菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Philip Morris International fourth-quarter 2015 year-end earnings conference call.

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer question.

(Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community.

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.

Please go ahead, sir.

Welcome and thank you for joining us.

Earlier today we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2015 fourth-quarter and full-year results.

You may access the release on our website at www.PMI.com or the PMI investor relations app.

During our call today, we will be talking about results for the fourth quarter and full year 2015, comparing them to the same period in 2014 unless otherwise stated.

A glossary of terms, adjustments, and other calculations, as well as reconciliations to US GAAP measures, are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

Reduced risk products, or RRPs, is the term we use to refer to products with the potential to reduce individual risk and population harm in comparison to smoking cigarettes.

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.

I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

It is now my pleasure to introduce Andre Calantzopoulos, our Chief Executive Officer.

Jacek Olczak, our Chief Financial Officer, will join Andre for the question-and-answer period.

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen.

2015 was an excellent year for PMI.

Moderating declines in cigarette industry volume, notably in the EU region, coupled with market share gains enabled us to record a full-year organic cigarette shipment volume decline of only 1%, our best performance since 2012.

Of particular note were the performances of Marlborough and L&M, which grew cigarette volumes by 0.9% and 3.9%, respectively.

Strong pricing across all regions, combined with substantially lower unfavorable volume mix compared to recent years, resulted in net revenue and adjusted OCI growth, excluding currency and acquisitions, of 5.8% and 6.6%, respectively.

Despite significant incremental investments behind both iQOS and our cigarette brand portfolio announced last July and disclosed in today's press release, our adjusted OCI margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 42.6%, excluding currency and acquisitions.

The increase was driven by EEMA and Latin America and Canada regions.

Our adjusted diluted EPS, excluding currency, grew by a very strong 12%, at the high end of the raised guidance range that we reaffirmed last November.

The strengthening of the US dollar against virtually all of our key operating currencies was an unprecedented headwind for our business in 2015 and resulted in a full-year adverse currency impact of $1.20 on our adjusted diluted EPS.

In the fourth quarter, our organic cigarette volume declined by 2.4% due to lower cigarette industry volumes and lower market share, notably in the Asia region.

Our cigarette volume was impacted by a one-time distributor inventory adjustment in Russia related to supply chain optimization.

Excluding this adjustment, our quarterly volume decline was in line with that of the full year.

Net revenues increased by 4% excluding currency, with favorable pricing across all regions more than offsetting unfavorable volume mix, mainly the EEMA and Latin America & Canada regions.

As previously communicated, our incremental investments in 2015 were concentrated in the fourth quarter.

This resulted in currency-neutral adjusted OCI and adjusted diluted EPS declines in the quarter.

Our full-year 2015 results confirm that our business fundamentals are strong and the incremental investments that we made throughout the year, and in the fourth quarter in particular, should further reinforce our momentum in 2016.

Our reported diluted EPS guidance for 2016, at prevailing exchange rates, is a range of $4.25 to $4.35 versus $4.42 in 2015 and includes an unfavorable currency impact of approximately $0.60.

This guidance represents a growth rate, excluding currency, of approximately 10% to 12% compared to an adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42 in 2015.

This reflects a currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth rate above our mid to long-term algorithm.

Importantly, this guidance does not include any share repurchases.

We'll revisit the potential for repurchases as the year unfolds depending on the currency environment.

The $0.60 of unfavorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, included in our 2016 guidance is driven primarily by the Argentine peso, Indonesian rupee, Japanese yen, and Russian ruble.

These four currencies account for around 60% of the total impact.

We have currently hedged approximately 72% of our 2016 forecast sales to Japan, which, at prevailing exchange rates, translates to an effective rate of JPY118 to the US dollar versus JPY110 in 2015.

Pricing was the key driver of our full-year 2015 financial performance.

We recorded a total pricing variance of $2.1 billion, supported by strong contributions from all four regions.

As a reminder, this variance includes an exceptional gain in Korea related to inventories built ahead of the January 2015 excise tax increase, which will not recur in 2016.

This year, we anticipate a pricing variance of around 6% of our 2015 revenues.

Our performance in 2015 was underpinned by an improving cigarette industry volume trend and continued market share momentum.

We estimate that international cigarette industry volume, excluding China and the US, declined by 2.4% in 2015, a further moderation compared to the declines in 2013 and 2014.

For this year we forecast a decline of 2% to 2.5% on the same basis.

Our continued market share momentum in 2015 is clearly demonstrated on this slide with international share, excluding China and the US, up by 0.2 points to 28.7% and share growth in the EU, EEMA, and Latin America & Canada regions.

Our share in the Asia region was stable.

Marlboro was a key driver of market share momentum in 2015, increasing its international share, excluding China and the US, by 0.2 points to 9.6%.

