Post Holdings Inc (POST) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Post Holdings third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Post Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議及網路廣播。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel O'Rourke, Investor Relations for Post.

我現在想將電話轉給郵政投資者關係部的 Daniel O'Rourke。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Post's third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call. I'm joined this morning by Rob Vitale, our President and CEO; Jeff Zadoks, our COO; and Matt Mainer, our CFO and Treasurer. Rob, Jeff, and Matt will make prepared remarks and afterwards will answer your questions.

早安，感謝您今天參加我們的 Post 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上我們的總裁兼執行長 Rob Vitale 也加入了我的行列。 Jeff Zadoks，我們的營運長；以及我們的財務長兼財務主管馬特·邁納 (Matt Mainer)。羅布、傑夫和馬特將先做準備好的發言，然後回答您的問題。

The press release that supports these remarks is posted on both the investors and the SEC filings sections of our website and is also available on the SEC's website. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website at postholdings.com.

支持這些言論的新聞稿發佈在我們網站的投資者和 SEC 備案部分，也可在 SEC 網站上取得。謹此提醒，我們正在對此通話進行錄音，並將在我們的網站 postholdings.com 上提供音訊重播。

Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties should be carefully considered by investors, as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligations to us update these statements.

在我們繼續之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，投資者應仔細考慮，因為實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。這些前瞻性陳述截至本次電話會議之日是最新的，管理階層不承擔我們更新這些陳述的義務。

This call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website.

這次電話會議將討論某些非公認會計準則措施。有關這些非公認會計準則衡量標準與最接近的公認會計準則衡量標準的協調表，請參閱我們昨天發布並發佈在我們網站上的新聞稿。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.

這樣，我就把電話轉給羅布。

Thank you, Daniel. In Q3, we delivered another quite solid quarter that enabled us to increase our full-year guidance. While never fully satisfied, we are quite pleased with the business performance including recent acquisitions. I'm certain you noticed we have been aggressive in purchasing our own shares. This solid performance is against a challenging and transitioning consumer environment. Inflation is cooling the store and labor markets.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。在第三季度，我們又交付了一個相當穩健的季度，這使我們能夠提高全年指引。雖然我們從未完全滿意，但我們對業務表現（包括最近的收購）感到非常滿意。我確信您已經注意到我們一直在積極購買自己的股票。這種穩健的表現是針對充滿挑戰和轉型的消費者環境的。通貨膨脹正在給商店和勞動市場降溫。

Meanwhile, rapid cumulative change in pricing over the last couple of years has impacted consumer behavior across channels. We expect to work through this reference price phenomenon in both retail and food service channels over the next year. Key highlights for the quarter include strong consumption of both our branded and private label cereal products, ongoing outperformance in our pet business versus our underwriting case, significant mix improvement and value-added eggs. We expect these highlights to be sustained in FY25.

同時，過去幾年定價的快速累積變化影響了跨通路的消費者行為。我們預計明年將在零售和食品服務通路中解決這種參考價格現象。本季的主要亮點包括我們的品牌和自有品牌穀物產品的強勁消費、我們的寵物業務相對於我們的承保案例的持續表現、顯著的組合改進和增值雞蛋。我們預計這些亮點將在 2025 財年持續下去。

On the other side of the ledger, our refrigerat retail segment underperformed as trade investment cannibalized base volume without sufficient incremental lift. We are addressing appropriate level of trade spending. Looking ahead to '25, we expect a more stable consumer environment which, along with lapping '24, will support more favorable volume trends. The capital markets and the M&A market support further strategic action.

另一方面，我們的冰箱零售部門表現不佳，因為貿易投資蠶食了基本銷量，而沒有足夠的增量提升。我們正在解決適當的貿易支出水準問題。展望'25，我們預期消費環境將更加穩定，加上'24，將支持更有利的銷售趨勢。資本市場和併購市場支持進一步的策略行動。

Our leverage is at historically low levels, and we will tend to be reactive with capital allocation. Our business model and our diversification enable us to adapt to changing conditions, and we will remain clear right as we consider the best allocation of your capital.

我們的槓桿率處於歷史低位，我們傾向於對資本配置做出反應。我們的業務模式和多元化使我們能夠適應不斷變化的環境，並且在考慮您的資本的最佳配置時，我們將保持清晰的立場。

Now Jeff will provide more context on the quarter.

現在，傑夫將提供有關本季的更多背景資訊。

Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Starting with PCB, both our grocery and pet food products contributed to another strong quarter of profit performance. Within grocery, cereal volumes were challenged, although we performed better than the category as we slightly increased branded share in both dollars and pounds. Carryover pricing combined with excellent operating and supply chain performance continue to be the main profit drivers within grocery. Cereal category volume finished the quarter down 4.1%.

謝謝羅布，大家早安。從 PCB 開始，我們的雜貨和寵物食品都為另一個強勁的季度利潤表現做出了貢獻。在食品雜貨領域，穀物食品的銷售受到了挑戰，儘管我們的表現優於該類別，因為我們以美元和英鎊計算的品牌份額略有增加。結轉定價加上出色的營運和供應鏈績效仍然是食品雜貨行業的主要利潤驅動力。本季穀物類銷量下降 4.1%。

Despite not seeing an immediate recovery as we snap this quarter, we continue to expect category volumes will normalize to the historical CAGR of down approximately 1% to 2%. For the pet food business, our category share remain fairly flat in total and across our brands. Recall, however, in the last half of the prior fiscal year, our pet food sales revenues and volumes benefited from a one-time replenishment of customer inventories as we improved customer full rates from the low 70s to the low 90s. Strong manufacturing performance continued to drive our results. The closure of our Lancaster, Ohio sewer plant and our pet integration continue to remain on track with the planned exit from the Smucker's TSA in the first half of fiscal year 2025.

