菲利普莫里斯國際 (PM) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Philip Morris International fourth-quarter 2015 year-end earnings conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到菲利普莫里斯國際公司 2015 年第四季度年終收益電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Philip Morris International management and the question-and-answer question.

今天的電話會議計劃持續約一個小時，包括菲利普莫里斯國際管理層的講話和問答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Media representatives on the call will also be invited to ask questions at the conclusion of questions from the investment community.

（操作員說明）電話中的媒體代表也將被邀請在投資界問題結束時提問。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Nick Rolli, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Communications.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和金融傳播副總裁 Nick Rolli 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Welcome and thank you for joining us.

歡迎並感謝您加入我們。

Earlier today we issued a press release containing detailed information on our 2015 fourth-quarter and full-year results.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們 2015 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息。

You may access the release on our website at www.PMI.com or the PMI investor relations app.

您可以在我們的網站 www.PMI.com 或 PMI 投資者關係應用程序上訪問新聞稿。

During our call today, we will be talking about results for the fourth quarter and full year 2015, comparing them to the same period in 2014 unless otherwise stated.

在我們今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將討論 2015 年第四季度和全年的結果，並將它們與 2014 年同期進行比較。

A glossary of terms, adjustments, and other calculations, as well as reconciliations to US GAAP measures, are at the end of today's webcast slides, which are posted on our website.

術語表、調整和其他計算，以及與 US GAAP 措施的對賬，位於我們網站上發布的今天網絡廣播幻燈片的末尾。

Reduced risk products, or RRPs, is the term we use to refer to products with the potential to reduce individual risk and population harm in comparison to smoking cigarettes.

降低風險產品或 RRP 是我們用來指代與吸食香煙相比有可能降低個人風險和人口危害的產品的術語。

Today's remarks contain forward-looking statements and projections of future results.

今天的評論包含前瞻性陳述和對未來結果的預測。

I direct your attention to the forward-looking and cautionary statements disclosure in today's presentation and press release for a review of the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections or forward-looking statements.

請注意今天的演示文稿和新聞稿中披露的前瞻性和警示性陳述，以審查可能導致實際結果與預測或前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的各種因素。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Andre Calantzopoulos, our Chief Executive Officer.

現在我很高興介紹我們的首席執行官 Andre Calantzopoulos。

Jacek Olczak, our Chief Financial Officer, will join Andre for the question-and-answer period.

我們的首席財務官 Jacek Olczak 將與 Andre 一起參加問答環節。

Thank you, Nick, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝尼克，歡迎女士們先生們。

2015 was an excellent year for PMI.

2015 年對 PMI 來說是出色的一年。

Moderating declines in cigarette industry volume, notably in the EU region, coupled with market share gains enabled us to record a full-year organic cigarette shipment volume decline of only 1%, our best performance since 2012.

捲菸行業銷量的緩和下降，尤其是在歐盟地區，加上市場份額的增加，使我們錄得全年有機捲煙出貨量僅下降 1%，這是我們自 2012 年以來的最佳表現。

Of particular note were the performances of Marlborough and L&M, which grew cigarette volumes by 0.9% and 3.9%, respectively.

特別值得一提的是 Marlborough 和 L&M 的表現，它們的捲煙銷量分別增長了 0.9% 和 3.9%。

Strong pricing across all regions, combined with substantially lower unfavorable volume mix compared to recent years, resulted in net revenue and adjusted OCI growth, excluding currency and acquisitions, of 5.8% and 6.6%, respectively.

所有地區的強勁定價，加上與近幾年相比大幅減少的不利銷量組合，導致淨收入和調整後的 OCI 增長（不包括貨幣和收購）分別為 5.8% 和 6.6%。

Despite significant incremental investments behind both iQOS and our cigarette brand portfolio announced last July and disclosed in today's press release, our adjusted OCI margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 42.6%, excluding currency and acquisitions.

儘管去年 7 月宣布並在今天的新聞稿中披露了 iQOS 和我們的捲煙品牌組合背後的大量增量投資，但我們調整後的 OCI 利潤率增加了 0.3 個百分點至 42.6%，不包括貨幣和收購。

The increase was driven by EEMA and Latin America and Canada regions.

這一增長是由 EEMA 以及拉丁美洲和加拿大地區推動的。

Our adjusted diluted EPS, excluding currency, grew by a very strong 12%, at the high end of the raised guidance range that we reaffirmed last November.

我們調整後的攤薄每股收益（不包括貨幣）增長非常強勁，達到 12%，處於我們去年 11 月重申的上調指導範圍的高端。

The strengthening of the US dollar against virtually all of our key operating currencies was an unprecedented headwind for our business in 2015 and resulted in a full-year adverse currency impact of $1.20 on our adjusted diluted EPS.

美元兌我們幾乎所有主要運營貨幣的升值對我們 2015 年的業務造成了前所未有的不利影響，並導致全年對我們調整後的攤薄每股收益產生 1.20 美元的不利貨幣影響。

In the fourth quarter, our organic cigarette volume declined by 2.4% due to lower cigarette industry volumes and lower market share, notably in the Asia region.

第四季度，我們的有機捲煙銷量下降了 2.4%，這是由於捲菸行業銷量下降和市場份額下降，尤其是在亞洲地區。

Our cigarette volume was impacted by a one-time distributor inventory adjustment in Russia related to supply chain optimization.

我們的捲煙銷量受到俄羅斯與供應鏈優化相關的一次性經銷商庫存調整的影響。

Excluding this adjustment, our quarterly volume decline was in line with that of the full year.

排除這一調整，我們的季度銷量下降與全年一致。

Net revenues increased by 4% excluding currency, with favorable pricing across all regions more than offsetting unfavorable volume mix, mainly the EEMA and Latin America & Canada regions.

不包括貨幣在內的淨收入增長了 4%，所有地區的優惠定價都足以抵消不利的銷量組合，主要是 EEMA 以及拉丁美洲和加拿大地區。

As previously communicated, our incremental investments in 2015 were concentrated in the fourth quarter.

如前所述，我們 2015 年的增量投資集中在第四季度。

This resulted in currency-neutral adjusted OCI and adjusted diluted EPS declines in the quarter.

這導致本季度貨幣中性調整後 OCI 和調整後攤薄每股收益下降。

Our full-year 2015 results confirm that our business fundamentals are strong and the incremental investments that we made throughout the year, and in the fourth quarter in particular, should further reinforce our momentum in 2016.

我們的 2015 年全年業績證實，我們的業務基本面強勁，我們全年進行的增量投資，尤其是在第四季度，應該會進一步加強我們在 2016 年的發展勢頭。

Our reported diluted EPS guidance for 2016, at prevailing exchange rates, is a range of $4.25 to $4.35 versus $4.42 in 2015 and includes an unfavorable currency impact of approximately $0.60.

我們報告的 2016 年攤薄後每股收益指引按現行匯率計算為 4.25 美元至 4.35 美元，而 2015 年為 4.42 美元，其中包括約 0.60 美元的不利貨幣影響。

This guidance represents a growth rate, excluding currency, of approximately 10% to 12% compared to an adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42 in 2015.

與 2015 年 4.42 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益相比，該指引表示增長率（不包括貨幣）約為 10% 至 12%。

This reflects a currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth rate above our mid to long-term algorithm.

這反映出貨幣中性調整後的 OCI 增長率高於我們的中長期算法。

Importantly, this guidance does not include any share repurchases.

重要的是，本指南不包括任何股票回購。

We'll revisit the potential for repurchases as the year unfolds depending on the currency environment.

隨著時間的推移，我們將根據貨幣環境重新審視回購的可能性。

The $0.60 of unfavorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, included in our 2016 guidance is driven primarily by the Argentine peso, Indonesian rupee, Japanese yen, and Russian ruble.

我們 2016 年指引中包含的 0.60 美元的不利貨幣影響（按現行匯率計算）主要由阿根廷比索、印度尼西亞盧比、日元和俄羅斯盧布推動。

These four currencies account for around 60% of the total impact.

這四種貨幣約佔總影響的 60%。

We have currently hedged approximately 72% of our 2016 forecast sales to Japan, which, at prevailing exchange rates, translates to an effective rate of JPY118 to the US dollar versus JPY110 in 2015.

我們目前已對沖約 72% 的 2016 年日本預測銷售額，按現行匯率計算，2015 年兌美元的有效匯率為 118 日元兌 110 日元。

Pricing was the key driver of our full-year 2015 financial performance.

定價是我們 2015 年全年財務業績的主要驅動力。

We recorded a total pricing variance of $2.1 billion, supported by strong contributions from all four regions.

在所有四個地區的強大貢獻的支持下，我們記錄的總定價差異為 21 億美元。

As a reminder, this variance includes an exceptional gain in Korea related to inventories built ahead of the January 2015 excise tax increase, which will not recur in 2016.

提醒一下，這種差異包括韓國在 2015 年 1 月消費稅上調之前建立的庫存相關的特殊收益，2016 年不會再發生。

This year, we anticipate a pricing variance of around 6% of our 2015 revenues.

今年，我們預計 2015 年收入的定價差異約為 6%。

Our performance in 2015 was underpinned by an improving cigarette industry volume trend and continued market share momentum.

我們 2015 年的業績得到了捲菸行業銷量趨勢改善和市場份額持續增長勢頭的支撐。

We estimate that international cigarette industry volume, excluding China and the US, declined by 2.4% in 2015, a further moderation compared to the declines in 2013 and 2014.

我們估計，不包括中國和美國在內的國際捲菸行業銷量在 2015 年下降了 2.4%，與 2013 年和 2014 年的降幅相比進一步放緩。

For this year we forecast a decline of 2% to 2.5% on the same basis.