The brand had growing or stable share in all four regions and continued to benefit from the rollout of Architecture 2.0, which is now approaching 100 markets worldwide.

Importantly, our 2015 share in the top 30 PMI OCI markets grew by 0.7 points to 38%, with share up or essentially flat in 20 of these markets.

This underscores the positive momentum of our business across the majority of our most profitable market.

While pricing and market share gains are the foundation of our top-line growth, we remain focused on effectively managing our cost base.

Our mid-term targeted annual cost base increase is 1% to 3%, excluding RRPs and currency.

In 2015, we decided to deploy additional investments, some of which will not recur in 2016, to support the strong momentum of our cigarette brand portfolio and accelerate the geographic expansion of iQOS.

This resulted in a total cost base increase, excluding currency, of 3.6% excluding RRPs or 5.3% including RRPs.

In 2016, we expect our total cost base, including RRPs, to increase by approximately 1% excluding currency, reflecting productivity and cost-saving programs and also held by the moderating prices for key inputs such as tobacco leaf, clove, and non-tobacco materials.

Let me know discuss our performance in key geographies, beginning with the EU region.

Following declines of 7.3% and 3.1% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, there was a further moderation in the total cigarette industry volume decline to 0.9% to 2015.

We attribute the moderation to improving economies, notably southern Europe; a decline in the prevalence of illicit trade; less out switching to the fine cut category; and a lower prevalence of e-vapor products.

Our positive cigarette share momentum in the region continued in 2015, with fourth-quarter and full-year share up by 0.3 points and 0.1 point, respectively.

In the fourth quarter, our share increased in five of the six largest markets by cigarette industry volume, demonstrating the breadth of our shares trend.

As we have anticipated, our share in Italy was adversely impacted by the decline of Marlboro following its crossing of the EUR5 per pack price point in the first quarter of 2015.

Marlboro, L&M, and Chesterfield further reinforced their positions as the region's top three cigarette industry brands by volume for the second consecutive year.

Full-year market share for Marlboro increased by 0.2 points to 18.9%, driven by strong performances in France, Germany, and Spain.

Share for L&M increased by 0.1 points to 6.9%, while Chesterfield grew by 0.2 share points to 5.8%.

The moderating cigarette industry volume decline, coupled with our market share gains and strong pricing, resulted in adjusted OCI growth, excluding currency and acquisitions, of 4.6% in the EU region in 2015.

This marked the region's first adjusted OCI increase on the same basis since 2009.

In 2016, we forecast mid single-digit currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth in the region.

I will now turn to Russia, the largest market in our EEMA region, where estimated cigarette industry volume declined by 8.4% in the fourth quarter and 6.2% for the full year.

The declines were mainly due to significant excise tax-driven retail price increases, which we estimate averaged more than 20% year over year, as well as lower consumer purchasing power.

Our full-year 2015 market share increased by 0.9 points to 28.4%, driven mainly by low price Bond Street and super-low price Next, which benefited from adult smoker down-trading and a wider distribution, particularly in the eastern part of the country.

Importantly, Parliament was up by 0.2 share points, despite the overall premium segment decline of 0.7 points.

In January this year, the government implemented its planned 2016 excise tax increase, resulting in an average tax pass-on of around RUB10 per pack, or 14%, on an industry-weighted average basis.

In anticipation, we announced retail selling price increases across the majority of our portfolio of RUB5 per pack last November and a further RUB5 per pack this January, with the most recent increase likely to appear at retail in the second quarter.

Estimated cigarette industry volume in Turkey grew by 7.8% in the fourth quarter and 9% for the full year.

This exceptional growth was driven mainly by a significant reduction in the prevalence of illicit trade, which declined by over 5 percentage points to around 14% in 2015.

Our market share in Turkey has strengthened with three quarters of sequential growth.

Fourth-quarter share increased by 0.3 points to 44.2% and was driven by the superb performance of Marlboro, up by 1.2 points to 9.9%.

Marlboro shipment volume increased by 20.6% in the quarter.

In January, the government increased the specific excise tax and the minimum excise tax, while leaving the ad valorem rate unchanged, representing a further improvement in the excise tax structure.

This resulted in a pass-on of around TRY0.40 per pack at the retail level.

We implemented the retail selling price increase of TRY1 per pack across the majority of our portfolio, thus enhancing unit margin.

I will now touch on our Asia region, beginning with Indonesia, where estimated cigarette industry volume was stable in 2015, in line with our forecast and primarily due to the soft economy.

While market share in the fourth quarter declined by 1 point to 34.3%, reflecting the impact of retail price increases on our machine-made kretek brand taken in advance of the January 2016 excise tax increase, our full-year market share grew slightly to 35%.

On an industry-weighted average basis, the 2016 excise tax increase is around 15%.