儘管我們本季並未看到立即復甦，但我們仍預期品類銷量將正常化至歷史複合年增長率，下降約 1% 至 2%。對於寵物食品業務，我們的類別份額總體上和我們的品牌中保持相當平穩。然而，回想一下，在上一財年的後半段，我們的寵物食品銷售收入和銷量受益於客戶庫存的一次性補充，因為我們將客戶滿率從 70 多歲提高到了 90 多歲。強勁的製造業績持續推動我們的業績。我們俄亥俄州蘭卡斯特下水道工廠的關閉和寵物整合工作繼續按計劃進行，並計劃在 2025 財年上半年退出 Smucker's TSA。

Moving to foodservice, we had a good quarter with very strong product mix. In addition, we benefited from the final run out of avian influenza pricing related to the November 2023 outbreak as well as elevated customer promotions in the quarter. Overall, egg volumes were flat despite slowing restaurant foot traffic. However, our mix continued to improve with 15% volume growth in our highest margin precooked egg products. Lastly, we continue to encounter some delays in achieving our full RTD Shake manufacturing run rates.

轉向餐飲服務，我們度過了一個良好的季度，產品組合非常強大。此外，我們還受益於與 2023 年 11 月爆發相關的禽流感定價的最終結束以及本季度客戶促銷活動的增加。總體而言，儘管餐廳客流量放緩，但雞蛋銷量持平。然而，我們的產品組合持續改善，利潤率最高的預煮蛋產品銷量成長了 15%。最後，我們在實現完整的 RTD Shake 製造運行率方面仍然遇到一些延遲。

The ramp-up has been slower than we anticipated, but we made significant progress during the quarter. Recognizing that it is hard to track the impact of avian influenza quarter to quarter. We will share that our expectation for foodservice adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter is approximately $100 million.

成長速度比我們預期的要慢，但我們在本季取得了重大進展。認識到很難逐季度追蹤禽流感的影響。我們將分享我們對第四季度餐飲服務調整後 EBITDA 的預期約為 1 億美元。

Our refrigerated retail business had a significant pullback in profitability. While we were encouraged to see dinner and breakfast sides volumes up 4% and 6% respectively, this growth came was significantly higher-than-expected freight cost. We are recalibrating these investments and anticipate sequential segment profit improvement in the fourth quarter.

我們的冷藏零售業務獲利能力大幅下滑。雖然我們很高興看到晚餐和早餐的銷量分別增加了 4% 和 6%，但這種增長明顯高於預期的運費。我們正在重新調整這些投資，並預計第四季的部門利潤將持續改善。

From a commodity standpoint, sale prices were significant headwind versus prior year, further pressure in Q3 adjusted EBITDA for the segment. On the positive side, we continue to see strong manufacturing and cost management performance across the network.

從大宗商品的角度來看，銷售價格與去年同期相比存在顯著的逆風，該部門第三季調整後的 EBITDA 面臨進一步壓力。從積極的一面來看，我們繼續看到整個網路的製造和成本管理表現強勁。

Turning to Weetabix, UK cereal category volumes moderated to a decline of 1%, and we saw flat volumes within our branded and private label biscuits. Continued improvement with supply chain and service levels, combined with incremental pricing on some private label products drove sequential margin improvement from Q2. In addition, the business successfully completed Phase 1 of its ERP conversion and is on track for the second larger Phase 2 in the fall.

談到維他麥，英國穀類銷量下降了 1%，我們的品牌和自有品牌餅乾銷量持平。供應鏈和服務水準的持續改善，加上一些自有品牌產品的增量定價，推動了第二季利潤率的環比改善。此外，該企業還成功完成了 ERP 轉換的第一階段，並預計在秋季進行第二個更大的第二階段。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt.

這樣，我會將電話轉給馬特。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning. Third-quarter consolidated net sales were $1.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $350 million. Net sales increased 5% driven by recent acquisitions. Excluding acquisitions, sales declined 5% driven by lower overall volumes in our retail businesses and the impact of foodservice pricing of our foodservice pricing pass-through model. Supply chain performance and fill rates remained strong, while commodity inflation on balance was neutral.

謝謝，傑夫，早安。第三季合併淨銷售額為 19 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.5 億美元。在近期收購的推動下，淨銷售額成長了 5%。不包括收購在內，由於我們的零售業務總量下降以及我們的餐飲服務定價傳遞模型的餐飲服務定價的影響，銷售額下降了 5%。供應鍊錶現和填充率依然強勁，而大宗商品通膨整體呈現中性。

Finally, SG&A increased as we continued targeted marketing investments in our retail businesses. Excluding the benefit of pet food acquisitions from both the current and prior-year quarters, Post consumer brands' net sales decreased 3% and volumes decreased 6%.

最後，隨著我們繼續對零售業務進行有針對性的行銷投資，SG&A 有所增加。剔除本季和去年同期寵物食品收購的好處，後消費品牌的淨銷售額下降了 3%，銷售量下降了 6%。

Average net pricing, excluding pet food, increased 3%. Volumes declined primarily in nonretail and branded cereal. Segment-adjusted EBITDA increased 28% versus prior year as we benefited from the strong contribution of pet food and improved grocery performance.

平均淨價格（不含寵物食品）增加了 3%。銷量下降主要是非零售和品牌穀物食品。由於寵物食品的強勁貢獻和雜貨業績的改善，我們受益於寵物食品的強勁貢獻，經部門調整的 EBITDA 比上年增長了 28%。

Weetabix net sales increased 1% year over year. Sales benefited from the [D side] acquisition and a nominal foreign currency tailwind of 80 basis points from a stronger British pound. On a currency and acquisition neutral basis, net sales decreased 5% and volumes decreased 6%, driven by a decline in non-biscuit products.

