything else you can comment on that.

首先我想問的是，在準備好的評論中，您提到將在 2026 年進行一些具有創新潛力的有針對性的投資。想問您能否分享一下您對這些投資的看法，以及您想投資哪些類別？還有其他想補充的嗎？

It's the typical type of investment for brand innovation that you have seen historically. We took a pause on some of those during the pandemic, and it's been something that we haven't been quick to renew in the last couple of years. But it's going to be line extensions in really every retail category.

這是你在歷史上經常看到的典型品牌創新投資類型。疫情期間，我們暫停了其中一些項目，而且在過去的幾年裡，我們也沒有急於恢復這些項目。但實際上，所有零售類別都會出現產品線延伸。

So in Cereal, as an example, we're going to be bringing some protein products. We're going to be bringing some granola products, which are areas of the category that are more -- that are growing better than the rest of the category. But you're going to see that sort of thing in our Refrigerated Retail business as well. And in Pet, a lot of that is directed towards the Nutrish relaunch although we'll see some smaller innovations in some of the other brands as well.

以穀物食品為例，我們將推出一些蛋白質產品。我們將引進一些格蘭諾拉麥片產品，這類產品是該品類中成長最快的領域之一。但你也會在我們的冷藏零售業務中看到類似的情況。在寵物用品方面，許多投入都集中在 Nutrish 的重新推出上，不過我們也會在其它一些品牌中看到一些較小的創新。

Got it. Next question for me. Just as we look at the Foodservice business and some of the demand for some of the value-add products, it sounds like you're expecting some of that momentum to sustain as we get into next fiscal year. Maybe what gives you confidence that some of your operator partners will continue to demand these products at these high levels and just any comments you can share about the overall backdrop for your operators right now.

知道了。下一個問題。正如我們觀察餐飲服務業務以及對一些增值產品的需求一樣，聽起來您預計這種勢頭將在下一個財政年度得以延續。是什麼讓您相信您的部分營運商合作夥伴會繼續以如此高的需求量採購這些產品？您能否就目前營運商的整體情況分享一些看法？

So there's a couple of things we would point to. One is really a long history of that business, moving customers up the value chain. So starting from lower value-added products, moving them up to higher value-added products and the value proposition that they see when doing so, it's a function of the labor dynamic in their operations. when they move up the value chain. So that's been a multiyear, almost decade long, maybe multi-decade long trajectory of the category, which we don't see any slowdown in that happening.

所以，有幾點值得注意。一方面，這家企業有著悠久的歷史，致力於協助客戶提升價值鏈。因此，從低附加價值產品開始，逐步升級到高附加價值產品，以及他們在過程中所看到的價值主張，取決於他們營運中的勞動力動態，以及他們沿著價值鏈向上發展的過程。所以，這個類別已經經歷了多年的發展軌跡，幾乎長達十年，甚至可能長達數十年，我們看不到這種發展趨勢有任何放緩的跡象。

The one more perhaps unique situation with Avian Influenza and the pricing that has -- the pricing dynamic that has been caused by that in shell eggs has caused some customers to convert to liquid eggs, the ones that are able to convert because over this period of time, liquid eggs have been less expensive than shell eggs. What we have seen in the past probably on a smaller scale than what we've seen this last cycle is that there's some stickiness to people who have converted to liquid eggs initially just for the pure price play because they find that the efficiency in their operations is such that even if the prices are more competitive with one another between liquid and shell eggs that they find efficiencies in remaining with liquid eggs.

禽流感及其對雞蛋價格的影響，或許帶來了一種獨特的局面——這種影響導致一些顧客轉而購買液態蛋，因為在此期間，液態蛋的價格低於帶殼雞蛋。我們過去可能看到（雖然規模比上一輪週期要小）的情況是，有些人最初只是因為價格原因而改用液態蛋，但他們發現，即使液態蛋和殼蛋的價格更具競爭力，他們仍然會堅持使用液態蛋，因為他們的運營效率很高。

So we have some belief that given what we've seen over the last 12 to 18 months that the stickiness of those customers that have converted will continue.