對於今年，我們預測在同一基礎上下降 2% 至 2.5%。

Our continued market share momentum in 2015 is clearly demonstrated on this slide with international share, excluding China and the US, up by 0.2 points to 28.7% and share growth in the EU, EEMA, and Latin America & Canada regions.

我們在 2015 年的持續市場份額勢頭在這張幻燈片上得到了清楚的體現，國際份額（不包括中國和美國）上升 0.2 個百分點至 28.7%，並且在歐盟、EEMA 以及拉丁美洲和加拿大地區的份額增長。

Our share in the Asia region was stable.

我們在亞洲地區的份額穩定。

Marlboro was a key driver of market share momentum in 2015, increasing its international share, excluding China and the US, by 0.2 points to 9.6%.

萬寶路是 2015 年市場份額勢頭的主要推動力，其國際份額（不包括中國和美國）增加 0.2 個百分點至 9.6%。

The brand had growing or stable share in all four regions and continued to benefit from the rollout of Architecture 2.0, which is now approaching 100 markets worldwide.

該品牌在所有四個地區的份額都在增長或穩定，並繼續受益於 Architecture 2.0 的推出，該產品目前已接近全球 100 個市場。

Importantly, our 2015 share in the top 30 PMI OCI markets grew by 0.7 points to 38%, with share up or essentially flat in 20 of these markets.

重要的是，我們 2015 年在前 30 個 PMI OCI 市場中的份額增長了 0.7 個百分點，達到 38%，其中 20 個市場的份額上升或基本持平。

This underscores the positive momentum of our business across the majority of our most profitable market.

這凸顯了我們業務在我們大部分最賺錢的市場中的積極勢頭。

While pricing and market share gains are the foundation of our top-line growth, we remain focused on effectively managing our cost base.

雖然定價和市場份額的增長是我們收入增長的基礎，但我們仍然專注於有效管理我們的成本基礎。

Our mid-term targeted annual cost base increase is 1% to 3%, excluding RRPs and currency.

我們的中期目標年度成本基數增幅為 1% 至 3%，不包括建議零售價和貨幣。

In 2015, we decided to deploy additional investments, some of which will not recur in 2016, to support the strong momentum of our cigarette brand portfolio and accelerate the geographic expansion of iQOS.

2015 年，我們決定部署額外投資，其中一些不會在 2016 年再次發生，以支持我們捲菸品牌組合的強勁勢頭並加速 iQOS 的地域擴張。

This resulted in a total cost base increase, excluding currency, of 3.6% excluding RRPs or 5.3% including RRPs.

這導致總成本基礎增加（不包括貨幣）3.6%（不包括建議零售價）或 5.3%（包括建議零售價）。

In 2016, we expect our total cost base, including RRPs, to increase by approximately 1% excluding currency, reflecting productivity and cost-saving programs and also held by the moderating prices for key inputs such as tobacco leaf, clove, and non-tobacco materials.

2016 年，我們預計我們的總成本基數（包括建議零售價）將增加約 1%（不包括貨幣），這反映了生產力和成本節約計劃，並且還受到菸葉、丁香和非煙草等關鍵投入品價格下降的影響材料。

Let me know discuss our performance in key geographies, beginning with the EU region.

讓我知道討論我們在關鍵地區的表現，首先是歐盟地區。

Following declines of 7.3% and 3.1% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, there was a further moderation in the total cigarette industry volume decline to 0.9% to 2015.

繼 2013 年和 2014 年分別下降 7.3% 和 3.1% 之後，到 2015 年，捲菸行業總銷量下降進一步放緩至 0.9%。

We attribute the moderation to improving economies, notably southern Europe; a decline in the prevalence of illicit trade; less out switching to the fine cut category; and a lower prevalence of e-vapor products.

我們將這種放緩歸因於經濟的改善，尤其是南歐；非法貿易盛行率下降；減少切換到精細切割類別；電子蒸汽產品的普及率較低。

Our positive cigarette share momentum in the region continued in 2015, with fourth-quarter and full-year share up by 0.3 points and 0.1 point, respectively.

2015 年，我們在該地區的捲煙份額繼續保持積極勢頭，第四季度和全年份額分別上升 0.3 個百分點和 0.1 個百分點。

In the fourth quarter, our share increased in five of the six largest markets by cigarette industry volume, demonstrating the breadth of our shares trend.

第四季度，我們在捲菸行業銷量最大的六個市場中的五個市場中的份額有所增加，顯示了我們的份額趨勢的廣度。

As we have anticipated, our share in Italy was adversely impacted by the decline of Marlboro following its crossing of the EUR5 per pack price point in the first quarter of 2015.

正如我們所預期的那樣，我們在意大利的份額受到萬寶路在 2015 年第一季度突破每包 5 歐元價格點後價格下跌的不利影響。

Marlboro, L&M, and Chesterfield further reinforced their positions as the region's top three cigarette industry brands by volume for the second consecutive year.

萬寶路、L&M 和切斯特菲爾德連續第二年進一步鞏固了其作為該地區捲菸行業前三大品牌的地位。

Full-year market share for Marlboro increased by 0.2 points to 18.9%, driven by strong performances in France, Germany, and Spain.

在法國、德國和西班牙的強勁表現推動下，萬寶路的全年市場份額增長了 0.2 個百分點，達到 18.9%。

Share for L&M increased by 0.1 points to 6.9%, while Chesterfield grew by 0.2 share points to 5.8%.

L&M 的份額增長 0.1 個百分點至 6.9%，而切斯特菲爾德的份額增長 0.2 個百分點至 5.8%。

The moderating cigarette industry volume decline, coupled with our market share gains and strong pricing, resulted in adjusted OCI growth, excluding currency and acquisitions, of 4.6% in the EU region in 2015.

捲菸行業銷量下降放緩，加上我們的市場份額增加和定價強勁，導致 2015 年歐盟地區調整後的 OCI 增長 4.6%（不包括貨幣和收購）。

This marked the region's first adjusted OCI increase on the same basis since 2009.

這標誌著該地區自 2009 年以來首次在同一基礎上調整後的 OCI 增長。

In 2016, we forecast mid single-digit currency-neutral adjusted OCI growth in the region.

2016 年，我們預測該地區經貨幣中性調整後的 OCI 將實現中等個位數增長。

I will now turn to Russia, the largest market in our EEMA region, where estimated cigarette industry volume declined by 8.4% in the fourth quarter and 6.2% for the full year.

我現在要談談俄羅斯，這是我們 EEMA 地區最大的市場，估計第四季度捲菸行業銷量下降 8.4%，全年下降 6.2%。

The declines were mainly due to significant excise tax-driven retail price increases, which we estimate averaged more than 20% year over year, as well as lower consumer purchasing power.

下降的主要原因是消費稅驅動的零售價格大幅上漲，我們估計零售價格平均同比上漲 20% 以上，以及消費者購買力下降。

Our full-year 2015 market share increased by 0.9 points to 28.4%, driven mainly by low price Bond Street and super-low price Next, which benefited from adult smoker down-trading and a wider distribution, particularly in the eastern part of the country.

我們的 2015 年全年市場份額增長 0.9 個百分點至 28.4%，主要受低價 Bond Street 和超低價 Next 的推動，這得益於成人煙民降價交易和更廣泛的分銷，特別是在該國東部地區.

Importantly, Parliament was up by 0.2 share points, despite the overall premium segment decline of 0.7 points.

重要的是，Parliament 的股價上漲了 0.2 個百分點，儘管整體保費板塊下跌了 0.7 個百分點。

In January this year, the government implemented its planned 2016 excise tax increase, resulting in an average tax pass-on of around RUB10 per pack, or 14%, on an industry-weighted average basis.

今年 1 月，政府實施了 2016 年提高消費稅的計劃，導致平均每包稅收轉嫁約 10 盧布，或 14%，按行業加權平均數計算。

In anticipation, we announced retail selling price increases across the majority of our portfolio of RUB5 per pack last November and a further RUB5 per pack this January, with the most recent increase likely to appear at retail in the second quarter.

出於預期，我們去年 11 月宣布我們大部分產品組合的零售價上調，每包 5 盧布，今年 1 月進一步上調每包 5 盧布，最近的漲價可能出現在第二季度的零售中。

Estimated cigarette industry volume in Turkey grew by 7.8% in the fourth quarter and 9% for the full year.

預計土耳其捲菸業銷量在第四季度增長 7.8%，全年增長 9%。

This exceptional growth was driven mainly by a significant reduction in the prevalence of illicit trade, which declined by over 5 percentage points to around 14% in 2015.

這一異常增長主要是由於非法貿易的普遍性顯著下降，2015 年下降了 5 個百分點以上，達到 14% 左右。

Our market share in Turkey has strengthened with three quarters of sequential growth.

我們在土耳其的市場份額已經連續三個季度增長。

Fourth-quarter share increased by 0.3 points to 44.2% and was driven by the superb performance of Marlboro, up by 1.2 points to 9.9%.

第四季度的份額增長 0.3 個百分點至 44.2%，這得益於萬寶路的出色表現，增長 1.2 個百分點至 9.9%。

Marlboro shipment volume increased by 20.6% in the quarter.

本季度萬寶路的發貨量增長了 20.6%。

In January, the government increased the specific excise tax and the minimum excise tax, while leaving the ad valorem rate unchanged, representing a further improvement in the excise tax structure.

1月，政府提高從量稅和最低消費稅，同時保持從價稅率不變，消費稅結構進一步改善。

This resulted in a pass-on of around TRY0.40 per pack at the retail level.

這導致在零售層面每包轉嫁大約 TRY0.40。

We implemented the retail selling price increase of TRY1 per pack across the majority of our portfolio, thus enhancing unit margin.