Despite the muted performance of the total market last year, we remain very optimistic about the profit growth opportunities in this key market thanks to its growing adult population and rising income levels.

In the Philippines, price gaps narrowed further in the fourth quarter, following price increases at the bottom of the market.

The gap between Marlboro and the super-low price brands of our primary local competitor now stands at around PHP1 per cigarette, a narrowing of PHP0.50 per cigarette, or 33%, since December 2014.

The improved price gaps have been a key driver of our strong share performance.

Based on Nielsen retail audit data, our full-year 2015 share increased by 1.4 points to 73.4%.

Marlboro was the primary driver of the share gain, increasing by an impressive 2.7 points to 21.1%.

Fortune also gained share, growing by 0.7 points to 31.1%.

Marlboro shipment volume increased by 18.8% in 2015 and drove favorable mix.

Encouragingly, we continue to improve profitability in this important market.

In Japan, cigarette industry volume declined by 2.1% in 2015.

This was less than what we had anticipated, due mainly to trade inventory build-up for competitors' recent new launches.

Our cigarette market share performance was clearly below our expectations.

Share declined by 0.6 points to 25.3% in 2015, due primarily to competitors' offerings in the new differentiated menthol taste segment.

Nevertheless, we remain confident in the long-term outlook from our cigarette brand portfolio in Japan.

Turning to our Reduced-Risk Product portfolio, let me briefly highlight the progress that we made in 2015 on the commercialization of iQOS.

During the year, we expanded the geographic presence of iQOS in our 2014 city launch markets, with the first wave of expansion in Japan reaching over 60% of the adult smoker population and the initial expansion in Italy beyond Milan to Modena, Rome, and Turin.

We also launched iQOS in major cities across Switzerland and commenced city launches in Bucharest, Lisbon, and Moscow.

By the end of 2016, we expect iQOS to be present in key cities in around 20 markets globally.

In Japan, which is by far are more advanced iQOS launch market in terms of geographic and adult smoker coverage, we estimate that there were over 130,000 fully or predominantly converted iQOS users by the end of 2015.

In the last week of December we achieved an estimated offtake share for Marlboro HeatSticks of 1.1% in the expansion area and 1.7% in Tokyo.

Importantly, our weekly offtake shares have grown steadily since the expansion began in September.

Please note that offtake share represents retail sales volume for HeatSticks as a percentage of the total estimated retail selling volume for cigarettes and HeatSticks within a given geographic area.

I look forward to sharing further the scientific and commercial progress that we have made with iQOS during our presentation at the CAGNY conference later this month.

I will now cover our free cash flow, which increased by over $300 million in 2015 to reach $6.9 billion.

This was a remarkable achievement considering the adverse currency impact of $1.9 billion on our net earnings and was fueled by important working capital initiatives.

As a reminder, the proceeds from the Sampoerna rights issue are not included in our free cash flow.

In 2016, we forecast free cash flow broadly in line with last year's level, again despite the anticipated adverse currency headwind at prevailing exchange rate.

We remain focused on rewarding our shareholders generously, with the dividend currently serving as the primary use of our free cash flow.

Last September we increased our annual dividend for the eighth consecutive year since the spin in 2008, representing a total increase of approximately 122% at a compound annual growth rate of 12%.

Our dividend yield at the end of last week was 4.5%.

This is very attractive in comparison to the yields of our peer group companies.

In conclusion, 2015 was an excellent year for PMI, reflecting improved cigarette industry volume trends and very robust business fundamentals.

Our superior cigarette brand portfolio, supported by a unique commercial organization, is driving strong pricing and continued market share gains.

Marlboro is performing extremely well with the continued rollout of the 2.0 Architecture driving volume and share growth.

We are very excited by our progress with the commercialization of iQOS, which is underscored by our favorable HeatStick offtake share momentum in Japan.

Our strong free cash flow continues to support our generous dividend.

Finally, the outlook for our business remains strong.

On a currency-neutral basis, our 2016 EPS guidance reflects a growth rate of approximately 10% to 12% versus 2015 adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42.

Thank you.

Jacek and I will now be happy to answer your questions.

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

Good morning.

Thank you for the question.

I just had two questions about pricing.

I guess first, Andre, I wanted to ask you about the pricing environment in Japan since Japan Tobacco has requested a price increase on Mevius.

So I was wondering whether you've made any similar requests on your portfolio or if you can talk us through how you are thinking about the opportunity there.

Okay.

Clearly, the move from Japan Tobacco is encouraging, but you appreciate I cannot make any further comment on pricing in Japan, for obvious reasons.

Okay, but that, I guess, would confirm that you haven't made any formal requests yet?

I didn't say that.

Regardless of what your intentions might be.

Okay.

Then I guess just a broader question then.