維他麥淨銷售額年增 1%。銷售受益於[D方]收購以及英鎊走強帶來的80個基點的名義外幣順風。在貨幣和收購中性的基礎上，由於非餅乾產品的下降，淨銷售額下降了 5%，銷量下降了 6%。

Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 24% versus prior year led by the easing of commodity pressures and improved manufacturing leverage as we built inventory in the quarter ahead of our ERP go-live. Foodservice net sales decreased 5%, while volumes increased 2%. Revenue reflects the pass-through of lower grain costs and a net reduction in pricing due to the wind down of avian influenza price setters from last year. Volumes reflect increases in both egg products and potato products.

由於大宗商品壓力的緩解以及我們在 ERP 上線前的本季度建立庫存而提高了製造槓桿，部門調整後 EBITDA 較上年增長了 24%。餐飲服務淨銷售額下降 5%，而銷量則成長 2%。收入反映了穀物成本下降的傳導以及由於去年禽流感價格製定者的退出而導致的定價淨下降。銷量反映了蛋製品和馬鈴薯製品的成長。

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 17% as we lap the benefit of egg market imbalances and elevated avian influenza price setters in the prior year. These headwinds were partially offset by a favorable mix shift to higher margin precooked eggs. Refrigerated retail net sales decreased 7%, while volumes were flat. Average net prices declined as a result of increased trade in the portfolio primarily for dinner sides. Favorable side dish volumes were offset by distribution losses in egg products. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 37%, reflecting lower net pricing and a significantly higher sell costs compared to prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 下降了 17%，因為我們忽略了上一年雞蛋市場失衡和禽流感價格製定者上漲的好處。這些不利因素被有利的混合轉向更高利潤的預煮雞蛋所部分抵消。冷藏零售淨銷售額下降 7%，但銷量持平。由於主要為晚餐配菜的投資組合貿易增加，平均淨價格下降。有利的配菜銷售量被蛋製品的分銷損失所抵消。部門調整後 EBITDA 下降 37%，反映出與前一年相比淨定價較低且銷售成本顯著較高。

Turning to cash flow. In the third quarter, we generated $272 million from operations driven by strong profit performance and sequential improvements to working capital. Capital expenditures in the quarter were approximately $110 million, driven by continued investments in pet food capacity and the expansion of our Norwalk, Iowa precooked egg facility.

轉向現金流。在強勁的利潤表現和營運資本的連續改善的推動下，第三季我們的營運收入為 2.72 億美元。本季的資本支出約為 1.1 億美元，主要得益於對寵物食品產能的持續投資以及愛荷華州諾沃克預煮雞蛋工廠的擴建。

For the last 12 months, cash flow from operations was $966 million, and capital expenditures were $391 million, netting to $575 million of free cash flow. Given the strong cash flow, we maintained our net leverage at 4.3 times in the quarter while repurchasing 2 million shares at an average price of approximately $104 per share.

過去 12 個月，營運現金流為 9.66 億美元，資本支出為 3.91 億美元，自由現金流淨額為 5.75 億美元。鑑於強勁的現金流，我們將本季的淨槓桿率維持在 4.3 倍，同時以每股約 104 美元的平均價格回購了 200 萬股股票。

In the month of July, we repurchased an additional 300,000 shares at an average price of approximately $105 per share. In addition, our Board approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization that begins next week.

7 月份，我們以每股約 105 美元的平均價格額外回購了 30 萬股。此外，我們的董事會還批准了一項新的 5 億美元股票回購授權，該授權將於下週開始實施。

Finally, given the strong performance in the quarter, we again raised our guidance to a new range of $13.70 to $13.90. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

最後，鑑於本季度的強勁表現，我們再次將指導區間上調至 13.70 美元至 13.90 美元。這樣，我會將電話轉給接線生進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Andrew Lazar，巴克萊銀行。

On foodservice, I'm curious, you spoke to the ongoing run rate in EBITDA in that segment, I think, last quarter of around $95 million but sort of acknowledge that it has kind of been running above that but didn't change it at that point. I'm curious where you see the ongoing run rate for foodservice EBITDA now?

在餐飲服務方面，我很好奇，您談到了該領域 EBITDA 的持續運行率，我認為上個季度約為 9500 萬美元，但有點承認它一直在高於該水平，但並沒有改變它那一點。我很好奇您現在在哪裡看到餐飲服務 EBITDA 的持續運作率？

And partly, I ask that because as we think ahead to fiscal '25, trying to get a sense of whether that could be a year-over-year headwind, right, lapping what was a strong year in foodservice next year? Or if you think the ongoing run rate is somewhat higher or more consistent with what we've seen this year?

我這麼問的部分原因是，當我們展望 25 財年時，試圖了解這是否會成為同比逆風，對吧，超越明年餐飲服務業的強勁表現？或者，您認為當前的運行率比我們今年看到的要高一些或更一致？

Sure. Andrew, we think the run rate is around $105 million. And again, the difference between that and the $100 million is pressure we're going to see in Q4 related to avian influenza costs we're going to incur ahead of pricing kicking in.

當然。安德魯，我們認為運行費用約為 1.05 億美元。再說一遍，這與 1 億美元之間的差異是我們將在第四季度看到的與禽流感成本相關的壓力，我們將在定價開始之前承擔這一壓力。

Yeah. Got it. And then in measured channel data for Pet, which certainly does not tell the whole story, it looked like consumption decelerated pretty meaningfully on a sequential basis in the quarter. And I guess I'm trying to get a sense of whether something changed in terms of maybe not seeing as much trade down to mainstream in Pet as you had been seeing. And if the planned reinvestment has started to kick in yet or if that's still to come?

