菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Philip Morris International 2016 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際 2016 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際公司管理層的講話和問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome and thank you for joining us.

歡迎並感謝您加入我們。

Earlier today we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2016 fourth-quarter and full-year results, and you may access the release on our new Company website at www.PMI.com or the PMI investor relations app.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們 2016 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息，您可以在我們新的公司網站 www.PMI.com 或 PMI 投資者關係應用程序上訪問該新聞稿。

During our call today we will be talking about results for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 and comparing them to the same period in 2015 unless otherwise stated.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將討論 2016 年第四季度和全年的結果，並將它們與 2015 年同期進行比較。

A glossary of terms, adjustments and other calculations as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures are at the end of today's webcast slides which are posted on our website.

術語表、調整和其他計算以及與最直接可比的 US GAAP 措施的對賬在今天發佈在我們網站上的網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾。

Reduced-Risk Products or RRPs is the term we use to refer to products that present, are likely to present or have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continued smoking.

降低風險產品或 RRP 是我們用來指代與繼續吸煙相比，對轉而使用這些產品的吸煙者存在、可能存在或有可能存在較低危害風險的產品的術語。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。

And I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

我請您注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

Please also note that in the first quarter of 2017, we will begin to report our shipment volume on a combined basis including both cigarettes and HeatSticks.

另請注意，在 2017 年第一季度，我們將開始報告我們的出貨量，包括香煙和 HeatSticks。

We will also report our combined estimated market share in certain markets as we currently do for Japan to the extent that reliable data is available.

我們還將報告我們在某些市場的綜合估計市場份額，就像我們目前在日本所做的那樣，只要有可靠的數據可用。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Andre Calantzopoulos, our Chief Executive Officer.

現在我很高興介紹我們的首席執行官 Andre Calantzopoulos。

Jacek Olczak, our Chief Financial Officer, will join Andre for the question-and-answer period.

我們的首席財務官 Jacek Olczak 將與 Andre 一起參加問答環節。

Andre?

安德烈？

Thank you, Nick, and welcome ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝尼克，歡迎女士們先生們。

2016 was a pivotal year for PMI, reflecting exciting progress in our transformation from combustible tobacco products to a Reduced-Risk Products focused Company.

2016 年對 PMI 來說是關鍵的一年，反映出我們在從可燃煙草產品向專注於降低風險產品的公司轉型方面取得了令人振奮的進展。

While our combustible tobacco portfolio continued to drive our income growth we began to see clear signs of the enormous potential of our RRP portfolio.

雖然我們的可燃煙草產品組合繼續推動我們的收入增長，但我們開始看到 RRP 產品組合巨大潛力的明顯跡象。

As expected, we closed 2016 with exceptionally strong quarterly results driven by the annualization of price increases and the growth of RRPs coupled with a favorable cost comparison.

正如預期的那樣，我們在 2016 年結束時取得了異常強勁的季度業績，這得益於價格年化增長和建議零售價的增長以及有利的成本比較。

Net revenues increased by 10.5% excluding currency while adjusted OCI and adjusted diluted EPS increased by over 47% and 51% respectively on the same basis.

不包括貨幣在內的淨收入增長了 10.5%，而調整後的 OCI 和調整後的稀釋每股收益在同一基礎上分別增長了 47% 和 51% 以上。

Full-year net revenues increased by 4.4% excluding currency driven by a favorable pricing variance equivalent to 6% of prior-year net revenues and the strong performance of RRPs, notably HeatSticks and IQOS devices.

全年淨收入增長 4.4%，不包括貨幣，這是由於有利的定價差異（相當於上一年淨收入的 6%）和 RRP（尤其是 HeatSticks 和 IQOS 設備）的強勁表現。

As in any year, we faced some unique challenges in 2016 such as the very large excise tax increase in Argentina, the surge of illicit trade in Pakistan and the cigarette industry volume declines in the Philippines and Thailand.

與往年一樣，我們在 2016 年面臨一些獨特的挑戰，例如阿根廷的消費稅大幅增加、巴基斯坦的非法貿易激增以及菲律賓和泰國的捲煙業銷量下降。

In aggregate, these items had an adverse effect on our volume and net revenues but a very limited impact on our adjusted OCI due to the low corresponding margins.

總的來說，這些項目對我們的銷量和淨收入產生了不利影響，但由於相應的利潤率較低，對我們調整後的 OCI 的影響非常有限。

Please note that approximately 22% of our $733 million in 2016 RRP net revenues were from IQOS devices which yielded a negative margin due to introductory discounts offered in the initial commercialization phase to accelerate adult smokers switching.

請注意，我們 2016 年 7.33 億美元的 RRP 淨收入中約有 22% 來自 IQOS 設備，由於在初始商業化階段提供介紹性折扣以加速成年吸煙者轉換，因此產生了負利潤。

Clearly the economics of the devices will improve over time as we reach broader adult smoker acceptance.

顯然，隨著我們獲得更廣泛的成年吸煙者的接受，設備的經濟性會隨著時間的推移而提高。

Adjusted operating Company's income increased by a robust 10.3% excluding currency, driven by higher net revenues on the same basis and a favorable cost comparison versus 2015, notwithstanding continued investment behind RRPs.

調整後的運營公司收入強勁增長 10.3%（不包括貨幣），這是由於相同基礎上更高的淨收入和與 2015 年相比有利的成本比較，儘管建議零售價背後的持續投資。

Our results were strong across all four Regions with currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth ranging from 8.7% in the European Union to 12.6% in EEMA.

我們在所有四個地區的業績都很強勁，貨幣中性調整後的 OCI 增長率從歐盟的 8.7% 到 EEMA 的 12.6% 不等。

Adjusted OCI margin increased by 0.6 points to 41.8% or by 2.4 points to 43.6% excluding currency, again with gains across all four Regions.

調整後的 OCI 利潤率上升 0.6 個百分點至 41.8% 或上升 2.4 個百分點至 43.6%（不包括貨幣），所有四個地區均有增長。

Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 11.8% excluding currency in 2016.

2016 年不計貨幣調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 11.8%。

Importantly, adjusted diluted EPS grew by 1.4% including currency, representing the first such increase since 2015.

重要的是，包括貨幣在內的調整後攤薄每股收益增長了 1.4%，這是自 2015 年以來的首次增長。

Full-year free cash flow was stable at $6.9 billion despite unfavorable currency of $340 million and our previously announced increase in capital expenditures to support the manufacturing capacity expansion of HeatSticks.

儘管 3.4 億美元的不利貨幣以及我們之前宣布增加資本支出以支持 HeatSticks 的製造能力擴張，但全年自由現金流穩定在 69 億美元。

Excluding currency, free cash flow increased by 4.9%.

不包括貨幣在內，自由現金流增長了 4.9%。

As I mentioned previously, strong financial results were achieved despite the cigarette shipment volume decline in 2016.

正如我之前提到的，儘管 2016 年捲菸出貨量下降，但仍取得了強勁的財務業績。

Some 40% of the decline was due to Pakistan and the Philippines where the volume erosion was concentrated in low unit margin brands that had a limited impact on our bottom line.

約 40% 的下降是由於巴基斯坦和菲律賓，銷量下降集中在對我們的底線影響有限的單位利潤率較低的品牌。

A portion of our cigarette volume decline was also due to in-switching to HeatSticks from our own cigarette brand, a trend that we expect to continue going forward.

我們捲菸銷量下降的一部分也是由於從我們自己的捲煙品牌轉向 HeatSticks，我們預計這一趨勢將繼續向前發展。

HeatSticks volume reached 7.4 billion units which reflected our maximum manufacturing capacity for 2016.

HeatSticks 銷量達到 74 億個，這反映了我們 2016 年的最大製造能力。

HeatSticks volume would have been much higher absent this capacity restriction which obliged us to limit IQOS device sales in Japan since June.

如果沒有這種容量限制，HeatSticks 的銷量會高得多，這迫使我們自 6 月以來限制 IQOS 設備在日本的銷售。

Our cigarette market share excluding China and the US declined by 0.6 points in 2016 with low-price Fortune and super-low price Jackpot, both in the Philippines, accounting for 0.5 points of the total decline.

我們在不包括中國和美國的捲煙市場份額在 2016 年下降了 0.6 個百分點，菲律賓的低價 Fortune 和超低價 Jackpot 佔總下降的 0.5 個百分點。

Cigarette share for the balance of our portfolio was essentially stable.

我們投資組合餘額中的捲煙份額基本穩定。

Marlboro continued its widespread growth with cigarette share increases in the EU, Asia and Latin America and Canada Regions.

隨著歐盟、亞洲、拉丁美洲和加拿大地區捲菸份額的增加，萬寶路繼續其廣泛的增長。

Importantly, the brand cigarette share growth in Asia was achieved despite the impact of Marlboro HeatSticks growth in Japan.

重要的是，儘管日本的 Marlboro HeatSticks 增長帶來了影響，但品牌捲菸在亞洲的份額仍實現了增長。

Marlboro's decline in EEMA was due essentially to Algeria, reflecting significant adult smoker rejection of the 2.0 architecture for Marlboro Round Taste.