Your comments about the expectation for a 6% pricing variance this year implies about $1.6 billion in pricing, a bit below the $1.8 billion that we would typically think of as being sort of a mid-term target.

And I know that Korea accounts for a portion of that gap.

But if we exclude that, is there more an issue of rounding, or do you see the potential for a more moderate level of pricing across the industry this year in light of macroeconomic weakness?

Matt, as you rightly said, Korea is the biggest swing because it swings about almost 1 point of pricing variance year-to-year compared to our previous years' revenues.

Apart that, there is nothing particular here that we should be reading.

So we are very confident about the pricing environment; I think it's very positive.

And the excise tax environment is also positive, so not much change compared to the previous year.

Okay.

Then I guess one other quick follow-up.

Just within Indonesia, you mentioned the impact of crossing some critical pricing thresholds during the fourth quarter.

Is that a temporary price gap issue or something that could linger for a few quarters?

I think this is temporary because sooner or later others are crossing the critical points.

Now that had more impact for us in this quarter.

There is another phenomenon that is -- had a lot of increased activity, I would say, towards the end of the year in Indonesia, which is a number of competitive offerings that sell essentially 20 sticks per pack at the price of 16.

Now these propositions typically are not viable longer term, because, if you remember, the excise tax in Indonesia is specific and on a per-stick basis.

But, temporarily, you have some distortions because of these launches that should ease during the year.

So that's essentially how -- what happened in Indonesia in the quarter.

Okay.

Thanks and congratulations on the results this year.

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Thank you.

Andre, I wanted to get a little bit more color on the Russian market.

Obviously the shipment number in the fourth quarter was negatively impacted by inventory movement, but I think your share also was a little bit softer sequentially.

So just wondering what's going on competitively; what are you seeing in terms of down-trading situations in terms of the consumers?

Then, if you look out for 2016, your view in terms of how the industry volume would look like in Russia.

First of all, let's start with this inventory that has a little bit distorted the numbers of the fourth quarter overall.

So for PMI, essentially, it is a one-off adjustment because we decided to have our own warehouses in certain parts of the country, rather than our distributor, in order to facilitate distribution.

And on top of it, it helps working capital.

So that is the reason we implemented, but there is no swings in there.

That's one-off.

In terms of what's happening in the market, in terms of total market, we appreciate it's a bit difficult to forecast.

Last year we had forecasted that total market will decline by 9%.

We ended up much better.

We forecast again, given the [magnitude] of the price increases another 9% this year.

If we come out better, we will all be very happy.

That's how I see the market.

Now in terms of down-trading, clearly there is down-trading.

It's not dramatic.

But we see, if we look at the year, 2% share shifting from the mid segment and premium segment to essentially the low price segment.

Not the super-low, which is fairly stable.

And we gain share in both premium, low, and super-low segments, so I think we are well positioned overall in this environment.

Now, again, Russia, you know the economy is a bit weak.

The ruble has devalued.

But overall I think, in terms of portfolio position, we are in a very good place and we have already taken pricing, so I feel pretty good about Russia overall.

If the ruble was a bit less volatile than it is.

Have I answered your questions?

Yes, that's helpful.

Then I guess my second question is just in terms of the investments that you made in 2015 and I guess, more specifically, lapping of that in 2016, because your comment that your cost base is still going up 1% year over year implies that the incremental investment is actually staying in the cost base in 2016 and so forth.

So are these investments that you've made in 2015 still continuing as it relates to some of these iQOS commercialization or --?

Can you just give us a little bit sense of that lapping of that and costs still going up on a year-over-year basis?

Okay.

What happened is, first of all, the direction we gave for 2016 is 1% approximately up, including Reduced-Risk Products, where we have obviously incremental spending compared to 2015.

That's the first item.

And don't forget, our target is 1% to 3% per year, excluding RRP.

Just to facilitate your understanding, I would say that 40% of the incremental spending in the last quarter is non-recurring in 2016, roughly.

And we clearly had also quite substantial incremental spending on iQOS in the fourth quarter.

Now the non-recurring items relate to obviously the implementation of the Tobacco Product Directive in 2016, but some of the costs have to happen in 2015.

It's also some restructuring that we don't report on the reported but in the normal earnings, plus some one-off items.

So in total, that is what -- how I would see it.

I hope I helped you a little bit to understand.

I guess what you're saying is that 60% of the incremental spending is still recurring, so you have that sold in 2016.

And then, obviously, the 1% total cost base going up also still includes some of the commercialization spending related to iQOS that would be more incremental in nature.

Exactly.

Okay, understood.

Thank you.

James Bushnell, Exane.

Good morning, thanks for taking my questions.

I have two, please.

The first was on pricing in Europe.

Obviously, you've had a good year there and the outlook looks good in terms of OCI growth.