是的。知道了。然後，在寵物的測量通路數據中，這當然不能說明全部情況，看起來本季的消費量較上季大幅下降。我想我正在嘗試了解是否發生了一些變化，因為也許沒有像您所看到的那樣看到寵物行業向主流市場的轉變。計劃中的再投資是否已開始實施，或者是否仍將實施？

Andrew, really two drivers there. One is actually seasonality in the pet food category, so you do see a pullback between Q2 and Q3 year over year. The other piece for us, though, specifically was we had new distribution gains in Q2. So there was a pipeline fill in particular for 9Lives. So those are the two components of the sequential decline. Other than that, we're in line with where we'd expect to be.

安德魯，那裡確實有兩個司機。其中一個實際上是寵物食品類別的季節性，因此您確實會看到第二季和第三季之間同比有所回落。不過，對我們來說，另一件事是我們在第二季度獲得了新的分銷收益。所以有一個專門針對 9Lives 的管道填充。這些是連續下降的兩個組成部分。除此之外，我們的情況符合我們的預期。

Got it. And lastly, just last quarter, I think, Rob, you mentioned having seen a meaningful increase in the M&A pipeline. You mentioned private equity-owned assets have aged and such. And trying to get a sense, obviously, your leverage is now lower than it has been in a while, and you've been taking advantage of that around share repo. But any change to that M&A landscape one way or the other that you've seen since last quarter?

知道了。最後，就在上個季度，羅布，您提到了併購通路的顯著成長。您提到私募股權擁有的資產已經老化等。顯然，你的槓桿率現在低於一段時間以來的水平，並且你一直在利用股票回購的優勢。但自上季以來，您看到併購格局有任何變化嗎？

If anything, it has accelerated in terms of the amount of opportunities we've been considering. Obviously, we take our time in considering those, and the pipeline may take a long time to mature to a deal, but the market feels very active right now.

如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們一直在考慮的機會數量增加。顯然，我們需要花時間考慮這些問題，而且管道可能需要很長時間才能成熟，但目前市場感覺非常活躍。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

大衛·帕爾默，Evercore ISI。

I'm just going to continue on that line of questioning about how you're feeling heading into fiscal '25. I'm wondering how you're feeling about pet synergies, productivity, visibility? Anything that gives you dry powder for what seems to be a starting point where you're going to want to stabilize volume -- Post consumer brand volume is down 6%.

我將繼續詢問您進入 25 財年的感受。我想知道您對寵物協同效應、生產力、可見性有何看法？任何給你乾粉的事情似乎都是你想要穩定銷售的起點——消費後品牌銷售下降了 6%。

I would imagine that you'll want to dial up promotion spending to address that, so I'm just thinking about things that could be incremental. You mentioned the TSA sunsetting with Smucker. Any thoughts about how the gives and takes for '25 would be helpful.

我想你會想​​要增加促銷支出來解決這個問題，所以我只是考慮一些可以增量的事情。您提到了 TSA 與 Smucker 的合作。任何有關 25 年如何給予和索取的想法都會有所幫助。

Yeah. So on the cereal side, obviously we've got the Lancaster closing that's on track to be a contribution to the positive. Obviously, that's rightsizing some capacity or overcapacity we have now. And then, I would say, beyond that, in Post consumer brands, just your comment about down 6%, there were a couple of factors in the quarter around cereal volumes. We were really in line with the category.

是的。因此，在穀物方面，顯然我們已經完成了蘭開斯特的收盤，這有望為積極的貢獻做出貢獻。顯然，這是對我們現在擁有的一些產能或過剩產能進行調整。然後，我想說，除此之外，在後消費品牌中，僅您關於下降 6% 的評論，本季度有幾個與穀物銷量有關的因素。我們確實符合這個類別。

Beyond that, we saw a discontinuation on our side with some SKU rationalization in Canada, and then also, we've seen just a general pullback in KCCO or government volumes in terms of bid business across the board, but those are really the two outliers relative to category performance and our own.

除此之外，我們看到加拿大的一些 SKU 合理化導致我們方面的停產，此外，我們還看到 KCCO 或政府的投標業務量全面回落，但這確實是兩個異常值相對於類別表現和我們自己的表現。

But I would say Lancaster -- the positive to offset some of what you talked about in potential volume pressures.

但我想說的是蘭開斯特——積極的一面可以抵消你所談到的潛在的銷售壓力。

Any -- do you want to give us an estimate of what that could mean to EBITDA and the timing of that in fiscal '25?

您想給我們一個估計，說明這對 EBITDA 意味著什麼，以及 25 財年實現這一目標的時間表嗎？

We talked about Lancaster as being a $25 million contribution for the full year, and we're on track to be there. So again, to your point, there's volume pressures, if they persist, could be promotional, although we're pretty rational in terms of our promotional outlook.

我們談到蘭卡斯特全年將貢獻 2500 萬美元，我們也有望實現這一目標。因此，就您的觀點而言，銷售壓力如果持續存在，可能會受到促銷影響，儘管我們對促銷前景相當理性。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

肯‧戈德曼，摩根大通。

Two quick ones to start, if I may. One, I didn't quite hear you on the TSA timing. Is that shifting the exit into 2025 now? I think it was previously scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year. Please correct me if that's not right. And then I also was hoping for an update on the timing of the Michael plant. I wasn't sure if we had heard that.

如果可以的話，有兩個快速開始。第一，我沒聽清楚你說的 TSA 時間安排。現在是否會將退出時間延後到 2025 年？我認為之前預定的是今年第四季。如果不正確，請糾正我。然後我還希望能了解邁克爾工廠的最新建設時間。我不確定我們是否聽說過。

So the TSA with Smucker, there's no change in the timing. There's a part of the co-pack arrangement that lingers into the first part of fiscal '25. But we're on target to exit the back-office TSA at the end of our fiscal year. And then the question about foodservice, could you say that again?

TSA 與 Smucker 的時間安排沒有改變。聯合包裝安排的一部分一直持續到 25 財年的第一部分。但我們的目標是在本財年結束時退出後台 TSA。然後是關於餐飲服務的問題，你能再說一次嗎？

I just didn't understand if there was any change in the guidance on the timing of the Michael plant opening?