萬寶路 EEMA 的下降主要是由於阿爾及利亞，反映出成年吸煙者對萬寶路圓味 2.0 架構的強烈拒絕。

As noted during our September Investor Day, we instituted a number of initiatives to address this weakness.

正如我們在 9 月的投資者日所指出的那樣，我們制定了一系列舉措來解決這一弱點。

And as of the fourth quarter the brand had already recovered close to 6 points of market share compared to its nadir in the second quarter.

與第二季度的最低點相比，截至第四季度，該品牌的市場份額已經恢復了近 6 個百分點。

I will now discuss our performance in a few of our key geographies beginning with the European Union Region.

我現在將從歐盟地區開始討論我們在幾個關鍵地區的表現。

Currency-neutral adjusted OCI increased for the second straight year with higher pricing driving growth of over 8%.

貨幣中性調整後的 OCI 連續第二年增長，較高的定價推動增長超過 8%。

Full-year cigarette industry volume declined by 0.6% with the decrease concentrated in the fourth quarter.

全年捲菸行業銷量下降 0.6%，下降集中在第四季度。

This primarily reflects a difficult comparison with 2015 which benefited from the estimated positive impact of immigration and a recovery from illicit trade.

這主要反映了與 2015 年的艱難比較，後者受益於移民的估計積極影響和非法貿易的複蘇。

Our Regional cigarette share was flat in 2016 with growth notably in France, Poland and Spain, offset mainly by a decline in Italy as a result of our price increase in the second quarter of 2016 and the growth of the super-low price segment.

我們的區域捲菸份額在 2016 年持平，在法國、波蘭和西班牙增長顯著，主要被我們在 2016 年第二季度的價格上漲和超低價格段的增長導致的意大利下降所抵消。

Marlboro's share increased by 0.2 points growing in most key markets with the exception of Italy.

萬寶路在除意大利以外的大多數主要市場的份額增加了 0.2 個百分點。

Moving to Russia, cigarette industry volume again exceeded our expectations in 2016 with the decline moderating to 4.6% despite a third straight year of weighted-average industry retail price increases of about 20%.

轉向俄羅斯，儘管加權平均行業零售價格連續第三年上漲約 20%，但 2016 年捲菸行業銷量再次超出我們的預期，降幅放緩至 4.6%。

Our cigarette market share declined by 1.2 points due mainly to the slower penetration of competitors' price increases at retail.

我們的捲煙市場份額下降了 1.2 個百分點，這主要是由於競爭對手零售價格上漲的滲透速度較慢。

In addition, following the ban of the production of big packs effective July 2016, many competitors launched limited pack editions at a discount equivalent to the per-stick price of big packs.

此外，繼 2016 年 7 月大包裝禁令生效後，許多競爭對手以相當於大包裝每支價格的折扣推出限量版。

We have deployed initiatives to improve our share performance and indeed stabilized our sequential quarterly share in the second half of the year.

我們已經採取措施來改善我們的股票表現，並確實穩定了我們在下半年的連續季度份額。

Strong pricing drove another year of double-digit OCI growth, excluding currency, more than offsetting the adverse cigarette volume impact.

強勁的定價推動了又一年的 OCI 兩位數增長（不包括貨幣），足以抵消不利的捲煙銷量影響。

For reference, amendments to the tax code effective 2017 were enacted last November, raising the ad valorem rate to 14.5% and increasing both the specific and minimum excise tax.

作為參考，去年 11 月頒布了 2017 年生效的稅法修正案，將從價稅率提高到 14.5%，並提高了從量稅和最低消費稅。

The weighted-average total excise tax pass-on for the industry is around RUB13 per pack which equates to an average retail price increase of around 10%.

該行業的加權平均總消費稅轉嫁約為每包 13 盧布，相當於平均零售價格上漲 10% 左右。

It is about the approximately RUB10 per pack average pass-on for 2016.

這大約是 2016 年每包平均轉嫁約 10 盧布。

Importantly, the tax code also now includes the introduction of a weight-based specific excise tax on heated tobacco products.

重要的是，稅法現在還包括對加熱煙草產品徵收基於重量的特定消費稅。

Turning now to Japan, the growth of our RRPs in 2016 had a notable impact on cigarette industry volume which declined by 4.6% for the full year and by 7.4% in the fourth quarter.

現在轉向日本，我們 2016 年建議零售價的增長對捲菸行業銷量產生了顯著影響，全年下降 4.6%，第四季度下降 7.4%。

HeatSticks' national marketshare continued its strong sequential growth, reaching 4.9% in the fourth quarter.

HeatSticks 的全國市場份額繼續保持強勁的環比增長，第四季度達到 4.9%。

During the final week of December HeatSticks' national marketshare reached an estimated 5.5% and its offtake share increased to 7%.

在 12 月的最後一周，HeatSticks 的全國市場份額估計達到 5.5%，其承購份額增加到 7%。

Our full-year cigarette market share declined by 0.4 points to 24.9% due mainly to the impact of HeatSticks.

我們的全年捲菸市場份額下降了 0.4 個百分點至 24.9%，這主要是由於 HeatSticks 的影響。

The rate of in-switching to HeatSticks from our own cigarette portfolio declined as the year progressed to an estimated 32% in late 2016.

隨著時間的推移，從我們自己的捲煙產品組合轉向 HeatSticks 的比例下降到 2016 年底的估計 32%。

Our combined market share, including cigarettes and HeatSticks, increased by 1.7 points to 27.1% in 2016 and by 3.1 points to 28.3% in the fourth quarter.

我們的合併市場份額（包括香煙和 HeatSticks）在 2016 年增長了 1.7 個百分點至 27.1%，在第四季度增長了 3.1 個百分點至 28.3%。

Indonesia continued to be an important profit driver for PMI in 2016 with double-digit OCI growth mainly reflecting strong pricing.

印度尼西亞繼續成為 2016 年 PMI 的重要利潤驅動因素，OCI 兩位數增長主要反映了強勁的定價。

Cigarette industry volume declined by 1.4% due mainly to the soft economic environment and higher retail prices driven by a weighted-average excise tax increase in 2016 of around 15% industry-wide.

捲菸行業銷量下降 1.4%，主要是由於疲軟的經濟環境和 2016 年全行業 15% 左右的加權平均消費稅增加導致零售價格上漲。

The excise tax increase for 2017 is around 10% on the same basis, though the government also increased the VAT rate on cigarettes to 9.1% from 8.7% last year.

在同一基礎上，2017 年的消費稅增幅約為 10%，不過政府還將捲煙的增值稅稅率從去年的 8.7% 提高到 9.1%。

As a result, the weighted-average total pass-on for the industry in 2017 is approximately 6% at the retail level compared to 8% in 2016.

因此，2017 年該行業零售層面的加權平均總轉嫁率約為 6%，而 2016 年為 8%。

The 0.9 points decline in our cigarette market share was due mainly to the soft performance of our lighter-tasting machine-made kretek brands, reflecting the impact of competitors' discounted product offerings.

我們的捲煙市場份額下降 0.9 個百分點，主要是由於我們口味較淡的機制丁香煙品牌表現疲軟，反映了競爭對手打折產品的影響。

Our share decline was partly offset by the strong performance of our full-flavor machine kretek brand U Bold.

我們的全味機器丁香煙品牌 U Bold 的強勁表現部分抵消了我們的份額下降。

In addition, our Marlboro Filter Black kretek offering, which we launched in 25 cities last September, is performing well and already reached a national marketshare of 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

此外，我們去年 9 月在 25 個城市推出的 Marlboro Filter Black kretek 產品表現良好，第四季度已達到 0.5% 的全國市場份額。

Our actions to address our last year share weakness will continue bearing fruit this year and we project that Indonesia will again be a key contributor to our OCI growth in 2017.

我們解決去年份額疲軟的行動今年將繼續取得成果，我們預計印度尼西亞將再次成為我們 2017 年 OCI 增長的主要貢獻者。

Profit in the Philippines continued to improve in 2016 through higher pricing and favorable mix.

菲律賓的利潤在 2016 年通過更高的定價和有利的組合繼續改善。

While our total cigarette share declined by 2.1 points due mainly to Fortune and Jackpot Marlboro performed exceptionally, increasing its volume by 25%.

雖然我們的捲煙總份額下降了 2.1 個百分點，這主要是由於 Fortune 和 Jackpot Marlboro 表現出色，其銷量增加了 25%。

Cigarette industry volume declined by 12% due principally to the impact of excise tax-driven retail price increases at the bottom of the market in late 2015.

捲菸行業銷量下降了 12%，這主要是由於 2015 年底市場底部消費稅驅動的零售價格上漲的影響。

Industry volume decreased by 13.2% in the fourth quarter, reflecting the impact of further excise tax-driven price increases at the end of October last year.

第四季度行業銷量下降 13.2%，反映了去年 10 月底消費稅進一步推動價格上漲的影響。

Effective January 1 of this year, the excise tax structure in the Philippines was reduced to one tier with a specific rate of PHP30 per pack.