我們對大部分產品組合實施了每包 1 土耳其里拉的零售價格上調，從而提高了單位利潤率。

I will now touch on our Asia region, beginning with Indonesia, where estimated cigarette industry volume was stable in 2015, in line with our forecast and primarily due to the soft economy.

我現在談談我們的亞洲地區，首先是印度尼西亞，該地區 2015 年捲菸業銷量估計穩定，這與我們的預測一致，主要是由於經濟疲軟。

While market share in the fourth quarter declined by 1 point to 34.3%, reflecting the impact of retail price increases on our machine-made kretek brand taken in advance of the January 2016 excise tax increase, our full-year market share grew slightly to 35%.

雖然第四季度的市場份額下降了 1 個百分點至 34.3%，反映了在 2016 年 1 月消費稅增加之前零售價格上漲對我們的機制丁香煙品牌的影響，但我們的全年市場份額略有增長至 35 %。

On an industry-weighted average basis, the 2016 excise tax increase is around 15%.

按行業加權平均計算，2016 年消費稅增幅約為 15%。

Despite the muted performance of the total market last year, we remain very optimistic about the profit growth opportunities in this key market thanks to its growing adult population and rising income levels.

儘管去年整個市場表現平平，但由於成年人口不斷增長和收入水平不斷提高，我們對這個關鍵市場的利潤增長機會仍然非常樂觀。

In the Philippines, price gaps narrowed further in the fourth quarter, following price increases at the bottom of the market.

在菲律賓，隨著市場底部價格上漲，第四季度價格差距進一步縮小。

The gap between Marlboro and the super-low price brands of our primary local competitor now stands at around PHP1 per cigarette, a narrowing of PHP0.50 per cigarette, or 33%, since December 2014.

萬寶路與我們當地主要競爭對手的超低價品牌之間的差距目前約為每支香煙 PHP1，自 2014 年 12 月以來每支香煙縮小了 PHP0.50，即 33%。

The improved price gaps have been a key driver of our strong share performance.

價格差距的縮小一直是我們強勁股價表現的關鍵驅動因素。

Based on Nielsen retail audit data, our full-year 2015 share increased by 1.4 points to 73.4%.

根據尼爾森零售審計數據，我們 2015 年全年的份額增加了 1.4 個百分點，達到 73.4%。

Marlboro was the primary driver of the share gain, increasing by an impressive 2.7 points to 21.1%.

萬寶路是份額增長的主要推動力，增長了 2.7 個百分點，達到 21.1%，令人印象深刻。

Fortune also gained share, growing by 0.7 points to 31.1%.

財富也增加了份額，增長了 0.7 個百分點，達到 31.1%。

Marlboro shipment volume increased by 18.8% in 2015 and drove favorable mix.

2015 年萬寶路出貨量增長 18.8%，推動了有利的組合。

Encouragingly, we continue to improve profitability in this important market.

令人鼓舞的是，我們繼續提高這一重要市場的盈利能力。

In Japan, cigarette industry volume declined by 2.1% in 2015.

在日本，捲菸行業銷量在 2015 年下降了 2.1%。

This was less than what we had anticipated, due mainly to trade inventory build-up for competitors' recent new launches.

這低於我們的預期，主要是由於競爭對手最近新推出的貿易庫存增加。

Our cigarette market share performance was clearly below our expectations.

我們的捲煙市場份額表現明顯低於我們的預期。

Share declined by 0.6 points to 25.3% in 2015, due primarily to competitors' offerings in the new differentiated menthol taste segment.

2015 年份額下降 0.6 個百分點至 25.3%，這主要是由於競爭對手在新的差異化薄荷醇口味細分市場中提供的產品。

Nevertheless, we remain confident in the long-term outlook from our cigarette brand portfolio in Japan.

儘管如此，我們仍然對我們在日本的捲煙品牌組合的長期前景充滿信心。

Turning to our Reduced-Risk Product portfolio, let me briefly highlight the progress that we made in 2015 on the commercialization of iQOS.

談到我們的低風險產品組合，讓我簡要強調一下我們在 2015 年在 iQOS 商業化方面取得的進展。

During the year, we expanded the geographic presence of iQOS in our 2014 city launch markets, with the first wave of expansion in Japan reaching over 60% of the adult smoker population and the initial expansion in Italy beyond Milan to Modena, Rome, and Turin.

在這一年裡，我們擴大了 iQOS 在 2014 年推出的城市市場的地理分佈，第一波擴張在日本覆蓋了 60% 以上的成年吸煙者，並在意大利初步擴張到米蘭以外的摩德納、羅馬和都靈.

We also launched iQOS in major cities across Switzerland and commenced city launches in Bucharest, Lisbon, and Moscow.

我們還在瑞士的主要城市推出了 iQOS，並開始在布加勒斯特、里斯本和莫斯科的城市推出。

By the end of 2016, we expect iQOS to be present in key cities in around 20 markets globally.

到 2016 年底，我們預計 iQOS 將出現在全球約 20 個市場的主要城市。

In Japan, which is by far are more advanced iQOS launch market in terms of geographic and adult smoker coverage, we estimate that there were over 130,000 fully or predominantly converted iQOS users by the end of 2015.

日本是迄今為止 iQOS 發布市場在地理和成人吸煙者覆蓋方面更為先進的國家，我們估計到 2015 年底有超過 130,000 名完全或主要轉換為 iQOS 的用戶。

In the last week of December we achieved an estimated offtake share for Marlboro HeatSticks of 1.1% in the expansion area and 1.7% in Tokyo.

在 12 月的最後一周，我們估計 Marlboro HeatSticks 在擴展區域的承購份額為 1.1%，在東京為 1.7%。

Importantly, our weekly offtake shares have grown steadily since the expansion began in September.

重要的是，自 9 月開始擴張以來，我們每週的承購份額穩步增長。

Please note that offtake share represents retail sales volume for HeatSticks as a percentage of the total estimated retail selling volume for cigarettes and HeatSticks within a given geographic area.

請注意，承銷份額代表 HeatSticks 的零售量佔給定地理區域內捲煙和 HeatSticks 總估計零售量的百分比。

I look forward to sharing further the scientific and commercial progress that we have made with iQOS during our presentation at the CAGNY conference later this month.

我期待在本月晚些時候的 CAGNY 會議上的演講中進一步分享我們在 iQOS 方面取得的科學和商業進展。

I will now cover our free cash flow, which increased by over $300 million in 2015 to reach $6.9 billion.

我現在將介紹我們的自由現金流，它在 2015 年增加了 3 億多美元，達到 69 億美元。

This was a remarkable achievement considering the adverse currency impact of $1.9 billion on our net earnings and was fueled by important working capital initiatives.

考慮到 19 億美元的不利貨幣對我們淨收益的影響，這是一個了不起的成就，並且受到重要的營運資本計劃的推動。

As a reminder, the proceeds from the Sampoerna rights issue are not included in our free cash flow.

提醒一下，Sampoerna 供股的收益不包括在我們的自由現金流中。

In 2016, we forecast free cash flow broadly in line with last year's level, again despite the anticipated adverse currency headwind at prevailing exchange rate.

在 2016 年，我們預測自由現金流與去年的水平基本一致，儘管按現行匯率計算預期會出現不利的貨幣逆風。

We remain focused on rewarding our shareholders generously, with the dividend currently serving as the primary use of our free cash flow.

我們仍然專注於慷慨地回報我們的股東，股息目前是我們自由現金流的主要用途。

Last September we increased our annual dividend for the eighth consecutive year since the spin in 2008, representing a total increase of approximately 122% at a compound annual growth rate of 12%.

去年 9 月，我們自 2008 年分拆以來連續第八年增加了年度股息，總增幅約為 122%，複合年增長率為 12%。

Our dividend yield at the end of last week was 4.5%.

我們上週末的股息收益率為 4.5%。

This is very attractive in comparison to the yields of our peer group companies.

與我們同行集團公司的收益率相比，這是非常有吸引力的。

In conclusion, 2015 was an excellent year for PMI, reflecting improved cigarette industry volume trends and very robust business fundamentals.

總之，2015 年對 PMI 來說是出色的一年，反映了捲菸行業銷量趨勢的改善和非常穩健的業務基礎。

Our superior cigarette brand portfolio, supported by a unique commercial organization, is driving strong pricing and continued market share gains.

在獨特的商業組織的支持下，我們卓越的捲煙品牌組合正在推動強勁的定價和持續的市場份額增長。

Marlboro is performing extremely well with the continued rollout of the 2.0 Architecture driving volume and share growth.

隨著 2.0 架構的持續推出推動銷量和份額增長，萬寶路的表現非常出色。

We are very excited by our progress with the commercialization of iQOS, which is underscored by our favorable HeatStick offtake share momentum in Japan.

我們對 iQOS 商業化取得的進展感到非常興奮，我們在日本有利的 HeatStick 承購份額勢頭突顯了這一點。

Our strong free cash flow continues to support our generous dividend.

我們強勁的自由現金流繼續支持我們慷慨的股息。

Finally, the outlook for our business remains strong.

最後，我們的業務前景依然強勁。

On a currency-neutral basis, our 2016 EPS guidance reflects a growth rate of approximately 10% to 12% versus 2015 adjusted diluted EPS of $4.42.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，我們的 2016 年每股收益指引反映了大約 10% 到 12% 的增長率，而 2015 年調整後的攤薄每股收益為 4.42 美元。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Jacek and I will now be happy to answer your questions.

Jacek 和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）Matthew Grainger，摩根士丹利。

Good morning.

早上好。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

I just had two questions about pricing.

我只是有兩個關於定價的問題。

I guess first, Andre, I wanted to ask you about the pricing environment in Japan since Japan Tobacco has requested a price increase on Mevius.

我想首先，安德烈，我想問你日本的定價環境，因為日本煙草公司要求提高 Mevius 的價格。

So I was wondering whether you've made any similar requests on your portfolio or if you can talk us through how you are thinking about the opportunity there.