我只是不明白關於邁克爾工廠開業時間的指導是否有任何變化？

No, we didn't -- our prepared remarks didn't comment about that, but the timing of Norwalk, if that's what you're talking about, the expansion of --

不，我們沒有——我們準備好的演講沒有對此發表評論，但是諾沃克的時機，如果這就是你所說的，那麼諾沃克的擴張--

He's talking about the protein shakes.

他正在談論蛋白質奶昔。

I'm not saying it clearly, but yes. Thank you.

我沒有說清楚，但是的。謝謝。

Yeah. No, the plant is open. It's just our ramp-up has been slower than we expected. So I guess the way to put it is, yes, the profitability from that or expected profitability from that has been delayed beyond what we had previously communicated.

是的。不，工廠是開放的。只是我們的成長速度比我們預期的要慢。所以我想可以這麼說，是的，由此產生的盈利能力或由此產生的預期盈利能力已經延遲到超出了我們之前溝通的範圍。

And then one more, if I can, just on SG&A. Broadly, over the last 12 months, your SG&A has grown much more rapidly than your sales. And I know you've talked about increasing marketing. But it brings now your SG&A as a percentage of sales over the last 12 months back up to the kind of range it was for many years around that kind of mid-18% until it did the last couple of years.

如果可以的話，還有一個關於銷售、管理及行政費用的問題。總體而言，在過去 12 個月中，您的 SG&A 成長速度遠遠快於銷售額的成長速度。我知道您談到了加強行銷。但它現在使過去 12 個月的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比回到了多年來的範圍，即過去幾年之前的 18% 左右。

I'm just curious, is it fair to kind of think about this percentage is a good number to model ahead, understanding will never stay exactly there? Are there reasons to kind of think that SG&A dollars will continue to rise at a meaningfully faster pace than revenue.

我只是很好奇，認為這個百分比是一個很好的提前建模數字是否公平，理解永遠不會完全停留在那裡？是否有理由認為 SG&A 美元將繼續以明顯快於營收的速度成長？

Yeah. I think a couple of things. You mentioned A&C. We definitely have some targeted additional investments there. that we may recalibrate. Also, given the overperformance in the portfolio, there's some definitely some elevated stip or bonus within some of our segments as well that would reset next year.

是的。我認為有幾件事。你提到了A&C。我們肯定在那裡有一些有針對性的額外投資。以便我們重新校準。此外，考慮到投資組合的超額表現，我們的某些細分市場中肯定會有一些較高的小費或獎金，這些獎金或獎金將在明年重置。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯，史蒂菲爾。

I wanted to go back to the foodservice business. You have the expanded capacity coming online at Norwalk. Could you remind us when opacity comes online and your visibility in the pipeline of filling that capacity and what it could mean for further distribution opportunities?

我想回到餐飲服務業。諾沃克的產能已擴大。您能否提醒我們何時出現不透明性以及您在填補該容量的管道中的可見性以及這對進一步的分銷機會意味著什麼？

Yeah. We still have another year of construction or so on Norwalk. So that would really be fiscal '26 when that would come online, and then there'll be a ramp period that's typically could be as long as 12 months in terms of filling that plant.

是的。諾沃克還有一年左右的建設時間。因此，真正要到 26 財年才會上線，然後會有一個通常長達 12 個月的過渡期來填充工廠。

If we could move to the refrigerated retail business, you invested in some promotional activity to bring consumers back into -- or to induce trial and get consumers to trade back up into your brands. Can you talk about the -- why the lift wasn't as strong as you had anticipated? And where you go from here to improve your volume trajectory?

如果我們可以轉向冷藏零售業務，您就投資了一些促銷活動來吸引消費者回歸，或誘導試用並讓消費者重新購買您的品牌。您能談談為什麼升力沒有您預期的那麼強嗎？接下來您將如何改善您的交易量軌跡？

Sure. So again, as we mentioned, we're recalibrating that. Honestly, we overshot. There's a bit of a look back on that as well, kind of a six-month tail. So some of those is Q2 related as well. But we get the full tally of the spend there. We just didn't see the lift in Q2 and Q3 to support the amount we spent in terms of promo.

當然。正如我們所提到的，我們正在重新調整這一點。老實說，我們超出了。還有一些回顧，有點像六個月的尾巴。所以其中一些也與第二季相關。但我們得到了那裡支出的完整統計。我們只是沒有看到第二季和第三季的提升來支持我們在促銷方面的支出。

Again, we're recalibrating that. But what happened essentially is, this quarter as an example, was a 4% increase in sides. I think to support that level of spend, we would have expected something north of 10. And instead, we subsidized some base sales that were on promotion, which deteriorated profitability.

我們正在重新調整這一點。但本質上發生的情況是，以本季為例，邊數增加了 4%。我認為，為了支持這一水準的支出，我們預計會達到 10 以上。相反，我們對一些正在進行促銷的基礎銷售提供補貼，這降低了盈利能力。

And you mentioned a longer look back period for those promotional events. Are you able to recalibrate that fairly quickly? Or does that take a couple of quarters to pull planned promotions out of the market?

您提到了這些促銷活動的較長回顧期。你能很快地重新校準嗎？或者是否需要幾個季度才能將計劃中的促銷活動撤出市場？

Yeah, we are. I mean, I think with the knowledge of that. Again, I think as a reminder, just as a comparison to cereal, I think, is a good analogy as cereal is a very mature category with a lot of history behind promotions. As a reminder, we haven't been able to promote in refrigerated retail, a much different category than cereal.