But the pricing numbers seem to be a little softer than earlier in the year and I just wondered if you could give us some color around that please.

And then the second question was on the retention rates you are getting in iQOS.

The market share numbers you mentioned sound quite impressive, but I just wondered if the 30% retention rates you mentioned in the past was still consistent and how it was looking in Switzerland, for example, as well.

Thank you.

In Europe, pricing in Europe is unchanged.

What will make some difference in the quarter is, if you remember, in Germany in 2014 we took pricing in the middle of the year towards the second half and in 2015 we anticipated earlier.

So until the third quarter we had two overlapping annualization of pricing from previous year, 2014, and the pricing on 2015, which we didn't have in the last quarter.

But as you know, we announced pricing in Germany, so we are back in the normal course.

That will explain this.

Now I will give much more granularity about iQOS in CAGNY.

I don't want to steal the thunders of everybody, but the retention rates are much higher than the 30%.

And that's very encouraging in Japan, actually.

Great.

Well, look forward to CAGNY.

Thanks a lot for your answer.

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

My first question is on the EU.

How sustainable are the improved trends you've been seeing throughout the region?

And also, you continue to highlight a lower prevalence of e-vapor products in the EU, so I'm curious how much of a factor that has been to the improved combustible cig volume.

Possibly these consumers have been switching back?

Look, I hope the trends in Europe are sustainable.

While we forecast, it's early in the year, but from everything we know, including pricing, we think we may be a bit lower than last year, a bit higher decline, but well above actually our 2 to 3 secular decline that we anticipate.

So, to me, it looks fairly good in Europe.

And part of that is attributable, obviously, to a lower share of e-cigarettes, but also a little bit less illicit trade.

And I think maybe, because the economies also are improving, higher average daily consumption, which you don't see in the trends.

But that explains part of the volume clearly.

Okay, that's helpful.

And then I have a question on your share repurchase program.

If you're FX headwind stays where it's at, say, for the next couple of quarters, is this an okay level for you to resume your share repurchases?

Or do you need these headwinds to reverse to be comfortable before you would resume your buyback?

I'm just trying to get a sense of what's going to give you comfort.

Is it more visibility or a lower headwind?

Well, a lower headwind, obviously, because at current levels it makes no sense to resume share repurchases.

So once we see reversal, then we can revisit the issue.

And I hope we will see at some stage.

Yes, agreed.

If I may ask just one final quick question on your Marlboro 2.0 rollout, can you give us a sense of what percentage of your Marlboro 2.0 has rolled out?

Is it complete I guess?

And is there typically a lag before you see the full impact of this on your overall Marlboro share?

Well, I think we are seeing the impact already.

All the indications we have from the markets, where we are already one or more years in the market, is all the fundamentals are improving.

The perception is improving; the image is improving, so it has worked very well.

Actually beyond what I personally expected.

I don't know exactly weighted where we are.

In 100 markets I think 95% of the volume of Marlboro already or something like that, and everywhere we've seen positive results.

If you remember, this is not just packaging.

It's the whole communication of consumers, product improvements that were extremely well received by our consumers and also [competitors'] smokers.

(multiple speakers)

Okay.

So trends are increasing.

Thank you.

Chris Growe, Stifel.

Good morning.

Just one, first of all, in relation to volume, which did weaken a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter -- there are some unique factors that are leading to that and if you look at the strong performance in the first nine months -- as you move into 2016, you've indicated global volumes down about the same rate as they were last year.

Are there any markets in particular where we should kind of keep a watch out here?

Thinking about the big ones of like Russia and Indonesia.

Are those the ones you see being the weakest here to lead out the year, but improving throughout 2016?

Yes.

If we look overall, clearly Russia, as I said, we have to make some assumptions.

Last year we were a bit positively surprised.

I hope that's going to be the case, but we have to assume some decline in Russia.

So we assumed, as I said, around 9% at this stage.

On the positive side, clearly, we have Korea because last year we had quite impressive decline, about apples-to-apples I would say 20%, which this year hopefully we're not going to see.

Clearly, we see improving trends during the year so that's on the positive side.

We had a good upside in Turkey last year because of the illicit trade reduction, plus increased consumption.

I don't think we're going to see the same increment in Turkey this year, obviously, but as the year unfolds we will know better.

In markets where we are less impacted, clearly it's India that had a big decline last year because of excise and VAT increases.

But, as you know, we have minimal exposure there.

And Brazil.

Brazil is likely to continue this year obviously because we have a combination of VAT tax increases in certain states, because they have autonomy to decide about their VAT rates.

And also an excise tax increase that comes in two tranches in Brazil, one in May and one in December.

So that's where I see it.

Now, Indonesia, again, is a bit early days.

As you know, on one side we have a slightly soft economy.

Price, the pass-on of the excise tax in the previous years have been about 5% on price increase equivalent.