所以我想知道你是否對你的投資組合提出過任何類似的要求，或者你是否可以告訴我們你是如何考慮那裡的機會的。

Okay.

好的。

Clearly, the move from Japan Tobacco is encouraging, but you appreciate I cannot make any further comment on pricing in Japan, for obvious reasons.

顯然，日本煙草的舉動令人鼓舞，但你明白我不能對日本的定價做任何進一步的評論，原因很明顯。

Okay, but that, I guess, would confirm that you haven't made any formal requests yet?

好吧，但我想這會確認你還沒有提出任何正式請求嗎？

I didn't say that.

我沒有那樣說。

Regardless of what your intentions might be.

不管你的意圖是什麼。

Okay.

好的。

Then I guess just a broader question then.

那麼我想只是一個更廣泛的問題。

Your comments about the expectation for a 6% pricing variance this year implies about $1.6 billion in pricing, a bit below the $1.8 billion that we would typically think of as being sort of a mid-term target.

您對今年 6% 的定價差異預期的評論暗示定價約為 16 億美元，略低於我們通常認為的中期目標 18 億美元。

And I know that Korea accounts for a portion of that gap.

我知道韓國占了部分差距。

But if we exclude that, is there more an issue of rounding, or do you see the potential for a more moderate level of pricing across the industry this year in light of macroeconomic weakness?

但如果我們排除這一點，是否存在更多的四捨五入問題，或者您是否認為鑑於宏觀經濟疲軟，今年整個行業的定價水平可能會更加溫和？

Matt, as you rightly said, Korea is the biggest swing because it swings about almost 1 point of pricing variance year-to-year compared to our previous years' revenues.

馬特，正如你所說的那樣，韓國是最大的波動，因為與我們前幾年的收入相比，它每年的定價差異大約有 1 個百分點的波動。

Apart that, there is nothing particular here that we should be reading.

除此之外，這裡沒有什麼特別值得我們閱讀的。

So we are very confident about the pricing environment; I think it's very positive.

所以我們對定價環境非常有信心；我認為這是非常積極的。

And the excise tax environment is also positive, so not much change compared to the previous year.

消費稅環境也很積極，與上一年相比變化不大。

Okay.

好的。

Then I guess one other quick follow-up.

然後我想另一個快速跟進。

Just within Indonesia, you mentioned the impact of crossing some critical pricing thresholds during the fourth quarter.

就在印度尼西亞，您提到了第四季度跨越一些關鍵定價門檻的影響。

Is that a temporary price gap issue or something that could linger for a few quarters?

這是暫時的價格差距問題還是可能持續幾個季度的問題？

I think this is temporary because sooner or later others are crossing the critical points.

我認為這是暫時的，因為遲早會有其他人跨過臨界點。

Now that had more impact for us in this quarter.

現在，這在本季度對我們產生了更大的影響。

There is another phenomenon that is -- had a lot of increased activity, I would say, towards the end of the year in Indonesia, which is a number of competitive offerings that sell essentially 20 sticks per pack at the price of 16.

另一種現像是——我想說，到年底在印度尼西亞，活動大量增加，這是一些有競爭力的產品，每包基本上銷售 20 支，價格為 16 支。

Now these propositions typically are not viable longer term, because, if you remember, the excise tax in Indonesia is specific and on a per-stick basis.

現在，這些提議通常在長期內不可行，因為，如果您還記得的話，印度尼西亞的消費稅是特定的，並且是按每根棍子徵收的。

But, temporarily, you have some distortions because of these launches that should ease during the year.

但是，暫時，由於這些年內應該會緩和的發布，你會有一些扭曲。

So that's essentially how -- what happened in Indonesia in the quarter.

所以這基本上就是這個季度在印度尼西亞發生的事情。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks and congratulations on the results this year.

感謝並祝賀今年的成果。

Judy Hong, Goldman Sachs.

Judy Hong，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Andre, I wanted to get a little bit more color on the Russian market.

安德烈，我想在俄羅斯市場上多一點色彩。

Obviously the shipment number in the fourth quarter was negatively impacted by inventory movement, but I think your share also was a little bit softer sequentially.

顯然，第四季度的出貨量受到庫存變動的負面影響，但我認為您的份額也比上一季度略微疲軟。

So just wondering what's going on competitively; what are you seeing in terms of down-trading situations in terms of the consumers?

所以只是想知道競爭是怎麼回事；您對消費者的降價交易情況有何看法？

Then, if you look out for 2016, your view in terms of how the industry volume would look like in Russia.

然後，如果您展望 2016 年，您對俄羅斯行業總量的看法。

First of all, let's start with this inventory that has a little bit distorted the numbers of the fourth quarter overall.

首先，讓我們從這個稍微扭曲了第四季度整體數據的庫存開始。

So for PMI, essentially, it is a one-off adjustment because we decided to have our own warehouses in certain parts of the country, rather than our distributor, in order to facilitate distribution.

所以對於 PMI 來說，本質上，這是一次性的調整，因為我們決定在該國的某些地區擁有自己的倉庫，而不是我們的分銷商，以便於分銷。

And on top of it, it helps working capital.

最重要的是，它有助於營運資金。

So that is the reason we implemented, but there is no swings in there.

這就是我們實施的原因，但其中沒有波動。

That's one-off.

那是一次性的。

In terms of what's happening in the market, in terms of total market, we appreciate it's a bit difficult to forecast.

就市場上正在發生的事情而言，就整個市場而言，我們意識到它有點難以預測。

Last year we had forecasted that total market will decline by 9%.

去年我們曾預測整個市場將下降 9%。

We ended up much better.

我們最終好多了。

We forecast again, given the [magnitude] of the price increases another 9% this year.

考慮到今年價格再上漲 9% 的[幅度]，我們再次預測。

If we come out better, we will all be very happy.

如果我們表現得更好，我們都會很高興。

That's how I see the market.

這就是我對市場的看法。

Now in terms of down-trading, clearly there is down-trading.

現在就降價交易而言，顯然存在降價交易。

It's not dramatic.

這不是戲劇性的。

But we see, if we look at the year, 2% share shifting from the mid segment and premium segment to essentially the low price segment.

但我們看到，如果我們回顧這一年，2% 的份額從中端市場和高端市場轉移到低價市場。

Not the super-low, which is fairly stable.

不是超低，這是相當穩定的。

And we gain share in both premium, low, and super-low segments, so I think we are well positioned overall in this environment.

而且我們在高端、低端和超低端細分市場都獲得了份額，因此我認為我們在這種環境中總體處於有利地位。

Now, again, Russia, you know the economy is a bit weak.

再一次，俄羅斯，你知道經濟有點疲軟。

The ruble has devalued.

盧布貶值了。

But overall I think, in terms of portfolio position, we are in a very good place and we have already taken pricing, so I feel pretty good about Russia overall.

但總的來說，我認為，就投資組合地位而言，我們處於一個非常好的位置，我們已經進行了定價，所以我對俄羅斯總體感覺很好。

If the ruble was a bit less volatile than it is.

如果盧布的波動性比現在低一些。

Have I answered your questions?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes, that's helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

Then I guess my second question is just in terms of the investments that you made in 2015 and I guess, more specifically, lapping of that in 2016, because your comment that your cost base is still going up 1% year over year implies that the incremental investment is actually staying in the cost base in 2016 and so forth.

然後我想我的第二個問題只是關於你在 2015 年所做的投資，我想，更具體地說，是在 2016 年進行的投資，因為你的評論說你的成本基礎仍在同比增長 1%，這意味著增量投資實際上停留在2016年的成本基礎上等等。

So are these investments that you've made in 2015 still continuing as it relates to some of these iQOS commercialization or --?

那麼，您在 2015 年所做的這些投資是否仍在繼續，因為它與其中一些 iQOS 商業化有關，或者——？

Can you just give us a little bit sense of that lapping of that and costs still going up on a year-over-year basis?

您能否讓我們稍微了解一下這種重疊以及成本仍在逐年上升的情況？

Okay.

好的。

What happened is, first of all, the direction we gave for 2016 is 1% approximately up, including Reduced-Risk Products, where we have obviously incremental spending compared to 2015.

發生的事情是，首先，我們為 2016 年給出的方向大約增加 1%，包括降低風險產品，與 2015 年相比，我們在這些產品上的支出明顯增加。

That's the first item.

這是第一項。

And don't forget, our target is 1% to 3% per year, excluding RRP.

別忘了，我們的目標是每年 1% 到 3%，不包括建議零售價。

Just to facilitate your understanding, I would say that 40% of the incremental spending in the last quarter is non-recurring in 2016, roughly.

為了便於您的理解，我想說上一季度 40% 的增量支出在 2016 年大約是非經常性支出。

And we clearly had also quite substantial incremental spending on iQOS in the fourth quarter.

而且我們顯然在第四季度在 iQOS 上也有相當可觀的增量支出。

Now the non-recurring items relate to obviously the implementation of the Tobacco Product Directive in 2016, but some of the costs have to happen in 2015.

現在的非經常性項目顯然與 2016 年煙草產品指令的實施有關，但部分成本必須在 2015 年發生。

It's also some restructuring that we don't report on the reported but in the normal earnings, plus some one-off items.

這也是一些我們不報告但在正常收益中報告的重組，加上一些一次性項目。

So in total, that is what -- how I would see it.

所以總的來說，這就是我的看法。

I hope I helped you a little bit to understand.

我希望我能幫助你理解一點。

I guess what you're saying is that 60% of the incremental spending is still recurring, so you have that sold in 2016.

我猜你的意思是 60% 的增量支出仍然是經常性的，所以你在 2016 年就把它賣掉了。

And then, obviously, the 1% total cost base going up also still includes some of the commercialization spending related to iQOS that would be more incremental in nature.