是的，我們是。我的意思是，我在了解這一點的情況下思考。再次，我想提醒一下，我認為，與穀類食品的比較是一個很好的類比，因為穀類食品是一個非常成熟的類別，在促銷背後有很多歷史。提醒一下，我們無法在冷藏零售領域進行推廣，這是一個與穀物食品截然不同的類別。

We just don't have that history, so definitely underestimated the level of promotional activity that happened. But we have recalibrated the accrual and our expectations in the quarter. So we feel like we have a ring-fenced and adjusting that going forward. So we feel like we've got a good handle on it.

我們只是沒有這樣的歷史，所以肯定低估了所發生的促銷活動的水平。但我們重新調整了本季的應計項目和預期。因此，我們覺得我們已經有了一個圍欄，並且正在不斷調整。所以我們覺得我們已經很好地處理了這個問題。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可萊弗里、派珀桑德勒。

You mentioned how branded cereal is outperforming private label, but we keep you also hearing so much about how the consumer is stretched. How do you maybe just reconcile the cereal dynamics?

您提到品牌麥片如何優於自有品牌，但我們也讓您聽到很多關於消費者如何捉襟見肘的消息。您如何協調穀物動態？

And I think you also said you expect a little bit more stable. The consumer to be in maybe stable at least or a little bit better place in fiscal '25 is little bit of read-through from cereal or -- how do we think about where the consumer is there?

我想你也說過你期望更穩定一點。在 25 財年，消費者可能處於至少穩定或更好的位置，這需要對穀物食品進行一點解讀，或者——我們如何考慮消費者的位置？

Let me start with the initial comment. Private label outperformed branded in the quarter.

讓我從最初的評論開始。本季自有品牌的表現優於品牌。

Sorry. Okay. I misheard that.

對不起。好的。我聽錯了。

And I think the comment around the consumer behavior going forward is more about the acceptance of the pricing environment that has moved so rapidly, and it has taken some time to grow accustomed to. So it feels like -- we intentionally use the word that the consumer is in a transitional mode in that we are now going from a super-hot labor market to a cooling labor market, cooling inflation.

我認為，圍繞未來消費者行為的評論更多的是關於對變化如此之快的定價環境的接受程度，並且需要一些時間來適應。所以感覺就像——我們有意使用消費者正處於過渡模式這個詞，因為我們現在正從超熱的勞動市場轉向冷卻的勞動市場，冷卻通貨膨脹。

So I think that it should be generally constructive for volumes to get past the reference price adjustment, and it should be constructive for more value products as we see a bit of a cooling in the labor markets. So we tend to think that the consumer environment will be more constructive next year on balance, but there's certainly some puts and takes.

因此，我認為，總體上來說，透過參考價格調整對銷售應該是有建設性的，對於更有價值的產品也應該是有建設性的，因為我們看到勞動力市場有所降溫。因此，我們傾向於認為，總體而言，明年的消費者環境將更具建設性，但肯定會有一些變化。

And would you characterize that as likely across all your categories? Or do you have somewhere you would call out maybe more likely to see extended pressure?

您是否認為在您的所有類別中都可能存在這種情況？還是你認為某個地方更有可能承受更大的壓力？

Certainly, in cereal, given its maturity, we continue to believe within the Bob Evans brand. There are opportunities to do considerably better. Again, as Matt mentioned, we let our trade skills get a bit rusty having been through a period of which we didn't really try to create demand.

當然，在穀物食品領域，鑑於其成熟度，我們仍然相信鮑勃·埃文斯品牌。有機會做得更好。正如馬特所提到的，我們的貿易技能在經歷了一段沒有真正嘗試創造需求的時期後變得有些生疏。

Value-added eggs continues to outperform the overall volume trends broadly across food, both away from home and in home. So I think the comments would be most applicable to cereal with varying degrees of application to the other categories.

無論是在家還是在外，增值雞蛋的表現持續優於食品中的整體銷售趨勢。因此，我認為這些評論最適用於穀物食品，對其他類別也有不同程度的適用。

That's helpful. And just on Pet, can you give an update on kind of the spending trajectory and how to think about just timing and where that's directed in terms of kind of which brands and how that's playing out?

這很有幫助。就寵物而言，您能否介紹一下消費軌跡的最新情況，以及如何考慮時機以及在哪些品牌方面的方向以及效果如何？

And when you say spending trajectory, you mean incremental investment in things like advertising?

當你說支出軌跡時，你指的是廣告等方面的增量投資嗎？

Exactly, yeah.

沒錯，是的。

It's mostly around our more premium brands that are larger. So I don't want to get into details around particular cadence and spend. But I mean, you can look at the portfolio and into it where we would choose to invest.

主要是圍繞著我們規模更大的更優質品牌。所以我不想詳細討論特定的節奏和支出。但我的意思是，你可以看看投資組合，看看我們選擇投資的地方。

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

約翰·鮑姆加特納，瑞穗證券。

Maybe first off, coming back to refrigerated retail and the trade promo, just to clarify on that, if I remember correctly last quarter, I think there were some customer-funded promotions that I think seem promising in terms of the consumer response. And you mentioned the dust is still settling here on Q3, but were there any material changes in terms of type of outlet type of program or an even geography telative to the customer-funded approach in Q2?

也許首先，回到冷藏零售和貿易促銷，只是為了澄清這一點，如果我沒記錯的話，上個季度，我認為有一些客戶資助的促銷活動，我認為就消費者的反應而言，這些促銷似乎很有希望。您提到第三季的塵埃仍在塵埃落定，但是在專案類型或與第二季客戶資助方法相關的地理位置方面是否有任何重大變化？

No. I mean the comment on customer was really around Q1, and that was during the holiday season. So that would be maybe the different dynamic is that's the peak season where we're seeing really good volumes and then a little bit of seasonality in Q2, and then there is no seasonality benefit in Q3.

不。我的意思是，對客戶的評論實際上是在第一季左右，那是在假期期間。因此，這可能是不同的動態，即在旺季，我們看到銷量非常好，然後在第二季度有一點季節性，然後在第三季度沒有季節性優勢。

But I would say that's really the difference, which is Q1 is a very, very strong quarter.