自今年 1 月 1 日起，菲律賓的消費稅結構降至一級，具體稅率為每包 PHP30。

This completed the tax tier harmonization process which saw weighted-average excise tax increases of 33% on a compound annual basis since 2013.

自 2013 年以來，這完成了稅級協調進程，加權平均消費稅年復合增長 33%。

Based on current legislation, the specific rate is scheduled to increase by 4% annually beginning in 2018.

根據現行立法，從 2018 年開始，具體稅率計劃每年增加 4%。

While we expect continued followed softness this year due mainly to the final step in the excise tax tier convergence we remain positive about the long-term growth potential in this important market.

雖然我們預計今年將繼續走軟，主要是由於消費稅等級趨同的最後一步，但我們對這個重要市場的長期增長潛力仍然持樂觀態度。

In the Latin America and Canada Region strong currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth of 12.4% in 2016 was driven by higher pricing, notably in Argentina and Canada.

在拉丁美洲和加拿大地區，2016 年強勁的貨幣中性調整後 OCI 增長 12.4% 是由更高的定價推動的，尤其是在阿根廷和加拿大。

Our Regional cigarette market share increased by 0.7 points, driven by Marlboro and supported by share gains in Brazil, Canada and Mexico.

在萬寶路的推動下，以及在巴西、加拿大和墨西哥的份額增長的支持下，我們的區域捲菸市場份額增加了 0.7 個百分點。

Regional cigarette industry volume declined by 5.9% in 2016 due mainly to tax-driven retail price increases in Argentina and Brazil.

2016 年區域捲菸行業銷量下降 5.9%，主要是由於阿根廷和巴西的稅收驅動的零售價格上漲。

We expect the industry volume declines in both markets to moderate in 2017.

我們預計 2017 年這兩個市場的行業銷量下滑將放緩。

To close on 2016 I will highlight the favorable performance of IQOS across the many launch markets beyond Japan.

在 2016 年結束之際，我將強調 IQOS 在日本以外的許多發布市場的良好表現。

While this performance requires some additional context given the smaller scale of the launches and the role of HeatSticks capacity constraints in the second half of last year, it nonetheless serves as a positive indicator of the potential for IQOS broadly.

考慮到去年下半年推出的規模較小以及 HeatSticks 容量限制的作用，雖然這種表現需要一些額外的背景，但它仍然是 IQOS 廣泛潛力的積極指標。

One measure that we closely monitor is the rate of IQOS purchases who fully or predominantly convert to the product.

我們密切監控的一項指標是完全或主要轉換為該產品的 IQOS 購買率。

Conversion rates have grown over time and at the end of 2016 stood at approximately 70% or higher.

轉化率隨著時間的推移而增長，在 2016 年底達到約 70% 或更高。

As a reminder, Japan only reached this level in May last year, over 18 months after launch.

提醒一下，日本在去年 5 月才達到這個水平，即發射後 18 個月。

This confirms that IQOS resonates strongly with adult smokers who try it irrespective of the market.

這證實了 IQOS 與嘗試 IQOS 的成年吸煙者產生強烈共鳴，無論市場如何。

We also clearly monitor HeatSticks offtake volumes.

我們還清楚地監控 HeatSticks 的承購量。

During the fourth quarter of 2016 estimated offtake volume in all markets with launches prior to midyear grew at a compound weekly rate of over 6%, comparable to Japan during the initial launch phase.

2016 年第四季度，在年中之前推出的所有市場的估計承購量以超過 6% 的複合週增長率增長，與日本在初始推出階段相當。

Such performance augurs well for our planned national expansions which in Japan had an accelerating effect.

這樣的表現預示著我們計劃的全國擴張在日本產生了加速效果。

Turning now to 2017, we enter the year with positive momentum and favorable trends across many of our key geographies, although currency volatility remains an issue.

現在轉向 2017 年，儘管貨幣波動仍然是一個問題，但我們在許多主要地區都以積極的勢頭和有利的趨勢進入了這一年。

As announced this morning, our reported diluted EPS guidance for 2017 at prevailing exchange rates is a range of $4.70 to $4.85 versus $4.48 in 2016 and includes an unfavorable currency impact of approximately $0.18.

正如今天上午宣布的那樣，我們報告的 2017 年攤薄後每股收益指引按現行匯率計算為 4.70 美元至 4.85 美元，而 2016 年為 4.48 美元，其中包括約 0.18 美元的不利貨幣影響。

This guidance represents a growth rate excluding currency of approximately 9% to 12% compared to our adjusted diluted EPS of $4.48 in 2016.

與我們 2016 年調整後的攤薄每股收益 4.48 美元相比，該指引表示不包括貨幣在內的增長率約為 9% 至 12%。

We expect our currency-neutral financial growth to be slightly skewed over the second half of 2017, reflecting the timing of HeatSticks capacity and phasing of RRP investments as well as unfavorable cigarette industry volume comparisons with the first half of 2016 notably in Argentina, the EU Region and Turkey.

我們預計 2017 年下半年我們的貨幣中性財務增長將略微傾斜，反映出 HeatSticks 產能的時機和 RRP 投資的階段性以及與 2016 年上半年相比不利的捲煙行業銷量，特別是在阿根廷、歐盟地區和土耳其。

The $0.18 of unfavorable currency impact at prevailing exchange rates included in our 2017 guidance is driven primarily by the Turkish lira, euro, Japanese yen and Mexican peso, partly offset by the Russian ruble.

我們 2017 年指南中包含的按現行匯率計算的 0.18 美元的不利貨幣影響主要由土耳其里拉、歐元、日元和墨西哥比索推動，部分被俄羅斯盧布抵消。

We have currently hedged approximately 40% of our 2017 forecast sales to Japan which at prevailing exchange rate translates to an effective rate of JPY114 to the US dollar versus JPY111 in 2016.

我們目前已對沖約 40% 的 2017 年日本預測銷售額，按現行匯率計算，2016 年兌美元的有效匯率為 114 日元兌 111 日元。

As I noted during last September's Investor Day the advent of RRPs introduces some additional variables into the attractive and predictable growth equation of our industry.

正如我在去年 9 月的投資者日指出的那樣，RRP 的出現為我們行業具有吸引力和可預測的增長方程式引入了一些額外的變量。

These variables are somewhat less range bound and linear given the emerging nature of the category but also offer exponential upside.

鑑於該類別的新興性質，這些變量的範圍限制和線性程度略低，但也提供指數上升空間。

For this reason, we have widened our EPS guidance range this year to $0.15.

出於這個原因，我們將今年的 EPS 指導範圍擴大到 0.15 美元。

Our EPS guidance reflects net revenue growth in excess of our current currency-neutral annual growth target range of 4% to 6%.

我們的每股收益指引反映了淨收入增長超過我們目前 4% 至 6% 的貨幣中性年度增長目標範圍。

We expect this growth to be driven by two main factors: higher RRP volume reflecting both HeatSticks and IQOS devices and a favorable pricing variance.

我們預計這一增長將由兩個主要因素推動：更高的 RRP 數量反映了 HeatSticks 和 IQOS 設備以及有利的價格差異。

The anticipated pricing variance is equivalent to approximately 6% of our 2016 net revenues.

預期定價差異相當於我們 2016 年淨收入的約 6%。

As of today we have implemented or announced over 60% of the pricing that is included in our guidance.

截至今天，我們已經實施或宣布了指南中包含的超過 60% 的定價。

Our guidance also reflects significant incremental investment behind the deployment of our RRP portfolio, partly offset by the judicious reallocation of resources from our combustible tobacco portfolio to RRPs in the relevant markets.

我們的指引還反映了部署我們的 RRP 產品組合背後的大量增量投資，部分被我們將資源從可燃煙草產品組合明智地重新分配到相關市場的 RRP 所抵消。

For this year we are targeting operating cash flow of approximately $8.5 billion, reflecting higher net earnings.

今年我們的目標是運營現金流量約為 85 億美元，反映出更高的淨收益。

We plan to use this cash flow primarily for capital expenditures to support the growth of our business and for dividends at the Board's discretion to our shareholders.

我們計劃將這筆現金流主要用於資本支出，以支持我們的業務增長，並由董事會酌情決定向股東派發股息。

We anticipate capital expenditures of approximately $1.5 billion this year versus $1.2 billion in 2016.

我們預計今年的資本支出約為 15 億美元，而 2016 年為 12 億美元。

The projected increase is driven by higher investment to support RRP capacity expansion, notably for HeatSticks.

預計增長是由支持 RRP 產能擴張的更高投資推動的，尤其是 HeatSticks。

Last September we increased our annual dividend for the ninth consecutive year since the spin in 2008, representing a total increase of approximately 126% at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11%.

去年 9 月，我們自 2008 年分拆以來連續第九年增加了年度股息，總增幅約為 126%，複合年增長率約為 11%。

While we expect our combustible tobacco business to remain the primary driver of our financial results in the near-term, our Reduced-Risk Products portfolio provides us with the single largest opportunity to significantly accelerate the growth of our Company and generously reward our shareholders.