因此，根據過去 12 到 18 個月的情況來看，我們有理由相信，那些轉換後的客戶的黏性將會持續下去。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Just one, can you maybe unpack some of the key moving parts there? And maybe just remind us the cadence of some of the private label cuts and distribution losses or the command cuts and when you've lapped those and just how to think about the puts and takes through the year?

就一個問題，您能不能詳細解釋一下其中的一些關鍵零件？或許可以提醒我們一些自有品牌產品削減和分銷損失或指令性產品削減的節奏，以及何時才能克服這些損失，並思考如何在整個年度中進行賣出和賣出操作？

Sure. So a year ago, we were working our way through fiscal '25 through some profit enhancing decisions we had made and we've fully lapped those as we exited '25. So in '26, what we've yet to lap that as we developed during '25 as we lost some private label business. We continue to pursue opportunities there, but we won't lap that until we get to the midpoint of the fiscal year. So I think as we think about the business and the volume trajectory, the first half of the year see really more down mid- to high single digits.

當然。所以一年前，我們正努力透過一些提高利潤的決策來應對 2025 財年，而隨著 2025 年的結束，我們已經完全超越了這些決策。所以到了 2026 年，我們還沒有趕上 2025 年的發展，因為我們失去了一些自有品牌業務。我們將繼續在那裡尋求機會，但要等到本財年中期才會停止。所以我認為，當我們考慮業務和銷售走勢時，今年上半年銷售量真的會下降個位數中高段。

And then as we get to the midpoint of the year and Nutrish's on shelf, and we lap that private label loss, we'd be back to more flat to maybe some slight growth year-over-year.

然後，到了年中，Nutrish 上架銷售，我們彌補了自有品牌的損失，我們的業績就會恢復到與去年同期持平，甚至可能略有增長。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then you touched on some of the price gaps. Maybe just specifically for Cereal, can you help us understand what you're seeing there?

好的。偉大的。那很有幫助。然後您談到了一些價格差距問題。或許可以專門針對「穀物」這個主題，您能幫我們理解一下您在那裡看到的內容嗎？

How radial does pricing seem? And any sense of why you're not seeing a little bit more benefit from trading down?

定價模式看起來有多激進？你覺得為什麼降級交易沒有帶來更多好處？

We've had some pretty competitive pressure and promotional activities over the last several months. They seem to be changing. And I think it's no more complicated than that as some our competitors have been more promotional. The private label offering has been less competitive.

過去幾個月，我們面臨相當大的競爭壓力和促銷活動。他們似乎正在改變。我認為事情就是這麼簡單，因為我們的一些競爭對手在促銷方面做得更多。自有品牌產品的競爭力較弱。

Marc Torrente, Wells Fargo Securities.

馬克‧托倫特，富國證券。

I guess, first on the EBITDA bridge into '26. Any changes to your underlying assumptions for the go-forward 8th Avenue business. I think you previously called out $45 million to $50 million EBITDA annualized plus the $15 million synergies exiting the year. And then any color on contribution baked in for the [POS] business for the first quarter top line in EBITDA?

我想，首先是 EBITDA 過渡到 2026 年。對於第八大道業務的未來發展，您的基本假設是否有任何變化？我認為你之前提到過，年化 EBITDA 為 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元，加上年底的 1500 萬美元協同效應。那麼，第一季 EBITDA 中是否已包含 [POS] 業務的貢獻？

Sure. So no change to the outlook. The $45 million to $50 million is how we think about the contribution in fiscal '26 and then you have confidence in getting to a run rate and synergies by the end of the year. It's going to take some time given all that's going on there.

當然。所以前景沒有改變。我們認為 2026 財年的貢獻金額應為 4,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元，這樣我們就有信心在年底前達到正常水準並實現協同效應。鑑於那裡發生的一切，這需要一些時間。

And then in terms of the pasta business in Q4, we called out about $20 million contribution from 8th Avenue. So a little under the run rate, obviously, about half of that was Pasta. So again, we're expecting just two months of Pasta contribution this fiscal year. So two-thirds of $10 million before we close on the transaction in December.