然後，很明顯，1% 的總成本基礎上升還包括一些與 iQOS 相關的商業化支出，這些支出本質上會更加增量。

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

James Bushnell, Exane.

詹姆斯布什內爾，Exane。

Good morning, thanks for taking my questions.

早上好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I have two, please.

我有兩個，請。

The first was on pricing in Europe.

第一個是關於歐洲的定價。

Obviously, you've had a good year there and the outlook looks good in terms of OCI growth.

顯然，你在那裡度過了美好的一年，就 OCI 增長而言，前景看起來不錯。

But the pricing numbers seem to be a little softer than earlier in the year and I just wondered if you could give us some color around that please.

但是定價數字似乎比今年早些時候要溫和一些，我只是想知道你是否可以給我們一些顏色。

And then the second question was on the retention rates you are getting in iQOS.

然後第二個問題是你在 iQOS 中獲得的保留率。

The market share numbers you mentioned sound quite impressive, but I just wondered if the 30% retention rates you mentioned in the past was still consistent and how it was looking in Switzerland, for example, as well.

你提到的市場份額數字聽起來相當可觀，但我只是想知道你過去提到的 30% 的保留率是否仍然一致，例如在瑞士也是如此。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

In Europe, pricing in Europe is unchanged.

在歐洲，歐洲的定價沒有變化。

What will make some difference in the quarter is, if you remember, in Germany in 2014 we took pricing in the middle of the year towards the second half and in 2015 we anticipated earlier.

如果您還記得，2014 年在德國，我們在年中對下半年進行了定價，而在 2015 年，我們早前預計了定價。

So until the third quarter we had two overlapping annualization of pricing from previous year, 2014, and the pricing on 2015, which we didn't have in the last quarter.

因此，直到第三季度，我們有兩個重疊的年化定價，分別是上一年、2014 年和 2015 年的定價，這是我們在上一季度沒有的。

But as you know, we announced pricing in Germany, so we are back in the normal course.

但如你所知，我們在德國宣布了定價，所以我們回到了正常的過程中。

That will explain this.

這將解釋這一點。

Now I will give much more granularity about iQOS in CAGNY.

現在我將更詳細地介紹 CAGNY 中的 iQOS。

I don't want to steal the thunders of everybody, but the retention rates are much higher than the 30%.

我不想搶大家的風頭，但留存率遠高於30%。

And that's very encouraging in Japan, actually.

實際上，這在日本非常令人鼓舞。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, look forward to CAGNY.

好吧，期待CAGNY。

Thanks a lot for your answer.

非常感謝您的回答。

Bonnie Herzog, Wells Fargo.

邦妮赫爾佐格，富國銀行。

My first question is on the EU.

我的第一個問題是關於歐盟的。

How sustainable are the improved trends you've been seeing throughout the region?

您在整個地區看到的改進趨勢的可持續性如何？

And also, you continue to highlight a lower prevalence of e-vapor products in the EU, so I'm curious how much of a factor that has been to the improved combustible cig volume.

而且，您繼續強調歐盟電子蒸汽產品的普及率較低，所以我很好奇這對提高可燃捲菸量有多大影響。

Possibly these consumers have been switching back?

可能這些消費者已經轉回來了？

Look, I hope the trends in Europe are sustainable.

看，我希望歐洲的趨勢是可持續的。

While we forecast, it's early in the year, but from everything we know, including pricing, we think we may be a bit lower than last year, a bit higher decline, but well above actually our 2 to 3 secular decline that we anticipate.

雖然我們預測是在今年年初，但從我們所知道的一切來看，包括定價，我們認為我們可能會比去年低一點，跌幅高一點，但實際上遠高於我們預期的 2 到 3 次長期下滑。

So, to me, it looks fairly good in Europe.

所以，對我來說，它在歐洲看起來相當不錯。

And part of that is attributable, obviously, to a lower share of e-cigarettes, but also a little bit less illicit trade.

顯然，部分原因是電子煙的份額較低，但非法貿易也有所減少。

And I think maybe, because the economies also are improving, higher average daily consumption, which you don't see in the trends.

我想也許吧，因為經濟也在改善，平均每日消費量增加，這在趨勢中是看不到的。

But that explains part of the volume clearly.

但這清楚地解釋了卷的一部分。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then I have a question on your share repurchase program.

然後我有一個關於你的股票回購計劃的問題。

If you're FX headwind stays where it's at, say, for the next couple of quarters, is this an okay level for you to resume your share repurchases?

如果你的外匯逆風保持不變，比如說，在接下來的幾個季度裡，這是你恢復股票回購的合適水平嗎？

Or do you need these headwinds to reverse to be comfortable before you would resume your buyback?

或者在恢復回購之前，您是否需要扭轉這些逆風才能感到舒適？

I'm just trying to get a sense of what's going to give you comfort.

我只是想了解什麼能讓你感到安慰。

Is it more visibility or a lower headwind?

是更高的能見度還是更低的逆風？

Well, a lower headwind, obviously, because at current levels it makes no sense to resume share repurchases.

好吧，顯然阻力較小，因為在目前的水平上恢復股票回購沒有意義。

So once we see reversal, then we can revisit the issue.

因此，一旦我們看到逆轉，我們就可以重新審視這個問題。

And I hope we will see at some stage.

我希望我們會在某個階段看到。

Yes, agreed.

是的，同意了。

If I may ask just one final quick question on your Marlboro 2.0 rollout, can you give us a sense of what percentage of your Marlboro 2.0 has rolled out?

如果我可以就您的萬寶路 2.0 推出提出最後一個快速問題，您能否告訴我們您的萬寶路 2.0 推出的百分比是多少？

Is it complete I guess?

我猜它是完整的嗎？

And is there typically a lag before you see the full impact of this on your overall Marlboro share?

在您看到這對您的整體萬寶路份額的全面影響之前，通常會有滯後嗎？

Well, I think we are seeing the impact already.

好吧，我認為我們已經看到了影響。

All the indications we have from the markets, where we are already one or more years in the market, is all the fundamentals are improving.

我們從市場上得到的所有跡象表明，我們已經進入市場一年或多年，所有基本面都在改善。

The perception is improving; the image is improving, so it has worked very well.

觀念正在改善；圖像正在改善，因此效果很好。

Actually beyond what I personally expected.

實際上超出了我個人的預期。

I don't know exactly weighted where we are.

我不知道我們在哪裡。

In 100 markets I think 95% of the volume of Marlboro already or something like that, and everywhere we've seen positive results.

在 100 個市場中，我認為已經有 95% 的萬寶路或類似產品的銷量，而且我們在所有地方都看到了積極的結果。

If you remember, this is not just packaging.

如果您還記得的話，這不僅僅是包裝。

It's the whole communication of consumers, product improvements that were extremely well received by our consumers and also [competitors'] smokers.

我們的消費者和[競爭對手的]吸煙者都非常歡迎消費者的整個溝通和產品改進。

(multiple speakers)

（多個揚聲器）

Okay.

好的。

So trends are increasing.

所以趨勢在增加。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Chris Growe, Stifel.

克里斯·格羅，Stifel。

Good morning.

早上好。

Just one, first of all, in relation to volume, which did weaken a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter -- there are some unique factors that are leading to that and if you look at the strong performance in the first nine months -- as you move into 2016, you've indicated global volumes down about the same rate as they were last year.

首先，與銷量有關，第四季度銷量確實有所減弱——有一些獨特的因素導致了這一點，如果你看看前九個月的強勁表現——當您進入 2016 年時，您表示全球銷量下降的速度與去年大致相同。

Are there any markets in particular where we should kind of keep a watch out here?

有沒有我們應該特別注意的市場？

Thinking about the big ones of like Russia and Indonesia.

想想像俄羅斯和印度尼西亞這樣的大國。

Are those the ones you see being the weakest here to lead out the year, but improving throughout 2016?

那些是你認為今年最弱但在 2016 年有所改善的人嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If we look overall, clearly Russia, as I said, we have to make some assumptions.

如果我們從整體上看，顯然是俄羅斯，正如我所說，我們必須做出一些假設。

Last year we were a bit positively surprised.

去年我們有點驚喜。

I hope that's going to be the case, but we have to assume some decline in Russia.

我希望情況會如此，但我們必須假設俄羅斯出現了一些衰退。

So we assumed, as I said, around 9% at this stage.

因此，正如我所說，我們假設現階段約為 9%。

On the positive side, clearly, we have Korea because last year we had quite impressive decline, about apples-to-apples I would say 20%, which this year hopefully we're not going to see.

從積極的方面來看，很明顯，我們有韓國，因為去年我們的下降幅度相當可觀，大約是 20%，希望今年不會出現這種情況。

Clearly, we see improving trends during the year so that's on the positive side.

顯然，我們看到這一年的趨勢有所改善，這是積極的一面。

We had a good upside in Turkey last year because of the illicit trade reduction, plus increased consumption.

去年，由於非法貿易減少以及消費增加，我們在土耳其取得了良好的進展。

I don't think we're going to see the same increment in Turkey this year, obviously, but as the year unfolds we will know better.

顯然，我認為今年我們不會在土耳其看到同樣的增長，但隨著時間的推移，我們會知道得更多。

In markets where we are less impacted, clearly it's India that had a big decline last year because of excise and VAT increases.

在我們受影響較小的市場中，顯然是印度去年由於消費稅和增值稅的增加而大幅下滑。

But, as you know, we have minimal exposure there.

但是，如您所知，我們在那裡的曝光率極低。

And Brazil.

還有巴西。

Brazil is likely to continue this year obviously because we have a combination of VAT tax increases in certain states, because they have autonomy to decide about their VAT rates.