This year it's 7.5%; not dramatic, but slightly higher.

And on the other side, we have -- on the positive side, we have minimum wage increases in the range of 11%.

So how this is going to pay at the end of the year is very difficult to predict.

Conservatively we have assume some decline, but we will see if that materializes or not.

And that's for the key markets.

Okay, that was helpful.

Thank you.

I just have one quick follow-up, which is in relation to generally the global macro uncertainty, some of the risks we've seen in some of these key markets, and you have some pricing going up at a healthy rate just due to excess tax pass-along.

Are you seeing any changes in elasticity?

Is it too early to tell for that?

I'm just curious if we are seeing that weaker consumer reacting negatively to price increases in some of the key markets where you are taking those now.

Look, I must say that I am positively surprised by elasticities, rather than the opposite actually.

They come more on our side than I thought.

Now, again, some of the emerging markets we have to watch as the economy weakens, but we don't see any signs of this occurring at this stage.

And we will keep you abreast of how this is going during the year.

I think we baked this in our forecast for total markets in the year of 2 to [2.3].

(multiple speakers)

Okay, that's very encouraging.

Have you said what percentage of your pricing you have in place already for the year?

I would say about 50%, slightly higher than that at this stage.

Okay, thank you for the time.

Vivien Azer, Cowen.

Good morning.

My first question has to do with Latin America in terms of the cadence of the local currency profit growth.

The profit growth had been quite robust for the first nine months of the year and it did decelerate, so I was wondering if you could just -- and on an easy comp.

So I was wondering if you could just expand on that a little bit, please.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure --.

I'm showing that you had very strong double-digit profit growth in Latin America in the first nine months of the year that ended up resulting in full-year very robust local currency profit growth.

But in the fourth quarter your local currency profit growth was plus 1% so it's a big difference from what we have been seeing.

It's more a question of costs rather than in Argentina, and we had the Argentina devaluation as well that was reflected in the last quarter.

But in terms of pricing, there is no difference.

We had regular price increases in Argentina.

We are taking pricing in Mexico, but there is sometimes difference in timing of price increases, so that can explain some swings.

I would not be reading these quarters with religiousness, I would say.

So the cost increase in Argentina is a one-time factor, or do we think -- is that something that kind of persists for the next three quarters?

More of the -- sorry, Jacek.

It's more of the one factor.

You should also look for the Latin comparing the Q4 of the last year over 2014, because I think there was a different pattern of the shipments ahead of the tax price change in Mexico.

So this might shrink the number.

Yes.

Understood, thank you very much.

My second question has to do with the EU and with plain packaging.

You called out some investments in the UK, but you also called out negative mix shift.

So I'm wondering if you could just expand on some of the changes that you are making in terms of your go-to-market, as well as an update on the market landscape itself; if it's down-trading just in your portfolio or are we already starting to see down-trading in the UK?

Well, first of all in the UK, in particular with essentially taking back our distribution from Imperial.

So in the quarter, we had particular specific expenses due to this takeback, and double cost, obviously, because we are still paying Imperial and we are building up our own distribution.

I don't see any acceleration in down-trading in the UK in terms of trends.

And if we try to correlate this to plain packaging, clearly there's not yet plain packaging in the UK, I would say.

But you know, in general, because I get very often this question: is the UK going to become Australia?

The first thing is the impact of plain packaging on Australia down-trading is extremely difficult to estimate, if any, because it's much more a question of pricing.

Because if you remember, the margins at the bottom end of the market in Australia are still extremely high compared to the UK.

So I personally do not see an acceleration of the trends in the UK, even if eventually plain packaging is implemented, because there are already brands at very low margins at the bottom end of the market and I don't think we will see an acceleration of the trends.

Now in the EU in general, I don't see much down-trading here.

Actually the premium segment is stable and we grew share with Marlboro.

So, overall, I'm very positive about the trends in the European Union.

And do not forget that we have a portfolio with Marlboro, L&M, and Chesterfield that covers quite comfortably all price segments.

I think we are fairly confident about the prospects of the business in the European Union.

That's very helpful.

Thank you very much.

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

Good morning.

I just wanted to come back to Japan.

Can you confirm that I am reading this right?

Your market share table in the release, that's just cigarettes?

That doesn't include any sales from iQOS, that's correct?

This is correct.

So would it be closer to flat market share if iQOS were included?

And where do you see iQOS taking share from?

Is it more from your own brands or from competitors?

Well, we would see obviously some correction.

We should not forget that, in particularly in the last quarter, there were competitive introductions in the market.

And clearly, because of the support of iQOS (technical difficulty) we expanded nationally we had no activities on our portfolio of cigarettes during that quarter.

So that explains both the comparisons in terms of competitive pipelining and us focusing on iQOS, the higher decline in the share.