然後，就第四季的義大利麵業務而言，我們提到第八大道貢獻了約 2000 萬美元。所以，義大利麵的銷量明顯低於平均水平，大約有一半是義大利麵。所以，我們預期本財年義大利麵業務的貢獻只有兩個月。所以，在12月完成交易之前，我們需要支付1000萬美元的三分之二。

Okay. And then just a little more on the volume trends in core grocery. Any color on progress through the quarter and how things have trended into the first quarter. Have you seen any incremental pressure that's from SNAP? And then just what's factored into your outlook for this year?

好的。接下來再簡單談談核心食品雜貨的銷售趨勢。請提供本季度進展情況以及第一季發展趨勢的任何資訊。你是否感受到來自 SNAP 的任何額外壓力？那麼，你對今年的展望都受到了哪些因素的影響呢？

Yes. So I think what we factored in is fairly conservative. Again, I think we believe there's -- we'll see some category improvement as we lap some challenges in the back half of next year, given some of our fiscal '26, I should say, given that some of the challenges we saw with [Maha] and some other things that happens in the spring, we're not calling for a category getting back to normal in the back half of the year. So some marginal improvement year-over-year is really what we have. And I think Q1 and Q2, looking a lot like what we saw in Q3 and Q4 and then seeing some improvement in Q3 and Q4 is what's baked in our guidance.

是的。所以我認為我們考慮的因素相當保守。再次，我認為我們相信——隨著我們在明年下半年克服一些挑戰，我們將看到一些品類改善。但考慮到我們2026財年的一些情況，應該說，考慮到我們在[Maha]遇到的一些挑戰以及春季發生的一些其他事情，我們並不認為該品類會在下半年恢復正常。所以，我們實際看到的只是比前一年略有進步。我認為第一季和第二季的情況與第三季和第四季非常相似，然後在第三季和第四季出現一些改善，這已經體現在我們的業績預期中了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

John Baumgartner，瑞穗證券。

I wanted to go back, Rob, to your -- some of your comments around strategy and cyclical versus structural. Over the years, Post has built this portfolio that's tilted more to value, whether it's Cereal, Pet, Food, 8th Avenue business here again. And I mean values held up well against the macro over time. So it's been prudent. But I'm curious, given the headwinds now for lower middle-income consumers, higher debt, SNAP reductions and you're seeing the consistency from the premium eggs.

羅布，我想回到你之前關於策略以及週期性與結構性問題的評論。多年來，Post 建構了一個更偏重價值的投資組合，無論是穀物、寵物、食品，或是第八大道上的商業房地產。我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，這些價值在宏觀經濟環境下保持了良好的表現。所以這樣做是明智的。但我很好奇，考慮到目前中低收入消費者面臨的不利因素，例如更高的債務、SNAP（補充營養援助計劃）的削減，而你卻看到了優質雞蛋的穩定增長。

So does it maybe warrant more initiatives in terms of addressing premium products, hiring some households. Just how do you think about that in terms of future M&A or organic innovation and the capacity to tilt the portfolio differently going forward?

所以，這是否意味著有必要採取更多措施來解決高端產品問題，並僱用一些家庭？您如何看待未來的併購或內部創新，以及未來調整投資組合的能力？

I think I would disagree that the portfolio is built around value. I think the portfolio is built around choice because if you look at each line of we are in, we have an array of price points. And that is true of eggs, cereal, potatoes. So that what we really like to do is appeal to the an array of consumers. And I think that the trends that you're -- you're raising rather than dictating the construct of the portfolio in total, really dictate the direction of innovation.

我並不認同該投資組合是以價值為核心建構的。我認為該投資組合的構建圍繞著選擇，因為如果你看我們投資的每一條產品線，你會發現我們都有一系列價格點。雞蛋、麥片、馬鈴薯也是。所以，我們真正想做的就是吸引各種不同的消費者。我認為，你提出的趨勢——而不是你主導的投資組合的整體結構——實際上決定了創新的方向。

And I think in that context, it does suggest if we have the opportunity to do so to innovate more towards higher or middle-income consumers.

我認為，從這個角度來看，這表明如果我們有機會，就應該更多地創新，以吸引高收入或中等收入消費者。

Okay. And then maybe just building on that in the Refrigerated Retail business, thinking about some of the side dishes, I think that's been an area where private label has been a little bit of a challenge the last year or 2. As we look forward now, supply chain issues have been cleared away, how do you think about investing in that business in terms of a vehicle for innovation, taking the convenience angle for consumers, expanding distribution growth. Where are your plans sort of sit for that side dishes business going forward now?