雖然我們預計我們的可燃煙草業務在短期內仍將是我們財務業績的主要驅動力，但我們的低風險產品組合為我們提供了一個最大的機會來顯著加快公司的發展並慷慨地回報我們的股東。

In 2017 the majority of our RRP commercialization focus will remain on IQOS.

2017 年，我們的大部分 RRP 商業化重點仍將放在 IQOS 上。

To date, we have launched IQOS in key cities in 20 markets as seen on this slide and aim to expand nationally in many of these markets this year as HeatSticks capacity becomes available.

迄今為止，我們已經在 20 個市場的主要城市推出了 IQOS，如本幻燈片所示，併計劃在今年隨著 HeatSticks 容量的可用而在其中許多市場向全國擴張。

We are also targeting launches in key cities in an additional 10 to 15 markets by year-end subject to capacity.

我們還計劃在年底前在另外 10 到 15 個市場的主要城市推出新產品，具體視容量而定。

We began 2017 with approximately 15 billion units of installed annual HeatSticks capacity and expect over 32 billion units in total capacity to be available for commercialization this year.

2017 年初，我們的 HeatSticks 年裝機容量約為 150 億個，預計今年的商業化總容量將超過 320 億個。

We continue to anticipate an installed annual capacity of approximately 50 billion units by year-end.

我們繼續預計年底前的年裝機容量約為 500 億台。

We look forward to unleashing the true potential of IQOS once the pressure on HeatSticks capacity eases as the year unfolds.

我們期待在 HeatSticks 產能壓力隨著時間的推移而緩解後釋放 IQOS 的真正潛力。

Moving to our other RRP platforms, we expect to conduct city tests for our Platform 2 heated tobacco product and our Platform 3 nicotine-containing product this year.

轉向我們的其他 RRP 平台，我們預計今年將對我們的平台 2 加熱煙草產品和我們的平台 3 含尼古丁產品進行城市測試。

We began the city test of our Platform 4 MESH vaporization technology in Birmingham, UK late last year and though still very early we are pleased by the initial results and are related learnings thus far.

去年底，我們在英國伯明翰開始了我們的 Platform 4 MESH 汽化技術的城市測試，雖然還很早，但我們對初步結果和迄今為止的相關學習感到滿意。

In conclusion, 2016 was a pivotal year for PMI, reflecting exciting progress in our transformation from combustible tobacco products to Reduced-Risk Products focused Company.

總之，2016 年對 PMI 來說是關鍵的一年，反映出我們從可燃煙草產品向專注於降低風險產品的公司轉型取得了令人振奮的進展。

We recorded strong full-year currency-neutral financial results driven by our combustible tobacco business and including an important net revenue growth contribution from RRPs for the first time.

在我們的可燃煙草業務的推動下，我們錄得強勁的全年貨幣中性財務業績，其中首次包括來自 RRP 的重要淨收入增長貢獻。

IQOS is performing exceptionally, which is most visible success in Japan and high conversion rates and offtake volume growth broadly.

IQOS 的表現非常出色，這在日本取得了最明顯的成功，而且轉化率高，銷售量普遍增長。

As of year-end 2016 we estimate that approximately 1.4 million adult consumers have quit smoking cigarettes and converted to IQOS.

截至 2016 年底，我們估計約有 140 萬成年消費者已戒菸並轉而使用 IQOS。

Finally, the outlook for our business remains strong.

最後，我們的業務前景依然強勁。

Our 2017 EPS guidance reflects a growth rate of approximately 9% to 12% excluding currency compared to adjusted diluted EPS of $4.48 in 2016.

我們的 2017 年每股收益指引反映了與 2016 年 4.48 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益相比，不包括貨幣在內的增長率約為 9% 至 12%。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Jacek and I will now be happy to answer your questions.

Jacek 和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）Judy Hong，Goldman Sachs。

Thank you, hi, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家好。

So first, just in terms of 2017 guidance it's now calling for 9% to 12% earnings growth.

因此，首先，就 2017 年的指引而言，它現在要求盈利增長 9% 至 12%。

It's a little bit better than the 8% to 10% algorithm that you had given at the September meeting.

它比您在 9 月的會議上給出的 8% 到 10% 的算法要好一點。

So can you just talk about what's changed in terms of thinking about 2017?

那麼，您能否談談對 2017 年的思考發生了什麼變化？

And obviously you've talked about the IQOS contribution from a revenue standpoint, but are you expecting profit contribution to kick in in 2017 from an IQOS standpoint?

顯然你已經從收入的角度談到了 IQOS 的貢獻，但你是否期望從 IQOS 的角度來看 2017 年的利潤貢獻？

The reason, first of all, we increased the range as I explained is because there is, obviously, a bit more volatility as regarding the IQOS HeatSticks sales but also our capacity.

首先，正如我所解釋的那樣，我們增加範圍的原因是，顯然，IQOS HeatSticks 的銷售以及我們的產能存在更大的波動。

And that explains more or less the vast majority of the variability, I would say.

我會說，這或多或少地解釋了絕大多數的可變性。

Clearly IQOS is going to play a big role in our revenue growth next year.

顯然，IQOS 將在明年的收入增長中發揮重要作用。

And here I would like to give some clarification for all the people on the call broadly to understand.

在這裡，我想對所有參加電話會議的人進行一些澄清，以便廣泛理解。

There is always in the revenues coming from part of the revenues coming from IQOS is due to the revised sales.

來自 IQOS 的部分收入總是來自修訂後的銷售收入。

And as I said, at this initial commercialization phase the bottom-line contribution of device sales is negative.

正如我所說，在這個最初的商業化階段，設備銷售的底線貢獻是負的。

And if we take 2016 as a proxy if you look at total IQOS revenues 22% of those revenues were linked to device sales.

如果我們以 2016 年為代表，如果你看一下 IQOS 的總收入，那麼這些收入的 22% 與設備銷售有關。

Just to give you another rule of thumb for your own projections, if we look forward, and I would think that will work for the first year or two, obviously, of IQOS sales if we have rapid expansion, you should count for every incremental 1 billion sales of HeatSticks roughly 300,000 to 350,000 sales of devices of IQOS which have a negative margin.

只是給你另一個關於你自己預測的經驗法則，如果我們向前看，我認為這將在第一年或第二年起作用，顯然，如果我們快速擴張，IQOS 銷售，你應該計算每一個增量 1億的 HeatSticks 銷售額大約有 300,000 到 350,000 的 IQOS 設備的銷售額為負。

So we cannot apply our current operating profit margins to the devices, that's all I want all of you to understand, okay?

所以我們不能將我們目前的營業利潤率應用到設備上，這就是我想讓你們所有人理解的，好嗎？

Having said that, clearly IQOS will be an increasingly important contributor to our revenue growth, and also we have to take into consideration there will be much more substantial cannibalization.

話雖如此，顯然 IQOS 將對我們的收入增長做出越來越重要的貢獻，而且我們必須考慮到會有更多的實質性蠶食。

As I said, 32% of the people switching into IQOS in Japan come from our own brand and if we take European Union countries we will be north of 40%.

正如我所說，在日本轉用 IQOS 的人中有 32% 來自我們自己的品牌，如果我們考慮歐盟國家，我們將超過 40%。

That's why we said as we approach this as one Company and one business we will be reporting combined volumes because it will be very difficult over time to split the two and calculate cannibalization rates.

這就是為什麼我們說，當我們將其作為一個公司和一個業務來處理時，我們將報告合併的數量，因為隨著時間的推移，將兩者分開併計算蠶食率將非常困難。

So overall I think we have very strong guidance for the year, that's really clear.

所以總的來說，我認為我們對今年有非常強有力的指導，這非常明確。

And I'm very happy with -- I don't know if I answered your question entirely.

我很高興——我不知道我是否完全回答了你的問題。

Yes, I think that certainly helpful.

是的，我認為這肯定有幫助。

If I can follow up on Japan, Andre, just in terms of what you've seen post the Glo launch in Sendai and how you think that bad impacting the broader, the heated tobacco category as well as your market share performance in that market?

如果我能跟進日本，安德烈，就你在仙台推出 Glo 後所看到的情況以及你認為這對更廣泛的加熱煙草類別以及你在該市場的市場份額表現有何不利影響而言？

Well, first of all, it's a very good thing that other companies launch heat-not-burn and in general Reduced-Risk Products.

好吧，首先，其他公司推出加熱不燃燒產品和總體上降低風險的產品是一件非常好的事情。

Because as I've said many times once you convince people to move out of cigarettes, then clearly in my view the better products in the new category will eventually succeed and prevail.

因為正如我多次說過的那樣，一旦你說服人們戒掉香煙，那麼在我看來，新類別中更好的產品顯然最終會成功並佔上風。

It's very early days and, obviously, as in any test market you also have some sales not staying in the city but going somewhere else, but the results are fairly good.

現在還很早，很明顯，在任何測試市場中，你也有一些銷售不留在城市而是去其他地方，但結果相當不錯。

Now this has not impacted at all the IQOS share that continued to grow during the period, which to your point outlines that there is a lot of demand for this new category in Japan.