巴西顯然今年可能會繼續，因為我們在某些州有增加增值稅的組合，因為他們有決定其增值稅稅率的自主權。

And also an excise tax increase that comes in two tranches in Brazil, one in May and one in December.

巴西分兩批增加消費稅，一次在 5 月，一次在 12 月。

So that's where I see it.

這就是我看到的地方。

Now, Indonesia, again, is a bit early days.

現在，印度尼西亞再次有點早。

As you know, on one side we have a slightly soft economy.

如您所知，一方面我們的經濟略顯疲軟。

Price, the pass-on of the excise tax in the previous years have been about 5% on price increase equivalent.

價格，消費稅的轉嫁在前幾年已經相當於物價上漲5%左右。

This year it's 7.5%; not dramatic, but slightly higher.

今年是7.5%；不是戲劇性的，但略高。

And on the other side, we have -- on the positive side, we have minimum wage increases in the range of 11%.

另一方面，從積極的方面來看，我們的最低工資漲幅在 11% 左右。

So how this is going to pay at the end of the year is very difficult to predict.

因此，很難預測這將如何在年底支付。

Conservatively we have assume some decline, but we will see if that materializes or not.

保守地說，我們假設會有所下降，但我們會看看這種情況是否會發生。

And that's for the key markets.

那是針對主要市場的。

Okay, that was helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I just have one quick follow-up, which is in relation to generally the global macro uncertainty, some of the risks we've seen in some of these key markets, and you have some pricing going up at a healthy rate just due to excess tax pass-along.

我只有一個快速跟進，這與全球宏觀不確定性有關，我們在這些主要市場中看到的一些風險，並且由於過度，你的一些定價以健康的速度上漲稅收轉嫁。

Are you seeing any changes in elasticity?

你看到彈性有任何變化嗎？

Is it too early to tell for that?

現在說這個還為時過早嗎？

I'm just curious if we are seeing that weaker consumer reacting negatively to price increases in some of the key markets where you are taking those now.

我只是好奇我們是否看到較弱的消費者對您現在正在接受的一些主要市場的價格上漲做出負面反應。

Look, I must say that I am positively surprised by elasticities, rather than the opposite actually.

看，我必須說我對彈性感到非常驚訝，而不是相反。

They come more on our side than I thought.

他們比我想像的更多地站在我們這邊。

Now, again, some of the emerging markets we have to watch as the economy weakens, but we don't see any signs of this occurring at this stage.

現在，隨著經濟疲軟，我們不得不再次關註一些新興市場，但我們現階段沒有看到任何跡象。

And we will keep you abreast of how this is going during the year.

我們將讓您了解這一年的進展情況。

I think we baked this in our forecast for total markets in the year of 2 to [2.3].

我認為我們在 2 至 [2.3] 年的總市場預測中考慮了這一點。

(multiple speakers)

（多個揚聲器）

Okay, that's very encouraging.

好的，這非常令人鼓舞。

Have you said what percentage of your pricing you have in place already for the year?

你有沒有說你今年的定價已經到位的百分比是多少？

I would say about 50%, slightly higher than that at this stage.

我會說大約 50%，比現階段略高。

Okay, thank you for the time.

好的，謝謝你的時間。

Vivien Azer, Cowen.

薇薇安·阿澤，考恩。

Good morning.

早上好。

My first question has to do with Latin America in terms of the cadence of the local currency profit growth.

我的第一個問題與拉丁美洲當地貨幣利潤增長的節奏有關。

The profit growth had been quite robust for the first nine months of the year and it did decelerate, so I was wondering if you could just -- and on an easy comp.

今年前 9 個月的利潤增長相當強勁，但確實有所放緩，所以我想知道你是否可以——而且是在一個簡單的比較上。

So I was wondering if you could just expand on that a little bit, please.

所以我想知道你是否可以稍微擴展一下。

I'm sorry, I'm not sure --.

對不起，我不確定--。

I'm showing that you had very strong double-digit profit growth in Latin America in the first nine months of the year that ended up resulting in full-year very robust local currency profit growth.

我展示的是今年前 9 個月您在拉丁美洲實現了非常強勁的兩位數利潤增長，最終導致全年非常強勁的本幣利潤增長。

But in the fourth quarter your local currency profit growth was plus 1% so it's a big difference from what we have been seeing.

但在第四季度，你們的本幣利潤增長了 1%，所以這與我們所看到的有很大不同。

It's more a question of costs rather than in Argentina, and we had the Argentina devaluation as well that was reflected in the last quarter.

這更多的是成本問題，而不是阿根廷的問題，我們也有阿根廷貶值，這反映在上個季度。

But in terms of pricing, there is no difference.

但在定價方面，沒有區別。

We had regular price increases in Argentina.

我們在阿根廷定期漲價。

We are taking pricing in Mexico, but there is sometimes difference in timing of price increases, so that can explain some swings.

我們正在墨西哥定價，但有時價格上漲的時間有所不同，因此可以解釋一些波動。

I would not be reading these quarters with religiousness, I would say.

我會說，我不會虔誠地閱讀這些季度。

So the cost increase in Argentina is a one-time factor, or do we think -- is that something that kind of persists for the next three quarters?

因此，阿根廷的成本增加是一次性因素，或者我們認為 - 這種情況會在接下來的三個季度持續存在嗎？

More of the -- sorry, Jacek.

更多 - 抱歉，Jacek。

It's more of the one factor.

這更多的是一個因素。

You should also look for the Latin comparing the Q4 of the last year over 2014, because I think there was a different pattern of the shipments ahead of the tax price change in Mexico.

您還應該尋找與 2014 年第四季度相比的拉丁語，因為我認為在墨西哥的稅收價格變化之前有不同的出貨模式。

So this might shrink the number.

所以這可能會縮小數量。

Yes.

是的。

Understood, thank you very much.

明白了，非常感謝。

My second question has to do with the EU and with plain packaging.

我的第二個問題與歐盟和無裝飾包裝有關。

You called out some investments in the UK, but you also called out negative mix shift.

你呼籲在英國進行一些投資，但你也呼籲負面混合轉變。

So I'm wondering if you could just expand on some of the changes that you are making in terms of your go-to-market, as well as an update on the market landscape itself; if it's down-trading just in your portfolio or are we already starting to see down-trading in the UK?

所以我想知道你是否可以擴展你在進入市場方面所做的一些改變，以及對市場格局本身的更新；如果它只是在您的投資組合中進行減價交易，還是我們已經開始在英國看到減價交易？

Well, first of all in the UK, in particular with essentially taking back our distribution from Imperial.

好吧，首先是在英國，特別是從本質上從帝國收回我們的分銷。

So in the quarter, we had particular specific expenses due to this takeback, and double cost, obviously, because we are still paying Imperial and we are building up our own distribution.

因此，在本季度，由於這次回收，我們有特別的具體支出，而且成本翻了一番，顯然，因為我們仍在支付 Imperial 費用，並且我們正在建立自己的分銷渠道。

I don't see any acceleration in down-trading in the UK in terms of trends.

就趨勢而言，我認為英國的降價交易沒有任何加速。

And if we try to correlate this to plain packaging, clearly there's not yet plain packaging in the UK, I would say.

如果我們嘗試將此與無裝飾包裝聯繫起來，我會說，顯然英國還沒有無裝飾包裝。

But you know, in general, because I get very often this question: is the UK going to become Australia?

但你知道，總的來說，因為我經常收到這樣的問題：英國會變成澳大利亞嗎？

The first thing is the impact of plain packaging on Australia down-trading is extremely difficult to estimate, if any, because it's much more a question of pricing.

首先是無裝飾包裝對澳大利亞降價交易的影響是極難估計的，如果有的話，因為它更多的是定價問題。

Because if you remember, the margins at the bottom end of the market in Australia are still extremely high compared to the UK.

因為如果您還記得的話，與英國相比，澳大利亞市場底端的利潤率仍然非常高。

So I personally do not see an acceleration of the trends in the UK, even if eventually plain packaging is implemented, because there are already brands at very low margins at the bottom end of the market and I don't think we will see an acceleration of the trends.

所以我個人認為英國的趨勢不會加速，即使最終實施了無裝飾包裝，因為市場底部已經有利潤率非常低的品牌，我認為我們不會看到加速的趨勢。

Now in the EU in general, I don't see much down-trading here.

現在在整個歐盟，我看不到太多的降價交易。

Actually the premium segment is stable and we grew share with Marlboro.

實際上，高端市場很穩定，我們增加了萬寶路的份額。

So, overall, I'm very positive about the trends in the European Union.

所以，總的來說，我對歐盟的趨勢非常樂觀。

And do not forget that we have a portfolio with Marlboro, L&M, and Chesterfield that covers quite comfortably all price segments.

不要忘記，我們擁有萬寶路、L&M 和切斯特菲爾德的產品組合，涵蓋了所有價格段。

I think we are fairly confident about the prospects of the business in the European Union.

我認為我們對歐盟業務的前景相當有信心。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Lavery, CLSA.

邁克爾·拉弗里，里昂證券。

Good morning.

早上好。

I just wanted to come back to Japan.

我只想回到日本。

Can you confirm that I am reading this right?

你能確認我沒看錯嗎？

Your market share table in the release, that's just cigarettes?

你在發布的市場份額表中，那隻是香煙？

That doesn't include any sales from iQOS, that's correct?

這不包括 iQOS 的任何銷售額，對嗎？

This is correct.

這是對的。

So would it be closer to flat market share if iQOS were included?

那麼，如果將 iQOS 包括在內，市場份額是否會接近持平？

And where do you see iQOS taking share from?

你認為 iQOS 從哪裡搶占市場份額？

Is it more from your own brands or from competitors?

是更多來自您自己的品牌還是來自競爭對手？

Well, we would see obviously some correction.