Now from what we know today, approximately 40% of the people that switch and adopt iQOS come from our own brands, which is higher obviously than our market share in Japan.

But I hope this is correct, because we are primarily targeting our own consumers as well, and it's Marlboro.

So that is a little bit the proportion we see today: 40% coming from our portfolio and 60% coming from competitive brands.

Does having iQOS in the market influence any of your thinking on pricing on your cigarette brands and maybe give you more flexibility there?

No, this is completely separate.

I don't see anything.

Okay.

Then just on Indonesia, the machine-made, full flavor certainly has been -- that segment has been gaining steam.

You called out machine-made in general as part of your momentum there, but certainly in full flavor you are underrepresented.

Can you be a little more specific on any of your progress there in gaining a bigger footing in that segment?

Well, we are getting some part of the segment clearly due to the success of Dji Sam Soe Magnum and Blue, which are in that segment.

We introduced last year U Bold, which is a full flavor extension of U Mild, that is doing well in the area that it was launched, and we plan to expand now nationally.

One of the things that shows the segment growing faster is that some of the introductions I described previously, 20 packs for the price of 16, are labeled as full flavor but they are more low-tar nicotine product.

So there is some artificial boosting of that segment.

But, overall, we are making progress in that segment and we have plans to further expand our presence in the segment clearly.

Okay, that's helpful, thanks.

Then just lastly on margins.

Obviously, two years in a row now you've had significant spending increases in the fourth quarter.

Obviously you've called out that some of the items are transitory, but can you give a sense of where margins go from here?

Do you expect a return to levels two years ago anytime soon?

Is there a little bit of a new normal?

What's the right way to put the margin environment in context?

As I said in my remarks, we expect OCI to grow above our 6% to 8% range next year, so obviously margins will expand.

And we expect and we're targeting margin expansion in every region.

So, yes, we will see a margin increase.

And specifically, you said in every region as well?

Yes.

All right.

Thank you very much.

Bill Marshall, Barclays.

Thank you.

My first question, I just want to talk a little bit about your cash flow and allocation.

As you highlighted in your prepared remarks, you've done a great job keeping your cash flow steady, despite the foreign currency headwinds.

If you take the midpoint of your EPS guidance for 2016 though, your dividend payout is around 95%.

So I was just curious if there's a level where you start to get a little uncomfortable and what lengths would you go to on the dividend to just ensure that you could at least maintain, if not increase it slightly, like we saw last year.

As we said, we will not decrease the dividend.

So, yes, it is a high payout ratio undoubtedly, and given currencies, it will remain high for the next couple of years, no matter what.

I hope over time as we grow profit and we grow cash flow, we will come back to more normal levels.

And if the currency stabilized, clearly we will recover much faster the return to normality I would say.

But as we always said, dividends are sacrosanct and we will go to a large extent to maintain the dividend.

That's very helpful.

Just out of curiosity, does the 65% payout ratio, over the long term obviously, is that still in play or is that something that has kind of been pushed out a little bit just given the currency situation?

This discussion about 65%, as I said, is a bit theoretical short term, because we will remain, no matter what happens, unless the currencies turn back to half of where they are today compared to dollar; turns to half.

Once that -- the situation becomes a bit more clear on the overall directionally, then we will revisit this payout ratio and we may want to modify it.

That's a kind of theoretical discussion today.

Very good, thank you.

Then just finally, I just wanted to dig a little bit into the Philippines.

It sounds like you are happy with the progress there.

Even with volume down as much as it is for the category, it sounds like you are more than happy to trade the bottom-end volume for the share gains on Marlboro at the top end.

So just curious if you could give a little bit of color on how you feel about the Philippines.

Have we turned a corner there and we're going to continue to see improvement or is there still more work to do in that market?

Thank you very much.

We definitely see improvement undoubtedly.

Pricing at the bottom has increased.

Compliance is increasing quite significantly.

The tax [stops] have helped.

And as the -- finally, as of next year, we are at the final stage of merging the two tiers, over time we have the possibility to unleash the profitability of the market also by growing Marlboro pricing.

So overall the prospects are extremely good, in my view; touch wood.

And it's pretty clear that with this kind of magnitude of price increases at the bottom, you will have some total market decline temporarily, because it's 50% price increase over a 1.5-year period.

So you would expect some market decline.

But overall I think it looks pretty good, as I said.

Very happy with what's happening in the Philippines.

Perfect, thank you very much.

Appreciate it.

Owen Bennett, Nomura.

Afternoon, guys.

Just a quick one for me.

Just wondering in terms of projections for Indonesian industry volumes next year, I know you were saying 1% to 3% over the medium term.

Just wondering if you could be a bit more specific now and for fiscal year 2016.

Thank you.