好的。然後，也許可以以此為基礎，在冷藏零售業務中，考慮一些配菜，我認為這是自有品牌在過去一兩年裡面臨的一些挑戰。展望未來，供應鏈問題已經解決，您認為投資該業務作為創新工具、為消費者提供便利、擴大分銷成長等方面有何意義？接下來，你們對配菜業務有什麼計畫？

So John, you you've got a long history with us. So we went through a period of time when we first acquired the business that it was in private label and branded. So to Rob's comment, we were participating up and down the value of that segment. different price points. Then we went through a period of time when we did not have enough capacity to meet our branded demand.

約翰，你和我們有著深深的淵源。所以，在我們最初收購這家公司的時候，有一段時間它是以自有品牌和貼牌生產為主的。所以，正如羅布所說，我們參與了該細分市場價值的上下波動，不同的價格點。後來，我們經歷了一段產能不足以滿足自有品牌需求的時期。

So we exited private label so that we could focus on the brand. In the meantime, some competitive private brand products got some traction. And we have now gotten to the point where we have our capacity better aligned to the point where we have capacity that can meet both private label and branded demand.

因此，我們退出了自有品牌業務，以便專注於品牌建立。同時，一些具有競爭力的自有品牌產品獲得了一定的市場份額。現在，我們的產能已經更好地匹配，能夠同時滿足自有品牌和品牌產品的需求。

And because of that, we're choosing to pick and choose where we go, but to go after attractive private label opportunities in that category while also maintaining the brand and continuing to invest in the brand. So the longer-term or medium-term goal in that category would be to do exactly what Rob said play at the multiple price points not to be the omnipresent party in private label, but to be the party that wins where private label is most relevant at those retailers.

正因如此，我們選擇有選擇地進入該領域，尋求有吸引力的自有品牌機會，同時保持品牌並繼續投資於品牌。因此，該類別的長期或中期目標就是像羅布所說的那樣，在多個價格點上進行博弈，而不是成為自有品牌領域無處不在的參與者，而是成為在自有品牌最相關的零售商中贏得勝利的參與者。

Carla Casella, J.P. Morgan.

卡拉‧卡塞拉，摩根大通。

You talked about a lot about the M&A as part of the strategy over the past. I'm just wondering how that environment looks today and if there are a lot of opportunities. And then also, if you're focused more on opportunities within any of your key segments? Or would you add another leg to the stool?

在過去一段時間裡，你多次談到併購是公司策略的一部分。我只是想知道現在那裡的環境如何，是否有很多機會。此外，如果您更關注任何關鍵細分市場中的機會呢？或是你會再給凳子再加一條腿嗎？

We tend to be entirely optimistic on the last part of your question. I think in order to have a successful transaction, we obviously need a counterparty. And I think with the multiples where they are today, we've seen some reluctance to transact. And again, we don't necessarily look at M&A as an objective in and of itself. We look at it as something -- an allocation of capital choice that we can use compared to buying our shares back or paying down debt?

我們對您問題的最後一部分持完全樂觀的態度。我認為，要成功完成交易，我們顯然需要一個交易對手。我認為，鑑於目前的估值倍數，我們已經看到一些投資者不願意進行交易。再次強調，我們不一定將併購本身視為目標。我們將其視為資本配置選擇，我們可以將其用於回購股票或償還債務？

Okay. And given the 8th Avenue behind you, any thoughts on coming to market to refinance some of the draw on the revolver that you use for 8th Avenue?

好的。鑑於您身後是第八大道，您有沒有考慮過進入市場，對您用於第八大道的循環信貸額度進行再融資？

Yes. So we continue to monitor, Carla. Obviously, we keep a close eye on that in the bond market, but we'll continue to look for the right pocket to do that.

是的。所以我們會繼續關注，卡拉。顯然，我們會密切關注債券市場的情況，但我們會繼續尋找合適的投資機會。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session as well as Post Holdings' fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you.

謝謝。今天的問答環節以及 Post Holdings 2025 年第四季財報電話會議和網路直播到此結束。請您暫時斷開電話，祝您有美好的一天。謝謝。