好吧，我們顯然會看到一些修正。

We should not forget that, in particularly in the last quarter, there were competitive introductions in the market.

我們不應該忘記，特別是在上個季度，市場上出現了競爭性的介紹。

And clearly, because of the support of iQOS (technical difficulty) we expanded nationally we had no activities on our portfolio of cigarettes during that quarter.

顯然，由於 iQOS（技術難度）的支持，我們在全國范圍內擴張，在那個季度我們的香煙產品組合沒有任何活動。

So that explains both the comparisons in terms of competitive pipelining and us focusing on iQOS, the higher decline in the share.

因此，這既解釋了競爭管道方面的比較，也解釋了我們專注於 iQOS 的份額下降幅度更大。

Now from what we know today, approximately 40% of the people that switch and adopt iQOS come from our own brands, which is higher obviously than our market share in Japan.

現在據我們所知，大約 40% 的轉換和使用 iQOS 的人來自我們自己的品牌，這明顯高於我們在日本的市場份額。

But I hope this is correct, because we are primarily targeting our own consumers as well, and it's Marlboro.

但我希望這是正確的，因為我們也主要針對我們自己的消費者，而且是萬寶路。

So that is a little bit the proportion we see today: 40% coming from our portfolio and 60% coming from competitive brands.

這就是我們今天看到的比例：40% 來自我們的產品組合，60% 來自競爭品牌。

Does having iQOS in the market influence any of your thinking on pricing on your cigarette brands and maybe give you more flexibility there?

市場上的 iQOS 是否會影響您對香煙品牌定價的任何想法，並可能給您帶來更大的靈活性？

No, this is completely separate.

不，這是完全分開的。

I don't see anything.

我什麼也沒看到。

Okay.

好的。

Then just on Indonesia, the machine-made, full flavor certainly has been -- that segment has been gaining steam.

然後就在印度尼西亞，機器製造的、全味的肯定是——那個部分一直在獲得動力。

You called out machine-made in general as part of your momentum there, but certainly in full flavor you are underrepresented.

你大聲疾呼機器製造作為你動力的一部分，但肯定是你的代表性不足。

Can you be a little more specific on any of your progress there in gaining a bigger footing in that segment?

您能否更具體地說明您在該領域獲得更大立足點的任何進展？

Well, we are getting some part of the segment clearly due to the success of Dji Sam Soe Magnum and Blue, which are in that segment.

好吧，由於 Dji Sam Soe Magnum 和 Blue 在該細分市場中的成功，我們清楚地獲得了該細分市場的一部分。

We introduced last year U Bold, which is a full flavor extension of U Mild, that is doing well in the area that it was launched, and we plan to expand now nationally.

我們去年推出了 U Bold，它是 U Mild 的完整口味擴展，在推出的地區表現良好，我們計劃現在在全國范圍內擴張。

One of the things that shows the segment growing faster is that some of the introductions I described previously, 20 packs for the price of 16, are labeled as full flavor but they are more low-tar nicotine product.

顯示該細分市場增長更快的一件事是我之前描述的一些介紹，20 包的價格為 16，被標記為全味但它們是低焦油尼古丁產品。

So there is some artificial boosting of that segment.

因此，該細分市場有一些人為的提升。

But, overall, we are making progress in that segment and we have plans to further expand our presence in the segment clearly.

但是，總的來說，我們正在該領域取得進展，並且我們計劃明確進一步擴大我們在該領域的影響力。

Okay, that's helpful, thanks.

好的，很有幫助，謝謝

Then just lastly on margins.

最後就是利潤率。

Obviously, two years in a row now you've had significant spending increases in the fourth quarter.

顯然，連續兩年第四季度的支出都出現了顯著增長。

Obviously you've called out that some of the items are transitory, but can you give a sense of where margins go from here?

很明顯，您已經指出某些項目是暫時的，但是您能說明一下利潤率從哪裡開始嗎？

Do you expect a return to levels two years ago anytime soon?

您是否期望很快恢復到兩年前的水平？

Is there a little bit of a new normal?

有一點新常態嗎？

What's the right way to put the margin environment in context?

將利潤環境置於上下文中的正確方法是什麼？

As I said in my remarks, we expect OCI to grow above our 6% to 8% range next year, so obviously margins will expand.

正如我在發言中所說，我們預計 OCI 明年將增長超過 6% 至 8% 的範圍，因此顯然利潤率將會擴大。

And we expect and we're targeting margin expansion in every region.

我們期望並且我們的目標是在每個地區擴大利潤率。

So, yes, we will see a margin increase.

所以，是的，我們會看到利潤率增加。

And specifically, you said in every region as well?

具體來說，您是說在每個地區也是如此？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Bill Marshall, Barclays.

比爾·馬歇爾，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My first question, I just want to talk a little bit about your cash flow and allocation.

我的第一個問題，我只想談談你的現金流和分配。

As you highlighted in your prepared remarks, you've done a great job keeping your cash flow steady, despite the foreign currency headwinds.

正如您在準備好的發言中強調的那樣，儘管外匯逆風，您在保持現金流穩定方面做得很好。

If you take the midpoint of your EPS guidance for 2016 though, your dividend payout is around 95%.

不過，如果您採用 2016 年每股收益指引的中點，您的股息支付率約為 95%。

So I was just curious if there's a level where you start to get a little uncomfortable and what lengths would you go to on the dividend to just ensure that you could at least maintain, if not increase it slightly, like we saw last year.

所以我很好奇是否有一個水平讓你開始有點不舒服，你會在股息上花多長時間來確保你至少可以維持，如果不是像我們去年看到的那樣略微增加的話。

As we said, we will not decrease the dividend.

正如我們所說，我們不會減少股息。

So, yes, it is a high payout ratio undoubtedly, and given currencies, it will remain high for the next couple of years, no matter what.

所以，是的，這無疑是一個高派息率，而且考慮到貨幣，無論如何，它在未來幾年都將保持高位。

I hope over time as we grow profit and we grow cash flow, we will come back to more normal levels.

我希望隨著時間的推移，隨著我們利潤的增長和現金流的增長，我們會回到更正常的水平。

And if the currency stabilized, clearly we will recover much faster the return to normality I would say.

如果貨幣穩定下來，顯然我們會恢復得更快，我會說恢復正常。

But as we always said, dividends are sacrosanct and we will go to a large extent to maintain the dividend.

但正如我們常說的那樣，分紅是神聖不可侵犯的，我們將在很大程度上維持分紅。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Just out of curiosity, does the 65% payout ratio, over the long term obviously, is that still in play or is that something that has kind of been pushed out a little bit just given the currency situation?

出於好奇，從長遠來看，65% 的派息率顯然還在發揮作用，還是只是考慮到貨幣狀況而被推遲了一些？

This discussion about 65%, as I said, is a bit theoretical short term, because we will remain, no matter what happens, unless the currencies turn back to half of where they are today compared to dollar; turns to half.

正如我所說，關於 65% 的討論有點理論上的短期性，因為無論發生什麼，我們都會留下來，除非貨幣與美元相比回到今天的一半；變成一半。

Once that -- the situation becomes a bit more clear on the overall directionally, then we will revisit this payout ratio and we may want to modify it.

一旦 - 整體方向上的情況變得更加清晰，那麼我們將重新審視這個支付比率，我們可能想要修改它。

That's a kind of theoretical discussion today.

這是今天的一種理論討論。

Very good, thank you.

非常感謝。

Then just finally, I just wanted to dig a little bit into the Philippines.

最後，我只想深入了解一下菲律賓。

It sounds like you are happy with the progress there.

聽起來你對那裡的進展很滿意。

Even with volume down as much as it is for the category, it sounds like you are more than happy to trade the bottom-end volume for the share gains on Marlboro at the top end.

即使該類別的銷量下降幅度與該類別的銷量一樣多，聽起來您還是非常樂意用低端銷量換取高端萬寶路的份額收益。

So just curious if you could give a little bit of color on how you feel about the Philippines.

所以很好奇你是否可以就你對菲律賓的感受給出一點顏色。

Have we turned a corner there and we're going to continue to see improvement or is there still more work to do in that market?

我們是否在那裡轉了一個彎，我們將繼續看到改進，或者在那個市場上還有更多的工作要做嗎？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We definitely see improvement undoubtedly.

毫無疑問，我們肯定會看到改進。

Pricing at the bottom has increased.

底部價格上漲。

Compliance is increasing quite significantly.

合規性正在顯著提高。

The tax [stops] have helped.

稅收[停止]有所幫助。

And as the -- finally, as of next year, we are at the final stage of merging the two tiers, over time we have the possibility to unleash the profitability of the market also by growing Marlboro pricing.

最後，從明年開始，我們正處於合併兩層的最後階段，隨著時間的推移，我們也有可能通過提高萬寶路定價來釋放市場的盈利能力。

So overall the prospects are extremely good, in my view; touch wood.

因此，在我看來，總體前景非常好；摸木頭。

And it's pretty clear that with this kind of magnitude of price increases at the bottom, you will have some total market decline temporarily, because it's 50% price increase over a 1.5-year period.

很明顯，在這種底部的價格上漲幅度下，你會暫時看到整個市場的下跌，因為在 1.5 年的時間裡價格上漲了 50%。

So you would expect some market decline.

所以你會預計市場會下跌。

But overall I think it looks pretty good, as I said.

但總的來說，我認為它看起來不錯，正如我所說的。

Very happy with what's happening in the Philippines.

對菲律賓發生的事情感到非常高興。

Perfect, thank you very much.

完美，非常感謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Owen Bennett, Nomura.

歐文貝內特，野村證券。

Afternoon, guys.

下午，伙計們。

Just a quick one for me.

對我來說只是一個快速的。

Just wondering in terms of projections for Indonesian industry volumes next year, I know you were saying 1% to 3% over the medium term.