現在，這絲毫沒有影響在此期間持續增長的 IQOS 份額，就您而言，這表明日本對這一新品類的需求很大。

And that's very encouraging for all of us.

這對我們所有人來說都是非常鼓舞人心的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, and then just finally Jacek, just the inventory impact in the quarter, it sounds like you had a pretty positive impact in both Japan and Russia, maybe a 2 point of an impact.

好的，最後是 Jacek，只是本季度的庫存影響，聽起來你在日本和俄羅斯都產生了非常積極的影響，可能有 2 點的影響。

So maybe just at the total Company level if you can quantify the inventory impact and how that will impact the 2017 combustible volume if this reverses in the coming quarters?

因此，如果您可以量化庫存影響，以及如果這種情況在未來幾個季度出現逆轉，這將如何影響 2017 年的可燃物量，那麼也許只是在整個公司層面？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Russia ended up with higher inventory but it was pretty normal reaction to the price rollouts and into the market.

俄羅斯最終庫存增加，但這是對價格推出和進入市場的正常反應。

So usually you hide a little bit the inventory, and I think some of this is going to unwind during the year.

所以通常你會隱藏一點庫存，我認為其中一些會在年內平倉。

And the second thing on Japan is the more, look, we have a little bit to be frank and to link back to what Andre said, I mean IQOS volumes versus the combustible volumes in Japan is a little bit harder for us to predict, so you might have some temporary dislocations of inventories to the sales there.

關於日本的第二件事是，看，我們有一點坦率地說，回到安德烈所說的，我的意思是 IQOS 銷量與日本可燃物銷量相比，我們更難預測，所以您可能會暫時將庫存與那裡的銷售錯位。

I think we are going to correct there, on the other hand we ended up, frankly, speaking with almost no inventories for the IQOS combustibles -- sorry, for the IQOS RRPs.

我認為我們會在那裡糾正，另一方面，坦率地說，我們最終幾乎沒有 IQOS 可燃物的庫存——對不起，對於 IQOS RRPs。

So I think you'll see this corrections going forward in 2017.

所以我認為你會在 2017 年看到這種更正。

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

馬修格蘭傑，摩根士丹利。

Hi, I guess first question on IQOS, you've referenced it being present in 30 to 35 markets during 2017 or by the end of 2017.

你好，我想第一個問題是關於 IQOS，你提到它在 2017 年或到 2017 年底出現在 30 到 35 個市場。

Is it possible to give a sense for how markets you are targeting to potentially receive full investment in field sales resources, essentially the level of resources that you need to fully activate the IQOS platform and break through that 2% to 3% marketshare threshold as opposed to markets that you will be in more just in an initial capacity?

是否有可能了解您的目標市場如何潛在地獲得現場銷售資源的全部投資，本質上是您完全激活 IQOS 平台並突破 2% 到 3% 的市場份額門檻所需的資源水平，而不是您將以初始身份進入的市場？

The first thing is we need to differentiate whether in these markets we do city introductions or national launches because that absorbs capacity clearly and resources.

第一件事是我們需要區分在這些市場中我們是做城市介紹還是全國發布，因為這會清楚地吸收容量和資源。

Now as an overall picture, for this year clearly there is substantial incremental investment in commercial expenses behind IQOS.

現在總體來看，今年顯然 IQOS 背後有大量的商業支出增量投資。

Despite the fact that in the relevant markets we have also reallocated resources from our existing business to IQOS because everybody will be doing IQOS for a national launch.

儘管事實上在相關市場我們也將資源從我們現有的業務重新分配到 IQOS，因為每個人都將在全國推出 IQOS。

So overall I think this is all in the guidance, bearing in mind that if we see more traction and we have the capacity we may put even more resources behind during the year in terms of field forces and other commercial activities.

所以總的來說，我認為這一切都在指導中，請記住，如果我們看到更多的牽引力並且我們有能力，我們可能會在這一年中在現場部隊和其他商業活動方面投入更多資源。

And if we have capacity constraints we may postpone some launches, and we all need to live with this variability because it's very difficult for me to predict precisely how this is going to unfold.

如果我們有能力限制，我們可能會推遲一些發射，我們都需要忍受這種可變性，因為我很難準確預測這將如何展開。

But overall the trend is extremely positive, and that's why it is reflected in the guidance.

但總的來說，趨勢是非常積極的，這就是它反映在指南中的原因。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Thanks Andre.

謝謝安德烈。

And Jacek, I was hoping you could speak maybe at a general level to the potential impact of US tax reform on the Company.

Jacek，我希望你能從總體上談談美國稅制改革對公司的潛在影響。

And I know there's a range of possibilities.

我知道有多種可能性。

The statutory rate may go down.

法定稅率可能會下降。

That applies to your repatriation you could have a territorial system where repatriation is tax-free, interest deductibility could be changed.

這適用於您的遣返，您可以擁有一個領土系統，在該系統中，遣返是免稅的，可以改變利息扣除額。

So I'm just curious how you'd contextualize the potential implications for PM.

所以我很好奇您如何將對 PM 的潛在影響背景化。

You about mentioned all the variables which have been discussed between the President Trump and the Republicans, but we will have to see how it's going to reconcile.

你提到了特朗普總統和共和黨人之間討論過的所有變數，但我們必須看看它如何調和。

I think it would be preemptive at this stage to give a more sound estimate.

我認為在現階段給出更合理的估計是先發製人的。

I mean, clearly the tax reform should allow with what we hear from the US it should allow for the different repatriation pattern to US, but we will have to see what is going to happen.

我的意思是，顯然稅制改革應該允許我們從美國聽到的，它應該允許不同的匯回美國模式，但我們必須看看會發生什麼。

If you go to note 11 in our filings you will see we always break down how much tax we pay on a foreign basis and how much profit taxes we pay before repatriations to US.

如果您查看我們的文件中的註釋 11，您會發現我們總是會細分我們在國外支付的稅款以及在匯回美國之前我們支付的利潤稅。

And the rate, the blended rate would be somewhere in the range 22%, 22.5%.

而比率，混合比率將在 22%、22.5% 的範圍內。

So the foreign taxes which we paid in our earnings which we generate outside US.

因此，我們在美國境外產生的收入中繳納的外國稅款。

And then, obviously, to (inaudible) our effective tax rate which you have today you have to add the different various cost of a repatriation of these earnings to US and, obviously, the top-up to the 35% statutory in the US.

然後，很明顯，除了（聽不清）我們今天的有效稅率，你必須加上將這些收入匯回美國的各種不同成本，顯然，還要加上美國 35% 的法定稅率。

But whatever happens we will not be able with the current tax regime staying as they are today to go to the tax rate lower than this 22%, 22.5%.

但無論發生什麼情況，我們都無法在目前的稅收制度下保持現狀，將稅率降至低於 22%、22.5% 的水平。

Okay, this is a rule of thumb I would use.

好的，這是我會使用的經驗法則。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

邦妮赫爾佐格，富國銀行。

I guess my first question is on pricing which was very strong during the quarter.

我想我的第一個問題是關於本季度非常強勁的定價。

So I'm curious what you learned from consumer behavior by taking this much pricing, and then what your elasticity was?

所以我很好奇你通過採用如此高的定價從消費者行為中學到了什麼，然後你的彈性是多少？

And then with pricing consistent across your different brands, in other words I guess I'm trying to understand if you were able to maintain the same level of price gaps within your portfolio?

然後在您的不同品牌之間保持一致的定價，換句話說，我想我想了解您是否能夠在您的產品組合中保持相同水平的價格差距？

Well, there were a couple of price increases that came a bit earlier.

好吧，之前有幾次價格上漲。

In the Philippines we increased, if I recall correctly, in October, we came in the quarter.

在菲律賓，如果我沒記錯的話，我們在 10 月份增加了這個季度。

And in Turkey the government adjusted the minimum excise specific tax.

在土耳其，政府調整了最低消費稅。

Effective January 1 we took the pricing a bit ahead of that.

從 1 月 1 日起，我們提前了一點定價。

So all these prices appear in the quarter clearly.

所以所有這些價格都清楚地出現在本季度。

There is nothing exceptional in the normal course of things.

正常情況下沒有什麼異常。

I think the pricing was more or less the same across segments in absolute terms in the majority of the market.

我認為在大多數市場中，按絕對值計算，各個細分市場的定價或多或少是相同的。

So there is no any particular opening of price gaps that I can think about.

因此，我可以考慮沒有任何特定的價格缺口開口。

And we have not seen elasticities changing.

我們還沒有看到彈性發生變化。

However, the only thing we need to observe now is Turkey, because in Turkey if you take the beginning of 2016 to the end we took TRY3 per pack price increase which is roughly 30% plus average, and Turkey grew also because of the reduction of the contraband volume last year, especially in the first half of the year.

然而，我們現在唯一需要觀察的是土耳其，因為在土耳其，如果你從 2016 年初到年底，我們將每包價格上漲 3 土耳其里拉，大約是平均價格的 30% 以上，而土耳其的增長也是因為減少了去年尤其是上半年的違禁品數量。

So we can expect a little bit of weaknesses I would assume given that magnitude of price increases.