As I said, it's a slightly different forecast Indonesia at the beginning of the year.

My view is, yes, there is a little bit of pricing, higher pricing this year because of a higher tax.

Last year we had a 5% tax pass-on.

This year it was 7.5%.

The economy is a bit softer, but on the other side, minimum wages went up 11%.

So how this is going to unfold is difficult for me to forecast.

We've assumed conservatively some slight market decline.

Whether this materializes or not, we will know over the next few months as the pass-on of the prices evolves.

And that's how I see the total market for the moment.

Thanks very much.

Long term, you're right; that's the way we look at the market, 1% to 3% growth.

Cool, thank you.

Jon Leinster, Berenberg.

Good morning, gentlemen.

Just a question on costs.

I think you mentioned earlier on that there was some favorable leaf cost assets, tow acetate, and packaging.

In dollar terms, could you give some indication of where those major costs are actually headed?

I think, overall, we see stability in leaf prices.

On clove prices we have some favorability year to year, but we should not forget that we run longer inventories, so on an average you see the impact in the years to come.

So the outlook there, in terms of leaf and clove, is pretty good.

The clove crops were fairly large so we could secure sufficient inventories at lower prices.

Our overall cost, as I said, all-in, including RRPs, should be in the range of 1%, probably slightly below.

So we see a moderation clearly in the cost going forward.

Now 1% of the total cost base, based on 2015, is $150 million.

That's what it is.

Secondly, on the iQOS, clearly when you launched in Japan and Italy you managed to secure somewhat favorable tax treatment of HeatSticks vis-a-vis combustible cigarettes.

I was wondering, given your recent launches, have you managed to achieve a similar sort of negotiated settlement with Switzerland and Russia and various other countries you have launched into?

Switzerland for sure.

Russia is still in discussion.

But in the vast majority of the markets we have launched, it's lower rates than cigarette.

And is that actually --?

Are you now actually pricing those HeatSticks below cigarettes or are you still actually pricing the same level in those markets?

At this stage we price at parity with Marlboro, except for Switzerland, where we are slightly lower, and in Russia, where we use Parliament and not Marlboro.

And we're above the normal Parliament price.

We work with different pricing models and different go-to-market models at this stage and clearly with larger tool of best practices.

So we accelerate future deployment and also improve cost efficiency as we become a bit more intelligent about how this product would be marketed.

Lastly, just can you give us an update on where the legal challenges are to plain packaging and, indeed, is there any update on the Ukrainian-led WTO dispute?

Okay, basically this year is an important year because, as you've mentioned, the pending cases.

We have WTO that the decision should come over the second half of the year and we have the UK High Court, which should rule before May, maybe earlier.

So we will know these important outcomes in the course of this year.

That's how we stand in terms of the pending cases at this stage.

Okay.

Is there anything to add to the sort of WTO dispute?

Has that been taken forward?

Sorry?

Is there anything to add with regards to the WTO dispute?

Has there been any particular (multiple speakers)?

No, it's a normal process that is followed.

There is a lot of interest from what we understand, but we are not in the proceedings, obviously, because it's between member states.

So we will see how this unfolds.

Okay, thank you very much.

Erik Bloomquist, Haitong Securities.

I was wondering if you could just comment on the outlook in Australia.

The prime minister has been talking about continuing the 12.5% excise tax increases that have dented Australian volumes.

Does that sound like a real risk or will there be some fiscal sensibility in the light of rising illicit trade in your view?

Thanks.

Look, there are discussions of this nature and clearly our explanations to the government is that they should put some stop in this out-of-cycle excise tax increases.

This year we have the last one.

Now, despite all these tax increases, which as you know are pretty substantial, because sometimes they are more than AUD1 per pack or 20s equivalent, the total market was down only 2.6% in 2015.

And I think that has remarkable elasticity.

Now, down-trading has continued, although recently at a lower pace, and as far as we're concerned, our share has stabilized finally.

We have increased our segment share for the discount segment, so we're in a position to influence the segment.

And essentially, I believe -- we also announced a price increase today in Australia.

So the way I see Australia is it has been a slight drag on our OCI this year, much, much less than last year.

Conservatively, we forecast another small drag next year, but we will see now how this pricing unfolds.

So that's the situation in Australia.

Obviously, our objective is not to have the excise tax increase out of the normal ones that are the CPI indexation.

Great, thank you.

Thank you.

I will now return the call to management for any additional or closing remarks.

Thank you very much.

That concludes our call today.

If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to the investor relations team.

We are currently in Switzerland.

As Andre mentioned earlier, next presentation will be at the CAGNY consumer conference on Wednesday, February 17, and that will be webcast as well.

Thank you all for joining us.

Have a great day.

Thank you.

That does conclude the Phillip Morris International fourth-quarter 2015 year-end conference call.

You may now disconnect.