只是想知道明年印度尼西亞工業量的預測，我知道你說的是中期 1% 到 3%。

Just wondering if you could be a bit more specific now and for fiscal year 2016.

只是想知道您現在和 2016 財年是否可以更具體一些。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

As I said, it's a slightly different forecast Indonesia at the beginning of the year.

正如我所說，今年年初對印度尼西亞的預測略有不同。

My view is, yes, there is a little bit of pricing, higher pricing this year because of a higher tax.

我的觀點是，是的，有一點定價，今年由於更高的稅收而更高的定價。

Last year we had a 5% tax pass-on.

去年我們有 5% 的稅收轉嫁。

This year it was 7.5%.

今年是7.5%。

The economy is a bit softer, but on the other side, minimum wages went up 11%.

經濟有點疲軟，但另一方面，最低工資上漲了 11%。

So how this is going to unfold is difficult for me to forecast.

所以這將如何展開對我來說很難預測。

We've assumed conservatively some slight market decline.

我們保守地假設市場略有下滑。

Whether this materializes or not, we will know over the next few months as the pass-on of the prices evolves.

無論這是否實現，我們將在未來幾個月內隨著價格傳遞的演變而知道。

And that's how I see the total market for the moment.

這就是我目前對整個市場的看法。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Long term, you're right; that's the way we look at the market, 1% to 3% growth.

從長遠來看，你是對的；這就是我們看待市場的方式，1% 到 3% 的增長。

Cool, thank you.

很酷，謝謝。

Jon Leinster, Berenberg.

喬恩倫斯特，貝倫貝格。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早上好，先生們。

Just a question on costs.

只是關於成本的問題。

I think you mentioned earlier on that there was some favorable leaf cost assets, tow acetate, and packaging.

我想你之前提到過，有一些有利的葉成本資產、醋酸纖維束和包裝。

In dollar terms, could you give some indication of where those major costs are actually headed?

以美元計算，您能否說明這些主要成本的實際去向？

I think, overall, we see stability in leaf prices.

我認為，總的來說，我們看到菸葉價格穩定。

On clove prices we have some favorability year to year, but we should not forget that we run longer inventories, so on an average you see the impact in the years to come.

在丁香價格上，我們每年都有一些優惠，但我們不應該忘記我們的庫存更長，所以平均而言，你會看到未來幾年的影響。

So the outlook there, in terms of leaf and clove, is pretty good.

因此，就葉子和丁香而言，那裡的前景非常好。

The clove crops were fairly large so we could secure sufficient inventories at lower prices.

丁香作物產量相當大，因此我們可以以較低的價格獲得足夠的庫存。

Our overall cost, as I said, all-in, including RRPs, should be in the range of 1%, probably slightly below.

正如我所說，我們的總成本，包括建議零售價在內，應該在 1% 的範圍內，可能略低。

So we see a moderation clearly in the cost going forward.

因此，我們清楚地看到未來成本有所下降。

Now 1% of the total cost base, based on 2015, is $150 million.

現在，基於 2015 年，總成本基數的 1% 為 1.5 億美元。

That's what it is.

就是這樣。

Secondly, on the iQOS, clearly when you launched in Japan and Italy you managed to secure somewhat favorable tax treatment of HeatSticks vis-a-vis combustible cigarettes.

其次，在 iQOS 上，很明顯，當你在日本和意大利推出時，你設法確保了 HeatSticks 相對於可燃香煙的稅收優惠。

I was wondering, given your recent launches, have you managed to achieve a similar sort of negotiated settlement with Switzerland and Russia and various other countries you have launched into?

我想知道，鑑於你們最近的發射，你們是否設法與瑞士和俄羅斯以及你們發射到的其他國家達成了類似的談判解決方案？

Switzerland for sure.

肯定是瑞士。

Russia is still in discussion.

俄羅斯仍在討論中。

But in the vast majority of the markets we have launched, it's lower rates than cigarette.

但在我們推出的絕大多數市場中，它的費率低於香煙。

And is that actually --?

那實際上是——？

Are you now actually pricing those HeatSticks below cigarettes or are you still actually pricing the same level in those markets?

您現在實際上是將這些 HeatSticks 的價格定在香煙以下，還是實際上仍在這些市場上以相同水平定價？

At this stage we price at parity with Marlboro, except for Switzerland, where we are slightly lower, and in Russia, where we use Parliament and not Marlboro.

在這個階段，我們的定價與萬寶路持平，除了瑞士，我們的價格略低，而在俄羅斯，我們使用 Parliament 而不是萬寶路。

And we're above the normal Parliament price.

而且我們的價格高於正常的議會價格。

We work with different pricing models and different go-to-market models at this stage and clearly with larger tool of best practices.

在這個階段，我們使用不同的定價模型和不同的上市模型，並且顯然使用更大的最佳實踐工具。

So we accelerate future deployment and also improve cost efficiency as we become a bit more intelligent about how this product would be marketed.

因此，隨著我們對該產品的營銷方式變得更加明智，我們加快了未來的部署並提高了成本效率。

Lastly, just can you give us an update on where the legal challenges are to plain packaging and, indeed, is there any update on the Ukrainian-led WTO dispute?

最後，您能否向我們介紹一下無裝飾包裝面臨的法律挑戰的最新情況，事實上，是否有關於烏克蘭主導的 WTO 爭端的最新情況？

Okay, basically this year is an important year because, as you've mentioned, the pending cases.

好的，基本上今年是重要的一年，因為正如您所提到的，懸而未決的案件。

We have WTO that the decision should come over the second half of the year and we have the UK High Court, which should rule before May, maybe earlier.

我們有 WTO 的決定應該在今年下半年做出，我們有英國高等法院，它應該在 5 月之前做出裁決，也許更早。

So we will know these important outcomes in the course of this year.

因此，我們將在今年的過程中了解這些重要成果。

That's how we stand in terms of the pending cases at this stage.

這就是我們現階段對未決案件的立場。

Okay.

好的。

Is there anything to add to the sort of WTO dispute?

對於世貿組織之類的爭端，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Has that been taken forward?

有沒有推進？

Sorry?

對不起？

Is there anything to add with regards to the WTO dispute?

關於WTO爭端，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Has there been any particular (multiple speakers)?

有沒有特別的（多人發言）？

No, it's a normal process that is followed.

不，這是遵循的正常流程。

There is a lot of interest from what we understand, but we are not in the proceedings, obviously, because it's between member states.

據我們了解，人們對此很感興趣，但顯然我們不在程序中，因為它是在成員國之間進行的。

So we will see how this unfolds.

所以我們將看到這是如何展開的。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Erik Bloomquist, Haitong Securities.

Erik Bloomquist，海通證券。

I was wondering if you could just comment on the outlook in Australia.

我想知道你是否可以就澳大利亞的前景發表評論。

The prime minister has been talking about continuing the 12.5% excise tax increases that have dented Australian volumes.

總理一直在談論繼續提高 12.5% 的消費稅，這已經削弱了澳大利亞的銷量。

Does that sound like a real risk or will there be some fiscal sensibility in the light of rising illicit trade in your view?

這聽起來像是一個真正的風險嗎？或者在您看來，鑑於非法貿易的增加，是否會有一些財政敏感性？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Look, there are discussions of this nature and clearly our explanations to the government is that they should put some stop in this out-of-cycle excise tax increases.

看，有這種性質的討論，很明顯我們對政府的解釋是他們應該停止這種週期外的消費稅增加。

This year we have the last one.

今年我們有最後一個。

Now, despite all these tax increases, which as you know are pretty substantial, because sometimes they are more than AUD1 per pack or 20s equivalent, the total market was down only 2.6% in 2015.

現在，儘管所有這些稅收增加，如您所知，這是相當可觀的，因為有時每包超過 1 澳元或 20 美元等值，但 2015 年整個市場僅下降了 2.6%。

And I think that has remarkable elasticity.

我認為這具有非凡的彈性。

Now, down-trading has continued, although recently at a lower pace, and as far as we're concerned, our share has stabilized finally.

現在，下跌交易仍在繼續，儘管最近速度有所放緩，但就我們而言，我們的份額終於穩定下來了。

We have increased our segment share for the discount segment, so we're in a position to influence the segment.

我們增加了折扣細分市場的份額，因此我們能夠影響該細分市場。

And essentially, I believe -- we also announced a price increase today in Australia.

我相信，從本質上講，我們今天還宣佈在澳大利亞提價。

So the way I see Australia is it has been a slight drag on our OCI this year, much, much less than last year.

所以我對澳大利亞的看法是，今年它對我們的 OCI 造成了輕微的拖累，比去年要小得多。

Conservatively, we forecast another small drag next year, but we will see now how this pricing unfolds.

保守地說，我們預計明年還會出現小幅拖累，但我們現在將看到這種定價如何展開。

So that's the situation in Australia.

這就是澳大利亞的情況。

Obviously, our objective is not to have the excise tax increase out of the normal ones that are the CPI indexation.

顯然，我們的目標不是在 CPI 指數化的正常消費稅之外增加消費稅。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I will now return the call to management for any additional or closing remarks.

我現在將向管理層回電，以徵求任何補充或結束評論。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That concludes our call today.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to the investor relations team.

如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫投資者關係團隊。

We are currently in Switzerland.

我們目前在瑞士。

As Andre mentioned earlier, next presentation will be at the CAGNY consumer conference on Wednesday, February 17, and that will be webcast as well.

正如 Andre 之前提到的，下一次演示將在 2 月 17 日星期三的 CAGNY 消費者大會上進行，屆時也將進行網絡直播。

Thank you all for joining us.

謝謝大家加入我們。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

That does conclude the Phillip Morris International fourth-quarter 2015 year-end conference call.

Phillip Morris International 2015 年第四季度年終電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。