因此，鑑於價格上漲的幅度，我們可以預期會出現一些弱點。

And I think we will recover as the year unfolds as of second half.

而且我認為我們將隨著下半年的展開而復蘇。

But we will see softness in the first part of the year, but that's all I can say about this whole thing.

但我們會在今年上半年看到疲軟，但這就是我對整個事情的全部看法。

Okay.

好的。

Then I wanted to go back to something on your guidance that you mentioned.

然後我想回到你提到的關於你的指導的事情上。

Just wanted to be clear, so your guidance assumes that IQOS in total will still be breakeven.

只是想清楚一點，所以你的指導假設 IQOS 總體上仍將達到收支平衡。

I think that's what you mentioned at your Investor Day, so I just wanted to clarify that.

我想這就是你在投資者日提到的，所以我只是想澄清一下。

Then I wanted to understand your plans for spending by IQOS or behind IQOS this year and then maybe help us quantify how big of an increase you are anticipating if you could do that?

然後我想了解你今年在 IQOS 上或在 IQOS 之後的支出計劃，然後也許可以幫助我們量化如果你能做到這一點，你預計會有多大的增長？

Yes, IQOS will breakeven towards the end of next year.

是的，IQOS 將在明年年底實現收支平衡。

If you remember, I'm sorry this year (multiple speakers).

如果你還記得，今年我很抱歉（多位發言人）。

We are still in 2016, okay.

我們還在2016年，好吧。

I'm sorry about that.

對此我感到很抱歉。

This year.

今年。

And we still have significant capacity constraints in the third quarter if you remember.

如果你還記得的話，我們在第三季度仍然有很大的產能限制。

And then we had a very aggressive capacity buildup plan.

然後我們有一個非常積極的能力建設計劃。

And clearly the whole volume is going to be skewed towards the second half of the year.

很明顯，整個交易量將偏向今年下半年。

This is also the reason that the first quarter is going to be probably the weakest in the year because we don't have the capacity.

這也是第一季度可能是今年最疲軟的原因，因為我們沒有能力。

But many European markets, for example, and others are making all the investments ahead of the deployment in the first quarter and second quarter.

但是，例如，許多歐洲市場和其他市場都在第一季度和第二季度的部署之前進行了所有投資。

So that's how I see it unfolding during the year.

這就是我看到它在這一年中展開的方式。

And these are substantial incremental investments.

這些都是大量的增量投資。

I can't quantify but they are very substantial.

我無法量化，但它們非常可觀。

The increment is much higher than this year.

增幅遠高於今年。

All right, that's helpful.

好吧，這很有幫助。

And then just my final question, I'd be curious to hear from you guys the feedback you've been receiving from public health experts and then governments around the world given the success you've had with IQOS and the science you've been publishing.

然後是我的最後一個問題，我很想听聽你們從公共衛生專家那裡收到的反饋，然後是世界各國政府，鑑於你們在 IQOS 上取得的成功以及你們一直以來的科學出版。

Anything you can share with us regarding conversations in progress you are making would really be helpful.

您可以與我們分享有關您正在進行的對話的任何內容，這將非常有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I can comment generally.

我可以一般評論。

I also have direct contacts with a number of people.

我還與許多人有直接聯繫。

I think there is a positive momentum building, and I must say faster than I personally anticipated.

我認為正在建立積極的勢頭，而且我必須說比我個人預期的要快。

Now as you know very well there are still people that have not embraced the principle of harm reduction through product, and that will continue requiring a significant amount of work going forward.

正如你所熟知的那樣，現在仍然有人沒有接受通過產品減少危害的原則，這將繼續需要大量的工作向前推進。

But I believe the trend is very positive, and I'm very happy with the progress we are making.

但我相信趨勢是非常積極的，我對我們正在取得的進展感到非常高興。

I am not saying there will be no hurdles.

我並不是說不會有任何障礙。

I'm not going there is not going to be difficulties.

我不去那裡不會有困難。

But I think the way we are received and the science is received is positive, very positive.

但我認為我們接受的方式和接受科學的方式是積極的，非常積極的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Chris Growe, Stifel.

克里斯·格羅，Stifel。

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

I just had a couple of questions for you if I could.

如果可以的話，我只是有幾個問題要問你。

The first, and I hope this is not a repeat of earlier questions, but you talked about shifting resources from combustibles to RRPs.

第一個，我希望這不是重複之前的問題，但你談到了將資源從可燃物轉移到 RRP。

And I know you are probably trying to find the right balance across many of those markets.

我知道您可能正試圖在其中許多市場中找到合適的平衡點。

I'm thinking like a market like Japan, can you talk about how resources have shifted if that's a percentage or some measurement of that to explain how that shifts from one to the other?

我在想像日本這樣的市場，你能談談資源是如何轉移的嗎，如果這是一個百分比或某種衡量標準來解釋資源是如何從一個轉移到另一個的？

And then just to be clear, I'm sorry if I missed it, have you said how much your costs are up in 2017 and would that be inclusive of RRP investments?

然後明確一點，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，你有沒有說過你的成本在 2017 年增加了多少，這是否包括 RRP 投資？

Okay, on your first question, first of all, the allocation, the reallocation is done on the relevant market.

好的，關於你的第一個問題，首先是分配，重新分配是在相關市場上進行的。

We are not reducing resources in a market where we don't plan to launch RRPs and put them behind the RRPs.

在我們不打算推出 RRP 並將其置於 RRP 之後的市場中，我們不會減少資源。

And the explanation is -- the allocation is based on the fact that as I said at Investors Day we tried to get as fast as possible to the 2% or 3% marketshare that we believe is the tipping point to go from near expansion to exponential growth of IQOS, because then the consumers or the adopters of IQOS become the ambassadors of the product and the brand.

解釋是——分配是基於這樣一個事實，正如我在投資者日所說，我們試圖盡快達到 2% 或 3% 的市場份額，我們認為這是從接近擴張到指數增長的轉折點IQOS 的增長，因為那時消費者或 IQOS 的採用者成為產品和品牌的大使。

So it's market-specific, and the amount of reallocation you do is also based on the competitive environment, the consumer dynamics and so on and so forth.

所以它是特定於市場的，你所做的重新分配的數量也是基於競爭環境、消費者動態等等。

So there is no rule of thumb.

所以沒有經驗法則。

And I don't remember exactly how much money we reallocated in Japan, but there has been significant shift of things that are very measurable like your direct marketing budget.

而且我不記得我們在日本重新分配了多少錢，但是像您的直接營銷預算這樣非常可衡量的事情已經發生了重大變化。

But also that's where it becomes a little bit more difficult is how really the time of a field force that exists is allocated between the two categories.

但這也是變得有點困難的地方，即存在的現場力量的時間實際上是如何在兩個類別之間分配的。

In many markets, as I said, you need incremental ground forces during the initial period well and above the field forces we have.

正如我所說，在許多市場中，你需要在初始階段增加地面部隊，遠遠超過我們擁有的現場部隊。

Because we have seen very clearly that the more people you put on the ground the faster the reaction.

因為我們已經看得很清楚了，你放在地上的人越多，反應越快。

As we see in Italy now, as we see in Switzerland now more resources, in Italy we have doubled the market share in just 10 weeks because now we have the resources on the ground.

正如我們現在在意大利看到的那樣，正如我們現在在瑞士看到的更多資源一樣，在意大利，我們在短短 10 週內就將市場份額翻了一番，因為現在我們擁有實地資源。

So that's the rule of thumb.

所以這是經驗法則。

But now as of the overall costs, clearly in 2017 we will be above our 1% to 3% more or less target because of all these deployments.

但現在就總體成本而言，由於所有這些部署，我們顯然在 2017 年或多或少會超過 1% 到 3% 的目標。

But are all in the guidance, by the way.

不過都在指導下，順便說一句。

We have said -- it's Jacek here -- we had said that we look to grow the revenues above the 6% or the upper end of the current grow (inaudible), and clearly still we're lifting EPS.

我們已經說過——這裡是 Jacek——我們曾說過我們希望收入增長超過 6% 或當前增長的上限（聽不清），顯然我們仍在提高每股收益。

So you can see that we are not diluting the margins.

所以你可以看到我們沒有稀釋利潤。

I think we should look for the year when we will have a small but still the margin expansion, operating profit margin expansion not to the tune which we had in 2016.

我認為我們應該尋找利潤率小幅擴張但營業利潤率擴張不及 2016 年的那一年。

Andre mentioned that there is a device sales in this revenue and for the time being the yield, the negative margins.

安德烈提到，在這個收入中有一個設備銷售和暫時的收益率，負利潤率。

So that is, obviously, dilutive, but the HeatSticks and still the performance of a combustible with 6% pricing should allow us for some margin expansion, say 10, 20 basis points.

因此，這顯然是稀釋性的，但 HeatSticks 以及定價為 6% 的可燃物的性能應該允許我們擴大利潤率，比如 10、20 個基點。

We will see how the year unfolds.