但我想說，這確實是區別，第一季是一個非常非常強勁的季度。

And then, Rob, I want come back to foodservice and the volume growth there. Are there certain segments within away from home where your distribution growth is skewing in particular. And then for your existing business, the exposure to breakfast, are you seeing any sort of shift within that daypart where precooked eggs are particularly resilient or there's more trading down to less expensive items?

然後，羅布，我想回到餐飲服務和那裡的銷售成長。在遠離家鄉的某些細分市場中，您的分銷成長是否特別傾斜？然後，對於您現有的業務，即早餐的接觸，您是否看到在該時段內有任何形式的變化，即預煮雞蛋特別有彈性，或者有更多的商品轉向更便宜的食品？

You mentioned eggs are outperforming, but I'm not sure if that's just due to a smaller base effect relative to other offerings that are out there. Maybe it's too granular, but just curious if you have any observations on sell-through more broadly at retail.

您提到雞蛋表現出色，但我不確定這是否只是由於相對於其他產品的基數效應較小。也許它太細粒度了，但只是好奇您是否對更廣泛的零售業銷售有任何觀察。

Yeah. The precooked business, which is the highest value add and highest-margin business, is continuing to perform very well, in fact, grew 50% volumetrically over the quarter. We are seeing changes in some of the foot traffic patterns across restaurants and QSRs, which I'm sure you've seen reported by some of the larger ones that have been within the last couple of weeks.

是的。預煮業務是附加價值最高、利潤率最高的業務，繼續表現良好，事實上，本季銷量成長了 50%。我們看到餐廳和快餐店的一些客流量模式發生了變化，我相信您已經看到過去幾週內一些較大的餐廳的報告。

So there is some offset in terms of where that business could be going. But the value proposition of that particular product is such that it's a great way to take labor out of back-of-house operations, and we think it will continue a long-term trend irrespective of the short-term vagaries of some of the foot traffic issues.

因此，該業務的發展方向存在一些抵消。但該特定產品的價值主張是，它是一種將勞動力從後台操作中解放出來的好方法，我們認為，無論某些腳部的短期變化如何，它將繼續保持長期趨勢。

Rob Dickerson, Jefferies.

羅布·迪克森，杰弗里斯。

Rob, just around the commodity complex as you kind of think through next year, are there any potential kind of offsetting benefits maybe in some of the more grain-based categories in which you play that could help support profitability kind of despite some less volume pressure that work to correct immediately on top of, let's say, from the rightsizing of capacity?

羅布，就你明年的大宗商品綜合體而言，在你所從事的一些以穀物為主的類別中，是否存在任何潛在的抵消收益，儘管銷量壓力較小，但可能有助於支持盈利能力比方說，在容量調整的基礎上立即進行修正的工作？

As we look at it right now, there's fairly balanced benefits, as you mentioned, from grains, but then there's some offsetting inflationary items such as packaging and sugar as a couple of examples. So I don't think we see it as a huge benefit. At the same time, we're not currently expecting it to be a huge detriment either. So fairly balanced as we head into the next fiscal year.

正如我們現在所看到的，正如您所提到的，穀物帶來的好處相當平衡，但還有一些抵消通貨膨脹的物品，例如包裝和糖等。所以我認為我們並不認為這是一個巨大的優勢。同時，我們目前也不認為它會造成巨大的損害。當我們進入下一個財政年度時，情況相當平衡。

All right, cool. And then just quickly on Weetabix. You called out in the release and comments just a margin uptick off of some, I guess, pricing, it sounds like maybe part of that portfolio, the margin uptick was impressive, right, on a sequential, but then also on a year-over-year basis.

好吧，酷。然後很快就可以吃維他麥了。您在新聞稿和評論中指出，我猜，定價中的一些利潤率有所上升，這聽起來可能是該投資組合的一部分，利潤率的上升令人印象深刻，對吧，連續的，但隨後也是一年多的年為基礎。

And I'm just curious, again, as we think through, let's say, Q4 next year, is that step up like somewhat sustained? Like is that kind of more of a kind of a new margin kind of base for that business? Or could there be some other flow-through impacts that would kind of bring that back down?

我再次好奇，當我們思考明年第四季時，這項進步是否會持續？就像這更像是該業務的一種新的利潤基礎嗎？或者是否存在其他一些流通影響會導致這種情況回落？

Yeah. A couple of things. As Matt said in his prepared remarks, there is a benefit this quarter because of inventory build. So we have an ERP conversion that is going to hit at the beginning of next fiscal year. And in preparation for that, we're building inventory to manage through any bumps in the road that might occur.

是的。有幾件事。正如馬特在他準備好的演講中所說，由於庫存增加，本季帶來了好處。因此，我們將在下一財年初進行 ERP 轉換。為此，我們正在建立庫存，以應對可能出現的任何障礙。

And because of that, we had an absorption benefit in the third quarter that you wouldn't expect on an ongoing basis. With that said, we certainly expect that Q2 and Q1 of this year were more of the trough and that our expectation is that we'll begin migrating towards the more historical margin profile of that business.

正因為如此，我們在第三季獲得了您無法持續預期的吸收效益。話雖如此，我們當然預計今年第二季和第一季將更多地處於低谷，我們的預期是我們將開始轉向該業務更具歷史意義的利潤率狀況。

But to be fair, Q3 was a step up. That's more step than we would expect on the trajectory that we eventually get to. So maybe a clear way to say expect a little bit of a step down, but still the trend line will be better than where it was at the beginning of this fiscal year.

但公平地說，第三季是一個進步。這比我們最終達到的軌跡所預期的要多。因此，也許一個明確的說法是預計會出現一點下降，但趨勢線仍然會比本財年年初的情況更好。

Marc Torrente, Wells Fargo Securities.