我們將看到這一年如何展開。

Okay.

好的。

Then just one other follow-up question if I could which is that if you were able to get approval as a modified risk tobacco product in the US in 2017, I'm just curious would that would mean to you in other international markets, in Japan?

如果可以的話，還有一個後續問題是，如果你能夠在 2017 年在美國獲得作為改良風險煙草產品的批准，我很好奇這對你在其他國際市場意味著什麼，在日本？

I'm obviously getting to could you make a or would you make a claim and would that for some reason cause you to accelerate your investments in IQOS?

我顯然要問你能不能提出索賠，或者你會提出索賠，這會不會因為某種原因導致你加速對 IQOS 的投資？

First of all, it is highly unlikely we will get approval for MRTP in 2017.

首先，我們極不可能在 2017 年獲得 MRTP 批准。

As you know, the FDA gave a guidance that they may take X days but that may take more time.

如您所知，FDA 給出的指導意見可能需要 X 天，但也可能需要更多時間。

What we believe is more within the 2017 real is the product authorization for the US market without claims.

我們認為2017年更真實的是美國市場的產品授權，沒有索賠。

And we will submit that application, PMTA application, in the first quarter this year.

我們將在今年第一季度提交該申請，即 PMTA 申請。

Now irrespective of the approval in the US, the FDA approval obviously helps the credibility internationally but it doesn't apply for Japan.

現在不管在美國的批准如何，FDA的批准顯然有助於國際上的可信度，但它不適用於日本。

In Japan and other markets our claims structure, as we said, follows the local legislation but also the conclusion of our own science.

正如我們所說，在日本和其他市場，我們的索賠結構遵循當地立法，但也遵循我們自己的科學結論。

So what we communicate to the consumers is driven by local laws and our own science.

因此，我們向消費者傳達的信息是由當地法律和我們自己的科學驅動的。

And the FDA cannot be applied to displace it.

並且不能應用 FDA 來取代它。

But, obviously, it will add credibility to the entire scientific dossier, and that's why it is an important.

但是，很明顯，它會增加整個科學檔案的可信度，這就是為什麼它很重要。

Okay, thank you for your time.

好的，謝謝你的時間。

Vivien Azer, Cowen and Company.

Vivien Azer, Cowen and Company。

Hi, good morning.

早上好。

So I was hoping to get a little bit more color on your go-to-market execution on IQOS for some of the newer markets that you've entered.

因此，我希望對您進入的一些新市場的 IQOS 上市執行有更多的了解。

So perhaps Canada if you could comment on the excise tax structure, retail footprint and relative pricing versus combustibles.

因此，如果您可以就消費稅結構、零售足跡以及相對於可燃物的相對定價發表評論，那麼也許是加拿大。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

First of all, the first variable is clearly what marketing frequency you have.

首先，第一個變量顯然是你的營銷頻率。

What we learned as I said for many markets is in the initial phase until you get this critical mass you need the right amount of people on the ground that talk to the consumers, explain the product and help the consumers in the conversion.

正如我所說，我們從許多市場中學到的是在初始階段，直到你達到這個臨界質量，你需要適量的人在現場與消費者交談，解釋產品並幫助消費者進行轉換。

And as a general principle as of this year we will start introducing digital tools -- we are a little bit too manual and labor intensive and we will introduce where the law allows digital tools to help the conversion.

作為今年的一般原則，我們將開始引入數字工具——我們有點過於手工和勞動密集型，我們將介紹法律允許數字工具幫助轉換的地方。

And that is something we do everywhere but the speed by which IQOS switching occurs depends also on the freedoms we have in a market.

這是我們在任何地方都做的事情，但 IQOS 切換發生的速度也取決於我們在市場上的自由度。

In Canada you have very limited ability to communicate with consumers under the current regime.

在加拿大，在現行製度下，您與消費者溝通的能力非常有限。

So Canada is going to take some time.

所以加拿大需要一些時間。

Clearly the tax we received is more favorable than the tax levy on cigarettes in Canada.

很明顯，我們收到的稅比加拿大的香菸稅更優惠。

And pricing, I don't exactly remember because it depends on the state of Canada in which we go, but I think in any case we will be at the premium end of the market.

和定價，我不完全記得，因為它取決於我們去的加拿大州，但我認為無論如何我們將處於市場的高端。

Yes, we are premium like Belmont price.

是的，我們像貝爾蒙特價格一樣優質。

But in Canada it varies from province to province, so I can't make a general comment.

但是在加拿大，每個省份都不一樣，所以我不能做一個籠統的評論。

Okay, did I answer your question?

好的，我回答你的問題了嗎？

You did.

你做到了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

If I could just follow up, so of the 20 markets is there any market where you have not gotten a favorable tax treatment?

如果我可以跟進，那麼在這 20 個市場中，有沒有哪個市場沒有獲得優惠稅收待遇？

No.

不。

Very good.

很好。

(multiple speakers)

（多個揚聲器）

Just one on the combustibles if I could.

如果可以的話，就一個關於可燃物的。

In the EU you guys called out the anniversarying of a benefit from immigration as well as illicit.

在歐盟，你們呼籲紀念移民和非法移民的好處。

How do we think about full-year industry volumes for the EU?

我們如何看待歐盟的全年工業量？

And I think you called out some softness on the comps in the first half, but order of magnitude much is one half versus two half going to differ do you think?

而且我認為你在上半場對 comps 提出了一些軟化，但數量級是一半與二分之一你認為會有所不同嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

For the moment we assume that EU will go to a secular 2% to 3% decline rate this year.

目前，我們假設歐盟今年的長期增長率將達到 2% 至 3%。

Last year we assume the same, we had a positive surprise, but logically it should go there because we don't have the one-offs of immigration and so on.

去年我們假設相同，我們有一個積極的驚喜，但從邏輯上講它應該去那裡，因為我們沒有一次性的移民等等。

And, yes, the employment is getting better in Europe.

而且，是的，歐洲的就業狀況正在好轉。

The outlook in GDP growth is moderately better.

GDP 增長前景略有改善。

But when you look at the whole thing I have to assume at this stage a 2% to 3% decline, and that's what we are working with.

但是當你看整個事情時，我必須假設在這個階段下降 2% 到 3%，這就是我們正在努力的。

Now just for your own, on this quarter comparison don't forget that in the European Union countries we have the implementation of the Tobacco Products Directive.

現在就你自己而言，在這個季度的比較中，不要忘記在歐盟國家我們實施了煙草產品指令。

And there are cut-off days for certain products, for 10s, for 20s, for 19s.

某些產品有截止日期，10 秒，20 秒，19 秒。

So it has been a little bit of a rocky thing with trade loadings and unloadings which should ease now as we move into this year.

因此，貿易裝卸有點不穩定，隨著我們進入今年，現在應該會有所緩解。

So, yes, there will be some unfavorable comparisons at the beginning of the year but that's how I see EU, we will see as the year unfolds.

所以，是的，年初會有一些不利的比較，但這就是我對歐盟的看法，我們會隨著時間的推移看到。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

邁克爾·拉弗里，里昂證券。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I just wanted to touch on the Philippines.

我只想談談菲律賓。

We know about a week or two ago your local competitor took some pricing and you took pricing in the fourth quarter on Marlboro.

我們知道大約一兩週前，您當地的競爭對手進行了一些定價，而您在第四季度對萬寶路進行了定價。

Mix has been a big driver there, obviously lifting with Marlboro share up.

Mix 一直是其中的重要推動力，顯然提升了萬寶路的份額。

What do price gaps look like now and can you sustain that trading-up momentum over the course of this year?

現在的價格差距是什麼樣的，你能在今年保持這種上漲勢頭嗎？

Look, our major competitor increased prices but they are implementing also some discounting schemes.

看，我們的主要競爭對手提高了價格，但他們也在實施一些折扣計劃。

So we still need to see the prices flowing through to the market.

所以我們仍然需要看到價格流向市場。

Plus as you know there is still a lot of non-tax paid volumes and fake stamps on the market, but I am very encouraged that the government seems to start moving in this direction but still we need to see it happening.

另外，如您所知，市場上仍有大量未繳稅的郵票和假郵票，但令我感到非常鼓舞的是，政府似乎開始朝著這個方向邁進，但我們仍然需要看到它的發生。

Now we increased the price of Marlboro and the per-stick price is theoretically [PHP3.50].

現在萬寶路漲價了，理論上每支價格是[PHP3.50]。

In some places it went up to [PHP4].

在某些地方它上升到 [PHP4]。

We have to assume there will be some impact on Marlboro initially, but so far it looks better than what we anticipated.

我們不得不假設最初會對萬寶路產生一些影響，但到目前為止，它看起來比我們預期的要好。

So I think the up-trading may stop for a while at the beginning but it will continue over time because still the price gaps are very attractive.

所以我認為向上交易可能會在開始時停止一段時間，但隨著時間的推移它會繼續，因為價格差距仍然非常有吸引力。

The problem in the Philippines that we had in 2016 in terms of low end of the market volumes will continue.

我們在 2016 年在菲律賓遇到的低端市場銷量問題將繼續存在。

Because with the implementation of our price increase per-stick prices still went up at the bottom end, and these are pretty substantial increases for low income consumers.

因為隨著我們的價格上漲的實施，每根價格仍然在底部上漲，對於低收入消費者來說，這是相當可觀的漲幅。

The good news is we don't see smoking incidence decrease, but we see a decrease in sticks per day which means that once we get up stability now as we go to the excise tax convergence of the tiers done, I hope that over time, probably towards the end of this year, we will start seeing some stability and then daily consumption will start coming up to the previous level.

好消息是我們沒有看到吸煙率下降，但我們看到每天的菸支減少，這意味著一旦我們現在開始穩定，因為我們要完成已完成的層級的消費稅收斂，我希望隨著時間的推移，可能到今年年底，我們將開始看到一些穩定，然後日常消費將開始回升到以前的水平。

But we have to assume conservatively at least for the Philippines the trend is not going to change in terms of volume for the year.

但我們必須保守地假設，至少對於菲律賓而言，這一趨勢在今年的銷量方面不會改變。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Then on IQOS you've touched on some of the capacity constraints.

然後在 IQOS 上你已經觸及了一些容量限制。

Sorry if I missed this, can you just revisit, I believe you'd been saying you thought that those capacity constraints would ease at the end of this quarter.

抱歉，如果我錯過了這個，你能不能重溫一下，我相信你一直在說你認為這些產能限制會在本季度末緩解。

Is that still the case?

現在還是這樣嗎？

Yes.

是的。

But we start the year with 15 billion installed capacity which if everything goes right that gives you mathematically the equivalent of 1.2 billion per month.

但我們以 150 億裝機容量開始了這一年，如果一切順利，從數學上講，這相當於每月 12 億裝機容量。

And we ramp up the capacity to 50 billion at the year-end but the average for the year is something around 32 billion given all these machines that are being installed and assuming the plan goes into perfection.

我們在年底將產能提高到 500 億，但考慮到所有這些正在安裝的機器並假設該計劃正在完善，今年的平均產能約為 320 億。

So that's basically a variable.

所以這基本上是一個變量。

So we will have some constraints still in the first quarter, obviously.

因此，顯然，我們在第一季度仍然會有一些限制。

And we start getting more capacity as we move on and we have the max capacity, obviously, in the fourth quarter of the year.

隨著我們繼續前進，我們開始獲得更多產能，顯然，我們在今年第四季度擁有最大產能。

And that will dictate, obviously, the pace of sales, as well.

顯然，這也將決定銷售速度。

We talked to consumers in Korea and Hong Kong who are getting product from Japan, obviously, because you haven't launched there yet.

我們與韓國和香港的消費者進行了交談，他們正在從日本購買產品，顯然，因為你們還沒有在那裡推出。

But do you expect to move into those markets sooner than later?

但您是否希望早日進入這些市場？

Do you have any sense of what timing that might look like?

你知道這可能是什麼樣的時機嗎？

Yes we have a plan, obviously.

是的，我們顯然有一個計劃。

There are more markets where consumers are getting a product from other places.

消費者從其他地方購買產品的市場越來越多。

So --

所以 -

Okay, so, yes, I think Korea has very good potential given the characteristics of consumers in the market.

好的，所以，是的，考慮到市場消費者的特點，我認為韓國具有很好的潛力。

And eventually we will be in these markets, but appreciate I can't say exactly when.

最終我們將進入這些市場，但我不能確切地說出具體時間。

No, that makes sense.

不，這是有道理的。

And then just one last one on Indonesia.

然後是關於印度尼西亞的最後一個。

We've seen the leaf crop there this year be hurt by bad weather.

我們已經看到今年那裡的葉作物受到惡劣天氣的影響。

It looks like it's set to rebound very strongly next year.

看起來它明年將強勁反彈。

I know you have some ability to smooth, you at least have big inventories in leaf stocks.

我知道你有一些平滑的能力，你至少有大量的葉庫存。

How much can you smooth any potential impact from the expensive leaf that might be coming through now?

你能在多大程度上消除昂貴的葉子可能帶來的潛在影響？

Is that any headwind there or do you have different ways to offset that?

那裡有什麼逆風嗎？或者你有不同的方法來抵消它嗎？

It's more the class than the leaf, the leaf as well.

它比葉子更像類，葉子也是。

I think we are able to amortize these shocks now because we have sufficient inventory.

我認為我們現在能夠緩解這些衝擊，因為我們有足夠的庫存。

It's a bit tighter on the leaf, a bit better on the class --

它在葉子上更緊一點，在類上更好一點——

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Jon Leinster, Berenberg.

喬恩倫斯特，貝倫貝格。

Hi, good morning gentlemen.

嗨，先生們早上好。

A couple a few questions if I can.

如果可以的話，問幾個問題。

Just a very quick accounting one.

只是一個非常快速的會計。

When you put in the $733 million of sales, is that counting all of the IQOS HeatSticks and devices at full price with the discounts going through as a cost of sales or is that actually the net realizations?

當你計算 7.33 億美元的銷售額時，是將所有 IQOS HeatSticks 和設備的全價計算在內，並將折扣作為銷售成本計算，還是實際上是淨實現？

It's the net realization.

這是淨實現。

Discounts going to consumers and to the trade will be deducted from, obviously, from the revenues.

顯然，消費者和貿易的折扣將從收入中扣除。

You have on a net basis net after allowances.

你有扣除津貼後的淨額。

Okay, and just out of interest on the fourth-quarter sales, how much of that was actually do you think sold on discount?

好吧，出於對第四季度銷售額的興趣，您認為其中有多少實際上是打折銷售的？

Depends by the market.

取決於市場。

There are different schemes.

有不同的方案。

Devices they were all sold at the promotional price and a discount.

設備 他們都以促銷價和折扣價出售。

And the HeatSticks you will have to go market by market, in the different stages they might run the different schemes.

而 HeatSticks 則必須逐個市場進行銷售，在不同的階段，它們可能會運行不同的方案。

Usually market at the beginning will have some small discount on the HeatSticks and then depends on the market situation at the full price (multiple speakers)

通常一開始市場對HeatSticks會有一些小的折扣，然後看市場情況全價（多喇叭）

The market full price.

市場全價。

In many markets you are given discount.

在許多市場上，您都可以獲得折扣。

The HeatSticks it's illegal by legislation, so it's most of the discount is --

根據立法，HeatSticks 是非法的，所以它的大部分折扣是——

The bulk is from the devices.

大部分來自設備。

It's the devices.

是設備。

And that's why I caution everybody not to take this to the bottom line straight at the same margin as the rest because it's negative.

這就是為什麼我告誡大家不要把它直接帶到底線，因為它是負面的。

But it pays off very quickly, it's pretty obvious I mean.

但它很快就會得到回報，我的意思是很明顯。

And then just today the French put out their pricelist today and, obviously, there's been some quite big tax increases going through.

然後就在今天，法國人今天公佈了他們的價目表，顯然，已經進行了一些相當大的增稅。

And yourself and one of your big competitors didn't change prices at all.

而你自己和你的一個主要競爭對手根本沒有改變價格。

What was the thinking behind that?

這背後的想法是什麼？

I cannot comment on pricing.

我無法評論定價。

You appreciate that.

你很感激。

The only thing I can tell you is in France given the structure of the excise tax that is all ad valorem essentially it's not a big deal because the trade-off between volume and pricing is very often neutral.

我唯一可以告訴你的是在法國，鑑於消費稅的結構都是從價稅，這基本上沒什麼大不了的，因為數量和定價之間的權衡通常是中性的。

And that's the only comment I can make, at least temporarily.

這是我唯一能發表的評論，至少暫時如此。

I thought it was a turnover tax on the actual companies.

我認為這是對實際公司徵收的流轉稅。

(multiple speakers)

（多個揚聲器）

Which works like an ad valorem component.

其工作方式類似於從價組件。

Yes (multiple speakers) of the distributors net of excise taxes.

是（多個揚聲器）分銷商扣除消費稅。

That boils down to a pass-on of around EUR0.18, euro cents.

這歸結為約 0.18 歐元，歐分的傳遞。

EUR0.18, okay.

0.18 歐元，好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Adam Spielman, Citi.

亞當斯皮爾曼，花旗。

We lost Adam.

我們失去了亞當。

There is no response from that line.

該線路沒有響應。

At this time I will return the call to management for any additional or closing remarks.

此時，我會將電話回复給管理層，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Well, thank you very much.

好的，謝謝。

That concludes the call.

通話到此結束。

If you have any follow-up questions you can contact the investor relations team.

如果您有任何後續問題，可以聯繫投資者關係團隊。

We are currently in Switzerland and the next presentation will be at the CAGNY Conference on February 22 in Florida.

我們目前在瑞士，下一次演示將在 2 月 22 日在佛羅里達州舉行的 CAGNY 會議上進行。

Thank you again.

再次感謝你。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you for participating in the Philip Morris International 2016 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings conference call.

感謝您參加菲莫國際 2016 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。