馬克‧托倫特，富國銀行證券公司。

First on Pet, you talked through some of the drivers of the sequential slowdown in sales from Q2. Just doing some simple math implies some further expansion on margins even as you're stepping up advertising around the premium brands. So maybe just a little more color on the margin progress there.

首先，關於寵物，您談到了第二季銷售連續放緩的一些驅動因素。即使您正在加強圍繞優質品牌的廣告，只要做一些簡單的數學計算就意味著利潤率會進一步擴大。因此，也許只是在邊緣上增加一點顏色。

Yeah. So I mean, I think a lot of our margin progress has been more around just the flow-through of the manufacturing efficiencies that we've had and the stabilization there is the bigger driver. We've taken some of those dollars and reinvested behind the brands and ramped A&C, but manufacturing performance and costs are really the keys for the margin improvement.

是的。所以我的意思是，我認為我們的許多利潤率進步更多地圍繞著我們所擁有的製造效率的流動，而那裡的穩定性是更大的驅動力。我們已經拿走了其中的一些資金並重新投資於品牌並增加了 A&C，但製造性能和成本確實是利潤改善的關鍵。

And then CapEx stepped up this year with egg and pet investments as well as the shake manufacturing ramp. How much of these projects carry into next year? You spoke to egg facility timings. Just any context there and how we should think about CapEx levels for '25, I guess, thinking through free cash flow conversion ahead.

今年資本支出也隨之增加，包括雞蛋和寵物投資以及奶昔生產。這些項目中有多少會延續到明年？您談到了雞蛋設施的時間安排。我猜想，這裡有任何背景，以及我們應該如何考慮 25 年的資本支出水平，並考慮未來的自由現金流轉換。

Yes. These are definitely multiyear projects, certainly Norwalk and Bloomfield. And I think the way we've talked about it is we expect '25 to be very similar to '24 in terms of the CapEx range we have and spend.

是的。這些絕對是多年項目，尤其是諾沃克和布魯姆菲爾德。我認為我們討論的方式是，我們預期 25 年的資本支出範圍與 24 年的資本支出範圍非常相似。

And. Mr. Torrente, did this answer your questions?

和。Torrente 先生，這回答了您的問題嗎？

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Carla Casella, JP Morgan.

卡拉‧卡塞拉，摩根大通。

A couple of follow-ups. Just you talked about the environment, both in foodservice and retail, but is your expectation that we should see trade spending pick up as we go into the back half of this year, and is it consistent across category, are you seeing more need for trade spend in one versus another?

一些後續行動。剛才您談到了食品服務和零售領域的環境，但您預計今年下半年我們應該會看到貿易支出有所回升，各個類別的情況是否一致，您是否看到了更多的貿易需求花在一項與另一項上？

And then I have one question on M&A.

然後我有一個關於併購的問題。

I think we will likely see a little bit of an uptick in trade spend, but it will be targeted and not nature reactive. I think the best example being the way we spent in our Bob Evans brand, we need to make sure we get the lift that is intended with the trade spend.

我認為我們可能會看到貿易支出略有上升，但這將是有針對性的，而不是自然反應。我認為最好的例子是我們在鮑勃埃文斯品牌上的支出方式，我們需要確保我們獲得預期的貿易支出提升。

And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

抱歉，您的其他問題是什麼？

Well, I wonder, is it more targeted in one category versus one category more exposed?

好吧，我想知道，它是在某一類別中更有針對性，還是在某一類別中更暴露？

No, we'll -- where we are pricing opportunities to benefit from Tracepoint across the portfolio will execute there. As we go in the primary focus is on potatoes, side dishes.

不，我們會——我們定價的機會將在整個投資組合中從 Tracepoint 中受益。我們主要關注的是馬鈴薯和配菜。

Okay. And then the other question was on the M&A environment. If you could just talk to the deal flow and if there needs -- if the opportunities are getting more interesting or levels coming into more fair in the past, you just talked about irrational type levels of -- for the sellers.

好的。另一個問題是關於併購環境。如果你能談談交易流程，如果有需求——如果機會變得更有趣，或者過去的水平變得更公平，你剛才談到了賣家的非理性類型水平。

Yeah. I'm sorry, Carla, you're a bit echoing, so I'm not sure I got all of the question, but I'll do my best. I think we've seen a period of time in which there have been lower than average PE exits. So we're seeing more opportunities from PE owners of consumer assets. We always are of the opinion that corporate owners should do portfolio pruning, so there are some opportunities in that area.

是的。抱歉，卡拉，你有點重複，所以我不確定我是否回答了所有問題，但我會盡力而為。我認為我們已經看到一段時期私募股權退出率低於平均水平。因此，我們從消費資產的私募股權所有者那裡看到了更多的機會。我們始終認為企業所有者應該進行投資組合修剪，因此該領域存在一些機會。

So I would say, same thing I said in my prior comments, that the quantum of opportunities has increased significantly year over year and even sequentially. That doesn't mean anything will happen because we want to be very disciplined with respect to how we allocate capital.

所以我想說，就像我在之前的評論中所說的那樣，機會的數量逐年顯著增加，甚至連續增加。這並不意味著會發生任何事情，因為我們希望在如何分配資本方面保持嚴格的紀律。

And as long as we're trading beneath the average of the multiples at which we can acquire on a post-synergy basis, we will just stay the course and allocate capital into our shares. So good environment -- well, a plentiful environment from an opportunity perspective. Whether that converts to anything or not, too early to say.

只要我們的交易價格低於我們在協同後的基礎上可以收購的平均市盈率，我們就會堅持到底並將資本配置到我們的股票中。環境非常好——從機會的角度來看，這是一個豐富的環境。無論這是否會轉化為任何東西，現在說還為時過早。

And we have now reached the conclusion of the question-and-answer session. This will conclude today's Post Holdings third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

現在我們的問答環節已經結束了。今天的 Post Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。